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recentanimenews · 4 years

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Licensing of the Monsters: How Pokémon Ignited An Anime Arms Race

"Hey, what do ya' got there? A rabbit?" Batman asks his mentor, staring at a video of Pikachu on a massive underground computer screen.

"It's a Pokémon," Bruce Wayne replies.

Five seconds later, Batman is shocked so hard by the tiny yellow creature that he ends up flying headfirst through another computer monitor (Using a clip from the "Blackout" episode of Batman Beyond, an episode that would've aired for the first time just days earlier.) It doesn't make much physical sense, but this bizarre 1999 crossover promo did establish two things: 1) Pokémon was coming to Kids' WB, and 2) Pokémon was important. So important that Batman actually took time away from obsessing over crime and vengeance to care about it.

Echoing a 1997 promo where the comedic Bugs Bunny let us in on the "secret" that the serious, dark Batman was coming to Kids' WB, it almost seems like a passing of the torch. Kids' WB, up until then, was a programming service chock full of classic Warner Bros. cartoon properties like Bugs, Daffy, Pinky, Brain, and various members of the Justice League — all animated Americana.

Pokémon wasn't a huge risk as the 4Kids Entertainment dub of the show had done well in broadcast syndication, they had plenty of episodes to work with (sometimes airing three in a row), and it was based on a game series that was already a worldwide smash hit.

But the show was ... different.

And it would end up changing cartoons as we knew them.

Part 1: Batman Jumps Ship

It's hard to think of a better scenario when it comes to appealing to kids than the one Fox Kids had with Batman: The Animated Series. Debuting in September 1992 and airing on weekdays just after school let out, it received immediate acclaim due to its moody, beautiful animation and storytelling that didn't talk down to anyone. Little kids could get into Batman throwing crooks around and adults could marvel at plots like the one where a former child actress with a medical condition that keeps her from aging takes her former co-stars hostage and ends up holding a gun, hallucinating, and sobbing into Batman's arms.

It did so well that Fox tried to air it on prime-time Sundays and though this was short-lived — turns out, Batman was no match for Ed Bradley on CBS's 60 Minutes — it solidified the show as "cool." This was a show that could hang with the big boys. You couldn't say the same of something like Spider-Man and His Amazing Friends.

And then, in 1997, it was gone. A five-year contract ran out and Batman leapt completely to Kids' WB, where a continuation of the show (the often even grimmer The New Batman Adventures) aired later that year. There, it joined Superman: The Animated Series in a one-two punch of programming called The New Batman/Superman Adventures. When it came to Kids' WB, competitors not only had to deal with the Merry Melodies crowd, they now had to face the World's Finest Heroes.

This, along with a departing Animaniacs, left Fox Kids with a gap in flagship programming. Sure it had various incarnations of the Power Rangers (which was still holding strong) and Spider-Man, but if you look back on 1998 programming, little of it would survive the year. Silver Surfer? Gone by May. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: The Next Mutation? Out by December. Casper? Dead in October. By May of 1999, Warner Media would announce record ratings thanks to Pokémon, while its competitors, including the Disney-led ABC, Fox, and even Nickelodeon, would suffer losses in the Saturday morning area. Pokemon would have the best ever series premiere numbers for Kids' WB at the time.

A chunk of that has to do with 4Kids Entertainment's (or to be more specific, 4Kids Productions) handling of the show. Again, Pokémon was a proven concept. If you love monsters, adventure, and collecting things, you'll probably find something to enjoy in the franchise. But the dub was particularly strong. For years, dubbing was seen as an inherently laughable thing in America, full of exasperated voice actors trying desperately to convince you that they weren't portraying three different characters, and lips that didn't match the dialogue. Entire Japanese series were reduced to laughing stocks in the U.S. because why focus on the lovingly created miniatures and top-notch tokusatsu action in Godzilla if one of the actors sounds weird?

But while Pokémon wasn't the first great dub, it was a remarkably underrated one. Veronica Taylor's work as Ash Ketchum was relatable, funny, and consistent. And Racheal Lillis, Eric Stuart, and Maddie Blaustein's turns as Team Rocket's Jessie, James, and Meowth gave us villains that could've easily been the most repetitive parts of the show — you can only try to capture Pikachu so many times before you should logically find a second hobby — but instead were one of the most entertaining aspects.

Aside from some easily meme-able bits — Brock's drying pan and jelly donuts, for example — Pokemon became a seamless addition to the Kids' WB lineup and would end up giving many fans a lifelong love of anime. And it was great for 4Kids, too, as in 2000, they would be number one on Fortune's 100 Fastest-Growing Companies.

Fox Kids wanted an answer to this. And it would soon find one.

Well, two.

Part 2: Monsters Rule

Saban Entertainment was no stranger to Fox Kids. They'd been the one to adapt Toei's Super Sentai into The Mighty Morphin' Power Rangers for American and international audiences, creating an unexpected sensation that combined monsters and martial arts. And in 1999, they nabbed Digimon Adventure, a series about kids that gain "digital" monster partners when transported to a "digital world," which had begun airing earlier that year in Japan. Based on a fighting virtual pet that had already been around for a few years, Digimon was a natural fit for an anime series and also a natural fit for a climate that was desperately trying to find the next Pokémon.

Renamed Digimon: Digital Monsters, it premiered in August of 1999. Of course, accusations followed that it was a Pokémon rip-off, considering that they were both about befriending terrifying laser critters, but they offered fairly different things. While Pokémon was more episodic, Digimon gave viewers a more Dragon Ball Z-esque experience (they were both Toei productions, too) with the titular monsters evolving and gaining "power-ups" due to fighting increasingly powerful villains.

Almost two months later, Monster Rancher would join the Fox Kids lineup, airing on Saturdays at 8:30 AM after Sherlock Holmes in the 22nd Century (a Fox Kids lost relic if there ever was one). Together, Monster Rancher and Digimon would cover the programming block with monster action, sometimes airing twice each. Meanwhile, Pokémon would do the same for Kids' WB, and if you look at their Saturday morning schedules from 1999 and 2000, it appears they just shoved Pikachu in whenever possible.

Looking back on Monster Rancher is always odd, though, because it's so specifically trapped in the time period where it originated. The video games used metadata from readable discs to create new monsters for the player, meaning that as soon as people gained the ability to download or stream media online without having to travel to their local Circuit City, the game would look absolutely archaic in comparison to its peers.

Monster Rancher is a very fun show based on some very fun games, and the dynamic array of personalities and their particular squabbles in the core group actually reminds me a lot of One Piece. But even the show itself deals with reviving monsters on giant stone discs — a prehistoric-looking adaptation of a video game gimmick that would, a decade later, appear prehistoric itself.

The Monster War was waged across 2000 and 2001. And though it appears Pokémon was the clear winner — in 2020, it's the most popular franchise with the widest reach, even if Digimon does produce some stellar shows and movies — the ratings tell a different story. In the May sweeps of 2000, Pokémon (and Kids' WB) took the prize among kids 6-11, but in the end, Fox Kids would score a victory of a 3.1 rating to Kids' WB's 3.0 (the first sweeps win since 1997, the year that Batman left.)

Early the following year, Fox Kids would score again, narrowly beating Pokémon on Saturday morning in the same timeslot and even coming ahead of properties like X-Men. And what would propel this February 10th victory? The first appearance of BlackWarGreymon, the Shadow the Hedgehog to WarGreymon's Sonic.

However, Pokémon would still help create ratings records for Kids' WB, even though late 2000/early 2001 saw a slide that would often cede dominance to Nickelodeon. Jed Patrick, who was president of The WB at the time said: "I didn't think Pokémon would fall off as much as it did ... every fire cools down a little, but that doesn't mean it doesn't stay hot."

Even though, in retrospect, claims that "Pokemania" had died seem a little ridiculous — the latest games, Pokémon Sword and Shield, just became the highest-selling entries in seventeen years — big changes were ahead.

Part 3: It's Time To Duel ... Or Not

In early 2001, Joel Andryc, executive VP of kids' programming and development for Fox Kids, was looking for a "Digimon companion series to create an hour-long anime block." He felt they were too reliant on Digimon, as they were airing it three times in a single morning. Likely not coincidentally, that summer Fox Kids Fridays were dubbed "anime invasion," advertising Flint The Time Detective, Dinozaurs, Escaflowne, and Digimon. In one commercial, a single quote zips across the bottom of the screen: "Anime Rocks!" Nicole, TX

That it does, Nicole from Texas.

Meanwhile, 4Kids Entertainment would provide Kids' WB with another monster show: Yu-Gi-Oh! Known as Yu-Gi-Oh! Duel Monsters in Japan, this anime adaptation absconded from retelling the stories found in the early chapters of the manga — which were mostly devoted to Yugi running into jerks, only to have his Egyptian spirit "alter ego" deal karmic retribution on them — and instead focused on the parts that involved the cool monster fights. So basically the parts that were the most like Pokémon.

But how would this be received? In 2000, Canadian studio Nelvana had licensed the anime Cardcaptor Sakura and turned it simply into Cardcaptors — an extremely edited version that removed many important relationships and plotlines and tried to streamline the show into a pseudo-Pokémon story. It's gone down in history as one of the most questionable dubs ever, and never really made a splash on Kids' WB. So they wouldn't want a repeat of that.

But would kids be into a card game? The cards did summon monsters, but in Pokémon and Digimon, the monsters are just there, moving around and not relegated to a glorified checkers board arena. It turned out, yes, kids would be REALLY into that. Yu-Gi-Oh! debuted at number one in multiple demographics in September 2001, and would remain a steady part of its lineup for years to come.

And how did Fox Kids respond? Did the "anime invasion" work out? Well, sort of, but not in the way they were hoping.

In 2001, due to diminishing ratings and audiences, Fox Kids Worldwide (along with Fox Family Worldwide) were sold to The Walt Disney Company. By November 7th, they'd canceled their weekly afternoon blocks, and the next year, they'd end up selling their entire Saturday morning block to a company that had provided their rivals with the very same TV shows that aided in sinking them: 4Kids Entertainment. The final show to premiere on the original Fox Kids was Galidor: Defenders of the Outer Dimension, a live action series that stood beside Alienators: Evolution Continues (a cartoon sequel to the mediocre 2001 comedy Evolution) and the underrated Medabots as the block's last gasp.

Renamed FoxBox in late 2002 (and later 4KidsTV in 2005), the 4Kids run schedule would, over the years, include anime like Kirby! Right Back At Ya!, Ultimate Muscle, Fighting Foodons, Sonic X, Shaman King, and eventually, in 2004, the infamous One Piece dub. The first Saturday of the new FoxBox lineup would also outdo the previous Saturday's Fox Kids lineup. Disney would acquire the rights to Digimon and it showed up on ABC Family in late 2001 (eighteen years later, a reboot of the original series would air, which can be watched on Crunchyroll).

Eventually, in 2007, the Monster War would come full circle. 4Kids Entertainment announced they would be taking over the Kids' WB Saturday morning block entirely, renaming it the "CW4KIDS," as The CW had been born after UPN and The WB had ceased to be. Pokémon was long gone by this point, having been dropped by Kids' WB in 2006, and was now overseen by The Pokémon Company International on Cartoon Network.

"We wish Pokémon USA much success going forward," the CEO of 4Kids Entertainment said. Later sued over "illegal agreements" regarding the Yu-Gi-Oh! franchise, the company would eventually file for bankruptcy in 2016. Pokémon Journeys, the latest installment in the franchise, launches on Netflix on June 12th.

Daniel Dockery is a Senior Staff Writer for Crunchyroll. Follow him on Twitter!

Do you love writing? Do you love anime? If you have an idea for a features story, pitch it to Crunchyroll Features!

By: [email protected]

#Anime #News #Latest in Anime News by Crunchyroll!

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kierongillen · 5 years

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Writer Notes: The Wicked + the Divine 43

Spoilers, obv.

Issue 44 comes out tomorrow at the time of writing. As I’m on the west coast of the USA, it will be just after midnight GMT by the time they’re online. So abstractly, this is the first time ever which we come out when the next issue is out. Abstractly. I’d say the day counts as where I am, and doesn’t Comixology come out a little later? We’ll see.

It’s also been so long that I almost wrote notes for issue 44. This is a weird goodbye, this period.

Anyway – Issue 43, wherein we finish explaining all the big stuff we’re going to explain.

I mean, there’s more in issue 44 and 45, but it’s all details, with the denouncement really being based around the characters’ response to this issue. They know the truth. Now what are they going to do about it?

That was the main note I gave in the script to the team – if there’s any really big questions you are confused about, now is the time to say, as this is the best clarification it’ll get. As such, we worked on it a lot to nail what we wanted to say – and what we didn’t. Sometimes this meant actually simplifying a little to avoid repeating huge amounts of stuff and leaving people even more confused. More often it involves sliding in a little nod to something someone would be thinking about.

It’s an interesting issue, I think. It’s where we show a lot of our hand.

It also involved a lot of crunching.

Jamie/Matt Cover

Cassandra finally gets her head cover. Normally a cover relates to a key beat, which isn’t true here – except in the widest possible sense that it’s where Cassandra gets to say I Told You So to everyone, including herself.

Jason Latour Cover One of the fun things about commissioning these covers is getting to see a creator’s process close up. Jason’s process on this was amazingly never-ending – he was always tweaking, and trying things and moving in a different direction. Where he ended was stunning – very him, and very WicDiv too. I remember us and the Jasons semi-jokingly about swapping books for an issue – they do WicDiv for an issue and we do Southern Bastards. This cover absolutely makes me wonder how amazing that hypothetical issue would have looked.

(Our story would have been about a Taylor-Swift-esque-singer/songwriter-before-she-got-big in the town. And probably murder, as it’s Southern Bastards, right?)

IFC

That “Life goes on” still creeps me out.

1-2

Opening vignette that lets us establish what Minerva’s plan is now, as well as re-establish Beth and her crew, and actually let us define their current position, and even give their codenames, which have existed in the Bible document since issue 1, I believe.

(Oddly, calling people “Boss” is one of my verbal ticks. It seemed fun to give it to Beth here.)

As such, Minerva immediately HiveMinding them when they’ve just stated their agency is plain harsh. Jamie’s large panel on page 2 sells it incredibly well – the statues, Minerva walking away from us – it’s all so casual.

It’s also the running theme of the issue – what Mini has been doing all these years. This is just a particularly direct example of it.

Three panels on second page to try and stress the seriousness of what this is (Space = Meaning, remember). Of course, as the issue shows, this isn’t the real part of the issue – but you have to at least believe this is a real gambit. And it is – I mean, it’d be awful if Mini pulled it off. But in people’s guts they’d realise this isn’t how WicDiv goes, right?

Minor glorious Matt Wilson note – the crackle of green in panel 3 is wonderful. Give that guy another Eisner. He deserves a hat trick.

Show time in the showbiz and the “time to show you everything” sense.

Establishing the stakes and situation for the heroes. There’s a draft of the issue I wrote which is a couple more pages long, which would have pulled this out a little more. In the end, we decided it worked better shorter – I’ll tell you why when I get there, and we could use the space elsewhere.

Key thing is showing some response to Cam’s actions at the end of last issue – it’s important to know that they haven’t just walked away, right?

In the first panel, the “identify who is speaking” is a tricky one. The “say the character’s name” is a little brutal move, and I avoid it. We’re not that book. Dio is easy – and Lucifer, bless her, is immediately identifiable by her idiom. Her line also reminds people of what she’s like, which sets up the last page.

Laura’s captions here again, doing a lot of the heavy lifting.

It says so much about this issue that the last two panels are only a half page total. These are big rock and roll images, presented in a tiny space. Jamie’s composition makes it land really well, selling the drama.

Page 5

It says even more that we did all this in a page.

Tara’s move in the original version was basically a page, but looking at it structurally it actually left it even more underwhelmed – a fight kicked off, and then heroes were losing, and then Tara does this cool thing, and they’re winning, before immediately the hive mind kicks in and they’re losing again. This does not sell the joy of Giant Woman.

This works better, not least for sheer audaciousness. I used to have a thing about tableau based storytelling – the idea that you can create a large image which people can explore and juxtapose it with a few captions to create a larger conceptual space. This is very much that.

“People treating people like meat” reminds me for the second time when re-reading this issue of the line from Pratchett: “Sin is treating people like things.” The first time was the puppets bit. I’d agree with Pratchett, clearly.

In the original draft of the script I had a line “You want more? Go re-read Rising Action” which is a bit too cute, so I lost it. It’s not really the sort of thing WicDiv does, anyway.

Yes, Giant Woman is a Steven Universe nod. Putting aside that image of Giant Tara kicking ass which has been in my head forever, there’s so much to love in the image – to pick a small part, how about the Norns blasting in triplicate? We rarely see them act like this.

You can also trace via the colouring which of Beth’s crew have duplicated which God’s powers.

Page 6

There’s been a lot about people copying people’s powers in WicDiv, and trying to find out what someone can and can’t do, and then using it against them. This switches it up. The thing about being creative instead of a straight plagiarist that creative people make up new shit. That’s kind of the point of them.

Once more, Matt showing the dance of the colouring between the Woden green (haunting the series like a ghost now) and the joy of Dio is (er) a joy.

Page 7

Another Matt moment – we step out of the club, and we drop to greys, before building the energy up.

I’m not quite sure how long Robin has wanted to punch Beth for. Or how long I planned to do it, even. I can imagine Robin thinking of this a lot though – she’s the one who takes a long time to snap.

There’s a dual structure here too – there’s two main compare-and-contrast bands in WicDiv. Beth’s and Cass’…

Page 8

And this is a very different kind of band break up.

The problem here is different – I want to give much more space. First draft it seemed that they got talked into it really easily. But it’s all the space we had so what to do? Once more, captions. Silent panel with captions can be timeless, and gives room for our minds to populate it. It’s been so long I can no longer remember if the fact the two almost-silent characters are shouting, but we’re not allowed to hear, because it’s private seems relevant.

Page 9-10

Hard cut made easier with the caption. Captions are great. Trust captions.

The shot of Mini at the edge, just looking back with space either side is great. Just the isolation of it.

The “try to sing” on the page turn seems a meaningful reveal. Can she?

No she can’t. This is another very old beat in the founding documents – it’s hinted at on page 9. Mini says that she gave it up – and she said the same in issue 9. I’m not sure I believe her. When planning it I realised that some people would take it as a comment on Work for hire – don’t get stuck keeping a story alive forever, as it will eventually atrophy your talent. It wasn’t planned, but I’d be fine with it as a reading. When Chrissy read it, she took it as “Don’t get stuck in art management.” which works too. Readings are fun.

Anyway – a performance. That the big thing in the issue is a performance rather than a fight is very much WicDiv turning towards its core concept as we head towards the final straight. Of course we’d do this.

Yeah, Matt and Jamie, killing it on the final panel of the second page – the Persephone-esque tentacles made something else, because she is something else now. The numinous expression of Minerva. Amazing.

Page 11

The borders in this sequence harking back to the Persephone performance in issue 18.

I may actually try to tweak this sequence in the trade and have a different execution of “When I was 14” and all the rest, to work a little more like a LOC CAP rather than a speech. We couldn’t make it work given the time before deadline. That’s the odd thing about our extended issues – just because it’s taking longer doesn’t mean we have more time to do tasks, right? Some things are only possible when the whole thing is together. It works, I think, but part of me wants to push it harder.

Anyway – these two. I loved writing them though. I said it back in the other flashbacks, but how the two of them dance is a delight. Hell, doing them across a lifetime is a delight.

Okay – I’m going to give you a name for Ananke’s sister. It’s the one I used in my notes. It’s no more her name than “Ananke” is really Ananke’s.

It’s Demeter. Ask me about it another time.

Page 12

The “god” in panel 2 is a Proto Norn.

This primal gathering brings to mind issue 9 as well.

Demeter’s expression in the penultimate panel? Love it.

Page 13

The captions are Laura’s style, but changed colouring. That Laura is helping Minerva performs means it comes across in her voice, was our thinking.

Captions are once more useful though – trying to get something that is evocative, but also clear was the battle.

(The Colours here!)

She-in-Thirds is a name-behind-the-name. The Maiden/Mother/Child archetype – the one which Ananke subverted in a few pages time.

Page 14

I find myself thinking whether the return to a close-to-eight panel for much of this is meaningful. This is kind of Bronze Age Phonogram.

Reading this I wish I had capitalised The Rebel – it’s another archetype. Proto-Lucifer. I’ll tweak for the trade.

I forget when the metaphor for a song for the “godhood” in WicDiv came to me, but it feels like the right one. It’s how songs often feel to me.

Page 15

If you go back to issue 34, you’ll see some of the details of this plan are different to the plan that Ananke has put into play there. In fact, the deal that she strikes in issue 34 is akin to what she wants here. It’s mainly for clarity – the reader needs to be reminded of what’s actually going on, as they won’t necessarily remember the details from way back then. I figure this is the plan she wanted to do, then found something else when Demeter wasn’t into it, before swooping around to something closer.

Page 16

“After all my friends were dead” gives a little flex in the timeline.

I do like Ananke’s hat.

“The Great River” being the Nile, and the pantheon we saw back in issue 36.

In terms of lists of things in this issue I was looking forward to write, the first meeting between Ananke and Minerva was certainly one of them. I tried to get something of the oddness here. Jamie and Matt manage to get the mood of issue 34 again too – I really do like this bronze-age western vibe. There’s a project I keep on thinking about doing, and it has some of that too it. Hmm.

Yes, page width panel of character delivering a line remains a key WicDiv tool. There’s so much I love here – the touch from Ananke, whose PoV we’re in. Minerva speaking to herself, speaking to us, etc.

That the knife is just sentimental is a minor beat I’m very fond of.

Page 17

Once more, Captions, as Laura makes sure we all Get It.

One of the debates in WicDiv fandom has always been whether the gods are picked by Ananke (i.e. Anyone could be a god) or whether they’re actually people with a gifts. Of course, the answer is that it’s both.

The thing I least like about WicDiv’s mythology is that the 12 people are people with this gift, for obvious “Ugh Chosen Ones” reasons. There’s some things that mitigate that a little, I hope, and not least that it’s clearly transferable to wherever you are in life. The core of it is “if you find yourself with a gift, be careful with it and use it responsibly.” It’s a book about the power, privilege, dangers and seductions of being an artist and all that. It’s only when writing that sentence do I realise how tired I am. This has been a busy week. Excuse me if the writing is looser than usual.

Anyway, I’m probably over-worrying. If X-men is fine, we probably are too.

So – end of the page is a download of some of the explanations of stuff folk will inevitably be going “Wait – what?”

And then Tara steps up.

When you’re writing a large group scene, with limited space, there’s choices you make of who speaks and who doesn’t. Who’s going to have the strongest counter-argument to something? Who’s going to have the biggest reaction? Them. They’re the one who carries the scene.

Which is Tara. Perhaps you could make an argument for Baal, but Baal is reeling through all these issues – plus if you choose one or the other, you tie-breaker would be who hasn’t had spotlight.

Page 18-21

And the counter is equally inevitably Cassandra (who is also in the process of beating herself up). Being Cass, she puts it harshly. Clearly, this is going to get a response from Tara.. and Cass opens up herself and makes herself vulnerable. Which is a hell of a thing for her, right?

I’ll stop this – I’m just walking through the emotional flow, but I love these two women here.

Which segues into the last formalist style thing of the issue. Once again, we have a space = meaning problem. This is clearly the most important sequence of the issue, but we have so few pages. We turn to one of the core WicDiv moves of black panels in a six panel grid, and loading them up with text. Suddenly we have a sense of ritual, a lot of dialogue produced in a stylistic way and most of all a whole extra page (hence an extra page of weight).

It’s also a complete showcase for Matt. The last godly panel of them is them at their most Godly, this final little iconic burst. A confession, and it’s gone.

I cried when I got the colours for this. I forget which one it was – there’s just some wonderful Jamie expressions in there as well.

Choosing the confessions was definitely tricky. We have space, but too much is too much. Some of them I kept simple, and others needed a little space to explain. The ordering was also one of those processes where you feel out the character, and think how they’d speak. Dio would clearly jump in, then Inanna, then Mimir trying to just piece it together, and all leading to Baal.

I did try and write a Baal caption, but any words were just too small.

And then, of course…

Page 22

You’ve probably seen me talking about year 4 as Solving The Equation. Yes, we knew lots of the key things, but there’s lots of elements of the execution were worked, and rethought and discovered. I may be able to talk a little more about this in the last issue’s notes.

This was a big one. I was chewing over the synopsis and thinking… a battle against Ananke/Minerva is a little underwhelming after everything, right? At this point in the story, Minerva is a busted flush. In reality, Laura (and Demeter) won the intellectual battle against Minerva in Mothering Invention. She’s already beat her. It nagged at me. There was something else.

Then there was the other thing – I knew that Lucifer was going to get her body back, but I wasn’t entirely sure what she’d do when she had it.

The two came together: of course, the final confrontation isn’t between Laura and Minerva. It’s with Lucifer, the person who brought Laura into the world, the person who brought us all into the world. The girl who wanted to be on stage, no matter the cost. That’s the final battle.

And best of all, I had no idea what would happen.

Well – not quite, but suddenly a whole lot of things was up in the air.

Page 23

Song reference, obv. Always connected to something in my head in my early career. If I do writer notes for the playlist, I may actually tell you.

Oh – some people wondered whether all the skulls meant everyone was dead. No – it’s just there’s no god in the slot. I’m not that kind of shithead.

Anyway – issue is out tomorrow. Or maybe today, depending on where you are. It ends the story, with 45 being an epilogue with a somewhat different tone. Clearly, it’s a huge issue, so be a little careful with your tweeting. The last cover is especially a big spoiler.

Thanks for your patience and thanks for reading.

#WicDiv #the wicked and the divine #jason latour #writer notes

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ramialkarmi · 6 years

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Tesla fans and critics both need a reality check (TSLA)

The reality of Tesla's business is far more modest than the war over its stock price and market cap would suggest.

Tesla is ultimately a small car company operating in a small market for electric vehicles.

It's possible that business boredom is driving the up-and-down Tesla story.

In over a decade of covering both Tesla and the auto industry, I've never seen anything like the past 12 months.

The feeding frenzy around Tesla has been unreal: Wall Street longs and shorts fighting it out; an intense focus on the 15-year-old company's ability to execute on the fundamentals of making cars; CEO Elon Musk flipping out on earnings call and taking to Twitter to engage in extended fracas with anybody and everybody.

At times like this, it's worth it to step back and consider some actual numbers.

For example, Tesla delivered about 41,000 vehicles worldwide in the second quarter. I'm not even going to worry about whether they were Model S's, Model X's, or the much-vaunted and obsessively scrutinized Model 3. At this rate. Tesla should post a somewhat better year in 2018 than it did in 2017.

Tesla has also added about $200 million in revenue growth every quarter, although it shifts around; in the first quarter, the topline was $3.4 billion. There have rarely been quarterly profits, but the trendline is obvious and should continue to ascend until Tesla maxes out its existing production design (at its single assembly plant in California). If you build more cars and sell more cars, it follows that more money will flow in.

In the same period, an established automaker — General Motors — sold 760,000 vehicles in the US alone and globally brought in $36 billion in revenue. And that's just GM. The rest of the industry also moved a staggering amount of product and raked in billions in cash.

One more data point: electric-vehicle sales increased by 50% in early 2018, bringing the EV share of the market up to a still thoroughly unimpressive 1.6%.

The numbers don't add up to what Tesla is worth

Now let's add it all up. Tesla's global sales in the second quarter were 5% of GM's sales in the US alone and a tiny fraction of overall US sales. Tesla had a nice quarter by its standards, but in the US it's moved only around 200,000 vehicles in a decade and a half (once it sells vehicle number 200,000 in the US, a $7,500 federal tax credit will begin to phase out).

On the revenue side, as long as Tesla continues to make more cars than it did in the previous quarter and sell them, it will continue to see revenue growth. The ceiling is limited only by sustainable demand for its vehicles and Tesla's production capacity.

And as far as market share goes, Tesla holds something like 30% of that quite small pie.

You'll note that I haven't addressed the profit challenge or the cash-burn, the former being zero and the latter being in the billions. These are distractions for the more important numbers because they're givens: if you're selling 100,000 Model S and Model X luxury vehicles for an average price of $100,000, then you should be able to find a path to a margin above 10%.

But if you aim to add something north of 200,000 in new annual production and charge less for those Model 3's, it's going to degrade the net margins and, in the short term and probably the medium term, consume billions in capital. If Toyota wanted to roll out a new affordable SUV and manufacture it at a new plant, it would be up against the same math.

OK, let's now consider Tesla's market capitalization: $53 billion. GM's is $55 billion. For what it's worth, Ferrari, which sells less than 10,000 cars a year, has a market cap of about $25 billion. If you follow my numbers, then you would logically conclude that Tesla's market cap is completely ridiculous: minuscule production plus tiny overall market doesn't compute.

Cutting Tesla down to size

Now for the really big BUT: revenues don't look bad at all. This is all very back-of-the-envelope, but Tesla could start to see some acceleration there and get $20 billion in the yearly take in its sights by 2019. The trick would then be to flip the massive losses to at least periodic profits, but the topline expansion could be achieved without spending a lot on additional factories.

What we're left with is a company that, by this analysis, doesn't look to be in awful shape (although I also haven't deeply considered some balance-sheet issues, such as debt and the burdens of developing the solar and energy-storage businesses). But we're also left with a company whose stock price, although a delight for early investors, doesn't make any sense at all.

It does make sense if Tesla could somehow capture a titanic share of the existing car market. But Tesla just can't build enough vehicles to do that, and the market that it has captured a large share of could require decades to scale to a level at which EVs displace internal-combustion-powered cars.

At root, the evident disconnect between Tesla's business, which is decent, and its stock valuation, which is silly, is simply a sign of the times. Since the financial crisis, too much easy money has been chasing too few market-beating returns. Tesla conveniently staged an IPO in 2010 and has ridden this wave.

Bullish investors see Tesla as the next Apple (or perhaps even more) and bears think the company is a doomed quasi-Ponzi scheme that's headed for liquidation (oddly, the bankruptcy predictors never talk about Tesla going bust and then restructuring). But both camps are trapped in investor land and aren't really considering Tesla in terms of the right analogies.

Tesla looks a lot like Saturn

As a company, Tesla actually reminds me of Saturn, a GM division launched in the mid-1980s that sold cars via an innovative dealership channel. Saturn delivered between 200,000 and 300,000 vehicles annually from about 1993 until the years just before the GM bankruptcy.

GM's notorious, ill-fated, yet much-beloved electric car, the EV-1, was leased through Saturn stores. In the beginning, Saturn attracted a cheerfully cultlike following and minted loyal, happy owners who forged an identity not unlike what we now see among Tesla customers, minus the Musk factor.

Saturn also never made any money for GM. But for much of its existence, while it lost money it didn't lose anywhere near as mush as Tesla. Nobody ever scrupulously parsed Saturn production, either. The brand had its own factory in Tennessee and controlled between 1%-2% of US market share up until 2007.

For Tesla to live up to financial expectations, it needs to get much bigger than it now is, in terms of production and sales. This could happen if it achieves massive scale in China, where the auto market could conceivably double in size, from 20 million to 40 million in annual sales, by the middle of the century.

The rest of the world is dicier because in developed markets, sales growth is already tapped out — Tesla would have to displace numerous established players, a costly undertaking that would require even more capital spending than Tesla is already up against to expand its manufacturing capacity.

Never say never, but I don't think this is going to happen. So somewhere between absolute failure and taking over the world, we have the Tesla reality. A small carmaker, a small market, but with the kind of historic access to capital that's created a highly fraught, financial reality-distortion field. (Musk's new pay package, more than the elevated stock price, is Exhibit A: it proposes a market cap of $650 billion, making Tesla eventually more valuable than the Detroit Big Three, Toyota, and Volkswagen combined, by a wide margin.)

Tesla madness

So there: I've lightly crunched some numbers and offered an automotive history lesson. It wasn't necessary to muster spectacular industry flame outs, such as Preston Tucker or John DeLorean. So why the Tesla feeding frenzy?

A big part of it is that no new car company has come along in decades, so nobody knows what's the wild, wild early days look like (although back to Saturn, which was pretty low drama by contrast). But business boredom is also a factor. The auto industry is doing great, with record sales and profits. The banking system is stable. The giants of Silicon Valley are more giant than ever. Unemployment is low. Corporations just got a huge tax cut. Tesla is the only crazy thing in this landscape, the equivalent of the Trump story in politics.

For most people these days, automakers are also black boxes. Folks buy and lease cars all the time, but unlike with older generations, they don't much interact with vehicles outside of driving them (cars aren't designed to be tinkered with in the ways they once were, either — car companies would almost rather than owners avoid getting under the hood).

I won't say we're beset with manufacturing illiteracy because that would be too extreme, but as the car business has become more technologically advanced, a broader understanding of how the industry works has eroded. And this has happened at the same time that Tesla arrived on the scene. That, in turn, has distorted expectations for the company because being a new player and going from zero cars built to over 100,000 every year is incredibly difficult.

Basically, nearly everybody who has tried to do what Tesla is doing has failed. So it's understandable that the debate and discussion around the company has become unreal. Tesla's ongoing existence, to put it bluntly, defies reality.

But that isn't an excuse for allowing Tesla to become a subject of fantasy or baseless speculation. There is actually a middle ground, and that's where Tesla should rightly be.

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Helping The Others Realize The Advantages Of Conerney

CHAPTER 6: THE Customers CHAPTER 3: LICENSING How does one make things better? You find their country involved! At numerous occasions during the week, you will receive a two hour stints. The notion is the fact that clients will telephone in looking for an agent only because they've a house they wish to buy. I would guess that this has happened once at the annals of genuine estate. A lot phone calls into the old timers. If you should be lucky enough to get you to definitely express they will use one to market their house, you need to know now that their house is worth much more than the one three doors down which is exactly the same. Why? Idon't know. They're delusional. They're stupid. Maybe they're greedy. They're upside-down on the house. Maybe they simply need the amount of money. It's probably each of the aforementioned. • Tuesday. In-house coaching, or "how to waste 3 stable hours of prime work period." • Automobile. They'll cover your vehicle! No, they won't. If you should be 1 among the most notable 2 producers, and are willing to put a God-awful giant sticker over the sides and rear of your own (accurately coloured) auto, they'll cover a minimal total youpersonally. Why not they? It's the advertising they could get. CHAPTER 8: "SUPPORT" (note quote marks) All you need to do is pick up the telephone, notify the business their http://conerney.ie title along with telephone number and where they are searching. The irony? It's cash. I know people who made about referrals than that I did as a realtor, many times around. There's a charge to become in the program, however, you didn't genuinely believe that was free, did you really? And to stay in "referral status" you require to simply take ongoing training. CHAPTER 4: FEES, Costs and Expenses • Name tag. Fantastic news is free. The terrible news, you've got to wear a name label. Straight back once I experienced a actual job, I knew a gentleman who consistently said "In case a man has to put on a name label during his occupation, he is not too profitable." They hate you. • Wednesday. "Twilight" spacious houses. This means that your nighttime is shot. Which means that if you own a person that wishes to market their house for £330,000 nevertheless, also you personally and every one understand it will not bring £250,000, then you inform them that you will set it to get their price tag, and then little by little enable the price decline when men and women laugh at your house. • Hint 1): there was a whole lot of cash. It really is just not going to be all made with you personally. In fact, a lot of it's actually likely to come FROM you. The real estate companies themselves create an enormous sum of profit part by churning persons through their "programs" and spitting them out with emptier pockets. CHAPTER 7: Your Lifetime AS AN AGENT • Business cards. They are free! Very well, sort of. The most basic, crappy models are free, the ones that scream "I'm new to the!" To get fine kinds, having a movie, you've got to cover, also you've got to spend money on the movie. This really is my own story. Don't let it change your mind if you want to goes into the world of residential property real estate. I had a realestate representative inform me what a idea that it had been and I moved ahead together together with my plan. I'd a gorgeous Ford Mustang GT once I made this "job". I sold it because I was told that you need to take your clients all around the area to view houses. Out using the sports automobile, in with all the Volvo station wagon (in the dreadful corporate tone, naturally.) As it turns out, no one wants to ride with their real estate agent; they want to follow you all around. This will be for many good reasons: they are able to escape you whenever they desire, so that they can discuss the houses with no hearing them (even though you are not their trusted adviser)...oh, plus so they hate you. I miss that Mustang.

CHAPTER 10: AFTERTHOUGHTS • Friday. Mailings, customer looking. • Realtor fees get you the "Realtor" snaredown. This could be. CHAPTER 1): SOME QUICK Starter 'S Recommendations Keep in mind though, that you have two choices here: you can either Discover more here become a Realtor or you can become a Realtor. It's true, you read that correct. I'll make no conclusions regarding the worth of the organization, except to say that sitting through the most boring training ever nets you a tiny R pin. Absolutely nothing says I am a triumph better compared to a snare using an ep on it...right close to your name label. • Cardkey. You require this to get in to any house which is on the market. It's true, you've got to cover it. Plus they can't ship it; you require to drive 30 miles to pick it up. It really is odd to participate a financial endeavor for someone who you understand. They will use you to buy or sell a house, but no 1 wants you to know their monetary business, so it's difficult. Your friends and family may possibly want minor favors, like...they will need all of their cash. Yes, seriously. I had a relative ask if I would give them back my entire commission if they used me to obtain a house. I declined, and also the request was the nail that secured my property coffin closed. • Monday. Mandatory meetings and house excursions. The meeting is useless, and that's the reason why you'll rarely see old-timers there, they veer off after the very first house and wind upward God-knows-where. They're possibly in the pub. The tour is pretty fun. You have to hear everybody whine of everything that they utilize and everything from the houses. You get to walk through a stranger's house and listen to that your co workers (proudly showing their title badges) criticize the homeowner's choices whatsoever. Cases: Exactly what exactly were thinking for this carpeting? Have they cleaned this particular room? Wow, those are some kiddies in that picture. I can not think they left Paxil AND Prozac around the sink, even exactly what a basket case. Their agent is someone who's unhappy and blessed, sitting down on an available line of credit or a pile of money cash, and merely needs something to keep them active. Next in line would be some body who is wed, sitting on an open line of charge or a heap of funds, also just needs something to keep them out of the house and away from their spouse. If you're not one of these 2, that's OK - you'll be taken by them. •The Multi-List Technique. You merely can't be considered a actual real estate representative without even access into the MLS. It must be liberated right? No. While I say "oldtimers", I am referring for the representatives that happen to be employed at office for more than a year. Simply because they count on one to really be absent in a month or two, they are going to make eye contact at first plus so they do not need to throw away their period. When you have been around for 2 weeks, they'll begin providing you with the "chance" to sit down into their open houses for them. What they're actually asking you to do is sit in a house for three hours that no one will visit, and basically sell it on the offchance that you could secure a client out of it. Whenever there are not enough newbies in the office, they'll battle over your house-sitting efforts, and may even offer you dollars (do not get excited, so I'm talking about $20.) Get paid I never really did get paid for out helping someone. • Hint 3: Everybody else you know will soon feign encourage when questioning the decision and making fun of you. I'm significant, also you also know that already. You've despised with, didn't you? • Office Help. They despise you. I met Travis the first daythat he was at the middle of the hissy-fit because some one had discharged his own Cross pencil. It is clear, as it's not like that they sell them. Yes, they do offer them . 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The database of all addresses that email could be sent by you to was shielded by a Rottweiler in the office, a man I will get in touch with Travis. Travis was tan year-round, with own hair, also then he was dressed like a 1970's JC Penny mannequin daily. I bet his boyfriend had been, although I don't understand if he had been homosexual. This company that "hired" you will now send one to an exercise "school" (these are organizations who, for a price, educate you on about the real estate industry and assist you to pass their condition required test). Here is just two months of courses which have very little to do with the actual career. • no cost journeys! 5 decades from now, if you beat function ridiculous hours ALL your odds and then sell whatever you get near, you may possibly secure yourself a complimentary adventure. Do not hold your own breath. I am 1 man. The Realtor's Association can be a conglomerate which no doubt has lots of lawyers on the payroll. My brotherinlaw is an attorney...however I still feel out numbered. That means you'll notice I only refer to real estate agents, not Realtors. Say farewell to leisure and pleasure. http://www.thefreedictionary.com/estate agent Here is your week: • Thursday. No Thing is necessary. This is your weekend, love. Don't spend money, however, there isn't it. Property offices are listing places, so it's easy to obtain an interview. Don't be overly nervous, as do you know what? You are hired. This is simply not an interview, it's a pep talk. You could walk in and inhale in the lobbyand you are probably however hired. You did not think such a thing was liberated, did you really? Here's the rundown about fees: • Saturday. Mandatory education...all freaking day. Done-with the mandatory 15-week teaching? Commence ongoing instruction that reproduces what they taught you! Ethics rule number1 is "just acquire the list." • Associations. The County Realtor Affiliation. You have to join it. 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You have to have them, you need to cover them, and so they cost hundreds of bucks. CHAPTER 5: THE "Old Timers" I am convinced it's very different in YOUR area though, and they truly are letting you know the truth if they state so... You're going to be requested to alienate everybody else you realize and create situations by begging for referrals. Parties, churchand school, the fitness center - everywhere...that you require to be fishing for house buyers or house sellers. It's horribly awkward for everybody involved. Do not neglect to wear just the page1=46 snare anyplace you go! • Sunday. No more football matches, household picnics, etc.. since you need to take a seat in Open Houses. • Licensing. They will cover that class, in the event you speak with a real estate organization earlier you take the class and get licensed. Very well, kind of. They'll cover this, and then take the commission straight out of your commission. Wait patiently, that paid because of it? Yes, you did. You did not believe that was liberated, did you really? And keep in mind, exclamation points are used by leading manufacturers! Plenty of them! In whatever they perform! Only an FYI. I suggest a FYI!!!! CHAPTER 9: "ETHICS" (note quotation marks) CHAPTER 2: THE INTERVIEW • Tip two: There's no wages. Make certain that that you have the money in the bank to eat and pay your bills for six months. And get started searching for a job . By the moment you buy it, you're going to be from capital. I landed a spot at a company six months and 1 day from the evening of my layoff. If it was not for Un Employment, I'd have now been living in a cardboard box waiting for my real estate job. • pcs. Do not know a computer? Do not worry, no 1 else can. was dreadful with any device that is technology-related, although idon't understand just why. They needed help and the PC's were always down using a virus of some kind. There are laws that say that even though your certification training is occurring at a Real Estate office, that no one with that office may "amuse" you. Expect to get recruited. One of those instructors was a Company X manager and took a exceptional interest in me personally. He required me to open houses at homes throughout the months of practice, introduced me to every one at any office, took me and took me outside for beers soon after the practice was over. The entire time, '' he talked about the way Company Y (who'd delivered me with the training) was horrible, and why Company X has been much superior, and also certainly the location for me personally. Moral? No. Fun? Sure. I still went with the company that delivered me as it had been the suitable point.

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