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#part of me rejecting ted leaving is me just being terrible at goodbyes
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All right, I fully get that the smart money says Ted leaves Richmond in the next episode, but I just watched 3x01 again (in some mad hope that I’ll get through the entire season before the finale. Outlook: bad, but here’s to believing) and to me, the structurally sound narrative response to a character wondering (in the first 5 minutes of the first episode of the season) what he’s still doing there is not to have him spend the entire season figuring out that, actually no, he shouldn’t be here. That’s just… terribly anticlimactic, really. Posing the question that baldly, this early, to me suggests a story of him figuring out why he is there; why he has chosen that, and might continue to choose so.
Now, if we had gotten something along the lines of “I’m here to make these people the best they could be, they need me and that’s why I’m sticking around” it would make sense for Ted to eventually realize that, actually, job done; they’re as good as I can make them, now they can take it further on their own and I can go (as suggested in this meta, and to me far more satisfying than him leaving “just” because he wants to be with Henry). But we don’t get that: instead Ted notes that he knows why he came (to give Michelle a whole lot of space; it had little to do with Richmond or anyone there), but not what he’s still doing there (him and Michelle are over, so there’s no reason for him to stay away anymore). He assures Henry that he’d only stay for something really important, but he obviously has no idea what that is. He’s presented with several suggestions of what he might still be doing in England – Dr. Sharon’s “you don’t quit things, Ted” and Henry’s “win the whole thing” – but subtly rejects them both. He himself notes that “maybe me being here is doing more hurting than helping at this point, you know” so he’s clearly not sold on the notion of people needing him and him needing to stay for them.
Right from the get go, Ted’s central conflict of the season is set up as him feeling guilty over being apart from Henry and wondering what could possibly justify that. To me, the answer to that should be the justification, not an “eh, actually, nothing can, this was a bad move, let’s go home”. It’d… feel like a betrayal of everything that happened at Richmond (ie the whole series), sort of?
Now, there’s still room for a realization that yes, what he did stay for was the people around him, to help them be better: Ted seeing the labours of his work and knowing that he made the right call for the time being, but now it’s as good as he can get it, and it’s time to be with Henry. This isn’t horrible. I don’t love it, but it isn’t horrible. However, there’s little in the last episode leading up to the as-of-yet undisclosed truth bomb to Rebecca that suggests that this is the realization he’s had. His mother confesses that she’s there because Henry misses him: we already knew that! Ted knew that! The whole season has been about Ted’s guilt over that! This is not news, and should not lead to a sudden conviction that, no, actually, I have to be with my son.
(I mean, it could temporary: I’m not averse to the idea of Ted deciding to leave only to then realize that staying is the right choice after all. But as a final pay-off it’s weak.)
Rather, given the stuff with his mum (and Jamie’s dad) and Mae’s poem, the last episode read to me as Ted coming to terms with the fact that he won’t be a perfect dad. He will screw up. He will leave his son both with things to thank him for and with things that makes Henry want to say “fuck you”, and while he should be careful not to make the same mistakes as his mum, or ever be even a tenth as bad as James Tartt, it’s okay not to be perfect. Maybe it’s okay for his son to miss him; they still have a lot of contact, Henry knows that Ted loves him, and with him and Michelle divorce, it’s likely Henry would miss him some of the time even if Ted lived back in Kansas.
I’ll offer my own counter-argument: maybe Ted accepts that he will not be perfect, but is determined to be as good as he can, and to be that he needs to be with Henry. Fine, but we’re back to the part where this is just a bit anticlimactic, given that the seasons starts with Ted wondering why he’s in London. That’s the question I want answered in the next episode! Why Richmond matters to him, and why he matters to Richmond! 
Ah, it’s obviously folly to speculate: we’ll know for sure in a few days, and it’s very possible that the finale will present things in such a way that it throws new light on everything I’ve said here. (Actually, it’s very possible that the episodes between 3x01 and 3x12 might do that too, but I haven’t gotten that far in my rewatch yet.) That’s okay: I have faith that it’ll work out however it was supposed to. That said, I’d love to have expectations subverted, and for Ted to stay. (Even as I’ve gotten more used to the idea of Richmond without him.)
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