#prognosticating

[greenerteacups]

I will admit that maybe being in the middle of book 5 it is a risky question….but we know that from book 1-3 we have volume I “Green and Golden”, volume II book 4-5 “Son and Heir”… do you already have a title that you are willing to reveal to us for volume III?

The title in my drafts, pending changes, is "Death and Dominion."

[wh0lemilk0vich]

And there are people out there who don't think tarot is real

[tanadrin]

Jamelle Bouie made a couple of points on TikTok about US presidential elections recently that I thought were interesting. He argues it's kind of a myth that turnout rather than persuasion drives victories. The last couple of presidential elections have depended really on how undecided voters break, and in 2016 and 2020 how the so-called "double haters" who dislike both Biden and Trump voted when it came down to the wire. That pool of voters is quite small: in a highly polarized political environment, you just don't see the big swings in elections that you used to, and even now Biden is within a normal polling error of beating Trump. That polarization also puts a pretty low ceiling--and a pretty high floor--on any given candidate's approval ratings.

The 2020 election was in the end a very close re-run of the 2016 election--if you knew nothing about the 2020 campaign or election cycle other than who voted where and for who in 2016, you already have something like 95% of the results in 2020 figured out. This strongly contributes to my sense that the polls in 2024 are absolutely fucked: the idea we are going to see the single biggest race- and age-related realignment in voter behavior in November, when there have been no hints of it in actual election outcomes at any point in the last 18 months, and the swinginess of elections is at an all time low just doesn't seem tenable.

The other major point was that political events in a campaign have always had very short half-lives. This is one reason why people point out debates very rarely matter to the outcome of campaigns. Stuff like debates, major campaign gaffes, even campaign advertising, has a very short half-life in polls and seemingly in voters' minds as well. And since undecided voters are very different in their political behavior than people who care enough about politics to be following the presidential race in, like, June, they tend to only start paying attention to the race in the fall, and to make their final decision at the last minute.

All of this is to say the Trump assassination attempt is very unlikely to have any influence on the outcome of the election. Hell, neither is Biden's atrocious debate performance. People should make peace with the fact that the election as it stands is very uncertain: even if you rely on the polling data (which IMO you shouldn't), it is very difficult to predict with confidence who will win at this juncture.

[levi-lev]

"Viser la lune, ça me fait pas peur", as foretold by Famous French Poet, Amel Bent.

Chapter 309 spoilers ?

[abelmvada]

Prognostication

[mugs-n-cans]

scout what was the best/most heartwarming day of your life

… [He takes in a breath].

When Snipes rizzed me up, NO!!!

When—when he uhm. Busted it down sexual style, AUGHHH WHAT THE SIGMA! [He holds his head in his hands].

Ya guys are goofy ahh! [He is distraught].

[corvidsofthedeep]

No Context Crow #325: Prognosticating Crow

By Cori Lee Marvin.

[zzkt]

Tempest prognosticator

The tempest prognosticator, also known as the leech barometer, is a 19th-century invention by George Merryweather in which leeches are used in a barometer. The twelve leeches are kept in small bottles inside the device; when they become agitated by an approaching storm, they attempt to climb out of the bottles and trigger a small hammer which strikes a bell. The likelihood of a storm is indicated by the number of times the bell is struck.

(via wikipedia)

[nebulousmedic]

Youre WRONG they would ABSOLUTELY hire minors. Everything else was real and based though

For cheap child labor? Redmond and Blutarch would, absolutely, they're filthy rich and they will cut costs anywhere they can, it just fits in the TF2 universe. As for the mercenaries? I don't think so, I mean the Administrator at least has to make it SEEM like they're competent enough to hire, even though she intends to drag out the war for as long as possible.

Someone said that it was implied that Miss Pauling was hired by the Administrator in her teen years, which okay believable enough- but then they said around 12?! Where did you get that number from, genuinely. I need to know.

[greenerteacups]

Hi, GT! In one of your recent answers, you wrote how you’re excited to write the version of Bellatrix you’ve developed. The word developed got me intrigued. It’s a hefty question probably, but can you share more about how you develop characters? To what extent do you develop them before you begin writing? Any resources in particular that help you? I’m beginning work on a short story and while I have a sense about the MCs, I want to develop them so they go from being phantom-like to being strong.

It's a weird, long process that oscillates between backstory development and personality. I start with the node of the character: who are they? What is their situation? What are the immutable facts of who they are? Who are their parents, siblings, what is their job, how much money do they have? And from there, I start working through how they would have grown up, who they would have been friends with, what their interests are (answers that often are interdependent!) and how they pursued those interests (if at all). A certain amount of fiat is possible because you can, as an author, just assert that someone is Like That (i.e. you don't need a specific Backstory Reason that someone is stubborn — some people are, in fact, just Like That — but on the other hand, if that stubbornness is a big feature of the plot, it can be nice for the reader to feel like they understand where it comes from!)

The main thing is trying to understand the character completely, not as a function of the story, but as their own person who experiences everything that happens to them as the protagonist of their own life. Every character is using the best judgment they have to achieve their own aims as they understand them, and if they're not, they should still have a reason why.

The reason Bellatrix took longer than other characters is because the OG Bella is a bit one-note, because she's a villain with limited screen time, and she's also crazy — actually crazy, unhinged, described as such in the text — which doesn't give people a lot to work with as far as her interior world goes. But there's still something there.

[mtg-cards-hourly]

Prognostic Sphinx

Artist: Steve Prescott TCG Player Link Scryfall Link EDHREC Link

[dduane]

Today’s vagueblog

Once upon a time, “cringe” was a verb, not an adjective.

...Someday it will be again.

:)

[greasby]

Can i use this art of yours as my discord pfp? I will credit you in my bio, of course

yes ofc, as long as you guys credit me im fine w using my art as pfps :3

[rlyehtaxidermist]

i wish onieromantic traditions would do more to incorporate the increasing amount of symbolism available as the world gets bigger. like why interpret everything in the lens of classical mythology. i need a more precise meaning for the time i saw tony soprano murder dr. ver from symphogear with a banh mi in my family's coat closet

[mugs-n-cans]

youve smelled his laundry havent you scout

[cheebuss]

youre SO RIGHT for liking jjba and tf2 and warrior cats. those are literally some of my major interests. i. i guess you could say. it. its. bizarre

TY TY impeccable taste on this page fr!!! We're both not immune to the sillies