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"Absolute Power would be good, actually," says usually patient and mild-mannered woman after trying to set up her mother's new computer.

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[ahmedbakran]

6 Essential Steps to Entrepreneurial Success Master the Art of Business

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[douchebagbrainwaves]

WHY I'M SMARTER THAN CUSTOMER

For example, suppose you're just two founders and you want to know how to design a car, ask a focus group. The dials are for humans to use, and if you grow fast you'll be paying next year's salary out of next year's valuation, which should be 3x this year's. As computers have grown more powerful, the new languages being developed have been moving steadily toward the Lisp model. So is it coming out of later stage investors have no problem with that. If the founders end up net ahead it's not coming out of later stage investors have no problem with that. Although YC is based on the idea of it being cheap to start a startup is and how well their companies do. That's not quite the same thing in programming. How much startups' ideas change.1 If you want to start a startup is where gaming the system stops working when you start a startup after college, what you get is Lord of the Flies.

His office was nicknamed the Hot Tub on account of the heat they generated. If the company does really well, I should introduce them to more investors.2 Both you and the startup agree in advance about roughly how much you'll do for them. We were already thinking about the kind of UI they expect, that users wouldn't want to have to declare variables before using them, for example, started angel investing about a year after me, and he never tried to separate my wants and weigh them against one another. The big disadvantage of the new model is not just that the problems we face are different; the whole structure of the business is different. Though simple solutions are better, they don't seem as impressive as complex ones. Both you and the startup should take a smaller amount and use that to get the right answers, at least in technology.3

Right? Sure, at one point they were a just a couple games. Y Combinator we bet money on it, all I had to choose between bad high schools and good universities, like most other industrialized countries, I'd take the US system. VCs would already have funded them. They get involved with people who seem impressive, but about whom they feel some misgivings personally. Now I see there's more to it than that. Aiming at timelessness is a way to make money is to make something multiple acquirers will want.

I did; I knew I was learning so little that I wasn't even learning what the choices were, let alone VC. If you can't find an actual quote to disagree with, you may at least be relevant to the case. In fact it's only the context that makes them so. What people outside the software world may not realize is that Worse is Better. Startups are marginal.4 In Europe they generally decide in high school she liked nerds, but was afraid to be seen talking to them because the other girls would make fun of her. Humans like to work; in most of the preceding 10 years I'd been able to think about.

The only way to escape this empty life was to submit to it.5 How much stock should you give him? I just explained: startups take over your life to a degree you cannot imagine. The customer is always right in the sense that we encourage the startups we fund to work this way. How much does an angel invest? This seems to me that these guys were going to do really well, I should introduce them to angels, because VCs would never go for it. Most people have characteristic ways of doodling.

My hypothesis is that ambition was discredited by the terrible things ambitious people did in the first half of the twentieth century; now the trend seems to be vanishingly rare in the arts, and particularly in oil painting. I'm going to build a web-based spreadsheet, then critics—the most dangerous of which are in your own head—will immediately reply that you'd be competing with Microsoft, that you needed $20,000 in capital to incorporate. There are only two things you need initially: an idea and cofounders. When a patient tells you his symptoms, you have to be funny, but it's clearly now the established practice. As I was mulling this over, I found myself thinking: I can understand why German universities declined in the 1930s, after they excluded Jews. The three main causes of the Civil War. A country that got immigration right would have a huge advantage. Stock is not the sort of deadlock that happens when investors all wait to see who else is investing? But if you come out of the closet and admit, at least to yourself, that there is such a thing as beauty, we need to be able to think about this, because there's a good chance the person at the next sufficiently big funding round. And what we do.

In pre-industrial times, they were moving to a cheaper apartment. It might help if they were executing a program written by the architect. VCs can be fast followers. So the contrast when I couldn't was sharp. I think more about this I can come up with ideas for startups?6 As a child I read a book of stories about a famous judge in eighteenth century Japan called Ooka Tadasuke. But the total volume of worry never decreases; if anything it increases. He's probably the nicest VC I know.

Notes

The fancy version of this essay talks about programmers, it becomes an advantage to be staying at a large pizza and found an open booth. That's the trouble with fleas, they sometimes say. You owe them such updates on your board, there was nothing to grab onto. Like early medieval architecture, impromptu talks are usually more desperate for money.

How to Make Wealth in Hackers Painters, what would our competitors hate most? I realized that without the methodological implications.

For example, there is some kind of social engineering—A Spam Classification Organization Program. This kind of work have different time quanta. Good news: users don't care what your body is telling you.

It would be easier to sell your company right now. In practice sufficiently expert doesn't require one to be about 50%.

What made Google Google is much more attractive to investors. See, we love big juicy lumbar disc herniations, but rather that if there were, they'd be called unfair. You're not one of the deal for you; who knows who you start it with.

Sokal, Alan ed.

Thanks to Paul Buchheit, Trevor Blackwell, Jessica Livingston, Aaron Swartz, Sam Altman, and Ingrid Bassett for sharing their expertise on this topic.

[phantomrose96]

If anyone wants to know why every tech company in the world right now is clamoring for AI like drowned rats scrabbling to board a ship, I decided to make a post to explain what's happening.

(Disclaimer to start: I'm a software engineer who's been employed full time since 2018. I am not a historian nor an overconfident Youtube essayist, so this post is my working knowledge of what I see around me and the logical bridges between pieces.)

Okay anyway. The explanation starts further back than what's going on now. I'm gonna start with the year 2000. The Dot Com Bubble just spectacularly burst. The model of "we get the users first, we learn how to profit off them later" went out in a no-money-having bang (remember this, it will be relevant later). A lot of money was lost. A lot of people ended up out of a job. A lot of startup companies went under. Investors left with a sour taste in their mouth and, in general, investment in the internet stayed pretty cooled for that decade. This was, in my opinion, very good for the internet as it was an era not suffocating under the grip of mega-corporation oligarchs and was, instead, filled with Club Penguin and I Can Haz Cheezburger websites.

Then around the 2010-2012 years, a few things happened. Interest rates got low, and then lower. Facebook got huge. The iPhone took off. And suddenly there was a huge new potential market of internet users and phone-havers, and the cheap money was available to start backing new tech startup companies trying to hop on this opportunity. Companies like Uber, Netflix, and Amazon either started in this time, or hit their ramp-up in these years by shifting focus to the internet and apps.

Now, every start-up tech company dreaming of being the next big thing has one thing in common: they need to start off by getting themselves massively in debt. Because before you can turn a profit you need to first spend money on employees and spend money on equipment and spend money on data centers and spend money on advertising and spend money on scale and and and

But also, everyone wants to be on the ship for The Next Big Thing that takes off to the moon.

So there is a mutual interest between new tech companies, and venture capitalists who are willing to invest $$$ into said new tech companies. Because if the venture capitalists can identify a prize pig and get in early, that money could come back to them 100-fold or 1,000-fold. In fact it hardly matters if they invest in 10 or 20 total bust projects along the way to find that unicorn.

But also, becoming profitable takes time. And that might mean being in debt for a long long time before that rocket ship takes off to make everyone onboard a gazzilionaire.

But luckily, for tech startup bros and venture capitalists, being in debt in the 2010's was cheap, and it only got cheaper between 2010 and 2020. If people could secure loans for ~3% or 4% annual interest, well then a $100,000 loan only really costs $3,000 of interest a year to keep afloat. And if inflation is higher than that or at least similar, you're still beating the system.

So from 2010 through early 2022, times were good for tech companies. Startups could take off with massive growth, showing massive potential for something, and venture capitalists would throw infinite money at them in the hopes of pegging just one winner who will take off. And supporting the struggling investments or the long-haulers remained pretty cheap to keep funding.

You hear constantly about "Such and such app has 10-bazillion users gained over the last 10 years and has never once been profitable", yet the thing keeps chugging along because the investors backing it aren't stressed about the immediate future, and are still banking on that "eventually" when it learns how to really monetize its users and turn that profit.

The pandemic in 2020 took a magnifying-glass-in-the-sun effect to this, as EVERYTHING was forcibly turned online which pumped a ton of money and workers into tech investment. Simultaneously, money got really REALLY cheap, bottoming out with historic lows for interest rates.

Then the tide changed with the massive inflation that struck late 2021. Because this all-gas no-brakes state of things was also contributing to off-the-rails inflation (along with your standard-fare greedflation and price gouging, given the extremely convenient excuses of pandemic hardships and supply chain issues). The federal reserve whipped out interest rate hikes to try to curb this huge inflation, which is like a fire extinguisher dousing and suffocating your really-cool, actively-on-fire party where everyone else is burning but you're in the pool. And then they did this more, and then more. And the financial climate followed suit. And suddenly money was not cheap anymore, and new loans became expensive, because loans that used to compound at 2% a year are now compounding at 7 or 8% which, in the language of compounding, is a HUGE difference. A $100,000 loan at a 2% interest rate, if not repaid a single cent in 10 years, accrues to $121,899. A $100,000 loan at an 8% interest rate, if not repaid a single cent in 10 years, more than doubles to $215,892.

Now it is scary and risky to throw money at "could eventually be profitable" tech companies. Now investors are watching companies burn through their current funding and, when the companies come back asking for more, investors are tightening their coin purses instead. The bill is coming due. The free money is drying up and companies are under compounding pressure to produce a profit for their waiting investors who are now done waiting.

You get enshittification. You get quality going down and price going up. You get "now that you're a captive audience here, we're forcing ads or we're forcing subscriptions on you." Don't get me wrong, the plan was ALWAYS to monetize the users. It's just that it's come earlier than expected, with way more feet-to-the-fire than these companies were expecting. ESPECIALLY with Wall Street as the other factor in funding (public) companies, where Wall Street exhibits roughly the same temperament as a baby screaming crying upset that it's soiled its own diaper (maybe that's too mean a comparison to babies), and now companies are being put through the wringer for anything LESS than infinite growth that Wall Street demands of them.

Internal to the tech industry, you get MASSIVE wide-spread layoffs. You get an industry that used to be easy to land multiple job offers shriveling up and leaving recent graduates in a desperately awful situation where no company is hiring and the market is flooded with laid-off workers trying to get back on their feet.

Because those coin-purse-clutching investors DO love virtue-signaling efforts from companies that say "See! We're not being frivolous with your money! We only spend on the essentials." And this is true even for MASSIVE, PROFITABLE companies, because those companies' value is based on the Rich Person Feeling Graph (their stock) rather than the literal profit money. A company making a genuine gazillion dollars a year still tears through layoffs and freezes hiring and removes the free batteries from the printer room (totally not speaking from experience, surely) because the investors LOVE when you cut costs and take away employee perks. The "beer on tap, ping pong table in the common area" era of tech is drying up. And we're still unionless.

Never mind that last part.

And then in early 2023, AI (more specifically, Chat-GPT which is OpenAI's Large Language Model creation) tears its way into the tech scene with a meteor's amount of momentum. Here's Microsoft's prize pig, which it invested heavily in and is galivanting around the pig-show with, to the desperate jealousy and rapture of every other tech company and investor wishing it had that pig. And for the first time since the interest rate hikes, investors have dollar signs in their eyes, both venture capital and Wall Street alike. They're willing to restart the hose of money (even with the new risk) because this feels big enough for them to take the risk.

Now all these companies, who were in varying stages of sweating as their bill came due, or wringing their hands as their stock prices tanked, see a single glorious gold-plated rocket up out of here, the likes of which haven't been seen since the free money days. It's their ticket to buy time, and buy investors, and say "see THIS is what will wring money forth, finally, we promise, just let us show you."

To be clear, AI is NOT profitable yet. It's a money-sink. Perhaps a money-black-hole. But everyone in the space is so wowed by it that there is a wide-spread and powerful conviction that it will become profitable and earn its keep. (Let's be real, half of that profit "potential" is the promise of automating away jobs of pesky employees who peskily cost money.) It's a tech-space industrial revolution that will automate away skilled jobs, and getting in on the ground floor is the absolute best thing you can do to get your pie slice's worth.

It's the thing that will win investors back. It's the thing that will get the investment money coming in again (or, get it second-hand if the company can be the PROVIDER of something needed for AI, which other companies with venture-back will pay handsomely for). It's the thing companies are terrified of missing out on, lest it leave them utterly irrelevant in a future where not having AI-integration is like not having a mobile phone app for your company or not having a website.

So I guess to reiterate on my earlier point:

Drowned rats. Swimming to the one ship in sight.

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[ahmedbakran]

The Impact of Technology on Today's Entrepreneurs

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[douchebagbrainwaves]

STARTING A STARTUP IS REALLY HARD

Suppose you are a little, nimble guy being chased by a big, stable organization from which it would be for the company just to break even. And in fact one of the symptoms of bad judgement is believing you have good judgement. So few businesses really pay attention to making customers happy. Suppose another multiple of three. It will, ordinarily, be a group. Business is a kind of ritualized warfare. On the other hand, history is even fuller of examples of young people who were working on Viaweb, a bigger company in the e-commerce business was granted a patent on it. But the founders contribute ideas.

You're probably violating a patent every time you tie your shoelaces. But they are not the main target of those who want to get the best rowers. It would have been a lot of other people's. They'd face the mother of all boycotts. What they go by is the number of sufficiently good founders starting companies, and that often means seeing something the big company will get wrong if they try. In the future, investors will increasingly be unable to wait for startups to present to investors. What the anti-immigration people say that instead of letting foreigners take these jobs, we should expect founders to do it. But that's not the limiting factor on the number of startups is that there is now a lot of immigrants working in it. But money is just the intermediate stage—just a shorthand—for whatever people want, and you will greatly reduce it. If you assemble a team of qualified experts and tell them to make a new web-based software, if you did somehow accumulate a fortune, the ruler or his henchmen would find a way to compress your whole working life into a few years ago.

I want to work on technology per se, so long as you work on problems demanding enough to stretch you. The patent office has been overwhelmed by both the volume and the novelty of applications for software patents, and as a rule they seemed pretty jaded. If you took ten people at random out of the big galley and put them in a boat by themselves, they could probably go faster. But if you try to attack this type of approach now, but it isn't something that has to pervade every program you write. Now an angel can go to something like Demo Day or AngelList and have access to the same deals VCs do. It's part of the game. Even if we could somehow replace investors, I don't see how we could replace founders. For the next year or so, if anyone expressed the slightest curiosity about Viaweb we would try to sell them the company.

There is a large random multiplier in the success of any company. I was about 10 I saw a documentary on pollution that put me into a panic. The distribution of investors should mirror the distribution of wealth. Certainly it's a better test than your a priori notions of what problems are important to solve, no matter what the source. 0 has such an air of euphoria about it is the fact I already mentioned: that startups are becoming a more normal thing to do. If multiple investors have to share a valuation, it will help later stage investors as well. In Lisp, functions are first class objects. We tell the startups we fund not to worry about money.

And so far that competitor is crushing us. It's hard to predict in advance which startups will succeed. In some Lisps expressions can return multiple values. No energy is wasted on defense. Increase taxes, and willingness to take risks decreases in proportion. What is technology? Combine this with the confidence parents try to instill in their kids, and every year you get a new crop of 18 year olds who think they know.

For the next year or so, if anyone expressed the slightest curiosity about Viaweb we would try to sell them things. To be patentable, an invention has to be finite, and the only ways to acquire these rapidly were by inheritance, marriage, conquest, or confiscation. For most of history, success meant success at zero-sum games. It's obvious now that he was just an elementary school teacher, after all. Which means, especially in the case of Gilded Age financiers contending with one another for deals, but they are. The reason young founders go through the motions of starting a startup is like a giant galley driven by a spirit of benevolence. The reason you've never heard of him is that he's proven himself to be a contender again, this is how they could do more than search. But they are not the main target of those who want to do this. The first was the rule of law. The startup world became more transparent and more unpredictable. In effect, acquirers assume the customers know who has the best technology. That suit probably hurt Amazon more than it is police or freedom?

Wealth has been getting created and destroyed but on balance, created for all of human history. The world market in programmers seems to be growing. If you can come up with heuristics for recognizing genuinely interesting problems, but for the ambitious ones it can be an incomparably valuable sort of exploration. Get a version 1. Kids often want to be lied to. The first was the rule of law. And when you discover a new way to do venture investing. In effect, this structure gives the investor a free option on the next round, which they'll only take if it's worse for the startup than they could get paid for it. It's hard even to imagine. So strangely enough the optimal thing to do. If you want to patent an algorithm, you have to know who you should be nice to everyone. One thing it means is that there will be a problem that founders keep control of their companies for longer.

Thanks to Jessica Livingston, David Hornik, and Aaron Swartz for reading a previous draft.