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sportsminorityreport · 2 years

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5 plans for PAC expansion from “likely” to “very aggressive”.

Today we are going to talk about PAC expansion.

It’s coming but what will it be?

We are going to outline 5 plans for Pac expansion. Most of them require the PAC leadership to get off their asses and add teams before some candidates are no longer available to them.

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- Likely (extremely conservative) PAC expansion

-Better conservative PAC expansion

-Stronger somewhat aggressive PAC expansion

- Aggressive PAC expansion.

-Very aggressive PAC expansion.

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Likely (extremely conservative) PAC expansion to 11

Add San Diego State.

This is almost certainly what the PAC is going to do.

The departure of UCLA and USC left them with no presence in Southern California ---a region of 24 M residents which represents 36% of the total statewide total of 67M residents in the PAC footprint and likely has forced the PAC to listen to overtures from Amazon and Apple as their offerings are not tied to markets or states.

The LA Designated Market Area has 5.7M TV Households. The San Diego DMA is a solid DMA (#27) with 1.1M households but the key component is that there are only 3 FBS programs in Southern California.

Southern California is hugely important to the PAC financially. It is literally the most populous region in the entire PAC footprint and the primary supplemental recruiting ground for the whole conference.

SDSU is a great candidate athletically. They are an annual bowl team in football and annual tourney teams in basketball in a city with no NBA or NFL teams. They will overperform in the PAC.

Really my ONLY complaint with them in terms of providing value is that they built their new stadium too small by roughly 15,000 seats. SDSU has an opportunity right now to evolve into a program that could draw up to 60,000 per game with the alienated San Diego Charger fanbase. Overnight they could become one of the more valuable PAC schools, but their leadership clearly didn’t understand the opportunity facing them and their new stadium capacity precludes that.

Academics are another story. SDSU is currently ranked 151st in the US News ranking. This would tie them for the second lowest ranking in the conference, tied with Oregon State and ahead of Washington State (#212). Their research totals also lag behind (165th at 97M annually). Their average ACT score is 25 which puts them in the middle of the PAC schools. Overall though, clearly this is not academically the kind of school the conference generally targets.

Better conservative PAC expansion to 12

Add San Diego State and Texas Tech (or TCU)

So the Pac is ALREADY apparently committed to compromising it’s academic standards in the next round of expansion to add SDSU because the loss of the LA Market is so huge of a problem for their business model.

If you are going to make that concession, wouldn’t it make more sense to add two schools that don’t satisfy your academic criteria but that you absolutely ultimately need in media terms in the same round of expansion, so you can go back to being academic snobs in future expansion?

So I’m going to be very uncomfortably real for a second to PAC 10 ears.

What university makes just as much TV sense for the PAC as San Diego State and is academically SDSU’s equal (ie. equally falls clearly short of PAC academic standards --- but not embarrassingly so like Boise State. Is there another school that just like SDSU desperately wants to improve their academic and research standings via PAC affiliation)?

I give you Texas Tech.

Tech has been ranked much much higher in previous editions of the US News rankings but is currently stinking it up at 216. I believe for a long time they were rated around 160th. (There seems to be a lot of play in their rank there.)

Still this would make Texas Tech the lowest rated university in the Pac, narrowly behind Washington State (#212). Their average ACT score is identical to SDSU’s at 25.

The leadership at Tech wants to do more research but are frustratingly limited by the State of Texas’s legislative leadership not valuing the ROI on university research and a tendency by that group to want to earmark almost all research funds for UT and Texas A&M.

PAC admission is something Tech has craved for quite a while to change this narrative. They currently are 122nd with $199M in annual research dollars....low for the Pac, but not the lowest. (It should be noted their research total is twice San Diego State’s.)

Why would you want to add Texas Tech with SDSU?

Tech is based out of Lubbock and has long been a fairly large university, so for decades their alumni have moved out into all of Texas’s large metro areas. (Their largest concentration of alumni is actually in Dallas/Fort Worth, the Nation’s #5 DMA with 7M residents and 3M TV households.) In very real ways, Texas Tech has a media acknowledged statewide following like UT and Texas A&M...just smaller.

Media-wise the PAC does not have a path to acquire UT or A&M. This is the best the PAC can do in Texas.

You cannot replace losing USC and UCLA, but adding Tech would give the PAC access to Texas... A state with 29M residents. In a very real way SDSU + Texas Tech is a pretty solid double play to try to replace the loss of the LA schools using only those two now vacant slots.

Tech also has strong viewership to their games and draws strong crowds for football and basketball that would put them near the top of the PAC in both sports. They tend to be bowl eligible in football and would likely be an annual NCAA Basketball tourney team in the PAC.

They are pretty much exactly a peer of SDSU.

The Big Ten was once ridiculed for adding Rutgers in order to get the presence they wanted in the valuable New York City DMA. That has worked out brilliantly for them financially. This is the same kind of move except Texas Tech will be in a bowl game and earning the PAC an NCAA tourney share most years.

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Stronger somewhat aggressive PAC expansion to 14

Add SDSU, Texas Tech, TCU, and Kansas

To me this is the aggressive expansion plan that may make the most sense for the PAC leaders. In general, this is the expansion plan I view as the “minimal” effective expansion for the PAC at this moment.

In general, conferences with exclusively football playing members want all sports members in expansion. This 4 team expansion satisfies that simple goal, so while this isn’t a group they want to think about, what I am suggesting isn’t immediately going to seem unreasonable to consider.

My number one rule for expansion is that everything a conference has said in the past is out the window on the day they vote. For example, this current PAC leadership has said they only want AAU schools....Well then they lost the LA schools and have a gaping hole in Southern California.

Now that hard stance is apparently out the window because there is a shared view among the PAC schools that they now need SDSU which is nowhere near being an AAU school after decades of SDSU being a hard “no”.

What matters is what conference members believes they desperately need on the morning of the expansion vote.

This has made schools that are winning on the field when votes take place have perhaps an overstated apparent value to those voters. The conference targeting them presents them to their media partners as if this latest years’ results are “the new norm” you can expect value-wise from those expansion candidates.

You can see this playout in every conference expansion (with the exception of the Big Ten expansions. All other conferences are playing checkers in expansion while the Big Ten plays chess).

What school is riding a playoff spot/near playoff spot season into a second much more favorable look? Well the answer is obviously #3 ranked TCU (who I personally think is sneaky good in the right ways and will beat Michigan and end up in the championship game.).

The Pac 10 leaderships may look at TCU and see all the negatives, but there is a reason TCU was chosen by UT to be the Big 12′s replacement for Texas A&M. That reason applies here in a major way.

TCU is the ONLY school in the DFW DMA who can draw 45,000 per game --- and they have consistently done that for over a decade. TCU famously brought a huge crowd to the Rose Bowl years ago. They are the rare private school football program that has captured the public in the surrounding area.

UT was worried about DFW becoming SEC territory when Texas A&M left. Neither the Big 12 or the SEC had a team in Dallas. The chink in UT’s armor is how much financial and exposure value the UT/OU game in Dallas brings to UT.

DFW is also Texas’s greatest football and basketball recruiting grounds.

Anything compromising UT’s position in DFW was and IS, problematic.

TCU legitimized the Big 12 fan bases embedded in DFW by giving the conference a DFW touchstone, and forced the Metroplex’s attention on the Big 12, not the SEC.

TCU can do the same for the PAC.

The sooner the PAC makes such a move the more effective that move will be.

TCU with Texas Tech can make the Metroplex shift from an SEC/Big 12 perspective to a PAC/SEC perspective. It pretty much slams the media door on the Big 12 in DFW (Their likely replacement (SMU) has a fan base that measures half the size of TCU’s and draws only a fraction of the local media attention.

Adding TCU with Tech would open a lot of media opportunities. Additionally it is a great long term position for the PAC, seriously opening up major opportunities in the expansion market.

TCU also has an embedded basketball coach in Jaime Dixon who has taken a team to the elite eight. Their basketball program are as well attended as most of the PAC schools’. This seems like a program well situated to wait for DFW to produce their “Larry Johnson” program-elevating star and become a consistent top 20 team.

TCU’s undergraduate standards are comfortably similar to most PAC schools. Their average ACT score is 28, right in line with Colorado in the upper half of the PAC. While they were founded as a religious school, they don’t carry much religious “baggage”. Their founders vocally expressed that religion should not interfere with the pursuit of knowledge.

Really the ONLY negative about TCU is that they are not a PAC level research powerhouse at all (298th with a meager $15M in annual research), but then comparatively neither are Washington State (76th $335M), Oregon (154th $114M), or Oregon State(95th $268M).

The PAC academic bluebloods take a lot of pride in manufacturing the knowledge of tomorrow. Being a footnote in the research game is legitimately a huge blow to TCU’s PAC candidacy.

I should note that TCU has consistently made changes to their approach to climb the FBS ladder...One has a feeling TCU’s leadership could quickly discover a love of research. There are a lot of indications they have.

TCU and Tech gives the PAC the DFW DMA permanently and both schools are probably inclined to join as the PAC is the better academic conference and, unlike the Big 12, it is not inconceivable for UT to join the PAC one day.

Kansas may seem like a curious choice. They are good at Basketball, but generally poor at football.

Conventional wisdom among a disappointing number of conference and university athletic department employees and people who are only casually into realignment is that “football drives all decisions and basketball is irrelevant”.

While one cannot deny that a lot of people in jobs where they should know better DO have this blind spot and that DOES lead a lot of conferences to make very poor expansion decisions, it just isn’t true.

Kansas is one of the top 3 basketball media brands. Kansas is going to be a top 5 program regardless of conference. Why does that matter? Because having such a good program in conference drags up the conference strength of schedule. Adding Kansas likely would drag two bubble PAC schools into the NCAA tourney each year. That is money generated that isn’t tracked in myopic TV money discussions.

Every team that makes the NCAA tournament gets a share of the TV money. Every team that advances gets another share.

There is a reason the PAC is kicking the tires on adding a tiny market basketball power in Gonzaga as an Olympic-only member.

Additionally the presence of a school like Kansas would take PAC basketball from being an afterthought conference into a conference basketball fans watch.

A program like Kansas is worth infinitely more than you would assume because they enhance the perceived value of your other basketball programs with the broadcasters, the hard core basketball fans, and the NCAA tournament committee.

Kansas is comfortably PAC caliber academically although not an elite academic school. Their average ACT score (26) and US News rank (121) reveals they are qualitatively more similar to the middling PAC schools in terms of undergraduate education albeit on the high end.

They do offer the PAC the “academic cover” of fulfilling the PAC desire for a candidate who is an AAU member. They also do a reasonable amount of research to be considered by the PAC (70th $360M annually).

And like TCU they have had their best football season in a decade this year, ending the season bowl eligible. It is highly likely they would perform slightly better annually in the PAC.

Kansas is a small but somewhat wealthy state. Media-wise there would be little dispute that Kansas would deliver the state as well as the nearby #33 Kansas City DMA of just under a million TV Households.

Travel to Kansas for the non-coastal teams in this PAC would not be abusive.

If added immediately, this combination of schools has the potential of dragging Fox in as a TV partner for some of the PAC content to put more of the PAC content on traditional TV. It also dramatically enhances the perceived value of the PAC cumulative media offerings by opening the door to early start games and all day PAC coverage.

I would make an impassioned argument to pursue this combination of teams immediately while they are available and THEN resume media negotiations ---- not the current PAC course of action pursuing a media deal then taking a foolish cursory look at expansion beyond 11.

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Aggressive Pac Expansion to 14/16 Olympic

Add San Diego State, TCU, Texas Tech, and Kansas as well as Olympic-only sports members Gonzaga and UC Davis.

Now we are moving into the kinds of aggressive moves I would champion.

A lot of people do not like any discussion of non-football members. I would politely point out the Gonzaga is on record as having already had discussions with the PAC and the Big 12.

But I get that.

A lot of people I have spoken to at athletic departments and in conferences also hate that conceptually.

In general, football schools are scared of the hybrid model of expansion as was once employed very profitably by the Big East and Conference USA. The only thing that trumps their desire for money is the fear of a loss of control.

Every football school at the FBS level cringed when the basketball Big East suddenly gained the voting majority over their football members.

Now that is clearly an irrational fear for the PAC in this scenario. Adding two Olympic-only members will never destabilize the PAC. Once you can get all of the members over that mental hurdle, you can get people to agree that this kind of expansion is both profitable in the short term and potentially infrastructure building in the long term.

Then all you are dealing with is the feeling that power conferences have that the Olympic schools are getting more value out of the arrangement than they should. To that I would say, “This is the cost of the PAC collectively being stupid in realignment in the past.” Now you have to make some concessions to recover lost ground. It is now ‘the cost of doing business’.

How would it work

The Big East awarded each member school 1/3 of a full share for their Olympic sports and each football playing member an additional 2/3 share. So all sports members would get 1 full share and Olympic members would get 1/3 of a media share.

In Pac terms if all sports members were due $40M per school annually, Gonzaga and UC Davis could get about $13M.

Gonzaga hits me like a short term add. They are ONLY on the PAC radar because their program has become nationally relevant and Gonzaga knows they can walk out on their existing conference and leverage their success better into big money in the PAC or Big 12.

But eventually their coach will leave, their program will revert into what it once was, and their power conference partner will likely give them the boot. I would suspect everyone involved is on the same page there.

Despite Gonzaga being a small market school, I think the addition of Gonzaga basketball games vs. Pac competition would be worth the added $26 Million annually to the media partners.

Gonzaga basketball would elevate the Pacific division in much the same way Kansas would elevate the Inland Division.

...But why Davis as an Olympic Member...? They will never be a Gonzaga in basketball...

They almost certainly won’t, but Davis’s cup isn’t empty. (Yeah, I saw that after I wrote that...)

Sacramento is an NBA city and those tend to be pretty good recruiting hotbeds for high school basketball talent.

I think it is likely they would be able to maybe triple their basketball attendance from 740 to a still miserable 2500 in the PAC even with the Kings competing with them for public ticket sales, based on being in a better conference and on their in-conference PAC opponents’ fans.

I think their TV viewership would be within PAC standards as they have a large alumni base in Sacramento. On the court they could have potential to be at least as good as most PAC schools.

But basketball is not why you add them. To start, Davis is an academic (US News #40) and research (32nd $816M annually) blueblood that Stanford and Cal (The two strongest academic brands in the PAC) would appreciate. They are far enough away not to interefere with the Bay school’s programs and close enough to be a rival.

Davis has a robust enrollment of 32,000 students. They look like an ideal Pac school. And they are in a top 25 media market (#20) with no PAC programs and no pro football.

I know most people view California as a two region state, Southern California (with LA, San Diego, and the Inland Empire) and Northern California (dominated by San Francisco, San Jose, and Oakland) but to my view that is part of the problem of the old PAC 10 and Pac 12. California has conceptually 3 regions of large populations. The Bay Area, Southern Cal and The California Valley region, basically inland California, the agricultural region where 7 million people live. That region is behaviorally different.

I think engaging those people has been a glaring failing of the PAC that is grossly magnified with the loss of the LA schools.

The PAC school’s best asset is California but they haven’t been fully taking advantage of it.

Now you could just promote FBS school Fresno State to get a valley presence, like you are doing with San Diego State, but Fresno is not as athletically strong as San Diego State and also fall short of the PAC’s desired academic and research profiles. More importanly, Fresno is only the a distant second largest city in the region at basically a 1/3 the population of Sacramento so there is no media argument to trump their academic weakness.

Davis on the outskirts of Sacramento is exactly the kind of school the academic leaders in the PAC adore, in the location the PAC would ideally want in order to engage that part of California.

In a roundabout way, this is a long-term move to land the real gem of Davis’ athletic offerings in the PAC level, Davis football at the FBS level, without the adding of Davis football being a total media black eye.

The Football Big East once offered to allow any of their Olympic members to add football at the FCS level. UConn chose to upgrade and became a credible FBS member for several years until their basketball needs unraveled all of that. This move would allow the Pac to similarly “wash” an FCS upgrade.

(And the PAC may not even need to do that. Davis could probably use PAC money to pay for opponents travel and buy their way into a conference like CUSA as a football only member. Once they are invited to play at the FBS level, jumping to the PAC is nothing.)

With no NFL or FBS programs in the Sacramento DMA, Davis football could very quickly ramp up to pulling 40-45,000 fans per game. A UT San Antonio-like attendance growth pattern could fairly be anticipated.

Adding a program like that in a few years in a big market, in a part of California with no existing members, would be immensely helpful with the loss of the LA schools’ media value.

I think the loss of the LA schools clearly illustrates how poorly merchandised the PAC is/was with California schools in big markets and how precarious it is without the LA duo.

Consider for a moment if the PAC had made an offering to include Gonzaga and UC San Diego as Olympic members a decade ago.

There is no NBA team in San Diego. As San Diego State has proven, there was an appetite from the public for “good as possible” basketball in San Diego. If the PAC and UCSD had committed to this, UCSD could have been drawing large crowds too.

The PAC might have been able to add UCSD (an academic and research blueblood) to the conference as a football startup instead of adding the academically forgettable San Diego State.

Now apply that forward 10 years with Davis.

That’s what this basically is...prepping Davis so you aren’t risking being stuck with promoting Fresno State if you play it conservatively and realignment crushes you yet again.

Davis is a school that competes aggressively in a variety of sports. Projecting forward it would be very easy to imagine Davis as one of the better baseball schools in the PAC, a middling football program, and as a very solid basketball school albeit one of the poorer attended ones in the PAC due to the proximity of the NBA Kings.

What I think you would also see is PAC money funneled into football stadium expansions to allow a targeted capacity of 45-50,000 the day their membership is expanded to include football.

So lets say that Gonzaga basketball runs it’s course in the next decade and they don’t leverage the PAC money well...then the Pac votes out Gonzaga and just elevates Davis to a full Pac member.

If Gonzaga does well, the Pac could easily still elevate Davis and plug another UC school in an advantageous California slot into that Olympic only slot...

UC Riverside, for example, would give the PAC a member in the Inland empire --- part of the LA DMA, but not a location that would discourage a future return of the LA schools. There have been many parties interested in building a high end stadium in the Inland Empire.

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Very aggressive PAC expansion to 16 or 18

Add San Diego State, TCU, Texas Tech, Kansas, Rice, and Tulane (and maybe two more)

I know the last grouping was too aggressive for most and I am losing most of my audience by talking about this mix of schools as an even more aggressive move, but bear with me for a couple minutes and I’ll make the reasoning plain.

This group isn’t about what they bring to the table per se, it is about what they do to PAC recruiting, how they improve the view of the PAC as a “native’ Texas conference, how they redefine the PAC as perhaps the conference with the most versatile platform for capturing TV dollars, and who they allow the PAC to pursue down the road from the Big Ten and SEC.

Grand slam plays

To get this, you need to understand that potentially adding the University of Texas was the grand slam play for the PAC. It had been for the last 30 years. That was their end game. UT represented adding all of the TV sets in every Texas Market in an indisputable fashion for just the expense of a single expansion slot. The PAC proved early last decade that they didn’t mind burning even 6 slots if it guaranteed landing UT.

The math was simple.

UT+ USC/UCLA = Big Ten level TV payouts.

This Pac would join their Big Ten partners and the lowly backwater SEC as the “have” conferences.

As soon as UT ate the shit sandwich they prepared themselves and joined the SEC, a conference UT’s administration accurately defined as academically beneath them for decades, the LA schools realized there was no path forward on their terms to make the PAC into a conference able to fully monetize their value.

UT joining the SEC meant the PAC broadcast suitors would still see the PAC as “late night content” ie. after the east coast viewers are asleep.

The TV contracts would be filled with late night game times, making big games relegated to those spots.

Additionally the PAC footprint would remain at about 67M residents (far too small for a power conference) because the PAC’s own academic standards would eliminate any candidates who could right that issue. So the LA schools left.

But I think most people are looking at the PAC now as an entity on life support. I am not saying that is a wrong take. Poor expansion decisions could easily destabilize the conference.

But the end goal hasn’t changed. It is still to join the Big Ten and SEC as the have conferences.

The PAC still has a pathway to the haves table, it just will take work and a lot of thought. They still have their end game scenario and it still involves the state of Texas. It is just different series of dominos to position and requires more than just the cursory understanding of expansion the PAC leaders have operated with over the last 30 years.

The PAC has to commit to a larger expansion today that fulfills their membership’s immediate needs for cash to cover their shortfalls over the last contract (I think the number is roughly $40M per school) and captures the Dallas Market and the state of Texas --- but they also need to satisfy their future needs --- they also need to reaffirm their academic brand and expand into the richest recruiting grounds on the western edge of the SEC footprint.

So why these schools?

In a nutshell ....Academics, media markets, and recruiting.

The PAC has a PR battle to win in Texas. Just adding SMU isn’t going to get you there. Texas Tech, TCU, and Rice would give the PAC a legitimate claim of being a “Texas Conference” just as much as they are a “California Conference”.

This kind of expansion with these schools allows the PAC to turn their academic profile into a dagger of a media narrative to slice UT and A&M with over and over and over. In every game there is an ad for the conference. Imagine this coming out of every TV in Texas.

“The Pac. The Conference of Champions. We aren’t just a collection of random schools playing football. We are a proud academic association of elite undergraduate universities and research powers who happen to accel at sports. 11 of our member universities belong to the AAU, the premiere international association of research Universities. We create the knowledge and cutting edge technologies of tomorrow at PAC Universities. The Pac is where some of the best students in America go to push themselves. We proudly have the highest rated universities in most of our states, including California, Washington, Arizona, and TEXAS. All of our Universities are committed to providing the vigorous education to make you succeed. You’ve worked hard to be the best student you can be. Come join us and become the best version of yourself. Become a Champion.”

This is what adding AAU schools Davis, Rice, and Tulane allow.

Rice is a tiny SMU level program, but this setup gives you a legitimate statewide fanbase, a very strong position in DFW and a comparatively strong presence in Houston where there are only 3 FBS schools, That’s a strong position in the two largest DMA’s in Texas. Rice is silly small, but it allows a narrative of the PAC being Texas’s dominant conference as the SEC, by choice, only has two Texas members.

Play that commercial in every game. It is confirmation to their fans that Texas Tech and TCU made the right decision and will make those fans dig in that the PAC is a Texas conference. Adding Rice to the mix will help the PAC win the PR battle in DFW.

It also makes the point that UT made the wrong choice joining the SEC. How many times can UT administrators hear that before melting down? It screams “You are slumming it in the SEC.” (Aside from UT and A&M only two SEC universities are AAU members.)

To “turn” UT, you need to win over the academics and show the athletic department that the SEC move is failing to deliver what they hoped.

Making Texas recruiting work for the PAC will move UT.

This expansion potentially fixes the PAC recruiting issues that have most PAC schools topping out qualitatively as top 10-12 level teams with little hope of advancing deep in a playoff structure.

It allows the PAC an opportunity to dominate DFW recruiting. It allows PAC schools to pull recruits away from the western SEC schools in the key and very prospect rich Houston and New Orleans/Southern Mississippi talent beds.

All three talent beds produce the hardest to find of assets in college football... the 335 lb athletic defensive tackle. It is the asset that generally separates the contenders from the pretenders in the playoffs.

To understand value of recruiting you have to understand joining the SEC didn’t truly immediately change Texas A&M’s fortunes. Having a Heisman winning player in Johnny Manziel who took them to the edge of title contention did. A&M got $600M in donations from donors the year after Manziel won the Heisman. That is insane.

A&M always had an extremely large fan base of devoted fans, but having an elite talent and winning big opened their checkbooks.

Currently being in the SEC gives almost every SEC school annual access to top 25 recruiting.

This isn’t going to change that. That isn’t the immediate goal. A goal is to give the PAC’s better schools (Oregon, Utah) access to make the jump to become an annual top 25 recruiting team.

History loudly suggests the Pac doesn’t have the talent in their native recruiting grounds in their current footprint to land the annual recruiting classes to win big (get to the championship game or close). And that was before LA was opened to Nebraska and the Big Ten.

This give the PAC control over Dallas and media relevance in the Houston and New Orleans/S. Miss recruiting areas.

If some of the players who would normally go to OU,UT, and A&M are suddenly going to a PAC school, UT moves a little.

What if the big plays in terms of big schools coming in don’t materialize?

Well if this strategy is applied properly, it will generate the desired response, but lets say for some reason it does not...

If this kind of expansion does nothing more than reaffirm the PAC academic brand and turn Oregon and Utah into legit national contenders by adding 3 quality players to their rosters every year from Texas and Louisiana, this expansion will work out well for the PAC.

Far, Far better than sitting at 11 members and getting dusted in the playoffs every year.

Is it financially doable?

The only question is how much of a haircut will the conference take for Rice and Tulane?

if this is a “future, second expansion”, the conference could easily pay them a lesser rate --- say a half share --- until the contract opens up for renegotiation in a few years.

Neither school offers a good football product and both hurt the perception of the conference as a power conference with their limited game attendances, but with the PAC likely to take Amazon or Apple money, that is not a deal breaker. I think both schools would be content to put much of their content on line to get even a $20M media payout annually.

How much would adding those last two schools hurt the PAC brand?

For a brief moment, a bit.

Strategically, I think you would mask their weaknesses to some degree by effectively leapfrogging them over the Big 12 schools with the two schools’ superior academic profiles in a higher rated conference.

Recruiting high school academic stars and offering them PAC exposure and likely 4 years of starting, could be pretty effective. IE...They are likely to be much stronger programs in the PAC than they are today.

They could also aggressively and effectively rob depth from UT, A&M, and Baylor via the transfer portal. “You aren’t playing at UT? Come to Rice/Tulane and get a more valuable degree and get playing time.”

Scheduling primarily weaker teams that draw fairly well locally could hopefully get each school to finish as bowl level teams most years and minimize their turnout problems until better strategies could be applied.

Lets say Rice is playing Texas State, Lamar and either Texas Southern, Houston, A&M, or UT each year as their OOC slate.

Tulane could play S. Miss, Jackson State, and USA, Louisiana, or LSU.

That is only 16...Why 16?

In general conferences want to keep as many slots open as possible.

16 is an easier sell to the PAC leaders than 18. Plus these 16 slots may be the only ones needed. Or maybe the conference leaders may want to do the Olympic thing for the last two slots.

But there are a couple of schools I might target for the 17th and 18th slots in a couple years, but only if needed to drive the necessary behavior. I am working from the assumption both of these schools would be locked in a Big 12 GOR for the length of the upcoming PAC TV deal.

Chronologically, SMU could possibly make sense as a 17th team in a few years. They represent the whip for our targets vs. the carrot.

SMU is likely the team the Big 12 would chose to replace TCU.

SMU has relaunched their program of paying players. They were ridiculously good at that in the 1980′s and could be quite good in 3-4 years. It is highly likely that their small capacity stadium will preclude them from being able to combine exposure and payouts to become the national factor they were in the early 80′s, though.

If they just become an annual bowl team playing in front of 22-27,000 fans they aren’t media relevant enough in Dallas or Texas to merit a spot, so you leave them in the Big 12 and let them syphon as much 3 star depth away from the western SEC schools as they want.

If they suddenly start consistently winning 10-12 games and expand their stadium and start pulling 38-45,000 per game, then they are relevant in Dallas. You add them as team 17 and let them start leveraging PAC membership to allow them to steal 4 & 5 star recruits from the western SEC schools.

SMU is a great undergraduate school --- higher ranked than TCU (US News #72 fourth highest in Texas) with an average ACT score of 31 but they are equally as forgettable as a research school (216th 43M annually). If they did more research they could actually challenge for AAU membership if they chose. They are a very strong academic brand, but IMO not a valuable enough athletic brand at the moment.

Having a slot (#18) to offer Oklahoma State ....if OU comes with them.... could be an effective carrot to lure OU west...especially if OU struggles in the SEC. (I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see OU become a 6-9 win team annually in the SEC. I think their fans could become despondent with that and might want to change venue if the PAC has improved their potential offering to candidate schools by then.)

In Football, OSU is pretty attractive. They have harnessed supplemental recruiting to overperform as a 9-11 win team in the Big 12. They are a similar level candidate to Texas Tech or San Diego State academically, but in the grand scheme of things, not as important to the long term future of the PAC as a school like Tech could be. Simply put a statewide following in Texas is worth a lot more than a statewide following in Oklahoma.

Additionally the PAC expansion I advocate would likely reduce OSU’s depth and increase their travel causing them to slip back to their historical norm of a 7-9 win team annually in football. They aren’t much of an asset in basketball.

OSU’s value to the PAC is if they can bring in OU, because if they can, UT and their allies may very well follow.

So maybe eventually plus SMU and OSU. Maybe OSU and all sports UC Davis. Maybe SMU and UC Davis. Maybe OSU and someone else. Lots of ways you can go with that.

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Why this number of schools? It is too much! What is the strategy?

Lets be clear. Take a look around the FBS world. Who is stable?

The larger conferences in general who had a plan to leverage their roster of assets effectively (The Big Ten and SEC) and who ESPN bundled together to lock in at a discount rate (The 15 member ACC) and the 18 member Sunbelt Conference who made a lot of smart aggressive decisions to position themselves to raid CUSA.

Who isn’t? Who got raided?

The smaller conferences who played it conservatively. The PAC-12 who sat while everyone else expanded. The Big 12 who at the last second avoided adding the four schools they added this year. Houston would have been a great help in retaining UT. The Mountain West Conference you are about to raid. The AAC. And CUSA who expanded without a plan to effectively leverage their member schools for TV.

Eleven does not look like a stable number and the PAC-11 does not look safe from raids down the road. And more to the point, that 11 school mix does nothing to fix the PAC’s longtime media issues.

The goal of this is to come out of it with no more than a 17 or 18 member conference that looks very appealing as a conference home that could allow certain power schools to optimize their brands better than their current power conference homes.

Why no more than 18 schools?

I think optimally due to the huge Oregon to Louisiana footprint I am discribing, a larger membership is preferable as the PAC’s final form.

The Western US is vast. Having more schools allows you to tie distant markets together with as little awkwardness as possible to create an end product that seems coherent to fans and functions well. I think it might very well end up a 24 member conference in this case.

And 24 schools isn’t crazy talk anymore. It isn’t a deal killer. The SEC is at 16 members. The Big Ten is at 16 members with a contract in hand that effectively allows them to add 6 more members when they like for 22 members.

That is where the power conferences are heading. A 16-24 member PAC is just how it might shake out as a power conference.

I think two divisions with 18- 24 total members should be the new end goal of a PAC conference. That should allow them to dominate Texas and California (2 of the country’s 3 huge recruiting territories) .

To pull this off this greater end goal, you need to leave at least 6 and possibly 7 or 8 slots open for the schools from those groups that you are targeting to opt to join.

What schools are you targeting?

The first group is obviously the two LA Schools. For them, this proposed PAC has to deliver Texas TVs and offer early game times to maximize both PAC exposure and eliminate the factors that have lead to the discounting of PAC media product by their broadcast suitors.

I firmly agree with Bill Walton that the move of the LA schools to the Big Ten will be a trainwreck for everything in that basket of LA sports program offerings --- outside of USC football under Lincoln Riley. Graduation rates and competitiveness will immediately bleed out of their programs. Attendance will be abysmal. Recruiting will fall off a cliff for all the other sports in that basket.

The PAC needs to offer an appealing alternative that allows the LA schools to quietly return and come close to maximizing their media value.

And the other cluster?

The other cluster of schools this expansion sets up attaining is the SEC schools reliant on DFW recruiting. Specifically, UT, OU, and Arkansas.

If any of this trio of schools have solid supplemental DFW recruiting, they can be playoff teams. If they don’t, their fans will be unhappy with their results in the SEC.

My thinking is that Texas A&M is likely to also HATE the new SEC and vastly underperform with UT and OU chipping away at the recruits A&M had been getting who just “want to play at an SEC school” but don’t want to leave Texas. I also suspect UT’s little brother will be once more under UT’s control politically now that UT is in the SEC. Bound together again by the Texas Legislature.

So UT, A&M, OU, and Arkansas.

With the PAC redesigned to intentionally pull supplemental recruiting heavily from UT and A&M recruiting grounds and specifically targeting the better student athletes, UT and A&M will be faced with a choice, one I very much enjoy as a Texan and a former student at UT...

Do they want to be marginal SEC schools pumping up the payouts for the SEC elite or do they want to “come home” and make similar money while reasserting themselves as national powers in what would at that point be a largely Texas based conference?

(I had mentioned a potential 7th or 8th school. The 7th school in this scenario is LSU. LSU has no real ties to UT. LSU is an SEC blueblood, but facing a PAC with the two Los Angeles schools and basically a lock hold of Texas’s best schools, LSU’s leadership could feel forced to think economically, especially with the PAC schools having access to LSU’s best recruiting grounds via Tulane. If LSU wants in, you absolutely need to make a spot for them.

The 8th is a surprising possibility. Nebraska. Nebraska can’t keep piling up 5-8 win seasons indefinitely without the whole state going on suicide watch. The Big Ten is clearly an inadequate home for Nebraska football.

Nebraska has failed miserably to deliver value for the Big Ten. The addition of the LA schools should help Nebraska short term, but if the LA schools leave for the new PAC, there could be a very realistic opportunity and sufficient money to pull in a crest fallen Nebraska...especially if OU is in the picture..

The Big Ten may be more then comfortable to allow this and offer Nebraska’s slot to a school like Clemson, Miami, or even a values candidate they didn’t have a slot for like a long written off darkhorse like research superpower Pitt or a school like Vanderbilt.)

Potential fallout

The great thing about this plan is it is all teams opting in, not a clandestine political move.

The Big Ten might be ready to go to war with the PAC if the PAC tried to steal back UCLA today and muddy up the Big Ten Media deal, but after the the LA schools fail miserably due to travel exhaustion and poor game attendance and start to look like another Nebraska misstep, the Big Ten might be more than willing to let at least UCLA walk and instead turn their resources towards ACC schools as that GOR expires.

If USC and UCLA are in and the PAC has the 16 members listed, the move from the SEC is to that new PAC 18 is financially pretty close to a parallel move for UT and friends.

That plan gives the PAC access to California and Texas recruiting and allows the Big ten to share Florida’s recruiting abundance with the SEC. It ends the gross dominance the SEC has had on football recruiting for the last decade.

Finally it gets the PAC and the Big Ten to an optimal end goal of owning the controlling vote of the THREE power conferences. No more deferring to the SEC at all.

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georgetownacsjobs · 5 years

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Small Business Advisor, at Washington Area Community Investment Fund

POSITION OVERVIEW

Washington Area Community Investment Fund (WACIF) invites applications to fill two positions for Small Business Advisor. The Small Business Advisor will provide high quality coaching and capacity building technical assistance (TA) to entrepreneurs and small business owners, which includes developing business, marketing and financial plans, preparing loan applications, and providing resources and information on how to start or grow businesses and access procurement opportunities.

The Small Business Advisor will assess customer needs and respond in a variety of ways to create effective solutions for the client to create economic impact. The Small Business Advisor will make direct visits to client companies and resource network partners and assists in conducting training programs, outreach, and public relations activities for the organization. The position will operate from two locations in Washington, DC.

REPORTS TO:

Director, Programs & Small Business Services

DUTIES & RESPONSIBILITIES

Under direct supervision of the Director for Programs & Small Business Services, the Small Business Advisor provides one-on-one confidential client consultations in the areas of small business development (business formation, business planning, marketing, sales, financing, procurement), preparing loan applications, and providing resources and information on how to start, sustain, and grow businesses. The Small Business Advisor will provide high quality coaching to entrepreneurs and business owners and educating clients regarding market feasibility, cash management, and access to capital. The Small Business Advisor provides group training sessions (workshops and seminars) on business topics for clients and the public and may represent Wacif at business expositions and panel.

The Small Business Advisor should carry out the following tasks:

Conduct effective, confidential one-on-one client advisement service for small business clients in office and at client’s sites

Provide solutions to customers in response to identified needs including research, advising, training, and education in specific, functional areas of small business development such as business formation, business planning, marketing, sales, financing, and other small business issues and challenges

Assist with client's preparation loan application packaging.

Possess a proficient knowledge of writing and evaluating professional business plans

Plans and deliver appropriate business workshops, in accordance with established goals and deliverables

Prepare and maintain accurate counseling evaluations and written narratives in the Outcome Tracker system

Prepare appropriate training summary reports from business workshops in accordance with Small Business Administration (SBA) requirements and internal, standardized report forms

Assist with maintenance of current email/mailing list for Wacif’s TA communications

Prepare and disseminate appropriate promotional and advertising materials regarding Wacif’s TA initiatives, programs, and services.

Maintain working knowledge of government procurement to effectively assist clients

Participate in training programs for professional development and may attend paid programs (pending Director’s approval and funding)

Attend business industry events to generate referrals from external resource organizations and private sector network of assistance providers, to meet potential clients, and to foster relationships with business resource partners (lenders, chambers of commerce, business and professional trade associations, etc.)

Assist with the social media outreach efforts

Support and work with partner organizations to organize and deliver workshops to businesses in metropolitan Washington DC area

Assist with outreach and public relations, as needed

Prepare articles on client successes for public release, as directed

Required to work extended hours including weekends to conduct and participate in workshops, conferences, seminars, and other TA program related activities

Other duties as assigned by appropriate supervisory personnel

JOB KNOWLEDGE, QUALIFICATIONS & SKILLS REQUIRED

Bachelor’s degree from an accredited institution required

At minimum, 3 years of experience in small business technical assistance

Knowledge and understanding of the principles and practices of small business operations.

Ability to develop basic business plans, marketing plans, financial strategies, and business loan applications.

Ability to develop and present educational programs and/or workshops.

Knowledge of the characteristics and prerequisites of a successful business loan application.

Deep familiarity with and ability to analyze financial statements

Solid knowledge of the SBA’s Microloan, Community Advantage, and/or 7(A) loan programs, preferred.

Excellent oral, written, verbal and interpersonal communication skills with special attention to detailed editing of promotional materials, website and print pieces

Excellent public speaking, organizational, and problem-solving skills and abilities

Exceptional customer service

Fluency with Microsoft Office suite

Experience customer relationship management systems, WordPress, event registration platforms, and/or marketing automation systems is preferred

About the Washington Area Community Investment Fund (Wacif)

Since its inception in 1987, the Washington Area Community Investment Fund (Wacif) has closed nearly 400 loans totaling more than $32 million in strategic financing for small business startup and growth, affordable housing developments and cooperatives, and childcare and community facilities throughout the Washington, DC, metropolitan region. Wacif is a nonprofit Community Development Financial Institution (CDFI), and over the past five years has closed nearly 130 loans totaling $8 million, assisted over 2,000 entrepreneurs with small business coaching and technical assistance, resulting in over 300 local jobs created or retained.

COMPENSATION

Salary will range will vary with experience from $50,000 to $70,000. Medical, Dental, Vision, Life & Disability coverage available. Retirement plan (some employer contribution & matching); paid vacation (increased with tenure), holiday and sick leave days.

TO APPLY: Interested candidates should email a resume/CV, thoughtful cover letter that outlines how your skills and experience meet the qualifications of the position, and salary requirements to [email protected] with “Small Business Advisor” in the subject line.

Wacif is an equal opportunity employer and welcomes candidates from diverse backgrounds. We thank all those who apply, but only shortlisted candidates will be contacted. No calls please. Telephone inquiries will not be accepted.

#HireAHoya #Jobs #Careers

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missmonogamy-blog · 6 years

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FINDING THE PERFECT WEDDING SHOES

Who might have believed that one wedding frill would cause such a large number of ladies so much pressure?

Truly, there are more issues and difficulties identified with this one buy than all else at your wedding.

Here are some straightforward strides to dispense with your worry in purchasing shoes for your huge day:

Nobody ever discusses this! Is your life partner shorter than you? Or then again a similar tallness?

Perhaps pads are your most solid option, so you don't overshadow them. The inverse can be genuine as well. Is your life partner taller than you?

Impeccable Wedding Guide - Wedding Advice - pads for lady of the hour - dark colored wedding shoes for man of the hour - wedding arranging exhortation

Where Are You Getting Married?

The footwear that takes a shot at the shoreline will be vastly different than shoes for a congregation wedding.

feet of lady of the hour and man of the hour, wedding shoes, wedges for a shoreline wedding - picking the correct shoes for a shoreline wedding

Purchase Your Wedding Gown First

Purchasing your wedding outfit first will assist you with making this critical style decision. Would you like to make a strong look or have a ton of fun and pick something fun and extraordinary?

lady of the hour with red shoes - adding style to your wedding outfit - shoes as a vivid wedding embellishment

Your wedding shoes are one buy you would prefer not to make on the web. Locate a neighborhood store, go in and contact them, check the fit and make sure to stroll in them. You will be on your feet for 6+ hours, so you need to ensure the fit is correct.

Your wedding shoes are the shoes you need to make certain to break in. You need to ensure they are agreeable and that you scrape up the sole enough that you won't slip while strolling down the passageway.

Changes

This piece is enormous, and a great many people neglect it. You need to ensure that you have chosen your wedding shoes before having modifications done on your wedding dress. Take the shoes to your fittings, so your outfit is changed to the correct length.

Flawless Wedding Guide - marriage design - wedding outfit - marriage outfit - bridesmaids-wedding party - bridesmaids dresses - white wedding outfits

Moving Shoes

The last tip is to get an incredible pair of shoes for moving. Something level and agreeable. Make certain to take those to your fitting, so they work with the length of your wedding outfit, after modifications.

While your wedding shoes are something the vast majority won't see under your wedding outfit; however, it is an adornment you would prefer not to ignore.

CHAMPAGNE BLUSH AND BURGUNDY

Simply pondering it makes me grin in light of the fact that my response was the best. I took a gander at him and stated, "are you joking????" It was such a unique minute loaded up with such a large number of feelings.

Not long after we got ready for marriage, we began arranging our wedding and immediately I realized I needed a December/winter wedding. I began to look all starry eyed at the champagne, become flushed, and burgundy hues and that is actually what I went for. I needed a style to it. The majority of the hues that were utilized were ones that I've constantly cherished and imagined them together was extremely simple to do as such I realized that was it.

To the extent my dress, I realized I would not like to wear all white, I realized I needed a ball outfit, something that had a great deal of detail however yet kept its effortlessness which is the thing that I found in my dazzling ivory dress.

Armenian lady of the hour in ballgown dressing with her mom

I additionally wore a church building cover with it which truly made my whole wedding look. My cleaning specialist of respect wore become flushed and my bridesmaids wore biscotti, the blend of our hues was an incredible complexity.

Genuine Wedding - Perfect Wdding Guide - marriage party in become flushed and champagne bridesmaids dresses

When they state it flies by so appreciate the arranging and particularly the day, it's valid. The day immediately drew closer and before the night's over, I couldn't trust it was at that point over.

It was a great time, loaded up with so much love, bliss, and moving. As Armenians, we had the majority of our conventional tunes and instruments and our passageway as lady of the hour and man of the hour was additionally customary and truly noteworthy.

Armenian lady of the hour leaving for wedding with marriage gathering and drummer

Some counsel that I can provide for a future lady of the hour and husband to be that are really busy arranging is that it will get upsetting and there is such a great amount to do however don't let that ever remove you from the master plan.

Advise yourself this is a festival of your affection and your association and as long as you two are having a good time, everybody that is there with you will appreciate the day too.

I for one would remember my whole wedding day in the event that I could, everything fell together splendidly, I couldn't have requested more

We trust you settled on the choice to contract a free wedding organizer to enable you to explore your wedding arranging subtleties.

If not, we get it! (not so much) You need authority over your wedding arranging, you need it to be YOUR day, or you don't assume you have the financial plan for a wedding organizer.

Wedding organizer and lady of the hour - Perfect Wedding Guide - Prefect Wedding Guide Vendors - wedding organizer - wedding day facilitator - wedding

Notwithstanding, we trust that a Day-of-Coordinator is still high on the rundown of needs for your big day.

We swung to Lisa Kim, of Kentlands Mansion in our Perfect Wedding Guide Washington DC market to separate it for you. This is what Lisa needs to state:

You've booked the setting you had always wanted, sent the solicitations, discovered the ideal dress… presently what? That is the fun stuff, presently you need somebody to do the snort stuff. Enter the Day-of-Coordinator.

Many individuals inquire as to whether it's justified, despite all the trouble to contract a Day-of-Coordinator. I answer by asking how they imagine their exceptional day. Would you like to savor each experience with friends and family or do you incline toward getting sweat-soaked setting up improvements and guiding everybody to where everything goes… .?

Having encouraged several weddings, trust us when we disclose to you the second is the conceivable situation in the event that you don't put resources into a Day-of Coordinator. Without another person accountable for coordinations, you will invest your energy advising individuals how to mastermind the focal points, the DJ when to play your passageway tune, and the hold up staff what time to serve supper. With every one of the subtleties that you've worried over amid your arranging, the LAST thing you need is for somebody to fail to understand the situation and swing to you to fix it – in your ideal (or flawlessly damp with sweat) wedding dress!

Most couples need to put their exceptional addresses their enormous day – with hues, subjects, sustenance decisions, and the sky is the limit from there. They know their needs, so prefer to deal with the financial plan and subtleties. In any case, with regards to the real wedding day, who would you be able to solicit to execute all from your point by point plans? You need your family and companions to appreciate the gathering, as well.

That is the thing that we adore about the Day-of-Coordinator. You're paying for what you need – somebody to deal with you and your subtleties on your extraordinary day.

You'll need to book one something like 3 months before your wedding. As wedding specialists, they can prescribe diverse merchants and help you elaborately. Be that as it may, their genuine work starts about a month prior to the wedding – making the timetable, affirming subtleties, and working with merchants. At that point, on your big day – they'll help prepare everything and deal with every one of the pieces.

A decent Day-of-Coordinator will have your wedding running easily and ensure you and your life partner have been spoiled for the duration of the day.

What is the cost of this genuine feelings of serenity?

Day-of-Coordination expenses can fluctuate broadly, contingent upon your area, the dimension of your organizer's involvement, and explicit obligations doled out. We have discovered costs extending from hundreds to thousands of dollars.

Some higher end cooks offer this administration as a component of their bundle (purchaser be careful – ensure that they are really dealing with the majority of the day-of administrations and not simply the sustenance/administration parcel).

Wedding organizer and lady of the hour - Perfect Wedding Guide - Prefect Wedding Guide Vendors - wedding organizer - wedding day facilitator - wedding

A few settings additionally offer this as a feature of the scene expenses. Once more make certain of what you're truly getting. Scene Managers are typically principally there to ensure setting rules are being pursued.

Day-of-Coordinator administrations ought to incorporate all that you'll requirement for a calm day of commending your adoration with everybody you cherish.

All things considered, getting hitched is a deep rooted choice so ensure your long lasting recollections are sweet, not sweat-soaked.

There are astounding, experienced Wedding Planners offering Day-Of-Coordination benefits in each Perfect Wedding Guide showcase the nation over.

We trust you think about one for your big day!

#wedding #cendid wedind #best candid wedding photography

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mohammad14vinding-blog · 6 years

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When You're Held Back For Anxiety You Might Surpass In charge.

The annoyed girlfriend made a decision to expose his infidelity on film as well as shared the minute she got him back back all over the internet. Then I bore in mind that my spouse had made me cheese sandwiches that day so I produced the cling movie as well as stated, 'the only waste here comes from my sarnie wrappers'. He overlooks his kids, his partner, his church and his work as he focuses an increasing number of on Alicia, his online friend. If both partners are ready to endanger, the Scorpio guy and also Virgo lady can build a solid partnership. The story didn't begin till web page 354 when after great deals of connection issues and s they ultimately showed up in Ireland. Loan is a forbidden subject, as a whole, and also couples-- especially new ones who are still navigating the sloppy waters of a progressing relationship-- do not like to talk about the financial circumstances they may be in. Yet these discussions are required. The periodic rapid has been shown to result in a lot of the benefits we've already talked about, so also if you do not use it to cut down on calories constantly there are still several various other health and wellness benefits. Its concepts are dated currently, however the truth is the connection between business and consumer has evolved as well as could advance even more. Leo has the tendency to glamorize everything (assume Joey Tribbiani from Pals) and also wishes to be the focal point. He agrees to make whatever backdoor political bargains could get him closer to Washington; he is as ready to take the situations of servant owners as he is to protect run away slaves; as well as he will abandon his friend in order to keep tranquility at house with his wife. However, changes in partners' perceptions of actor's responsiveness led to their increased responsiveness to actors and compassionate goals the following week. New Friend is amusing trash that we discover ourselves engrossed because we hate to admit it. Mia Kirsher provides an excellent efficiency as Alicia, a college lady that overdoses under questionable circumstances as well as the prime suspects are her new top class filthy rich pals. Self-indulgent narrative sympathizes boldy with inefficient central connection and aims to encourage visitor that claimed dysfunctional central relationship is not abusive by resolving this hazard of abuse via the lens of characters set up by the narrative to be villainous/bitchy/slutty. As you spend time with Me, your ideas tend to jump ahead to today's plans as well as troubles. I know that to you those Twelve Month appear like a very long time and you can really feel the range slipping between you as well as this young boy who is still at college, but he still holds the power to turn his life around - it's simply that the much longer he waits to do it, the much less likely that you and also your various other close friends will certainly play a part because life. http://www.buyitdirect-my.com have a possibility to miss out on each various other, and also it aids you truly understand the value of your relationship. Think of recommendations or feedback as information - option. But do not hit the various other individual over the head with it. No significant connection was located between loneliness and also sociability; anxiety and also sociability. Clinical depression and also loneliness are thought about to be the major troubles leading to impaired lifestyle among seniors. The rest of the actors are either bothersome by their own initiatives or disappointing due to exactly how little they offer the table. It's a lot easier to maintain something like that on course if you don't just seek advice when you have actually got to dilemma point," she claimed. Otherwise, remark listed below as well as I will aim to collect some particular concepts just for your boss. Stephen Harrigan has completely recorded a guy we all A Pal of Mr. Lincoln by Stephen Harrigan is without a doubt a magnificent read. So unpleasant & unusual like a life time movie. She completely told this sorry prior to and also has once more she informed an extremely comparable tale in Justin's book with the attorney and also assistant. However we need to have even more freedom in the connection-- for the most parts, we're discussing placing more democracy right into commercialism. It additionally shows up that job could be quite a lonely area too: 42% of people stated they had no close friends at work. Thoughtful objectives and perceptions of roomies' responsiveness, though associated, are also empirically distinct. Kafka wished for his whole world to continue to be exclusive-- he never finished any of his books as well as burned the majority of his manuscripts; the rest he entrusted his closest good friend and literary administrator, Max Brod, whom he instructed to melt the continuing to be journals, manuscripts, sketches, and also letters. The two, although superficially independent of each other, are realistically connected by the truth that the private physician practices within the monopolistic framework that identifies the connection between the career (which the medical professional is a participant) as well as culture all at once. A Goat guy will often become friends with a female prior to considering a romantic relationship with her. My Papa, born in the late 50's in country Illinois, really did not take a shower in a connected restroom at his moms and dads home till his wedding day at age 25. There were 3 television channels. In BUDDY OF BILL, Lizzy Caplan plays an author jailed for public intoxication, who is compelled to take a sabbatical in order to kick her alcoholism. If you're a telecommuter in need of workplace away from loud children, ask see if a buddy has unused room throughout the day. Many people recuperate from psychological health problems without having to go into health center. Employer is book two in Chianti Kisses series and also concentrates a large amount on Dom's point of view. That is, objectives and also objectives predict people's relationship habits and just how they analyze companions' actions, which consequently, feed back to forecast goals and objectives. Clare Alexander, a literary representative that worked for Twenty Years as an author, stated five years ago employers at Penguin would certainly have spoken with electronic gurus". This is the verdict to Like An Employer where we were left on an almighty cliffhanger. Once you obtain genuine regarding your connection as well as consider it for all that it is - as well as all that it isn't - there are some concerns that are just too significant to forget.

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northstarreserve · 1 day

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#reserve study #hoa #finance

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georgetownacsjobs · 6 years

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Associate-Public Policy, Keybridge LLC, Washington DC

ABOUT KEYBRIDGE

Founded in 2001, Keybridge is a boutique economic and public policy consulting firm comprised of three practice areas: Macroeconomics, Public Policy, and Social Responsibility & Accountability. We serve as economists, policy experts, and strategic advisers to a diverse clientele that includes Fortune 500 companies, global financial firms, federal government agencies, leading trade associations, non-profit organizations, and other institutions that operate at the intersection of economic and public policy.

We provide our clients with a suite of analytical and advisory services, ranging from economic modeling and investment analysis to policy design and strategic planning. We are known for our creative thinking and data-driven approach to addressing complex problems, as well as our ability to convert complex information into clear, accessible, and actionable insights. Keybridge takes pride in developing long-term relationships with clients that position us to operate as a natural extension of their organization and serve as trusted advisers on issues at the intersection of economics and public policy.

POSITION SUMMARY

We’re seeking a highly motivated individual with deep intellectual curiosity and a passion for public policy and economics to join our team. This is a strong mid-level role at a growing firm where you will be asked to roll up your sleeves and help shape the future of the Public Policy Practice.

As an Associate, you will work with other members of the Public Policy Practice to manage and deliver analytical and consulting services to federal government clients. You will be expected to exercise advanced problem-solving skills and creativity, and to apply economic concepts and analytical approaches to real-world problems. We’ve found that successful candidates are able to work simultaneously and independently across multiple subject-matter areas, quickly learning new topics or methods as needed. Current areas of focus for our team and clients include disaster risk perception, insurance, and mitigation; and the application of data analytics and behavioral insights to communications strategies.

This position will provide you with opportunities to develop expertise in evolving topic areas and apply new skills in the context of an up-tempo work environment. You will work alongside a creative, inter-disciplinary team of policy professionals and engaged clients, breaking new ground in terms of the tactics, tools, and insights our clients use to carry out their mission.

This position may require a federal government background check.

POSITION RESPONSIBILITIES

As an Associate you will be expected to:

Maintain a solid and expanding knowledge base around issues relevant to client projects.

Participate in team brainstorming sessions to identify clients’ analytical and strategic needs.

Conduct economic, data, and public policy analysis, including identifying data requirements, designing analytical approaches, and applying a mix of qualitative and quantitative methods.

Translate complex analytical results into clear and compelling insights.

Develop presentations and written reports for technical and non-technical audiences, utilizing charts, dashboards, infographics, and other forms of data visualization.

Assist project leaders with formulating project work plans, including realistic timelines, budgets, and resource allocations.

Execute project work plans, including coordinating internal work efforts, ensuring that deadlines and objectives are met, and assisting project leaders with progress reports.

Coordinate and collaborate with other consultants and teaming partners to execute projects.

Provide oversight to junior staff, including delegating tasks, offering feedback, and instructing on analytical frameworks and methods.

EXPERIENCE & QUALIFICATIONS

The ideal candidate will possess the following attributes:

Advanced degree in economics, public policy, business, data analytics, or related field with at least two years of work experience in economic research, public policy analysis or consulting field; or related undergraduate degree with approximately three to five years experience in economic research, public policy analysis, or consulting field.

Passion for public policy and the application of economic tools to policy challenges.

Demonstrated quantitative skills, including knowledge of statistics, econometrics, and problem-solving frameworks.

Strong written and oral communication skills, including experience with effectively communicating to both technical and non-technical audiences.

Naturally curious personality with a drive to understand how the world works.

Meticulous attention to detail, with a proven track record of producing high quality and client-ready work.

Ability to operate collaboratively within a team environment while also moving work forward independently as needed.

Proven ability to multi-task in a professional service environment that often requires last minute adjustments to team and client priorities.

Collegial attitude, positive outlook, and a good sense of humor.

COMPENSATION AND BENEFITS

Keybridge is prepared to offer an attractive compensation package that includes a competitive base salary, incentive compensation, employer-paid health and dental insurance, and employer-matched retirement savings accounts.

Keybridge provides equal employment opportunity to all individuals regardless of their race, color, creed, religion, gender, age, sexual orientation, national origin, disability, veteran status, or any other characteristic protected by state, federal, or local law. Individuals from all backgrounds are strongly encouraged to apply.

TO APPLY

Email resume and cover letter to [email protected] with subject line: Associate – Public Policy. Be prepared to provide references, transcript, and a writing sample upon request. No phone calls please. All candidates must be authorized to work in the United States.

#hireahoya #guaa #keybridge #publicpolicy #associate #publicpolicyeconomics

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psychsavant · 3 years

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Saving our once-beautiful planet

George Washington was referred to as the father of our country. I believe anyone who occupies the office of US President has an inherent responsibility to make decisions for the nation and govern in ways that support and promote prosperity and well-being for its people. In essence, we should think of the person holding this office as a good, stable and caring parent. Anything less, is the same as growing up with a dysfunctional, abusive mom and dad.

We do not have the luxury of these solid principles functioning in today's administration, unfortunately. We as Americans are flailing due to a virus, but also because triage care has not been instituted to get us on our feet economically~ in fact, it's just the opposite.

The Green Deal is a long range fix that's been proposed to restore predictable climate conditions, yet the cost to us who are trying to survive NOW, and generations to come, is astronomical. We have no proof whatsoever. that it will even work.

Big industry has likely contributed to climate change, but more importantly, the felling of forests and jungles all over the world in order to plant trees that produce palm oil, is the greatest deterrent to our ability to sustain this planet.

Trees and plant life give us oxygen and protect the environment, yet millions of pine trees are chopped down every single year, to satisfy the public's selfish craving for a couple of weeks of decoration, around Christmas time.

The way I see it, Industry and taking advantage of rich, natural resources has not been counter-balanced, due to hundreds of years of destroying forestation. We sadly lament about gargantuan acres of trees being burned in forest fires~ yet we decimate our forests every single year around the start of December, to engage in a ceremonious ritual that kills living, oxygen-giving trees!

I propose we stop buying live Christmas trees. Have all the people who fell em and SELL em PLANT them, instead. They'll still earn a good living, and we will ultimately restore our environment, so that it can WITHSTAND whatever "progress" throws at it.

I have begun boycotting anything made with palm oil. I don't care what it is, if it has palm oil in it, I won't buy it~ because it means the death and destruction of jungles, forests, and all wildlife that depend on these natural habitats to live.

We seem to feel it's okay to shut down big business, to satisfy our prurient "altruism" for our planet's sake, but are we willing to NOT buy a live tree each year around Christmas time?? Can we make this tiny sacrifice, in order to re-forest our country and save our planet??

I think of the issue this way: Let's say, I love sugar. I'm a real sweet-freak. But 90% of the time, I eat healthy, wholesome foods. I figure it all balances out, and while I might indulge my sweet tooth, I'm also mindful of giving my body what it needs to thrive. My ability to stay healthy and strong, depends on this careful counter-balancing of foods I consume. If I exclusively indulged my sugar cravings, I'd be in bad shape. This is our world right now!

De-forestation is the primary cause of our planet's climate issues, and IT'S SO DAMNED UNNECESSARY! It's gonna take some time to fix this, because big, beautiful trees don't grow all that fast, but it sure as fuck seems like a much better resolution, than what Sleepy Joe Biden has proposed for us, and how going all-electric will financially bankrupt 80% of the families living in America!

Look at your electric bill this summer when you're having to run your air conditioner. Mine's around $12 a month, since having solar installed on my roof~ but my seasonal bills were well over $300 a month, during the warm seasons beforehand.

Are you ready to surrender your CAR for an electric vehicle? What will it cost to charge that damned thing every few days~ or haven't you considered that??

This world of ours has had extreme weather conditions since before Christ. The Ice Age killed a lot of living things~ or we'd still have dinosaurs roaming our streets! We've had freezing cold winters, and hot humid summers for eons, and these extreme seasonal changes were not man-made in response to coal mining and Big Industry!

Should we try to reduce our use of plastic? Sure! Especially because idiotic, selfish people use our oceans as trash cans, and endanger sea life while they're at it.

My point is, we do not have to resort to extreme measures to "save our planet." We only have to think in broader terms, and find the willingness to make small compromises toward its restoration.

I have a beautiful faux Christmas tree replete with tiny lights that can be changed in color with a remote control. It looks genuine, it gets stored back in my garage each January, and there's no muss or fuss with it.

How about if our government gave every household a decent amount of money, say 5 or 6 hundred, toward the purchase of a beautiful, faux Christmas tree? Can you imagine how much money you'd be saving over the course of just several years, if ya didn't buy a live tree each December??

I've always been oriented toward practical solutions for intricate problems. This is my practical solution for saving our planet. Now, do ya think your ego can stand to make this small sacrifice this coming Christmas, so you can feel better about doing YOUR part to bring about climate change?

Try to realize that when Big Business is taxed, the trickle down hurts us consumers! It takes huge amounts of gasoline to get food to our markets. Who do you think has to pay far more for goods due to heavier shipping costs, NOW?

Our cost of living is going thru the roof, because when we are Consumers, the Providers who have to shoulder big tax hikes pass along that extra financial burden to US. It's the only way They can survive.

Try and think Bigger Picture, folks. There's always a practical solution to every problem, and Biden's plan isn't it~ in fact, it's pure lunacy.

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orbemnews · 3 years

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Big Tech Firms Seek Federal Funding for Chip Manufacturing: Live Updates Here’s what you need to know: President Biden has called for $50 billion to encourage domestic semiconductor production as part of his infrastructure plan.Credit…Doug Mills/The New York Times Semiconductor companies and big businesses that use chips have formed a new coalition to push for tens of billions of dollars in federal funding for semiconductor research and manufacturing in the United States. The new group, the Semiconductors in America Coalition, announced its formation on Tuesday amid a global semiconductor shortage that has caused disruptions throughout the economy. Its members include chip makers like Intel, Nvidia and Qualcomm and companies that rely on semiconductors, like Apple, Google, Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, Verizon and AT&T. The coalition is calling on Congress to provide $50 billion for semiconductor research and manufacturing, which President Biden has proposed as part of his $2.3 trillion infrastructure package. “Leaders from a broad range of critical sectors of the U.S. economy, as well as a large and bipartisan group of policymakers in Washington, recognize the essential role of semiconductors in America’s current and future strength,” said John Neuffer, the president and chief executive of the Semiconductor Industry Association, a trade group. In a letter to congressional leaders, the new coalition noted the shortage of semiconductors and said that in the long term, federal funding “would help America build the additional capacity necessary to have more resilient supply chains to ensure critical technologies will be there when we need them.” The shortage has been acutely felt in the auto industry, forcing carmakers to idle plants. Ford Motor expects the shortage to cause profit to be about $2.5 billion lower this year and to cut vehicle production by about 50 percent in the second quarter. The new coalition does not include any automakers, which have their own ideas for how the government should encourage domestic semiconductor manufacturing. In a letter to congressional leaders last week, groups representing automakers, automotive suppliers and autoworkers expressed support for Mr. Biden’s $50 billion proposal but emphasized the need to increase production capacity for automotive grade chips as part of the effort. The letter — from the American Automotive Policy Council, the Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association and the United Automobile Workers union — suggested providing “specific funding for semiconductor facilities that commit to dedicating a portion of their capacity to motor vehicle-grade chip production.” In a letter to congressional leaders last month, technology trade groups argued against setting aside new production capacity for a specific industry, saying that such a move would amount to “unprecedented market interference.” Macy’s wants to build an office tower atop its Herald Square location.Credit…FXCollaborative Macy’s is proposing the construction of a commercial office tower on top of its flagship Herald Square store in New York as part of a broader redevelopment plan that would aim to improve the surrounding area and its subway stations. The retailer said in a statement on Monday that it would commit $235 million to help improve the Herald Square subway stations and to “transform Herald Square and Broadway Plaza into a modern, car-free pedestrian-friendly urban space for New Yorkers and visitors,” according to a website it created for the proposed project. Before Macy’s proposal can move ahead, the area needs to be rezoned to allow the new structure to be built atop the retailer’s iconic Herald Square store, which opened more than 100 years ago and would remain open during any new construction. The project would also need to go through an approval process with the city. Macy’s added that it was eager to begin a public review process on the project and that it would “work closely with local officials, Manhattan Community Board 5, the 34th Street Partnership and other community stakeholders on final designs.” Macy’s, which released renderings of the proposed building and pedestrian area, said that it supported the construction of the office space as part of an expected boom in new office jobs in New York this year. The beleaguered retailer added that the city was expecting a return to prepandemic office employment levels by the fourth quarter, and it estimated that its proposal would generate more than $250 million in new tax revenue for the city while supporting nearly 16,300 jobs. “Take care of yourself, and if you don’t already have a good support system, develop one,” Joni Ratts said.Credit…Jenna Schoenefeld for The New York Times For millions of retirement savers, the pandemic was a gut punch. There was the jarring stock market drop in March 2020, then millions lost their jobs, health insurance and ability to fund their savings. The pandemic stymied adults who hadn’t started saving for retirement, the number of workers taking withdrawals from their 401(k)s last year jumped, and some companies cut their 401(k) matching contributions. John F. Wasik, a writer for The New York Times, spoke with financial advisers about the seven steps people can take now to catch up on their retirement savings: Track your total spending. Spending has the biggest impact and is the input you have the most control over, said Clari Nolet, a certified financial planner and certified divorce financial analyst. Focus on health insurance. When many people lose their jobs, they lose health insurance coverage for themselves and family. Those laid off can often continue their insurance under a COBRA plan, said Lori Price, a certified financial planner — but it can be onerously expensive. Make catch-up contributions. If you’re 50 or older, the Internal Revenue Service gives you a little savings plum: You can save as much as an extra $6,500 annually in your defined contribution plans (which include 401(k)s, 403(b)s and 457s). Automate your savings. If you’re working and offered a 401(k) with automatic payroll withdrawals, you can simply increase your contribution. Want to save even more? Many plans allow you to increase your 401(k) savings when you get a raise. Adjust your portfolio. Just socking more money into a bank money-market account won’t help you catch up much at all. Yields on money markets are awful — the top rate nationally was 0.60 percent, according to Bankrate.com. Retire later. If you’re able, one simple strategy is to retire after the “normal” age for Social Security benefits, which is 66 for most Americans. That will give you more time to save. Social Security will even pay you more each month if you wait until 70 to collect benefits. Set up your own plan. Small-business owners or those who are self-employed can set up their own plans, from Simplified Employee Pension I.R.A.s to 401(k)s. Dogfish Head Craft Brewery is struggling to hire manufacturing workers for its beer factory and staff members for its restaurants.Credit…Alyssa Schukar for The New York Times As employers race to hire before an expected summertime economic boom, they are voicing a complaint that is echoing all the way to the White House: They cannot find enough workers to fill their open positions and meet the rising customer demand. Many managers are unwilling to raise wages and prices enough to keep up, as they worry that demand will ebb in a few months and leave them with permanently higher payroll costs. They are instead resorting to short-term fixes, like cutting hours, instituting sales quotas and offering signing bonuses to get people in the door, Jeanna Smialek and Jim Tankersley report for The New York Times. In and around Rehoboth Beach, Del., at least 10 people, managers and workers alike, cited expanded payments as a key driver of the labor shortage, though only two of them personally knew someone who was declining to work to claim the benefit. In Delaware, Wawa gas stations sport huge periwinkle blue signs advertising $500 signing bonuses, plus free “shorti” hoagies each shift for new associates. A local country club is offering referral bonuses and opening up jobs to members’ children and grandchildren. A regional home builder has instituted a cap on the number of houses it can sell each month as everything — open lots, available materials, building crews — comes up short. Scott Kammerer oversees a local hospitality company that includes a brewery and restaurants. He has been able to staff adequately by offering benefits and taking advantage of the fact that he retained some workers because his restaurants did not close fully or for very long during the pandemic. But he has also raised wages. The company’s starting non-tip pay rates have climbed to $12 from $9 two years ago. Mr. Kammerer has not been forced to raise prices to cover increasing costs, because business volume has picked up so much — up 40 percent this year compared with a typical winter — that profits remain solid. Source link Orbem News #Big #Chip #Federal #firms #funding #Live #manufacturing #Seek #Tech #Updates

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sciencespies · 3 years

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Op-ed | Blank checks c/o the stars: Market analysis given short shrift as companies cash in on SPAC spree

https://sciencespies.com/space/op-ed-blank-checks-c-o-the-stars-market-analysis-given-short-shrift-as-companies-cash-in-on-spac-spree/

Op-ed | Blank checks c/o the stars: Market analysis given short shrift as companies cash in on SPAC spree

An enduring streak of large private investments not seen the space industry’s six decades of existence has taken hold in the past several years.

By Northern Sky Research’s count, the space sector has garnered close to $32 billion in investments since the current wave of financing started in 2014 when Google paid $500 million for Skybox. While $32 billion pales in comparison to the inflation-adjusted $288 billion the United States shelled out during the 1960s to beat the Soviet Union to the moon, the unrestrained spending NASA marshaled to win the Space Race seems to be finding an echo in the current wave of thoughtless investments.

But this time, there’s no moon-or-bust crash program driving the influx of capital. Instead, we are seeing a rush to write blank checks without detailed consideration for what commercial enterprises worldwide value most: the market.

HOT MARKET CALLING

More funds are going into private space entities than ever before. In 2020 alone, investment in space companies hit a record $8.9 billion — $2 billion more than 2019 — despite a pandemic that disrupted the broader economy. This year is off to an even faster start with no fewer than four space companies going public by merging with special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs. Sometimes called “blank check” companies, SPACs raise money by issuing stock before setting out to buy a promising business with the proceeds. The enterprise valuation of recent targets is notably sky high and looks completely disconnected from the real value of the acquisition target’s potential market.

This current deal trend creates the unsettling feeling that proper due diligence on expected performance is very light as the race heats up to grab funding quickly.

Notwithstanding risks of inflation and higher interest rates that could put a serious damper on cash available to invest, the past several years have been rife with questionable investments — from fabulously ‘out there’ ideas to seemingly more earthly ‘reasonable’ ones, many of which led to nowhere, not even orbit.

Space is a hot market for financiers right now. Yes, believers are needed to help great ideas take off, and convincing would-be backers is a major undertaking for any startup.

However, financing decisions should be based on more than the belief that being a “disruptive force” is enough to make a company a market leader. Even when a company’s ideas merit attention, ideas alone don’t make a business case close.

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

If the past is any indication, one long-ago experience may bring some rationality in the expectations of the market and the optics for those watching this space.

In 2008, Iridium was looking for quicker access to public markets to finance its next-generation constellation. It took them 18 months to go public through a SPAC in what was a very novel transaction at the time for the satellite industry. The deal gave them a market value of $591 million on revenues of $321 million, cash on hand of about $400 million, and a projected 20% annual revenue increase (thanks in part to a competitor’s failing satellite network).

The story that followed was not all rosy; they still needed public bank guarantees through export credits to finance their Iridium Next constellation. But many hurdles were addressed that led them to generate more than $4 billion in revenues over the next 10 years. And until 2019, this revenue was largely from Iridium’s initial constellation, a freebie thanks to its earlier bankruptcy. This part is important because the ‘no-CAPEX, only OPEX’ years led to a profitable bottom line in just a few years after Chapter 11, and that attracted the attention of the public markets.

We can say safely it allowed them to embark on the successful $3.6 billion CAPEX spend for the high-risk, second-generation constellation using an unproven SpaceX rocket. The gamble paid off and its stock price since the SPAC quadrupled. Today, Iridium is a dominant player in the mobile satellite services (MSS) market with sales of $580 million, profits at record levels and market capitalization of $5.4 billion. Worth noting: Iridium has benefited greatly from government contracts, which is almost a must for many startups today. The deal today looks like it was built by geniuses who got their money back and more: a ratio of market cap-to-revenues of 1.84 with hundreds of millions of dollars in profits and billions in total revenues.

Is this the near picture-perfect portrait that one should demand of space companies seeking to go public through vehicles such as SPACs? Maybe not, but some degree of realism helps paint the true color of the landscape.

VALUATIONS THROUGH THE ROOF

Across all industries, SPACs raised a record $83 billion in 2020, according to The Washington Post. Let’s remind ourselves that SPACs used to be the last wagon to hitch for companies wanting to go public. It has now become a locomotive in part because many SPACs must close a deal prior to their demise (usually in two years) and if not, lose their investors’ money. Any sector of the economy is a good target and SPACs offer, through warrant redemption, an exclusive path to what some have called a ‘win-win’ situation, no matter the target’s success.

The recent spree of space SPACs are marked by unrealistic projections. Not counting Iridium, the average space SPAC has a $1.8 billion enterprise valuation built on assumptions it can grow $29 million in revenue to $3.85 billion within five years. Virgin Galactic’s market capitalization as of early March was $8.7 billion. Compared to the Iridium situation, the average enterprise value of current space SPACs is three times higher, the market cap is 1.6 times higher, and revenues are 10 times lower.

Enterprise value variables such as profitability, intangibles and future prospects are all important when investing, but it seems intangibles are overshadowing profits and market prospects. And even in the case of market forecasts, sentiment is drowning out everything else that must be considered, such as competitive forces, regulations, supply and demand, and bottom-up forecasts countered with top-down addressable market verification.

For space markets to grow at the bewildering levels promoted in investor presentations, how much revenue can be realistically generated to turn SPACs into genuine billion-dollar companies? Oftentimes, a well-thought-out business is secondary to the promise of huge potential future revenues.

We see too many Econ 101 principles discounted and with only lip service paid to solid market analysis. As if making the technology work guarantees big bucks. But a great technology does not a market make. Just ask Sony about Betamax.

WHEN THE RUBBER MEETS THE ROAD

Some say raising money is a business plan in itself. That may be true for many new ventures, at least until the rubber meets the road. That means taking your offering out of the garage and putting it into high gear to make real money.

Of the emerging space market companies that received investments over the past 20 years, recent NSR data shows that 45% are currently operational, 42% are currently in the R&D stage, 8% are either dormant or shut down, and 5% have been acquired or merged. While the percentage of companies in the R&D stage hasn’t changed significantly since 2018, the past few years saw a decline in companies that are operational, a 31% increase in those that have shut down or gone dormant, and an 84% increase in those that have been acquired or merged with another company.

This trend shows that the realization of the market potential, i.e. the growth story, is both a huge effort and a terrifying road to drive for many startups. Some prefer to sell to another company, which can often mean a pivot from their initial business plan. The fact that the ratio of companies reaching operations is down does not bode well for exaggerated revenue projections we are witnessing.

BAKING A STORY

The Financial Times recently described how unicorns — startups with at least a $1 billion valuation — are producing wildly exaggerated expectations while amassing losses at heights not seen since the dot.com bubble burst in 2000. It may well be that the current investment frenzy will meet a similar end if current SPAC targets rack up real losses while the revenue growth stories they’re telling investors fail to come true.

For all the talk about vast, untapped markets justifying big, upfront losses, there needs to be the assurance that proper, solid revenue projections were made based on actual, real-world events and solid assumptions.

But a dearth of due diligence and a rather shaky understanding of market forces make these projections look too good to be true.

SMALL MARKET AFTER ALL

This hysteria is exemplified by two recent examples: Astra and Rocket Lab. Both companies are in the hotly disputed smallsat launcher market and both plan to go public in the months ahead by merging with a SPAC.

Astra, a new entrant that has raised around $100 million and has yet to reach orbit despite two launch attempts, says the company will be worth $2.1 billion once it is public and foresees $2.6 billion in revenue over the next five years.

Rocket Lab, founded in 2006, has completed 16 successful launches in 18 attempts since 2017 and expects to close 2020s books with $35 million in revenue. Post-SPAC, it’s forecasting $1.44 billion in revenues over five years, of which $936 million will come from launch contracts. It’s computed enterprise value is a whopping $4.1 billion. If we looking at the very crowded market for smallsat launches in the addressable mass range of both Astra and Rocket Lab, NSR sees a $2.3 billion opportunity over five years, or about $400 million a year on average. Including the market for Rocket Lab’s just-announced Neutron medium-lift rocket starting adds another $1 billion, bringing the five-year total to $3.3 billion. Astra and Rocket Lab, between the two of them, expect to capture more than 100% of the forecast.

Let’s pause and consider the dynamics involved here. The smallsat launch market is currently getting blindsided as the likes of SpaceX and Arianespace offer smallsat operators cutthroat prices for rideshares on larger rockets. Doing the math, there’s no credible growth story for Astra to be valued at $2.1 billion and Rocket Lab at $4.1 billion without ignoring the pressure from major competitors cannibalizing a large portion of Astra’s and Rocket Lab’s total “available” revenues.

It also looks like elements such as reliability, performance, and getting satellites regularly to orbit (at the expense of other competitors) are ignored in the assessment. Perhaps the thinking is that price to orbit will grow significantly? Unlikely. With dozens of launchers planning to offer competition, price will eventually decline, and that will have the single largest impact on the bottom line of most launch providers. So capturing the total market and more is dreaming.

Most emerging space markets today are small, and yes, there is the potential that they will see very high growth rates in the coming years. But many, many, many ducks need to line up perfectly for that to happen. And also, well, because space is hard.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The downside of such ‘frothy’ valuation is that the belief factor in the industry could take a hard hit when one such SPAC or ill-advised investment goes wrong. And this is likely to happen soon after the effects of ‘real world’ market dynamics come into play, or when the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates and thus steers investors away from speculative and risky endeavors.

Space is risky. Making it in the space business is even riskier. Once a business conquers space and is successful, it realizes the basic value for which it is built. And the realization of that value requires the endurance of countless challenges, which make unbelievable revenues and market projection look damning.

The space industry has tons of really, really good engineers and scientists but, regrettably, not enough good market, business, sales and commercial staff to make reasonable and sound business cases.

Thus, when investing in space, the weight given to market value needs to settle down and reflect a minimum level of appreciation that it is not easy to make money in the space industry. Making money in the space business is almost like counting to $1 million, one penny at a time, and less like writing a blank check.

Claude Rousseau is research director at Northern Sky Research, a satellite and space market research and consulting firm.

This article originally appeared in the March 15, 2021 issue of SpaceNews magazine.

#Space

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