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xxxdragonfucker69xxx · 5 months

Text

The Abyssals crowdfunding campaign closes in about 24 hours.

I did not get to hourinblack all their charms. As penance, I am going to skim just the end of each charmtree, and tell you about the biggest, coolest power of each tree. I am also going to do this for necromancy because i am a necromantic slut.

ARCHERY:

World-Wounding Darkness: Shoot a hole in the world, leaving a black hole that sucks people in. This isn't actually near the end of the tree but it caught my eye and I was like holy fuck.

Heart-Numbing Spike: When you shoot someone, wound their ability to care about things.

Last Days Portent: Shoot out the fucking sun. Kills the lights over the battlefield. If you're being goth about it, kill the lights for miles around.

ATHLETICS

Mountains Become Dust: Physical scale is no longer a limit on feats of scale or destruction.

Light-Killing Stride: Move faster than someone. Didn't ask how fast they moved, you move faster than them.

Temple-Shattering Ruination Curse: Destroy a building to curse the land, making it shadowy and blighted and supernaturally scary. if you were being intense about it, it becomes an abyssal demesne, a permanent upwelling of goth energy

AWARENESS

All-Seeing Overlord's Lair: Extend your senses throughout your stronghold, you can't be surprised inside and your ghostly sentinels (you know, the wraiths you cast to patrol for you) can roam throughout

Morbid Inspiration Witness: Find inspiration in " the morbid, the eerie, or the darkly beautiful: an albatross dropping dead in flight, three black cats crossing the same street in sequence, lightning striking a distant temple." That inspiration grants you bonuses on various projects, and also makes you care deeply about it. This is enhanced by further charms like Fervent Caprice Fever and Unrelenting Obsession Genius

Piercing Gaze of the Unmaker: Pick a place within, like 20 miles. You see it like it's your lair and you're there. Or maybe you want to cast your gaze on your rival instead? they are going to feel a crawling sensation up their spine from your gaze through <3

BRAWL

Illustrative Overkill Technique: When you kill or incapacitate a guy, it's so fucked up you can use it to threaten anyone else. Or like blow up a building or whatever

Explosive Gore Eulogy (!!): When you do that ^ you can also use their corpse as a weapon. Jesus christ.

Life-Annihilating Castigation: Pyreflame your attack and multiply (!!) damage by your opponent's wound penalty. If you get their ass they explode with pyreflame from within, and if it kills them their ghost burns up on the spot

Void Avatar Embodiment: Now with 0% prana! Envelop yourself in the void, dealing aggravated damage on touch and withering ranged attacks away. Also you're as close to death as you want to be <3

BUREAUCRACY

Hateful Scorn Panopticon: when you use Accursed Overlord Authority to inspire hatred in your followers, you can sense when any of them encounter your enemy, and where.

Rotting Palace Proclamation: Reveal that you embedded a traitor in a rival organization. Or was it someone we knew all along?

Iron Tyrant Reign: When you do that Accursed Overlord thing, if it's a Defining Principle you can carve it into the world as an Old Law: everyone who hears or reads it must follow, words bleed through coverings or hover like fire in the air, the mindless dead automatically obey

Suffer No Betrayal: When you do the Panopticon, you can also count people who've broken your laws as enemies. You can immediately gain Defining Hatred... and possibly carve that as an old law with Iron Tyrant Reign? That isn't in the charm im just reading between the lines

CRAFT

Malicious Mechanism Mastery: Jesus this one is a cartoon supervillain bit. Reveal that an enemy has stumbled into your trap! If it's a corpse-based trap, it's worse!

Fivefold Malice Curse: Lay a curse on something you make, for instance if its bearer breaks an oath or acts against one of your principles. and if they trigger the curse they get blasted by your Bleak Expiations, aka Abyssal Limit Break aka You Cannot Escape The Goth

Soul-Tarnishing Treasure: Instead of an overt curse you can cause it to inspire vice, a sword demanding bloodshed or a chalice inspiring drink. You can't be totally free of this unless you give the object up

Drawn to Death's Beauty: When you use Magnificent Cenotaph Allure to imbue something with emotion, you can also fill it with the mesmerizing lure of death, so that people wander towards it like a will o wisp and cant look away

Betrayal-Spurring Gifts: Annatar their shit socially if you've given them something you've made. &btw cursing that shit is free

DODGE

Hanging Shrike Focus: Dodge up into the air and float back down, or fall on your enemies maybe

Queen of Killers Pirouette (!!): dodge so good you turn it back on them, like fucking zelda's neutral-B in smash

Tenebrous Cloud Dissolution: DRACULA FOG its fucking dracula fog

Breath-Seizing Mist: Hey how would you like it if dracula fog was inside your lungs

Icy Sepulcher Entombment: When you cause someone to despair at hitting you the ice literally grows around your heart and then freezes them over. The freezing stuff is actually pretty early in the tree but this is setup for

In Awful Glory Crowned: When you bring them to despair with Frozen Fears Blossom you can also drain their Willpower, and if you drain it all they become obedient to you. Unless they're unimportant in which case they might just fall over dead, turn into a ghost, and then be obedient to you

INTEGRITY

Freedom In Chains: If forced to act against death's chivalry or your principles, brood about it, then break free

Clarity in Hatred: Shaping defense if you're mad enough

Immortal Malevolence: If you've enshrined an intimacy with Eternal Enmity Approach, you can care so much that you simply do not die. Wake up the next sunset completely healed, but you can't use that intimacy again

INVESTIGATION

Heart-Haunting Condemnation: Scrooge a bitch. Nightmares and omens reinforce your accusations.

Bleak Justice Malediction: If your victim of the above draws on Ties to resist giving in to your accusations, the haunting spreads to those people and things too. If they die they haunt your victim. You can fully Book Of Job somebody here.

Omniscient Spymaster's Web. Know something. Your people told you. You think anyone can keep a secret from you?

#hour in black

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manaketemillennium · 2 years

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✨The Dragon Gate has opened ✨

Pre-orders for Manakete Millennium: A Zine Celebrating Fire Emblem Dragons are officially open until July 31st!

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🔷Tiki's Tear - Digital Bundle 🐉18 USD

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This bundle contains: ♦ 1x PDF of Manakete Millennium (A5, ~140 pages) ♦ 1x Animated Phone Wallpaper ♦ 1x 2560x1600 Wallpaper ♦ 1x 2000x1000 Banner ♦ 2x Icons ♦ 12x Emotes ♦ Printable Papercraft Doll of the one and only Fae

🔷Dragon's Gate - Book Bundle 🐉20 USD

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For $5, add bonuses:

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🔷Fae's Surprise Pouch - Half Bundle 🐉35 USD

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This bundle contains: ♦ 1x Copy of Manakete Millennium (A5, ~140 pages) ♦ 1x A5 Art Print (Fae's choice!*) ♦ 2x Die-Cut Stickers (Fae's choice!*) ♦ 1x Grima Worm Charm (approx. 3") ♦ 1x 15mm Holographic Foil Clear Tape ♦ ALL Digital Items (PDF, Wallpapers, Emotes, Icons, Papercraft) ♦ ALL Unlocked Stretch Goals!

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crochetcouch · 1 year

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Ok it’s the last day! This isn’t one of those “oh hey surprise we’re giving you a few more days to purchase” etc etc - I find those so annoying LOL

This is really the last day to purchase this pattern bundle at this incredible price and then it will be gone. You can still purchase the pattern individually but at full price :(

This bundle includes our cow print afghan and our cow afghan as well as a promo code given out tomorrow for 4 more patterns of your choice from any on our website!

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looye29 · 1 year

Text

It’s not often that we come across a “law of attraction” type of product that helps you with love. Most of these products are concerned with wealth creation and living an abundant life. But… we also live in a world where divorce rates are at an all-time high. Relationships break up over the most trivial matters. The bookstores are filled with books such as “He’s Just Not That Into You” and “Men are From Mars. Women are from Outer Space”, etc. All these books are about trying to find the right partner or manage a crumbling relationship. Some of the authors who wrote these books are divorced too! So, our curiosity was piqued when we came across Manifestation Magic and one of our reviewers said that it helped her with her love life. Nothing whatsoever on the sales page mentioned anything about love. It seemed to be all about wealth. So why did it work? We decided to take a closer look at the program… What You’ll Find Inside: Before looking at the benefits of Manifestation Magic, let’s look at what you get – and you do get a lot. Quick Start Manifestation Guide (PDF, Kindle, iBook versions) Twilight Transformation Energy Orbiting Track 7 “Energy Orbiting” Tracks to Enhance Chakra Wealth Energy. The “Push Play” Audio App 60-Day, Money-Back Guarantee Bonus #1 - Chakra Power System Bonus #2 - 360 Transformation System 2 Surprise Bonuses – The Abundance Miracle System & 7 Sacred Signs This package sure doesn’t hold back. We were quite surprised to receive so much content for a reasonably low price. Manifestation Magic is a complete system that’s more comprehensive than most books in this genre… BUT… content alone isn’t enough. There is still one VERY IMPORTANT question that must be answered… Will Manifestation Magic Help You? Actions that matter: The biggest problem we had with books like The Secret was that all you had to do was think positively to see results. This Pollyanna approach to manifesting wealth or anything in life sounds good, but rarely works. Manifestation magic requires you to listen to the audios. This is work. It’s not hard work – but it’s necessary work. Builds a strong foundation: The reason why Manifestation Magic works and has positive testimonials is because of the science behind it. You're gently taken from a place of lack to a place of abundance. This is crucial. The reason it helps you with your health is because it creates thought patterns within your mind where you are more focused and stick to your goals. The expertly designed sonic landscape in the audios will induce a state of calm attention where you don’t lose focus and renege on the promises you made to yourself. Manifestation Magic is not only about wealth. It fixes the underlying and fundamental issues in your thinking that is sabotaging every aspect of your life in one way or another. It helps you to get healthy and stay healthy . It's very difficult to do this solely with books, because we are creatures of habit. So, by listening to the audios, we can delve deeply into the mind and fix the inconsistencies that are sabotaging our efforts. Manifestation Magic does this better than any book we've seen. Consistency: By asking you to listen to the tracks daily, Manifestation Magic builds patterns of thought and habits without you even realizing it. You’re becoming more positive and your thinking is elevated to the next level. Clearing out the trash: No amount of positive thinking can work if you’re still stuck in your old patterns of thinking. It’s like applying nail polish on a rash to hide it. You must treat the problem. Manifestation magic has “Energy Orbiting” audio sessions to clear abundance blocks in your mind. By clearing the old obstacles, your path will now be clear to manifest miracles without your attempts being impeded. All-Encompassing System: On the surface, Manifestation magic looked like just another run-of-the-mill self-help product. We were so wrong.

There are audios, a QuickStart guide and about 14 bonus audios that will help you with your wealth, love life, spirituality, etc. It’s so much more than a wealth attraction product and it lived up to its promises. Easy to use: There’s no denying the fact that it’s easier to listen to audios rather than force yourself to think and visualize positive images when your life around you is in shambles. Manifestation Magic is a very practical and down-to-earth program that understands that you need to make changes WITHIN before you can make changes in your life. The canvas must be clean before you can create a masterpiece. We loved the audio tracks with the gentle pulsating sounds! Genuine Testimonials: The official sales page has reviews from customers who have tried the product and seen changes in their life. That’s social proof that the audio tracks deliver on the promise. Instant access: This is a digital product. You’ll get instant access to it and can start changing your immediately. No shipping costs or delays. 60-Day Money Back Guarantee: This point alone shows the abundance mindset that Alexander has. He has so much faith in his product that he has given you enough time to test out the product and make changes in your life. If it doesn’t work, you can always get your money back. We’re guessing that you won’t because Manifestation Magic will add magic in your life. Still, it’s a risk-free purchase. What are Subliminal Messages and NLP? Subliminal messages have been around for decades. Terms such as ‘self-hypnosis’, ‘binaural beats’ etc. have been used to describe audio tracks that gently work on reprogramming your subconscious mind while you sleep. These tracks are easy to use because they require very little effort on your part. All you do listen to them when you’re in a sleepy and more suggestive state. NLP refers to neurolinguistic programming and it was invented by Richard Bandler and John Grinder. NLP is used to change your behavioral patterns by altering your neurological processes. It’s akin to creating new outcomes by changing your habits. What makes Manifestation Magic so powerful is that the audio tracks that come with this program infuse both subliminal messages and NLP. That makes these tracks even more potent and effective. Any downsides to this product? There are a few downsides. No product is perfect… and thankfully, the only 2 cons we could fine were just minor issues. Can only be purchased online - You’ll not be able to purchase this product from a bookstore. It’s a digital product and you need a computer and an internet connection to access and download it. The product vendors intentionally made it this way so that they could keep the production costs low and make it affordable to the masses - and help as many people as possible. Audio tracks may not be suitable for everyone - Some people may find it difficult to listen to the tracks because the frequency may be jarring to them. This is a very small minority – but it happens. The good news is that you just need to contact the support team of Manifestation Magic and they’ll mix a new audio track for you with a different frequency that you can easily listen to – and they will do it for FREE! Excellent customer support here. Should You Buy It? Definitely! This product delivers what it says on the tin. You’re backed by a guarantee and you’ve nothing to lose and everything to gain. It bridges the gap between visualization and results. The audios will accelerate your results if you’re already practicing daily visualization. It’s the missing piece of the puzzle. There must be action, if you wish to see results. Listening to the audios is the action that you must take to change your life fast and manifest the health you wish to see. Wealth, love, good health and whatever you want is within reach. It will take some effort. You’ll need to consistently listen to the videos and follow Alexander’s advice to the letter – but now you finally have a blueprint to success.

You’re not taking shots in the dark. You have a tool to fix what’s not working within you… and once you change your ‘inside’, your outside will change miraculously… and you’ll NEVER look back. Manifestation Magic gets two thumbs up from us.

0 notes

lovingangelobservation · 3 years

Text

2021 Updated Manifestation Magic

It’s not often that we come across a “law of attraction” type of product that helps you with love. Most of these products are concerned with wealth creation and living an abundant life.

But… we also live in a world where divorce rates are at an all-time high.

Relationships break up over the most trivial matters. The bookstores are filled with books such as “He’s Just Not That Into You” and “Men are From Mars. Women are from Outer Space”, etc.

All these books are about trying to find the right partner or manage a crumbling relationship. Some of the authors who wrote these books are divorced too!

So, our curiosity was piqued when we came across Manifestation Magic and one of our reviewers said that it helped her with her love life. Nothing whatsoever on the sales page mentioned anything about love.

It seemed to be all about wealth. So why did it work?

We decided to take a closer look at the program…

What You’ll Find Inside:

Before looking at the benefits of Manifestation Magic, let’s look at what you get – and you do get a lot.

Quick Start Manifestation Guide (PDF, Kindle, iBook versions)

Twilight Transformation Energy Orbiting Track

7 “Energy Orbiting” Tracks to Enhance Chakra Wealth Energy.

The “Push Play” Audio App

60-Day, Money-Back Guarantee

Bonus #1 - Chakra Power System

Bonus #2 - 360 Transformation System

2 Surprise Bonuses – The Abundance Miracle System & 7 Sacred Signs

This package sure doesn’t hold back. We were quite surprised to receive so much content for a reasonably low price.

Manifestation Magic is a complete system that’s more comprehensive than most books in this genre… BUT… content alone isn’t enough.

There is still one VERY IMPORTANT question that must be answered…

Will Manifestation Magic Help You?

Actions that matter: The biggest problem we had with books like The Secret was that all you had to do was think positively to see results. This Pollyanna approach to manifesting wealth or anything in life sounds good, but rarely works. Manifestation magic requires you to listen to the audios. This is work. It’s not hard work – but it’s necessary work.

Builds a strong foundation: The reason why Manifestation Magic works and has positive testimonials is because of the science behind it. You're gently taken from a place of lack to a place of abundance. This is crucial. The reason it helps you with your health is because it creates thought patterns within your mind where you are more focused and stick to your goals. The expertly designed sonic landscape in the audios will induce a state of calm attention where you don’t lose focus and renege on the promises you made to yourself. Manifestation Magic is not only about wealth. It fixes the underlying and fundamental issues in your thinking that is sabotaging every aspect of your life in one way or another. It helps you to get healthy and stay healthy . It's very difficult to do this solely with books, because we are creatures of habit. So, by listening to the audios, we can delve deeply into the mind and fix the inconsistencies that are sabotaging our efforts. Manifestation Magic does this better than any book we've seen.

Consistency:By asking you to listen to the tracks daily, Manifestation Magic builds patterns of thought and habits without you even realizing it. You’re becoming more positive and your thinking is elevated to the next level.

Clearing out the trash: No amount of positive thinking can work if you’re still stuck in your old patterns of thinking. It’s like applying nail polish on a rash to hide it. You must treat the problem. Manifestation magic has “Energy Orbiting” audio sessions to clear abundance blocks in your mind. By clearing the old obstacles, your path will now be clear to manifest miracles without your attempts being impeded.

All-Encompassing System: On the surface, Manifestation magic looked like just another run-of-the-mill self-help product. We were so wrong. There are audios, a QuickStart guide and about 14 bonus audios that will help you with your wealth, love life, spirituality, etc. It’s so much more than a wealth attraction product and it lived up to its promises.

Easy to use: There’s no denying the fact that it’s easier to listen to audios rather than force yourself to think and visualize positive images when your life around you is in shambles. Manifestation Magic is a very practical and down-to-earth program that understands that you need to make changes WITHIN before you can make changes in your life. The canvas must be clean before you can create a masterpiece. We loved the audio tracks with the gentle pulsating sounds!

Genuine Testimonials: The official sales page has reviews from customers who have tried the product and seen changes in their life. That’s social proof that the audio tracks deliver on the promise.

Instant access: This is a digital product. You’ll get instant access to it and can start changing your immediately. No shipping costs or delays.

60-Day Money Back Guarantee: This point alone shows the abundance mindset that Alexander has. He has so much faith in his product that he has given you enough time to test out the product and make changes in your life.

If it doesn’t work, you can always get your money back. We’re guessing that you won’t because Manifestation Magic will add magic in your life. Still, it’s a risk-free purchase.

What are Subliminal Messages and NLP?

Subliminal messages have been around for decades. Terms such as ‘self-hypnosis’, ‘binaural beats’ etc. have been used to describe audio tracks that gently work on reprogramming your subconscious mind while you sleep. These tracks are easy to use because they require very little effort on your part. All you do listen to them when you’re in a sleepy and more suggestive state.

NLP refers to neurolinguistic programming and it was invented by Richard Bandler and John Grinder. NLP is used to change your behavioral patterns by altering your neurological processes. It’s akin to creating new outcomes by changing your habits.

What makes Manifestation Magic so powerful is that the audio tracks that come with this program infuse both subliminal messages and NLP. That makes these tracks even more potent and effective.

Any downsides to this product?

There are a few downsides. No product is perfect… and thankfully, the only 2 cons we could fine were just minor issues.

1) Can only be purchased online You’ll not be able to purchase this product from a bookstore. It’s a digital product and you need a computer and an internet connection to access and download it.

The product vendors intentionally made it this way so that they could keep the production costs low and make it affordable to the masses - and help as many people as possible.

2) Audio tracks may not be suitable for everyone Some people may find it difficult to listen to the tracks because the frequency may be jarring to them. This is a very small minority – but it happens.

The good news is that you just need to contact the support team of Manifestation Magic and they’ll mix a new audio track for you with a different frequency that you can easily listen to – and they will do it for FREE! Excellent customer support here.

Should You Buy It?

Definitely! This product delivers what it says on the tin. You’re backed by a guarantee and you’ve nothing to lose and everything to gain.

It bridges the gap between visualization and results. The audios will accelerate your results if you’re already practicing daily visualization. It’s the missing piece of the puzzle.

There must be action, if you wish to see results. Listening to the audios is the action that you must take to change your life fast and manifest the health you wish to see.

Wealth, love, good health and whatever you want is within reach. It will take some effort. You’ll need to consistently listen to the videos and follow Alexander’s advice to the letter – but now you finally have a blueprint to success.

Manifestation Magic gets two thumbs up from us.

2 notes · View notes

groovysublimecreator · 3 years

Text

Manifestation At First Sight - Brand New Angle In Spirituality Niche

HEALTH ANGLE

Manifestation Magic Review

It’s not often that we come across a “law of attraction” type of product that helps you with your health. Most of these products are concerned with wealth creation and living an abundant life.

But… we also live in a world where people are more sick and unhealthy than ever before. Obesity has reached epidemic proportions. Disease statistics are at an all time high.

So, our curiosity was piqued when we came across Manifestation Magic and one of our reviewers said that it helped him with his health. Nothing whatsoever on the website mentioned anything about health.

It seemed to be all about wealth. So why did it work?

We decided to take a closer look at the program…

What You’ll Find Inside:

Before looking at the benefits of Manifestation Magic, let’s look at what you get – and you do get a lot.

· Quick Start Manifestation Guide (PDF, Kindle, iBook versions)

· Twilight Transformation Energy Orbiting Track

· 7 “Energy Orbiting” Tracks to Enhance Chakra Wealth Energy.

· The “Push Play” Audio App

· 60-Day, Money-Back Guarantee

· Bonus #1 - Chakra Power System

· Bonus #2 - 360 Transformation System

· 2 Surprise Bonuses – The Abundance Miracle System & 7 Sacred Signs

This package sure doesn’t hold back. We were quite surprised to receive so much content for a reasonably low price.

Manifestation Magic is a complete system that’s more comprehensive than most books in this genre… BUT… content alone isn’t enough.

There is still one VERY IMPORTANT question that must be answered…

Will Manifestation Magic Help You?

The reason it helps you with your health is because it creates thought patterns within your mind where you are more focused and stick to your goals.

The expertly designed sonic landscape in the audios will induce a state of calm attention where you don’t lose focus and renege on the promises you made to yourself.

Manifestation Magic is not only about wealth. It fixes the underlying and fundamental issues in your thinking that is sabotaging every aspect of your life in one way or another. It helps you to get healthy and stay healthy .

It's very difficult to do this solely with books, because we are creatures of habit. So, by listening to the audios, we can delve deeply into the mind and fix the inconsistencies that are sabotaging our efforts. Manifestation Magic does this better than any book we've seen.

Clearing out the trash: No amount of positive thinking can work if you’re still stuck in your old patterns of thinking. It’s like applying nail polish on a rash to hide it.

You must treat the problem. Manifestation magic has “Energy Orbiting” audio sessions to clear abundance blocks in your mind. By clearing the old obstacles, your path will now be clear to manifest miracles without your attempts being impeded.

All-Encompassing System: On the surface, Manifestation magic looked like just another run-of-the-mill self-help product. We were so wrong.

Easy to use: There’s no denying the fact that it’s easier to listen to audios rather than force yourself to think and visualize positive images when your life around you is in shambles.

Manifestation Magic is a very practical and down-to-earth program that understands that you need to make changes WITHIN before you can make changes in your life. The canvas must be clean before you can create a masterpiece. We loved the audio tracks with the gentle pulsating sounds!

Genuine Testimonials: The official sales page has reviews from customers who have tried the product and seen changes in their life. That’s social proof that the audio tracks deliver on the promise.

Instant access: This is a digital product. You’ll get instant access to it and can start changing your immediately. No shipping costs or delays.

If it doesn’t work, you can always get your money back. We’re guessing that you won’t because Manifestation Magic will add magic in your life. Still, it’s a risk-free purchase.

What are Subliminal Messages and NLP?

What makes Manifestation Magic so powerful is that the audio tracks that come with this program infuse both subliminal messages and NLP. That makes these tracks even more potent and effective.

Any downsides to this product?

There are a few downsides. No product is perfect… and thankfully, the only 2 cons we could fine were just minor issues.

1) Can only be purchased online You’ll not be able to purchase this product from a bookstore. It’s a digital product and you need a computer and an internet connection to access and download it.

The product vendors intentionally made it this way so that they could keep the production costs low and make it affordable to the masses - and help as many people as possible.

Should You Buy It?

Definitely! This product delivers what it says on the tin. You’re backed by a guarantee and you’ve nothing to lose and everything to gain.

It bridges the gap between visualization and results. The audios will accelerate your results if you’re already practicing daily visualization. It’s the missing piece of the puzzle.

There must be action, if you wish to see results. Listening to the audios is the action that you must take to change your life fast and manifest the health you wish to see.

It’s all about breaking old habits and forming a new mindset. The same rules that apply to improving wealth applies to everything else in your life. It all comes down to mindset – and the Manifestation Magic audio tracks will change your thought patterns.

You can achieve the body of your dreams. You can lose weight, get fit and look and feel like a million dollars. The struggles that you were going through before will disappear once you get out of your own way.

It may seem like hype, and we were cynical too… but Manifestation Magic does give you the edge you need to make your dreams come true. You’ll finally stop sabotaging your own progress and good health will be the norm.

Give it a try and you’ll never look back.

https://bit.ly/3enixDX

1 note · View note

israelrub4 · 3 years

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Challenging Timber Tonic person Recommendations

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fullbloomzine · 5 years

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hopefulfestivaltastemaker · 4 years

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July 5, 2020

My weekly review of some things I have been up to. Topics include the goals for think tank work, a data model for policy, decoupling, determinants of birth rates, and the New African Renaissance.

Data, Analysis, Solutions

This has been a week of some serious rehashing of the Urban Cruise Ship project and what we are trying to do.

The three buzzwords we are using are Data, Analysis, and Solutions (though the logo doesn’t have ‘Data’ in it). We are strong on Data, OK but could be better on Analysis, and lacking in Solutions. Our funder wants to rectify this imbalance.

When one reviews various research, think tanks, and advocacy organizations, one finds a tendency to specialize in different portions of the policy pipeline. Our World in Data, for instance, is one of the best presenters of data out there, as the name would imply. They are weak on analysis, and one has to do additional work to turn the data into a coherent picture of the world, at least a picture more definite than the “things are getting better” message that OWID director Max Roser promotes. They don’t offer solutions.

At the other end of the spectrum, there is a range of advocacy organizations whose job is to develop solutions. Citizens Climate Lobby is the one in the environmental space that I consider to be the gold standard. They advocate a carbon fee and dividend. CCL commissions research and analysis from top tier outfits, though as a primary source of dispassionate data and analysis they are not the place I would go.

Union of Concerned Scientists, the organization from which I inadvertently copied the acronym, is the best example I know of that straddles the Data -> Analysis -> Solutions pipeline. Their scope is broad. I don’t always agree with their ideological orientation, and I find that their material has become too partisan for my tastes, but the quality of their work is consistently good.

I tend to gravitate to wide scope projects, so in some sense the Urban Cruise Ship scope of work is a good fit. But I fear that I am setting up for failure for trying to do so much that I cannot do any of it well.

A Data Model for Research and Policy

This is another idea I have been thinking about, and it is still so amorphous that I don’t even have a good title for this section.

As described above, I envision a fairly well-defined pipeline that starts with raw data (from environmental sensors, laboratory results, survey results, statistics, etc.), proceeds through multiple layers of analysis, and leads to an output of a well-defined policy that can be implemented by a well-defined entity. By policy I am referring not just to government policy but also business practices, investment strategy, or pretty much any kind of policy.

It is very difficult for any one entity to do this process in its entirely (see above), especially since good policy should draw upon a wide range of disciplines. Therefore, a division of labor develops in practice. Most policymaking isn’t very good though, relying more heavily on ideology and folk wisdom than on rigorous analysis.

We have the data tools necessary to break the pipeline into interoperable and computable chunks. The open data movement in governance is a good step, though they could greatly improve their offerings. We need open science too, which means open access publishing, but more importantly means publishing in a form that is accessible both to machines and a more general audience. We should think of R or Jupyter Notebooks, and semantic presentation of knowledge such as RDF, rather than PDF files, as the basic unit of academic publishing.

Publication at the think tank level would work in the same way. Since think tanks don’t typically do primary research, they would take as input academic publication and produce as output general policy principles. Advocacy organizations could take as input the work or academics or think tanks and output specific policy proposals.

In theory, a policy proposal could be compiled into its rationale in terms of raw data and mathematical models. On the latter, the models could even be run through a proof checker such as Lean. This would allow the development of agents that could analyze policy proposals for red flags, such as data of disputed veracity or methodological problems.

An end-to-end computable model for research and policy, aside from facilitating better decision-making in general, may emerge as an important infrastructural component of the technology stack that will ultimately become artificial general intelligence. As I’ve noted earlier, I think that popular understanding of AGI neglects the infrastructural aspect of the problem.

If this was an idea that I am serious about--which, to be clear, it is not at present--I would go about it as follows. First, I would draft one or more white papers explaining the technical workings and sample use cases of the system in detail, together with a business case. Second, I would implement proofs of concept of key subsystems using what I have built with Urban Cruise Ship. Third, I would seek funding and build out a team and create a minimum viable product. Then I would figure out how to make the system snowball via network effects. At least the first two steps I know I could do with sufficient time and effort.

Decoupling

In ecological science, decoupling refers to a system that allows population or economic growth to occur without an increase in overall environmental impacts. I spent the week developing some time series of world environmental impacts to see which ones are growing or shrinking in absolute terms, on a per capita basis, and on a per-GDP basis. Of course I’m not the first person to attempt to do this, but I haven’t seen anything comprehensive laid out and I think there should be.

Across a range of impacts, the only recent examples I see of growth relative to GDP are ores (by metal content) and minerals (e.g. sand, stone), both from 2002-2015. I would expect them to decouple after we get past the peak of world urbanization. There are absolute declines in meadows and pastures, 1990-2017 (though I wouldn’t consider this definitive), land for forestry, 1990-2017, several forms of air pollution in the OECD, ozone depletion, mercury emissions, extreme poverty, and lack of access to safe drinking water. On a per capita basis, I’ll just say the picture is a mixed bag.

This will be a good graphic and I am looking forward to having it done. The nice thing about a big picture graphic like this is that there are many conclusions the viewer can draw, and I need not be heavy-handed about it.

Factors that Govern Birth Rates

As planned, I took some time this week on the fertility work, this time trying to get a handle on some more practical questions.

There are a few things that are widely known in the field. Urbanization and educational attainment generally lower fertility. Religious people tend to have more kids. Family planning policies lower birth rates, though the effect is not very significant in wealthy countries. Legalized abortion lowers birth rates.

The two most popular pro-natalist policies are baby bonuses and subsidized childcare. The one estimate on the efficacy of baby bonuses I know about is Lyman Stone’s estimate that it costs anywhere from $30,00 to 300,000 to induce one additional birth, based on an Australian project. Several studies, such as this one, suggest that subsidized child care is more efficiency than a baby bonus, in terms of induced additional births per public dollar spent. That’s not what I would have expected but it makes sense.

Beyond the well-known observation that fertility is lower in urban areas relative to rural, there are some interesting distinctions within cities. Shoag and Russell find that stringent zoning depresses fertility. Kulu and Washbrook find that fertility is higher in smaller cities compared to bigger cities. Kulu, Boyle, and Andersson find that fertility is higher in suburbs relative to city cores. None of these are too terribly surprising, though since the effect of zoning is typically to suppress city size and density, the results of Shoag and Russell would seem to be in tension with the others. There is a story that can be told that would harmonize them, which is that cost of living is more relevant than urban form, and that cost of living tends to be higher in city cores, larger cities, and cities with stringent zoning.

Last week I noted three overarching hypothesis on the drivers of fertility decline: the quality/quantity tradeoff, cultural evolution hypotheses, and the tendency for modernity to create competing desires to family formation. I can’t say that anything I looked at this week helps me distinguish between these hypotheses.

New African Renaissance

This paper came out a couple weeks ago, outlining a vision for a Pan-African future. It is an interesting read, though a bit heavy on the speculative idealism, but I like to indulge in this kind of stuff now and then. There are some heavy hitters behind the initiative.

Based on demographic trends, Africa is the region of the world that looks to be in the best position to prosper in the second half of the 21st century.

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manaketemillennium · 2 years

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niladri123 · 3 years

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looye29 · 1 year

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It is the same usual scene in a bar, all alone, trying to pick a conversation with a girl but not going beyond a few sentences, feeling sick and tired – sounds all too familiar? Are you struggling to wriggle out of this monotony and get into an exciting lifestyle? Are you worried that you would remain a loner all through your life? Want to be irresistible to women? I just might have the right solution for you! You very badly want to get out and look for some interesting and exciting relationships. Like you, many men are looking for suggestions, guidelines, and easy to understand steps to go forward in life and break the monotony. After all, women make life so much more fun! Not all the material that you get online turns out to be appropriate or even successful. The Tao of Badass by Joshua Pellicer comes to you like a bright star to guide you out of this darkness. What is The Tao of Badass Joseph Pellicer created this program exclusively for men like you who struggle to get into relationships with women and fail time and again. The course has specific details about important skills, communication tips, body language, and more. The word Tao means 'the path', and no doubt, the book helps you do everything you need all these days, to be respected by peers, not to worry what others think of you, and to get into strong relationships with women, to be the man that women want to have always. The techniques narrated in the book will help you to overcome the fear to approach a woman and break the monotony of unsuccessful dates. A lot of research has gone into the program, psychology, neuro-linguistical programming, etc. Many a time women just take one look at you and decide whether to get into a relationship with you or not. So, this first impression factor is actually a big deal. The author seems to have studied women's psychology well and talks in-depth about how to get her hooked the moment you walk into the room. The book includes 150 pages eBook in PDF and audio versions. You can download it on any device and access it from anywhere. There are also many videos training you about your body language, conversation skills, non-verbal communication, and lots more. With the videos, you will understand very quickly what to do and what not to do when in the company of women. How it works The program comes with a 5-week body language mastery course that contains seminars on body language. This will train you to read a person the moment when you see them. You may be surprised to note that small details such as your walk, method of the handshake, and hand position will be largely noticed by women. The audio album that talks about subliminal inner confidence show how confidence projected by men is the main attraction for women. You will learn to improve your self-confidence and make progress in your life by improving your relationships and other aspects of life. The Hacking Attraction video course is offered to you to help you win over women. You will be able to understand female psychology and learn tricks on how to build up attraction. The aim is to get women to drool over you and want you as they have never wanted anyone before! Once you master the techniques, you are sure to have many women begging for attention. The program also offers many bonuses along with the main course. Body language and aspects of relationships and dating come to you in easy-to-understand audio files. The book teaches you the necessary skills to be attractive to women in 3 key steps: 1. Become an Attractive Man: All the things that women get attracted to in a man are narrated here. Follow the guide and see the difference in how women approach you. The science of gender roles and how essential it is for you to prove yourself a man will fulfill your desire to attract more women. You will no longer be placed in the nice guy category. Now isn’t that amazing?! You will know how you first got into this zone and the steps to take to get out of it immediately.

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rawchefyin · 3 years

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👐OPEN FOR MEMBERSHIP NOW!! Just to let you know that I offer a monthly subscription service for a low USD30 a month, where you get access to an online course before the rest of the public sees it. For March 2021, it’s Creative Tempeh Recipes course at https://www.patreon.com/rawchefyin Once you join, you'll get the following from 2-31 March 2021. 10 Tempeh Recipes You Need To Try! (No. 7 will surprise you… and it’s not tempeh bacon) ✅ Sambal "Goreng" Tempeh (oil-free!) ✅ Tempeh Rendang ✅ Kung Pao Tempeh ✅ Tempeh Ka Prao (Thai Basil Stir-fry) ✅ Tempeh Sausage ✅ Tempeh Meatballs ✅ Tempeh Hummus ✅ Tempeh Crackers ✅ Tropical Tempeh Smoothie ✅ Tempeh Ice Cream Bars You get How-To Videos as well as a comprehensive PDF course booklet with step-by-step written instructions for all recipes. And there will be some BONUSES along the way too! Note: this is a monthly subscription service where you pay only USD30 per month. As a member, you gain access to one online cooking course per month as well as direct access to me in the monthly Live Q&A session. The course is worth at least USD70 or more! This is a course of my choice, you don’t get to choose which course to take. Of course, I’m always open to suggestions on what to offer for future courses. Please only sign up if you can commit to this monthly 💪 If you're up for it, go here: https://www.patreon.com/rawchefyin Or click Link IN Bio and search for RAWK WITH YIN. #tempeh #tempe #tempehrecipes #temperecipes (at Online) https://www.instagram.com/p/CMPRreMgbYI/?igshid=1vhmrrcsep0df

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allenmendezsr · 3 years

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The brakes all but stopped working when they became wet, the power would turn on and off randomly because of poor connectors and the batteries quickly drained slowing the bike barely getting me home.

I even had to push the bike home several times because something failed.

This bike was very scary to ride because it was so unstable but I used it for over a year until the batteries finally packed it in.

I loved the idea of riding an electric bike to work because it was cost effective and I avoided all the traffic but it needed some dramatic improvements.

I went back to the drawing board and painstakingly researched bicycle geometry, suspension forks, batteries, battery management systems, motors, controllers, and any other parts I would need to build the ultimate electric bike.

Then I started testing different bike parts and electrical components picking the ones that worked the best and assembled them from the ground up building the perfect electric bike.

I now have a 100% electric vehicle that I use as a replacement for my car. Not only do I get to work faster than it used to take me to drive, it only costs me pennies a day to recharge the bike.

The electric bike works so well I decided to sell my car which gave me $13,000 cash in my pocket on top of the $1,200 I saved on car insurance.

The only downside of riding the electric bike, if you can call it that, is the bike is an incredible attention magnet. Everywhere I ride people are constantly stopping me to ask questions about it.

On my very first test ride after building the new bike I pulled over to the side of the road after 15 minutes of riding. A few minutes later a city works vehicle pulled up beside me and came to a screeching stop in the middle of the road.

Two city workers with stunned looks on their faces jumped out and ran over to me. They said I passed them several kilometers back and they just had to find out what I was riding.

They were blown away by the bike and immediatley starting asking questions about it so they could build their own.

After an overwhelming number of similar requests from people who stop and ask me about the bike I decided to document the entire build of this awesome electric bicycle in my brand new ebook called

“How To Build a 50MPH Electric Bike”

You can build the exact same bike at home using this easy to follow step by step manual, even if you have no previous experience. The ebook is a pdf file that can be downloaded in just a few minutes and viewed using the latest version of adobe acrobat which you can download for free.

Testimonial

Greg,

My name is Evan Filter, and my Drexel University senior design team and I are designing electric motor assistance systems for Drexel’s Human Powered Vehicles. I read through your “How to Build a 50MPH Electric Bike” document forwarded from Dr. Layton, and your bike is really amazing. I would love to use your expertise as we go along. Please let me know if you would do us the honor. Thanks

Evan Filter Mechanical Engineering and Mechanics Drexel University

In this book I have filled over 100 pages with the detailed information you need showing you exactly how to build a fast electric bike even if you are a complete novice and know nothing about bikes or electricity.

Included in the book is more than 150 high quality photographs so you can see how it’s done.

I take you by the hand and walk you step by step through the entire build process to ensure you will be riding your bike in no time.

Here is a list of just some of the benefits you get from building an electric bike yourself:

Lowest cost electric vehicle -Because you need such a small battery pack compared to an electric car or motorcycle you can afford to buy the latest technology batteries which means they can last up to 10 years before they need replacing.

Never wait in traffic again – simply pass all the slow cars by riding on the shoulder or in the bike lane.

Ride at the same speed as a car – I will show you the secrets to increasing the power from a standard motor controller so you can ride at speeds over 50MPH and out accelerate most cars from a stop.

Choose how far you want to ride – I show you the simple calculations to determine what size battery pack you need to travel a specified distance. My bike has a range of 30 to 50 miles depending how fast I ride before it needs recharged.

Save money on insurance and vehicle costs – you won’t need to own or insure a car when you have a fast electric bike. No more oil changes or vehicle repairs to worry about.

Never buy gas again – simply plug your bike into your charger and recharge it for pennies a day.

Never pay for parking again – just lock your bike to the closest bike rack or in a secured bike locker.

Reduce your carbon footprint – stop polluting by using an eco-friendly electric vehicle.

Ride warm all year long – You will learn how to ride warm and comfortable in temperatures well below freezing by making your own heated jacket (one of the free bonuses you will receive).

Ride silently – You may be surprised by the wildlife you see on a bike trail because the animals can’t hear you. I have seen coyotes, skunks (don’t get to close), owls,deer and even a beaver on the bike trails riding home from work.

Experience the EV Grin – this is the huge smile you will have on your face after your first ride on your new electric bike.

Testimonial

“I am very impressed with Greg’s eBook, it is remarkably thorough, detailing exactly how to build your own 50mph electric bike step by step. There are illustrations on nearly every page to help you along the way, which is great for those tricky wiring parts! All in all this is a very comprehensive and well-written guide and I would recommend it to anyone looking to build their own fast electric bike. Can’t wait to start my own! Thanks Greg!” Sam C.

Now lets take a look at the wealth of information your are about to discover.

Introduction (pages 5-7)

Find out how it’s possible to cut your commuting time by more than 50% riding an electric bike instead of driving.

Learn why you should stay away from “store bought” electric bikes and see why building your own electric bike will save you money and give you a bike that outperforms all the commercial bikes.

Choosing a Bike (pages 8-18)

Discover why you MUST use this type of bicycle frame when building a high performance electric bike so the bike is safe to ride at high speed.

Learn why an extra large size frame is perfect if you want a long range electric bike even if you usually ride a small or medium frame.

You will also learn how to lower the standover height of your XL frame which means it will be comfortable to ride no matter what your height while increasing the performance of the bike at the same time.

Find out what the best type of fork is for a fast electric bike so it handles like a motorcycle and easily survives the braking stresses of stopping a heavy electric bike.

See how simply changing the handlebars and stem can increase the comfort of a bike frame that would normally be to big for you.

Discover why you may want to make THESE modifications to the drivetrain which will increase space for batteries and allow you to mount a disk brake on the rear.

Learn what the best rims are for maximum acceleration and reliability as well as exactly where to buy them online.

I show you the three things you need to prevent flat tires forever so you will NEVER have to repair a flat on the side of the road again.

Choosing Electrical Components (pages 20-43)

Learn about the different types of motors available for electric bikes and see which one is the BEST for high performance so your bike can keep up with and even pass cars going up hill.

Discover how to select the best controller for your bike and what parts MUST be inside for maximum performance.

Find out about the different types of batteries and why THIS type is the best bang for the buck and the safest.

I show you the easy calculations to figure out how many batteries you need to travel a specific distance so you never get stranded with a dead battery.

See how to easily mock up batteries to test mount them on your bike BEFORE you purchase them.

You will learn all about battery managment systems, why you MUST use one, and exactly where to order one online so you will get many trouble free years from your battery pack.

Learn what type of throttle you DEFINITELY NEED TO AVOID in order to prevent a dangerous situation that could result in a crash causing injury.

Find out where to buy a digital display for your electric bike that monitors all the vital information about your bike and allows you to make adjustments to the performance on the fly.

See what parts you need to purchase from a robot parts supplier instead of an electric bike store to maximized the performance and reliability of your bike.

Learn how to lower the voltage of your battery pack to power your lights and other accesories so you don’t need to add a second battery pack.

Discover how to make a cheap and reliable battery charger by purchasing THESE parts off ebay.

Find out how to install an adjustable knob on your bike to power a heated jacket by purchasing THIS $20 part online.

Building the Bike (pages 44-105)

Learn how to easily modify a hub motor to fit a disk brake rotor so you can take advantage of the incredible stopping power of hydraulic disk brakes.

Discover how you can prevent your motor from overheating by purchasing THIS $20 item from an R/C hobby shop and learn the easy modifications to help cool your motor.

See why you must make one of THESE to prevent your axle from spinning in the frame and tearing apart all your wiring.

Discover how simple modifications to the frame will provide more room for batteries increasing the range of your bike.

Find out the best place to mount your batteries so the bike is well balanced and handles like a motorcycle.

I will show you in great detail how to build your own custom battery boxes to perfectly fit your bike using parts from your local hardware store.

Find out how to create the perfect hiding place for all the sensitive electrical components and wiring as well a waterproofing techniques which means your bike will look clean and be protected from the rain.

Discover the secret modifications to increase the power from your controller by more than 400% so you can drag race cars from a red light and WIN!

With all this information at your fingerstips you will avoid the common mistakes most people encounter building their first electric bike.

I have made all these mistakes and learned from trial and error what works and what doesn’t so I can pass it on to you. This will save you time and money.

My book shows you the proper techiques and best parts to use when building your own fast and reliable electric bike so you can bypass the gas stations, blast past traffic and cut your commuting costs to a fraction of what you spend driving.

Imagine how much money you will save on fuel costs, insurance and parking!

This is no other ebook available anywhere on the internet that contains detailed step by step instructions on how to build a high performance electric bike.

What is an incredible resource like this worth ?

I have invested over $6000 in research and development building several bikes over the past fews years to find out what works best. Using my guide you can build a bike similar to mine for as little as $1500 using the lastest technology bike parts and batteries.

This book can save you well over $4500 by showing how to build your bike right the first time.

When you think about how much money you can save by not having to experiment yourself, and the time you will save knowing exactly where to find the parts you need, this resource is definitely worth well over a hundered dollars.

I was initially going to offer this rare ebook for $97 to help promote electric vehicles but because I need more testimonials for my website I am discounting the price to $47.

That’s less than the cost of a pair of tires for your bike.

Testimonial

Greg’s book provides thorough instructions for building your own bike with many great illustrations taken along the way.The final product has incredible acceleration and an unbelievable top speed.

Nice work Greg. See you on the streets.

Guy Teigen Engineering Manager Jastram Engineering Ltd. North Vancouver, Canada

For even more value I will include the following free bonuses.

Bonus #1 (How to Make a Bike Light)

In this ebook ($27 value for Free) you will learn how to make a powerful low cost dual light setup for your ebike using parts available at your local hardware store. For a fraction of what it would cost you to buy a high power mountain bike light you can make your own and will have no problem riding on the darkest of roads or trails at high speed.

Bonus #2 (How to Make a Heated Jacket)

This ebook ($27 value for free) shows you how to make a heated jacket for less than $40 that plugs right into your electric bike and keeps you nice and warm during cold weather riding. This can save you several hundred dollars as a store bought jacket can cost over $400. You will also find out why store bought heated jackets or other DIY jackets may not produce enough heat when used on an electric bike. In the book you will find all the calculatings you need to make a jacket that produces as much heat as you want.

To completely remove any risk on your part, I offer a 100% money back guarantee. Take a full 60 days to look over the ebook and if you are not completely satisfied just let me know and I will promptly send you a refund.

Your purchase is completely risk free!

This Book is Not Available in Stores.

So if you have decided that never paying for gas again, making traffic jams a thing of the past, eliminating parking problems and reducing your carbon footprint PLUS the two free bonuses are worth $97 $47 then here’s how to claim your copy.

To order “How to Build a 50MPH Electric Bike” via a secure clickbank server for only $47 plus the two free bonuses, click here now.

Don’t be a victim of rising gas prices!

P.S. By ordering “How to Build a 50MPH Electric Bike” today the fuel sitting in your cars gas tank right now may be the last gasoline you ever buy. This ebook takes you by the hand and walks you step by step through the entire build process showing you exactly how to build a high performance electric bike.

P.S.S. Don’t forget, today you are getting a $151 value for only $47 if you order now. Don’t delay or you may lose out on this limited offer.Click here to claim your risk free copy and start going green today.

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