#the last 6 months have been better than 2020 2021 and 2022 combined

[niallandtommo]

.

[yourreddancer]

Heather Cox Richardson

January 22, 2022 (Saturday)

Joe Biden’s presidency is just over a year old.Biden has embraced the old idea, established by the Democrats under President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and the Republicans under President Dwight D. Eisenhower, that in a democracy, the federal government has a responsibility to keep the playing field level for all. It must regulate business to maintain competition and prevent corporations from abusing their employees, protect civil rights, provide a basic social safety net, and promote infrastructure. 

Our forty-sixth president came into office in the midst of crisis. The coronavirus pandemic had killed more than 407,000 Americans, and the previous president’s quest to radicalize voters in spring 2020 had led to angry mobs rejecting the preventive measures other countries took. The economy was bottoming out as the pandemic killed workers, discombobulated workplaces, and disrupted supply chains. And the previous president was so determined not to give up power that he had incited his followers to attack Congress and the U.S. Capitol during the formal ceremony acknowledging Biden’s victory. 

Even after the horrors of that day, 147 members of the Republican Party doubled down on the lie that Trump had really won the election. And when the Democratic House impeached Trump for inciting the insurrection, ending our country’s 224-year tradition of a peaceful transition of power, Republican senators acquitted him. 

Republican lawmakers’ support for the Big Lie indicated how they would approach Biden’s presidency. They stand diametrically opposed to Biden, rejecting Democrats’ vision of the federal government. They are eager to return power to the states to do as they will, recognizing that the end of federal regulation will give far more freedom to people of wealth and that the end of federal protection of civil rights will, in certain states, permit white evangelical Christians to reclaim the “traditional” society they crave.

Biden set out to use government to make people’s lives better and, apparently, believed that successful policies would bring enough Republicans behind his program to ease the country’s extreme partisanship.

He fought the pandemic by invoking the Defense Production Act, buying more vaccines, working with states to establish vaccine sites and transportation to them, and establishing vaccine centers in pharmacies across the country. Vaccinations took off, and he vowed to make sure that 70% of the U.S. adult population would have one vaccine shot and 160 million U.S. adults would be fully vaccinated by July 4th.

At the same time, Democrats passed the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan to jump-start the economy by putting money into the pockets of ordinary Americans.The new law cut child poverty in half by putting $66 billion into 36 million households. It expanded access to the Affordable Care Act, enabling more than 4.6 million Americans who were not previously insured to get healthcare coverage and bringing the total covered to a record 13.6 million. 

Money from those programs bolstered household savings and fired up consumer spending. By the end of the year, U.S. companies were showing 15%  profit margins, higher than they have been since 1950. Companies reduced their debt, which translated to a strong stock market. In February, Biden’s first month in office, the jobless rate was 6.2%; by December it had dropped to 4.2%. This means that 4.1 million jobs were created in the Biden administration’s first year, more than were created in the 12 years of the Trump and George W. Bush administrations combined.

Then, in November, Congress passed a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill that will repair bridges and roads and get broadband to places that still don’t have it.U.S. economic output jumped more than 7% in the last three months of 2021. Overall growth for 2021 should be about 6%, and economists predict growth of around 4% in 2022—the highest numbers the U.S. has seen in decades, and higher than any other country in the world. Despite the increased spending, the federal budget deficit in the first quarter of fiscal year 2022 dropped 33% from that of 2021. The downside of this growth was inflation of up to 7%, but this is a global problem and exactly why it’s happening is unclear—increased spending has created pent-up demand, and prices have been unstable because of the pandemic.

Biden reoriented U.S. foreign policy to defend democracy. He immediately took steps to rejoin the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate Accords, and he and Secretary of State Antony Blinken worked hard to rebuild the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and to replace our outdated focus on combating terrorism on the ground with combating it by defunding terrorists. Biden ended the unpopular 20-year war in Afghanistan and negotiated the exit of U.S. combat troops from Iraq, where we had been for more than 18 years. About 2500 U.S. personnel remain alongside their Iraqi counterparts to hold back remaining ISIS terrorists.

The end of those wars has also given Biden the room virtually to eliminate the U.S. use of drone strikes and airstrikes. In Trump’s first 11 months he authorized more than 1600 airstrikes; Biden has significantly tightened the process of authorization and has authorized 4.

Instead of focusing on soldiers, Biden dramatically increased the use of economic sanctions on international criminals and prosecutions for international criminal behavior to stop the flow of money to terrorists. Biden’s Treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, also helped to hammer out an international minimum tax that will help to close foreign tax shelters.

Biden is turning to these financial tools and the strength of NATO to try to stop another Russian incursion into Ukraine. He has warned Russian president Vladimir Putin that military aggression into a sovereign country will lead to crippling economic backlash, and U.S. ally Germany has put off approval of the valuable Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline Russia has constructed to Europe, worth tens of billions of dollars.

By any historical measure, Biden’s first year has been a roaring success, proving that democracy can, in fact, provide better lives for its people and can protect the rule of law internationally. And yet Biden’s popularity hovers in the low 40s.

Biden’s worldview demands that government accomplish things; the Republicans simply have to say no. They have focused on stopping Biden and the success of his view of government, and because it is only the Democrats who are in the arena, as President Theodore Roosevelt put it, Democrats are bearing the weight of popular discontent. 

When the withdrawal from Afghanistan initially produced chaos as the Afghan government collapsed, Republicans hammered on the idea that Biden—and by extension a Democratic government—was incompetent. His numbers began to plummet, and the subsequent success of the largest human airlift in history did not change that narrative. 

If Afghanistan happened organically, criticism of government could also be manufactured. In July, as the vaccination program appeared to be meeting Biden’s goals, Republicans began to insist that government vaccine outreach was government tyranny. Vaccination rates began to drop off just as the contagious Delta variant began to rage. When Biden tried to address the falling vaccination rates by requiring that federal workers and contractors, health care workers, and workers at businesses with more than 100 employees be vaccinated or frequently tested, Republicans railed that he was destroying American freedom.  

Their argument took hold: by early December, 40% of Republican adults were unvaccinated, compared with fewer than 10% of adult Democrats, making Republicans three times more likely than Democrats to die of Covid. Rather than ending and giving Biden a historical success, the pandemic has continued on, weakening the economy and sparking chaos over masks and school reopenings as Republicans radicalize. Just last week, a woman in Virginia threatened to come to her child’s school with “every single gun loaded and ready” if the school board required masks. 

That radicalization, stoked by Republican leaders, is at the point of destroying, once and for all, the idea of a government that works for the people. Republican leaders have stood by as Trump and his lackeys goaded followers into believing that Democratic governance is illegitimate and that Democrats must be kept from power. Following a playbook Republicans have used since 1994, Trump and his loyalists insisted—and continue to insist—on ongoing “audits” of the 2020 vote, knowing that seeing such “investigations” in the news would convince many voters that there must be something there, just as the 2016 ruckus over Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s emails convinced many Americans that she had done something illegal. 

It has worked. Although there is zero evidence of significant voter fraud, so far, 19 Republican-dominated states have passed 33 laws to make it harder for Democrats to vote, or to turn over the counting of votes to partisan Republicans. When Democrats tried to stop such a takeover of our democracy, all 50 Republicans in the Senate opposed federal protection of the right to vote. (Two Democrats joined them in refusing to overrule the filibuster, thus dooming the law to fail.) Now Republicans in three states have proposed election police forces to stop what they continue to insist—without evidence—are voting crimes.

And so, at the end of Biden’s first year—a year that by any standard must be called a success—Republicans are at the verge of achieving, at least for now, the end of the liberal democracy Americans have enjoyed since FDR and the Democrats embraced it in the 1930s, instead eroding the federal government and turning power over to the states. 

In a two-hour press conference at the end of his first year, Biden said he did not anticipate the degree of obstruction he would face, and he expressed regret that he hadn’t “been able to…get my Republican friends to get in the game of making things better in this country….” “Think about this,” he said, “What are Republicans for? What are they for? Name me one thing they’re for.”

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has said that Senate Republicans will offer no legislative agenda before the 2022 elections and that he is “100 percent” focused “on stopping” Biden. 

From the other side, Biden’s inaugural committee is celebrating the president’s first year in office with a video narrated by actor Tom Hanks in which ordinary Americans try to reclaim an older vision of an America in which we worked together for the good of all. They talk about how in the past year more than 200 million Americans have been vaccinated, how we have created more jobs in 2021 than in any year in the previous 80, how we lifted children out of poverty and are rebuilding roads and bridges, and how, historically, America is strong, courageous, resilient, and optimistic and can do anything, if only we will work together.

[reading-writing-revolution]

Heather Cox Richardson

January 22, 2022 (Saturday)

Joe Biden’s presidency is just over a year old.

Biden has embraced the old idea, established by the Democrats under President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and the Republicans under President Dwight D. Eisenhower, that in a democracy, the federal government has a responsibility to keep the playing field level for all. It must regulate business to maintain competition and prevent corporations from abusing their employees, protect civil rights, provide a basic social safety net, and promote infrastructure.

Our forty-sixth president came into office in the midst of crisis. The coronavirus pandemic had killed more than 407,000 Americans, and the previous president’s quest to radicalize voters in spring 2020 had led to angry mobs rejecting the preventive measures other countries took. The economy was bottoming out as the pandemic killed workers, discombobulated workplaces, and disrupted supply chains. And the previous president was so determined not to give up power that he had incited his followers to attack Congress and the U.S. Capitol during the formal ceremony acknowledging Biden’s victory.

Even after the horrors of that day, 147 members of the Republican Party doubled down on the lie that Trump had really won the election. And when the Democratic House impeached Trump for inciting the insurrection, ending our country’s 224-year tradition of a peaceful transition of power, Republican senators acquitted him.

Republican lawmakers’ support for the Big Lie indicated how they would approach Biden’s presidency. They stand diametrically opposed to Biden, rejecting Democrats’ vision of the federal government. They are eager to return power to the states to do as they will, recognizing that the end of federal regulation will give far more freedom to people of wealth and that the end of federal protection of civil rights will, in certain states, permit white evangelical Christians to reclaim the “traditional” society they crave.

Biden set out to use government to make people’s lives better and, apparently, believed that successful policies would bring enough Republicans behind his program to ease the country’s extreme partisanship.

He fought the pandemic by invoking the Defense Production Act, buying more vaccines, working with states to establish vaccine sites and transportation to them, and establishing vaccine centers in pharmacies across the country. Vaccinations took off, and he vowed to make sure that 70% of the U.S. adult population would have one vaccine shot and 160 million U.S. adults would be fully vaccinated by July 4th.

At the same time, Democrats passed the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan to jump-start the economy by putting money into the pockets of ordinary Americans.The new law cut child poverty in half by putting $66 billion into 36 million households. It expanded access to the Affordable Care Act, enabling more than 4.6 million Americans who were not previously insured to get healthcare coverage and bringing the total covered to a record 13.6 million.

Money from those programs bolstered household savings and fired up consumer spending. By the end of the year, U.S. companies were showing 15% profit margins, higher than they have been since 1950. Companies reduced their debt, which translated to a strong stock market. In February, Biden’s first month in office, the jobless rate was 6.2%; by December it had dropped to 4.2%. This means that 4.1 million jobs were created in the Biden administration’s first year, more than were created in the 12 years of the Trump and George W. Bush administrations combined.

Then, in November, Congress passed a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill that will repair bridges and roads and get broadband to places that still don’t have it.

U.S. economic output jumped more than 7% in the last three months of 2021. Overall growth for 2021 should be about 6%, and economists predict growth of around 4% in 2022—the highest numbers the U.S. has seen in decades, and higher than any other country in the world. Despite the increased spending, the federal budget deficit in the first quarter of fiscal year 2022 dropped 33% from that of 2021. The downside of this growth was inflation of up to 7%, but this is a global problem and exactly why it’s happening is unclear—increased spending has created pent-up demand, and prices have been unstable because of the pandemic.

Biden reoriented U.S. foreign policy to defend democracy. He immediately took steps to rejoin the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate Accords, and he and Secretary of State Antony Blinken worked hard to rebuild the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and to replace our outdated focus on combating terrorism on the ground with combating it by defunding terrorists. Biden ended the unpopular 20-year war in Afghanistan and negotiated the exit of U.S. combat troops from Iraq, where we had been for more than 18 years. About 2500 U.S. personnel remain alongside their Iraqi counterparts to hold back remaining ISIS terrorists.

The end of those wars has also given Biden the room virtually to eliminate the U.S. use of drone strikes and airstrikes. In Trump’s first 11 months he authorized more than 1600 airstrikes; Biden has significantly tightened the process of authorization and has authorized 4.

Instead of focusing on soldiers, Biden dramatically increased the use of economic sanctions on international criminals and prosecutions for international criminal behavior to stop the flow of money to terrorists. Biden’s Treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, also helped to hammer out an international minimum tax that will help to close foreign tax shelters.

Biden is turning to these financial tools and the strength of NATO to try to stop another Russian incursion into Ukraine. He has warned Russian president Vladimir Putin that military aggression into a sovereign country will lead to crippling economic backlash, and U.S. ally Germany has put off approval of the valuable Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline Russia has constructed to Europe, worth tens of billions of dollars.

By any historical measure, Biden’s first year has been a roaring success, proving that democracy can, in fact, provide better lives for its people and can protect the rule of law internationally. And yet Biden’s popularity hovers in the low 40s.

Biden’s worldview demands that government accomplish things; the Republicans simply have to say no. They have focused on stopping Biden and the success of his view of government, and because it is only the Democrats who are in the arena, as President Theodore Roosevelt put it, Democrats are bearing the weight of popular discontent.

When the withdrawal from Afghanistan initially produced chaos as the Afghan government collapsed, Republicans hammered on the idea that Biden—and by extension a Democratic government—was incompetent. His numbers began to plummet, and the subsequent success of the largest human airlift in history did not change that narrative.

If Afghanistan happened organically, criticism of government could also be manufactured. In July, as the vaccination program appeared to be meeting Biden’s goals, Republicans began to insist that government vaccine outreach was government tyranny. Vaccination rates began to drop off just as the contagious Delta variant began to rage. When Biden tried to address the falling vaccination rates by requiring that federal workers and contractors, health care workers, and workers at businesses with more than 100 employees be vaccinated or frequently tested, Republicans railed that he was destroying American freedom.

Their argument took hold: by early December, 40% of Republican adults were unvaccinated, compared with fewer than 10% of adult Democrats, making Republicans three times more likely than Democrats to die of Covid. Rather than ending and giving Biden a historical success, the pandemic has continued on, weakening the economy and sparking chaos over masks and school reopenings as Republicans radicalize. Just last week, a woman in Virginia threatened to come to her child’s school with “every single gun loaded and ready” if the school board required masks.

That radicalization, stoked by Republican leaders, is at the point of destroying, once and for all, the idea of a government that works for the people. Republican leaders have stood by as Trump and his lackeys goaded followers into believing that Democratic governance is illegitimate and that Democrats must be kept from power. Following a playbook Republicans have used since 1994, Trump and his loyalists insisted—and continue to insist—on ongoing “audits” of the 2020 vote, knowing that seeing such “investigations” in the news would convince many voters that there must be something there, just as the 2016 ruckus over Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s emails convinced many Americans that she had done something illegal.

It has worked. Although there is zero evidence of significant voter fraud, so far, 19 Republican-dominated states have passed 33 laws to make it harder for Democrats to vote, or to turn over the counting of votes to partisan Republicans. When Democrats tried to stop such a takeover of our democracy, all 50 Republicans in the Senate opposed federal protection of the right to vote. (Two Democrats joined them in refusing to overrule the filibuster, thus dooming the law to fail.) Now Republicans in three states have proposed election police forces to stop what they continue to insist—without evidence—are voting crimes.

And so, at the end of Biden’s first year—a year that by any standard must be called a success—Republicans are at the verge of achieving, at least for now, the end of the liberal democracy Americans have enjoyed since FDR and the Democrats embraced it in the 1930s, instead eroding the federal government and turning power over to the states.

In a two-hour press conference at the end of his first year, Biden said he did not anticipate the degree of obstruction he would face, and he expressed regret that he hadn’t “been able to…get my Republican friends to get in the game of making things better in this country….” “Think about this,” he said, “What are Republicans for? What are they for? Name me one thing they’re for.”

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has said that Senate Republicans will offer no legislative agenda before the 2022 elections and that he is “100 percent” focused “on stopping” Biden.

From the other side, Biden’s inaugural committee is celebrating the president’s first year in office with a video narrated by actor Tom Hanks in which ordinary Americans try to reclaim an older vision of an America in which we worked together for the good of all. They talk about how in the past year more than 200 million Americans have been vaccinated, how we have created more jobs in 2021 than in any year in the previous 80, how we lifted children out of poverty and are rebuilding roads and bridges, and how, historically, America is strong, courageous, resilient, and optimistic and can do anything, if only we will work together.

[slapmeagain-blog]

I said I was a writer.....

November 8, 2021

Just looked as a post from May 2020 which started with the line, “I can’t believe it’s been 12 days since my last post.” What? I’m delusional.  I never said I would actually write for a living.  And if this blog was any indication of my potential productivity, I’d be living in a trailer.  I suppose I could argue that I’m too busy living to write about it, but that would be hackneyed and simply untrue.  I seldom get up before 8, I take at least a 45 minute nap every afternoon, and I’m in bed every night before midnight.  Sometimes I’m too lazy to take a shower.  Sometimes I just want to stay prone all day long, especially if I’ve been paying too much attention to the news.  I’m such a lazy writer that the Daily News has started quoting my stolen quotes: “Democrats snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.” (Yet again.)

The 2021 local elections and some gubernatorial races were last week.  The Dems did not do well which bodes ill for the 2022 mid-term elections next year.  The Republicans took back the governorship of Virginia, and the Democrat governor or New Jersey, who was expected to win easily, won by a much smaller margin than expected.  Tomorrow I’m seeing my gastroenterologist because of esophageal problems related to politics (I keep wanting to throw up in my mouth).  I have been suffering from problems swallowing food and liquids as well as acid indigestion for a couple of months now.  It seems to be subsiding for the most part, but want to get it checked out anyway.  Marco’s similar issues have improved dramatically from a few months back with meds and a change in eating habits, but overall I think that both of us have conditions triggered by stress.

Stress.  Everybody’s talking about it these days.  COVID stress, the stress of the state of the nation, the economy.  I’m not sure which is my biggest stressor, but I’m betting on a combination of feeling “homeless’ for the past 18 months, and the continuing hangover from the 2020 election, which Trump and the members of his cult still claim he ‘won’.  Even though all of their claims of election fraud have proven false in more that 60 different legal actions brought by various players in more than a dozen states, they just don’t give up.  January 6th to them was still either a “patriots” uprising, or according to some members of congress, paraphrasing, “.... no different than any group of tourists visiting the Capitol...” What?  One of the so-called ‘patriots’ charged with 6 crimes for his involvement was reported this morning by CNN to have fled the country and is applying for asylum in Belarus.  How’s that for ridiculous?  Someone allegedly participating in Capitol police beatings to ‘save’ US democracy from election fraud seeking asylum from one of the former soviet authoritarian regimes!  

Well, I feel my bile rising, so let’s look at my other main source of acid reflux and find out if it goes up or down.  Both Marco and I, since we sold the house in Brooklyn and closed the B&B last May, have been feeling as if we are drifting, both in terms of earning an income, and in terms of having a place to call home.  

And speaking of “senior moments,” oh, we weren’t?  Well, now we are.  When I logged on earlier to write this post I found three posts that were still in the “draft” folder dating back to as far as September 2020.  I proofread and posted those before I started this one.  But it gets better....... 

[patriotsnet]

Is The House Democrats Or Republicans

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/is-the-house-democrats-or-republicans/

Is The House Democrats Or Republicans

House And Senate Odds Preview

Should Democrats or Republicans be optimistic for midterm elections?

In 2020, the market expectation was a Democratic sweep of the three elected positions, and while it took two months and quite a lot of Georgia-based panic, Democrats did sweep the Presidency, Senate control, and House control, albeit by nowhere close to the margins they were expected to. This time around, the question is whether or not the GOP can gain one or both of those chambers again, and whether or not the PredictIt odds for any of the four possible combinations provides any value.

There are four possible combinations either party to control both chambers or one party to control either chamber.

In theory, if these were independent events, any of those four combinations would be equally as likely as each other, but given politics are correlated, you see thats not really the case. A GOP sweep of both chambers is the favorite at $0.45, which makes sense, given the widespread narrative that the GOP are favorites because of history and the way midterms generally go badly for the party of the Presidency.

However, Donald Trump did win Senate seats in his only midterm, and that same historical argument would have suggested Republicans would romp home easily in Georgia in January.

If you are a Democratic optimist, then the $0.29 on split government a Democratic Senate and a Republican House or the $0.21 on Dem unified control might be appealing.

Poll Finds Startling Difference In Vaccinations Among Us Republicans And Democrats

A Washington Post-ABC News poll has found a startling difference between Democrats and Republicans as it relates to COVID-19;vaccination.;The poll found that while 86% of Democrats have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine shot, only 45% of Republicans;have.

In addition, the survey found;that while;only;6% of Democrats said they would;probably;decline;the vaccine, 47% of Republicans;said they;would;probably not;be inoculated.;

The poll also found that;60% of unvaccinated Americans believe the U.S. is;exaggerating;the dangers of;the;COVID-19;delta variant,;while;18% of the unvaccinated say the government is accurately describing the variants risks.

However, 64% of vaccinated Americans believe the government is accurately describing the dangers of the;delta variant.

Iran fighting COVID 5th wave The variant is having a;global impact.;Irans;President;Hassan Rouhani;has warned that the country is on the brink of a fifth wave of;a COVID-19 outbreak.;The;delta variant of the virus, first;identified;in India, is;largely;responsible;for the;rising number of hospitalizations and deaths in Iran, officials say.

All;non-essential businesses have been ordered;closed;in 275 cities, including Tehran, the capital.;Travel has also been restricted between cities that are;experiencing;high infection rates.

Reports say only about 5% of Iranians have been vaccinated.;

Oregon House Republicans Say Theyre At Impasse Over Democrats Redistricting Plan

Oregon lawmakers, shown here during a January 2021 swearing-in ceremony, are set to meet at the Capitol Monday to approve new legislative and congressional district lines that will determine how voters are represented for the next decade in Salem and Washington, D.C. House Republicans’ leader on Thursday said her caucus would not support Democrats’ plans.Brooke Herbert/The Oregonian

Oregon Democrats congressional and legislative redistricting plans set for a vote in next weeks special session face a roadblock in the state House, where Republican Leader Christine Drazan said on Thursday that her caucus is united in its opposition to Democrats proposed maps.

State lawmakers wrapped up four days of lengthy public hearings on their initial congressional and state legislative district proposals Sept. 13, and they are scheduled to meet Monday for a special session to vote on final plans.

Democrats and Republicans privately discussed potential changes to the Democrats proposed maps over the last couple days. But Democrats, who hold supermajorities in both chambers, had not released any final plans for the public to see until Thursday night.

Under Senate Democrats plans, both chambers would likely continue to have Democratic supermajorities, meaning the party would hold at least 60% of the seats in each chamber, even though Joe Biden only claimed 56% of votes Oregonians cast in the 2020 presidential election.

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Y Leaders Of The United States House Of Representatives

Party leaders and whips of the United States House of Representatives, also known as floor leaders, are elected by their respective parties in a closed-door caucus by secret ballot. With the Democrats holding a majority of seats and the Republicans holding a minority, the current leaders are Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Minority Whip Steve Scalise.

Balance Of Power: 2022 Senate Races

If Democrats want to win the Senate again, they need to win the four competitive seats they currently hold Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. That or augment any loss with a gain in any of their three competitive targets Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or North Carolina.

This Senate preview still holds up, but the shorter version is Democrats are easily favored in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. They should also win New Hampshire if Chris Sununu doesnt run .

The thing is, theyre also favored to win in Pennsylvania, where they have a strong field of primary candidates and where Joe Biden won.

They have to be no worse than, and admittedly probably better than, a tossup in Wisconsin, where Republicans have candidate issues and Democrats have a strong likely nominee.

So even if New Hampshire goes Republican because of some local candidate factors, Democrats are in a good spot to win the Senate again.

That means if youre trying to make a bet, you can essentially box out two of four combinations where the GOP wins the Senate, and focus your attention on the two remaining options, if youre looking for the values.

Read Also: How Many Seats Do The Republicans Have In Senate

The Party Thats Actually Best For The Economy

Many analyses look at which party is best for the economy. A study from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that Democratic presidents since World War II have performed much better than Republicans. On average, Democratic presidents grew the economy 4.4% each year versus 2.5% for Republicans.

A study by Princeton University economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson found that the economy performs better when the president is a Democrat. They report that by many measures, the performance gap is startlingly large. Between Truman and Obama, growth was 1.8% higher under Democrats than Republicans.

A Hudson Institute study found that the six years with the best growth were evenly split between Republican and Democrat presidents.

Most of these evaluations measure growth during the presidents term in office. But no president has control over the growth added during his first year. The budget for that fiscal year was already set by the previous president, so you should compare the gross domestic product at the end of the presidents last budget to the end of his predecessors last budget.

For Obama, that would be the fiscal year from October 1, 2009, to September 30, 2018. Thats FY 2010 through FY 2017. During that time, GDP increased from $15.6 trillion to $17.7 trillion, or by 14%. Thats 1.7% a year.

The chart below ranks the presidents since 1929 on the average annual increase in GDP.

President

1.4%

A president would have better growth if he had no recession.

The Houses Balance Of Power Is Tipped Toward Democrats

The Democrats;have a narrow six-member margin in the current House of Representatives, meaning if just a handful of seats flip, Republicans can regain control of the House.

Democrats;advantage;will grow to seven when Troy Carter is sworn in;to fill a seat in Louisianas delegation left vacant;by Cedric Richmond, who left the House to join the Biden administration as the director of the White House Office of Public Engagement.;

Read Also: Who Controls The Senate Republicans Or Democrats

Census Data Sets Up Redistricting Fight Over Growing Suburbs

The once-a-decade battle over redistricting is set to be a showdown over the suburbs, as new census data showed rapid growth around some of the nations largest cities and shrinking population in many rural counties.

From Texas to Florida, some of the biggest gains reported Thursday came in states where Republicans will control the redistricting process, but often in and around cities where Democrats have been faring well in recent elections.

The new detailed population data from the 2020 census will serve as the building block to redraw 429 U.S. House districts in 44 states and 7,383 state legislative districts across the U.S. The official goal is to ensure each district has roughly the same number of people.

But many Republicans and Democrats also will be trying to ensure the new lines divide and combine voters in ways that make it more likely for their partys candidates to win future elections, a process called gerrymandering. The parties successes in that effort could determine whether taxes and spending grow, climate-change polices are approved or access to abortion is expanded or curtailed.

Black Democrat Collective To Challenge House Republicans

Democrats take House, Republicans keep Senate in historic midterms

A growing group of Black Democrats mostly men is stepping up to try to unseat Republican House members in California, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and Illinois.

Why it matters: Although independent analysts like the Cook Political Report think the members’ districts are friendly GOP territory, a Black political group backing the challengers believes the candidates have a chance because of their local ties and the districts’ changing demographics.

Stay on top of the latest market trends and economic insights with Axios Markets.

The backdrop: So far, nine Black Democrats are running to challenge Republicans in these states, but The Collective PAC tells Axios that number will grow by five or more. All but one is a Black man.

What they’re saying: “Our mission is about building Black political power,” said Kevin Olasanoye, The Collective PAC’s political director. It works to ensure equal Black representation at all levels of government.

Between the lines: These campaigns are still in their early stages and the candidates haven’t even conducted polling to find particular vulnerabilities in their Republican opponents.

What to watch: The Collective said it doesn’t intend to get involved in primary challenges to any sitting CBC members, including the one being mounted by Kina Collins against Rep. Danny Davis in Ill.-7.

That said, the group isn’t ruling out getting involved in other Dem-on-Dem primaries, Olasanoye said.

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Composition Of The Us House Of Representatives By Political Party Affiliation For The 116th Congress In 2019 By State

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The Number Of People Each House Member Represents Will Change

The number of residents represented by each House member will mostly grow;in 2022, though it will decrease per representative in some states.;

Since Montana gained a representative, its two House members will now split the states population currently represented by Rep. Matt Rosendale, a Republican. The addition of another House seat means Montanas House members will represent the least amount of people compared to House members in other states.

Delawares sole House district, currently held by Democratic Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, will be the largest in terms of population.

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With Control Of White House And Congress Democrats Have 2 Years To Make Big Changes

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U.S. Democrats secured unified control of the White House and Congress on Wednesday with the inauguration of President Joe Biden followed by Vice President Kamala Harris swearing in three new Democratic senators.

The three new senators bring the U.S. Senate to a 50-50 Democratic-Republican tie, with Harris as the presiding officer representing the tie-breaking vote.

With the U.S. House continuing under the leadership of Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Biden begins his term with the opportunity to work with the two Democrat-controlled chambers to enact significant legislative changes.;

As a result of the shifting political power on Capitol Hill, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York has succeeded Republican Mitch McConnell as Senate majority leader. The Kentucky senator, who served in the top leadership post for six years, was highly skilled at blocking Democratic legislation, as well as advancing former President Donald Trumps judicial and administration nominees through the confirmation process.;

Schumer acknowledged some of those challenges Wednesday in his first speech as majority leader.

This Senate will tackle the perils of the moment: a once-in-a-generation health and economic crisis. And it will strive to make progress on generations-long struggle for racial justice, economic justice, equality of opportunity and equality under the law, Schumer said.

Y Divisions Of United States Congresses

Party divisions of United States Congresses have played a central role in the organization and operations of both chambers of the United States Congressthe Senate and the House of Representativessince its establishment as the bicameral legislature of the Federal government of the United States in 1789. Political parties had not been anticipated when the U.S. Constitution was drafted in 1787, nor did they exist at the time the first Senate elections and House elections occurred in 1788 and 1789. Organized political parties developed in the U.S. in the 1790s, but political factionsfrom which organized parties evolvedbegan to appear almost immediately after the 1st Congress convened. Those who supported the Washington administration were referred to as “pro-administration” and would eventually form the Federalist Party, while those in opposition joined the emerging Democratic-Republican Party.

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How The Recall Attempt Made It To The Ballot

Although Gov. Gavin Newsoms critics started their recall attempt because they opposed his stances on the death penalty and immigration, it was the politicization of the pandemic that propelled it onto the ballot as Californians became impatient with shutdowns of businesses and classrooms.

Initiated by a retired Republican sheriffs sergeant in Northern California, Orrin Heatlie, the recall was one of six conservative-led petitions that began circulating within months of Mr. Newsoms inauguration.

Initially, Mr. Heatlies petition had difficulty gaining traction. But it gathered steam as the pandemic swept California and Mr. Newsom struggled to contain it. Californians who at first were supportive of the governors health orders wearied of shutdowns in businesses and classrooms, and public dissatisfaction boiled over in November when Mr. Newsom was spotted mask-free at the French Laundry, an exclusive wine country restaurant, after urging the public to avoid gatherings.

A court order extending the deadline for signature gathering because of pandemic shutdowns allowed recall proponents to capitalize on the outrage and unease.

United States House Of Representatives

United States House of Representatives Flag of the U.S. House of Representatives Type Plurality voting in 46 statesVaries in 4 states

The United States House of Representatives is the lower house of the United States Congress, with the Senate being the upper house. Together they compose the national bicameral legislature of the United States.

The House’s composition is established by Article One of the United States Constitution. The House is composed of representatives who sit in congressional districts allocated to each state on a basis of population as measured by the U.S. Census, with each district having one representative, provided that each state is entitled to at least one. Since its inception in 1789, all representatives have been directly elected. The number of voting representatives is fixed by law at 435. If enacted, the DC Admission Act would permanently increase the number of representatives to 436. In addition, there are currently six non-voting members, bringing the total membership of the House of Representatives to 441 or fewer with vacancies. As of the 2010 Census, the largest delegation is that of California, with 53 representatives. Seven states have only one representative: Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming.

Recommended Reading: How Many Democrats And Republicans Are In The House

I Do Not Buy That A Social Media Ban Hurts Trumps 2024 Aspirations: Nate Silver

sarah: Yeah, Democrats might not have their worst Senate map in 2022, but it will by no means be easy, and how they fare will have a lot to do with the national environment. And as we touched on earlier, Bidens overall approval rating will also make a big difference in Democrats midterm chances.

nrakich: Yeah, if the national environment is even a bit Republican-leaning, that could be enough to allow solid Republican recruits to flip even Nevada and New Hampshire. And then it wouldnt even matter if Democrats win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

One thing is for sure, though whichever party wins the Senate will have only a narrow majority, so I think were stuck in this era of moderates like Sens. Joe Manchin and Lisa Murkowski controlling every bills fate for at least a while longer.;

sarah: Lets talk about big picture strategy, then, and where that leaves us moving forward. Its still early and far too easy to prescribe election narratives that arent grounded in anything, but one gambit the Republican Party seems to be making at this point is that attacking the Democratic Party for being too progressive or woke will help them win.

What do we make of that playbook headed into 2022? Likewise, as the party in charge, what are Democrats planning for?

With that being said, the GOPs strategies could still gin up turnout among its base, in particular, but its hard to separate that from general dissatisfaction with Biden.

[orbemnews]

Analysis: Why Virginia's 2021 elections have national implications And while Virginia is just one state (or commonwealth), the outcome in these races could give us a real clue about where the national political environment stands heading into the 2022 midterms. If Republicans do well this year, it could be a good sign for them next year. Virginia’s unique in that no person can serve as governor more than one term in a row. Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam must step down after this term, meaning the seat is open, and neither Youngkin nor whoever the Democrats choose as their candidate in next month’s primary (probably former Gov. Terry McAuliffe) will have a clear incumbency advantage. That’s important because governor’s races without incumbents running can, on the whole, tell us a lot about the political environment, if we know how to put them in context. When I say context, I mean knowing the political lean of the state. Most political observers view the Democrats as moderately favored to hold on to Virginia’s governor’s mansion because the commonwealth has seen a marked shift to the left in the last decade. President Joe Biden won Virginia by 10 points in 2020, after Hillary Clinton won it by 5 points in 2016. No Republican has won a statewide race in Virginia since 2009. Virginia is 5 points more Democratic than the nation, according to the last two presidential races (when giving more weight to the most recent one). This means that if the Democrats win this year’s governor’s election by 5 points, it’s consistent with a national environment in which the two parties are on equal footing. For Republicans to be facing a better political environment than in 2020 (when Biden won by a little less than 5 points nationally and by 10 points in Virginia), they want to keep any defeat to single digits. To see how the relationship between Virginia elections and next year’s federal elections has worked in the past, look at the last Virginia gubernatorial election in 2017. The state was somewhat less Democratic heading into 2017 with a Democratic lean in presidential elections of a little more than 2 points. The Democrats won the governor’s race by a little less than 9 points, which meant the result was consistent with a national environment of Democrats ahead by about 6.5 points. They would go on to win the national House vote the following year by 8.6 points — very close to the overperformance they had in Virginia. Of course, any one race can be dependent on candidate quality and other factors. Governors’ races individually can be misleading (for example, Democrats winning the 2013 Virginia governor’s race before getting trounced in the 2014 midterms), and they’re best examined as a whole. In the median cycle since 2002, the difference between how much Democrats outperformed their baseline in the average governor’s race without an incumbent and the national House vote has been just 1.6 points. In 2018, it was less than a point. The fact that groups of elections can tell us more than any one individually is why we need to keep an eye on Virginia’s House of Delegates elections this year as well. Any one race’s eccentricities tend to get ironed out in the average. All 100 seats in the state’s lower legislative body are up for grabs. Democrats beat the Republicans by about 9 points when you combined all the House of Delegate races in 2017. In other words, it pointed to a similarly strong national environment for the Democrats as the governor’s race did. In 2013, however, the delegate races pointed in a different direction than the governor’s race. Republicans, who fielded a lot more candidates, did about 13 points better in the delegate races as a whole than would have been expected in a neutral political environment. Looking at just races where both parties ran candidates, it was closer to an 8 point overperformance by Republicans. Republicans would go on to win the House of Representatives in 2014 by about 6 points and easily wrestle Senate control from the Democrats. What this means for 2021 heading into 2022 is pretty simple. Democrats should do well in both the Virginia gubernatorial delegate races, if the political environment is in their favor. If they only barely win or lose in both, we’re probably looking at the usual midterm losses the party that controls the White House has. Source link Orbem News #Analysis #Elections #Implications #National #Politics #Virginias #WhyVirginia's2021electionshavenationalimplications-CNNPolitics

[rightsinexile]

Publications

“Despite the welcome news of [...] additional [Temporary Protected Status] designations, many Venezuelan nationals, Burmese nationals, and stateless people who last resided in Venezuela or Burma are currently in removal proceedings. This practice pointer addresses common questions that arise for practitioners representing TPS-eligible individuals who are in removal proceedings or facing potential removal proceedings, hold dual nationality, or wish to seek asylum.” - Temporary Protected Status: Navigating Removal Proceedings, Dual Nationality, and Asylum. CLINIC. 24 March 2021.

“Our challenge is to continue to think ahead and to aim for real and lasting change even in such times of crisis. During the past year, alongside our emergency programs and appeals to the Israeli authorities for urgent assistance to asylum seekers, we insisted on pursuing long-term solutions. We understood, for example, that despite all the difficulties, this year was a good time to focus on pushing for the opening of Centers for the Prevention of Domestic Violence for asylum seekers and their families. We also saw an opportunity to raise awareness to the situation of asylum seekers’ children: for the first time they were talked about, in the Knesset and elsewhere, not as a separate group but alongside other at-risk children in Israel who have been excluded from online learning.” - 2020 Annual Activity Report. Aid Organization for Refugees and Asylum Seekers in Israel (ASSAF). March 2021.

“[This article] shows that the risks of migration within the Horn of Africa are often well known, thanks to strong migrant networks and improved mobile communications. Indeed, migrants may be better informed of the risks of the journey than they are about their prospects of securing a good living upon arrival. However, rather than discouraging people’s migration, high risk may open up new possibilities. [...] These findings challenge common assumptions about risk and decision-making, and suggests that some migrants may move because of, rather than in spite of, the risks involved. It also calls into question initiatives that seek to deter migration by raising awareness about the risks of the journey.” Extreme Risk Makes the Journey Feasible: Decision-Making amongst Migrants in the Horn of Africa. Oliver Bakewell and Caitlin Sturridge. Social Inclusion. 2021.

“The Commission has since then deployed a rapid investigation mission to Aksum from February 27 to March 5, 2021. Previous attempts by [the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission] to access the city were impeded by the security situation and related issues. The rapid investigation mission spoke to survivors, 45 families of victims, eyewitnesses and religious leaders in the city. It also conducted a focus group discussion with over 20 residents of the city and spoke with local Kebele officials as well as medical personnel of Saint Mary and Aksum Referral Hospitals. The mission also obtained material evidence including video, audio and photographs, from families of victims and relevant authorities.” - Investigation into Grave Human Rights Violations in Aksum City: Report on Preliminary Findings. Ethiopian Human Rights Commission. March 2021.

“This paper assesses the Danish Frederiksen-government´s legislative proposal to externalize asylum processing and refugee obligations from Danish territory. A challenge with this task is the absence of much information in the proposal. Several crucial questions remain unanswerable, including: Where the extra-territorial facilities are to be located; who has responsibility for them; which authorities Denmark will collaborate with; which standards the asylum processing will be exported to; the domestic or geopolitical context of the host country; how the hosts will treat minorities, and many more.” - Danish Desires to Export Asylum Responsibility to Camps Outside Europe: AMIS Seminar Report. Martin Lemberg-Pedersen, Ahlam Chemlali, Zachary Whyte and Nikolas Feith Tan. Centre for Advanced Migration Studies. 19 March 2021. 

“Leaving South Sudan, however, is not enough to guarantee their safety and also poses a range of other challenges to the [Human Rights Defenders (HRDs)]. Even when HRDs cross a border, they can still be – and have been – targeted. Testimonies from South Sudanese refugee HRDs collected in this report paint a picture of persistent cross-border harassment and the targeting of dissenting voices by the South Sudanese government, primarily by the National Security Service (NSS) intelligence agency, which is directly controlled by the Office the President of South Sudan.” - No Refuge: South Sudan’s Targeting of Refugee HRDs Outside the Country. Frontline Defenders. March 2021.

“The Tigray war has created a humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray regional state. Thousands have been killed and about a third of Tigray’s 6 million population (of which more than 150,000 of them have fled to neighbouring Sudan) have been displaced since the brutal conflict started early last November when the Prime Minister ordered a military offensive after the TPLF attacked a federal army base in the southern region. An estimated 3.8 million of Tigray’s roughly six million population now requires emergency food aid, and hundreds of thousands are reportedly facing starvation due to government refusal to let humanitarian organisations access the region during the initial stages of the war.” - The Political and Humanitarian Repercussions of Ethiopia’s Tigray War. Abdinor Hassan Dahir. TRT World Research Centre. 2021.

“This report, which is undertaken pursuant to the Platform on Disaster Displacement (PDD) 2019-2022 Strategy and Workplan, seeks to enhance the evidence base on planned relocation cases undertaken within countries. It provides: (1) a global dataset of 308 cases of planned relocation identified from English language peer-reviewed scholarly articles and grey literature; and (2) an analysis of characteristics across 34 of the identified cases. These two related outputs serve as a foundation for future efforts to augment knowledge and data on planned relocation, and to promote approaches to policy and practice that mitigate risk and protect people from harm.” - Leaving Place, Restoring Home: Enhancing the evidence base on planned relocation cases in the context of hazards, disasters and climate change. Erica Bower and Sanjula Weerasinghe. Platform on Disaster Displacement and the Andrew & Renata Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law at UNSW Sydney. March 2021.

“In 2017, things began taking an even more terrible turn for Uyghurs, Kazakhs and other predominantly Muslim peoples in the region. Since that time, an estimated one million or more people have been arbitrarily detained in ‘transformation-through-education’ or ‘vocational training’ centres in Xinjiang, where they have been subjected to various forms of torture and ill-treatment, including political indoctrination and forced cultural assimilation. This mass detention campaign combined with systematic repression have prevented Uyghur parents from returning to China to take care of their children themselves and made it nearly impossible for their children to leave China to reunite with them abroad.” - Hearts and Lives Broken: The Nightmare of Uyghur Families Separated by Repression. Amnesty International. 2021.

“Over the past seven years, hundreds of Syrian men, women and children who sought safety in Lebanon have been arbitrarily arrested, detained and subjected to torture or other ill-treatment, as well as a wide range of violations of the right to fair trial. Arbitrary detentions of Syrian refugees on suspicion of terrorism-related crimes continue, even though the alleged crimes relate to events that took place more than six years ago.” - “I wished I would die”: Syrian refugees arbitrarily detained on terrorism-related charges and tortured in Lebanon. Amnesty International. 2021.

“[T]he level of violence experienced by women and girls who take part in demonstrations in Mexico and the escalating violence against them by the authorities create a particularly dangerous environment for feminist demonstrators and those protesting against gender-based violence who do not belong to feminist collectives or women’s groups, in which they are at risk of various human rights violations.” - Mexico: The (R)age of Women: Stigma and Violence Against Women who Protest. Amnesty International. 2021.

“In the first five months of FY2021, encounters (apprehensions or expulsions) of unaccompanied alien children (UAC) at the US-Mexico border with the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS’s) US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) are approaching a level close to that for all of FY2020.” - Increasing numbers of unaccompanied alien children at the southwest border. Congressional Research Service. 25 March 2021.

“The United States has long guaranteed the right to seek asylum to individuals who arrive at our southern border and ask for protection. But since 20 March 2020, that fundamental right has been largely suspended. Since that date, both migrants seeking a better life in the United States and those seeking to apply for asylum have been turned away and ‘expelled’ back to Mexico or their home countries. These border expulsions are carried out under a little-known provision of US health law, section 265 of Title 42, which the former Trump administration invoked to achieve its long-desired goal of shutting the border.” A Guide to Title 42 Expulsions at the Border. American Immigration Council. 29 March 2021.

“Protected entry procedures are visa pathways that authorise asylum seekers to safely cross international borders for the purpose of accessing protection under international refugee or human rights law. The ‘primary focus’ of these procedures is to provide a safe and orderly means of crossing international borders.” - Research brief: Protected entry procedures. Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law. March 2021.

[techcrunchappcom]

New Post has been published on https://techcrunchapp.com/stock-futures-fall-as-tech-shares-drop/

Stock futures fall as tech shares drop

TipRanks

Billionaire Ray Dalio Places Bet on 3 “Strong Buy” Stocks

When billionaire financier Ray Dalio makes a move, Wall Street pays attention. Dalio, who got his start working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange trading commodity futures, founded the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, in 1975. With the firm managing about $140 billion in global investments and Dalio’s own net worth coming at $17 billion, he has earned legendary status on Wall Street. Summing up his success, Dalio has three pieces of advice for investors. First, diversify. Keeping a wide range of stocks in the portfolio, from multiple sectors, is the surest way to invest well. Second, don’t think that rising markets will rise forever. This is Dalio’s variation on an old saw that past performance does not guarantee future returns. Dalio will tell you that all strong past returns really guarantee are current high prices. And finally, Dalio tells investors, “Do the opposite of what your instincts are.” Or put another way, don’t follow the herd, as such thinking frequently leads to suboptimal results. Looking to Dalio for investing inspiration, we used TipRanks’ database to find out if three stocks the billionaire recently added to the fund represent compelling plays. According to the platform, the analyst community believes they do, with all of the picks earning “Strong Buy” consensus ratings. Linde PLC (LIN) The first new position is in Linde, the world’s largest industrial gas production company, whether counting by revenues or market share. Linde produces a range of gasses for industrial use, and is the dominant supplier of argon, nitrogen, oxygen, and hydrogen, along with niche gasses like carbon dioxide for the soft drink industry. The company also produces gas storage and transfer equipment, welding equipment, and refrigerants. In short, Linde embodies Dalio’s ‘diversify’ dictum. Linde’s industry leadership and essential products helped the company bounce back from the corona crisis. The company’s revenues slipped in 1H20, but grew in the second half, reaching pre-corona levels in Q3 and exceeding those levels in Q4. In a sign of confidence, the company held its dividend steady through the ‘corona year,’ at 96 cents per common share – and in its recent Q1 declaration, Linde raised the payment to $1.06 per share. This annualizes to $4.24 and gives a yield of 1.7%. The key point here is not the modest yield, but the company’s confidence in the security of its positions, allowing it to keep a steady dividend at a time when many peers are cutting profit sharing. It’s no wonder, then, that an investor like Dalio would take an interest in a company like Linde. The billionaire’s fund snapped up 20,149 shares during the fourth quarter, worth $5.05 million at current prices. Assessing Linde for BMO, analyst John McNulty expresses his confidence in Linde’s current performance. “LIN continues to execute on its growth strategy to drive solid double-digit earnings growth, notably without requiring a further macro improvement. In our view, management’s 11-13% guide for 2021 remains conservative driven by its on coming projects, continued pricing, efficiency gains, and solid buybacks with its strong balance sheet and cash flows. Further, the solid FCF position provides them plenty of dry powder for M&A, de-caps, etc. We believe LIN is poised to continue to surprise investors and outperform the broader group even in a cyclical market. the largest global industrial gas company,” McNulty opined. In line with his bullish comments, McNulty rates LIN as a Buy, and his $320 price target implies an upside of ~28% for the coming year. (To watch McNulty’s track record, click here) Wall Street’s analysts are in broad agreement on the quality of Linde’s stock, as shown by the 15 Buy reviews overbalancing the 3 Holds. This gives the stock its Strong Buy analyst consensus rating. Shares are priced at $250.88, and their $295.73 average price target suggests they have ~18% growth ahead. (See LIN stock analysis on TipRanks) BlackRock (BLK) Next up is the world’s largest asset manager. BlackRock has over $8.67 trillion in assets under management. The company is one of the dominant index funds in the US financial scene, and saw $16.2 billion revenue last year, with a net income of $4.9 billion. BlackRock’s recent Q4 report shows its strength, as far as numbers can. EPS came in at $10.02 per share, a 12% sequential gain and a 20% year-over-year gain. Quarterly revenues of $4.8 billion were up 17% yoy. The full-year top line was up 11% from 2019. BlackRock achieved all of this even as the corona crisis flattened the economy in 1H20. In the first quarter of this year, BlackRock declared its regular quarterly dividend, and raised the payment by 13% to $4.13 per common share. At an annualized payment of $16.52, this gives a yield of 2.3%. The company has kept the dividend reliable for the past 12 years. Not wanting to miss out on a compelling opportunity, Dalio’s fund pulled the trigger on 19,917 shares, giving it a new position in BLK. The value of this new addition? More than $14 million. Covering BLK for Deutsche Bank, analyst Brian Bedell writes, “We view 4Q results as very good with strong long-term net inflows across its products which we expect to continue despite a one-time, $55bn pension fund outflow of low-fee equity index assets expected in 1H21 which mgmt. said would have a minimal impact on base fee revenue. Additionally, total net inflows drove annualized organic base management fee growth of 13%, a quarterly record, on annualized long-term organic AuM growth of 7%. We expect organic base fee growth to exceed organic AuM growth coming into 2021 driven by a flow mix skewed toward higher fee-rate products for now.” To this end, Bedell rates BLK a Buy and his $837 price target suggests the stock has ~18% upside ahead of it. (To watch Bedell’s track record, click here) The analyst consensus tells a very similar story. BLK has received 6 Buy ratings in the last three months, against a single Hold – a clear sign that analysts are impressed with the company’s potential. Shares sell for $710.11, and the average price target of $832.17 gives the stock a 17% upside potential. (See BLK stock analysis on TipRanks) AbbVie, Inc. (ABBV) AbbVie is a major name in the pharma industry. The company is the maker of Humira, an anti-inflammatory used in the treatment of a wide range of chronic illnesses including rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn’s disease, and psoriasis. The company’s other immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, were approved by the FDA in 2019 as treatments for psoriasis and rheumatoid arthritis, respectively, and saw combined sales of $2.3 billion last year. AbbVie expects that these drugs will ‘fill the gap’ in profits when the Humira patents expire in 2023, with up to $15 billion in sales by 2025. Humira is currently the main driver of AbbVie’s immunology portfolio, and provides $19.8 billion of the portfolio’s $22.2 billion in annual revenues, and a significant part of the company’s total sales. For the full year 2020, across all divisions, AbbVie saw $45.8 billion in revenues, with an adjusted diluted EPS of $10.56. In addition to its high-profile anti-inflammatory line, AbbVie also has a ‘stable’ of long-established drugs on the market. As an example, the company owns Depakote, a common anti-seizure medication. AbbVie also maintains an active research pipeline, with scores of drug candidates undergoing studies in the disciplines of immunology, neuroscience, oncology, and virology. For investors, AbbVie has a long-standing commitment to returning profits to shareholders. The company has an 8-year history of keeping a reliable – and growing – dividend. In the most recent declaration, made this month for a payment to go out in May, AbbVie raised the dividend 10% to $1.30 per common share. At $5.20 annualized, this gives a yield of 4.9%. Once again, we are looking at stock that embodies some of Dalio’s advice. Pulling the trigger on ABBV in the fourth quarter, Dalio’s firm purchased 25,294 shares. At current valuation, this is worth $2.66 million. Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges covers ABBV, and is impressed with the way that the company is preparing in advance for the loss of US exclusivity on its best-selling product. “Between ABBV’s ex-Humira portfolio’s growth trajectory and a broad portfolio of catalysts across early-, mid-, and late-stage assets, it is hard to find a biopharma company that is better positioned, even with their looming LOE. ABBV is prepared for 2023, and has growth drivers to drive better than industry average top- and bottom-line growth in the period before (2021-2022) and after (2024-2028) 2023,” Porges opined. Porges gives ABBV an Outperform (i.e. Buy) rating, and sets a $140 price target that indicates room for a 33% one-year upside. (To watch Porges’ track record, click here) Overall, there are 10 reviews on ABBV shares, and 9 of those are to Buy – a margin that makes the analyst consensus rating a Strong Buy. The stock is trading for $105.01 and has an average price target of $122.60. This suggests an upside of ~17% over the next 12 months. (See ABBV stock analysis on TipRanks) To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights. Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

[khalilhumam]

Six Takeaways from the New Growth Forecasts from the IMF and the World Bank

New Post has been published on http://khalilhumam.com/six-takeaways-from-the-new-growth-forecasts-from-the-imf-and-the-world-bank/

Six Takeaways from the New Growth Forecasts from the IMF and the World Bank

*/ This week the IMF released new global economic growth projections in the face of COVID-19, updating their earlier projections from June and from April before that. In recent weeks, the World Bank has also released new projections for various regions. Here are six takeaways that we gleaned from reviewing those and dozens of other projections from other organizations over the course of the year.

1. This year was worse for low- and middle-income countries than predicted. Repeatedly.

In January, the IMF’s projection of global growth for 2020 was 3.3 percent, an increase over 2019’s global growth rate of 2.9 percent. By April, that global estimate had not just slowed but reversed, to -3.0 percent. June estimates were even lower (-4.9 percent), and this week’s estimates—now more than three quarters of the way through the year—landed us at -4.4 percent (Figure 1). Figure 1. IMF global and regional projections for 2020, by month of publication of projection

Source: Authors’ construction based on IMF January 2020, IMF April 2020, IMF June 2020, and IMF October 2020 forecasts.

But while high-income countries are the hardest hit on average, the projected growth in low- and middle-income countries has also dropped significantly. The figure above shows that region after region has downgraded growth projections, not just relative to January but also relative to April. The IMF projections for a few middle-income countries are particularly striking. India, Mexico, and South Africa have been particularly hard-hit. Economic growth in India was 4.2 percent in 2019. The current projection for India in 2020 is -10.3 percent, the largest drop reported by the IMF for any low- or middle-income country. That’s 5.8 percentage points worse than what the IMF was projecting in June. Mexico now has projected growth of -9.0 percent. South Africa is at -8.0 percent. World Bank projections have shown a similar downward trend, as you can see in Figure 2. South Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean have shown particularly negative trajectories. Despite the pandemic arriving late to Latin American countries, it has now become the worst-hit region in the world, at one point accounting for over half of daily coronavirus deaths. Similarly, India is second only to the US in number of cases and the country’s economy severely contracted in the second quarter of the year, much worse than previously expected. Figure 2. World Bank regional projections for 2020, by month of publication of projection

Source: Authors’ construction based on World Bank’s forecast released in January 2020, the regional forecasts released in April 2020, forecast updates released in June 2020, an update in September 2020, and the recently released forecasts (October 2020).

Strikingly, the 2020 projections were much worse for low- and middle-income countries than for rich countries (Table 1). To use the IMF’s groupings, the 2020 projections changed by 5 percent between April and October for advanced economies, but they changed by 230 percent for emerging markets and developing economies. Likewise, low-income developing countries have an updated projection that is 400 percent lower. These percentage numbers are big in part because we’re dealing with changes of small numbers, but the updates are much bigger for low- and middle-income countries. Furthermore, the projections for 2020 are worse now for each of these developing regions, whereas they are slightly better for the advanced economies. Earlier in the year, Sandefur and Subramanian highlighted that the IMF’s predicted economic impact of COVID in low- and middle-income countries was lower than could be explained by “external vulnerabilities to trade disruptions, financial crises, or commodity price shocks” (i.e., the growth estimates were too optimistic). That has unfortunately proven true. Table 1. Difference between IMF October projections from the April projections, by selected country groups

  Projections for 2020 Projections for 2021 April October Percentage point change Percentage change April October Percentage point change Percentage change Advanced economies -6.1 -5.8 0.3 +5% 4.5 3.9 -0.6 -13% Emerging markets and developing economies -1.0 -3.3 -2.3 -230% 6.6 6.0 -0.6 -9% Low-income developing countries 0.4 -1.2 -1.6 -400% 5.6 4.9 -0.7 -13% Emerging and developing Asia 1.0 -1.7 -2.7 -270% 8.5 8.0 -0.5 -6% Latin America and the Caribbean -5.2 -8.1 -2.9 -56% 3.4 3.6 0.2 +6% Middle East and Central Asia -2.8 -4.1 -1.3 -46% 4.0 3.0 -1.0 -25% Sub-Saharan Africa -1.6 -3.0 -1.4 -88% 4.1 3.1 -1.0 -24%

Source: Authors’ construction based on IMF World Economic Outlook April 2020 and October 2020.

2. Africa has not been spared.

The COVID pandemic’s health impact has been less marked on the African continent than elsewhere. That’s not to minimize its effects, with more than 1.2 million cases and over 27,000 deaths to date. But as journalists ponder whether the pandemic has “spared” the continent, the economic storm is clear. The IMF projection for growth across Sub-Saharan Africa in 2020 was 2.9 percent in January, -1.6 percent in April, and this week’s projections put it at almost twice as bad as that, at -3.0 percent. Last week’s numbers from the World Bank project a slightly worse -3.3 percent (consistent with the World Bank’s numbers from April). But these total output numbers don’t factor in population growth. Per capita income across the continent is expected to fall by 6.5 percent. Per capita GDP had already begun to fall in 2016, but this represents a drop-off, as Figure 3 shows. Figure 3. Per Capita GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa over time

Source: Authors’ construction based on World Development Indicators 2020. (Inspired by Figure 1.52 in Africa’s Pulse, October 2020.)

This decline over the course of 2020 is consistent across projections for Africa from various organizations. A range of groups have produced forecasts for either Africa as a whole or for Sub-Saharan Africa, and later forecasts have been consistently lower (Figure 4). Figure 4. Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa projections for 2020, by month of publication of projection

Source: Authors’ construction based on a McKinsey report (April 2020), UN ECA report (April 2020), UN World Economic Situation and Prospects (May 2020), IMF forecasts (January 2020, April 2020, June 2020, and October 2020), and World Bank forecasts (January 2020, April 2020, June 2020, and October 2020).

3. Lockdowns aren’t the only reason for slowing economic activity. People are also avoiding each other.

Using data for 128 countries, the IMF report examines the impact of lockdowns on mobility (as one proxy for economic activity) in both high-income and low- and middle-income countries. It also examines mobility drops from COVID cases beyond the effect of lockdowns. This is likely driven by voluntary social distancing, a manifestation of what Evans and Over refer to as “aversion behavior” (i.e., people avoiding activities where they might catch the virus). They find that both lockdowns and voluntary social distancing reduced mobility. In low-income countries, about two thirds of the effect on mobility was from lockdowns. In higher-income countries, the effect was more balanced across the two. The IMF report cautions against jumping to the conclusion that lockdowns are the problem: “Despite lockdowns having negative short-term economic effects, letting infections grow uncontrolled can also have dire economic consequences. This is because voluntary social distancing in response to rising COVID-19 infections has severe detrimental effects on the economy.” In Latin America, there are a couple of examples suggesting that lockdowns implemented well—before transmission could get out of hand and effectively managed by the government, including providing clear and consistent information to the people—may have help flatten the curve with only reasonable cost to the economy.

4. 2021 looks better, for now.

Projections for 2021 still point to recovery, despite the fact that the spread of the virus has persisted beyond what was assumed in the early 2020 projections (Figure 5). Reports published in April and May assumed containment of the pandemic within the first half of 2020, combined with the pandemic fading on its own and a robust recovery by the end of the year. (This was potentially modeled after China’s recovery in March.) However, as cases piled on and lockdowns continued for many of the affected countries, assumptions have shifted from when containment will take place to when vaccines will be available and deployed. While some of the more recent reports acknowledge that the pandemic may be with us for a while—for example, the IMF October report assumes that social distancing measures will spill over to 2021 and a World Bank regional projection assumes that we will still have a quarter of the current magnitude of the outbreak in 2022 —generally, the reports account for the swift and sizable fiscal policies governments have deployed and still project a recovery in the coming year. That said, the projections for 2021 have updated much less than the projections for 2020 (see Table 1 above), and the further out we get, the more uncertainty there is. Estimates by a team at CGD suggest that a vaccine may not even be approved until well into 2021, without even considering purchase and distribution. Figure 5. IMF regional projections for 2021, by month of publication of projection

Source: Authors’ construction based on IMF January 2020, IMF April 2020, IMF June 2020, and IMF October 2020 forecasts.

5. These growth numbers have real impacts.

It can be easy to get lost in these aggregate output numbers and forget the human lives behind them. The negative GDP growth projections reflect lost income for the majority of the world’s population, especially those employed in industries dependent on open borders and working supply chains (such as the service, tourism and agriculture industries) and the informal sector. Last week, a World Bank team released new poverty projection numbers. They estimate 88 million additional people in extreme poverty (that’s $1.90-a-day poverty) in 2020 as a result of COVID. The vast majority of those are in South Asia (remember those terrible growth numbers for India?) and in Sub-Saharan Africa (where the growth numbers aren’t as bad, but many people are close to the extreme poverty line). Here’s a word from the team: “Using the data and projections available now, it appears that COVID-19 has already been the worst reversal on the path towards the goal of global poverty reduction in at least the last three decades.” While the extreme poverty numbers are lower in Latin America, that region has the worst growth forecast among all developing regions, with projected increases in less extreme poverty, leading some to reference a potential “lost decade” for the region. Those poverty increases translate to increased food insecurity, fewer resources to invest in education and health, and lower tax revenues for governments to provide services.

6. The projections are wrong. (They’re always wrong.) That doesn’t mean they aren’t useful.

Economic forecasts are often wrong, which is unsurprising given the number of variables at play. But they are often reasonably accurate in the short run, which suggests that we may be close to understanding 2020 (even as it draws to a close). We should take projections for 2021 with a few grains of salt. This analysis suggests two challenges for future projections. The first is to improve assumptions about both the spread of the virus and the reactions to it (like vaccine development). But we recognize that this is easier said than done. The virus was raging in April, but its future trajectory remained highly uncertain (as it does now). The second is to seek to improve the quality of the forecasts in low- and middle-income countries. Existing analysis suggests that should be possible. All that said, the assumptions on risks detailed in the forecasting reports, together with the analysis of particular weaknesses of the economies, can prove useful for policymakers needing to make hard choices. Gill writes for Brookings that forecasts during the global financial crisis of 2009 were dire, but that the world bounced back much more quickly than predicted. So perhaps there can be optimism for 2021, with continued, concerted effort to contain the virus and keep economies—including the most vulnerable within them—supported. The order of authors on this blog post was determined by a virtual coin flip. This post benefitted from comments from Amanda Glassman and Justin Sandefur.

[auburnfamilynews]

Conferences can’t be trusted

Let’s talk for a moment.

Yesterday, the SEC announced a plan to move towards a 10-game, conference-only schedule for the football season. Theoretically, teams would play their current 6 division foes, plus 4 other cross-division opponents. While it might make sense that you would move up the next two cross-division foes from 2021 and 2022, it sounds like that isn’t a done deal, with the conference considering trying an algorithm based on strength of schedule.

I was spitballing about the two additional SEC games in 2020. I'm now told that a separate scheduling model - composed by the league office using strength of schedule - will determine the two additional opponents for 2020. https://t.co/hFWO0Caljp

— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) July 30, 2020

Alabama was supposed to draw Tennessee and UGA out of the East this year if it had been played as normal, and they would add Florida and Vanderbilt if the next two season’s opponents were added. Meanwhile Auburn would have UGA, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Missouri. Does it surprise you that the conference doesn’t want to punish poor little Alabama with that East slate?

This is tyranny. TYRANNY!

So here’s what I propose...

FORGET THE SEC.

It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense anyways that teams in the same state can’t play each other due to conference affiliation. In order to better control the spread of COVID-19, let’s close state borders. We can still have football season, but this requires teams only play within their state.

How would that work? Well, lucky for you I have schedules all planned out.

Rules

With the options limited in most states, scheduling rules will need to be laxed.

Teams may play other teams more than once.

Teams may play down to the DII level if necessary.

P5 teams will always host lower level teams, but may travel to other P5 opponents.

Alabama

Six Iron Bowls in one year? You know it. As the only two P5 schools in the state, Auburn and Alabama will have to work together to generate a respectable amount of television revenue. It may seem sacrilege, but desperate times call for desperate measures.

Each school also picks up a game with each of Troy, UAB, and South Alabama, the three G5 schools in the state. To round out the schedule, Auburn and Alabama will need to grab three local FCS teams each, meaning Jacksonville State is coming back to Auburn.

Florida

The true dream schedule for the Gators - they never have to leave the state.

Florida picks up a home-and-home against both Miami and FSU, meaning the Big 3 will get to have their own little round robin for the state title. There’s four more G5 schools in the state (FAU, FIU, UCF, USF), plus a host of smaller FCS and DII programs. I can’t imagine DII West Florida out of Pensacola will fair too well, but nevertheless, that’s 2020 for you.

Georgia

Georgia is in a similar boat as the state of Alabama, with two P5 schools and a litany of smaller programs. UGA will face the Yellow Jackets six times in this schedule, which will probably just be 24 quarters of brutality on behalf of the Bulldogs. Finally, a championship UGA can be proud of!

UGA also pulls in the two G5’s in the state, Georgia Southern and Georgia State, for two games a-piece, as well as the biggest school in the state from the FCS ranks.

Kentucky

Another state with two P5 programs, so I think you get the gist of how this schedule works.

With only four combined G5/FCS programs in the state, Kentucky does have to dip down to play Kentucky State late in the season, owner of these magnificent domes.

Rodney Pitts

Louisiana

Despite being the only P5 in the whole state, something tells me LSU fans and Louisiana residents would be just fine with this slate. The defending national champs get to bring in each of its little brothers from across the state twice, and perhaps mask the fact that they lost an obscene amount of talent off last year’s team by just throwing to Ja’Marr Chase over and over.

The only shame here is that we would miss some truly epic tailgating with all of these matchups.

Mississippi

Who are we kidding, given the chance, these schools are going to want to go 12 rounds with each other. I, for one, am not going to deny the world the chance at three months of Egg Bowl Saturdays.

As a note, we might need to keep the borders of Mississippi closed even after COVID if we do this. Sorry, Southern Miss.

Ozark

Unfortunately, the pandemic may have some geopolitical consequences, and college football is foreve intertwined with state politics. In this timeline, due to the absolute void of other programs in the backwater of the SEC, Arkansas and Missouri have merged to form a new state called “Ozark”.

Arkansas and Missouri become instate rivals, playing every other weekend this fall. Only one G5 team joins the fray here, the Arkansas State Red Wolves, but as is tradition, the Razorbacks administration continues to refuse to put them on the schedule. The rest of the schedule is filled out with FCS and DII opponents, including Gus Malzahn’s alma mater Henderson State for the Arkansas.

South Carolina

South Carolina continues to insist they aren’t the little brother, and Clemson continues to sit on them, slapping the Gamecocks with their own hands while laughing “Quit hitting yourself! Quit hitting yourself!”.

Tennessee

You know the drill. Two in-state rivals, three sets of home-and-homes + G5/FCS games. There are six FCS teams in Tennessee, so to make everything even, I had Vandy and the Vols split the FCS teams equally, and schedule three games between MTSU and Memphis (both G5).

And last but not least...

Texas

What? You thought a measly little pandemic was going to get Texas and Texas A&M to kiss and make up?

from College and Magnolia - All Posts https://www.collegeandmagnolia.com/2020/7/31/21349457/a-better-scheduling-idea-auburn-sec-alabama-georgia-florida-texas-louisiana-mississippi-tennessee

[rickhorrow]

10 TO WATCH : MAYOR’S EDITION 52719

RICK HORROW’S TOP 10 SPORTS/BIZ/TECH/PHILANTHROPY ISSUES FOR THE WEEK OF MAY 27, 2019 : MAYOR’S EDITION 

with Jacob Aere

1. The Big Ten conference recorded nearly $759 million in revenue for the 2018 financial year. This figure represents a year-on-year revenue increase of 48% for the Big Ten and exceeds any comparable annual figure amongst its NCAA rivals. A major factor is this boosted revenue is Big Ten’s new television rights deals which resulted in payments of around $54 million to the 12 longest-standing schools of the conference’s 14 teams. Maryland and Rutgers received smaller revenue share amounts but this was topped up with loans from Big Ten against future revenue shares. Compared to other NCAA athletic conferences, the Big Ten is way ahead in terms of revenue. The SEC reported revenues of around $660 million for 2018, with an average of $43.7 million afforded to each of its 13 member schools. The Big 12’s revenues didn’t even reach half the value that the Big Ten generated, with the conference securing $374 million for 2018. TV rights remain king, as shown by the Big 10 data and the recent announcement that Conference USA has made a 4-year deal with the NFL Network for a 10-game package of C-USA football games.

2. Indy 500 has a new broadcast partner: NBC. Viewership for the crown jewel of American racing events has been on a steady decline since 2015, but all of that may change with a new partnership. All IndyCar broadcasts will now be shown on NBC networks and will cover the racing series with improved marketing and a bigger approach to race-day coverage. According to Indianapolis Business Journal, the network has run dozens of IndyCar ads since March — many for the Indy 500 – and TV ratings have been up. IndyCar ads have been running during other major sporting events such as the Kentucky derby and the NHL Playoffs with a new approach to grab some more casual viewers. Thank to the new partnership, viewership is up 21% for the first four races. Under NBC’s contract, eight IndyCar races will be on broadcast TV this season, up from five last year on ABC. Indy has started to also market to a younger demographic as the sport owns one of the oldest audiences across all major us-sports; to date, its has been paying dividends.

3. The 2019 NBA playoffs have been lacking in action and ratings. According to The Atlantic, this year’s playoffs started on April 13 and won’t end until sometime in June making it roughly as long as Major League Baseball and the National Football League's playoffs, COMBINED. Through the first two weeks of the 2019 postseason, the rating numbers were down by 18 percent. One reason for the decline is the absence of now Laker, Lebron James, who missed the playoffs for the first time in more than a decade. However, the boost of second round ratings, which were the highest TV numbers since 2012, indicate that fans are still compelled to tune in to more competitive matchups. Another issue with extended playoffs is the stress and fatigue it puts on the players: the Golden State Warriors won their last series against the Portland Trail Blazers without Kevin Durant due to injury. Although adding extra games may draw in more money for the league, the long term effects of losing fans to “boring” playoffs may seriously hurt. The NBA may need to start looking into reverting to the previous 5 game format for first round basketball playoffs to help quell the extensive playoffs or potentially give a bye-round to the top ranked teams in each division.

4. The Blues win the West to create a rematch 49 years in the making for the NHL. The St. Louis Blues are marching into the Stanley Cup Final for the first time in decades and have revived expectations for the team in the midwest. The Blues were one of the bottom teams in the NHL as of January 3 and now they are in the Stanley Cup Finals. According to The Star, the turnaround came after Craig Berube replaced Mike Yeo as coach in November and Binnington took over as the starting goaltender in January. St. Louis has went 0-12 in its three previous Stanley Cup appearances. The last time these two teams met in the Stanley Cup, the Blues dropped the series 0-4 with an enshired goal from a flying Bobby Orr that is still one of the greatest hockey pictures of all time. The Bruins are the likely favorite to win the cup after having come in second overall in the regular season. The St. Louis Blues are the oldest active team to never have a Stanley Cup win and in a year where the improbable has happened for a last place team entering 2019, a win against the Bruins could seal one of the greatest turnarounds of all time.

5. NBA Playoffs help to display big tech and provide a glimpse into the future of sports in Seattle. Seattle is getting an NHL franchise and a high-tech arena in 2021. According to GeekWire, tech executives from companies based in the Pacific Northwest have been attending private VIP events for potential season ticket holders. Meanwhile, during Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals at Oracle Arena, Google displayed its voice assistant to help “turn down the lights,” play music, and provide stats for the Golden State Warriors. After the game, all 19,596 fans walked away with a free Google Home Mini device. At $1 million, it was hailed as “the largest and most valuable giveaway of a Google product at a live sporting event in history.” Silicon Valley plays a big role in the Warriors’ success as players like Kevin Durant, Steph Curry and Jonas Jerebko all noted the region’s forward thinking as a partial reason they chose to play with the team; they all have investments in a range of tech ventures. Looking at the success of the Warriors, the new NHL team in Seattle would provide an opportunity for the region’s tech companies, like Amazon and Microsoft, to further plunge into sports.

6. The NFL draft is headed to Cleveland in 2021 and Kansas City in 2023. In conjunction with the relocation of the Oakland Raiders and opening of their new stadium, the 2020 draft was awarded to Las Vega. Now, the Browns will be celebrating their 75th anniversary with the draft events taking place around FirstEnergy Stadium in 2021. According to ESPN, the Kansas City Chiefs plan to host the draft near Union Station and the National World War I Museum and Memorial for their draft in 2023. Since last holding the draft in the traditional New York location in 2014, the NFL has taken the event on the road to five different cities. The league still has not moved on bids for the 2022 draft, saying about 20 cities are interested in hosting that year. This year’s draft in Nashville, Tennessee had more than 600,000 people attend over the three days which marks a dramatic increase from 250,000 in Arlington the year prior.

7. NASCAR acquires ISC for $2B with a dozen more tracks. NASCAR announced the $2 billion purchase of International Speedway Corp. which will give it control of key racetracks and set itself up for sweeping changes that could save America’s popular racing series which has been in decline for several years. This deal should close by year’s end. ISC is one of two major facilities companies that host NASCAR races, along with Speedway Motorsports Inc. According to AP News, NASCAR gaining control of a dozen tracks would seemingly make it easier for the racing league to alter its schedule, including the possibility of hosting fewer events in order to maximize its profit. The parent company of Speedway Motorsports made an offer last month to acquire all its outstanding common stock, which would privatize SMI and make it better positioned for an anticipated NASCAR overhaul. Many big sponsors have left NASCAR in recent years — Cup Series title sponsor Monster Energy is in the final year of its deal — and television ratings hit all-time lows at 26 events last season. Because NASCAR is a private company it won't have to publicly report attendance revenue and other financials allowing the company more leeway in their attempt to rebuild the iconic racing series.

8. OTT platform FuboTV and FanDuel form a sports wagering partnership in New Jersey. According to Deadline, the deal makes FanDuel the exclusive sportsbook, online casino, exclusive advertiser, and horse racing and daily fantasy sports partner of the live TV streaming service. It will also expand FuboTV’s sports offering for consumers when FanDuel’s betting data is integrated on the Fubo platform. Initially, odds and other gambling information will only be added to the mix in New Jersey, though general sports data will be integrated more broadly afterward. Additionally the TVG and TVG2 horse racing networks affiliated with FanDuel will be available to Fubo subscribers nationwide, joining the 90-plus channels in the $55-a-month base package. TVG2 will be on the Sports Plus tier, which brings more than 20 additional channels for an extra $9 a month. This is huge as it is the first real push for a OTT sports platform to incorporate sports wagering into its properties and could open the floodgates for others to follow suit.

9. CC Sabathia’s charity softball game brings together stars in New York. Aaron Judge, Michael Strahan and other notables like Didi Gregorius, Tino Martinez, Action Bronson, Tiki Barber, Johnny Damon, and Aroldis Chapman joined in for CC Sabathia’s second annual charity softball game hosted in the Bronx. According to Feeling the Vibe, team Michael Strahan took on Team CC Sabathia and came out victors by a score of 8-2 with all proceeds being sent to the PitCChIn Foundation led by CC and his wife Amber and the New York Yankees Foundation. The Sabathia’s charity runs multiple initiatives that span baseball clinics, delivering backpacks to kids in need and renovating baseball fields. On the other hand, the Yankees Foundation has done everything from helping a teacher in need of supplies, to refurbishing a neighborhood sports facility, giving $500,000 for Hurricane Sandy relief, or providing assistance in Haiti and Japan. CC Sabathia is a veteran presence on a now young and injured Yankees roster and his leadership is felt both during and outside of game time.

10. Nike is launching an official guide to sustainability for brands. Nike recently partnered with Central Saint Martins to create a manual for designers that lays out the principles for materials that can be indefinitely recycled called circular design. The company has also has researched case studies from companies that have done groundbreaking work on these fronts including Patagonia, Outerknown, For Days, and Eileen Fisher. According to Fast Company, Nike’s guide is deliberately formatted as a kind of textbook. It lays out 10 principles that take you through the life of a product, including elements like picking low-impact materials, designing with recyclability in mind, minimizing waste in manufacturing, prolonging the lifetime of a product through repair and durable construction, and using more thoughtful packaging. Nike is dropping this guide during the Copenhagen Fashion Summit, an annual gathering organized by the sustainability-minded Global Fashion Agenda. Although none of these steps are revolutionary to eco-friendly practices on their own, this outlines a plan for fit a comprehensive eco-friendly system which could potentially change the norm of the fashion and sports industries.

[unixcommerce]

Small Business Saturday Quiz: Test Your Knowledge

Small Business Saturday is a pretty big deal in the United States.  And savvy small business people know that and leverage it. But how much do you know about this event?  Do you know its history, how it got started and why it struck a chord with the public? Get prepared for Small Business Saturday by testing your knowledge!

Small Business Saturday Quiz

Results

–

Congratulations!  You know a lot about Small Business Saturday – you passed.

#1 What year did Small Business Saturday start?

1962

1988

1997

2010

2017

The first Small Business Saturday was in November of 2010.

It started at a time when the United States was still recovering from the 2008 Wall Street financial crisis and economic recession that followed. The goal was to give local small businesses such as restaurants and retailers a boost by helping them sell more. Read more.

#2 When does Small Business Saturday take place?

During National Small Business Week, in May.

The first Saturday of each month.

It varies – whenever the President decrees it

The Saturday after Thanksgiving in the United States.

Small Business Saturday occurs once a year.  It’s always on the Saturday following Thanksgiving in the United States.  Dates for Small Business Saturday over the next 4 years will be:

November 30, 2019

November 28, 2020

November 27, 2021

November 26, 2022

Combined with Black Friday and Cyber Monday, the day is part of the reason that the entire week following Thanksgiving has become a non-stop, shopping extravaganza for consumers.

In fact, the rallying cry of “shop small” has turned it into a year-round movement. You can see consumers expressing their support for small businesses all year, not just during the Christmas holiday season.

#3 What percent of consumers say Small Business Saturday makes them want to shop at small businesses all year long?

51%

67%

80%

96%

A stunning 96% of people who shop on Small Business Saturday say it makes them want to shop at small businesses year round!  That’s according to a survey by American Express.

That lasting impact is what makes the #shopsmall movement special.  Unlike national taco day or Valentine’s Day, people feel like they are supporting a worthy cause bigger than shopping when they support Small Business Saturday.  Long after the day has passed they feel inspired to support small businesses.

#4 How much do consumers spend on Small Business Saturday at small establishments?

$1 billion

$10 billion

$17.8 billion

$30 billion

In 2018, consumers spent $17.8 billion at small retailers and restaurants on Small Business Saturday. For many small businesses, much of their revenue and profit comes during the last two months of each year.  And Small Business Saturday has helped.

According to the American Express website, this number is an estimate. It reflects “the average spend as reported by consumers in surveys commissioned by American Express reporting spend habits on Small Business Saturday of consumers who were aware of the day. It does not reflect actual receipts or sales.”  Read more.

#5 Small Business Saturday was founded by:

American Express Corporation

The Small Business Administration

President Barack Obama

Amazon.com

President George W. Bush

Small Business Saturday was conceived by American Express as a rallying cry around small businesses. A decade later, American Express continues to lend its support.

Small Business Saturday is not a government program. For instance, it is not part of the SBA and does not rely on Federal taxpayer funding.

Still, Small Business Saturday is one of the few things that gets almost universal support:

The U.S. Senate unanimously passed a resolution supporting it in 2011.

The President typically gives it out a shout out.

The Small Business Administration encourages participation.

State and local governments participate, galvanizing community support.

Community organizations and chambers of commerce participate.

Business organizations like SCORE and Small Business Development Centers encourage it.

Virtually all large corporations support it in some way.

Small business owners and consumers alike enthusiastically embrace the day.

#6 Which person drove implementation of the first Small Business Saturday?

First Lady Michelle Obama

Jeff Bezos

Adam Smith

Sheryl Sandberg

Susan Sobbott

If any one person could be identified as the main driver behind Small Business Saturday, it’s Susan Sobbott. At the time she was the President of American Express OPEN.  It was her vision, leadership and energy that got it off the ground and made it a rousing success from the first year.

The daughter of a small business owner herself, she recognized what small business owners needed. “More than anything else, they need more customers,” she said in an interview at the time.

She went on to add, “Small Business Saturday can be the first of many days when businesses and consumers consciously make the decision to consider shopping small. Even better is if they tell their friends, family, and colleagues about the initiative so that they, too, can think about shopping at small businesses.”   Read: Small Business Saturday, An Inside Look

#7 What is the tagline of Small Business Saturday?

Small business, big value

When you buy from a small business, you are helping a little girl get ballet lessons

Support a small business, save a job

Shop small

Every time you shop at a small business, an angel gets its wings

“Shop small” or its equivalent hashtag of #shopsmall has been used almost since the beginning.

Since 2011 it has become a slogan and insignia for the movement. In fact, the slogan has become so popular that some people use it as a rallying cry to support small businesses year round.  In fact, it’s called the Shop Small Movement.

“Shop small” is a registered service mark of American Express.

#8 Which social media giant was the first to partner with Small Business Saturday?

MySpace

Facebook

Instagram

Twitter

Pinterest

Facebook was the first social media company to support Small Business Saturday in a highly visible way.

In fact, Facebook’s early support helped drive popularity among consumers. To this day Small Business Saturday has a vibrant and thriving Facebook page.

Other social platforms show support for Small Business Saturday, but Facebook is the epicenter.

#9 What technique below is NOT a good way to promote your business for Small Business Saturday?

Sending out a marketing email announcing free cider and donuts to thank customers for their support.

Announcing on your Facebook Page that you have a special discount for followers that day.

Putting a temporary sign outside your shop or a badge on your website, highlighting your support of the event.

Threatening customers that you will go out of business if they don’t shop with you on Small Business Saturday.

Threatening to go out of business is never a good marketing technique.

A better approach is to be positive. Take a few moments to highlight a special offer. Or make shopping a fun and special experience that day. Or simply thank customers for their support.

In other words, focus on the customer and the benefits he or she will get. Make the customer feel good about supporting your business.

  #10 Is there a badge to show support for Small Business Saturday?

Yes

No

Yes. Small business owners, consumers and community organizations alike display materials with the Shop Small badge on them.

The Shop Small Studio on the official website has a lot of marketing materials, including marketing tips, badges, flyers, videos, email headers and other collateral. You can customize everything with your business name on it — and it’s all free.

The image at the top of this quiz was generated using the Shop Small Studio.  And took us less than 5 minutes.  It’s that’s easy.

finish

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This article, “Small Business Saturday Quiz: Test Your Knowledge” was first published on Small Business Trends

https://smallbiztrends.com/

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