terrycooke

[terrycooke]

Goodbye & Hello

Hello TEA Collaborative Subscribers, It has been some time. I remain deeply appreciative for your interest in the TEA Collaborative over past years. You will have noticed that activity on the TEA Collaborative trailed off to full silence during the pandemic but you were never given an explanation for this trailing-off or told what to expect. I am writing to address that now. The TEA…

[terrycooke]

Airborne Risks Rise Over the Taiwan Strait

Current Event: Chinese jet carried out ‘aggressive’ maneuver near U.S. military plane in international waters yesterday  (Reuters report; CNN report; Al-Jazeera report) Insight: Following Xi Jinping’s era-defining dictum to “Dare to Fight” (敢于斗争) on March 9th of this year, the Peoples Liberation Army has been recently putting those words into practice, as seen with yesterday’s…

[terrycooke]

Airborne Risks Rise Over the Taiwan Strait

Current Event: Chinese jet carried out ‘aggressive’ maneuver near U.S. military plane in international waters yesterday  (Reuters report; CNN report; Al-Jazeera report) Insight: Following Xi Jinping’s era-defining dictum to “Dare to Fight” (敢于斗争) on March 9th of this year, the Peoples Liberation Army has been recently putting those words into practice, as seen with yesterday’s…

[terrycooke]

China: Mediator of the "Russia-Ukraine Crisis"?

China’s Ukraine crisis mediator Li Hui wrapped up his two-day visit to Kyiv yesterday. He is now headed to Poland, France, Germany and Russia. What should we expect? With Poland, he will likely make the case that Poland’s serving as the primary conduit for NATO arms into Ukraine hurts prospects for peace and that Poland should emulate China’s restraint in not supplying arms. In France, Li will…

[terrycooke]

My Interview in Forbes: Taiwan President Tsai & Chips War

My March 30th post (Taiwan’s Historic Split Screen) was written as President Tsai Ing-wen arrived in New York at the start of her diplomatic visit to Central America. That piece promised a follow-up on the occasion of her return transit to Los Angeles — and meeting with Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy — en route back to Taiwan. The Tsai-McCarthy meeting took place 6 days ago on April 5th but…

[terrycooke]

Taiwan's Historic Split-Screen

A few hours ago, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen arrived at her hotel in New York where she is transiting en route to a 10-day visit to treaty allies Guatemala and Belize followed by a return transit stop in Los Angeles on her way home. Three days ago, former Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou arrived in Shanghai to start an 11-day, multi-city visit focused on educational exchange and paying his…

[terrycooke]

Xi's Long Game Comes Into Focus

Xi Jinping departed Moscow following his three-day state visit eight days ago. In broad brush, the trip removed some uncertainties about the basic direction of Xi’s positioning on the global stage. No, this was not a peace-broker’s mission. Xi clearly prioritized propping up a faltering “friend without limits” over any serious — or even half-hearted — effort to play the honest broker. Washington…

[terrycooke]

Which of Three Doors for Putin & Xi?

Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow yesterday for the start of a three-day state visit, Xi’s first trip overseas since securing his unprecedented third-five year term as head of the party and president of the country. Yesterday’s meeting was heavy with symbolism — the two leaders exchanged greetings and expression of friendship seated together in intimate proximity in front of a fireplace — but devoid…

[terrycooke]

Tick tock for Tiktok? Eight Essential Facts to Know

As reported in the Wall Street Journal today and widely in other publications, the Biden administration is now demanding that, due to security concerns, the owner of TikTok, Beijing-headquartered Bytedance, either sell their stakes in the video-sharing app or face a U.S. ban. The question of sanctions or a ban against Bytedance have been rumbling in the background since August 2020, when Trump…

[terrycooke]

Oracle of the Third Phase of US-PRC Relations

Less than twenty-four hours ago, Xi Jinping was officially confirmed for his third term as President of the People’s Republic of China at the so-called Two Sessions meetings in Beijing. This ribbon-tying exercise completes a package of norm-shattering consolidation of power put in place last fall at the 22nd National People’s Congress. The NPC shuffles and updates the power structure within the…

[terrycooke]

Xi Jinping, By Thy Friends We Shall Know Thee

Yesterday President Aleksandr Lukashenko, President of Belarus, arrived in Beijing for a three-day state visit. Lukashenko is, of course, the world leader who allowed Putin to amass Russian troops on Belarus’ border with Ukraine during the lead-up to the Russian invasion on February 24th of last year. Coming on the heels of the release of the PRC Position on the Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis…

[terrycooke]

Know Thee By Thy Friends

Yesterday President Aleksandr Lukashenko, President of Belarus, arrived in Beijing for a three-day state visit. Lukashenko is, of course, the world leader who allowed Putin to amass Russian troops on Belarus’ border with Ukraine on the in the lead-up to the Russian invasion on February 24th of last year. Coming on the heels of the release of the PRC Position on the Settlement of the Ukraine…

[terrycooke]

PRC Position on Settlement of Ukraine Crisis -- Q&A

In my network, there’s a lot of interest in — and considerable disagreement over — the meaningfulness of the PRC statement of principles toward resolving the Ukraine crisis released on Friday. I gave my on-the-spot personal view in the post 1% Words, 99% Work on the day of the statement’s release but, since then, I have been fielding comments and questions from a number of friends and…

[terrycooke]

1% Words, 99% Work

On the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China has released its 12-point peace proposal. The official English-language version is here. Below is a simplified graphic covering the 12 points. Here’s my 4-point response: There’s no reason to go beyond the first point. If that were to be upheld, there would be no ‘special military operation’ problem to solve. China is not a…

[terrycooke]

Yikes!

I received an email yesterday from a college classmate who is bright, informed and engaged with world events. She is not a China specialist but over the last five years we have had an exchange of views about China, both privately and in a public forum. Her message from yesterday read,”Terry: Yikes. Do you have access to Le Monde? I can’t read the rest of the article, but the first half is…

[terrycooke]

What Goes Around, Comes Around - Wuhan Redux?

What Goes Around, Comes Around – Wuhan Redux?

The SARS-COV-19 outbreak was first detected almost exactly three years ago in Wuhan. In large part because of PRC Government obfuscation and delay, the world was caught off-balance in ensuing months. We all know the toll in human lives and suffering that has followed. For democratic-leaning, economically-advanced societies, the road back to a semblance of “normalcy” has been long and difficult…

[terrycooke]

What Goes Around, Comes Around - Wuhan Redux?

What Goes Around, Comes Around – Wuhan Redux?

The SARS-COV-19 outbreak was first detected almost exactly three years ago in Wuhan. In large part because of PRC Government obfuscation and delay, the world was caught off-balance in ensuing months. We all know the toll in human lives and suffering that has followed. For democratic-leaning, economically-advanced societies, the road back to a semblance of “normalcy” has been long and difficult…