thetravelling1 - Tumblr blog

[thetravelling1]

Fifteen Christmases!

[thetravelling1]

T+92: Vehicular Update

So I'm 3 days into my new job, and will post a separate update when I have enough to say about it. What I do have enough to say about is my car.

It's not quite right, you see. The check engine light that comes on every few hundred km is because there's an issue with the transmission...one that could cost thousands to fix.

Good news is that it basically works. I've done 4k+ in it and never doubted its ability to get me where I'm going. The fault can be worked around by slipping it into neutral whenever I'm about to stop, and other than that, it drives well.

Looking back, the previous owner must have bought it in 2003 and kept driving it without servicing/fixing anything until the faults became regular enough that they decided to sell it rather than fix it.

So what I'll do is keep it ticking over. It's currently receiving its Warrant of Fitness (MOT) and is registered until next August. As long as it drives me places, I'll go places. When it breaks, I'll make decisions based on how expensive it'll be to get back on the road.

And I'll definitely start ignoring the check engine light!

And overall, I got a bargain. Nothing lasts forever, I'm just renting everything I "own" from the universe. If it lasts a year, it will have opened some really useful doors for me. I'll do a reckoning of the total cost once I see how far it gets me, and the breakdown. If fuel costs exceed the other costs, then that'll be a positive view of an arbitrary line.

I do need a vehicle to get to work, but now I'm working for a company that sells bikes and has showers at work, cycling to work might be a good daily routine. Or I could get a motorbike. Or an electric vehicle.

I don't want to make the decision in the very near future, but I'm excited to l look into options!

[thetravelling1]

T+89: Day One

So, it finally happened. This morning, for the first time in too long, I went to work. And it was good! Every IT job has the first day approximately the same - meet people, turn on your PC, start setting up profiles. Everybody else has lots on so you're balancing barking up the wrong tree against incessant questioning. I think I weathered the balance ok... In return, they were lovely and nice to me, gave me something concrete to work on that uses existing skills and also forces me a little out of my comfort zone. Perfect!

[thetravelling1]

T+80: SEWF

This morning I attended a briefing to be a volunteer at the Social Enterprise World Forum. This is the tenth annual event, and located in Christchurch. We'll have a 1,600 strong delegation, at venues around the city.

One of the big positives of volunteering (on Tuesday and Wednesday) and attending (on Thursday and Friday) will be interacting with so many like-minded people. From the briefing and subsequent walking tour of the venues, I had a good number of chats with friendly, engaged people who care deeply about social enterprise, the future, politics, philosophy and economics.

After the walking tour, I joined Bree (from Canada) and Ben (from NZ) for lunch and discussions ranging from Ju Jitsu and Judo to Living standards in rural Canada, best local places for each of our hobbies to pros and cons of Universal Basic Income. It turns out that Christchurch has a monthly secular assembly where scientific topics are debated. Sadly I'll miss the next one tomorrow as I'm playing Magic (Dinosaurs vs Pirates, how could I refuse?)

Tonight, I'm meeting some friends to go see One Waka - my first gig over here. Apparently they are a local hip hop/reggae band, so the quantity and quality of the dancing might be in question. I'm not averse to having a few drinks, but I won't end up in a situation like last week's trainwreck!

[thetravelling1]

T+77: Adrenaline Forest This is a tree-top obstacle course, similar in idea to Go Ape but ramped up in intensity. They have 8 "pathways", each starting with a ladder up a tree and ending with a zip line (they call them flying foxes here!). Each pathway is higher and harder than the one before. Just as I arrived, a school group was given the spiel, so I hung back until the instructor was free. Turns out there are only 3 others starting with me, so nice and quiet. The kids started on level 1 so by jumping straight to level 2, we got in ahead of them. It's very well laid out, all intertwined over the same area but different courses at different heights. You couldn't tell at a glance where to go next, you had to be there and follow the course (not that it was possible to get lost!) After completing courses 2, 3b, 4, 3a and 5a, I had to make a decision. A good few of the obstacles absolutely shred my upper body strength, and my ability to grip was rapidly dissolving. Do I attempt course 6? Of course I did. Did I regret it? Almost immediately. One of the obstacles involved somehow swinging back and smashing my shins against the platform. Thankfully it didn't bleed through, allowing me to continue on blissful ignorance. The very next obstacle was called the ufo - 8" circular platforms suspended by ropes. You had to hold the rope you were on in one hand, and the next rope on your other. After it slowed its swing to an acceptable degree, you had to take your weight on your arms and lift both feet, use them to catch the next rope and slide your feet down to put weight on both sides of the platform at the same time. 8 times in a row, ascending each time, also adjusting your safety line as you're going. This obstacle slaughtered me. Dangling lump in my harness gasping for breath gave me a few minutes to re-evaluate my life choices, and examine my options. One of the useful things about dangling 15m in the air is that you don't have many options other than prevail. Somehow I fought to the next platform, and saw the next obstacle was cargo nets. Reader, I skipped that one. At least, the first half of it. Zip lining on the safety cable doesn't get you uphill, sadly, so even my efforts to cheat were thwarted by the course! The good news was that there weren't many more obstacles, and I was comfortable getting through them however I physically could. It wasn't pretty, but it was competed. As I came down, the other single guy was hanging up his harness. "Aren't you tired?" He asked... "Of course", I cheerfully retorted. And started climbing the ladder to my final run for that day - 5b aka nothing but ladders and ziplines. This was set up as my treat, and no amount of physical inability was going to stand in my way of ziplines! Oh god, I'm going to feel it in the morning....

[thetravelling1]

T+73: The Date.

Ok, this story is likely to be a bit of a long one, so bear with me please!

Part 1: Context

I flew out to NZ 73 days ago, with a bag holding all my possessions and an incredibly vague plan to find a job and get a visa. I didn’t know anybody here, and one part of my journey would be build a new social circle from scratch. I now have a job and a visa, and so was in the mood to celebrate.

Building a complete social circle once you get a foot in the door is relatively easy; the trick is meeting people at first. There are two approaches I’ve taken so far - Meetups and Online Dating sites. In my experience, Meetups have been much more amiable - you are there to do a specified activity, and even if you don’t click with anybody, you still get to do that thing.

In terms of online dating, I’ve used OKCupid, Tinder and Bumble. OKC is the most “thorough”, having a series of essay based questions to read about each other, and a lot of multiple choice questions that the system uses to rate how well you’re likely to match. The problem is that there aren’t many people in Christchurch on OKCupid.

Tinder has a reputation of being a “hookup” app, but in my experience that hasn’t been the case. You have a few photos and a small amount of text to give a sliver of insight into yourself - and only people who like each other’s profiles can start contacting each other. This results in less time wasted on interactions that are clearly not going to work.

Part 2: Prelude

I swiped right on Kylie’s profile for a combination of shallow and personality based reasons. She enjoys pizza, wine and board games. She likes to go walking. While she doesn’t live in Christchurch, it’s an easily travelled distance (half an hour). She has 2 kids, but the father has custody on the weekends, and she lives near supportive family. We had a nice chat and I suggested meeting up that coming weekend, on Saturday. She was in Christchurch anyway having a “Girls Day” with friends so it was perfect to meet at a pub walking distance from mine.

I won’t misrepresent things and imply that there weren’t warning signs. My housemate queried “what is she, in high school” when Kylie commented about how excited her friends were that we were meeting up - or that her friends were on the crazy side. I charitably put this down to hyperbole and someone being happy about finding someone on Tinder who’s vaguely on their wavelength, but you can take it as foreshadowing. 

On the day of the date, I met up with a friend in the morning at a farmer’s market, and we went for a lovely walk up to the Port Hills over Lyttleton. Then we had lunch, and I accidentally left my NZ sim phone in the cafe. I went home for a nap and shower, put on a fresh pair of jeans and an actual shirt before heading to the pub (5:30)

Part 3: The conventional part of the date.

I got there first, and ordered myself a diet cola, then sat outside in the sun trying to get my non-sim phone to connect to Wi-fi so I could message her - when she turned up, right on time! She grabbed a glass of red and we sat outside, chatting about all sorts of stuff. She’s on good terms with her ex, her kids are handling separated parents well. She had dated another guy after separating from her husband, but I was her first date after splitting up with him.

I wouldn’t say there was romantic chemistry there per se, but we were having an amiable enough conversation and it was a nice evening and a good setting. Kylie refused a second drink as she was driving home (note: it feels like the default behaviour here is to have 1 drink if you’re driving. It’s a little unnerving but when in Rome..)...But it was looking like maybe having dinner together and/or watching a movie could be on the cards.

Part 4: A jarring sense of something unusual.

A bartender came over with a shooter, placing it on the table in front of her. “From an admirer”. This appeared to be as much of a shock to her as it was to me. We looked around and there were no hints of guys trying to muscle in. Still, this is not what you expect. The shooter appeared to be kahlua and baileys, and Kylie enjoyed it. We kept chatting, and more of the story came out.

Her “girls day” involved two of her friends, Charlotte and Pixie. Pixie had recently broken up with her bloke, and was feeling down about it. So down, in fact that she was under strict orders not to drink. Charlotte had a bloke, but doesn’t often get a chance to go out and relax, so she took the opportunity to take Pixie out to a pub. Specifically, the pub Kylie was going to.

They assured Kylie that they were just looking to hang out with some guys, and wouldn’t interfere with the date. The shooter that the bartender provided was from Charlotte, the first sign that this assurance wasn’t necessarily a firm boundary. The good news was that as Pixie wasn’t drinking, Kylie would be able to get a lift back to Pixie’s to crash - and therefore, could drink more.

I can’t remember exactly whether this fact was raised before or after the Tequila was delivered “from an admirer”. But hey, when in Rome, roll with the surprises - right?

Part 5: Genre Shift

Now we could go back to drinking normally, I went back to the bar to refill us both. Spiced Rum and Diet Coke for me, Glass of Red for her. Regardless of anything else that happened on top, this was the baseline. While I was at the bar, Charlotte turned up. We chatted, I thanked her for the shots and pointed out I was relieved it wasn’t an interloper.

Charlotte announced we’d be joining herself, Pixie and two newfound friends for Truth or Dare. Wait, what? Apparently that’s what they’d been up to since arriving. It’d been quiet enough so far that I hadn’t noticed (bear in mind that this is probably 7pm on a Saturday night, and my back had been to them). The delivered shots had been part of the dares.

The thought amused me, but I knew that wouldn’t be on the cards; we were still talking about going for food (having not eaten) so these would probably be the last drinks before making new plans. Kylie was out to meet me, and wasn’t looking to merge with the crowd.

I stepped outside, and Kylie had merged with the crowd.

Part 6: Truth or Dare

I haven’t played this since university, 14 years ago. And I didn’t play it at university, as far as I can remember. At high school...yeah ok, I’m not sure if I’ve played this game since I was a child. It’s surreal how silly the game is, the combination of risque and childlike natures butting up against each other. I’d basically decided that there weren’t going to be any romantic feelings arising, so moving away from a traditional date format wasn’t a big loss.

Charlotte and Pixie had met two other locals, and everybody seemed positive and friendly, so I stayed and resolved to go with the flow. Charlotte had oodles of personality, had a pink dress that matched her hair. Pixie was a little quieter and more reserved (maybe because she was the not drinking), her blue hair also had a matching dress. I forget the names of the two guys, but one was killing time until his Tinder date (he was going to the cinema), and the other was his mate.

It quickly became clear that I was the PG one of the group. Certainly, when compared to the ladies. Early on, I asked one of them what the most illegal thing they’d done was - I was not expecting “I once got strip-searched while holding Methamphetamines (a class A drug)” as a result. It certainly helped me out that Kylie was the one asking me, so everything had a fairly light touch.

Part 7: Interactions with other Patrons

So we’ve got the scene. 6 of us are sat round a picnic table in the courtyard of the pub. 2 guys, 3 ladies and me. Charlotte was evidently a dab hand at this; she knew to alert the bouncers - and find a safe table of other people sympathetic to the cause, to involve with dares. These dares varied from finding someone to do the Macarena to, to licking someone’s face. Yeah, that’s the level we were at by this point.

Some of these safe tables were amused by what we were doing, and before long I was being summoned by one of the tables that Kylie had gone over to chat to. A big, burly Glaswegian “invited” me to perch on his knee, so from that position we were able to confirm that yes - this was a first date, yes - we met on Tinder, and yes - we’d gotten merged with her “crazy” friends in a game of Truth or Dare. As I was explaining, Kylie sat on my knee, and Pixie sat on hers, making a chain of 4 people with the Glaswegian at the bottom. That didn’t last long.

The bartender was also becoming embroiled in the mess too, as Charlotte had noticed that he kind of liked her (not that she was interested, what with having a boyfriend). As such, when I bought a round, I was under strict instructions to announce that one of the drinks was for the girl with pink hair, and therefore it should be a special one. “I don’t think she can be shocked”, I commented. “Challenge accepted, he replied”. When he delivered the cocktail, she gave him a peck on the cheek. Then tasted it, and swapped with a friend (she doesn’t like spicy cocktails).

Part 8: Oversharing

I’m listing all of the shenanigans as if I was a passive observer. I feel like I should state for the sake of journalistic integrity that I certainly played a part, enabling the rest of the behaviour. I was happily referring to the evening as a car crash, but still going to the bar when it was my round (that as I recall came a bit more frequently than I’d expected). I wasn’t counting drinks...Maybe I could have been the voice of reason...Maybe I was enjoying the trainwreck of the evening with a morbid curiosity.

It was also interesting to hear other aspects of the ladies lives come out. Since splitting with her husband, Kylie had dated a hairdresser called Aragorn. Charlotte had previously dated Aragorn, and as the drinks flowed and the questions continued, certain home truths came out. Apparently, Kylie made lists about the things she didn’t like about her exes. I know this, because I was shown Aragorn’s list. Some of it was mundane, some explicit, and one line just said “Intellectually Inferior”. I have to appreciate the brutal honesty there.

Kylie also demonstrated her Tinder Swiping technique. Yes, on our first date I got to witness her going on Tinder and looking for other guys. The surreal-ness of the moment far outweighed any offence taken. However, the biscuit was taken when one of the ladies showed off a website she had found, where guys would post dick-pics in costume (the person, and the dicks). I still wrestle with what the appropriate reaction should have been. At the time, I went with stunned disbelief.

Part 9: Genre Shift, Part 2

The evening wore on, and the two guys decided to leave. They left most of a pint of light beer, and Charlotte decided that Pixie was safe to drink it. Charlotte found a couple of people from the “safe” tables to make up the numbers, but it didn’t really matter as the game was kinda falling apart regardless. We figured that food was probably a good idea, so we ordered a plate of Nachos (with the next round of drinks). Charlotte stays indoors for now.

When we came back, Kylie disappeared again to chat to some other newbies (I’d been helpfully informed that this was just the way she is), leaving me to chat with Pixie. It wasn’t long before a bouncer came over to have a friendly chat. 

“Your friend, over there... she has to leave. She’s too drunk, and bothering other customers”.

Well, shit. 

Part 10: Suddenly I’m sober

I honestly can’t remember being in the situation where I’ve been in the company of someone being ejected from a pub before. I turn to Pixie, who disappears inside (emphasis on the disappears) while I chat to the bouncer. He’s aware of my situation, and sympathetic, but can’t let Kylie stay there. I point out that we’re waiting for Nachos to hopefully sober her up. When they arrive, he offers to box them up - but she has to leave.

We head down to the picnic tables on the outskirts of the pub, and two ladies there offer to help take care of Kylie while I find her two friends, who are suddenly nowhere to be seen. I have to tell Charlotte twice (the second time with a “what the actual fuck”). Kylie falls off the chair, again. We discuss the options.

I can’t phone for a taxi, because my phone is in Lyttleton, and it’s a half hour drive back to Kylie’s.Charlotte can’t stay to help out, because there is a cute Eurasian guy at the bar she’s chatting toPixie can’t leave to take care of Kylie because she’s on her second pint now and the evening looks promising for her. The only option, Charlotte asserts is for me to take her home. I sense a nudge and a wink offered from Charlotte but not accepted by me.

I point out that while my place is walking distance, Kylie can’t walk. Pixie needs a recharge on her Vape anyway, so will ferry Kylie to mine, but not stay.I point out that she’s blackout drunk, and waking up in a stranger’s bed could be concerning to her. This doesn’t seem to be a problem.

Part 11: Exodus

So, Pixie and I both prop Kylie up and walk her to Pixie’s car. Kylie sits in the back. We drive two minutes to mine, and have to wake Kylie up. Pixie and I get her through my gate, in the front door and to my bedroom. Kylie collapses on the bed, already passed out.

My landlady is concerned that I left the gate open. While Pixie plugs in her Vape, I go close it and explain the beginnings of the situation. Pixie leaves. I explain the full story to my landlady. She understands and gets a bucket and towel, just in case. I go back into the bedroom. 

Kylie’s awake, and heard everything. She is valiantly staying almost upright, outraged at the suggestion that she might throw up. We assure her it’s not a slight on her character. She says she should go. At this point, I think better of pointing out that she doesn’t really have anywhere to go, as her friends have abandoned her.

I open a bag of cookies and get a glass of water. One cookie and mouthful of water, Kylie’s back to passed out on my bed. Bowie the dog is agitated, and would be more agitated if someone slept in the living room - and there are doubts of the safety for Kylie to be passed out alone. It’s 9:30, Oh boy, it’s going to be a long night.

Part 12: Sharing a bed

I change from my shirt into a t-shirt, and get my mobile. I’m full of emotion, put on life-tilt by the way the evening totally got away with me. I’m scared for Kylie, I’m scared for myself, I’m angry at Charlotte. I can’t sleep, and so I put Youtube on and watch videos. For over 5 hours, until 3am. Kylie makes occasional movements, and occasional sounds, True to her word, she doesn’t throw up.

At 3am, Kylie wakes up and says her first statement of the new day - that she forgot how uncomfortable it is to sleep wearing a bra. I sympathise and face away as she gets comfier and then goes back to sleep. I finally allow myself to relax, and fall asleep.

At 5am, we both wake again. Kylie is a bit more talkative now; waking up in my bed didn’t phase her at all. She can’t remember how she got to mine, but takes a sip of water. We chat a little, but I’m overtired and overstretched mentally. She is due to meet up with the ladies to raise money at a local market that morning, and starts texting them. At 6:30am, they are apparently on their way. We turn the light on and she sees the bucket. “I never throw up” she comments, offhandedly.

We wait outside, and a few minutes later, Pixie drives up. Charlotte is in the car, but they are literally just picking her up and driving off. I return inside, and see her jewelry. Pixie drives back to pick up the jewelry, and they are gone.

Part 13: The Aftermath

Sleep remains elusive for a while; I don’t really sleep all day, but I don’t get up either. It messes with my mind, and my sleep pattern goes out of whack. I mean, it’s 1:15am 3 days later and I’m still a bit zombified.

I receive a message a few hours later saying Kylie made it to the market, with her friends - and they are re-evaluating their life choices.

The following morning, Kylie sends me a message to say that she appreciated me taking care of her - but needs to do some soup searching and so will be deleting her Tinder profile (that’s why I will see her disappear from my contacts list). I appreciate that, and wish her the best. She points out that she meant to type soul searching, not soup searching. I understand. 

Part 14: The Lessons

I take the time I have to look back at the warning signs, see if there’s any lesson I can take from it. There were definitely some yellow flags I need to be aware of. It’s good to stay aware of what might go wrong, and how it might go wrong.

But you know what? If you never have regrets, you’re not taking enough risks. It was exhausting, and ended the wrong way - but the evening was certainly memorable, and certainly entertaining in its own screwed up kind of way.

I came out here to meet new, interesting people. On Saturday, I met an order of magnitude more people than I was prepared for, and none of them were actually obnoxious, or bad people, or in any way unfriendly or unwelcoming. 

I’m grateful to the bouncer for calling it a night before Kylie did something really dangerous, and to the barman for playing along like a good sport. I’m grateful to the randoms at the bar for getting into the spirit of things and letting the forces of nature that were Kylie, Charlotte and Pixie do their thing. I’m grateful to Charlotte and Pixie for being a lot of fun throughout the evening, and legitimately caring about their friendship (I’m generously saying that their decision to have Kylie stay at mine was based on good judgment of character, knowing they can trust me and maybe slightly impaired perception).

Mainly, I’m grateful to Kylie for opening the door on what was certainly the most interesting story I’ve encountered to date, and inviting me in.

It’s going to be a while before I’m up to something like that again, though.

[thetravelling1]

T+68: Budget, month 2

This is a sequel to this post, where I realised that the first month I spent here was fairly expensive - but the good news is that a lot of the costs were 1-shot, so future costs are likely to decrease. 

As such, I was eager to find out how much cheaper my second month (well, 38 days). And... It’s not exactly cheaper! GBP Equivalent is still £4k. Why isn’t it cheaper? Let’s see the breakdown!

Food and Drink - £1181

This is certainly higher than I would hope going forwards. I’ve been doing a lot of travelling, and that includes eating out a lot. Average daily cost is £31, which is double what it was in the first month! I certainly want to get control of this, so I’ll be focusing on trying to do more home cooking etc! If I can, I’d like to get and keep this down to £600/month

Accommodation - £1044

This cost has been mainly inflated because of initial security deposit on the rental room I’ve got, and extra accommodation costs in Wellington. I expect future accommodation costs to be £470/month

Migration Costs - £580

This is a one-off to apply to visas and extra incidentals. I don’t imagine re-applying is going to be a big part of my ongoing costs. 

Transport - £551

The majority of this cost is the return ferry to Wellington. I will need a running car for work but I reckon this should be much less going forwards!

Homewares - £442

Buying bedding etc. One shot :)

Entertainment - £285

I don’t hold back from doing fun stuff!

As much as all of this looks inflated and scary, I think the precedent it sets up is really optimistic. Future monthly costs (in NZD) are:

Accommodation: $823

Food: $867

Transport: $500

Entertainment: $350

Total: $2540 a month aka £1500

It’s not peanuts, but it’s well within my budget.

[thetravelling1]

T+71: Victory

 On 1st September (aka T+58) at 3:23 am I received an email from the Visa people, saying:

Thank you for your application for a New Zealand visa.We have completed an assessment and at this stage do not require any further information. The medical certificate for this application is currently under referral with our Health Assessment Team.  A further update is likely in approximately 8 to 10 working days.

Since then, I’ve been checking my email a few times a day, just in case I got the further update. Nothing much happening (don’t worry, I have been filling my days in general - I need to retroactively fill you in and actually upload some photos!

This morning, I woke and checked my email and saw the following message delivered at 4:02am:

A document relating to visa application <redacted> has been uploaded to your ONLINE account by Immigration New Zealand. Please follow this link to log on to your account and view the correspondence.

On following the link, I logged on and saw my application status was still “submitted”. I clicked on it to see the attached documents. Sure enough, there was a new document entitled “Letter from Immigration New Zealand”. 

So I downloaded it and opened it. I won’t paste the entire thing, just the title.

New Zealand work visa approval

Huh. So no meetings needed, no original documents, not even a phone call to make sure my voice was human. I submitted the documents, and 9 working days later I have my Visa. All very matter of fact. Just a bit anticlimactic. Like this is something that happens to thousands of people every day.

I got to the door, and it was open. 71 days after committing to this journey, there are no more “what if”s. There was an instant feeling of relief, and elation. And I told the people involved in the employment that I had the visa and could therefore agree a start date. Then I filled in my application for an IRD number (so I can pay tax). 

Now I’m back home, typing this up and there’s a bit of a “what now” feeling. Phase 3 is not yet complete - that happens when I complete my first day of paid employment. Hopefully it’ll happen soon, I’ve been itching to do something useful for months!

So I guess I’m going to go to the gym and see how hard I can push!

[thetravelling1]

Infiltrator Odds Redux

This post uses some maths to work out the odds of a player in a game being Bad given their actions. But what if I’m no good at maths? Is there any way to get a computer to tell me the answer to a question that I can’t even express in concrete equation form? Why yes, there is, and it’s called a Monte Carlo Simulation. And it’s as geeky as the maths, so I’m hiding this too!

There’s a bunch of stuff that computers aren’t any good at. The one thing they are best at [citation needed] is crunching numbers, and repeating mind-numbing tasks over and over again [technically two things?]. These are the basics of a Monte Carlo Simulation. 

Wikipedia says it was first attempted in the 1930s by Enrico Fermi. Simply put, if you want to know the odds of a particular outcome of a complex mechanism that includes some randomness, simply run through that mechanism a large number of times, and see how many times you get each possible result.

You can set up the initial state randomly using a standard Random Number Generator (available in most languages), go through the algorithm that determines the outcome, and add one to a result counter. Then, bundle all that up in a loop that goes as many times as you need. The more times you repeat, the closer the simulator will be to the true mathematical result.

So, for the example problem, I need one way of recording the random distribution of player alignments, and another way of recording the random distribution of tiles. For my purposes, these use the same template:

boolean[] layout = new boolean[17]; int[] sets = new int[6]; Random r = new Random(); for (int goodPolicies = 0; goodPolicies < 6; ) {    int nextPlace = r.nextInt(17);    if (!layout[nextPlace]) {        goodPolicies++;        layout[nextPlace] = true;        sets[nextPlace/3]++;    } }

The above code ends up with 17 Tiles, numbered 0-16 (that’s how arrays work in programming - deal with it), of whom 6 have values True (they are good) and 11 have values False (the default when you create a boolean). There is also a summary of the different “sets” available within the game - as you pick up the tiles in sets of 3, all that really matters is how many of each set of 3 tiles are Good.

Once the state is created, the “business logic” is very simple:

if ((sets[0]==0 || sets[0]==1&&!players[0]) && (sets[1]==1 && sets[2]==1 && sets[3]==3)) {    return players[0]; }

This is asking about a very specific example - it’s caring about Player #0 passing 2 bad policies (either there are 0 good policies in the first set, or there’s 1 good policy and the player is not Good) - but also only cares about cases where Player #1 saw 1 Good tile, Player #2 also saw 1 Good tile and Player 3 saw 3 Good tiles. I can afford to assume nothing about the scenario because the legwork is being done by a computer! 

What happens if the case doesn’t happen? Well, then it doesn’t yet return a value. Instead, it goes back to the beginning and restarts the generation of a new scenario. All of the scenarios where the events I witnessed are quietly discarded. I only see situations where things turned out as I witnessed - and in each case I then look to see whether Player #0 turned out to be good or bad. If everything works out, I should get the same result as the maths predicts!

Aaand... the output after all ten million outcomes gives the following output:

We have 5554921 successes, 4445079 failures.

A “success” is defined as Player 0 being Good, and a “failure” is Player 0 being Bad. This implies a “Bad” rate of 44.45%, versus the mathematically calculated 44.44%. Pretty good evidence for me :)

[thetravelling1]

T+64: Infiltrator Odds

Before I go much further, a quick note to my Mum: I had a good day in Akaroa! I saw Dolphins! The rest of this post will be really dull for you!

One of the things I’ve been busying myself with while waiting for the visa and consequent job to come through is an online version of a social deduction game called “Secret Hitler” (fairly sure it’s intended to be tongue in cheek - even still, we rebranded it to play on our forums). Taken at its geekiest, it has a lot of maths involved. That’s what this post is about. You have been warned!

Ok, now we’ve gotten rid of the slackers, let’s get down to business.

In the version I’m playing, there are 6 players, of which 4 are on the “Good” side, and 2 are “Infiltrators”. The Infiltrators know who each other are; the Good players are very much incentivised to work out who the Infiltrators are. As we play, we have to elect 2-player governments with a President and a Chancellor. Once elected, the President looks at the top 3 tiles in a shuffled deck, discards one and passes 2 to the Chancellor, who discards one and reveals only the third tile, which is enacted. If 5 Good policies are revealed before 6 Bad policies are, the good guys win. Problem is, the deck has 17 tiles, of which only 6 are Good. There’s more, but this is enough for the maths within this post.

So, there’s one particular player who asked me to determine the odds (from what I knew) that he was on the Bad side. And...there’s more than one answer.

At a basic level at the beginning of the game, the chances of them being an Infiltrator is 2/6 - so that was easy. Thing is, additional information starts to come in almost immediately. 

I look at my role, which is Good, so the chance of them being bad rises to 2/5. 

Then, another player revealed to me (via their actions) that they were Bad. At that point, the chance of the chosen player being Bad (from my point of view) falls to 1/4. 

If I were another Good player in the game, I’d see that there were 2 players of whom at least 1 is definitely Bad. If I can assume that the other is definitely Good, then there are only 3 unknown players, of which 1 is Bad - so the “background probability” goes back to 1/3.

The extra interesting piece of information is that the first time this player was President, they sent their chancellor 2 Bad policies, claiming to have seen 3 Bad policies. There are two explanations for this - they’re either telling the truth (in which case, they could be Good or Bad), or they saw 2 Bad, 1 Good and were a Bad Guy.

This is where Bayes theory kicks in - this states that P(A|B) = {P(B|A)*P(A)}/P(B). Or, in ordinary language, the chance that a specific cause is the explanation for a given event is the [chance that the event happens given the cause happened] times [chance that the cause is true (in the abstract)], divided by the [chances of the event happening (with or without the specific cause)].

In our case, we know that the player passed 2*Bad, so that’s B. We want to know the chance that the player is Bad, which is A. As such, the right hand side is: [The chance that the player can pass 2 bad tiles given they are Bad] * [Background probability they are Bad] / [The chance that they pass 2*bad, whether they are good or bad].

Thing is, each of these can have a number of values. We can look up the “background probabilities from this handy link. The top 3 tiles at the beginning of the game are 24.26% likely to be all Bad, and 48.53% likely to have 1 Good, 2 Bad. I’m going to use the 1/3 “background probability” of the player being bad - as that’s it from a spectator’s point of view and handily also from a good player’s point of view.

So, [The chance that the player can pass 2 bad tiles if they are bad] is 72.79%, [Background probability they are bad] is 1/3 and [the chance that they pass 2*bad] is (1/3*72.79 + 2/3*24.26) = 40.43% (which happens to be 24.26*5/3). In other words, there are 2 ways we could end up in this world - one has 24.26% chance of happening, and the other has 16.17% happening. Given that we’re in this world, there’s a 60% chance of it being because the player in question was a bad player.

But then, more information came in! After the round in question, 9 more tiles were looked at. According to reports, 5 of them were Good and only 4 were Bad. This makes it more likely that the Player was Good after all. How much more likely? I’m glad you asked!

Although the list is meant to represent future picks given a particular set of tiles has been discarded, you can use it to identify the odds for any set of three “hidden” tiles when you remove a set of known tiles from the game. In this case, we know 9 of them, meaning we’re identifying the location of 1 Good and 7 Bad tile.

In this case, [The chance that the player can pass 2 tiles if they are bad] is 100%! Background probability they are bad is still 1/3 - so the numerator of the equation has increased to 1/3. The denominator however changes much more radically. The chance of 2 bad being passed is (1/3 + 2/3*62.5%) = 75%. Total chance of the player being bad in this world is 44%, which is a lot closer to the background probability of 33% than it initially looked (60% damning).

But wait, what if someone lied? It could be that a bad president decided to “tuck” a Good policy and lied about the top tile of the deck (which is the behaviour we’re investigating the Chosen Player for). Well, in that world, the chance of the Chosen Player being bad is...0%! This is because only 2 players are bad, and I know who one of them is (and they had no chance to tuck in this form). If another player tucked, then it can’t have been BOTH the Chosen Player and the other tucking player. 

The game will keep evolving and the chances will keep shifting, but it’s been a useful intro to conditional probability and fun to think through!

[thetravelling1]

T+63: An update of non-updates

Right now I'm still in limbo, pretty much. The visa people have confirmed they don't need anything else from me for now, and will hopefully give me my next update by the end of next week.

I'm settled enough in the new house, Bruno the cat is friendly enough and Bowie the dog is on the excitable side of friendly but still pleasant enough.

I looked into joining a gym, but the prices at the local one seem excessive ($25/week!) and the rest seem inconvenient enough that I'd have trouble getting into the habit.

I looked into going skiing, but a combination of lack of equipment/end of season/travel plans/having to go by myself didn't quite put it over the top.

Yesterday I woke up feeling bad and spent the day in bed, resulting in me feeling worse. I'm up and about, managed to work out the next steps for phone contract and had lunch, but feel very spaced.

I've met some cool people and got a nice holding pattern of activities (mainly meetup pub quizzes), but have only one really proper friend so far.

I'm not complaining, and I'm not kicking myself at this point, just prodding myself that there is more I can and should do to cultivate the life I really want to live. I'm still in the transitional phase, and that's cool. I guess it's just still a work in progress.

[thetravelling1]

T+55: Doubling Up

There are many types of working visa one can apply for. I thoroughly recommend the Working Holiday Visa if you can go for it, as the number of hoops you need to jump through are significantly reduced. However, one of those hoops is being under 30, which I have mastered, having done it for a good 30 years. Sadly this window closed for me before I knew it existed. As such, there were three main visa options I could have applied for: -Work to residency (long term skills shortage list) This means you have a job offer in an area that NZ needs more people who are qualified to do it. It's only valid for 30 months, but after 2 years, you can apply to upgrade it to a Residency Visa. For the interim two years, you're kind of in limbo. -Work to residency (accredited employer) This means the same as the last one, except the employer has already jumped through some hoops and the government trusts them to hire responsibly. -Skilled Migrant This means you have accumulated enough points to exceed their threshold. They process the pile from most points down, and applications can easily take 6 months. When I got my job offer, I tried to apply for a Long Term Skills Shortage visa. I was right on the verge of sending off the paperwork when my employer told me that they were accredited, meaning fewer hoops. Awesome! On Friday, the visa people came back with the first wave of extra checks and confirmations, which I finished resolving on Monday. Today, I woke up without paperwork to do. So... I found some new paperwork. Y'see, my default plan would man remaining in non-resident work for 2 years. There is an option to get out of limbo faster, which is to apply for two different visas at once (work to residence and skilled migrant). They shouldn't interfere with each other, and my situation will be upgraded when I get the residence visa, regardless of channel. As a result, I spent a good amount of the day wrestling with the website (either my connection was flaky or their system is a little bit fragile). I kept being given 3000 character boxes to explain why the jobs I've been doing qualify as "skilled". That's..surreal. The other thing that I'm cognisant off is the possible message it'd send to my employer. You see, a work to residence visa is tied into a particular employer. It's possible, but not easy, to jump around when you're on it. If I was hedging my bets, I'd want to upgrade to Residency asap. For that reason, I was thinking of just doing the Plan A route; put in my time on my Work to Residence visa. But then I found out that there is an equivalent of an ISA over here, called the Kiwisaver. It behooves you to apply asap, so that's an extra reason to get into it. So yeah, midway through the second visa application, and my phone starts ringing. It was the Wellington based employer who I interviewed with a week and a bit ago. They apologised for the delay, noticed I'd withdrawn my application and why, and offered me the job there too regardless! I thanked them for the consideration, kicked myself for not leaving the voicemail either of the times I'd called, but as I'd signed the contract, I considered it a done deal. Maybe we can work together in the future, and it was good that they called me to discuss and let me know I'd've gotten an offer from them, but right now there's nothing I can/want to do with it. So yeah, from this morning, I have doubled the number of job offers, and also the number of visas I have (almost) applied for.

[thetravelling1]

T+54: My First Birthday

I'll be ticking off the series of "first"s in this country, much like I ticked off the series of "last"s before I left the UK. My first Christmas is going to be an interesting experience for sure, being all backwards and upside down and warm etc! I thoroughly intend to raise a glass of white wine to Mr. Minchin... But today's not about that, it's about my birthday. I turned 36 yesterday, and celebrated in my newly found low-key way. And it took up my entire weekend. On Friday, I did board gaming throughout the daytime, and M:TG draft in the evening. Saturday morning, I woke early to meet Netty for breakfast at the Riccarton Bush farmer's market, the local tree-climbing championship, wandering through the Bush (woodland), buying cheese, meats and olives for a picnic, getting a tour around Riccarton House, then dropping my sipping back at my house before... ...Saturday afternoon, we met again at the local big department store where we had lunch and a wander round before heading out in a search for bedding, furniture and music. There were a few art galleries/supply shops on the way, which had some cool things on sale... But walking back from the music shop, I realised I felt like... ...The cinema, which I failed to convince Netty that the lack of quality of the movie was enough to torpedo a chance to watch Idris Elba in action. It was fine, don't get me wrong. Hollywood is great at "fine", nowadays. Anyway, we had pizza at the local place and got out just in time for me to watch American Made, the Tom Cruise movie about a pilot who worked for the CIA and Pablo Escobar simultaneously. Got home at 11:30, after one of the fullest, most diversely entertaining day. On Sunday, I did one thing, but I did it thoroughly. Specifically, took Ofel to Bottle Lake Forest - and walked through trail, sand, mud and ridiculous puddles all the way up to the top of the map and back. We might have gotten slightly lost on the way, but gps and a very rough map combined with asking the locals showed us the way. Afterwards, we shared a paleo picnic (see above) and retired to regroup and see about going to a swing band...but in reality, I had a lie down and watched "Bernie". Then I got a takeaway curry and had a very well-deserved rest. Fun weekend, very unlike any birthday I've ever had before. And that's fitting, and good.

[thetravelling1]

Easiest way I've found to make and keep plans!

[thetravelling1]

T+49: Roots

I’ve noticed a small inverse correlation between how many words I post and the impact of the news. So, with that in mind:

I am now renting a home for myself. And my visa application is submitted.

[thetravelling1]

T+48: Two new things to wrestle with

Saturday, I drove back from Wellington to Christchurch. Long day, starting at 6:40am and parking up at 7pm, only to start celebrating the job with Netty. A couple of shots of patron, a bottle of bubbly and a bottle of amaretto later, it's 3am. Sunday, I did not enjoy. Although, walking the 4k to get breakfast and same distance back with dinner along the beach was rather good. Monday, I started the wild visa hunt. Met up with my manager to fill in paperwork. On the drive home, was asked not to file it yet. Turns out, my company is Accredited, so they can Sponsor my application. Which means it's cheaper and faster. Or, at least, it would be...if only the visa website refused to upload my documents. There's currently a call open with their tech support. They seem helpful and reactive enough, I just want to get it done! So, I'm left house hunting. The good news is it seems really easy to find a room here. Between Facebook, EasyRoommate and TradeMe property, there are options for days. Problem is, I'm not just looking for a room; I'm looking for a home to slot into. I managed to set up four appointments in my first day of hunting, and I'm halfway through them now. Looking on the bright side, they each made my decision easy. The first felt like an international boarding house, with 7 bedrooms but no personality. The second reminded me so nicely of what it was like to be a student - and why I don't want to go through those living conditions again. The next two, I'm more hopeful. One is on Russley Road, so on the highway by the airport, but the area is very rural. There are apparently sheep in the back yard! Also, very close to my new workplace. The last is a personal recommendation from a friend in skeptics in the pub. It's to live with a couple, but a couple who understand and mitigate the risks of being a third wheel. They climb rocks and have a car, which is two big positives! Ok, enough posting, time to hunt some houses!

[thetravelling1]

T+44: Phase Two Complete!

Not a lot to report, other than the fact I’ve accepted a job offer.

It’s in Christchurch, as a software developer for a large electronics retailer. 

I get to use the niche technology that I have used for over a decade (yeah, that makes me feel old), as well as Java (which I last used in 2005!)

The office has the right culture for me, which is great. Casual but also results-oriented. The wage is perfectly serviceable, and I get decent benefits.

Most importantly, it will get me a visa.

Tomorrow morning, I’ll be jumping on a ferry back to Picton, then driving back to Christchurch to sort out paperwork and getting longer term accommodation.

Phase 3 will be getting my visa, finding a room to rent in a place I like, and starting work. Lots of other things to sort out too, but I won’t have the same prospect of “failure”.