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Do you think Cersei was bluffing in her threat to execute Sansa if Ned did not ''confess''? Cersei's goal was to get the Starks to go back North in order to free up Tywin's army to fight Stannis and Renly killing Sansa would have prevented that. Sansa might not be the Lord of Winterfell but she was still a Stark and Robb's sister, plus executing a child who was still officially Joffrey's betrothed would have looked horrible who would want to marry Joffrey after that?

To confirm, are we talking about this passage?

"Pity." The eunuch stood. "And your daughter's life, my lord? How precious is that?" A chill pierced Ned's heart. "My daughter …" "Surely you did not think I'd forgotten about your sweet innocent, my lord? The queen most certainly has not." Eddard XV, AGoT

Because if we are, there are multiple things going on here. First and most importantly, this is not Cersei speaking. This is Varys, and he came down to the dungeons with an agenda in mind. He wants Ned to confess, because he's trying to stall the outbreak of war, and if Ned's killed, everyone starts fighting in earnest right now and the likelihood of drastic actions (like, say, the North declaring independence) goes way way up. Not the conditions Varys wants right now. Varys is the one laying on the implied, immediate threats to Sansa's life, because he knows that's an effective way to get Ned to act.

That said, this is credible because Sansa is a hostage and because Cersei's character is, well, a known thing. Would Cersei kill a child for her political agenda? Absolutely. In fact she'll have several children killed within weeks of this conversation. There's also no need to execute Sansa publicly to get Ned to do anything - what's stopping Sansa from "falling ill"? Having a "tragic riding accident"?

Even if Sansa was executed in public as a hostage, recall how the people of King's Landing reacted when Sansa was set aside: "no traitor queens". The situation changed from when the betrothal was originally made, everyone knows it, and so it's absolutely possible to spin such an action without damaging Joffrey's marriage prospects.

Cersei's also in a bad position of her own. Yes, she wants the Starks to go back north and leave Tywin free to take on Stannis and Renly, which isn't happening if Ned dies but might happen despite Sansa's death if Ned remains alive (girls are not important enough) - but she also needs Ned, who knows about her affair with Jaime and the parentage of her children, to never say anything about it ever. She's in a real bind here. She needs Ned alive and she needs Ned dead. She needs a hold over Ned, but as the Freys showed us in AFFC, hostages are no good if you can't follow through.

It is this inherent uncertainty that Varys uses to great effect. How much does Ned feel like gambling on Cersei's character and foresight, in this complex and changing situation, when Sansa's life is at stake?

Not at all.

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what do you think the hound thought of Ned sending people to kill Gregor and calling Gregor a false knight? Littlefinger said cersei told the hound, how’d he react?

Probably the same way he reacted when Ned was horrified over Mycah's death. This is Sandor at the very start of his character development - where he believes moral outrage is for show, not for real. Gregor is also the boogeyman of Sandor's childhood, and I'd be shocked if Sandor believed anything would come of Ned's actions.

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why wasn’t there any concern about maergery being pregnant by renly after renly a death? By the reachermen and stormlanders, and by Tywin and the Lannisters at court?

Can't be pregnant if there was no sex. And the line from the Tyrells is that there was no sex.

"Your Grace," Garlan said when the king approached him, "I have a maiden sister, Margaery, the delight of our House. She was wed to Renly Baratheon, as you know, but Lord Renly went to war before the marriage could be consummated, so she remains innocent." Sansa VIII, ACoK

Since it's not the best-kept secret in the Westerosi court that Renly prefers men, this works as an explanation. If anyone has their suspicions that there's no way in hell either Renly or the Tyrells would allow that marriage to be annulled for lack of consummation, well, calling them out means picking a fight with the people who have soldiers and food.

You've got two broad camps here. People who believe there was no consummation, whether because they accept the Tyrell story or because they think Renly couldn't possibly have had sex with a woman, and people who believe there was consummation. The people who believe there was consummation are also likely to be worldly enough to realise that there are other ways of dealing with potential pregnancies than "I guess we'll wait and see and maybe it'll ruin our continent-spanning political ambitions!" Either way, Margaery's potential pregnancy is not a concern.

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what’s the point of JonCons povs if we have arriane for Faegon, and had Tyrion for the boat and sussing out illyio and aegon? Will we find anything out or see anything major with him?

I'm not entirely sold on saying that anyone's there "for" Aegon. Most of the recurring PoV characters are the protagonists of their own little subplots. This is part of GRRM's decision not to use kings as the protagonists - the king can be an obstacle to what the protagonists truly want, as much as they can be an asset. Arianne's got her own journey; she's there for herself, not for Aegon. JonCon has his own journey; he's there in his own right too. While he's there, he's providing an intimate and interior perspective on Aegon's campaign that neither Tyrion nor Arianne could.

JonCon also fleshes out some of the Rebellion-era perspective, particularly on Rhaegar as a human being, when Rhaegar's personality and actions during the Rebellion are likely to become relevant to the backstory reveals. Unlike most of our other PoVs, JonCon was an adult during the Rebellion and has fully-formed memories of the time period, even if he wasn't the closest to the action.

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Jorah endgame? Will he do his dads wish do you think or something different?

Jeor's last words spoken to Sam: His breathing was very shallow now, his voice a whisper. "Tell my son. Jorah. Tell him, take the black. My wish. Dying wish.

Look, I'm biased, because I think Jorah's an absolute shitheel. That said, the reason I think he's a shitheel is because of his complete lack of self-reflection on his creepy behaviour and his inability to accept that Dany is just not into him. I tend to think that the lack of self-reflection is the thing that will stop him going to the Watch.

What happens to him instead? No idea.

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Cateyln about Brandon stark to Jaime -“He was on his way to Riverrun when."Strange, how telling it still made her throat grow tight, after all these years. when he heard about Lyanna, and went to King's Landing instead. It was a rash thing to do." She remembered how her own father had raged when the news had been brought to Riverrun. The gallant fool, was What he called Brandon.”

Why did hoster rage after hearing Brandon left for KL instead of going to Riverrun? Did hoster expect for Brandon to not do anything or did he think lyanna went willingly or that Brandon should’ve gone with an army (even though he didn’t want to use Tully swords until the Arryn and stark double match)? 

Almost certainly Hoster thought Brandon was going off half-cocked in such a way that would only result in getting himself killed. This would mean a big old spoke in Hoster's plans to marry off Catelyn and some major political conflict. Just because Hoster dealt with the fallout effectively (wrangling more from the circumstances than he'd arranged for prior to the start of the war) doesn't mean he wasn't okay with the Brandon-Catelyn status quo at the time.

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if Oberyn got the confession form the moutain in the fight. What would’ve happened?

Oberyn did get the confession.

"Elia of Dorne," they all heard Ser Gregor say, when they were close enough to kiss. His deep voice boomed within the helm. "I killed her screaming whelp." [...] "Then I raped her." [...] "Then I smashed her fucking head in. Like this." Tyrion X, ASoS

We saw what happened, too - Oberyn fought with poisoned blades so that as long as he drew Gregor's blood in the fight, Gregor would die. The confession had zero legal effect, since Gregor wasn't on trial, but its public nature meant that some acknowlegement was due.

"Then I fear Ser Gregor may die." "Undoubtedly. I swore as much in the letter I sent to Prince Doran with his brother's body. But it must be seen to be the sword of the King's Justice that slays him, not a poisoned spear. Heal him." Pycelle and Tywin, Jaime IX, ASoS

Having extracted the confession, Tywin would have been forced to have Gregor executed for his crimes. Which is essentially a hollow gesture from the Lannisters. Oberyn forced this result. Oberyn forced the King's Justice to act. Had he done nothing, Gregor would still have been in his previous job, with the same boss he had at the Sack of King's Landing:

Tyrion saw no reason not to cut to the heart of the matter. "Or have you grown so fond of Gregor Clegane that you cannot bear to part with him?" "Ser Gregor has his uses, as did his brother. Every lord has need of a beast from time to time . . ." Tyrion and Tywin, Tyrion I, ASoS

Tywin's preparedness to sacrifice Gregor is nothing more than image management. It's not the King's Justice, let alone a more coherent, rigorous process that also assigns blame (and punishment) to the person who gave Gregor orders to begin with. It does nothing about the "King's Justice" that was the King deliberately looking away from those crimes. Doran knows this. Doran feels this.

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Right before the purple Wedding Tyrion suggests to Sansa that they go to Casterly Rock apparently hoping the idea would please her. Why on earth would he think that? Tyrion from the start knows perfectly well Sansa despises House Lannister so why would he think visiting the home of the Lannisters where a bunch more of them live would make her happy?

"I had been thinking that when the roads are safe again, we might journey to Casterly Rock." Far from Joffrey and my sister. Tyrion VIII, ASoS

Tyrion's trying to get both himself and Sansa away from Joffrey and Cersei, and quite naturally he thinks of the safest place he knows - his own home. Sure, it's his abusive father's HQ, but to Tyrion the surest defence against the various injustices the world inflicts upon him for his disability is being a Lannister. The Rock is a shield for him.

It's not a great attempt at trying to help Sansa, but it's an attempt nevertheless.

His mouth tightened. What a pathetic little man you are. Did you think babbling about the Lion's Mouth would make her smile? When have you ever made a woman smile but with gold?

He can't see past his own pain to see Sansa's point of view. It's part of the human complexity the author's trying to depict, and a situation where the author's aiming for the reader to sympathise with two abuse victims with mutually exclusive needs.

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You won't find me saying Lysa didn't rape Littlefinger. Quite the opposite.

That said. I think there are key differences between a fourteen-year-old or fifteen-year-old perpetrator doing stupid, callous, cruel stuff on two opportunities, and someone in their late twenties-early thirties taking years to plan and carry out their crimes. It doesn't make Lysa's actions less wrong in and of themselves, it makes the useful response to it different.

Furthermore, Lysa's life is more than her relationship with Littlefinger. It's perfectly valid to talk about Lysa's separate traumas over the abortion her father forced on her, her cold relationship with the much older man she was forced to marry, and the repeated physical and psychological traumas of stillbirth and miscarriage, especially in a society where AFAB people are expected to provide their husbands with male heirs. That's the point of the original post.

When it comes to Littlefinger, even if I accepted the idea of a "right" to take revenge (I personally don't, but obviously other people think differently), there's also the fact that Littlefinger's revenge isn't about Lysa. As much as he despises her, and I believe he despises her, his plans aren't about her. He's trying to revenge himself on his entire social class. He's trying to revenge himself on Catelyn and her husband and her father for taking away his dreams. He's trying to prove himself the smartest boy in the whole wide world, and everyone who dismissed him wrong. Lysa is incidental. A useful tool, who was disposed of when she became a liability.

If Littlefinger wanted revenge on Lysa due to his society's failure to prosecute Lysa's actions as the crimes we the readers know them to be, he could have just killed her. That's within his capabilities. Hell. If he'd told Lysa "I've only ever loved one woman - only Cat," walked away, and never talked to Lysa again, that would be an insanely fitting revenge.

But Littlefinger did not do this.

Instead he deliberately strung Lysa along, for years, taking advantage of her unrelated traumas, until he could get something else entirely out of his relationship with her. Then he killed her, and even then he blamed a witness (resulting in their torture and death) so he could wring yet more benefit from her death.

What Littlefinger did to Lysa was only in a very small part revenge on her, for her crimes against him. Whatever right Littlefinger had to seek justice (which I do believe in) doesn't apply to what he did.

Catelyn remembers Lysa as “the slender, high-breasted girl who'd waited beside her that day in the sept at Riverrun... [how] lovely and full of hope she had been.” This was early on in AGOT before she heard her father’s Tansy confession but even so, do you think that Lysa ever actually had hope for her marriage to Jon Arryn?

Also, how early on do you think her intense resentment of Catelyn began?

Augh, possibly my least favourite sentence from Catelyn's PoV. Describing her own freakin' sister as "high-breasted"??? Without an "oh no I hope her foundation garments aren't going wrong under that gown" and/or "lol what a wardrobe malfunction, it looks like her bra is climbing her neck" tagged on? Suspension of disbelief broken there. Thus writes someone who hasn't dealt with various boob containment devices almost every day since puberty.

Tangent aside, I think Lysa did start hopeful. Maybe not hopeful about her relationship with Jon Arryn himself, but that she would be able to have children and build a family. Alas.

Similarly, I think Lysa was long aware that Catelyn had personal qualities (and got attention for those qualities) that Lysa herself did not. I think it started to bite Lysa more deeply when Catelyn didn't even notice that the boy Lysa was in love with, loved Catelyn. I think it got worse as she dealt with a series of miscarriages and stillbirths, then a child with chronic health problems, while every year or two she'd hear that Catelyn had another healthy child. Then I think Littlefinger took advantage of all that misery building up in Lysa and made sure it got worse. What might have stayed a private tragedy for Lysa was used and abused as part of Littlefinger's revenge.

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Do you find it a little odd that Cersei still thinks Sansa is stupid after the Purple Wedding? Cersei is convinced that Sansa masterminded the whole thing and she did successfully escape the city. Despite that when she thinks about her in Feast and Dance Cersei makes it clear she still views Sansa as stupid.

Nope. That particular realisation is fighting uphill against a) Cersei's internalised misogyny and b) Cersei's overblown opinion of her own skills... which, not for the last time, leads to her underestimating the capabilities of other people.

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what do you think this is regards to?

“Balerion's shadow swept across the yards and halls of the Red Keep as he came down, his huge wings buffeting the air, to land in the inner ward by Maegor's Holdfast. Scarcely had he touched the ground than Princess Area slid from his back. Even those who had known her best during her years at court scarce recognized the girl. She was near enough to naked as to make no matter, her clothing no more than rags and tatters clinging to her arms and legs. Her hair was tangled and matted, her limbs as thin as sticks. "Please!" she cried to the knights and squires and serving men who had seen her descend. Then, as they came rushing toward her, she said, "I never," and collapsed.”

It's classic horror writing - leaving ambiguity there for the reader to fill in themselves. The writer makes space for the reader to imagine whatever's scariest and/or most heartbreaking for them.

So think about Aerea's background, her relationship with her mother and her time on Dragonstone, the fear and pain she was experiencing as she flew home to die, and imagine away. Nothing I can suggest will make it better.

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Did Cersei really see herself as a mentor figure to Sansa? She claims she tried to teach her about life but it's not like people were listening to their "love is poison let's commit a suicide pact" talk. And how does that pair with the YAMBQ fears? Is this mentoring just a relic of a time before GRR meant to give Cersei a POV?

It's one of those places where there's a gap between Cersei's perception and, you know, reality. In Cersei's mind she was dispensing wisdom to Sansa. She was gracious in telling Sansa she should just suck it up when Joffrey tormented her and that the only thing she could ever be valued for is sex. She was gracious in giving Sansa the choice to walk to the altar to be married off against her will. She even gave Sansa pretty dresses to be abused in! The very height of charity.

Meanwhile, Sansa's just there with the reader going "lady...do you hear yourself?"

As for how this works with Cersei's fear of a younger and more beautiful queen absolutely trashing her life, we do have to work with the knowledge that this prophecy was written into Cersei's PoV in AFFC. I don't think it does a whole lot of damage in this respect. Cersei's so fundamentally self-absorbed and arrogant, the lies she tells herself and others are so inconsistent and self-aggrandising, that I have no problem believing that Cersei convinced herself that Sansa was not a threat, that her efforts to tear Sansa down were really building her up - or believing that Cersei would tell herself anything in the name of justifying however she chose to treat Sansa.

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why in ACOK was edmure avoiding seeig his father? Cat said he’d rather ‘face battle than that sickroom’ even when she thinks hoster will die

Because it can be difficult - really, really difficult - to see someone you love that ill.

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So given that Barristan was Rhaegar's friend do you find it a little surprising that Robert made him the Lord Commander of his Kingsguard? Robert was much less generous to House Targaryens closest supporters like the Darry's and Conningtons.

Not really, not to me.

First up, Ser Barristan's a knight of pretty much impeccable reputation. He and Jaime (Jaime!) were the only two of their order to think through Aerys' actions and go "you know what? that shit is not what a king should do", even if Barristan's consideration was limited and late. Where Aerys' word is law, there's no such thing as an illegal order - navigating this situation was completely on the individual members of the Kingsguard. By contrast, most people in Westeros, Robert included, would well understand why Barristan would feel duty-bound to remain with Aerys (and by extension Rhaegar) to such a late date. Barristan's wavering is not a deal-breaker. Hell, to a lot of people in universe (and in contrast to the likely social mores of the readers), the fact that Barristan had doubts about swapping sides speaks well of him. Those doubts meant he took his oaths seriously.

Second up, keeping Barristan on is a great look for Robert. Look here, everyone, Ser Barristan thinks that Robert's worth swearing to! The symbolic legitimisation of Robert's claim is important.

Third is the sheer skill and institutional knowledge. Ser Barristan is good at his job. He's not the swordsman Jaime is, but he's also no slouch. Plus protecting a king isn't just swordplay. As Jaime discovers once he gets back to King's Landing in ASoS, there's a people management component there. We also see in AGoT that Barristan is a part of the Small Council, and one of a whopping two people with the spine to say to Robert's face that assassinating a teenage girl is a bad thing to do. (Limited! Late! Still better than most!)

All in all, though, it's pretty clear to me that the case for keeping Ser Barristan in the Kingsguard and promoting him to Lord Commander of that Kingsguard is considerably stronger than the case for penalising him for having been cordial with Rhaegar.

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Jaime affc: He was wrong about that. "I have been despised by better men than you, Edmure." Jaime called for a guard. "Take his lordship back to his tower and see that he's fed."

Do you think he’s referring more about ned or blackfish?

I think there's a laundry list of people Jaime's thinking of. Just about anyone with anything approaching a code of honour despises Jaime, and he knows it. Don't forget Ser Barristan!

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Do you think Littlefinger is going to suffer the Harrenhall curse?

He's not getting out of the series alive, of that I am pretty sure. .99 recurring sure.

But is there a curse? And if there is, will Littlefinger's downfall be directly attributable to said curse? I suspect that will remain a lot more ambiguous. There's definitely authorial comeuppance in this series, but at the same time I don't think it's GRRM's style to lay down the magical laws quite so clearly.

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Aren't the consequences Robert imposes after the Greyjoy Rebellion absurdly, implausibly light? Sure Balon gives up his presumptive heir, and at least one other Ironborn house does as well (the Blacktydes), but other than that Balon not just keeps his head but the Greyjoys remain a Great House, with all of their lands and wealth intact, as do those who supported them.

"Wealth" might be pushing the term a bit. This is how Theon introduces the Iron Islands to us:

"The islands are stern and stony places, scant of comfort and bleak of prospect. Death is never far here, and life is mean and meager. Men spend their nights drinking ale and arguing over whose lot is worse, the fisherfolk who fight the sea or the farmers who try and scratch a crop from the poor thin soil. If truth be told, the miners have it worse than either, breaking their backs down in the dark, and for what? Iron, lead, tin, those are our treasures. Small wonder the ironmen of old turned to raiding." Theon I, ACoK

When the common people are that poor, the nobility's not going to be rolling in it either.

Similarly, "intact" is also pushing the term. Again from Theon:

When last he'd seen Lordsport, it had been a smoking wasteland, the skeletons of burnt longships and smashed galleys littering the stony shore like the bones of dead leviathans, the houses no more than broken walls and cold ashes. Theon I, ACoK

So - I would say that Robert and company rolled in and thoroughly stomped on Balon's rebellion. Afterwards, though:

Robert could be merciful. Ser Barristan was scarcely the only man he had pardoned. Grand Maester Pycelle, Varys the Spider, Lord Balon Greyjoy; each had been counted an enemy to Robert once, and each had been welcomed into friendship and allowed to retain honors and office for a pledge of fealty. So long as a man was brave and honest, Robert would treat him with all the honor and respect due a valiant enemy. Eddard XII, AGoT

Once Robert had trashed the Iron Islands, confiscated Balon's only remaining male heir, and extracted a pledge of fealty from Balon, he was essentially done. He didn't have the inclination (or the energy) to pursue a grudge. So he left matters there. It's entirely consistent with Robert's character.