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[typetwofun]

The Value of Changing Your Mind and How the Buffalo Bills Became Super Bowl Contenders

At this time of this writing at the conclusion of the 2020-2021 NFL season the Buffalo Bills are currently sitting at 7/1 odds to win the Super Bowl. These odds are the 3rd best odds of any team in the NFL. What makes this notable is that six months ago nobody expected the Bills to finish the season 13-3 and have a legitimate shot at winning the Super Bowl. Nobody with their head screwed on straight at least. When the season opened, the Bills were projected by many sports books to win around nine or ten games and were sitting around 25/1 odds to win the Super Bowl.

Oftentimes when an NFL team overperforms to this extent it’s because they have won a bunch of close games and got a few lucky bounces. But that’s not what has happened to these Bills. Down the stretch of the final six games, the Bills outscored their opponents by +117 points and three of those games were played against Pittsburgh, Miami, San Francisco who ranked in the top 12 in Football Outsider’s DVOA. They were not simply benefiting from a soft schedule.

As the playoffs begin, all signs are pointing to the Bills being a legitimately good football team. This may sound like good news and cause for optimism and great expectations in Western New York. But fans of this team know that despite how good things look, it’s best to expect the worst and hope for the best. But it also has many of us wondering, is this year different?

I have been a Bills fan for my entire life with various stages of fervor from idolizing the team who lost four consecutive super bowls in my early childhood, relative indifference in my adolescence, hyper passionate optimistic fan in my 20’s to the curmudgeonly grumpy pessimistic fan in my late 20’s and early 30’s.

I really love being a Bills fan. I have friendships that are largely built on our shared love for the team (hey Jake, David, and Joe). I frequently get together with friends to watch the team play with a full spread of wings and Labatt Blue. During football season I tend to have headphones on in the morning listening to a show from WGR, the local Buffalo sports radio station. At breaks at work I am oftentimes found scrolling through “Bills Twitter” to find out what’s the latest with the team. And I usually make it out to one or two games every season. I also try to make the pilgrimage to Orchard Park to watch the team in person and experience Bills tailgating.

The Drought

From 2000-2017 seasons the Bills and their fans suffered through missing the playoffs for 17 consecutive years. They could never pull it all together to field a legitimately good team. Despite teams like the Patriots, Steelers, and Seahawks exemplifying a formula of what good franchises do to deliver successful results on the field, the Bills always choose to try a different route.

Good teams like the Pats drafted QBs in the draft until they found their guy, the Bills have only drafted 3 quarterbacks since drafting Jim Kelly in 1983. The Seawhaks always seemed to know when to let players go and which players they had to keep to preserve cap space, the Bills were chronically signing bad contracts leaving them with the inability to secure any talent they did find. The Steelers have had three different Head Coaches since 1969, the Bills had a revolving door of coaches with a new unproven coach showing up every 2-4 years.

The results speak for themselves. In the years from 2000-2017 when the Bills experienced a playoff drought the team averaged 6.5 wins and 9.5 losses per year. Never good enough to make the playoffs but rarely bad enough to have a top draft pick.

The worst part about the Bills of the drought was the way they lost.  They always seemed to be good enough to give you enough hope to think they were on the right track only to lose in the most heartbreaking fashion possible. This recurring theme is so widely understood that ESPN made a commercial about how despite experience heartbreak over and over again, sports keep us believing.

You might be familiar with the Music City Miracle, but there are plenty of heartbreaking moments throughout the years. Here are a few of my personal favorites.

2004 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 17 - Bills lose to Pittsburgh's backups in the final week of the season and miss playoffs again.

Bills Cowboys on MNF in 2007 - The Bills blew an 8 point lead with less than 4 minutes to go after the Cowboys scored a TD and recovered an onsides kick.

Leodis McKelvin fumbles Kick Return on MNF vs the Patriots - With a 24-19 lead and two minutes to go, McKelvin fumbles the kickoff to hand the game over to the Pats.

2011 Bills Start 5-2 only to finish 6-10 and miss the playoffs

Doug Morrone Opts of Contract - The Bills finished 9-7 his final year with Kyle Orton as the QB. They were eliminated from playoff contention after a week 16 loss to an Oakland Raiders team who only won 3 games that season.

The Bills were so bad for so long, as a fan of the team you eventually became predisposed to expect the worst. This at least partially explains why the Bills tailgates are the way they are.

Enough is Enough

The Bills losing ways seemed to be coming to an end in 2017 when they snapped their playoff drought by way of a miraculous last minute play in a game they weren’t even playing in. They were led by Rookie Head Coach Sean McDermott and although they weren’t serious super bowl contenders like they are this year, they were doing something their predecessors couldn’t do for almost 20 years - make the playoffs.

These Bills weren’t all that different than the teams that came before them despite ending the drought. The team’s foundation was focused on its defense in a league that was dominated by offensive powerhouses. In the year they ended the drought, the team’s starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor didn’t have a single 300 yard passing game which is essentially the standard for a good passing game in the NFL. Comparatively, the league's leading passer that year, Tom Brady, had seven such games.

When the Bills drafted Quarterback Josh Allen in the top 10 of the 2018 draft, this was a clear signal the team was trying to rectify their abysmal offense. There were plenty of questions surrounding Allen’s viability as a starting QB coming into his rookie season. He would eventually start 12 games his rookie season and the Bills offense would finish 30th in the league in points per game and only won 6 games. In 2019 the offense would make marginal improvements to finish 23rd in the league in points per game. That season would end in another wildcard playoff loss largely due to the offense's inability to score points.

You might start seeing a trend...

In his first few seasons McDermott would talk about how the Bills played “Blue Collar Football” as if because the team was located in Buffalo they should play a more rugged version of the game that was all but proven to be less effective. Had he ever heard of the K-Gun? He also cited the weather being a reason for drafting a quarterback with a big arm. Was he aware that the team in Green Bay has a quarterback with a big arm that is used to throw the ball early and often and scored lots of points? It seemed like despite all the evidence to the contrary this new regime wasn’t interested in doing what the best teams did to win games.

I attended a Bills home game against the Washington Redskins in early November of last year. I remember a series where the Bills had a first and goal from somewhere around the Redskins 1-yard line. The Bills decided to run a play I always knew as a halfback dive three consecutive times. This play epitomizes old school thinking and is simply not the most effective way to score points in that part of the field. When they did indeed punch it in on the third attempt, I decided I had enough with this depression era style of offense and boo’d the play selection VERY loudly for a good 30 seconds (it probably seemed like longer to the poor patrons sitting next to me). Perhaps my antics were partially due to the copious amount of labatt blue light I had before the game, but I was sick and tired of watching this team dig their heels in and not embrace the modern style of play.

And that’s why the Bills opened the season at 25/1 odds to win the super bowl and win 9.5 games. The Bills did make a major upgrade at WR trading for Stefon Diggs, but other than that, the team was largely the same. Same Quarterback, same coaches, same skill position players. They have been lackluster for so long there was no reason for anyone to believe the Bills were going to become one of the best teams in the league now.

A New Hope

The Bills weren’t just good in 2020, the Bills were a Wagon. They started out hot with Josh Allen threw for 300 yards in week one only to top that and throw for 400 yards in week two. By the end of the season Allen would throw eight 300 yard passing games with 4,544 passing yards, 45 combined TDs and a whopping 8.5 AY/A. In his third as a starter, Allen went from middle of the pack starter at best to second team all pro. 

After finishing the previous three season seasons as the 27th, 30th, and 23rd in the league in points per game Josh Allen and the Bills finished with 31.3 point per game, good for 2nd best in the NFL. The Bills weren’t just scoring points either, they are blowing teams out. They ended the season with a point differential of +126 which was good enough for third best in the NFL.

It was happening right in front of my eyes, the team I had always wanted magically appeared seemingly out of nowhere. They were passing the ball all over the field, throwing on early downs, and taking calculated risks rooted in scoring points rather than surrendering the ball back to the other team via punting. According to NFL journalist and analytics champion Ben Baldwin, the Bills lost the least amount of win probability by punting out of any team in the NFL.

The Bills were beating good teams too. The Bills played the 11th most difficult schedule of any team in 2020 and the only playoff team to face a schedule of teams with higher than a .500 win percentage.

They also executed when it mattered most. The Bills led the league in 3rd down conversations at almost a 50% conversion rate. Green Bay and Kansas City were 2nd and 3rd behind the Bills. Good company to be in.

The 2020 Bills were not only good, but they were one of the most fun and exciting teams to watch in the NFL. They had creative play calling and made the right decisions at the right time. Smart yet sophisticated. I was used to watching other teams and marvel at their smarts and how they’re doing the exact right things, but I never expected to see this from the Bills. But here we are, this Bills team was making me feel things I never expected to feel and that’s confidence that they could make it back to the super bowl.

How Did They Do It?

The reality is the Bills did what so few football teams ever do and what so few of us ever do and evaluated their performance and decided something had to change. They changed their mind.

We’ll probably never know what made the coaching staff go from “Blue Collar Football” to asking “what the analytics say to do on fourth down”, but the willingness to admit what you are doing is wrong and change the game plan (literally) is something that should be admired.

This is inspiring to me because it’s innately human. We never want to admit we’re the problem but almost 100% of the time we are. What the Bills did this season also showcases that many times we have all the right pieces but in order to have the desired results we have to make a few small changes that can lead to dramatically different results. Like getting the salad instead of the fries, taking advantage of your company’s 401(k) matching plan, picking up a book instead of turning on Netflix. This stuff is a no brainer, costs $0 and doesn’t require exceptional talent or effort. It simply requires taking the time to evaluate how things are going and the courage to do the uncomfortable thing of making the adjustments. In this season of resolutions and reinventing ourselves I think we can all take a page out of the Bills playbook and find that the difference between having a mediocre 2019 and a year of excellence is just a few decisions away.

Will the Bills make it to the Super Bowl? If you look at the odds, probably not. The NFL playoffs are full of stories of the darlings of the regular season getting knocked off in less than dramatic fashion. Last year Baltimore was the top seed in the AFC and lost the first game they played. But what I do know is this team is playing as well or better than any other team right now and is in a position to make a deep run and maybe, just maybe win the whole damn thing.

[typetwofun]

Adventures in Learning with A Vintage Motorcycle

this post should take ~9 minutes to read

My first ride on a motorcycle on a public road was terrifying. After obtaining my license via a weekend class that took place entirely in a high school parking lot, I had purchased a Honda CB250 Nighthawk on Craigslist. Get License - check, purchase motorcycle - check. Next item on the list is to take this thing on the road...

During my maiden voyage I came face-to-face with the reality that these 2,000 pound death machines some people refer to as cars were trying to kill me at every turn. This was unsettling at first but after a couple miles I gained confidence and felt more comfortable maneuvering around my adversaries who seemed to have every intention of ending my life. I also started to have a lot of fun and understand the allure of the two-wheeler. Although I mainly purchased a motorcycle as an affordable way to get around Atlanta, I was beginning to get the idea that riding a motorcycle was going to now be a part of my life.

“When you let a motorcycle into your life you're changed forever.  The letters "MC" are stamped on your driver's license right next to your sex and height as if "motorcycle" was just another of your physical characteristics, or maybe a mental condition.”

"Season of the Bike" by Dave Karlotski

Fast Forward two years and I’m living in Brooklyn. I sold my Knighthawk before I moved and I was kicking around the idea of buying another motorcycle to allow myself some more freedom to explore NYC. In the year of learning how to ride in Atlanta I became attracted to vintage bikes. Every time I saw an old touring bike from the 60’s or 70’s I was envious and I had decided my next bike would be something from that era. After another period of scouring Craigslist and  a couple friends persistently coaxing me to get a bike, I became the owner of a burnt orange 1977 BMW R75/7.

I thought I was purchasing a classic motorcycle that would take me to the farthest reaches of the NYC metro area and beyond. I would get plenty of looks speeding around the city on this museum piece as old guys nodded their heads in approval. But what I actually purchased was more like a new puppy that constantly needed my attention. Purchasing this BMW began a two year crash course on the fundamentals of the /7 (pronounced “slash seven”) and the proper care and maintenance required to keep it on the road.

The reason I share this long back story is because I never intended to do significant work on my motorcycle. I might have romanced the thought of changing the oil and doing little projects here or there but I grossly underestimated the time investment becoming a useful mechanic requires. These series of fortunate or unfortunate events, depending on how you look at it, led me to buying a bike that was going to need a lot of work. I started off small projects like replacing the fuel lines and adjusted the timing which gave me the confidence to begin working on larger and larger projects. Eventually I was tearing the bike down to the engine block and more importantly putting it all back together correctly. As someone who lacks significant experience working on engines, this kind of undertaking required a great deal of effort and if I have gained anything while refurbishing this classic motorcycle, it is how to learn a new skill.

When Was The Last Time I Learned A New Skill?

Learning any new skill is especially difficult when you are quite literally getting your hands (and clothes) dirty and spending long hours of your precious weekend in the garage with nothing to show for it except frustration, fatigue, and an unquenchable thirst for cocktails. As time goes on you have fewer and fewer days filled with frustration and eventually have enough knowledge that you might be so bold to consider yourself “useful” which is a rather satisfying feeling.

When I sat back and thought about it I haven’t learned a completely new skill in a meaningful way since I graduated from college. Sure I have learned little things like how to shoot a rifle, brine a turkey and how to catch a wave on a surfboard. But learning how to tear apart an old engine and put it back together correctly is a rather large undertaking and seemed intimidating to an inexperienced mechanic.

Why Learn a New Skill, Anyways?

As I expressed earlier, my intention was never to learn how to rebuild old engines. When you leave the part of life where you quit asking “will this be on the test?” there does not seem to be a great incentive to learn new things other than to make more money or for leisure activities and enjoyment. This may be the prevailing wisdom, but through this process I have discovered there is quite a bit to be gained by doing my own motorcycle maintenance beyond having a bike that works (most of the time).

Confidence to Solve Other Problems - Demystifying the /7 has helped me gain confidence that I can most likely find a solution when confronted with other technical problems. Armed with an internet connection we are able to find an answer to many of the technical challenges life throws at us. Almost everything we encounter in our world is part of a system or is a product of some kind of process that we can figure out. Whether it’s how to play a Beatles song on a guitar or play a Beatles song from your phone in a rental car via the touch screen display while driving, the answer is out there and you can probably find it.

The Pleasure of Figuring Things Out - Nothing quite beats the dopamine hit after having a breakthrough on a problem you have been working on for hours or maybe even weeks. There have been times where I thought to myself that I need to sell my bike and get something more modern and reliable. Every time a problem made itself evident I hunkered down and attempted to fix it and up to this point I have been successful and finding the solution (knock on wood).

Oh, one more thing, the beer at the end of the day always tastes better after finding a solution to the day’s problem.

It’s Good to Be Uncomfortable - there were many times when I got to a point in a repair job and I became nearly paralyzed with doubt. What if I break this piece? What if when I’m done I realize I need to go back in and redo it? What if I do permanent damage to the bike? What if I get in over my head and I need to burden a friend with helping me or pay a mechanic? And on and on it goes.

I learned somewhere along the way that this unsettling feeling is actually where the magic happens. You are experiencing the fear of the unknown and the only way to rectify that is to figure it out. We have many great resources like YouTube, User Manuals and experts that we can reference but sometimes the only way out is through.

The more I experienced this sensation the more familiar I became with it and the less intimidating the fear of the unknown became. Every other time I was at a supposed dead end I found a way out. Especially with a low stakes hobbyist project, it’s not scary, it’s just part of the process.

Use Your Brain In A Different Way - Like most of you, I spend my work days in front of a computer. Computers are incredible and allow us to get many things done in a short amount of time, but after a long day in front of the screen, my brain also feels like a giant pile of mush. When I spend an afternoon in the garage I may be physically tired at the end of the day but my brain does not feel like it needs to shut down and watch TV for an hour or two before bed. The tangibility of your progress and the ability to physically deconstruct and later reconstruct something is quite rewarding.

Enjoying the Fruits of Your Labor - There is an indiescribale feeling when you begin the day with a machine that is not functioning properly or sometimes at all and ending the day riding that very machine with an understanding of what is happening beneath you to make you go. Similar feelings are closing your first sale in a business you started or presenting a dish you learned how to prepare at a dinner party.

How I learned

I was a lousy student when I was in school. For me, the studying techniques of rote memorization or sitting through lectures don’t usually deliver the desired results of truly understanding new information that I have been presented. I have found that I absorb information much better by watching someone demonstrate the proper way to do something and then I attempt to to try to replicate it. This style of learning lends itself much better to the hard sciences than for other disciplines such as history or sociology.

YouTube - It’s hard for me to imagine what it was like to fix motorcycles or an issue with any appliance before YouTube. The catalogue of high definition videos on any given topic never ceases to amaze me and some even provide enormous entertainment value (exhibit A and Exhibit B). Access to this information is perhaps humanity's greatest achievement (sorry wheel and alcohol). I have gained a new appreciation for YouTube’s utility throughout the rebuild of my bike and its applications which are seemingly limitless. There is no greater resource for learning how something should be done than having a more experienced human walk you through the process on demand for almost no cost.

Mentorship - YouTube and internet forums are great for what they are, but when you’re really stuck there is still nothing that replaces a more experienced human to help you get unstuck. I have had the good fortune of making friends with several hobbyist mechanics who are far more experienced and knowledgeable than I am. Sometimes you can get yourself 90% of the way there, but it takes a “teacher” to uncover what you’re missing or to think of it in a different way.

The money you can invest in mentorship or lessons will return enormous dividends whether you’re learning how to fix a machine, downhill ski, or get that handicap into single digits. Especially for those of us who work 40+ hours a week your free time is invaluable and paying for access to an expert is almost always worth it.

Long Form Articles - Before I dive into a new project I like to read an overview that somebody else has written to give myself an idea of what kind of fun surprises I may be in for. Youtube videos are great as are forums surrounding a specific question. But in order to fully wrap my head around certain concepts nothing beats a well written long form article by an expert.

For instance, I wish I read this article before purchasing my Airhead.

Trial and Error - Despite all the tools, resources and knowledge we are surrounding with there are some questions the internet does not have answered in a 12 minute HD video. There are also days when nobody picks up the phone or your buddies aren’t able to help you. And for such occasions you have no choice but to figure it out.

There are several episodes in my mind's eye where I was floundering with bleeding my brakes, reassembling the throttle grip drive, or adjusting the points gap and on try number 50 something clicked and it worked and I now magically know how to do these things for the next time around.

Wrapping Up

Learning how to rebuild this motorcycle has provided me with satisfaction and enjoyment that have added an enormous amount of joy to my life. Undertaking the rebuild was never my primary intention and more or less a fortuitous accident. As Dan Gilbert outlines in his book “Stumbling on Happiness” humans are usually pretty bad at forecasting and we are particularly bad at predicting what will make us happy. I guess it should be to no one's surprise that my love of fixing motorcycles was serendipitous.  

If there was one thing I would tell my 20 year old self what I should do differently it would be to try new things and learn more new skills. Preferably something you can really get lost in like cooking or woodworking. It makes your brain work in different ways and think about the world through a new perspective. You will meet interesting people whom you wouldn’t normally cross paths with and you will also have a lot of fun doing it.

I hope you find my experience interesting enough to go out and stumble upon your own project or hobby that will make your Saturday afternoons that much more incredible. 

Trust me, it makes the beer taste better at the end of the day.

A view of the piston after the cylinder has been removed

Carburators, valves, valve covers, push rods, and nuts and bolts in a somewhat organized manner after removal

After several hours of soaking, scrubbing, and scraping she looks good as new!

First big ride of the summer after a long winter in the garage.

[typetwofun]

How I Learned To Stop Worrying and Love The Quarantine

“I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself: ‘If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?’ And whenever the answer has been "No" for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something.”

That’s a quote from Steve Jobs that I have always particularly liked. I think the reason that I enjoy it so much is that it suggests that if life isn’t going the way you want, you have some degree of control to change it more to your liking. The first place my head goes when I hear that quote is work. We spend a lot of our waking hours either at work or thinking about work, so that has a lot to do with how much we enjoy each day. But on the other side of the coin, if your life is only focused on work, you’re also probably not going to be entirely thrilled if you found out today was your last day on earth.

During pre-quarantine life, if you weren't excited about your day of work ahead, you were at least able to look forward to trying that new restaurant that evening or meeting a good friend for a drink at your favorite bar or maybe just grabbing a cup of coffee at the cafe where they know your usual as you head into the office. It doesn’t have to be an opulent treat either. My good friend Austin and I used to visit our favorite neighborhood bar every Tuesday and that alone kept every Tuesday exciting.

In mid-March when most of the U.S. started shutting down many of us were hit with an existential crises. The weekly rituals, office culture, hobbies and social events that made our daily lives more enjoyable and interesting evaporated right in front of our eyes. Your Tuesday evening visit to the local watering hole, your friends and colleagues at work, or your runners club before work on Thursday all the sudden isn’t there and you now have a vacuum of time that needs to be filled.

When I realized that I now had an abundance of our most precious commodity, I had an opportunity to start doing some of the things that I had been putting off for months and in some cases years. This blog is a great example of something I had always thought would be a good idea, but I never made the time for it. Now I have several additional hours each evening making now the perfect time to start this project. Everyone has the books they’ve been meaning to read or the dishes they would like to cook but never do because your schedule’s too packed. But now things are different, I mean who’s not making sourdough bread right now?

I have found the key to finding joy during this quarantine is to fill the newly found time each day with something I truly enjoy. Although I never sat down and wrote a comprehensive list, I had a number of ideas floating around in my head on what I would do if I had more time in my day. Writing a blog was one, spending more time working on my motorcycle was another, read more is up there and the list goes on. As I started doing the things I didn’t have the time to pre quarantine, I also stumbled upon other activities I never really thought I would enjoy but serendipitously found to be my favorite part of the day. See below.

What I had floating around in my head but didn’t make the time for:

Write for pleasure - I started this blog with a goal of writing 1 post per month with the goal of improving my writing. This post makes me two for two so far ;-)

Grow a vegetable garden - I now have a space with a raised garden bed to plant some vegetables and flowers. I did a small garden two years ago, but last year I was training for a triathlon and didn’t have the time to tend to a garden, now I have plenty.

Saturday’s in the garage - I have spent several hours just about every Saturday in the garage finishing a big repair job and doing preseason maintenance. I can happily report after a complete top end rebuild my bike is running and ready for the season ahead.

Read more broadly - In quarantine I have read books spanning the History of NYC, Ski Touring in the North East, No Country for Old Men, and The Picture of Dorian Gray. Open to suggestions on what to read next.

Run - I have been suffering from plantar fasciitis for almost six months, but after using insoles, a bunch of weird stretches, and yoga before work a few times a week and after long runs I’m back running twice per week.

Activities I didn’t anticipate picking up in quarantine:

Discovering New TV Shows -  Cody Townsend's The Fifty , the Last Dance, and Working For the Weekend - I watched 1 or 2 episodes per day to elongate the enjoyment from each series.

Expanding my cocktail palate - 5p has become cocktail hour in our apartment. When I’ve had my third consecutive Zoom meeting of the afternoon, it’s a nice reward for finishing out the workday. I’ve been trying new cocktails and variations of cocktails I may have not previously enjoyed in an effort to keep it interesting. For instance, I never knew I liked Negornis before I discovered their secret ingredient - carpano antica.

I have also really enjoyed the Scofflaw (pictured below) and Whiskey Sours.

Even though I have found a lot of reasons to enjoy the past ten weeks in quarantine, I cannot wait to go back to the way life was before this virus dominated nearly every aspect of my waking hours. Non-stop video conferences and digital communication at work followed by zoom and phone call with friends in the evening can really wear me down. Even the cognitive load that comes along with every precaution we take to avoid getting infected seems to be taking its toll.

I also realize that I am incredibly privileged in several ways. I am employed, working from home, and quite busy at work which not only supplies adequate funds to stay comfortable during the quarantine but also means I don’t have to go out into the uncertain world every day. I know many of us are either out of work or must risk exposure to the virus which must also be incredibly stressful. Some people may also be quarantined in isolation which sounds borderline tortuous for more than a couple of days.  And most of all, the first responders who are put into harm's way every day they show up to work, I have a tremendous amount of respect for you and our society is in a great debt for your service.

Even though the past couple of months have been tough for everyone and it doesn’t appear that we’re going to live in a world where the virus is contained any time soon, we don’t have much of a choice other than to find a way to make the most of it. The philosopher Epictetus once said, “The chief task in life is simply this: to identify and separate matters so that I can say clearly to myself which are externals not under my control, and which have to do with the choices I actually control.” So, while we can’t control our state’s position on opening back up or how many new cases are reported in our city, we can certainly take advantage of newfound time that we have to ourselves. You have been gifted life’s most precious commodity, what are you going to do with it?

I guess what I’m trying to say is, when life hands you lemons you should make a cocktail.

[typetwofun]

The Future As A Result of Coronavirus

This post should take you roughly 13 minutes to read

A little over 78 years ago America was attacked by the Japanese in perhaps the most monumental military strike in modern history. The results of the attack were catastrophic for the Americans: 2,335 young men and women lost their lives, 1,143 more were wounded, 4 battleships were sunk and over a dozen more were damaged. In the ensuing world war the United States lost over 400,000 lives and the national debt climbed from $42 billion to $269 billion.

The attack caught the Americans completely flat footed and entered us into the second world war before the country was fully prepared to do so. Hindsight being 20/20, we can play MMQB and say that the U.S. should have been better prepared for such an attack given Pearl Harbor’s vulnerability and its strategic position in the pacific. It was no secret that Japan was taking over the Pacific rim as it needed resources to fuel its war machine. When the Americans established an oil and gasoline embargo on Japan in 1941 leaving them with less than two years of reserve supplies it was only a matter of time before Japan would do something desperate.

Despite our Commander in Chief's dubious leadership qualities and his lack of ability to unify the country, I believe in the future the way we view the American response to Coronavirus will be similar to how we now view the American response to the attack on Pearl Harbor and the ensuing World War.  We were proven to be greatly underprepared for both catastrophic events which caused extraordinary damage, significant losses of life and economic damage that will take years to recover from. The only difference is 45 may not provide a speech that resonates throughout the ages like FDR did.

The reason I reference this history lesson is that I hope we can take a moment and think about a few lessons both of these events have taught us:

First off, the United States has always found a way to overcome the obstacle in question despite significant odds and no matter how grim the prospects look. This isn’t the first pandemic we have ever faced and it certainly won’t be the last.

Secondly, we also learn a great deal from adversity and come out the other side with a new perspective and brilliant understanding of previous errors in judgment. The focus on mobilizing for war ultimately led to the invention of synthetic oil & rubber, radar, jet engines, helicopters, and aircraft with pressurized cabins. Our culture has been yielding the dividends for these inventions for nearly 80 years now.

I hope to share a few predictions I have of the innovation and learning I believe will happen as a result of the Coronavirus pandemic and use it as a springboard for discussion. These projections are the way I envision certain innovations developing post pandemic. As with everything there are pros and cons, I will try to build counterarguments and the downside of each thought. But the main focus of this article is mostly about potential upside and there are only so many hours in a day.

I’m also sure in a few years I’ll look back and have the good fortune to observe how off base I was and what an idiot I am. But hey, at least we’re learning.

Oh - one more thing. These are merely opinions and predictions that might spur on conversations of what our world might look like after this is all over with. Please don’t take any of this personally, this isn’t that serious.

Ok, let’s dive in.

Remote Learning Demonstrates It’s Ready for the Big Time

The global pandemic has forced many of the world's learning institutions to switch from an in-person educational model to a remote learning model quite literally overnight. The switch has been an interesting case study and in the coming months and years we will learn of its impacts both positive and negative. Despite being drastically underprepared, our educators are making do with what they have and adapting to continue teaching despite the less than desirable circumstances.

This new learning format may not actually be a great challenge to our students given the malleability of a children’s mind and their sponge-like ability to learn new concepts. Their teachers however may have greater difficulty in adapting. Our public school teachers are trained in how to deliver information in person and how to adapt their curriculum to meet the needs of different learning styles. Our nation’s education institutions also aren’t equipped with the technical infrastructure to pull off this remote learning switch.

Up, Up, Upside

Remote learning has the potential to provide incredible utility to our global population. While I don’t foresee or advocate for public schools moving to an entirely remote model, I do think it can be a wonderful compliment for our nation's public schools and a more realistic alternative for secondary education that is both more cost effective and accessible.

With access to remote learning, students are not limited to the material that is taught by the educators at their high school, university, or trade school. A 10th grader in West Virginia may now have access to advanced Spanish, classic american art or the basics of fluid dynamics education she was previously not exposed to simply because of where she was born. Or a 10th grader in Queens may not have the help he needs on his homework because both of his parents work past his bedtime, but he will now have access to a tutor to prepare for his algebra exam he needs to pass in order to earn his High School Diploma.

One of the greatest challenges underrepresented groups face today is the lack of access to a good education, let alone the best education. The scale of remote learning will allow our best teachers and educators the ability to deliver information to more students across the country and even the globe. Remote learning provides the ability for lectures and workshops to be distributed to students who would not previously have access to such material because of their location or socioeconomic standing.

I have the opportunity to work with some incredibly talented software engineers that deliver training and enablement on the subject of how modern enterprise software should be built in the cloud. Previously a customer had to have both the budget and the engineering talent to validate bringing our engineers on site and this greatly limited the number of students we could reach. Due to the restrictions from the virus we have been forced to pivot to a remote delivery model which has afforded us the opportunity to reach people who previously couldn’t access the training. It remains to be seen if the quality of our enablement is sacrificed, but I believe there is a balance here where a minor sacrifice in effectiveness is worth it if we can reach more people.

Downside

The most concerning aspect of remote learning as it stands today is that students of lower socioeconomic status may not have the appropriate technology to participate in remote learning at home. They are also less likely to have the same level of support from their parents or guardians as their peers in middle and upper class families. This challenge may further exacerbate the gap in income disparity we are currently wrestling with on a national and global level. If remote learning is to be adopted on a more permanent basis in our nation's public schools, we will have to figure out how to ensure all children have access to proper technology and are equipped with a stable internet connection at home.

Attendance for remote learning during the pandemic is hard to track and you can bet your bottom dollar that some students will find a way to use any lack of in person accountability to their advantage. Students from underserved communities as well as kids who are bullied and students with learning disabilities who are more likely to skip school in the current model will have an easier time playing hooky or not paying attention in remote classes.

A drawback my team is dealing with in delivering remote software development enablement is a drastic reduction in the ability to read the room through the screen. It is much more difficult to identify who’s paying attention or who’s struggling with the concepts and who’s at the head of the class.

But why now?

One major obstacle of effective online learning is the lack of connectivity. Internet speeds and useful remote communication tools like Zoom and Slack are fully baked products ready for primetime to host lectures, group projects and one on one tutoring. This is a critical piece of the puzzle that is going through a major litmus test this past month as public schools were forced to switch from an in person teacher led training to virtualized remote training environments essentially overnight.

Orthogonal thoughts on remote education

Inflation of the cost of higher education is a real problem in this country and making secondary degrees cost prohibitive for many Americans. The rising cost of education is leaving many of our young adults with a debt burden that alters their life decisions

Ideas of how to combat this issue such as nationalizing higher education have been discussed at great length. Some states like the one in which I live have already begun to implement such programs. Although this reduces the cost of education for the individual, does it actually lower the cost of education?

We’re not going to tackle that in this post, but I do think organizations like Kahn Academy and Codecadamy have demonstrated how powerful remote learning can be. Imagine if we harnessed this progress and adapted it to our formal education programs.

Possible Near Term Outcomes

Children derive so much utility spending time with their peers at school and I cannot imagine depriving any young person of that necessary social interaction. However I can foresee a mixed model where students enroll in remote classes for special classes not offered at their campus, from home when they are sick, or if another emergency occurs.

Higher education will continue to be disrupted and paying top dollar for a meal plan and a dorm room is no longer required to receive quality secondary education. Leading tech companies are already eliminating the requisite Bachelors/Master’s degree check box for all employees. I expect the rest of the rest of the world to follow suit.

Remote Work Becomes the New Normal

When I worked at Apple Nearly 8 years ago now, I started off as a sales rep in the retail store selling Macs and iPhones. Eventually I got promoted to a B2B sales role which involved me getting an iMac and a phone in a little office in the back of the store. When I was interviewing for the job one of the managers asked me if I knew this job wasn’t just surfing the internet all day in the back office.

That question seems kind of ridiculous to me today and I think the push back a lot of employers have with remote working employees will feel similarly in 10 years. Yes I have more than a few non work tabs going on my Mac at all times, but that doesn’t mean my work is suffering or that’s all I’m doing.

Prior to this pandemic it wasn’t unusual for me to work from home somewhere between 1-3 days per week. This is commonplace for many of my peers, many of whom are very high performing professionals. A lot of people I work with almost exclusively work from home and some don’t even live in a city where my employer has an office. Which has me wondering, if technology companies can work from home effectively, why can’t other organizations?

FWIW I do not buy the argument that people in tech are more disciplined or more trustworthy than workers in other disciplines, I think we just have more practice.

Work productivity tools like Zoom and Slack are so seamless in their integration to our workday already that making the jump to fully remote really isn’t that difficult for most organizations to imagine.

Enter Coronavirus and most of the world seems to be handling the new change quite well. Long term the answer probably lies somewhere between a 100% remote staff like my buddies at Tackle.io and the 40 hour per work week in a physical office. There is too much utility gained from in person meetings and social engagement with our colleagues to go entirely remote. Like education, a hybrid scenario where office space shrinks and employees are assigned 2-3 days to come in to have 1:1’s with their boss, customer meetings, or team get together.

Employee Benefits

Employees benefit greatly from the flexibility to work from home a few days per week. It affords greater flexibility to do chores or errands, easily pick up kids from school, work remotely to tack on a few extra days of travel or on a vacation. Given that the average American spends nearly an hour commuting (almost 8% of waking hours) that’s a lot of extra time added back into your day.

Employer Benefits

The benefits for the organization might not be quite as obvious and there are probably plenty of solid counter arguments, but here it goes: If a majority of your staff was coming in 2-3 days per week you could reduce the amount of office space you need to rent thus lowering your opex. Employee flexibility to work from home will reduce the need for employees calling out sick or for personal reasons. Especially after this global event, the tolerance for people coughing and sneezing in the office will hopefully be lower. Parents who can be home with their kids more often will want to work for companies with flexible work environments. If you have this policy you will attract those people.

Air Travel Disrupted

Do you remember flying before 9/11? I don’t. But I would imagine the impact of this pandemic will force a major overhaul of the way we are screened before hopping on our next flight. I don’t have a good idea of when I expect to fly again, but let’s just say it won’t be until July or August of this year. I would be surprised if the next time I fly I do not have my temperature taken before heading through TSA.

If TSA starts to restrict flying privileges to people registering a fever this will be a major change in the way we travel. If you are told you can’t catch that flight to the Bahamas because you have a fever you will certainly hate it, but this change might help reduce the impact of future infectious diseases.

Doctor-As-A-Service Becomes The New Default

Once upon a time when you were sick the Doctor came to you to make a house call. That kind of service sounds incredible to me because I hate visiting the doctor’s office. For one, that’s where the other sick people are congregated, and I don’t want to be anywhere near that huddled mass. Secondly, it’s one of the greatest bureaucratic tar pits one can get stuck in and just an overall black hole of personal time and energy. Online doctor appointments have shown its usefulness more and more in this time of Coronavirus and I truly hope it is a trend that will stay.

The concept of telemedicine is not a new one. In fact, it’s a lot more widely used than I had realized. My fiancé shared how she has leveraged a remote doctor for several non urgent medical needs in the not too distant past. I recently logged into my medical insurers website and the landing page presented me with two options: “Select Primary Care Provider” and “Connect with a Doctor Online”. Next time I need to visit the doc for something other than my annual checkup, I know I’m going to do a virtual doctor’s visit.

The main utility the teladoc provides is whether or not you should seek in-person medical attention, or can it wait until tomorrow. Additionally, if you need to visit a doctor in person to seek further diagnosis if you should visit the ER or you could just go to the neighborhood urgent care? The National Center for Biotechnology Information estimates that between 13.7 and 27.1 percent of all emergency department visits could be treated at either an urgent care or retail clinic with a potential cost savings of approximately $4.4 billion annually to boot. Imagine the ER with just 13% fewer patients in the waiting room...

Delivery services like DoorDash are now offering pharmacy deliveries so if you’re sick, not only can you visit the doctor from your home but you might also be able to avoid visiting the pharmacy. This kind of service could be quite impactful in preventing future pandemics.

TL;DR

For the most part, I’m very bullish in the future of humanity and more narrowly the USA post-Coronavirus. We have always found a way to take difficult situations and improve them. We are also not perfect and will probably make lots of mistakes coming out of this, but given the relatively low fatality rate of Coronavirus, I believe we will learn from this and be much better off because of it.

Thanks and stay safe.