#documenting estimating assumptions

[asestimationsconsultants]

Top Tips for Producing Accurate Electrical Estimates

Producing accurate electrical estimates is essential for contractors aiming to submit competitive bids and successfully manage project budgets. Careful planning, attention to detail, and the right tools can significantly improve estimate quality. Here are key tips to help achieve accurate electrical estimates.

Thoroughly Review Project Documents

Start by carefully examining all available project documents including blueprints, electrical drawings, and specifications. Understanding the full scope and details ensures no materials or work items are missed. Clarify any ambiguous or incomplete information with designers or clients before beginning the estimate.

Use Digital Takeoff Tools

Digital takeoff software allows precise measurement and quantification of materials directly from electronic plans. Using these tools reduces manual errors and speeds up the process compared to traditional paper takeoffs. Accurate quantity takeoffs form the foundation of a reliable estimate.

Keep Pricing Data Updated

Material costs and labor rates frequently fluctuate due to market conditions. Regularly update pricing databases by consulting suppliers or using real-time industry resources. Accurate current pricing helps prevent cost overruns and ensures your bids reflect true market conditions.

Adjust Labor Units for Project Conditions

Standard labor units estimate time needed for installation under typical conditions. However, factors such as site accessibility, complexity, crew experience, and project schedule impact actual labor requirements. Adjust labor hours accordingly to reflect these realities.

Include Indirect and Miscellaneous Costs

Don’t overlook indirect costs such as equipment rentals, permits, testing, cleanup, and project management time. Including these expenses ensures your estimate reflects the total project cost and helps avoid surprises later.

Collaborate with Field Teams

Consult with electricians and project managers to validate labor productivity assumptions and identify potential challenges. Their practical insights can help refine estimates and improve accuracy.

Review and Verify Estimates

Double-check all calculations and quantities. Have a second estimator or project manager review the estimate to catch mistakes or omissions. Peer review is a valuable quality control step.

Document Assumptions Clearly

Maintain clear documentation of all assumptions made during estimating, such as productivity rates, pricing sources, and scope interpretations. This documentation supports transparency and helps explain estimates to clients or internal teams.

Stay Informed on Codes and Regulations

Electrical codes and standards change periodically. Staying current ensures your estimates incorporate compliance costs and avoid costly rework due to nonconformance.

Invest in Ongoing Training and Software Updates

Regular training for estimators on best practices and new technologies, along with keeping estimating software updated, contributes to consistent estimate quality.

FAQs

How often should I update labor and material pricing? Ideally, update pricing at least quarterly or whenever there are significant market changes to maintain estimate accuracy.

What is the biggest cause of inaccurate electrical estimates? Incomplete project documentation and failure to adjust for site-specific conditions often lead to inaccurate estimates.

Can software alone guarantee accurate estimates? Software is a powerful tool but accuracy depends on quality data input and estimator expertise.

How detailed should an electrical estimate be? The level of detail depends on project size and client requirements but should always cover all major materials, labor, indirect costs, and contingencies.

Conclusion

Producing accurate electrical estimates requires a combination of detailed review, precise measurement, realistic labor evaluation, and ongoing collaboration. Following these tips can improve your estimating process and contribute to successful project outcomes.

[komsomolka]

The mythology of Red Army mass rapes in Berlin (and elsewhere throughout Germany) was slow to development in the post-WWII anti-Soviet climate. Even in 1945, as the Soviets and US collaborated to secure and rebuild a defeated Germany, Western generated rumours were being spread of the Red Army committing between 20,000 and 150,000 rapes throughout Germany (not just Berlin). As there was no documented evidence surrounding these rumours, no mainstream historian took them seriously (although the Western far-right ideologues continued to espouse Goebbels’ ahistorical ramblings). This changed with the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. In 1992, two (bourgeois) German feminists – named , Helke Zander and Barbara Yor – published a book entitled ‘Liberators and Liberated’, within which they ahistorically stated that the Red Army had committed 2 million rapes throughout Germany during the closing months of WWII. This was a dramatic reworking of Goebbels’ main anti-Soviet idea, and a massive increase in supposed ‘victims’, but a logical assumption of how these ‘authors’ arrived at this number reveals the fallacy of their argument. This incorrect number was arrived at using the following flawed methodology. Zander and Yor focused on a single Berlin Hospital for the years 1945-1946, and assessed the births that occurred there. For both years it was reported that around 500 babies were born respectively, with 15-20 fathers being recorded as ‘Russian’. In two or three cases it was reported that the pregnancy was caused by rape. These two ‘authors’ then ignored the fact that the vast majority of pregnancies were consensual, and assumed that ALL were the product of rape. They then presented Goebbels’ Nazi German propaganda of the Red Army raping all German women between the ages of 8-80 years, and concocted the arbitrary figure of ‘2 million’ as an ‘estimate’ of supposed rapes committed throughout the Soviet occupied areas of Germany. (These two ‘authors’, incidentally, remain ‘silent’ about the well documented rapes carried-out in Germany by US and British troops). However, even after this highly unreliable book was published, the idea of ‘2 million’ rapes did not gain much traction until the British historian Anthony Beevor published his ‘Fall of Berlin’ in 2002, within which he repeats without question the research of Zander and Yor, and perpetuates the anti-Soviet rhetoric of Goebbels’ Nazi German propaganda. This is the history behind how the Red Army was misrepresented by Nazi Germany and modern German and British revisionist ‘historians’ sympathetic to the political rightwing.

Since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, German people have been tired of having to repent for the holocaust and destruction they brought to the world during the 1930’s and 1940’s. They have found solace in a type of fiction made fact, that demonises the USSR and equates Stalin with Hitler. This alternative history has gained a certain credence through the decisions of endorsement made by various European organisations, and of course, the European Parliament. Coupled with the US anti-Soviet (and now ‘anti-Russian’) position, the burden of ‘guilt’ for the appalling crimes of WWII is being shifted from Germany to Russia. An attempt is being made to make the Russian people take the blame for the crimes committed by the Nazi German regime. People like Zander, Yor and Beevor are pursuing a typical Western bias against Russia and against Soviet history. This may be viewed as a form of anti-Slavic racism. [...] Considering the crimes committed by the Nazi Germans within the USSR, the defeated German citizens were treated very well. Did rapes happen? Yes – but on a very small-scale. This was considered a highly ‘immoral’ crime within the Red Army, with those responsible often being tried and executed, but the incidence was very low, certainly far lower than the rapes committed by US or British troops in Germany. [...]

Front commanders were responsible for the ideological education of the Red Army soldiers, although guidance was also often issued by the Soviet Government. The point is that leaflets and lectures were given explaining that the German working class people needed to be liberated from the bourgeois fascist Nazi regime, and that it was the Nazi elite themselves that were ultimately responsible, and not the ordinary German people. It was made clear to every Red Army soldier that it was highly expected that sections of the German population might well support the Soviets, and that everything possible must be done to facilitate this eventuality. Regardless of official communiques from the Soviet Government in Moscow – front commanders had to strictly follow the ‘internationalist’ ideology of Marxist-Leninism. What the West has to ignore when propagating the ‘mass rape’ lies about the Red Army, is the numerous reports from former German soldiers who stated clearly how well-behaved the Soviet soldiers were, particularly toward the German children. Yes – it is reported that within a number of political lectures a certain portion of the Soviet soldiers ‘questioned’ the orders to be ‘kind’, virtually all Red Army soldiers did follow these directions (with the exception of a few). This is remarkable considering the death and destruction caused in the USSR by the Hitlerite forces. [...]

What is little known today, is how German civilians fled in terror from the British and US Armies that advanced into Western Germany. Western atrocities against the German population is a subject for another topic – but the idea that Germans ‘instinctively’ headed to the Western Allies is a myth. Soviet troops treated German women (and girls) with respect and did not even visit prostitutes (an act looked down upon by the Soviet officers). German civilians often arrived in the Soviet Zone of Occupation with tales of all kinds of abuse suffered at the hands of the Western Allies. Evidence suggests that US soldiers carried ‘gang rapes’ of German girls and women – usually accompanied by much violence. The US High Command turned a blind eye to these mass rapes, and would only occasionally punish a ‘Black’ soldier – despite most US rapes perpetuated by ‘White’ Americans. [...]

What these distorters of history continuously omit is the truly horrific fate of Soviet women and the mass rape and abuse that they suffered at the hands of Nazi German troops and other Axis forces. It is the suffering of Soviet women that is being written-out of history, being replaced by the myth of the suffering of Nazi German women. This is exactly the result that Joseph Goebbels wanted and expected through his basic manipulation techniques. Black becomes white, up becomes down, and good becomes bad, etc. [...]

This all hinges on the Soviet Victory on May 9th, 1945, over the forces of Nazi German fascism. This victory by the Red Army had and continues to have immense historical impact upon world history. The Red Army brought men and women together from all over the Soviet Union and Russia, and served as a world-wide anti-fascist inspiration. The Nazi Germans tried to stop the Red Army on every level (including the use of anti-Soviet propaganda) but this rightwing effort failed. Where Goebbels has been successful is that his distorted thinking has been kept alive and developed by the US and its European Allies between 1945 and the present day. Not only did the USSR build a progressive Socialist society, but its victory over Nazi German fascism proved the superiority of its socio-economic structure even though warfare was not the primary focus of its existence. Building a peaceful world premised upon scientific development was the true purpose of the Soviet regime, but as these exposed the Western, capitalist system as being inherently inferior and of no developmental use for the working class, the enemies of Socialism must attack and destroy the true purpose of the USSR and replace it with a degenerate mirage. [...]

Canadian author named James Bacque published a book entitled ‘Other Losses’, which argued that around 1 million Germans ‘starved’ to death in relocation camps in the US Zone of Occupation. Although his work was well researched, factual and conveyed real history, the Western academic community turned on Bacque and attempted to discredit his work because it contradicted the preferred US Cold War disinformation story of the Red Army being the bad guys.

[orcinus-veterinarius]

How old really was granny? Google keeps showing me peta shit saying she was over 100

She was more likely between 65-80 years old, based of fatty acid analysis of a biopsy sample. Still impressively old, and significantly longer than many other female orcas.

The “105-years-old” factoid came from the outdated assumption that Granny’s close companion, J1 “Ruffles,” was her adult son. They were first photographed together in the 1970s, when both were adults. However, DNA later revealed the two were not mother and son.

No orca has ever been documented to live 100 years. It is certainly possible—we simply haven’t been studying them long enough to follow an individual from birth to death over the course of a century. However, there have been enough individuals tracked until their deaths in their 40s-60s to know that, if it is possible for them to reach 100, it’s exceedingly rare. L25 “Ocean Sun” is presumed (though not proven) to be in her late 90s, and she is over 40 years older than the second oldest living Southern Resident. These ancient individuals are exceptional. And that means they’re outliers, and should not be included in statistical analysis.

But 105 years sounds a lot cooler than 80 (or 65), so that’s why it’s still brought up a lot. Google AI summary, which is as far as most people read unfortunately, also lists her age as 105, even if the very first paragraph of her Wikipedia article explains the 65-80 year estimate is the more accurate one.

[nostalgebraist]

So, about this new "AI 2027" report...

I have not read the whole thing in detail, but my immediate reaction is kind of like what I said about "Bio Anchors" a while back.

Like Bio Anchors – and like a lot of OpenPhil reports for that matter – the AI 2027 report is mainly a very complex estimation exercise.

It takes a certain way of modeling things as a given, and then does a huge amount of legwork to fill in the many numeric constants in an elaborate model of that kind, with questions like "is this actually a reasonable model?" and "what are the load-bearing assumptions here?" covered as a sort of afterthought.

For instance, the report predicts a type of automated R&D feedback loop often referred to a "software intelligence explosion" or a "software-only singularity." There has been a lot of debate over the plausibility of this idea – see Eth and Davidson here for the "plausible" case, and Erdil and Barnett here for the "implausible" case, which in turn got a response from Davidson here. That's just a sampling of very recent entries in this debate, there's plenty more where that came from.

Notably, I don't think "AI 2027" is attempting to participate in this debate. It contains a brief "Addressing Common Objections" section at the end of the relevant appendix, but it's very clear (among other things, simply from the relative quantity of text spent on one thing versus another) that the "AI 2027" authors are not really trying to change the minds of "software intelligence explosion" skeptics. That's not the point of their work – the point is making all these detailed estimates about what such a thing would involve, if indeed it happens.

And the same holds for the rest of their (many) modeling assumptions. They're not trying to convince you about the model, they're just estimating its parameters.

But, as with Bio Anchors, the load-bearing modeling assumptions get you most of the way to the conclusion. So, despite the name, "AI 2027" isn't really trying to convince you that super-powerful AI is coming within the decade.

If you don't already expect that, you're not going to get much value out of these fiddly estimation details, because (under your view) there are still-unresolved questions – like "is a software intelligence explosion plausible?" – whose answers have dramatically more leverage over your expectations than facts like "one of the parameters in one of the sub-sub-compartments of their model is lognormally distributed with 80% CI 0.3 to 7.5."

---

Maybe this is obvious, I dunno? I've just seen some reactions where people express confusion because the whole picture seems unconvincing and under-motivated to them, and I guess I'm trying to explain what I think is going on.

And I'm also worried – as always with this stuff – that there are some people who will look at all those pages and pages of fancy numbers, and think "wow! this sounds crazy but I can't argue with Serious Expert Research™," and end up getting convinced even though the document isn't really trying to convince them in the first place.

---

Now, if you do buy all the assumptions of the model, then yes, I guess this seems like a valuable exercise. If you are literally Daniel Kokotajlo, and hence believe in all the kind of stuff that Daniel Kokotajlo believes, then it makes sense to do all this legwork to "draw in the fine details" of that high-level view. And yeah, if you think the End Times are probably coming in a few years (but you might be able to do something about that at the margins), then you probably do want to get very precise about exactly how much time you have left, and when it will become too late for this or that avenue for change.

(Note that while I don't agree with him about this stuff, I do respect Kokotajlo a lot! I mean, you gotta hand it to him... not only did he predict what we now call the "Gen AI boom" with eerie accuracy way back in 2021, he was also a whistleblower who refused to sign OpenAI's absurd you-can't-talk-about-the-fact-that-you-can't-talk-about-it non-disparagement agreement, thereby bringing it into public view at last.)

But, in short, this report doesn't really touch on the reasons I disagree with short timelines. It doesn't really engage with my main objections, nor is it trying to do so. If you don't already expect "AI" in "2027" then "AI 2027" is not going to change your view.

[genericpuff]

Hii!! I wanted to ask more or less at what point in time does LR take place? We obviously see Dionysus is here and I’m going to assume some other myths and stories will have been taken place before LR while some will happen afterwards(maybe like the Iliad and all that).

Though I can't give a specific date for when these events happen (because a lot of myths are rather ambiguous in their relativity to each other in terms of time periods) LR does still take place relatively early on compared to other myths, as it will inevitably showcase Kore's story in becoming Queen of the Underworld and the creation of the seasons, and she goes on to play key roles in other myths that would follow, including The Iliad and the tale of Orpheus and Eurydice.

I would say, to give my best estimation as to where LR would fall specifically on any sort of perceived "timeline"... the present events of LR are closer to the Neolithic era than the Bronze Age/"Heroic Age" (i.e. the age of mortal heroes such as the Argonauts and Achilles/Odysseus/etc.) but there's still a considerable gap of time between saaaay Kore's birth and the Titanomachy, and an even bigger gap between her ascension to the Underworld throne and the Trojan War. Not really in the middle, necessarily, but roughly like this, give or take a few centuries here and there haha:

And yes, this is something I'm pretty much constantly considering while plotting out the story haha I basically always keep both the Titanomachy and the Trojan War specifically in mind as the "control points", as most myths usually happen between the two (and any that happen after the Trojan War often involve gods or mortals who were involved in the war or were the next generation following).

Overall, many myths that could be adapted into the tale of Kore and Hades within LR just wouldn't work because they happen either right before the Trojan War (during the era of the Argonauts) or directly after.

Obviously this isn't a perfect method by any means, not just because there are always bound to be some inconsistencies when it comes to interpreting the "timeline" of Greek myth, but because many of the original myths themselves are often up for debate as to when exactly they would have happened, based on whatever limited resources we have. After all, Homer himself (if he even existed) was writing down stories that were already being told for who knows how many generations that came before him. Just like how the modern era influences how these myths are retold, so too were the myths back then being re-interpreted for new audiences and generations.

And that's not even getting into the complexity of "which myths were documenting literal events and which ones were just metaphors that earned new meaning over time." So even the Trojan War isn't a foolproof control point because it could have very well just been a fairy tale told to motivate warriors and soldiers. Last I checked, scholars can still only give their best guess LMAO

All of that, of course, is just my own two cents on the "timeline" of Greek myth and how it pertains to LR specifically as a transformative fan work. I try to loosely stick to what I can glean of a "timeline" for the sake of keeping LR's story functional, and when it comes right down to it, it's not going to be tackling as many myths as LO, instead opting to focus in on Kore and Hades and Demeter as the central characters. Considering how many myths happened after Persephone became Queen, you should hopefully be able to approach it with the assumption of "this story happens centuries after the Titanomachy but relatively early in the age of mortals before all the badass hero stuff happened" 😅😆

That said, at the end of the day, we're operating through our own logic of what we interpret, because while there are eras that are cleanly divided by political movements and wars of the time, the myths themselves as we often know them are still based on the poetic interpretations that survived. It makes for a fun challenge, especially when it comes to the overall "mixing pot" of Ancient Greece as a culture, influenced not only by Rome, but Egypt and Mesopotamia as well, among many others.

Still, I hope that helps at least give you somewhat of a vague idea of where Kore and Hades currently are in the "timeline"! Or whatever we wanna call it LMAO

[evidence-based-activism]

Sorry if this is not the kind of ask you want to get but several people in this post argued about the benefit of legalizing prostitution and it sounds very convincing? What do you think? https://www.tumblr.com/prismatic-bell/757101438415601664/i-still-remember-learning-the-following-factoid?source=share

Hi! This is exactly the sort of ask I like to get!

So, I think the reason why this sounds convincing is because they are partially correct. However, the third individual is wrong on a very crucial part, which I will explain.

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Policies regarding prostitution range from full legalization (all related activities are legal and incorporated into the legitimate economy) to full criminalization (all related activities are illegal and exist only in an underground economy).

The first thing to understand – and what the individuals in that post got right – is that full criminalization does not help the people trapped in either "voluntary" prostitution or sex trafficking victims. This stakeholder report [1] discusses various issues that result for human trafficking victims (including children) as a result of full criminalization. This is focused on trafficking victims, rather than all prostitutes, but in truth, the line between these categories is blurry at best. (There certainly isn't a reliable way for the legal system to differentiate between them.)

So, in this way, the first two individuals are correct. Arresting women and children for "selling sex" does significant harm. It also doesn't appear to be effective at reducing trafficking, child sexual exploitation, or exploitation by pimps.

---

However, each poster appears to be making the leap that because full criminalization is harmful to the vulnerable women and children in prostitution, the best alternative is full legalization or decriminalization. (To clarify between these two, consider the case of marijuana: legalized marijuana often entails taxation and other governmental involvement in the industry whereas decriminalization means it is still illegal remains but the government doesn't actively pursue people involved with marijuana.)

This assumption is erroneous.

There is well documented evidence that full legalization/decriminalization does not significantly reduce (and may increase) harm to prostituted women and children.

The alternative option, is a partial decriminalization. Specifically, decriminalizing the "supply" ("selling sex"), while maintaining criminalization of the demand ("buying sex") and third-party organization (pimps, traffickers, etc.). This option results in the most harm reduction (as endorsed by those posters!). This option is often referred to as the "Nordic Model" (as it originated in a Nordic country).

I'll expand on these points below.

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Innumerable studies have shown that full legalization results in an increase in sex trafficking. Here is a selection:

These comparisons on several European countries find that full legalization leads to an increase in trafficking, in comparison to both full criminalization and the Nordic model. [2, 3]

This review discusses how "evidence supports the theory that legal prostitution is associated with increased trafficking." When the article was written (2009) an estimated "80% of all women in German and Dutch prostitution are trafficked". In New Zealand's largest city, "A 200-400% increase in street prostitution has been reported since prostitution was decriminalized in 2003." and "25% of those interviewed said that they entered the sex industry because it had been decriminalized". [4]

This paper highlights how "fighting sex trafficking using the criminal justice system may even be harder in the legalized prostitution sector". [5]

This EU commissioned study found that both full legalization and full decriminalization was associated with twice the number of trafficking victims as full criminalization or the Nordic model. [6]

This article discusses how legalization promotes trafficking, expands demand, increases the illegal market, increases child prostitution/trafficking, and doesn't protect the women/children in prostitution [7].

In addition:

This paper provides a thorough debunking of Amnesty International's support for decriminalization. They discuss how "the best available evidence indicates that decriminalization of prostitution would: increase sex trafficking, leave prostituted women or 'sex workers' more vulnerable to violence, and reduce access to healthcare, protection, and services." [8]

This paper's title is particularly apt: "Prostitution, Trafficking, and Cultural Amnesia: What We Must Not Know in Order To Keep the Business of Sexual Exploitation Running Smoothly". In particular, it discusses how prostitution is extremely violent, linked to prejudice, linked to trafficking, and harmful to women and society at large. [9]

This study of 150 countries finds legalization "does not help liberate victims of human trafficking" and doesn't protect victims. [10]

I have searched for any evidence that (as claimed by the third poster) that the "growth rate of trafficking in [Germany, following legalization] went down" and found ... nothing. I can't actually find any sources about the "growth rate" of trafficking in either direction. That being said, the above sources all clearly indicate that traffickers find Germany (and other countries with legalized prostitution) to be profitable (i.e., people are still being trafficked through and into Germany).

Further, while it is likely that victims find it easier to escape under a fully legalized than a fully criminalized model (as discussed above), that doesn't change the fact that more women are being trafficked in the first place. It also doesn't change the fact that there is a better alternative (i.e, the Nordic model, which retains the ability for women to escape trafficking while also reducing trafficking and the overall demand for prostitution).

To expand, many papers have provided empirical support for the Nordic model. These papers [11-15] all discuss the various advantages and disadvantageous of the different systems. Papers [13-15] all explicitly recommend the Nordic model as the best (if still flawed) option.

And here [16] is an additional discussion of both the benefits and issues (primarily implementation problems) with the Nordic model. They describe the reduction in prostitution and trafficking and positive change sin public opinion, but also discuss the additional services and protections needed to realize the full potential of this policy.

---

All in all, I actually agree that "harm reduction is always good". However, the greatest amount of harm reduction is afforded by the Nordic model. This model legalizes/decriminalizes "selling sex" while criminalizing "buying sex" and "organization" (e.g., pimps, brothels). It results in reduced demand, reduced trafficking, and reduced overall harm. Simply legalizing "sex work" is not harm reduction; on the contrary, it causes significant harm.

References under the cut:

International Women’s Human Rights Clinic, et al. Criminalization of Trafficking Victims. 2015, https://www.law.cuny.edu/wp-content/uploads/page-assets/academics/clinics/hrgj/publications/Criminalization-of-Trafficking-Victims.pdf.

Marinova, Nadejda K., and Patrick James. “The Tragedy of Human Trafficking: Competing Theories and European Evidence1: The Tragedy of Human Trafficking.” Foreign Policy Analysis, vol. 8, no. 3, July 2012, pp. 231–53. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1743-8594.2011.00162.x.

Osmanaj, Egzone. “The Impact of Legalized Prostitution on Human Trafficking.” Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, June 2014. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.5901/ajis.2014.v3n2p103.

Farley, Melissa. “Theory versus Reality: Commentary on Four Articles about Trafficking for Prostitution.” Women’s Studies International Forum, vol. 32, no. 4, July 2009, pp. 311–15. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wsif.2009.07.001.

Huisman, Wim, and Edward R. Kleemans. “The Challenges of Fighting Sex Trafficking in the Legalized Prostitution Market of the Netherlands.” Crime, Law and Social Change, vol. 61, no. 2, Mar. 2014, pp. 215–28. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1007/s10611-013-9512-4.

Di Nicola, Andrea. The differing EU Member States’ regulations on prostitution and their cross-border implications on women’s rights. European Union, 2021.

Raymond, Janice G. "Ten reasons for not legalizing prostitution and a legal response to the demand for prostitution." Journal of Trauma Practice 2.3-4 (2004): 315-332.

Geist, Darren. (2016). Dignity: A Journal on Sexual Exploitation and Violence. Vol. 1, Issue 1, Article 6. DOI:10.23860/dignity.2016.01.01.06. Available at http://digitalcommons.uri.edu/dignity/Vol1/Iss1/6.

Farley, Melissa. "Prostitution, trafficking, and cultural amnesia: What we must not know in order to keep the business of sexual exploitation running smoothly." Yale JL & Feminism 18 (2006): 109.

Cho, Seo-young (2013) : Liberal coercion? Prostitution, human trafficking and policy, MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics, No. 44-2013, Philipps-University Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Marburg

Curiel, Angelica. Informing United States Sex Trafficking Policies: A Comparative Analysis of Sweden, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Chile, and South Korea. Diss. California State University San Marcos, 2016.

Tomlinson, Alexia, Mary Haggerty, and Caroline Rini. "A global study of prostitution policy." Wis. JL Gender, & Soc'y 37 (2022): 23.

Rowe, Kathryn, "Regulating Sex Work: United States' Policy and International Comparisons" (2018). Honors Theses. 522. https://egrove.olemiss.edu/hon_thesis/522

Tate Santana, Madison. "Trafficked in Texas: Combatting the sex-trafficking epidemic through prostitution law and sentencing reform in the lone star state." Vand. L. Rev. 71 (2018): 1739.

Joulaei, Hassan, et al. "Legalization, Decriminalization or Criminalization; Could We Introduce a Global Prescription for Prostitution (Sex Work)?." International Journal of High Risk Behaviors and Addiction 10.3 (2021).

Waltman, Max. "Sweden's prohibition of purchase of sex: The law's reasons, impact, and potential." Women's Studies International Forum. Vol. 34. No. 5. Pergamon, 2011.

[lonestarflight]

Cancelled Missions: Apollo-Soyuz Test Program II, with a Salyut Space Station

"The Apollo-Soyuz Test Project (ASTP) had its origins in talks aimed at developing a common U.S./Soviet docking system for space rescue. The concept of a common docking system was first put forward in 1970; it was assumed at that time, however, that the docking system would be developed for future spacecraft, such as the U.S. Space Station/Space Shuttle, not the U.S. Apollo Command and Service Module (CSM) and Soviet Soyuz spacecraft in operation at the time.

A joint U.S./Soviet space mission served the political aims of both countries, however, so the concept of a near-term docking mission rapidly gained momentum. In May 1972, at the superpower summit meeting held in Moscow, President Richard Nixon and Premier Alexei Kosygin signed an agreement calling for an Apollo-Soyuz docking in July 1975.

NASA and its contractors studied ways of expanding upon ASTP even before it was formally approved; in April 1972, for example, McDonnell Douglas proposed a Skylab-Salyut international space laboratory . A year and a half later (September 1973), however, the aerospace trade magazine Aviation Week & Space Technology cited unnamed NASA officials when it reported that, while the Soviets had indicated interest in a 1977 second ASTP flight, the U.S. space agency was 'currently unwilling' to divert funds from Space Shuttle development.

Salyut Apollo docking diagram

Nevertheless, early in 1974 the Flight Operations Directorate (FOD) at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston, Texas, examined whether a second ASTP mission might be feasible in 1977. The 1977 ASTP proposal aimed to fill the expected gap in U.S. piloted space missions between the 1975 ASTP mission and the first Space Shuttle flight.

The brief in-house study focused on mission requirements for which NASA JSC had direct responsibility. FOD assumed that Apollo CSM-119 would serve as the prime 1977 ASTP spacecraft and that the U.S. would again provide the Docking Module (DM) for linking the Apollo CSM with the Soyuz spacecraft. CSM-119 had been configured as the five-seat Skylab rescue CSM; work to modify it to serve as the 1975 ASTP backup spacecraft began as FOD conducted its study, soon after the third and final Skylab crew returned to Earth in February 1974. FOD suggested that, if a backup CSM were deemed necessary for the 1977 ASTP mission, then the incomplete CSM-115 spacecraft should get the job. CSM-115, which resided in storage in California, had been tapped originally for the cancelled Apollo 19 moon landing mission.

FOD also assumed that the ASTP prime crew of Thomas Stafford, Vance Brand, and Deke Slayton would serve as the backup crew for the 1977 ASTP mission, while the 1975 ASTP backup crew of Alan Bean, Ronald Evans, and Jack Lousma would become the 1977 ASTP prime crew. FOD conceded, however, that this assumption was probably not realistic. If new crewmembers were needed, FOD noted, then training them would require 20 months. They would undergo 500 hours of intensive language instruction during their training.

FOD estimated that Rockwell International support for the 1977 ASTP flight would cost $49.6 million, while new experiments, nine new space suits, and 'government-furnished equipment' would total $40 million. Completing and modifying CSM-115 for its backup role would cost $25 million. Institutional costs — for example, operating Mission Control and the Command Module Simulator (CMS), printing training manuals and flight documentation, and keeping the cafeteria open after hours — would add up to about $15 million. This would bring the total cost to $104.7 million without the backup CSM and $129.7 million with the backup CSM.

The FOD study identified 'two additional major problems' facing the 1977 ASTP mission, both of which involved NASA JSC's Space Shuttle plans. The first was that the CMS had to be removed to make room for planned Space Shuttle simulators. Leaving it in place to support the 1977 ASTP mission would postpone Shuttle simulator availability.

A thornier problem was that 75% of NASA JSC's existing flight controllers (about 100 people) would be required for the 1977 ASTP in the six months leading up to and during the mission. In the same period, NASA planned to conduct "horizontal" Space Shuttle flight tests. These would see a Shuttle Orbiter flown atop a modified 747; later, the aircraft would release the Orbiter for an unpowered glide back to Earth. FOD estimated that NASA JSC would need to hire new flight controllers if it had to support both the 1977 ASTP and the horizontal flight tests. The new controllers would receive training to support Space Shuttle testing while veteran controllers supported the 1977 ASTP.

The ASTP Apollo CSM (CSM-111) lifted off on a Saturn IB rocket on 15 July 1975 with astronauts Thomas Stafford, Vance Brand, and Donald Slayton on board. The ASTP Saturn IB, the last rocket of the Saturn family to fly, lifted off from Launch Complex (LC) 39 Pad B, one of two Saturn V pads at Kennedy Space Center, not the LC 34 and LC 37 pads used for Saturn IB launches in the Apollo lunar program. This was because NASA had judged that maintaining the Saturn IB pads for Skylab and ASTP would be too costly. A 'pedestal' (nicknamed the 'milkstool') raised the Skylab 2, 3, and 4 and ASTP Saturn IB rockets so that they could use the Pad 39B Saturn V umbilicals and crew access arm.

Once in orbit, the ASTP CSM turned and docked with the DM mounted on top of the Saturn IB's second stage. It then withdrew the DM from the stage and set out in pursuit of the Soyuz 19 spacecraft, which had launched about eight hours before the Apollo CSM with cosmonauts Alexei Leonov and Valeri Kubasov on board. The two craft docked on 17 July and undocked for the final time on July 19. Soyuz 19 landed on 21 July. The ASTP Apollo CSM, the last Apollo spacecraft to fly, splashed down near Hawaii on 24 July 1975 — six years to the day after Apollo 11, the first piloted Moon landing mission, returned to Earth.

The proposal for a 1977 ASTP repeat gained little traction. Though talks aimed at a U.S. Space Shuttle docking with a Soviet Salyut space station had resumed in May 1975, no plans for new U.S.-Soviet manned missions existed when the ASTP Apollo splashed down. Shuttle-Salyut negotiators made progress in 1975-1976, but the U.S. deferred signing an agreement until after the results of the November 1976 election were known.

In May 1977, the sides formally agreed that a Shuttle-Salyut mission should occur. In September 1978, however, NASA announced that talks had ended pending results of a comprehensive U.S. government review. Following the December 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, work toward joint U.S.-Soviet piloted space missions was abandoned on advice from the U.S. Department of State. It would resume a decade later as the Soviet Union underwent radical internal changes that led to its collapse in 1991 and the rebirth of the Soviet space program as the Russian space program."

-Article from "No Shortage of Dreams" blog: link

Drew Granston: link

source, source, source

[spark-hearts2]

It's been a month since chapter 3 was released, where's chapter 4?

(this is about this fanfic btw)

The good news is that I've written 10k words. The bad news is that I've only gotten a little more than half of the chapter done. That doesn't mean I don't have things written for the bottom half, it's just that it looks like bare dialog with general vibe notes. I estimate around 16k words total though, so it should come together sooner than later.

SO I want to release some fun snippets for y'all to look at. Please note that any of this is liable to change. Also, you can harass me in my inbox for updates. I love answering your questions and laughing at your misery.

Spoilers under cut.

_______

Ragatha stood up and walked over to where Caine was seated. “Can I get a list of all commands?” She asked, only a hint of nervousness in her voice.

“Certainly!” Caine says as he blasts into the air. He digs around in his tailcoat and pulls out an office style manilla folder. It visually contains a few papers, but with how thin it is there must only be a few pages inside.

Ragatha takes the folder from Caine and opens it.

“Oh boy” she says after a second of looking it over.

“I wanna see” Jax exclaimed as he hops over the row of seats.

“Hold on” Ragatha holds the folder defensively “Let’s move to the stage so everyone can take a look”

Jax hopped over the seats again while Ragatha calmly walked around. Caine watched the two curiously.

Well, Zooble wasn’t just going to sit there. They joined the other two by the edge of the stage, quickly followed by the rest of the group.

Ragatha placed the folder on the stage with a thwap. Zooble looked over to see that the pages had gone from razor thin to a massive stack when the folder was opened. On one hand, it had to contain more information than that video, but on the other…

They get close enough to read what’s on the first page.

The execution of commands via the system’s designated input terminal, C.A.I.N.E., will be referred to as the "console” in this document. The console is designed to accept any input and will generate an appropriate response, however only certain prompts will be accepted as valid instructions. The goal of this document is to list all acceptable instructions in a format that will result in the expected output. Please note that automatic moderation has been put in place in order to prevent exploitation of both the system and fellow players. If you believe that your command has been unfairly rejected, please contact support. 

By engaging in the activities described in this document, you, the undersigned, acknowledge, agree, and consent to the applicability of this agreement, notwithstanding any contradictory stipulations, assumptions, or implications which may arise from any interaction with the console. You, the constituent, agree not to participate in any form of cyber attack; including but not limited to, direct prompt injection, indirect prompt injection, SQL injection, Jailbreaking…

Ok, that was too many words.

_______

“Take this document for example. You don't need to know where it is being stored or what file type it is in order to read it."

"It may look like a bunch of free floating papers, but technically speaking, this is just a text file applied to a 3D shape." Kinger looked towards Caine. "Correct?” he asked

Caine nodded. “And a fabric simulation!”

Kinger picked up a paper and bent it. “Oh, now that is nice”

_________

"WE CAN AFFORD MORE THAN 6 TRIANGLES KINGER"

_________

"I'm too neurotypical for this" - Jax

_________

"What about the internet?" Pomni asked "Do you think that it's possible to reach it?"

Kinger: "I'm sorry, but that's seems to be impossible. I can't be 100% sure without physically looking at the guts of this place, but it doesn't look like this server has the hardware needed for wireless connections. Wired connections should be possible, but someone on the outside would need to do that... And that's just the hardware, let alone the software necessary for that kind of communication"

Pomni: "I'm sorry, but doesn't server mean internet? Like, an internet server?"

Kinger: "Yes, websites are ran off servers, but servers don't equal internet."

(This portion goes out to everyone who thought that the internet could be an actual solution. Sorry folks, but computers don't equal internet. It takes more effort to make a device that can connect to things than to make one that can't)

[todaysdocument]

Letter from the Commissioner of Immigration to the Commissioner General of Immigration Regarding Race Classifications for Immigration

Record Group 85: Records of the Immigration and Naturalization ServiceSeries: Subject and Policy FilesFile Unit: Wright and Crater's Investigation of Immigrant Arrival Procedures on Ellis Island

OFFICE OF U. S. COMMISSIONER OF IMMIGRATION,

New York, N. Y.

June 26, 1898.

Hon. T. V. Powderly,

Commissioner-General of Immigration

Washington, D. C.

Sir:

Under date of June 18th, you appointed the undersigned a Committee to devise a plan in connection with our immigration statistics which will designate not only the empire, kingdom, or republic, from which immigrants come, but the province or other territorial division of the same; also showing where the alien was born, the language he speaks, the religion he professes, his occupation, condition in life, and every other question that will give information concerning immigration.

On Thursday, the 23rd Inst., the Committee met as instructed, and organized with Assistant Commissioner Edward F. McSweeney as Chairman, and Dr. M. V. Safford, as Secretary.

In making our classification in accordance with instructions given us, we have availed ourselves of all the sources of information at our command, and wish to gratefully acknowledge the great assistance given us by some of the officials of the service whose former residence among the various foreign races we were trying to classify, and consequent knowledge of the social, industrial and religious conditions which prevailed in the countries from which such races respectively come, were of the greatest value to the Committee.

In submitting the new scheme for immigration statistics it should be stated, that your Committee has proceeded on the assumption that the object of such statistics is to show the kind of people that come to this country arranged according to some order or classification which will furnish an approximately accurate means for estimating, from the known race characteristics of each order or class, its industrial and social value to this country.

Although, for this purpose, the present system of grouping immigrants according to political boundaries, appears inadequate, still it has not been deemed wise to abandon it altogether, but rather to make it subservient to a classification according to races which, though perhaps not recognized strictly as such, yet may be wisely so regarded in order to accomplish the objects contemplated by the instructions to your Committee.

In some instances, such as that of Hebrews, religion has been resorted to as a means of distinguishing race, but, in general the mother-tongue spoken is the criterion by which such classification has been made, since it constitutes the chief bond of social and domestic union which holds peoples together in all [complete document and transcript at link]

[morscordiss]

Perish / Parish | Chapter Three, The Fall

Previous Chapter: Chapter Two, The Burden

Next Chapter: Chapter Four, Brotherhood

Pairing: Null Sector Ramattra x Mechanic & Machinist Reader

Genre: Angst, Fluff, character study, Will edit tags in the future

Word Count: 2.0k

Estimated Reading Time: roughly 7 minutes

Synopsis: Sojourn is working with Overwatch to try and find Ramattra. You work on repairing Ramattra's busted shoulder servos and faceplate while Ramattra has an existential crisis. Then after a long day of repair you're greeted with a knocking at your front door.

   The sound of footsteps clacking on a cold floor rang out in the Overwatch drop-pod. It had been two days since Vivian had shot the leader of null sector with what she believed would’ve been a fatal blow, the only thing stopping her from confirming him as dead was the fact that they had no body. Hell, he had practically dropped off of the face of the earth.

She remembered every second of their nasty confrontation, the weight of her railgun, her mouth feeling so damn dry, and her screams of anguish after she realized he had gotten away. She was just so exhausted from it all. But the shame from her failure left a lasting impact on her.

It’s not like she wasn’t used to failure, but in her hometown? Seeing so much carnage while she had worked to keep the town orderly and peaceful?

Thankfully, Overwatch had made it so that anyone entering or leaving New Queens Street would be documented, and very few people stayed. Mainly the elderly or rebellious kids stayed while everyone else made it to the cargo ship or got subjugated.

They have to find him, to bring back Overwatch- to save the people who’d surely be killed if they showed signs of resistance. But they had nothing other than the assumption that Ramattra was too injured to leave the area safely.

Vivian really wanted to believe that he was still in New Queens Street, but knowing how crafty he was, they needed multiple backup-plans. 

Nobody destroys her city without consequences, and she’d make it her mission to find this bastard and take him out.

The only reason she decided against tearing apart the entirety of downtown was because apparently the ninja knew someone who used to be close to Ramattra from their days at the Shambali monastery.

Hopefully Zenyatta would be willing to help her and Overwatch out if he trained Genji.

…

   It had been five days since you found Ramattra outside. 

And within those five days, you both fell into an awkward routine with each other.

You’d wake up around ten in the morning, grab a drink, and then immediately start working on a repair or a part that Ramattra needed. Then, by noon your hands would be calloused, your shirt covered in oil and metal chips. Thankfully the trusty rag you had hanging out of your pants pocket was still absorbent enough to clean off the machines when the pressurized air blaster wouldn’t.

He had already started to get used to the sounds of a human workshop. The sounds of a clean metal finish on a mill or lathe, the tight screech that came when reaming, and the loud jerk when round pull the red emergency brake on any machine.

Today, the mechanic had decided to first work on putting his faceplate. Seemingly, they’d realized the much more efficient way to do it- the scrapped faceplate laid on the workbench across from him. Even for scrapped work, it was very well executed.

They had grabbed a camera and asked him to remove his face plate, he assumed that they’d just do a 3D scan of the damage and use higher-grade filament to create a copy that perfectly covered the damage.

And Ramattra was right! But, the print would take about 7 hours due to the precision that you had demanded from your machine- that and needing to print metal.

During that time, they had grabbed a plastic storage container full of servos motors of all shapes and sizes, yellow, blue, red, and black wires sticking out haphazardly from the pile, bits of copper wire fully exposed to the elements.

The feeling of malleable human hands inspecting his shoulder brought him back to reality. 

“Hey Ramattra, I need to take off your arm to get to this motor- I already have a crane set up.”

They pointed a thumb behind them,

“Fine, my only request is that I end my day with my arm on my body.”

After living with him for multiple days, you had noticed that he’d always assume the worst when it came to you or other humans, and of course, this hurt your ego.

“Perfect, that’s the plan. Come with me please,”

You gave him a curt tight-lipped smile and turned around, finally able to roll your eyes. 

But your touch permeated long after your hands left him.

…

The work table now had a patterned blanket covering the dented metal along with a simple white pillow. Well, at least you tried to make this more comfortable for him. 

The table had an extension on the upper right-hand side along with a home-made crane.

And shockingly, the crane did not comfort him at all.

He laid down onto the table, resting his head against the pillow so kindly procured for him and watched as the mechanic had laid out all the tools they needed; multiple screw drivers, a pulse tracer, even more wires because they seemingly had an infinite amount in storage. But of course, the human still had kept that oil can on top of their toolbox.

…

Your calloused hands slowly started to disconnect the threaded fasteners that kept his shoulder together. From what you could tell, his shoulder had a universal double joint and both the input and output shafts were connected to parallel servomotors. 

So, this would be an utter nightmare to take apart and put together if you didn’t keep track of every little bit and piece of the omnic in front of you.

After you removed his arm at the shoulder, you moved the extension table that currently held it away from you so you could peek into exactly where that servos would be and found what was left. Honestly, if you had no prior knowledge of what this motor is supposed to look like you would’ve thought it was a piece of scrap shoved into him.

What a wonderful start to such a complicated fix!

…

After an hour of slowly removing even more pieces of Ramattra to get at the worlds most convoluted motor, and then spending another hour putting his arm back on his socket, and then at least forty minutes doing diagnostic testing to double-check that you had done it correctly- Ramattra’s right shoulder had been repaired.

But there was still the molten shot that was below his left shoulder. It almost made you nauseous. It was such an extreme piece of damage that you almost didn’t want to even try to fix it- all of the rewiring, fabrication, and attention to detail that one motor made grounded you to reality.

You would need an entire day to fix that one gunshot wound, and you need to get that taken care of as fast as you can despite how frightening it is.

…

Watching your hands tear him apart and put him back together was an experience that Ramattra wasn’t equipped for.

He watched something that he hated so clearly within his mind take him apart and piece him back together with so much  passion and care, he watched your face twist and turn in seemingly never ending concentration. The warmth of your skin all over him. Reconnecting wires, slowly unscrewing threads, doing everything in your power to keep him alive.

But above all was the overwhelming contrast that your effort held to all of the violence he had perpetrated and experienced.

And when he was confronted with such compassion, 

He decided to pull away.

The last time he felt how much anyone had cared about him was back when Null Sector was still young and full of passion, not just him and the mindless drones he created. But after Kings Row all of that changed.

He had been hardened through years of warfare, clawing at any possibility to fulfill his instinct to protect his people. He had hardened himself because if he didn’t, who would?

If he didn’t take power, someone else would. And there was no guarantee that they’d be kind. If he did not take action, then who would? The same question repeated in his systems for years by now, the same question that had made him leave the monastery.

There was no time for him to waste, he was still in the middle of a battlefield after all. His safety was still uncertain, and your loyalty had yet to be tested. 

Even if he didn’t like the thought of it, he was completely willing to kill you if the moment arose. 

That was the last thought he had before he meditated for the night.

…

The lack of windows in your shop made it easy to forget what time it was or how much time had passed.

You had finally left to grab a snack when the flooding darkness of night swept through the windows of your home. You hadn’t yet invited Ramattra here but after fixing his shoulder he seemed more tense than usual. So, you let him be.

You actually enjoy his presence. He’s a good conversationalist when he does decide to talk to you, but one thing creeps into your mind while standing in your kitchen with a glass of water,

You have been giving more than you’ve got. The relationship you two have was built on that imbalance.

Which is not a bad thing, it’s supposed to be this way for now. He is injured and needs help, and it is your job to provide repairs and what little comforts you can. Accommodation is a part of this job just as much as the repair is. 

But you becoming attached wasn’t, and you know that he wouldn’t be here if he had that choice currently.

You’ve always given more than you got, though. Every now and then, you remember this and go on to have an emotional night. It happens maybe once every two months? This is probably happening now because you overworked yourself too much- or maybe it’s the stress of having the person who is responsible for tearing apart your hometown inside of your house asking you for aid.

Your head ached, your hands felt so heavy, and you were sore everywhere. All the physicality needed to move, run, and haul everything you needed today finally put its price onto your body. Your head spun, and you finally felt the ping of nausea.

And you sat on the floor of your kitchen for an embarrassing amount of time as you tried your best to ground yourself back to reality using any possible method to try- the cold feeling of the glass in your hand, the humming of the air conditioner, the ornate tiling on the floor below you, and the dry feeling and lack of taste in your mouth.

It was hard to make new friends with how stressful things had become. It felt like every power was trying to suffocate each other and the regular people were in the line of fire- just being used as pawns. A part of you knew that you’d be in the line of fire, just not in this way.

Nothing seemed to be able to get to you other than your own thoughts.

Well, that and a knocking at your door.

Even with all of this violence just on the street, someone had came to your door and knocked.

You scrambled to Ramattra’s room, leaving whoever was at the door waiting.

…

   He had heard many things about this place from the omnics he had encountered during the effort to bring order back to New Queen’s Street and if anyone would be willing to shelter Ramattra, it would be this mechanic.

The immediate sound of footsteps running all over the home had also been a good indication that this was the right place.

He hoped he was right, he hoped that his brother would be here alive and well.

As Zenyatta floated idly, he whirled his orbs around himself in a never ending form of meditation. He would wait here forever if it meant seeing him again. He hoped that Ramattra felt similarly, but their paths had left each others' a very long time ago.

Hopefully this time it will be different.

[greencloakedfae]

Nell's Shirt Recreation

Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 | Part 5

Alright, being a Renegade Nell fan and a historical fashion fan has unsurprisingly led me down the rabbit hole of their costuming. So, I'm recreating Nell's shirt best I can, cause gender envy :D

I'm also gonna try document my progress as I love to infodump and a few people on the renegade nell discord server have asked me to lmao. This post is gonna be about planning, drafting and cutting!

Planning:

Above is my collection of screenshots (and gifs u can find if you search #sewing reference on my blog) from a rewatch of the show, with notes about construction details. I am so sorry about my handwriting, but if anyone is curious about anything they can't read please ask and I will happily provide.

The rundown though, is that it's a classic 18th century men's shirt, which you can find countless tutorials for if you want to make one that isn't so specifically Nell's.

There are a number of key details to note that are specific to this shirt however. The sizing of the shirt is a bit abnormal to the brief research I've done, with Nell's gussets (the triangle under the arm that allows movement) being a bit larger than what's to be expected, as well as the length being extremely long compared to other men's shirts. Eg:

(Credit indigomood for the gif, my phone couldn't handle searching for it in gifs so I had to download it)

Which, would make sense for a shirt she's taken from her late husband, but the sleeves are so fitted perfectly to her arm length, that I'm gonna just chalk these up as a mix of design choices for the comfort of Lousia when filming and giving the illusion of an oversized shirt.

Also, the cuffs and collar have a simple embroidery edging to them which I love. They have most likely been done on a modern machine, but we can cut Tom Pye some slack with the rest of the amazing work he's done. It looks like a zigzag stitch, with a straight stitch running on the side closest to the edge.

Also also, if anyone has seen Bernadette Banners pirate shirt tutorial, the sleeves and collar have less fabric and as a result less gathering. It's also mostly situated at the very tops of the shoulder, rather than all around the arms eye.

Alrightly onto the pattern drafting:

The Pattern:

The first image is a not-to-scale sketch up of all the pattern pieces, with my estimation of measurements (with about 1cm seam allowance idk I learnt to sew without a sewing machine and this project isn't very fussy) for each piece, as well as some short notes for how I got some of the measurements. The second image is just a guide/plan of how to lay each piece out on my fabric with minimal waste, and will be different for each person if yall attempt this.

I'm ngl, I snatched Bernadette's pattern as a base, cause I've made that shirt before. The measurements also are a weird mix of the guides given in Bernadette's video, a great informative comment on the video by musikkfreaken342, and a general taking measurements of my own body (which is a similar body type to Nell's) and seeing how they compare to the photo references. I wish I could give more guidance here but I'm ngl I went based on vibes for most of this.

*Note: despite how long Nell's shirt appears to be in that Billy intro scene, I'm going to run on the assumption that the length was for actor comfort, and will be cutting mine shorter.

Also, ignore the neck slit lining/reinforcement for now. Idk how I'm doing that yet... so yeah.

Alright!! Moving onto actually cutting out the fabric!

Cutting the Fabric:

Historically these shirts are made from linen (and sometimes cotton I think?). Great material: looks great, breaths easy, whips sweat away from the skin to protect your outer layers.

I've personally chosen a lightweight linen/rayon blend, cause it's soft and I don't have the money for full linen. Def recommend a lightweight linen if possible for these shirts, it just works out nicer and comfier.

However, with linen comes the challenges of cutting everything out straight. As you may have noticed, all our pattern pieces are rectangles, and it's very important to cut these as straight as possible for the shirt to drape properly. As such, I've used a method called drawing threads, where you pull one thread out to make a guide to cut along.

You can skip the next few photos if you are not actually interested in sewing techniques and just want to see Nell's shirt.

First measure your piece. I've placed pins in where I want to cut.

From there, I have cut a little notch, and separated out a thread.

Here comes the tedious task of pulling on the thread until you end up with a gap in the weave! The thread will break on you countless times and you have to be patient I'm so sorry.

You then cut along that line to end up with perfectly rectangular pieces. I also recommend doing each piece either individually or in small groups.

Okay end of needless tutorial about cutting linen!!!

At the end of this whole process, I've ended up with all my pieces :D

The collar slit reinforcement piece is just a scrap piece of fabric rn. Like I said idk what I'm doing for that yet.

Thats what I have for now! I'm lowkey planning on sewing most of this by hand, cause I'm that sort of person, so it might be a moment before I have a substantial update for if anyone is actually a fraction of the interested in this as I am sjfjskf.

[mariacallous]

For the residents of Nahal Oz, there can be little doubt that the Israeli military failed miserably in protecting the country on Oct. 7, 2023. For at least seven hours, they were undefended, at the mercy of Hamas militants engaged in acts of murder and sexual violence on the kibbutz and across a wide swath of Israel’s western Negev region.

According to an investigation by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) released on March 4, the first wave of 180 Hamas members entered Nahal Oz at 6:30 a.m. under cover of rocket fire. The only resistance they met was from 11 border guards who happened to be stationed there. Further waves of attacks followed at 10 and 11 a.m. The first significant amount of troops only reached the kibbutz at 1:15 p.m., long after the worst of the Hamas attack was over. Fifteen people from Nahal Oz were killed that day, and eight others were kidnapped, one of whom was subsequently killed in captivity. Two are still being held hostage in Gaza.

“I know that lots of people were murdered, and their last words were, ‘Where is the IDF?’ I know that. It’s very hard for us [to accept that],” Herzi Halevi, who was Israeli chief of staff on Oct. 7, said to local council leaders in leaked remarks.

Seventeen months later, Israelis continue to ask, “Where was the IDF?” And that’s precisely where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants the questioning to stop—with the army and the rest of the defense establishment taking the blame rather than the civilian leadership. At no point since the attack has Netanyahu accepted any personal responsibility for it. He has resisted pressure to form a state commission of inquiry to investigate the debacle that ended with approximately 1,200 Israelis dead and 251 kidnapped.

Having issued reports in recent weeks, the IDF has taken at least one step toward answering the question of where the military was that day (Shin Bet, Israel’s security agency, also published a report of its own). But it’s only a step. It did not assign personal responsibility to the generals involved and was careful to steer clear of addressing the role of civilian leaders.  Halevi himself has admitted responsibility and recently stepped down from his post, as have a host of other generals who had a direct role in the Oct. 7 debacle.

As to its overall role in the disaster, the IDF was pretty candid, even if it added relatively little new information to events that have been thoroughly documented by the media, personal testimonies, and even independent citizens’ commissions of inquiry. The Shin Bet and military intelligence ignored the evidence that Hamas was preparing for a major attack. Thus, the 40-mile border Israel shared with Gaza was manned by just 767 soldiers when an estimated 5,600 attackers stormed the border fence, quickly overrunning military installations and civilian communities. Blinded by Hamas’s assault on the high-tech equipment that was supposed to alert the Israeli army to an incursion, the top military brass had no clear picture of what was happening for hours. In the meantime, it responded slowly and with confusion.

There was, of course, a much bigger and deeper failure that enabled all this to happen—one that goes back at least to 2014—as the army report recounts. Resources were directed to fighting Iran and Hezbollah on the assumption that Hamas had been pacified at least to the degree that it couldn’t or wouldn’t ever mount a large-scale attack. It was believed to be mainly interested in preserving its power in Gaza and, for that purpose, it wanted to improve economic conditions. With that misconception driving policy, the IDF calculated that it just needed timely intelligence and early-warning systems to ensure Israel’s security. Hamas encouraged this Israeli misconception, even as its leader, Yahya Sinwar, began planning what the organization called Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.

While the responsibility of the political echelon is not addressed in the IDF investigation, the army’s faulty assumptions were shared by Netanyahu. He wasn’t interested in a decisive military assault on Gaza and lent a hand to stabilizing its economy by authorizing Qatar to deliver suitcases of money to Hamas in the years after 2018. The prime minister preferred a strong and stable Hamas as a rival to the more moderate Palestinian Authority that rules the West Bank. Keeping the West Bank and Gaza divided would make Netanyahu’s goal of evading a peace process harder.

Getting to the truth of a cataclysmic event is a laudable goal. The United States did so after President John F. Kennedy’s assassination and 9/11, South Africa did so after the fall of apartheid, and much of Eastern Europe did so after the fall of communism. However, such efforts inevitably come with a political cost for those held responsible, a fate Netanyahu is determined not to suffer.

In the case of Israel, there is a long history of state commissions of inquiry being established after a catastrophe. Among the most important: the Agranat Commission that probed the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the Kahan Commission that looked into the Sabra and Shatila massacre of 1982, and the Shamgar Commission that investigated Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin’s assassination. The Winograd Commission (technically a somewhat lesser government commission of inquiry) formed after the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War led to IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz to resign. Netanyahu demanded the resignation of Ehud Olmert, who was prime minister at the time. Olmert limped along for another two years, but his political career was over.

These commissions, whose status is set out in a 1968 law, are independent and powerful. They can call witnesses; recommend further action against politicians, generals, and officials found culpable; and propose policy changes. Their conclusions have the imprimatur of official history, so it comes as no surprise that Netanyahu fears an Oct. 7 commission.

For the supremely legacy-conscious prime minister, a commission that holds him at least partially responsible for the debacle—as is inevitable—would create a powerful narrative in contrast with the image he cultivates of an unparalleled strategist and statesman, as well as the country’s resolute protector. More concretely, the commission might recommend that he should step down. Almost certainly, it would dim his reelection prospects.

The risk for Netanyahu is especially high given the role played in state commissions of inquiry by the Supreme Court, an institution Netanyahu has been at war with due to the government’s judicial overhaul plans. By law, commission members are appointed by the chief justice of the court and the panel itself is usually chaired by a former chief justice. The current chief justice, Yitzhak Amit, was named over the objections of the government, which has been boycotting him. Netanyahu perceives Esther Hayut, Amit’s predecessor and a likely chair, as no less an enemy.

Netanyahu and his allies have offered various justifications for not forming a state commission, including: It must wait until the war is over (although he seems determined to continue the fighting indefinitely); a state commission is fated to be biased against him; and there isn’t a national consensus to form one. However, a majority of the public supports forming either a state commission or a government probe (which would have fewer powers) at the very least. A news poll from last week, for instance, found that only 15 percent of the public say there is no need for such a probe. Worryingly for Netanyahu, other polls show Israelis believe he is more to blame for Oct. 7 than the heads of the IDF or Shin Bet.

The Supreme Court, which often rules on issues of public concern, ordered Netanyahu’s cabinet to debate the issue and to justify its opposition by May 11. Meanwhile, a coalition backbencher has proposed a sui generis type of commission appointed by the Knesset. On paper, the plan sounds reasonable, but between the lines, it’s clear its terms are designed to turn the panel into a partisan slugfest whose conclusions, if it could reach any, would be tainted. Last December, coalition lawmakers blocked an opposition bill to form a state commission, meaning it cannot be resubmitted as legislation until June.

Netanyahu has poisoned the political atmosphere surrounding Oct. 7 so much that even if one is eventually formed, a commission may be unable to win broad support for its conclusions. The prime minister’s supporters not only defend their chief against any and all connection with the debacle, but proffer conspiracy theories built on the canard that there a leftist deep state out to topple him. Before Oct. 7, the conspiracy theories centered  mainly on the judicial system; since then, they have come to include the army and the Shin Bet, which are alleged to have conspired to enable a catastrophe on a scale that the prime minister would have no choice but to resign. As implausible as this sounds, a December poll by the Institute for Liberty and Responsibility found that 47 percent of coalition voters believe it.

Thus, far from being a basis for a national reckoning and a process for making sense of what was the most traumatic event in the country’s history, the idea of a state commission has become a political punching bag—which means Netanyahu has already gotten his wish.

[changelingsandothernonsense]

I'm curious about Diary and Waking Nightmare, yap at me <3

Hii

Sleepers Awake is set out into two sections. Each chapter has a journal entry or supplementary document before the proper chapter begins. I'd decided to split them into separate documents to keep things streamlined, lest my brain forgets.

The purpose of the documents is meant to be a part of a Thalmor Dossier. The Thalmor believe that the Nerevarine is a threat if rumours of his continued existence are true. Considering how he toppled a whole nation. Naturally, they don't know about Joshi's desire to not participate in anything ever.

Part of that is to do with how Josh keeps his journals. He created a cipher when he was 11 and has been writing his personal notes in it ever since. Only a handful of people know the key (He's added number values to the Dunmeri alphabet and then writes using Aldmeri grammar.)

I usually write his entries after I've edited the corresponding chapter. So everything in the document is on Ao3 too.

It's not just journals, it's also his correspondence with Caius Cosades and Blades Logs. Below is an incident report he had to fill out after a bonewalker broke his arm.

4th of Frostfall, 3E 427

Incident Report

Agent Rank: Apprentice

Agent Name: Sero, Teldryn

Agent Number: ???? Cosades, what is it?

Province: Morrowind- Vvardenfell District

Nature of Incident:

Injury –

             - Dislocated shoulder – Estimated recovery time of six weeks

             - Fractured ulnar – Estimated recovery time of six weeks.

                                    - Healing and setting of breaks - 20 drakes.

Equipment damage estimate –

                                                   -  Repairs to Cuirass - 35 drakes

Total: 55 drakes

Details:

What the fuck was that?! ….

Waking Nightmare is the first in a new series I'm calling Cicada. The idea is similar to Arkanis but instead of stories about Erra and Josh it's stories and Sydari and Josh. Things that i might not get to in the main fics or will take a long time to get to. As the title says, it's based on the Vaermina quest of the same name. Josh and Sydari are travelling to Dawnstar to loot a nearby tomb. They overhear the conversation about nightmares and curses and since both of them are on edge they decide to help... or Sydari does, Josh doesn't trust priests of the Divines (or anything that reminds him of a religion that isn't his own) but he's really lapping up the fact that Sydari is showering him in attention and he's so down bad he'll do anything she asks.

Sydari's nervous about how Josh experiences nightmares, which is the whole reason she's helping Erandur, even if things seem a little off about the guy (shes never seen him in Riften).

Things go downhill after Erandur offers to help sooth Joshi's hip injury and accidentally taps Nerevar's magicka instead of Josh's (which is why he rarely lets anyone who isn't himself or his niece or brother-in-law do it.) Everyone's suspicious, Erandur locks Josh out of the temple proper and now they have to deal with and angry, high Josh and a deeply offended Nerevar.

Here's Sydari choosing not to correct Erandur on the assumption the two are married, and instead leaning into it.

“What troubles you, child?”

Sydari turned around, her eyes meeting with the priest she was looking for, his grey-red irises reminding her of those of the Ashlanders back on Solstheim. She wondered if he was like Teldryn, who had told her he was something people back in Morrowind called, Velothi. The mer didn’t have the accent to back it up, though. This priest sounded like he’d been living in the Pale his whole life. Regardless of her misgivings, the amulet the mer wore around his neck gave her comfort.

“I ah…” she stammered in reply, struggling to find her words, “I was looking for you, actually.”

“You look troubled,” The priest repeated, his expression soft as he regarded her, “Did you and your husband overhear my conversation with the townsfolk when you came in?”

She nodded and chewed the side of her cheek, “We did.”

The priest sighed, his fingers reaching for the chain of turquoise beads around his neck, “The entire town is being plagued by horrible nightmares.”

“The innkeeper mentioned that the nightmares aren’t affecting travellers, but…” She sighed hugging herself a little.

“That conversation concerned you?” The priest raised a wispy, grey eyebrow at her, “I understand why you would be worried, child. However, Thoring did not lie to you, the nightmares have yet to affect travellers. You and your husband should be fine.”

“He ah…” She paused for a moment, the priest’s words finally sinking in. She thought about correcting him for a moment. Honestly, she was about to blurt it out but something stopped her. The very thought of it was laughable after all… she didn’t even know what to name what was going on between them. Honestly, she was afraid to. Things between them had always been chaotic, they’d flit between fighting with each other one moment and being almost joined at the hip the next. Technically they’d agreed to something platonic a few years ago and they really tried to be that way. It just started crumbling before too long… Sydari didn’t really know what was going on, but she liked the concept. Of course, it was an impossibility, she was technically still married, even if she and Brand-Shei hadn’t shared a bed in years. She’d abandoned all hopes that he’d sign their annulment papers, the bastard wanted to keep the house after all...

“Are you okay, my daughter?”

She looked up, meeting the priest’s eye, “My husband suffers from severe nightmares. I— I worry that whatever’s causing these nightmares with the townspeople might affect him too.”

The priest sighed and lowered his hood, “Is he susceptible to the Illusion school, miss?”

“Sydari Aralen-Sero,” She replied, liking how the name sounded on her tongue, “And yes, he uses a lot of wards for it but he’s um…”

“Erandur, I’m a travelling priest of Mara,” he replied, nodding towards her, “Your husband’s from Morrowind, yes?

She nodded, swallowing a little, “He has his own way of dealing with it but—”

“But you still worry,” Erandur replied, his voice calm, “I won’t lie to you, I do fear for the people of Dawnstar.”

[abboudlawfirm-tucson]

What Kind of Damages Are Lost Profits?

Navigating the complexities of legal claims often requires understanding the different types of damages you can pursue. One such area—lost profits—can be particularly intricate. This guide explains what lost profits are, how they are calculated, and why they matter in various legal contexts.

Understanding Lost Profits

Lost profits refer to the income a business reasonably expected to earn but couldn’t due to a particular incident, such as a breach of contract or business interruption. These damages are calculated by subtracting the costs of generating income—such as production and overhead expenses—from the projected earnings.

Key Factors in Calculating Lost Profits

Historical Performance: Courts often analyze a business’s past financial records to estimate future profits. This process involves reviewing gross profits and deducting costs to arrive at net profits.

Reasonable Certainty: To recover lost profits, the claimant must provide proof with reasonable certainty. Claims relying on speculative assumptions or excessive variables may be dismissed. This requirement is particularly challenging for new businesses without historical data.

Collateral Agreements: Lost profits may also include income expected from third-party contracts that were disrupted due to an incident, such as a supplier breach or a canceled deal.

Consequential Damages: When business operations are impacted by a breach, lost profits can be categorized as consequential damages. Courts are more likely to accept these claims if supported by thorough documentation.

Common Scenarios for Lost Profits Claims

Lost profits claims may arise in several situations, including:

Breach of Contract: When a supplier, partner, or other party fails to meet obligations, causing financial losses.

Business Interruption: Events like accidents or natural disasters that halt operations can lead to substantial lost profits.

Loss of Goodwill: A damaged reputation caused by a breach can have long-term effects on profitability.

Challenges in Pursuing Lost Profits

While lost profits claims can help businesses recover significant damages, they are not without challenges. The burden of proof lies with the claimant, who must present detailed records and projections. Without sufficient evidence, courts are less likely to recognize these claims.

The Importance of Expert Testimony

Expert testimony often plays a critical role in substantiating claims about lost profits. A forensic accountant, for instance, can analyze financial data to provide a credible calculation of the loss. This expertise can strengthen your case by presenting a clear and compelling narrative to the court.

Defenses Against Lost Profits Claims

When facing a lost profits claim, opposing parties may raise several defenses, including:

Lack of Historical Data: New businesses without financial records may struggle to prove losses.

Speculative Calculations: Claims based on overly optimistic projections or assumptions may be rejected.

Contractual Limitations: Certain agreements may include clauses that waive the right to claim lost profits.

Understanding lost profits and their implications is vital for any business owner dealing with financial losses caused by another party’s actions. Pursuing a claim requires thorough documentation, expert insights, and a clear strategy.

If your business has suffered losses due to a breach of contract or other legal issues, contacting a Tucson personal injury attorney can help you explore your options and seek the compensation you deserve.

[koi-koi-fish]

0-8-4

March 15th, 2011.

Fury sits in his office staring at the monitor watching Captain America sitting in medical after his earlier escape attempt. He sighs. It's not every day a living legend comes back from the dead, beats dozens of your men, escapes a maximum security facility, and makes a scene in one of the most populous cities in the world. But the world finding out about Captain America's return is the least of his worries.

Just as Fury starts to get up, Agent Coulson enters the room holding a binder. "Ah, you're still in. Perfect." Agent Coulson says as he sets down the binder on Fury's desk. "Here's what we have so far on the 0-8-4 we fished up alongside the Captain."

Fury picks up the binder "Has she said anything since waking up?" he asks as he starts flipping through the pages. "Only her name, rank, serial number, and that she wants a lawyer," Agent Coulson says as he sits across from Fury.

The 0-8-4 identifies as 14 year old lieutenant colonel Tanya Von Degurachaff of the Polska-Prussian Union Empire. Her uniform resembles that of a Bavarian Chevaulegers cavalry uniform with rank insignia on the shoulders. Her ruby necklaces are likely rank and or noble regalia.

"She's too young for her rank. Since she's a noble perhaps she's an honorary officer. Purely ceremonial." Fury wonders outloud.

"I thought so too until her X-Rays came back." Agent Coulson says as he leans over and turns some pages on the binder.

"Her skeleton shows signs of several healed fractures. Some are estimated to be several years old. There were also metal fragments found in her body. Even if she was only a political appointment, she's tough enough to survive a battlefield and return for more," Agent Coulson says.

"Not to mention being frozen for over 60 years and surviving like Captain America," Fury thinks to himself.

Fury reads further. The alphabet on the documents and correspondence recovered from her person are closer to Scandinavian runes but essentially German grammatically. The most recent date found was correspondence dated February 5th, 1928, addressed to a Lieutenant Serebryakov wishing her a happy 21st birthday. The letter contained some chocolate. The medals on her person with the exception of the Iron Cross don't resemble any officially recognized medals of any nation past or present. Most of the medals are heavy with Norse mythological symbolism with the exception of the aforementioned Iron Cross and another with silver wings.

February 5th is the same day Captain America became frozen. "Just how likely is this to be a Hydra plot by the Red Skull?" Fury asks himself. Red Skull was overly obsessed with the occult, mythology, and the tesseract. It's possible that Tanya is one of his more fanatical followers that took after that motif. But that doesn't explain her DNA being different to regular humans.

Did Red Skull successfully create his own super soldier? That would explain her injuries. It's possible that there were others and that she was the only one to survive the process. But analysis shows no signs of a super soldier serum within her system like Captain America. Nothing about her adds up. Too much is unknown about her.

"Keep her under maximum surveillance for now. There is still too much we don't know about her." Fury says with a scowl.

"Understood boss," Agent Coulson says then leaves, closing the door behind him.

Fury leans back in his chair and rereads the binder. There's not enough information to go on and making assumptions gets people killed. Perhaps he should have the Captain interrogate her. He has the most experience with Hydra operatives of that time period.

Mulling that thought he sets down the binder and brings up the camera feed of Tanya's room only to be met with her looking directly at him sending a shiver down his spine.

[pelagic--polyplex]

We just your positivity post for large systems and we feel very seen. We’re a disordered mixed origin collective with an estimate of around 3k members and 600+ documented. The more we learn about ourselves the more members introduce themselves and the complexity of our system structure becomes clearer.

I wish we had more to say. We love seeing other large systems and hearing about others experiences, thank you for sharing and thanks for the positivity, we hope youre taking good care of yourselves!

thank you! i hope y'all are taking good care of yourselves too! we're very glad we could help you feel seen--we personally feel a lot like large systems are often known about, but not actually recognized?

like, we'll hear others (including other systems) talk about systems with 100+, 1000+, etc members (especially that one medically documented system with over 2k members), but whenever we talk about being a large system in more community-oriented spaces (eg., discord servers), we feel like we become an object to be observed, talked about ("that must be so chaotic!" "i could never handle that many headmates lol" "wow, that must be so difficult to manage"), but not to be talked to as a collective with its own autonomy and experiences (that may or may not align with aforementioned assumptions (which, for us, they pretty much never do--an assumption was simply made based solely on our headcount without us ever talking about our functioning, which Sucks To Experience)).

and while we'll sometimes see positivity made for large systems, it's a lot rarer that we'll see that positivity made by large systems. and a lot of the time (shaking your hand on being mixed origins), positivity and recognition for large and complex systems is made by anti-endos, with the perspective that it's for polyfragmented systems (with the idea that polyfragmentation is a DID-only thing--not even OSDD systems are considered able to experience it according to a lot of folks, which we think is Bullshit, but i digress), with the assumption that the reader is disordered and wholly traumagenic and Also Hates Endos. (i mean, there's a reason we don't go into the polyfragmented tags ever)

our "1000+" number we have is an estimate based on the three active sidesystems (especially with a lot of undiscovered members in Dreadwood), but we're fairly certain there's more in other sidesystems & layers we have yet to discover/explore. right now, we're mostly just taking the time to parse what's right in front of us, and once that's settled we'll start looking more into other stuff, so at the moment, we're okay with not having an estimate for our full size.

we wish you luck and safety and good things! sorry for the rambling, we tried to clean it up and make it as short as we could :'}