#s-curves
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An end to the climate emergency is in our grasp

On June 20, I'm keynoting the LOCUS AWARDS in OAKLAND.
The problem with good news in the real world is that it's messy. Neat happy endings are for novels, not the real world, and that goes double for the climate emergency. But even though good climate news is complicated and nuanced, that doesn't mean it shouldn't buoy our spirits and fill our hearts with hope.
The big climate news this past week is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's clarion call about surging CO2 levels – the highest ever – amid a year that is on track to have the largest and most extreme series of weather events in human history:
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/during-year-of-extremes-carbon-dioxide-levels-surge-faster-than-ever
This is genuinely alarming and you – like me – have probably experienced it as a kind of increase in your background radiation of climate anxiety. Perhaps you – like me – even experienced some acute, sit-bolt-upright-in-bed-at-2AM anxiety as a result. That's totally justifiable. This is very real, very bad news.
And yet…
The news isn't all bad, and even this terrible dispatch from the NOAA is best understood in context, which Bill McKibben provides in his latest newsletter post, "What You Want is an S Curve":
https://billmckibben.substack.com/p/what-you-want-is-an-s-curve
Financier and their critics should all be familiar with Stein's Law: "anything that can't go on forever will eventually stop." This is true outside of finance as well. One of the reasons that we're seeing such autophagic panic from the tech companies is that their period of explosive growth is at an end.
For years, they told themselves that they were experiencing double-digit annual growth because they were "creating value" and "innovating" but the majority of their growth was just a side-effect of the growth of the internet itself. When hundreds of millions of people get online every year, the dominant online services will, on average, gain hundreds of millions of new users.
But when you run out of people who don't have internet access, your growth is going to slow. How can it not? Indeed, at that point, the only ways to grow are to either poach users from your rivals (through the very expensive tactics of massive advertising and sales-support investments, on top of discounts and freebies as switching enticements), or to squeeze your own users for more.
That's why the number of laptops sold in America slowed down. It's why the number of cellphones sold in America slowed down. It's why the number of "smart home" gizmos slowed down.
Even the steepest hockey-stick-shaped exponential growth curve eventually levels off and becomes an S-curve, because anything that can't go on forever will eventually stop.
One way or another, the world's carbon emissions will eventually level off. Even if we drive ourselves to (or over) the brink of extinction and set up the conditions for wildfires that release all the carbon stored in all the Earth's plants, the amount of carbon we pump into the atmosphere has to level off.
Rendering the Earth incapable of sustaining human civilization (or life) is the ultimate carbon reduction method – but it's not my first choice.
That's where McKibben's latest newsletter comes in. He cites a new report from the Rocky Mountain Institute, which shows a major reversal in our energy sources, a shift that will see our energy primarily provided by renewables, with minimal dependence on fossil fuels:
https://rmi.org/insight/the-cleantech-revolution/
The RMI team says that in this year or next, we'll have hit peak demand for fossil fuels (a fact that is consistent with NOAA's finding that we're emitting more CO2 than ever). The reason for this is that so much renewable energy is about to come online, and it is so goddamned cheap, that we are about to undergo a huge shift in our energy consumption patterns.
This past decade saw a 12-fold increase in solar capacity, a 180-fold increase in battery storage, and a 100-fold increase in EV sales. China is leading the world in a cleantech transition, with the EU in close second. Cleantech is surging in places where energy demand is also still growing, like India and Vietnam. Fossil fuel use has already peaked in Thailand, South Africa and every country in Latin America.
We're on the verge of solar constituting an absolute majority of all the world's energy generation. This year, batteries will overtake pumped hydro for energy storage. Every cleantech metric is growing the way that fossil fuels did in previous centuries: investment, patents, energy density, wind turbine rotor size. The price of solar is on track to halve (again) in the next decade.
In short, cleantech growth looks like the growth of other technologies that were once rarities and then became ubiquitous overnight: TV, cellphones, etc. That growth isn't merely being driven by the urgency of the climate emergency: it's primarily a factor of how fucking great cleantech is:
https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/the_incredible_inefficiency_of_fossils.pdf
Fossil fuels suck. It's not just that they wreck the planet, or that their extraction is both politically and environmentally disastrous. They just aren't a good way to make energy. About a third of fossil fuel energy is wasted in production and transportation. A third! Another third is wasted turning fossil fuels into energy. Two thirds! The net energy efficiency of fossil fuels is about 37%.
Compare that with cleantech. EVs convert electricity to movement with 80-90% efficiency. Heat pumps are 300% efficient (the main fuel for your heat pump is the heat in the atmosphere, not the electricity it draws).
Cleantech is just getting started – it's still in the hockey-stick phase. That means those efficiency numbers are only going up. Rivian just figured out how to remove 1.6 miles of copper wire from each vehicle. That's just one rev – there's doubtless lots of room for more redesigns that will further dematerialize EVs:
https://insideevs.com/news/722265/rivian-r1s-r1t-wiring/
As McKibben points out, there's been a lot of justifiable concern that electrification will eventually use up all our available copper, but copper demand has remained flat even as electrification has soared – and this is why. We keep figuring out new ways to electrify with fewer materials:
https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/copper-wire-price-remains-stable-amidst-surplus-supply-and-expanding-mining-25416#:~:text=Global%20Copper%20wire%20Price%20Remains%20Stable%20Amidst%20Surplus%20Supply%20and%20Expanding%20Mining%20Activities
This is exactly what happened with previous iterations of tech. The material, energy and labor budgets of cars, buildings, furniture, etc all fell precipitously every time there was a new technique for manufacturing them. Renewables are at the start of that process. There's going to be a lot of this dematerialization in cleantech. Calculating the bill of materials for a planetary energy transition isn't a matter of multiplying the materials in current tech by the amount of new systems we'll need – as we create those new systems, we will constantly whittle down their materials.
What's more, global instability drives cleantech uptake. The Russian invasion of Ukraine caused a surge in European renewables. The story that energy prices are rising due to renewables (or carbon taxes) is a total lie. Fossil fuels are getting much more expensive, thanks to both war and rampant, illegal price-fixing:
https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/an-oil-price-fixing-conspiracy-caused
If not for renewables, the incredible energy shocks of the recent years would be far more severe.
The renewables story is very good and it should bring you some comfort. But as McKibben points out, it's still not enough – yet. The examples of rapid tech uptake had big business on their side. America's living rooms filled with TV because America's largest businesses pulled out all the stops to convince everyone to buy a TV. By contrast, today's largest businesses – banks, oil companies and car companies – are working around the clock to stop cleantech adoption.
We're on track to double our use of renewables before the decade is over. But to hold to the (already recklessly high) targets from the Paris Accord, we need to triple our renewables usage. As McKibben says, the difference between doubling and tripling our renewables by 2030 is the difference between "survivable trouble" and something much scarier.
The US is experiencing a welcome surge in utility scale solar, but residential solar is stalling out as governments withdraw subsidies or even begin policies that actively restrict rooftop solar:
https://twitter.com/curious_founder/status/1798049929082097842?s=51
McKibben says the difference between where we are now and bringing back the push for home solar generation is the difference between "fast" and "faster" – that is the difference between tripling renewables by 2030 (survivable) and doubling (eek).
Capitalism stans who argue that we can survive the climate emergency with market tools will point to the good news on renewable and say that the market is the only way to transition to renewables. It's true that market forces are partly responsible for this fast transition. But the market is also the barrier to a faster (and thus survivable) transition. The oil companies, the banks who are so invested in fossil fuels, the petrostates who distort the world's politics – they're why we're not much farther along.
The climate emergency was never going to be neatly solved. We weren't going to get a neat novelistic climax that saw our problems sorted out in a single fell swoop. We're going to be fighting all the way to net zero, and after that, we'll still have decades of climate debt to pay down: fires, floods, habitat loss, zoonotic plagues, refugee crises.
But we should take our wins. Even if we're far from where we need to be on renewables, we're much farther along on renewables than we had any business hoping for, just a few years ago. The momentum is on our side. It's up to us to use that momentum and grow it. We're riding the hockey-stick, they're on that long, flat, static top of the S-curve. Their curve is leveling off and will start falling, ours will grow like crazy for the rest of our lives.
If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this post to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:
https://pluralistic.net/2024/06/12/s-curve/#anything-that-cant-go-on-forever-eventually-stops
#pluralistic#s-curves#bill mckibben#climate emergency#renewables#energy transition#energy#solar#wind#fossil fuels#climate
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JINX!! ❌
#arcane#arcane s2#arcane fanart#jinx#jinx arcane#league of legends#riot games#my art#artists on tumblr#finally got around to drawing some arcane art!! loved this show#finished this during my work break so hope you enjoy#pretty happy with how it turned out#she got that S curve in her#LOL#also yes i did edit this and add stripes to her little belt thing days later bc it was bothering me that i forgot
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Pretend this caption is a [sparkle emoji] only haha.
#danika doodles#ace attorney#my goal for this piece was to add as many 'diamond shapes with S curves inside of them' as possible
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Cultural exchange
#reverse 1999#r1999#digital art#fanart#i cant say i am VERY satisfied with this ngl#i just wish my art could look smooth with those smooth brushes but i cannot get used to those for the life of me#so i just used the pencil brush i always use (HB pencil on procreate)#anyways this is an idea ive had for a while and one that had gone through a ton of drafts? to get a good comp?#i was going to draw that but the inside was …it was too hars i gave up on it#talking about the mathematics in nature or something#idk also math in music essentially i remember one of 6’s suitcase dialogue lines involving calculations to produce music#the inside of a nautilus shell looks like a logarithmic curve hence the curve on the drawing#i was going to draw the shell itself but it proved difficult with this brush#idk those big smooth brushes seem ideal for creating a false sense of detail bc the color blocking makes it work#idk if that made much sense…
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We've still got each other, which means we're gonna be okay.
#im sorry#but look! baby's first edit!#im trying 😅#its a learning curve#a huge one#all that aside#i love that all three of them associate these gestures with comfort#Eddie cups Christopher's cheek so Chris cups Buck's#Eddie grasps Buck's shoulder so Buck grasps Eddie's#the silent “I love you”s are just as heard as any verbal one#i made a comment the other day that buck associates the shoulder grab with comfort- a place to ground himself#so he hopes doing it for Eddie can help him#im just#im really emotional about my boys 🥺🥺🥺#911#buddie#evan buckley#eddie diaz#christopher diaz#buckley diaz family#911edit#my edit#911 abc#911 spoilers#9-1-1#s7#eddie x buck#buck x eddie#buddieedit#and after that sneak peek this is even more !!!!!!!!!!!
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Imagine your f/o giving you a hug that lasts for a long time. They hold onto you tightly and press their face into your shoulder. Their arms hold you against them.
ANTIS DNI, THIS ISN'T FOR YOU
#🎙The representative from California has the floor#antis go away#antis fuck off#anti anti#antis do not interact#antishitters dni#proship#proship safe#proship positivity#proshipper safe#proship please interact#f/o#s/i#self ship#proselfship#selfship#selfshipping#f/o imagines#imagine your f/o#Hnnngh 🦊 🤤🤤🤤🤤🤤🤤#Those big muscular arms#And that toned body#Mmh#And 💜#It's the same scenario#Or 👩🦰#And those delicious curves of hers#The way they mold perfectly with mine#Like two puzzle pieces coming together perfectly#Ooooohhhhh
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He's just a silly spider. 🕸
(Looking through my old art and found this screenshot redraw I did of the Pilot's storyboard from Perry Hull's video.)
Reference:

#zexal-bunny20's art#hazbin hotel#alastor#angel dust#radiodust#(i guess?)#hazbin hotel alastor#hazbin hotel angel dust#digital art#redraw#(bro this is so old! you can tell cuz i didnt give angel curves. XD)
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#neve gallus#da veilguard#dragon age the veilguard#virtual photography#gamingedit#pc gaming#video games#screenshot#mine#mydatvedit#mynevegallus#the hair artist(s) KNEW what they were doing with those loose strands that curve at the right angles#also her hair looks so SOFT here
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playing cultist simulator to escape the Looming Dread in real life to only have to avoid the Dread That Kills You in-game by going to the club and grinding out that sweet, sweet contentment so you don't fall into despair and kill yourself.
#it's a card game about gothic horrors set in 1920's london but also the learning curve is balls to the walls crazy. i have 10 hours into it#and i still don't know how to increase my lore efficiently.#also connie lee fucked me up by arresting me which was a game over but also ??????#MAN i thought i could cheese the early game but maybe not i guess#cultist simulator
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Some Sea Beast self ship stuff!! I've always wanted to draw a rly pretty underwater kiss scene and I was kinda winging it with lighting in this one but I overall like how it turned out! 🥺💖
Plus some simple ref of my s/i + my s/i doing whale eye cause I thought that would be funny hehe
Taglist♡: @me-myself-and-my-fos @tiny-cloud-of-flowers @sunstar-of-the-north @dearly-beeloved @adoredbyalatus @changeling-selfship @crushes-georg @miutonium @cherry-bomb-ships @rosieaurora @rejaytionships @sunflawyer @in-true-blue-love @tropicalgothships @cupiidzbow
#artfarts#self insert#self ship#self insert community#self ship community#self insert x canon#oc x canon#fictional other#the sea beast#netflix#jacob holland#🌊 how deep is your love? 🌊#i also tried to get like...as accurate as possible to my irl body type!! 👉👈#partly to prove that i could and partly because my chubbiness lends well to the selkie design x3#i gotta show more love to my curves and rolls in my s/i designs tbh!!!#OURGGGHHH JACOB 🥺🥺💖💖💖 HES SO HANDSOME AND CAPABLE#i rly do gotta draw more stuff but im not getting MANY ideas just like some lore bouncing around in my head#not to mention im kinda getting pulled in all directions regarding f/os anfjf#im not PARTICULARLY fixated on any one thing but itll come to me im sure!!#i just happen to think abt jacob a bit more during the summer hehe
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I remembered I have some interesting photos on my gallery since 2021

THE SUNSET CURVE DEMO
I found the photos randomly on a site
What was interesting to me was the description on the demo. They met at high school (apparently they didn’t study at Los Feliz) and formed the band while being students (which was obvious)
It’s such a same we never heard Late Last Night, Lakeside Reflection and In Your Starlight
+ I love this photoshooting so much🥹
#julie and the phantoms#reggie peters#alex mercer#jatp#luke patterson#jatp netflix#julie molina#jatp season 2#reggie jatp#alex jatp#bobby shaw#bobby wilson#trevor wilson#disney save jatp#jatp cast#sunset curve#now or never#i want to see flashbacks of them from 90’s so bad#california#los feliz#I want to hear the demo so bad#Netflix I hate you so much
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Serious
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one of these days I will fully articulate an essay on the costume design in the terror (for crozier specifically because I have so many brainworms about it) but it is not this day
#bro I just think it's super neat that his style of dress is distinctly stuff from about 10 even 20 years before the expedition set sail#and how that's a deliberate choice for the character because he's a broke ass bitch and wouldn't be able to afford new shit!!!!#it really speaks to his practicality!!! a lot of his stuff is mended!!! his shirt is more of an 1830's style than an 1840's style#(re: jfj's shirt that he wears when he's dying is more typical of a shirt made in the 1840's with that big pleated plaquet- vs crozier with#his shirt with a cut-out curved collar is more distinctively 1830's maybe even earlier)#also the stuff he was wearing in the sophia flashback was way more REGENCY than victorian#sorry. infinite brainworms about this all the time and always#and I love it now when costume designers get this kind of shit RIGHT and that you can actually SEE it)#francis crozier#the terror
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