davidrobertsblog

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David Roberts Blogs and Websites  -  Now moved to new homes

My blog posts now (from July 2020) appear mainly at 

www.davidrobertsblog.com 

I’m still concerned about the terrible human and economic costs and consequences of war and am mostly lost for words on this topic, but I think there are times when ordinary folk may usefully take a stand on an issue - like on the gigantic costs of our nuclear weapons. These thoughts appear at 

www.rememberingwar.com

My war poetry website and my war poetry books are still very much alive at 

www.warpoetry.uk

This replaces the website that was largely destroyed by hackers. www.warpoetry.co.uk.

and my wife, Julie’s website is still active waiting for the fear of corona virus to subside so the she may sing again. A number of gigs have been postponed. Latest developments will appear at 

www.julierobertsmusic.co.uk

Thank you for your interest. There are a lot of new items appearing on my new, sparkling blogsite.

David Roberts. 2 October 2020.

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TOILET CRISIS AT THE SEASIDE

Thousands are heading for beaches while pub n cafe toilets are closed.

We went to Shoreham beach in Sussex last week. Car parks full and overflowing. The beaches had thousands of people on them, mainly families observing social distancing and quietly enjoying the sea and the sun, and as far as we could see, leaving no litter. But public toilets were closed. Outrageous! 

The existing grubby old toilets have needed replacing for years, but now the council needs to bring in emergency toilets such as they use at festivals (only modified to suit new health requirements) while new permanent toilets are quickly built. 

We need ADVANCED toilets NOW with sensors to control water flow instead of taps and similar sensors to operate toilet flushes. Such toilets are already widely in use in forward thinking venues. 

Facemasks should be worn. People could bring ”wet-wipes” to wipe seats so long as they binned the wipes rather than block the toilets and pollute the sea.

The alternative is !!!  Going back to  medieval times when towns were like farmyards. It happened for a few days last week. Action is needed in days. This is a problem that will not go away. In the 21st century we can surely do better.The huge revenues from car parks can fund the work.

David Roberts, 29 June 2020.Picture shows Bournemouth beach last week.

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Great film now on BBC i-player

In the wake of the George Floyd tragedy in America this powerful documentary is one that the whole world should see. It demonstrates so clearly what has been happening to black people in the US over a long period and up to the present time. Needless to say some of it you will find shocking and shameful.

Now available on bbc i-player plus Amazon Prime etc

David Roberts 23 June 2020

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“Children are at very little risk of infection” -  Professor Russell Viner, President of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health

Professor Russell Viner of the UCL Institute of Child Health and President of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health told MailOnline: 'What we know about the novel coronaviruses, including COVID-19, is children are at very little risk of infection.

'Children probably catch it as much as adults but most children either have no symptoms or incredibly mild symptoms.

'If children do catch catch the virus, most do not get any symptoms. 

'Most of those that do develop symptoms only experience mild effects, such as a slight fever, some aches and pains and a bit of a cough.

Daily Mail online 18 March 2020

So if children are at only the slightest of risks surely they don’t need to keep apart. And actually, I would think that it would be socially and psychologically harmful to bring children up to fear close contact with others or believe that the air they breathe is contaminated, that shared objects like books may be a health hazard. Such behaviour is so unnatural that only a truly great danger should lead us to treat children in this way. And covid-19 is of minimal danger to children.

College and University Students

These are of very little risk too so that the attempt to keep students apart is also unnecessary as well as being unworkable, inhuman, and socially and psychologically undesirable.

Statistics giving the evidence behind this claim can be found elsewhere in this blogsite.

David Roberts, 17 June 2020

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Corona Virus, “The impact on children is minuscule in terms of their health.” -  Dr Gavin Morgan.

Dr Gavin Morgan

Dr Gavin Morgan, an expert in educational psychology at University College London, said the impact of spending a prolonged period out of education was “100 per cent” worse than Covid-19.

“We know how important play is for children’s development,” he told the Sunday Telegraph, 8 June.. “If they can’t play with their friends, their mental health is going to suffer.

He also said that parents’s anxiety about sending their children back to school was “misplaced”.

“We know children have a less challenging disease if they do pick it up,” added Dr Morgan, who sits on the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours (SPI-B), which feeds in to Sage (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies).

DR 18 June 2020

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Coriolanus, National Theatre Live Streaming, June 2020

If you missed the National Theatre’s recent live streaming of Coriolanus then you saved yourself an unpleasant evening.

It showed us unpleasant and disagreeable people disagreeing -  arrogant, insensitive, inhumane, psychopathic, violent, unjust, uncaring, bullying, manipulative, cruel. Coriolanus is not a cheery play and certainly not one I would wish to see again.

Especially at the start, actors seemed to think that shouting the lines equated with good acting. For my liking lines were delivered too fast so comprehension was reduced.

Coriolanus has a thin storyline and there was the usual problem with Shakespeare that he had far too many words.

Most characters had no discernible character to reveal. The only people with some depth were Caius Marcius  (Coriolanus)  and Volumnia, his mother. Menenius, Coriolanus’s friend, was an interesting man who was played as the Jacob Rees-Mogg of ancient Rome. All three were impressively acted  -   by Tom Hiddleston, Deborah Findlay and Mark Gatiss.

The play lacked subtlety and depth. -. It was just brutally violent and nasty. The issues were simple power politics, principally the exploitative rich vs the deserving poor.

I think, now, that I have probably seen enough Shakespeare plays for one lifetime.

David Roberts, 17th June 2020.

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Impressive film about American realities

This is a film everyone should see. It is compelling and sometimes shocking. It is based on writing by the black American writer and intellectual, James Baldwin. It is primarily about the assassination of three of his friends and includes archive footage of Baldwin himself.

It goes some way to explain the strength of feeling that has erupted in the USA and around the world since the killing of George Floyd.

Available to stream from YouTube and Amazon and no doubt elsewhere.

David Roberts, 10 June, 2020 Please share.

https://twitter.com/RobsDave

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England's coronavirus outbreak shrinks

England's coronavirus outbreak shrinks dramatically in the week May 17 to May 30: Office for National Statistics Official statistics suggest only 0.1% of the population is/are infected, about half the rate of the previous week.

The data is based on 21 positive swab tests from 19,723 study participants taken between  May 17 and May 30.

Why have numbers fallen? It can't be that people are more conscientiously practising social distancing. Could it be that, though nastier and more deadly, this virus is behaving like winter flu viruses and fading away of its own accord?

Any ideas?

David Roberts, 5 June 2020  Twitter @RobsDave

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Ightham Mote, Medieval Manor House in Kent

Late entry! This was stuck in my drafts folder for a couple of years or so but when they open up again after the virus it would be well worth a visit.

Ightham (pronounced “item”)  Mote  is a house in Kent, UK, over 650 years old. It is hidden away in a wooded valley in a forested region of Kent. The house itself is surrounded by a moat. Address: Mote Road, Ivy Hatch, Sevenoaks, Kent, TN15 0NT Situated 11 miles south east of Tunbridge Wells.

For 600 years this was a family home. Now it belongs to the National Trust having been given to the National Trust by its last owner, a wealthy American, Charles Henry Robinson, in 1965.

The inner courtyard with the Great Danes kennel.

It is a remarkable and charming manor house. The oldest timbers within it date from around 1330. The first stage of the building was the east side of the quadrangle and it took about another hundred years before the four sides were completed to enclose a courtyard.

Part of a lounge.

There are pleasant gardens, large lawns, a lake and a picnic area, plus a moderately priced restaurant which all help to make the Ightham Mote an enjoyable place to visit. It is open to the public every day of the year except Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. 

For full details visit www.Nationaltrust.org.uk/ighthammote  .

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A child’s first day back in school after 8 weeks of covid lockdown

What it was really like for one child returning to school after the covid lockdown  -   by a friend in Burgess Hill who has a year-6 daughter. Parents may find this encouraging. Clearly the teachers are working very hard to do their best for the children in very difficult and demanding conditions.

Tuesday 2 June. "K went back to school today as a year 6 pupil. They were asked to take only a sun hat, water bottle and packed lunch with them. Start, lunch and end times (probably breaks too) were staggered to stop too many people being on the premises at once. There were 8 kids in her "bubble" class, she had her current teacher and TA, each child had their own desk/table. On their desk they had a tray with all the stationery they need so they they do not need to share.

There are coloured dots on the playground floor and outside the school for parents, 2m apart. The kids follow the dots the colour of their class around the perimeter of the playground and into their allotted classroom. There is an open space the classroom opens out onto, like a grass area which they use for break time and lunch and some lesson time I believe will be spent outside. Today they talked about how what they have been doing, what they appreciate now (time with friends, how cool school actually is, the NHS etc) and named their bubble, sorted out their new routine and came up with games at break time that they can play without touching. On the school field they have areas coned off which is where their "bubbles" can go, which means they can speak to their friends who are not in their bubble. (There are 8 other children from the same class, they currently have their year 5 teacher and TA so they are also happy!)

K said she did not go into the corridors once today, or their cloakroom. They have a special order that the kids in her bubble go in to wash their hands when they go in or out of the classroom, the one nearest the door first to wash hands and move out the way etc. They have been encouraged to only be positive with each other and to be kind, which is probably much easier with 8, rather than 28! They will ease the kids into this new routine and then start back with the learning.

What I saw looked very organised and not at all scary, and what she told me about the day was exciting and she had a skip in her step and a smile on her face which she hasn't had for the last couple of months. She saw her friends, could play with them and they made up new games like tag but from a distance using rock paper scissors to decide who is I

IT, they were reassured not to be scared, her emotional well-being was forefront in the school's plan and the teachers were delighted to be able to welcome the children back and to teach them again. I think today may have been her Best Day Ever.

I am not writing this to influence anyone to what they should do for their children, I thought that my friends may think it is interesting and may wonder how schools are dealing with the return to school. It is easy to see images of kids sat alone in chalk outlines looking sad, but that was not K's experience today. Do whatever you feel is right for you and your family,

K going back to school was the right decision for her, and for us. Whatever you do, stay safe and don't be a dick."

By a friend.

David Roberts, 4 June 2020. Please share my posts. I would like to hear your views too.

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Closing Norway’s Schools May Have Been a Mistake

Norway's Prime Minister has second thoughts about closing Norway's Schools.

FROM TODAY'S DAILY TELEGRAPH

On Wednesday night, Norway's prime minister Erna Solberg went on Norwegian television to make a startling admission: she had panicked. Some, even most, of the tough measures imposed in Norway's lockdown now looked like steps too far. "Was it necessary to close schools?" she mused. "Perhaps not."  

Was it a mistake for the UK? David Roberts

2 June 2020  

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Safe for children to return to school

The most convincing evidence that it is safe for children to return to school is seldom presented, so please see the chart below which shows Office of National Statistics evidence.

How are we educating our children? To fear coming near to another human being in case they catch a deadly disease? To believe that the very air is potentially lethal? That toys, educational equipment, and books cannot be shared because of the terrible danger of catching a deadly infection? To be obsessive about hand washing? To grow up anxious and deeply fearful of the world?   This is not healthy or appropriate education.                                                                                Picture Philadelphia Inquirer

Experience covering the height of the outbreak shows that for people under 44 there is far less risk of dying from Covid than from accidents or other diseases. For under 14s experience suggests just one chance in 5 million of death from covid..

For most people covid-19 is a mild illness

In any case, though not often mentioned, most people who have the infection have just a mild illness, the exceptions being mainly those with existing serious health problems and the elderly.

The major conclusion to be drawn from the evidence

Children are so safe from the virus that there can be no need for social-distancing or face-masks or spaced-out half-size classes. Children can be educated as normal children have been educated throughout history  -  together  -  learning to live and work together.

Will children bring the virus home or infect their teachers?

There appears to be little risk here but there can be no conclusive evidence on this topic. We can say that healthy working age teachers and parents are not likely to die from the disease, but there is some evidence that children are rarely carriers of the disease.

Evidence of negligible transmission of corona by very young children

59 nursery schools attached to the NHS have stayed open throughout the outbreak of the disease in the UK. They reported only three confirmed cases of Covid-19 and no transmission between pupils of the disease.(The Times, 16 May 2020)

Some observations from The Times of May 23 2020

Only one outbreak of Covid-19 in France has been traced back to a school

A small study in New South Wales showed that no teachers caught the virus from students.

Clusters of infections in China suggested that children had been the source about 10% of the time.

Professor Viner (Professor of Adolescent Health at University College London) said that an Office of National Statistics study suggests that few children are infected. “It suggests that the prevalence of the virus among children  . . . is only around one in 400.”

We need a positive approach to opening up and normalising education  - No social distancing, no masks, no half-size classes, no irrational fears.

David Roberts 1 June 2020  (Some year groups in Primary Education in UK schools will be returning to school today.) 

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The greatest threat to our civilisation today  -  social distancing

Social Distancing has already trashed our economy and ruined many lives. It is the greatest threat to our way of life: prosperity, employment, business, education, the arts, travel, religions, pubs and restaurants, holiday industries, festivals.BBC News and the media in general should focus on this issue.

No theatre, no restaurant, no pub, no educational establishment, few shops and businesses can function properly, normally and economically viable so long as social distancing is maintained.

Not a big risk for most people -  The media have presented an unbalanced picture of our risk

Corona virus is very dangerous for very ill people and especially elderly people who are already ill and brings a quick end to many vulnerable people. There is no doubt that many have had their death hastened by the virus. Nevertheless the daily flow of death statistics have been presented to us out of context. This has given the impression that we are all in grave danger not just of catching the disease but also of dying from it.

Most of us are far more likely to die from accidents or other illnesses or simply old age. The statistics of what has happened in recent weeks and how the death rate from covid compares with the five year average from other causes is available. It shows that the healthy under 65 age group (although they may well get the virus) are very unlikely to die from it as compared with the risk of dying from other causes. The statistics appear below this article.

Who do we need to protect?

The elderly with health problems and anyone else who is seriously ill, need to be protected from contact with the corona virus and also health workers who are dealing with corona cases and the sick and the elderly.

So is social distancing necessary for the population of working age?

My view is that schools, colleges and universities should not only be open but be fully functioning with no social distancing. Young people cannot develop normally at a distance of 2 metres from each other.

Will children carry the virus back to their parents? The evidence (which I haven’t space to present here) seems to suggest that children rarely transmit the disease. However, since most children’s parents are of relatively young age their risk of death form corona virus would be very slight anyway.

So long as access to older people is carefully managed the rest of life should also be returned to normal.

Have a look at the official statistics and see what conclusions you think may be drawn?

You can go to the source of this table with the accompanying analysis at Cambridge University Risk Communication

David Roberts, 28 May 2020

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Closer distancing. World Health Organisation advice - a quote from WHO website:

″Protecting yourself and others from the spread COVID-19

You can reduce your chances of being infected or spreading COVID-19 by taking some simple precautions:

Regularly and thoroughly clean your hands with an alcohol-based hand rub or wash them with soap and water. Why? Washing your hands with soap and water or using alcohol-based hand rub kills viruses that may be on your hands.

Maintain at least 1 metre (3 feet) distance between yourself and others. Why? When someone coughs, sneezes, or speaks they spray small liquid droplets from their nose or mouth which may contain virus. If you are too close, you can breathe in the droplets, including the COVID-19 virus if the person has the disease.”

Part of the advice from World Health Organisation website, 25 May 2020.  For full advice see https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

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Look at the facts that show children are safe from corona virus

A matter of profound importance for the education of young people

If you follow the facts (the scientific evidence) you can see that some age groups are at high risk of dying from corona virus (the elderly, especially those with dementia and Alzheimer’s disease) but those of working age have little risk of dying from it and for all practical purposes you can say that the under 24 age group has no risk of dying from corona virus.  Official statistics are below.

So why should young people practice social distancing? Because the government and the media has constantly put out scare stories about the corona virus and this has given the impression that everyone’ own death from it could be just around the corner. We are scared witless.

It’s not that the virus isn’t deadly to a minority of the older generations. IT IS DANGEROUS FOR THE SICKLY ELDERLY. Therefore they, and health workers dealing with them need special protection. BUT CHILDREN AND YOUNG PEOPLE ARE SAFE.

Corona deaths in proportion

The huge anxiety that is already experienced by a large portion of the UK population would be far greater if the daily death toll from other causes were also  published. So here are the figures.

“Between 1 March and 30 April 2020, there were 126,748 deaths that occurred in England and Wales and were registered by 5 May 2020. Of these, 26.7% involved the coronavirus (COVID-19) (33,841 deaths).” Source  Office of National Statistics web info 22 May 2020. 

To put these figure into rounded form we can say that in that two month period 34 thousand people died from covid-19 and 93 thousand died from other causes.

Office of National Statistics Age Specific mortality rates due to covid-19

Wouldn’t you agree that based on this evidence schools, colleges and universities should open and operate as normal?

David Roberts, 22 May 2020

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May/hawthorn trees on the Sussex Downs near Plumpton. Photo by Julie Roberts. May 2020.

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Local Head Teachers Should Welcome the Return of Pupils

Local head teachers (mid Sussex) are delaying opening their schools as they are worried about the risks. They need to  welcome the opportunity to open up their schools to pupils. 

Because of the relentless coverage of deaths from corona virus in the media we have got the dangers out of proportion. Children are extremely unlikely to suffer ill effects from the virus with even less chance of dying.They are at far greater risk on the roads of Britain and elsewhere. 

Social distancing for children and young people is often unworkable, is unnecessary and harmful to their education. Children need to learn to work with each other and co-operate. So, in my opinion, they should not be trying to practice the inhuman art of social distancing.

Ending social distancing

Social distancing is alien to human life, society, culture, and employment. At some point social distancing will have to stop or society will cease to function and the human race will die out. 

Although coronavirus is a killer disease it is a minor threat compared with heart disease which will kill one in four of us. This statistic should give us cause to think since we do not panic about the threat of heart disease nor about the fact that over 3,000 children under 18 die in the UK every year from non-corona causes.

For evidence of how few children are affected by corona virus see Worldometer info on the internet and the evidence of Chris Whittey, Chief Medical Adviser to the government, 12 May press briefing about 45 minutes into the BBC/YouTube recording.

Anne Longfield, The Children’s Commissioner for England says the Government’s plans are sensible. 

Many schools will re-open

Many academy trust schools, approximately a quarter of all primary schools in the UK will re-open on June 1st (The Times, 16 May 2020) All 670 prep schools that are members of the Independent Association of Prep Schools will re-open. (The Times, 16 May 2020) 

Some evidence of negligible transmission of corona by very young children

59 nursery schools attached to the NHS have stayed open throughout the outbreak of the disease in the UK. They reported only three confirmed cases of Covid-19 and no transmission between pupils of the disease.(The Times, 16 May 2020)

Further risk statistics  -  Getting the bigger picture 

In 30,000 or so deaths in England and Wales from the coronavirus in April only two children under 14 died with coronavirus being a contributing factor. (Office of National statistics) Infant mortality rate. Office of National Statistics 

There were 2,488 infant deaths (aged under 1 year) that occurred in England and Wales in 2018;

Over 3000 children under 18 die in the UK every year ONS  Statistics for 2017 

Swiss grandparents can now see their grandchildren. Link to BBC report https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52470838

David Roberts 18 May 2020