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Thoughts on Yahoo ADP (Picks 31-36)

‘31. Chris Carson: He is one of my favorite RB2s. If he remains healthy, you might be able to get away with him as an RB1. Again, Seahawks fired their OC for not running the ball enough. I think Pete Carroll does not let Russ cook as much as he did last season and will see less pass attempts and more rush attempts. Carson is built for the job and I know there are injury concerns so he’s justifiably an RB2 in my eyes. I’d reach for him earlier in round 3 if I don’t have a second RB.

32. Terry McLaurin: WFT offense in general is a bit questionable with Fitzpatrick as the starter for Week 1 (for now). McLaurin is an absolute stud and got over 1,000 yards, but he only had 4 TDs last year. Then WFT went and got more mouths to feed by picking up Curtis Samuel and drafting Dyami Brown. It’s possible his TDs go up this year but I think his receiving yards should regress with more weapons now than before.

33. Josh Allen: Josh Allen has improved significantly to become the fantasy MVP last year. I expect him to continue on this path and he provides a nice rushing floor as he can take it to the house with his feet. The Bills should be a high powered offense again but I still think Round 3 is the last place to get a decent RB1/RB2 core so his price tag is pretty high here. I would pick him up if he fell to the turn (pick 35+).

34. Allen Robinson: The Bears will likely continue with their QB controversies, but I doubt it’ll effect Robinson too much. He’s getting paid around $18M this year so expect him to get the ball. He’s a fine WR2, I’d take him over McLaurin and over Montgomery and Jacobs, too. I just don’t think the Bears are going to be as good passing-wise to the Chargers (Keenan Allen) so I like where he is now.

35. D’Andre Swift: He gets a bit of a downgrade moving from Stafford to Goff. I just can’t see the Lions being in the lead and having the luxury of game script to be in Swfit’s favor. Plus, the Lions went out and signed Jamaal Williams who is another great pass-catching back. I liked Swift last year and I like him as a player -- it’s just easy to see the Lions falling behind quickly and playing from behind pretty often this season. I wouldn’t trust him as my RB2 and carries more question marks than Montgomery and Jacobs.

36. Miles Sanders: If I was forced to, I may take Sanders as my RB2. Sanders really can take any run to the house at any given moment. The one looming issue would be that Jalen Hurts is also a very good runner and very capable of being a red-zone threat on his feet. I would only take him in the 3rd round if I had CMC or Dalvin as my RB1 though, which would mean you’d pick him at the turn (pick 25+), where it’s likely Carson and Dobbins would still be available and they’re more solid options there. I doubt Sanders falls to you at the end of round 4.

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Thoughts on Yahoo ADP (Picks 25-30)

25. Darren Waller: Beast -- up there with Kelce as an elite TE. He is their true number 1 receiving option and should continue to keep his enormous target share. I do think Round 3 is the last place I could pick up a legit RB2 though. If I had two stud RBs, I’m fine taking Waller here. I just think the first three rounds are that stacked.

26. J.K. Dobbins: Also a beast. Could have league leading results if he were in the right scheme. Unfortunately the Ravens insist on using Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson’s rushing ability does cap Dobbins. Dobbins is an excellent RB2.

27. George Kittle: I think there’s a bit of a gap in the TE position between Kelce/Waller and Kittle. The 9ers are likely still undecided on which QB will be the starter by the end of the season, but they went ahead and drafted Trey Sermon to back up for Mostert, which I believe is still an indicator that the 9ers will stick to running the ball with either a RB or a WR. Again, Round 3 is the last place to pick up a legit RB2 so I would prefer to have two stud RBs before picking up Kittle.

28. Keenan Allen: Justin Herbert is the full time starter for the Chargers and Anthony Lynn has been fired. Herbert will have a full offseason with Keenan and Mike Williams and I expect Keenan to be one of the top WRs in fantasy and love him in round 3.

29. David Montgomery: I don’t know if I trust him as my RB2 and consider him a reach here. His last couple games won some people their fantasy leagues but I believe he also had one of the easiest fantasy playoffs schedules for RBs. Other than that, he was pretty whatever last season even with as many carries as he got. The Bears have signed Damien Williams, who was great for Andy Reid and Tarik Cohen is returning from an injury so I expect the touch count to regress. Overall I don’t trust him as my RB2 -- I’d take him in the 4th round as my RB3 which is unlikely due to his fantasy playoffs performance.

30. Josh Jacobs: The Raiders traded away their whole OL and went and paid Kenyan Drake $11M for 2 years. It’s possible a Chubb-Hunt scenario could work out but I can’t imagine a brand new OL will be as good as the one they built in Cleveland. Jacobs had 12 TDs last year and Drake had 10. Either one of those numbers are going to regress or both will. I think it’s a coinflip and that’s hard to risk on for a RB2. I’d take him as an RB 3 in the 4th round, again, unlikely.

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Thoughts on Yahoo ADP (Picks 19-24)

19. D.K. Metcalf: I don’t necessarily think he’s elite (by fantasy standards) but he’d be fine as a WR1. Seahawks bring back a great offense in Russ/Carson/Metcalf/Lockett. Good to note though: Seahawks struggled a little towards the end of the season and fired their OC supposedly for not running the ball enough. This is enough to make me worry that the “Let Russ Cook” movement is going to regress from last year and we’ll see the Seahawks running the ball at least more than last year.

20. Calvin Ridley: My favorite WR target in the first two rounds due to how late you may be able to get him. We saw how great he was with half of Julio on the field with him. Atlanta does get Pitts but we’re talking about a 4-12 team from last year. I expect a lot of throwing again this year and Ridley could definitely sneak into Top WR stats by the end of the year. If I had any of the Top 7 RBs and Ridley I would be stacked.

21. Joe Mixon: I mean, I like him here. We still don’t know what he’ll see after a full offseason for Burrow and Ja’marr Chase but I am very big on the fact that Gio Bernard is no longer a Bengal. Joe Mixon provides a great outlet as a pass-catching back for Burrow, whose arm isn’t as powerful, and should be the lead back in Cincinnati. I think he goes well with any of the top 7 RBs, top 3 WRs, and Kelce.

22. Clyde Edwards-Helaire: CEH was certainly a letdown last year and his value as slipped considerably because so. But, KC got rid of Bell and Damien Williams and it looks like Andy Reid trusts CEH with the lead role. I don’t see Darrel Williams or Jerrick McKinnon as serious threats at all. Watching for his preseason injury here, but him and Mixon -- I believe they go fine with any of the top 7 RBs, top 3 WRs, and maybe Kelce (stacked bye week).

23. Justin Jefferson: I would be fine with Jefferson as my WR1. I think him, Metcalf, and A.J. Brown round out the next tier of receivers and are all pretty equal. Him and Kirk Cousins have great connection and I think that’ll continue to grow. Despite 1,400 yards he only had 7 TDs. I think that number could definitely go up.

24. A.J. Brown: A.J. Brown would have been D-Hop level if the Titans hadn’t signed Julio. I mentioned this with my comments on Derrick Henry but the Titans have so many options in the red zone, it’s really a toss-up what who Vrabel will give the TDs to. Julio just complicates this, so he’s maybe last of the three I just mentioned.

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Thoughts on Yahoo ADP (Picks 13-18)

13. Austin Ekeler: I’m excited to see what the Chargers do this season with a new head coach and Justin Herbert being trained off-season to be the Week 1 starter. I am high on Herbert having a fantastic situation and it bodes well for Ekeler. I believe the trio of Ekeler-Herbert-Allen should all outperform their ADPs and would not be mad at all drafting Ekeler early round 2. I still think he would pair better with a top 7 RB, instead of Kelce or a WR so it might be unlikely he’s available to you in round 2 if you have one of those earlier picks.

14. Stefon Diggs: He has great chemistry with Josh Allen and led the league in receptions and receiving yards. I don’t expect much to change and the Bills will continue to be one of the top scoring teams in the league. I would ideally like to get at least one RB in the first two rounds though as RB depth gets scarce quickly.

15. Antonio Gibson: Note, he’s coming back from turf toe. Like Saquon, there is tremendous upside with him, and there’s a lot of talk of him becoming the “CMC of WFT.” McKissic gets some work here and there but McKissic only had 1 rushing TD last year (+ 2 receiving TDs). On film though, McKissic is a pretty good 3rd down back and may limit Gibson’s touches. Again though, I think he would pair better with a top 7 RB and it is unlikely he’s available to you thate late in round 2 if you have one of those earlier picks.

16. Najee Harris: Damn his ADP rises fast! I definitely would love Najee Harris as my RB2. Ben’s arm isn’t necessarily the same and we saw how many touches they gave to Conner. Harris has the perfect opportunity to shine at Pittsburgh and is 6′2 and 227 pounds. Again, would prefer a top 7 RB with him.

17. Patrick Mahomes: Maybe if I already had CMC or Dalvin and am picking up Mahomes on the turn for round 3 (pick 25, unlikely). He’s generational and he’s the greatest talent in the league, but some of the RB positional drop-offs are so severe in rounds 4 and later, I just would rather wait on QB and pick up RBs or WRs in round 2.

18. DeAndre Hopkins: Stud. Best hands in the league. Greatest catch(es) of the season. I expect the Cardinals to be at least a decent offense and he’ll have one of the highest receiving stats in the league. I do believe a lot of red-zone opportunities may be shared with Kyler Murray’s rushing and this is the only reason he’s a slight tier under Adams/Hill/Diggs.

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Thoughts on Yahoo ADP (Picks 7-12)

7. Saquon Barkley: Upside is through the roof. I just don’t know if the Giants can get there. Saquon’s success will be largely tied to Daniel Jones making a sizeable Year 3 leap and I just would prefer not to bet my first round pick on DJ doing that. I just would rather take an elite WR or Kelce. I would consider him at Pick 12 and pick up another great RB at Pick 13.

8. Aaron Jones: Aaron Jones is probably the last I would consider as true RB1s. the Packers, once again, have refused to give Aaron Rodgers a true WR2 (maybe Amari Rodgers?) and will rely on plenty of goal-line carries to punch it in. AJ Dillon remains the only possible thorn to the side so I still affirm he’s the last of the elite RBs.

9. Jonathan Taylor: I bought into the hype last year. He wasn’t bad but I do think Colts OL (and I guess QB) health-wise is a little questionable. Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack return which might not scare too many people but I would just prefer more peace-of-mind with another pick in the first round. I would maybe take him if he fell to me in the later 2nd round (pick 22+) and I already secured CMC or Dalvin Cook. 

10. Davante Adams: Best cleats in the game. Best route-runner in the game. He should be locked in as your first elite WR. Few question marks that he will once again demonstrate monster target share.

11. Travis Kelce: You’ll likely be locked in to beat your opponents in the TE position every week. I would actually prefer him over an elite first-round WR for this reason and would probably take him after the top 7 RBs at pick 8. He’s just so integral to the Chief’s offense and you wouldn’t need to fill a bench spot with a TE2 and stash a WR instead.

12. Tyreek Hill: I don’t really believe Mecole Hardman (or any other Chiefs WR) is a legit WR2 on the offense. Him and Kelce command promising target share and Mahomes should feed them nicely. The Chiefs offense will continue to be one of the top scoring teams in the league.. I think Hill, Adams, and Diggs are all equal and are on a slightly higher tier than the other WRs.

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Thoughts on Yahoo ADP (Picks 1-6)

Christian McCaffrrey: Pick him 1 and don’t look back. Barring an injury, he’s essentially a lock-in as everyone’s favorite. I’d pick up Chuba Hubbard as a handcuff.

Dalvin Cook: Pick him 2 and don’t look back part ii.I would probably try to make sure I pick up Mattison around Round 11.

Derrick Henry: Obviously a beast. But TDs get the most points and the Titans just have too many red zone options -- especially with Julio. Tannehill had 7 rushing TDs last season by the way.

Alvin Kamara: I do like Kamara here but NO’s QB situation is still looking a little shaky but Michael Thomas being injured gives me enough to like Kamara here. Taysom Hill started 8 games and had 8 Rushing TDs and 1 Receiving TD -- Taysom Hill definitely would take some upside away from Kamara.

Ezekiel Elliott: I may even reach as far as pick 3 for Zeke this year. The Cowboys OL should be coming back and Dak returns to power the offense. With that terrible injury Dak had last year, I doubt he’ll be as active taking goal-line carries and Zeke should return to form, scoring double digit TDs.

Nick Chubb: “The best pure runner in the NFL.” I would actually place Chubb over Kamara in Non-PPR formats. I’m not too afraid of Hunt as I expect the Browns to continue pounding the rock this season and help keep Baker in comfortable situations. I like him more than Derrick Henry and Kamara and maybe tied with Zeke as my favorite 3rd pick.

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Joshua Tree gets snow

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What a special special thing the folks over at SubSessions are doing. Thank you for Night Life Savings 2019

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coffee and ideal situation 2 & 3

number 2, morning. when you pour your coffee out and it’s too hot. but you gotta poo so you go poo and then you come back to perfect temperature coffee

number 3, evening. when you fiendin for caffeine but you don’t wanna stay up forever. so you just refill the coffee machine with water and use the already-been-used ground coffee. boom. watered-down coffee

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ideal situation #1

s/o to the times when your roommate cooks too much food and it smelled good and then he offers you some