#ASOIAF Analysis

[mega-ringsandthings-world]

Okay. I know the general consensus is not this, but if Catelyn had been told the truth about Jon from the get go, she would have treated him better. Relatively. Like, she wouldn't have gave him shit for being a bastard or been ice queen bitch stepmother to him, but uh. there would have been other issues. Just think about how having Catelyn aboard the hide-Jon-train would go for one second. For one second. Okay? We are talking about Catelyn fucking Stark nee Tully. And we are also talking about Catelyn fucking Stark nee Tully before the other four kids came along. Just her baby Robb and Ned and Ned's nephew. (and if you don't think that Ned saving Jon from under Robert's nose on a promise to his sister wouldn't make I-released-the- king-slayer-to-bring-back-my-daughters-Catelyn fall so hard in love with him her head is still ringing fifteen years later you are LYING to yourselves) So think mother gothel. She would have micromanaged the shit out of Jon's life and upbringing. Ned is pretty lax so as security measures go in terms of Jon, but Cat? Winterfell would get turned into FBI headquarters. Vibe checks at the door and retina scanners and Jon and Robb have a praetorian guard on their cradles. Yeah she'd be cool to Jon in public as he grows but in private she's frantically brushing his hair every night looking for whites. Holding him up to the light to check for hints of purple in his eyes. As they get older she namedrops bastard a lot but secretly actively fosters a relationship between Jon and the other kids because Catelyn-Sansa-will-be-queen-of-the-seven-kingdoms-Stark nee Tully knows about the pact of Ice and Fire and having one of the last Targs bouncing around is tickling the politician in her. That being said she institutes a book ban on Targ history and is always on Ned's ass about them playing dragons. When Arya is gets old enough she makes it a point to put her and Jon next to each other at all times. Jon getting a direwolf are goddammed holy blessing to her. When Robert's dump ass comes to visit she's having a conniption about Jon being recognized and nearly locks his ass in the crypts until he decides of his own free will to sit in the cheap seats before she blows a gasket. She hates the Wall idea because who the Fuck is going to watch this kid as well as she's been doing for the past fifteen years? WHO? If she had found out about Aemon being up there she's have blown up castle black. Jon, who has had to deal with this shit since attaining spatial awareness tries to get Benjen to let him take his night's watch vows at Winterfell's weirwood. Man wants OUT. He can't deaal with tiger mom ass no more. When he comes to visit Bran she slips and says something cryptic and weirdly affectionate and it puts his ass in a tailspin all the way to the Wall.

Like, I know people think it'd go more downhill if she knew about Jon but why? Boring. Uninspired. Booooo. Get fun with it.

[witheredoffherwitch]

Targaryens: Infamous End Inevitable.

This entire discourse on Jaehaera is so laughably absurd. I love my Green characters, but I couldn't care less what the show does with Jaehaera's arc. Team Black loves to remind everyone that Rhaenyra's lineage survived while Team Green's perished. That is true... BUT not only did her sons separate themselves from their mother's legacy to keep the Lords happy, but they did nothing to elevate her name in any way after their supposed 'win'. Their mother's 'usurper' was perceived as the legitimate ruler while she was branded a traitor. Rhaenyra's legacy was so badly tarnished that even after her lineage lived on, no Targaryen descendent carried her name, despite the House's tendency of reusing names.

For me, the Dance tells the story of how House Targaryen ruined itself. They put their most powerful assets (Dragons) all in at once... only to become extinct in just over a century, while the other noble houses had been ruling Westeros for millennia. It doesn't matter whose line survives - if this doesn't make sense to you, then you are not intelligent enough to engage with any form of media. I'm content with the way things ended because ultimately, no one is triumphant.

Even if Jaehaera lives, her line still loses since it was Viserys II's line that eventually took over. No matter who ends up reigning, HOUSE TARGARYEN WILL BE DEAD! The last survivor of the house (barring Jon Snow) will make sure its legacy would be one of infamy. It will linger in Westeros like the Mussolini's monument, forever infamous.

Even if the books attempt to alter Dany's storyline, it would be idiotic to expect a Targaryen restoration. To those who foolishly believe that the books will be rewritten and the Targaryens will once again sit on the Iron Throne, then I've got a bridge in Pyongyang I'm looking to unload.

[jozor-johai]

Understading Sansa: how Songs make Culture in Westeros

Or: Life is not a Song, Sansa & Littlefinger, Part 0.

I'm working on something about Sansa and Littlefinger, but I realized: before we even start talking about Sansa, we have to understand where she's starting from. So this is sort of a prologue to that post (or posts), but this really stands alone as its own idea, so I'm doing something unusual for myself and sharing this before I finish the rest of it.

This examination of song could be a series in its own right, and maybe it should be, and perhaps even this is too quick an overview. Nevertheless, understanding Sansa requires at least a brief exploration into the place of songs in Westerosi culture. Besides Mordane’s intentional training, Sansa, like all people, is also surrounded by passive societal training which describes the roles she is supposed to play in life, even when not explicitly. This is culture, and the songs of Westeros all collectively build it, establishing expectations and defining what is “normal.” 

long-ish post so rest is under the cut

Tyrion even notes the way that children’s media helps form and reinforce cultural knowledge, though not directly in regard to song. He points out that the game “Come-into-my-Castle” is one way to passively introduce social lessons and cultural information into children's lives:

Come-into-my-castle was a game for highborn children, one meant to teach them courtesy, heraldry, and a thing or two about their lord father's friends and foes. (ADWD Tyrion IX)

But this is happening constantly, and even when the lessons are not being intentionally considered.

The Dornishman's Wife

The Dornishman’s Wife, for example, contains the encoded information that a man would kill another man for kissing his wife; therefore the song builds on the idea that wives are expected to be physically loyal to their lord husbands. Also, that for some reason (likely their status as effectively property), a woman's lack of perceived agency means they lack culpability, and that such infidelity is therefore justly punished through the killing of the other man involved—and so normalcy is regained and the story concluded. We might even say that because the characters are only the “Dornishman” and the undescribed protagonist, that the song is based on the idea of an otherized “Dornish.” (ASOS Jon I)

Off to Gulltown

Off to Gulltown tells a similar tale about women’s agency: it describes a man who will visit “Gulltown to see a fair maid” from whom he will “steal a kiss with the point of my blade” and then he will “make her my love.” (ASOS Arya II) All of these, again, are demands of the man in forming relations with a woman, and once again, this song explicitly combines the threat of violence with that of love. Here, there is no other man—the subject of the man’s violence is the woman herself. So, this song teaches that a man will threaten a woman with violence in order to get what he wants, and offers no information whatsoever about the intentions of the woman. The desires of the woman in this story are effectively irrelevant, which is messaging in itself: the man wants what he wants, and the woman comes with.

Knights

The preoccupation with knights in song similarly comes with this implicit threat of violence—knights carry swords, and when swords are not busy standing in as metaphoric phalluses, swords are... swords, and anyone around them need beware.

Any story of a knight that rescues a maiden carries with it the combined messaging of the previous two songs. On one hand, any sword and any knight potentially provides protection against other men, keeping the maiden from other, future violent advances. In practice, as in song, this is more for the man’s interest than the woman’s, as evident in The Dornishman’s Wife, which also makes no mention of the woman’s desires (though the protagonist of that tale certainly believes she was asking for it). On the other hand, that same sword can be used against that woman, as is the case in Off to Gulltown, and so that ‘rescue’ may not be so safe after all (much like Sansa's own trip to the Vale... hmm...) The songs reinforce the truth of the world. For men, knights make for great stories if you can be a knight. For women, the lesson is what to expect: being with a knight means accepting certain realities. 

Which perhaps creates a void to be filled by songs that reinforce “normal” by recounting the abnormal.

Florian and Jonquil

We don’t get any text from the tale of Florian and Jonquil, but the distinctive thing about that tale is that while Florian is a knight, but he is also a fool, first. This contradiction, in being a contradiction, also reinforces the “normal” state of things: if it is special that Florian is a fool, then the default circumstances are for knights to be… well, simply knights. Here, it’s significant the ways in which Florian is less than the average knight: he is not of noble birth, he dresses in iron motley. This affects how he is perceived as a knight. He perhaps seems less threatening—but is that a bad thing, for his perceived reduced ability to protect? Or is that a good thing, for his perceived reduced capacity (or reduced desire) to harm Jonquil after saving her? Of course, his magic sword probably helps too—no matter whether that’s a magic sword or a magic sword (wink wink). Florian is a different kind of man: he is as chivalric as a knight, with all the associated honor, but perhaps without the same menacing air of presumed violence.

The Bear and the Maiden Fair

Similarly, The Bear and the Maiden Fair helps shape the narrative of “normal” by describing a situation which is anything butl:

Foremost, The Bear and the Maiden Fair stands out as a particularly unusual song by the standards of Westeros because the end of the song is told from the maiden’s point of view—and the female gaze in Westerosi stories is a rare thing indeed. In this son, the maiden explicitly explains what is normal what isn't: “I called for a knight, but you're a bear!” (ASOS Sansa I).

This song is built on—and in being retold, further reinforces—the idea of a maiden who must normally want a knight... and yet knights come with swords, and so come with risks as well as rewards. The Bear, like Florian, is not the usual kind of savior, but in the opposite way as Florian: the Bear has taken no knightly vows of chivalry, and is bound by no code of honor. In fact, the Bear appears is in every way more violent than we might expect a knight to be, not just for his lack of knightly code but also for his… animal tendencies.

Considering that, it’s paramount that here we’ve been given—for once—the insight into the Maiden’s perspective: by the end of the encounter, she comes to trust the Bear, despite her initial misgivings, and goes with him willingly. This factor alone makes the story of the Bear stand out against any stories we’ve heard about men with swords, and the sexual undertone of this song is no less an essential factor of this scenario than it is in Off to Gulltown. The Bear does not need to have a sword, metaphorical or otherwise. (This is why Brienne makes for such a good Bear to Jaime, too). The Bear is powerful enough to protect the Maiden… and, despite lacking a sword, is capable enough to please her, too. Rather than ending in penetration, this song ends in cunnilingus: 

She kicked and wailed, the maid so fair / But he licked the honey from her hair / Her hair! Her hair! /He licked the honey from her hair! / Then she sighed and squealed and kicked the air! / My bear! She sang. My bear so fair! / And off they went, from here to there

Which is both an assertion that the Bear can provide in every way that a knight could, sword or no, and is also a willing act of deference, rather than demand: the Bear wins over the Maiden by giving, rather than taking—a far cry from Off to Gulltown, where the man "steals" a kiss at knifepoint. But again, because the Bear is so expressly not a knight, and because the Maiden asked for a knight, this is not the “normal” expectation for a maiden.  

The Mother

Finally, in in another field entirely from these tales of knights and maidens, Sansa herself provides the song that encodes the expectation and desires of a Mother:

Gentle Mother, font of mercy, save our sons from war, we pray, stay the swords and stay the arrows, let them know a better day. Gentle Mother, strength of women, help our daughters through this fray, soothe the wrath and tame the fury, teach us all a kinder way.

This song in particular comes at a significant moment for Sansa, but even without that context this corroborates our expectations from the other songs about men—this song too is helping to build the total unified culture for Westeros to be learned and understood by those who live within it.  

Mothers have the “strength of women”—a strength that this song clearly delineates as separate from war, and rather of peace and the promise of something “better.” In the second verse, this is also the strength of mentorship, because this still will not change, nor does the song expect it to. Part of the Mother’s task is to teach her daughters how to exist amidst the “fray” of life.

While it is a noble and strong pursuit to “how to live a kinder way,” the fact that half the song is dedicated to relaying this skill to the next generation implicitly signals and admits that despite the Mother aiming for a “better day" and despite the Mother’s desire to “stay the swords,” the daughters are inevitably also going to have the same exact task when they themselves become Mothers. Like all of the other cultural touchstones I’ve discussed, this is a song which maintains the status quo; this is the eternal task of Mothers, and it will be the future for their daughters.

With that interpretation, there is also a subtle message about a woman’s ability to enact change in the world: they will "pray" for their sons to stop fighting but "help" their daughters to last through it anyway. The men, ultimately, are not beholden to the wishes of the mother—these are just prayers—and the daughters must be prepared to practice the same mercy as their mothers, because the men will never learn it from them.

Olenna Tyrell has lived long enough to know the truth of it:

All these kings would do a deal better if they would put down their swords and listen to their mothers. (ASOS Sansa I) 

But Catelyn understands the futility of this:

He wants me gone, Catelyn thought wearily. Kings are not supposed to have mothers, it would seem, and I tell him things he does not want to hear. (ACOK Catelyn I)

Kings are not supposed to have mothers... because the idea of Kingship has already been encoded and disseminated across the kingdom in the form of song and story. No king in song can have a mother, because it's tantamount to the institution of monarchy that the cultural perception of a King is omnipotent with no need to heed to anyone. Here, this cultural understanding of what a king is supposed to be supersedes the actual, lived reality of Catelyn and her son: despite being mother to Robb, it is impossible for either of them overcome the culturally enforced impossibility of being mother to a king.

Conclusions

It's not only Catelyn who struggles against the inability to cope with the fact that her lived experience is being altered by the perception of what is supposed to happen. Cultural expectations of "normal" work for some and not others. Those underrepresented in song are undescribed, and as a result, not understood. Sansa, who does identify with the songs and culture of Westeros, has no foundation for understanding Arya, who has always existed outside of those cultural expectations. 

This struggle to exist against the collective mythologies that constitute culture remains omnipresent throughout the books. It is a factor in everyone’s story, and though most songs give men agency where women have none, men are no more able to escape the limitations of song than women are.

Jon and Robb experiment with the future ramifications of their differing status through the legendary roles they adopt in play—Jon can’t be Lord of Winterfell, neither in make-believe nor in reality. Bran, now unable to walk, is therefore unable to meet his own expectations that he believed possible based on the stories he was told, and these stories of knighthood are such an integral driving force in his real life that he travels north of the Wall for the express purpose of regaining his legs so he can be a knight. Brienne lives the worst of both worlds—she does not believe she can be a traditional mother, but no more can she replace Galladan, her perfect brother made perfect by never truly existing except as his perfect namesake, the knight of song. These are not the only examples of characters struggling against the expectations that common culture has dictated for them, and several characters in ASOIAF parse their ability or inability to relate to these expectations through the lens of song. The list goes on—Victarion and his reaving songs; Euron and his pastiche of piracy; Sam, who sings to Gilly, fighting against his father's ideas; the impossible weight of the legendary predecessors to Jaime, Barristan, and Arys.

Sansa

The only thing setting Sansa apart from everyone else in this regard is the intensity of her belief in the actual truth of these songs and the degree to which these songs and stories guide her actions and expectations. In this way, though, Sansa is not unique in her belief in the power of songs, she is simply the story's quintessential explorer of this theme.

All of this analysis of song is just context for Sansa's world when she meets Sandor Clegane and Littlefinger in the early chapters of AGOT. For rest of her story, Sansa goes on to interpret King’s Landing—and her place in it—through her knowledge of songs, and these songs are so familiar to her that she “knows all of the words,” as Sandor says. From the very start, though, she knows what to say, how to act, and even more importantly: what to want. 

And yet Littlefinger tells her “life is not a song.” How could that possibly be, after all this? These songs may be a misinterpretation of life in some ways, but at the same time, life is made by songs.

[sophiemariepl]

Okay, I know that I’m most likely gonna sound like a boomer, but hear me out:

Today’s HotD fans are a perfect example to me of what is wrong with a large proportion of modern audiences and the way people consume pop culture and media in general.

Ever since the premiere of the Season 1, I am becoming convinced that going beyond black-and-white perspective is… well, beyond capabilities of a growing number of folks out there.

Like, to so many of them it is either Team Black or Team Green.

Either Rhaenyra or Alicent. Or either Rhaenyra or Aegon. Either Daemon or Aemond. Either the Targaryens & the Velaryons or the Hightowers. Et cetera.

And once someone leans more to one side of the story, they just seem to idealize their team and completely demonize the other. Once you love Rhaenyra, she becomes the perfect heir, progressive and feminist, and Alicent becomes a cruel, back-stabbing b*tch and servant of patriarchy. And vice versa, once you prefer Alicent, she is a 100% victim of her circumstances with no agency whatsoever and Rhaenyra becomes a spoiled b*tch who is unable to make anything good out of her opportunities.

And it’s just so beyond the point for me.

People, this is not some football match where you pick your team and wish all the worst to the other.

It’s a fictional historical fantasy chronicle about a downfall of one of the greatest houses in the history of this universe. Nobody here is perfect to rule; in fact, every faction here is in one way or another bad and makes decisions that are just incompetent.

The whole point of George R.R. Martin writing about the Dance of Dragons story is to ask the question:

What happens when among all the heirs to choose from, none of them is good?

And let’s finally stick to that.

[g0lightly]

Sansa's (possible) attraction to Mya Stone mirrors Jaime's attraction to Brienne

As part of my Briensa brainrot posting, I want to establish one of many parallels between Sansa and Jaime that may be relevant later. I think the text may be setting up Sansa’s attraction to women, specifically gender-nonconforming women like Mya. The way Sansa describes women’s appearances versus men’s appearances is more similar to straight male POV characters than to other female POV characters, as this post does a fantastic job of demonstrating. Specifically, I’d like to point out that the way Sansa thinks about Mya in her men’s clothing mirrors the way we initially see Jaime think about Brienne in hers. 

[Mya] could be pretty, if she would dress up like a girl. Alayne found herself wondering whether Ser Lothor liked her best in her iron and leather, or dreamed of her gowned in lace and silk. - Alayne II, AFFC

As the above post also points out, Sansa has to contextualize her potential attraction to a woman — an unconventional woman at that — through the eyes of a man as it’s not ladylike to have such thoughts about other ladies. Later in this chapter she repeats this question to Myranda Royce, excited to have an older girl to ask such a question.

“Do you think Ser Lothor likes [Mya] as she is, in mail and leather?” She asked the older girl, who seemed so worldly-wise. “Or does he dream of her draped in silks and velvets?” “He’s a man. He dreams of her naked.” She is trying to make me blush again. - Alayne II, AFFC

Sansa is so curious about this that I have to wonder if Ser Lothar is indeed the one with a crush. Mirroring Jaime, she goes from imagining her unconventional crush in her men’s clothing to imagining her in the kind of clothing she understands to be beautiful. And then she’s prompted to picture her naked.

He amused himself by picturing her in one of Cersei’s silken gowns in place of her studded leather jerkin. As well dress a cow in silk as this one.  - Jaime I, ASOS

Afterward, Jaime jokingly (or not so jokingly) asks Brienne to remove her clothes to prove that she is a woman. This is a much more cruel and direct sequence of thoughts/interactions than what we see with Sansa and Mya, though that’s fitting of Jaime and Sansa’s characters at these very different places in their respective arcs. Nevertheless, both are characters used to being valued for their conventional beauty (and their ability to conform to gender roles) attempting to understand their own interest in unconventional beauty that does not conform to gender roles. 

[sad-endings-suck]

I feel like people fundamentally misunderstand many of Catelyn and her “stupid choices”. Cat often does the right thing, but as a woman in Westerosi society, she simply does not have the power needed to back up those actions in a way that matters. Therefore, her plans don’t work.

If Catelyn had men of her own and the benefit of the doubt as a Lord when she apprehended Tyrion, she would have likely been able to question him before running off to Vale and as such Tyrion wouldn’t have been at the mercy of Lysa’s whims. Even if he was, as a Lord instead of a Lady, he would have been seen as Cat’s prisoner, not Lysa’s.

Her decision to release Jaime and trade him for Sansa and Arya would have worked if as a man and Lord she could override Robb’s word, and have men of her own escort Jaime south.

Catelyn was of course right not to allow Theon to go back home and parley (he is a hostage during war time) and again, if she were a Lord and not a Lady she could overrule Robb’s choice to let him go.

She likely would not have allowed Edmure to run off to battle, and as such Tywin likely would have fallen into Robb’s trap.

She wouldn’t have allowed Robb to forsake his vow to marry a Frey, just to marry Jeyne Westerling instead. Thus avoiding the Red Wedding.

If Catelyn were a Lord, and consequently had more power and control, a lot of her “bad decisions” wouldn’t end up being bad decisions at all, but “cautious strategic thinking”.

[graveyardcuddles]

I'm sure this has probably already been pointed out, but it's interesting to think about the historically significant Targaryens who had the same name or a similar name to Daenerys.

Daenys the Dreamer - Saved all of House Targaryen from the Doom with her prophetic vision. A woman whose dreams came true. Could be argued is the very foundation of House Targaryen even more so than Aegon I because Aegon could have never conquered the Seven Kingdom if his ancestors were wiped out by the Doom.

Princess Daenerys Targaryen I - Firstborn daughter of Queen Alysanne and King Jaehaerys. Early walker, talker, and reader. A lively, laughing child, often mud-spattered and grass-stained. She died young, but Alysanne fought for her to become Jaehaerys' heir over her younger brother Aemon and to rule as Queen in her own right.

Princess Daenerys Targaryen II - Daughter of King Aegon the Unworthy and Queen Naerys. The Daenerys that our Dany is named after. Born 19 years after her older brother. Mother was trapped in an abusive, unloving marriage. Said to have loved Daemon Blackfyre but set aside her personal desires for duty to marry Maron Martell to further solidify peace with Dorne. Began the tradition of opening the Water Gardens to the common children of the palace. And was remembered mainly for her compassion.

You can say that this naming convention is just a little easter egg that was included by George simply to create literary parallels to our Dany and that's probably true. But it feels like George is subtly hinting that Dany has been this figure whose birth has been heralded for centuries.

You can see little echos of her story in other Danys throughout history. And now, in THIS incarnation as Daenerys Stormborn, she is all those Danys and more. She is the wide-eyed, clever, grass-stained young girl learning to become a Queen in the Dorthraki Sea. She is the Dany who was born from an abusive loveless marriage but still became a compassionate leader even though it meant making personal sacrifices (including entering a politically advantage marriage) of her own. A woman whose dreams come true and who rules in her own right. Daenys the Dreamer and Aegon I.

[aelyxmagnus]

I was thinking about Egg’s reforms and they almost certainly had something to do with giving peasants the right to take legal action against their lords, especially the laws of pit and gallows, both the hedge knight and the sworn sword have scenes where peasants have arbitrary punishments tandem against them by someone higher up the social ladder than them, with Tansel and Aerion in book 1 being the most obvious example.

There’s also the sworn sword literally opening with a lower class person (the septon) being executed for talking shit about those with ‘god given rights’ (the king and bloodraven), there’s also the webber man who loses an ear to Ser Bennis who thinks he can do it with impunity as he’s a knight, Ser Bennis also abuses Egg and pinches him repeatedly and thinks Egg can’t do shit about it because he’s just a squire who’s below him in the hierarchy. There’s no way none of his reforms did nothing about it, and this also explains why the lords hated it so much, as a lord having rights of gallows is a right guarded jealously by lords, as we see in the sworn sword with Ser Eustace iirc. Taking this right from a lord would be extremely offensive to the prideful ones. This problem of arbitrary punishment is even stronger in westeros than in the medieval period I think because the church isn’t as strong. Egg probably continued to see this problem in his adulthood as he saw the ‘measures’ taken by Aerion in BR3, probably war crimes against smallfolk, that made him even more certain of the need for reform. It’s possible that he persuaded Maekar to do something which led to the Peake uprising and Maekar’s death, and his association with that might have been the reason why Bloodraven thought a great council would be necessary as otherwise the lords might revolt, or maybe our boy Childpastemaker just wanted to kill some more Blackfyres. This might also be why Egg chose Summerhall, a relatively new Targaryen construction, only about a 50 years old or something, post-Dance, instead of Dragonstone. He knew the risks and didn’t want more smallfolk to die cuz they were at the wrong place at the wrong time, like the poor stableboy Gregor killed in his combat with Oberyn.

[mryoyo000]

WHY SELYSE FLORENT SHOULD BE QUEEN OF WESTEROS WITH TEXTUAL PROOF

It is once again time to recline and ponder the many gifts of Queen Selyse Florent. Over the course of five books, what other character has had such an illustrious career so full of achievement or lived a life so dazzling and rewarding? As the fiscal year draws to a close we can see that so much of Westeros owes thanks to Selyse and House Florent for keeping it real and being classy and lots of other stuff. You may think the Tyrells are smart and competent but that’s just fraudulent fraud from Highgarden.

I want to post of a few key passages that best demonstrate why Selyse Florent, mother of foxes, is so well-suited to the title of Queen.

1.

”Yes,” Lady Selyse agreed. “Patches’s helm. It suits you well, old man. Put it on again, I command you.” And I will serve you to the last, my sweet queen, Cressen thought, for suddenly he saw the way. “Thank you, Your Grace,” he intoned, bowing low. “I never realized until now how much I needed your discerning and fashionable eye. This helm enhances my style very much and I never would have had the confidence to express myself without you.”

2.

”Joffrey shall die,” Queen Selyse declared, serene in her confidence. Davis saw that her confidence was well-earned, with her regal poise and her flawless hair. He suddenly felt ashamed for being such a hater and decided that from now on, he would obey her without question.

3.

Queen Selyse pursed her lips. “Lord Snow, as Lady Val is a stranger to our ways, please send her to me, that I might instruct her in the duties of a noble lady toward her lord husband.” That will go splendidly, I know. Jon knew that Val looked up to Queen Selyse and was always hoping to have her be a mentor figure. “As you wish,” he said, “though if I might speak freely—” “No, I think not. Now you may sashay away.” Jon Snow bent his knee, bowed his head, withdrew. He knew that Selyse shouldn’t be disturbed because she was about to go give away free cars to a bunch of her fans.

[ramblings-of-a-mad-cat]

Looks like Nettles is getting cut...

#fuckthemwritersistg

Spoilers and speculation for House of The Dragon season two, and beyond, lies ahead.

Oh I expected this. This is what they do. The World of Ice and Fire is complicated with tons of characters and story lines, so the show writers will always simply whenever they can, and even if they really shouldn't. Who remembers Jeyne Poole? Y'know, the girl who was actually married to Ramsay? If they hadn't already announced Addam's casting, I would predict that Laenor was going back to be one of The Dragonseeds and reclaim Seasmoke. That they would mere the two characters together. Because that seems to be what they do.

At the end of the day, we just have to take the show as a separate canon from the books. A lot is different. The show also tends to take various characters and rewrite them into better people. Game of Thrones did this with Sandor, Jorah, and Tyrion. House of The Dragon has done it with Rhaenyra, Alicent, and Aemond. The show already established that Rhaena is the girl who no one expects to get a dragon, and she obviously has a paternal connection to Daemon, so the writers said "close enough!" and substituted her in for Nettles. (That is, assuming this rumor is true, it may not be.)

But yeah, it's not the same, and Nettles was an important character in the story. Her absence would genuinely make the World of Ice and Fire smaller. Because she broke the rules. She was able to claim a dragon despite no apparent Valyrian ancestry. That's huge, and it's something Rhaena obviously can't replicate. Additionally, the bond between Daemon and Nettles worked because it was ambiguous. Was it paternal, or romantic? We can't be sure. But with Rhaena, that's gone too. We know for a fact that Daemon's her father, and Rhaenyra knows it as well. So her getting jealous is just going to make her look like she's out of her mind.

The mystery surrounding Nettles and the implications for dragon claiming as a whole were what made her character interesting. She wasn't a Princess of the Targaryen line. She was a common girl. And, not for nothing, but she was conventionally unattractive, too. It's unfortunate to lose that. Also, what does this mean for Morning? And Rhaena's story post-Dance? How are these two characters meant to be merged in the long term? If Rhaena can claim a dragon as fierce as Sheepstealer, that means maybe she could have claimed Vhagar, given the opportunity, when I think we were previously meant to assume that Vhagar wouldn't have chosen her anyway. Not sure what to make of that.

I'm sure it will be compelling when depicted onscreen and that Rhaena's ugly duckling story line will be fulfilling to watch, (the same way Sansa's arc was well crafted in the show) but still. This is a strange choice.

[rynnthefangirl]

I think that part of Jace never getting to rule is very important because as the entire saga shows, ruling is a complete beast only comparable to a hydra from which very few emerge complete.

Rhaenyra and Daemon's children are Disney princes, I don't accept discussions because that's what the book shows. Strong, kind and quite competent as well as fierce and loyal. That applies to the VB, the dragon twins and V&AThey loved each other, adored each other and would have given everything for each other without thinking twice, and they all seem at least intelligent, if not cunning.

((if you ask me that generation was too powerful and that's why they had to die, J&A to the tenth power)

But we see that when it comes to governing, everyone makes mistakes, makes mistakes, and faces difficulties. No matter how well you're trying to make yourself believe it, the gods are going to screw you over somehow with politics and knives in the dark.

The closest we have to Daemyra children are the Stark children. Specifically I want to focus on Robb and Jon, because they are both sons of Ned (let's not get technical) and were taught by him in equality, As ruler of the North Ned apparently had no problems and is loved by all to the point that his children benefit from the social capital Ned left them. But when Robb and Jon take the lead, it's interesting to see the traits of their father that they adopted, I'm thinking of one in particular: how they treat the people around them

CCat says that Robb rode out every day with one of his men and rotated them because that was Ned's MO to make his people feel heard and to be able to know the problems and what was going on. That's one of the things that made Ned loved by the people, but the way Robb did it and tried to live with honor leads him to make mistakes like forgetting that Theon is a hostage, not a friend. Robb got too personal and led with his heart.

Jon on the other hand remembers that a lord is no friend of his people, that there is such a division and he must maintain it in order to fulfill his duty. Consequently when we reach his era as Lord Commander Jon is placing people he knows are loyal and fair in positions of power... But he isn't talking to them, he has completely isolated himself from his friends and colleagues or has been alienating them and as a result he is left without people to watch his back and even his friends have started to consider him an idiot.

This is the same advice! The difference is that Ned had years to find his balance between the two approaches and even then we see him struggle with it.One of the first things he thinks is that he can't be despotic with the small council because everyone is equal there, but there is also a part of power that Ned didn't use because of that approach. In addition to the mistakes that are inherited, Robb does not know of the hatred that some lords have (cough Lady Dustin cough) and Jon has to deal with years of decay and hatred in the Night's Watch, (both like their father are also sadly ignorant of ambition and how far people will go for it)

Jace in times of crisis was doing pretty well, he didn't die for anything he did or didn't do, but that doesn't guarantee that his government was perfect, that there weren't obstacles of some kind at the time of promotion or later. We saw Jace display leadership skills, but we never saw him have to confront his fiscal policies.

Ah, sorry for taking so long to reply to this. Awesome analysis of the Starks though, thanks for that! I’m still pretty early in my first ever read through of the main books so I don’t really have anything to add about Robb and Jon, but I’m definitely looking forward to getting to Jon’s Lord Commander era and seeing him deal with the trials of leadership.

As for my area of expertise though (Targaryen history), I think another good example of a promising leader struggling with the curveballs of kingship is Aegon V. Aegon V pretty much had the best intentions of anyone who ever sat the Iron Throne (improving the rights of the smallfolk), and had a pretty solid plan to accomplish it through marriage alliances with his 5 children. But despite his good intentions and politically wise plan, everything still goes to shit. 4/5 kids break their marriage proposals, and he’s left with more enemies than friends, eventually leading to his doomed attempt to hatch dragons. Like Jace and Robb, Egg was as promising a king as you could hope for, and yet the main legacy of his reign was the tragic killing of most of his family (and I believe most of his reforms were gotten rid of in the years after his death).

This is also my basis for one of my gripes at S8 of GOT. Bran being King of Westeros and Sansa being Queen of the North are framed as these happy endings with the “right” people at last ruling, but neither of them have ever actually ruled anything before. And exactly like you said, ruling is it’s own beast, it tries you in ways you would never expect. So those two are propped up as more fit to rule than other characters in the show who have ruled imperfectly (Jon, Dany before she goes crazy, etc), but realistically they ALSO will be imperfect. They certainly have traits that I could see causing them issues in their reigns, and there are many conflicts I could see arising in Westeros after the show ends (ex. Iron Islands and Dorne declaring independence, anger from the Reach lords at a random Sellsword being made Lord of Highgarden). But by ending the show right before their reigns, our final monarchs Bran and Sansa get to be exempt from the trials and tribulations that have tested every other ruler in the show before them. If they are king and queen at the end of the books, maybe it’ll play out differently— but in the show I just found it frustrating that the “best” rulers are the ones who never actually ruled.

[witheredoffherwitch]

The vitriol spewed at Alicent reveals the warped view of modern feminism in these online circles. People criticize her for reinforcing traditional gender roles, while they praise Rhaenyra as this "feminist revolutionary" who defied the status quo.

Some online communities that claim to espouse progressive values seem almost oblivious to the fact that any freedom or independence received by female characters is rooted in a fragile foundation. These shallow analyses perpetuate ignorance, completely disregarding the social structures and complex power dynamics employed within these fictional universes.

When King Viserys passed away, Rhaenyra's supposed 'independence' vanished with his death - a reminder of the fragility of a woman's power within the rigidly patriarchal society. Although her father had bucked tradition by making her heir, she still functioned within the confines of the same feudal system, refusing to grant inheritance rights to Rosby women and Lady Stokeworth. Her authority was never truly absolute; it could be overturned at any moment by those more entrenched in power. In this way, Rhaenyra's 'agency' was, ironically, dependent upon the king.

Alicent and Rhaenyra were both prisoners of an archaic system, their freedom bound by the shackles of patriarchy. But while Alicent had power as long as she followed the status quo, Rhaenyra felt the full brunt of her restriction once her father - the king - passed away!!

[jozor-johai]

Days, Moons, Snow, and Letters: Proposing an new timeline for the ADWD North

The timeline you think you know around Jon's death is wrong, and this post is to show you why. Every discussion about who really wrote the Pink Letter is missing a crucial detail: Jon dies a month before Tycho Nestoris even reaches the Crofter's Village.

Yes, I am aware this sounds like an unbelievable claim. I would love for someone to convincingly prove me wrong, and if you believe you can, please let me know. However, I am reaching this conclusion using only the facts, which I will break down for you here.

Based on Asha's careful count of the days in The King's Prize and The Sacrifice, Jon's account of the moons from Jon VII onward, and Asha's, Theon's, and Jon's account of the snowstorm around Winterfell, I believe I can convincingly argue that by the time Tycho Nestoris arrives at Stannis' camp at the end of The Sacrifice—before any battle has taken place at all—Jon has already been dead for a month.

Very long (and dry) explanation below the cut. Please enjoy.

At the end, there's a Timeline breakdown illustrating the rough outline by the day, so don't worry if my tally of the weeks starts to get confusing, there is a clarifying list at the end.

The intuitive version—where George is giving us helpful hints

Jon VII, The Prince of Winterfell, and The King’s Prize. 

In The King’s Prize, Stannis’ host sets out from Deepwood Motte. Because this is important for timing everything else, let's call this Day 0.

In Jon VII, during a new moon, Jon receives a letter informing him of this plan ("we march against him")—I believe we can sync these events as occurring roughly contemporary to one another, with Jon VII happening a few days later. For ease later on, let's say Jon VII happens ~0.5 weeks after Asha departs Deepwood; this is ~Day 3.

Very shortly after that is Prince of Winterfell and Jeyne’s marriage: during this chapter, Roose receives word that Stannis has left Deepwood Motte. Allowing for just a bit more wiggle room (for Arnolf Karstark to have received a similar update as Jon did, and then to forward that information to ahead to Roose) we can place Prince of Winterfell fairly soon after Jon VII, itself after The King’s Prize begins. Let's call this ~Day 6.

Theon in Winterfell

Thanks to Asha keeping track of the days to the number, we know that Stannis' host spends at least 34 days on the march (Asha notes that "On the thirty-second day" grain ran out, at least two more days pass—the day "Lord Peasebury turned against the northmen" and "The next day the king's scouts chanced upon an abandoned crofters' village") and then Stannis' camp spends an additional 19 days at the Crofter's Village before Tycho and Theon arrive ("they had been three days from winterfell for nineteen days"). Therefore, we can almost exactly place Theon's arrival at the Crofter's Village no sooner than 53 days from the time they left Deepwood Motte. (It's possible, but not necessary, to insert more days between 32 and the Peasebury day, and we're trying to keep this march as short as possible.)

Therefore, the entirety of Theon’s Winterfell arc occurs during this time, since Prince of Winterfell starts right after the announcement that Stannis has begun to march, and because accounting for a ~3 days' ride between WF and the Village, Theon I occurs ~3 days before The Sacrifice. We can actually reasonably sync these chapters, but for the most part we don’t really have to—Ghost of Winterfell begins four days prior to Theon I, so that only needs to align with Tycho's arrival, and the Turncloak can just happen somewhere in between. But:

The one interesting thing to note is the snow in The Turncloak, when snow begins to fall heavily ("by nightfall snow was coming down so heavily"), and the snowstorm begins. However, it is also in this chapter that two scouts return to inform Roose that Stannis’ host has begun to break apart in the snow and had "slowed to a crawl". Comparing that to Asha's updates, this is at the earliest ~1 week into the march by Asha’s count, or anytime afterward ("fourth day of the march... snow began to fall" + "third day of snow, the king's host had begun to come apart"). So, by the time it starts snowing at Winterfell, or Asha, it's already been snowing a few days, at minimum. Accounting for additional travel time back to Winterfell from wherever Stannis is, and considering that this report comes just as Winterfell is getting snow, that means Stannis’ host got the snow roughly over a week before the snow reached Winterfell.

Almost like the snowstorm is following Stannis there. ;)  

Asha's Days

As for Asha and Jon’s storyline—where it actually matters here—it appears remarkably easy to compare time:

I believe Asha counting the days must be an exercise with narrative importance, and it's incredibly useful. As I said above, we can pin nearly to the day how much time elapsed from the beginning of Stannis’ march from Deepwood Motte until their arrival at the Crofter’s Village (no less than 34 days, cited above) and then add another 19 days at the Crofter’s Village in advance of Tycho’s arrival.

Together, the time from the beginning of The King’s Prize to the end of The Sacrifice is, at minimum, 53 days. Let's say Theon and Asha reunite on Day 53.

TWOW Theon appears to occur just before dawn the next day, and since The Battle at the Crofter’s Village appears to begin immediately after TWOW Theon ends, we’ll say that the Battle, therefore, is Day 54, or 7 weeks and 5 days following Stannis' departure from Deepwood Motte.

Jon's Moons

Meanwhile, every subsequent Jon chapter gives us either a moon phase or an account of days past:

Jon VII occurs during a new moon ("They had no moon to guide them home, and only now and then a patch of stars.") The weather is notably clear, clear enough that it's a plot element: this is the reason for heading to the weirwood grove now. When Jon returns he get the news of Stannis’ departure from Deepwood. We've allowed for some raven time, so we're calling this ~Day 3.

(As an aside, it’s been storming the last seven days, so the latest Mance could have left is a week prior, though obviously since we’re syncing this with Prince of Winterfell, Mance likely left earlier than that.)

Jon VIII occurs just before the half moon, about a week later. A moon "but half-full," to quote the text exactly. This is when Val departs to find Tormund. I interpret "but" to mean just before half-full, so we'll say this is 6 days later: ~Day 9.

Val says she will return on the "first night of the full moon." No one ever says she’s late, and Jon never worries about her being gone too long, so we can assume this is true—Val returns on the first night of the full moon, with Tormund, in Jon X. We can even be generous and say this is ~9 days later, and say Jon X occurs ~Day 18.

Since Val leaves in Jon VIII and returns a week later in Jon X, then Jon IX has just over a week’s period to occur. If we’re being generous, we can say this occurred only a few days after Jon VIII, around the actual half moon. Let's say Jon IX happens ~Day 11.

In Jon IX, Selyse arrives and declares she intends to stay “no more than a few days,” and while this prediction is not a trustworthy source, it might give us some kind of ballpark. Jon also notes the weather is clear in the morning for once, calling it a “respite.” He thinks the snows have "moved off to the south" (to Stannis?) but by the evening, the snow is "coming down more heavily". The next day, Tycho appears to be gone, and Alys arrives. 

So: Tycho appears to leave just over 1 week after Jon VII, when Jon received word that Stannis planned to march on Winterfell. This way, it makes intuitive sense that Jon sent Tycho to Deepwood Motte—barely any time has passed. It seems entirely possible that Stannis had yet to leave, or at least that Tycho could catch up with him on the march. So far, this feels entirely believable and logical.

In Jon X, Alys weds. Flint and Norrey have "hied" (hurried) to Castle Black for the Wedding, which is possible if we've said that Jon IX was ~1 week ago. The snow is still falling "heavily". Jon receives a letter confirming that eleven ships have left Eastwatch for Hardhome (likely a few days prior). Val arrives that night—our full moon, we presume. Again, this is Day ~18.

Jon XI begins the next morning. ("that day" until "finally, as the shadows of the afternoon grew long"). There is no place to fit any time in between here and Jon IX, because this chapter includes Jon showing Val her new quarters ("I've had the top floor made ready for you"). This is ~Day 19.

Also in Jon XI, Jon notes that the snow has finally stopped after two weeks ("a fortnight"). The last time we know the weather was clear for more than a few hours (so clear it was a plot point!) was Jon VII, when Jon went to the weirwood grove. By our count of the moon, Jon VII was two weeks ago, so this lines up exactly.

Tycho

So: we've said Tycho leaves in Jon IX, which is just over a week since Jon VII. If, at an estimate, we're saying Jon VII probably occurred about a half a week after Stannis actually left, Tycho departed Castle Black 1.5 weeks into Stannis' march. Again—he could catch up here, so makes sense that Jon sends Tycho to Deepwood Motte first.

Meanwhile, thanks to Asha, we know Tycho makes it to Stannis’ camp 7.5 weeks after their departure, on Day 53. If we are roughly syncing the start of The King’s Prize half a week before Jon VII, and seeing Tycho set out from Castle Black only a week later, then Tycho takes ~6 weeks to reach Stannis, and he’s not a teleporting banker at all. ~42 days is plenty of time to reach Deepwood Motte, negotiate the exchange of hostages, travel to Winterfell in the storm, grab Theon, and then make it back to Stannis’ camp. Again, this makes sense.

Jon X—Jon XIII

However, we now run into the problem of how much time has passed since Tycho left.

We said before that Jon X and Jon XI (the next day) occur ~1 week after Tycho departs. Jon XI is ~Day 19.

After that, Jon XII occurs exactly three days following Jon XI—there’s no space to add any extra time here. In Jon XI, Tormund and Jon agree to let the Wildlings through in three days' time, and Jon XII follows that event proceeding as scheduled. We can safely place Jon XII ~1.5 weeks following Tycho’s departure. Jon XII is ~Day 22.

Jon XIII is the only remaining Jon chapter without a moon phase or a clear date. However, there are a number of events that demand it be soon after Jon XII.

First, there's Tormund's return. Back in Jon XII, Jon says Tormund will take men to Oakenshield in “within a day or two.” In Jon XIII, Toregg returns in the morning to announce that Tormund has settled his people at Oakenshield and is returning in the afternoon. Tormund arrives that afternoon.

Then, there's the matter of Hardhome. In Jon XII, he recieves news of the disaster at Hardhome ("Very bad here. Wildlings eating their own dead"). Jon XIII begins with Jon and Selyse discussing Hardhome, seemingly for the first time; Jon later discusses a Hardhome ranging with Marsh and Yarwyck, also for the first time; Melisandre also tries to stop Jon from leaving for Hardhome, also for the first time. Jon XIII occurs as soon as Jon makes the plan to leave for Hardhome. He sounds hurried; he says "they are starving at Hardhome by the thousands," and he makes a plan with Leathers to arrange the meeting in the Shieldhall in time for Tormund's return from Oakenshield—the only thing holding them up from leaving is Tormund's return.

Up to you how long you think Jon would have waited to discuss this—I don't think very long. In order to argue that more time passes between Jon XII and Jon XIII, we need to argue that Jon hears of the starving Wildlings eating their own dead and waits for weeks before acting.

Additionally, Cregan Karstark is taken out of the Ice Cells in Jon XIII after having been imprisoned there sometime before Jon X. Considering Jon X and Jon XII have to be four days apart, that's fine, and we might imagine that Cregan has been there for maybe over a week, or more. However, Jon spent four days in an ice cell in ASOS Jon X and in this time Alliser Thorne threatened that Jon would "die in there." With that comparison, we're limited in the timeline by imagining how much longer than ~1 week we can keep Cregan Karstark alive in the ice cells prior to his release in Jon XIII without him freezing to death first.

Soon after, the Bastard Letter arrives, and Jon is killed.

Personally, I think it’s most likely that Jon XIII occurs only a few days following Jon XII. If I’m feeling generous, I’d say we can put Jon XIII ~1 week following Jon XII, and being generous we’ll say that Jon dies ~2.5 weeks after Tycho departs Castle Black. That is, therefore, 3.5 weeks after Jon first heard word that Stannis was leaving Deepwood Motte, and (we're guessing) ~4 weeks after Stannis actually left.

So Jon dies on ~Day 30. By this count, Jon's dead, and Tycho Nestoris still won’t arrive at the Crofter’s Village for another ~3.5 weeks—he can't come any faster, Asha's been counting.

Next, I'm going to propose (and acknowledge) the ways that other versions of this timeline will fix this problem, though I don't like them exactly. Then, afterwards, I'm going to give a last piece of evidence why I believe in the version of events I've just described.

If you're unintersted in "what-ifs," scroll down to "The Snowstorm"

The Less Intuitive Version—where George sneaks in "The Mystery Month"

Because I'm arguing that Jon appears to die on ~Day 30, and Tycho doesn't even reach Asha until Day 53, in order for us to believe Jon XIII happened after TWOW Theon, we’d need to invent a month to add in to Jon’s storyline. Jon XIII has to occur after Day 60, at minimum.

I call this the “Mystery Month”—is there a missing month in Jon’s storyline, or isn’t there?

There a couple ways to make this happen, and I'll explain why I don't believe them.

The trouble with slow ravens

Number one, across the board, it feels very tempting to add buffer time by imagining that Stannis left Deepwood Motte even earlier than we estimate—maybe a whole week, or even longer, before Jon hears about it in Jon VII. The main issue with this strategy is that Stannis has to send the letter, so the raven leaves at latest when Stannis does, and so now we're arguing that a raven takes over a week to fly to reach Jon .... which means that now we're also adding additional estimated time for how long it took a raven to deliver the Pink Letter, and everything has to be pushed even earlier.

That is to say: if we said it takes two weeks for word to reach Jon before Jon VII, I would say now the "battle" in the Pink Letter has to happen weeks earlier to account for this extended raven time.

The long wait before Jon XIII

The first, simplest way to add a month, is that we say this: Jon XIII happens a month after Jon XII. It took Jon a month to plan for and to bring up Hardhome to Selyse, Selyse has waited over month to plan her weddings with Gerrick Kingsbloods’ daughters, and Tormund has been at Oakenshield for over a month. The Letter arrives a month after the Wildlings come through, and so long as the King’s Prize also began over a week before Jon gets the Letter about it in Jon VII, we can make this work. Tycho arrives on time, we skip ahead a month before Jon XIII, and then Jon dies after the battle.

Yes, this could be how it happens, No I do not think that it's convincingly possible that Jon XIII happens a month after Jon XII.

If we don't want to try to force in a lot of time between Jon XII and Jon XIII, there are a few other ways to attempt to solve this (though these are still three timelines of entirely my own invention):

Skipping a moon before Jon VIII

We could add a month in between Jon VII and Jon VIII, where Jon VIII is not the waxing half moon following Jon VII’s new moon, but the one after that. We're locked in at the moon cycle, so instead of one week, this has to be a ~5 week gap. The major issue with this is: we’ve lined up Jon VII roughly with the beginning of Stannis’ march, and Tycho still hasn’t arrived at Castle Black yet. If we place Jon IX right after Jon VIII again, we'll add a month to our previous estimate of Jon IX can say that Tycho leaves ~Day 39.

With this timeline, Tycho has ~2 weeks to catch up with Stannis’ host, reaching both Deepwood Motte and Winterfell along the way. This seems unbelievably fast (considering that Deepwood to Winterfell alone was over two weeks in good weather).

The thing is, that doesn’t even matter: since this doesn’t change our earlier estimate of how long Jon has left to live after Tycho’s departure (~2.5 weeks), that still means Jon dies roughly around the same time Tycho arrives.

There's an even bigger logical issue here: in this scenario, that means Jon, who heard five weeks ago that Stannis is marching on Winterfell—which is apparently a two-week march ("fifteen days")—still sent Tycho to Deepwood Motte to catch Stannis. Why would Tycho go to Deepwood first, and not Winterfell, if Jon learned Stannis marched five weeks before Tycho left? It's true that it happened to work out, but Jon wouldn't have known, at this point, how snowed in Stannis is.

The Val takes three weeks version

Alternatively, here everything is spread out more, which is closer in spirit to what the Unofficial Timeline suggests.

We can try to give both Val and Tycho a little more time before Val's return, but we’re always trapped in a moon cycle between Jon VIII and Jon X because otherwise Val’s promise to return at the full moon doesn’t make any sense. The best way to do this is to imagine that Val leaves on a waning half moon, rather than waxing half moon. This means that Val has three weeks to travel, and it also means we have move Jon VIII to three weeks after Jon VII (and therefore ~3 weeks into King’s Prize). Here, Jon VIII is ~Day 24.

(However, this is counterintuitive—it’s more natural to imagine that being shown a half moon following a new moon would mean the waxing half moon. Also, I believe it goes contrary to the actual description: Jon notes the moon was “but half full,” and the “but” makes it seem like it will be half-full soon, not that it just was. Again, we can allow it. This also means that when Val looks at the half-moon and says: look for me at the first week of the full moon, she doesn’t mean next week, she means in ~3 weeks from now—after the moon has gone to new and then back to full again. Once again, this feels very counterintuitive to say, but it will give us more time.)

In this version of events, Tycho and Alys can still arrive as early as right after Jon VIII, and therefore that Tycho left Castle Black ~3 weeks after Jon VII, roughly around ~Day 26. (Once again, this doesn’t make too much intuitive sense to me: why would Jon send Tycho to Deepwood Motte three weeks into a two-week march?) 

This doesn’t change our count of time from Jon X—Jon XIII (a generous ~1.5 weeks) but now we’re saying say that Tycho left Castle Black three weeks prior to Jon X, so this gives us 4.5 weeks between Tycho’s departure and Jon’s death.

This solves the issue of the teleporting banker: Tycho leaves ~3 weeks into Stannis’ march and has ~4.5 weeks to make the trip, so he’s faster than Stannis but not impossibly fast. However, because the moon phases are still locking our ability to only month here for the moon to align, we still have Tycho arriving roughly the same time Jon dies.

Mystery Month+

Since we're trapped into a vague schedule by Jon's noted moon cycles, the only remaining option is to assume that one of the above is true, and that Jon XIII happens at least two weeks after Jon XII. That would also make the timeline work.

However, to me, this all seems highly counterintuitive and unlikely…

And that’s before we factor in the accounts of the weather. 

Yes, I have one more piece of evidence to propose, and although this is a bit more debatable, I believe it corroborates my initial timeline.

The Snowstorm

Asha sets out from Deepwood Motte, and four days later, the snows begin. By a week into the march ("third day of snow"), the host has begun to separate, and slow to a crawl.

Around this time, or a little later, we imagine the Bolton scouts see the Stannis host struggling, and turn home to report back. Several days later, accounting for vague travel time (because Stannis is less than halfway to Winterfell by this point), they report this to Roose, and it begins to snow in Winterfell, too. Let's say, roughly, it begins snowing at Winterfell around ~2 weeks after Stannis departs, maybe adding a couple days. This is when The Turncloak happens—let's say ~Day 16.

Remember what I said about the snow in The Turncloak being interesting?

In Jon VII (at my estimate, ~Day 3) the weather is clear—clear enough that Jon heads north of the Wall. If we're aligning these moments, this seems to be true for Stannis, too.

The first we hear of snows to the south in Jon IX ("moved off to the south"), and in Jon X, we hear that south of Castle Black the "kingsroad was said to be impassable" from snowstorms. In Jon XIII, Yarwyck points out that the Wall is getting snow blown against it because the "wind's from the south". This is three different accounts of harsh weather to the south, and all of this points to this being the storm at Winterfell. 

If we go back to my original timeline, Stannis leaves Deepwood Motte a little before Jon VII, and Jon X occurs two weeks later around ~Day 18. In that timeline, then those reports of impassable snows to the south line up exactly with when the snows appear to have hit Winterfell, from our estimation of the sync between King’s Prize and Turncloak. Snows hit Winterfell roughly ~Day 16, Jon gets reports that the Kingsroad is impassable ~Day 18. That lines up.

According to my proposed timeline, this is still four or five weeks before Tycho Nestoris arrives. A week later, in Jon XIII, when the winds from the south are only getting worse… that fits, because Asha and Theon have another three or four weeks of snow to go. And Jon is dead.

The End

TL;DR: Comparing Jon’s tracking of the moon, Asha’s tracking of the days, and accounts of the snowstorm around Winterfell all lead me to believe that Jon dies four weeks before Tycho Nestoris reaches the Crofter’s Village.

In my proposed timeline: Tycho leaves ~1 week after Stannis does, he takes ~6 weeks to make it to the Crofter’s Village, and Jon’s already been dead for a month. So, there's been a month since. This way, Jon sending Tycho to Deepwood makes sense, and Tycho taking 6 weeks to make the journey makes sense. The accounts of the snowstorms line up.

What doesn't make sense is: the Pink Letter arrives over a month too early to be real.

Implications

But what could I possibly be saying? I don't even really know. This is such an unusual conclusion that there is very little theorizing in the fandom about what this would mean.

.... Although, I do have a pet theory for this: it does feed into my desire for the Wildlings to make a surprise appearance in TWOW.

Take this with a grain of salt. BUT. We know from AGOT that it usually takes ~3 weeks to travel from Castle Black to Winterfell. That means that a Wildling host would have a month, or even five weeks, depending on timing, to have marched from Castle Black to Winterfell afterward, and could arrive at Winterfell right on time for Stannis to advance. If that were the case, it could explain why Stannis seems so unhurried at the Crofter's Village. Maybe he's waiting for them to arrive. It could work that way. I'm not getting into any other logistics here, because this is a tall tale to defend.

On the other hand, as much work as this was, I’d love to be proven wrong here! It's all in the name of science, if by science I mean obsessive analysis of fiction. If someone has a detail I’ve missed, please let me know.

TIMELINE

Day 0: King's Prize: Stannis Marches. The King's Prize begins.

Day ~3: Jon VII: New moon, word from Stannis.

Day 4: King's Prize: Snow begins for Asha.

Day ~6: Prince of Winterfell. Word from Arnolf that Stannis marches on Winterfell.

Day 7: King's Prize: Stannis' host begins to break apart in the snow.

Day ~9: Jon VIII: ~Half moon, Val departs and will return in ~a week.

Day ~11. Tycho Nestoris arrives and Jon sends him to Deepwood Motte. Jon notes it seems there are snows off to the south.

Day 15: King's Prize: Stannis has moved less than half the distance.

Day ~16. The Turncloak. It begins to snow heavily in Winterfell.

Day ~18. Jon X. Val returns, new moon. It's snowing heavily in Castle Black. Word comes that the Kingsroad south of Castle Black is impassable from heavy snow.

Day ~19. Jon XI. Jon meets with Tormund, shows Val her new quarters. Wildlings cross in three days.

Day 20. King's Prize: Asha loses her ankle chains because her horse dies.

Day ~22. Jon XII. The wildlings cross. Clear in the morning but Tormund notes snow will start again overnight. Tormund plans to go to Oakenshield in a day or two. Word of the Hardhome disaster.

Day 26. King's Prize: Stannis' host runs out of vegetables.

*Day ~30. Jon XIII, by my estimate. Jon plans to leave for Hardhome. Strong winds blowing snow from the south. Tormund returns from Oakenshield. Bastard Letter, Jon dies.

Day 32. King's Prize: Stannis' host runs out of grain.

Day 34. King's Prize: Stannis' host reaches the Crofter's Village.

Day 45. The Karstarks arrive at the Crofter's Village. (The Sacrifice)

Day 47. The Ghost in Winterfell: Ryswell man-at-arms found dead. Snow makes visibility outside Winterfell near-zero.

Day 48. Ghost in Winterfell: Aenys Frey's squire found dead in the morning. Flint crossbowman found dead in the afternoon. Stable collapses at night.

Day 49: Ghost in Winterfell: Yellow Dick found dead in the morning. Visibility so low Theon cannot see "three feet in front of him." Confrontation about whether Theon is the killer.

Day 50: Ghost in Winterfell: Theon stays up all night; just before the dawn the sounds of horns and drums outside wakes everyone Winterfell. Theon is found in the godswood by three of the spearwives and taken to meet Mance in the Burned Tower. Theon I: A raven arrives (from the Karstarks) informing Roose of Stannis' location. Theon and Jeyne escape and are found my Mors.

Day 53: The Sacrifice: Tycho Nestoris arrives with Theon, Jeyne, and the Ironborn from Deepwood Motte.

*Day 60: At minumum, earliest time Jon XIII can occur for the Pink Letter to be accurate.

[onionmaester]

Davos Seaworth: A Lifetime of Smuggling

An aspect of Davos' backstory which I do not believe I have seen discussed much, likely because to my knowledge it appears to have only been brought up fairly briefly, is the age of which Davos first became involved in illegal smuggling and the potential implications of this own his character, backstory and general morality.

The first time he had seen the Wall he had been younger than Devan, serving aboard the Cobblecat under Roro Uhoris, a Tyroshi known up and down the narrow sea as the Blind Bastard, though he was neither blind nor baseborn. Roro had sailed past Skagos into the Shivering Sea, visiting a hundred little coves that had never seen a trading ship before. He brought steel; swords, axes, helms, good chainmail hauberks, to trade for furs, ivory, amber, and obsidian.

Here Davos is shown reflecting on his experiences while serving upon the Cobblecat, which was the first ship he served on, and notes he saw the wall during this time and was "younger than Devan" at this point.

“My son is not quite twelve. I am the King’s Hand. Give me another letter, if you would.”

In this same chapter, Davos remarks that Devan is "not quite twelve", therefore indicating that Davos was presumably no older than eleven himself (at the maximin) when he first joined the crew of the Cobblecat. We do not know much of Davos' childhood prior to this, but it is known that he grew up in Flea Bottom which is the poorest slum of King's Landing.

The HBO show does state he is a "Crabber's son" (for the record though I have only ever seen clips of the show) but this does not appear to be mentioned anywhere in the books. Instead we get this;

“That may be so,” Davos said, “but when I was a boy in Flea Bottom begging for a copper, sometimes the septons would feed me.”

So we know young Davos was a beggar, so likely not from a family with any stable employment or means to support themselves. When Davos' family is brought up, only his wife and sons are mentioned. He is never alluded to having living parents, siblings, cousins etc. Given his family-oriented nature, one might also expect he'd be at least a bit guilty if he had abandoned any family to join the Cobblecat's crew (although granted it has been decades). So while I do not think its outright stated that Davos is an orphan, it seems likely.

I feel the reason why this might be important to note, and why it might have some notable implications, is because it shows how and why Davos became involved in smuggling in the first place. One criticism I have seen of Davos' character a few times is that he does not necessarily feel like the type of man who'd break the law for profit for many years, as he is one of the most morally upright and honest characters in ASOIAF.

While I do think these criticisms have some merit, I also think that there is nothing about being a criminal which necessarily means Davos would prevent Davos from being a generally moral man. This is especially the case in Westeros, which is a highly stratified feudal society where the commons have little protection or upward morbility.

On this same note; there is also another thing worth mentioning when considering the time Davos become a smuggler... the tenure of Tywin Lannister as Hand of the King.

A Wiki of Ice and Fire calculates Davos' birthdate as being no later than 260, although notes that Davos was likely born a few years earlier. Tywin was Aerys' hand from 262–281 AC, and one of his famed actions is removing the pro-smallfolk reforms. I've seen this theorised as contributing to the eventual rise of the Kingswood Brotherhood and their initial popularity with the smallfolk.

So judging by what we know; Davos was born into extreme poverty in a society in which distinctions between classes are part of the law, and likely grew up during a time where the rights and conditions of commoners were being taken away and decreased.

I do not mean to claim Davos is free of fault; he has cheated on his life, he associates with morally ambiguous folk such as Salladhor Saan (A pirate who has no scruples with pillaging innocent civilians) or Stannis Baratheon (a very fascinating character as well).

But I do think this history and context could be worth noting to inform how Davos grew up, and how he is the man that he is. He got into smuggling when he was young enough to possibly not fully grasp the implication of this, and likely continued all those years because smuggling was his main skill-set to support himself, and later his family.

Transitioning to being a legitimate merchant would likely carry a number of obstacles; having to explain where he gained his wealth and cargo he'd have to sell at first, paying tariffs, making himself more well-known to authorities which could risk his old crimes being uncovered and making it easier to arrest him for them. I do not think it is a contradiction between Davos generally being good-natured, but also continuing to do the (dishonest) job he is best at. Especially when his commitment to his family is such a major part of his character that it also likely was why he continued the job of a smuggler to support them.

[professoruber]

Ser Glendon and Ser Kyle on the Identity of Dunk and Egg

Spoilers for Duncan & Egg: The Mystery Knight...

So having recently gotten done reading through Dunk & Egg (a very wonderful if sadly short spin-off to the ASOIAF Novels) I had a quick thought regarding the ending...

So.

Glendon Balls/Flowers and Kyle the Cat have got to realise there's more to Ser Duncan the Tall (and by extension, Egg) than it seems, right? Sorry if I'm getting any details mixed up, I'm kinda tired today and also only recently finished reading through it all...

So Dunk shows up during the meals and start up outs John the Fiddler as Daemon the Second, aka a Blackfyre pretender and all that, and then proceeds to defend Glendon; not only proclaiming his innocence and accusing others of preforming a frame-up, but also accuses the tourney as a whole of being rigged in Daemon's favour.

So Daemon agrees to do some trial by combat, and Glendon wins, and then Bloodraven shows up to crash the party and arrest everyone. This is probably where they should really start getting curious about Dunk's connection.

It was only a few heartbeats later, as Dunk and Ser Kyle were helping Glendon Ball off his horse, that the first trumpet blew, and the sentries on the walls raised the alarm. An army had appeared outside the castle, rising from the morning mists. “Egg wasn’t lying after all,” Dunk told Ser Kyle, astonished.

Here we see Dunk inferring to Kyle that Egg was aware of the coming army and had informed him of it as well.

It was late that afternoon before Ser Roland Crakehall of the Kingsguard found Dunk among the other prisoners. “Ser Duncan. Where in seven hells have you been hiding? Lord Rivers has been asking for you for hours. Come with me, if you please.”

As Dunk, Glendon and Kyle all await trial, suddenly a knight of the Kingsguard shows up and greets Ser Duncan by name and then proceeds to reveal Bloodraven has been looking for Duncan specifically.

“Aye, m’lord. Ser Kyle the Cat, and Maynard Plumm. And Ser Glendon Ball. It was him unhorsed the Fidd … the pretender.”

��Yes, I’ve heard that tale from half a hundred lips already. The Bastard of the Pussywillows. Born of a whore and a traitor.”

“Born of heroes,” Egg insisted. “If he’s amongst the captives, I want him found and released. And rewarded.”

And then of course we have the meeting with Dunk and Egg with Bloodraven in which Egg names Kyle and Glendon (and also Maynard Plumm, who from what I understand was likely Bloodraven himself) and specifically asks for the latter to be freed and rewarded. I'd assume Kyle also would at least get the courtesy of a shift release due to being named here by Dunk.

So from the perspective of Glendon and Kyle; Dunk knew of the Blackfyre presence, was informed a Targaryen army was coming, is acquainted with a member of the Kingsguard, and was specifically sought out by Bloodraven himself. And then presumably shortly after Dunk was taken to speak with Bloodraven, both Kyle and Glendon were presumably freed, with the latter getting rewarded for knocking the latest Blackfyre pretender in the mud.

From an outside perspective, this all has to be quite suspicious right? They'd likely be wondering if Dunk was a Bloodraven spy all along or at the very least side-eye just what kinds of connections he has (or rather, Egg has). If they manage to hear about the Ashford Tourney and Dunk's role in it, then that only would add to the confusion.

Just thought all this could be a source of conflict or at least confusion. I do think its likely they'll have questions at least.

“Some never will,” Dunk told him. “It doesn’t matter what you do. Others, though … they’re not all the same. I’ve met some good ones.” He thought a moment. “When the tourney’s done, Egg and I mean to go north. Take service at Winterfell and fight for the Starks against the ironmen. You could come with us.”

---

You have as much chance of wearing a white cloak as I do, Dunk almost said. You were born of a camp follower, and I crawled out of the gutters of Flea Bottom. Kings do not heap honor on the likes of you and me. The lad would not have taken kindly to that truth, however. Instead he said, “Strength to your arm, then.”

Dunk does offer to Glendon to come with him and Egg to the North, and given how disillusioned he became with the Blackfyres as a result of the events of the Tourney, as well as gratitude to Dunk for saving him from torture, he may be more inclined to join them. Plus there's also foreshadowing of Glendon one day joining the Kingsguard of Aegon V, so him joining Dunk and Egg on their travels at least for a bit more would make sense in increasing the bond.

“I know that feeling well.” Ser Kyle sighed. “Lord Caswell did not know me. When I told him how I carved his first sword, he stared at me as if I’d lost my wits. He said there was no place at Bitterbridge for knights as feeble as I had shown myself to be.” The Cat gave a bitter laugh. “He took my arms and armor, though. My mount as well. What will I do?”

Kyle was also in a rather bad situation due to the tourney, and so might also be inclined to join the group heading North in hopes of finding more long-term service with the Starks.

So if both Glendon and Kyle are going to be travelling with Dunk and Egg, then that increases the liklihood of them noticing the pair (mostly Egg really but still) are more than they seem, and more time for them to ask questions the two will need to find someway to answer.

[sad-endings-suck]

Aegon’s Conquest Parallels: The Dragon Has Three Heads

Daenerys = Aegon the Conqueror

So it is already pretty clear that Daenerys is meant to mirror Aegon the Conqueror in many ways. She’s already conquered Slaver’s Bay and she’s on a path to “conquer” the Dothraki so to speak (becoming their leader) and Westeros as well. She is seen as a versatile leader that focuses on military leadership and political leadership relatively equally. She’s also a strong figurehead that is known far and wide accros much of the known world. The Mother of Dragons, the breaker of shackles, Khaleesi, Stormborn, Mhysa, the most beautiful woman in the world, etc. She’s very much framed as an iconic figure that’s easy for anyone to conceptualize as a great figure and remember.

Drogon = Balerion

It is also quite clear that Drogon is being set up as a parallel to Aegon’s dragon, Balerion the Black Dread. Drogon has been called “Balerion come again” as well as “the Winged Shadow” (we know that Balerion was described as being so large his shadow could engulf a town). Drogon and Balerion are also both black dragons as well, and dragons is the largest of Dany’s three dragons just how Balerion was the largest of Aegon’s three dragons.

Young Griff = Rhaenys

These next parallels are a bit more abstract, but I believe Young Griff mirrors Aegon’s wife/sister, Rhaenys. Young Griff is being set up as someone that could be loved by the people, and who is savvy in the manner of political image and intricacies (thanks to Varys). I think he will rely on political maneuvering to gain power.

I think he’s someone who could potentially appreciate art in a way Rhaenys did, and use that to his advantage to sculp his image the same way she did. Being influenced by people like Varys and Illyrio who are familiar with such things helps a lot. I think Young Griff will be the first to die of the “three heads” in a surprise attack during a battle, similar to Rheanys (though I don’t think he will be the favourite “wife”). Wether or not Young Griff is actually a Targaryen or a Blackfyre or the true third head of the dragon isn’t super important in terms of drawing comparisons between him and Rhaenys, it is more about what he represents.

Viserion = Meraxes

I think Viserion will die in a similar way that Rhaenys’ dragon Meraxes died (if the show is to be believed) taking a spear/scorpion bolt through the eye. And I believe Young Griff could be riding him when it happens, thus ending both their lives, the same way Rhaenys/Meraxes died. Meraxes was also the first of Aegon’s three dragons to die, long before Vhagar or Balerion.

Jon = Visenya

Now for the Jon/Visenya parallels (which are my favourite). Both Jon and Visenya are the type of people that do what needs to be done, even if it is far from the popular or likeable choice. Visenya is a brutal, practical and loyal individual that stays calm under pressure. And I believe this is already true of Jon, but will be especially so after he is resurrected and brought back colder and harsher. Visenya was always seen as a harsh leader, though she was respected and feared. The way Jon handled the situation with Janos Slynt is absolutely something I think Visenya would approve of, as Stannis did (there are also Visenya/Stannis parallels and Rhaenys/Renly parallels, but that is for a different post).

Visenya and Jon are both leaders, period. However, they are more specifically military oriented leaders. I also believe Jon will be quite loyal to Daenerys (Quaith never warned Dany about a “wolf” of any kind) similarly to how loyal Visenya was to Aegon. I don’t think it will be a blind loyalty situation the same way it was in the show, but I could see Jon challenging Dany the way Visenya would challenge Aegon (ultimately for the better). Such as how Visenya defied Aegon to create the Kingsguard, which was ultimately in his best interest. Visenya was also the last of the “three heads of the dragon” to die, which I believe Jon will be as well. There is also the likely possibility that Jon was meant to be named Visenya had he been a girl, due to Rhaegar’s other two children being named Aegon and Rheanys because of his obsession with a prophecy. I also enjoy that Jon is a black brother (of the Night’s Watch) and Visenya’s sword was called Dark Sister. Like they are both the “dark sibling” or “black sheep” so to speak.

Rhaegal = Vhagar

And of course there is Visenya’s dragon Vhagar, who is a green dragon just like Rhaegal. Of course, we are also 99% certain at this point that Jon is Rhaegar Targaryen’s son, and wouldn’t you know it: Vhagar, Rhaegar, Rhaegal. Not only are those names similar, but they all transition into each other seamlessly in a way that other seemingly connected names do not. There are absolutely conclusions to be drawn there, and I believe we are meant to notice.