Your twin theory stuff has been going on for quite some time, have you considered making a run down on it because it’s a bit hard to find all your points and information on it because of how long you’ve spent on it and I’m very curious but struggling to put it all together
(Alright, take two since I got stuck for a loooong while)
This is a basic explanation of the Ouma-Monokuma twin theory! I will do my best to condense the concepts down in a way that flows simply and is easily understandable, but it will be hard to cover everything while keeping to the most relevant information. So if this doesn't do the job, I might finish the much longer meta on ao3 at a later date, in which I will cover… everything I possibly can, no holds barred and without the blog links. Which will take considerably longer and need very careful execution. (Yeah, this is the short version…)
General disclaimer: this is a view informed by at least six years of trial and error, ruminating in canon for patterns and their meaning. Through all this, I recognise that it is still a theory, and it doesn't make others’ ideas less meaningful. All the same, I need you to understand that this theory and its analysis is fundamental to my view of Danganronpa as a whole, not just my feelings about Ouma. And in my opinion, the presence of bad writing in DRV3 does not negate that view, either. So if you believe that it does, I hope we can agree to differ on our reader responses instead, after all is said and done. Thank you.
Alright, with that out of the way, dropping this under a cut as it's lengthy. Though rather than a lot of detail on what this means for Ouma's character right now, I'm going to dig through the surface with the basis of reframing, roles, academy history, psychology, narrative style for the mastermind, and the broader consequences, with feelings from my perspective to wrap up. I hope that will help give a perspective of the theory world, so that any evidence I give should fit easier in the future.
⚠️ Reader discretion is advised- this content details abuse further on and will be marked like this! ⚠️
[‘Then this story's not over.’]
The way I see this situation is basically like a 3D sculpture with two different pictures- ‘the fiction’ and ‘the conspiracy’. That is to say- in the ‘fiction’, there are things that are effectively motifs or throwaway remarks (such as, Ouma's comment about having a brother in his FTE), but in the ‘conspiracy’, they become clues to a hidden interconnected situation. A puzzle in the meta, essentially.
To begin, I’ll outline components of this framing, as these are necessary to understand how this turnabout works.
Catbox world: the question hanging in the air, 'is HPA fiction, or is it real'? What would the consequences of the latter be for the game and outside world of DRV3? In order to begin answering this, I think this way:
Domino effect: 'when you learn a new fact, you learn something else along with it'. Ex: if HPA is real, a very large and clandestine organisation may also be real, since one was connected to HPA's library. With that possibility opened, there are… a lot more potential threads coming from it.
Unreliable narrator: is there something Shuichi is missing? In Ouma's lab, along with the complete history file there are monitors and a hatch, and in his dorm room there’s a whiteboard with pictures and notes scrawled on, the latter two Shuichi doesn't even notice. There are things he cannot verify too - such as Rantaro's odd memory of the forgotten Prologue - which is left up to us, the players.
Contextual reframe: with the new information, we can infer for example that record keepers of the past are made obsolete, and since the HPA history was in Ouma's lab, this could make him a viable record keeper. If TDR's agenda is with historical record, its identity may be the secret society involved in conspiracies. This can greatly affect some of Ouma's comments in hindsight- one relevant to this is his FTE remark about ‘tricking the entire world’.
With doubt already on the most basic aspect of the 'fiction' narrative (that is, ‘HPA is fiction’) we can apply this principle to the Flashback Lights and by extension, the idea that the cast must also be fiction, too.
Ex: Shuichi and Kiibo were made to see the Flashback Light panel in a way that was rigged up to be seen- it should not have been visible to multiple persons, so it's likely to have been tampered. We know Shuichi to be helpless with computers, so he would not be able to verify if anything else is amiss (ex. Kubs Pad and other options being withheld). What's more, with ‘fiction things’ - such as the Shukuchi method for Ryoma - being relevant in both the ‘weird backstory’ and in the main narrative, there's a possibility that some of the Lights are real memories or at least closely based on their real experiences.
[‘A liar like me knows their own kind.’]
When you reframe the context in an excessive manner like this, it can also affect known roles, even events and relationships. I reason it beginning like this:
Tsumugi becomes a patsy for Monokuma. Just like the fake Makoto in DR2 led the narrative to trap Hajime, Tsumugi misled others similarly, with incomplete knowledge of her own cospox. That is, her cospox being real in the sense of the effects on her person, doesn't necessarily mean that HPA is fiction, because it's about her perception
Kiibo becomes a patsy for Monokuma, someone whose true (military) nature was obfuscated to himself on a metaphysical level, via code-hijacking. This means that high-powered functions he has are strange to him, and he’s easily manipulated into believing lies about his function (such as ‘strength of a senior citizen’, and the ‘audience surveys’ that he cannot verify)
Ouma becomes Monokuma’s double, like Mukuro taking the identity of Junko, as the monitors and hatch are a direct parallel to Junko. This means that Ouma has a deeper relationship and notably intrinsic connection to Monokuma as well as less freedom from him, likely has extensive knowledge of everyone, and has his own memories. And from that, an incentive to guide people he considers his friends, to minimise himself and his own struggles while working against Monokuma subtly, even to manufacture his disappearance in ch5 to take the fight to Monokuma alone
Shuichi becomes the ‘shadow mastermind’, like Izuru- the ‘traitor protagonist’ who sealed and sabotaged the group’s will to live, while losing his memory of that. This is reflected by Chapter 1's case, wherein he had created the perfect setup for Kaede to enact her own plan to kill, and had conflict over his actions that he had tried to shut away. It also provides context for Ouma being especially wary of Shuichi, noting on the whiteboard to ‘be cautious’ of him, especially if he has a relationship with Monokuma as well.
These are the big four as far as the mastermind agenda is concerned, but another interesting role-reframe is the Monokubs. Remember that Shirokuma and Kurokuma were fragments of the mastermind, and Shirokuma’s role in UDG is to deceive the player? What if the Monokubs had such a situation, split up into comedic personality fragments? Were the melodramas telling some sort of story as well- the story of Monokuma?
If so, there may be some clues from them. But first…
[‘Designed like a school’]
As to the academy’s lost mystery, it’s possible it was originally an experiment. Rantaro’s hunch was that there was ‘someone behind Monokuma’, and in Salmon mode he points out that Monokuma could have ‘taken over the facility’. A bunch of files in Shuichi’s lab suggest that the culprits of the scenarios were noted for their ‘tricks’, likely pertaining to their Ultimate talent.
A concerning matter is that the details of the Gopher Project’s plans were crossed out, with us unable to see why youngsters of Ultimate status were required. Doubly concerning is that Ouma himself appears to have amazing, even supernatural ability, demonstrated in ch5 with his scripting- a talent such as that is in line with Junko’s abilities.
Speaking of that, it must be said that Junko's true ability was left a mystery by the game's end. It was also a subject of much curiosity by HPA, so if Ouma is a supernaturally talented person, that could speak volumes as to his own position. His status as an 'invisible Ultimate’ alone raises questions as to why it has to be hidden, or rather, why he has to obscure it. It could be that he is oppressed by the talent system itself, and if that's the case, perhaps he is its guinea pig along with V3's Monokuma. But it's not just about Ouma's ability- if Monokuma too had a similarly strong supernatural talent and/or circumstance, that could explain not only his posing as a ‘god’, but Angie’s mysteriously intimate knowledge of others' personal ideals through such a ‘god’. That is, if she was possessed by someone with knowledge of the cast's ideals, and who was exploiting them in the Love Hotel.
Moreover, if Ouma and Monokuma were supernaturally gifted, there's a good possibility that if the vault clues were a layered clue symbolic of them- the ‘light’ and ‘dark’ Monokumas depicted on the ‘twins’ clue for the vault - then they were not only siblings, but twins- identical twins. This allows for another ‘report card misidentification’ a la Junko-Mukuro, while the Flashback Light panel refers to the ‘Gamemaster’ rather than ‘ringleader’ (meaning an identical double could interact with it), and from a lore perspective, twins were known in Danganronpa Kirigiri to be the subject of (highly unethical) research, and identical twins would be the most sought after for genetics reasons.
Such research could eventually wind up creating Ouma and his brother - seemingly the highest of any known talents - through a form of eugenics, not unlike Byakuya’s backstory. From there, there's no telling what could have happened…
[‘Eh…?’]
Now I can get to the psychology behind the bear. If a person behind Monokuma had such a past with this academy, traits can be speculated:
⚠️ Content: incest, child abuse, sexual abuse, psych torture/institutionalisation. ⚠️
Vengeful: in ch2, Monokuma suggests he may hate the cast for something, and tells them to ‘work for the answer’. Interestingly, Monotaro (leader persona) makes note of ‘red lies’ in the Salmon mode, and red lies are for revenge.
Extremely traumatised and mentally ill: if it is Ouma’s brother, and he’s wearing a straitjacket, this could imply institutional abuse. Monokuma’s behaviours in ch3 (a mental shutdown) and ch4 (depression) could denote severe mental damage, and having the academy cleared of bugs gives credence to him having an affliction with bugs like Ouma ( foaming at the mouth and passing out).
Depraved: in ch4, Ouma noted he would ‘strangle the one he loves’ to ‘keep his eyes on him’, and appears to play a similar threatening, possessive role in the Love Hotel. Implied in the Monokubs’ melodrama, Monokuma may have coerced his own sibling into having relations- though he may have forgotten his sibling entirely due to trauma.
People pleaser: Ouma says that he ‘lies to entertain people’ in his Salmon mode ending, which could reflect his persona (Monokuma)’s desires. It may be that his desire to ‘not be boring’ feeds into this persona, too, as it's something so serious to him that it was shown as basically a dying wish.
In this sense, the mastermind can be similar to Monaca- as she took control over the city (while Monokuma stated to have taken over the country), became mentally ill as a result of the abuse inflicted on her, lied (about an injury) in order to make her abusers nicer to her, and became depraved in a way childish and sadistic (in how she toys with Kotoko and Nagisa, for instance). There's also the narrative effect of obscuring her trauma with unreliable narrator, and even Monaca’s own warped sense of humour that obscures it in tandem.
[Twin with supernatural talent (Junko Enoshima), a result of experimentation (Izuru Kamukura), childishness complex (Monaca Towa) and all combined (Kokichi Ouma)]
For narrative styles, DRV3's Monokuma is a culmination of approaches to make the game’s mystery truly warped to its core. Taking the masterminds’ actions from the past games:
Junko selectively picked photographs to sow discord about the group’s reality
AI Junko (a plant by Izuru) tried to lead Hajime into making a choice without proper context
Monaca led Komaru through a growth journey to use her for impact at the end
These can be attributed to:
the Flashback Lights- some real, others ‘rotten apples’, but overall context is dubious
the ‘It is fiction’ declaration- may be a leading question, again with dubious context
Shuichi’s ‘confidence growth’- that makes him more credible to those watching outside
(As for ‘context being dubious’, it should be noted that the Twilight mystery has a similar vibe in terms of how it is chopped up and misrepresented on the first viewing. This is particularly interesting when you factor in the mixed Kubs Pads giving other characters information.)
Speaking of ‘using’, Monokuma talks about how someone could be used by expressions of gratitude. In parallel to this, Shuichi is talking about how he was happy to be ‘useful to others as a detective’, and regards their gratitude personally. But it’s concerning that Shuichi and his history is a topic for ‘Monokuma Theatre’, when you factor in what Monaca did in UDG.
The basic concept is: with Monokuma’s agenda towards the end being to throw out foreshadowing and mystery - to deny its purpose - he wants you to make the decision of ignoring the heart, discarding the mystery and the path to the answer. In this sort of vague and unnerving way, a ‘hidden mastermind’ is like a progression of Monaca’s style. Symbolically, Shuichi’s journey seems to be one where he is on the fringe of going astray the entire time, and in this reading, he ultimately does with the loss of the game's mystery.
What follows is the player's re-examination of the canon context and in this case, a ‘salvage effort’ of what was lost. And ultimately, in the quagmire of broken context, Ouma's mixed relationship with Shuichi is fuel for thought, because his cryptic behaviour - like the game he plays in his FTE - keeps you guessing on what he's been trying to say.
[Members… of what?]
So, factoring in earlier recontextualisation - of the large organisation likely spanning the world - is the idea brought up during Ouma's FTE, that I question like this: could Shuichi have joined a nefarious organisation after all, and following in Salmon mode: is there any indicator Ouma has concerns about Shuichi’s intentions in general (that is, regardless of whether or not his past self would have been capable of less-than-moral decisions)?
What about others in the cast- a Prime Minister who had run away from her post, a military robot, a super inventor, an assassin? An artist with odd brainwashing powers, a musician with the ability to connect to others’ hearts through music? Because given that the DR2 group had affected the world with their talents after being manipulated, it's possible that the V3 group’s talents had a similar part to play, too. For instance, Kaito’s FTE detailed the possibility of communicating with aliens, and trading technology with them- and as it happens, there is notably a very weird technology in the academy, capable of ridiculous feats. This kind of unknown in the narrative speaks of a whole world that we barely know, even now.
If this kind of world is what Ouma is burdened by, something beyond the protagonist's understanding, that too is a story waiting to be told. And his strange interactions with Shuichi could be at the heart of this story…
[‘Just hit the reset button on your feelings’]
As for the relationship with Shuichi, that is particularly difficult to give in evidence- partly given the culprit in his backstory, and how if Monokuma was that culprit - someone with a strong agenda against Shuichi - that might link to both twins. But due to the death of one of the siblings in that backstory, it warrants a supernatural idea such as resurrection, that has yet to be proven viable in-universe. If we remember Angie having a weird supernatural air about her though, and that she was implied to be in a cult, you could still infer that cults were involved in the supernatural. It’s entirely possible that a high-profile cult had come to the point of using resurrections, although that’s very much deeplore, as is the supernatural in general.
So while I can’t say too much about technical lore, like with the organisation, I can talk about the vibes I have with the theory, to focus on a sense of grounding in character instead:
“Ouma and Monokuma are both sidelined by the narrative. A not-insignificant part of that was caused by Shuichi in his past, even if he was led into the cause unwittingly, and the actions of Shuichi’s present self in missing memories. As a result, Ouma is in a nerfed position during the game despite his supernatural talent. Unable to say anything without surveillance, he is under a great deal of stress and pent up, ambivalent feelings - not least towards Shuichi and Monokuma - that he tries mostly to deflect. After all, it would not do to give too much away, and ruin his own plans.”
I have a detailed ‘song lyric analysis’ of sorts to tie to this, as a way of exploring feelings. Part of the reason I’d go this far, is Ouma as the designated ‘narrative scapegoat’ has always just fit well for me, given that the cast is shown to struggle with their treatment of him. Even leaving analysis aside, I feel it would be very satisfying (cathartic, even!) to explore an angle where he was suppressed, and that his position was legitimately the consequence of others actions right from the start, making the whole ‘pretending to be a villain’ situation even more painfully ironic.
Plus it would be a welcome change from the notion of ‘misguided morally-grey antagonist who needs to change’, in my opinion, as Ouma’s unchanging self is something I hold particularly strongly. So instead of the arc of drastic change, the thing to explore would be how he functions and struggles with others (in mundane as well as grand ways), and also gets them to change, to understand him. It would also be interesting to expand on the theme of talent abuse, to have a Monokuma who was a product of the corrupt talent system- rather like Izuru was, but this time fully present in the narrative, and in tandem with someone else connected to him.
Overall, I feel that a situation where the protagonist thinks he’s won, while a mysterious someone has been struggling in the sidelines to affect change, is a real goldmine for a mystery situation. Especially from replaying the game, and picking up odd signs that something may not have been what it seemed. There may not be much to go from there (as things stand right now, at least) but the palpable frustration means that through this perspective, I can - at times very viscerally - imagine Ouma’s frustration and powerlessness. That alone colours the game and the interactions in a whole new light for me.
I hope this helped clarify at least some of what the heck is going on- and why I would even see Ouma this way at all, if it’s so convoluted. I have struggled to put it into words all this time, but with the pieces flying in my face from every direction, it’s hard to not try putting them together. I usually don’t game on Hard Mode like this, but something about Ouma compels me- whatever Kodaka’s intentions, I believe him when he says Danganronpa V3 is without end.
Thank you for reading!
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