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mariacallous · 7 months

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As the news that Russian opposition politician Alexey Navalny had died in prison on Friday spread, thousands of people around the world expressed their grief at his loss and their anger at the Russian authorities. Now, many are trying to understand the broader implications of his death. Belarusian writer and recipient of the 2015 Nobel Prize in Literature Svetlana Alexievich spoke with the Belarusian newspaper Nasha Niva about the potential impact Navalny’s death could have on political prisoners in Belarus, its implications for authoritarian leaders’ impunity, and its far-reaching consequences for global power dynamics. Meduza is sharing some of her thoughts.

On Alexey Navalny’s death

The whole world is in mourning today. I looked at Meduza’s newsfeed and saw reactions from people all over the world: politicians, writers, musicians. Everyone is stunned. Of course, there’s shock over the level of cruelty that we’ve allowed evil to reach. [Evil] has spread to such an extent that it’s doing things we couldn’t even imagine. Although we knew these authorities’ nature.

The most frightening thing for Belarus is that we have almost 2,000 political prisoners, and our leaders are also in prison. Maybe someone is in a ShIZO now. We’ve heard nothing from Maryia Kalesnikava or Viktar Babaryka. We know nothing about Mikalai Statkevich. And there’s this feeling that at any moment, we could hear that the worst has happened to them.

Dictators learn from each other. Navalny’s death has opened up an abyss of impunity for dictators around the world (they’re all in cahoots), especially in Belarus. Now, anything could happen. The authorities have been given this leeway. As it turns out, they can do anything — and the world will be helpless. The country will be helpless. The authorities will go unpunished. That’s what’s truly frightening.

There’s hope that after Navalny’s murder, the world will see that Putin, like Hitler, is capable of dragging the world into a world war; he won’t stop. We need to help Ukraine as much as possible, or we’ll have to pay an even higher price. A new Hitler with new technologies will be more terrifying than what we’ve seen from history.

On Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Yulia Navalnaya’s meeting

These are touching images. It made me think: men are the ones fighting, but war kills women most of all. Imagine Yulia’s soul — a beautiful woman, Navalny’s loyal friend. Or Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s, who for so long has had no idea what’s happening with her husband. That’s why women face a more terrible war.

On Russian President Vladimir Putin

He’s a cruel person. He’s a KGB man, not a politician, so he’s capable of anything. It would seem unthinkable to kill one’s main opponent, the main opposition figure, a politician. A powerful person wouldn’t consider such a thing; they’d value a strong opponent. A weak person does what we’ve seen.

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carmenvicinanza · 2 years

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Maria Kalesnikava

https://www.unadonnalgiorno.it/maria-kalesnikava/

Maria Kalesnikava è la musicista diventata il simbolo della resistenza bielorussa.

Nel settembre del 2021 è stata condannata a 11 anni di carcere, per cospirazione contro il regime, perché ha osato sfidare il dittatore Alexander Lukashenko che, nell’estate del 2020, si è dichiarato vincitore senza permettere che venisse terminato lo spoglio e ha cominciato a eliminare, arrestare e reprimere chiunque gli si opponesse.

Maria Kalesnikava è nata il 24 aprile 1982 a Minsk. Si è diplomata all’Accademia Statale Bielorussa di Musica come flautista e direttrice d’orchestra. Ha suonato il flauto nella National Academic Concert Orchestra del suo paese.

Ha conseguito due master all’Università di Stoccarda e organizzato progetti culturali tra Germania e Bielorussia, fondato il collettivo artistico Artemp ed è stata direttrice artistica del club culturale OK16 a Minsk.

Nel 2020 è scesa in campo dopo l’esilio forzato di Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya divenendo la figura dell’opposizione di più alto profilo del paese.Ha condotto numerose proteste di piazza, tutte pacifiche e che hanno visto la partecipazione di decine di migliaia di persone, contenute da agenti di polizia violenti. Ha rilasciato numerose interviste ai media internazionali e continuato a sostenere coloro che avevano subito arresti arbitrari, torture e maltrattamenti durante la detenzione. Diventando, in breve tempo la leader del consiglio di coordinamento dell’opposizione. Il 7 settembre dello stesso anno è stata rapita da uomini mascherati e trascinata in un furgone, insieme ad altri due leader dell’opposizione costretti a lasciare il paese. Maryia Kalesnikava è riuscita a evitare l’espulsione in Ucraina strappando il suo passaporto. Per più di 48 ore le autorità bielorusse non comunicavano la sua posizione.È stata arrestata con l’accusa di minare la sicurezza nazionale, di aver cospirato per prendere il potere con mezzi incostituzionali e aver creato una formazione estremista.Con questa motivazione, il 6 settembre 2021, il tribunale regionale di Minsk l’ha condannata a 11 anni di detenzione in un carcere di massima sicurezza.

Un processo tenutosi in gran fretta perché fungesse da monito per tutte le persone che manifestano, per le quali è diventata un simbolo di resistenza, dignità e coraggio.

Quando ha ricevuto la condanna Maria Kalesnikava aveva unito le mani (con le manette) a formare il cuore, immagine che ha fatto il giro del mondo rendendola la più nota protagonista della resistenza bielorussa.

Da qualche giorno è ricoverata in terapia intensiva, era in isolamento e al suo avvocato non viene permesso di vederla.

Un grave attentato ai diritti umani di una donna che è riuscita a portare l’attenzione mondiale sui soprusi di un governo dittatoriale.

#unadonnalgiorno #maria kalesnikava #bielorussia

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chasenews · 3 years

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#Belarus: Leading opposition figures sentenced to jail for peaceful protests

Riot police in Belarus © Valery Sharifulin/TASS Maryia Kalesnikava and Maksim Znak sentenced to 11 and 10 years respectively‘[Mariya and Maksim’s sentences are] designed to crush the hopes of the millions of people they spoke for’ – Bruce MillarToday’s sentencing of Maryia Kalesnikava, the face of last year’s peaceful protests in Belarus, and her close associate, lawyer Maksim Znak is a disaster…

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nedsecondline · 4 years

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‘Not a voluntary exit’. After top Belarusian opposition leader disappears in Minsk, she’s arrested at border with Ukraine Maria Kolesnikova (Maryia Kalesnikava), one of the leaders of the Belarusian opposition, was arrested at the border with Ukraine on the morning of September 8, says the Belarusian State Border Committee.

#OddBox

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euromaidanpress · 4 years

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[editorial]Today, Belarus goes to vote for president. It is an unusual election in many senses. Incumbent “last dictator of Europe” President Lukashenka faces unprecedented resistance. Unsurprisingly, the opposition candidates were either jailed or not allowed to run. Surprisingly, the wife of a jailed candidate has decided to run for president herself – and has attracted enormous support. Belarusian analyst Alex Kokcharov tells what you need to know about the election, in a nutshell.[/editorial]

Today is the day of the presidential election in my native Belarus. It is the sixth election in Belarusian history. Only the 1994 election was deemed free and fair, and votes in 2001, 2006, 2010, and 2015 were marred by electoral fraud and government repression.

An electoral poster bears the date of the election, 9 August 2020. Photo: Vadim Zamirovsky, tut.by

When the election was announced in early May 2020, it was expected that they would closely resemble the vote of 2015. During it Lukashenka, in power in Belarus since 1994, ran against a crowd of extras who did not really present any threat to him.

Alyaksandr Lukashenka, President of Belarus since 1994, is often called “Europe’s last dictator.” This collage shows Lukashenka during the five electoral campaigns he “won”

It quickly emerged that Lukashenka would be challenged from an unexpected front. Not by the established opposition, mostly confined to identity politics, but by new figures – banker Viktar Babaryka, YouTube blogger Siarhei Tsikhanouski, and ex-diplomat Valery Tsapkala.

Siarhei Tsikhanouski. Photo: tut.by

Viktar Babaryka. Photo: tut.by

Valery Tsapkala. Photo: tut.by

All these three challengers were ultimately eliminated from the race by the repressive state machine. Babaryka and Tsikhanouski got detained on dubious charges, and all three were ultimately not registered. But then an unexpected twist happened, which changed the race.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the wife of the detained blogger, decided to run for the presidency in his place. And she was ultimately registered as a candidate, as the sexist incumbent did not expect that a woman, let alone a housewife can be a real challenge in this election.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. Photo: belsat.eu

On 14 July the Central Election Commission (CEC) registered Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya as one of the 5 presidential candidates. Two other alternative candidates – Viktar Babaryka and Valery Tsapkala were disqualified on alleged procedural grounds.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is registered as a candidate in the presidential elections. Photo: naviny.by

Two days later Sviatlana united forces with campaigns of Babaryka (with his campaign chief Maryia Kalesnikava in the photo on the left) and Tsapkala (with his wife Veranika on the right). This pulled together resources and people.

After the arrest/disqualification of all of Lukashenka’s contenders, Sviatlana Tsekhanouskaya, the wife of one of them, registered instead; she was joined by campaigns of the other two disqualified candidates. Photo: electoral HQ of Viktar Babaryka

Social media in Belarus quickly responded to Tsikhanouskaya’s candidacy – and her strongly feminist campaign, aided by other female politicians – with memes. And these memes clearly paint her as a favored candidate for those on the internet:

From late July Sviatlana and her team toured Belarus gathering massive crowds of supporters – with up to 70,000 in Minsk and up to 20,000 in regional cities. This is an unprecedented level of political mobilization in Belarus in recent decades:

A rally in Minsk. Photo: belrynok.by

A rally in Brest. Photo: belsat.eu

A rally in Minsk. Photo: Tanya Kapitonova, belsat.eu

A rally in Minsk. Photo: belsat.eu

A rally in Minsk. Photo: tut.by

A rally in Brest. Photo: belsat.eu

A rally in Minsk. Photo: belsat.eu

A rally in Minsk. Photo: Tanya Kapitonova, belsat.eu

Sviatlana’s electoral program is simple:

Release all the political prisoners.

Hold a referendum on returning to the 1994 constitution, bringing back checks and balances to the political system.

Hold a fresh presidential election within 6 months.

The Belarusian authorities resorted to the usual tactics: they disrupted Sviatlana’s campaign events in the past week, detained protesters, and declared turnout of 41.7% in the 5 days of early voting (a method of electoral rigging).

A comparison of the early turnout in the five days before election day in 2020, 2015, 2020. Photo: Svaboda.org

Political opinion polls are banned in Belarus, therefore we do not know the electoral sentiment. But based on large protest support for Tsikhanouskaya, it looks as incumbent Lukashenka enjoys no more than 20-25% (or less!) support – mostly the loyalists and the siloviki.

In a free and fair election, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya would probably emerge as a winner. But Belarus being Belarus, I expect that the CEC will declare Lukashenka as the winner of the election, with some 70-75% of the vote. Such a result will be a complete fabrication.

A screenshot of a video report featuring Tsikhanouskaya

So the big question is what happens in the days after the election. Protests are likely, but the police are likely to use force to disperse and detain protesters in large numbers. There are already reports of military vehicles on the streets of Minsk:

Photo: svaboda.org

If there is significant violence by the police and security services against peaceful protesters in Minsk and other cities in Belarus, this will likely lead to calls for Western countries (EU, US, etc) to re-introduce sanctions against Lukashenka and his regime.

If new Western sanctions against Belarusian leadership emerge, Lukashenka’s victory will become a Pyrrhic one, as it will weaken him in any negotiations with Russia. Putin is likely to push for more concessions, including further political integration & military bases.

Vladimir Putin and Alyaksandr Lukashenka, the authoritarian rulers of Russia and Belarus

So by keeping power in Minsk in this year’s sham “election,” Lukashenka is actually likely to lose out as Belarusian sovereignty will likely be eroded further by the Union State of Russia and Belarus.

Photo: tut.by

An alternative scenario, albeit less likely: if Belarusians do not stop the resistance despite the government repression, and continue with non-violent but longer-term resistance, through strikes and peaceful protests. This will crack the elites, eroding Lukashenka’s power.

https://twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1288941790578593793

Under this scenario, a “Velvet Revolution” similar to that of Armenia in 2018, can emerge, with groups of the elites – and siloviki – withdrawing their support for Lukashenka, and switching side to the popular sentiment. However, I think that this scenario is less likely.

During the Velvet Revolution in Armenia

My hope for the next few days is that there is no excessive police violence on streets of Minsk and other cities, and that no blood will be shed. Belarus deserves a better future than the one offered by the current repressive state built by Lukashenka in the past 26 years.

During a protest on 19 June. Photo: nn.by

[box]Alex Kokcharov is a Belarus-born but London-based political and security risk analyst focused on Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus.

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