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[inhandnetworks-blog]

New Calculations Challenge Assumptio Industrial 3G Router  ns about Rigid Lithosphere

www.inhandnetworks.com

A map produced by scientists at the University of Nevada, Reno, and Rice University shows predicted velocities for sectors of the Pacific tectonic plate relative to points near the Pacific-Antarctic ridge, which lies in the South Pacific ocean. The researchers show the Pacific plate is contracting as younger sections of the lithosphere cool. Credit: Corné Kreemer and Richard Gordon

A newly published study from geophysicists Rice University and the University of Nevada challenge assumptions about a rigid lithosphere, revealing that the Pacific plate is shrinking as it cools.

Houston – The tectonic plate that dominates the Pacific “Ring of Fire” is not as rigid as many scientists assume, according to researchers at Rice University and the University of Nevada.

Rice geophysicist Richard Gordon and his colleague, Corné Kreemer, an associate professor at the University of Nevada, Reno, ha Industrial IoT Gateway  ve determined that cooling of the lithosphere — the outermost layer of Earth — makes some sections of the Pacific plate contract horizontally at faster rates than others and cause the plate to deform.

Gordon said the effect detailed this month in Geology is most pronounced in the youngest parts of the lithosphere — about 2 million years old or less — that make up some the Pacific Ocean’s floor. They predict the rate of contraction to be 10 times faster than older parts of the plate that were created about 20 million years ago and 80 times faster than very old parts of the plate that were created about 160 million years ago.

The tectonic plates that cover Earth’s surface, including both land and seafloor, are in constant motion; they imperceptibly surf the viscous mantle below. Over time, the plates scrape against and collide into each other, forming mountains, trenches and other geological features.

On the local scale, these movements cover only inches per year and are hard to see. The same goes for deformations of the type described in the new paper, but when summed over an area the size of the Pacific plate, they become statistically significant, Gordon said.

The new calculations showed the Pacific plate is pulling away from the North American plate a little more — approximately 2 millimeters a year — than the rigid-plate theory would account for, he said. Overall, the plate is moving northwest about 50 millimeters a year.

“The central assumption in plate tectonics is that the plates are rigid, but the studies that my colleagues and I have been doing for the past few decades show that this central assumption is merely an approximation — that is, the plates are not rigid,” Gordon said. “Our latest contribution is to specify or predict the nature and rate of deformation over the entire Pacific plate.”

The researchers already suspected cooling had a role from their observation that the 25 large and small plates that make up Earth’s shell do not fit together as well as the “rigid model” assumption would have it. They also knew that lithosphere as young as 2 million years was more malleable than hardened lithosphere as old as 170 million years.

“We first showed five years ago that the rate of horizontal contraction is inversely proportional to the age of the seafloor,” he said. “So it’s in the youngest lithosphere (toward the east side of the Pacific plate) where you get the biggest effects.”

The researchers saw hints of deformation in a metric called plate circuit closure, which describes the relative motions where at least three plates meet. If the plates were rigid, their angular velocities at the triple junction would have a sum of zero. But where the Pacific, Nazca and Cocos plates meet west of the Galápagos Islands, the nonclosure velocity is 14 millimeters a year, enough to suggest that all three plates are deforming.

“When we did our first global model in 1990, we said to ourselves that maybe when we get new data, this issue will go away,Power Fault Detection” Gordon said. “But when we updated our model a few years ago, all the places that didn’t have plate circuit closure 20 years ago still didn’t have it.”

There had to be a reason, and it began to become clear when Gordon and his colleagues looked beneath the seafloor. “It’s long been understood that the ocean floor increases in depth with age due to cooling and thermal contraction. But if something cools, it doesn’t just cool in one direction. It’s going to be at least approximately isotropic. It should shrink the same in all directions, not just vertically,” he said.

A previous study by Gordon and former Rice graduate student Ravi Kumar calculated the effect of thermal contraction on vertical columns of oceanic lithosphere and determined its impact on the horizontal plane, but viewing the plate as a whole demanded a different approach. “We thought about the vertically integrated properties of the lithosphere, but once we did that, we realized Earth’s surface is still a two-dimensional problem,” he said.

For the new study, Gordon and Kreemer started by determining how much the contractions would, on average, strain the horizontal surface. They divided the Pacific plate into a grid and calculated the strain on each of the nearly 198,000 squares based on their age, as determined by the seafloor age model published by the National Geophysical Data Center.

“That we could calculate on a laptop,” Gordon said. &ldquo goose-messaging-  ;If we tried to do it in three dimensions, it would take a high-powered computer cluster.”

The surface calculations were enough to show likely strain fields across the Pacific plate that, when summed, accounted for the deformation. As further proof, the distribution of recent earthquakes in the Pacific plate, which also relieve the strain, showed a greater number occurring in the plate’s younger lithosphere. “In the Earth, those strains are either accommodated by elastic deformation or by little earthquakes that adjust it,” he said.

“The central assumption of plate tectonics assumes the plates are rigid, and this is what we make predictions from,” said Gordon, who was recently honored by the American Geophysical Union for writing two papers about plate movements that are among the top 40 papers ever to appear in one of the organization’s top journals. “Up until now, it’s worked really well.”

“The big picture is that we now have, subject to experimental and observational tests, the first realistic, quantitative estimate of how the biggest oceanic plate departs from that rigid-plate assumption.”

The National Science Foundation supported the research. Gordon is the Keck Professor of Geophysics and chairman of the Earth Science Department at Rice.

Publication: Corné Kreemer and Richard G. Gordon, “Pacific plate deformation from horizontal thermal contraction,” Geology, 2014; doi: 10.1130/G35874.1

Image: Corné Kreemer and Richard Gordon

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[inhandnetworks-blog]

Economy: Is The Dollar As Weak As Conservatives Say?

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It's an article of faith among many analysts that the U.S. dollar is in trouble. The response to the financial crisis, they say, has debased the currency. The culprits are the Federal Reserve, which slashed interest rates to zero, printed money, and vastly expanded its balance sheet, and the Obama administration, which has run up huge deficits by embracing Keynesian efforts to stimulate the economy.

As early as July 2008—months before the presidential election—McCain economic adviser Douglas Holtz-Eakin blamed the weak dollar on Obama. Here's a typical piece from Conservative Daily News arguing that the administration is weakening the dollar to boost exports. Niall Ferguson, author of this declinist, anti-Keynesian Newsweek cover story, last October said the dollar could fall another 20 percent against the euro over the next few years. John Paulson, who made billions betting against subprime mortgages, as chronicled by Gregory Zuckerman in the The Greatest Trade Ever, is bearish on the dollar too.

But like so much of what conservatives have been saying recently about the economy and economic policy, this weak-dollar argument ignores current data and recent history.

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It's fair to argue that Bernanke, President Bush, and President Obama didn't have much choice other than to cut interest rates, backstop markets, and bail out financial institutions. The expensive components of the bailout—the TARP, the formal assumption of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's debts, the rescue of AIG—started on Bush's watch, not on Obama's. What's more, the soaring deficit is as much a function of a collapse in tax revenues as of reckless new spending. Did you know that in the first two months of the current fiscal year, spending is actually down 4 percent from the first two months of last fiscal year? (Alas, revenues are down 4.3 percent.)

But have Bernanke and Obama made the dollar weaker? Has the response to the crisis, which started with the Bush administration in the summer of 2008, debased the currency? Not really. The broadest measure of the dollar's strength is the trade-weighted dollar, which measures the dollar's value against a basket of currencies of our trading partners. (Here's a helpful list of our top 10 trading partners: Canada, China, Mexico, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, South Korea, France, Taiwan, and Brazil.) Here's a long-term chart of the trade-weighted dollar index. What it shows, first of all, is that since the onset of the crisis in earnest—which I'd date to the spring of 2008, when Bear Stearns failed—the dollar has actually gained ground against the currencies of our biggest trading partners. It spiked in reaction to the panic in the fall of 2008, as investors sought a safe haven in the dollar, then fell back in 2009 before turning up again recently. It currently sits about 7 percent higher than the low of mid-2008 and almost exactly where it did in the fall of 2007, before the troubles started. A two-year chart would thus show a currency that hasn't been debased much at all.

Even when you view the performance of the dollar against individual currencies, there's no strong evidence the dollar has been debased. The dollar has definitely lost ground against some currencies, such as the Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan, as this chart shows. (Of course, movement against the yuan is largely a function of China's mercantilist policies—not a function of investors placing bets on the relative value of currencies. Virtually everybody agrees that the dollar should be weaker against the Chinese currency.)

But against other currencies, the dollar has essentially been stable since the onset of the crisis. Here's a five-year chart of the dollar against the euro, whose users collectively constitute a massive trading partner for the United States. It shows the dollar is basically where it was in October 2007, and has rallied since July 2008. Ditto for the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar. Against some other currencies of big trading partners—the British pound, the Mexican peso, the South Korean won—the dollar has actually rallied significantly.

The charts do tell a story of long-term decline. But it didn't start in January 2009, with the inauguration of President Obama. And it didn't start in March 2008, when the Fed rushed to the aid of the financial system by guaranteeing some of Bear Stearns' assets. Look again at the long-term chart of the trade-weighted dollar. Between the peak in 2002 and the trough in 2008, the dollar lost 27 percent of its value. If you're inclined to blame the chief monetary and fiscal officers of the country—the chairman of the Fed and the president—then it sure looks like Alan Greenspan and George W. Bush debased the currency something fierce.

The dollar's recent upturn and relative stability could be a mirage. It's entirely possible that currency could collapse if inflation surges or economic conditions deteriorate. If you believe the U.S. economy will scrape along bottom for the next few years and that inflation will spike, then prolonged dollar weakness seems likely. But if you believe the economic recovery is picking up steam; that the economy may grow at a rate between 3 percent and 4 percent in 2010 (as of Friday, Macroeconomic Advisers said fourth-quarter GDP was tracking at a 5.4 percent annual rate); that the United States will grow more rapidly than the United Kingdom, the Eurozone, and Japan; and that inflation, which has risen just 1.8 percent in the past 12 months, will remain under control, then the greenback's prospects look more rosy.

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