#Zeteo/Data for Progress poll

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By Julia Conley

Common Dreams

May 08, 2024

"The Democratic establishment is dysfunctionally out of touch with its voters on this issue," said one strategist.

A day after U.S. President Joe Biden commemorated the Holocaust, speaking about Americans' "obligation to learn the lessons of history" to ensure another mass slaughter of a religious or ethnic group never takes place, new polling showed the majority of U.S. voters whose support Biden is counting on in November believe Israel—with U.S. backing—is now committing genocide.

Journalist Mehdi Hasan's new media organization, Zeteo, partnered with progressive think tank Data for Progress to poll 1,265 U.S. voters from April 26-29, as Israel's ground invasion of Rafah loomed, threatening more than 1 million Palestinians in Gaza who have been forcibly displaced since October.

The poll released Wednesday found that 56% of Democratic voters believe Israel is committing a genocide against Palestinians in the enclave, where in addition to constant bombings and ground attacks, residents have faced Israel's blockade on nearly all humanitarian aid. The blockade has pushed northern Gaza into famine and is causing acute food insecurity among the entire population.

Nearly 40% of all voters believe Israel is committing a genocide, and 7 in 10 support a permanent cease-fire.

More than 50% of voters said Israel's full-scale assault on Gaza, where 2.3 million Palestinians live, has been ineffective at bringing the Israeli hostages kidnapped by Hamas on October 7 to safety.

Fifty-four percent said they support suspending all U.S. arms sales to Israel until it stops blocking American humanitarian aid from entering Gaza. Such a suspension would be in accordance with Section 620I of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961.

Israel and the U.S. have repeatedly claimed that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is taking steps to protect the lives of civilians—even as the world has learned of mass graves found with the bodies of Palestinian women and children, some with their hands tied behind their backs. In April, Israeli journalist Yuval Abraham of +972 Magazine reported that military officials have permitted up to 100 civilian deaths for every Hamas member killed, and that the IDF has targeted Hamas fighters in their homes instead of at military outposts.

The Zeteo/Data for Progress poll was released more than four months after the International Court of Justice announced an interim ruling that Israel is "plausibly" committing genocide, which came after South Africa brought its case to the United Nations court.

South African attorney Tembeka Ngcukaitobi gave a 22-minute speech during the hearing, cataloging the numerous genocidal statements made by top Israeli officials since October, up to that point. Last week, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for the "total annihilation" of Gaza cities including Rafah.

The poll was also released as mass protests continued on college campuses across the U.S., with police aggressively cracking down at many schools as they ignore attacks on students by pro-Israel mobs, as in the case of University of California, Los Angeles last week.

A separate poll released Wednesday by USA Today and Suffolk University found that Democratic voters are split in their views of the movement. Thirty percent supported the protests, while 39% agreed with their demands but questioned some of their tactics. Two-thirds of respondents said they feared more violent confrontations would arise from the protests.

The Data for Progress survey is the latest sign that Biden, who signed a foreign aid package including $17 billion in additional military aid for Israel last month, faces widespread discontent among the coalition of voters that supported him in 2020. In January, The Economist and YouGov found that a full 50% of people who voted for him believed Israel was committing genocide.

More than 100,000 Democratic primary voters in Michigan—which Biden won by just 150,000 votes in 2020—voted for "uncommitted" on their ballots in February, hoping to send the message to the president that U.S. support for Israel must end. Similar results were seen in primaries in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Washington state.

Strategist Nadia Rahman said the poll shows the Democratic establishment is "dysfunctionally out of touch with its voters on this issue."

"This is some of the clearest data yet that there's a massive disconnect between the media and what's happening on the ground," said journalist Ed Oswald. "And why yes, Biden's re-election is in big trouble."

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Ryan O'Donnell at Zeteo News:

In the wake of a newly proposed ceasefire deal put forth by the White House and on the heels of President Joe Biden saying people have “every reason” to think Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is extending the war in Gaza to stay in power, a new Data for Progress survey fielded from June 5 to 6 shows that a plurality of U.S. likely voters (49%) believe Netanyahu is a major or moderate obstacle to achieving peace between Israel and Palestine. Only 18% of voters believe the prime minister is not an obstacle at all.

When asked who is primarily responsible for the lack of a permanent ceasefire in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, a plurality of voters (38%) believe both Netanyahu and Hamas share equal responsibility. This sentiment is particularly strong among swing voters, who believe that Netanyahu and Hamas are equally responsible for the lack of a permanent ceasefire by a 19-point margin over Hamas individually.

Moreover, when asked about Biden’s three-phase ceasefire proposal announced on May 31, a significant majority of voters (64%) express their support. This includes a notable +37 net support from Independents and +44 from swing voters, highlighting widespread approval across various political demographics.

A Data For Progress/Zeteo News poll conducted betwen June 5th and 6th reveals that 65% of voters believe that Israel Apartheid State PM Benjamin Netanyahu is at least a minor obstacle to achieving peace. The same poll reveals that 38% blame both Netanyahu and Hamas for the lack of a permanent ceasefire, 36% blame solely Hamas, and 13# blame solely Netanyahu.

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Citing Israel's killing of over 36,000 Palestinians in Gaza and its defiance of a World Court order to stop attacking Rafah, the NAACP on Wednesday joined the hundreds of human rights and civil society organizations urging the Biden administration to halt weapons transfers to Israel.

The leading U.S. civil rights group noted Israel's defiance of the International Court of Justice's May 24 order to stop attacking the southern Gaza city of Rafah and the Israel Defense Force's (IDF) May 26 bombing of a refugee encampment there that killed and wounded hundreds of Palestinians, including many women and children.

"The total death toll of Gazans has reached over 36,000 with another 81,000 injured," the NAACP said. "Nearly 500 Palestinians in the West Bank, including 117 children, have also been killed."

NAACP president and CEO Derrick Johnson acknowledged the "tragedy" of October 7, when an attack by Hamas-led militants left more than 1,100 Israelis and others dead—at least some of whom were killed by Israeli fire—and over 240 others taken as hostages.

"It is our hope that those with loved ones still in captivity are reunited as expeditiously as possible," he said in a statement, adding that "Hamas must return the hostages and stop all terrorist activity."

"The Middle East conflict will only be resolved when the U.S. government and international community take action, including limiting access to weapons used against civilians," Johnson stressed. "The NAACP calls on President [Joe] Biden to draw the red line and indefinitely end the shipment of weapons and artillery to the state of Israel and other states that supply weapons to Hamas and other terrorist organizations."

That red line has repeatedly shifted. In March, Biden agreed that any Israeli invasion of Rafah—where around 1.5 million Palestinians forcibly displaced from other parts of Gaza were sheltering alongside local residents at the time—would constitute a "red line."

Last month, as Israeli forces invaded Rafah, Biden qualified his red line by saying it would only be crossed in the event of a "major" assault on the city. Israeli forces have blasted their way to the heart of the city since then, killing and wounding at least hundreds of civilians. More than 1 million people have fled Rafah, according to United Nations officials.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken then denied that Biden had drawn any red line in Rafah, tellingNBC News "Meet the Press" host Kristen Welker on May 12 that "we don't talk about red lines when it comes to Israel."

Democratic strategists are worried about Biden losing Black votes over his complicity in the Gaza carnage. Polling shows Biden's support among Black Americans has dropped significantly since 2020, as it has among Muslim Americans and others concerned about Palestine. According to a Zeteo/Data for Progress survey published last month, a majority of Democratic voters of all races believe Israel is committing genocide in Gaza