#and this particular threat of spite would be very much invested in the setting and deal with themes

[regallibellbright]

God, I hope I manage to get people reading this fic even a HUNDREDTH as invested in this character and the family I completely invented out of whole cloth for him who have been living rent-free in my head for like two years now and steadfastly refused to make a story work until now, because I needed to get a good bit out of my head before I went to sleep, made myself cry because I cry ABSURDLY easily, and now it’s like four hours later and I need to actually get to FUCKING BED ALREADY but words keep coming, my fic is too sad, and I use a CPAP that already finds my face shape tricky and don’t want to combine that with my messy crying.

I’m just saying, it’s not fair I inflict this on myself while WRITING it. Rereading it later, sure, I’m fine with that, but writing it? What am I doing, using these characters as an outlet for emotional catharsis? Gross. Inefficient. I can’t keep writing when I need to routinely stop and wipe my eyes.

[lucemferto]

I talk about the current troubles of the Dream SMP.

If you want to help me out, please reblog! You can also retweet my tweet and upvote my reddit post. Thank you.

Script under the cut

I really hope Technoblade succeeds in breaking Dream out of prison.

Now why would I say that? Well, it’s because there’s this feeling in the fandom right now that Dream SMP Season 3 is … going slow. That there’s not much happening. Some have blamed it on the pace of how lore streams are doled out, saying we get too little lore stretched out over too much time. Others postulate that it’s the quality of the lore – that the individual plot points are badly told or that the high production value of certain streams prevent the story from gaining momentum.

Now, because I’m me, I think I identified the problem as something that’s structurally wrong with Season 3 as opposed to Seasons 1 and 2. In order to explain that we must look at one of my favourite narratological theories: the Three-Act-Structure.

But before we get into that, here’s your obligatory reminder to please like this video, comment your thoughts down below in order to help me with YouTube’s algorithm and subscribe if you really like my stuff. Please feel free to check out my social media presences and share my videos on there so that more people have the chance to see them. Thank you so much.

Let’s get back to the video:

 Chapter 1: The Three-Act-Structure Explained

The Three-Act-Structure as a model to explain narratives finds its roots far in the past with its earliest recorded instance being in the fourth century by the Roman grammarian Aelius Donatus though similar ideas were also expressed by everyone’s favourite Greek philosopher Aristotle.

Since then, the model has been continuously evolved and used throughout recorded history. There are also alternative models such as the Five-Act-Structure, the Six-Act-Structure, the Eight-Act-Structure, the … Nine-Act-Structure, Jesus Christ. But the Three-Act-Structure has reigned the undisputed champion in modern-day creation and analysis of narratives.

The particulars of the Three-Act-Structure as we know it today were codified in Syd Field’s 1979 work “Screenplay: The Foundations of Screenwriting”, which has since become the Go-To-Work when it comes being a screenwriter in Hollywood. You want to write a script? You need the read the “Screenplay”.

The modern Three-Act-Structure is comprised of the following points/sequences:

-       The Backstory/Exposition: Exactly what it says on the tin. Sets up the Ordinary World that the characters inhabit, let’s us know about what character’s general deal is. It serves as an introduction to the story and world of your narrative.

-       The Point of Attack: This one is not often talked about and doesn’t feature in every story, but it’s still worth mentioning. This is where the major tension/conflict/dramatic question (structurally, these terms fulfil roughly the same function) is set into motion. It usually doesn’t include the protagonists of the story, but rather the antagonists.

-       The Inciting Incident: This is where the protagonists are sent on their way. We are introduced to their personal conflict and given a reason as to why they would have to leave the Ordinary World behind.

-       The Turning Point: This marks the end of Act I, where the personal conflicts of the protagonists and the major conflict of the overarching story intersect and coalesce. It is the natural fallout of the inciting incident, the big dramatic status quo change that we need in order to get the story going.

This naturally leads into Act II, where all the minor character conflicts are resolved and integrated into the larger conflict. This is what is referred to as the Rising Action: through the resolution and incorporation of the minor conflicts into the major conflicts, the story gains momentum. The action rises.

This act has two big culminations:

-       The Mid Point: The first culmination or Mid-Point sees some sort of shift in the major conflict. Maybe all the minor conflicts set-up in Act I are resolved and thus the major conflict becomes the full focus or the major conflict gains an additional factor. Instead of defeating the evil bad guy, the Heroes now have to defeat the Bad Guy and save the Damsel

-       The Lowest Point: The Lowest Point marks the end of Act II. Here the villains are just short of victory or maybe even achieve victory. In a romantic movie, this is the cliché end of Act II fallout which naturally leads into chasing the Hero chasing the love interest into an airport.

With the Lowest Point, the Heroes begin the third act almost or fully defeated. The stakes are high and everything seems hopeless. But then comes:

-       The Twist/Resolution: Usually, the twist coincides with either the protagonist or some sort of character having a eureka-moment or resolving their personal conflict – their Want vs. Need.

-       The Climax: With their problems resolved, the protagonists can venture forth to stop the villains or antagonistic force or save their love life.

-       The Dénouement: After the villain’s defeat/the resolution of the final conflict, the protagonist returns to the ordinary world, but changed by their experiences. The Dénouement is the one part of Act III, that can really drag it out – think the many, many endings of Return of the King for instance.

Up until now, I usually focused on that end of Act II/Act III-part when discussing the storytelling of the Dream SMP such as the Final Disc War, November 16th or Doomsday. Because Doomsday wasn’t just the Lowest Point in terms of storytelling quality.

But for Season 3, I instead want to focus on this section, The Inciting Incident and The Turning Point. Because this is where the current storytelling falters. The narrative has failed to pick up momentum, something that is achieved through a successful Inciting Incident and Turning Point.

So, I want to make the theory palpable and apply the Three-Act-Structure – with focus on Act I and early Act II – to all three Seasons of the Dream SMP to see where Seasons 1 & 2 succeeded and Season 3 failed.

 Chapter 2: The Three-Act-Structure Applied

Despite being much less written out and planned and more focused on the roleplay-aspect, both Season 1 and Season 2 somehow stumbled into recreating the Three-Act-Structure pretty well (S2 had its problem, but on the whole, it was still generally discernible).

I’m not here to discuss why narrative conventions and tools of literary analysis are applicable to something as seemingly idiosyncratic as the Dream SMP, I will do that in a future video. For the purposes of this video, we will simply have to take it at face value that these tools are applicable.

Season 1, which was probably the most consistently and competently written out of the three seasons thus far, has a very clear major tension/conflict: Who gets to steer the fate of L’Manburg, whether that be through stewardship or dissolution. It ties deeply into the personal conflict of our protagonist Wilbur as well as the external threat as represented by our villain JSchlatt, the best character in the story.

And not just that, basically every character whether that be Tommy, Tubbo, Niki, Fundy, Dream or Technoblade is invested in seeing this major tension resolved.

All this is achieved through a wonderful inciting incident and turning point. The inciting incident, the personal conflict for our protagonists, is Wilbur calling a presidential election. He wants to solidify power; his personal conflict being gaining full control over L’Manburg – I will talk about it more in my Wilbur-video.

This leads to the Turning Point, which in this case is a very natural cause and effect: Wilbur loses the election his sense of self shattered and JSchlatt, best character, takes over L’Manburg declares himself Emperor and exiles Tommy and Wilbur. The protagonists are forced out of their Ordinary World and the dynamic of the server is changed forever. The Main Tension or Major Conflict has been fully established.

This has server-wide consequences that every character is impacted by. All the many personal conflict are now framed by this all-encompassing major conflict. Thus, everything feels like it’s building up towards the same climax. Whether that be Fundy’s personal conflict as a deep-undercover spy, Niki’s conflict as the resistance in Manburg, Quackity’s struggle for power under Schlatt or the threat of Schlatt trying to expand Manberg into Dream SMP territory.

This even applies to the most disconnected conflict in Act II: The War between Sapnap and Tommy. Because even here, Sapnap’s stated goal is to gather enough power to take over Manberg. Now, that the power dynamic has shifted once it has signalled to other antagonists that the power dynamic can shift once more. The Balance of the Ordinary World is disrupted.

And from the Pogtopia-side, this conflict serves as a great way to not only build up their team, but also as a mini-version of their major conflict. If they cannot defeat Sapnap, what chance do they stand against Big Bad Emperor Schlatt.

Season 2, in spite of all the problems that it has, also managed to pull off the inciting incident and turning point rather well. The Inciting Incident here being Tommy burning down George’s house – his intent being to gain some leverage to win his discs back – which then again lead very gracefully into the Turning Point: Tommy being exiled from L’Manburg.

Tommy’s personal conflict – regaining his discs – was folded into the major conflict: Breaking Dream’s grip over the SMP (and in effect creating a new power dynamic on the server).

Tommy’s exile led to Tubbo being pushed by Quackity to institute the Butcher Army – an antagonistic force intent on making L’Manberg the strongest nation on the server; in effect dethroning Dream. This would of course lead to Hog Hunt and Technoblade’s involvement; ultimately bringing a lot of momentum into the narrative.

Now, Season 2 doesn’t pull this off as graciously as Season 1: You will have noticed that both the Inciting Incident as well as the Turning Point are pretty exclusively focused on Tommy which leads to the major conflict revolving mostly around Tommy and the characters in his orbit – which is not ideal when dealing with an ever-expanding ensemble cast.

While Season 1’s Inciting Incident and Turning Point also had Wilbur as their centre point, they were open enough to allow for other characters such as Quackity, Sapnap and most crucially Schlatt to naturally integrate themselves into the narrative.

What also doesn’t help is that the Rising Action up until the Midpoint is almost exclusively focused on Tommy as I discussed in my Philza-video. There is dramatic and narrative momentum, but it comes at the expense of basically every other character or storyline. The Butcher Army and New L’Manburg are painfully underexplored.

But still, despite its flaws, Season 2 managed to get the ball rolling. So where did Season 3 go wrong?

The main problem that Season 3 has is that it presented us with a large number of potential inciting incidents, but no concrete turning point. We have a lot of personal conflicts, but are as of yet missing the big major tension or conflict that ties it all together; that gives the framework in which the personal conflicts of the characters can intersect and resolve.

I think just to showcase how scattershot Season 3’s storytelling is right now; I’ll have to list all the big plot points of the season as they happened:

1.    Tommy meets with the Egg and shows an immunity to it. The Egg orders the Eggpire to kill Tommy in order to proceed with their plan

2.    The prison gets into lockdown mode, while Tommy is visiting Dream

3.    Tommy gets killed by Dream

4.    Tommy gets resurrected by Dream

5.    Technoblade and Ranboo come into contact with the Egg

6.    Quackity comes into contact with the Egg

7.    The Syndicate meets up and checks out Snowchester

8.    Tubbo loses a nuke

9.    The Red Banquet

10.  Tommy breaks into the prison

11.  Wilbur gets resurrected

Now, quite a number of those could have worked as either inciting incidents or turning point with some narrowing the scope of the narrative more than other. The early points involving Tommy for instance would have pushed him again into the role protagonist akin to how it worked in Season 2, while others like the Syndicate, the Red Banquet or Wilbur’s resurrection would have established the respectively involved groups or characters as the drivers of the major tension.

But none of these avenues are taken. All these conflicts are still insular; their resolutions don’t build to anything.

Tommy’s resurrection – which in my opinion is the first plot point that could have been used as the Turning Point relatively easily – changes the course of the prison and Las Nevadas-storyline, but has little to no impact on the Eggpire, Syndicate or Nuke-storylines.

Similarly, Tubbo losing the nuke could have led to the major tension becoming every faction hunting for the missing nuke in order to fulfil their personal agendas. But again, no dice.

And this just keeps adding up and up. Each new plot point subconsciously leads the viewer to expect that this will be the one to establish a major, unifying tension for the season – and then nothing comes of it. Though the volume of “lore” is still relatively high, the narrative momentum that is needed in order to make the viewer invested in the storyline is diminished with every potential turning point that is ignored in favour of more set-up.

And this structural problem of Season 3 when compared to Seasons 1 and 2 is made the most apparent when looking at …

 Chapter 3: The Eggpire

Oh, my poor boys. Where did it all go wrong?

To give some context: The Eggpire or Crimson-storyline actually started in the middle of Season 2, where they managed the impossible: Establishing a storyline with some narrative momentum and impact outside of the major conflict.

So, how did they do that and do it successfully at that?

The first thing we need to understand is that the Season 2 Eggpire-storyline basically involved no one from the “principal cast”. As such, the story was not chained to the developments that were going on there – such as Exile, Hog Hunt, the Green Festival, etc. – and instead had more freedom to do their own stuff.

The Eggpire-storyline in Season 2 was for the most part self-contained. So much so, that people were viewing it not as a part of the on-going narrative, but rather in the vein of Tales from the SMP: A story that stands alone, the resolution of which would have no impact on the server as a whole.

And, to be fair, they could have gone that route. But the writer(s) behind the Eggpire-storyline decided to be more ambitious.

The Eggpire-storyline in Season 2 follows its own mini-version of the Three-Act-Structure, with BadBoyHalo serving as its protagonist. The big narrative movements coincide and are influenced with dramatic movement in his own personal conflict. He is the Wilbur of this storylines – the once good man (relatively speaking), who falls from Grace.

Now, the thing that makes the Eggpire-storyline in Season 2 quite brilliant is that they ultimately tied the resolution of their tension into the major conflict/tension of the Season 2.

Doomsday saw the Lowest Point of the main storyline of Season 2. With L’Manburg’s destruction and Dream’s future imprisonment, there was a huge power vacuum on the server – a power vacuum that BadBoyHalo, now fully under the control of the Egg, was ready to fill.

The climax of the Eggpire-storyline in Season 2 saw the rise of the Eggpire as they spread the seeds of the Crimson in the L’Manburg-crater, intent on taking over server – thus adding onto the dramatic tension that Doomsday already established, making the Lowest Point feel even more foreboding and successfully linking their erstwhile separate storyline to the main tension of the overall narrative. The villains for Season 3 seemed to be perfectly set-up.

And then Season 3 rolled around and they … bungled it completely.

Though the Eggpire eventually came into contact with almost every active character in Season 3 – such as Tommy, Tubbo, Ranboo, Technoblade and Quackity – they completely failed at driving the major conflict and establishing themselves as the main antagonistic force of the storyline the same way Schlatt and Dream had done in the Seasons prior.

The biggest missed opportunity in that regard is without a doubt the Red Banquet. Now, I talked in the past about how the Red Banquet failed just on its own – at least a specific aspect of it – but now we’ll have to talk about how the Red Banquet fails in the context of Season 3.

Because this was the moment that all the storylines could have been brought together. The Eggpire could have succeeded in their endeavour and established themselves as the most prominent force on the serve. This event would have impacted the server as a whole and thus the entire storyline.

Immediately we would have had a major conflict to drive all other storylines – such as Tommy’s storyline, Snowchester, the Syndicate, Kinoko Kingdom and Las Nevadas – to stop the Eggpire from fully taking over the server. All the character-specific conflicts could have then happened within the framing of this major tension.

Maybe Tubbo and the rest are hunting for the nuke, because they think it’s the only way to stop the Eggpire. Maybe the Eggpire wants to free Dream, because he could be of use for the Crimson. Tommy could get abducted by the Eggpire because he is some sort of chosen one or whatever and the onus would fall on the other characters to save him and stop the villains – so Tommy would become the damsel effectively.

Maybe they decide that the only way to defeat the Eggpire is to bring back Wilbur and that’s how that storyline gets integrated. Maybe the disparate forces disagree on that or other plot-points and there’s some infighting between them.

But still: All conflicts would be unified by this one major tension. The Red Banquet would have been the Turning Point to lead into Act II of Season 3, where all the problems would be viewed with the knowledge that the Eggpire and the Crimson was looming in the distance.

Alas, we did not get that. Instead, the Red Banquet turned out to be just another plot point in a long line of plot points that promises more in the future. Smaller personal conflicts are resolved just within the limited scope of their individual storyline and a major tension is yet to be seen.

When Bad says that there’s just one more Egg-stream planned, I hope he’s either misleading or not being clear enough on what he means. Because if this was it; if the Eggpire-storyline just kinda dies here – too connected to all other storyline to be seen as standalone and yet too separated to be enjoyed in the context of Season 3 as a whole – then it would be a worse writing choice than Doomsday.

 Epilogue: How the Prison Break can bring it all together

To bring it all back to the sentence I opened this video with: I hope Technoblade succeeds in breaking Dream out of prison, because this could finally be the Turning Point that introduces a major tension to the narrative of Season 3.

I hoped that Wilbur’s resurrection would fill that role, but disappointingly that plot point is again relegated to driving the tension of a few chosen storylines instead of providing a major tension for all players involved.

And with five months into Season 3, this Act 1 has gone on for far too long! For comparison, the entire written storyline of Season 1 encompassed 4 months. Season 2 took place in only 2 months. Season 3 has already exceeded both their runtimes and still seems to have yet to truly start.

Whether Technoblade breaks Dream out or Quackity succeeds in trapping Technoblade in Pandora’s Vault – there needs to be a turning point somewhere in sight.

Because my biggest fear is that we’re already past it. That the Eggpire-storyline will just fizzle out and that some other plot point will retroactively reveal itself as the turning point – because that would mean that Season 3 would have a horrifically unfocused, saggy and just generally unengaging second act. And that would be a shame.

Thank you so much for watching. Once again, please feel free to like, comment and subscribe. The links to my social media are all in the description down below. I have a bunch of stuff planned for the future including a very long video on Wilbur as well as two videos that have nothing to do with Dream SMP.

Until then, please be excite.

[thisizaraisu]

Update on my attempt to watch 18 seasonal anime (Four reviews below)

I got so damn close... but eventually reality set in. And by reality, I mean the seven consecutive days that I had to work before Thanksgiving that put me way behind on seasonal anime.

For the sake of my own sanity, I elected to drop four anime that didn’t strike as strong a chord with me as others did. I’m still watching 14 so the Fall 2020 Superlatives are going to have plenty of competition in spite of this, but I wanted to talk about the four I decided to drop, why I decided to drop them, and whether or not I think I’ll give them another look when I get more free time. We’ll start with the ones that were easier to drop and go from there.

Kuma Kuma Kuma Bear

Barring the possibility of a terrible ending to a good series, Kuma Kuma Kuma Bear is currently my top pick for the biggest disappointment of Fall 2020. As someone who absolutely adored BOFURI: I Don’t Want to Get Hurt, So I’ll Max Out My Defense, I was really hoping that Kuma Kuma Kuma Bear would follow suit. The idea of a protagonist using a strange weapon in strange ways to absolutely dominate their game is a concept that BOFURI executed incredibly well, and it was good for a lot of laughs. Along with Hamefura, it’s one of the reasons that Silver Link. is my favorite animation studio right now.

Sadly, Kuma Kuma Kuma Bear is no BOFURI, despite the main weapon being even zanier and overpowered than Maple’s Great Shield. In spite of its promising premise, Kuma Kuma Kuma Bear just takes itself WAY too seriously. It tries to be emotional far more often than funny, and emotional beats just can’t be properly executed when the main character is literally WEARING a deus ex machina. Yuna literally CURES CANCER in one episode, at that point there is no emotion that you can hope to extract because the bear suit is capable of WHATEVER SHE WANTS. It’s a show that plays itself way too straight when it should really be going for humor. I had this on my watch list as soon as it was announced, hoping it would be a spiritual successor to a show that I love, and I am very disappointed in this series.

Iwa Kakeru: Sport Climbing Girls

Conversely, Sport Climbing Girls wasn’t a disappointment, but I think it provides a good foundation for my point that sport anime really shouldn’t be seasonal. While it didn’t suffer from Tamayomi Syndrome (the animation quality didn’t drop dramatically), it did stumble into a handful of pitfalls, namely trying to introduce too many characters while not providing enough of an in-depth look at our main four. I do have to give this show credit for a few things, however. First off, tackling a sport that we really haven’t seen in an anime yet. I always love seeing something new, and it did have my attention for quite a bit. Additionally, there’s some surprisingly good melodrama that this show pulls off. And of course, hiring Dio’s voice actor is always a bonus. I’m not 100% sure if I’ll get around to finishing this show but I’d definitely do so before going back to Kuma Kuma Kuma Bear.

Ikebukuro West Gate Park

IWGP just didn’t pull off Villain of the Week as well as Moriarty did. I don’t think this is a bad series, but it didn’t take long for aspects of it to feel bland. I really would have preferred more character analysis from this series. I never felt like I knew enough about the characters in this show. I know Makoto has a strong sense of justice and he lives with his mom, but that’s really kinda it. What drives him to independently take down criminals? What happened to his dad? None of these questions and more will be answered within the first 8 episodes of Ikebukuro West Gate Park.

What are the good aspects of this show? Well, the overarching plot did start to get me invested, it was just too little too late for my purposes and I wish the main conflict had been started much earlier. There are some powerful episodes in here too, they’re just balanced out by the more mediocre ones. The music can be phenomenal at stages, ESPECIALLY the OP and ED. Needleknot is a song I’ll listen to in my free time, even if I think this show is pretty mid. Takashi is pretty great too, and he’s definitely a character I wish we got to know more of. As it stands, this MIGHT be a show I go back to, but with my watch list so full of things to watch already it’s definitely a toss-up.

Our Last Crusade

This was the toughest show to drop... and the fact that I’m saying that surprises me on multiple levels.

One of the main reasons I even gave this show a look is because Silver Link. animated it. The thing about Silver Link. is they’re not my favorite studio because of their animation style, it’s because of the source material that they choose to adapt. 99% of the time they absolutely NAIL their choices. Hamefura, BOFURI, Non Non Biyori, Misfit of Demon King Academy, they have such a criminally underrated library, and I was really hoping that in spite of its premise not exactly gelling with me right out of the gate, it would be another case of Silver Link. hitting me with something I love more than I should. Hamefura IS my favorite anime of all time, after all.

What I got from Our Last Crusade wasn’t the kind of show I wanted to get from Silver Link... until episode 7, that was genuinely fantastic. Most of the show leading up to that point, however, was as mid as can be. And the problem wasn’t the concept or the characters or anything of that nature, it was just how PREDICTABLE everything was. I’ve never seen a series where I was able to predict every plot beat before it happened. Oh wow, Iska’s in the neutral city, I wonder if he’s going to run into someone in particular. Oh wow, Iska’s in the neutral city again, I wonder if he’s gonna run into the exact same person.

The show essentially boils down to an anime version of Romeo and Juliet, and I really did want to enjoy it. I enjoyed it in STAGES, Mismis has a subplot that actually got me briefly emotional before they switched to a shot of her massive anime thighs and I just had to stand up and applaud right then and there. For the most part, however, the sheer predictability keeps a lot of the moments they’re going for from landing. Episode 7, however, does not suffer from this problem whatsoever. I actually ended up being surprised by a good deal of events in that episode, and if that’s what the predictable buildup has been leading to then this is definitely the show I’m most likely to go back and re-visit. I just wish the combat animation was more flashy, I wish the general served as more of an active threat given his intimidating premise, I wish most plot beats weren’t easy to see from a mile away, I wish Mismis’ thighs had more screentime, etc. It’s just the little things that pile up and keep the show from being anything other than average... so far.

[turtlemotion3]

Melanotan 1 Shot Kit.

Melanotan 2 Shot Buyer Dies In Tanning Salon.

Content

You're Reviewing: Melanotan 2 Injection Set.

Obtain The Perfect Sunlight.

Are Melanin Injections Legal In The Uk?

Is It Safe To Utilize Phony Tans During Pregnancy? Guy Exposes He's Addicted To Prohibited Tanning Shots:' I 'd Rather Be Dead Than Light'. The X

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You're Assessing: Melanotan 2 Injection Set.

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Get The Best Sunlight.

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[thliahls]

b-b-b-back once again , cldn’t wait can’t be tamed .. as with all my intros .. tis a doozy so feel free to mssg me for a tl;dr if we feelin lazy i will totally understand , or scroll to the wc’s i tried to think of as many as possible bc i wanna plot wit every1 )): !! anyhaps like this n i will come force my heathen of a gurl on u !

⌠ GRACIE ABRAMS, 20, CISFEMALE, SHE/HER ⌡ welcome back to gallagher academy, THALIA HALL! according to their records, they’re a FIRST year, specializing in AWARENESS TRAINING, BREATH CONTROL, HAND TO HAND COMBAT + THREAT ELIMINATION and they DID go to a spy prep high school. when i see them walking around in the halls, i usually see a flash of dirt under a meticulously painted manicure, the shrill ring of her phone and poorly treated books creased at the spine. when it’s the (scorpio)’s birthday on 11/02/2000, they always request FISH FINGERS from the school’s chefs. looks like they’re well on their way to graduation. 

biography / pinterest

was born in the states but dad and her moved back to england the year she was born, which was also the year he graduated blackthorne. his mother was ‘never in the picture’ which has left her imagination to go down several paths, discontent with all of them. unfortunately daddy dearest crafts a space where she’d never dare ask ! she has a bit of an obsession with the blackthorne graduation ritual because of it .

was immediately placed under the care of two retired spies, sort of a foster care system within the spy community. dad still visited whenever he wasn’t working and still technically had full custody over her. up until she went to prep school, led a very sheltered life. homeschooled by them, but they were fairly lax. her dad expected a certain amount of training to be done, but her and her foster siblings usually mucked about a fair bit. her training would always be done in the form of games which she discovered early on that she loved to win, it made her fiercely competitive.

was very spoiled by them, grew up in a huge country estate and excelled in her home school classes without trying, which made her extremely entitled. she’d often wrestle with her siblings in the garden , and bring them to tears . biting them, pulling their hair, slapping them around . it would earn her a slap on the wrist , but it was never anything a sorry couldn’t fix . spends her free time laying in the grass reading , and learning the romance languages and was raised speaking cantonese bc that’s her foster parents native language . more invested in the sociology of linguistics and how it can be used to assert and diminish power but only cares for this in a self-serving way .

spy prep rolls around and it’s very exciting ! as predicted ( by herself lmao ) she does well, without even having to try. socially , she drifts through groups , picking up on cues on how to interact , what works well and what doesn’t . doesn’t find anyone particularly interesting and would much rather be reading but by not having any sort of allegiance to one particular group , it ends with her being very well-liked . the top marks is unsurprising, further fuelled by some amusing competition , finding that her desire to earn good grades comes more from wanting to spite others than actually wanting to achieve good grades . finals roll around and she gets the highest grade in her year and in tandem with being well liked, earns her place as valedictorian . she’s very proud of herself, not for earning valedictorian, but for besting aylin . 

in the months prior , on a field trip she meets a boy and for the first time in ever , exudes big dumb energy gets his number , starts texting him , starts sneaking off campus to meet him ... he’s a total casanova , a big romantic and exactly like the protags in the romance novels she reads . it’s a big prep school no-no but as long as no one finds out it’s fine ! then walks in aylin, and destroys her whole career by reporting her ( she doesn’t know for sure it was her , but has her suspicions since their rivalry had run throughout the entirety of prep school ). she’s kicked out , denied graduation , valedictorian and is humiliated . she calls her civilian boyfriend the night of , but his line’s already been disconnected , presumably threatened / beat up by her lovely dad .

her father is livid , but is able to use his connections to get her a place at another , less prestigious prep school and negotiates with the school to take her to and fro every day , like he’s picking her up from daycare . he stops working for a full year to do this , and expects her to feel indebted to him . the monotony of repeating the year makes her irritable, made worse by the snickers she constantly hears in the hallways . but she has gallagher to look forward to , knowing she’ll still be going there because continuing tradition is important to her father , who also decided her majors for her and had a big argument with him when she asked if she could take linguistics ! he makes her call him every single night at 6p.m. if she misses a call , he contacts the school . she hates him . 

personality 

passive aggressive emphasis on the aggressive : is always withholding judgement, but inevitably always lets a comment slip. think, ‘   you’re so confident to wear whatever you want to,   ’ or, ‘   wow ! that colour’s so bright i almost need sunglasses !   ’ petty as hell  in all respects physically too , spots a bruise on your arm ? you bet she’s gonna press it and ask if that hurts, then say sorry when you yelp . 

hypocritical : detests people who don’t try but doesn’t try herself and justifies it by getting really good grades . believes there’s no point sleeping with someone unless you love them , then will drunkenly hook up with someone that very same night . 

hope less romantic : she has no hope for others but remains a romantic . thinks people have given up on courting people and wooing them . expects flowers at her door , good morning texts and candlelit dinners . leaves secret admirer notes under people's door to people she thinks are cute and thinks she might have a crush on in the future , quite creepy but at least she doesn't use magazine clippings anymore ! 

spiteful : life is a game and she wants to win it ! makes everything into a competition , even unconsciously . goes up to the adjacent treadmill and makes the speed and incline several points higher than the person next to her . painting your nails with her ? she’ll make sure hers looks better and point out that you didn’t coat the ends of your nails . board game night with her is fun for no one but her , i’m so sorry if she ever ropes you into one !

bookworm : her disgustingly high standards about love come from her singular past relationships and books . read one too many jane austen’s and now she’s crazy

loyal : her loyalty is hard to earn , but once you’ve got it , you’ve got it .

*think the arrogant exterior of jesse eisenberg as zucc in the social network with emaline addario ( everything sucks ) type dramatics every so often to keep it spicy !

wanted connections

toxic friendship ! a slow burn relationship of passive-aggressiveness and co-dependency, one day they stop taking her shit or say they’re going to but always end up in each other’s company at the end of the day . or maybe one day they don’t come back to her and thalia is forced to admit she may have been too harsh .

hook-ups she has when drunk ! which she will only have when drunk , to follow her unspecified , no rights , belief system . will pretend like she does not know you the next day . oh to be a romantic , but a scorpio . a tough life .

people she has crushes on ! and leaves handwritten poetry under their door or in their notebooks , absolutely humiliating that she acts this way ! bonus points for a note that’s left under the door and the wrong person reads it . 

sparring buddies but make it feral ! no rules sorta deal, out in the woods, scratches from twigs, bloodied rocks, anything to let some of her pent up aggression out . they can go swimming after : )

daddy issues gang ! someone hears her on the phone in the hallway , inquires , proceeds to talk about how much they hate their fathers . thalia tells them how she’s going to kill him one day <3 alternatively , her father may have been the cause or implicated in the death of your chara’s loved one .

roommates ! self-explanatory , but she probably dislikes them and is unfairly harsh on them . sets rules but lets herself be exempt from them stuff like that x also for berlin she requested a room by herself lmao n deluded herself into thinking she wld be accommodated , thus i’m going to leave whoever she rooms with up to fate and she will hate it regardless of whoever she gets roomed with !

someone who hates aylin as much as she does ! yes this is deserving of a whole connection , thalia would probably die for this person . alternatively , aylin’s friends who she hates as a byproduct of hating aylin or tries to get them to hate aylin .

rivals ! because it’s the only thing that motivates her to do well in school .  

encryption major ! who helps her find out about her dad’s past , and present . what he’s done and what he continues to do . also a way for her to maybe switch one of her majors to linguistics and hacking a report that says she’s still in her predetermined majors .

take a chill pill ! someone who gets her to relax , makes her watch reality television which she relentlessly criticizes , but this person won’t give up trying to make her less of an awful human bean .

anything else ! i am , as the kids say , down to clown .

[ijustwant2write]

Obsessed-Ivar Ragnarsson x Reader

(GIF credit to @whenimaunicorn)

Summary: requested by @walkxthexmoon: ‘Hey love:) could you maybe write an imagine with ivar being obsessed with you and fighting every man that comes near you off?! I would understand if you don’t want to write it. I hope you have an amazing day:)’

Characters: Ivar Ragnarsson x Reader

Meanings: (Y/N)=Your name

Warnings: jealousy, obsessiveness, mention of violence and injury, mention of weapons, fluff

*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*

Strolling through the town used to be a lovely way to spend my afternoons. Sometimes I would stop by each stall to chat to the people of Kattegat, both wanting to keep up my appearance and to connect with the people; my family were wealthy, we were one of the well known names amongst the people, and thankfully, all for good reason. I may have not been royalty, but I was the closest thing to it compared to everyone else. However, there had been jokes and rumours that that may change.

Although we were supposed to stay close with the royals, I had only had a full conversation with the family twice, once when I was much younger and the other only a year ago. I was forced to speak with the princes on both occasions, but since then I had only seen them in passing. However, they were now back from a raiding, all coming back looking like real men. Everyone noticed it, and apparently one of them had noticed me.

Ivar, easily the scariest of them all, had suddenly taken an interest in me. When they returned, a huge feast had taken place and of course everyone had attended. This brought the third time I had spoken to the Ragnarsson’s, Ivar the most surprisingly. I had enjoyed the conversation, but what came after startled me slightly. Men somehow stopped speaking to me, even getting within standing distance. It had confused me at first. I was a friend to all, and (I hoped) that I never gave off the wrong impression to anyone; however, it all seemed to occur after that particular feast.

“(Y/N)! I have not seen you out here for weeks!” a merchant called out to me as I bravely walked through the market.

“Well, I think we all know why.” I sighed.

“I’m not going to say anything.”

“No, that’s probably a good idea.”

“Should you not take it as a form of flattery?” he asked as he rearranged his items.

“Not when he’s fighting any man that comes near me. I worry for those poor souls.”

“Have you spoken to him about this?”

“I tried once. He didn’t take it very well.”

As he was about to speak, his eyes locked onto something to the right of us. I followed his gaze, slightly upset when I saw it was Ivar. Sadly smiling at the merchant, I quickly moved away from his stall, hoping that Ivar would not see it in the wrong way. I knew he had spotted me, so there was no point in trying to leave. I waited patiently for him to walk to me, using his crutches like he always did now instead of crawling through the mud.

I bowed my head to him.“Ivar, it’s nice to see you today.”

“He was not bothering you was he?”

I tried not to roll my eyes.“No, it was just a friendly chat.”

“Good, good.” we walked beside each other, and I could see how people moved out of the way for us.“You have not been here for a while, I missed your presence.”

“That’s very sweet of you.”

He smiled to himself, seeming proud of his compliment."So why is it that I have not seen you?"

"Ivar," I was about to take a risk with my words,"you know why?"

He darkly chuckled."Because I protect you from men who lust after you?"

"Because you scare away men who come near me."

He stopped walking, turning his head towards me."They shouldn't be looking at you the way they do."

"But not all of them do Ivar! It tarnishes my reputation, something which I must uphold for the sake of my family."

“How can you say that? I am looking after you.”

“I understand your view on this, but men like that merchant back there are simply having a conversation with me. Though it seems nowadays that no one will speak to me.”

“I speak to you.”

I groaned, shaking my head at him. He knew he was winding me up and he was enjoying it. I wasn’t going to get through to him any time soon, and as frustrating as that was I just had to give up before things got messy.

“All I’m saying is I would prefer it if you weren’t so....so-”

“Hm?” He waited for the word, an eyebrow raised at me.

“So intimidating.”

“Intimidating? That’s not the word I would use.” he started to walk again before I stopped him, my hand on his upper arm.

“Ivar, please, I’m practically begging you! Just don’t hurt anyone.”

His eyes were on my hand, and he snarled before looking away.“I will try my best.”

He then walked away, I watched as practically no one looked at him. I felt slightly bad for him, I knew his actions weren’t supposed to upset me, but there was no way he could continue with this behaviour. Men would suddenly waltz the streets with bruises and deep cuts, even broken noses; everyone knew what happened to them, especially since they would have been seen with me just the day before.

*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*

Just beyond the edge of the forest, I stood with my bow and arrow, practicing a few shots during the peaceful afternoon. It was a beautiful day; the weather was perfect, the atmosphere was calm and no one had disturbed me...yet.

I heard someone approaching from behind me. Their steps were too casual for them to be a threat. Looking over my shoulder (with an arrow prepared just in case), I felt slight relief when I saw Arne (a close neighbour) approaching, his own weapons strapped to him. He seemed to be in a happy mood, smiling at me from far away.

“Arne, what brings you here?” I asked.

“The same as you.” he finally reached me, setting down his axe.“Getting some practice in whilst the weather is on our side.”

“Shouldn’t you be helping your family on the farm?” I found myself looking around, heart beating quickly at the thought of Ivar showing up.

“Well, I should, but this is more important.” Arne caught onto my paranoia and chuckled.“Relax, he’s not here.”

“You don’t know that.”

“I’m a tracker, a skilled fighter, I know when someone’s following me.”

“Still, we must be careful.”

“He doesn’t have claim on you, not yet anyway.”

“Yet? What’s that supposed to mean?”

He picked up his axe, throwing it up and down with one hand.“I hardly doubt he’s going to put this much effort into keeping men away from you and not have you as a wife.”

“What if I say no?”

“You won’t.”

I was too shocked to reply.

“One, your family will agree straight away, and two, I’ve seen the way you look at him. You may hate his little game he plays but whenever you’re with him, you look much too invested.”

“Well....I mean, he’s an interesting person.”

“Interesting, that’s one way to look at him.”

“Arne.”

“I think you two would look good together. He’s calmer with you, everyone seems more relaxed when you’re around him.”

I thought about his words, the weight of them suddenly dawning on me.

His tone was softer.“I don’t mean any offence-”

“Perhaps it would be better to just keep your mouth shut.” Ivar’s voice rang out, startling us both. 

Behind us was Ivar, how he had sneaked up on us was a mystery. My heart beat was racing, hoping he heard none of the conversation. Arne didn’t deserve any punishment, though neither did any other man. Instinctively I moved towards Ivar, almost like a barricade between him and Arne. All of us had weapons, the two men both bearing axes, both as equally skilled as each other. Ivar’s glare didn’t falter as I spoke.

“Ivar, please we spoke of this.” I quietly reminded him.

“Yes, but he has been running his mouth, spiteful words escaping them!” Ivar snapped.

“No, he hasn’t. He was...just voicing his concern.”

“Concern? Why should he be concerned? I would never harm you.”

“I know, I know. Look, nothing has been done here. Don’t hurt him.”

“I said I would try-”

“Well try harder!”

His eyes widened at my outburst.

“Ivar, if you don’t stop this nonsense then I will never speak to you again. You think this will make me fall for you, that I’ll somehow be flattered by what you’re doing. Well it’s not. I don’t want to be the reason as to why you end up killing an innocent man.”

I too was surprised by my rant, my raised voice making our surroundings seem quieter as I stopped. Ivar and I held an intense stare at each other, neither one of us backing down. He huffed, a deep frown set on his face as he slumped away, his crutches digging into the ground harshly to release some anger. Oh gods, what had I done? I had pissed off the most reckless prince of Kattegat, a man who never held back or thought about the consequences before taking action. Arne and I watched Ivar, only relaxing when he disappeared from sight.

“What have I done?” I whined, wondering if I was taking a risk by going after him.

“He won’t do anything to you.” Arne tried to console me.

“You don’t know that. Ivar isn’t stable, you’ve seen what he’s capable of.”

“(Y/N), go home. Don’t worry, he’s just pissed off because you stood up to him.”

“What about you? Should you walk with me? In case he’s still there or-”

“(Y/N), I’ll be fine. I can protect myself.

My body was filled with tension, my mind swirling with horrible things that Ivar could do to me or anyone else. I didn’t mean to anger him, I just didn’t want a friend hurt. My family noticed, and when I explained they too tried to calm me down. As we sat down for dinner, trying to take my mind off the events of the day, there was a knock at the door. Our thrall immediately went to answer, though we heard a deep voice commanding her to fetch me. My father and I went to the door, he demanded to know why I was needed at such a late hour.

“Prince Ivar wishes to see your daughter.” the guard explained.

We shared a glance, and my father knew I had to go. Although I believed that Ivar wasn’t going to hurt me, there was a doubt in my mind. I didn’t let that show, reassuring my family that I would be safe. As the thrall wrapped a cloak around me, I silently prayed to the Gods, hoping that the worst he would do is viciously yell at me. The guards walked either side of me, holding torches to guide us through the dark. Thankfully no one was out to see this happening, avoiding the gossip that could circle around town. They made sure I walked quickly, almost shoving me into the Great Hall where Ivar sat on one of the thrones. No one spoke as we walked to him, his hand waving dismissively at the guards, leaving us alone.

“I am sorry to drag you away from your home so late. Have you eaten?” he asked casually.

I nodded.“No need to apologise my prince. And yes, I have, thank you.”

“Good, I would not want to make a bad impression on your family.”

Why was he so calm?

“Of course you haven’t. If you don’t mind me asking, why am I here so late?”

He looked like he was struggling to keep eye contact with me, his lips slightly pursed before speaking.“I wanted to apologise for earlier.”

What?

An apology from Ivar?

“I got angry at you and your friend for no reason, and when I saw how upset you were I regretted it.”

I wasn’t sure how to reply to that.

“Why aren’t you saying anything?”

“Sorry, thank you for the apology. I...I’m just-”

“Shocked? I do have a heart (Y/N).”

“I know you do.”

He sighed.“Come closer.”

I took a few steps forward, standing at the bottom of the small stairs in front of the thrones. He reached his hand out to me, gesturing for me to come even closer. I held onto it, hitching up my dress to climb the stairs. Now stood directly in front of him, his hand still in mine, my heart was beating fast once again, but not because I was scared.

“You must realise, I was only ever loved by one woman, my mother. And although she doted on me, I have never known how to reciprocate that love. I only know of violence and anger. That’s why I have been fighting off those men, to somehow show that...that I care for you, that no other man should have you.”

“Ivar, I...I’m also sorry for shouting at you. I didn’t realise that this was how you were showing affection.”

“I understand if you want to run away from me right this second, never speak to me again.” he turned angry, his hand slipping from mine until I snatched it back. 

“Ivar, there has been times where...where I was truly thankful for your actions. There has been some men which were too close for my liking or thought they could do whatever they wanted to me. But this doesn’t justify what you did to others.”

“What are you saying?”

“I’m saying that I just need to understand a little better. Why did you fight them off?”

“Have you seen me? I’m a cripple! They already have the upper hand. They’re also not monsters, they aren’t feared by everyone they know.”

“I don’t fear you.”

“You should.”

“Stop feeling sorry for yourself! You are so much more than you think you are. Do you really think I would be here right now, that I would take even a slight interest in you if I thought those things?”

His sad eyes looked deep into mine.“Do you really mean those things?”

“Of course. I’m not condoning your behaviour, but what I’m suggesting is that we start over. Do this properly.”

“Do what?”

“C-courting? Is that what you wanted?”

He smiled, a breathy laugh escaping his lips.“That’s all I wanted since the day I first met you.”

He gently kissed the back of my hand, and I almost melted at the sight. He was dangerous, unpredictable and terrifying; though there was a side to him that no one saw. He wanted to express his love, his happier side, but didn’t know how to do so, seeing as he wasn’t brought up the happiest of homes. But I was going to change that, make him into a loved leader when it was his time, change the perspective of him from his people. It would take some time, though I was sure that this was the first step of many.

[tisthenightofthewitch]

THE NEXT CHAPTER: TOBIAS FORGE AND THE FUTURE OF GHOST

Their Kerrang! Award-winning fourth album Prequelle took Ghost from cult concern to global superstars. But the arena-filling congregation of fans is growing restless for clues as to what’s next for Cardinal Copia, Papa Nihil and the ministry. Let Tobias Forge, then, take you behind the mask and into the making of – and future plans for – a band like no other…

The WaMu Theater, Thursday 19 September. Last night this venue – attached to the side of CenturyLink Field, the home of the Seattle Seahawks NFL team – played host to the ‘Groover from Vancouver’ himself, Bryan Adams. Tomorrow it’s the turn of the Pacific Northwest city’s beloved sons, grunge legends Alice In Chains, for their last show in support of their sixth album, Rainier Fog. Tonight, though, Seattle gets the latest ritual on Ghost’s extensive Ultimate Tour Named Death.

Despite this morbid moniker, the scene inside the building is one of lively activity, with techs rushing around to finish the show’s elaborate staging. The house lights illuminate the stained glass window backdrop, while the seating, flat on the floor and sweeping upwards towards the back, furthers the illusion we’re in a vast church. Just then, Tobias Forge, the man whose job it is to address tonight’s 5,000-strong congregation appears. Kerrang! doesn’t notice him at first given the ninja-like silence of his approach, but there’s an intensity to his presence in these make-or-break moments of preparation.

“I’m interested in tour production, so I get to know a lot of these things,” he offers matter-of-factly. “I’m sure I only get to know about 40 per cent of it, but I notice if things aren’t in place.”

As a nine-year-old child, Tobias used to watch the documentary 25x5: The Continuing Adventures Of The Rolling Stones on repeat. The film charts the rock legends’ genesis in 1962 and their steep, heady ascent to becoming the biggest band in the world, circa their 1989 album Steel Wheels. Tobias considers their subsequent Bridges To Babylon Tour (1997-1998), which made more than $274 million and became the second-highest grosser of all time, to be the greatest ever piece of rock staging, and he was evidently taking notes even then. As a result of the level of professionalism he aspires to, you get the distinct impression he’s not a man who suffers fools gladly in this setting – an idea he doesn’t go to great pains to dispel.

“I want to know who’s in the shit today,” he explains. “Who has been put in the situation where his or her job is compromised, because I don’t want to start yelling if it’s a case of, ‘Oh my truck didn’t arrive in time today,’ because then I’ll know what the problem is. If you want to be a good boss, it’s very important you keep things on your radar.

“I’ve definitely got into trouble over the years by being too nice to people and giving them too much slack,” he continues, surveying the operation. “When you do that it’s like with dogs: if you don’t tell them what the rules are, they start making up their own. That sounds horrible, but there are 40 people on this tour, so there has to be a line and a curriculum. I’m adamant about getting my vision through, especially now we’re in this transitional phase between theatres and arenas.”

This increase in scale reflects the continued upswing in Ghost’s popularity, which has seen them go from misunderstood cult band to metal superstar status in the space of less than a decade. Despite this success, Tobias clearly isn’t taking anything for granted. Ghost haven’t played Seattle for three years, but this time around they’re doing two shows in Washington State, the other being the one they played at the Toyota Center in Kennewick two days ago, which has a capacity of 6,000 – almost eight per cent of the city’s 80,000 population.

Tobias may or may not be referring to that show when he discusses his unbridled joy at recently playing in an unnamed city that doesn’t get a lot of large-scale entertainment coming through town, save for appearances from KISS, singer-songwriter Pat Benatar and a touring production of the musical Wicked in recent years.

“None of us had ever heard of this place, and I’m pretty good at geography,” he explains. “But I loved being the singular moment somewhere, instead of the seventh show they’d had there on that particular week.”

And while Tobias describes the resulting night as “phenomenal”, earlier in the day there was an “unforeseen curveball” when the company who were meant to be selling merch at the show pulled out at the last minute, citing Ghost’s satanic image for their decision. This was, of course, a throwback to earlier shows, such as one in the Texan city of Odessa in 2018, when a minister attempted to dissuade people from attending because of the band’s threat to the morals of good God-fearing people. Unsurprisingly, this outburst resulted in an increase in ticket sales.

Despite this more recent – and, these days, more unusual – blip, Tobias’ desire to cover as much ground as possible on tour this time around is inspired by his heroes in Iron Maiden and Metallica, who have long provided him with the blueprints for achieving and navigating monumental success. In this case, the lesson he’s putting into practice is that every location Ghost visit, without exception, should be treated the same.

“The most important thing to me on this tour is that we bring the same production to everyone,” he says. “They all get the full-fucking-monty, whether they’re in Sioux Falls [South Dakota] or New York.”

The walls backstage at the WaMu Theater are lined with Seahawks jerseys, personalised with the names of acts that have performed here, including The 1975, Bastille and Nas, and the rockier contingent featuring twenty one pilots, Halestorm and Dropkick Murphys. Various rooms lead off from these labyrinthine corridors, providing sizeable production offices for the band’s tour management and crew, all of who wear dapper black shirts, trousers and braces affixed with silver broaches of Ghost’s upside down cross insignia. They affectionately address Cardinal Copia as ‘Cardi C’ when he appears later for a fan meet-and-greet. Here, too, are the dressing rooms for the headliners and the opening act for this tour, San Antonio rockers Nothing More.

On all of the doors is a distinct A4 page, the day sheet for this show, which not only details what’s happening, where and when, but also includes a different tongue-in-cheek quote for the occasion. Today, for example, in recognition of the touring party travelling overnight to Vancouver for tomorrow’s show at the city’s Pacific Coliseum, we get this gem courtesy of Britney Spears: ‘The cool thing about being famous is travelling. I have always wanted to travel across seas, like to Canada and stuff.’

Tobias, of course, has actually travelled over oceans to be here. Nowadays he lives in Stockholm, the capital of his native Sweden, with his wife and their 11-year-old twins, but he was born in Linköping, the country’s seventh largest city, where the steeple of its 13th century cathedral dominated the skyline. That’s not what the young Tobias was fixating on, though. Instead, aged five, when he already knew he wanted to transform into another person, he’d stand outside his childhood home and gaze down the street. The sun always seemed to be hovering between the buildings at the end, like a fixed but intangible hand beckoning him to get on a plane and go somewhere else and be someone else.

“The days and options seemed limitless,” he recalls today. “For some reason I always thought of the world as being there for the taking, even though I didn’t have any access to that world.”

In spite of this, he felt a deep affinity with his heroes, like the Rolling Stones and Queen, who also came from places you didn’t automatically associate with being breeding grounds for rock gods.

“I felt similar to them, even if they grew up in Dartford [Rolling Stones] or an island off the coast of Africa [Zanzibar, the birthplace of Freddie Mercury]. I, too, felt out of touch with my surroundings, and knew I had a higher calling.”

Twenty-three years later, in 2009, Tobias realised he hadn’t made much headway in heeding this call. He’d been in bands from a young age, from death metallers Repugnant to alt-rockers Magna Carta Cartel. The latter featured Martin Persner and Simon Söderberg, who’d later appear as Nameless Ghouls in the first incarnation of Ghost. Söderberg, along with some other ex-ghouls, is now embroiled in an on-going lawsuit with Tobias over what they suggest are the rightful shares of profits they’re owed from their time in the band. Tobias doesn’t volunteer any information on this topic today, which is perhaps understandable given the considerable column inches already dedicated to it.

Regardless, none of those early bands provided Tobias with the success he needed to, say, quit the day job. He had then been working in a call centre, aiding people having trouble with their mobile phones. Despite spending his childhood endlessly sketching elaborate stage designs and lighting rigs, he still has little interest in technology, particularly mobile phones. Back in 2009 his personal life was happy and satisfying, having welcomed children with his then-girlfriend – now wife – though this potent reminder of the finite time we have drew his attention to the area of his life he recognised as falling short.

“I had an epiphany,” he explains, raising his hands as if sizing up an imaginary canvas. “I found myself very far from the path, so decided in the limited time I have to invest everything in the one thing out of all my [professional] options I believed most in, which was Ghost. I understood wholeheartedly what it was, the music and the image, and felt I could do it without my vanity coming in, because I didn’t like how I looked in pictures or the sound of my own voice. But this would be fiction, so that was fucking cool. So I took all of my eggs and put them in one basket and was back on track. For the first time in my fucking life I was really focused.”

For evidence of the dividends this paid, you need only look at the fact that just a year later, with the release of their 2010 debut album Opus Eponymous, Ghost exploded on to the scene, taking the first step to becoming metal’s hottest new hope.

Further proof of this focus comes today from interviewing Tobias somewhere there’s a screen showing news channel CNN. We’re in the band’s pre-show warm-up space, which is decked out with guitars, keyboards and an electric drum kit he removes the stool from to sit in the centre of the room. He admits if he were in a hotel room now, he could easily watch CNN for 24 hours straight. He doesn’t so much as turn his head to look at it now, though, giving his full attention to the interview at hand.

Even at 38, an age he says his kids consider “as old as shit”, he remains remarkably boyish looking. His dark and piercing eyes, however, belong to an older soul – and it may be Kerrang!’s imagination – but they appear to moisten at several points during this hour-long chat, particularly when connecting the dots between his past ambition and what he’s achieved today.

“I’m trying to recreate a lot of things that aren’t necessarily real,” he says mysteriously. “In my head they’re real, and I’ve been given this fantastic carte blanche where I don’t have to sit in a fucking call centre anymore and am applauded for getting to be someone else. It’s perfect for someone like me who has a fundamental problem with functioning normally in society. If it wasn’t for the fact I was doing this, I would be completely useless.”

When Ghost signed with their American record label, their mythology wasn’t the deep well of fascination it is today. In fact, there was nothing to it at all. They had a unique aesthetic and a sound that didn’t necessarily go with that look, something that would wrong-foot new listeners in the early days, but Tobias didn’t have an answer to why Ghost were the way they were.

“They said the music was great but asked, ‘What’s the story? What’s the biography?’” recalls Tobias. “I said there was no biography because there was no story to tell. I wanted people to throw themselves into the vision and make up their own. But in the end I had to come up with one, which is second nature to me now. Even [Norwegian black metallers] Mayhem had a story. In the early ‘90s, before the internet, there was something that compelled us to want to find out more and listen to their music.”

This mythology Tobias has developed over the years was furthered with the release of Ghost’s fourth album, last year’s GRAMMY-nominated Prequelle, which introduced Tobias’ latest incarnation, Cardinal Copia, a character fans have come to love if the number of $40 plush toys sold at the merch desk tonight is any indication. More recently, a web series on YouTube has added to the intrigue, with the latest episode harking back to 1969, when a young Cardinal Nihil was fronting Ghost at the launch of their EP, Seven Inches Of Satanic Panic. That just so happens to be the band’s latest release in 2019, which will also be available as part of Prequelle Exalted, a limited collector’s edition of the album. Meanwhile, The Ultimate Tour Named Death has introduced the EP’s two new songs, Mary On A Cross and Kiss The Go-Goat, to its set list.

While Ghost’s music has always tipped its papal tiara to the ‘60s, particularly its psychedelic leanings, the latter song in particular sees them take this interest a step further. How much can we glean from them, then, with regards to where Ghost goes next? Not too much, as it turns out, according to Tobias, who suggests, as with the YouTube series, it’s a way to deepen the story of Ghost spanning from the ’40s to the present day, without necessarily providing clues to the sound of album number five.

“It’s just there for shits and giggles,” he laughs, before revealing that Kiss The Go-Goat, a song that’s been knocking around for some time, actually had the working title ‘The Throwback Single’. “I grew up listening to ‘60s music like the Rolling Stones and The Doors, as well as metal. People shouldn’t read too much into this direction, though. The next album is going to be something completely different from that.”

Can Tobias perhaps give two words to describe where, musically or thematically, album number five is heading?

“I’d choose the words ‘fifth’ and ‘album’,” he replies with a wry smile, before justifying what seems like a diversionary tactic. “I look at many fifth albums as a guide as to the urgency for what that record will need to be, with [Iron Maiden’s] Powerslave being a great example. By the fifth album you’re at a point in your career where you have this momentum built up, and you have the expectancy of people depending on you, so you have to put something special in those many spotlights. You need to step up and make a record that’s worth it and justifies all of these things.”

Who, then, can we expect to see fronting these rituals in future?

“I just know that person will have the name Papa Emeritus IV. It will be the fourth Papa Emeritus. But who that is, we don’t know yet.”

We’re not sure we believe him, so push for more. Might we see Cardinal Copia graduating to Papa status? The latest episode of the web series seems to indicate the ‘Sister Imperator’ character and Papa Nihil conceived a child. Wouldn’t that make him part of the papal bloodline?

“I think that what you will get over the next year are a lot of answers to a lot of questions,” offers Tobias, keeping things vague.

Like the question of whether Sister is pregnant? (In the latest ‘chapter’ of the web series, Sister attacks a woman at a Ghost show for smoking next to her).

“We don’t know that yet. It would blow my mind if she was now,” he says, clearly referring to the elderly Sister in the present day. This suggests she could well be with child back in 1969, though.

Has Tobias sketched what this new Papa will look like?

“Have you ever seen The Big Lebowski?” he asks by way of an answer, referencing the scene in the Coen brothers’ classic where Jeff Bridges’ character, The Dude, spots someone drawing on a notepad. When the man leaves the room with the piece of paper, The Dude rushes to scribble on to the page below to reveal the outline of what’s been drawn, only to discover it’s a doodle of a cock and balls. “It’s something along those lines.”

Sensing Tobias is in full evasion mode by this point, we change tack. Perhaps understanding his ambitions, and whether there’s a summit to them, can shed some light on the future – especially as he seems more focused on what Ghost’s next album will do rather than what it will sound like.

“I wouldn’t necessarily compare [my ambitions] to what the Rolling Stones have done, because that was a completely different time under completely different circumstances. For the last 40 years they have sold tickets because of nostalgic reasons, and maybe 40 years in the future there would be a nostalgia element for Ghost, but I can’t count on that.”

“I regard Metallica as colleagues and friends now, but they’re still Metallica,” he says of the thrash legends Ghost supported on their European stadium tour this summer. “I am an ambassador and they are presidents. But when I look to Metallica for influence, I’m looking at what they did in 1988. We’re on our fourth album, as they were on the Damaged Justice Tour, so the next stop is the Black Album.”

Spotting Kerrang!’s obvious joy at this admission, Tobias is quick to clarify exactly what he means by this.

“You have to make a responsible record,” he adds emphatically. “That doesn’t mean to expect riffs. It’s two different things – what the record sounds like and knowing to put yourself in the right spot at the right time. When I had nothing, and lived in a small apartment that cost very little because the ceiling leaked, the dream was to be able to live off making music. When I had kids that became even more important. Now it’s about something else. I’m responsible for showing my wife and my kids that all these years of waiting for me have been worth it. And that goes beyond money, because at the end of the day that’s just seasoning. One day my kids will be grown-up and I have to be able to show them that all this time playing rock shows had a real purpose.”

Of course, it doesn’t hurt that Tobias loves touring.

“I’m like a sailor,” he says. “I just love being on the ocean. I’ve not always been on tour, but I’ve always been a transient person. And the road to achieving all this is endless, just like the road I looked down when I was five seemed to me at the time.”

Kerrang

[npc-says]

Petyr Cliffside: Mistakes in Allyship

After receiving a less-than-ideal update, Petyr Cliffside dismisses the Orange Battalion soldier who had the misfortune of bringing the news. Cliffside thought himself above public displays of anger at the soldier’s expense; this was war, and losses were to be expected. It was only incompetence that drew Cliffside’s ire (mostly). Whatever incompetence resulted in this loss was not this particular soldier’s fault. 

With a sigh, Cliffside hovers over the war room map and frowns. As per the soldier’s updates, he moves a few markers and tokens on the map to reflect the most recent changes on the ground. 

Sixth Terrace has been reclaimed by the rebels. 

Cliffside can’t say that he’s particularly surprised at this development, which perhaps helps soften the blow of the loss. The city had been prematurely and haphazardly taken, or so the reports claimed. 

The trouble was that Stefan Miller was a curious mix of both the old nobility and the new Kunt worshippers. Dangerously, he was younger and he adopted and implemented more controversial changes that aligned more with Kunt’s radical ideas. Miller still had the air and poise of the old nobility and carried out these controversial changes with that same composure. 

For better or worse, his tactic of sneaking through radical policies in a calm, steady vessel was very hit-or-miss. The paralyzing shock of the brazenness of these policies bought the government time to act quickly; after all, Kunt’s policies by way of Miller were initially met with widespread disbelief that anyone in the government would so plainly take a strong stance against nonhumans. But after that initial shock had faded, however deep into implementation of those policies the government was, the uproar in response may not have been worth it in Cliffside’s eyes. Cliffside himself preferred the old way, of enacting much subtler changes over a long period of time; he was not a fan of Miller’s boldness and would have dressed the policy up as something a little more diluted. 

Such a difference in strategy and execution was apparent in how Sixth Terrace was captured. Cliffside had assigned Miller as Ambassador to the city, to act as his surrogate and agent while slowly taking control from Sixth Terrace’s local government. With that same even demeanor, Miller had carried out his orders. But Miller’s underlying methods were worthy of Cliffside’s reservations. To take the city once and for all, Miller said, he had allegedly bought his way into an alliance with a trio of dragons who could help contain the city. It was an expensive investment, but Miller stood by it, despite Cliffside’s insistence that such an alliance could prove to be dangerous and unpredictable. Cliffside was unfortunately proven right, as he was informed that the dragons had attacked the city prematurely when Orange Battalion soldiers were still working on stamping out the last of the dissenters. The victory that followed was very brief; as per the most recent update, the dragons and Miller were killed by rebel forces that came in from the south, and the Orange Battalion was driven out of the city. 

Cliffside surveys the large map as he muses about such a loss. It’s fine. We still have Lossan. We will take Wells Pier, Southport, and Broadison soon enough. As long as the rebels within those cities could be subdued, as long as his other Ambassadors didn’t have any crazy ideas to effectuate those orders, all would go according to plan. 

Still, the Resistance is peculiarly organized. For weeks, Cliffside has been trying to make sense of their plans. Before, banks, debt records, and debtor’s prisons were targeted and subject to complete destruction. Those particular commonalities did not yield much of a pattern. It made sense, after all; the rebel leader had proclaimed an all-our war on the country’s financial institutions. But after their destruction? There didn’t seem to be much else happening there. The murder of Kunt himself seemed like mere collateral damage in the course of the rebels trying to rescue their leader. Cliffside had expected an attempt on his life soon after, waits for it everyday now, but there has not even been an attempt on his life to be foiled. What was the point of it all? And now that martial law had overtaken the most restless cities, other than liberating cities that the Orange Battalion occupied, the rebels don’t seem to have a discernible plan. 

But somehow that felt...intentional? It didn’t feel sloppy or careless as Cliffside had originally thought. No, there was a method to the madness. And it was maddening to Cliffside to not be able to make sense of it. 

Worse, what the rebels lack in numbers, they make up for in efficacy, it seems. They seem to operate in packs. Very effective packs that struck swiftly and left destruction in their wake. If there were more of these rebels and they carried on like this, Cliffside would have been worried. But as it is, martial law and locking down movement in and out of cities helped reduce the threat of the rebel groups. Their numbers were scattered and their most powerful were injured. 

The arrival of Amwill Flintstone breaks into Cliffside’s thoughts. Cliffside could not say that he particularly liked the man. He was a stocky figure of Cliffside’s caliber, of the same age, upbringing, and pedigree. But there was a devious hunger that no manners or noble breeding could mask; that much became apparent when he was willing to abandon the old ways and dive off the deep end to do Kunt’s bidding. That he still holds a significant post after Kunt’s death seems to be a continuation of Kunt’s dark, chaotic legacy. 

The mixture of dwarven and orcish blood slogging through Flintstone’s veins was only apparent behind closed doors, when he allowed the veneer of magic to drop among his peers. Cliffside wondered what he had done to earn himself the absolute pleasure of seeing Flintstone all but unmasked on this particular day. 

“I see we lost one,” Flintstone observes, looking at the altered markers on Sixth Terrace. 

“We are holding the cities and taking more by the day,” Cliffside says. “The rebellion will wane soon enough.”

“Ah, then how do you explain what happened in Sixth Terrace?”

“A mistake in allyship,” Cliffside grumbles, staring warningly at Flintstone. Again, reports from the city stated that the dragons, in spite of the generous offerings from the administration for their loyalty, had acted much too quickly. That careless alliance was the problem. 

“Don’t forget the rebel invasion from the south.” 

“An unfortunate and unexpected occurrence,” Cliffside says curtly, “one that would not have been effective if the city had been taken properly.” Flintstone does not say anything but looks on knowingly. Cliffside finds the amusement in his doubt infuriating, though he does his best not to show it. He is not accustomed to being undermined with such thinly-veiled mockery. 

“The rebels are giving you a little more trouble than you bargained for, Chancellor,” Flintstone comments with a sneer. 

“We are handling it, I assure you.” 

“I’m not sure your methods are quite cutting it.” Flintstone circles around the table slowly, dragging a finger along the edge of the map. “I do recall, Chancellor, that many under your influence sought to constrain some of Kunt’s directives.”

“I can recall no such thing,” Cliffside says, lips pursed. 

“Oh sure, I’m sure you only made some suggestions to your people, but they took the hints pretty clearly. They took steps to prevent some of Dunghill Kunt’s...plans.”

“To let those plans come to fruition too early in the administration  would have only confirmed the Resistance’s suspicions about our leadership. War would have erupted much sooner if we had been so bold so quickly. We have crept slowly into their cities to gain the upper hand, and they have let us because we have moved carefully.”

“Kunt is dead now.” Flintstone finds some stray, unused tokens at the margins of the map and places them southward, around the Golden Trident. “And perhaps if not for the constraint imposed upon him, he would still be alive and this war would look very different.”

“What are you saying?”

“You need our help. It’s about time you let us.” Flintstone moves the tokens from the Golden Trident to the newly-liberated Sixth Terrace. “Let us help in ways we deem most effective. This is war, Chancellor. Your old way is not always effective in war.” He brings a heavy hand onto the pieces he just moved with a thud. “War is quick. Unpredictable. Chaotic.”

“Go on.”

“My spies have gathered information regarding a rebel group that was seen fleeing the Golden Trident around the time that communications with King Sunry were cut off,” Flintstone says. 

“And?”

“Subsequent sources reported seeing an influx of rebels coming to the aid of Sixth Terrace from the waters. Over 100 of them, apparently. I do not think that is a coincidence, and I highly doubt they are the only group moving between the cities we’ve captured.”

“Perhaps not,” Cliffside grudgingly agrees, on both accounts. 

“It would be in all of our best interests to...reduce those threats.”

“Hm.” Cliffside knows that Flintstone is right, as far as positioning the Orange Battalion is concerned. It simply isn’t feasible to both hold the cities while also sending scouts out to squash those groups. The Battalions were by no means skilled trackers, nor were they able to move swiftly and subtly. 

And it was true, it seems to be the numbers moving between the cities that are becoming problematic. Those are harder to pin down. And as was obvious with Sixth Terrace, it is the groups on the run that could liberate captured cities. 

It stood to reason, then, that a few extra sets of hands would be needed.

Flintstone sneers, knowing he has Cliffside right where he wants him. Cliffside lets himself be had, but only grudgingly, knowing that the alternative could be repeats of Sixth Terrace and a humiliating defeat that he had ensured the other nobles would never happen. 

“You worry about holding the cities, boss,” Flintstone says, clapping a hand on Cliffside’s shoulder in a gesture that the latter man finds several levels of unwelcome. Flintstone seems to relish in Cliffside’s recoiling. “I’ll take care of the rebels on the run. Just give me the go-ahead and it’ll be done.”

“Dare I ask what you have in mind for them?” Cliffside asks as he reluctantly scrawls a quick note on some parchment before handing it to Flintstone.

“Better not to ask, no,” Flintstone says with a dark grin.

[tactical-substitution]

The Konundrum of Kai Havertz

One of the principle things that differentiates a footballer from a writer, artist, or philosopher, relates to the significance of questioning and answering. Whereas in the latter examples, the very best ones tend to be characterized by the capacity to create puzzles and contradictions that invite further thought and insight, truly elite footballers are different; their presence on the pitch feels like a certain “this is just the way it is”. It can be surprisingly difficult to tactically analyze the Messis, Xavis, Ronaldos, and Lahms because the best footballers in a given generation excel so completely at their assigned tasks on the pitch that there are few questions left to ask. It is the great-but-problematic footballers who ellicit further reflection. It often ends up being the Sneijders and Goetzes and Balotellis who prompt fans to think and debate about exactly what they were good at, and why this was never enough to be “world class” footballers on a prolonged basis. If the former category could currently be said to consist of players like Kylian Mbappe, Virgil Van Dijk, and Kevin de Bruyne, it is unlikely that most football fans won’t already be thinking of someone who meets the latter criteria – a Romelu Lukaku, say, or a Sergej Milinkovic-Savic. It is obvious when watching some players play that there are things that they are capable of that few others would try, and yet actually fitting these players into the squads of clubs among the five or ten best in the world proves difficult. It is this space between manifest skillfulness and tangible skillset that would allow them to play at the absolute highest level that tends to illustrate what is required of the players for whom no such deficit exists, and creates a basis for scouting and player analysis at the level of potential Champions League winners.

Among younger players, little doubt exists as to the sufficiency of Kylian Mbappe or Jadon Sancho should a European giant wish to sign them – in virtually any tactical circumstances their technical and athletic gifts are enough to wreak havoc on any defense. These are the kinds of players who will set clubs back and arm and a leg, and be worth it. In this transfer window, there is perhaps no better example of a “great-but problematic” player attracting serious transfer interest than 20-year-old German international Kai Havertz, currently at Bayer Leverkusen. The young attacker has been seriously linked with the likes of Liverpool and Bayern Munich for months, though Chelsea have ostensibly lept to the front of the queue, having apparently only started on their spending spree with the acquisitions of Hakim Ziyech and Timo Werner. Barcelona, Real Madrid, PSG, Juventus, Man City, and Man United have all been linked at least somewhat credibly with attempts to woo the young German. Whether he moves in this transfer window, and if so where, could come down to any number of factors: Will Bayern prioritize his signature because of his nationality, and will the player feel the same way? Will the desire the work with a celebrity manager like Pep Guardiola or Jurgen Klopp be an incentive to push for a move to a particular club at a crucial point in the young player’s development? Maybe most germanely, who will actually be willing to spend the money should Leverkusen hold out for his buyout clause? In the cases of Sancho or Mbappe, nearly any fee or wage would be rewarded by a signing that is as close to a “sure thing” as exists; with Havertz, the risk seems to be far greater. Knowing why this is the case will be crucial for any signing club if they wish to mitigate that risk, and to not ensure that they have a player widely derided as a “misfit” or “flop” on their hands collecting high wages and attracting negligible transfer interest in two or three years’ time.

What makes Havertz a risky proposition relative to other putatively world-class youngsters is not a matter of talent or lack thereof – go watch a YouTube highlights video if you doubt he’s a marvel – but rather one of style and skillset. Analysts have observed that Havertz’s position could be thought of as a fairly orthodox and old-school number ten, which is a problem given that the clubs interested in him don’t necessarily play with tens. It is not simply that any one club incidentally does not currently play with a playmaker “in the hole”, but rather that the tactical dynamics of modern football have crowded such players out. Just look at the (mis)treatment of Mesut Ozil or Philippe Coutinho by fans compared to the universal adulation given to the likes of Thiago or Marco Verratti for their more “complete” midfield performances. Champions League holders and runaway Premier League leaders Liverpool are generally noted to play with a trio of “workhorse” midfielders supporting their adventurous fullbacks and explosive attackers, and have improved their fortunes dramatically since jettisoning Coutinho to Barcelona, while the player looks like a black sheep wherever he goes in spite of being a much more skilled and “watchable” player than current Liverpool midfielders like Jordan Henderson or Georginio Wijnaldum. Barca themselves were the best club side in living memory on the basis of the genius of midfielders like Xavi and Andres Iniesta on both sides of the ball, and were frankly foolish to regard Coutinho as a “replacement” for all of the things that Iniesta did on the pitch. Top teams attack, defend, and press as an organized unit, and it is hard to see a role for a “free” playmaker who cannot also cover spaces and defend individually in midfield, participate in the buildup of possession, and generally act as a multi-functional cog in a tactical system, or else play as out-and-out forwards stretching play, battling with defenders, and creating and scoring goals. Therein lies the rub for Havertz, who for all of his flashy ability does not really profile as the kind of player who can fill any of the roles in a truly modern football side that looks to dominate with and without the ball, at least without some development on his part, or some shoehorning and accommodating on the part of the team.

What it means to play as a number ten can be variable to different contexts, ranging from deeper-lying playmakers of the ilk of Carlos Valderrama, to creative attackers who would tend to play off of strikers or even as “false nines”, a la Francesco Totti. Havertz is much more in the latter mold, and in fact Totti is a decent comparison to his style of play. What Havertz is truly great at is using his balance, ball control, precise shooting, and passing range to conjure up “moments of magic” – high risk, high reward actions in and around the penalty box that if they work are very likely to lead to a good goal-scoring opportunity. In addition, his height and heading technique make Havertz an aerial threat if the ball is crossed to him. So far, so good – many analysts and pundits regard the scoring of goals as a tactical end worth pursuing. The problem, then, is that Havertz isn’t terribly good at doing much else. His one-on-one defending is nothing to write home about, he lacks the explosive pace to beat all but the slowest and most injured fullbacks if he ends up in a wide position, and he rarely involves himself in buildup play closer to his own goal. It is highly unlikely that he will get much faster, though he may well gain some physical strength and tactical intelligence – nevertheless, simply expecting the player to become a more solid defender or exert a more metronomic influence as he ages is frankly a gamble. If a big club decides to go in for Havertz they should be able to fit him into their plans commensurate to the amount of money they invest in him, and they should be able to do so now rather than in some ill-defined future where his game has become more balanced and less deficient. Accordingly, the thorny task around Havertz is determining whether his game, more or less as it currently exists, could fit into those of any of the superclubs he is linked with.

The most conventional possibilities for Havertz’s future are worth considering, and roughly align with the roles he has played at Leverkusen. He could play as a pseudo-right-winger, though this would necessitate an overlapping fullback or wingback to give width in attack. He is also possibly capable of playing as a withdrawn forward in the mold of Roberto Firmino, chipping in with a non-embarrassing goal tally but also pulling the strings creatively while the goalscoring burden is carried by wingers, a strike partner, or advanced midfielders. Neither of these are totally inconceivable, but unless Havertz irons out kinks in his game and broadens his skillset, they would necessarily pull teammates out of position to fill the gaps he leaves, potentially creating problems elsewhere on the pitch. Top managers quickly notice these kinds of things and are unlikely to be so impressed by his neat touches and controls that they don’t yank him from the starting XI in their quest for tactical impenetrability and balance. Another possibility is that Havertz will play as a “second striker” off of a more traditional number nine for the rest of his career. One system that could facilitate this would be some species of 4-2-4, with midfield areas occupied by a strong double pivot; another would be to position the wingers more conservatively so that the team lines up in more of 4-4-1-1. The former would be pretty absurdly attack-minded, perhaps resembling Pep Guardiola’s 2015-16 Bayern side when Kingsley Coman and Douglas Costa played high and wide, the fullbacks tended to assist the midfielders, and Thomas Muller (a German number ten a decade Havertz’s senior) played off of Robert Lewandowski. When fully functional, that side was mind-melting to watch, and Havertz might strive to emulate Muller’s successful interpretation of the attacking midfield role, with defenders never sure if he had dropping deep to create or darting to meet an aerial cross on his agenda. If Havertz were to play in the latter system, his role might be comparable to that of Antoine Griezmann at Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid, or perhaps a frame of reference would be the function of Juan Mata, Eden Hazard, and Oscar for Chelsea under managers like Jose Mourinho and Antonio Conte. The allure of this kind of role would of course be that Havertz is less likely to come across as a defensive liability in a system where virtually everyone is responsible for a great deal of defensive grunt work in one way or another and he is the primary creative outlet, constantly looking to locate himself in a point of weakness in the opposition’s structure, receive the ball, and then make the “magic” happen. Where problems come up is when one remembers how much running around the likes of Griezmann or Oscar always did. Even in a counter-attacking side, even if a player does much more than their fair share of creative passing and danger-creation, they will still inevitably be expected to harass opposition defenders and midfielders out of possession, and Havertz has not yet clearly demonstrated the stamina or the tactical intelligence to be apt to such a role.

One last possibility for Havertz would be to play as a kind of “false midfielder”. He could stand in midfield areas to make up the numbers and aid in a tactical plan to create numerical overloads in central areas, and then when able to get closer to goal, really start to add value. The problem here is that Havertz has not yet shown that he can become a safer, higher-volume passer at even the level of, say, David Silva or Isco. Those midfielders are nowhere near the central midfielders that they are attacking ones, and cannot resolve situations in congested areas through passing combinations at the level of their compatriots Iniesta or Xavi, but they can at least participate in such exchanges without constantly playing catastrophic sideways passes which result in counter-attacking opportunities for the opponent, and thereby justify their presence on the pitch for when they are able to be more useful in the final third. Is Havertz trustworthy enough to do so? If so, he has not yet shown it. With all of these hypotheticals, it is not outside the realm of possibility that the player will simply develop his game through practice, coaching, and the last embers of puberty, and be able to play them satisfactorily, but this seems like too speculative an expectation to ground such a large financial outlay in. Havertz is who he is right now, and should be scouted for his demonstrated skillset rather than based on wishful thinking. If a club is to justify the purchase of Havertz, then they may have to fundamentally rethink the kind of player he is, and re-rationalize how they will fit him into their plans.

What clubs should expect to get should they bid for Havertz, is a kind of very expensive water-carrier. When most football fans hear that phrase they likely do not think of a player of Havertz’s qualities. French attacker Eric Cantona infamously used the epithet to describe his international teammate Didier Deschamps, as a kind of tongue-in-cheek way of belittling his compatriot’s contribution to the collective effort. Other players who tend to come to mind as “water carriers” might be Marcel Desailly or Claude Makelele. What all of these players have in common, besides their nationality, is a particular skillset, which was as narrow as it was well-executed. These midfielders had the match-intelligence to step up and engage opponents at the right times without getting caught out of positions, assisted defenders at risk of being over-burdened, covered for teammates who may have been out of position, were precise in challenges, could effectively mark dangerous opposition players as effectively as a center-back, and were mobile enough to cover ground and arrive at the right time and place to slow down or stop opposition attacks or win the ball back. In possession they were all fairly conservative, prioritizing consolidating possession and passing to teammates in space over attempting any risky passes or skills on the ball. They are greats of the game because they “carried the water” for more flashy teammates who were given more license to improvise and take risks closer to the opposition goal, by performing these kinds of simple actions with great competence and consistency. Clearly this does not sound like the kind of player that Havertz is, and in fact quite the opposite, but what if there is more than one way to carry the water?

If the main impression that most fans have of Cantona’s famous phrase is that it describes the duties of a defensive or holding midfielder, there is perhaps another interpretation of it that should be considered, which has more fidelity to his intentions with the quip: a “water carrier” is a player who performs a narrow range of mechanized actions to support the team, in contrast with teammates whose roles entailed doing more different things, in a greater variety of situations, in order to really unlock games and break down an opposition. In Cantona’s time this was arguably a fairly accurate rendering of the dynamics of how a footballing side functioned – midfielders and defenders tended to keep a compact shape closer to their own goal, and tens, wingers, and center-forwards were given the task of breaking down those compact structures with “moments of magic”. In such a (simplified, admittedly) context Havertz would be an absolute star with his skillset, as he would constantly have the game in front of him, virtually daring him to find a distressed point in an opposition’s defensive structure in which he could dribble, run into, or find a teammate with a through-ball. There is no doubt that defenders and midfielders would find it difficult to deal with Havertz’s clever runs, deft controls, and overall skillfulness for approximately half of a ninety-minute football match, and the onus would be on his “water carrier” teammates rather than him to do much of the serious running and remain positionally alert. Perhaps in such a situation Kai Havertz would truly be living high on the hog. Unfortunately for the young German, he was not even born at the time that that footballing milieu existed, and so must contend with the landscape of 2020.

When one watches the football sides of Guardiola, Klopp, Tuchel, Pochettino, or Sarri, it is pretty abundantly clear that the players are not divided into conservatively-positioned grunts and attacking artists running around at the will of their self-governing genius improvising ways to foil the defensive goons. It is a cliché to describe top-level sides in the modern game as “fluid” or praise their “discipline” and “organization”, but there is a good reason for that. Modern approaches are based on using all ten outfield players, and increasingly the goalkeeper, to circulate and advance the ball into positions of overloaded strength in possession, and stymy and harass opponents out of doing any of that out of possession. The number nine is the first defender, and the goalkeeper the first attacker, and all of that. It is somewhat difficult to see a place for a solitary magician like Kai Havertz in all of that, as modern footballing sides tend to rely on the industry and intelligence of their forwards to keep opposition defenders from building up attacks, and don’t tend to rely quite as heavily on one or two especially flashy players to break down defenses as sides of the past. For a modern superclub, an attack might look something like a left-sided midfielder and left-winger forcing an opposition defender to play an errant long pass by swarming them and giving them little option, a left-back retrieving the ball and playing it to the holding midfielder, who consolidates possession with a quick interchange with the right-back, allowing the right-back to engineer a free path close to the opposition penalty area where they can cross to whichever attackers or midfielders are able to plausibly compete for an aerial ball with the opposition defenders. In scenarios of this kind, Kai Havertz is unlikely to play much of a part, and if he does is unlikely to be doing anything that a less costly player with a different skillset would be unable to. This is before one considers his (relative lack of a) defensive contribution. In these kinds of tactically sophisticated, high-tempo “gegenpressing” encounters, Havertz begins to look like something of a flat-track bully and an anachronism rather than a superstar.

How, then, is Havertz to fit in to a modern footballing side, if at all? In the above scenarios, and indeed in the squads of big clubs like PSG, Juventus, and Bayern, midfielders (and increasingly fullbacks) are expected to have broad skillsets, and to be able to move and progress the ball in a variety of ways and to defend actively and passively, and indeed academies across the world are producing players who can “do it all” without any “master of none” caveats. Take potential Havertz destination Bayern for example: Austrian defender David Alaba, who has spent the bulk of his club career at left-back but was groomed for a kind of hybrid center-back/midfield role by Guardiola, and plays as an attacking midfielder for his country, plays as a center-back playing incisive long and short passes to start attacks, and uses his anticipation and speed to expertly mark opponents. Former right-back Joshua Kimmich has played in central midfield this season, and has arguably been the best player in his position in the entire world. Young Canadian winger Alphonso Davies has deputized at left-back, and, like Alaba and Kimmich, has been a strong candidate for the most effective and complete player in the world or at least the league in his position, despite it not actually being his position, using his lightning pace to monitor an entire side of the pitch, overlapping intelligently in attack and showing excellent reading of the game to make vital defensive clearances and tackles, all while looking frigidly cool in building up possession in conjunction with his more experienced comrades. These are as much the stars of Bayern’s juggernaut team as their vaunted forward players, along with the defensive likes of Niklas Sule, Benjamin Pavard, and Jerome Boateng. Whichever system Bayern choose to play, it is unlikely that Havertz would be their most important player or even particularly close despite playing in a role that would render him the traditional “star player”. What would the young German mark himself out as, then, were the Bavarian club to take a punt on him?

In the tactical schemes employed by top clubs of the 1990s, elite attacking midfielders of the ilk of Roberto Baggio, Zinedine Zidane, and Michael Laudrup were not only the “stars” of their club and national sides in terms of press attention and shirt sales, but were also typically the players who would quantitatively have a “starring role” in the sense of touching the ball with greater frequency and significance than teammates. Over the last two decades and under the influence of the “positional” approaches of Marcello Bielsa, Louis Van Gaal, and Guardiola, and the “counter-pressing” philosophies employed by Klopp, Roger Schmidt, and Ralf Rangnick, deeper-lying, less directly creative midfielders have emerged as the “protagonists” in matches where the majority of clubs prioritize ball retention in safe areas, and use structured possessional routines to both keep a compact defensive shape and manipulate the ball into dangerous areas. On and off the ball it has been midfielders such as Sergio Busquets and Mousa Dembele and, increasingly, defenders like Trent Alexander-Arnold and David Alaba who have not only spent the most time directly controlling the play of games, but also had to use the widest array of dribbles, passes, tricks, and controls to keep and manoeuvre the ball, and this has been by design. Even many smaller clubs have come to adopt this style of play, but, most relevant to the immediate future of Havertz, every title-chasing club across Europe with whom he has been linked play this way. Gone are the one-dimensional “water carrier” defenders and holding midfielders, and in their place a generation of deeper-positioned players with the skillsets of traditional number tens (many of whom in fact played in that role at youth level or earlier in their playing careers) have emerged. At the tip of the spear pace has been the attribute that most preoccupies top managers, whose obsession has been with using the coordinated movement of attackers to provide passing options and open up spaces for one another and for advancing midfielders and wingbacks or fullbacks. These attackers have found themselves in the role of “water carriers” for their more cultured teammates further back on the pitch, performing simple actions in a relatively mechanized way, but doing so at such a high level that the new breed of holding playmakers are able to use their broader skillsets to move the ball into areas which have been given situational tactical significance and danger by their water-carrying forward comrades.

If the modern “water carriers” are the quick and tricky attackers whose speedy movements create the chaotic conditions which their teammates exploit, then how is a player with little natural pace or explosive acceleration to distinguish themselves? This is the scouting question that lingers over Kai Havertz – his actual skillset looks quite narrow against a frame of reference where playmakers are expected to do their work in more congested and treacherous midfield areas, but if a club side were able to exploit the young German’s demonstrated capacity to pass creatively in and around the penalty area to its fullest extent, it might well be enough in and of itself to justify his presence on the pitch. The problem is that it is not immediately obvious how his skillset and limitations could be accommodated by the tactical schemes employed by the likes of Guardiola, Klopp, and so forth. In the case of a true two-way midfielder or an explosive winger, it requires little imagination to see how they would be “plugged in” to the kinds of tactical systems used by Man City or Liverpool – the dynamics of these systems are calibrated to balance the extensive skillsets of the star players against the intensive skillsets of the water carriers, albeit in a markedly different ways from the suberclubs of the 90s. In the case of Havertz, it is clear that he would end up being a “water carrier” in a limited role were he to wind up at either club, but decidedly murkier whose water he would be carrying, and what kind of intricate tactical scheme of delegating tasks would mediate this balance. Managers, scouts, and pundits understand the scouting question for an old-school defensive midfielder – will this player’s ability to mark opponents and plug gaps carry the water left at that club by its existing, defensively cavalier squad without creating an awkward stylistic disjunction? The same kind of scouting question will have to inform clubs as they contemplate allocating a large chunk of their budget towards Havertz – in what way can the existing or prospective squad play on and off the ball such that Havertz’s superior skillset around the penalty area will free up teammates to do all of the other important work which they are more suited to without having to worry about scoring and assisting goals as much as they might otherwise have to?

Such a question is radically different from the orthodox perspective from which clubs (as well as football journalists, fans, etc.) tend to approach scouting a “star” player like Havertz, but its pertinence is a consequence of the style of modern football. As Casemiro is a guaranteed starter at Real Madrid because his prodigious volume of tackles and interceptions mitigates his pedestrian on-ball skillset and “frees up” his more expansively-passing teammates, big clubs eyeing up Havertz must consider whether the routineness with which his movement, vision, and skillfulness make the difference in the final third can be utilized as a similar kind of mechanized action to Casemiro’s defensive interventions; such a question is not simply a matter of whether or not the scales can be balanced by such and such a teammate who performs an equal number of opposite actions, but a rather more dynamic one of what types of things a team’s midfielders, defenders, and strikers might suddenly be able to do on the pitch if they are safe in the knowledge that Havertz is reliably carrying the water around the penalty area. This is the kind of complex tactical question that elite managers and sporting directors get paid eye-watering wages to attempt to solve, though it may well be intractable to the point where Havertz is virtually fated to wind up at a club like Valencia or Leicester City in five years’ time. It is also a question with a crass quantitative dimension – if Havertz is only creating and scoring a few goals per league season then the truly big clubs needn’t ponder his unbalanced skillset at all, whereas if he’s directly responsible for two goals every game then all other more nuanced questions become moot in a much different way. In reality, Havertz is in double figures for combined expected goals scored and assisted in both of the last two Bundesliga seasons, and has gone one something of a finishing tear that has made him look like a seriously prolific goalscorer, but he is nowhere near the “get him at any price, figure out what to do with him later” levels of Messi or Neymar, or even Eden Hazard in an average season. Havertz is a seriously tidy-looking attacking midfielder whose flashy skills have led to tangible goal contributions which are nothing to shake a stick at, but he has not as of yet demonstrated that he can shoulder an attacking burden commensurate to the defensive one carried by a Casemiro or an N’Golo Kante.

Scouts, managers, and analysts will have to squint hard at the data and footage, and figure out a way in which Havertz’s skillset can be made to carry a little more water than it currently is - his height and precise heading technique, for example, could probably be exploited more than they are currently being. But this kind of conundrum casts a fog of doubt on the notion of splashing a hundred million Euros on the player – sure, he’s nice, but shouldn’t that kind of a cash outlay mean we don’t have to think so hard to figure out what to do with him? You scour a wine store for half an hour looking for an obscure Greek red on a clearance sale and pair it with precisely the right meal to get the most value out of your wine-buying dollar, but if you go and squander your money on a seventy-dollar Barolo you kind of expect that you’ll open it up and it will just be good – otherwise what’s the point? None of this is to say that Kai Havertz clearly isn’t worth whatever fee and wages a club ends up parting with to secure his services – he can do all kinds of exquisite things with the ball at his feet (and head) that look like the kinds of things that players do in the highlights footage from Champions League and World Cup knockout games. He can do, and has routinely done, the kinds of things that decide those kinds of games, sometimes against the kinds of defenders who try and stop a player from doing them. But rather than looking at him as the next Baggio, Totti, or even Muller, big clubs across Europe should consider the sense in which Cantona belittled Deschamps for doing such a narrow range of mundane things, and stick to the mantra that if they end up buying a water carrier, it is the rest of the squad and the manager who will end up carrying him. If Havertz can end up doing as few things as well as Deschamps did, he will turn into a footballing legend like the current France manager, but if he doesn’t turn out to live up to the “as well as” part then he will only ever be the kind of player who fans and pundits describe as “fun to watch, but limited.”

If the phrase “it is the water carrier who is really the one being carried” doesn’t evoke the image of a white-haired Shaolin monk in a Shaw Brothers film or the sound of a bong gurgling in the bedroom of some philosophy undergrad, then maybe a more traditional brain-teasing dialectic will do the trick – “the more that things change, the more that they stay the same.” When one frames Havertz’s skillset as being that of a traditional number ten, he is cast as an anachronism. When football fans of a certain age hear the phrase “number ten” they are likely to think of big 90s Serie A clubs, and the likes of Baggio, Totti, Veron, Zidane, or Riquelme. Footballing reactionaries sick of the ultra-disciplined grimness through which a club like Liverpool can optimize small advantages and secure a string of one-goal victories on a march to domestic and continental glory might well fantasize about a career path wherein Havertz loafs around at the big Milan and Rome clubs and Fiorentina, playing in a way that gets described as “languid”. In this scenario none of these clubs ever hire a “modern” coach or sporting director, or at least nobody more progressive than Sacchi, and the footballing landscape in Italy is fixed to a particularly simplified representation of the league two or three decades ago. He might even be able to show up drunk, as many football writers seem to insinuate that Andrea Pirlo did when they make gratuitous references to his wine connoisseurship as some kind of synecdoche of his “elegant” and “old-world” style of play. All joking aside, there is a credible case to be made that Havertz’s skillset make him something like a genuine anachronism – he’s likely fitter and certainly has more video analysis sessions under his belt than the old school number tens, but this hasn’t ironed a marked stylistic resemblance out of him. Where this begins to look like some kind of big conundrum is when one looks at where he plays, and who he plays for: Havertz has a starring role at an exemplary progressive, data-driven, modern pressing football club, stewarded by a well-regarded “gegenpressing” manager with stylistic roots in the Holland/Ajax “total football” philosophy.

If Havertz were to play as a “traditional” number ten, more or less singlehandedly acting as a creative outlet in an otherwise defensively rigid unit then he would likely end up under a manager like Mourinho or Simeone, playing the central playmaking role in a 4-4-1-1 or 4-2-3-1 system. It is possible that he would wind up in a system with a three-man defensive line and wingbacks behind him were he to play under the likes of Nuno or Antonio Conte, just as the number ten playmakers in football’s bygone era may well have played in both back-three and back-four systems, but like those players he would expect to play a creative role in front of a well-drilled unit that no one would describe as “fluid”. At Bayer Leverkusen, Havertz has played a non-negligible number of minutes as the team’s sole attacking midfield, in a “free eight” role (similar to the “false midfielder” roles of Kevin de Bruyne and the Silvas at Man City) alongside Julian Brandt, as a central striker or false nine, and in a pseudo-right wing role, and has generally looked very good wherever he has played while never having a hugely different role or set of jobs on the pitch or displaying a different skillset more suitable to the position which he is ostensibly playing. He looks like a classy player wherever he plays, but he always looks like Havertz. This positional carousel is operated by manager Peter Bosz, who has set the team up with back-three, back-four, and back-five defensive systems and rotated his midfielders and attackers significantly, giving minutes to all members of Leverkusen’s impressively deep squad. Bosz seems determined to extract serious contributions from his entire diverse cast of players, and has demonstrated a great talent for devising tactical plans that allow basically any combination of them within reason to be on the pitch at the same time and function according to his broader tactical principles. Havertz will be moved around to accommodate this or that attacking partner, but rather than shining by playing the position in an orthodox manner, much credit should go to the manager for setting up the team in such a way that they are collectively able to engineer the kinds of situations in which Havertz is able to do Havertz stuff.

On paper, the fluid and modern tactical schemes employed by Bosz at Leverkusen could hardly resemble the rigid systems that brought success to managers like Lippi, Trapattoni, or Hitzfeld less, but in a very real sense he has simply found much different means to the same end of accommodating his star playmaker. For the number tens at the superclubs of the 90s, positional freedom and the license to move to where they could do the most damage with the ball was a key condition that allowed them the autonomy to control attacks. At Leverkusen, Havertz similarly tends to “go where the action is”, insinuating himself at the center of counter-attacks and picking up pockets of space in which to pick apart deep-lying defensive blocks when his team have established stable possession in the hopes that a teammate will find him so that he can execute the kinds of high-risk manoeuvres which he is so good at. The boy is not going to drag a full-back very far with an off-the-ball run or physically intimidate an opponent into coughing up the ball in a dangerous area, but let him roam around looking for ways to solve attacking problems with the ball at his feet and he’ll eventually figure something out. In previous footballing contexts, players of Havertz’s ilk would accomplish this with the help of a tight-knit lineup behind them playing in, let’s say, two banks of four, with one or two forwards making attacking runs for them to pick out. At Leverkusen, as in hyper-modern Bundesliga-standard football generally, Havertz does not have as fixed a formation supporting him, but his teammates are essentially trying to accomplish the same kind of support structure as were those of Zidane or Veron, but simply doing so in a more sophisticated and convoluted way.

It makes a certain kind of intuitive sense that in a footballing milieu where the significance of pressing and collective actions on and off the ball have been elevated, and successful sides are more thoroughly drilled than ever with the assistance of video analysis and even the literal use of drone footage, the high-level task of having a bunch of unit of outfield players supporting one “star” player would require a more positionally fluid set-up than the traditional formations. In fact, going back to the earlier discussion, it is not difficult to see how the “stars” would become marginalized and the players tasked with the increasingly byzantine task of freeing them up would increasingly take up the mantle of being their teams’ most significant contributors in this context. At any rate, when one watches Leverkusen play, it becomes clear that apart from Havertz’s colleagues in the attacking line playing in such a way as to maximize his options, the contributions of the players behind him on the pitch are absolutely crucial to his capacity to play the way that he does. Leverkusen have traditional defenders and hard-tackling, orthodox midfielders, but no mere “water carriers”. Bosz often plays with three players in the center-back position, but is disinclined to play three out-and-out center-backs, often preferring instead of play full-back Wendell or one of the identical-twin midfielders Lars and Sven Bender in the defensive band – like Bayern manager Hansi Flick, he clearly considers recovery pace and passing ability to be as important as the ability to win headers and make goal-line clearances in his defenders and is willing to play squad members “out of position” to accomplish this. Full-backs or wingers are often played in wide positions as is customary, but Bosz has shown a habit of playing four true central midfielders in his midfield line, giving a clear window into his tactical outlook and into his strategy for getting the best out of Havertz. Julian Baumgartlinger and Charles Aranguiz are the two most defensively-minded of Leverkusen’s midfielders, with Nadiem Amiri and Kariem Demirbay more obviously skillful technicians when they are tasked with making a creative pass or keeping the ball under pressure. All of the club’s primary midfield options, however, are well-rounded in their skillsets, in the same way that the defensive line are expected to be. All of Leverkusen’s midfielders are instructed to press in unison, play passing combinations, drop into the defensive line, and join the attack when the situation calls for it. When seven or eight players can collectively work at a high athletic and technical level to provide structure, make defensive interventions, create adequate spaces in wide and central areas, and so on, it becomes easy to see how a player like Kai Havertz is able to thrive.

Arguably the most analogous current side to Bayer Leverkusen playing at a high level are Atalanta Bergamo, managed by Italian veteran Gian Piero Gasperini. As with Leverkusen, Atalanta focus on attacking far more than they do on defending, and their roaming playmaker-attackers Josip Illicic and Papu Gomez provide reasonable points of stylistic comparison for Havertz. Within Atalanta’s tactical setup, the importance of midfielders Marten de Roen and Remo Freuler being able to undertake a wide variety of unglamorous tasks related to pressing, defending, ball retention and progression, and keeping a collective structural balance through correct positioning cannot be overstated; neither can the significance of the wide-positioned wingbacks, acting as defensive and especially offensive outlets capable of doing the tireless running that the team’s more technically proficient attacking midfielders are unwilling or unable to do. The team must constantly be able to make up the numbers in various areas of the pitch in order to function in passing, defending, attacking the opposition penalty area, and so forth. Illicic and Gomez are reasonably intelligent players, but Illicic in particular is not exactly renowned for his leopard-fast bursts of pace or tremendous workrate. Like Leverkusen, Atalanta play with anachronistic number ten players by screwing with the formula further back on the pitch, and may provide a window into what ought to be done with Havertz in the future. The problem lies in the fact that Atalanta are a “fun” side, but they are far from a “complete” side. The immense ability of Illicic and Gomez has made Atalanta into something of an offensive juggernaut to the point that they are reliable top-four finishers in Serie A despite having far from the fourth-largest budget in the league, but their presence creates a kind of chain of deferred problem that ultimately results in the club’s center-backs frequently chasing back in comical fashion or playing calamitous forward passes because they are isolated from their teammates. Will a team like Man City or Chelsea, whose problems this season have been much more with their defending than going forward, look at Leverkusen and Atalanta and their status as “entertainers” whose matches produce goals at both ends, and decide that Havertz is a prudent signing? It does not seem entirely likely.

Perhaps if a big club is to roll the dice on Kai Havertz, they should look to play with a support structure similar to that employed at Leverkusen, but simply have better midfielders and defenders than Leverkusen. This is probably not the kind of suggestion for which a sporting analyst in a big club’s employ can hope to receive a big promotion, but it may well work. Leverkusen have pretty talented players all over the pitch, but they do not have any one player as truly excellent as PSG’s Marco Verratti, Real Madrid’s Dani Carvajal, or Chelsea’s Jorginho. It is well within the realm of possibility that a club that can afford Havertz can also afford the kinds of players who are so good that they can sufficiently control the aspects of the game that Havertz doesn’t, and allow him to do what he is exceptional at. The issue, given everything previously discussed, is with the proposition of outlaying such a large sum on the player. Why not simply cut out the middleman, sign some midfielders and fullbacks who can collectively do a reasonable amount of goal-creation and goal-scoring without Havertz’s presence on the pitch and be done with it – is there really a high-level system that is truly balanced in which there is really no substitute for a player of his skillset? After all, an industrious and athletic midfielder can create the possibility of a goal with a well-timed run, and a full-back can cross the ball with a meaningful chance of creating a good goal-scoring opportunity.

The scouting question returns to the one of whether Havertz’s gratuitously skillful on-ball ability makes him viable as a “water carrier” for world-class teammates who can do more than just create and score a decent volume of chances. If not, then surely it is the players whose skillsets are more well-rounded than Havertz’s who should be attracting the ridiculous fees rather than the young German. A more tantalizing question might be whether it is feasible for Havertz to do everything he has shown himself capable of doing around the penalty area at Leverkusen, do nothing more, and still have the rest of the team do plenty of solid attacking work in addition to that done by him rather than burdening him almost entirely with making the attack hum. All of this is of course contingent on the rest of the squad being capable of, firstly, feeding the ball to Havertz in the areas where he needs it, and secondly, doing the defensive and ball-progression work that are not really his forte. Any team with serious structural issues in their defensive and midfield areas should be looking nowhere near the youngster as his expensive purchase is highly unlikely to indirectly solve any issues in defense or build-up, and could quite possibly exacerbate them.

All of these questions could reasonably be rendered moot if Havertz simply broadens his skillset somewhat. It shouldn’t be presumed to be inevitable, but it’s far from unheard of for young attacking midfielders to pick up the aspects of the game which are more subtle than getting a shot away or looking for the killer pass. Genuinely top-tier central midfielders like Luka Modric and Andrea Pirlo initially profiled as classical number tens, and it is not too much of a leap of imagination to imagine the German’s balance and passing range being transposed to deeper areas on the pitch. A version of Kai Havertz who shows enough composure to regularly drop back and assist midfielders positioned deeper than him while also demonstrating the same skillset that he already has is basically Kevin de Bruyne. Then again, a version of Michel Platini whose body hasn’t gone downhill athletically over the past three and a half decades and whose reputation isn’t tarnished by a series of corruption scandals is basically peak Michel Platini. A disgusting, greasy broken Hollandaise that was instead emulsified properly by someone who knows how to cook is a delicious sauce. If clubs get too tempted by the prospect of the kind of player that Havertz could be if such and such conditions are met and base their decision to buy him on that, then they are buying the conditions along with the player, and the potential for an expensive mistake is very much baked into the structure of such a valuation.

Have the scouts for Europe’s super-elite considered all of this and analyzed it in greater depth and with more technical resources than has been done in this piece? Without question. Will this ensure that their decision to bid or not bid for Kai Havertz is the right one? Not necessarily. But regardless of what happens with the young player, consideration of who he is as a player right now, who he reasonably could be, and what kinds of conditions must be met for him to end up a success has facilitated a level of reflection on the nature of modern football that would not be the case with other higher-end players. What kinds of scouting questions need a club ask about Raphael Varane, say, if he’s unsettled in Madrid? He’s ridiculously quick, his positioning and decision-making are as good as it gets, he wins his aerial duels. There is no question, go all in for him. What about another 20-year-old Bundesliga sensation, Jadon Sancho? His quick feet, strength, and quick change of direction make him one of the most effective dribblers on the planet, and he’s demonstrated plenty of end product over the past two seasons in Dortmund. If you could use an attacking player and have the money, you go for him, little analysis is necessary. But human agency tends to orient itself towards problems, contradictions, and puzzles, and when a player is as manifestly brilliant as Kai Havertz is without necessarily fitting into any of the truly elite European superclubs, the urge to philosophize his situation takes over. It is this urge which will guide how clubs scout Havertz, and every other player under the sun, if they are to grab themselves a future superstar or at least a useful contributor and not another expensive disappointment.

[metalgearkong]

Justice League - Review

11/30/17

Directed by Zack Snyder & Joss Whedon

Justice League is the long awaited team up of DC super heroes much like Marvel’s Avengers. You would think with these larger than life characters, who hold so much value, and who are so treasured in today’s culture, would be treated with the utmost care. Unfortunately, Warner Bros and the director have been trying to shove this version of DC super heroes down our throats, and it hasn’t been working since inception. Justice League does not change this, and sadly, continues the trend of limp, tonally confusing, structurally failing qualities of the DC Extended Universe.

After the death of Superman at the end of Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice, Batman (Ben Affleck) tries to pull a team together due to his ominous vision of an apocalyptic invasion. Having already shaken hands with Diana Price (Gal Gadot), Bruce Wayne sets out to recruit other “meta humans” towards his cause. The movie consists of several rushed events introducing such large characters as Aquaman (Jason Mamoa), The Flash (Ezra Miller), and Cyborg (Ray Fisher), all in the first act. Cyborg’s story is easily the most tragic, and we sadly get very little development time with him. The Flash is going to be a lot of people’s favorites, even if Warner Bros aren’t using the same Flash as from the very popular TV show. Aquaman is probably the most epic person to introduce and he gets shockingly little background as well.

Warner Bros infamously mandated that Justice League be within 2 hours of running time, so its easy to see why the film feels like there’s a lot missing. This is one of the worst types of films to limit, as it has so much going on and so many characters. Warner Bros thought this would be a smart move because the feedback they got from Batman V Superman was that it is too long; but of course, the big company was wrong, and Justice League movie suffers for it. The villain Steppenwolf (Ciara Hinds) is one of the most forgettable and badly defined villains in all of comic book film history. Not only is he just a big guy with horns who wants to destroy the world 3 magic macguffins, he’s made entirely in dated CGI. Nothing is unique or memorable about him, and when your opposing force in a comic book movie is this bland, the action and the narrative suffer greatly.

I still believe Batfleck is one of the better parts about these movies. I’m all for a darker, more violent, tenured Batman, as this character changes with the times, and has no one set personality or belief systems (in spite of what many people might say). I am more than ready for the Matt Reeves “The Batman” film in a few years. Gal Godot as Wonder Woman is also one of the best aspects about this movie, as we all already expected. She’s still not quite a top tier hero in the entire pantheon of film, but she certainly is the easiest to root for and care about. The only problem with her is how her powers and limitations are slightly undefined, as sometimes she’s as fast as the Flash or as strong as Superman, whenever convenient for any given scene.

Something that is a surprise to absolutely no one is that Superman (Henry Cavill) returns. This potentially epic and emotional plot point is lead up to with very little gravitas. We all knew Superman wouldn’t stay dead for long when he “died” at the end of Batman V Superman, so this entire song and dance has been completely pointless and a waste of time. The very way they brought him back was rushed, confusing, lazy, and made no logical sense. But, DC was hearing fan criticism, and gave Superman a slightly more friendly personality, and the color on his suit (and other character’s suits) is obviously toned up for a more vibrant visual experience. Once he was alive, he’s more warm than he has been thus far.

There are rare moments which invested me in this movie. Although Superman’s return was limp and lame, when he started laying some punches on the invincible Steppenwolf I did get a tiny inner moment of glee. We got to see the bright red and blues of Superman punching down a big spiky supervillain  The Flash had a few funny moments, but the humor was overplayed a bit too much. Aquaman sadly is a non-element in this film, further proof that each and every one of these super heroes needed their own solo film before this big team-up movie. Not only is the concept rushed, the CGI in most instances looks unfinished, unpolished, and is used way too often as a crutch. The result is a movie that very blatantly was mostly shot on a green screen, and shows a lack of care and craft behind the scenes. Cyborg in particular has a physically uninspired design and the CGI on him is deep within the uncanny valley.

The only other small thing I liked about this movie is how Danny Elfman provided the musical score of the film, and there are small hints at the classic 1989 Batman theme, and John William’s theme for the original Superman movie. I want more of this. I want more iconic music to support the characters and emotion. I can only pray these musical themes are used more in the future films. Ironically, a small section of the Superman theme is when Superman has just been resurrected and is confused and is briefly “evil.” I liked this part because it showed how compelling he could be as a villain. It was the only subversive moment in the film and my imagination couldn’t help but wonder how cool it would be for the team to have to work together to defeat Superman, return him to normal, and then team up with him against the greater threat.

As Wonder Woman says to Batman “I think all this time I’ve been reacting, not leading.” This, to me, is a line written by Joss Whedon and is meant to be self-aware as it comes to the rivalry between the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the DC Extended Universe. This is the most positive and professional spin I can imagine someone with respect for the franchise admitting to DC’s struggle to be of relevance compared to Marvel’s films. Justice League is a premature, half-baked, desperate attempt for DC to capture the magic from the Avengers, and unfortunately it doesn't have the guts to rise above mediocrity. A few small good details don’t save this movie.

5/10

[goodguyjean]

Oh wow. You are the perfect person to answer this question for me and I don't know why I didn't think to ask you till now. Just how good of friends do you think Jean was with Marco? Because if you look at the manga alone, they seem to be no closer to each other than the rest of the top 10. However if you look at the anime, smart pass content, spin offs, the wings of freedom game, the guidebook, all things isayama apparently had his hand in.. They do. What do you think their canon friendship was?

Hiya anon!

By my definition of canon for thepurposes of meta-analysis—i.e. something that appears explicitly within themain series of manga—I think that Marco and Jean are actually not particularlyclose; rather, I think there’s a hint at their potential for a good friendship,and part of what Jean mourns at the mass funeral is that potential. Incontrast, the anime sets them up as friends from their trainee days, makingMarco’s loss a more personal experience for Jean, one which can potentiallyinstill a desire for revenge in him. Therefore, I think the Smart Pass AUinterview and the extra content in the guidebook are, depending on Isayama’sactual level of involvement with them, retcons to align the manga’spresentation of Jean and Marco’s relationship more closely with the anime’s.

I got out pictures again, so furtherexplanation is under the cut!

My approach to canon is admittedly differentthan Isayama’s, and so may require some explanation. Isayama seems to operateas if all things set in the Attack onTitan universe are canon, that the anime can “fix” things he didn’t likeabout the manga, and that when something changes in the anime he needs to makethat adjustment in the manga as well (see, for instance, the fate of Armin’sfamily or the change to Ymir’s teeth when she was a mindless titan). As such,even though Jean never discusses Marco after the Female Titan arc in the manga,I believe that (assuming Isayama does really oversee these extras to a certaindegree) he considers the changes the anime makes to Jean and Marco’s relationshipcanon. However, for better or for worse, I tend to read series as “enclosed”:my rationale is that there’s a coherent story in the manga that stands alone,regardless of what the author says outside of the text or what others add ontoit. In this case, the canon of the manga does not present Marco and Jean asespecially close, to my mind.

All that being said, I think it’s totallypossible to look at the exact same scenes in canon and come to a differentconclusion than I have; I just wanted to specify my parameters. For the intentsand purposes of this discussion, even if Isayama changed the nature of Marcoand Jean’s relationship outside of the manga, it doesn’t automatically have abearing on what is actually shown to us in the text.

And what’s in the text makes me thinkthat Marco may tolerate Jean better than most of the other cadets (the majorityof whom really don’t seem to like him) and vice versa, but there doesn’t seemto be much evidence of a friendship that rivals the bond between EMA or Reinerand Bertolt, for instance. In canon, I think the real shock Jean experiences atMarco’s death is, to borrow Jean’s own words, that Marco was a “goody-goody.” 

Chapter 3.

InAmerica we might jokingly term him an “Eagle Scout”, someone who always has the“right” answers, who gets the grades, and who is generally considered to be apillar of the community. To Jean’s mind, Marco was this kind of person, and yethe still died. If Marco, whom Jean clearly thought of as a leader-type in spiteof his suspicion of authority, couldn’t stand against the titans, anyone couldbe next. It’s a startling moment for Jean because he’s been claiming that he’sa realist who expects the titans to eventually destroy all humans, that it’s betterto just look after yourself because no one else was going to do it, and yetsome part of him still wants to believe in someone more community-minded likeMarco. His decision to join the Survey Corps is predicated on the idea that noone is safe until the titan threat is eliminated, not even someone like Marco,and therefore Jean needs to work with the Corps if he wants to help hiscomrades.

… comrades he might be more attachedto than he previously realized, before Marco’s death.

I think what fandom projects from theanime into the manga is the idea that Jean joins the Survey Corps out of asense of highly personalized loss, but I can’t quite justify that readingbecause Isayama does very little in the manga to establish Jean and Marco’slink as unique and precious to both of them. Jean and Marco only have twoscenes together over the entire course of the manga (the flashback to Marco’s discussion of leadership and the graduation party), and Jean is neverotherwise seen hanging out with Marco during the training sequences (althoughthere are a few flashback panels scattered throughout the later chapters whereJean and Marco will be standing next to each other in group shots; since theycome later in the manga, this looks like more retconning—hard to say!). Instead, his primary companion pre-Trost appears to be this guy:

Chapter 3.

Chapter 17.

Chapter 17. 

We never get a name for Mr. Long-HairedDude, and he only has one line of dialogue. He never appears outside of thesesequences as far as I can remember, and Jean never goes looking for him afterthe events of Trost. Their “friendship” has no bearing on the story, other thanthat it doesn’t appear to be significantly meaningful for either of them,indicating that Jean isn’t really invested in making real friends initially—he thinkshe can do pretty much everything all by himself. It’s a flimsy relationship, lacking in the kind of meaning that will later be teased with Marco and fulfilled with Armin, Eren, and the others. The function this nameless young man serves is to show that Jean is avoiding real connection with his fellows, preferring something shallow and convenient over something more challenging but ultimately more rewarding like a friendship with Marco or one of the others.

The anime replaces thismystery cadet with Marco, adding a closer friendship between Marco and Jeaninto the story, which it then uses to heighten the emotions around Marco’sdeath. From a practical perspective, I understand this move on the anime’spart. Drawing an extra character who doesn’t really do anything is a hassle, and you want to maximize a character’s impact on a story wherever possible. However, this deviation changes the meaning of Marco’s death from what I laid out above,making it more personal. Whereas in the manga the shock is that someone asuniversally beloved and upstanding as Marco dies while someone as “weak” asJean survives, the anime turns it into the death of a particular friend.

Jean expresses surprise that someone like Marco could die, chapter 18.

This move, in turn, brings Jean’smotivations for joining the Survey Corps closer to Eren’s: the anime suggeststhat Jean is interested in seeking revenge for Marco. Although I can understandthat Long-Haired Dude is essentially deadweight, I was also a little annoyed atJean’s story aligning so closely with Eren’s—in the manga, Jean is not lookingto settle a score, but to prevent further death if at all possible. He issurprised at Marco’s death, and then surprised at being surprised: Jean is notthe cynical pessimist he thought he was. He has this more idealistic andhopeful side to him, and this is part of what prompts him to do something “irrational”and community-minded like joining the Survey Corps. In the anime, he startsdown the same slippery slope as Eren, as we can see in the scene where he attacksAnnie’s crystal.

Episode 25, Jean yelling at Annie’s crystal.

As to their actual relationship incanon, I think Jean respects Marco more than a lot of the other cadets(although we learn later that he greatly respects Reiner, Armin, Mikasa, andeven—although he doesn’t want to admit it—Eren) while Marco can sense Jean’sidealistic side and therefore can tolerate Jean better. Consequently, Marco’suntimely death is particularly sad because there is a potential for friendship there that Jean never really acts upon,sticking instead to the company of a guy who appears a little sycophantic (atleast, he listens to Jean’s bragging with a smile), but who doesn’t formulate areal friendship with Jean based on mutual respect. Marco, unlike the othercadets, saw some of the idealism that was actually the core of Jean’s cynicism(he’s trying not to care because he does actually care), and once he’s goneJean perhaps realizes that he doesn’t want to miss out on such an opportunityfor friendship again.

Jean respects Marco, chapter 18.

Marco being kind to Jean, chapter 18.

Jean realizes he’s connected to his fellow comrades, that doesn’t want to lose anymore potential friends, chapter 18.

So, to conclude, if I was going to takea stab at Jean’s cryptic line about burned bones in chapter twenty-three (whichis really confusing because of all the different and, quite frankly, vaguetranslations), I might suggest putting the emphasis on the idea of “identification.”I think Marco’s death makes Jean realize that he doesn’t want to live his lifewithout human connection, to the point where no one would mourn if he died. Alternatively,he could also be suggesting that he sees value in forming relationships andventuring outside the wall with his comrades at his own personal risk, becausethen at least he won’t, in theory, have to mourn them at a mass grave without knowingwho they were or what exactly happened to them. Although Jean retains hiscynicism and suspicion of authority, his prickly personality and his commitmentto being honest, Marco’s death does change him: he realizes that he doesn’twant to live his life without real friends, that looking out for number onedoesn’t necessarily protect him from the pain of loss—he’ll just mourn missedopportunities and “what ifs”, even if he is spared deep personal pain.

“'Tis better to have loved and lost/ Thannever to have loved at all.”- Canto 27, “In Memoriam,” A.H.H, Alfred Tennyson.

Thanks for the note anon! Sorry if my response a bit garbled, I’m still recovering a bit from my quals (… that’s my excuse and I’m sticking to it xD). 

Edit: @julystorms has a good answer to this question (though maybe you are the same anon lol), you can find it here :) We agree that Jean is mourning a potential friendship more than an actual one.

[godsickk]

Really long post (~1100) under the cut about Nina’s intent to die young, her feelings about it, and what Orise (her mother) makes of this. Warning for a suicide mention.

Nina is planning to die young. She spends every moment of her life holding back Zero, and that struggle only gets harder the longer she’s alive; Nina has a realistic idea of just how much longer she’ll be able to keep this up for and has decided that she has, at best, three to five years left before her continued existence becomes too dangerous to be justified (she’s currently twenty-seven). Barring some extreme/completely unforeseen twist of fate, she fully plans to commit suicide or cause her own death some other way, reasoning that since she’s essentially the link between Zero and the physical world, removing herself will remove the threat.

Unsurprisingly, Nina has a lot of conflicting feelings about dying so soon. On one hand, her existence is exhausting to her, on both a physical and soul-deep level, since she’s engaged in a constant battle with a primordial demonic spirit big enough to devour universes. She longs for relief, and knows that death would bring it. Nina also hates Zero with every fiber of her being and desperately wants to be free from them and everything they do to her, which death would also provide. Furthermore, because of what Zero’s done to her and how they’ve affected her, Nina believes that she’s a monster who deserves death, who would do more good by ceasing to exist than by living.

On the other hand, Nina doesn’t want to die, because despite everything, she just loves being alive so much and doesn’t want to stop experiencing what the world has to offer. She’s in love with being alive. In spite of everything Zero’s done to her, she loves them as much as she hates them, and is as terrified at the prospect of losing them as she is desperate to be free. Despite how much Nina hates herself, she also loves herself, and doesn’t want to stop being herself or be anyone else other than her. She hopes against hope that there’s some way she can keep on living, even though she knows it’s in all likelihood impossible and even as another part of her has wanted to die for years.

In the end, though, Nina’s personal sense of duty and justice would have won out, and she would have died right around turning thirty. However, certain events in canon set her on a different path, and while she does still die, the circumstances of her death are different from anything she’d ever imagined.

Orise knows that Nina is planning to die young. To her particular eye, it’s glaringly obvious. Despite being a wealthy, high-status, history-making individual with the potential to create a powerful legacy, Nina has made no long-term investments or other life plans and doesn’t seem like she’s ever going to marry (the traditional marriage age for highbreds is twenty; Nina is twenty-seven and has rejected every single marriage proposal sent her way). She seems to have made no preparations whatsoever for anything resembling old age or retirement. What’s more, Nina has no deep or lasting personal relationships. She hasn’t bothered building a future for herself. To Orise, this all indicates that Nina isn’t planning to live for a long time. She believes that Nina intends to go out young and like a supernova, leaving it up to history and pop culture to remember her instead of genealogy, and she’s pretty much right.

Nina’s intent on dying young is one of the main reasons Orise is keeping the real nature of the justice system a secret, instead of telling her daughter what’s actually going on. She wants to keep Nina for as long as she can, because Nina is very useful to her as a media figure, an enforcer, an advocate for the justice system - the list goes on. By making herself such an iconic, powerful, and controversial figure, Nina has made herself more useful to Orise than even Orise had dared to hope. And in Orise’s opinion, the best way to keep Nina as powerfully useful as she currently is is to let her keep her zealot’s belief in the justice system. To know otherwise - even to doubt - would weaken Nina’s nuclear personality and significantly decrease her power. Orise needs Nina burning bright and righteous, and so she keeps her blind.

Orise knows that if Nina were to find out the truth, it would be a disaster. However, she believes that hiding the truth is ultimately a safer bet than telling Nina. Nina believes so powerfully - so desperately - that Orise thinks it extremely unlikely that she’ll ever find out the truth on her own. She recognizes that her daughter’s belief in justice is based on some kind of intrinsic need, which means it’s that much more unlikely to ever slip or waver. Nina is, to some degree, willfully blind, but her belief and her need to believe go so deep that she’s not even remotely aware of this blindness. Orise by no means thinks it’s safe to keep things secret, but she does think it’s safer than telling Nina, and she thinks that her chances of keeping the secret for the scant handful of years that Nina remains alive are heavily in her favor.

If she were to tell Nina the truth, Orise has no doubt that Nina would explode, and most likely end up sparking off or leading some kind of revolution or violent coup. Nina is as dangerous to Orise as she is useful; her personality applied to a revolution would almost definitely spell the end of Orise’s regime. The only reason Orise hasn’t had Nina killed yet is because she wants to get as much use from her as possible, and she’s actually had plans to kill her own daughter in place for years now, just in case.

(Though of course she has no way of knowing that none of these would work. Just like nobody knows how deep Orise’s web of influence goes, nobody knows the true extent of Nina’s power or how far from human she really is.)

Orise has essentially dismissed her daughter as ‘just another Tauhrelil’ - more dangerous than most, but still just another instance of a bloodline whose most noticeable quirk is an overabundance of geniuses who frequently burn out on their own brilliance at relatively young ages. This dismissal tainting her perception of Nina eventually becomes an important factor in Orise’s downfall.

[vegas-glitz]

The Proper Price reduction Charge For Residential Real Estate Analysis

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The investment decision value of a residence can only be measured towards other investment decision prospects available to an investor. If traders can make 4.5% by investing in govt treasuries, they will demand a bigger return to invest in an asset as risky and as illiquid as household serious estate. The amount of return an trader requires is identified as a "discount charge."

The discounted fee is unique for each individual investor as just about every will have unique tolerances for chance. For the duration of the Good Housing Bubble discounted costs on most asset classes were at historic lows thanks to excess liquidity in capital marketplaces. The discount fee used in the examination is the variable with the greatest effects on the expense benefit. Due to the fact of the threats of investing in household serious estate, a strong argument can be created that a small discount charge is unwarranted and investors would typically demand better costs of return for assuming the inherent pitfalls. A small lower price price exaggerates the investment top quality and makes an investment surface extra beneficial, and a large discounted charge underestimates the expense high quality and would make an financial investment look considerably less worthwhile.

The US Office of the Treasury sells a products referred to as Treasury Inflation-Safeguarded Securities (Tips). The principal of a Recommendations improves with inflation, and it pays a semi-once-a-year fascination payment giving a return on the financial commitment. When a Suggestions matures, they customer paid out the altered principal or original principal, whichever is increased. This is a risk-free of charge expenditure guaranteed to mature with the amount of inflation. The level of desire is very very low, but since the principal grows with inflation, it gives a return just over the rate of inflation. Residences have historically appreciated at just around the rate of inflation as well thus a danger-totally free financial commitment in Guidelines delivers a very similar rate of asset appreciation as residential true estate (about 4.5%). Inspite of their similarities, Ideas are a much more fascinating expense simply because the benefit is not pretty volatile, and Suggestions are substantially less difficult and a lot less costly to buy and provide. Residential authentic estate values are notoriously volatile, particularly in coastal locations. Houses have superior transaction expenditures, and they can be extremely tricky to sell in a bear current market. It is not ideal to use a 4.5% rate similar to the generate on Strategies or the rate of appreciation of residential actual estate as the price cut price in a proper value analysis.

Yet another easy low cost rate to use when examining the price of residential actual estate is the curiosity fee on the loan applied to purchase the home. Borrowed funds costs dollars in the sort of interest payments. A homebuyer can pay down the financial loan on the assets and receive a return on that funds equivalent to the fascination on the bank loan as cash not spent. Getting rid of curiosity price supplies a return on financial commitment equal to the curiosity rate. Interest prices throughout the Great Housing Bubble on 30-yr fixed-price mortgages dropped underneath 6%. An argument can be produced that 6% is an...appropriate low cost rate nevertheless, 6% interest costs are around historic lows, and interest fees are very likely to be better in the long term. Curiosity charges stabilized in the mid 80s after the spike of the early 80s to quell inflation. The regular contract mortgage desire level from 1986 to 2007 was 8.%. If a discounted fee matching the loan interest price is utilized in a benefit analysis, it is more correct to use 8% than 6%.

Traders in residential serious estate (people who devote in rental home to attain cashflow) generally disregard any resale price appreciation. These buyers want to get money from rental in excessive of the expenditures of possession to give a return on their financial investment. In spite of their distinctive emphasis for acquiring a return, the lower price charges these buyers use might be the most ideal simply because it is for the same asset course. Cashflow investors in rental real estate have by now discounted for the threats of rate volatility and illiquidity. Historically, buyers in cashflow producing actual estate have demanded returns of in the vicinity of 12%. In the course of the Terrific Housing bubble, these premiums declined to as lower as 6% for class "A" flats in particular California markets. It is possible that lower price premiums will increase back to their historic norms in the aftermath of the bubble. If a discounted price is employed matching that of cashflow investors in residential real estate, a charge of 12% need to be utilised.

As soon as funds is sunk into residential authentic estate, it can only be extracted as a result of borrowing, which has its very own fees, or sale. Dollars set into household actual estate is funds taken away from a competing investment. When consumers are going through a hire compared to have choice, they may possibly decide on to lease and place their down payment and expenditure top quality into a absolutely distinct asset course with even higher returns. This cash could go into superior yield bonds, current market index cash or mutual funds, commodities, or any of a wide variety of superior-risk, superior-return financial investment autos. An argument can be built that the price reduction price ought to approximate the prolonged-phrase return on higher generate alternate investments, maybe as superior as 15% or 18%. Though an individual trader may perhaps forego these investment options to purchase residential authentic estate, it is not suitable to use lower price charges this significant mainly because numerous of these investments are riskier and far more unstable than household genuine estate.

The discounted price is the most vital variable in assessing the expense price of household real estate. Arguments can be manufactured for fees as reduced as 4.5% and as substantial as 18%. Low lower price rates translate to higher values, and superior costs make for minimal values. The extremes of this array are not proper for use for the reason that they characterize choices investments with different hazard parameters that are not equivalent to household serious estate. The most ideal low cost charges are among 8% and 12% mainly because these depict possibly credit rating expenses (fascination premiums) or the amount used by qualified true estate traders.

Supply by Lawrence D Roberts

[painted-heart-blog-blog]

OUTLIERS – Malcolm Gladwell.

OUTLIERS – Malcolm Gladwell.

20191003

PART 1- OPPORTUNITY

Chap 1: Matthew effect

-          Success equals accumulative advantages

-          An example of best hockey players, coincidently they were all born from Jan- Mar. This is because eligibility cut-off is Jan. 12 month gap in age represents an enormous difference in physical maturity. To become professional hockey players, they start training at very young age of 9-10 when the physical different is so clear. The administration system locks children into patterns of achievement and underachievement since a very young age.

Chap 2: The 10.000- hour rule (Ericsson)

-          Achievement is a sum of talent and preparation.

-          The closer psychologists look at the careers of the gifted, the “smaller the role preparation seems to play”.

-          10.000 hours of practice is required to achieve the level of mastery associated with being a world-class expert in anything. It takes the brain this long to assimilate all that it needs to know to achieve true mastery.

-          Practice isn’t the thing you do once you’re good. It’s the thing you do that makes you good.

-          10.000 hours is an enormous amount of time. One is impossible to reach that number all by himself. One needs extraordinary opportunity to put in those hours practicing. This is where parents’ encouragement, support, money is to help.

-          What truly distinguishes their histories is not their extraordinary talent but their extraordinary opportunities.

Chap 3: Trouble with genius 1

-          Chris Langan – super IQ

-          Lewis Terman- Termites young geniuses were tracked, tested, measured and analyzed over the course of time).

-          A very common assumption of Terman and school systems “ there is nothing about an individual as important as his IQ except possibly his morals”.

-          The relationship between success and IQ works only up to a point (120). Once someone has reached an IQ of somewhere around 120, having additional IQ points doesn’t seem to translate into any measurable real-world advantage”.

-          One needs to be smart enough not smartest.

-          If intelligence matters only up to a point, then past that point, other things- things that have nothing to do with intelligence must start to matter more.

-          Intellect and achievement are far from perfectly correlated.

-          IQ- converge thinking, Creativity- divergence.

Chap 4: Trouble with genius 2

-          Practical intelligence – Robert Sternberg : Knowing what to say to whom, knowing when to say it, and knowing how to say it for maximum effect.

-          Read situations correctly and get what you want.

-          IQ is analytical ability, in genes or innate ability

-          Practical intelligence or social savvy is knowledge. It’s a set of skills that have to be learned. Mainly from family (parenting)

-          2 main types of parenting: follow accomplishment of natural growth, concerted cultivation

-          Concerted cultivation – an attempt to actively foster and assess a child’s talents, opinions and skills. From which, children learn a sense of “entitlement”, act as though they have a right to pursue their own individual preferences and to actively manage interactions in institutional settings. They know how to customize whatever environment they were in, for their best purposes.

Chap 5: Three lessons of Joe Flom (successful lawyer, founder of Skadden Arps)

Joe Flom’s background: Jewish immigrants, father- union organizer in garment industry, public school

-          Lesson 1: The importance of being Jewish, being different from the rest went into business for yourself and took whatever came in the door- whatever legal work the big downtown firms did not want for themselves. – hostile corporate takeovers as it was considered scandalous.

-          Buried in that setback was a golden opportunity

-          20 years Flom perfected his craft at Skadden Arps, the world changed and he was ready. He didn’t triumph over adversity. Instead, what started out as adversity ended up being an opportunity.

-          Lesson 2: Demographic luck

-          Avoid cataclysmic events of the 20th century: great depression, world war 2

-          New York: public schools of the 1940s were considered the best schools in the country. Brilliant teachers who couldn’t get the jobs they wanted, and public teaching was what they did because it was security and it had a pension and you didn’t get laid off.

-          This dynamic benefited the members of that generation when they went off to college.

-          Magic timeline  for lawyer – born in early 1930, software programmer 1955, entrepreneur 1835

-          The most gifted of lawyer, equipped with the best of family lessons, cannot escape the limitations of their generation.

-          Lesson 3: The garment industry and Meaningful work.

-          Late 19th century: the garment trade was the largest & most economically vibrant industry in the city.

-          Jewish immigrants arrived at the perfect time, with the perfect skills: trading, hardworking

-          To exploit that opportunity, you had to have certain virtues, and those immigrants worked hard. They scarified and saved and invested wisely. The economy was desperate for the skills that they possessed.

-          Meaningful or satisfying work has to fulfill 3 things: autonomy, complexity, a connection between effort and reward. “Hard work is a prison sentence only if it does not have meaning”.

-          Children of these garment workers learn the same lesson – a lesson crucial to those who wanted to tackle the upper reaches of a profession like law or medicine: if you work hard enough and assert yourself, and use your mind, imagination, you can shape the world to your desires.

-          These children become professionals because of their humble origins not in spite of their humble origin.

PART 2- LEGACY

Chap 6: Harlan, Kentucky “Die like a man, like your brother did”

-          Harlan, Kentucky is very remote an lawless.

-          Violence- culture of honor. The culture of honor tend to take roots in highlands and other marginally fertile areas, such as “Sicily, Basque regions of Spain”

-          Rocky mountainside – can’t farm. Herdsman’s under constant threat of ruin through the loss of their animals. Therefore, they become aggressive and willing to fight.

-          While farmers depend on the cooperation of others in the community.

-          Culture of honor is a world where a man’s reputation is at the center of his livelihood and self-worth. (murder rates are higher, crimes of property lower). One fought over his honor not economic gain.

-          Cultural legacies are powerful forces. They have deep roots and long lives. They persist, generation after generation, virtually intact, even as the economic and social & demographic conditions that spawned them have vanished.

-          They play such a role in directing attitudes & behavior that we cannot make sense of our world without them.

Chap 7: The Ethnic theory of plane crashes

-          High rates of flight crash in Korean airlines, different from American airlines.

-          2 different cultures: uncertainty avoidance (most reliant on results and plans, stick to procedure & tolerate ambiguity

-          Each of us has his or her own distinct personality, but overlaid on top of that are tendencies and assumptions & reflexes handed down to us by the history of the community we grew up in.

-          Power Distance Index (PDI)- power distance is concerned with attitudes toward hierarchy, specifically with how much a particular culture values & respects authority.

-          High power-distance communication works only when the listener is capable of paying close attention, and it works only if the 2 parties in a conversation have the luxury of time, in order to understand each other’s meaning.

-          When we understand what it really means to be a good pilot- when we understand how much culture and history and the world outside of the individual matter to professional success- then we don’t have to throw up hands in despair.

-          We have a way to make success out of the unsuccessful.

Chap 8: Rice paddies & Math tests

-          Chinese proverb: “No one who can rise before dawn three hundred sixty days a year fails to make his family rich.”

-          Rice farmers improved their fields by becoming smarter, better managers their own time, making better choices – skill oriented.

-          Number naming system is easier à Asian children learn to count much faster than American children who grow rice have always worked harder than almost any other kind of farmer.

-          On contrary, hunter-gathers had a pretty leisurely life.

-          The life of a rice farmer is similar to the life of garment Jewish workers in NY: meaningful and clear relationship between effort & reward.

-          The harder you work a rice field, the more it yields. A complex work and autonomous.

-          Lesson: the genius of the culture formed in the rice paddies is that hard work gave those in the fields a way to find meaning in the midst of great uncertainty & poverty. That lesson has served Asians well in many endeavors but rarely so perfectly as in the case of mathematics.

-          The secret to learning mathematics: success s a function of persistence and doggedness and willingness to work hard for 22 minutes to make sense of something that most people would give up on after 30 seconds.

Chap 9: Marita’s bargain – KIPP (rice paddies pattern into American public schools)

-          KIPP: a public school which is famous for math high scores. KIPP children are randomly selected, from disadvantageous background, don’t have long summer vacation, start a day early.

-          The problem with math education is sink-or swim approach. Everything is rapid fire, kids who get it first are the ones who are rewarded.

-          KIPP introduced another approach of teaching math at lower space. “I think that extended amount of time give you the chance as a teacher to explain things, and more time for the kids to sit and digest everything that’s going on, to review, to do things at a much slower pace.

-          Slower pace means more retention, better understanding of the material, make math meaningful (to let the students see the clear relationship between effort & reward).

-          Marita- a KIPP student has had to do the same because the cultural legacy she had been given does not match her circumstances either. Her community does not give her what she needs.

-          She made a bargain, escaped the constraints of their cultural legacy.

 ð  Everything we have learned in Outliers says that success follows a predictable course. It is not the brightest who succeed. Nor is success simple the sum of decisions and efforts we make on our own behalf. It is, rather, a gift. Outliers are those who have been given opportunities -and who have had the strength and presence of mind to seize them.

[beardeddragontank]

Here Is How Affectionate Bearded Dragons Really Are

Wait, what? Reptiles and affection? Well, as surprised as you may be, reptiles are fully capable of displaying emotions, including an affectionate demeanor. In this post we will be focusing on bearded dragons in particular, gauging their ability to showcase affection.

Are bearded dragons affectionate? Bearded dragons are among very few reptiles that display affection. They easily warm up to their owners and eagerly look forward to their presence. Moreover, their consistently gregarious behavior in the company of their owners is a sure shot sign of their affectionate disposition.

In this post, we will look at a variety of behaviors that confirm the affectionate nature of bearded dragons. Every instance would be based on real life examples where people have actually seen for themselves the affectionate nature of bearded dragons so make sure you read on till the end.

Pace of Displaying Affection

A major aspect that stands out in the case of bearded dragons is the pace with which they begin to display affection. To give you an example, when we first started feeding our brand spanking new member of the family – a bearded dragon of course, she very quickly associated our coming to her habitat, with the fact that she would be fed.

In turn, she started showing signs of warmth and affection towards us quite fast.

This is unlike a lot of other animals – reptiles especially; either do not show any signs of affection as such or take a fair bit of time to bond. In this instance, which we have noticed with many other bearded dragons as well, the speed with which a bond was formed with owners was really rapid.

Voluntary Keenness on Handling

Another aspect which is a clear sign of the affectionate nature of bearded dragons is the way they voluntary seek handling, often taking the initiative on their own. For instance, even before you have extended your hand to your bearded dragon, it would start making attempts to get on it – in anticipation of being handled.

This kind of behavior is unlike most other reptiles that prefer to shy away from being handled. You might notice that in spite of repetitive handling sessions, many reptiles – snakes being a good example, prefer to just shy away.

At best they might “tolerate” being handled but nothing more. But with bearded dragons, it’s a whole new ballgame where they are really happy to be handled and will even volunteer for that!

The More Time you invest – Greater will be the Affection!

While reptiles, in general, show little if any emotion, leave alone affection, some reptiles (like bearded dragons in this instance), do manage to show a reasonable amount of affection or at least some form of attachment.

Snakes, for instance, are known to get fairly comfortable with their handlers over time. They will not try to bite them or make the hissing sound which they usually do whenever they perceive a threat.

So as you can see, time spent with reptiles is of the essence; with bearded dragons – as we outlined in a previous section, in fairly less amount of time, you can gain greater confidence of your pet.

It is in that context that we make our point here – the more time you spend with your bearded dragon, greater will be the affection that it will display towards you.

Actions such as:

Petting your beardy

Letting it comfortably walk over you

Feeding it at certain fixed times such that it gets a cue of being fed

Treating it with food which you have noticed it relishes more

All of these actions will ultimately contribute towards accentuating the bond between you and your bearded dragon. So make sure that you frequently spend time “interacting” with your bearded dragon.

At the end of the day, greater the time invested, higher will be the returns in the form of accelerated and intense affection from your pet. As a corollary, if you remain aloof, you will unlikely be privy to much affection from your beardy.

Affection increases with Age

With bearded dragons, age makes a significant difference as far as display of affection is concerned. Typically, the younger your bearded dragon, especially if it is in its initial stages – perhaps even an infant, the lesser will be its affection. Instead, it will be jittery and will not appreciate being handled.

This is completely due to the nervousness that it feels at the outset in your foreign presence. As your beardy gets older, it recognizes that you are not a threat – and in fact a trustworthy “friend”. At this juncture, the affection shown towards you will be incrementally higher.

The Way they Display Affection Varies

As a new (or prospective) bearded dragon owner, you must keep in mind the fact that beardies do not showcase their affection the same way; instead, it varies considerably from one bearded dragon to another.

We ourselves have seen instances where one pet owner had their bearded dragon curl up to them every time it was handled while in another instance, their bearded dragon was happy to prepare itself in anticipation of being handled, and once that was done, would happily prance around the owner’s arms and shoulders.

Putting Off your Bearded Dragon

While it is fairly easy to form a bond with your bearded dragon, some callous owners end up turning off their bearded dragon. Examples of such irresponsible behavior include:

Handling their beardy very roughly

Holding it by its tail

Playing loud music or making loud noise, in close proximity to the bearded dragon’s habitat

Actions like these will turn your beardy off you, and chances of a strong bond forming will diminish unless the reckless behavior is done away with quickly and replaced with warmth towards your pet.

Remember that like their reptilian cousins, bearded dragons can also get agitated if handled poorly like in the above-mentioned instances. They can then puff up their big beards in aggression; the last kind of behavior you want to see in your pet.

Also, poor handling is quite likely to cause stress in your bearded dragon, which in turn will lead its own set of detrimental impacts, including the completely undesirable one of your beardy falling ill.

Conclusion

Domesticated bearded dragons have clearly come a long way from their natural habitat down under, to show definite signs of affection. While back “home” in Australia they would be quite comfortable by themselves, once in the midst of new owners, they warm up fast and display the affectionate side of their personality quite quickly.

Related Questions

Now that you have a clear perspective on whether bearded dragons are affectionate (of course they are!), you might also want to know:

Do bearded dragons like being petted? Yes, bearded dragons enjoy being petted! Try petting one for yourself and see – the expression of sheer content in its eyes will say it all! Of course, there may be exceptions to the rule but by and large, bearded dragons do enjoy being petted.

Can bearded dragons recognize their owners? Yes, bearded dragons do recognize their owners. Bearded dragons are especially sensitive to the touch and smell of their owners, and can distinctly recognize those facets fairly quickly, with each feeding or handling session reinforcing their ability to recognize.

[whittlebaggett8]

A Free and Open Indo-Pacific: The South Korean Perspective

The idea of a “free and open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) means many various items to diverse regional stakeholders in Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, the Indian Ocean Location (IOR), Australia, the United States, and the European Union.

Viewed as as an extension of the U.S.-led Asia-Pacific protection principle to the Indian Ocean location, its realization is nebulous. No regional electric power can predominate during the IOR, which encompasses 3 U.S. Locations of Operational Accountability (AORs): Indo-Pacific Command, Central Command, and Africa Command. Indo-Pacific Command was beforehand acknowledged as Pacific Command, and this renaming has provoked significant operational and cooperative confusion: does it imply a new mission for this AOR?

And why are the phrases “Free” and “Open” now being used to the sea routes of the Indian Ocean, which have seldom been constrained by maritime threats? Freedom of navigation there has only been disrupted by the 1980s Iraq-Iran War, often by the Sri Lanka Civil War, and by the extra recent difficulty of Somali pirates.

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The reason for the new language is surely China. Its expanding naval prowess and its wide financial job regarded the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are each underpinned by China’s wide-ranging historical claims. In addition to obtaining a foothold in some of littoral and archipelagic states of the near IOR, China also aspires to develop into Africa and outside of.

China’s inspiration remains unclear, even so. Is it merely aiming to come to be a regional electricity all-around the IOR, establishing China-helpful regimes in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Central Asia, and the Middle East and perhaps to foment difficulties for Europe and the United States in Saudi Arabia and Iran? Or does China intend a critical ideological problem to the existing regulations-primarily based buy by forming consumer-states and promoting an autocratic buying and selling routine that disrupts liberty of navigation?

Other than flexibility of navigation, main tenets of the U.S.-led worldwide buy, in the IOR and in other places, consist of respect for the rule of legislation, countrywide sovereignty, open up marketplaces, and common democracy. On the other hand, the United States seems a lot less concerned these days about preserving the IOR’s liberal buying and selling regime and its process of mutual security assurance. China, meanwhile, makes use of grandiose (and really dubious) historic claims to justify its expansionism, both equally financial and military services. Obviously, there is a manifest danger to FOIP.

South Korea’s Function in FOIP

South Korea has extended been deeply associated in the prevailing strategic strategy of the Asia-Pacific, but is significantly fewer comfortable with the conceptual remapping which the United States is now pursuing as a result of its vision of FOIP. The Indian Ocean is an historic sphere of desire for South Korea, with financial and political interaction among the Korean and Indian Peninsulas going back far more than 2,000 many years Korea also has historical backlinks to Arabia and Europe.

The phrase “Indo-Pacific” in South Korea has been debated because U.S. President Donald Trump’s point out stop by to South Korea in 2017, when Washington included it in a joint assertion about regional peace and security, surprising Seoul. At the time, the time period was comprehended as referring to countermeasures in reaction to the increase of China, and South Korea, supplied its geographic position and strategic constraints, has been always ambivalent on these kinds of language. The prospect, now, of an specific method to realize FOIP, is even a lot more difficult for South Korea, with policymakers and stability analysts keenly debating whether or not it is just a controversial psychological mapping, or an overarching grand method for the area. Seoul’s most well-liked interpretation can be seen from Indian Primary Minister Narendra Modi’s the latest state take a look at to South Korea, from February 21 to 22, 2019, throughout which the agenda focused on economic and protection cooperation, not on FOIP for each se.

From a South Korean viewpoint, FOIP is just a recasting of the maritime safety agenda, and it is not evident how South Korea could make a contribution to any grand strategy. Safeguarding the Sea Lanes of Conversation (SLOC) in the IOR has normally been the principal emphasis, and therefore significantly has typically targeted on terrorism and the impact of climate modify. On the former situation, the 27th Chenghae Naval Job Device is dedicated to anti-piracy patrols off the eastern coastline of Africa, in spite of the weighty calls for for the South Korean navy in deterring North Korean maritime threats and on the latter problem, the present sea routes will keep on to predominate, regardless of the risk of the Northern Sea Route opening up.

In distinction to the current minimal profile of South Korea, Japan has revealed significantly much more enthusiasm for the strategy of FOIP, implementing the so-known as Diamond Strategic Alliance structure amongst the United States, Japan, Australia, and India via the revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad) on maritime cooperation.

Some critics have minimized South Korean passions in the IOR as constrained to anti-piracy operations. But if the ongoing North-South Korean dialogues continue on to prosper, and if relations amongst the United States and North Korea boost, then South Korea may possibly be predicted to play a additional dynamic function as an rising key stakeholder in sustaining FOIP.

South Korea enjoys a lot of positive aspects from freedom of navigation in the IOR, and some of South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s suggestions, this kind of as the New Southern Policy, can be quickly built-in with U.S. strategic interests on FOIP. Nonetheless, it is not uncomplicated to identify the implementation of FOIP as a central concern in South Korea’s economic interest. The United States has redefined its strategic fears by shifting its military services objectives from the Asia-Pacific to the Indo-Pacific, but this is of small direct relevance for South Korea.

Findings and Plan Suggestions

If the United States meant FOIP to efficiently counter Chinese expansionism, it seems to be as well small way too late. Aside from the Quad, other new FOIP procedures consist of the Indo-Pacific Economic Partnership and the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act, but these look trivial in comparison to China’s enormous BRI task and the ever-growing Chinese army presence in the IOR. If China intends for its infrastructure investments to persuade governments getting its largess to abandon the prevailing liberal financial get and transform to more transactional and authoritarian trading and power-source interactions, then the United States is building no severe endeavours to avoid this.

If Washington decides to try out more difficult to maintain FOIP, then some methods are feasible, and other individuals are unhelpful. Feasible ways contain: multilateral strategic engagement with anxious countries to assist the world principles-primarily based purchase many multilateral steps to safeguard maritime security and good purchase in the Indian Ocean, aiming to set up a widespread strategic narrative concerning IOR insiders and outsiders by striving to protect free of charge and open up SLOC as well as supporting democratic establishments and societies close to the IOR and formalizing a established of mutual obligations to make sure a legal ideal of flexibility of navigation at sea, primarily based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

Unhelpful techniques incorporate: any speedy containment or immediate confrontation, with China or any other nation, a great deal considerably less physical conflict or certainly war any interpretation of FOIP that tends towards an progressively mercantilist and nationalist stance, with a much more combative navy (this cure would be worse than the illness) and treating FOIP as only relevant to the IOR, when the underlying ideas should really of class be prolonged to the complete Asia-Pacific location.

I would suggest a couple plan-oriented recommendations. Initial, the area has to build a prevalent comprehending of FOIP this really should be articulated in phrases of geography and/or strategic implications. At existing, key stakeholders disagree on the scope of FOIP. The United States applies FOIP from the South China Sea to the western AORs of the Indo-Pacific Command, whereas India and ASEAN insist that FOIP should really be of equal strategic worth in the Asia-Pacific area — FOIP need to utilize from the Gulf of Aden to the Pacific coast of the United States.

Next, the U.S.-led multilateral biannual RIMPAC workouts should be held throughout the IOR, alternatively of just in the Asia-Pacific location. As a great initially move, RIMPAC 2018 provided the navies of Sri Lanka and Israel for the to start with time. The Chinese navy really should also be invited once again, to market maritime security cooperation. In addition, the exact same argument applies to other multilateral maritime security routines, this sort of as Workout Malabar, which ought to also invite the Chinese navy. FOIP ought to not be authorized to devolve into an justification for rival blocs to face off against one particular another.

3rd, China must show its goodwill by not utilizing the IOR as a pivot to expand its naval existence even further, to the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean, the Black Sea, or the Baltic Sea. China should also exhibit its theoretical and functional knowledge of the world wide guidelines-based mostly purchase in the IOR, by complying with prevailing norms to preserve maritime very good purchase and safety. China should take treatment to make certain that its ambitions in the IOR are not misinterpreted as the militarization of location, since the regional response to any such over-assertive steps would possible be counterproductive. If China so chooses, FOIP can turn out to be protection for all stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific location, rather than a instrument designed particularly to impede China.

In summary, the terms “free” and “open” must be observed as beneficial and ideal for the IOR. If some stakeholders discover them uncomfortable, then they should reconsider their have steps and intentions in the area.

Captain Sukjoon Yoon, ROK Navy retired, is a senior fellow at the Korea Institute for Armed forces Affairs.

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