#bayesian

[arctic-hands]

I'm having a hard time mustering up sympathy for the type of people who died on one of the world's largest superyachts

[avalonishere]

[malbecmusings]

Even before al the bodies have been recovered, the blame game is in full swing over Perini Navi's 55m Bayesian that went down in a storm off Porticello, Sicily. I read this morning the chief of the group that owns Perini Navi came out swinging, putting the blame squarely on the crew.

There's a good technical analysis from designer Chris Feers below the cut.

TL;Don't want to read: Monohulls of all stripes are designed to survive a knockdown; Perini's engineering is some of he best in the world. Bayesian had a retractable keel which could shorten her 32' draft to 12'. With the keel extended, meaning she had full use her counterweight, she would have been able to right herself in a full knockdown. Even if her mast were below the waterline, even if she lost her mast, maybe more so if she lost her mast, assuming she was watertight, her design would allow her to self recover. With the keel retracted tho, her righting moment would be dramatically less. If she wasn't watertight, a knockdown would be unrecoverable and she would, as she did, quickly end up on the bottom of the ocean.

I have so many questions. We won't know the full story for a bit but seven people losing their lives should have been an avoidable outcome.

This is a one in a million tragedy but we should examine the facts and learn from them. Bayesian boasts the second highest mast in the world at 75 metres on a length of 56m. She has a lifting keel to enable her to get into shallow areas. Fully down it gives a draft of 9.83m and raised a draft of 4m. A sailing yacht has a keel to counter the heeling moment generated by the power of her sail plan. I’m sorry to say that size matters to a superyacht owner and naval architects are seduced into providing solutions. As yacht size increases the resistance of the hull reduces in proportion, so less sail area is required to adequately power longer yachts. But these floating fashion items are driven by appearance and bragging rights - and you lose prestige if someone has a bigger mast than you. Always the status pecking order questions are – how big – how fast – what cost – and is it black? If you designed Bayesian with a reasonable sail area and a ‘normal’ mast she would not look impressiive – which is what superyachts have to be.

The stability of a yacht has to be sufficient to counter the power of the rig but, as mast heights increase, the keels can often become so deep that the places of interest are restricted hence the lifting keel solution. Stability comes from two factors – the hull form and the ballast keel which acts like a pendulum. As the yacht heels the volume of the immersed hull section produce a buoyancy force which resists heeling. Initially the keel gives little force but as the angle of heel increases ‘physics’ makes the keel contribution significant (leverage). The greater the keel length, the greater the effect. The combination of the hull buoyancy on the heeled side and the keel on the ‘windward’ side produces the force necessary to keep the yacht from capsize. If the keel of Bayesian was retracted it would lose a significant six meters of moment arm or leverage from its probable 200 tons of keel bulb. When we design yachts we calculate the stability, or righting lever, as a function of heeled ‘bouyancy’ force and the ballast moment arm combined. (the GZ) This can be plotted on a graph to show the stability at any heel angle and identifies the angle at which stability becomes negative causing the yacht to capsize.

Normally an ocean yacht will experience a negative point at about 120 degrees of heel. With a lifting keel this point is greatly reduced maybe to less than 90 degrees. If Bayesian was at anchor with the keel raised and no sail up the crew would have every confidence that she could remain safe in most normal wind conditions. Every captain at this level has passed an exam on stability and would be aware of his vessels stability graph.

Many years ago I sat at Cremorne and watched a spiralling williwaw race across Sydney harbour and pass through Mosman. This twister was only about 30 metres wide but it destroyed houses and overturned cars in its path. A few feet away nothing was harmed.

The power of a twister is intense and powerful with the wind is coming from every direction. This was what hit Bayesian. The problem of large rigs is windage, even with no sails. But this yacht had three furling sails forward and a big boom with the weight of a furled mainsail inside all above the centre of gravity. Also there were a few communication domes on the spreaders.

We use a wind pressure coefficient to measure the force of the wind on the rig and sails. Even without sails the WPC for Bayesian must have been pretty large when hit by a wind force of varying direction with a local velocity way above the norm. Once she was knocked down beyond her stability limit with the keel up she stood no chance and, laying flat to the water, her deck openings would have allowed a flood of water aboard and she would founder. This would happen in a couple of minutes.

The observation of a lightning strike can be discounted because these vessels are grounded and any damage from a strike would have caused a slow sinking at worst – not a capsize and founder.

The individuals within a professional crew with sailing experience may have sensed the wind and motion of the vessel and quickly reacted to instinctively save themselves in the seconds they had. My guess is that some were already on deck alarmed by the general conditions.The guests would have found themselves totally disoriented in flooding cabins, in darkness with the walls, doors and passageways at ninety degrees to the norm. They had practically no chance because it would be completely beyond their experience. The crew would have been unable to be of any help due to the speed of the unexpected event.

I have been a professional yacht designer and builder for fifty years specialising in lifting keel yachts. My son, a professional navigator, was Third Officer on a ketch superyacht with masts 100m tall; a yacht so big, at 88metres, that it was almost beyond human handling even with the machinery on board. But of course it is the biggest and most expensive’ etc etc. What we have here is a one off accident which is a wake up call to an industry where common sense has departed as yachts get more silly in size and design.

In summary Bayesian was caught in the wrong place at the wrong time. A freak accident which the designers and crew would have little chance to predict.

If the keel had been down she would have probably survived the knock down. But without sails up the crew would have experience of her basic stability for normal conditions which would have felt adequate. Any enquiry must examine the design factors such as the stability vanishing point in the condition she was at the time of the accident; keel up, tank loadings and rig factors for windage (WPC) and centre of gravity etc. And a calculation of the wind force required to heel the boat to 90 degrees in the condition at the time of the accident.

All forms of transport have had these unpredictable one off events leading to changes of regulations and professional practice. Titanic, Boeing, 1955 Le Mans, the 1952 Farnborough crash, the 1979 Fastnet – all have made a difference and these events all came unpredicted and out of the blue often at a time of complacency.

Chris Freer – yacht designer – August 2024

[foolishmortal]

"Eyewitness accounts cited a waterspout — a highly localized spiraling storm that’s essentially a marine tornado"

my good pal Captain Nemo strikes again

[noneun]

Sembra che l'equipaggio dello yacht Bayesian...

... abbia imparato nella maniera più tragica i limiti dell'inferenza bayesiana. Ovvero che, per quante volte sei arrivato in porto senza problemi, è solo molto probabile che lo farai anche oggi: non c'è nessuna garanzia che la prossima volta le tue probabilità di sopravvivenza non colino a picco...

[haute-lifestyle-com]

Italian officials have initiated a manslaughter investigation into the mysterious sinking of the mega-yacht Bayesian, a half mile offshore from the fishing village of Porticello, near Sicily, Italy, in a burst of violent weather, that killed seven passengers

[curiositasmundi]

L’affondamento dello yacht del magnate britannico Mike Lynch comincia a evidenziare alcuni dettagli che alimentano seri sospetti sui contorni della morte sua, del boss della Morgan Stanley, Johnatan Bloomer, del loro avvocato di fiducia e delle rispettive mogli nelle acque di Porticello a Palermo. Non è certo un dettaglio che ben sei agenti speciali britannici si siano precipitati sul posto per capire – o per coprire? – quello che è accaduto.

In primo luogo c’è la morte, appena quattro giorni fa, del numero due dell’azienda di Lynch, Stephen Chamberlain, investito mentre faceva jogging a Stretham, in Gran Bretagna. Chamberlain lavorava come direttore operativo per la società di sicurezza informatica Darktrace, legata al magnate Lynch.

In secondo luogo Lynch era uno squalo della finanza soprattutto nel settore sensibilissimo della cybersicurezza e dunque anche della cyberwar. E in questo settore i punti di contatto con il mondo dell’intelligence e del lavoro sporco sono innumerevoli.

[...]

Darktrace, azienda di sicurezza informatica fondata dal magnate britannico Mike Lynch – una delle sei persone disperse nel naufragio avvenuto ieri a Porticello, nei pressi di Palermo – ha rapporti consolidati con l’intelligence israeliana. Darktrace è ben nota ai servizi segreti internazionali, italiani compresi, ma ha stretti rapporti, in particolare, con quelli israeliani che, secondo una fonte interpellata da “Agenzia Nova”, hanno utilizzato i sistemi dell’azienda britannica per individuare alcuni dei massimi dirigenti di Hamas.

Lynch, noto anche come il “Bill Gates britannico”, ha avuto un ruolo importante nella nascita di Darktrace. La società, infatti, è stata fondata nel 2013 a Cambridge, da matematici ed esperti di difesa informatica di Invoke Capital, altra impresa di proprietà proprio di Lynch.

[...]

’estate scorsa Darktrace aveva presentato sul mercato Heal, il suo nuovo strumento che sfrutta l’intelligenza artificiale per facilitare la fase cosiddetta di “incident response”, ovvero la capacità di rilevare e gestire gli attacchi informatici in modo da ridurre al minimo i danni, i tempi di recupero e i costi totali.

Lo scorso primo marzo l’azienda ha annunciato la nascita di Darktrace Federal, una nuova divisione al servizio del Dipartimento della Difesa degli Stati Uniti, della comunità di intelligence, delle agenzie civili federali e delle infrastrutture critiche nazionali per rafforzare le loro capacità di proteggersi dagli attacchi cyber.

In Darktrace Federal lavorano esperti in materia di sicurezza ed ex membri dell’intelligence statunitense che hanno guidato le operazioni informatiche presso la Cia e fornito assistenza all’Agenzia per la sicurezza nazionale (Nsa) e al Pentagono. Un annuncio che non sorprende, ma che anzi conferma la stretta vicinanza fra l’azienda fondata da Lynch e la comunità internazionale dell’intelligence.

È notizia dello scorso 26 aprile, invece, l’acquisizione di Darktrace da parte del fondo d’investimento statunitense Thoma Bravo per 5,32 miliardi di dollari. La trattativa era iniziata nel 2022 ma aveva subito una battuta d’arresto a causa di una serie di difficoltà nei negoziati fra le dirigenze delle due aziende. Thoma Bravo ha visto l’acquisizione come un’opportunità per rafforzare la propria esposizione nel mercato della sicurezza informatica: d’altronde, il fondo Usa possiede già diverse aziende che operano nel comparto, come Sophos, Proofpoint, Ping Identity e SailPoint.

Per Darktrace, invece, l’acquisizione potrebbe rappresentare un’opportunità di crescita e innovazione: un’operazione “win-win” come si dice in questi casi. Non sempre, tuttavia, sono filati lisci i rapporti fra le società legate a Lynch e gli Stati Uniti. L’imprenditore britannico, infatti, lo scorso giugno era stato scagionato – non senza sorprese – da un tribunale di San Francisco dalle accuse di frode e falso in bilancio presentate da Hewlett Packard. Lynch, infatti, aveva venduto al colosso statunitense del settore high tech, Autonomy, altra società informatica da lui fondata ma era stato accusato di aver gonfiato il valore della società prima della transazione.

Una vicenda che durava da ben 13 anni, quella del contenzioso fra Lynch ed Hewlett Packard che, tuttavia, si era conclusa nel migliore dei modi per l’imprenditore britannico che in questi giorni si stava godendo una vacanza con la famiglia in Italia. La vacanza, però, ha assunto toni decisamente drammatici in seguito del naufragio in Sicilia dello yacht che ospitava, complessivamente, 22 persone.

[...]

[ukdailymail]

CCTV - Moment Bayesian yacht disappears during storm in Sicily

[eltristanexplicitcontent]

56m SailingYacht Bayesian

[lindahall]

John Canton – Scientist of the Day

John Canton, a British mathematician and schoolmaster, was born July 31, 1718, in Stroud, Gloucestershire. 

read more...

[psycheapuleius]

[thetimehorse]

The Green Pill Secret: I'm Always Right

Welcome everyone to a new episode of the Green Pill Secret, coming to you from right here in Reston, VA. This week is all about being right. Which is to say I’m not always right, and neither are you! The point really is to understand that if you always have to be right, then you’re going to have issues long term with people who hold different beliefs trusting you. And likewise, if you’re with…

[pier-carlo-universe]

Giuseppe Tecce torna in Germania per presentare "L’inaffondabile": il romanzo che racconta la tragedia del Bayesian

Un tour letterario tra Colonia, Duisburg e Dusseldorf per il primo libro ispirato al misterioso affondamento del veliero di lusso

Un tour letterario tra Colonia, Duisburg e Dusseldorf per il primo libro ispirato al misterioso affondamento del veliero di lusso A pochi mesi dalla sua ultima visita, lo scrittore Giuseppe Tecce è tornato in Germania per un tour letterario che ha portato alla ribalta il suo nuovo romanzo, “L’inaffondabile”, scritto insieme ad Attilio D’Arielli e pubblicato da Graus Edizioni. Il tour, iniziato…

[marcopuggini-blog]

Naufragio del Bayesian - L’inaffondabile: Il Romanzo che Svela Nuovi Misteri!

[channeledhistory]

[...]

Italian Prosecutors who have opened up a criminal probe into multiple charges of manslaughter and negligent shipwreck think the 56-meter (184-foot) yacht, the Bayesian, may contain highly sensitive data tied to a number of Western intelligence services, four sources familiar with the investigation and salvage operation said.

Lynch was associated with British, American and other intelligence services through his various companies, including the cyber security company he founded, Darktrace.

That company was sold to Chicago-based private equity firm Thoma Bravo in April. Lynch, whose wife’s company Revtom Limited owned the vessel, was also an adviser to British prime ministers David Cameron and Theresa May on science, technology and cyber security during their tenures, according to British government and public Darktrace records.

The sunken vessel, lying on the seabed at a depth of some 50 meters (164 feet), is thought to have watertight safes containing two super-encrypted hard drives that hold highly classified information, including passcodes and other sensitive data [...]

[...]

“A formal request has been accepted and implemented for additional security of the wreckage until it can be raised,” an official with the Sicilian civil protection authority who is assisting with the criminal investigation confirmed to CNN.

Lynch, his 18-year-old daughter Hannah, American attorney Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda, British banker Jonathan Bloomer and his wife Judy, and the yacht’s onboard chef Recaldo Thomas died when the ship sank in a violent storm in the early hours of the morning.

[...]

Some of the 15 survivors, of whom nine were crew members and six were passengers, including a 1-year-old girl, reportedly told prosecutors that Lynch “did not trust cloud services” and always kept data drives in a secure compartment of the yacht wherever he sailed, a source with the prosecutor’s office told CNN. [...]

Morvillo represented Lynch when he was acquitted in a criminal fraud case in the US in June tied to the takeover by Hewlett Packard of his software company Autonomy, and survivors told investigators that the cruise was a celebration of that acquittal, according to the assistant prosecutor, Raffaele Cammarano. Though Lynch was acquitted of any criminal wrongdoing in the US, Hewlett Packard has indicated it will not drop its bid to collect a $4 billion civil payout from Lynch’s estate, awarded by a British court in 2022.

In what appears to be a tragic coincidence, Lynch’s business partner Stephen Chamberlain — who was his co-defendant in the US fraud case and the former chief operating officer of Darktrace — died on August 19, the same day the Bayesian sank, after being hit by a car while out jogging two days earlier. A spokesperson for the prosecutor’s office told CNN that Cutfield told them Lynch had learned of Chamberlain’s serious condition and had planned to cut the cruise short to return to the UK to see his business partner, who had been on life support.

The Bayesian sank a few hours before Chamberlain died in the hospital, his lawyer said. [...]

[cherryblossomshadow]

Okay okay but to be fair here we did sacrifice two billionaires to him he better help #oceangate #that other yacht that sunk a while back (comment and tags courtesy of @enkinegio) The Bayesian

.

This is my kind of jam. Don't refute the bullshit directly, undermine its very assumptions. The government controls the weather, this is bad and we should do something to them. Vs The government controls the weather, they're in league with the gods and therefore unchallengeable. (comment courtesy of @galileoace)

.

I saw a tweet along the lines of "climate change deniers will argue against the collective human effect on the climate gradually accumulating over time, but when the bad consequences (with years of warnings and gradually worsening weather) finally arise, they'll suddenly believe that humans do have the power to alter the weather, but this time it is at will and instantaneous." And that is just. Incomprehensible to me. I know the cult mindset of many of these people literally has programmed their brains to believe their so-called leaders, but that's like akin to believing the Easter Bunny is real but Beyoncé is somehow a myth. The limit of human psychology is the real phenomenon here 😩 #twitter #us politics #democrats #republicans #climate change (comment and tags courtesy of @guardianspirits13)

.

…Okay. But can we dissect the brain-rot here? Let's say--hypothetically--the Democrats do have the power to create (and aim!) hurricanes. How the fuck does that help them in an election? Seriously, I am so worried they're going to fumble the response and fuck up their chances, when I shouldn't even be thinking about an election when so many lives are in immediate peril. Does twitter!OP really have that much faith that the current leadership can handle an emergency? In which case--why the fuck are they voting Republican? Or do they believe the hurricane is just…going to kill enough Trump voters to swing the election? That's. I don't even have the energy to unpack that. My point is--as a conspiracy theory, this isn't even internally consistent! #conspiracy theories #can confirm this is a legit belief going around right wing circles btw #alex jones has been making hay out of a patent for a weather control device (comment and tags courtesy of @itsladykit)

Image description beneath the cut:

[Images ID and source: Tweet from HatsforBaTS (@/hats_for_bats) reading:

I'm voting for the party that has bent the sea to its will.

In response to a tweet from Kandiss Taylor (@/KandissTaylor), reading:

The weather can and is being manipulated. Wake up. Stop being ignorant or plain stupid. There’s no such thing as coincidences. The most important election in the history of America is 30 days away. PRAY! GA voting has been compromised and don’t know if we will be able to get all our early voting days in. Now, a hurricane is coming straight for Florida. These two states are necessary for a Trump victory! No coincidence. God hides lions inside of sheep. I know you’re in there somewhere. Make the terrified to cheat! This is our Nation to lose or ours to KEEP!

Beneath the quoted tweet, is a "Readers added context" note reading:

The weather cannot and is not being manipulated the way the OP described it. Also, this is hurricane season, a naturally occurring weather scenario. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hrd_sub/modification.html https://www.servicemasterrestore.com/blog/weather/when-does-hurricane-season-start-end-/

.

Image 2:

🔰🧦B.J McLeod's Strongest Solider (@/LiveFastSimp)

Democrats have made a pact with a divine entity, and you want me to vote against them?

Nick Peterson (@/TheTechEng)

Poseidon says "Vote Blue No Matter Who"

Feraligator Enthusiast (@/FeraligatorGuy):

All this tells me is that Republicans refuse to come to the table and make reasonable deals with Dagon, Great Lord of the Eternal Sea, and that speaks to me, as a swing voter, as an indicator that they do not hold my important American value of compromise at heart.

.

Image 3:

therealDonkeyKong (@/KonkyDong18)

I’m getting word that Kamala Harris’s Secretary of Defense will likely be the god of the sea himself, Poseidon. America’s enemies don’t stand a chance against the ocean itself.

ko-fi.com/racecarlock (@/Racecarlock)

Harris/Walz/Poseidon 2024.

CatMom (@/alisha_ann94)

This is essentially saying we're voting for Kamala the Last Airbender, which I'm 100% behind.