#inference

[kx0e-idv]

doodles

[philosophybits]

From causes which appear similar, we expect similar effects. This is the sum of all our experimental conclusions.

David Hume, An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding

[crimson-and-clover-1717]

There’s a little interaction between Stede, Olu and Zheng in 203 just prior to the Revenge reappearance. It doesn’t propel the narrative, but rather presents an aspect of Stede’s characterisation. It goes like this:

Olu to Stede: Yeah, the Captain’s [Zheng] got a bit of a packed schedj, mate…

Stede: I’m sure she does (picks up abacus). This is weird, isn’t it? Musical (shakes it).

And this little scene just makes me cry. Stede just does not have the social skills to understand the nuance here, and therefore does not follow up with expected behaviour i.e. leaving! And as someone who is probably a little neurospicy, I might’ve done something similar. Continued to hang around. Probably have played with the abacus too…

It’s such a small scene, but it tells us so much about Stede’s neurodiversity* and lack of understanding of social cues. But he’s also amazingly empathetic and intuitive when it comes to Ed; gets things so right in the 204 couch scene and the 205 YWFTW hand-hold. He also cares deeply for the crew, and is often shown to be the emotionally intelligent character in a situation. He’s so layered and complex. I just want to shout from the rooftops how amazing he is.

He doesn’t always understand social typicality. But Stede Bonnet helped me forgive myself for thinking I ever did anything wrong.**

*If you don’t read Stede as neurodiverse, I’m happy for you. But please don’t come and ‘correct me’. I’m not interested ** I’ve done many things wrong, just not these things

[alcrego]

Portals

Doubt | Dialogue | Question | Trial | Inference

Gif series, August 2021.

Video version.

Music by Coio.

[sirenjose]

Truth & Inference - Gambler in the Spotlight Trailer Analysis/Thoughts

I love how it portrays Ronald as sweating to show his nerves over going out on stage (why would they show him sweating and taaking a deep breath like this otherwise considering no one else can see him at that time?). It contrasts quite well with how we then see how confident he becomes once he’s Gambler.

We also see him pull a golden gun out of a holster on his waist. Which is the same one we see being used later in the trailer.

He’s clearing been doing well since we last saw him in Golden Rose Theater (and he even has a car like that somehow, but I’m not going to start asking questions about time period here).

And I know some saying all these shots may just be fan service, but what I appreciate them for is giving us a good look at his scars (which I’m hoping we can say are essentially the same ones he has in the main story version too).

2 along his left shoulder, 1 of which is quite large that goes across a portion of his chest as well, 1 on his left arm a bit above or near his elbow, and 1 on the lower left part of his chest.

And we could also see the scar on his face is quite large and goes pretty high.

We then see a shot of him at a party with DM. So still implying he’s at least knowledgeable of DM (beyond just knowing him from Golden Rose Theater, though how much so isn’t clear). The gun is also not in his holster, but I wonder if that’s because it wouldn’t be allowed at a party like this.

Then there’s the scene of him at a casino. I wonder if this could be tied to wherever he was with DM and/or why he was there. Maybe DM asked him to do something for him, or maybe this is something he’s doing on his own. Again, no info here.

But he is hold a suitcase, which reminds me of the one Tuberose was holding in another trailer. But that one had a very obvious Melodis family symbol on it, while inside was likely 1 of DM’s experimental drug things, while Norton’s does not have that symbol (or color). That and the men Norton is fighting against look very similar to the same ones we see Qilin/Wu Chang fighting, the ones that are sided with Tuberose and thus DM.

So I wonder if the casino we see Norton at was owned or controlled by DM and/or the Melodis family, and Norton was fighting against them. If so, maybe that could mean the man we see sneaking into Norton’s room, as well as the note we see on Norton’s table under the gold gun came from them (DM/Melodis family). That or, if they’re sneaking into Norton’s gun, it could be someone with a personal grudge of some sort.

Maybe not, but consider what happens later in the trailer, it seems likely that whatever that note said, it was likely a threat or warning of some kind. That would explain why someone wanted to take Norton’s gun and kill him with it. Maybe because of whatever was in his suitcase (maybe he stole it from someone at the casino, or from DM, or somewhere else. I have no idea, just throwing out various ideas).

Maybe he had brought the suitcase to the casino because, maybe like in Stormy Night Surprise, some party wanted to make a deal for whatever was in it or wanted to take it. Or maybe he got the suitcase while at the casino or whatever and whoever else was there didn’t want to let him leave with it. I wish we had more info.

Maybe he was stealing 1 of DM’s drugs. Maybe he was doing something similar to what we see implied by Gatto’s trailer and story.

Anyways. We have no idea how someone snuck into Norton’s room, but it’s curious that, despite their ability to do so, they didn’t try to kill Norton while he was vulnerable and defenseless in the shower. For some reason, he saves it until during the performance Norton is holding at the theater later. It’s possible there was a reason why he wanted to do that. Maybe it was part of the ultimatum. Or maybe there was a specific reason why he wanted to do it there. Maybe because he’d have an audience there to witness the deed if he did kill Norton. Or maybe he wanted to try to ruin Norton while he was on stage. But it’s curious whatever the motivation was.

While he’s in the shower, we get a shot of his back, which gives us a different perspective for some of his scars. We see the ones on his shoulder, and that 1 large one goes pretty far up and down its back. It looks kind of deep.

But we also see another scar, this time in the shape of an X, sort of right where his back right shoulder blade is.

There might be another further down the right side of his back, but maybe not. It’s hard to tell.

After his shower, we see him holding some kind of medal with a star on it. And in the mirror in front of him, as we see him likely put it in his left breast pocket (which will be important later), we see an image of his past self, when he was still in the military. The time period that’s been referenced and alluded to since the Atropos’ Ropes event, when we learned, Naib, Norton, Jose, and DM were all in the military together.

The medal, considering the image of his past self, likely came from his time in the military.

And speaking of his past self, we see he has quite a few bandages on him. One covering his right eye (even though we know his large scar is over his left eye? I’m not sure if it’s a different injury or a mistake), then quite a few covering his chest and left arm.

We can also see some symbol on his right shoulder. Potentially for whatever group they were a part of while they were in the military.

Maybe unnoteworthy, but Norton’s past self looks like he had been running, based on the position he’s in as if he’s catching his breath.

The scene then changes, returning to the theater. Norton has something in his hands. I believe he is tearing up the note we saw in his room earlier, the 1 under the gun that was likely a warning or threating message.

It’s also interesting as there’s no way Norton wouldn’t notice the fact that his gun has gone missing. But he still acts as if nothing is wrong as he goes up on stage.

It’s also likely that this is the reason why Inference, Jose, and Truth are present at the theater during his performance. Possibly as backup in case something does happen, or to simply help get the bad guy. Inference is likely trying to do an investigation (possibly a subtle one as Inference has no idea who is the threat and wouldn’t want to alert them), while Truth is watching things from backstage.  Jose is likely the reason for the police presence at the theater at the time and the one managing all of them.

We even see Mary and Frederick watching the performance from above.

And it’s from backstage that the man who stole Norton’s gun appears, but Truth is looking away so fails to notice him sooner. There’s no real identifying characteristics beyond the untucked shirt and somewhat nice looking shirt. I wonder if he’s someone who’s from the higher (rather than lower) class, somewhat rich, but may has fallen on hard times somehow based on his disheveled appearance, and this guy for some reason sees Norton as potentially causing his trouble most likely.

The lady Norton is dancing with (at least at first glance for me) was very reminiscent of Bella (before taking a longer/closer look). I don’t know if that was intentional, but considering what happens later in the trailer while Norton is at the theater, I wonder if it was done on purpose to evoke parallels to what occurred during Atropos’ Ropes).

Maybe I’m looking too much into it, but the lady seemed shocked just like everyone else in the theater at the appearance of the gun-wielding man. This same feeling seems to continue it seems, when she seems a bit surprised when Norton suddenly begins moving them once more.

He shields her by moving her behind an obstacle before sending her further away to safety. His skills have very likely improved quite a bit since he was acting the role of Ronald.

Once he’s alone, he gets the man’s attention, taunting him, to lure him further away from the audience but also higher up on the stage.

The audience is likely still in shock and, especially with Norton’s behavior, is still unsure if this is real or just another part of the performance (likely to keep them from panicking or knowing there’s anything actually seriously wrong).

Jose though is clearly aware and is sending the police in.

Inference, on the other hand, isn’t looking. It’s hard to tell what he’s thinking (why he’s so invested in what he’s looking at, unless he’s aware this is serious but knows he can’t do anything and needs to leave it to the police).

It’s taking the police time to get to where Norton and the man are.

And despite the situation he’s in, Norton is still appearing to be completely calm.

The man’s hands are shaking as he’s pointing the gun. If he’s still having to take the time to get the nerve to do it, maybe that could explain why he didn’t try to shoot Norton earlier rather than simply follow him up the stairs. Or maybe he didn’t care since he believed he was in control because he was the one with the weapon while Norton was unarmed.

The man finally takes a shot but Norton manages to mostly keep out of the way, only suffering a scratch. His agility may also reflect his training and experience as former military.

Norton charges then forces the gun to right where his heart is.

Despite the situation, Norton is still as confident as ever. Maybe because he knows that medal is right there in his pocket. But I wonder if he knew if that medal would truly save him, but as an actor, his confidence in his skills or confidence in his luck, or because he was happy no matter what happened.

Speaking of his soldier training, I noticed the placement of his finger on the gun, and how he lifts that finger out of the way right before the gun goes off. I wonder if he purposefully was blocking the gun from firing until he had the gun pointed exactly where he wanted it to be. If he was in the military, he’d know his way around guns.

Once he’s shot, we see Norton falling while images of many points in his past appear, from when he was a child, to his time in the military, and even Ronald one more time.

We can also see an image of Norton in the military along side Naib and Jose. Jose and Naib being here with Norton would also go along with Jose's comment back from the previous event about how Inference ranked below him in the military, but someone else was ranked number 1. Based on the image, it seems like Norton was first.

The angel in the background feels quite fitting (thematic?) in the scene as Norton falls.

We then finally see Inference showing concern and moving towards the stage, as does Jose, the police, and parts of the audience.

We can also see a badge on Jose, which I think should be the same sort of badge that is on Farfara for the British police

Fortunately, Norton is still alive. The area on his jacket where the gunshot went off blackened, but that’s it.

The audience, based on the way they’re cheering Norton, could possibly still think this is all part of the performance. Or they’re just cheering that he’s actually alive despite how it looked.

The police are then able to take the man into custody.

Jose and Inference clearly looked surprised (but relieved) to see Norton is ok (despite the fact he just fell from a great height even if he wasn’t shot).

We see a newspaper article about the event, and that plus the way Norton was shot while higher up on the stage before falling, not to mention the way the lady he had been dancing with earlier was at least somewhat similar in appearance to Bella from a quick glance makes me wonder if the parallels to Atropos’ Ropes was on purpose. The difference here being that Norton didn’t die. Maybe this helps the theater better move past the day of Bella’s death by having this happen. Or maybe he’s somewhat putting on this very similar show as a nod to his performance with Bella (maybe like how he put the 2 coins on Benny’s eyes in his 6th letter after Benny died, this could be like that but for Bella. I don’t know. Just thinking different ideas).

The trailer ends with Norton staring at the badge that took the bullet for him. A badge he earned while he’d been in the military. So I guess he sees that badge as good luck, and maybe that’s part of the reason why he decided to bring it with him before the performance, which worked in his favor.

He has bandages on him, so despite how he had been acting before, he is likely still suffering some pain.

We also get another look at his back, and there is indeed another, fairly long scar in the bottom right and side of his back, under the “X” shaped scar on his back.

(I'll edit this later for any mistakes I made)

[doublel27]

We’ve really lost the art of inferential storytelling huh?

I mean not actually the storytelling. The people telling the stories are still expecting it of their audience. But like people picking up on the inferential messaging and use of character action instead of dialogue that exists within the story is getting smaller and smaller.

[butterflies-and-mirrors]

why would u say this and then turn around and describe ur encounter with Desire like this--

"Our eyes met, and I saw the elegant curve of his lips rise" Mr. Inference sir you are in a Detective novel not a coming of age romantasy

D.M THIS GAY HOE

"Flashed a knowing smile at me" "May the stars bestow their blessings upon us" Do yall bitches know your gay asses arent the only ones in the room.

[chawawanya]

surv infey brainworms

[waxdream]

I think if I was in Flatland, my orientation would be West facing. I would be upright in that situation, and in order to see eye to eye with a fellow west facing person, one of us would have to be upside down. Unless you subscribe to the book and not the film, so your eye would be in the centre of your side, and your mouth in the centre of your opposite side. Though that assumes even sides... I wonder if having an odd amount of sides would be slightly awkward? Like, your mouth wouldn't be parallel to your eye. So that brings us back to the orientation problem. And so, if I was perhaps a Heptagon, I would be west facing. I wonder if there's a social divide between east and west facing flatlanders? It would only effect every other generation though... but it might effect the triangles more, we do know that triangles have strict class divides based on angles after all. Then again, I'm taking a very 3D approach here. Upside down probably doesn't matter to Flatlanders, it would instead be 'does your voice come from my north, or my south?'. Would that matter? To a society where your lower class is only able to feel their way around, I bet it would. It could be a quick distinction, assuming two flatlanders are seeing eye to eye. Would they even know they were eye to eye? I'd assume they would, they have the ability to feel after all. But perhaps not, and if so, maybe it wouldn't matter in the lower classes, and only the upper classes who are trained in sight recognition. It could be like a life hack you use to determine odd or even sides, and then you triangulate to estimate angles. Perhaps like a party trick among high sided society - I bet there's a flatlander out there who can spot a Triacontagon by sight.

Of course, I'd be a chromatist line segment who identifies as a circle haha, so it wouldn't matter to me.

(The chromatism movement assigned line segments and circles the same paint colours, which can be read in the book as either 'women being put on a level with Gods' or perhaps, 'God is a man with the aspects of a woman', or my personal favourite being 'chromatist line segments are all trans men assassins with God Complexes'. When read under the eye of protofeminism, this book is awesome haha)

[dk-thrive]

The ten seconds that pass between sight and inference will serve to her as evidence that time is a human construct, that it can slow or accelerate in the presence of emotion, of chemicals in the blood.

― Liz Moore, The God of the Woods: A Novel (Riverhead Books, July 2, 2024)

[unscramblerer]

Todays Word Of The Day is: Conjecture

Conjecture originates from the Latin conjectura(guess). English usage of the word began in the 14th century.

[wasznu]

prompt caffeination

[philosophybits]

Animals are not guided in [causal] inferences by reasoning: Neither are children: Neither are the generality of mankind, in their ordinary actions and conclusions: Neither are philosophers themselves, who, in all the active parts of life, are, in the main, the same with the vulgar, and are governed by the same maxims.

David Hume, An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding

[peterbordes]

(via AI inference chip startup Groq closes $640M at $2.8B valuation to meet next-gen LPUs demand)

Groq, a leader in fast AI inference, has secured a $640M Series D round at a valuation of $2.8B. The round was led by funds and accounts managed by BlackRock Private Equity Partners with participation from both existing and new investors including Neuberger Berman, Type One Ventures, and strategic investors including Cisco Investments, Global Brain’s KDDI Open Innovation Fund III, and Samsung Catalyst Fund. The unique, vertically integrated Groq AI inference platform has generated skyrocketing demand from developers seeking exceptional speed.

[lisabet35]

📍 shimla, himachal pradesh

"he looks like art, in the form of a poem."

[sirenjose]

Predictions for The Voyage of Oceanus

(I made guesses last year for the Zinaida event and managed to correctly guess Andrew was the culprit/killer before it was revealed, so I wanted to try to do that again this year before we got too much info or any answers)

Main Predictions

Frederick is the antagonist (as in he will be the cause of the events that occur during this event or at least a contributor to some degree)

The jellyfish toxins will be the cause of everyone going crazy/behaving abnormally and whatever hallucinations they see (ex: my guess is it is the reason behind Alice's behavior and what she said she saw to Inference)

Charles will be involved in whatever incident Inference has to solve but won't be the actual true culprit (this is a guess based on Charles' backstory, as his actions indirectly lead to the (accidental) death of his friend. As it was indirect, that's why I guess in this event Charles will either be falsely suspected to be the culprit or may play a minor role in what happens but he won't do anything super bad, at least on purpose)

Violeta may seem dead but may not actually be truly dead (based on how she likely survives in canon after Joker leaves her to die in the snow, and how I wonder if she'll be involved in the "guest performance" referenced in Mike's 3rd letter)

Side Notes/Predictions

That agreement Branley had many of the personnel aboard the ship on his voyage sign is suspicious, the same one that Mr. Worthington didn't have to sign as he wasn't part of the "core personnel". Secretive agreements usually imply something up. "Trying to hide their research discoveries" feels like whatever they found out could be important, and the crew 25 years later will likely discover whatever it was considering Inference makes a comment about doing so during the event. Not sure yet about this, just wanted to call out it's suspicious and stood out to me.

Speaking of suspicious, there's also that letter from whoever provided Inference with his disguise. No idea who this is. I did try to think about who it could be, but many of my guesses didn't feel quite right (I wondered about Wu Chang, but we know nothing about him or why he'd help. There's Paranormal Detective, but he wouldn't do something like this. There's Fiona, who does do disguises, but I'm not quite sure. There's White, but like Paranormal Detective, as Inference knows him, I doubt he'd do something in this fashion. My big random guess is DM, even if just because he'd get a laugh out of making Inference dress in the type of outfit Inference detests. That and DM seems to be the reason Inference gets involved in a lot of the cases we see during these anniversary events. So yea, he's so far my first guess, but who knows.)

Frederick was the "benefactor" to spend a "huge amount of money" building this copycat ship and getting all the exact details, down to the roles people play, as similar as possible. So with how long he spent to prepare this, it contributes to the idea that Frederick could be behind whatever incident occurs during this event aboard the ship.

I don't quite know why, but for some reason Keigan mentioning the "blue jellyfish pendant" stood out a lot to me. (Honestly I at first didn't really read everything, but I paused after seeing that mentioned). Not quite sure why, but reading it made me wonder if whatever this was would be important, or if it appearing or disappearing would be important for this event. I actually reread everything after that, which was when I realized it belonged to this "Professor Schelling". It was only then that I made the connection "Hey, Frederick's S-tier has blue jellyfish themes all over his outfit". Maybe if Frederick was tied to this Schelling person, that could explain why he'd put so much effort into recreating this ship and voyage. Then from there, I noticed it mentions Schelling's "acedemic achievements" weren't "directly inherited", with his children being "too young" to learn anything of "scientific value". Not "directly inherited" makes me think of Frederick in canon who didn't inherit his family's musical talent. And I had to reread the children bit twice to realize it's not saying he didn't have children. He did, they were just too young. So his children were the ones that didn't "inherit" that stuff from the previous line. Ergo, Frederick might be the kid of this Professor Schelling. So even if he wasn't very knowledgeable about science initially, considering the science books in his room, it seems he might've tried to fix that, potentially similar to Frederick trying to be a famous musician despite not having the same musical skills as his family. If Frederick is recreating what happened 25 years ago, and his father was involved, maybe he's trying to prove he is just as good as his father? I'm also thinking of parallels to Frederick in canon and why he's going after the Blue Hope gem...

Similar to how I wonder if Orpheus drugs the participants by including it in their meals, I wonder if the jellyfish toxins will poison people by being included in people's meals. Frederick did mention it can affect people if ingested. That would potentially mean Demi might be working with Frederick, since she prepares people's foods. Considering how Demi seems to be working with the manor owner and her roles in other events, this wouldn't surprise me too much. Her name is "Siren" after all, so this sort of role, especially if she's giving people toxins that could cause hallucinations like a siren's song might, seems fitting for her codename.

The mention of electromagnetic fields reminds me of some of the research/theories I wrote regarding Jose, as I remember discussing how electromagnetic fields, like what is mentioned in Wu Chang's letters regarding events during Jose's game, can affect compasses, which can lead to people getting lost, which I remember due to my research regarding Jose's Bobolink skin (bobolinks are birds that can navigate via electromagnetic fields, and will fly in the wrong direction due to mesing with those fields). I remember the event mentioned Inference's clock being frozen at 6:30. I wonder if this'll be important somehow. (I also just find all the potential connections to stuff I did for Jose funny and had to call it out. Works out I already did all this research so I know about some of this already ^_^')