#eurozone economy

[awesome-casuallyfamouscollector]

With this enlargement, the eurozone now has 347 million inhabitants. The European Commission has stressed that the new currency is a "tangible symbol" of the "opportunities" offered by the EU - which Croatia joined in 2013 - and will also facilitate travel and trade.  On the other hand, the Schengen zone will be extended from this Sunday to 420 million people who will be able to travel freely and without border controls. This is the eighth enlargement of this alliance established in 1985, although it is the first in eleven years(..)

P.S.  Very good news! EU has quite powerful and big market,  who causes envy and concern among competitors. The European market is sufficiently strong to successfully repel the attacks of any competitors and dictatorial enemies. The Brexiters were really stupid when they left the EU’s single market…

  Of course, the British economy will continue to function, but in a sense, UK’s economic growth opportunities will be almost similar to the end of the 1960s and the beginning of the 1970s, or very limited and sluggish...

[tradermade]

The ECB cuts interest rates by 0.25% as inflation cools. Explore https://markets.tradermade.com/breaking/ecb-cuts-rates-by-025-as-inflation-cools. The Eurozone economy seeks a boost. The implications for the #Euro and future interest rate trajectory are crucial.

[usnewsper-business]

Greece emerges from a decade of financial crisis #debt #economy #eurozone #financialcrisis #Greece

[watchdogclue]

#Credit Suisse share dropped , SWISS bank to provide financial aid

[usaitbari]

Euro 2022 winner Alessia Russo on making history, inspiring a generation and that viral backheel goal | CNN

Euro 2022 winner Alessia Russo on making history, inspiring a generation and that viral backheel goal | CNN

Euro 2022 winner Alessia Russo on making history, inspiring a generation and that viral backheel goal Alessia Russo burst onto the scene in her first major tournament capturing the media’s attention with her stunning improvised backheel goal against Sweden in the semifinals. Russo has been speaking with CNN about why England’s Euro exploit could prove be the springboard for further Lionesses…

[kneedeepincynade]

Probably wasted words but leader of the free world xi Jin ping reminds once again to the west that the US proxy war will also destroy Europe

The post is machine translated

Translation is at the bottom

The collective is on telegram

⚠️ XI JINPING A CHARLES MICHEL: "QUANDO LE PORTE DELLA CITTÀ SONO IN FIAMME, ANCHE I PESCI NELLO STAGNO SOFFRONO", E L'UE DOVREBBE ESSERE APERTA AL DIALOGO E ALLA SOLUZIONE POLITICA AL CONFLITTO RUSSO-UCRAINO ⚠️

🇪🇺|🇨🇳 Oggi, 1 dicembre, Charles Michel - Presidente del Consiglio Europeo - ha incontrato Xi Jinping - Segretario Generale del Partito Comunista Cinese a Pechino.

💥 In un contesto internazionale turbolento, Xi Jinping ha affermato che è nell'interesse comune della Cina e dell'Europa mantenere buone relazioni, e perseguire - nonostante le differenze - con la Cooperazione a Mutuo Vantaggio (合作共赢) 🌺

⭐️ Il Presidente Cinese ha menzionato a Charles Michel la recente scomparsa del Compagno Jiang Zemin, ricordando che l'ex Presidente della Repubblica Popolare Cinese (1993 - 2003) aveva sempre attribuito grande importanza allo sviluppo delle relazioni tra la Cina e l'Europa, visitando molte volte numerosi paesi europei, e mantenendo aperti i canali del dialogo e della cooperazione.

💬 "Porteremo avanti la sua eredità - ha dichiarato Xi Jinping - e continueremo a lavorare per consolidare e sviluppare le relazioni sino-europee"

🇨🇳 Dopodiché, Xi Jinping ha esposto a Michel i principali temi del 20° Congresso Nazionale del Partito Comunista Cinese, nonché le "Cinque Caratteristiche della Modernizzazione Socialista della Cina", e che - in un periodo in cui molti paesi stanno ripensando a quale strada percorrere - la Repubblica Popolare Cinese continuerà a seguire la Via del Socialismo con Caratteristiche Cinesi 🚩

💬 "Seguiremo la Via del Socialismo, applicheremo una Filosofia di Sviluppo incentrata sulle Persone (以人为本), rimarremo impegnati ad approfondire la Riforma e Apertura, rimarremo fermi nel perseguire una Politica Estera che sia Indipendente e di Pace e promuoveremo lo sviluppo comune, verso la costruzione di una Comunità con un Futuro Condiviso (命运共同体)" ⭐️

🇨🇳 La Cina - ha sottolineato Xi Jinping - non cercherà mai l'egemonia, e questo è il solenne impegno politico del CPC, che riflette la volontà di oltre 1,4 miliardi di Cinesi.

🇨🇳|🇪🇺 Il Governo Cinese spera che l'Unione Europea possa condurre relazioni positive con la Cina scongiurando le interferenze esterne - come quelle degli USA, che vorrebbero convincere i paesi europei ad apporre limitazioni e sanzioni alla Repubblica Popolare (❗️)

🤗 "La Cina rimarrà aperta alle aziende europee, e ci auguriamo che l'UE possa rimuovere le interferenze esterne al fine di fornire un ambiente commerciale equo e trasparente per le Aziende Cinesi"

🔥Sul tema del Conflitto Russo-Ucraino, il Presidente Cinese ha proposto una soluzione con mezzi politici, in quanto in linea con gli interessi comuni di tutti i paesi dell'Eurasia, e che è necessario evitare l'escalation e l'espansione della crisi, vigilando sull'errata politica - di matrice statunitense - del confronto tra blocchi" ⚔️

🤥 Tuttavia, all'Unione Europea - completamente asservita agli USA - non interessa la pace o la ricerca di una soluzione politica, e i principali politici europei continuano a soffiare sul fuoco del conflitto.

📉 Le conseguenze del Conflitto Russo-Ucraino sono visibili in tutto il mondo, dalla devastazione delle economie europee alla ricostruzione delle politiche di scontro tra blocchi, generando sofferenza ovunque, ed è per questo che Xi Jinping si è rivolto a Michel in questo modo:

💬 "C'è un Antico Detto in Cina: "城门失火，殃及池鱼", ovvero - "quando le porte della città sono in fiamme, anche i pesci nello stagno soffrono" - ed è per questo che la Cina ha sempre sostenuto una soluzione politica al Conflitto, sostenendo ogni tentativo di dialogo fornito dalla Russia, poi sempre rifiutato dal Regime di Kiev,diretto dagli USA.

🧾 Fonte

🔺China Daily: "La NATO è un relitto della Guerra Fredda e il Conflitto Russo-Ucraino è colpa della NATO"

🔺Sventato dalla Cina un viaggio del Direttore dell'Intelligence Europea a Taiwan

🔺Wang Yi: "La Cina sosterrà fermamente la Russia nel superare le difficoltà e nel rafforzamento del suo status di grande potenza"

🌸 Iscriviti 👉 @collettivoshaoshan

⚠️ XI JINPING TO CHARLES MICHEL: "WHEN THE GATES OF THE CITY ARE ON FLAME, EVEN THE FISH IN THE POND SUFFER", AND THE EU SHOULD BE OPEN TO DIALOGUE AND POLITICAL SOLUTION TO THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT ⚠️

🇪🇺|🇨🇳 Today, December 1, Charles Michel - President of the European Council - met Xi Jinping - General Secretary of the Communist Party of China in Beijing.

💥 In a turbulent international context, Xi Jinping said that it is in the common interest of China and Europe to maintain good relations, and to pursue - despite their differences - the Cooperation for Mutual Benefit (合作共赢) 🌺

⭐️ The Chinese President mentioned the recent passing of Comrade Jiang Zemin to Charles Michel, recalling that the former President of the People's Republic of China (1993 - 2003) had always attached great importance to the development of relations between China and Europe, visiting many times many European countries, and by keeping the channels of dialogue and cooperation open.

💬 "We will carry on his legacy - said Xi Jinping - and we will continue to work to consolidate and develop Sino-European relations"

🇨🇳 After that, Xi Jinping told Michel the main themes of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China as well as the "Five Characteristics of China's Socialist Modernization", and that - at a time when many countries are rethinking which way walk - the People's Republic of China will continue to follow the Road of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics 🚩

💬 "We will follow the Way of Socialism, apply a People-Centered Philosophy of Development (以人为本), remain committed to deepening Reform and Opening-up, remain steadfast in pursuing a Foreign Policy that is Independent and Peaceful, and promote common development, towards Building a Community with a Shared Future (命运共同体)" ⭐️

🇨🇳 China - Xi Jinping stressed - will never seek hegemony, and this is the solemn political commitment of the CPC, which reflects the will of over 1.4 billion Chinese.

🇨🇳|🇪🇺 The Chinese Government hopes that the European Union can conduct positive relations with China by avoiding external interference - such as that of the USA, which would like to convince European countries to impose limitations and sanctions on the People's Republic (❗️)

🤗 "China will remain open to European companies, and we hope that the EU can remove external interference in order to provide a fair and transparent business environment for Chinese companies"

🔥On the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Chinese President has proposed a solution by political means, as it is in line with the common interests of all the countries of Eurasia, and that it is necessary to avoid the escalation and expansion of the crisis , watching over the wrong policy - of US origin - of the comparison between blocks" ⚔️

🤥 However, the European Union - completely subservient to the USA - doesn't care about peace or the search for a political solution, and the main European politicians continue to fan the flames of the conflict.

📉 The consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict are visible all over the world, from the devastation of European economies to the reconstruction of policies of confrontation between blocks, generating suffering everywhere, which is why Xi Jinping addressed Michel like this:

💬 "There is an Ancient Saying in China: "城门失火，殃及池鱼", or - "when the city gates are on fire, even the fish in the pond suffer" - and that is why China has always supported a political solution to the Conflict, supporting every attempt at dialogue provided by Russia, then always rejected by the Kiev Regime, directed by the USA.

🧾 Source

🔺China Daily: "NATO is a relict of the Cold War and the Russo-Ukrainian conflict is NATO's fault"

🔺 China foiled a trip by the Director of European Intelligence to Taiwan

🔺Wang Yi: "China will strongly support Russia in overcoming difficulties and strengthening its status as a great power"

🌸 Subscribe 👉 @collettivoshaoshan

[tradermade]

ECB hits the pause button on rates (as expected)! Explore https://markets.tradermade.com/breaking/ecb-holds-rates-at-375. But what's next for the Eurozone? Lagarde hints at a data-driven September move. Stay tuned!

[head-post]

Eurozone inflation rises in July

Inflation in the eurozone has once again become the subject of lively discussions in economic circles as its level exceeded expectations and reached 2.6 per cent in July, 2024. This unexpected increase has raised a number of questions and concerns among economists and investors alike, POLITICO reports.

The underlying picture also shows no signs of improvement for the third consecutive month. Excluding more volatile items such as food, alcohol, tobacco and energy, inflation came in at 2.9 per cent, defying analysts’ expectations of a decline to 2.8 per cent.

The price breakdown showed that services inflation, which is a particular focus of the European Central Bank  (ECB) because of its high correlation with domestic factors, slowed slightly to 4 per cent. Daniel Kral of Oxford Economics said via X that this detail would be the most worrying for the ECB, noting that it has been picking up in recent months. By contrast, energy prices rose 1.3 per cent year-on-year, up from 0.2 per cent in June.

On a monthly basis, which is a cleaner though more volatile reflection of current trends, prices were broadly unchanged, but goods prices fell 2.6 per cent, while services prices rose 1.2 per cent. The drop in goods prices might have been larger were it not for strong clothing sales in Italy, where retailers’ usual summer discounts this year were much smaller than last year, J.P. Morgan’s Greg Fuzesi said in a note to clients. As a result, Italy’s annual consumer price index more than doubled to 1.7 per cent from 0.8 in June.

Fuzesi also highlighted some rounding effects from Eurostat, which generally suggest that any upward “surprise” in the core numbers may be more noise than signal.

Waiting for September

The ECB’s next monetary policy decision will be made on September 12. President Christine Lagarde said in her latest press conference that a decision in September is ‘wide open’, but markets are pricing in an 80 per cent chance that the ECB will cut the key deposit rate to 3.5 per cent from 3.75 per cent currently.

The key point is likely to be how policymakers view price pressures in the all-important services sector.

“Surely, they’d like to see services inflation falling from the current level,” George Moran, European economist at Nomura, told POLITICO, adding, however, that today’s release does keep the chance of a rate cut intact.

What makes things even more difficult for policymakers is that the eurozone economy still grew by a healthy 0.3 per cent in the second quarter despite early signs of a slowdown, Eurostat said on Tuesday.

“Today’s figures have slightly reduced the probability of a rate cut in September,” said ING’s Global Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski. “But there’s still six weeks of data to be seen before the ECB has to make a decision.”

Read more HERE

[cambcurrencies]

Eurozone Consumer Confidence, US Jobless Claims and GDP in Focus

Eurozone Consumer Confidence Expected Steady, US Jobless Claims and GDP in Focus First off, we’ve got the European Consumer Confidence Index for June coming out at 9:00 AM. The current forecast suggests that the index will stay at -14, which means that folks in the Eurozone are still feeling pretty pessimistic about the economy. Not the best news, but it’s important to keep an eye on these…

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Tim Ganser at The UnPopulist:

Since the end of World War II, Germans had by and large steadfastly resisted voting for far-right populists. That norm was shattered in the last decade by the success of the political party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which seemed to gain more traction as it radicalized into a full-blown, hard right populist party. A year into its existence, spurred by widespread discontent with German fiscal policy, the AfD won seven seats in European Parliament. In 2017, after undergoing a hard-right turn, it won 94 seats in the German federal elections, good for third place overall. For the past year, the AfD has consistently ranked second in Politico’s poll aggregator tracking the public’s voting intentions.

In this Sunday’s European Parliament elections, roughly 1 in 6 German voters is expected to cast a ballot for the AfD, whose members have trivialized the Holocaust, encouraged their followers to chant Nazi slogans, and participated in a secret conference where they fantasized about forced deportations of naturalized citizens they derisively call “Passport Germans.” Worse still, the AfD is predicted to be the strongest party, with up to a third of the vote share, in the three elections for state parliament in Saxony and Thuringia on Sept. 1 and in Brandenburg on Sept. 22. And in generic polls for a hypothetical federal election, the AfD fares even better than it did in any previous election. How did Germany get to this point?

The AfD’s Origin Story

The AfD was founded in early 2013 by a group of conservatives, led by the economics professor, Bernd Lucke, greatly disillusioned with then-Chancellor Angela Merkel’s fiscal policy. In their view, the European debt crisis had revealed deep instability within the eurozone project as smaller nations found themselves unable to cope with the economic demands of membership, and they believed Merkel’s focus on saving the euro was coming at the expense of German economic interests. This was, however, the opposite of a populist complaint—in fact, the AfD was initially referred to as a “Professorenpartei” (a professor’s party) because of the party’s early support from various economics professors who were more interested in fiscal policy than catering to popular will. In its earliest days, the AfD could best be characterized as a cranky but respectable party of fiscal hardliners. Its anti-establishment posture stemmed entirely from its belief in the necessity of austerity. Even its name could be construed less as nationalistic and more an answer to the dictum coined by Merkel—“alternativlose Politik” (policy for which there is no alternative)—to defend her bailouts during the eurozone crisis.

Although the AfD had launched an abstract economic critique of Merkel’s policies that could be hard to parse for non-experts, its contrarian stance resonated with a significant portion of Germans. Right out of the gate, the AfD obtained the highest vote share of any new party since 1953, nearly clearing the 5% threshold for inclusion in the Bundestag, Germany’s Parliament, in its first electoral go round. Its success was also measurable in terms of membership, passing the 10,000 mark almost immediately after its formation. The rapid increase in membership, however, helped lay the groundwork for its turn toward right-wing populism. Perhaps due to pure negligence—or a combination of calculation and ambition—the party’s founders did little to stop right-wing populists from swelling its rolls. And as the German economy emerged through the European debt crisis in good financial shape, fiscal conservatism naturally faded from the public’s consciousness. However, a new European crisis having to do with migrants came to dominate the popular imagination. The AfD hardliners seized on the growing anti-migrant opinion, positioning the AfD as its champion, thereby cementing the party’s turn towards culture war issues like immigration and national identity.

Starting in late 2014, organized right-wing protesters took to the streets to loudly rail against Germany’s decision to admit Muslim migrants, many fleeing the Syrian civil war. The AfD right wing’s desire to become the political home of nativism led to a rift within the party that culminated in founder Bernd Lucke’s being ousted as leader in 2015, and his replacement with hardliner Frauke Petry. Lucke left the party entirely, citing its right-wing shift, following in the footsteps of what other party leaders had already done and more would do in the coming year. Up until this point, the AfD unwittingly helped the cause of right-wing populism. If the reactionary far-right had tried to start a party from scratch, it would have likely failed. The AfD, after all, was created within a respectable mold, trading on the credentials of its earliest founders and leaders. But with saner voices now pushed out, right-wing populists had the party with public respectability and an established name all to themselves. And they deliberately turned it into a Trojan horse for reactionary leaders who wanted to “fight the system from within.

[...]

A New Normal in Germany

As right-wing populist positions have become part of the political discourse, Germany is now in the exact same position as some of its European neighbors with established hardline populist parties. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni ascended to the premiership in October 2022 as the head of her neo-fascist Fratelli d’Italia party, which is poised to perform well in the upcoming European Parliament elections. In France, the Marine Le Pen-led far-right Rassemblement National (RN) is set to bag a third of votes in those elections, roughly double what President Macron’s governing coalition is expected to obtain.

What makes the situation in Germany especially worrisome is that, unlike in France and Italy, far-right parties had failed to garner any meaningful vote share in nationwide elections until just seven years ago; indeed, until the 2017 federal election, there had never been a right-wing populist party that had received more than six percent of the national vote in Germany. The nation’s special vigilance toward far right ethnonationalism in light of its history of Nazi atrocities was expected to spare Germany the resurgence of far-right populism. But it actually led to complacency among mainstream parties. By 2017, the AfD—already in its right-wing populist phase—received nearly 13% of the vote in the federal election to become the third-strongest parliamentary entity. And by then it had also made inroads in all state parliaments as well as the European Parliament. The norm against it was officially gone.

To be sure, the AfD is not on track to take over German politics. It currently has the fifth most seats among all German parties in the Bundestag, fourth most seats among German parties in the European Parliament, and is a distant eighth in party membership. Nor is it currently a threat to dominate European politics—late last month, the AfD was ousted from the Marine Le Pen-led Identity and Democracy (ID) party coalition, the most right-wing group in the European Parliament. Le Pen, herself a far-right radical, explained the AfD’s expulsion by describing the party as “clearly controlled by radical groups.” But none of the above offer good grounds for thinking the AfD will be relegated to the fringes of German or European politics.

After the election, the AfD could rejoin ID, or it could form a new, even more radical right-wing presence within the European Parliament. Some fear that the AfD could potentially join forces with Bulgaria’s ultranationalist Vazrazhdane. Its leader, Kostadin Kostadinov, said that AfD’s expulsion from ID could create an opening to form “a real conservative and sovereigntist group in the European Parliament.” Also, ID’s removal of the AfD wasn’t due to its stated policy platform being out of step with Europe’s right-wing populist project. Rather, it was because the AfD’s leading candidate, Maximillian Krah, was implicated in a corruption and spying scandal involving China and Russia, and because he said he would not automatically construe a member of the Nazi Schutzstaffel (SS) to be a criminal. Absent these entirely preventable missteps, the AfD would be in good standing with right-wing populist partners in Europe.

Seeing far-right Nazi-esque Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) rise in prominence in Germany is a sad sight.

[xjmlm]

Paul Mattick: "We're entering into a continuation of the downturn of 2020, which everybody describes as a COVID recession. It's true that the decision was made to stop the production and circulation of commodities, but the economy was already slowing down radically before that. If they hadn't done it on purpose, it would have happened anyway. And we are now returning to this slowdown, which you could say was interrupted by the enormous throwing of money by governments into the system. The problem is that the profitability of capital is still very low and the system is not expanding. For example, China, which started this process very late, was able ten years ago to manufacture a pseudo-prosperity by creating a real estate bubble, just like they did in Japan in 1980 and in the United States in 2007. It looked like everybody was getting rich and the economy was taking off and everything was great. But actually they were just providing credit so people could sell houses to each other.

And eventually the whole thing fell apart. It's not just something that's happening in China. The Chinese construction industry is collapsing, so Germany can't sell heavy machinery to China and Chinese businesspeople can't buy as many Mercedes as they used to buy. So you also have a contraction of the German economy happening at the same time. That has effects in the United States as well. There really is a global system which the economists forget when they're trying to analyze what's going on. There are problems in China, in the Eurozone, in the United States, or in Argentina, but, actually, it's one big system and it is not doing very well. Whoever can still make money by raising prices will do it, but others won’t be able to. They will not make a lot of money and the decline of the general economy will continue."

[mariacallous]

In a move that left political observers scratching their heads, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez recently called early elections for July 23, five months ahead of schedule. Sánchez cited his left-wing coalition’s poor performance in May 28 local and regional elections as the impetus for his decision, taking personal responsibility for defeats by the conservative opposition. “Spaniards should clarify which political forces they want to take the lead,” Sánchez said after the results were announced.

By moving up the national vote, Sánchez is sacrificing valuable campaign time that could allow him to shore up his base and attack the opposition. He also risks angering the public by dominating the summer with what is expected to be an intensely fought political campaign; Spain has never before held a general election in the middle of the season, raising concerns about low turnout.

At first glance, Sánchez’s decision to call for early elections seems baffling—and potentially self-defeating. But there is a fair bit of strategy behind his decision.

Sánchez leads the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party, or PSOE, which has ruled Spain longer than any other party since the country became a democracy in 1977 following the death of its longtime dictator, Gen. Francisco Franco. The party has been the engine behind Spain’s most important political, economic, and social changes over the years. PSOE’s accomplishments include shaping key provisions in Spain’s democratic constitution that was enacted by a 1978 referendum, such as a stipulation allowing for regional self-governance; guiding the country’s 1986 accession to the European Economic Community, a precursor to the European Union; and ushering in a revolution in social rights, including legalizing divorce, abortion, gay marriage, and euthanasia.

The PSOE has kept social democracy a viable political force in Spain at a time when it has struggled for relevance elsewhere in Western Europe. While social democratic parties in Italy, France, and Germany have in recent years either collapsed or become shadows of their former selves, the PSOE has thrived by shifting right on the economy—embracing some austerity measures—while pushing hard on cultural issues like LGBTQ+ rights, social justice, and gender parity.

Sánchez has been in power since 2018, following the ouster of then-Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy—a member of the conservative People’s Party (PP)—by a no-confidence vote triggered by a party-wide corruption scandal. That year, Sánchez made history in Spain by introducing a female-dominated cabinet. He then won a general election in November 2019 and was able to form a coalition with an electoral alliance led by Podemos, a left-wing populist party. It was Spain’s first coalition government since re-democratization.

For many voters, the prime minister has lost the luster of his initial years in office. A big culprit is COVID-19. Spain was hit especially hard by the pandemic, forcing Sánchez to implement one of Europe’s strictest lockdowns. Although an economic recovery is underway—Spain’s economy is projected to grow faster this year than the Eurozone average—this statistic is of little consolation to those hit by inflation and other economic ills. Sánchez also has yet to solve the Catalonia crisis: The prime minister has been willing to engage in negotiations with the region’s separatists but has refused to offer them the official independence referendum they seek.

Now, Sánchez hopes to use early elections to stop the political bleeding from his base—and prevent an implosion of his left-wing coalition. In the May 28 local and regional elections, the PSOE and Podemos sustained losses virtually everywhere, including in traditional strongholds such as Valencia and Andalusia.

Most observers expect a tight national race between the PSOE and the PP, and some polls show the PP ahead. The PP is benefiting from new leadership in the form of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, a former president of the Galicia region. Feijóo took over the party after the scandal-prone and divisive leadership of Pablo Casado, Sánchez’s principal opponent in the 2019 general elections. But polls indicate the PP will not be able to form a government without support from the far-right Vox party, which is currently registering a little over 10 percent in national opinion surveys. By calling early elections and catching the PP off guard, Sánchez believes he can weaken his conservative opponents as they deliberate on how to approach Vox.

Vox currently controls 52 seats in the Spanish Congress of Deputies—the third-largest force in that chamber—and, like most far-right parties, is extremely controversial. The party opposes LGBTQ+ rights, gender parity, and ongoing efforts to help Spain cope with the dark legacies of the Franco period. In particular, Vox has called for revoking the Law of Historical Memory, a landmark piece of legislation the PSOE enacted in 2007 that offered reparations to the victims of the Spanish Civil War and Franco’s political repression and deemed Franco’s regime illegitimate; and the 2022 Democratic Memory Law, which voided all court rulings issued under the old dictatorship, compelled the government to exhume the remains of those killed during the Civil War and the dictatorship and buried in mass graves, and banned the Francisco Franco National Foundation, which had promoted Franco’s legacy in democratic Spain. Vox has deemed both laws divisive and an attempt to rewrite history.

Vox’s political platform also includes erecting a wall around Ceuta and Melilla, two Spanish enclaves in northern Africa that have become flashpoints in EU migration policy. Even more controversial is Vox’s proposal to hold a national referendum to ban separatist parties, such as the Republican Left of Catalonia, one of the parties responsible for the illegal 2017 referendum on Catalan independence. Banning separatist parties would likely be illegal, since Spanish law only allows for barring parties involved in criminal activity. (In the post-Franco era, only one party has been banned by the courts: Batasuna, the political wing of the Basque terrorist organization ETA, in 2003.)

There is little sign that Vox intends to moderate its stances going into the elections. “Kicking out Pedro Sánchez to repeal each and every one of his policies” will be the party’s focus, Santiago Abascal, Vox’s leader, said in reaction to the prime minister’s call for early elections. Feijóo, who hails from the moderate wing of the PP, is wary of embracing Vox. But he is also refusing to say whether he would welcome Vox as a political partner, knowing that he might need the party to form a government. As a sign that Feijóo might welcome a national coalition with Vox, he last year approved Vox’s entry into a coalition with the PP to govern the conservative region of Castilla y León in north-central Spain.

On the campaign trail, Sánchez is working overtime to tie Feijóo to Vox. Sánchez is also ramping up his rhetoric about the danger a Vox entry into national government would pose for Spain, even as a junior partner to the more moderate PP. He has warned that Vox could undo or weaken legal protections for abortion and same-sex marriage and rekindle the country’s fascist past. He has even framed the upcoming election as a choice between democracy and autocracy, referencing recent elections in the United States and Brazil. “Spaniards need to decide if they want a government on the side of Biden or Trump,” Sánchez told PSOE members when justifying his call for early elections.

Sánchez is hoping that early elections will help consolidate Spain’s left—the only way he could win reelection. His strategy is already working: Podemos and Sumar—another progressive left-wing party—announced on June 9 that they will run as a single entity along with 13 other left-wing parties. The deal was struck just hours before political parties were required to register for the July 23 elections.

Sumar is an offshoot of Podemos and is a part of Sánchez’s coalition. Its leader, Yolanda Díaz, is Sánchez’s minister of labor and Spain’s most popular politician. She is credited with negotiating a popular pandemic-era program that kept as many as 7 million Spaniards dependent on the state for their income, including furloughed workers and those on medical leave. She also spearheaded Spain’s 2022 labor reform, which cracked down on short-term contracts and secured new union protections. Díaz and other progressives in the Sánchez government are credited with securing the “Iberian exception,” which allows Spain and Portugal to cap electricity prices rather than tie them to the free market—something no other EU member states are permitted to do.

In pressuring Podemos and Sumar to run together, Sánchez hopes to overwhelm any possible coalition the PP could form after the elections. Spain’s electoral law rewards large parties and intraparty coalitions. A poll from El País found that if Sumar and Podemos ran separately, they would win 26 and 3 parliamentary seats, respectively, while a unified platform would net 41 seats—vastly improving the prospects of the left remaining in power.

Undoubtedly, winning reelection will be Sánchez’s biggest challenge to date. He is facing an emboldened right, a splintered left, and restless separatists. But he should not be underestimated. Sánchez’s political obituary has been written before, most notably in 2016, when he was removed from his position as PSOE president. He regained the position a year later and rose to power in 2018. Shortly thereafter, he survived a Catalan separatist attempt to sink his government by forcing him into new elections. It is within him to pull off another victory.

[beardedmrbean]

Bulgaria, a country often overlooked in the broader European narrative, has begun its steady march towards a significant milestone: the adoption of the euro and the Schengen area by January 1, 2025. This stride, as announced by Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov, is not merely a bureaucratic transition, but a powerful symbol of the nation's commitment to economic stability and its role in fortifying the European Union's (EU) external borders.

Bulgaria's Path to Euro Adoption

Since Bulgaria's accession to the EU in 2007, the nation has been diligently working towards meeting the Maastricht criteria - the yardstick for euro adoption. This includes maintaining low inflation, a stable exchange rate, robust public finances, and convergence of long-term interest rates. Denkov's confidence in Bulgaria's candidacy for euro adoption is built on the country's low debt to GDP ratio and consistently low deficit. These economic indicators, he argues, are indicative of Bulgaria's fiscal discipline and sustainability, a testament to its readiness to join the euro area. Despite the looming concerns over inflation, Denkov remains optimistic that Bulgaria's inflation rate is manageable. He believes that euro adoption would further cement the country's economic stability and open doors for growth. This confidence is not without its basis - the European Central Bank closely monitors inflation rates in candidate countries, ensuring they meet the requisite criteria.

(Read Also: Bulgarian Retirees Await Decision on Christmas Supplements)

Strengthening Border Protection and Schengen Accession

Apart from its economic journey, Bulgaria's path to euro adoption is also intertwined with its progress in fortifying the EU's external border. This is a prerequisite for Bulgaria's entry into the Schengen area, a zone that allows for passport-free travel among member states. Denkov asserts that Bulgaria and Romania's entry into Schengen would not only enable faster border crossings for trucks but also allow a redirection of border police to the EU's external borders - a move that would benefit other member countries. The Schengen accession has been a long-standing aspiration for both Bulgaria and Romania since their EU accession in 2007. Despite significant strides in meeting the necessary requirements, their entry has been delayed due to apprehensions from some EU member states about the effectiveness of their border control systems. Yet, their eventual accession would not only enhance security cooperation within the EU and fortify the EU's external borders but also foster greater integration and mobility within the EU, echoing the fundamental principles of the European project.

Potential Implications of Euro Adoption

Joining the euro area would usher in a new era for Bulgaria's economy and its integration within the EU. Adopting the euro would mitigate the country's currency risk and augment economic stability. It would eliminate transaction costs and exchange rate risks for businesses operating between Bulgaria and the eurozone, catalyzing cross-border trade and investment, and enhancing Bulgaria's appeal to foreign direct investment. Moreover, being part of the euro area would grant Bulgaria access to the European Stability Mechanism, a financial safety net for eurozone countries facing financial difficulties. This would provide additional support to Bulgaria in times of economic crises. In conclusion, Bulgaria's progress towards euro adoption by January 1, 2025, is more than a date on a calendar. It symbolizes the country's resolve to further integrate within the EU and its commitment to economic stability and border protection. As Bulgaria moves towards this milestone, the nation is affirming its position as a reliable and active member of the EU, ready to shoulder its shared responsibilities and reap the benefits of the collective endeavour.

[eaglesnick]

Second-rate Britain 7

The UK pension and life expectancy controversy rumbles on.

Kemi Badenoch, Secretary of State for Business and Trade, was interviewed by Amol Rajan on the Today programme (31/03/23) about her new trade deal in the Pacific. This much-heralded deal is worth 0.08% of GDP. The governments own figures calculate that leaving the EU cost us 4% of GDP so Badenock's deal is hardly doing to make up the loss in EU trade.

What has this got to do with pensions and life expectancy?  A lot. Without a vibrant economy, good pensions become unaffordable and ordinary people are made to work longer and longer, to the point where many will die before they reach official retirement age.

I mention Kemi Badenoch because she is one of many self-proclaimed right-wing politicians in Sunak's administration, and our pensions and life expectancy are directly linked to their beliefs and behaviour: beliefs inform and shape legislation.

Badenoch, and right-wing politicians like her, are ideologues. They put belief before evidence when drawing up the laws we have to live by. We all know the terrible damage Liz Truss, an ideologue in the extreme, did to our economy: so extreme even her own party couldn’t stomach her!

Badenoch is as bad.

When asked by Amol Rajan if this year’s economic figure of 0.1% growth was acceptable she replied:

“Even getting 0.1% GDP (growth) is actually us managing the economy well”.

Really? The IMF reported Eurozone growth at 3.5% for 2022. If Badenoch’s 0.1% growth is managing the economy well what does a failing UK economy would look like?

Rajan put two points to Badenoch.

“In the decade to 2007 Britain’s productivity growth was second only to America in the G7. In the decade to 2019 growth stalled to just 0.7% a year making Britain the 2nd slowest in the G7."

These economic figures, said Rajan, translate into:

 “…real felt human experience…After 13 years of your party being in power life expectancy in this country is rising for the rich people and falling for the poor people. Can you think of a more severe indictment of your parties record in power than that?”

Badenoch then made a number of excuses for her party failing to grow the economy, and on falling life expectancy for the poor said:

“We have done and spent so much on things like the NHS and education. Obviously it is very disappointing.”

Apart from this being a totally misleading statement regarding monies spent on the NHS and education - spending has actually fallen in both these sectors as a percentage of GDP over the last decade – her reaction to life expectancy falling for the poor as being “disappointing” is callous in the extreme.

But she isn’t the only callous right-wing politician in the Tory ranks.

“Jacob Rees-Mogg suggests state pension age should be raised to 72” (Daily Mail: 30/3/23)

Rees-Mogg, like Badenoch, is an ideologue of the worse kind: they simply REFUSE to acknowledge facts.

Reese-Mogg, according to the Mail,

…”argued that for the age to reflect improvements in life expectancy since 1940 it would need to be four years higher than the 68 currently being mooted.”

In the same way Badenoch has publicly stated that there is no institutional racism in Britain (please read the reports on the Met and the Fire Service), Reese-Mogg ignores the figures for life expectancy for the poor.

If the Tories remain in power we in Britain face the prospect of watching younger French retirees sitting on Mediterranean beaches sipping champagne while we, providing  we are lucky enough to live long enough, will be slaving away into our seventies.