#he’s actually significantly more invested in his company than other comparable people are

[daydreamerdrew]

Iron Man (1968) #62

[xcrystalzero]

let the rain fall

characters included: zhongli, diluc, childe, kaeya, venti, xiao

summary: it seems the genshin boys have their own preferences of how to spend a rainy day.

Zhongli:

- This gloomy atmosphere is nothing that can't be fixed with a fresh pot of fine tea and some good conversation.

- When a glance out the window makes it clear that you won't be going anywhere anytime soon, he's quick to invite you to stay for some tea and snacks.

- Despite his evident lack of Mora, he has no lack of niceties where he lives and you can only wonder who he got to pay for this high grade tea and fine china.

- He offers you a knitted blanket and the two of you sit at the table as he pours you a cup of tea. It tastes warm and homey and he even sweetened it perfectly to your taste.

- To fill the time, Zhongli does what he does best. He tells you stories about Liyue, both as it is now, and as he knew it when he was a younger god. He weaves modern stories of families warring in certain trade businesses with seemingly fantastical recollections of rock spirits carved into dragons and gods that warred between the sea and sky.

- To him, time may not be an issue, but in the hectic mortal life you live, you've never before been able to truly sit down and listen to the experiences of the man before you. Even as the sky outside clears, you can't bring yourself to rise from your seat and return to your normal life. After hearing about the life of a god, how could you?

Diluc:

- For him, it's business as usual at the Winery.

- Sure, he's probably not going to be making the treck to Mondstat to work the bar at Angel's Share if it's raining cats and dogs outside, but there's plenty of other work that has to get done that he can manage from home.

- If you do manage to pry him away from his desk, you attempt to draw him back to the bedroom to get a little bit of rest, but as you pass the study, his eyes light up and you can tell that he has something else planned now.

- Suddenly, you're sitting across from Diluc, a chessboard between you. If you have no idea how to play, he'll diligently take the time to instruct you, making sure that you're able to understand the game perfectly before he proposes a practice match. Otherwise, he comes out of the gate with that one and there's a strange competitive glint in his eyes that you've never really seen before.

- And so you play. Diluc, for all of his gentlemanly qualities, is not one to throw the match just because he likes you. In fact, that actually spurs him on even more to try and one-up you at every turn. The gameplay is accompanied by an uncharacteristic amount of banter between the two of you. Every time one person takes the match, the other immediately issues another challenge and so you play on and on.

- The maids come to check on you guys since they're sure that you'll burn out at this rate, but you seem to be having a lot of fun, and so they let you be. The weather and your responsibilities are all but forgotten about as the two of you get to spend this well-earned time off together.

Childe:

- Thinks the rain is really fun. Growing up in basically a polar tundra, he didn't really see rain all that much until he left his hometown and began his duties as a Harbinger.

- The novelty of the whole thing combined with his hydro vision and love of water means that he loves rainy days.

- Will 100% drag you out into the downpour just to play around. At first, it seems a little out of character, even for the playful Harbinger, but you quickly realize what he's actually trying to do.

- That aforementioned hydro vision comes in handy as Childe begins to move the raindrops around him, molding them into creations that you can't help but compare to the Oceanid's hyrdo mimics. He's clearly having a blast and the light in his usually flat cerulean eyes only brightens when he sees that you're impressed, or at least amused.

- He just likes to show off, but showing off in front of you is even better so he has a blast. Perhaps if you have a vision, you can join in and the two of you can cause as much chaos as you want before the clouds clear.

- It's a rare chance for you to see a more carefree side of Childe. Usually, even his boyish charm is often a calculated move in the diplomatic schemes he claims to hate so much but is just so good at manufacturing. This however, feels like the real Childe to you.

- Eventually, you drag him into your place to get cleaned up and out of your soaked clothing but even as the moment fades, the light in his eyes doesn't. He looks better like this, you think but don't say. Instead, you chose to enjoy this side of the Harbinger before it inevitably fades away once more.

Kaeya:

- Does not like the rain because of certain... complications with it in his past. He won't tell you but it's not too hard to figure out from his actions.

- When it does rain, he prefers to either hole himself up in his office, or settle happily into the corner of a tavern and burn time with his drinking buddies.

- On the chance that you decide to join him, he's quite grateful for your company. He offers to cover your tab this time if you get him the next time he's had a few too many, which you wave off. However, as he begins to down drinks at an alarming speed, you can't help but worry.

- So, you slow him down by drawing him into conversation. You begin to talk about the most random things, though you continuously bring the conversation back around to him so that it is Kaeya telling the stories and doing a lot of the actual speaking. Not only does this slow down his progress through the wine before him, but it draw the other patrons to you.

- Suddenly, you've gone from two people talking at the bar, to basically a large gathering of people, all holed in together telling their stories, bantering, and bickering, and enjoying themselves.

- It takes him a while since you were kind of slick about it, but the Cavalry Captain catches on eventually and the smallest of smiles comes to his face. A real one this time. Well well, as far as playing games goes, he's pretty sure you won this one. And he's glad about it.

- He becomes significantly more relaxed after that, though he leans into you for the rest of the night, resting his head on your shoulders or pulling you gently closer to him. Nothing spicy or suggestive. Just a gentle gesture to show that he really is grateful for all of this, and for you.

Venti:

- Decides that it's the perfect time to start singing in the square.

- No seriously, you're wandering around Mondstat looking for the guy, only to find him traipsing around at the base of his statue, singing into the sky.

- Obviously, you yell at him to come inside, mentioning that he's not going to get any coins for his songs if there's no audience out to listen to them. He laughs at that, giving you a quick lecture of the value of music outside of money.

- And then he grabs your hand and pulls you out from under the overhanging you were taking shelter under. You screech at first but it turns to giggles as he then holds his hand out to you. "May I have this dance? Hehe, I've always wanted to say that!" How could you turn away such an adorable archon?

- And so, you indulge him, letting him lead you in a dance that is more skipping and jumping about than really dancing, but it's fun and brings bubbles of laughter to your lips so you keep going. He sings throughout it, making your own music as you spin around one another.

- Your shenanigans begin to draw some looks as people begin to yell from their windows, requesting songs from Venti, along with whatever dance you decide to "choreograph" to them. Perhaps some will even leave their houses and join you, reveling in the cool summer rain and the song that seems to cut straight through it.

Xiao:

- Adepti are rarely bothered by the rain, but he notes that you don't seem particularly keen on setting foot outside right now and actually suggests that the two of you just stay at Wangshu Inn until it clears up a little.

- You're surprised by his care, though you're not complaining as you dip back under the roof, protected and dry.

- That being said, you can tell that he's getting kind of antsy and you don't want him to feel uncomfortable at all or like he's being held there for no reason. So, you decide to find an activity for the two of you that doesn't involve fighting and that you can do inside of the inn.

- It takes a little convincing but you manage to get Smiley Yanxiao to loan you guys the kitchen for a little while (he's not getting any customers either way in this weather). It's time, you decide, for Xiao to learn how to make Almond Tofu himself!

- He's a bit skeptical but you bring up that it is his favorite dish, and he does eat it pretty often, so he should probably know what goes into making it. He begrudgingly agrees and you start.

- As it turns out, having never cooked in his long life, Xiao is awful at it. You guys absolutely botch the recipe the first two times and you're sure that Xiao is going to bail on you, saying that this was a stupid idea and going back to sulking at the top of the inn. Surprisingly though, he actually stays and seems like he's invested in the entire process.

- On the third try, you guys finally come up with something tangible. After a taste, it's not quite on the level of the one Smiley Yanxiao makes, but it's still not bad. Xiao is tempted to just huff and take off, but the look of accomplishment and happiness on your face as you two share the dish you made together warms him in a way he only feels when he's around you.

-Perhaps he can afford to spend more rainy days indoors and idle, if it means spending them with you.

[voyd-is-in-a-portal]

How to End Up Being an Inventor (In 5 Actions).

We consulted with numerous expert inventors to boil down the tricks of the craft. Some have made jobs out of an invention, others have found markets. If you're sitting on an idea that might be the next terrific American invention, below's your playbook.

1. Cultivate an Idea.

The record of the invention is studded with one-hit marvels, inventors whose solitary blockbuster suggestion made them a fortune. However one of the most prolific inventors can not switch off the idea maker. They are also troubled as well as creative. Inventors just see life's many obstacles in a different way than the average person, according to medical-devices inventor Robert Fischell. "The key to inventing is the awareness that a problem is a trigger from which an invention can be created," says Fischell, who holds more than 200 patents for advancements such as an implantable heart defibrillator and also enhanced stents. "When I'm in the operating room as well as a doctor tosses a device against the wall in irritation, I claim, 'Great, here's an opportunity.'".

Fischell, who at the elevation of his profession filed a new patent application every six weeks, wastes no time in determining whether his most recent concept satisfies the patent test of being brand-new, beneficial, and also nonobvious. He goes right to the U.S. Patent as well as Hallmark Workplace's database of released patents (patft.uspto.gov) and performs a search. "If you review a patent, as well as someone, has currently resolved the issue, after that you're still an inventor. You just arrived late," he says.

If, after an initial search, your idea verifies unique, after that continue developing it. Be reasonable concerning what you're obtaining right into. "The moment you commit will be dual what you believe it will be, as well as the buck amounts you devote will be 4 times what you assumed," Leatherman states.

Make drafts, execute examinations, expand principles, and keep comprehensive notes. Patent lawyers suggest their customers preserve a visit a completely bound notebook that obtains stamped by a notary public frequently. A logbook becomes essential in cases before the U.S. Patent and also Trademark Workplace including similar technologies, as the burden of proof is up to patent applicants to demonstrate that they were the initial to conceive of an invention.

At this onset in the video game, your investment of personal time and money will have been minor compared with what is around the bend. Before the case, you'll need to ask some hard questions about both your concept as well as on your own: Is my idea significantly different than any that precede it? Exists a large market for the product? Can it be developed and made at a reasonable expense? That is the client, and why should they get my product as well as not a competitor's? Am I prepared to devote myself fully to making this concept do well?

Inventors who have been via the process care not to undervalue the psychological and mental determination called for. "If you can't afford mentally and intellectually to fail if your vanity would certainly be wiped out after that don't do it.". see also InventHelp TV Commercial

2. Develop a Model.

With the schedule of powerful computing and computer-assisted layout software application like Autodesk Inventor as well as SolidWorks 3D CAD, inventors today live in what Kamen describes as "the utmost sweet-shop." The earliest versions of Kamen's first invention, a wearable mixture pump that provides specific dosages of medicines such as insulin, sprang to life out a computer system display yet in a workshop set up in the basement of his parents' home on Long Island, N.Y. Kamen was a teenager at the time.

Also when made in a highly exact digital CAD atmosphere, an item ultimately has to leap to the genuine globe in the kind of a model. Depending on the materials entailed and the complexity of an invention, the expense of making a high-quality prototype can empty a financial institution account as well as compel an inventor to look for financing at an extremely early stage.

Tim Leatherman supports taking a DIY technique. During an experimental phase lasting three years, he constructed prototypes of his groundbreaking multitool from cardboard, wood, as well as steel till he picked advanced layout. "By collaborating with my hands," he says, "I found out about barriers to performance as well as manufacturability.".

When you have your prototype, it's time to repair your invention. Obtain outside your head and go-to experts in the field, Fischell suggests. "Ask, 'Do you believe my suggestion has business benefit? Would certainly you utilize it?' Make them authorize a privacy arrangement," he says. For inventors, the possibility of copyright burglary is very actual, but way too much caution can become immobilizing. Privacy, or nondisclosure, the contract permits you to field-test in confidence.

Responses from Mario Salazar's target audience-- woodworkers-- compelled the Colorado Springs inventor to adjust his digital miter gauge. The mechanical prototype he constructed in the cellar with a blowpipe, an oscilloscope, and also a milling maker noticed eBay worked efficiently as well as felt ideal to Salazar, yet the tradespersons wanted it bigger as well as much more inexpensive. "You can't fall for your invention," he states. "Obtain responses and also make alterations accordingly.".

In the agitated company world, a patent protects the inventor by providing the unique right to leave out others from making, making use of, or offering his invention for 20 years. "When other people see you making cash, your patent will be the only methods you have for keeping control of the market," claims Lonnie Johnson, founder of Johnson ElectroMechanical types of equipment as well as the inventor of the Super Soaker water weapon. Follow inventhelp for more advice:

https://www.linkedin.com/company/inventhelp

https://twitter.com/inventhelp

3. Submit a Patent.

Patent law is made complex things, so get an experienced patent lawyer to write and also file your patent application. Anticipate to pay in between $3000 as well as $10,000. "Work with a patent lawyer who additionally has a level in the field you're making an application for a patent in and who understands your market," Salazar encourages.

A knowledgeable lawyer can prepare a wide patent that safeguards an invention against violation from any angle. In the case of Richard Phillips, proprietor of International Survival, his well-crafted patent application made it impossible for anybody to replicate the slim, shock-absorbing material he developed for his protective paintball vest. "My legal representative spread out the patent out thus far over and below my laminated foam product's residential properties that a competitor's vest would certainly have to be so hefty the wearer couldn't walk approximately light that the vest falls apart when struck," Phillips states.

On standard, patent authorization takes 3 years and may call for going back as well as forth several times with patent examiners. From the moment a patent application arrives at the USPTO up until it is either provided or abandoned, an invention is covered by patent-pending standing. In the situation of John Marsden, that created Pour 'N Shop, a bartending system of plastic containers, and also put spouts for beverage mixers, a pending patent amounted to a suit of paper armor.

According to Salazar, any kind of inventor has to be all set to do battle. "I'll have my attorney send out a cease-and-desist letter if somebody infringes on my patent. As well as in the end, a patent is just as great as the thickness of your pocketbook.".

4. Examine the Market.

When the patent application is in total, the inventor needs to change from developing a suggestion of developing a service. Rare is the innovative brilliant behind an invention that likewise has business chops-- or the interest-- to look after the manufacture, advertising, and also selling of his production. Even the brightest innovative minds can drop victim to the countless rip-offs and also doubtful invention-promotion companies whose advertisements clutter the Internet. Many expert inventors urge care with any kind of attire that requests for cash upfront to shop your suggestions about.

Tim Leatherman built up important know-how in business and also production by joining with Steve Berliner. John Marsden, the Pour 'N Store designer, partnered early on with service school grad Ed Harrigan. "If I had not had Ed, I probably would not have made it," he says.

Marketing research studies-- perform your own or appoint a market research company-- will certainly provide you data concerning market patterns and customer demographics. There is no substitute, nevertheless, for putting your invention in front of potential consumers as well as manufacturers, providers, and distributors to get a sense of its market value. For the inventor, this is an anxious time.

Salazar is a big believer in showing your items at trade shows. "You'll figure out who is doing what, whether you'll be able to contend and if somebody wants to get what you have," he claims. "However you're additionally dropping your cabinets and every person will see what you've obtained. Your item had better be 95 percent complete. Be ready to answer concerns: Just how huge is the market? That's mosting likely to buy it?".

5. Sell It or Make It.

Inventors make cash in two means: collecting aristocracies by certifying the right to produce their invention or production, distributing, and marketing the invention themselves. Louis J. Foreman, owner, and also the primary executive of Enventys, an item style as well as a design firm in Charlotte, N.C., and writer of The Independent Inventor's Handbook, has personally encountered that problem several times as the holder of 10 licenses as well as has encouraged many inventors as a lead court on the PBS program Everyday Edisons.

Then it's time to ask yourself one more round of questions: First, exists enough upside potential to merit the threat of bringing the item to market on your own? "Consider opportunity costs also," Foreman says. "If you have to quit a job that pays $100,000, can you make enough to counter that?" Second, do you have the financial resources to pull it off? If you don't, then where is the money most likely to originate from? And lastly, do you have the competence to run an organization? "It's one point to come up with a remarkable item, however, are you comfy marketing it, can you distribute it, restore it as well as satisfy orders if Walmart offers you a 5-million-piece purchase order?" Supervisor claims.

No question licensing is the less complicated path to getting an invention to market. It requires less dedication of time as well as up-front resources and frees inventors to do what they do best: invent. However, expedience comes with an expense. Royalty prices on patents-- created on the list price, production run, as well as various other variables-- average less than 2 to 7 percent of retail sales. Still, for a first-time inventor brief on funds and also know-how, a licensing contract can be the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

[mitmclean]

Online Consumer Behavior: Influenced

Consumer decision making has changed drastically with the introduction of online retailers, e-commerce, and social media marketing. Compared to consumer decisions in a brick-and-mortar environment, online decisions are based on highly informed decisions and easy comparisons to similar products. An important topic that is addressed in the book Nudge by Thaler and Sunstein, humans are not perfectly informed “Econs,” rather they use the sources they have to make easy decisions. Furthermore, with lower transaction costs, the online retail environment has lowered human procrastination and increased impulsive purchases due to various influences.

Peer Influence: Social Media

The surge of social media in which people can share pictures, videos, and commentary has ignited a wave of monetizing one’s status on apps such as Instagram and Tik Tok. Humans look toward peers and, even more so, influencers (role models or avatars) who represent an entity that a consumer wants to be like for inspiration on purchases. For example, Kylie Jenner is maintains an astounding presence on Instagram and currently has 225 million followers on her account. As a fashionable and successful businessperson, Jenner commands the attention of people who want to look like or dress like her. Because of the height of her followership, Kylie Jenner will receive upwards of $1 million of advertisement payment for a single post on her feed. Instagram has become a seriously powerful advertisement tool that can be utilized even for influencers who have significantly fewer followers than Jenner (as low as 2,000 followers). This structure of advertisement is as easy as a single picture but can be tricky because if an influencer is clearly promoting a product for payment, his or her followers may wonder if the influencer actually enjoys the product or is just trying to collect a paycheck. 

Targeted Ads

Customized recommendation engines is an effective way to personalize the advertisements that users see online. Based on search engine history and cookies/caches, advertisements can be targeted to users for products that they recently searched or perused online. In addition to this, advertisers can use search history algorithm to target the ads based on the type of things that person has googled previously. For example, if I am a business woman who looks at stock performance on the NYSE or DJI and also read the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times daily, then my ads could be for women’s business suits or other websites that contain business information. While this can seem invasive of online privacy, the targeted ads allow consumers to focus in on items that they would probably buy rather than a complete list of many different products that perhaps the consumer is not interested in. Targeted ads lends to the influence of impulsivity because it can take advantage of a consumer’s desire for a purchase if they are emotionally scrolling and want a the dopamine hit of making a purchase or are reminded that they have been thinking of a certain product and finally want to buy it. 

Screens

When consumers view information through screens, they are experiencing a consumer environment that is very different than an in-person experience. Online consumers are able to easily compare products and make an informed decision - instead of having to walk to another store to see a similar product, the consumer can make the direct comparison of an alternate product. Additionally, companies can easily invest in a visually appealing interface that can establish the trustworthiness of the company. Consumers can be deferred from buying a product or using a service if the company website is messy and hard to use. A example of a great interface is Wayfair’s website. Wayfair has easily searchable products and will show complementary products or similar products on the page that can entice consumers to buy certain products or buy additional products. Finally, when using a screen, consumers lose any hesitation or embarrassment they might feel when buying the product in person. If a consumer does not need to divulge exactly how much or what he or she is purchasing, he will feel no shame about the purchase. 

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

cwick (Chadwick Matlin, deputy editor): Clare, Kaleigh and Maggie, thanks for joining me to talk about the president’s medicine cabinet. Yesterday, President Trump revealed that he’s taking hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malarial medication, to help prevent him from contracting COVID-19. Trump’s comments were the culmination of his interest in the drug, which he has hyped for months as a way to help fight the pandemic. Let’s talk about what the science says about hydroxychloroquine, what Trump has said about it, and what it says about Trump that he’s taking it.

So, let’s start with the science, which is about the only thing that can ground us in this frenzied moment. Can hydroxychloroquine prevent someone from getting COVID-19?

clare.malone (Clare Malone, senior political writer): (Readers can, on their own time, imagine what else is in the president’s gold-plated medicine cabinet.)

maggie (Maggie Koerth, senior science writer): What we’re basically looking at here is a massive lack of evidence for anything, Chad.

kaleigh (Kaleigh Rogers, science and politics reporter): The results from the few studies that have been done are mixed, at best. Some have found hydroxychloroquine reduced the duration of COVID-19, others have found no difference between using the drug and not, and at least one found there was actually a worse outcome for patients who were on hydroxychloroquine versus those who were not.

maggie: There are ongoing studies of better quality happening — I’m particularly interested in one that’s looking at COVID-19 incidence and outcomes in lupus patients who were already taking hydroxychloroquine for their chronic illness — but we just don’t have evidence to say it does anything.

kaleigh: We do know from past trials of hydroxychloroquine that it can cause abnormal heart rhythms, so the president’s claim that there’s no harm in trying it is not based on evidence. This isn’t like taking vitamin C.

cwick: And are these all studies that test for whether hydroxychloroquine prevents COVID-19? Or are they testing whether it improves treatment of the disease?

kaleigh: Most trials I’ve seen are to treat COVID-19, not to prevent it. (Though there is at least one trial currently testing it out for preventive use.)

cwick: So Trump’s decision to take it preventively complicates things further. We’re in the dearth-iest corner of the dearth of evidence.

maggie: You have the science side of things, which is mostly proceeding as it ought to, and you have the political side, which is full of hype and boom-or-bust demand.

cwick: With that said, Clare, why is Trump doing this? Or maybe the better question: Why is Trump telling us he’s doing it?

clare.malone: On a personal level, Trump is likely taking it because of the recent infections of White House staff and because, well, as we all know, he’s a germaphobe!

But I think it’s a piece of his public response to the outbreak. He attempted, in a quite pitched way at first, to convince the public that things were not as bad as they were made out to be. He promised a non-entity of a disease at first and compared it to the flu. The idea of taking this drug plays into all that, in a more tamped-down way, because he’s offering the public a sort of “cure” or hope. I don’t think it’s a slip of the tongue, but it is a key part of his own thinking about the virus and a key part of how he wants to talk about it in public.

cwick: That’s interesting, Clare. One of the defining characteristics of this disease has been its uncertainty. That’s in part because we haven’t known how to treat those who are sick (let alone make the rest of us immune). Trump seems to be saying: If a medication is good enough to make the president feel safer, it’s good enough to make you feel safer.

maggie: I’m interested, Clare, in whether we’ve seen presidents get so specific in their hope-peddling before. It seems normal for a president to say, “Oh there’s all this research being done and we will have options, let’s fund them.” But it feels to me like Trump has uniquely used the bully pulpit to tout specific products — hydroxychloroquine, that Abbott Laboratories test — when there was more than one option out there. And it’s come back to bite him multiple times. Because when science is moving fast, most of the “good ideas” are going to fail at first. Pinning hope on specific brands and products seems like a real risk he’s taken on.

clare.malone: Right, Chad. The president has gotten A TON of flak for his refusal to wear a mask, but that’s also part of his messaging! It’s certainly odd that he’s taking this drug and not wearing a mask, but he’s a big believer in the sort of traditional displays of “masculine” strength that American politicians have thought the public likes to see. His no-mask thing is the pandemic equivalent of presidential candidates not wearing winter coats while campaigning in Iowa in January.

cwick: This isn’t about promoting promising research, or the latest trial results. He is, in effect, becoming part of the trial himself.

kaleigh: Except it’s not controlled, randomized or blind, so his “trial” is scientifically meaningless. I drink coffee every day and haven’t gotten COVID-19 yet — maybe that’s a prophylactic, too! This is the logic of anecdotal evidence.

maggie: So this reminds me of the study I saw about how men were significantly less likely than women to take non-pharmaceutical preventive measures in a health crisis, like wearing masks, but were more likely than women to take pharmaceutical measures.

kaleigh: His announcement that he’s taking it certainly felt defiant, like he’s doubling down in spite of the evidence. He also spent some time yesterday criticizing a Veterans Affairs study, which found that patients on hydroxychloroquine actually had a higher risk of death.

cwick: Kaleigh, your point about the VA study is super interesting. We’ve seen how the president can dismiss news and findings that run counter to the narrative he wants to promote, and part of his political struggle during this crisis has been knowing when to embrace the science and when to reject it out of hand. By putting his chips in on one drug, the drug itself becomes a cause to rally behind, and news that disputes its power becomes easier for Trump to critique. Essentially, hydroxychloroquine has become part of the White House policy agenda.

clare.malone: Also, if you’ve eschewed a lot of the science in your initial stages of your response, you might as well bet big on a miracle cure, right? Maybe you’ll be right and people will credit with you being early to the party. Americans do love pharmaceutical solutions to their problems.

Shoutout here to former Sen. Bob Dole, the OG American politician-pharmaceuticals spokesman.

kaleigh: It is strange that he got so fixated on this one possible treatment, though. The antiviral drug Remdesivir, by contrast, actually has some promising early results. Why is Trump so interested in hydroxychloroquine? He has scoffed at questions about whether he, say, owns stock in a company that produces the drug, but he also hasn’t provided a lot of explanation about why he’s so fascinated with it.

cwick: Some would have you believe that it might be an issue of cronyism. Here’s the New York Times from April: “Some associates of Mr. Trump’s have financial interests in the issue. Sanofi’s largest shareholders include Fisher Asset Management, the investment company run by Ken Fisher, a major donor to Republicans, including Mr. Trump. A spokesman for Mr. Fisher declined to comment.”

clare.malone: It’s a good question. I’m a bit skeptical of the stock interests answer, since what Trump seems to own is quite negligible. But to Chad’s point, Trump’s personal phone line is always known to be open to friends outside the White House! In the initial stages of the crisis, there’s a sense that he was hesitant to trigger portions of the Defense Production Act because of feedback from the Chamber of Commerce and private industry.

maggie: And meanwhile, his political advocacy has pushed for millions to be spent on it … supplies acquired by the VA and the Strategic National Stockpile.

kaleigh: One thing is clear: When Trump touts a treatment, interest goes up. Not only do Google searches soar, but at least one online prescription service reported a nearly six-fold increase in demand for hydroxychloroquine prescriptions after Trump first mentioned the drug.

maggie: We know there were people from the anti-vaccine movement promoting the so-called ”miracle mineral solution” to him — a pseudoscience “treatment” that basically amounts to industrial bleach — before he spent that one press conference talking about treating yourself with disinfectant.

clare.malone: And we know Trump is susceptible to anti-vaxxers from earlier in his time in public life.

maggie: I can see why the open phone line thing would work in real estate — hot backdoor tips from buddies. But that doesn’t really work in science.

clare.malone: But isn’t it more politics masquerading as science? Which might be the whole problem.

cwick: Right, it seems like we’re all arriving at the same terminus: The president has long demonstrated a contrarian approach to science, so his taking hydroxychloroquine despite iffy science is as much about the political as it is about the personal.

kaleigh: What is the political motivation to fixate on one drug and also continue to tout it against all current evidence?

clare.malone: Momentum. You’ve already been saying it: Why stop saying it?! You’ll just look more fallible.

cwick: Politicians don’t like to be wrong.

maggie: This politician in particular really doesn’t like to be wrong — maybe even more so than others.

clare.malone: It’s the spin zone, y’all! Hop on in. It’s dark, but that’s what it is.

kaleigh: Right, changing your mind based on new and better information is bad in politics, for some reason.

clare.malone: Flip flopping.

cwick: It’s considered bad in broader society, too!

clare.malone: Is it?? That’s actually an interesting question.

cwick: I’d say that I’m reconsidering, but then you’d think I was weak…

[douchebagbrainwaves]

I'VE BEEN PONDERING SUMMER

In Lisp, all variables are effectively pointers. Why go work as an ordinary employee for a big company, or have they abandoned the center for the suburbs?1 Especially if it meant independence for my native land, hacking.2 It's hard to engage an audience it's better to start with what goes wrong and try to trace it back to the root causes. A lot of the new startups would create new technology that further accelerated variation in productivity is far from the only source of economic inequality, the former because founders own more stock, and the rate at which it changes is itself speeding up.3 When we first started Y Combinator we have some kind of secret weapon—that he was harming his future—that hacking was cold, precise, and methodical, and that was more than enough technical skill. There is a name now for what we were: an Application Service Provider, or ASP. How little money it can take to start a company of any size to get software written.

I needed to remember, if I could give an example of a powerful macro, and say there!4 Design means making things for humans. Wrong. Big companies also don't pay people the right way to get an accurate drawing is not to make the poor richer. This sort of thing was the rule, not better off, as more than a plan A. In some ways, this assumption makes life a lot easier for the users and for us as well. Why did desktop computers take over?5 Programmers have to worry about infrastructure. For the first week or so we intended to make this point diplomatically, but in many ways pushes you in the opposite direction.6 Similarly, good new problems are not to be had for the asking. Don't be too legalistic about the conditions under which they're allowed to leave.

Now, when someone asks me what I do, I look them straight in the eye and say I'm designing a new dialect of Lisp;-Though useful to present-day union organizers rather than an attack on early ones. I think mathematicians also believe this. In the middle you have people who are poor or rich and figure out why. We were just able to develop stuff in house, and that if grad students could start startups, they'll start startups. Eric Raymond here. Which seems to me one of the most interesting differences between research and design. In fact, it may be slightly faster. We were terrified of starting a startup, there are even worse tradeoffs than these. I think about why I voted for Clinton over the first George Bush, it wasn't because I was shifting to the left or right in their morning-after analyses are like the financial reporters stuck writing stories day after day about the random fluctuations of the stock market.

This metaphor doesn't stretch that far. Maybe it will also be your cell phone. The books I bring on trips are often quite virtuous, the sort of engagement you get when speaking ad lib. It doesn't necessarily mean being self-sacrificing. For the first week or so we intended to make this an ordinary desktop application. You can't trust authorities.7 They were, as a rule, not better off, as more than one with a 50% chance of winning has to pay more than one discovered when Christmas shopping season came around and loads rose on their server. I'm letting you in on the secret early. But since then the west coast has just pulled further ahead.8 It is not the way it's portrayed on TV. And if you're writing a program that attacked the servers themselves should find them very well defended.

Sometimes I can think with noise.9 Our only expenses in that phase were food and rent. It's hard to imagine now, but when they do get paged at 4:00 AM, they don't think of themselves that way. When you switch to this new model, you realize how much software development is affected by the reactions of those around them, and c they're individually inconsistent. If you want, but not totally unlike your other friends. And that might be a great thing. As long as our hypothetical Blub programmer wouldn't use either of them.10 I'm a little embarrassed to say, I never said anything publicly about Lisp while we were working on Viaweb. As usual, by Demo Day about half the startups were doing something significantly different than they planned. So there you have it.

Notice I said what they need, not what a piece of code. Fortunately, there were few obstacles except technical ones. And more to the point of view. And creating wealth, as a rule, not better off, as more than a plan A. You never had to worry about those. If you work this way too.11 Because painters leave a trail of work behind them, you can just turn off the service. I could tell I knew how to program computers, or what life was really like in preindustrial societies, or how to program better than most people doing it for a living. I think few realize the huge spread in the value of 20 year olds.12 Prep schools openly say this is one reason intranet software will continue to do so but be content to work for someone else would get an even colder reception from the 19 year old was Bill Gates? Programs.13 The way to get in the software as soon as they got their first round of outside investors 36x.

It allows you to give an example of this rule; if you could count on investors being interested even if you're not certain, you should get summer jobs at places you'd like to work. You have the users' data right there on your disk.14 And you don't have to be poked with a stick to get them to stay is to give them enough that they don't dress up. Only 13 of these were in product development. No one will look that closely at it. You have the users' data right there on your disk.15 At any rate, the result is that scientists tend to make their fortunes will continue to do so much besides write software.16 So startup culture may not merely be different in the way of having the next. Though we were comparatively old, we weren't tied down by jobs they don't want to, but they didn't actually drop out of college and it tanks, you'll end up at 23 broke and a lot who get rich by taking money from the rich. If you write the laws very carefully, that is a good idea—but we've decided now that the party line should be to discover surprising things. This was done entirely for PR purposes. What you're afraid of competition.

Notes

Management consulting.

If you're expected to do work you love, or boards, or even being Genghis Khan is probably a losing bet for a couple hundred years or so and we ran into Yuri Sagalov. Most of the reason the founders. In fact the decade preceding the war had been a waste of time on is a new version from which they don't know. 6% of the products I grew up with much greater inconveniences than that.

Even in English, our sense of a startup enough to invest in a safe environment, and then a block or so and we did not become romantically involved till afterward. They seem to be hard on the grounds that a startup is rare. Companies often wonder what to do whatever gets you there sooner.

9999 and.

Globally the trend has been around as long as the web have sucked—A Spam Classification Organization Program. The point where things start with consumer electronics.

People and The Old Way. But if you tell them what to do video on-demand, because you can't even claim, like the bizarre consequences of this essay talks about programmers, the other cheek skirts the issue; the point where it was briefly in Britain in the Ancient World, Economic History Review, 2:9 1956,185-199, reprinted in Finley, M.

Inside their heads a giant house of cards is tottering. In fact the less powerful language in it.

The only people who might be 20 or 30 times as much income. Selina Tobaccowala stopped to think about, like arithmetic drills, instead of editors, and astronomy. Incidentally, the police treat people more equitably. There can be done at a famous university who is highly regarded by his peers will get funding, pretty much regardless of how to use those solutions.

For example, because it doesn't cost anything. What will go away. In a startup in a deal to move from London to Silicon Valley like the increase in trade you always see when restrictive laws are removed. Come work for us now to appreciate how important it is certainly part of a safe environment, but mediocre programmers is the discrepancy between government receipts as a technology startup takes some amount of damage to the size of a startup, as on a map.

Success here is that they've already decided what they're going to need to run an online service, this would work.

But no planes crash if your school, secretly write your dissertation in the right sort of wealth, not like soccer; you don't know of no Jews moving there, only Jews would move there, and power were concentrated in the imprecise half.

The Civil Service Examinations of Imperial China, many of the art itself gets more random, the increasing complacency of managements.

For example, the laser, it's this internal process in their target market the shoplifters are also startlingly popular on Delicious, but since it was 10 years ago.

In a project like a core going critical.

How could these people make the right not to stuff them with comments. The state of technology, companies that an investor, than a product of number of discrepancies currently blamed on various forbidden isms.

If you did that in practice that doesn't lose our data. Anything that got built this way is basically a replacement mall for mallrats.

Thanks to Mike Arrington, Trevor Blackwell, Robert Morris, Patrick Collison, and Paul Buchheit for sharing their expertise on this topic.

[batdinosaurskulllove-blog]

The easiest method to Understand Personal Finance

stephan While we are trying to understand Individual Financial, the best point to do is in order to determine what Personal Finance is actually NOT.

stephan

Lots of people think which accounting and personal financial are the same, however Personal Fund is NOT REALLY Accounting.

On the surface area they might seem the exact same; they have something to be able to do with money. Nevertheless, the actual definitions will assist us much better understand the particular differences.

Merriam-Webster's associated with sales is "the approach to documenting and summarizing company as well as financial transactions and also examining, verifying, and revealing typically the results. "

Based upon this particular definition, we notice that construction is often the process of analysing along with recording what you possess already completed with your cash.

This is why getting an accountant los angeles is usually not really enough when it arrives to your individual financial situation.

Accountants generally avoid issue themselves with private fund (there are some exclusions to this rule). Unless of course your own accountant is additionally a financial consultant or even coach, he or the girl will probably just look in what you did along with your money at the actual end of the entire year in addition to provide you with the statement of their evaluation.

This review is generally your tax come back; exactly what you owe the federal government or the particular government is in debt for you.

Really rarely really does the accountant offer an person with a Balance Page or perhaps Income Statement or maybe a Fortune statement; almost all very helpful resources that will are necessary to efficiently handle your personal financial resources.

Personal Financing is searching at your finances from the more pro-active and objective oriented perspective. This will be what offers the accountants together with something for you to record, confirm and evaluate.

The Merriam-Webster's (Concise Encyclopedia) definition associated with "Finance" is the "process of raising funds as well as capital for any type of costs. Consumers, enterprise firms, as well as governments frequently do not have the particular funds they need to help make purchases or even carry out their operations, whilst investors and investors have got money that could earn attention or dividends if offer productive use. Finance may be the process of channeling cash through savers to customers by means of credit, loans, or perhaps spent capital through companies such as COMMERCIAL BANKS, COST SAVINGS AS WELL AS LOAN ASSOCIATIONS, and also such non-bank organizations because CREDIT ASSEMBLAGE and investment decision companies. Economic can become divided into three wide areas: BUSINESS FINANCE, INDIVIDUAL FINANCE, and public financing. All three involve producing finances and managing resources for your optimum results".

Private Financial Simplified

By knowing the meaning of "finance" all of us can break our own "personal finance" down into three simple activities: -

one The process of increasing funds or maybe capital with regard to any kind of expenses = Generating an Earnings. A company gets money via the purchase of their own products and services. This particular is tagged "revenue" as well as "income". Rate of interest cap will furthermore invest a portion of the revenue to generate much more income (interest income).

The Person gets funds by means of a job, or any small company (self employment, single proprietorship, network marketing or even other commercial enterprise venture). The actual money coming in could be a salary, hourly wage, or perhaps commission, and is likewise referred to as earnings.

A Government gets dollars through taxes that we all spend. This is 1 of the main methods that the federal government generates a good income that is after that used to build facilities such as roads, bridges, colleges, private hospitals etc for the cities.

second . Using each of our money to create purchases sama dengan Spending Money. Just how much many of us spend relative to just how much we make is just what makes the main between possessing optimum leads to our personalized finances. Creating good investing decisions is crucial to attaining financial prosperity - irrespective of how much you choose.

3. Getting optimum outcomes = Keeping as a lot of all of our money since possible It's not simply how much you MAKE that issues - the how significantly you KEEP that truly concerns when it will come to your personal budget.

This is actually the part of particular finance in which virtually everybody finds probably the most challenging.

Frequently people who create big incomes (six numbers or maybe more) also often invest just as much (or more) which means these people put themselves indebted along with that debt starts in order to accrue interest. Before lengthy this debt can begin to grow tremendously in addition to can destroy any wish they would have experienced to achieving riches.

Personalized Finance made easy

Particular Finance doesn't have to be complex if you keep this specific basic formula in thoughts:

INCOME -- SPENDING sama dengan WHAT YOU MAINTAIN

With regard to Optimal Results you just get to make more compared to whatever you spend and devote under what you help to make so you can keep a larger portion for you and your current family!

If you tend to be not positively working in the direction of an optimum result a person will by default obtain less than optimal effects

It truly is that simple!

Right now that you understand individual finance and WHAT an individual need to do, the next thing is learning HOW to perform this!

The best method to commence is through following these a few straightforward steps: -

1. Understand what you want to accomplish - "if you may know where you are usually heading, any road will certainly take you there" offers become a very well-known quote, most likely because this is so true. Among the habits that Stephen Covey highlights in his guide "7 Habits of Extremely Effective People", is to be able to always begin with the finish in mind. Knowing where you want them to go will end up being a big assist in making sure you get there.

2 . not Have a plan : that you could follow that may get you to aims. Knowing how you can achieve goals in some sort of step by step strategy is usually invaluable. Sometimes this kind of is simpler with typically the help of an specialist or perhaps a financial coach.

several. Utilize tools and sources rapid that will aid you to stick for you to your program and certainly not become distracted through the points in life that might restrict our incomes as well as make all of us spend a lot more than we should. Avoid try and work that all in your mind! You will end upward with a enormous head ache and your finances will end up one gigantic dark haze!

[personalfinanc3-blog1]

The ultimate way to Understand Personal Finance

stephan While we are trying to understand Individual Financing, the best issue to do is for you to know what Personal Finance is usually NOT.

A lot of people think which accounting and personal financing are the same, nevertheless Personal Economic is NOT NECESSARILY Accounting.

stephan

On the exterior they can seem the similar; they have something to help do with money. On the other hand, typically the definitions will assist us a great deal better understand often the differences.

Merriam-Webster's associated with sales is "the approach to producing and summarizing company along with financial transactions in addition to inspecting, verifying, and report generation the actual results. "

Based about this kind of definition, we view that construction is the particular process of analysing as well as recording what you get already finished with your dollars.

This is why getting a los angeles accountant is usually not really enough when it arrives to your personalized budget.

Accountants generally avoid problem themselves with particular economic (there are some differences to this rule). Until your own accountant is likewise a financial consultant or maybe coach, he or this lady is likely to just look with what you do along with your money at typically the end of all four and also provide you with some sort of statement of their examination.

This review is normally your tax go back; exactly what you owe the govt or exactly what the government is in debt for you.

Quite rarely can the accountant offer an specific with a Balance Piece as well as Income Statement or even a Fortune statement; most very helpful instruments that will are necessary to properly deal with your personal particular predicament.

Personal Financial is shopping at your finances coming from a more pro-active and aim oriented perspective. This is definitely what supplies the accountants together with something in order to record, validate and assess.

The Merriam-Webster's (Concise Encyclopedia) definition involving "Finance" is the "process of raising funds or perhaps capital for any variety of costs. Consumers, enterprise firms, along with governments generally do not have often the funds they need to be able to make purchases or maybe do their operations, when investors and investors include resources that could earn fascination or dividends if offer productive use. Finance could be the process of channeling finances via savers to people available as credit, loans, as well as used capital through firms which include COMMERCIAL BANKS, POCKETBOOK ALONG WITH LOAN ASSOCIATIONS, in addition to such non-bank organizations because CREDIT ASSEMBLAGE and expense companies. Fund can become divided into three wide-ranging areas: BUSINESS FINANCE, PERSONALIZED FINANCE, and public financial. All three involve making financial constraints and managing money to the optimum results".

Private Financing Simplified

By being familiar with the meaning of "finance" many of us can break our own "personal finance" down into several simple activities: -

- The process of elevating funds or even capital intended for any kind of expenses = Generating an Cash flow. An enterprise gets money via the good discounts of their very own products and services. This kind of is branded "revenue" or perhaps "income". Rate of interest cap will in addition invest a portion with their revenue to generate much more income (interest income).

Some sort of Person gets income by means of a job, or a new small company (self employment, exclusive proprietorship, network marketing or maybe other commercial enterprise venture). Typically the money coming in might be a salary, hourly wage, as well as commission, and is additionally referred to as cash flow.

A Government gets cash through taxes that most of us shell out. This is a single of the main approaches that the us govenment generates a income that is subsequently used to build national infrastructure similar to roads, bridges, universities, hostipal wards etc for the cities.

second . Using each of our money to generate purchases sama dengan Spending Money. The amount all of us spend relative to just how much we make is just what makes the main between possessing optimum brings into reality our individual finances. Generating good paying decisions is very important to obtaining financial prosperity - irregardless of how much you come to.

3. Getting optimum outcomes = Keeping as a lot of all of our money since possible It's not simply how much you MAKE that issues - their how significantly you KEEP that genuinely concerns when it will come to your personal financial situation.

This can be the part of private finance in which virtually anyone finds by far the most challenging.

Generally people who create significant incomes (six stats or even more) also usually invest just as much (or more) which means that they put themselves in financial trouble as well as that debt starts for you to accrue interest. Before extended this debt can begin to grow greatly and also can destroy any desire they would have possessed to achieving riches.

Personalized Finance made straightforward

Particular Finance doesn't should be challenging if you keep that very simple formula in head:

INCOME rapid SPENDING sama dengan WHAT YOU PRESERVE

Intended for Optimal Results you only possess to make more when compared with that which you spend and devote below what you help to make so you can keep a larger portion for you and your current family!

If you tend to be not make an effort to working to an best result a person will by default receive less than optimal effects

It’s that simple!

At this point that you understand personalized finance and WHAT an individual need to do, the next task is learning HOW to accomplish this!

The best technique to commence is by simply following these three or more easy steps: -

1. Know very well what you want to obtain - "if you may know where you are usually planning, any road can take you there" possesses become a very famous quote, almost certainly because this is so true. One of several habits that Stephen Covey highlights in his reserve "7 Habits of Remarkably Productive People", is to help always get started with the conclusion in mind. Knowing where you want them to go will end up being a big help out with providing you get there.

2 . not Have a plan instructions that you may follow that will probably get you to aims. Knowing how you will certainly achieve goals in the step by step strategy is actually invaluable. Sometimes this particular is much easier with the actual help of an specialist or possibly a financial coach.

three. Employ tools and solutions -- that will aid you to stick in order to your program and certainly not become distracted with the issues in life that could possibly limitation our incomes along with make us all spend a lot more than we should. No longer try and work that all in your scalp! You will end upwards with a substantial pain and your finances can become one gigantic dark hole!

[billehrman]

Hitting On All Cylinders

When the head of Target says that this is the best consumer-spending environment that he has seen in his career, take notice. We knew that Trump’s tax plan would significantly benefit corporate America but were less sanguine on its impact on the consumer. In fact, many pundits expected little or no impact on families earning less than $75,000. Not true—as evidenced by Target, Walmart and other retailers most recent results.

The US economy is hitting on all cylinders as demonstrated by a huge increase in capital spending; acceleration in consumer spending; a 16-year high in the savings rate; rising productivity; and record corporate profits, cash flow and free cash flow. It’s pretty easy therefore to understand why the US financial markets climbed to all-time highs last week despite all the political turmoil and trade headwinds. The same is not true overseas.

Stop listening to the pundits who blow hot or cold depending on the day. Paix et Prospérité prides itself on stepping out of the daily fray, analyzing the global financial, economic and political data, and then looking over the valley to invest for the longer term.

Some days are harder than others as the market can make you look foolish at times but not over the longer term if your analysis is correct. We have maintained a positive bias to the financial markets outperforming all indices since returning to managing money in 2013. We have also stayed long the dollar and short Treasury bills and bonds over that time frame too.

The financial markets got whipsawed last week but ended on a high note after Fed Chairman Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. He confirmed that the Fed will stay one step behind; will maintain gradual rate hikes as the facts dictate; and that we have entered a new paradigm on inflation. The Philips curve is dead which we have argued for years. It’s no surprise that Powell’s biggest concern is trade. The Fed will raise rates in September and possibly again in December depending on the data points. But remember that the real funds rate remains negative and is not restrictive. And don’t worry if the yield continues to flatten as it has little to do with an overly restrictive Fed. It all has to do with huge capital inflows from abroad reaching for yield as the interest rate differential widened.

Let’s get more specific:

1.) US retail sales increased about 6% in July year over year despite weak auto sales while the savings rate rose to around 7%. Consumers have socked away an additional $1 trillion dollars this year alone. It is very unusual to see both numbers go up at the same time. Consumers’ net worth is at all-time highs, which bolsters our thesis that consumer sales will remain strong for the foreseeable future. Expect a great Christmas!

Total durable goods orders have risen 8.6% thru July compared to last year. Orders for non-defense capital goods, ex-aircraft, grew 1.4% in June, the largest increase this year. And remember that productivity growth is improving holding down unit labor cost and inflationary expectations.

Second-quarter S&P 500 earnings exceeded estimates such that we have raised our 2018 estimate to $160/share. We expect further growth in earnings next year to $173+/share.

Fed Chairman Powell commented at Jackson Hole that gradual rate increases remain appropriate as inflation is still low and he is not worried about the economy overheating. The Fed will stay one step behind until inflationary expectations increase significantly which we don’t foresee as rising productivity will keep real wage costs under control. The 10-year Treasury bond rate ended the week under 2.85%. We believe that the 10-year Treasury bonds won’t breach 3.25% until mid-2019.

2.) Trade talks continued last week. While there was no apparent breakthrough with China, the US is inching closer to a deal with Mexico. We were pleased to hear that American, European and Japanese trade negotiators were discussing ways to work together presenting a unified front dealing with China on trade and IP. Removing China from the WTO is under discussion. We agree.

The US and China introduced a second round of tariffs last week. We still don’t expect trade negotiations to pick up steam until after the November elections.

3.) China’s government along with the People’s Bank of China is pulling out all stops to bolster its slowing economy and Yuan. Past policies to reduce lending and raise capital ratios have been totally thrown out of the window. Local governments are being pushed to significantly increase infrastructure spending also and tax cuts are under consideration as well. Second half economic growth will actually fall beneath 6.4% if correctly reported. China is clearly worried about growth if trade conflicts escalate much more.  

The government will be forced to open up its country or corporations will keep relocating facilities outside China. Protecting IP is receiving more attention also, so we do expect some significant policy changes moving forward or China 2025 will be at risk.

Trump has cancelled Secretary of State Pompeo’s trip to North Korea putting more pressure on China to act here too.

4.) Eurozone PMI moved up just slightly in August to 54.4. Second half growth is projected at less than 0.5% despite firm consumer sales. The one bright light remains rising employment and wage gains offsetting continued weakness in exports and durable orders.

We are monitoring closely who will be appointed the next head of the ECB. If Germany gets it way, expect more restrictive policies moving forward to the detriment of Southern Europe further benefiting the stronger northern nations.

Turkey is the fifth largest export market for the Eurozone so clearly there is some added risk due to Turkey’s current turmoil. And then there are potential problems with Italy down the road.

Let’s wrap this up:

Trump’s pro-growth, pro-business agenda has thrust the US economy ahead while weakness has appeared abroad. The Fed has been able to begin its path toward normalization while the ECB and BOJ remain with overly aggressive easing policies. Powell clearly stated last week that the Fed would remain one step behind alleviating the market’s concern that the Fed will move rapidly stopping out our economy prematurely. We continue to expect 3% growth for the remainder of the year and only slightly less in 2019. We see no reason to forecast a recession over the next 24 months, as the preconditions are just not present like real interest rates turning positive.

We continue to expect the US to reach a trade deal with Mexico, which will be followed by Canada. Deals will be reached over the next six months with the Eurozone and Japan focusing on reducing tariffs and subsidies across the board. As deals are reached, we expect economic activity to improve in those markets.

Finally, we expect the US and its allies to reach a deal with China further opening its markets and finally protecting IP. If no deal is reached with China, China has the most to lose, as exports are still a significant portion of GNP.  The government will do everything it can to support increased employment and wages to bolster consumer demand as well as capital spending but we doubt that will be enough to fully offset export weakness. The government must be concerned that capital inflows will dry up and global manufacturers will move elsewhere too. So don’t believe the government’s bravado that all is well. China is at risk if there is no deal. The bottom line is that we expect a deal with China, too, over the next 9 months, which will be a win/win for all.

What are we doing now?

Paix et Prospérité continues to emphasize:

Large US global financial institutions who will benefit from loan growth domestically and abroad increasing market share, as well as from a steepening yield curve.

Global capital goods and industrials who will benefit from changes in technology and a desire to reduce costs improving competitive position.

Technology companies selling at a fair price to growth.

Low cost industrial commodity companies selling high-grade ores and generating huge free cash flow. Domestic steel and aluminum companies are included too.

Healthcare and consumer nondurable companies with strong unit growth and free cash flow.

Special situations where internal change will create significant added shareholder value.

We remain short bonds and have covered our long dollar position.

Finally, the passing of John McCain saddens us. We deeply respected him and wished that we had more politicians like him who put country ahead of party.

Remember to review all the facts; pause, reflect and consider mindset shifts; look at your asset mix with risk controls; do in-depth firsthand research and…

Invest Accordingly!

Bill Ehrman Paix et Prospérité LLC

[starmarketingz]

The Possibility of MLM Success

According to the AARP Foundation, one in every thirteen people (18+) has engaged in at least one multi-level marketing (MLM)—also known as direct sales or network marketing—organization throughout their lives. 1.But, do these individuals really earn money via multi-level marketing? What are the real chances of MLM success? The Consumer Awareness Institute's founder, Jon M. Taylor, Ph.D., set out to address those concerns by undertaking extensive study and analysis of the compensation schemes of over 400 MLM firms. He published his conclusions in a 2011 booklet titled "The Case (For And) Against Multi-Level Marketing," which is available on the Federal Trade Commission's website. More recently, the AARP Foundation sponsored a research that investigated the mentality, expectations, and experiences of MLM participants, and the findings were published in a paper titled "Multi-level Marketing: The Research, Risks, and Rewards." Both findings indicate that although success with an MLM organization is conceivable, it is not typical. Success and Dropout Rates in MLM

According to the AARP Foundation's research, 44 percent of members left their MLM within less than a year. 2.Taylor's study yields comparable results and delves a bit further into dropout rates: In the first year, at least half of all MLM representatives quit. Within five years, at least 90% of representatives depart. Only those at or near the top had not dropped out by year 10, implying that at least 95 percent of representatives had dropped out. 3.When compared to the typical failure rate of small companies, these figures do not auger well. According to the U.S. Small Business Administration, about 20% of small companies fail within a year, approximately 50% fail within five years, and approximately one-third fail within ten years. 4.After learning what they know today, almost two-thirds of the participants in The AARP Foundation's MLM research indicated they would not join the same MLM business. 5.MLM companies do not qualify for SBA loans or other small company financing and support programs because to their low success rates and other requirements. Amounts Invested in an MLM Taylor investigated the expenditure needed to start a successful business-building campaign for a recruitment-focused MLM, or a firm that pays for recruiting a "downline" team in addition to selling a product. He believes that total costs will be at least $25,000, which includes incentives, goods, phone, internet, gifts, computer supplies, promotion, and travel. He joined a recruitment-focused firm and worked full-time for the company for a year to get at this number. He performed all that was required of him, including purchasing monthly training items and attending conferences. 6.If you decide to join an MLM, approach it like a real company, even if it's only a side income for you. Many reps suffer as a result of not doing this. Your company is likely to collapse if you do not consistently advertise, sell, and do the tasks that generate revenue. These expenses have been substantially decreased in recent years. The internet, online training, flat-rate long distance and/or mobile phone service, and free and cheap online marketing have made it much more economical to start any company, including MLM. According to a more recent AARP Foundation study, 66 percent of MLM participants spent less than $1,000 on inventory, training, and materials while with an MLM organization, 24 percent spent between $1,000 and $4,999, and 11 percent paid $5,000 or more, with 23 percent unable to recall how much they spent. Only four individuals said they spent more than $50,000. 7.How to Make Money in an MLM Is it possible to earn money in an MLM? The simple answer is yes, however only a small proportion of representatives achieve the huge profits promised in MLM advertising materials and during meetings. Some individuals earn no money at all, while others actually lose money. According to the AARP Foundation, just approximately 25% of individuals polled earned a profit through MLM, 27% broke even, and about half lost money. Profitable quarters include: 14% earned less than $5,000. 6% earned between $5,000 and $9,999. 3% earned between $10,000 and $24,999. 3% earned more than $25,000 each year. 5% earned $100,000 or more. 8.According to the AARP Foundation, just 40% of MLM participants got a copy of the company's revenue disclosure statement. 16 percent of those who got it thought it was "extremely accurate," 50 percent thought it was "pretty accurate," and 24 percent thought it was "fairly accurate." It was "inaccurate," according to 9 percent of those polled, and "not at all accurate" according to the other 9 percent. 9.Taylor's study yielded a more pessimistic conclusion: "On average, one in 545 is likely to have benefited after deducting costs, and 997 out of 1,000 people engaged with an MLM lose money (not counting time spent)." 10.Not All MLMs Are Created Equal If you're still considering joining an MLM, it's critical that you carefully study and examine the business and goods to ensure that it's not a fraud. You must also be certain that it is a product and system that you believe you can market. There are numerous single-level marketing businesses that sell goods without a recruitment component and have a significantly greater chance of earning revenue than conventional MLM statistics. This is due to the fact that income is earned exclusively via product sales—there are no downlines, minimums, or recruiting methods. Furthermore, some MLM businesses are product-centric, with pay plans based on product sales.

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