#i cant do that without initial data analysis

[opens-up-4-nobody]

...

[barry41hendriksen-blog]

The Hemingway You Failed to Know

There are actually the books you go through, and afterwards there are actually the books that modify your life. In 2002, I wrote a scientific report covering this topic, and my analysis presented that contemporary Paleo Diets give our company with simply around 70% of the regular recommended calcium mineral consumption.23 Provided this evolutionary hint, then it is actually not be shocking to discover that the supra-normal intakes from calcium that could be attained through dairy as well as dairy products consumption may merely create unexpected illness. About 11% from the U.S. population supplement their diets along with antioxidants daily, whereas this variety rises to practically TWENTY% in grownups 55 years of age and also much older.27 A near universal assumption along with many antioxidant customers is actually that these nutrients raise life expectancy as well as might prevent cancer, heart problem and whatever else ails them.34, 35 This goes without claiming - more is actually almost always thought to be actually much better. The noodles are actually offered in bulk plans of like 10 if you are buying all of them online. The nice aspect of them is that while they come ready to eat (no food preparation necessary), in the sense that you can basically consume them from the bag if you definitely intended to (although you probably won't very do that), they still possess a life span from concerning 1 year, therefore you it exercises only find to purchase them wholesale due to the fact that they last for very a long time. Joining us tonight: business economics instructor and also social policy analysist Deborah Cobb-Carr - Clark, I ask your excuse; Boyer teacher and president of the Planet Medical Organization, Mam Michael Marmot; Notre Dame University's Christine Bennett, that led Kevin Rudd's Medical center Reform Percentage; Chair from the Head of state's Indigenous Advisory Authorities Warren Mundine; as well as the crown from the Australian Authorities of Social Solution Cassandra Goldie. Then there is actually the 2nd threat from hero worship, profession experts usually cant externalise just what they internalise, the force of habit is incredibly challenging to instruct and this holds true throughout industries as Erik Cosselmon Exec Chef from Kokkari my favorite Greek Dining establishment in San Francisco stated to me when I performed my novice doubting the trouble with me is that I have actually regularly been a chef, I don't bear in mind ever desiring to be something else. I learn about the happiness from theoretical nonmonogamy, which is actually when 2 people state they remain in an available partnership-- yet as opposed to in fact sleeping with other people, they only get to do not hesitate knowing they have the choice to do thus. There's the envy test, which you pass if you manage to possess a severe partnership with an individual who is actually copulating other individuals or even crazy along with someone else.

The pattern of the hero's experience materializes on its own in the initiation rites that groups all over the world utilized to start a boy into male organ: a child would certainly divide themselves coming from the relaxed world of his mama, gather along with male coaches, undertake a very painful examination of capability and/or durability, pass away to his immaturity, rise to his manhood, and also go back to the group both along with higher duties-- devoted to serve and also to give up-- and also along with new freedoms. If you are looking at adopting a vegetarian diet because you think it could enhance your general health and wellness as well as wellbeing, my instant recommendations to you would certainly be to neglect it. I advise you to regularly let the data represent itself, as well as don't listen to me or even anybody else up until you have actually properly scrutinized each sides of the or every other dietary argument. Which is actually daddy to say that these people, which through their account are better off lifeless than the method they currently are, can not determine to assume the risks this medicine or even that for the option of discovering comfort, at the opportunity from switching coming from I desire I might just die, yet I can't eliminate myself" to Ah, finally, I can easily view the globe precisely again without the stunning veil of my physical body's suffering." That is anyone to take that chance far from an individual. The energy that has remaining in a team of fully commited similar individuals clearly boosts the instruction process, and also in some cases allows professional athletes to carry out much more than they might by themselves or do the exact same job more effectively," claims Joe Filliol, the coach from the JFTcrew, an instruction squad that over the last 4 years has actually produced 38 Globe Triathlon Series platform coatings, 9 Olympians, and a planet champion. There is Home Page throwing up false information about carrageenan, I have no doubt that there are folks with valid hatreds carrageenan just like there are actually individuals along with allergies to peanuts, latex, as well as many various other things, my aspect is that carrageenan that is used in foodstuff is not carcinogenic, if I believed that was I will prevent that myself. They carry out. They absolutely appear delectable and also I assume that that is among the misconceptions along with Paleo is that you are actually going to eat a significant slab of reddish meat product which's just what you'll perform. No, Paleo's all about salads and veggies and also fruit products as well as various mixtures of each of these and also not merely do they only look appetizing is actually that the discussions are terrific on these as well as the photos and this's only impressive.

[pingproxies]

Proxy, All You Required To Know

Today we are mosting likely to talk about proxies.

finishline proxies

You respect your safety and security? You wish to speed up your downloads? Your company has a proxy and also you cant attach to some internet sites? or perhaps you just want to discover.

 If you feel determined by a few of those questions then you must read this guide.

 ¿ What is a proxy web server?

 A proxy web server is a type of buffer in between your computer system and also the Web resources you are accessing. The data you request pertained to the proxy initially, and only then it sends the information to you.

 What is an anonymous proxy web server?

captcha proxies

Anonymous proxy web servers hide your IP address as well as therefore avoid your from unauthorized access to your computer with the Web. They do not give any person with your IP address and also efficiently conceal any type of info regarding you as well as your analysis interests. Besides that, they do not even let any individual know that you are surfing through a proxy server. Anonymous proxy servers can be utilized for all sort of Web-services, such as Web-Mail (MSN Hot Mail, Yahoo mail), web-chat rooms, FTP archives, etc

 . Why should I use proxy web servers?

 1) Transfer speed enhancement. Proxy web servers accumulate and also save files that are frequently requested by thousands of Net customers in a special data source, called 'cache'. For that reason, proxy web servers have the ability to enhance the rate of your link to the Web. The cache of a proxy server might currently have details you require by the time of your demand, making it feasible for the proxy to provide it promptly.

 2) Security and personal privacy. Confidential proxy web servers that hide your IP address thus saving you from vulnerabilities interested in it.

 3) Often you may encounter issues while accessing to web server when server manager limited access from your IP and even from vast IP variety (for example restricting access from particular nations or geographical areas). So you try to access those pages utilizing a confidential proxy server.

 What kinds of public proxy web server exist?

 1) Clear - HTTP proxy server discloses all. Usable only for transfer rate improvement.

 2) Anonymous - HTTP proxy web server does not send out any variables with your genuine IP to host, however it sends variables suggesting that you are making use of proxy.

 3) High Anonymity - HTTP proxy web server does not send ANY variables indicating that you are making use of proxy web server to host.

 Is it lawful to surf through open proxies?

 Regarding i can tell, the response is of course. The key disagreement versus open proxies is that their proprietors may not have intended for them to be utilized by the public. Nonetheless, by running a service on a machine available to the general public, without restricting accessibility to that service, the device's administrator is unconditionally consenting for that service to be made use of by the public. A proxy server is similar to a web server, an FTP server, or any type of other internet service: if it's running as well as approving links, it's level playing field. The net is a public network

 Are there dangerous proxies?

 Yes.

First, there are servers of government organisations (FBI, CIA, NASA and so on) and companies working close with federal/state and also company law enforcement.

Second, there are hackers.

And don't think those proxy checkers (also pay ones) informing you "we filter all unsafe proxies". It's difficult. No one can tell you if that proxy you are using is checked or not.

 Where do i get a proxy?

 There are several means of getting them, fastest means is to Google for "proxy listing", you will certainly find some updated everyday proxy listings. There are programs available as well that do the job, you just need to check out a bit.

[kathrynmjaneway]

So I was watching End Of Days earlier and (even though I’m sure that this has been discussed before) I couldn’t help but notice during the scene where they first see Abbadon and Gwen asks Jack to tell her what to do, Jack looks from Gwen to Ianto (who’s he’s still holding onto :’)) and then to Owen and then finally back to Gwen. And only then, he says ‘Just you, take me to an open field’ (or something like that, cant recall the exact quote).

And what gets me is that Jack knows exactly what he needs to do probably before Gwen even asked him. But he needed someone to take him to that open field to face Abbadon.

So his first thought is that Ianto could take him. But he dismisses that idea (rather quickly!) - Ianto most likely would have put up too much of a fight. Ianto wouldn’t let Jack go into his death like that (theories aside that Ianto could have found out about Jack’s immortality much earlier). After all, Ianto just saw Jack die and come back to life canonically for the first time. Ianto is too close to Jack - emotionally. I don’t think either of them could have beared the thought (and emotional trauma) of Ianto witnessing Jack’s death again, so soon after the first time. Jack doesn’t need anything (or anyone!!) additional to worry about in this situation.

His next thought is Owen - Owen killed him before, so of course there’d be the initial thought of maybe Owen being the ideal candidate to bring him to his next death. But obviously Jack dismisses that idea as well. We know that Jack forgives Owen for killing him, we know (or at least we can be relatively sure) that Jack understands why Owen felt like he had to do it. Jack surely already knows/can guess how guilty Owen must feel about it. No, Jack wouldn’t make Owen go through that again. Killing your boss twice in one day would be a little overkill. (No pun intended, but well….)

Jack doesnt even consider Tosh, his gaze doesn’t linger on her at all. He definitely doesn’t want Tosh to be in a situation like this, knowing that Tosh probably already feels guilty enough for helping Owen and the rest of the team with opening the rift. She is to fragile, too soft for this. He doesn’t want to hurt her.

In the end Jack chooses Gwen. She is the one person who has seen Jack die and come back to live with her own eyes before the events on this episode. She is the person who probably was able to really realize the fact that Jack can die but doesnt stay dead. And because of all that and because she -despite her faults- still has that hope in her, that belief that there is still a way that it can end well

- which I think the other’s don’t have anymore, at least not to the same degree. Ianto’s hopes and dreams shattered with the Battle and Lisa’s death, Owen’s when Katie died and then again when Diane left, and Tosh got broken by her time at the UNIT prison. None of them are dreamers, Ianto is a realist, Owen is a pessimist and Tosh relies on her technical data/is also a realist (to make this really short amd without an in depth analysis of them)

Gwen isn’t a realist. She wants there to be a way to make everything alright again, to bring back Rhys (!!!) and she’ll do anything to make sure there is some kind of good/happy ending. Yes, she still puts up a bit of fight when she realizes what Jack is about to do, but she believes in Jack and she believes that he’ll come back to her, to the team. She has hope.

It’s probably comparable to the five stages of grief. Gwen is still in denial about Rhys’ death and the world possibly ending, while Ianto, Owen and Tosh have already reached the stage of acceptance in relation to their own lowest point in their life (Canary Wharf/Lisa, losing Katie & Diane, UNIT prison), but also in relation to the events of this episode. For them it’s not the first time that everything in their lives seems to go to hell, but for Gwen it is the first time that she really experiences something traumatic and has to face the consequences- which, as I said, she doesn’t want to. She doesn’t want to face the truth of the situation, so she is willing to fight against it.

And Jack knows all this, which in the end is the reason he chooses Gwen to go eith him, and not, for example Ianto, even though they are arguably much closer.

This is actually a characteristic of Gwen that I really like about her. Yes, sometimes her faith in the good in people and hope/belief that she can make it better isn’t always called for and often she is too naive about situations (like in Adrift), but she means well and I think that this really IS something that Torchwood needs sometimes - that optimism. Unlike the others, she hasn’t been broken yet by Torchwood and all the bad in the universe (at this point in season 1).

And in terms of that it’s really interesting and also sad to see how Gwen changes and gets harder the longer she works for Torchwood, especially after Owen and Tosh died and then after everything that happened in CoE. She still wants to make it right again, save the world - the whole team still always does as well!- but she now has seen how bad things can really get, she had to face the consequences, she lost close friends. Gwen had to grow up, in a sense. She changed, forged by the terrible things that happened to her and the people around her, much like Jack, Ianto, Owen and Tosh were changed by the things that they had to live through.

(Yes, Gwen still isn’t my favourite character and I think the writers really at time misjudged her character and the potential she had and didn’t always treat her character well, and Gwen makes bad choices, has a ton of flaws, but this character developement of her’s really is good, I think, and the reason why I like her a lot more in stories that take place after season 2)

Gwen is thrown into this whole new world with so many new possibilities that threaten to destroy her view of the world. She needed to find her place in this new world, while she wanted to be open to all the new and wonderful things while simultaneously holding on to everything she knew before she joined Torchwood.

[vigrxwarning]

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[bombardthehq]

Observation Reconsidered Jerry Fodor, written 1984, read 9.06.20-18.06.20

fodor's Granny hopes to counter claims that observation is theory-laden

she says: there are two roads to "the fixation of belief" (following Peirce?)

those based on observation those based on inference

there is a 'corresponding taxonomy of beliefs': observational beliefs and inferential beliefs

observation is the more reliable than inference because there are fewer steps to fixing belief; hence, we try to rely on observations (eg. in the sciences)

but some things are inaccessible to observation, eg. ultraviolet light, so inference must be used

observation is important in settling disputes; if we disagree on matters of inference, we can only say we prefer one theory for another. If we disagree on observation, we can simply look and see for ourselves who is right

Fodor takes back the mic...

he wants to defend this view against 'widely endorsed' arguments against drawing a clean theory/observation distinction

so for fodor, observational beliefs are 'theory neutral'

there are three arguements against this view:

ordinary language arguments meaning holism arguments de facto psychological arguments (a fourth 'ontological' argument is excluded as non-realist)

1. THE ORDINARY LANGUAGE ARGUMENT

Fodor says the main contention of the paper is that "there is a theory-neutral observation/inference distinction" & the boundary is set by "fixed, architectural features of an organism's sensory/perceptual psychology"

this is not however how scientists see it / talk about things

the distinction scientists make between observation & inference is 'relativized to the inquiry at hand'

what an experimenter calls an observation depends on the assumptions the experiment makes, eg. response times are taken by measuring a clock, so checking the clock is a way of observing the response times; but if the clock is broken...

this is a concession to an epistemic fact: not every element of the experiment can be tested, they rely on things which are assumed to work in a certain way, such as the clock- the tests of these assumptions have happened elsewhere

however, even if they use it this way, this doesnt 'settle the case against Granny'

she argues that while actual experimenting scientists observations are theory-relative; but there is still a theory/inference distinction outside of 'ordinary language' that no lingustic considerations can decide

ie. we have to do more than socio-linguistic analysis of working scientists [why? where does the theory-inference distinction ever come up outside of actual observations?]

2. ARGUMENTS FROM MEANING HOLISM

he outlines a complicated picture of a graph which represents a theory with each node its entailiments etc. that I dont need to reproduce

what happens is that if one presupposition is displaced, the whole graph distorts

so the 'minimal context' of the meaning of any theoretical postulate is the *whole theory*

he says this argument has done a lot of work for skeptical philosophers since Quine's two dogmas

its possible to accept this holism (which 'granny and I do not') while defending an observation/inference distinction, eg. an epistemic rather than semantic distinction - every statement gets its meaning from its theoretical context, but some depend on more empirical confirmation than others; Quine takes this view

but the observations can never be theory neutral, because what your "observation sentences" mean depends on what your theory is

he gives Paul Churchland as one defender of this view: "[observation terms] position in semantic space appears to be determined by the network of sentences contaning them accepted by the speakers who use them" - sensation itself cant determine the meaing of an 'observation term', only 'networks of belief'

"as we saw, we are left with networks of belief as the bearers or de- terminants of understanding .  .  .  (p. 13). . . a child's initial (stimulus-response) use of, say, 'white' as a re- sponse to the familiar kind of sensation, provides that term with no semantic identity. It acquires a  semantic identity as, and only as, it comes to figure in a network of beliefs and a  correlative pattern of inferences. Depending on what that acquired network happens to be, that term could come to mean white or hot . . ., or an infinity of other things (14). " (churchland)

so an observation sentence could mean anything depending on theoretical context

Fodor claims this means that “anything might be an observation sentence depending on theoretical context or, material mode, that anything might be observed depending upon theoretical context."

this means you can change your observational capacities by changing your theories

for Fodor this already means that for meaning holism there cannot be a class of beliefs that must be inferential regardless of what theories the believer espouses, because they could always become given meaning by a theory which renders them observational statements [I'm not really sure about this line of argument; why can inference statements always become observations? or: isn't it simply that if I say 'white' and it means a colour, and someone says 'white' and it means a temperature, we have said different things? that the same words, mere words, might refer in one context to an observation and in another to an inference doesn't seem that interesting to me]

Fodor says that recent causal semantic theories may be indicating that holism is not true; not all meanings are dependant on their theoretical context

some of their semantic properties are dependant on their reationship to the world empirically [no footnote! excuse me??? where can I read more about this??]

so Churchland argues: if statements do not get their meanings from their connections with sensations, they must get them from a theoretical context. But neither are the case.

so 'white' doesnt refer to the colour of sensations but the colour of objects; but 'the referntial roles of colour terms tend to be isomorphic' (uh...?) & dont have 'functional roles' (pls explain???) -- in fact, 'white' gets its meanig from its association 'with white things' [sounds like Suassure!]

this however doesnt show that there is a viable theory-neutral observation/inference distinction; only that meaning holism doesnt pose a challenge to it because meaning holism isnt true...

3. PSYCHOLOGICAL ARGUMENTS

the psychological arugment is that there is no distinction to be made between perception and cognition

"perception involves a kind of problem-solving - a kind of intelligence" (Gregory 1970, p. 30) [the wiki article for 'perception' mentions this, ie. how we 'fill in the details' etc]

perception is therefore the process by which we assign probable causes to the vague stimulus we receive

every 'proximal stimulation' is compatible with a great number of 'distal causes' [ultimate causes], so there are many possible worlds where many different patterns would appear & be picked up as the same visual to an observer [Fodor consistently refers to the perceiver as 'an organism' which is a little crazy to me]

perception involves 'betting on the most probably interpretation of sensory data' (Gregory), ie. perception itself involves inferences - "what mediates perception is an inference from effects to causes"

this seems to be true; so psychology provides a direct argument that observations are always inferential, ie. not theory neutral

so if the world is something like a Neckar cube - all ambiguous stimulus, could always be interpreted differently - how can we ever say an effect has this univocal cause? (without inferring it) - that is, if perception involves problem solving, how are probems ever solved?

the answer is that we simply do infer it - from past information... [we're hitting on the problem Merleau-Ponty brings up here - use of memory, etc.]

so sensory information is interpreted according to the observer's 'background theories'

if percepton is usually true of something that is because our theories about it are true

following a Holmes metaphor, "many projections, if you like, of possible criminals onto actual clues." ... "The clues underdetermine the criminal, but the clues plus background knowledge may be univocal up to a very high order of probability." The trick is having the right background information.

he mentions Kuhn & Goodman in connection w/ this argument

Fodor argues however that the evidence doesnt really say this

while perception is interpretive & contextual, it is also 'bullheaded & recalcitrant'

he explains the Muller-Lyre illusion: the <--> line is seen as shoter because its interpreted as further away and >--< larger because its interpreted as closer; we apply size constancy as though looking at objects at different distances & hence the lines seem to us different sizes (ie. we think we're looking at something 3 dimensional) - our interpretation misguides us; it is highly attested but less often in children, who have less time to develop 3d perception

this is usually cited as an example of how background information affects our perception; the background information here is a complex understanding of 3d objects and their 2d projections

Fodor's challenge: everyone by now knows about the Muller-Lyre illusion. Why isnt our perception penetrated by THAT background theory? Why doesnt knowing the lines are the same length make it look like they are?

In fact, why doesnt knowing a drawing is 2d prevent us from perceiving it as a 3d projection in the first place?

This makes it seem that how the world looks to us is unaffected by cognition

Fodor notes that this is true of many things in this sort of experimental data, not just this illusion

[My thought here is that certain cognitions might be more immediate or work faster, eg. spatial reasoning intervenes before memory]

In a footnote Fodor mentions that Jerome Bruner brings up this point & these examples but writes it off quickly - too quickly for him. He considers the problem w/ 'New Look psychological theorizing' to be failing to distinguish 'how much of what you know actually does affect the way you see'

so there are two conflicting facts here: a known plasticity of perception & a known implasticity of perception. The question is, how can a theory of perception accomodate the existence of both?

[Fodor's argument from here on out will probably rest on the strength of this argument for implasticity. I wonder if there's been any more enlightenment on this from perception science in the last few decades?]

Fodor argues this: to get from a 'cognitivist' view of perception to an argument that observations are theory-dependant you have to argue not just that perception is problem solving engaging background information but that perception has access to ALL the background information (or "arbitrarily much" bg information)

So there are really two questions: whether perception is problem solving/inferential, and wether its "comprehensively pentrated by background beliefs (ie. whether it can be theory-neutral)"

So Fodor wants to arrive at a via media between Granny and Bruner: observation IS inference, but that "there is a radical isolation of how things look from the effects of much of what one believes"

ie. observation is inference, but this inferential-observation IS THEORY NEUTRAL

so it doesn't follow that scientists who accept differnet theories observe phenomena differetly [this argument makes sense to me & answers our hesitation about different types of reasoning; its 'theory neutral' in the sense of 'a scientific theory' or some such]

what might psychology of perception look like if perception is both inferential & theory neutral?

perceptual psychology makes a few distinctons:

between perception and cognition - which they treat as contiguous between perception and sensation - which they treat as strongly divided

sensations are the mere stuff that we actually lay out eyes on, which cognitive processes - the perceptual processes foremost - set on to organize ('assign probable distal causes to')

sensation is noninferential & responds exclusively to the Outside perception is 'both inferential and responsive to the perceivers background theories'

perception can be inferential because my background theories supply the premises for inference; sensation doesnt have access to my theories & cant be inferential

so if you want to 'split the difference between Granny & New Look' you need to postulate a 'tertium quid' -- a psychological mechanism 'which is both encapsulated (like sensation) and inferential (like cognition)': the contradiction between inference and encapsulation [which I take to mean 'access to the Outside'] is resolved by assuming our perceptions access to background mechanism is 'sharply delimited'

he says he develops this properly in Fodor 1983

but to briefly treat what these 'modular' perceptual mechanisms might be like:

perception might assign sentence tokens to sentence types

two reasons this is plausible: "its obviously true" (lol), and... in order to understand what someone says you ned to know the 'form of words' uttered, and 'assigning an utterance to a form of words is to assign a toekn to a type' [I'll take your word for it Jerry]

lets assume theres a psychological mechanism for this -- a 'parser'

the parser takes 'sensory representations' of utterances and makes 'representations of sentence types' (so: acoustic representations in, 'lingustic structural descriptions' out)

the assumption that there are 'psychological mechanisms' and that if they do exist they are 'functions from one form of representation to another' is not given, but it reflects the current psychological theories that we've been dealing with

according to empirical evidence he 'wont bother us with' parsing has 'all the properties that make' psychologists say perception is inferential [this actually seems to be a transcription of a lecture, hence no citations]

the 'acoustic character' of an utterance underdetermines its 'structural description', ie. nothing about the sound of the word 'mankind' should make us anticipate that it is a noun, we can only infer that its a noun with refernece to a background theory about language

so as a module... a parser for L contains 'a grammar of L', ie. noun - it then infers from the acoustic proprties of a token 'a characterization of the distal causes of the token', such as the speakers intention, ie. that the speaker uses it to name something...

so the information it can use in its inferences are: information about the acoustics of the token, and information about lingustic types in L 'and internally represended grammar' -- and nothing else. This 'closure condition' makes the parser modular

the New Look parser, contrarily, can bring in any information that the perceiver has

[we arrive a little at my proposal earlier, that the spatial theory applies 'faster' than other types; Fodor instead believes that the parser's access to anything but (in that case) spatial theories is limited by something intrinsic to the parser itself. It occurs to me that we could decide on this empirially: if you could stop someone from accessing their spatial reasoning, via some kind of 'Russian Sleep Experiment', would they begin accessing other bg theories and update their vision to it, or would everything just appear flat?]

The New Look parser would therefore not see anything it doesnt expect to see; it could never tolerate new information, because it would always turn every sensation into something consistent with its background theories about the world.

what the Modular parser means is that people with very different theories can nonetheless see the world in the same way, as long as their parser doesnt have access to theories on which they disagree

secondly, it means that there can be theory neutral observation language ("much current opinion to the contrary notwithstanding") -- so there is a sense where some terms (like 'red') are observational while others (like 'proton') arent.

his gambit here -- and it is a gambit -- is that only the properties of an object that are explained by the theories that the parser accesses are observational, ie. when I look at something red, my colour parser can access a theory of redness and infer things about it, so I am observing its redness; but if I say that its reflecting(?) electromagnetic radiation, I'm not making an observation, I'm inferring from a theory, because my colour parser does not have access to information about electromgnetism & so cannot observe it

[an interesting manouever, Fodor rescues a scientific realism from Kuhn etc by displacing science even further than them]

giving more cases: the parser has access to certain observations about an utterance, eg. 'an utterance of a sentence' ... 'an utterance of a sentence that contains a word that refers to trees', etc., - these are observations bc they are properties the parser can access. But it does not observe the property 'being uttered to deceive John' or 'being ill-advised in the context...'

one can distinguish between observable properties and sensory properties in this way: the 'sensory properties of utterances are plausibly all acoustic and almost all inaccessible to consciousness'

[this would seem to make all music inaudible]

his third point: the modular parser is 'synchronically' impenetrable by our bg knowledge, ie. in this instance. So just because I know about the Muller-Lyre when I look at it doesn't dispel the illusion. But might they be 'diachronically' penetrable, ie. I could learn how to incorporate more of my bg information into my parser?

it can - denying this is crazy, because it would mean a child could never actually learn a language, etc.

however this also doesnt have complete access, ie. not any kind of teaching influences my parser

the parser is only diachronically penetrable within strictly ("perhaps endogenously" ie. physiologically) defined limits; we still perceive the sun as moving despite our 'Copernican prejudices', and it may be that no educational paradigm could change this

"In this case, our agreement on the general character of the perceptual world might transcend the par- ticularities of our training and go as deep as our common humanity"

So returning to epistemology, Granny will have to 'give a bit' and "distinguish between observation and the perceptual fixation of belief. It is only for the former that claims for theory neutrality have any plausibility."

While the Muller-Lyre doesnt LOOK differnetly to us, we still dont BELIEVE that the first line is shorter; our background information is accessible to 'the mechanisms of belief fixation'

belief fixation, unlike observation ('the fixation of appearances'), is 'a conservative process', using *everything* you know.

think of it this way: the parser module is proposing perceptual *hypothesis* which are 'couched in a restricted (observational) vocabulary and are predicated on a restricted body of info' - then we compare it to the rest of our bg theory and our belief is 'consequent on' this background theory

what this means is that our perceptual beliefs are observational only in the 'first approximation', because afterward they have to be regarded with respect to our whole background theories. So the modules limits determine 'what would you would believe about the appearances from the appearances alone', which by no means accounts for all of the perceptual beliefs you might fix [I have a hard time thinking of an example for this; maybe looking into a microscope shows me a bunch of shapes in the first approximation and, then, subsequently, I can believe that I saw a microbe; its possible that it doesnt even need to be so curious - do I see the smooth surface of carapace in the first approximation and then believe I saw a cockroach?]

so the theory-neutrality of observation is not 'infallible'

its importat here that our perceptual access to observation doesnt necessarily bear on our fixation of beliefs. While it would seem we always know our own perception of things, it doesnt seem to be true. The explanation for the Muller-Lyre illusion [as of this article] hinges on us seeing them, in the first approximation, as 3d objects, which is not how any of us believe we see them; and this explanation was not accessed by introspection but by experiment etc.

An imaginary reader objects: what is this heavily attenuated version of observation good for? havent you given away everything the proponents of 'theory-ladenness' asked for?

he quotes Hanson, one of the main proponents of theory-ladenness, who objects to saying 'all normal observes see the same things in x, but interpret them differently' as unable to explain controversy in research science

rather, for Fodor, 'given the nondemonstrative character of empirical inference' its no puzzle that 'there should be scientific controversy'

the epistemological problem par excellence is to explain scientific *consensus*

how is it possible that given the degree of underdetermination of theory by data that scientists ever agree, and agree as much as they do?

for Fodor, the consensus is down to the theory-neutrality of observation

because we all see the world the same & 'independent of our theoretical attachments', we can see when our predictions arent working out

We admit, Granny and I do, that working scientists indulge in every conceivable form of fudging, smoothing over, brow beating, false advertising, self-deception, and outright rat painting-all the intellectual ills that flesh is heir to ... Nevertheless, it is perfectly obviously true that scientific observations often turn up unexpected and unwelcome facts, that experiments often fail and are often seen to do so, in short that what scientists observe isn't determined solely, or even largely, by the theories that they endorse ... It's these facts that the theory neutrality of observation allows us to explain."

In the end Fodor endorses a sort of plain-spoken realism: science is true because it describes objective reality, and to say this realists will have to hold onto theory-neutral observation.

[iguiqkbiyviv-blog]

Do You Know How To How To See Someones Private Instagram? Let Us Teach You!

If youve been maddening to figure out a artifice to see a private profile, you might have found a couple of apps that allow you to complete consequently along the way. You probably have your own reasons to do thus that will justify your interests in this feat which goes against Instagrams privacy policy. Some apps guarantee youll be dexterous to look the content on private or on the other hand locked profiles, however we have found the right app after psychoanalysis beyond 20 interchange such Instagram hacks.But lets look at the concept of these apps. Most of them either require you to download their app or to use their online service. You need to how to see private instagram have enough money the targeted Instagram account obviously. with you get that, they will supposedly begin committed on removing the restrictions, whether youve been blocked or denied access to that account.After theyre done once government the data, they will allow you permission to that profiles content and save in mind that they are not liable in imitation of what you will be put-on similar to the data you obtain; in most countries, reading the private messages of additional people is risky. I pronounce that this online app actually works, after laboratory analysis with reference to 20 of them I realized that many outsource the initial code of 1 or 2, and the associate above is one of the main sources (usually updated often).Sooner or cutting edge the copy cats would be discovered and reported. see private instagram appropriately if you pull off happen to find one that works, have in mind that it wont be available online forever. Either this or its kept as a unnamed for fittingly long that no one knows it exists. But if no one knows just about it, whats the use of it.

Instagram Profile Viewer

The privacy settings become crucial bearing in mind a person creates an account. It could be for security issues or for a pleasant level of the person. However, Instagram has enormously simple privacy settings as compared to new social websites, either you can how to view private instagram conceal your content from all your connections and buddies except some members to whom you desire to allow, or you can performance it to every your followers. The user has conclusive control higher than the assistance he/she wants to share as soon as public. There is no in-between settings as Facebook has, where you can become accustomed upon every state which you want to decree to extra people. Thus, once the support of private settings, unaided the buddies upon the website can view your profile. For those who desire to view private Instagram have further choices to pick from.You can hack the account of the person and viewing all his/her opinion would be within your power. You can check all his/her videos, photos, and additional personal information. Various tools, technologies, and solutions are to hand upon the web to use for hacking Instagrams account. You are required URL of that persons Instagrams account and you would get right of entry to the account. Well, it is not the easiest exaggeration of viewing private profile portray of any person. You habit an Android application in which you will put the username or URL of the describe or video from that persons account. Just copy the profiles URL and paste it into the application. Press the concur out of the ordinary to take steps supplementary and you will be dexterous to view the private profile of the person.This website is unconditionally free, and the instagram private profile viewer good situation just about using it that you get not have to download it. You can use it totally easily to view private Instagram and see content shared upon that account. The other gain of using it is that bearing in mind you want to view private Instagram profile, this website will let you view undetectably, which means no footprints are left behind. The owner will never know that his/her profile was visited. No one will ever know that you have used this in order to view private Instagram profiles.Instagram has a mighty set of privacy protections to keep its users instruction secure from their exes, superior employers, or any additional prying eyes they hope to conceal from. In fact, more and more people are realizing the importance of keeping your social media profiles at least somewhat private rather than leaving them gain access to to the world at large. Your Instagram page is no exception to that. A private Instagram profile means your photos and stories wont be viewable by the public, and youll have to accept buddies one at a time. That lets you directly rule who can and cant view your content. Its authenticated that the platrform is set occurring to back up public sharing, but they with keep the decision to maintain a degree of personal privacy. Unless youre a celebrityor perhaps an up-and-coming YouTuber theres no defense not to lock down your Instagram account if youre anxious virtually safety or privacy.There may be times, though, that you want to view someone elses private Instagram account. Is it possible? Well, it is and it isnt, and well acquire to that. First lets evaluation how to make YOUR Instagram profile private, subsequently well get into how to view private accounts secretly.Weve all been told over and over: create clear your social accounts are locked alongside and private, or at the enormously least, tidy and secure of any compromising suggestion and images. Whether youre applying for a job or just dont desire your prospective spouse seeing those embarrassing photos from senior year, its important to ensure that your account is either private or safe. But if youre supplementary to Instagramor its been awhile since you created your accountyou might be unsure upon how to bend the privacy settings on your account to protect your information. Lets allow a look. Well be using the iOS description of the app in our screenshots below, but the Android savings account is approximately identical to the Apple balance of the app.Start by foundation the app, either from your home screen (iOS) or your app drawer (Android). The app will get into stirring on the home page for Instagram, showing a deposit of posts and shares from your followed friends. Along the bottom of the app, youll find five icons for adding up photos, viewing posts, and more. Tap upon the profile icon upon the bottom of the tab. on iOS, this shows your profile describe taken from Instagram. upon Android, this shows a basic profile icon, a silhouette of a person. Tapping this will display your own profile, along afterward a few new options.Once youre inside of Instagrams settings menu, youll look a long list of options. You can amass your Facebook associates and your contacts, invite Facebook links not yet upon Instagram, and view your account settings. Its here where youll find options for two-factor authentication, the ability to conceal your Instagram Story, and block users. But above all, the most important marginal here is Private Account, which youll locate at the bottom of the account settings options upon this page, previously the received settings menu begins. Instagram warns under this switch that solitary people you agree to can see your photos and videos, while mentioning that your existing cronies wont be affected by the switch. If youre irritating to get rid of a specific user that already follows you, youll have to block them.When youre ready to make your account private, all you have to realize is flip the switch on this option. Instagram will inform you roughly appreciative buddies and your existing followers innate unaffected by the change. assert your selection, and thats ityour account is now private. If at any epoch you want to create your account public again, helpfully follow the steps above and flip the switch for private accounts to the off position. Youll receive unconventional official declaration message, and thatll be that. You can complete this as many mature as youd like, without any sort of repercussionsjust remember that any posts you shared while your account was private will become public as soon as you flip that switch off.If you hope to view a private Instagram account, the legitimate quirk is then the easy pretentiousness send that person a follow request.

Get This Starting Points

Typically, even a person in imitation of a protected profile will agree to people they know, appropriately if this is someone youre au fait or acquainted with, you shouldnt have any problems getting that person to espouse your request. taking into account your request has been approved, youll be clever to look that persons profile and view any photos theyve uploaded to Instagram.Obviously, this is the most clear habit to access and view a persons private Instagram account, no issue who they are. Unfortunately, though, this does depend heavily upon you as an Instagram addict having a preexisting relationship afterward the person youre bothersome to amass on Instagram.Therefore, if youre irritating to amass someone you dont know, once a celebrity or a friend of a friend, the easiest way to attain out to them is through a private instaviewy publication upon Instagram. Sending the user a private publication (PM) will let them know a bit just about whos requesting to follow the user. The best pretension to pull off this is to allow the requested user know who you are, a bit practically yourself, and why you want to follow them on Instagram. saw as much as Im a high studious friend of your boyfriend or We met at your cousins birthday party can be tolerable to make a door amid you and the party youre aggravating to achieve out to, especially if they recall you.Again, a lot of this relies on having an already-existing association bearing in mind the person. If you dont have that pre-existing relationship, next youll have to rely on your own social skills to chat to the user youre looking to follow. Many Instagram users will usual additional friends, especially since they can block or cut off you if things see private instagram get rough. Just recall to keep an eye upon what you declare and what that person posts. If you dont know them and you interact later them too often after theyve recognized your request, you might be risking a removal or blocking.Sometimes you dont actually dependence entrance to the persons account you just desire to see some particular photo(s) they posted. Log into Instagram and locate the person wish to research online. gone you locate their account, no doubt locked astern a privacy wall, youll be skilled to look the username of your target. emphasize that proclaim and copy it to your devices clipboard, because were going to be using that name in a moment. Now, read occurring Google Images or the image-based search engine of your substitute and paste the read out of your targeted person into the search box.

Things To Remember

What well be deed here is simple: somewhere on the web, theres a fine unplanned that the person youre looking for has left an trail of photographs before activating their privacy protection on Instagram. Often, the photos posted on Instagram have actually been shared elsewhere, making it simple to find your targets photos by using their Instagram ID as a search keyword. If theyve previously had alternative photo accounts upon Flickr or new same photo sharing sites, you may open some of that assistance in your search. The similar is genuine if the persons Facebook is largely unprotected.The unaccompanied genuine way to view a private Instagram account profile is by requesting to follow that person from your actual account. bearing in mind the private Instagram addict grants your request to follow them, youll have the triumph to view, like, and comment upon their Instagram posts. You could in addition to private broadcast the account holder to explain why youd subsequently to follow them. Or you can realize both, making definite the addict knows exactly who you are and why you desire to view their profile.If youre looking for unethicaland possibly illegalways to view a private Instagram account, That said, heres the easiest quirk to get access to a private Instagram if youre distinct the requested addict wont want to take on you in genuine life: make a new account for a fictional person and use that account to demand to follow the account you are eager in. ham it up accounts upon Instagram are, technically speaking, adjacent to the terms of advance for the account, in view of that youll want to limit your usage and access. We do not recognizeprivate instagramplay-act this; at best, its unethical, and at worse, could constitute stalking users online. you can always go the route of creating a con profile and maddening to fool the addict into later you. We dont recommend this, as its a major breach of trust considering the additional user, and play-act accounts can often easily be spotted like browsing content. Overall, reaching out to the user you want to follow is the best course of conduct. Theyll likely increase you if you feign a association or a sense of friendlinessInstagram is, after all, a fairly-positive community of photographers and users sharing their social experiences online.

[garyh2628]

QUASI- JUDICIAL

Chairman and Managing Operational CEO (Global Legal Authority Quasi-Judicial)

(Finance, planning, industry and foreign trade portfolios) Private

Head of Human Resources Finance and People and Global Head of Corporate Responsibility

Investments/Contracts/Superior/Technically Competent and Right-Hand Men

NGO - (Finance, planning, industry and foreign trade portfolios) Private

To my Pharma Hubs, Technology Hubs, Social Creative/Personal Hub, My Private Hubs, My Financial Hubs and my Health and Wellbeing/Scientific Hubs, Legal and Innovation Hubs, Hinterland Hub and to my Eastern Caribbean Hub, Linguistic/Psychology Hub, to my beloved additions and to my Institutions and Partners and Team, Pool of Potential Personal Assistants and Private Secretaries and Business Managers and also to my Fitness Hub which is an extension of my Health and Wellbeing Hub and not to forget my beloved Brooklyn Hub and my Wine/Adviser Hub, Influential Legal Cashier, Strategic Partnerships, STATEMENT OF INTENT, MY WEALTH FUND AND PERSONAL ATTORNEY and PROPERTY EXPERT GUY and THE ATTACHMENT AND MY PERSONAL BOARDROOM AND MY CHIEF STRATEGY AND INNOVATION OFFICER. The core founding support regions of this Network and Global Structure.

All Options remain on the Table applying the finishing touches to our Genius and my Genius and the Network and this Global Structure Genius. DRAFT

The Network, Strategic Partnerships and Global Structure is hot–but watch the margins

THE MOST BEAUTIFUL INTELLECTS IN THE WORLD

THIS GLOBAL STRUCTURE AND INTELLECT SHARE MANY OF THE SAME QUALITIES, INDESTRUCTIBLE, PURE AND BEAUTIFUL TO BEHOLD

For yet another week since I took control of those important Portfolios, many companies around the world are not shying away from doing the right thing, opting  to focus on fortifying the Companies and the Network and Global Structure and the Economic Community by speeding up the delivery of the particulars to myself for perusal and for the development of polices, guidelines, analysis etc and the Philosophy that will carry this Network, Economic Community and Statement of Intent forward.  Further, this focus will strengthen our  balance sheets and will stand us in good stead. Their caution was understandable. Faced with malaise as a result of burgeoning growth and expansion in emerging markets executives and directors thought this was the right thing to do other than being legally mandatory. All of these reasons for prudence will continue until all of the deliveries is done to myself.  We will deliver for the Statement of Intent and we will deliver for the Economy and we will deliver for well paid jobs and we will deliver for robust philosophies and momentary policies.  We will win on Economics and we will deliver for our further responsibility to the Environment.

The recovery continues and the growth predictions remains enthusiastically strong, emerging markets are booming  as result of the programs and the Initiatives that we have planned and also for our Suite of Upstream Intellectual Programs and the suite of favourable predictions.  My influential Investors and the outfit that does my analysis said they can see no looming fiscal cliff. Despite these persisting woes, many dealmakers believe that there is so much pent-up demand that more deals will simply have to get done. Many companies are now deciding not to do deals or speak to anyone until they get guidelines from me through CIM and further disbursement will not be made until the Offices of Budget and Management is delivered. As we move into the new phase the only conversations that we should be having is about rapid growth, organic growth, and without the pressure that we are were experiencing before Gary took over.  This thesis is supported by a strong set of results and a strong set of favourable predictions and a flurry of big deals.

We will continue to deliver for the Industry and we will continue the process of delivering this Network to myself and we will continue the delivery of the Global Structure to myself and we will roll out the suite of Upstream Intellectual Initiatives and Programs that we have in the pipeline. The Network and the Global Structure and Industry and I and the Statement of Intent and those Strategic Regions is in the best positioned economy in the world right now from an industrial, technology and service perspective,” one of my favourite CEOs and a well respected Intellectual.  If you look at the growth rate since I took over, those regions where we are going to ave a presence has the best opportunity to produce the most durable and sustained growth as a result of the work of this Network and this Global Structure under my leadership.  I am now running a large Global Business and those regions and Strategic Partnerships will be stood in good stead because they would have the requisite exposure to this Network. We will deliver for the Philosophy of living your best life and we will deliver on the suite of Portfolios that now live within the walls of this Network.  The predictions are that if you are serious about your economy, this Network and this Global Structure will be the need to, go to Intellectual Institution.  The entire region are on the cusp of achieving and succeeding and also all of the Strategic Regions as a result of the great work we will be doing and the suite of programs we have in the pipeline.

However, you look at it, the Team, his CEOs, Partners, Institutions, Intellectuals, the hinterland, the Global Structure, and more so the sector is enjoying a golden age and Gary for the dozens of awards and investment being ploughed into making those great and indelible plans a reality. This sector is big bucks but often underestimated by policy-makers: as well as the home-grown income and employment created.  As their Global Ambassador, both sector and non-sector  we will achieve and succeed.  Global Legal Authority. This added value was the highest since records began, thanks to our Legal Authority Gary and Intellectuals across the Globe. If Gary continues to beguile the Global intellectual community and audiences, the sector and Gary will have another Les Miserables record-breaker hit on his hands.

This new motivated Sector is being hailed on a London stage as extraordinary. “The whole thing is built on efficiency. “I wear these presents with great pride to show my gratitude” 😊 oK now team, CEO, Technically Competent Men, Partners and Institutions. While rebuffing his critics at home, my Influential Advisers Council threw their support behind me and the Global Network, a move which will only strengthen my already strong relationship with my additions and Global Structure.  Their doomsday and Armageddon reporting and failure never came.  Only investment, after Investment in our ideals, strategy and method.   Tell Them, I love you, I love you, I love you, I love you! It’s mad money, it’s real money, we are in bear territory.  Hardcore, do you want more? Yes.

In this Network we endeavour to strike a balance between our business Interest and the obligations we owe towards the environment, our workers and the Community.  Being both socially and environmentally responsible is important to us.  To this end we have involved ourselves in a number of projects enabling Institutions to Partner with us as we deliver on Education and Classical Intellect.  We will win this Election, we will win on shared prosperity and we will win for the Environment and we will win for this Community of my Corporations and Partners and Institutions and Team which are the most profitable in the world.  We will win for this economy.  This Network are always in a Bullish mood and we are always in bear territory and its real Intellect, Real Money and a Vast Pool of Intellectual Capacity. Great work OLC.

Truth to Tell, Tell it First and Tell it like it is.  

We demolish arguments and every pretension that sets itself up against the knowledge of God, and we take captive every thought to make it obedient to Christ.  We will win on data and we will win on research and we will win for the Year of The Scientist.  We will win and we will win, and we will win for the out fit that does my mathematics and prepare the analyses for my perusal and approval.  This family hears you, and we will win for the environment.

The world most exquisite gemstone is millions of years old.  Consisting of virtually pure carbon it is the only gemstone composed of a single element making it not only the hardest natural substance known to man, but also the purest of the earth’s treasures.  What makes, this stone so beautiful is that when expertly cut, it has a unique ability to reflect light back in an expansion of brilliance and Fire. I love you my right-hand men. In my fire and brimstone address to Intellectuals across the Globe, we will breathe life in the valley of dry bones, life in Education and Economics and the Environment, Life that every man is created Equal, Life in the fact tat the cheque will be cashed and Life into Freedom and Choice and Classical Intellect. I love you, I love you, I love.  Truth to tell that every man will have an opportunity to live his best life.

Someone just said to me as I walk along, they cant trap Intellect so they are trying hard wit interpretation as a caricature when the experts and the Network and the relevant people got the corroborated message. The perusal particulars are currently being prepared for delivery to myself.  Further they cant trap or approach anyone from within the walls of the Network or Global Structure.  It has to come through my Offices after delivery.

Team, et al It was not a mistake that we cannot be at fault. As the delivery of the particulars and the delivery of the Offices dawned, he says, it will be clear that what we have embarked on is indeed the authority on Intellect.  We will deliver the HQ1and1and1and1.  We are in a love affair, there is much work to be done, there is a lot of deliveries to be made to my Office of Signature, Stamp and Approval. Truth to Tell, tell it first, tell it like it is.  The Ultimate token of Love.  We have a lot of work to do.  It is estimated that in her lifetime, a woman views her engagement ring one million times.  It is our responsibility team to make sure it is pleasurable on every experience.  I love you, I love you, I love you.  True love shares many of the same qualities, indestructible, pure and beautiful to behold.  Let’s go, Let’s go, lets get this done as a matter of urgency.  The Value Investment Programme.

QUASI JUDICIAL

Chairman and Managing Operational CEO (Global Legal Authority)

(Finance, planning, industry and foreign trade portfolios) Private

Head of Human Resources Finance and People and Global Head of Corporate Responsibility

Investments/Contracts/Superior/Technically Competent and Right-Hand Men

NGO - (Finance, planning, industry and foreign trade portfolios) Private

QUASI JUDICIAL

[davidrsmithlove]

How to Estimate the Total Available Organic Search Traffic for a Website

Whether you’re expanding an existing business into a new market, bringing out a new product range, or building a brand new website from scratch, a key question you’ll need to answer is how much organic search traffic is reasonable to expect, and what the ceiling on that number might be. It’s also useful for an established site to know how close to the ceiling you are. In this post, I outline a process for coming to a reasonable estimate for that number.

How we do it

This is all an estimate, while it tries to be as rigorous as possible there are a lot of unknowns that could cause the estimate to be off in either direction. The intention is to get a ballpark estimate in order to set expectations and give an indication of the level of investment that should be devoted to a site.

In order to work out how much organic traffic we can get, we need four things:

1. A list of keywords we can reasonably expect to rank for

In order to gather this list of keywords, a level of keyword research is required. There are many resources available online for keyword research, including the Keyword Research module on DistilledU. In order to get the most accurate estimates, we want to aim for as wide as possible a set of keywords that are actually relevant to the site we’re proposing.

The intention of this methodology is focussed on the core non-branded keywords a site could rank for, e.g. the names of products and services offered by your website. Branded keywords should be considered separately, as they are much more prone to changes in search volume for a new brand being launched.

Tangential or unrelated keywords (that might be the subject of a blog or resources page) are generally better considered separately, as there’s often an unbounded number of these. My recommendation would be that when deciding on content to create, to run this process at a smaller scale over those particular keywords to estimate the organic traffic available for a piece of content.

Below is a scaled-down example list of keywords that we could put together for a site selling colourful knitwear. In reality, your keyword list should probably run to hundreds or thousands of keywords.

2. Search volume for each keyword in our list

There are many SEO tools available to get search volume data from. At Distilled we like to use Ahrefs, but any SEO tool will have this data available. Google Keyword Planner also gives ranges of keyword volume for free, although that data tends to be grouped into ranges. For the purposes of this exercise, you can take the midpoint of those ranges.

No keyword volume source, including Google, will be completely accurate, and they will generally give a monthly average not taking into account seasonal fluctuations. You should also be aware of keyword volumes for close variants being grouped together - there’s a risk you’ll be double counting without taking this into account.

3. For each keyword, the highest ranking we can reasonably expect to achieve

Once we have our list of keywords with search volume, we should look at what’s currently ranking in the search results, in order to estimate where our site could expect to rank.

Note that what I’m about to outline is not a rigorous process. As mentioned above, the idea is to get a ballpark figure, and this method relies on some assumptions that are not to be held as claims about how SEO works. Specifically, we’re assuming that:

We can make pages of high enough quality, and well-targeted enough, to rank well for a given keyword

With this being the case, we could aspire to rank as high as anyone currently ranking in the SERP who has a less strong domain (in terms of backlink profile) than our site.

Of course, SEO is realistically much more complicated than that, but for the purposes of developing an estimate, we can hold our nose and go ahead with these assumptions.

Want more advice like this in your inbox? Join the monthly newsletter.

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This process is replicating some of the inputs that a lot of keyword tools use to calculate their difficulty scores. The reason we’re doing this is that we need to use a specific ranking position in order to project the amount of traffic we can get, which difficulty scores don’t give us.

In order to work out where can rank, we need to see who’s currently ranking for each keyword. Many rank tracking tools (including STAT, which we use at Distilled) will give you this data, as will search analytics tools such as Ahrefs and SEMrush. Let’s take the top 20 ranking URLs for each keyword. Don’t forget to get the rankings for the country/market you’re doing this analysis on!

View full size image

We then want to cross-check these URLs against backlink data. Select your favourite backlink tool (Moz/Ahrefs/Majestic), and look up the domain-level strength of each domain that ranks for your keywords. If you’re doing this at a large scale, I’d recommend using the API of your tool, or URL Profiler. For this example, I’ve used Ahrefs domain rating (with 100 for any ranking positions that don’t have an organic result).

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We are making the assumption that we can rank as well as any currently ranking site with a lower domain score than our site. If you’re running this analysis for a new site that doesn’t exist (and therefore doesn’t have a backlink profile), you can use a hypothetical target backlink score based on what you believe to be achievable.

For each keyword, find the highest ranking position which is currently occupied by a weaker domain than yours. If none such pages exist in the top 20 results, we can discount those keywords from our analysis, and assume that we can’t rank for them.

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4. For each ranking position, the amount of traffic we could expect to get each month

Now that we have our highest achievable rank, and monthly search volume, we can combine them to get the maximum monthly traffic we can expect from each keyword. To do this, we use a clickthrough rate model to estimate what percentage of searches lead to a click on a search result in each ranking position.

There are some very good public resources - I like Advanced Web Ranking’s data. While generic data like this will never be perfect, it will get us a good-enough estimate that we can use for this task.

If we multiply the monthly search volume by the click-through rate estimate for the highest achievable ranking position, that gives us the traffic expectation for each keyword. Add these together, and we get the total traffic we can expect for the site. We’re done!

What we can do with this information

Now that we have a number for the traffic we can expect, what can we do with it? Let’s revisit our assumptions. We’ve gone into this analysis assuming a static list of keywords, and a fixed backlink profile. What if we change that up?

What if our backlink profile improves?

Because we’ve set this up as a model in a spreadsheet, it’s relatively simple to tweak the domain score rating. By doing this, we can see how performance would improve by, for example, adding 10 points to our domain rating. The sensitivity of the traffic levels to small changes in this would be a good indication that it’s a good idea to invest in growing your backlink profile.

What if we target a broader range of keywords?

The other way we could get more traffic would be by targeting more keywords. This could be via blog or resources style content, or by adding more transactional keywords targeting more terms. In order to update the model, it’s a case of essentially repeating the above process with a new list of keywords, and adding it into the initial model. This can be a great way to identify new keyword opportunities.

Improving the model

As mentioned above, this was (intentionally) a very simple model. We’ve glossed over a lot of nuance in order to come to a ballpark figure of achievable search traffic. For a more rigorous estimate of the available search traffic, there are a few modifications I would make:

Use a tailored CTR model

The AWR link I provided above provides a good breakdown of clickthrough rate by industry and device, as well as different types of search intent. If you have the time, you should go through your keywords and pick out the appropriate CTR curve per keyword.

Break it up by device type

Some keywords can have dramatically different search results by device type. Tracking keywords separately on mobile and desktop, as is possible using some rank tracking tools including STAT, would allow you to separately estimate the highest achievable rank on each device. Unfortunately, there’s no source of search volume that I’m aware of that allows you to split search volumes by device type (please correct me in the comments if you know of one!), so you can split the search volume in half between mobile and desktop, or in a different proportion if you know that the particular space has a bias to mobile or desktop.

Look at the SERPs

The above methodology focuses on backlinks as the key decider of whether a page can rank or not. This is not how search works - there are hundreds of factors that go into deciding who ranks where for which keywords. Looking more closely at who is currently ranking will give great insight, as it might show opportunities that wouldn’t otherwise be apparent bu looking at links alone.

For example, if a weaker domain ranks in the top three positions for a keyword that it is an exact match for, which would indicate that those results aren’t a good opportunity. Conversely, if the pages ranking for a given keyword aren’t a very good match for the intent of the search, and you can create a page that matches the intent better, that represents a better opportunity than link numbers would suggest.

Also, if all of the pages ranking for a search term aren’t a close match to your site (e.g. if all of the results are informational for a search that you would target with a transactional page), it’s probably not a good opportunity and you should remove it from your list.

Conclusion

Thanks for reading through this post! I’d love to hear if anyone has any feedback on the process or ways it could be improved. Let me know in the comments!

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