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anakinthetrashking · 4 years

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BnHA One-Shot Fic Recs (pt1)

Making some fic-rec posts has been on my to-do list for a while and I’m finally doing it, yay! Currently I have 6 word doc pages full of just BnHA recs. So I’m splitting them up by length and completion, so first up is (part one of) one-shots! Let’s go!!!

Lets start with some classic Izuku and DadMight!

Pictures, Posters and Tender Beauty by ProPinkist (tumblr: @dazais-guardian-angel ) Rating: G Category: Gen ~4,400 words Summary: Izuku has virtually every All Might-themed item out there, and prides himself on all of it, as Toshinori is well aware. However, somehow, the boy still decided that there was something vital missing. This is fluffy and very cute. No one truly appreciates All Might as much as Izuku does, but 1A comes close. All Might deserves all the love, and this fic truly provides!!!

Dear Mr. All Might by QuizzicalCrow (tumblr: @quizzicalcrow ) Rating: G Category: Gen ~5,000 words Summary: As the #1 hero for decades, All Might has collected a lot of fan mail over the years. Toshinori tracks down a series of letters that only now, years later, does he appreciate for their significance. I always love the thought of All Might looking through his fan mail, even if he can’t get to all of it. This was a wonderful glimpse into that AND it was made to be so, so personal and sweet. Go have some heart-healing fluff.

Growing Pains by LordofLies (tumblr: @theangelofchildren ) Rating: G Category: Gen ~5,900 words Summary: Izuku finds himself changed by his encounter with the Hero Killer, but changes of a more physical kind are in store for him as he begins to truly accept One for All as his own. Once, he would have been thrilled to look more like All Might, but now those connections are as much a source of anxiety as they are of pride.Or, Izuku wakes up one morning and sees the world through different eyes. Izuku having anxiety and Toshi being there to help him through it and calm him down? Sign me UP. Its also a pretty cool take on how One for All is able to change things about it’s holder. Could this happen in cannon? Who knows.... Regardless, it was a great read!

I’ll Carry You Home by Renesvetta Rating: G Category: Gen ~2,700 words Summary: While training with All Might, it wasn’t uncommon for Izuku to be so exhausted at the end of the day that he unwittingly fell asleep without regard for where he was. It consequently became part of All Might’s routine to help his young protégé home. During that time, Izuku may have let loose more than one sleepy confession towards his mentor. Yes, it is as adorable as it sounds. Its tagged with “self indulgent Dad Might fluff” which is both accurate and appreciated. In other words: Superb you funky little writer!

Simple Gifts by QuizzicalCrow Rating: G Category: Gen ~6,700 words Summary: One year ago, Izuku received the greatest gift he could ever imagine. Now he’s determined to return the favor for the one responsible for it all with a gift of his own. First off, I love the idea of Izuku and Toshi quietly celebrating the anniversary of passing on OfA from All Might to Izuku. Even just taking the day to hang out with each other. It’s a really precious idea. But there’s not just fluff! Izuku finds himself in a fight, again. (cool villain quirk, too!) I love all of the small details that are in this fic (and in Crow’s other works, too!) anyway its exciting AND very heartwarming, so go read it!!!

Affectionate by Sevi007 (tumblr: @sevi007 ) Rating: G Category: Gen ~2,600 words Summary: Toshinori starts to show affection very easily around his students. The reactions he gets for that are not quite the ones he had anticipated - well, not all of them, at least. Toshi is LOVED, APPRECIATED, and 1A feels like HOME. how many times can i say “cute” and “heartwarming” on this post?? bc these are some amazing writers, whom I adore, and their writing makes my heart WARM. AND. FUZZY. i mean, even just the first few paragraphs of this one just, really sets the scene of what i like to believe the 1A dorm is (on a good day, lol). its a really nice read, so go treat yo’ self by reading it.

paint me in trust by dinomight Rating: G Category: Gen ~6,400 words Summary: The first mark Izuku gets is a slight brush of green across his temple. It’s the soft touch of a mother holding her son for the first time. Inko has one to match, the same shade of green staining the tips of her fingers. Hers is more noticeable; Izuku’s tends to blend into his hairline. He loves it anyways. He has to. It’s the only soulmate mark he has. (Or: how Izuku goes from just green to a rainbow, UA-style.) Ok, so this fic sort of plays off the idea of soulmates, and does not fit in with soulmates in the usual form of the trope. First off its completely platonic. Its categorized as Gen and sticks to that. Also it doesn’t seem to be as obligatory and permanent as you would think it would be. It seems to be more of the universe telling you who has the possibility of being important in your life. I really really loved this, it was so adorable and gives you that sweet, sweet Izuku angst, before healing your heart with the power of friendship and found family!!!

The Die Has Been Cast by ChiwiTheKiwi (tumblr: @chiwithekiwi ) Rating: G Category: Gen ~5,400 words Summary: “There’s something about that kid you aren’t telling me, isn’t there?”When no answer meets him, Shouta tries again.“You know something about Midoriya’s quirk that you haven’t shared with me. Is that right?”(Or: A canon "What If" surrounding the latest manga events and focusing on Aizawa finally making a connection.) First off, this fic has spoilers for the manga, so dont read unless you’re past chp212! I loooooooove OfA reveal fics, especially when it’s Aizawa that finds out. He deserves to know!!! its kind of important!!!! This fic chooses a great moment to work off of, and does a great job with Aizawa’s character. I really enjoyed it and couldn’t keep myself from going back and reading it just now LOL

These last two are actually two-shots, but it makes it an even 10! also Izuku and dadmight, so we can continue the theme here...

Some Unspoken Thing by LittleKy Rating: G Category: Gen ~7,900 words (2chps) Green, Toshinori has always thought, is the color of life anew.(Or: It's time for Yagi Toshinori to finally accept that he has a son, now, in all but blood. It's time for Midoriya Hisashi to accept that as well.) YES ALL MIGHT! ADMIT THAT IZUKU IS YOUR SON! great portrayal of the characters and really hits the nail on the head for DadMight. and Izuku in this story is just the smallest green floof that you wish to give a hug. NEVER MIND ALL MIGHT, YOU TOOK TOO LONG SO IZUKU IS MY SON NOW AND IM NOT GIVING HIM BACK ( no but seriously i want to hug this fic its so cute TTuTT )

LAST BUT NOT LEAST! I See You by BirdAntlers (tumblr: @aarymk )

Rating: G Category: Gen ~15,400 words (2chps) Midoriya Izuku is a quirkless child, blind from birth. Yagi Toshinori is the most powerful man in the world, loved by millions. They could not be more different, and yet their loneliness is the same. (From a pair of AU posts on Tumblr that got way out of hand; I wanted to put it here because it turned into more of a fic than a "what-if." Basically a vessel for me to vomit as much Dadmight as I can.) Hey, you! Yeah! You! Do you want to cry? Do you want to start sobbing in a public space?? Do you just want to be destroyed with words and be left there kneeling at the feet of a writer who has torn out your heart and stomped on it before they gently wipe the tears from your face? Yeah?? y oU Wan NA D IE??? READ THIS AND GET REKT. you’ll thank me later

(under the cut is just me rambling, i kept all the important stuff up here, ur welcome)

Now that the actual recs are over I can rant here- look i really tried to slim my recs down, but i have almost 300 bnha fics bookmarked,some of them are “to read” or theyre in progress, etc but i managed to get this list sorta slimmed down? a little?(to only 58!!!) but as i was gathering this post together it felt like i dont have very many Dadmight recs on that list??? but i havent rechecked all the other fics i was just going through the oneshots. i... kinda read a lot more fics with AIzawa in it instead. it be that way. DadMight content is SO GOOD. but my fav is aizawa im sorryyyyy anyway i have another SEVENteeN oneshots to put in rec posts and that does NOT include the mulitchapter and friikin series and stuff... and like i said this is aaaaaaallllllllllllllll BnHA. batfam fic posts will come after, and then star wars, and then maybe star trek? we’ll see. i have a very specific taste in ST fics and that is Tarsus IV whump. which. i have not read in a while. when they say “that trope came from ST” for sooooooo many tropes, you WISH other fandoms had tarsus as a trope, holy crap it is TOP TIER angst fodder. if you love to write/read whump, angst, and h/c i would HIGHLY recommend that you take a bit of time and explore the content and stories there. heck maybe i will make a ficrec post for just tarsus angst. ok.

my INTENTION is to edit these posts later with little links to the other fic rec lists so that itll be easier to find. but., its me, so itll either happen in painful detail or not at all

asdjkdgh its 2:30am and i need to sleep and not be rambling incoherently again I WILL SAVE THIS AS A DRAFT.

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radramblog · 4 years

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Every Boros Commander, Part 1

Every one of these rambles is going to be longer and nerdier than the last, I guess. We’ll see how long I can keep that up for.

If you aren’t or haven’t been at least a casual fan of Magic: The Gathering, this post is going to be completely lost on you, sorry.

Oh also I’m having to split this in half since it took basically all afternoon to write and its still juuuust not done.

Boros gets a lot of shit for being bad and having bad generals for EDH until recently, and seeing as its my favourite two-colour pair I felt like exploring, well, every option we have for the combo. I’m excluding the new Commander Legends partner commanders in this, since I don’t have all day, and I’m also not covering Akiri and Bruse Tarl since no-one ever builds just Boros with them, and I’m not including 3-5 colour decks that just happen to have red and white in them. That’s not Boros.

Boros’s strengths are in manipulating combat, in tokens, and with Voltron strategies. It is the best pair for Equipment decks and top tier for Aggressive decks, to the point of being arguably shoehorned by WOTC into such strategies for a long time. Its weaknesses are mostly to do with card draw and ramp, possibly the most important things in a casual game of Commander, but the former is alleviated by many of red’s recent card draw options and the latter easily supplemented with mana rocks- if you have enough money, any deck can have good ramp, but enough budget options exist these days that it isn’t too bad even for the “worst colors”.

Anyway, enough beating around the bush lets get into this. Going in Chronological order.

Agrus Kos, Wojek Veteran (29th most played as of writing)

…It seriously took until Ravnica to get a legendary RW creature? Heinous. Cool as Agrus is as protagonist of the Ravnica novel, his card simply does not hold up in 2021, let alone beforehand. He’s a Glorious Anthem style commander, except he works best only with creatures that are both red and white, and not nearly enough cards produce multicolored tokens for him to boost. Oh, also he’s a 5 mana 3/3 with no protection or evasion that has to attack to get his effect. Save it for the novel.

Razia, Boros Archangel (30th most played as of writing, the last place finalist)

Speaking of Ravnica. Razia is fucking cool, between the art and unique, if underwhelming, activated ability. She is also 8 mana and not green. She is the only commander to my knowledge that can redirect damage to opponents’s creatures, so if that’s the deck you want to build, go for it, though enjoy the distressingly small cardpool. God, they couldn’t have given her an extra power, could they?

Brion Stoutarm (6th most played as of writing)

Brion is the first actually viable commander of the bunch, being a pretty decent head to either a Fling deck with Ball Lightnings or Acts of Treason, or just Giant Tribal with his Lorwyn compatriots. I don’t think I’ve ever seen or played against Brion yet, but I’d be interested in doing so. Having lifegain in the command zone with a deck that likes throwing damage around is pretty nice. It’s surprising that he’s still so high, especially considering EDHREC (my data source) only now pulls from the last 2 years of decks, but I’m certainly not sad to see him there.

Jor Kadeen, the Prevailer (19th most played as of writing)

Spoilers: Jor is actually the best Anthem commander. +3/+0 is huge, and when most of your ramp and some of your draw is artifacts you’re not going to have a hard time getting metalcraft. 5 mana is a fair chunk for an aggressive deck but he turns the damage output up enough notches that I think he’s pretty good. Underrated in my opinion. How are there more Tajic, Legion’s Edge decks than Jor Kadeen decks?

Basandra, Battle Seraph (24th most played as of writing)

Basandra is the head of my current Boros deck, being a pillowfort/combat manipulation deck. She’s, uh, not ideal in that even, since she stops even you from casting removal and such during combat. Having an extra must attack effect in the zone is nice, though, and a flying commander can be nice for closing games out. Basandra at least has the gift of being fairly open-ended, but also, she doesn’t really do anything, so that’s probably got something to do with it.

On a side note, fuck you Terese Nielsen for turning out to be a cunt. No-one else seems to have drawn this character, so I can’t even make an alter. Fuck.

Gisela, Blade of Goldnight (10th most played as of writing)

Gisela has a lot of very attractive words on her. Unfortunately, 7 mana and that ability means that as soon as you drop her out of the zone, you better use her quick because she isn’t sticking around long. Obviously lends herself to group slug or Earthquake decks, but the former paints an even bigger target on your head and the latter is even mana hungrier than normal. I prefer her in the 99.

Aurelia, the Warleader (5th most played as of writing)

Aurelia was the “best” Boros commander for a long time, and it’s easy to see why- haste and an extra combat trigger add up to a lot of damage very quickly and it’s not like there was much competition for a while. She’s actually the only one of the top 5 Boros commanders that wasn’t printed in the last 5 years, so I guess she’s stood the test of time, much like Brion. I’d argue she’s pretty boring though, seeing as she has the one thing she does, but she does it well and there’s no faulting her for that. She’s the closest we have to r/custommagic’s favourite “double combat triggers” legend. A lot of people seem to run her as Angel Tribal too, which of the available Angels in the zone I’d argue that’s a pretty good shout. The Red/Boros Angels are fun!

Tajic, Blade of the Legion (20th most played as of writing)

The first on this list I’d consider playing as Voltron, Tajic’s first card is indestructible which as a former Sapling of Colfenor player is fucking excellent in the zone for when you have to play defensively. He does, however, require other creatures in the deck to truly shine, and you do have to have those creatures attack, so it can be awkward to get the most out of him. He’s a cool dude though, much better than his other card imo.

Anax and Cymede (23rd most played as of writing)

The first draft I ever played was a Born of the Gods draft in which I splashed Anax and Cymede. Clearly, I had no idea what I was doing. Anax and Cymede look a lot like Tajic in deck, to be honest, since they’re creatures that like having buffs but also want other creatures around to benefit. Heroic is kind of an awkward requirement, however, and I suspect you’d be spending more time just having it as a buff for the royals themselves. Its nice to see a loving married couple as a Magic card, though, I’m sure things will be good for them always.

Iroas, God of Victory (9th most played as of writing)

Somehow despite it being common in the 99 of aggressive decks, I don’t think I’ve ever seen an Iroas deck in my local metas. I think it has the potential to be pretty powerful, since if you can meet his (admittedly harsh) requirement he’s an indestructible evasive commander with that magical 7 power making commander damage a 3HKO. And when he’s not ready to rumble, he’s nigh impossible to kill on account of the limited targeted enchantment exile people tend to play in the format. Otherwise, he makes attacking free and bountiful for other creatures, and so is just kinda good to have around- I can see running him for that alone.

Munda, Ambush Leader (27th most played as of writing)

Somehow more people are playing Munda than Razia or Agrus, despite being just the worst commander with Ally in the text (outside the type line, love you Zada) and not doing actual anything outside of that. Why the fuck doesn’t he draw the cards? Why does he just stack them? God, Munda sucks. Also I have like 3 of them, since I drafted a lot of that deck in that environment and people just pass him around. Anyone want one? Be my guest.

Kalemne, Disciple of Iroas (11th most played as of writing)

Precon face commanders always get a bit more love and a bit more power than the average legend, and Kalemne is no exception. Double Strike in the zone on a creature that gets bigger is just nuts, and it means she kills people astonishingly quickly. Even my non-voltron Kalemne deck that just wanted to play big idiots had her as a huge threat since even if she gets killed she stays big. Kalemne also happens to be probably better for Giant tribal than Brion, though he does at least get to yeet those removal magnets if they do get removed.

Anya, Merciless Angel (26th most played as of writing)

I didn’t think Anya would be this low. While she is another indestructible commander, it is conditional, and her abilities are self-sabotaging- if someone is in range of being killed by her, you’re probably not going to want to attack them just so you can keep indestructible and buffs, but you also, yknow, want to kill them. I can see her being political in this way though- keeping someone alive with her swords at their throat can have some fun implications. I think shes underrated despite her awkwardness.

Archangel Avacyn (14th most played as of writing)

(Her colour identity is RW since her other face is a red creature. It’s a bit odd, I know)

Avacyn was fucking unbeatable in draft and obnoxious in Standard (though one of my favourite magic stories involves her, so,), and since I never managed to get one for Kalemne when that deck was around I have no real love for her. She’s generically powerful without leading in a particular direction, but her flip ability is pretty cool as is her story in the set. It’s OK. Also why do people keep putting her in Angel decks? You know she doesn’t flip off those, right?

Adriana, Captain of the Guard (22nd most played as of writing)

Adriana, Adriana. I didn’t dislike Adriana as much as I did until I actually did the math on her. Typical commander games are 4-player, so she is a +3/+3 anthem at maximum assuming you have good attacks on every single opponent and that none of them are dead yet. I’m really not sure why you’d play this over Jor Kadeen, and it looks like people aren’t, so. Melee was a fun mechanic in draft, but I completely understand why it hasn’t crossed over, ever, to other formats, seeing as there are 7 total cards with it and most of them are draft chaff. CONTINUED IN PART 2...ANOTHER DAY. PROBABLY SOON SINCE IT’S 2/3 DONE ALREADY.

#mtg #commander #edh #ramble #boros #fuck you adriana

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thrashermaxey · 5 years

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Ramblings: Draft Lottery; Lineup News; Looking Ahead – April 10

It was quite the eventful draft lottery as Colorado did not end up with the first overall pick, sliding to fourth. The Rangers, Devils, and Blackhawks all jumped into the top-3. New Jersey ended up grabbing the top pick with New York ending up in the second slot.

Should everything go to plan, the Devils will be adding an elite talent immediately to the lineup. This team desperately needed another elite talent up front and they got it. The Rangers get a great prospect in their own right. Not a bad night for those franchises, and sincerest sympathies to Avalanche fans.

Just want to say that I really hope Jake Bean can get into some postseason games for the Hurricanes. He had a marvelous AHL season and is a guy I’ve been waiting to see in the NHL for a couple years now. I assume there would have to be at least one more injury for him to get a spot in the lineup, but all the same, I have high hopes for the kid.

Slava Voynov has been suspended by the NHL for next season plus the 2020 playoffs for his domestic abuse plea deal. There had been murmurs that teams were interested in signing him, and this suspension will likely dissuade these suitors (not that they shouldn’t have been dissuaded before the suspension).

Minnesota general manager Paul Fenton expects both Mikko Koivu and Matt Dumba to be ready for the start of training camp in September. That’s great news for Wild fans and fantasy hockey enthusiasts.

Yesterday I was editing an article for Cameron Metz and in one paragraph he proclaimed that it marked the one-year anniversary for him at Dobber Hockey (congrats, Cam!). That got me thinking: this time of year would mark my own anniversary here at Dobber Hockey. Four years, to be exact. Next Tuesday will mark four years I’ve been with Dobber Hockey (man, time flies).

This link brings you to the first Ramblings I ever posted. Included are such topics as:

Peter Chiarelli being fired by the Bruins

Craig Berube’s future being up in the air with the Flyers

Boston’s cap crunch due to players like Carl Soderberg and Dougie Hamilton needing new contracts

The difference between Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek playing with Brayden Schenn and playing with Michael Raffl

Ryan Strome’s excellent 50-point season with the Islanders

Looking back at what’s happened since that Ramblings post nearly four years ago is kind of hilarious. Chiarelli has since been hired and fired by the Oilers, Berube is a coach of the year candidate in St. Louis, neither Soderberg nor Hamilton are still in Boston, Schenn is thriving in St. Louis, and Strome never recaptured that level of success. Time not only flies, but it makes fools of us all.

Seeing as this is the last day before playoffs start, it might be the last chance to do something like this, so I wanted to take a stab at what the NHL might look like in four years. Ready to be made a fool of again? I am.

Unbelievable Free Agent Class

A lot of stars have signed huge contracts in recent seasons with lengths of anywhere from six to eight years. A lot of those contracts will be running out in the same three-year span, and that will lead to a lot of talent in unrestricted free agency, even if they’re older. Per Cap Friendly, here are some of the names that could theoretically be available after the 2022-23 season: Patrick Kane, Vladimir Tarasenko, Jonathan Toews, David Pastrnak, Sean Monahan, Nathan MacKinnon, Dylan Larkin, Ryan O’Reilly, Max Pacioretty, James van Riemsdyk, Jonathan Huberdeau, Shayne Gostisbehere, and Bo Horvat. That kind of talent in a single free agent class is almost surreal.

Of course, as alluded to, a lot of players will be in their 30s by that point. There are a handful of guys who will be in their mid-to-late 20s like MacKinnon, Pastrnak, Monahan, and Larkin. With the likelihood of a lockout looming, will some of the older players not named who will also be UFA like Milan Lucic, Kyle Okposo, and Duncan Keith be bought out?

The younger guys, I’m sure, will be extended by their current teams. What about everyone else? Wouldn’t it be cool for Toews and Kane to do what Paul Kariya and Teemu Selanne did and take cheap contracts to sign somewhere together? Regardless, in a few years’ time, there will be a lot of high-profile free agents that will start hitting the market.

Colorado Powerhouse

It seems pretty likely that Colorado is one of the top teams in the league in four years, isn’t it? They’ll have MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen on the roster, Samuel Girard will be a top-tier puck-mover, Cale Makar has the look of a future Norris Trophy contender, and then there’s Ottawa’s top pick from this year. There will be a great core to build around and if management can manage to not pull an Edmonton or Buffalo, it will hopefully be a championship core.

Of course, there is a lot else the team will have to deal with. Their captain, Gabriel Landeskog, is a free agent after the 2020-21 season. Will he still be around? Will Tyson Barrie? Will any of the young guys currently on the roster like J.T. Compher, Alex Kerfoot, and Tyson Jost be making an impact on the 2022-23 roster? This is certainly a team on the rise, but the toughest leap to make is from a good team to a championship-calibre team. Can the Avs be that team?

I say yes. There were some early bumps in the road but the Avalanche management group has made solid deals over the last year or so. As long as they can keep making positive deals for the franchise, there’s no reason to believe they’ll flounder. I believe in April 2023, we’ll be talking about the Avalanche as one of the top franchises in the league, returning to the glory they enjoyed early in the franchise’s existence.

Tkachuk Brothers

In the fantasy game, guys I have a soft spot for are the across-the-board performers. They’re guys who may not excel in any individual category, but the sum of their parts makes for a great fantasy campaign. In years gone by, this included names like David Backes, Wayne Simmonds, and Andrew Ladd. When looking around the league currently, names like Kyle Palmieri, Gabriel Landeskog, and Brendan Gallagher fit this bill. We’re always looking to the future, and it appears the future in this category belongs to the Brothers Tkachuk.

In many ways, they’ve already sort of arrived in this position. The elder Tkachuk, Matthew, was a top-30 fantasy player in standard Yahoo! leagues this year, one year after being a top-130 player. He’s a young star on the rise and he’s proved himself as such.

Brady Tkachuk has also arrived but not to the same degree just yet. He had a marvelous rookie season, becoming sixth 19-year old rookie since the 2012 lockout to post a season with at least 20 goals, 20 assists, and 200 shots, joining Dylan Larkin, Jack Eichel, Sebastian Aho, Auston Matthews, and Clayton Keller. To put the cherry on top in multi-category leagues, Tkachuk had 75 penalty minutes and 174 hits. That is just outstanding.

It very much appears that Matthew and Brady will follow in the footsteps of past multi-cat stars like Backes and Simmonds, and current multi-cat stars like Gallagher and Landeskog. In four years, it’s very likely that both of those players are easily top-50 picks in roto leagues, if not higher.

Alex Ovechkin

It’s hard to imagine, but in four years, Ovechkin could be with a different franchise (he’s UFA after the 2020-21 season). I don’t actually think he’ll finish his career anywhere else but Washington, I’m just saying it’s possible. Regardless, if Ovechkin can average 40 goals a year for the next four years, he’ll have passed Gordie Howe on the all-time goal scoring list and will be about 80 goals behind Wayne Gretzky for the all-time record.

Of course, the major wrench that could be thrown in all this is the potential of a lockout after the 2019-20 season. Ovechkin already lost a season and a half to lockouts, which have cost him, what, about 60 goals by now? If we lose another season, that’ll make Ovechkin’s task even more difficult.

It could be very likely that in four years, we’re lamenting what could have been with Alex Ovechkin. His pursuit of Gretzky’s record could be one of the great record chases of this generation. Will Ovechkin have maintained his elite goal scoring prowess while not losing a season to the lockout? I’m hopeful, but the NHL’s history with labour negotiations is cause for concern.

Seattle

With Seattle getting an NHL franchise, the league will be at 32 teams. This new franchise is going to have the same rebuild rules as Vegas, so will the enjoy the same early success as Vegas?

I think to expect any expansion franchise to replicate the accomplishments of the Golden Knights through their first two seasons is expecting far too much. I think teams will have learned from this mistake. You won’t have teams ship out 30-goal scorers on bargain contracts (Florida), letting go of multiple young prospects to save one player (Minnesota), or over-paying to get rid of a bad contract (Columbus). Well, you probably won’t… shouldn’t? Regardless, I do think teams will learn from their mistakes and Seattle will be in for a rough early couple seasons.

This isn’t to say there won’t be hope. The end of the 2022-23 season will bring Seattle to the end of their second season. It’ll will probably be another year of missing playoffs, but they’ll have an absolutely loaded cupboard of prospects. There will be a lot of promise for the years that follow.

Seattle’s new franchise is going to go through growing pains that Vegas did not have to endure due unimaginably bad decisions across the league. But in four years, there will be promise of much better days ahead.

Those are a few things I’ll be looking for in four years. How about you? What stands out as something we accept now that’ll change in four years? What will be the same? Hit up the comments.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-draft-lottery-lineup-news-looking-ahead-april-10/

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thrashermaxey · 6 years

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Ramblings: Season-Ending Q+A (Mar 30)

Today’s ramblings will be a blowout Q+A. Enjoy!

{source} <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Will Mat Barzal be a PPG player again next year and/or what is his value if John Tavares leaves New York?</p>— Will Weiler (@wweiler) <a href="https://twitter.com/wweiler/status/978597798177333249?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 27, 2018</a></blockquote>

I have mild concerns about all the point totals we have seen this season. The early crackdown on obstruction led to penalties getting called at a rate we hadn’t seen in years, and the subsequent bump in power plays shot goal scoring up about an extra goal per game. That lasted for about a month and then things got back to normal.

That October bump is a big reason why of the 39 individual seasons in which a player scored 30+ PPP in a season over the past five years 13 of them (a third) are from this year, and that number is likely to climb with a little over a week remaining and several players knocking on the door.

Power plays are getting more efficient across the board as more teams buy into the four-forward look, but there has been a significant give-back in goal scoring since October. With teams better adapted to how the game is getting called, plus the natural progression away from referees making those calls, I doubt that we see scoring the level we saw it in the first month of the season.

For Barzal, who has 24 PPP, any slippage could see him fall below the point-per-game mark. However, Barzal scored only one of his 24 PPP in October. His season didn’t take off in full until November, when the Islanders finally sorted out which line Jordan Eberle should play on, and also that Barzal should indeed become a primary part of their top power play unit.

Barzal is also a super-duper star, capable of carrying his own line, and potentially his own team. No doubt life would become more difficult losing John Tavares as he’d get more attention from the oppositions best players as well as more focus from coaching staffs trying to shut him down. However, a guy who skates like Barzal is always going to be able to put the opposition into crisis.

My main concern would be if the Islanders make a coaching change and get away from the wide-open play they have had all season. A coach not so content to trade chances could stifle Barzal by really having him focus on becoming a more complete two-way player. I suspect that plan would be accelerated if Tavares leaves.

There are also reasons to be suspect of assist-heavy players. Barzal’s performance is all too similar to Evgeny Kuznetsov’s breakout 2015-16 season. Kuznetsov’s subsequent decline in 2016-17 was a shock to many as it was assumed Kuznetsov had asserted himself as a star. As this season will prove, Kuznetsov is indeed a star. His point-per-game play was not a one-off, however he needs players around him to finish. What happened to Kuznetsov doesn’t guarantee that Barzal will decline next season, but it is an outcome we must consider.

The safe play is to peg Barzal for just under a point-per-game season as a hedge against the “sophomore slump” and that’s with or without Tavares. I suspect that if Tavares leaves there may be an overcorrection against Barzal underrating what he is capable of on his own.

{source} <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Where you taking Dahlin? Mcdavid was ranked #43 in his rookie year, do you take Dahlin before or after 43rd?</p>— Amet Garewal (@dreamzmann) <a href="https://twitter.com/dreamzmann/status/978486276285374468?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 27, 2018</a></blockquote>

As I outlined earlier this month, it is staggeringly difficult for defensemen to jump from the draft right into the NHL. Even if Dahlin can break the mould and be a 50-point defenseman out of the gate that still isn’t necessarily worth a top-50 pick in one-year leagues. I’d aim for Dahlin at the very end of drafts if drafting him at all. Perhaps outside the top 200. How about undrafted?

Dahlin can simultaneously be the best defenseman prospect to come along in years, a genuine franchise altering defenseman, and still not have fantasy relevance in his first few years.

{source} <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">12 team H2H keepers league. Which goalie would you draft first next year? Price Andersen Holtby Darling Mrazek Bobrovsky? Thanks</p>— FaNHockey HABS (@patrick_neron) <a href="https://twitter.com/patrick_neron/status/978695671464251398?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 27, 2018</a></blockquote>

There’s a fun rollercoaster that seems to happen with the goaltending position, and even in trying to get out in front of it, I’ve still fallen victim to it. This past year, my top tier was:

Carey Price

Cam Talbot

Matt Murray

Frederik Andersen

I was pretty well set that if I was going to have a top tier goalie it was going to be Andersen as he was the only real value proposition available from that tier. In most drafts, you could have gotten Andersen in the sixth or seventh round with a pick somewhere around 70th overall. That would have been one of the better bargains, and if you followed my draft list you surely bagged him.

I didn’t have Holtby in that top tier, despite being the best goalie in fantasy hockey over the previous few seasons. I succeeded in getting out in front of that regression. The rest of my top tier? Not so much.

After a strong season, I suspect Andersen will be overvalued next season, while guys like Holtby, and Talbot will be undervalued. I don’t think Price or Murray will take much of a hit given the high profile of their respective teams.

As for your specific question, I think I’d have to take Sergei Bobrovsky off that list. Will he be my #1 next year? He’ll be close. I’ll have a tough time keeping him out of my top tier again. I am afraid of the goalie rollercoaster, but there is a good argument that Bobrovsky is the best goalie in hockey. Here’s the top five for save percentage over the past five seasons:

Sv%

Philipp Grubauer

0.923

John Gibson

0.923

Carey Price

0.923

Corey Crawford

0.922

Sergei Bobrovsky

0.922

Bobrovsky has consistently been excellent, and he provides the added bonus of annually cranking it up another notch in the month of March during the fantasy playoffs:

Wins

Losses

GAA

Sv%

Shutouts

October

2.71

0.911

November

2.3

0.923

December

2.43

0.922

January

2.61

0.916

February

2.78

0.905

March

2.1

0.932

April

2.39

0.922

He does this every damned year to the point that it’s scary. If you’ve been a Bobrovsky owner these past few years, you have made a killing, especially in H2H leagues.

{source} <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Is Mrazek worth anything more than a bag of pucks after this season?</p>— Benoît Rivard (@ben_haggis) <a href="https://twitter.com/ben_haggis/status/978592125792260096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 27, 2018</a></blockquote>

Petr Mrazek hasn’t shown out the way we might have hoped since landing in Philadelphia:

Wins

Losses

GAA

Sv%

Shutouts

Detroit

2.89

0.91

Philadelphia

3.11

0.890

This has probably cost him any shot at a starting gig next season. You also have to think that the Flyers won’t be qualifying him at $4 million this summer so he’ll be a UFA looking for a backup gig. He could save this with a big playoff run, but that is looking exceedingly unlikely. If you’re offering Mrazek around in your league, he won’t be worth much.

How many times have we seen a goalie look lost before landing in the right situation with the right goalie coach, rediscover his confidence and prove himself to be a legitimate starter? Devan Dubnyk lost three seasons in his mid-20’s before rediscovering his game in Arizona. He did enough there to warrant a trade to Minnesota that saved the Wild’s season and Dubnyk’s career. Someone is going to give Mrazek a shot this summer whether it works out or not, there’s a chance he could become relevant again.

{source} <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Which coach gets canned first in the offseason ?</p>— paul canosa (@PaulCanosa) <a href="https://twitter.com/PaulCanosa/status/978612581685317632?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 27, 2018</a></blockquote>

My money would be on Bill Peters as the only coach on a team without a GM. It doesn’t necessarily sound like the Hurricanes are going to be an organization where the GM gets to “pick his guy” as Tom Dundon seems to want to have more of a direct line to the coach where they’d act a bit more as separate entities, but whoever is making that call, whether the new GM or the owner, neither one hired Peters.

There’s also this nugget from Elliotte Friedman’s latest 31 Thoughts:

3. Carolina’s Bill Peters has one year remaining on his contract, but, according to several sources, he has an “out” after this season. He’s obviously not going to talk about it while the Hurricanes are still playing, but my understanding is he has approximately one week after their season ends to activate it. Peters has a $1.6-million salary for 2018-19.

{source} <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Thanks for doing this. H2H multicat (incl.SOG, PPP, FOW, hits…) keeper league- Eichel or MacKinnon?</p>— Tomastop (@TooSlowH) <a href="https://twitter.com/TooSlowH/status/978717275200114691?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 27, 2018</a></blockquote>

Nathan MacKinnon has had the breakout season I was projecting Jack Eichel to have. Not that Eichel has been bad, and he certainly has the potential to match MacKinnon on most fronts, but you have to go with MacKinnon.

{source} <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Starting a new 12 keeper league next year. After Mcdavid at #1 who are your 11 best keepers as first round targets.</p>— Joe Bond (@joexbondo) <a href="https://twitter.com/joexbondo/status/978710326995664896?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 27, 2018</a></blockquote>

Some of this would depend on format, but for pure points the simplest method would be to go with Dobber’s list. That list still leans heavily towards value for this season. Looking at next year and after McDavid you’re going with:

Nikita Kucherov, Nathan MacKinnon, Johnny Gaudreau, Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Brad Marchand, Erik Karlsson (assuming some distinction between forwards and defensemen), Steven Stamkos and Patrick Kane in some order.

My list leaves out a lot of talent (some of which would rise in different formats) and doesn’t even include goaltending, which would necessitate including at least Andrei Vasilevskiy and John Gibson, and perhaps more depending on format.

{source} <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Top 2 or 3 defensemen you’re targeting next year AFTER Karlsson and Burns</p>— Matt Stallone (@StalloneMatt) <a href="https://twitter.com/StalloneMatt/status/978710932636487680?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 27, 2018</a></blockquote>

Who I target, and who I rank after those two are two separate ideas because in drafts it’s all about value. This season, I targeted Alex Pietrangelo, John Carlson and Shayne Gostisbehere outside the top-50 players and in some cases, outside the top-100. All three produced 50+ points. You also could have made hay targeting Tyson Barrie and Keith Yandle as undervalued guys headed for bounce-back seasons.

Who to target that will give you value in later rounds allowing you to chase forwards early? Kevin Shattenkirk, Shea Weber, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Kris Letang, Duncan Keith, Rasmus Ristolainen, Sami Vatanen and maybe Zach Werenski. None of those guys would rank directly behind the top two defensemen but have a better shot at being undervalued as a result. We’ll have to see what trends emerge come draft season.

{source} <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">What do you see for Guentzel next year?</p>— Dan Anderson (@BitterDan) <a href="https://twitter.com/BitterDan/status/978741959262179328?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 27, 2018</a></blockquote>

You’ll find Jake Guentzel on my list of rebound candidates for next season, however getting a 60-point season is probably the max he can offer with Patric Hornqvist due to return. Mid-50’s with strong peripherals is my projection at this stage, which may not be worth reaching for, especially if he has another huge playoff run.

{source} <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Who’s going have a better year next year. Pierce Luc-Dubois or Casey Mittelstadt?</p>— Daniel Duke (@canadianduke) <a href="https://twitter.com/canadianduke/status/978609130314190850?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 27, 2018</a></blockquote>

If you’ve followed along all year, you know I am a big fan of the Wood Man. I expect even more from Pierre-Luc Dubois next season. It isn’t certain that Mittelstadt will even be in the NHL next season (though it does seem quite likely).

{source} <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">How you project Dustin Byfuglien next season given his role on a good offensive team.</p>— Nick DeStef (@NickDeStef7) <a href="https://twitter.com/NickDeStef7/status/978591302030798849?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 27, 2018</a></blockquote>

Dustin Byfuglien just turned 33 and saw himself getting phased out a bit this season from the astronomical loads he was asked to carry in previous seasons. He also went through a horrible shooting drought that he should bounce back from.

Figuring out where Byfuglien stands next season may have to wait until the offseason. The Jets have some big decisions with Jacob Trouba, Josh Morrissey, Connor Hellebuyck, Adam Lowry and others hitting restricted free agency, most of whom with arbitration rights. They have roughly $25 million in cap space to play with, but that will go quick between those four guys, let alone the others and also filling in holes on roster with Paul Stastny and Tobias Enstrom hitting unrestricted free agency. They may also be forced to carry some bonus overages forward to their 2018-19 cap with guys like Patrik Laine, Nikolai Ehlers, and Kyle Connor producing well on their entry-level deals. No one feels sorry for the Jets, this is a good problem to have. How they negotiate this situation will decide how much they have to lean on Byfuglien who is unlikely to be heading anywhere.

The easiest solution would be to move Tyler Myers who is redundant as a big money right-side defenseman on a team with Byfuglien and Trouba. $5.5 million is a lot to pay for a third pairing guy, even one as talented and capable as Myers. His deal expires at the end of next season, so he’d mostly be a rental, but moving him to patch another hole (either a left-side defenseman or a middle-six centerman) could allow for internal growth with Tucker Poolman expected to be ready for regular duty and clear some cap space.

Moving on from Myers (who has eaten into a bit of Byfuglien’s power play time) would mean leaning on Byfuglien and Trouba more heavily. Perhaps leaning on the 33-year-old isn’t ideal as he ages, but they are paying him like he can carry a heavy load.

The difference between Byfuglien playing the 24:26 he has averaged this season and the 27:27 he averaged the year prior adds up though almost exclusively in peripheral categories, especially with SOG. With continued usage at this season’s rate, we’re talking 200 SOG, lowering his goal projection to the 8-13 -range and his standard 35-40 assists. Bump Byfuglien’s usage back up and his goal-scoring potential increases with his shot volume.

It’s worth noting that despite his shooting percentage going in the tank and a decline in usage, Byfuglien’s per-game scoring hasn’t deviated much from the average he has posted the past few seasons:

Points/Game

2014-2015

0.65

2015-2016

0.65

2016-2017

0.65

2017-2018

0.63

That’s likely because most of what Byfuglien has lost in ice time comes from the penalty kill, which aren’t important minutes for scoring. It doesn’t hurt his peripherals though. If you play in a league with blocked shots, the decrease in penalty kill time for Byfuglien has cost him roughly one blocked shot every seven games, which adds up to a dozen over a full season. His hits are down too. Byfuglien’s usage going into decline at a time when his skills might also be fading could have had a deleterious effect on his numbers, but it has also come with the Jets emerging as an elite team, which has helped blunt any aging effects we might otherwise have seen. It has likely been helpful that his PK usage is down.

Byfuglien remains an elite multi-category option and a locked-in top-20 point-scoring defenseman. He doesn’t quite have the same upside as once before. It seems unlikely that he’s ever going to go for 20+ goals and 60+ points (a level he never did hit but always felt like he might). Byfuglien’s floor remains high, which makes him a safe option.

{source} <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Who are your top 5 overrated players heading into next season for fantasy</p>— Nick (@proofreadmeat) <a href="https://twitter.com/proofreadmeat/status/978484450765000704?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 27, 2018</a></blockquote>

Shameless plug for the DobberHockey Guide. Each summer I put together the top-20 regression candidates for the guide and I assume I will be reprising that piece this summer, so for this one, you’ll have to wait for August.

Thanks for reading! You can follow me on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.

from All About Sports https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-rambling/ramblings-season-ending-qa-mar-30/

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