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haillenarte · 5 years

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not-so-silent night

Here is a partial translation of “Not-so-silent Night,” this year’s Starlight Celebration quest.

Longtime followers of this blog will be well aware of my general translation style, but for the record, this is a slightly stylized translation done in the style of the official localization. It is not completely literal in some parts. For example, in a place where Maisenta simply said “Delicate and beautiful music is sold,” an awkward sentence by English literary standards, I invented a followup to make it “Delicate and beautiful music always sells well — all the better when it is performed by delicate and beautiful men.” I do this kind of thing primarily because people criticize “the Japanese version” as being “dry and boring” if I don’t, but I promise you that apart from minor additions like these, the sentiment and tone of the Japanese version is unchanged.

Note that Maisenta’s reaction to you is slightly different depending on whether or not you completed the postmoogle quest “Sweet Words, Shadowy Dealings.” The guildmasters also react differently if they have reason to recognize you.

NOT-SO-SILENT NIGHT 星芒祭の協力者たち "starlight symphonists”

(lit. “collaborators of the starlight celebration”)

マイセンタ : お待たせしましたわね。ゲヴァさんとは仕事上、懇意にしていますから、内密な商談などに、この場をお借りしているのですわ。マイセンタ : 警備が厳重なところほど、内側に潜り込めれば、安全ですからね。私が出入りしていても、仕入れとしか思われませんし。

MAISENTA: Thank you for waiting on my behalf. Guildmaster Geva and I know each other through business, so she lets me use the terrace here for, ahem, confidential negotiations. And other such things. MAISENTA: Oh, are you concerned about our speaking outside? I assure you, there’s no need to worry. The security around the Leatherworker’s Guild is so reliable that I’ve had plenty of private conversations here without issue. Besides, even if anyone spots us leaving or entering, they’ll simply assume that I’m here to purchase Fen-Yll goods.

LOCALIZATION Maisenta: Thank you for agreeing to meet me here. I'm on good terms with Guildmaster Geva and she lets me use this space for...well, that's a story for another time. Or perhaps never. Maisenta: Naturally, a quiet spot like this is ideal for avoiding unwanted attention, while the guard─who has been asked to turn a blind eye─is an effective deterrent to any would-be eavesdroppers.

→ If you have not completed the Postmoogle quest...

マイセンタ : この子たちは、「ホムンクルス」という吟遊詩人集団ですわ。黒兎堂が資金を援助して、活動の支援をする代わりに、うちの広告塔になってもらっていますの。マイセンタ : これでも、グリダニアの婦女子を中心に、けっこう人気がありますのよ。繊細で美しい詩歌が売りですの。

MAISENTA: Now, shall I introduce you to my boys? These are the traveling bards known as the Homunculi. We maintain a mutually beneficial relationship, you see: Black Rabbit Traders gives them financial support for their musical endeavors, and they promote our fine range of fashionable attire in return. MAISENTA: As I’m sure you can imagine, they are wildly adored by the women of Gridania. Delicate and beautiful music always sells well — all the better when it is performed by delicate and beautiful men.

LOCALIZATION Maisenta: It gives me great pleasure to introduce the Homunculi, the greatest musical sensation the realm has ever known. While I am not one to boast, I should point out that I played no small part in bringing them and my organization, Black Rabbit Traders, together in a mutually beneficial partnership. Maisenta: We cover their expenses while they promote our fine range of fashionable attire as they enchant hoards of besotted onlookers. Although I should warn you─any rumors of them siring a string of bastards across Eorzea are entirely unfounded. Well, mostly unfounded.

→ If you have completed the Postmoogle quest...

マイセンタ : それにしても、あなたと「ホムンクルス」がそろっていると、あわや契約解消になりそうだった、あの事件を思い出しますわ。遠い昔のような、最近のような……不思議な気分ですわね。マイセンタ : 彼らの活動も順調でしてよ。いまはエオルゼア諸都市をめぐる巡業公演の夢にむけて、黒兎堂も引き続き、彼らの支援を行っておりますの。

MAISENTA: Still, when I see you here together with the Homunculi, I’m reminded of that time we nearly dissolved our contract. Strange to think about it now, isn’t it? It feels like a long time ago and only a little while ago at the same time. MAISENTA: The boys are just as beloved as ever, of course. Black Rabbit Traders is well on its way to funding that musical tour of Eorzea they’ve always dreamed of!

LOCALIZATION Maisenta: As I am sure you know, the Homunculi cause a stir wherever they go, and I need them focused on the task at hand. It's strange to think that without your intervention all those moons ago, they would have escaped my clu─ahem─would have been lost to me forever, and here we all are, reunited. Maisenta: You will no doubt be pleased to hear that since the last time you saw them, my honey-tongued musical geniuses have been touring the breadth of the realm. Naturally, Black Rabbit Traders continue to enjoy a profitable relationship with Eorzea's most beloved traveling bards.

マイセンタ : さて、本題に入りましょう。星芒祭の実行委員が、歌い手を募集していると聞いて、私はすぐに、話をつけにいきましたわ。マイセンタ : もちろん、ホムンクルスを売り込むためです。こんなによい商機を、みすみす逃すわけにはいきませんわ。マイセンタ : 星芒祭の音楽会でホムンクルスが演奏すれば、市民たちの間で、彼らに対する好感度が高まるでしょう？そのうえ黒兎堂も、商売に一枚かませてもらえる。マイセンタ : 星芒祭の実行委員も、ホムンクルスの知名度で集客が見込めるのです。誰にとっても、よい結果になる商談ですわ。マイセンタ : 音楽堂の手配もして、何の問題もなくことは進んでいると、思っていたのですけれど……。オスカルレ : 歌う曲が、ね……。ちょっと問題があって……。普通だったら、僕たちが作曲もやるんだけど……。

MAISENTA: Now, why don’t we talk shop? I heard that the Starlight Celebration was in need of musical entertainment, so naturally, I volunteered my wonderful Homunculi for the task. MAISENTA: I mean, as a businesswoman, I’d be a fool to let this opportunity slip me by! MAISENTA: By performing at the Starlight Celebration, the Homunculi will acquire new admirers, and Black Rabbit Traders will make plenty of gil selling the luxurious garments that the boys wear onstage. MAISENTA: And what’s more, the Homunculi’s existing fans will flock to the Starlight Celebration — which means a bigger turnout for the celebrants, and good business for virtually everyone involved. A flawless plan, no? MAISENTA: Well, the concert hall has been appropriately decorated, and it looks as though everything will go off without a hitch... but alas, we have one last crucial problem on our hands. OSCARLET: It’s the music, see... Normally, we compose our own songs, but that won’t work this time around.

LOCALIZATION Maisenta: Of course, it won't do to have this conversation interrupted by legions of squealing followers, hence our current venue. As for their role in the Starlight Celebration, I jumped at the chance to have them take center stage. Maisenta: Admirers will flock from malms around for the chance to see the Homunculi and their new, specially prepared material. Maisenta: I can picture it now... The dulcet tones of my beautiful bards filling the ears of festival-goers young and old, with Black Rabbit Traders making gil hand over fist from all of the garments we sell. Maisenta: And what's more, the presence of such renowned artists will raise the profile of the celebration, meaning that Amh Garanjy and her Starlight celebrants will have even more reason to be cheerful. Maisenta: All that remains is for the Homunculi to fulfill their part of the bargain, and put together a few songs for the concert itself. Therein lies the problem. Oscarlet: Were this any other performance, we would mesmerize the crowds with a few favorites from our repertoire, such as “Fair Lady, Return My Breeches” or “Hey Nonny, Nonny, Maiden Most Bonny.” Fearing that such material may not be...appropriate, we thought it best to work on some new pieces.

オギュスティニエル : 星芒祭は、イシュガルドの実話をもとにした聖祭だろ？オレたちは、グリダニアの音色しか知らないから、作曲家に音楽の製作を依頼したのさ。オギュスティニエル : そしたら、どこで行き違ったのか、頼んだ内容と違う楽譜が届いちまったんだ……！男女混声で、4人で歌うなんて、これっぽっちもかすってねぇ！オルセルフォ : 作��直してもらうにも、もはや間に合いません……。いまの私たちは、嘆きの森をさまよう、か弱き乙女のよう……。

AUGUSTINIEL: Our music is composed in the Gridanian tradition, but given that the Starlight Celebration is an Ishgardian holiday, and a holy festival at that, we thought it best to reserve our sylvan melodies for another performance on some other day. Thus, we sought the aid of an Ishgardian composer who would have better knowledge of what the celebrants envision. AUGUSTINIEL: So imagine our surprise when we received the manuscripts only to find that they were not as we requested! This score is written for a mixed choir — four singers, two male and two female. How could they have possibly misconstrued something so important? ORSELFAUX: And there certainly isn’t enough time to have it rewritten. We are helpless as fragile maidens, wandering lost in the Shroud...

LOCALIZATION Augustiniel: But this occasion calls for traditional Ishgardian music, whereas we weave our entrancing melodies in the classic Gridanian style. To better fulfill the needs of the Starlight Celebration, we sought the aid of an Ishgardian composer. Augustiniel: Upon taking receipt of the manuscripts, however, we found that they were written for a mixed choir. Four singers, two male and two female. It does not take a musical aficionado to appreciate that the Homunculi are ill-equipped for such a performance. Orselfaux: To make matters worse, there simply isn't time to have the pieces rewritten. We are well and truly out of our element, like proverbial babes in the wood. Whatever will we do?

マイセンタ : もうっ！　ウジウジしている場合ではありませんわ！こうなってしまった以上、いまある選択肢で、できることを考えなくては！マイセンタ : まずは、歌い手の問題ですわね。男女混声では、3人を歌わせることができませんもの。あらたな歌い手を探さないと……。マイセンタ : 作曲家から受け取った楽譜には、歌い手の声質の指示も記載されていましたわ。けれど、どれもこれも、抽象的なものばかり……。マイセンタ : 「小鳥のさえずりのような軽やかな女声」に、「水のように柔らかな女声」と「木々のような伸びやかな男声」。そして「大地のとどろきのような男声」……。マイセンタ : 急には、思いつきませんわね…………。

MAISENTA: Oh, come on, now! Do you all plan to just stand there and mope until the celebration starts? With things the way they are, we need to evaluate our options and decide on what we can do about it! MAISENTA: Let’s focus on the issue of our vocalists. With a mixed choir of two men and two women, we have three roles that need to be filled. I’m sure one of you can take at least one of the male roles. MAISENTA: Fortunately, the composer saw fit to provide instructions on the kinds of voices this score requires. But these descriptions are certainly... abstract. MAISENTA: First, we need a female voice “light and airy as the chirping of a bird,” whereas the other female voice must be “velvety as water.” One male voice needs to be “reminiscent of the outstretched branches of a tree,” but the second male voice must “rumble with the strength of the earth.”

LOCALIZATION Maisenta: All of this moping is getting us nowhere! Are you professionals or not? Maisenta: What we need are solutions, and fast. First of all, let us select our vocalists. Maisenta: Luckily, the composer has provided instructions on the kind of voices required to carry the melody. Though I must admit, I can make neither head nor tail of these notes. Maisenta: One of the female voices must be “as uplifting as birdsong on a crisp winter's morning,” and the other “ephemeral as a zephyr across a sun-dappled stream.” For the males, “reminiscent of a mighty oak's outstretched boughs” and “deep and cavernous as the bowels of the earth.” Maisenta: We have to start our search somewhere I suppose.

マイセンタ : [PLAYER]さんは、どなたか思い当たりませんこと？マイセンタ : あなたの想像でいいので、向いていそうな方の、名前を挙げてくださらない？たとえば「小鳥のさえずりのような軽やかな女声」とか……。

MAISENTA: [PLAYER], what do you think? MAISENTA: Can you think of anyone with a voice as “light and airy as the chirping of a bird?”

LOCALIZATION Maisenta: Francel, perhaps you can help. Maisenta: Can you think of anyone who possesses a voice “as uplifting as birdsong on a crisp winter's morning?”

→ If you choose Amh Garanjy...

マイセンタ : たしかにあの方は、可愛らしい印象どおりの声をしていましたわね！マイセンタ : 星芒祭のためとあれば、断らないだろうし…… 彼女以上の適任はいないでしょう。あなた、よく思いつきましたわね。

MAISENTA: She does have an rather cute voice, doesn’t she? MAISENTA: And as a Starlight celebrant, she isn’t likely to refuse us should we ask for her aid. I daresay there’s no one better-suited to the role. My, you’ve chosen well.

LOCALIZATION Maisenta: Why hadn't I thought of that? If the cheerful manner in which she speaks is any indication, her singing voice may be exactly what we are looking for. Maisenta: Being a Starlight celebrant, she can hardly refuse. I daresay you've found the perfect candidate.

→ If you choose a chocobo...

マイセンタ : チョ、チョコボ……！？あなた本気で言ってますの……？合唱をするんですのよ！マイセンタ : そうだわ、あの星芒祭実行委員長の、アムさんなんかいいんじゃないかしら！わ、我ながらよく思いついたわ！

MAISENTA: A-A chocobo?! I’m sorry, are you suggesting that in earnest? You do realize we’re talking about a choir, here?! MAISENTA: Ugh, well, how about Amh? She’ll be perfectly suited to the task! I think she’s an excellent choice — even if I do say so myself...

LOCALIZATION Maisenta: A chocobo!? Where the manuscripts mention birdsong, I don't think it was supposed to be taken literally! We can't have one of those smelly beasts kweh-ing its way through the concert. Maisenta: If I were you, I would avoid making similar japes in future─ It really doesn't suit you, dear. For lack of any better suggestions, how about...Amh Garanjy? Come to think of it, she may well be the perfect choice. A charming young lady like her is sure to have a singing voice to match.

マイセンタ : 次は……そうね、「水のように柔らかな女声」はどうかしら。こちらも、あなたの想像でいいので、どなたか思いつくなら、教えてほしいですわ！

MAISENTA: Next, we need to find a female vocalist with a voice as “velvety as water.” Who comes to your mind when you hear that description?

LOCALIZATION Maisenta: With that settled, we should move on to our second female vocalist. Can you think of anyone with a voice as “ephemeral as a zephyr across a sun-dappled stream?”

→ If you choose Maisenta...

マイセンタ : わ、私ですって……？そんな、私には経験もないし、無理よ！マイセンタ : いや、でも…………。ホムンクルスと黒兎堂のためなら……やりますわ。この事業が失敗したら、黒兎堂の名折れですもの。

MAISENTA: M-Me...? But — but I haven’t any experience in singing! MAISENTA: Well... Oh, don’t look at me like that. If it’s for the Homunculi and Black Rabbit Traders, I can’t just excuse myself from the proceedings, can I? I mean, if this whole production flops, it’s my tailfeathers on the line...

LOCALIZATION Maisenta: Me!? You must be joking! Maisenta: You're serious, aren't you? Hmm...I am somewhat partial to humming the odd tune while enjoying a long soak in the bath. I should be able to get through it without making too big a fool of myself. And it's for a good cause.

→ If you choose Kan-e-Senna...

マイセンタ : カヌ・エ様……！？あなた、とんでもないことをおっしゃるのね……。この国を導く方に、そんなことさせられるわけないでしょう。マイセンタ : あの方以外に思いつかないのなら…… 私がやるしかないでしょうね。ホムンクルスと黒兎堂のためですもの。

MAISENTA: Kan-e-Senna?! You... You really do say the most outrageous things, don’t you? I should think this hardly needs to be said, but her time would be better spent on the betterment of the nation. MAISENTA: Oh, very well. If you truly can’t think of anyone else, I’ll just have to do it myself. I’ll just tell myself it’s for the sake of the Homunculi and Black Rabbit Traders...

LOCALIZATION Maisenta: The Elder Seedseer herself!? Have you taken leave of your senses? Generous and benevolent she may be, but I struggle to imagine her joining our little choir group! Maisenta: There's only one thing for it: I will just have to do it myself. My devotion to the Homunculi and Black Rabbit Traders compels me! There is also the fact that I have already invested too much in this venture to allow it to fail now.

オギュスティニエル : そいつはいい考えだぜ！オレたちも、マイセンタさんっていい声してるって、前から思ってたんだ！マイセンタ : ま、まったく、口がうまいんですから！そんなに褒めても、特別賞与は出しませんわよ！オスカルレ : あとは、男声ができる2人だね！僕たちのうちの、誰かができるといいんだけど。オルセルフォ : 「木々のような伸びやかな男声」は、私たちの中でもっとも声のとおる、オギュスティニエルが最適ではないでしょうか……。マイセンタ : それはもちろん、オギュがいいでしょうけれど……。残りの「大地のとどろきのような男声」が問題ですわ。あなたたちのような繊細な声では、合わないですから……。マイセンタ : ……この件はひとまず保留にいたしましょう。あとで私が適任な者を探しておきますわ。

AUGUSTINIEL: What a magnificent suggestion! Maisenta, dearest, haven’t we always told you that you have a lovely voice? MAISENTA: Don’t you sweet-talk me! You can praise me all you like, but you’re not going to get any year-end bonuses out of it! OSCARLET: So, what about the male vocalists, then? I hope one of us can do it! ORSELFAUX: “Reminiscent of the outstretched branches of a tree.” Of the three of us, I would say Augustiniel would be best-suited to that role. MAISENTA: Well, yes, Aug can certainly take that part. But the second male vocalist must have a voice that can “rumble with the strength of the earth.” You and Oscarlet have more... silken vocals. MAISENTA: ...Well, let’s just put that off for now. We'll simply have to find someone for it later.

LOCALIZATION Augustiniel: Maisenta, my darling! It would be an honor to join my voice with yours in musical matrimony! Maisenta: Let's not get carried away! For all you know, I could be a dreadful singer! Oscarlet: Fear not, my lady, for we shall be on hand to provide all the tutelage you might require. Though the question remains─which two lucky fellows will be accompanying you? Orselfaux: “Reminiscent of a mighty oak's outstretched boughs.” I would say that description fits Augustiniel's soaring vocals. Maisenta: I couldn't agree more. Finding someone whose voice is “deep and cavernous as the bowels of the earth” may prove a little more challenging. The Homunculi's music rarely ventures into the lower notes. Maisenta: At the risk of volunteering myself for that role too, mayhaps we should put that matter to one side for now.

マイセンタ : [PLAYER]さんには申し訳ないけれど、ごらんのとおり、仕事がとても立て込んでおりますの。私たちを助けると思って、お手伝いいただけないかしら。マイセンタ : 感謝いたしますわ！では、あなたには「聖歌隊のタクト」と「聖歌隊の衣装」の、調達をお願いいたします。マイセンタ : それぞれ、「木工師ギルド」の「ベアティヌ」さんと、ウルダハの「裁縫師ギルド」にいる、「レドレント・ローズ」さんに発注してありますの。マイセンタ : あなたは、それらを引き取ってくださるだけでかまいませんわ！その後は「ミィ・ケット野外音楽堂」の、「アム・ガランジ」さんに渡してくださいませね。マイセンタ : 私たちも、歌い手の手配をしたらまいりますわ！どうかよろしくお願いいたしますね。

MAISENTA: I hate to trouble you, [PLAYER], but as you can see, I’ll have my hands full with all of... this. Could you lend us a hand with a different task? MAISENTA: It’s much appreciated. I’d like you to pick up the conductor’s baton and the choir surplices we’ll need for the performance. MAISENTA: Beatin of the Carpenter’s Guild will have the first item, and Redolent Rose of the Weaver’s Guild will have the rest. MAISENTA: Afterwards, please take everything to Amh Garanjy in Mih Khetto’s Amphitheatre. She’ll know what to do. MAISENTA: In the meantime, we’ll have to rehearse for our performance. I can’t thank you enough!

LOCALIZATION Maisenta: Francel, might I be able to ask a favor of you? Two favors, actually. Maisenta: Keen as always! And I haven't even told you what the favors are yet! Maisenta: I need you to collect a conductor's baton from Beatin of the Carpenter's Guild, as well as an order of choir surplices from Redolent Rose over at the Weavers' Guild in Ul'dah. Maisenta: After paying a visit to these master artisans, head straight to Amh Garanjy in Mih Khetto's Amphitheatre. She will be expecting you. Maisenta: In the meantime, it seems prudent for us to rehearse away from prying...ears. Now, make haste, Francel!

→ If you are not a member of the Carpenter’s Guild...

ベアティヌ : 私に……なにか用ですか……？

BEATIN: ...What business do you have with me...?

LOCALIZATION Beatin: How might I help you?

→ If you are a member of the Carpenter’s Guild...

ベアティヌ : [PLAYER]さん…… どうしました……？先生に質問でもあるのですか……？

BEATIN: [PLAYER]... What seems to be the matter? Have you some question for your Master Beatin...?

LOCALIZATION Beatin: So, [PLAYER], are you any closer to becoming one with the wood?

ベアティヌ : ああ……マイセンタさんから頼まれた、タクトですね……。もちろんできあがってますよ……。ベアティヌ : 本体は、なめらかなメープル材を使って…… 持ち手はコルクで、手になじみやすいように作っています……。美しい逸品に仕上がりましたよ……フフ、フフフ……。ベアティヌ : マイセンタさんは、金に糸目はつけないから、いい品をつくってほしいと注文してきました。ホムンクルスのことになると、ずいぶん熱心なようだ……。ベアティヌ : 私も気持ちはわかりますよ……。好きなものについては、こだわりが強くなるのも、当然のことです……フフフ……。

BEATIN: Ah, yes, of course... The conductor’s baton that Miss Maisenta requested. BEATIN: See here, the body of the baton is wrought from maple, whereas the handle is made of cork, allowing for a certain comfort of grip... A most beautiful piece, is it not...? Haha... hahaha.... BEATIN: Miss Maisenta asked for only the finest quality of craftsmanship, heedless of the expense involved. When it comes to her Homunculi, she becomes possessed of an ardent zeal unlike aught else... BEATIN: Ah, but I understand her passions... Men and women alike know no barriers when it comes to the obsessions of the heart. Is that not true of all things...? Hahaha...

LOCALIZATION Beatin: Ah, yes. I have the conductor's baton right here. Beatin: Since the guild seldom receives orders for such items, I thought it best to deal with this one personally. The maple gives it a certain degree of flexibility while the cork grip allows it to be held between thumb and index finger without fear of dropping it. Beatin: I am confident that Maisenta will appreciate the quality of the craftsmanship. While my services do not come cheap, she is sure to feel that her money was well spent. Beatin: And spend she did. In all honesty, a simple twig would probably suffice, but nothing is too good for her Homunculi. I must admit, I do not see the appeal in those preening pretty boys. The sigh of a saw on wood and the tap of a hammer on chisel are all the music I need.

→ If you are not a member of the Weaver’s Guild...

レドレント・ローズ : あら、私になにかご用？

REDOLENT ROSE: Yes? What do you want with little old me?

LOCALIZATION Redolent Rose: Oh, what's this? A customer? Or perhaps some lackey sent on an errand?

→ If you are a member of the Weaver’s Guild...

レドレント・ローズ : あら、[PLAYER]ちゃんじゃないの！今日はどうしたのかしら？

REDOLENT ROSE: Oh, goodness, if it isn’t [PLAYER]! Darling! What brought you here today?

LOCALIZATION Redolent Rose: Well, well. If it isn't [PLAYER]. I trust you have not been neglecting your needlework.

レドレント・ローズ : ああ、マイセンタちゃんから頼まれた、聖歌隊にふさわしい衣装ね！これから売り出そうと思ってた、可愛いのがあるのよぅ！レドレント・ローズ : ほら、これよこれ、持っていきなさい！ちょっと数が多いけど、黒兎堂に卸す分まで、ついでに持ってってちょうだいな！レドレント・ローズ : それにしても、やり手のマイセンタちゃんでも、あなたみたいな冒険者に仕事を頼むほど、追い込まれることもあるのねぇ。レドレント・ローズ : ふふっ、あんなにお固そうな子でも、好きな男のためには頑張っちゃうってことかしら。可愛いところあるじゃなーい！

REDOLENT ROSE: Oh, yes, the choir surplices that sweet Maisenta requested? Are they not the most adorable things you’ve ever seen? Darling, these are going to sell like chilled juice down at Vesper’s Bay. REDOLENT ROSE: There’s more of them here, too, if you don’t mind taking them off my hands. It’s a lot, I know, but the Weaver’s Guild is selling them to Black Rabbit Traders in bulk. I’m sure they’re planning to turn quite the profit at the Starlight Celebration. REDOLENT ROSE: But my, my, that Maisenta is a smooth little hustler, isn’t she? I never thought she’d have an adventurer like you running her errands! That girl can talk anyone into anything. REDOLENT ROSE: Oh, I don’t mean that in a bad way. She might know how to drive a hard bargain, but she’s soft when it comes to those boys she loves. Isn’t it absolutely darling to watch her doing her best? Tee hee!

LOCALIZATION Redolent Rose: The choir surplices? Not the most challenging request the guild has received, but a welcome change from all the plebeians asking us to add arse flaps to their culottes. Redolent Rose: Another pleasant surprise was the amount Maisenta was willing to pay for them. So generous was she that I thought it only fair to include a few more. Knowing her, she will find a way to pitch them to festival-goers, so any surplus surplices could be sold on for a profit. Redolent Rose: This could even mark the beginning of a very lucrative venture for Black Rabbit Traders and the Weavers' Guild. Redolent Rose: Our mutual acquaintance is undoubtedly counting the gil as we speak, so I suggest you deliver these garments to her posthaste. Best of luck with the Starlight Celebration!

TRANSLATOR’S NOTES Cute details for those of you who understand Japanese on, like, a weeaboo level (no shade, I’m also a weeb):

Maisenta refers to her Homunculi, generally, as “kono kotachi,” or “those children.” It’s more or less commonly understood that you refer to things that you are fond of — like pets, and cute animals, and people you think are endearingly childish — as “ko” in this way. To approximate this, I had Maisenta refer the Homunculi as “boys” (or, of course, her “boy band”) — you know, like they’re hot, but they’re naive, and she needs to keep them safe and watch out for them.

At one point, Maisenta mentions that the Homunculi are popular with the 婦女子 (fujoshi), or women, of Gridania. Note that this is not the term 腐女子 (also fujoshi), or rotten women, commonly used to denote fans of the boy’s love genre — 婦女子 is a term for women that is very slightly outdated, sort of like womenfolk. However, the two words are homonyms, and intentionally so, since the BL term is a pun on the older word. I’m honestly not here to suggest that BL fans exist in Eorzea, but I definitely laughed.

Maisenta really does call Augustiniel “Ogu,” or “Aug,” which is a bit of a rarity as I don’t normally see character names abbreviated in this way.

Beatin refers to himself as “sensei,” with the effect that he’s one of those mildly creepy teachers who kind of gives you the heebie-jeebies, but he’s well-meaning at heart and really just wants to help you learn. Maybe.

Redolent Rose really is that maidenish and cutesy in Japanese, and refers to basically everyone as “-chan,” so in an effort to approximate this I gave him a speech quirk of saying that everything is darling. Honestly, he really is pretty cute.

#maisenta #the homunculi #beatin #redolent rose

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striptaese · 7 years

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Yes, I guess I got attached to the veteran actors so don't watch them anymore but cantonese dramas were so good! I don't have a large social circle but I feel maybe shawols are low profile? Around my age at least, but okay since i usually fangirl internally lol. Ahh yes, our boys have a healthy relationship and it shows! That's one of the main reasons I stayed too. It honestly baffles me whenever I see people attacking SHINee but as long as they're happy, healthy and making music together -

I’m content with their position now. They’ve accomplished so many things (both group and individually) in 9 years; I’m proud to be a shawol

I usually watch my Cantonese dramas original as it is though because I do understand Cantonese to some extent. But the acting and editing is so much better than our local ones.

Yea that’s me too. I always fangirl internally so it is usually the posters I have in my room that gives me away. And when I do meet another shawol, like we’ve got to assess just how much of a fan they are before scaring them away with our enthusiasm hahahaha. I’m quite socially awkward too like once when I was in US studying for uni, I wore a jacket that was wrote ‘SHINee World’ on the back, and the girl seated behind me came to me and commented that she liked my jacket. I asked her if she was a fan too and she said ‘'yea, I really like their new hair colors!” (Onew was pink and Taemin was lilac at the time). And I literally just went “Me too.” and ended then conversation right there 😂😂😂. So… yea, the only shawols I really talk SHINee to in real life are the ones I’ve met from the airport or my best friend who I converted. Yea I’m proud to be a shawol too, not just because of SHINee but also because of the fandom. Like the fandom is so full of nice people. Of course there will be bad apples but the majority I have seen and interacted with are so!nice! The fact that this kind community gathered together because of the boys says a lot too.

The thing is a lot of times when people come for them it is all about the charts. As much as I’d like them to win more stuff because I think they truly deserve to, the charts are basically a popularity vote - not really a good scale of whether or not their songs and performances are good or not. And it’s not like they aren’t charting at all. They are known enough that their careers aren’t in any danger, and they are well-liked for both their music/performance, and their attitudes/personality in general census from the industry. Like were the haters so bothered by SHINee that they had to hate on them? We can just be happy by ourselves, it’s fine. I try to envision ‘SHINee World’ as really a world of our own. It doesn’t matter what others say, they aren’t part of our world. I’m so torn whether or not I want to buy his vlive package. I want to support him especially since he is one of my biases but I’m just-… very bitter about Jinki getting cut out. I think he’s doing pretty well on his drama though. I didn’t have high hopes for his acting since honestly he doesn’t have a very good acting history, but he is doing really well, he must have practiced a lot (like he always does for anything he ever does).

Oh? Did your friend go inside, or in the public area? I felt like there were more stuff to choose from online, but yea there were certain things that were only available in the stores. I’m quite surprised the turnout is going so slowly. I thought a lot more people would want to go, but I think the price is just too hefty especially if anyone doesn’t have a planned partner to share with. But at the same time I feel it’s fair since we can keep the stuff we buy so technically the tickets are free - except pretty much none of us would have bought so much from them in the first place.

#sg anon #i honestly already forgot what i ordered from shilla but as long as the tickets are firm well #replies

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lhs3020b · 7 years

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It’s been a long couple of weeks in British politics.

The current situation reminds me a lot of a quote from Ken Macleod - as I recall it was from The Sky Road and it was something to the effect of “It’s like entropy - nothing’s changed, but everything’s gone up a few levels, so the coming crash will be even worse.” (Don’t quote me on the exact phrasing there, but it was words to that effect.)

So, the House has hung. They’re still 8 votes short and everyone still hates them.

But, Mrs May still has the slenderest of toe-holds on power. The DUP apparently loathe Mr Corbyn even more than the Daily Mail does - apparently it’s the Northern Irish sectarian thing, or something. (Please don’t ask me to try to explain this stuff, because like most mainlanders, I find it utterly baffling. NI stuff really does feel like the politics of another planet.) As such it seems the DUP will do anything to prop the Tories up - plus, also, they managed to screw an extra billion pounds in taxpayers’ money out of Mrs May. Mrs May, incidentally, told a nurse during the campaign that there were “no magic money trees” from which public sector payrises could come. Apparently she thinks £100 million per DUP MP is more of a mundane sappling, then?

Parliament has hung, but as usual, the supposed ~180 “moderate” Tories are nowhere to be seen. These people could reign in the fanatics in the Europe Research Group, but they never actually show up to any fights, so the ERG lot always win by default. So as a result Mrs May lurches on in her role as the human-shaped glove-puppet of the ERG.

However, while the Tories have survived for now, they’re back into David Cameron mode. What I mean by that is, they manage to win individual battles, but they have no strategy to go with it, so each narrow victory leaves them in a more vulnerable position. Cameron was like this every day from 2010 to 2016, and of course it finally caught up with him on the morning of June the 23rd. (It’s just a real pity that his final disastrous bit of self-out-manouevring also took the entire country down as collateral damage.)

Basically, the country hates DUP-Deal. It has some of the worst polling figures I’ve ever seen associated with the Tory Party. Mrs May’s leader ratings are so far underwater that they’re on the seabed, leaking forlorn bubbles. And the opinion polls are now showing consistent Labour leads. (A case in point: YouGov’s panel is now retruning the highest Labour score since the panel’s creation: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9927 This is also notable as YouGov’s turnout model was one of the sole few that spotted the imminent hanging parliament prior to polling day.)

Also there’s public sector pay cap. Despite DUP-Deal, it’s still in effect. It hasn’t even been relaxed a little. There’s always money to prop up Tory careers, of course, but not a penny to help real people in the real world.

Oh yes and, rhetoric aside, austerity is still Very Much A Thing.

In addition, well, Grenfell Tower. The Government’s handling of the disaster was lazy, callous and useless. It’s re-inforced a (justified) perception of a toxic and aimless administration whose only interest is in self-promotion and which cares nothing for the public good of the country.

(Relatedly, I’ve found my own feelings have moved on. At first I had some sympathy for Mrs May as a human being - I got the sense that she was basically an introvert who was in over her head. I had no sympathy for her policies or the government she was leading, but there was a sense that perhaps the specific human being was caught in a tight spot. Now, however? Her behaviour has outed her as a truly-foul person, not just a bad leader. She’s arrogant, short-sighted, greedy and spiteful. When her fall arrives, I will enjoy it without qualms.)

While the opinion polls can be justifiably treated with some scepticism given past records, there are also indicators like this: the A Very Public Sociologist blog periodically tracks local by-election results - actual elections where actual voters cast real votes for actual candidates, not voodoo polling - and something grim seems to have happened to the Tory vote since June, namely a 20pt drop. If replicated at a general election - if! - not only do they lose power, then the Tories become the new Lib Dems. (Under our electoral system, ~22% of the vote might net you barely a couple of dozen seats, if even that many.)

Aaaah yes, and now we move onto the Lib Dems, whom I’m getting a little worried about.

It’s not attracting much press attention, but they appear to be about to crown Vince Cable as party leader - without an actual ballot. (So much for the “democrats” bit in the name, then.) During the Coalition years, Cable was a somewhat more sympathetic figure than Nick Clegg, and sometimes Cable did seem to have a bit of discomfort with some of the things the Coalition was doing. (Clegg never showed any hint of remorse - if you read the fine print, his apology was literally “Oh I’m sorry you thought I’d made a promise”, not “I’m sorry, I fucked up”.) But, throughout all of the work capability assessments, the grinding austerity, the push for random foreign wars, the bedroom tax, the tuition fees, apparently none of it was ever quite bad enough for Mr Cable to put supposed principle ahead of salary. So, I don’t trust him.

And now, from what I’m seeing in the LD blog-o-sphere, it appears that Mr Cable wants to put opposition to Brexit under the bus. (The new weasel words are apparently “extreme Brexit”, which is presumably somehow distinct from hard Brexit? Don’t ask me, I only live here.)

Apparently getting 7% of the vote in June was too popular, and the LDs would like to try for 0%.

If they do what they look like they’re about to, then they fully deserve what will happen. (Full disclosure: I voted LD in June, solely on the basis of opposition to Brexit. If they do what they’re threatening, then they’ve certainly lost my vote.)

Also, one has to wonder - have the LDs been looking at DUP-deal and thinking “Oooh, we missed out on a coalition there?” I mean, they have 12 MPs, so the maths works. The country would hate them, but it would land them five years of some ministerial salaries - Deputy Junior Undersecretary for Nothing Whatsoever in the Department of Aimless Nothing-burger-ness, or whatever. I’d genuinely thought they’d learned their lesson after 2015 and had changed for the better, but it appears the critics were right on the LDs.

But there’s a further worry. The LDs have 12 seats. If they implode, will they open the door to 12 new Tories? (That’s what their well-deserved implosion in 2015 did, after all.) If they blow themselves up on Brexit, will they hand Mrs May another barebones majority, say in a putative December election? Now there’s a nightmare scenario for you!

Oh yes, and then there’s the Labour Party. There are signs that they’re reverting to the pre-election factional infighting between Progress, Momentum and the various other hangers-on. I could write about this at length, but I’m just too fucking depressed by it :(

Let’s just say that this is the most vulnerable condition that the Tories have ever been in - one good push and this government could fall. And the best Labour can do? Squabble over factional ideologies that no-one outside the party cares about.

Meanwhile, there’s Brexit itself. The iceberg on the horizon, toward which the ship is sailing at ever-increasing speed.

Bizarrely, Leave!Twitter seems to be in a state of complete despair at the moment. Frankly this is baffling - they’re getting everything they want and nothing is stopping them, so why all the whining? But then, the Leave campaign and reality do have a bit of a strained relationship - £350 million for the NHS, anyone? - so maybe their state of persistent delusion is no real surprise.

Some Leavers have actually convinced themselves now that Brexit isn’t actually going to happen at all. For once, I’d be delighted if they were right, but I really can’t see how. I mean, the two main parties are Brexiteers, and it seems the LDs are trying to sneak into the Brexit Social Do via the back window, so who exactly is left to oppose it? The SNP and the Greens only have 36 MPs between them, after all, out of 650. They can’t stop anything the others all want.

In fairness, Labour’s position could still evolve on Brexit, I think. While their current position is rather incoherent, they have marketed themselves as more moderate than the Tories. And if the LDs implode, as they might, then that opens up some fresh space on the Left. If the Tories carry on getting worse - which they probably will - then paradoxically that makes it easier to move leftwards. Plus we now know from the election that an actual socialist platform isn’t any kind of electoral poison - in fact one took 40% of the vote, produced a net gain of dozens of seats and chased the Tories into minority - so that anti-left argument is null-and-void now.

But, the question is, will Labour’s position evolve? And how? Also, if they do go anti-Brexit, how do we actually stop it? What do we do, who do we talk to, what do we organise? These are all questions that need answering.

I’m not entirely convinced there’s much merit in a second referendum. It might just give BoJo another opportunity to preen in front of the cameras, and end up generating the same result. A better strategy would be to take it to the country in a general election, on an explicitly anti-Article 50 platform.

Cancelling Article 50 would (in my opinion) would require direct democratic intervention of some sort. Just doing it by political fiat would cause the mother of all storms - frankly, Leavers would have a legitimate complaint there, and whatever the actual merits, it would look like the paragon of all corrupt backroom fix-ups. I mean yes, constitutionally, no parliament can bind the hands of its successor and no act of parliament is so magically-special that they can’t be repealed and in theory referendums are only advisory - but legal niceties don’t mean that it’s practically-possible to just waive inconvenient realities away.

Plus just randomly-cancelling A50 would have one very obvious side-effect: it would bring UKIP back from its deathbed. And the last thing anyone in their right mind wants is to have to go through all this nightmare again, in 5-10 years’ time!

It was a lack of effective democracy that got us into this mess, in my view - that’s why “Take Back Control” had so much emotional resonance! It also means that any solution to this disaster has to be democratic in character.

#UK internal politics #Diary of a disaster #A quick summary of the current mess #long post

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blogparadiseisland · 6 years

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Nature Everything You Need to Know for the Midterm Elections

Nature Everything You Need to Know for the Midterm Elections Nature Everything You Need to Know for the Midterm Elections http://www.nature-business.com/nature-everything-you-need-to-know-for-the-midterm-elections/

Nature

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Nature When are the midterms?

Nov. 6, 2018. Bring a friend.

days, hours, minutes and seconds left.

Nature What’s at stake in Washington?

435 U.S. House seats and 33 U.S. Senate seats.

Matters of interest include: which party controls the two chambers of Congress and has oversight power of President Trump and his administration. (Hint: Democrats will investigate far more aggressively than Republicans have, if given the chance.) Also, voters are generally eligible for those little “I Voted” stickers, which tend to be crowd pleasers.

Good to know: House seats are up every two years. But because senators serve six-year terms, which are staggered, 33 states have Senate races this fall.

Nature What about outside of Washington?

6,665 state positions and thousands more local ones.

Don’t forget the governorships, state legislative seats and scores of other nonfederal offices, down to the municipal level. Thirty-six states will elect governors this year.

Nature Who’s going to win the House?

Definitely the Democrats.Definitely the Democrats.Or the Republicans.Or the Republicans.Definitely one of those.

There has been talk of a so-called blue wave lifting Democrats to majorities in the House and Senate. And there are credible signs that Democrats are intensely energized this year. But a strong economy and protectiveness of President Trump will motivate plenty of Republicans. So there’s no guarantee which party will win big — there are just too many tight races. Take a spin through these poll results, and see for yourself.

Nature If Democrats take the House, what happens?

Politically: investigations, lectern-pounding, maybe impeachment proceedings. Legislatively: probably next to nothing, with a return to divided government. Which Democrats would consider a significant upgrade.

Nature If Republicans keep the House, what happens?

Politically: more one-party rule in Washington, perhaps an even more emboldened Mr. Trump, almost certainly no impeachment. Legislatively: more deregulation, maybe more tax cuts, maybe another run at repealing the Affordable Care Act.

Nature How many House seats do Democrats need to pick up to take over the House?

Nature How do they get there?

Start with many of the 23 Republican-held seats in districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016.

But Democrats see plausible openings in dozens of districts, from diverse metro areas and suburbs — where many college-educated voters think little of Mr. Trump — to some rural seats. Here, we created a field guide to the main battlefields for control of the House.

Nature How many Americans live in competitive congressional districts?

More than 50 million or so.

There are about 75 competitive races out of 435 House seats. Districts are each intended to have about 700,000 people. So that gives us more than 50 million in competitive districts.

Nature Which states have the most competitive House races?

These 30.

There are consequential races all over: California, the northeast (Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey), the Midwest (Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota), even traditional Republican strongholds like Texas. We’re keeping track of the tightest ones.

Nature Does my vote matter?

Yes.

I mean, sure, it is unlikely that your vote will be the literal tiebreaker in a given election. But this is not impossible! And the whole exercise can be civically meaningful even in races decided by more than one vote.

Plus, midterm turnout generally lags well behind presidential year turnout. So it’s a great opportunity for contrarians to undercut statistical expectations, if that’s your thing.

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Nature Can I vote early?

Depends on where you live. Early voting has already started in some states. Here’s a good roundup.

Nature How late can I register? Where do I vote?

Rules vary by state. This page is a useful guide.

Nature Will my vote be safe?

Probably. Maybe.

But really: There are serious questions about protecting the integrity of the vote — and the election process. And, as ever, the White House has been a wild card. Mr. Trump, who has often questioned the intelligence community’s consensus on Russian interference in 2016, has signed an executive order to punish foreign meddling, but lawmakers in both parties have been pushing for something more aggressive.

We broke down what we know about the Russia story for you here and here.

Nature What role is social media playing in the midterms?

A large one.

The prominence of platforms like Facebook, Twitter and Snapchat is nothing new for campaigns, but never before have politicians had more options to circumvent traditional media. One critical example: Candidates are aiming to produce the next viral video as a proxy for pricey television commercials, and often sharing the message largely through social media.

Nature What is Facebook doing differently?

Between expansive data leaks and (actual) fake news, in 2016 and since, it has not been a great run for Facebook. Besides the ubiquitous ads vaguely apologizing, the company has said it is on the case, on both fronts, but already the threat of influence on campaigns has proved very real in 2018.

The company has cited outside attempts to affect the midterms, with tactics that bear a strong resemblance to the Russians’ in 2016. One of many challenges for Facebook, as my colleague Kevin Roose wrote recently, is “to separate the ordinary rants and raves of legitimate users from coordinated, possibly state-backed attempts to sway public opinion.”

Nature How does the special counsel investigation affect the midterms?

Hard to say.

Many Democratic candidates have largely avoided the Russia affair to date, preferring to talk about domestic issues. But Nov. 6 is still a long way off, in political terms, and a major breakthrough in the investigation led by the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III (or other inquiries into the president and those close to him), could become an “October surprise.”

Nature What kinds of policy discussions have dominated races?

Healthcare is universally a biggie, often with debates on two tracks: between Democrats and Republicans on the merits of the Affordable Care Act (still) and between Democrats and Democrats on whether Medicare for all is the long-term answer. Others: immigration, education, gun control.

Nature Do Democrats have a chance to take the Senate, too?

Sure, but the road is long.

Ten Democrats are up for re-election in states that Mr. Trump won in 2016, several of which he won bigly. By contrast, Democrats have a realistic chance to gain seats in only a few states, so their margin for error is close to zero, with Republicans already holding a slim majority.

Nature Which Republican-held seats must the Democrats win to have any shot at capturing the Senate?

Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee.

Texas is also on the radar, with Representative Beto O’Rourke running a strong race against Senator Ted Cruz, the man Democrats love to really, really not love.

Nature If the House and Senate split, what are the odds of any major legislation getting passed for two years?

Nature What sort of Republican candidates made it through the primaries?

The ones who seemed the most like Mr. Trump.

They did quite well in Republican primaries, often with an endorsement assist from the president himself.

primary candidates

endorsed by Trump won

primary candidates

endorsed by Trump won

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endorsed by Trump won

Subtlety has been rare, particularly in ads. In Florida, Ron DeSantis’s successful bid for the nomination for governor included a spot that found his young child wearing a “Make America Great Again” onesie. In another ad in Georgia, Brian Kemp, the Republican nominee for governor, sat in a truck he pledged to use “just in case I need to round up criminal illegals and take them home myself.” But do voters in a general election want more Trumpism? We’ll find out.

Nature Is it really the “Year of the Woman”?

Certainly looks that way.

A record 257 women are running for the House and Senate this fall, and more women have won House primaries than in any year in the nation’s history — 235.

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Women have also broken records in primaries for governor’s offices, and there are more woman vs. woman contests than ever before. And in many competitive races, women have emerged from crowded primary fields filled with men.

But despite a record number of female nominees, Congress remains a long way from achieving the gender breakdown of the country itself. Many of this year’s female nominees are running against men in competitive districts, or as long shots against male incumbents.

Nature What candidates are making Democrats excited?

The Democratic future appears to be young, progressive and racially diverse — from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the Democratic socialist who toppled a longtime House incumbent in a primary in New York; to Andrew Gillum, the Democratic nominee for governor in Florida; to Stacey Abrams, who is trying to become the nation’s first black female governor, in the Georgia race.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Stacey Abrams

Andrew Gillum

Nature What candidates are making Republicans excited?

Nature Who can make history this year?

Lots of folks.

Andrew Gillum would be the first African-American to lead his state.

Stacey Abrams would be the first African-American woman to lead any state.

In Tennessee, Representative Marsha Blackburn, the Republican nominee for an open Senate seat, could become the state’s first female senator.

In Vermont, Christine Hallquist, a Democrat, is the first transgender candidate ever to be nominated for governor by a major party.

Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, each seeking House seats, would be the first Muslim-American women in Congress.

Jared Polis of Colorado would become the first openly gay man to be elected governor.

Nature Have scandals affected the House outlook at all?

Well…

Two Republican congressmen from solidly red districts — Chris Collins of New York and Duncan Hunter of California — were indicted recently. Republicans, including the president, have expressed some worry about losing those seats now. Mr. Trump blamed Jeff Sessions, the attorney general, for the Justice Department’s decision to bring charges so close to November.

Chris Collins

Duncan Hunter

Nature Is it common for a president to defend those accused of crimes on political grounds?

Nature Which Washington power players stand to lose the most on Election Day?

If Democrats fail to win the House, it’s hard to imagine Nancy Pelosi holding on for long as the party’s leader in the chamber. If Republicans somehow lose the Senate, their majority leader, Mitch McConnell, will probably not love life back in the minority. Confirming another conservative Supreme Court justice, for instance, would be quite difficult without 50 Republican votes.

Nature Are there ballot measures worth watching?

Several!

Among them: A handful of conservative states — Utah, Nebraska, Idaho — will consider proposals to expand Medicaid, with supporters hoping to outflank conservative lawmakers who have blocked the efforts legislatively. Some Western states have ballot initiatives involving energy pricing — including one in California about the state gas tax and another in Washington State on carbon emissions. And in Florida, a closely watched measure would re-establish voting rights for convicted felons who have served their time.

Nature Are the midterms just a referendum on Mr. Trump?

Largely, but not exclusively.

Local issues always matter, sometimes quite a bit. And policies from the Republican Congress — like the tax overhaul and the push for health care repeal — might be powerful motivators for many voters, for reasons that have little to do with Mr. Trump alone.

Nature Is Mr. Trump a boon or a liability for Republican candidates?

It’s like the real estate market: all about location, location, location.

Generally, the president is useful where he’s popular and less useful where he’s not. (Stunning, yes.) But many Republicans all over the map are welcoming his help. In 2016, Mr. Trump mocked Ted Cruz’s wife, his father and his faith.

Now Mr. Cruz, facing a tough re-election, plans to have Mr. Trump headline a rally in Texas.

Nature Can I trust the polls?

Yes and no!

Generally, polls are more revealing about the electorate and issues than highly accurate predictors for Election Day. This year, many projections suggest that Democrats have a better than 50-50 chance of taking back the House. And no one is saying it’s a sure thing. Here at The New York Times, the Upshot’s live polling project is a great example of both compelling data and radical candor about what we do not (and cannot) know for certain.

Nature O.K., the midterms end and then what?

Joy, relief, despair. And the 2020 presidential campaign basically starts immediately.

days, hours, minutes and seconds left.

Graphics by Sarah Almukhtar. Russian translation by Yuliya Parshina-Kottas.

Sources: United States Elections Project (voter turnout); Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University (female primary winners); Cook Political Report (states to watch).

Read More | https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/02/us/politics/2018-midterm-election-guide.html | Matt Flegenheimer, Grant Gold, Umi Syam

Nature Everything You Need to Know for the Midterm Elections, in 2018-10-07 01:39:59

#Nature of Business in the Current Market

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blogcompetnetall · 6 years

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Nature Everything You Need to Know for the Midterm Elections

Nature

Instructions for using this form

To reveal the answer, click on the question marked with an arrow

Arrow

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Expand All

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Nature When are the midterms?

Nov. 6, 2018. Bring a friend.

days, hours, minutes and seconds left.

Nature What’s at stake in Washington?

435 U.S. House seats and 33 U.S. Senate seats.

Good to know: House seats are up every two years. But because senators serve six-year terms, which are staggered, 33 states have Senate races this fall.

Nature What about outside of Washington?

6,665 state positions and thousands more local ones.

Don’t forget the governorships, state legislative seats and scores of other nonfederal offices, down to the municipal level. Thirty-six states will elect governors this year.

Nature Who’s going to win the House?

Definitely the Democrats.Definitely the Democrats.Or the Republicans.Or the Republicans.Definitely one of those.

Nature If Democrats take the House, what happens?

Nature If Republicans keep the House, what happens?

Nature How many House seats do Democrats need to pick up to take over the House?

Nature How do they get there?

Start with many of the 23 Republican-held seats in districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016.

Nature How many Americans live in competitive congressional districts?

More than 50 million or so.

There are about 75 competitive races out of 435 House seats. Districts are each intended to have about 700,000 people. So that gives us more than 50 million in competitive districts.

Nature Which states have the most competitive House races?

These 30.

Nature Does my vote matter?

Yes.

Plus, midterm turnout generally lags well behind presidential year turnout. So it’s a great opportunity for contrarians to undercut statistical expectations, if that’s your thing.

60%

presidential

year turnout

1950

2016

60%

presidential

year turnout

1950

2016

60%

presidential

year turnout

1950

2016

Nature Can I vote early?

Depends on where you live. Early voting has already started in some states. Here’s a good roundup.

Nature How late can I register? Where do I vote?

Rules vary by state. This page is a useful guide.

Nature Will my vote be safe?

Probably. Maybe.

We broke down what we know about the Russia story for you here and here.

Nature What role is social media playing in the midterms?

A large one.

Nature What is Facebook doing differently?

Nature How does the special counsel investigation affect the midterms?

Hard to say.

Nature What kinds of policy discussions have dominated races?

Nature Do Democrats have a chance to take the Senate, too?

Sure, but the road is long.

Nature Which Republican-held seats must the Democrats win to have any shot at capturing the Senate?

Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee.

Texas is also on the radar, with Representative Beto O’Rourke running a strong race against Senator Ted Cruz, the man Democrats love to really, really not love.

Nature If the House and Senate split, what are the odds of any major legislation getting passed for two years?

Nature What sort of Republican candidates made it through the primaries?

The ones who seemed the most like Mr. Trump.

They did quite well in Republican primaries, often with an endorsement assist from the president himself.

primary candidates

endorsed by Trump won

primary candidates

endorsed by Trump won

primary candidates

endorsed by Trump won

Nature Is it really the “Year of the Woman”?

Certainly looks that way.

A record 257 women are running for the House and Senate this fall, and more women have won House primaries than in any year in the nation’s history — 235.

235

women won House

primaries in 2018

1970

2018

235

women won House

primaries in 2018

1950

2018

235

women won House

primaries in 2018

1950

2018

Nature What candidates are making Democrats excited?

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Stacey Abrams

Andrew Gillum

Nature What candidates are making Republicans excited?

Nature Who can make history this year?

Lots of folks.

Andrew Gillum would be the first African-American to lead his state.

Stacey Abrams would be the first African-American woman to lead any state.

In Tennessee, Representative Marsha Blackburn, the Republican nominee for an open Senate seat, could become the state’s first female senator.

In Vermont, Christine Hallquist, a Democrat, is the first transgender candidate ever to be nominated for governor by a major party.

Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, each seeking House seats, would be the first Muslim-American women in Congress.

Jared Polis of Colorado would become the first openly gay man to be elected governor.

Nature Have scandals affected the House outlook at all?

Well…

Chris Collins

Duncan Hunter

Nature Is it common for a president to defend those accused of crimes on political grounds?

Nature Which Washington power players stand to lose the most on Election Day?

Nature Are there ballot measures worth watching?

Several!

Nature Are the midterms just a referendum on Mr. Trump?

Largely, but not exclusively.

Nature Is Mr. Trump a boon or a liability for Republican candidates?

It’s like the real estate market: all about location, location, location.

Now Mr. Cruz, facing a tough re-election, plans to have Mr. Trump headline a rally in Texas.

Nature Can I trust the polls?

Yes and no!

Nature O.K., the midterms end and then what?

Joy, relief, despair. And the 2020 presidential campaign basically starts immediately.

days, hours, minutes and seconds left.

Graphics by Sarah Almukhtar. Russian translation by Yuliya Parshina-Kottas.

Sources: United States Elections Project (voter turnout); Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University (female primary winners); Cook Political Report (states to watch).

Read More | https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/02/us/politics/2018-midterm-election-guide.html | Matt Flegenheimer, Grant Gold, Umi Syam

Nature Everything You Need to Know for the Midterm Elections, in 2018-10-07 01:39:59

#Nature of Business in the Current Market

0 notes

computacionalblog · 6 years

Text

Nature Everything You Need to Know for the Midterm Elections

Nature

Instructions for using this form

To reveal the answer, click on the question marked with an arrow

Arrow

Asset 2

Expand All

Collapse All

Nature When are the midterms?

Nov. 6, 2018. Bring a friend.

days, hours, minutes and seconds left.

Nature What’s at stake in Washington?

435 U.S. House seats and 33 U.S. Senate seats.

Good to know: House seats are up every two years. But because senators serve six-year terms, which are staggered, 33 states have Senate races this fall.

Nature What about outside of Washington?

6,665 state positions and thousands more local ones.

Don’t forget the governorships, state legislative seats and scores of other nonfederal offices, down to the municipal level. Thirty-six states will elect governors this year.

Nature Who’s going to win the House?

Definitely the Democrats.Definitely the Democrats.Or the Republicans.Or the Republicans.Definitely one of those.

Nature If Democrats take the House, what happens?

Nature If Republicans keep the House, what happens?

Nature How many House seats do Democrats need to pick up to take over the House?

Nature How do they get there?

Start with many of the 23 Republican-held seats in districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016.

Nature How many Americans live in competitive congressional districts?

More than 50 million or so.

There are about 75 competitive races out of 435 House seats. Districts are each intended to have about 700,000 people. So that gives us more than 50 million in competitive districts.

Nature Which states have the most competitive House races?

These 30.

Nature Does my vote matter?

Yes.

Plus, midterm turnout generally lags well behind presidential year turnout. So it’s a great opportunity for contrarians to undercut statistical expectations, if that’s your thing.

60%

presidential

year turnout

1950

2016

60%

presidential

year turnout

1950

2016

60%

presidential

year turnout

1950

2016

Nature Can I vote early?

Depends on where you live. Early voting has already started in some states. Here’s a good roundup.

Nature How late can I register? Where do I vote?

Rules vary by state. This page is a useful guide.

Nature Will my vote be safe?

Probably. Maybe.

We broke down what we know about the Russia story for you here and here.

Nature What role is social media playing in the midterms?

A large one.

Nature What is Facebook doing differently?

Nature How does the special counsel investigation affect the midterms?

Hard to say.

Nature What kinds of policy discussions have dominated races?

Nature Do Democrats have a chance to take the Senate, too?

Sure, but the road is long.

Nature Which Republican-held seats must the Democrats win to have any shot at capturing the Senate?

Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee.

Texas is also on the radar, with Representative Beto O’Rourke running a strong race against Senator Ted Cruz, the man Democrats love to really, really not love.

Nature If the House and Senate split, what are the odds of any major legislation getting passed for two years?

Nature What sort of Republican candidates made it through the primaries?

The ones who seemed the most like Mr. Trump.

They did quite well in Republican primaries, often with an endorsement assist from the president himself.

primary candidates

endorsed by Trump won

primary candidates

endorsed by Trump won

primary candidates

endorsed by Trump won

Nature Is it really the “Year of the Woman”?

Certainly looks that way.

A record 257 women are running for the House and Senate this fall, and more women have won House primaries than in any year in the nation’s history — 235.

235

women won House

primaries in 2018

1970

2018

235

women won House

primaries in 2018

1950

2018

235

women won House

primaries in 2018

1950

2018

Nature What candidates are making Democrats excited?

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Stacey Abrams

Andrew Gillum

Nature What candidates are making Republicans excited?

Nature Who can make history this year?

Lots of folks.

Andrew Gillum would be the first African-American to lead his state.

Stacey Abrams would be the first African-American woman to lead any state.

In Tennessee, Representative Marsha Blackburn, the Republican nominee for an open Senate seat, could become the state’s first female senator.

In Vermont, Christine Hallquist, a Democrat, is the first transgender candidate ever to be nominated for governor by a major party.

Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, each seeking House seats, would be the first Muslim-American women in Congress.

Jared Polis of Colorado would become the first openly gay man to be elected governor.

Nature Have scandals affected the House outlook at all?

Well…

Chris Collins

Duncan Hunter

Nature Is it common for a president to defend those accused of crimes on political grounds?

Nature Which Washington power players stand to lose the most on Election Day?

Nature Are there ballot measures worth watching?

Several!

Nature Are the midterms just a referendum on Mr. Trump?

Largely, but not exclusively.

Nature Is Mr. Trump a boon or a liability for Republican candidates?

It’s like the real estate market: all about location, location, location.

Now Mr. Cruz, facing a tough re-election, plans to have Mr. Trump headline a rally in Texas.

Nature Can I trust the polls?

Yes and no!

Nature O.K., the midterms end and then what?

Joy, relief, despair. And the 2020 presidential campaign basically starts immediately.

days, hours, minutes and seconds left.

Graphics by Sarah Almukhtar. Russian translation by Yuliya Parshina-Kottas.

Sources: United States Elections Project (voter turnout); Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University (female primary winners); Cook Political Report (states to watch).

Read More | https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/02/us/politics/2018-midterm-election-guide.html | Matt Flegenheimer, Grant Gold, Umi Syam

Nature Everything You Need to Know for the Midterm Elections, in 2018-10-07 01:39:59

#Nature of Business in the Current Market

0 notes

internetbasic9 · 6 years

Text

Nature Everything You Need to Know for the Midterm Elections

Nature Everything You Need to Know for the Midterm Elections Nature Everything You Need to Know for the Midterm Elections https://ift.tt/2ObHrLk

Nature

Instructions for using this form

To reveal the answer, click on the question marked with an arrow

Arrow

Asset 2

Expand All

Collapse All

Nature When are the midterms?

Nov. 6, 2018. Bring a friend.

days, hours, minutes and seconds left.

Nature What’s at stake in Washington?

435 U.S. House seats and 33 U.S. Senate seats.

Good to know: House seats are up every two years. But because senators serve six-year terms, which are staggered, 33 states have Senate races this fall.

Nature What about outside of Washington?

6,665 state positions and thousands more local ones.

Don’t forget the governorships, state legislative seats and scores of other nonfederal offices, down to the municipal level. Thirty-six states will elect governors this year.

Nature Who’s going to win the House?

Definitely the Democrats.Definitely the Democrats.Or the Republicans.Or the Republicans.Definitely one of those.

Nature If Democrats take the House, what happens?

Nature If Republicans keep the House, what happens?

Nature How many House seats do Democrats need to pick up to take over the House?

Nature How do they get there?

Start with many of the 23 Republican-held seats in districts that Hillary Clinton won in 2016.

Nature How many Americans live in competitive congressional districts?

More than 50 million or so.

There are about 75 competitive races out of 435 House seats. Districts are each intended to have about 700,000 people. So that gives us more than 50 million in competitive districts.

Nature Which states have the most competitive House races?

These 30.

Nature Does my vote matter?

Yes.

Plus, midterm turnout generally lags well behind presidential year turnout. So it’s a great opportunity for contrarians to undercut statistical expectations, if that’s your thing.

60%

presidential

year turnout

1950

2016

60%

presidential

year turnout

1950

2016

60%

presidential

year turnout

1950

2016

Nature Can I vote early?

Depends on where you live. Early voting has already started in some states. Here’s a good roundup.

Nature How late can I register? Where do I vote?

Rules vary by state. This page is a useful guide.

Nature Will my vote be safe?

Probably. Maybe.

We broke down what we know about the Russia story for you here and here.

Nature What role is social media playing in the midterms?

A large one.

Nature What is Facebook doing differently?

Nature How does the special counsel investigation affect the midterms?

Hard to say.

Nature What kinds of policy discussions have dominated races?

Nature Do Democrats have a chance to take the Senate, too?

Sure, but the road is long.

Nature Which Republican-held seats must the Democrats win to have any shot at capturing the Senate?

Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee.

Texas is also on the radar, with Representative Beto O’Rourke running a strong race against Senator Ted Cruz, the man Democrats love to really, really not love.

Nature If the House and Senate split, what are the odds of any major legislation getting passed for two years?

Nature What sort of Republican candidates made it through the primaries?

The ones who seemed the most like Mr. Trump.

They did quite well in Republican primaries, often with an endorsement assist from the president himself.

primary candidates

endorsed by Trump won

primary candidates

endorsed by Trump won

primary candidates

endorsed by Trump won

Nature Is it really the “Year of the Woman”?

Certainly looks that way.

A record 257 women are running for the House and Senate this fall, and more women have won House primaries than in any year in the nation’s history — 235.

235

women won House

primaries in 2018

1970

2018

235

women won House

primaries in 2018

1950

2018

235

women won House

primaries in 2018

1950

2018

Nature What candidates are making Democrats excited?

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Stacey Abrams

Andrew Gillum

Nature What candidates are making Republicans excited?

Nature Who can make history this year?

Lots of folks.

Andrew Gillum would be the first African-American to lead his state.

Stacey Abrams would be the first African-American woman to lead any state.

In Tennessee, Representative Marsha Blackburn, the Republican nominee for an open Senate seat, could become the state’s first female senator.

In Vermont, Christine Hallquist, a Democrat, is the first transgender candidate ever to be nominated for governor by a major party.

Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, each seeking House seats, would be the first Muslim-American women in Congress.

Jared Polis of Colorado would become the first openly gay man to be elected governor.

Nature Have scandals affected the House outlook at all?

Well…

Chris Collins

Duncan Hunter

Nature Is it common for a president to defend those accused of crimes on political grounds?

Nature Which Washington power players stand to lose the most on Election Day?

Nature Are there ballot measures worth watching?

Several!

Nature Are the midterms just a referendum on Mr. Trump?

Largely, but not exclusively.

Nature Is Mr. Trump a boon or a liability for Republican candidates?

It’s like the real estate market: all about location, location, location.

Now Mr. Cruz, facing a tough re-election, plans to have Mr. Trump headline a rally in Texas.

Nature Can I trust the polls?

Yes and no!

Nature O.K., the midterms end and then what?

Joy, relief, despair. And the 2020 presidential campaign basically starts immediately.

days, hours, minutes and seconds left.

Graphics by Sarah Almukhtar. Russian translation by Yuliya Parshina-Kottas.

Sources: United States Elections Project (voter turnout); Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University (female primary winners); Cook Political Report (states to watch).

Read More | https://ift.tt/2y66DI8 | Matt Flegenheimer, Grant Gold, Umi Syam

Nature Everything You Need to Know for the Midterm Elections, in 2018-10-07 01:39:59

#Nature of Business in the Current Market

0 notes

theliberaltony · 6 years

Link

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

You probably know Alabama’s new senator, Doug Jones, because he narrowly won a special election last year against a man accused of molesting underage girls. But there are probably quite a few things you don’t know about him. His first name is actually Gordon, and he is left-handed,1 hitches his head a bit when he’s making a point and is what experts on emotions might call an “active listener.”

That last point dawned on me while I was sitting in the back of an SUV as he praised the virtues of the peanut butter factory we’d just been to — “the technology!” — and we jostled along a central Alabama road on a late May afternoon. Throughout a sweaty, hair-netted tour, he had nodded and peered into things and patiently asked questions. (I, meanwhile, had strained to hear over the nut-rumbling din and contemplated a literal death by peanut butter underneath some sort of hot, belching still that smelled unnervingly like cookies.) The visit was a reminder of just how much the life of a politician is filled with interactions that are mundane for him but momentous for the other person; the conscientious officeholder knows that a bit of attentive listening can go a long way. That’s perhaps doubly the case for Jones, an Alabama Democrat wading through his state’s overwhelmingly Republican politics. Sometimes, he might not agree with what people have to say to him, but, by God, Jones will smile, nod and hear them out.

There are some exceptions, of course. We drove by a yard overflowing with tchotchkes and an unmistakable sign of the South. “I would probably not stop right there at the house with the Confederate flags waving,” Jones conceded in a creaky drawl that’s faintly reminiscent of another southern Democrat, Bill Clinton. “Probably not much point of me going there.”

Jones is the first Alabama Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate since 1992 (and that guy later became a Republican).2 His election in December 2017 came in no small part because of the strength of the black community’s vote. Black voters made up 29 percent of the electorate in the 2017 Alabama Senate race, matching their turnout for Barack Obama’s historic 2008 election (notable enthusiasm for a special election in an off-cycle year), with 98 percent of black women — who made up 17 percent of the electorate — voting for Jones. Jones also won independents and made inroads with liberal and moderate Republicans, groups that Obama performed poorly among.3 Jones’s coalition is disparate, to say the least.

Jones is a Democrat and a Democrat with pretty standard Democratic positions — he’s pro-abortion rights, for gay rights and the Affordable Care Act, and supports protections for illegal immigrants who arrived in the country as minors. But in tone and style he’s a moderate, and a moderate so convinced of the power of his moderation that he says his candidacy was actually hurt, not helped, by the molestation accusations against Roy Moore, his Republican rival. “We would have won by a larger percentage had those allegations not come out,” he told me. “Once those allegations surfaced, the level of interest increased, and the race became very tribal.” (Before the Moore allegations were reported by The Washington Post on Nov. 9, 2017, the race had been holding steady, with Jones at 42 percent and Moore at 48 percent, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. Three days after the allegations became public, it was a 2-point race.)

But two years away from standing for re-election, Jones is faced with the reality of what it means to govern as a Democrat in a blood-red state in a country divided by tribal politics. President Trump won Alabama with 62 percent of the vote, and Jones’s tenuous coalition rests not only on the support of the black community, but also on those independents and Republicans — many of whom are white in a state still riven by racial tensions.

And that’s meant that Jones has had to become a culture warrior of a different sort, preaching peace, love and understanding to both his liberal base and his more circumspect constituents unused to voting for a Democrat. Call it the gospel of moderation. In today’s politics, a certain temperament is required to be a part of the center that’s barely holding. Most people would tire of centrist sermonizing and turning the other cheek, but Doug Jones swears by it. His re-election rests on whether Alabamians buy in.

Much of Jones’s time is spent toggling between Alabama constituencies. He assures some that their interests will receive the attention they’ve long gone without. With others, he’s feeling out how far he can push a Democrat’s agenda before turning them off. But with everyone, he’s preaching the power of forbearance.

That’s why on an evening in late May, Jones got up to address a crowd gathered for a public health fair in Lowndes County, a place where he won 79 percent of the vote, and apologized.

“At the end of the day, we’re all to blame, somehow, some way — we’ve all neglected this area,” he said. The statement could have covered any number of slights. Lowndes is part of what’s known as the Black Belt, a rural strip that stretches across the state and is known for its rich farming soil and its large population of African-Americans. It also has a public health crisis: Many residents don’t have proper sanitation systems.

“I literally had déjà vu the first time I stepped out of the van in one of these situations because it had the smell and the heat and the humidity — it was just like being in rural Vietnam or Cambodia or Haiti,” said Mark Elliot, who’s an engineering professor at the University of Alabama and has researched drinking water and sanitation issues in developing countries. The region’s clay soil can make septic tanks — which many residents of the impoverished area can’t afford to begin with — ineffective. Some people install straight pipes that send sewage directly into the ground only to have wastewater rise back up, puddling in yards.

Jones offered some extremely Jonesian advice to the assembled crowd to get state officials (implicitly he seemed to mean Republican officials) to respond to their needs. “Don’t argue, don’t get mad, don’t get angry, don’t shake your finger. Just say, ‘We need help,’” Jones said. “That’s the way we move forward.”

When I asked her if she was surprised to have a fellow Democrat in the congressional delegation, Rep. Terri Sewell turned to look directly at me. “I worked my ass off for this,” she said.

Jones is not an outsized personality, but he is a decent-sized one. A former federal prosecutor, he can talk, though not in an overly charming, anecdote-strewn way. It’s more that he just sort of says what he’s thinking into a microphone. It is this unassuming quality that dominates the Jones aura. He is not particularly tall, is neither skinny nor plump and has the balding pate of so many other 64-year-old men. He wears sensible shoes with support. Perhaps the one notable thing about his appearance is his pale blue eyes.

After the health fair, Jones and Rep. Terri Sewell, the only other Democratic member of Alabama’s congressional delegation and its sole black member, toured a National Park Service memorial to the 1965 Selma-to-Montgomery marches. Sewell and Jones are a practiced political duo — all chummy side hugs and comfortable banter.

When I asked her if she was surprised to have a fellow Democrat in the congressional delegation, Sewell turned to look directly at me. “I worked my ass off for this,” she said.

“I told him this could happen as long as we didn’t nationalize it — it came on the heels of the Ossoff election, and it was really important that we kept everything local.” (In one of the first special elections after the 2016 vote, Democrat Jon Ossoff lost what looked like a promising seat pick-up in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District after huge media and ad dollar attention to the race.) Jones tried to keep his distance from national figures and the media firestorm surrounding Moore — as much as was possible.

Jones’s real viability as a Democratic senatorial candidate was always going to inspire some excitement. In one recent year, the left-leaning parts of the Alabama electorate didn’t even have an official candidate: In 2014, Jeff Sessions — whose seat Jones now occupies — ran unopposed, receiving 97 percent of the vote. Jones, of course, benefited from a disillusioned moderate Republican electorate in his 2017 race and from the enthusiasm of Democrats who saw at long last a candidate who actually had a shot at winning. But Trump is still wildly popular in Alabama, and he’ll presumably be on the ballot in 2020, when Jones will be seeking re-election. “A lot of it has to do with suburban voters,” Giles Perkins, the 2017 campaign’s “Yoda” (in Jones’s words — “campaign chairman” in others’), told me about what the senator’s 2020 re-election prospects rested on. “We also have to grow our support in the more rural areas as we focus on rural hospitals and small banks and things that are essential to those communities.”

Turnout is always higher in presidential election years, and Jones will likely have to battle for his seat in front of an electorate filled with enthusiastic Trump voters who might want to vote a partisan ticket, aka anyone but Jones, the Democrat.

Jones’s appeal to black voters in Alabama remains key, and it might lie not just in his existence as an actual factual Democratic senator who got elected, but in his moderation. According to a 2017 Pew Research Center survey, the share of Democrats overall who identify as “liberal” has grown to 48 percent (up from 33 percent in 2008), but only 28 percent of black Democrats identify that way. A plurality of black Democrats, 40 percent, call themselves “moderate,” and 30 percent say they are “conservative.” Jones, for one, is well aware that he owes a huge debt of gratitude to the black voters of Alabama.

“I do think there is a sense of obligation for me to pay careful attention because they have been neglected, and I want to make sure that folks know that I appreciate their support and I want to be there for them,” he said. “I also want them to know that I’m talking about that message in other parts of the state.”

The next day, in another part of the state (one country over), at another rural health-care event, Jones was pitching himself to a very different crowd. It was a mostly white group that had gathered in a room at L.V. Stabler Memorial Hospital in Greenville, a small town in Butler County, where both Trump and Jones had won.

Statewide, Jones won independents, receiving 51 percent of their votes. Even though that’s a slim margin, his support among that group stands in striking difference to the 23 percent of independents that Obama won in 2012. Jones’s appeal to right-leaning voters who were turned off by Moore likely contributed to his victory. He also won 21 percent of moderate or liberal Republicans, while Obama won only 1 percent of those votes in Alabama in 2012.

But Terry Lathan, Alabama’s GOP chair, is skeptical of Jones’s chances, saying that many Republican voters stayed home because of Moore but won’t during a Trump year. “I can tell you the Republican Party and the activists are champing at the bit to get to him in 2020, and he’s got to know that,” she said. “You cannot play political middle of the road and not get run over. You’d better get on one side or the other.”

After a few minutes of remarks, during which Jones bemoaned that Alabama had “left a lot of dollars on the table” by not expanding Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, he took questions from the crowd. One came from a man in the back who introduced himself as “a local peanut man, barbecue man” and who wanted to know why the ACA was a good thing: “Because there’s a lot of people in our community who tell me it’s not.”

Southern politics have “always been a folksier, back-slapping good old boy kinda thing,” Jones said. “And I don’t mean that in a sexist way — I just mean it in a country way.”

It was the gracious version of a question that Jones will be asked again and again over the next two years. And he can be impatient with this GOP line. Jones told me that he’s sometimes frustrated by conservative Alabamians who want his help: “They see the federal government as not being good and don’t really fully appreciate the fact that their public officials need those federal dollars to help their roads, to help their schools, to help save their hospital.”

But Jones didn’t say that to the man in Greenville. Instead, he played the attentive listener, seemingly wanting to know how far to the left his constituents will allow him to go. “Let me qualify this because I don’t want you to think that I’m in favor of single payer like Bernie Sanders, but there is more and more talk about not single payer but a public option that people buy into,” Jones said. “I’m curious as to whether any of you have thoughts.”

People did. Some were open to the idea. Many talked about the high insurance deductibles people face under the current system — they can’t pay them. Dexter McLendon, the mayor of Greenville, a jowly man who wore cowboy boots with his suit and voiced some anti-ACA sentiments during the event, wrapped it up by delivering something of a locker-room pump-up speech: “We gonna sit down here and die and rot on the vine? I mean, I’m not!”

In the car, on our way to the event, I’d asked Jones about the way Southern politics is typically performed. “It’s always been a folksier, back-slapping good old boy kinda thing,” Jones said. “And I don’t mean that in a sexist way — I just mean it in a country way.” The Greenville mayor’s style was definitely channeling that legacy. But he seemed to like Jones, seemed to respect his game. “Let’s give him a hand,” he said, turning to the senator. “He and I don’t agree on everything, but he’s very nice to come.”

The Alabama touches in Jones’s Washington office are obvious. The senator’s preferred seat is a wicker rocking chair covered in white cushions, and the mantlepiece of the marble fireplace is bookended by two signed footballs, one emblazoned with the scarlet University of Alabama “A” (the senator’s alma mater) and the other with “Doug Jones U.S. Senate.”

The space is a visual reminder of how much Alabama and its buffeting political and cultural currents have shaped Jones. His political moderation might be strategically advantageous, but it also isn’t insincere. Jones and his politics are very much of a place and time.

In the center of the office mantlepiece is a picture of a young Jones leaning over to whisper in the ear of an older man at a microphone, Alabama Sen. Howell Heflin, a conservative Democrat who represented the state for 18 years. For a time, Jones served as a staff counsel for the senator. Heflin left the Senate in 1997 and was replaced by Sessions, meaning that Jones now occupies the seat of his former boss. (Perkins told me that Jones was originally considering a run for governor but that switched after a conversation in Perkins’s living room. “His heart had always been in the U.S. Senate,” he said.) Jones fondly recalled that he’d called Heflin during law school, asking if he could work for his campaign. The senator replied that he could if Jones raised enough money to pay for his salary. He did, getting the hang of fundraising calls from an early age.

Jones’s ideological evolution was gradual, although he was always interested in politics. “I don’t think there was an epiphany,” he said. “I didn’t consider myself a George McGovern liberal Democrat. I was not that anti-war at all — very socially conservative at the time.” He voted for Richard Nixon the first time he could cast a ballot but grew disillusioned by Watergate during college. He did field organizing in Alabama for Jimmy Carter’s 1976 campaign and then worked for Heflin. In 1988, when Joe Biden ran for president, Jones served as state co-chair for the campaign.

By that time, Jones was a successful lawyer, although he had yet to try the 16th Street Baptist Church bombing case, which received national attention for convictions of two KKK members for the decades-old crime that killed four young black girls in Birmingham. After he won the case, Jones considered running for the Senate. “People forget that I was going to do that in 2001,” he said. “I was coming off the church bombing case. It was Jeff Sessions’s first re-elect coming up — I really felt like there was an opportunity and so that summer after I left the U.S. attorney’s office, I started going around meeting folks, raising a little bit money, not a lot. And then 9/11 hit.” After that, Jones said, everything changed. It was too hard to run against an incumbent Republican in a deep-red state during the post-attack atmosphere. He’d wait another 16 years for a shot at the seat.

“I try to just hold my tongue and go off by myself and beat my head against a wall,” Jones said. “There has to be a certain element of discipline that comes with this job.”

Jones’s sense of history was on display during his maiden Senate speech in March, when he invoked something Heflin had written: “Compromise and negotiation — the hallmarks of moderation — aimed at achieving moderate, centrist policies for our country, should not be viewed as negatives.” Jones took to the floor to cite these words a month after the shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida. He spoke about the need for better gun regulations, called for senators to support his Democratic colleagues’ bills, but also said this:

“Frankly, I also enjoy guns. I enjoy shooting them. I like how they are made, their power, and their history. I own many of them, all stored in a locked gun safe that is, quite frankly, larger than what my wife initially approved a number of years ago. And collecting them and shooting them at the range or hunting is a bond I share with my son Christopher and many of my friends.”

Though the American South, especially in 2018, can be a much-maligned place in the eyes of many liberals, Doug Jones is a man of his culture. And he talks about it.

Jones certainly seems more at ease in Alabama. In D.C., he was still getting used to the senatorial pace of life, or, as he put it, “still drinking from the fire hose,” with constituent meetings and staff briefings done in “West Wing”–esque walk-and-talks on the way to committee votes. But back home, he was looser. After an evening event, he couldn’t wait to drive to an old Montgomery seafood place — “Jubilee! Jubilee! It’s Jubilee!” he shouted to members of his staff, jubilant that they had remembered the name of the restaurant after collectively blanking on it. In the car on our drive, he ribbed me about the state of football in my home state, Ohio (Jones is an SEC man through and through and has tickets to the Alabama games that entitle him to lockers in the stadium where he can store adult beverages of his choice to sip on, a nice perk, since alcohol sales are banned by the league), and proved most animated when talking about the history of Alabama politics, of which he seems to have an encyclopedic knowledge.

I asked him about segregation — Jones was born in 1954, the same year that Brown v. Board of Education officially ordered that U.S. schools be integrated.

“For me, segregation didn’t really mean anything,” Jones said of his early childhood. “It was just not something that as a child and growing up that you think about.” He acknowledged he grew up “fairly sheltered,” a white boy in an all-white neighborhood, though Jones said “it was not a hateful neighborhood — no one was out burning crosses.” Fairfield, a town outside Birmingham, where Jones grew up, is home to a U.S. Steel mill, where Jones’s father worked until he was 80 years old. I asked if his family had supported George Wallace, the Alabama governor who ran for president on a segregationist platform.

“Hell, everybody in Alabama supported George Wallace, sure!” Jones said. “Everybody was a Democrat too. The thing about the Democratic Party at the time — and I say this a lot when people say they want to bring the Democratic Party back — I say, ‘Hell no we don’t! Not the rooster!” A white rooster was the old symbol for the Alabama Democratic Party, and the logo was often accompanied by the slogan “white supremacy for the right.”

“I’ve tried to think back a lot to those days, and I remember some of the Wallace stuff. But in the back of my mind, there’s also something telling me that my dad was kinda a Ryan deGraffenried supporter,” Jones said. DeGraffenreid Sr., a candidate for governor, was a relative moderate by Alabama standards — meaning that he was still a segregationist — but he condemned Wallace’s inflammatory rhetoric. “I’ve never really talked to dad about that over the last few years,” Jones mused. “He might remember that — he’s got dementia, so you tend to remember things from far back.”

Jones’s long political memory is a reminder that while he is a new senator, he’s no political naif, but someone with a full life experience and a certain confidence in his decision making.

“He’s a good thinker,” Greg Hawley, Jones’s former law partner, told me. “I don’t think he’s what I would call a collaborative thinker. I think he internalizes a lot of things. He’s good at figuring out things on his own without a lot of input.”

Jones has had to think through some difficult decisions of late, particularly when it comes to Trump Cabinet appointments. He joined the majority of Democrats in voting against Gina Haspel to be director of the CIA but voted for Mike Pompeo’s nomination for secretary of state, one of only a handful of Democrats to do so, despite reservations about Pompeo’s history of anti-Muslim remarks and anti-gay rights policy stances. (Since taking office, Jones has voted in line with Trump’s position 56.3 percent of the time. The only Democratic senator who has voted with Trump more often is Joe Manchin of West Virginia.) Jones got pushback from some of his more liberal supporters for the Pompeo decision, including his son, Carson, who is gay.

“He expressed some disappointment in the vote, and I said, ‘I understand, I got it,’” Jones said.

In a highly partisan atmosphere, with the constant thrum of social media as background to nearly every political happening, it’s impossible not to get pushback on votes or public statements. I asked Jones, who seems preternaturally even-keeled, what does actually push his buttons.

“I’ll tell you what really gets me politically are the people who are disingenuous, who will pander, who are intellectually dishonest just to try to get a vote,” he said. “I try to just hold my tongue and go off by myself and beat my head against a wall. There has to be a certain element of discipline that comes with this job.”

It reminded me of some advice a friend had gotten from his father in moments of frustration: Measure your response by how it serves your goal, not by how it serves your fury. The newly elected senator from Alabama has lived long enough to know that immoderate fury does not serve the goal of the radical moderate.

“I guess I need to show you my picture,” Synethia Pettaway said to me, getting up from the dining-room table in her high-ceilinged, colonnaded home that, as she put it, “was not built for me to live in, but God saw fit for me to be able to purchase.” She meant a black woman wasn’t ever supposed to live in this pretty white house in Selma, Alabama.

She came back with a framed black-and-white photo showing five nuns in old-fashioned white wimples beaming down at a baby. There’s another person in the photo — Martin Luther King Jr. He’s looking at the baby, too, holding her hand.

“His birthday and my birthday are the same, so they wanted him to meet me because I was born on Jan. 15, 1965,” Pettaway said. “They say he told me I would be a civil righter, so I have been out there ever since.”

Pettaway is the head of the Democratic Party in Alabama’s Dallas County and one of a network of black political and civic leaders who helped mobilize voters for Jones. The county, which is 69.5 percent black, went for Jones with 75 percent of its vote. When Sessions ran uncontested in 2014, he received 4,825 votes and no write-in votes in the county. In 2017, Jones got 10,492 votes to Moore’s 3,485.

“The honeymoon’s going to be over next year — it’s over in 2019,” Sam Jones, the former mayor of Mobile, told me.

The black community of Alabama has for many years been underrepresented on the federal level, and its struggles for even a shot at equal representation are ignominious legend: police dogs, fire hoses and nightsticks. Pettaway is sanguine about Jones’s prospects for success — she wants to get things done, like getting funds for a better highway through the Black Belt — but she also cautions that Jones still needs to do work to build a deeper understanding of the black community. When F.D. Reese, one of Selma’s “Courageous Eight” who marched with Dr. King to register black voters, died in April, Pettaway said, Jones never reached out. Things like that would need to change going forward, she said. Still, Pettaway said, she’s one of Jones’s biggest proponents.

“The honeymoon’s going to be over next year — it’s over in 2019,” Sam Jones, the former mayor of Mobile, told me over the din of cocktail party chatter at the 100 Black Men of Greater Mobile gala, where Jones was delivering a keynote address. That’s when Jones would have to make real, serious decisions and be called more publicly to task. “I’d start planning for that right now,” the former mayor said.

For Pettaway, seeing the collective votes of black Alabamians put Jones into office was powerful — on election day, a video of a woman casting the first ballot of her lifetime went viral. In Pettaway’s eyes, the stakes of voting are too often obscured.

“People that you vote for determine where you’re born, how you’re born, who you’re born by,” she said. “They determine how you live, who you can marry and where you are married. When you die, they determine how you can be buried and where you can be buried. … They determine all of it. So voting is important.”

And Doug Jones needs to keep Synethia Pettaway’s vote.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Clare Malone

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alanafsmith · 6 years

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The law firms with the best social life 2017-18

Amish or Amal?

Corporate law and social life are not usually two things you would put together. Long hours, multiple deadlines and demanding partners can often leave little opportunity to unwind and kick back with colleagues.

But having questioned over 2,000 trainees and junior lawyers at the 60 leading corporate law firms about their downtime habits, we discovered it’s far from ‘all work and no play’. As part of our exclusive research, respondents were asked to rate their firm’s social life from one to ten, with one being “Amish” right through to the top rating of ten, “Amal”.

In alphabetical order, the firms that secured A* grades for social life in the Legal Cheek Trainee and Junior Lawyer Survey 2017-2018 are…

Baker McKenzie

Life post-ampersand appears to be going well for Baker McKenzie, which has secured an A* for social life for the second year running in our survey.

Located just off Fleet Street, the global outfit’s London office is a hive of activity, according to one trainee: “Lots of events, receptions, events and more events! If you want to live a social life only in the office it is entirely possible. However, please do make friends outside of the office now and again.” Another insider said: “There is always lots going on.” With another spy adding “we are all the best of friends”, we’re sure the Bakers bunch are chuffed with the firm’s impressive autumn retention score of 94%.

But one associate does claim that things “used to be better” on the social life front. That said, they’re still content to describe Baker’s social life as “good”, adding: “maybe I’ve just become rather boring since I qualified.”

Read Baker McKenzie’s full firm profile, including The Legal Cheek View and Insider Scorecard.

Bristows

The social scene at Bristows sounds buzzing. “There is a firm-wide drinks event on the last Friday of every month” and a “big all-out glitzy dinner dance in the spring and an autumn party following the AGM”, one rookie reveals.

Another lawyer tells us that as afternoon turns to evening many of Bristows’ trainees and associates will nip to “a local pub down the road” to unwind and catch up. The more sporting-minded lawyers at the intellectual property-focused practice are catered for too. One trainee says:

“There’s loads of sporting and charity events that get a very good turnout, including an annual cycle challenge which last year took participants from Brighton to London.”

And it would appear this vibrant social scene extends to the firm’s future trainees too. “We all get on so well as a year. The firm was great at getting us to meet with the partners and associates before we joined, having a couple of lunches during the GDL and LPC,” one Bristows source explains.

Read Bristows’ full firm profile, including The Legal Cheek View and Insider Scorecard.

Burges Salmon

Burges Salmon has scored well across the board in this year’s survey, earning A*s in four categories.

One of these is social life; thoroughly deserved if this trainee anecdote is anything to go by:

“The firm’s events are always really well done with good food, lots of alcohol and everyone gets involved — from a senior partner dressing as Mick Jagger to an NQ doing a James Bond tango with another partner.”

One Burges’ lawyer describes his colleagues as a “social bunch”, but does confess that it can differ from department to department. That said, “firm wide events” are a staple at Burges, which trumpeted a perfect 100% retention score (28 out of 28) earlier this year. The outfit’s social club has also been described at “very good”.

We wonder if Burges Salmon’s West Country location has aided its score in any way: Bristol has been voted Europe’s coolest city and is littered with legendary bars and pubs like The Apple and The Coronation Tap.

Read Burges Salmon’s full firm profile, including The Legal Cheek View and Insider Scorecard.

Forsters

Another firm praised for its social life in our survey is private client and real estate outfit Forsters.

Lawyers there work out of a grand Georgian terrace in well heeled Mayfair, a location described by one of its lawyers as “a great place to work”. Indeed, it’s just a stone’s throw from celebrity-filled clubs and bars including Annabel’s and May Fair Bar. If clubbing isn’t your thing, Mayfair’s top restaurant scene perhaps makes up for Forsters’ lack of a canteen: eateries including Hakkasan and Sexy Fish have fed the likes of Bella Hadid, Michael Cain, Chrissy Teigen and John Lennon, David Cameron and Noel Gallagher. It’s also very close to Hyde Park, which puts on events like Winter Wonderland and British Summer Time.

So given its lively location, it probably won’t come as a surprise that Forsters, which was founded in 1998 and pays £61,000 upon qualification, chalked up an A* for its social life. It’s also worth noting the firm takes on just nine trainees a year, which likely adds to the tight-knit social feel.

Read Forsters’ full firm profile, including The Legal Cheek View and Insider Scorecard.

Kirkland & Ellis

Work hard, play harder appears to be the ethos at Kirkland & Ellis.

The US firm’s London office is a “pretty liberal place”, says one insider, and “everyone is up for having fun” outside the swanky Gherkin office grind. After all, NQs at the firm are hardly short of cash to splash: they are paid an eye-watering £140,000 a year.

Kirkland’s bashes are the stuff of legend, according to the firm’s lawyers. Party locations include five-star hotels like the Savoy and St Pancras Renaissance. Top restaurants like Coq d’Argent and Yauatcha also get a name check, while Kirkland’s lot has also been living it up outside of London in the Four Seasons in Hampshire, a manor house that has its own spa. “Literally no expense spared as a reward for how hard everyone works,” one rookie reveals. Another anonymous respondent adds:

“There are a few office wide events every year and they are absolutely insane. The regular social scene is pretty limited but closing lunches and ad hoc drinks often end up being huge.”

Read Kirkland & Ellis’ full firm profile, including The Legal Cheek View and Insider Scorecard.

Osborne Clarke

“There is often something going on, whether it is sport, client events, team or departmental drinks,” says one Osborne Clarke lawyer. The firm doesn’t just throw “great summer and Christmas parties”, but treats its lawyers to “lots of spontaneous social events and planned socials”.

The glue that holds these events together is surely the amiable relationship between OC staff. “[We] are all really good friends and regularly hang out outside of work,” one survey respondent said. Another insider reports that the tech-savvy outfit “tends to hire similar people, and so everyone gets on very well.”

Perhaps this buoyant social scene is helped along by high spirits in the firm. For one, it’s had a string of recent strong retention performances. Earlier this year, Osborne Clarke chalked up impressive scores of 82% (14 out of 17) and 100% (six out of six). Revenue is up too, having risen from £205.9 million to £213.6 million this year.

Read Osborne Clarke’s full firm profile, including The Legal Cheek View and Insider Scorecard.

Taylor Wessing

Top-rated technology practice Taylor Wessing is a hub of social activity, according to Legal Cheek survey respondents from the firm.

One source tell us that trainees and associates will often meet up outside work, taking advantage of the firm’s “regular drinks scene” and well-stocked Friday drinks trolley. But if you can’t be bothered to try to get the gang together after work, you can always leave it to the firm: another of the outfit’s newcomers tells us “there are great trainee events organised by the firm’s trainee solicitor council”.

Location must help. Taylor Wessing’s London office, which dishes out roughly 24 training contracts annually, is located just off Fetter Lane, allowing its lawyers to take full advantage of the wide array of nearby shops, pubs, restaurants and clubs after a hard day’s work.

Read Taylor Wessing’s full firm profile, including The Legal Cheek View and Insider Scorecard.

Travers Smith

There is a solid social scene at Travers Smith. Fresh from bumping NQ pay from £71,500 to £75,000 earlier this summer, the outfit regularly puts on a range of “social events” throughout the year, according to one spy.

Another Travers insider tells us that there is always a “very good attendance at the Bishops Finger”. The pub (or Travers’ unofficial office after 7pm on a Friday) is just a two-minute walk from the firm’s London HQ.

The firm’s sociable and down-to-earth atmosphere is perhaps exemplified through a recent tweak to its office dress code policy. In August, Travers told its lawyers, trainees and support staff that they could wear “business casual” clothing when not in meetings with clients or conducting work on client floors. This allows lawyers to be “a bit more relaxed about their attire when on office floors or in internal meetings” (says the firm’s managing partner).

Read Travers Smith’s full firm profile, including The Legal Cheek View and Insider Scorecard.

Trowers & Hamlins

“You will always find someone to have a drink with and in my team drinks start at about 5ish on Fridays,” a Trowers & Hamlins trainee tells us. But, if you don’t fancy beginning your weekend with a hangover, “there are lots of opportunities to get involved in sporting or social events” at Travers too.

“There’s definitely an active social life here”, which Legal Cheek is pleased to report includes “crazy golf” in some departments. In others, such as the firm’s housing and regeneration team, the department will host welcome and leaving dinners for trainees.

The variation between departments extends to variation between offices, too. The firm has nine offices across five countries, one Trowers trainee telling us that “after work drinks in Birmingham could be better”, for example. Others, perhaps so impressed by the events the firm does put on, are left wanting more. One comment made was that the firm “could do with more firm-wide/organised socials”.

Read Trowers & Hamlins’ full firm profile, including The Legal Cheek View and Insider Scorecard.

Walker Morris

Leeds outfit Walker Morris secured its highest grade in the social life category across the entire Legal Cheek survey (in which there are ten categories). Small wonder: the corporate player puts on a host of “excellent” charity activities, one source tells us, such as quizzes and rounders. Charity dress down days are also popular.

In addition, Walker Morris’ trainees, vacation scheme students and future trainees enjoy a plethora of “great social events” put on by the the firm. Though the firm’s trainee intake isn’t huge — 15 a year — its lawyers appreciate that these socials “allow everyone to get to know each other a bit more personally”. They also “really contribute to the friendly nature of the firm”, says one Walker Morris insider. Given the friendly, sociable buzz among the trainees, we’re sure they’re thrilled by the firm’s latest 100% retention score.

Read Walker Morris’ full firm profile, including The Legal Cheek View and Insider Scorecard.

For all the key information about firms, including what they pay and their full results in the Legal Cheek Trainee and Junior Lawyer Survey, check out The Firms Most List.

The post The law firms with the best social life 2017-18 appeared first on Legal Cheek.

from All About Law https://www.legalcheek.com/2017/12/the-law-firms-with-the-best-social-life-2017-18/

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