#inflation is not something i think about Constantly generally i enjoy weight gain and general fatfur stuff more

[lycan-mutt]

bought this blueberry soda and on the label it just says BLUE BERRY SODA and all i can think of is. well. you should know. its so evocative of it. you know.

[lifeasarandomdudeknowsit-blog]

Entry #391 - Yet Another Entry About Food

I did that silly thing again where I am really tired relatively early in the evening, but instead of listening to my body and going to bed, instead I lay in bed for an hour watching videos on my phone, and by the time I decide it's been long enough or my phone's battery is low enough that I know I can't really do anything else with it, I am no longer tired.  So I attempted to sleep last night and have no idea when I actually DID fall asleep, and that caused me to stay in bed far longer than I wanted to this morning.  I wanted to get a couple of things at the grocery store this morning, but can't now thanks to oversleeping.  I mean I can go later in the day, but I usually prefer getting any shopping done in the morning.  Oh well.  At least I know I have enough stuff in my apartment for one grilled cheese sandwich.

There originally was enough supplies to make two grilled cheese sandwiches, but I made one for breakfast before I took a shower.  It was actually really good, which, when you think about the ingredients, it's really difficult to mess up butter, bread, and cheese.  I haven't made a grilled cheese sandwich in years, so this was a pleasant throwback to a time long ago, when one of my aunts used to make them for me in her own special way.  I can't remember how she used to prepare them, and she passed away many years ago, but  still, I remember standing in the kitchen watching her cook these grilled cheese sandwiches, and I remember looking forward to it since it was kind of a rare item to have.  One of these days, I really want to try some experimentation with the grilled cheese formula, putting in things other than just cheese.  Things like a slice of tomato and what have you.  Though I've been so disappointed with the overall quality of tomatoes in recent years that I find it difficult to justify using them in anything other than a sauce.

I will say, though, that the canned tomatoes used in the slow cooker lasagna recipe my mom and I used a few days ago were actually pretty decent.  I'm probably going to get the same ingredients and make another one just for funsies.  And also so I won't have to worry about what to eat for dinner for like five days.

We (my mom and I) are actually going to start preparing meals together once a week, just as a way of sort of keeping each other in check.  When we lived in the same house a few years back, we would actually do that every day, trading off cooking dinner meals and helping each other prep before the cooking.  I think it was quite beneficial to the both of us, and I know that for me, it's been a real struggle to keep my eating habits under control since moving out on my own again.  I mean I was actually losing a fair amount of weight while we lived together.  Actually, from the day we moved in together to the day I moved out, I had lost close to 100 pounds.  Which sounds ridiculous when I say it out loud.  But I was dangerously obese.  Still was after losing the weight.  But the fact that I had lost that much over the course of two and a half years didn't really sink in until last year, when I realized that I had gained about half of that weight back thanks to fairly reckless eating habits and not really noticing what I was putting in my body. So I'm hoping that this once a week meal plan will benefit us both in the long run, since I know I basically need someone to hold me accountable for the food that I eat.

I also really need to plan my grocery trips better, and purchase things that are more healthful and less processed.  I've actually cut down a lot on processed foods.  And when I say processed, I know that every food is processed in some manner.  I mean the foods that come pre-prepared in a box, foods that require a hefty amount of preservatives and other chemicals in order to be placed on store shelves.  Anyway, I don't really buy those as much as I used to, which is a great first step.  But I want to make sure I'm still getting enough fruits, vegetables, and protein as I should.  Protein is probably the most difficult thing for me to keep up, since a lot of the protein items I WOULD purchase are actually really expensive.  I know that there are lots of protein alternatives out there.  Heck, I freely admit I love tofu and should probably buy it way more often than I do (which currently stands at “almost never”).  But when I really want a nice piece of fish or some ground turkey, I have to stop myself because the prices are too high. I'm certain part of the issue here is that the grocery store where I shop is pretty expensive in general.  It wasn't always like that.  I guess they just increased their prices to go along with inflation.

I do need to vary my diet a bit more as well.  I tend to stick with the same general types of things for breakfast, and while I don't mind eggs, some sort of grain, and cheese, it does need some changing up every so often.  I need to add some sort of fruit and vegetable to the mix, and vary my choices so things don't get boring.  It's lunch and dinner that I constantly struggle with.  I used to be okay with sandwiches for lunch, but I've not enjoyed those various lunch meats in some time.  I know I can put things other than lunch meat in a lunch sandwich, but it just seems weird not to do so.  I mean I put cheese, lettuce, and probably some other stuff in them as well, and I could very likely get away with just taking the lunch meat out of there if I add something else like an avocado...actually, that might work.

Another entry helping me solve my problems through stream of consciousness writing.  Good stuff!

[jmmgroup-blog]

The danger of a crash landing in high-flying stocks, bonds and property

Global stock markets are flying. In the US, the Dow Jones has shot past its all-time high to trade at more than 20,000. The UK’s FTSE 100 is also breaking records, having burst convincingly through the 7,000 barrier after years of trying.

Bonds are now in a bull market that has lasted more than 30 years and have constantly shrugged off dire warnings of a meltdown.

Property prices continue to power upwards as well, rising another 5.3 per cent over the past 12 months, at their fastest rate for two years, according to the latest Knight Frank Global House Price Index.

Nothing seems able to stop the global surge in asset prices, which has also driven the price of many commodities, including industrial metals and in recent weeks, oil and gas.

Investors have shrugged off war in the Middle East, the Chinese property and credit bubble, euro­-zone stagnation, Brexit and the US president Donald Trump, as they continue to drive assets higher and higher.

So why isn’t everybody celebrating? Instead of throwing a party, many investors are watching events nervously, seemingly waiting for everything to go wrong.

Some are more nervous than others. Fund manager David Coombs, head of multi-asset at Rathbone Unit Trust Management, says markets are brewing up a perfect storm, and conditions are ripe for an imminent market correction of at least 10 per cent. It could be more.

He is now holding the highest-ever cash weightings across his portfolios, despite record low interest rates because he saw danger almost everywhere else, according to a report on FT Trustnet.

Mr Coombs isn’t just worried about stock markets falling, he is struggling to find worthwhile investment opportunities across just about every asset class. “We dislike bonds, we dislike property, we dislike infrastructure, we are looking at commodities but they’ve had a bit of a rally. We don’t even like any of the alternative asset classes to be honest. It is really tough at the moment,” he says.

Mr Coombs has a strong investment track record. Since launch in 2009, Rathbone Total Return Portfolio has returned 58.65 per cent compared to its benchmark’s return of 23.92 per cent.

So can stock markets, bonds and property really all crash at the same time? If so, how can investors protect themselves?

Plenty of other analysts also believe that stock markets are overvalued. Josh Mah­oney, a market analyst at online trading platform IG, which has offices in the UAE, says a rising gold price is a traditional sign of danger ahead, and it has recently spiked to a three-month high at around $1,240, suggesting the flight to safety may have already begun. “The outperformance of gold, alongside lower-risk bonds and safe currency haven the Japanese yen highlights the worries rumbling beneath global markets.

He suggests the “ominous quiet” across US markets may be a signal that something big is on its way. “The current flows into gold and US Treasuries and away from the S&P 500 is another indication that the equity rally is looking exhausted.”

Kathleen Brooks, research dir­ector at City Index Direct, says political dangers are growing, with elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany, where populists could make further headway, Brexit worries and a potential flaring up of the Greek debt and Italian banking crisis.

Then there is The Donald. When Mr Trump was elected president, stock markets surprised everybody by rising rather than plunging in panic. Investors chose to accentuate the positives of his proposed $1 trillion stimulus blitz and eliminate the negatives such as a potential global trade war.

However, Ms Brooks warns this may not last. “The president’s big test will come on February 28, when he addresses the US Congress. If he fails to deliver tremendous, even beautiful, plans on taxes and infrastructure spending then the bottom could easily fall out of the market.”

Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at Forex.com, says the era of easy monetary policy could be drawing to a close as the US Federal Reserve is turning hawkish and growth returns to Europe. “The fundamental backdrop is building up for US stocks to head for a sizeable correction – or a crash. However, the S&P 500 could still rise another 6 to 7 per cent before that.”

Mr Razaqzada says we might enjoy a final hurrah before then: “The bubble could get very large before it deflates or busts.”

James Carrick, global economist at Legal & General Investment Management, says if the Fed keeps interest rates too low for too long, it risks inflation taking off. “If it tightens too quickly, it could undermine corporate finances.”

He expects the Fed to hike rates two or three times this year, squeezing growth. “Our analysis suggests we are approaching the end of the economic cycle.”

Steen Jakobsen, chief economist and chief investment officer at Saxo Bank, says almost every traditional valuation measurement indicates that shares, bonds and property are “overbought”.

Worryingly, he thinks the Donald Trump “animal spirits” premium has made matters worse. “Any protectionist measures could wipe out the benefits of lower taxes and easier regulation.”

Mr Jakobsen says Mr Trump’s stimulus and protectionist plans will push up labour costs and import duties, and drive up inflation. “This could increase the risk of recession, which I put at 60 per cent likely in the next 18 months.”

If recession does strike, he warns that central bankers can no longer prop up the economy by cutting interest rates from today’s ultra-low levels.

He says it is possible for a number of major asset classes to crash at the same time. “Every asset has been driven upwards by extremely low monetary policy rates and this interconnection will eventually disappear.”

Mr Jakobsen says investors can protect themselves by reducing their exposure to riskier assets. “The excessive growth we have had since 2008 is likely to be replaced by a period with low to negative returns. Fixed income such as corporate bonds may offer some protection, as should commodities such as metals.”

As ever when it comes to economics, there are plenty of dissenting voices.

Gero Jung, chief economist at Swiss-based global wealth managers Mirabaud, says a sim­ultaneous slowdown in stock markets, bonds and property is unlikely. “We believe US growth will remain firm in the next 12 months, with European growth and Japanese activity also experiencing a cyclical upturn.”

Mr Jung says investors should keep risk assets in their portfolios. “Currently we favour US equities over European. On the fixed income side, we are more cautious relative to sovereign bond exposure, as we expect inflation – including in the US – to rise gradually. We are more positive on corporate bonds.”

Tom Stevenson, investment director at Fidelity Personal Investing, says although it is theoretically possible for every asset class to crash at the same time, it would be highly unusual in practice. “Our research shows that over the last 20 years, there has not been a single year in which everything has fallen together.”

For example, after the dot.com bubble burst in 2001, US stocks fell 10 per cent and European and Japanese markets by more than 20 per cent.

However, the property market dipped only slightly, while cash and corporate bonds both rose, Mr Stevenson says. “Diversification will have smoothed the ride for investors, with cash and bonds offsetting some of the pain of equity and commodity falls.”

By contrast, 2005 was a boom year, with emerging markets up 50 per cent, Japanese equities up 40 per cent, and the US, UK and Europe up 20 per cent or more. “Corporate bonds, government bonds and cash also grew strongly, which means investors gained across the board.”

Investors can therefore protect themselves from market volatility by spreading their money across different assets, Mr Stevenson says. “Do not put all your eggs in one basket. A balanced portfolio split between equities, bonds, real estate, commodities and cash, really can help smooth investment returns and lead to better long-term outcomes for disciplined investors.”

This does not guarantee that you will come out on top year after year, but it does reduce volatility and risk. Mr Stevenson concludes: “This is really good news for a hands-off, long-term investor because it means that they can sensibly invest in a well- balanced portfolio and just forget about it.”

Sam Instone, chief executive at AES International, says instead of worrying about a crash you should heed the advice of legendary investor the billionaire Warren Buffett, who said “the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good”.

The truth is that nobody knows what will happen next, no matter how convincing pundits may sound, he adds. “Investors should ignore the noise about Trump, Brexit and whether property, bonds, infrastructure, commodities or equities are going to crash, surge, peak or correct. All too often experts are trying to scare investors into using their overpriced, underperforming investment plans,” Mr Instone says.

Instead of trying to time the market or worrying about short-term shifts in share prices, he says UAE-based investors should focus on building a balanced portfolio of low-charging investments for the long term.

In this respect, investing is changing for the better. “Low-cost index trackers such as exchange traded funds [ETFs] have replaced expensive, underperforming active funds and their overpaid, fortunetelling managers to deliver much better results,” he says, recommending that UAE expats invest in index funds or ETFs every month to get “far higher investment returns and far lower charges”.

If you invest monthly, rather than paying in big lump sums, you do not have to worry about short-term corrections either, Mr Instone adds.

In fact they can work in your favour through a process known as dollar-cost averaging. This means you actually benefit if markets fall, because you buy more stock with the same monthly payment, boosting your returns when markets recover.

“Your money will steadily compound over time, without the worry of market uncertainty in between,” Mr Instone adds.

pf@thenational.ae

Follow The National’s Business section on Twitter

Source: The National

The danger of a crash landing in high-flying stocks, bonds and property was originally published on JMM Group of Companies

[martinfzimmerman]

The danger of a crash landing in high-flying stocks, bonds and property

Global stock markets are flying. In the US, the Dow Jones has shot past its all-time high to trade at more than 20,000. The UK's FTSE 100 is also breaking records, having burst convincingly through the 7,000 barrier after years of trying.

Bonds are now in a bull market that has lasted more than 30 years and have constantly shrugged off dire warnings of a meltdown.

Property prices continue to power upwards as well, rising another 5.3 per cent over the past 12 months, at their fastest rate for two years, according to the latest Knight Frank Global House Price Index.

Nothing seems able to stop the global surge in asset prices, which has also driven the price of many commodities, including industrial metals and in recent weeks, oil and gas.

Investors have shrugged off war in the Middle East, the Chinese property and credit bubble, euro­-zone stagnation, Brexit and the US president Donald Trump, as they continue to drive assets higher and higher.

So why isn't everybody celebrating? Instead of throwing a party, many investors are watching events nervously, seemingly waiting for everything to go wrong.

Some are more nervous than others. Fund manager David Coombs, head of multi-asset at Rathbone Unit Trust Management, says markets are brewing up a perfect storm, and conditions are ripe for an imminent market correction of at least 10 per cent. It could be more.

He is now holding the highest-ever cash weightings across his portfolios, despite record low interest rates because he saw danger almost everywhere else, according to a report on FT Trustnet.

Mr Coombs isn't just worried about stock markets falling, he is struggling to find worthwhile investment opportunities across just about every asset class. "We dislike bonds, we dislike property, we dislike infrastructure, we are looking at commodities but they've had a bit of a rally. We don't even like any of the alternative asset classes to be honest. It is really tough at the moment," he says.

Mr Coombs has a strong investment track record. Since launch in 2009, Rathbone Total Return Portfolio has returned 58.65 per cent compared to its benchmark's return of 23.92 per cent.

So can stock markets, bonds and property really all crash at the same time? If so, how can investors protect themselves?

Plenty of other analysts also believe that stock markets are overvalued. Josh Mah­oney, a market analyst at online trading platform IG, which has offices in the UAE, says a rising gold price is a traditional sign of danger ahead, and it has recently spiked to a three-month high at around $1,240, suggesting the flight to safety may have already begun. "The outperformance of gold, alongside lower-risk bonds and safe currency haven the Japanese yen highlights the worries rumbling beneath global markets.

He suggests the "ominous quiet" across US markets may be a signal that something big is on its way. "The current flows into gold and US Treasuries and away from the S&P 500 is another indication that the equity rally is looking exhausted."

Kathleen Brooks, research dir­ector at City Index Direct, says political dangers are growing, with elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany, where populists could make further headway, Brexit worries and a potential flaring up of the Greek debt and Italian banking crisis.

Then there is The Donald. When Mr Trump was elected president, stock markets surprised everybody by rising rather than plunging in panic. Investors chose to accentuate the positives of his proposed $1 trillion stimulus blitz and eliminate the negatives such as a potential global trade war.

However, Ms Brooks warns this may not last. "The president's big test will come on February 28, when he addresses the US Congress. If he fails to deliver tremendous, even beautiful, plans on taxes and infrastructure spending then the bottom could easily fall out of the market."

Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at Forex.com, says the era of easy monetary policy could be drawing to a close as the US Federal Reserve is turning hawkish and growth returns to Europe. "The fundamental backdrop is building up for US stocks to head for a sizeable correction - or a crash. However, the S&P 500 could still rise another 6 to 7 per cent before that."

Mr Razaqzada says we might enjoy a final hurrah before then: "The bubble could get very large before it deflates or busts."

James Carrick, global economist at Legal & General Investment Management, says if the Fed keeps interest rates too low for too long, it risks inflation taking off. "If it tightens too quickly, it could undermine corporate finances."

He expects the Fed to hike rates two or three times this year, squeezing growth. "Our analysis suggests we are approaching the end of the economic cycle."

Steen Jakobsen, chief economist and chief investment officer at Saxo Bank, says almost every traditional valuation measurement indicates that shares, bonds and property are "overbought".

Worryingly, he thinks the Donald Trump "animal spirits" premium has made matters worse. "Any protectionist measures could wipe out the benefits of lower taxes and easier regulation."

Mr Jakobsen says Mr Trump's stimulus and protectionist plans will push up labour costs and import duties, and drive up inflation. "This could increase the risk of recession, which I put at 60 per cent likely in the next 18 months."

If recession does strike, he warns that central bankers can no longer prop up the economy by cutting interest rates from today's ultra-low levels.

He says it is possible for a number of major asset classes to crash at the same time. "Every asset has been driven upwards by extremely low monetary policy rates and this interconnection will eventually disappear."

Mr Jakobsen says investors can protect themselves by reducing their exposure to riskier assets. "The excessive growth we have had since 2008 is likely to be replaced by a period with low to negative returns. Fixed income such as corporate bonds may offer some protection, as should commodities such as metals."

As ever when it comes to economics, there are plenty of dissenting voices.

Gero Jung, chief economist at Swiss-based global wealth managers Mirabaud, says a sim­ultaneous slowdown in stock markets, bonds and property is unlikely. "We believe US growth will remain firm in the next 12 months, with European growth and Japanese activity also experiencing a cyclical upturn."

Mr Jung says investors should keep risk assets in their portfolios. "Currently we favour US equities over European. On the fixed income side, we are more cautious relative to sovereign bond exposure, as we expect inflation - including in the US - to rise gradually. We are more positive on corporate bonds."

Tom Stevenson, investment director at Fidelity Personal Investing, says although it is theoretically possible for every asset class to crash at the same time, it would be highly unusual in practice. "Our research shows that over the last 20 years, there has not been a single year in which everything has fallen together."

For example, after the dot.com bubble burst in 2001, US stocks fell 10 per cent and European and Japanese markets by more than 20 per cent.

However, the property market dipped only slightly, while cash and corporate bonds both rose, Mr Stevenson says. "Diversification will have smoothed the ride for investors, with cash and bonds offsetting some of the pain of equity and commodity falls."

By contrast, 2005 was a boom year, with emerging markets up 50 per cent, Japanese equities up 40 per cent, and the US, UK and Europe up 20 per cent or more. "Corporate bonds, government bonds and cash also grew strongly, which means investors gained across the board."

Investors can therefore protect themselves from market volatility by spreading their money across different assets, Mr Stevenson says. "Do not put all your eggs in one basket. A balanced portfolio split between equities, bonds, real estate, commodities and cash, really can help smooth investment returns and lead to better long-term outcomes for disciplined investors."

This does not guarantee that you will come out on top year after year, but it does reduce volatility and risk. Mr Stevenson concludes: "This is really good news for a hands-off, long-term investor because it means that they can sensibly invest in a well- balanced portfolio and just forget about it."

Sam Instone, chief executive at AES International, says instead of worrying about a crash you should heed the advice of legendary investor the billionaire Warren Buffett, who said "the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good".

The truth is that nobody knows what will happen next, no matter how convincing pundits may sound, he adds. "Investors should ignore the noise about Trump, Brexit and whether property, bonds, infrastructure, commodities or equities are going to crash, surge, peak or correct. All too often experts are trying to scare investors into using their overpriced, underperforming investment plans," Mr Instone says.

Instead of trying to time the market or worrying about short-term shifts in share prices, he says UAE-based investors should focus on building a balanced portfolio of low-charging investments for the long term.

In this respect, investing is changing for the better. "Low-cost index trackers such as exchange traded funds [ETFs] have replaced expensive, underperforming active funds and their overpaid, fortunetelling managers to deliver much better results," he says, recommending that UAE expats invest in index funds or ETFs every month to get "far higher investment returns and far lower charges".

If you invest monthly, rather than paying in big lump sums, you do not have to worry about short-term corrections either, Mr Instone adds.

In fact they can work in your favour through a process known as dollar-cost averaging. This means you actually benefit if markets fall, because you buy more stock with the same monthly payment, boosting your returns when markets recover.

"Your money will steadily compound over time, without the worry of market uncertainty in between," Mr Instone adds.

pf@thenational.ae

Follow The National's Business section on Twitter

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