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snarktheater · 7 years

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Stranger Than Fanfiction — An addendum

So, I have a Twitter account. I know I hardly ever mention it, and the link to it is easy to miss in the blog's theme, but it exists. I almost forget about it myself, because I am the kind of human being who does that. Ahem.

All this to say, it feels like a semi-miracle that someone actually replied to one of my tweets on the Snark Theater account (specifically, the one about my Stranger Than Fanfiction review, and like another semi-miracle that I noticed it within just a few hours and not…like, months later. And I guess that adds up to a full miracle, because my miracle math is flawless like that.

Let's have a look (Disclaimer: I do not endorse people reading this blog post going after this Twitter user, so please don't do that, guys.)

Transcript:

The book is a NY Times best seller so a lot of people disagree with you. "It ain't Shakespeare." I bet he laughs all the way to the bank!

Hoo boy. Well, on the plus side, thank you, Twitter user gobbledguck, for reminding me about a crucial point I completely missed in my original review. Let's discuss. And I'm warning you in advance, this is probably going to be a little rambling. More than usual, I mean.

Now, I'm not talking about the tweet in general. "But if popular, how can it be bad?" is a question to which I've had a definitive answer for five years now: Fifty Shades of Grey. We live in a post-Fifty Shades world and popularity has been thoroughly debunked as a measure of quality.

So I'm not going to argue with the fact that the book is a best-seller, especially in the case of this specific book, which, in case you forgot, is written by a person who has millions of pre-established fans for something that has nothing to to with writing and who would buy anything he puts out there. Including, reluctantly so, this guy right here typing this blog post. I did not mention having a celebrity crush on Chris Colfer as a joke. It is well documented.

With the ritual self-depantsing out of the way, let's talk about the actually interesting thing in this tweet, and the one that actually ties back into the book. The (incorrect, but let's ignore that detail) quote. Let's put it back in context, which is from page 2 of Stranger Than Fanfiction.

Naturally, when it first premiered the critics treated the show [Wiz Kids, the fictional show protagonist Cash Carter stars in] like a piñata. […] However, with each fatal blow Wiz Kids only received more attention. People tuned in to see the "absurdity" for themselves, but they were not repulsed as promised. Audiences found the show's campiness to be rather charming, its unique underdog spirit resonated with them, and a global phenomenon was born. No, it wasn't Shakespeare, but on the bright side, it wasn't Shakespeare.

The low-hanging fruit response to this tweet is pretty simple. They are, after all, referencing the fact that the show is terrible, in the book's own text. It is beloved, but even the book's protagonists admit in hindsight that they don't like the show for itself as much as they like it for the community it gave them. (Which is pretty comparable to Chris Colfer's own Glee).

But let's not reach for the low-hanging fruit, because I think choosing Shakespeare of all points of comparison to be incredibly interesting. You could rephrase that last sentence of the quote as "it wasn't high art, but on the bright side, it was accessible." Which is funny to use Shakespeare for that, who…you know, made low-brow entertainment. Yeah, Shakespeare's popularity didn't stem from him writing stuffy, obscure stuff that only a tiny amount of elites could understand. It came from him writing (mostly) good stuff.

There's this weird trend these days to present critical acclaim and commercial success as antithetical, and I don't really get it. Or actually, I do, but the anti-intellectualism it derives from is kind of scary to me and I'm already planning an essay of sorts about anti-intellectualism, so I'm not sure I want to examine it in detail right about now.

The point is: anyone who criticizes something is immediately dismissed as wrong, a buzzkill, or in this specific case, fighting in vain against an overwhelming tide. It's become common to glorify being panned by critics, and it makes me wonder: what exactly are the ambitions of the people doing that?

I mean, look at Chris Colfer. What's his motive for writing this book? Is it to make money, as is implied by our Twitter user above saying he'll be "laughing all the way to the bank" at my little review? I have some serious doubts, considering he's already pretty successful. Is it because he had a story to tell, and wanted to tell it? If so…why would he consider critics to be the enemy? Wouldn't it be preferable to listen to them and strive for the best version of that story you can tell? Is it because he wanted to send a message about LGBT kids (Sam and Joey, sort of Topher), kids from toxic family environments (Mo and Joey), kids raised by single parents (all but Joey)? Then, once again, why not listen to people telling you your message might not really convey as well as you thought it would?

Of course, this is all hypothetical, and reviews aren't really meant for the author anyway. I don't expect Chris Colfer to read my review of his book, nor do I really want to, because I'm writing for potential readers, not for him. I'm talking about the attitude to dismiss critics and present a dichotomy of quality entertainment (here symbolized as "Shakespeare") versus enjoyable entertainment (i.e. Wiz Kids or the book itself). Not just because it doesn't apply to me personally (to paraphrase Lindsay Ellis on her Top Ten Guilty Pleasures video—which is apparently off Youtube at the moment—"no, I don't want to turn off my brain, I'm using it"), but also because it doesn't really seem to apply…in general.

Again, take Shakespeare. Am I supposed to just agree that it's adapted so much because people hate it? Every teenager in love sees themselves as Romeo and Juliet because that play is just so inaccessible and stuffy and high-brow? Yeah, right. (And that's without getting into a debate on whether Romeo and Juliet is a romance, a cautionary tale, or a mix of the two; it's still a pretty well-made play regardless of how you read it)

In fact, it's pretty easy to find things that are good and extremely popular, because it tends to be what survives the test of time (like, you know, Shakespeare). It's not universal, and it doesn't mean you personally have to like any of it. I hate Emile Zola's books and most of the music made before I was born, and for all I've defended him, I'm not a super fan of Shakespeare. But it doesn't mean I can't see the quality in all those things, or the fact that they had some pretty wide appeal, both then and now.

So that dichotomy is bullshit. What about the idea that critics themselves are wrong? You know, the idea that critics are a tool of the status quo rather than a measure of quality. Recently, you see that a lot whenever people criticize anything enjoyed by teenage girls (and not unreasonably so). Except…then you have to consider your definition of a critic. After all, to quote an overused phrase, everyone's a critic. All it takes is having thoughts about a thing. And in the Internet age, once can share those thoughts pretty easily, regardless of how much institutional power they hold. There's a reason this is a blog, is what I'm saying.

Point is: saying any criticism is automatically wrong by virtue of being criticism (so long as you have mass appeal) is a pretty weak counter-argument. And it feeds into a culture where critical thinking itself isn't encouraged, because you don't want to be one of those critics who just can't have fun and enjoy things, do you?

Look, I'm not mad at Twitter user gobbledguck for their reply. I'm not going to say I don't care since…you know…this post exists…but I'm not mad about it. It's symptomatic of a larger, self-perpetuating problem. Which this book is part of, by virtue of this quote, and, in a larger sense, all of Cash Carter's "how dare people criticize what I, a highly public figure with a huge influence on impressionable minds, do while in the public eye" speeches. Which Chris Colfer is a part of too, by virtue of writing this book as a highly public figure with a huge influence on impressionable mind, and publishing it for consumption.

So no, I'm not mad at that Twitter user, but I am mad at this book for participating into a culture that makes that tweet a possibility, and allows this user to go on without questioning their own biases.

I feel like there's probably a better rant about anti-intellectualism and the rejection of all critics in me. Hell, I feel like there's a better rant about it in relationship with this book. But, well, this is a hot take on a tweet. Maybe I'll even regret it in a few days. I've had a streak of regretting some of my recent posts and all.

But what I'm pretty sure I won't regret is the main point, the tl;dr as we are used to saying here on the Internet: "No, it wasn't Shakespeare, but on the bright side, it wasn't Shakespeare" is more or less equivalent to admitting you have no interest in writing (or reading) a good story, and honestly, I feel kind of sad for you and your admitted creative bankruptcy.

Now I'll get off my high horse before someone points out to me that that Twitter account has all of four tweets, and the other three are dedicated to shipping Chris Colfer with his co-star, and I'm probably being played by a troll and/or falling on deaf ears with this one. Reviews aren't meant for the author anyway, and I suppose this is no exception.

Okay, that should be enough self-deprecating humor that this post doesn't come across as too insufferable. Now I'll go back to bitching about a popular TV show or something.

#stranger than fanfiction #chris colfer #anti intellectualism #criticism #critical thought #critics #attacking the critics #young adult #ya books #books #young adult books #book reviews #ya #reviews #book #book review #review #st: book reviews

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dailyaudiobible · 8 years

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01/27/2017 DAB Transcript

Exodus 4:1-5:21 ~ Matthew 18:1-20 ~ Psalm 22:19-31 ~ Proverbs 5:15-21

Today is January 27th. Welcome to the Daily Audio Bible. I'm Brian. It is a pleasure to be here with you today and we’re here to take the next step forward in the adventure that is the scriptures. We’re just a couple days into the book of Exodus, which is a very dramatic story that fits in huge puzzle pieces about who these children of Israel are and why they are the chosen ones. So from the Contemporary English Version this week, Exodus chapter 4, verse 1 through 5, verse 21 today.

Commentary

We have a number of things that we should talk about today from the scriptures. We’ll begin in the Old Testament.

We’re getting to know this man named Moses who is becoming a large figure in the story and has a hand on us having these writings that we’re reading in the Old Testament at all. We’re moving into this next season after Joseph. We found out how the children of Israel, how that family got to Egypt. We found out how they multiplied and how the Egyptians forgot how they ever got there in the first place and had enslaved them. We learned of Moses and all of the male children that were supposed to be thrown into the Nile. So Moses was kind of thrown into the Nile, so to speak, but in a wicker basket and the Pharaoh's daughter found him and he was raised Egyptian even though he was Hebrew. He killed an Egyptian and ran away. So we’ve gone through all of that, but now Moses is meeting with God. Moses is having this conversation with God and his conversation is filled with all kinds of questions, like how can I be sure that you’re going to do what you say you’re going to do? How are the people going to believe me?

God is entering into this conversation. He doesn’t come down and shoot a lightning bolt right next to Moses’ left foot and make him dance away with a singed toe and say, “I am God and that is why they’ll believe me!” He enters into a conversation. This is God's way. Collaboration. Intimate relationship.

So they are having this conversation. Even though Moses is asking all kinds of questions to indicate that he is not sure that he believes this is true, God begins to show him there is power here, that he is sending him, he has an important role to play and he is going to lead God's people out of the land of Egypt. In the end Moses kind of runs out of excuses and so he digs deep into the barrel and says, “But I can’t speak in front of people. I'm slow at talking. I can’t think of what to say in those kinds of situations.” Of course, God's’ reply is, “I will help you. I’ll be with you. I’ll give you the words to say.” Moses, who is going to become a large and important figure whose life still affects us today, ends up saying something really sad because it's in us all. “Lord, please send someone else to do it.”

So there it is. The mirror of the Bible goes back up in front of our faces and makes us look at ourselves once again. How many times have we been in that position? God is moving. God is leading. We’re afraid. We don’t trust. We’re not sure this is for real and so we start finding all of the reasons that this can’t be real, can’t be happening and then we talk ourselves out of it, just like Moses is doing, send someone else to do it, you’re asking too much of me, you’re asking me for something I can’t do. It's like we were talking about yesterday. This life that we live is so often lived from a place of impossible, when that is not something that exists for a person who has been made fully whole and human.

As we move into the New Testament, we see the same collaboration. We see the same weightiness of choice. We see the same intimacy coming from Jesus’ lips. “I promise you that God in heaven will allow whatever you allow on earth, but he will not allow anything you don’t allow.” Or put in more traditional language, whatever you bind on earth will be bound in heaven and whatever you loose on earth will be loosed in heaven. So there is no way to get around this without acknowledging that what we do does matter and the world that we currently live in is the one that we have created for ourselves. Obviously it is not the one God intended, but it is the one that he allowed. The choices that we make are creating the world that we live in and we can’t escape that. We try to escape that. We try to blame everyone. We try to blame God. But the mirror isn’t lying.

We could easily say well, God is sovereign over all of this and why would he allow our choices to matter when our choices aren’t going to be the best ones? This goes all the way back to the beginning. Love, true love, real authentic, intimate, honest, deep love is something that is entered into by choice. There is no other way. You can’t be co-opted into true love. You can’t be strong-armed into true love. You can’t be enslaved into true love. Those things can happen, but the result isn’t true love. True love is entered into by choice. The intimacy and collaboration that we have with God, whatever state or shape that it is in, is by choice. It is one of the gifts of Eden that we are created in the image of God and we get to choose to be truly in love with him or not. And those choices in big and small ways, they make the life that we have created and the world that we have created for ourselves.

So may we take that to heart today and understand once again, because the Bible is going to hammer this home over and over in all kinds of ways from all kinds of angles, it matters what you do. This is an invitation to a collaboration with God in restoring all things. We’re part of that story. If we can’t even do it in our own hearts, if it can’t even spill into our own homes, well then we can’t blame God for what we are allowing because he is allowing what we’re allowing.

Prayer

Father, there is certainly a weightiness to that. There is some heft there. So as we sit with that today, we invite your Holy Spirit because it's not always about the big mistakes or the big victories. Those are maybe the things that we remember or focus on most, but all of those things, they came together because of a series of choices, many different nuanced choices that we’ve made. Where we sit right now, wherever it is that we’re listening to this, whether it's in a car or on a train or in a bed or in a shower or wherever, we are standing or sitting where we are right now because of the systematic choices that we have made over the course of years. So here we are and you’ve allowed it because you will allow what we will allow. So Father, we need some help. We need your Holy Spirit's wisdom. We need to see the way that we habitually make choices that end us up in the same kinds of places. We need to see how we’ve been trying to manage this on our own as our own sovereign and not even talking to you about the small things, but the small things add up to big things, so we need your counsel. We need your Holy Spirit to well up within us in everything that we do and say and think because they all go somewhere and we are here to be about the business of bringing and being your Kingdom. We’re just completely distracted from that on most days. Give us the eyes and the ears of the Kingdom. Let us lift our heads from the ground up to the horizon and see that it is bigger than us. It is bigger than we know and you have invited us to play a role. So come Holy Spirit, let us feel the weightiness of that and live our lives nobly, honoring the fact that our choices matter and we choose you. Come Jesus, we pray in your name, amen.

Announcements

Www.DailyAudioBible.com is home base. It's the website. It is where you find out what is going on around here, so check it out. Check out the resources that are available there and events and prayers and connection points. Everything that you would be looking for you can find there. So check it out.

If you want to partner with the Daily Audio Bible, you can do that at www.DailyAudioBible.com as well. There is a link. It's on the home page. And if you’re using the Daily Audio Bible App, you can push the More button in the lower right-hand corner, or if you prefer the mail, the mailing address is P.O. Box 1996, Spring Hill, TN 37174.

And, as always, if you have a prayer request or comment, (877) 942-4253 is the number to dial.

And that's it for today. I'm Brian. I love you and I’ll be waiting for you here tomorrow.

Community Prayer Requests and Praise Reports

Hi, this is Lisa, the Encourager just calling tonight to pray for Bill B. He called in. He was on his way to the Veteran's Hospital and I think it is also appropriate for me to thank him so much for his service and everything he's done for us in serving in the military and pray for the others that are still serving today, so I’ll do that tonight. Dear Lord, I pray for Bill as he was on his way to the hospital because he is having some breathing problems. Lord Jesus, I just pray that you will help the doctors at the Veteran's Hospital to use wisdom and practice whatever they need to do to help Bill to be better soon and to find a solution to why he is having breathing problems quickly and be able to resolve the issue and there would be minor difficulties, there won't be anything major wrong and that you just send your guidance and your angels to watch over him and comfort his family and help him to have a speedy recovery from whatever it is that is ailing him at this time, Lord. And I want to thank you so much for his service for our country as a veteran and everything that he did while he served so that all of us could be right here on the land free and able to exercise our freedom because of what our veterans did for us, Lord. I also pray for all the veterans that are out there serving today, right now as we are in the comfort of our homes, in the comfort of our lives and our jobs and all the food and all the luxuries of life that we have here as they are out there serving our country. And I just pray for each and every one of them. I pray for the ones that don’t have a relationship with you.

Good morning DAB family. I'm Carol from the UK. Thank you so much, Brian, for sharing your very moving account of your mom's last few days. I'm sure that many people like myself were in tears. In 1939 I was evacuated into a loving Christian family and their neighbors also were Christians who had a daughter younger than myself. We formed a lifelong friendship which is still there today, over 76 years later. She met a local boy who I actually went to school with and because I was an evacuee who was bullied as if I was an alien or an immigrant, he was the only person who stuck up for me and supported me. A few years ago my friend informed me that her husband was suffering from Parkinson's and the onset of dementia. He, like your mom, Brian, couldn’t eat or swallow anything. My friend told me he was suffering so much she just wanted God to take him. I told her that God was preparing his room for him when he was ready and a few days later she told me that his room was ready for him early that morning. She told me that although she was somewhat relieved, she still missed him terribly. My husband of 59 years is almost 87, reasonably good health, has been a wonderful husband and father and we’re still very much in love with each other. Although he is a believer as such, he has not yet accepted Jesus as his Savior, so please pray for him to take Jesus as his Lord and Savior before it is too late. Thank you so much and God bless you all.

Good morning family and friends. This is Cherry C., Cherry Pie. I want to send this to Salvation is Mine. Hey girl, letting you know I’ve got your back. You're covered. I do understand where you are. Just knowing that you’re covered, relax. Just relax and let God just totally take over and you’re going to be fine. You know you’ve got a lot of people praying for you, thousands of people praying for you. We’re right here by your side, so just relax. Try to relax anyway. I love you and I am going to continue to pray for you. You guys, I want to do a roll call, Tasha from New York, (there are a lot of people missing that have not called in), Sinner Redeemed, where are you? Blessed Like Me, I miss your calls. There are so many that I can’t even get all the names out, but come on guys. You all call in. I'm constantly and I'm sure everybody else is thinking about you guys. Call in and let us know how you’re doing and where you are in life. You guys have a great, blessed, and marvelous day. I am. I love you guys. I will talk with you guys soon.

Hi, this is Loralee from Boynton Beach and I would like to pray for the Hardin family right now. I was waiting for the Holy Spirit to give me God's word because I didn’t have any words. Heavenly Father, I would like to thank you for Mrs. Hardin and I know she is having a really good day right now. I would like to lift up the comforting words of your son, Jesus, and sow it into the Daily Audio Bible family right now. The scripture is John 19:26-27. When Jesus saw his mother and the disciple whom he loved standing nearby, he said to his mother, “Woman, behold your son.” Then he said to the disciple, “Behold your mother” and from that hour the disciple took her to his own home. Mrs. Hardin, you are home __________ greatly honored to greet you in heaven and I thank you and I pray that we all, as mothers of sons, will leave a legacy in our own son's lives, that they obey what they were made to do and to sow into lives of many life-giving words every day, giving glory to God. In Jesus’ name, amen.

Good morning, this is Under His Wing, a first-time caller. I would like to beg prayers for a dear and longtime friend especially of my husband. His name is Peter and late last summer he was diagnosed with brain cancer. He was doing well until Christmastime and now isn’t. Hospice has been called in. Many thanks and blessings to all of you, including Brian Hardin and family. Thank you.

Hi Brian, this Paula from __________, OH and I just finished listening to your tribute to your mother. I hope I can get through this message. I'm just speechless. It was the most beautiful message and I think it can educate a lot of people on dementia and I hope that I can share this. But I am late for work now because my makeup is streaming down my face, but thank you so much for opening your heart to us. We love you. You’ll never know the changes that you have done for so many people including myself. I just want to thank you and bless you. It is such a tribute to know you and to have you share the love that you had for your mother and your father. My mother will be 91 in March and she is still living and I’ll give her a big hug from you. God bless you and your family and Jill and Zekey and all your children. We love you so much, Brian. Thank you for walking in Christ daily. Bye-bye.

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jeffrmayhugh · 5 years

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Bitcoin Tale of Two MASSIVE Patterns! March 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

Once again we have a tale of two massive patterns. My. Son. Led me into my. Media. My staff. Me and my son. Me and add me and my son. Met. Me or my son. Me. Welcome back to Crown’s crypto okay. People of Chemin number one over here waking up for a very sunny and late morning over here on a Tuesday morning from Helsinki Finland. Want to wish you well as always and we got a shit ton to talk about. I am freshly out of the doctor’s appointment from the other. From last night and feeling a lot better after that perhaps more a bit later but all is well and good. Just still recovering a little bit. I do think that we’re gonna do a twitch stream a little bit after this perhaps as I have nothing else to do. Quite literally not only are we on quarantine but I literally by doctor’s order cannot even fucking move around all that much so with all that said we have a lot to talk about on price action right now. I want to fall from yesterday’s analysis as while I didn’t think that is very likely we did obviously hit the the the the upwards targets that were kind of based upon those next pivot points and I want to kind of follow up and how that’s changed the picture for now. And now we do have some pretty massive patterns actually being shoved right in front of our faces right in front of our very faces. Anyways before we get to that I do want to say that the Crown trade application is right trading as it is right in your face right here and it can be had for when I’m sent free at Epcot crown the net and in Burgundy folks in a big amount on this today. So we’ve been so we’ve been following these numbers for the last well really for ever since I’ve since I have this up but but more importantly we’ve been following these numbers for the last week or so with regards to the open interest as the open interest has still count is still has still come down as we did get a little bit about 5 million for a brief second early in the week about 550 million on that last down move. Now going back up in price action while open interest goes down in volume is still coming down as volatility also comes down. We now have a narrative that fits from an underlying market dynamics perspective that fits into the patterns that are going to be looking at plus just a general technical analysis. Also I forgot to fucking mention it once again. Jesus Christ man because we are because it is this quarantine week I suppose and I don’t know if it’s going to be ending anytime soon unfortunately. We did it. We did decide to extend the discounts on all the programs make sure that they are outside make sure to watch the videos on them if you are into them then they’re going to explain who they’re for how to get the most value out of them. And as always with any one of these programs I won’t go too deep into the details of them right now that’s what the videos are for but I do want to say make sure that if you are considering them make sure to take advantage of the free content on this on this channel first because it is literally can more than 3000 hours plus of free content and that’s pretty good. That’s probably what most people about to the level that they want to be anyways so you don’t need to invest and make a massive time or financial investment in those Anyways let’s get down to it right and over here at La starting off with our lovely chart that we had yesterday on Jeet X and as you can see we did. We did head back down to that to our horizontal routing over here. But contrary to what to what my bias was yesterday I said that we were likely to have a bounceback around here and head back into the low 6000. However I was looking for a rejection there especially a alongside this blue box territory right here about sixty 400. Obviously bitcoin has exceeded that that area now and that’s going to initiate and kind of define the next sort of set of targets as well as the next set of bases right here. Now here’s the thing and here’s what this analysis is all going to hinge on so going to show both the Bush and bearish narrative for this. And then the critical pivot points for this. You know for for these next target. So first and foremost the most important level right now is our last local high run over here. You can you know I’ll do it on like a four hour total closing basis just because that does seem to be a good timeframe from you know not too low over time frame but not too high of a timeframe that gives us you know a nice little act area of action that you can see right here. As long as we are closing for our dollars below this area below our last local high which is 67 50 ish region or maybe this is a little bit higher than that actually we could we can conservatively say it’s about sixty eight hundred in fact I’ll make a little bit of a zone right here for now. I do. Sorry. As long as your closing below is below this there is no continuation be looking at of course. Yes we did get a week above that’s fine but as long as we’re not closing for adults above there even to our is probably gets it as well. I would not be looking for what I’m about to describe next. So we have to delineate between low timeframes medium timeframes and high macro timeframes where we’re looking at right now is low timeframe bullshit. So with that said let’s go into our side that was actually a 10 hour that we’re looking at. But for our you know pretty much the same read and over here as well. In fact we can move these areas of action down. In fact this actually fits the narrative significantly better. As as as we are testing that area right now as you can see so we do get a nice Wick above but no closures as of yet although we’re definitely have a chance to close above on this next for our data which is going to be the next twelve hour delay closed as well. And if you are using the 10:00 hour as I just was then we could use those same numbers about 67 50 to 60 100 each region. Again they’re pretty damn close here regardless of the fact. So I would just be going blue box to blue box in this current trajectory. Now what I wanted to what I wanted to start this off with is that because of the price action yesterday we do have a new pattern going on right here now don’t we. We do have a nice little falling channel which is typically going to be is off to the upside as far as as far as statistics statistical analysis does go. Actually maybe I should be doing this on it. Maybe I should be doing this on a two hour it’s gonna be about the same regardless of that but a little bit more precise a little bit more precise here. Anyways there we go. That I think that’s good enough and we can make a mesh move on this. We actually have initiated the upside of this now. Now haven’t we as we did close but this blue box territory right here which would be of course what’s called resolving that to the upside. Now this does initiate a move from a measure move basically back around a prior week high right around about 7000 bucks. So technically speaking should be looking for a move within that region. This is a more conservative estimate actually because we could just as easily draw this in the same way. Right around here which would a long gate that target about another hundred bucks higher I believe somewhere right around about 70 50 to seventy one hundred seventy one fiftieth ish region. Now this is what is interesting from this narrative though because while we do have a short term bullish formation right here in the formation of a following channel which right now is potentially could turn into a little bit of a swing filler pattern especially if we start to close for our dodos back below. This higher low right here at about six five hundred but we’ll get to that later. Remember over the last few days we have been working on this as well. Unfortunately or fortunately for the Bears. Unfortunately for the Bulls we do still have this massive rising channel right over here so it’s a tale of two channels. We have both a falling channel which typically bullish which we already got the Bears the resolution to the upside right there and you could even say that this target was perhaps even front ran which I think is I think that’s relevant. And then we also have a bear the greater bearish pattern right here which we are unfortunately in in beneath or in between and beneath. So I I’m I’m operating off of like low hours of sleep. I still feel like shit by the way but I feel I feel good enough to to do some march do some actual twitching later perhaps. But you know but as it stands we do have this. Well let’s actually draw this right maybe we do have this rising general technically Bear Flag still in the making as well which we are living below as long as we are below about 70 300 a Saudi 400 ish region right over here. Now going back to what we began this video with we realize that open interest has been coming down this whole way as price action has been going up slowly and volume has been more or less steadily on the decline in volatility further confirming that factor as we do see a nice steady decline coming in all the way from you know essentially March 13th like Doomsday and going back on over here you know if we were to follow the trend line on it and if we were to maybe even bring this around a four hour out imagine. Yes. That’s exactly what you’d expect. It’s curtailing its contracting and that further confirms the look on this and the analysis from the open interest perspective that I still would have an overall bearish bias on the greater formation here. I’m still very skeptical on this price action. You know. So it’s essentially reverting the whole the whole cycle back from Bear to bull this quickly I think that this is perhaps or a sorry it’s not perhaps it’s very very likely shorts closing doing all this price action. I say this this chart is so fucking convoluted I apologize about this. We can get rid of a lot of this stuff we can get rid of the short term falling channel right here and all these other levels are important and I actually do want to keep them in because they likely do hold weight over time. If anything we could get rid of this guy right here for now. Maybe get rid of this guy. There we go. Okay. That cleans it up just a smidge in there but anyway so that would still put in the bias of this being essentially a redistribution pattern over the long period of time which does fit the pattern there which does fit the structure narrative. Does that fit the open interest narrative would just fit the volume narrative which does fit the. It’s like like a fuckin robot right now and the volatility narrative as well of course. And that is essentially available as long as we are below about 73 to twenty four hundred. But that also means that we can rally up to about 73 to only 400 as well and still not really do anything all that crazy from that perspective. Now does that match up with anything else that we’re looking at in fact. Well it kind of does because that would be around the measured move if we were to take a more aggressive measured move on this baby of what we saw and I had I had Porsche to Ron before I wanted it right around the last prior little spike high right there which is what we got. You can see that this measure move is more or less coming in line with the topside resistance of this proverbial flag formation. I would say it’s more of a channel than anything just because well if we do make it into a bear flag it’s just going to it I think it’s kind of I think it’s kind of gone on for a little bit too long for that to really fit but. But more importantly as long as you blow this area about it over here that does still fit the narrative unfortunately so I do think that bitcoin can very easily have some more upside here especially if we close this next for our dollar above our last prior height about 60 700 on a four hour total closing basis and especially above about 60 70 50 if we if we closed above there which this can be the 12 hour total closing basis. I would look for likely extension all the way up to maybe 70 150 to maybe even 70 400 ish region right here. I mean it’s getting quite it’s not that’s not very precise so it’s not. So it’s obviously not very helpful. But as long as we are within the bounds of this region I do think that we likely are looking at redistribution but that could also include the five had all moved to the upside. I do not believe change around my overall perspective on Bitcoin from bearish to bullish intel. I mean there is a lot of ways of doing this but if I wanted to be as aggressive as possible I would probably wait for a weekly closed above Sunny 500 if we could do that that would be obvious. Even a daily closed above Sunny 500 is quite obvious. Or or just a daily close above above the top of the channel formation which is again it’s coming around 73 50 to sunny 400 ish region. So Bitcoin sells a lot of work to do here but it could very easily have a little bit more upside. The problem with this also is though is that we are creating some hidden bearish evidence on some time frames that actually do matter like a daily. You see that daily RSI is getting well above where we were even on the 10th of March which was this breakdown right here when Bitcoin was hanging around 8000 bucks so that’s going to be an issue. You know all the way up basically until a thousand dollars unfortunately you know as suit you know assuming that our side. Well the other is obviously way higher than that so yes it will be an issue pretty much no matter what. So I just want to show that while things are looking a little bit a little bit nice right here and we and we actually did and while we did talk about these scenarios yesterday while I didn’t necessarily think that they were very likely to happen. Still you know more planning to come with this territory. So it’s a little bit a little bit difficult of the situation here. You also can see that perhaps we might even be working on some some some regular bearish divergence on our lower timeframes like a 4 hour. But while we are here on the lower term time frames I just want to also show that some momentum also is asking to get a little bit hotter. Got for our stocks getting way up there but that’s OK. They can still they can still another stab higher. I would imagine that around the you know the seventh a little bit above 7000 7000 dollar region they should start to get pretty damn hot. Three our gonna be about the same thing we should see these more or less in line two are going to be the same thing as well in hourly kind of flip flopping around here so I do think that we prolly have another drive higher is what they douche is what they do suggest we do have enough momentum here for of drive higher at least and then I would be very very very very defensive in the in the in the lower 7000 or region especially around 70 150 ish region I believe that does match up also as also with our two day look. Yes indeed. OK. So this is what I’m very concerned with as well coming in that region remember the two day that we’ve been looking out for for quite some time. We do have the two day death cross still looming. Now of course with this last upwards move it’s obviously going to be a lot less of a it’s going to be lot less of a slope. So it will. It will kind of postpone the death cross on this perhaps even indefinitely especially if we get back above seventy nine hundred bucks. That’s quite far away right now. But fair enough you know that you never know in bitcoin land blights you know as as this area does come around. We do see the 20 when I speak to an average Hain out where on this timeframe right around Sony 350 ish region. So Bitcoin did pop up to some 350 ish region test of this region essentially the top side of that rising channel formation and we still see open interest essentially coming down or remain at flat as well and in volume still kind of on that steady decline. I would look at that as a test of the two day deal to death cross right over here. Also pattern formations and and I would actually be interested in a position at that point in time also because it’s you know it’s relatively easy to manage and like as with anything it’s game Massachusetts doesn’t mean that it’s actually going to 1 percent work out. But I would be comfortable putting on some risk there just point a position as ever really played a position in quite some time here. Other than that what also I want to say do we have a two day closing tonight. I believe we do. Yes we do. So if we close the two day tonight and here’s kind of like the Don’t Say foolproof way of doing it there’s no foolproof way of doing anything but if if I really wanted if I really wanted to be what’s the word that I’m looking for confident. Confidence bad word but back confident that we are going to reach into the low 7000 Daraa region which this will come down again once we get this new two day total closure which are going to happen tonight at 8:00 p.m. Eastern time. If we close above the 10 simple I do believe that we will test it. We will very very likely test it at that point in time. It’ll be coming in somewhere right around thirty three hundred member that is essentially the top side of our channel resistance right here. I have this at about 70 to 50 so close enough is close enough especially when talking about a two day that’s fine. And that’s also gonna be meeting up with the next measured move off of the short term falling trend that we saw that is that is showing probably that we do have a little bit a little bit more bullish momentum which is also mediated by the lower term timeframes much more sort of saying that you know we likely have a little bit more a little bit more upside here to go as well so I do think that bitcoin probably has short term upside by the way we do have the twin expansion image on the foiled timeframe coming in right around 70 to 50 as well. So I do think that we prevent other stab to the upside but I would be defensive against against it chasm because still the greater picture is not the picture of health and fitness unfortunately. So again you know I know a lot of a lot like if I found to be wrong about some like this I’m I’m sure that I may get a shit ton of very mean and nasty comments which is fine. You know I totally understand that but but for the people having to give a fucking and for the people who have been here for a long time you understand that tentacle in our soul about statistics and with these sorts of things. You know I do need it as a trader I need to see confirmations or least well you don’t really need there’s multiple ways of trading of course but my but my particular style of trading is that I want to you know wait for wait for confirmations yes it’ll make me a little bit on the sluggish end sometimes but it does keep me out of it does keep me out of out of searching for longs during 2013 and searching for shorts during the middle of 2019 right here and more recently four furlongs once again. So I do like that but this next two day deal little closure is gonna be very very important. Now if we do start closing two days above sorry not the not two days but the two day chart above the twenty one right here which again it’s about 73 three each region will call. That would also be a good a damn good early indication or maybe not so early but the earliest for myself that I that it’s time to change round the bias. We’re gonna we’re very likely to pop back up above 8000 and this is all just like some very nasty shit how movements in the way that only Bitcoin can really do it. And perhaps if we want to bring up like the biggest possible hope him that we could think of then we’re doing some like this like some sort of massive Well I guess it’s not gonna make much sense on linear scale although I should probably start using that but it would make more sense from a log scale where we could be doing some sort of massive symmetrical triangle coming off the lows which for now the narrative does work on that and we actually are from a long term perspective getting closer and closer to the resolution point of this which I would say becomes extremely likely to break somewhere right around here right around June July. Late June early July is where I’ll be looking towards. I do like how this match up from a fib perspective as well we got the 6 1 8 at the breakout point to the upset at ninety 550 and we got well somewhere right around here we’d have the 76 right around our breakdown point at that at that time frame as well so for kind of making assumptions here to be fair. But you know just want to show you know just want to show that you know it is in the cards. So fair enough. You know fair enough. But here’s the thing still. You know while we do have the two day death cross looming and can be reverted especially if we start closing to date it was back above the 21 at 73 33 three fifty. We also do have the weekly 21 and 55 right over here and I do look at a lot of this price action especially as volume is kind of coming down in price sections popping back up to test around these around these major moving average crosses as the test of that cross which is going to provide insight into the efficacy of that cross are the bottom I was actually on the same side. Are they in switch on their sell programs around that area. That’s the insight we’re gonna get in that we’re gonna get clarity on probably probably by end of week I’d say. And and that’s where things start to become a lot more interesting from a long term trading perspective as I have not I haven’t really taken like a long term position in a while now I’ve probably been taking any positions cause I’ve been hopped up on fucking pain pills a shit ton recently for anyone who’s new here I just had a I just had a back surgery and it’s pretty nasty and it’s pretty disgusting and I just went back to the doctor last night and they told me the most enlightening thing of all time because there’s like a massive hole in my back and basically they said well you can you know you could you know you could use like some sort of swallow there’s some shit or you could try putting a tampon in them like what the fuck are you shit what hey hey doc what the fuck you to say. She told me to put Tamils in my back. Well it is quite engine ingenious but it does make me feel a little bit less manly than I typically do with my raspy lesbian voice. So looking at all this price action about it over here I do want to remain cognizant. Also the fact that weekly stocks have been nosedive in this whole way and they’ve got plenty of room down for the higher term time frames. Not only that but weekly RSI is just popping back up to test around the bearish controls and as it is right now. So these things still make me very very apprehensive. As far as a greater picture goes. But we haven’t really talked too much about the lower term timeframes just yet. So I think it’s time for me to go back down into the lower term time frames I think we can use this g tax chart right here. I think it’s pretty good. And let’s talk about the low term time frame. So I’ve only been talking about high end macro time time frames which actually do have a chance of probably doing some very interesting reverse. So variance in behavior is within this probably within this week but by now we can go down to the low term time frame now that we have all that mapped out and just and just talk about blue boxes and level by level so first and foremost I would say that some there is very very very very very obvious pivot point right around here right around 6 400. Because we are above 6 400. On the short term time frames is you know is the bias to the upside. I mean like here’s the problem is that I should have gone over this yesterday because 60 400 I did not think was cap broken about yesterday but once it did that initiated our next move to this blue box right over here. Becka prior high I believe I did say that yesterday though. So I hopefully I can feel good about that. No it doesn’t matter what you feel good about it only it only matters what you positions on four. But here is a thing. If we close above this blue box that we’re currently operating above right now we will create another higher high on the four hour and I believe we would also confirm a higher hang the 12 bar as well. Yeah. Yeah we would. Yes yes indeed we would. I know they’re gonna be closing at the same time so this next for our total closure of 8 hour our site is actually not a meeting now in eight hours but four hour and twelve hour can be pretty damn important because if that does happen I would look for a retest. Back around our prior Spike high at about 7000 bucks a little bit north of 7000 bucks and then realistically I don’t really see any reason I don’t really see anything in Bitcoin’s way between there and basically like 70 to 50 to semi 350 ish region. That’s where I do think hunting behavior and trapping behavior can can come back again for this asset. So that’s what I keep an eye out for right now as far as a lower term time frames go. As we said momentum positives are still still okay here. Still a little bit more upside but in out and out essentially be cautious here on the low timeframes and we can get rid of this one too. Okay that’s good that’s actually great. Let me get rid of this blue box right here it’s not it’s important but it’s not too important to get rid of this guy right here as well. Okay so as long as bitcoin does remain above 60 400 you know I’d be more or less cautionary Ashley bullish on the very short term time frames although I’m not trading this at all at all right now. Fuck that if we do if we do start to break 60 400 even on like a two hour dollar closure even just taking out this spike low right here actually. Which conveniently enough is right around 60 400. If we if we take out that Spike low I would look for and I would look for another move back down all the way to the top to this little this little block territory right here actually. Very short term time frame stuff but it is relevant especially to what we’re talking about because it’s not only going to be this this little block right here but also the bottom side support of our potential flag formation. So I would be looking for another bounce off this region. This is coming in right around about 58 50 to 59 50 ish region right here. After that I go back into complete. What’s it called How to Speak English. Fucking God damn it man. I swear it like sometimes that is completely forgot the these pain pills are like the worst thing ever. I absolutely despise taking them. They are pretty fun but I do despise taking them anyways. If we you know if we came back down to this region I will look for an initial short term time frame bounce. I don’t have any real targets on that bounce just as long as it doesn’t get back above 60 400. It is fair game and I’d look for that bounce get sold into and then we’d actually resolve this massive rising channel right here to the downside. Once we get that then we can actually have another measure move. And now that we really have a solid three tests on both sides we can see this this this trend over here is for the volume not for anything else then we can actually see that we would have a measured viewpoint it’s all the way down. Basically decide we need to position this a little bit better because it would make. Like where would it actually be maybe somewhere right around here. This way this would actually invoke a measured move all the way down to the low for thousands that forty two hundred ish target that that I still think is likely bitcoin gets into the reason why say that is because again if if bitcoin is going to reverse off this formation I think it’s quite unlikely. Just from a historical standpoint the reason why I say that again is because we’ve never seen. We’ve never seen a reversal on Bitcoin as far as the macro or even the higher term time frames without without bullish evidence on at the very least the daily. And do we have any bullish evidence as it is right now. No. If we came back down to forty two hundred would we create bullish evidence. Yeah absolutely would we. I mean very likely and let’s be just absolutely shouters which would be. That would be pretty problematic but we’ll get to that bridge if we cross it and and then. But you know. But going back into the time sorry into the history of Bitcoin we’ve never even seen like a major reversal without bullish evidence on the daily. And I’m talking and just for example right here I’m talking about this one right here having two drives before about a 3000 4000 dollar rally from sixty five to ten five so four thousand dollar rally we had this guy right here know the three drives three thousand dollar rally right after that and it works for the downside as well. This one I’m having three drops the tops of right here before 10 sorry 14000 down to. I mean you could say that we even where we are right now and then on the you know like on our current cycle low at about thirty one hundred right here one two three drives. Same thing on the high of twenty eighteen running over here and there were several instances of more of of divergences during these during these parish pumps essentially the before that we have to go all the way back down to of course 2014 2015 as I was our last major reversal and you just see the same thing here as well as as well as 2013 and even all the way back to 2010 and 2011. So. So that is pretty consistent with Bitcoin’s history and we’ve never we’ve never seen a full on markets like a reversal without without bullish or bearish evidence that actually works on both sides on the daily and we do not have that as it is right now on on Bitcoin. So I am very I’m very skeptical here. I’m a little bit stumped with this price section and there’s going to be. And right now I need to see it say a healthy amount of I don’t know. And I don’t and I don’t really have like a full on bias right now. My bias boner is very very very very very very weak. So unfortunately you know does Bitcoin talk about where we are right now. Just Bitcoin move to 70 300 maybe top out there. Does Bitcoin completely shatter expectations. I mean expletives terrible to have of course but does Bitcoin essentially reverse the trend and make me just feel a complete fucking moron by getting back above like 70 350 and closing a daily above there. I’m open to all these possibilities. So I want to not have too much of a bias right now. I know where I want to be taking my trades. I know what my risk is more importantly and that’s really all that trading has to be don’t have to know where in the end to go just have to come up with a nice little trade plans. But with regards to that we can’t come up with probabilities. Let’s get ahead let’s go back on over here. Now I would say this I would say this if we do close this next for our deal for for our dollar below the blue box basically in line with our last prior Hi this is going to look a little bit more like a top right here we’ll have a nice double top and we’ll have bearish evidence present on the for our total time frame as well as well as making a nice rising channel here albeit not perfect but maybe maybe we could try formulate this bet on a 12 hour. Yeah. In fact we’ve got a right here. Yeah. Yeah in fact we got it right here. Okay. So it does work on the twelve and by the way the 12 hours can be close in that same time as a four hour and same sort of issues right here. So. Fair enough. So yeah. Okay. Fuck what was I just on. Yes that’s right. Okay. Lower term time frame. Let’s go back to the lower term timeframes. Bring up the areas of action. This this one again right here 60 400. Only relevant to the very short term if we do break to the downside or even just close or even just tick below it. Actually I would look for extension all the way down about fifty nine fifty nine fifty to 58 50. Price more bounce here and then and then carry this on over. Now if we do close closes for our deal above we’re basically about where we are right now. I would look for probably extension all the way to the two hundred around so many 250 to something 300 ish region. Let’s look at probabilities to kind of come up with an idea of what’s most likely. It’s obvious gonna be the upside it’s obviously gonna be the fucking upside. No shit. Wow enlightening information ground you fucking moron. I agree. I am a fucking moron looking at this right here would you see the tops out of the first aviation where presently speaking right around 70 chief 50 so I do like that as in line with the top side of our we’ll just we’ll just refer to it as our flag formation. The rising channel that we kind of open up this video with by the same token to the downside of what do we see that the bottom side the first aviation ride around 58 50. The bottom side. Blue Box. So is it likely that we confirm a reversal above that critical region to the upside today. Well less than 16 percent chance is it likely that we confirm that we could confirm a continuation pattern to the downside below fifty eight fifty fifty nine hundred well less than 16 percent chance. So it is kind of neutral as far as the bigger picture goes. But of course when we’re talking about probabilities we also want to be looking at the low term time frames as well and we can see very obviously that’s closing above. So where’s where’s my little pain. Hey where are you. Where’d you go Molly. Must be. Must have forced it away. Oh it’s actually right here. Okay there we go. Nice. All right. Got it. No problem. Okay let’s see. Let’s let’s input our single side. Target 2. I think I think 67 50 would do it on the next for our total closure which is by the way going to be the same thing as the next twelve our total closure which is closing in two hours and 47 minutes and 45 seconds. And what would our probability of closing above that region be. Actually pretty fucking high almost 47 percent so pretty damn good. What’s our probability of closing below that target which would essentially look like make this look like a rejection once again and basically dump looks like a double top also bearish divergence president as well. Well the probability for that is 53 percent so a little bit more likely to be fair. However I do think that well that that that that is quite relevant so no I won’t. I won’t say that. I think the most obvious thing that we could be looking at for the downside is just any sort of a four hour total closure below eight hundred is very likely. Not just I mean all these blue boxes are likely to be bounces to the downside but I do believe that ultimately we’d find out we’d find our footing somewhere down around 40 to under this region. That’s well and far away. I’m just checking out the time right now. Looks like we’re 30 minutes in already. What the fuck. How did this even happen. Nobody knows. I also want to check out the twelve hour momentum all sodas. He’s one man so lovely. And what you see right here. So we see two things we do see a sport trend line forming over the long term connected with our last few lows coming in early or sorry late fed early March of 20 20 of this year and then our last major low at the 10th before major breakdown and then our last major low at the March 13th at about 40 two hundred ish region or forty five hundred on a daily closing basis. Not only that we do have a competing trend line going on right over here potentially to touch this does not make a trend but you can kind of if we were to draw regression. Actually no it’s it’s not gonna work like that. OK. I call myself out that’s wrong Crown you’re fucking wrong. It’s like I’m having an internal discussion and I’m both wrong and right at the same time it’s like fucking Shorten’s Schrödinger’s fuckin schizophrenic. Anyways we’re curling back up right now doesn’t look all that strong to me but I would look for potential you know potential pressure right around this point as well how far does precession get around that point. Well either why where you here right now or it gets all the way up to the top of the next resistance so that’s sensing my look right now I think I think we either top out here or you move up another few hundred but outside not few hundred like five or ten bucks it’s like seventy two hundred seventy three out of this region and properly put in the top there and then if we’re gonna play at some downside that would be the good area to do it from the obvious areas that would further enhance that buys would be for the short term break it back down below six forward is taking below there initiate a move back down around here for another four to six five and our plays very very trainable very very nice or or or closing the sex for our on on a ha ha. I mean that’s how hard hard to hit an uptrend hard to hate an uptrend maybe fair and then and then like the obvious you know return back to the lows bias would be if we if we close for our doubles bluffs 58 58 50 ish region would be good for me. OK. All right this analysis will self-destruct in about five minutes so it’s completely useless anyway. What else do we have. Do we want to look at traditional Argus. Yes sure why not. Still following the downtrend all rallies fail and direct as fuck. And now we are on my. This is like this is the blue box that I did not think was going to get hit anytime soon gets it the next fucking week. Nice nice one traditional markets why did you just go to zero already. I mean this this is such an intense downwards move I think that we probably will see real capitulation on this one before we do get a nice local low. You know it is a blue box going up gonna provide that do we have another swipe down into like 215 ish region. And test the bottom side of it. Maybe yeah. I don’t know of a strong pin on this. It looks like we are trading about three and a half bucks up premarket. I don’t really put too much weight on that. We still got about six hours left or sorry five hours left to go until open. The only way that I call I mean you if you’ve been following this channel for a while now I’ve been moving down the point I recall to sorry to call a reversal. Like every fucking day and we can move it down once again to this point right here about 247 and third spot 3 6. As long as we’re operating below that and I’ll put it in a nice alert right now I’ve stood at 247 as teaser as you know. As long as long as we’re live and blow here I don’t think that there’s any real talk of a reversal. Obviously we do have this very aggressive downwards trend line which is relevant. It’s just so aggressive that I don’t know how much longer is going to hold to be fair. We do have evidence building on a daily as well but we need a local low in place to confirm a local low is not going to happen. Well it’s not yesterday I’ll put it that way unfortunately it looks me like making a slightly lower low at the very least and then potentially have another chance to make one down around there. But after that the after after that I guess the next error that I’d be looking for for potential low to be put in is I mean that is again this is getting just like so deep so deep baby so deep probably around 2 and a 200 and a little bit above 200 but around 200 would be the next major area with bounces in between somewhere right around about 2 0 8 as a well I’d be looking for but I don’t think that that would be a bottom but probably somewhere right around here between 200 and 2 0 3 I think it is somewhere in this area right here and I’ll put in another blue box. It’s like we’re accelerating so far as so so fast to the downside it’s like I need to do like three analysis is a day to keep up with it now. Unfortunately I’m usually asleep during the time that this one is. Jesus Christ. He must be doing a stream too. I wonder if people actually heard that anyways. Maybe he’s fucking long spy. Who knows. If you couldn’t hear that there was like a man screaming like very very violently outside. Now I guess that was hurtful it hurts me more than it hurts you though my friend. Anyways if we do it’s very likely to happen today but if we were to trade above this level right here I would look for extension not just to the 10 symbol but overall to the 21 somewhere right around like 265 to 270 each region. But this is just getting more more aggressive here. Yeah I mean that means say something very profound. The trend is down and the trend is your friend until the end and until the other trend now that’s not. That’s obviously not very helpful I think that this is I think this will probably be a little bit news driven not necessarily news driven but actually fundamentally driven due to the fact that we actually do have a legitimate fundamental threat to humanity right now I suppose. I mean I don’t think that anyone truly thinks that you know everyone is going to die but at least I hope not. But some you know a lot of damage can be done to the financial infrastructure before you know even if not that many people do die anyways. So that’s getting personal right now. All right enough of that. More of this. Let’s see um our site. Let’s talk about a continuation point now. I don’t really have a continuation point. Maybe like now they didn’t close blow to 14. It looks to me like we’re going to test that region regardless of the fact though. So at least another swipe down and maybe has another chance to put in a local Oh but God damn nasty does really make you think though are we going to see decoupling between Bitcoin and traditional markets. We actually are going to a chance here especially if Bitcoin closes as this monthly above like 7000. Jesus Christ man I’ll be powerful gold. I think gold is probably put in the nice top right here. We did talk about the move yesterday likely popping back up to 50/50. We got that move. Now is the time where the bias can change once again. But I would not change my bias towards further upside until we get a daily total closure back about 15 90 ish region at that point. I would not target this blue box right here actually target all the way up all the way up towards our last breakdown somewhere right around here somewhere right around here. We can do a nice box. My boxes my boxes right around here. If that does happen but I think I think what’s more likely is we’re gonna put another local to high right here. Weekly is weekly OK weekly weekly actually could reverse if the weekly closes above fifteen eighty five. I would call a reversal backup to sixteen sixteen seventeen hundred and region and that’s kind of how Bitcoin’s action right now has Bitcoin made a new weekly high above last week. I don’t think so just yet. It’s gotta be gone. It’s gonna be damn close though. Yeah we haven’t got there just yet but if it big if bitcoin is going to follow gold and act like an actual like and act like an actual uncalled Das ad then they’ll be a damn good time to do it anyways. Okay. Anyways um um should we go over some of the other top shit coins in this market. Yeah let’s do that. Yeah let’s do that. What about Mr. Boudreaux the house he’s looking. Do we have any major buys. He’s here to be made. I mean you know S. same thing on this one has a death cross pop up to tens of twenty one. You can. I mean you can you can almost visualize a nice rising channel in here skeptical about this one as well. See the twelve hour looks like twelve hour looks looks like good looks good for some short term continuation though. Same thing with four hour maybe backups like 146. Like what’s like we’re doing. Same thing. Yeah. Forty one and a half for forty two. You know not not not out a question but still same same thing. You know has this has this nice rising channel that we’ve been following and that’s gonna be an issue as long as we’re below basically 40 for some like this. Yeah again not perfect but I don’t want to do and I don’t I do it perfectly primed to do a different time frame. Um what about Ripple has ripple doing. Same thing. Mm hmm. This one actually did prior bullish evidence on the bottom though. No it did not. We did not make new lows. All right fair enough. But again you know if Bitcoin takes a step up 17 17 and three quarters we’ll be looking towards iOS. Same thing yeah. You know but basically most deals around there twenty one is where I’d be looking towards two and a half bucks. Neil. Seven seven and three quarters Tron cash. All right around the prop the price spike. When one and a quarter let’s go look at Lincoln’s Well I should just add a link to the to the list see only one. It’s only all that’s really worth looking at because it might be doing some different to the general market. Link yet they think it’s pop. It’s pretty popping back up here as well. This one’s the only one with actual bullish evidence that I’ve seen thus far coming off the lows. And I do think that it will. Well we only got the test 21 but I do think it’s gonna pop back up here and test it again. So yeah mult most things looking like they do want to have short term continuation the upside so I think I think I will be saying with that I do think that Bitcoin’s pricing to get another test to the upside is somewhere around like ultimately like 70 to 50 to semi 350 ish region. That’s where I start to really look at this price action as if we are going to turn back down. I’ll be a damn good area to do it and get everyone super bullish once again. Now we’ll stop on this because 30 40 minutes long. Sorry about that. My bad anyways. For those of you who still happen to be here I salute you. You fuckin O.G.. Anyways some here would be the most obvious thing for me to get bullish on bitcoin macro as well. Monthly closed back above the twenty one expansion an average which with awake all the way down here to test our prior low holy leaf fuck but even with all the price hedging that we’ve seen thus far still monthly stocks are down still a month the RSI is nose diving. Still if we looked at accumulation distribution they could still be down as well. Yep. I’m still skeptical but short term do we have some more upside. I think it’s I think it’s I think it’s quite possible. Uh I think that’s going to do for right now. I guess I’ll briefly go back on over the longer term time frames the sex for our little closure if it if it happens back above about 67 50 we’ll call it. I would probably look for the for the next number to be hit two to semi 300 ish region and also test the tops out of this rising channel. At that point I would look for at the very least a short term pullback and maybe even higher term time frame such turned back down once again. The two day closure can be absolutely critical as well later tonight. But I won’t be awake for that so it’s not really not really relevant to the short term and then in the most obvious thing for the four for the downside would be just a tick below 6 400 again on on git x. I’d be looking for a move back down a 58 50 to 59 50 ish region by a bounce there and then the bounce probably fails and then we play out the rise and handle talking to the downside so I is going to do it for right now. I will. I’m going to go eat a shit ton of food very very soon and then if I’m feeling well if I’m feeling good I think it’s twitch time baby so with all that said I want to wish you well. Once again take care. And until next time.

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Bitcoin Tale of Two MASSIVE Patterns! March 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis

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Bitcoin Tale of Two MASSIVE Patterns! March 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis

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scottmapess · 5 years

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Bitcoin Tale of Two MASSIVE Patterns! March 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis

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Once again we have a tale of two massive patterns. My. Son. Led me into my. Media. My staff. Me and my son. Me and add me and my son. Met. Me or my son. Me. Welcome back to Crown’s crypto okay. People of Chemin number one over here waking up for a very sunny and late morning over here on a Tuesday morning from Helsinki Finland. Want to wish you well as always and we got a shit ton to talk about. I am freshly out of the doctor’s appointment from the other. From last night and feeling a lot better after that perhaps more a bit later but all is well and good. Just still recovering a little bit. I do think that we’re gonna do a twitch stream a little bit after this perhaps as I have nothing else to do. Quite literally not only are we on quarantine but I literally by doctor’s order cannot even fucking move around all that much so with all that said we have a lot to talk about on price action right now. I want to fall from yesterday’s analysis as while I didn’t think that is very likely we did obviously hit the the the the upwards targets that were kind of based upon those next pivot points and I want to kind of follow up and how that’s changed the picture for now. And now we do have some pretty massive patterns actually being shoved right in front of our faces right in front of our very faces. Anyways before we get to that I do want to say that the Crown trade application is right trading as it is right in your face right here and it can be had for when I’m sent free at Epcot crown the net and in Burgundy folks in a big amount on this today. So we’ve been so we’ve been following these numbers for the last well really for ever since I’ve since I have this up but but more importantly we’ve been following these numbers for the last week or so with regards to the open interest as the open interest has still count is still has still come down as we did get a little bit about 5 million for a brief second early in the week about 550 million on that last down move. Now going back up in price action while open interest goes down in volume is still coming down as volatility also comes down. We now have a narrative that fits from an underlying market dynamics perspective that fits into the patterns that are going to be looking at plus just a general technical analysis. Also I forgot to fucking mention it once again. Jesus Christ man because we are because it is this quarantine week I suppose and I don’t know if it’s going to be ending anytime soon unfortunately. We did it. We did decide to extend the discounts on all the programs make sure that they are outside make sure to watch the videos on them if you are into them then they’re going to explain who they’re for how to get the most value out of them. And as always with any one of these programs I won’t go too deep into the details of them right now that’s what the videos are for but I do want to say make sure that if you are considering them make sure to take advantage of the free content on this on this channel first because it is literally can more than 3000 hours plus of free content and that’s pretty good. That’s probably what most people about to the level that they want to be anyways so you don’t need to invest and make a massive time or financial investment in those Anyways let’s get down to it right and over here at La starting off with our lovely chart that we had yesterday on Jeet X and as you can see we did. We did head back down to that to our horizontal routing over here. But contrary to what to what my bias was yesterday I said that we were likely to have a bounceback around here and head back into the low 6000. However I was looking for a rejection there especially a alongside this blue box territory right here about sixty 400. Obviously bitcoin has exceeded that that area now and that’s going to initiate and kind of define the next sort of set of targets as well as the next set of bases right here. Now here’s the thing and here’s what this analysis is all going to hinge on so going to show both the Bush and bearish narrative for this. And then the critical pivot points for this. You know for for these next target. So first and foremost the most important level right now is our last local high run over here. You can you know I’ll do it on like a four hour total closing basis just because that does seem to be a good timeframe from you know not too low over time frame but not too high of a timeframe that gives us you know a nice little act area of action that you can see right here. As long as we are closing for our dollars below this area below our last local high which is 67 50 ish region or maybe this is a little bit higher than that actually we could we can conservatively say it’s about sixty eight hundred in fact I’ll make a little bit of a zone right here for now. I do. Sorry. As long as your closing below is below this there is no continuation be looking at of course. Yes we did get a week above that’s fine but as long as we’re not closing for adults above there even to our is probably gets it as well. I would not be looking for what I’m about to describe next. So we have to delineate between low timeframes medium timeframes and high macro timeframes where we’re looking at right now is low timeframe bullshit. So with that said let’s go into our side that was actually a 10 hour that we’re looking at. But for our you know pretty much the same read and over here as well. In fact we can move these areas of action down. In fact this actually fits the narrative significantly better. As as as we are testing that area right now as you can see so we do get a nice Wick above but no closures as of yet although we’re definitely have a chance to close above on this next for our data which is going to be the next twelve hour delay closed as well. And if you are using the 10:00 hour as I just was then we could use those same numbers about 67 50 to 60 100 each region. Again they’re pretty damn close here regardless of the fact. So I would just be going blue box to blue box in this current trajectory. Now what I wanted to what I wanted to start this off with is that because of the price action yesterday we do have a new pattern going on right here now don’t we. We do have a nice little falling channel which is typically going to be is off to the upside as far as as far as statistics statistical analysis does go. Actually maybe I should be doing this on it. Maybe I should be doing this on a two hour it’s gonna be about the same regardless of that but a little bit more precise a little bit more precise here. Anyways there we go. That I think that’s good enough and we can make a mesh move on this. We actually have initiated the upside of this now. Now haven’t we as we did close but this blue box territory right here which would be of course what’s called resolving that to the upside. Now this does initiate a move from a measure move basically back around a prior week high right around about 7000 bucks. So technically speaking should be looking for a move within that region. This is a more conservative estimate actually because we could just as easily draw this in the same way. Right around here which would a long gate that target about another hundred bucks higher I believe somewhere right around about 70 50 to seventy one hundred seventy one fiftieth ish region. Now this is what is interesting from this narrative though because while we do have a short term bullish formation right here in the formation of a following channel which right now is potentially could turn into a little bit of a swing filler pattern especially if we start to close for our dodos back below. This higher low right here at about six five hundred but we’ll get to that later. Remember over the last few days we have been working on this as well. Unfortunately or fortunately for the Bears. Unfortunately for the Bulls we do still have this massive rising channel right over here so it’s a tale of two channels. We have both a falling channel which typically bullish which we already got the Bears the resolution to the upside right there and you could even say that this target was perhaps even front ran which I think is I think that’s relevant. And then we also have a bear the greater bearish pattern right here which we are unfortunately in in beneath or in between and beneath. So I I’m I’m operating off of like low hours of sleep. I still feel like shit by the way but I feel I feel good enough to to do some march do some actual twitching later perhaps. But you know but as it stands we do have this. Well let’s actually draw this right maybe we do have this rising general technically Bear Flag still in the making as well which we are living below as long as we are below about 70 300 a Saudi 400 ish region right over here. Now going back to what we began this video with we realize that open interest has been coming down this whole way as price action has been going up slowly and volume has been more or less steadily on the decline in volatility further confirming that factor as we do see a nice steady decline coming in all the way from you know essentially March 13th like Doomsday and going back on over here you know if we were to follow the trend line on it and if we were to maybe even bring this around a four hour out imagine. Yes. That’s exactly what you’d expect. It’s curtailing its contracting and that further confirms the look on this and the analysis from the open interest perspective that I still would have an overall bearish bias on the greater formation here. I’m still very skeptical on this price action. You know. So it’s essentially reverting the whole the whole cycle back from Bear to bull this quickly I think that this is perhaps or a sorry it’s not perhaps it’s very very likely shorts closing doing all this price action. I say this this chart is so fucking convoluted I apologize about this. We can get rid of a lot of this stuff we can get rid of the short term falling channel right here and all these other levels are important and I actually do want to keep them in because they likely do hold weight over time. If anything we could get rid of this guy right here for now. Maybe get rid of this guy. There we go. Okay. That cleans it up just a smidge in there but anyway so that would still put in the bias of this being essentially a redistribution pattern over the long period of time which does fit the pattern there which does fit the structure narrative. Does that fit the open interest narrative would just fit the volume narrative which does fit the. It’s like like a fuckin robot right now and the volatility narrative as well of course. And that is essentially available as long as we are below about 73 to twenty four hundred. But that also means that we can rally up to about 73 to only 400 as well and still not really do anything all that crazy from that perspective. Now does that match up with anything else that we’re looking at in fact. Well it kind of does because that would be around the measured move if we were to take a more aggressive measured move on this baby of what we saw and I had I had Porsche to Ron before I wanted it right around the last prior little spike high right there which is what we got. You can see that this measure move is more or less coming in line with the topside resistance of this proverbial flag formation. I would say it’s more of a channel than anything just because well if we do make it into a bear flag it’s just going to it I think it’s kind of I think it’s kind of gone on for a little bit too long for that to really fit but. But more importantly as long as you blow this area about it over here that does still fit the narrative unfortunately so I do think that bitcoin can very easily have some more upside here especially if we close this next for our dollar above our last prior height about 60 700 on a four hour total closing basis and especially above about 60 70 50 if we if we closed above there which this can be the 12 hour total closing basis. I would look for likely extension all the way up to maybe 70 150 to maybe even 70 400 ish region right here. I mean it’s getting quite it’s not that’s not very precise so it’s not. So it’s obviously not very helpful. But as long as we are within the bounds of this region I do think that we likely are looking at redistribution but that could also include the five had all moved to the upside. I do not believe change around my overall perspective on Bitcoin from bearish to bullish intel. I mean there is a lot of ways of doing this but if I wanted to be as aggressive as possible I would probably wait for a weekly closed above Sunny 500 if we could do that that would be obvious. Even a daily closed above Sunny 500 is quite obvious. Or or just a daily close above above the top of the channel formation which is again it’s coming around 73 50 to sunny 400 ish region. So Bitcoin sells a lot of work to do here but it could very easily have a little bit more upside. The problem with this also is though is that we are creating some hidden bearish evidence on some time frames that actually do matter like a daily. You see that daily RSI is getting well above where we were even on the 10th of March which was this breakdown right here when Bitcoin was hanging around 8000 bucks so that’s going to be an issue. You know all the way up basically until a thousand dollars unfortunately you know as suit you know assuming that our side. Well the other is obviously way higher than that so yes it will be an issue pretty much no matter what. So I just want to show that while things are looking a little bit a little bit nice right here and we and we actually did and while we did talk about these scenarios yesterday while I didn’t necessarily think that they were very likely to happen. Still you know more planning to come with this territory. So it’s a little bit a little bit difficult of the situation here. You also can see that perhaps we might even be working on some some some regular bearish divergence on our lower timeframes like a 4 hour. But while we are here on the lower term time frames I just want to also show that some momentum also is asking to get a little bit hotter. Got for our stocks getting way up there but that’s OK. They can still they can still another stab higher. I would imagine that around the you know the seventh a little bit above 7000 7000 dollar region they should start to get pretty damn hot. Three our gonna be about the same thing we should see these more or less in line two are going to be the same thing as well in hourly kind of flip flopping around here so I do think that we prolly have another drive higher is what they douche is what they do suggest we do have enough momentum here for of drive higher at least and then I would be very very very very defensive in the in the in the lower 7000 or region especially around 70 150 ish region I believe that does match up also as also with our two day look. Yes indeed. OK. So this is what I’m very concerned with as well coming in that region remember the two day that we’ve been looking out for for quite some time. We do have the two day death cross still looming. Now of course with this last upwards move it’s obviously going to be a lot less of a it’s going to be lot less of a slope. So it will. It will kind of postpone the death cross on this perhaps even indefinitely especially if we get back above seventy nine hundred bucks. That’s quite far away right now. But fair enough you know that you never know in bitcoin land blights you know as as this area does come around. We do see the 20 when I speak to an average Hain out where on this timeframe right around Sony 350 ish region. So Bitcoin did pop up to some 350 ish region test of this region essentially the top side of that rising channel formation and we still see open interest essentially coming down or remain at flat as well and in volume still kind of on that steady decline. I would look at that as a test of the two day deal to death cross right over here. Also pattern formations and and I would actually be interested in a position at that point in time also because it’s you know it’s relatively easy to manage and like as with anything it’s game Massachusetts doesn’t mean that it’s actually going to 1 percent work out. But I would be comfortable putting on some risk there just point a position as ever really played a position in quite some time here. Other than that what also I want to say do we have a two day closing tonight. I believe we do. Yes we do. So if we close the two day tonight and here’s kind of like the Don’t Say foolproof way of doing it there’s no foolproof way of doing anything but if if I really wanted if I really wanted to be what’s the word that I’m looking for confident. Confidence bad word but back confident that we are going to reach into the low 7000 Daraa region which this will come down again once we get this new two day total closure which are going to happen tonight at 8:00 p.m. Eastern time. If we close above the 10 simple I do believe that we will test it. We will very very likely test it at that point in time. It’ll be coming in somewhere right around thirty three hundred member that is essentially the top side of our channel resistance right here. I have this at about 70 to 50 so close enough is close enough especially when talking about a two day that’s fine. And that’s also gonna be meeting up with the next measured move off of the short term falling trend that we saw that is that is showing probably that we do have a little bit a little bit more bullish momentum which is also mediated by the lower term timeframes much more sort of saying that you know we likely have a little bit more a little bit more upside here to go as well so I do think that bitcoin probably has short term upside by the way we do have the twin expansion image on the foiled timeframe coming in right around 70 to 50 as well. So I do think that we prevent other stab to the upside but I would be defensive against against it chasm because still the greater picture is not the picture of health and fitness unfortunately. So again you know I know a lot of a lot like if I found to be wrong about some like this I’m I’m sure that I may get a shit ton of very mean and nasty comments which is fine. You know I totally understand that but but for the people having to give a fucking and for the people who have been here for a long time you understand that tentacle in our soul about statistics and with these sorts of things. You know I do need it as a trader I need to see confirmations or least well you don’t really need there’s multiple ways of trading of course but my but my particular style of trading is that I want to you know wait for wait for confirmations yes it’ll make me a little bit on the sluggish end sometimes but it does keep me out of it does keep me out of out of searching for longs during 2013 and searching for shorts during the middle of 2019 right here and more recently four furlongs once again. So I do like that but this next two day deal little closure is gonna be very very important. Now if we do start closing two days above sorry not the not two days but the two day chart above the twenty one right here which again it’s about 73 three each region will call. That would also be a good a damn good early indication or maybe not so early but the earliest for myself that I that it’s time to change round the bias. We’re gonna we’re very likely to pop back up above 8000 and this is all just like some very nasty shit how movements in the way that only Bitcoin can really do it. And perhaps if we want to bring up like the biggest possible hope him that we could think of then we’re doing some like this like some sort of massive Well I guess it’s not gonna make much sense on linear scale although I should probably start using that but it would make more sense from a log scale where we could be doing some sort of massive symmetrical triangle coming off the lows which for now the narrative does work on that and we actually are from a long term perspective getting closer and closer to the resolution point of this which I would say becomes extremely likely to break somewhere right around here right around June July. Late June early July is where I’ll be looking towards. I do like how this match up from a fib perspective as well we got the 6 1 8 at the breakout point to the upset at ninety 550 and we got well somewhere right around here we’d have the 76 right around our breakdown point at that at that time frame as well so for kind of making assumptions here to be fair. But you know just want to show you know just want to show that you know it is in the cards. So fair enough. You know fair enough. But here’s the thing still. You know while we do have the two day death cross looming and can be reverted especially if we start closing to date it was back above the 21 at 73 33 three fifty. We also do have the weekly 21 and 55 right over here and I do look at a lot of this price action especially as volume is kind of coming down in price sections popping back up to test around these around these major moving average crosses as the test of that cross which is going to provide insight into the efficacy of that cross are the bottom I was actually on the same side. Are they in switch on their sell programs around that area. That’s the insight we’re gonna get in that we’re gonna get clarity on probably probably by end of week I’d say. And and that’s where things start to become a lot more interesting from a long term trading perspective as I have not I haven’t really taken like a long term position in a while now I’ve probably been taking any positions cause I’ve been hopped up on fucking pain pills a shit ton recently for anyone who’s new here I just had a I just had a back surgery and it’s pretty nasty and it’s pretty disgusting and I just went back to the doctor last night and they told me the most enlightening thing of all time because there’s like a massive hole in my back and basically they said well you can you know you could you know you could use like some sort of swallow there’s some shit or you could try putting a tampon in them like what the fuck are you shit what hey hey doc what the fuck you to say. She told me to put Tamils in my back. Well it is quite engine ingenious but it does make me feel a little bit less manly than I typically do with my raspy lesbian voice. So looking at all this price action about it over here I do want to remain cognizant. Also the fact that weekly stocks have been nosedive in this whole way and they’ve got plenty of room down for the higher term time frames. Not only that but weekly RSI is just popping back up to test around the bearish controls and as it is right now. So these things still make me very very apprehensive. As far as a greater picture goes. But we haven’t really talked too much about the lower term timeframes just yet. So I think it’s time for me to go back down into the lower term time frames I think we can use this g tax chart right here. I think it’s pretty good. And let��s talk about the low term time frame. So I’ve only been talking about high end macro time time frames which actually do have a chance of probably doing some very interesting reverse. So variance in behavior is within this probably within this week but by now we can go down to the low term time frame now that we have all that mapped out and just and just talk about blue boxes and level by level so first and foremost I would say that some there is very very very very very obvious pivot point right around here right around 6 400. Because we are above 6 400. On the short term time frames is you know is the bias to the upside. I mean like here’s the problem is that I should have gone over this yesterday because 60 400 I did not think was cap broken about yesterday but once it did that initiated our next move to this blue box right over here. Becka prior high I believe I did say that yesterday though. So I hopefully I can feel good about that. No it doesn’t matter what you feel good about it only it only matters what you positions on four. But here is a thing. If we close above this blue box that we’re currently operating above right now we will create another higher high on the four hour and I believe we would also confirm a higher hang the 12 bar as well. Yeah. Yeah we would. Yes yes indeed we would. I know they’re gonna be closing at the same time so this next for our total closure of 8 hour our site is actually not a meeting now in eight hours but four hour and twelve hour can be pretty damn important because if that does happen I would look for a retest. Back around our prior Spike high at about 7000 bucks a little bit north of 7000 bucks and then realistically I don’t really see any reason I don’t really see anything in Bitcoin’s way between there and basically like 70 to 50 to semi 350 ish region. That’s where I do think hunting behavior and trapping behavior can can come back again for this asset. So that’s what I keep an eye out for right now as far as a lower term time frames go. As we said momentum positives are still still okay here. Still a little bit more upside but in out and out essentially be cautious here on the low timeframes and we can get rid of this one too. Okay that’s good that’s actually great. Let me get rid of this blue box right here it’s not it’s important but it’s not too important to get rid of this guy right here as well. Okay so as long as bitcoin does remain above 60 400 you know I’d be more or less cautionary Ashley bullish on the very short term time frames although I’m not trading this at all at all right now. Fuck that if we do if we do start to break 60 400 even on like a two hour dollar closure even just taking out this spike low right here actually. Which conveniently enough is right around 60 400. If we if we take out that Spike low I would look for and I would look for another move back down all the way to the top to this little this little block territory right here actually. Very short term time frame stuff but it is relevant especially to what we’re talking about because it’s not only going to be this this little block right here but also the bottom side support of our potential flag formation. So I would be looking for another bounce off this region. This is coming in right around about 58 50 to 59 50 ish region right here. After that I go back into complete. What’s it called How to Speak English. Fucking God damn it man. I swear it like sometimes that is completely forgot the these pain pills are like the worst thing ever. I absolutely despise taking them. They are pretty fun but I do despise taking them anyways. If we you know if we came back down to this region I will look for an initial short term time frame bounce. I don’t have any real targets on that bounce just as long as it doesn’t get back above 60 400. It is fair game and I’d look for that bounce get sold into and then we’d actually resolve this massive rising channel right here to the downside. Once we get that then we can actually have another measure move. And now that we really have a solid three tests on both sides we can see this this this trend over here is for the volume not for anything else then we can actually see that we would have a measured viewpoint it’s all the way down. Basically decide we need to position this a little bit better because it would make. Like where would it actually be maybe somewhere right around here. This way this would actually invoke a measured move all the way down to the low for thousands that forty two hundred ish target that that I still think is likely bitcoin gets into the reason why say that is because again if if bitcoin is going to reverse off this formation I think it’s quite unlikely. Just from a historical standpoint the reason why I say that again is because we’ve never seen. We’ve never seen a reversal on Bitcoin as far as the macro or even the higher term time frames without without bullish evidence on at the very least the daily. And do we have any bullish evidence as it is right now. No. If we came back down to forty two hundred would we create bullish evidence. Yeah absolutely would we. I mean very likely and let’s be just absolutely shouters which would be. That would be pretty problematic but we’ll get to that bridge if we cross it and and then. But you know. But going back into the time sorry into the history of Bitcoin we’ve never even seen like a major reversal without bullish evidence on the daily. And I’m talking and just for example right here I’m talking about this one right here having two drives before about a 3000 4000 dollar rally from sixty five to ten five so four thousand dollar rally we had this guy right here know the three drives three thousand dollar rally right after that and it works for the downside as well. This one I’m having three drops the tops of right here before 10 sorry 14000 down to. I mean you could say that we even where we are right now and then on the you know like on our current cycle low at about thirty one hundred right here one two three drives. Same thing on the high of twenty eighteen running over here and there were several instances of more of of divergences during these during these parish pumps essentially the before that we have to go all the way back down to of course 2014 2015 as I was our last major reversal and you just see the same thing here as well as as well as 2013 and even all the way back to 2010 and 2011. So. So that is pretty consistent with Bitcoin’s history and we’ve never we’ve never seen a full on markets like a reversal without without bullish or bearish evidence that actually works on both sides on the daily and we do not have that as it is right now on on Bitcoin. So I am very I’m very skeptical here. I’m a little bit stumped with this price section and there’s going to be. And right now I need to see it say a healthy amount of I don’t know. And I don’t and I don’t really have like a full on bias right now. My bias boner is very very very very very very weak. So unfortunately you know does Bitcoin talk about where we are right now. Just Bitcoin move to 70 300 maybe top out there. Does Bitcoin completely shatter expectations. I mean expletives terrible to have of course but does Bitcoin essentially reverse the trend and make me just feel a complete fucking moron by getting back above like 70 350 and closing a daily above there. I’m open to all these possibilities. So I want to not have too much of a bias right now. I know where I want to be taking my trades. I know what my risk is more importantly and that’s really all that trading has to be don’t have to know where in the end to go just have to come up with a nice little trade plans. But with regards to that we can’t come up with probabilities. Let’s get ahead let’s go back on over here. Now I would say this I would say this if we do close this next for our deal for for our dollar below the blue box basically in line with our last prior Hi this is going to look a little bit more like a top right here we’ll have a nice double top and we’ll have bearish evidence present on the for our total time frame as well as well as making a nice rising channel here albeit not perfect but maybe maybe we could try formulate this bet on a 12 hour. Yeah. In fact we’ve got a right here. Yeah. Yeah in fact we got it right here. Okay. So it does work on the twelve and by the way the 12 hours can be close in that same time as a four hour and same sort of issues right here. So. Fair enough. So yeah. Okay. Fuck what was I just on. Yes that’s right. Okay. Lower term time frame. Let’s go back to the lower term timeframes. Bring up the areas of action. This this one again right here 60 400. Only relevant to the very short term if we do break to the downside or even just close or even just tick below it. Actually I would look for extension all the way down about fifty nine fifty nine fifty to 58 50. Price more bounce here and then and then carry this on over. Now if we do close closes for our deal above we’re basically about where we are right now. I would look for probably extension all the way to the two hundred around so many 250 to something 300 ish region. Let’s look at probabilities to kind of come up with an idea of what’s most likely. It’s obvious gonna be the upside it’s obviously gonna be the fucking upside. No shit. Wow enlightening information ground you fucking moron. I agree. I am a fucking moron looking at this right here would you see the tops out of the first aviation where presently speaking right around 70 chief 50 so I do like that as in line with the top side of our we’ll just we’ll just refer to it as our flag formation. The rising channel that we kind of open up this video with by the same token to the downside of what do we see that the bottom side the first aviation ride around 58 50. The bottom side. Blue Box. So is it likely that we confirm a reversal above that critical region to the upside today. Well less than 16 percent chance is it likely that we confirm that we could confirm a continuation pattern to the downside below fifty eight fifty fifty nine hundred well less than 16 percent chance. So it is kind of neutral as far as the bigger picture goes. But of course when we’re talking about probabilities we also want to be looking at the low term time frames as well and we can see very obviously that’s closing above. So where’s where’s my little pain. Hey where are you. Where’d you go Molly. Must be. Must have forced it away. Oh it’s actually right here. Okay there we go. Nice. All right. Got it. No problem. Okay let’s see. Let’s let’s input our single side. Target 2. I think I think 67 50 would do it on the next for our total closure which is by the way going to be the same thing as the next twelve our total closure which is closing in two hours and 47 minutes and 45 seconds. And what would our probability of closing above that region be. Actually pretty fucking high almost 47 percent so pretty damn good. What’s our probability of closing below that target which would essentially look like make this look like a rejection once again and basically dump looks like a double top also bearish divergence president as well. Well the probability for that is 53 percent so a little bit more likely to be fair. However I do think that well that that that that is quite relevant so no I won’t. I won’t say that. I think the most obvious thing that we could be looking at for the downside is just any sort of a four hour total closure below eight hundred is very likely. Not just I mean all these blue boxes are likely to be bounces to the downside but I do believe that ultimately we’d find out we’d find our footing somewhere down around 40 to under this region. That’s well and far away. I’m just checking out the time right now. Looks like we’re 30 minutes in already. What the fuck. How did this even happen. Nobody knows. I also want to check out the twelve hour momentum all sodas. He’s one man so lovely. And what you see right here. So we see two things we do see a sport trend line forming over the long term connected with our last few lows coming in early or sorry late fed early March of 20 20 of this year and then our last major low at the 10th before major breakdown and then our last major low at the March 13th at about 40 two hundred ish region or forty five hundred on a daily closing basis. Not only that we do have a competing trend line going on right over here potentially to touch this does not make a trend but you can kind of if we were to draw regression. Actually no it’s it’s not gonna work like that. OK. I call myself out that’s wrong Crown you’re fucking wrong. It’s like I’m having an internal discussion and I’m both wrong and right at the same time it’s like fucking Shorten’s Schrödinger’s fuckin schizophrenic. Anyways we’re curling back up right now doesn’t look all that strong to me but I would look for potential you know potential pressure right around this point as well how far does precession get around that point. Well either why where you here right now or it gets all the way up to the top of the next resistance so that’s sensing my look right now I think I think we either top out here or you move up another few hundred but outside not few hundred like five or ten bucks it’s like seventy two hundred seventy three out of this region and properly put in the top there and then if we’re gonna play at some downside that would be the good area to do it from the obvious areas that would further enhance that buys would be for the short term break it back down below six forward is taking below there initiate a move back down around here for another four to six five and our plays very very trainable very very nice or or or closing the sex for our on on a ha ha. I mean that’s how hard hard to hit an uptrend hard to hate an uptrend maybe fair and then and then like the obvious you know return back to the lows bias would be if we if we close for our doubles bluffs 58 58 50 ish region would be good for me. OK. All right this analysis will self-destruct in about five minutes so it’s completely useless anyway. What else do we have. Do we want to look at traditional Argus. Yes sure why not. Still following the downtrend all rallies fail and direct as fuck. And now we are on my. This is like this is the blue box that I did not think was going to get hit anytime soon gets it the next fucking week. Nice nice one traditional markets why did you just go to zero already. I mean this this is such an intense downwards move I think that we probably will see real capitulation on this one before we do get a nice local low. You know it is a blue box going up gonna provide that do we have another swipe down into like 215 ish region. And test the bottom side of it. Maybe yeah. I don’t know of a strong pin on this. It looks like we are trading about three and a half bucks up premarket. I don’t really put too much weight on that. We still got about six hours left or sorry five hours left to go until open. The only way that I call I mean you if you’ve been following this channel for a while now I’ve been moving down the point I recall to sorry to call a reversal. Like every fucking day and we can move it down once again to this point right here about 247 and third spot 3 6. As long as we’re operating below that and I’ll put it in a nice alert right now I’ve stood at 247 as teaser as you know. As long as long as we’re live and blow here I don’t think that there’s any real talk of a reversal. Obviously we do have this very aggressive downwards trend line which is relevant. It’s just so aggressive that I don’t know how much longer is going to hold to be fair. We do have evidence building on a daily as well but we need a local low in place to confirm a local low is not going to happen. Well it’s not yesterday I’ll put it that way unfortunately it looks me like making a slightly lower low at the very least and then potentially have another chance to make one down around there. But after that the after after that I guess the next error that I’d be looking for for potential low to be put in is I mean that is again this is getting just like so deep so deep baby so deep probably around 2 and a 200 and a little bit above 200 but around 200 would be the next major area with bounces in between somewhere right around about 2 0 8 as a well I’d be looking for but I don’t think that that would be a bottom but probably somewhere right around here between 200 and 2 0 3 I think it is somewhere in this area right here and I’ll put in another blue box. It’s like we’re accelerating so far as so so fast to the downside it’s like I need to do like three analysis is a day to keep up with it now. Unfortunately I’m usually asleep during the time that this one is. Jesus Christ. He must be doing a stream too. I wonder if people actually heard that anyways. Maybe he’s fucking long spy. Who knows. If you couldn’t hear that there was like a man screaming like very very violently outside. Now I guess that was hurtful it hurts me more than it hurts you though my friend. Anyways if we do it’s very likely to happen today but if we were to trade above this level right here I would look for extension not just to the 10 symbol but overall to the 21 somewhere right around like 265 to 270 each region. But this is just getting more more aggressive here. Yeah I mean that means say something very profound. The trend is down and the trend is your friend until the end and until the other trend now that’s not. That’s obviously not very helpful I think that this is I think this will probably be a little bit news driven not necessarily news driven but actually fundamentally driven due to the fact that we actually do have a legitimate fundamental threat to humanity right now I suppose. I mean I don’t think that anyone truly thinks that you know everyone is going to die but at least I hope not. But some you know a lot of damage can be done to the financial infrastructure before you know even if not that many people do die anyways. So that’s getting personal right now. All right enough of that. More of this. Let’s see um our site. Let’s talk about a continuation point now. I don’t really have a continuation point. Maybe like now they didn’t close blow to 14. It looks to me like we’re going to test that region regardless of the fact though. So at least another swipe down and maybe has another chance to put in a local Oh but God damn nasty does really make you think though are we going to see decoupling between Bitcoin and traditional markets. We actually are going to a chance here especially if Bitcoin closes as this monthly above like 7000. Jesus Christ man I’ll be powerful gold. I think gold is probably put in the nice top right here. We did talk about the move yesterday likely popping back up to 50/50. We got that move. Now is the time where the bias can change once again. But I would not change my bias towards further upside until we get a daily total closure back about 15 90 ish region at that point. I would not target this blue box right here actually target all the way up all the way up towards our last breakdown somewhere right around here somewhere right around here. We can do a nice box. My boxes my boxes right around here. If that does happen but I think I think what’s more likely is we’re gonna put another local to high right here. Weekly is weekly OK weekly weekly actually could reverse if the weekly closes above fifteen eighty five. I would call a reversal backup to sixteen sixteen seventeen hundred and region and that’s kind of how Bitcoin’s action right now has Bitcoin made a new weekly high above last week. I don’t think so just yet. It’s gotta be gone. It’s gonna be damn close though. Yeah we haven’t got there just yet but if it big if bitcoin is going to follow gold and act like an actual like and act like an actual uncalled Das ad then they’ll be a damn good time to do it anyways. Okay. Anyways um um should we go over some of the other top shit coins in this market. Yeah let’s do that. Yeah let’s do that. What about Mr. Boudreaux the house he’s looking. Do we have any major buys. He’s here to be made. I mean you know S. same thing on this one has a death cross pop up to tens of twenty one. You can. I mean you can you can almost visualize a nice rising channel in here skeptical about this one as well. See the twelve hour looks like twelve hour looks looks like good looks good for some short term continuation though. Same thing with four hour maybe backups like 146. Like what’s like we’re doing. Same thing. Yeah. Forty one and a half for forty two. You know not not not out a question but still same same thing. You know has this has this nice rising channel that we’ve been following and that’s gonna be an issue as long as we’re below basically 40 for some like this. Yeah again not perfect but I don’t want to do and I don’t I do it perfectly primed to do a different time frame. Um what about Ripple has ripple doing. Same thing. Mm hmm. This one actually did prior bullish evidence on the bottom though. No it did not. We did not make new lows. All right fair enough. But again you know if Bitcoin takes a step up 17 17 and three quarters we’ll be looking towards iOS. Same thing yeah. You know but basically most deals around there twenty one is where I’d be looking towards two and a half bucks. Neil. Seven seven and three quarters Tron cash. All right around the prop the price spike. When one and a quarter let’s go look at Lincoln’s Well I should just add a link to the to the list see only one. It’s only all that’s really worth looking at because it might be doing some different to the general market. Link yet they think it’s pop. It’s pretty popping back up here as well. This one’s the only one with actual bullish evidence that I’ve seen thus far coming off the lows. And I do think that it will. Well we only got the test 21 but I do think it’s gonna pop back up here and test it again. So yeah mult most things looking like they do want to have short term continuation the upside so I think I think I will be saying with that I do think that Bitcoin’s pricing to get another test to the upside is somewhere around like ultimately like 70 to 50 to semi 350 ish region. That’s where I start to really look at this price action as if we are going to turn back down. I’ll be a damn good area to do it and get everyone super bullish once again. Now we’ll stop on this because 30 40 minutes long. Sorry about that. My bad anyways. For those of you who still happen to be here I salute you. You fuckin O.G.. Anyways some here would be the most obvious thing for me to get bullish on bitcoin macro as well. Monthly closed back above the twenty one expansion an average which with awake all the way down here to test our prior low holy leaf fuck but even with all the price hedging that we’ve seen thus far still monthly stocks are down still a month the RSI is nose diving. Still if we looked at accumulation distribution they could still be down as well. Yep. I’m still skeptical but short term do we have some more upside. I think it’s I think it’s I think it’s quite possible. Uh I think that’s going to do for right now. I guess I’ll briefly go back on over the longer term time frames the sex for our little closure if it if it happens back above about 67 50 we’ll call it. I would probably look for the for the next number to be hit two to semi 300 ish region and also test the tops out of this rising channel. At that point I would look for at the very least a short term pullback and maybe even higher term time frame such turned back down once again. The two day closure can be absolutely critical as well later tonight. But I won’t be awake for that so it’s not really not really relevant to the short term and then in the most obvious thing for the four for the downside would be just a tick below 6 400 again on on git x. I’d be looking for a move back down a 58 50 to 59 50 ish region by a bounce there and then the bounce probably fails and then we play out the rise and handle talking to the downside so I is going to do it for right now. I will. I’m going to go eat a shit ton of food very very soon and then if I’m feeling well if I’m feeling good I think it’s twitch time baby so with all that said I want to wish you well. Once again take care. And until next time.

The post Bitcoin Tale of Two MASSIVE Patterns! March 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis appeared first on Cryptosharks.net.

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austin-and-sammo-blog · 8 years

Text

Journal Entry -- 13th Month

It has certainly been a strange week. I've been something I'm not. I have been hardly productive, I have spent an enormous amount of time on my phone. Yasmine got back in contact with me finally which has been a massive relief. In fact, for the most part this week has been wonderful. I have felt very much like I'm back at peace with my life with Austin, Mattie, and Yasmine. I helped Matt again this week, and I think I did well and he thanked me, which definitely made me feel good. I made amazing progress in counseling this week, I feel like I'm finally getting answers. We touched on my past socially, and it seems that I have really really based my social progress using means with which I work towards my concrete goals, and it has become apparent that that is simply not the case. We talked about how everywhere I've been I've been met with a social cycle where I leave just as soon as real relationships were coming into being, and then I would leave and they would stay stagnant where they were, only the greatest of those relationships standing the test of time apart. We are going to explore in the coming weeks why I've been blaming myself and allowing this to toll my self confidence. But simply understanding this complex has been an immense relief, I feel like I understand myself more, and thus I can work with myself more. I wanted this to be sympathetic towards myself. Perhaps it will be, but it will do so in a better way. But I cannot write this about myself without acknowledging all the good things I have to be grateful for. I woke up today ready to make it a bad day. I woke up today and focused right on how Austin hadn't replied to the snap I sent last night. I made an overwhelming deal out of it. I waited to see if he would ever reply on his own and then there came a point in time when I realized that wasn't going to happen, and I started to shake with nervousness and anxiety and I confronted him about it and instantly turned on myself because I realized the only bad aspect of that situation was the way I made it out to be. But even so Austin was tremendously understanding of it, he admitted to his mistake and was sorry for it, that I definitely believed. He called me to make sure I was alright. I love him so much. I have a father who kept his word today, giving me the money I needed to purchase my transcripts to add to my transfer applications. I need to be grateful for my mother who sent me money in a Valentine's day card that means I can still get a haircut next week. I have an amazing friend with whom I spend my time with here, Mattie has made SMU more comfortable for me and I would easily be in a terrifying place if she were not here. I'm grateful for my brother, I think we are more alike than anyone else, he is someone who understands and I can go to with things I'm interested in. I'm grateful for God, who has brought these amazing people into my life. I'm grateful because there have been so many mistakes that could have been worse, so many blessings that could've easily passed me by. I'm forever grateful to that Man who has made me who I am and the life I'm surrounded with. Now I can step back and pity myself. Now that I know my life is actually pretty good and that I have amazing people who are there for me. Sometimes I feel quite alone, many times I feel that way here at SMU. When Austin is with people I constantly think, "why don't I have that?" I get impatient with myself because he has already been able to make some amazing friends at ECU. The counselor helped me realize that my experience at Havelock, where I found my best friends within a couple of weeks, has set my expectations far too high for the other places I've gone. Williston and SMU have both been tremendous cases of disillusionment. But it could be worse. I still have people in my life who care about me, all over the country. My social progress was never hindered, it was simply spread out amongst far too many places. That is why I'm transferring, it's high time I settle down and make some real progress. That's what I really want, and I'm in the process. I like to dream of my life at UNC Chapel Hill. A nice college town with the feel of ECU, with the tremendous opportunity of their award winning business school, being close to Austin seeing him every couple of weekends. Getting to spend our anniversaries better like we've hardly had the chance to before. I sometimes think about how Austin and I have flipped sides. His experiences at ECU seem to be a very mirror image of my last year at Williston. It frustrated me because he seems so strong now, and when he doesn't reply I suppose that's a factor in why I feel hurt. It seems to me that he isn't replying very much because his life is better, and I focus so much on it because my situation is not so fortunate. But while that may have been true at one point, and may in part be true now, I certainly have a better situation now. I have my friend Mattie and the friends I'm meeting through her. I have so much in this life and I take it for granted many times, when I know for certain that there were points in my life when I wished for all the things I have now. I have focused quite a bit in my life about things and people I don't have. That is no way to live. I remember my senior year of Williston being one of the best in my life. Why is that though? Because I also distinctly remember many afternoons between classes and sports when I would go back to my room and nap or cry. I remember many nights when I would be up for hours on end, struggling not to sob because I had too much work to get done. I was sad because I didn't have what other people had. I didn't feel like I belonged with the group of friends I was with. I didn't feel like many people at that school liked me, and there was a constant pressure of that. My work was my distraction, my sports kept me sane and sociable. I remember my life at Havelock as some of the best times of my life. I remember all the great times I spent with my friend group and how much fun I had. It seems I had forgotten that New Year's eve when I didn't want to make it to the next year. I forgot all those nights I cried because I didn't have Zachariah. I remember becoming mentally sick over him...doing horrible things that I will not even let myself think of. I remember one day I went back to Apex, thinking that place was so high and mighty, and it reminded me of how I cried myself to sleep night after night and was haunted by the fact that I was gay. It seems like every other period of my life was far better, and that I have somehow gone backwards to this point. In some ways that may be true. I wish I had more friends, a friend group that I can really relate to and hang out with a lot like Austin has. I get so jealous about that, that Austin was able to move schools once and stumble upon a group of friends he literally hangs out with for a good chunk of every single day, and he found those people in a matter of months. I find myself here without many good friends, without many people that seem to want my company. Austin says its the sense of humor that gets people on board. I might agree, it seems the more lighthearted I am the more people wanted to be around me. I think the more lighthearted I was was the time those memories stuck around, to form all those impressions that my past was filled with good times. And yet there is a lesson in this I think. Perhaps all those times I was feeling terrible within those good times, all those times all I could see is what I wanted, how I wasn't hanging out with people and how it seemed I couldn't find people that sought after my company, perhaps those times weren't so bad. Perhaps my situation now isn't so bad either. What if I look back on where I am now in the future and say "what a wonderful time that was." Because really, there is so much good around me. Austin and I are better together than any other point in our relationship. We have transcended cheating, mental illness, being separated for far too long, the frustrations of living together for the first time, and helping each other through our own life struggles. We have been through much and grown beyond it all, I really do find it hard to believe that I have been blessed with such an amazing person. And it amazes me, it frightens me often, how quickly I can lose sight of all of that, quickly judge him as not being good enough to me. Things as simple as he won't reply in a timely fashion, that time when he decided to do laundry instead of be prompt in picking me up. When he doesn't pay attention to me or contribute enough to the conversation over FaceTime. When he forgetfully leaves something on read, probably was intending on replying, but simply forgot. I assume the worst motives with him, trying to find reasons why he would do me wrong. Perhaps that's what I've trained myself to expect from people I love, not ever receiving the attention and love I want because they were straight. Perhaps I expect more from him because I remember distinctly the Austin that texted and snapped all the time. In fact, if I were to say there was one dominant factor in why I didn't struggle through tears everyday at Williston in the spring is because of Austin. Even when he was at school we would text and snap constantly. Where has that gone? They say there's a cupcake stage, and perhaps that is all it was. Even so, he has been really understanding lately, and I have seen a drastic change in how much he's texted and snapped me. Sometime's I'll call him out over Facetime or when he's with his friends by how much he's changed since he went to ECU, but of course I knew he would. When I mention it it makes him uncomfortable, just like it made me uncomfortable when I heard it after going to Williston. People change. I wonder if I have changed him at all. I remember how he used to struggle so much missing me when I would leave in the spring of last year. I remember how much he would mention how I didn't have time for him. That had to hurt, in many ways I've perceived it that I feel the way he did then. That's why I think we've switched places. Sometimes I wonder if this is what I deserved, perhaps I could have treated him better, especially at the end of the summer. An interesting thing I've noticed is what we've talked about. I think when we were first getting to learn each other, we'd talk a lot about ourselves. I was constantly trying to learn more about him, in all honesty I was desperate to fall in love with him like he fell in love with me. But that is a separate point. The point I'm making now is I have found that the vast majority of things I talk about with Mattie include Austin in one way or another. That one counselor that I texted during the end of my winter break smacked me with the question "Who are you without him?" Like I just gawked at my phone for five minutes I had no idea how to even react. I have become so absorbed by Austin since I fell for him. When I was helping Matt this week I blatantly told him that his animosity towards his girlfriend is not a product of love for her, but an obsession with being loved by her because he couldn't love himself. I think I have found it hard to love myself in the past several months. I constantly beat myself up for cheating on Austin. When I went to college I cheated on him more because I wanted to break things off with him because I didn't think I deserved him, I felt so bad after the incident with Lawson. I hated myself for not loving Austin. I hated myself for being frustrated with him. Then when I came to SMU I beat myself up immensely over my failure to make real friends. I took their reactions of ignoration to heart and slowly drew back into myself. I stopped going out and I stopped trying. I gave up and concluded that people here did not like me. At that time Austin and I were on not so good terms still. I was pushing him away and breaking his heart with ideas of taking a break. I was being a complete asshole. When I had heart he cheated on me there too, I was really relieved that I wasn't the only criminal in the relationship anymore, but I also confirmed to myself that I was no longer being a good boyfriend if he was able to do that to me. I remember that weekend, I revealed the other part of myself. The part of myself that wasn't all jokes and laughter and lightheartedness. I exposed my soft side, I exposed how philosophical I was and how driven I was for the future. That was the first time he had ever ignored me. He left me on read and I quickly became desperate for answers, I wanted him so desperately to love this side of myself... When he ignored it it reminded me much of Zachariah when I would get emotional or philosophical, and I quickly became distraught over the idea that I was pushing away Austin with this side of myself. It's strange how just one or two days after that event I realized I had fallen in love with Austin Gibson. I've often wondered if I fell in love with Austin because he played hard to catch, I wonder if I fell for him because it seemed he was not loving me at that time. It reminded me of how I fell in love with Zachariah and Jacob, and how they both did not love me. But I must also remember that I fell in love with those two because they had been kind to me, I fell in love with them because at first they had sought after my company, and made me feel wanted. Austin definitely made me feel that way in our early relationship, very much so actually. And I think that's why I was so into the relationship at the time. All that time I knew I wasn't ready to love him because I was skeptical he was just having a first boy-stage that he would eventually fall out of. But I was enjoying it the whole time because we were in that cupcake stage and he was showing me all the attention I wanted. I remember that time so well because I had someone who treated me the way I wanted to be treated. I felt bad that I didn't always have the time to reply to him constantly, but I honestly felt so good that I had someone that wanted me replying to them that much. When he ignored me that fall break I thought I had lost that. Over the next couple of days we talked on FaceTime for the first time in a good while, we talked it out and that's when I really started learning that he wasn't well versed in helping someone through that kind of thing. But I saw that he did care, that he was genuinely trying, and was working to learn this new side of me. Such the same I was starting to learn the side of him that would be dealing with me. After fall long weekend I started to really focus on how he would not reply so quickly, in fact he really seemed to be replying a lot less than he did before that weekend which had an immense effect on me. Months later I would learn that Austin was driven to continue to cheat on me in those initial months. When I first learned that I would think so much about how he must've been ignoring me in that time to text and snap these other guys. I remember trembling when I first went through his computer, and how much time I spent trying to convince myself I was just making things up...until I saw actual pictures. He had snapped these guys and they snapped him back. I have mental images of Austin sending them the eggplant emoji. I'm glad it went no further than text, at least I pray to God it never did. It hurt so much because I know he was doing that after that fall break weekend. After we admitted our wrongs to each other and forgave each other, after we both promised to communicate more and tell each other if it ever happened again. I wonder if he would've ever confessed had I not found that myself. He wanted to hide it from me because he didn't want to hurt someone who was already paranoid. Yet he was still texting one of those guys over the winter break, someone he shouldn't even know. Someone he should have no contact with, and he was texting him while I was there. He would delete those texts, he deliberately hid it from me. That's what hurt most, he hid it from me. And maybe learning all that did make my paranoia worse. But I know how easy it is to make that mistake. I know how easy it is to be tempted, and to think nothing of it because guys watch porn as it is and it's really no different if everything is just over the phone. Writing this is drawing up some old feelings and I'm not really sure I want to continue with it. If I remember correctly I was trying to get to the bottom of the reason why I'm so quick to judge Austin as not doing enough. I touched on my experience with love before Austin, my low self esteem at the time I fell in love with him, the uncertainty I had of sharing the rest of my personality with him and the fact that he pushed it away at first, the fact that he cheated on me continuously after I stopped making that impression resurrect during winter break. And yet according to him he's "changed." I put that in quotes just like he did, because it's passé. It's passe because its been said so much and upheld so little. But I can see the change. He looks at me with that intense feeling of love again. We get so gushy with our love texts again. He made me this jar of memories which made me melt on the spot. I don't give him enough credit. He texts and snaps back thousands of times more than he did before. When he's not tired he does participate quite a bit in Facetime. He has lost that sense of aversion towards me he carried before I exposed his cheating. It seems before that night I brought it up that he was always skeptical I was being skeptical of him. I don't even know how to describe it but I could literally feel his inner tension over it. We cried for so many nights after I exposed him. I found it very hard to cry when he was crying. I suppose I cried because I couldn't feel he cared. His tears proved other wise. Each day I would stumble upon other concepts of what him cheating on me at that time meant, and I kept breaking my own heart with those revelations over and over again. I suppose the best evidence that I have been seeking out reasons to prove Austin isn't being a good boyfriend is when I went back through his computer and phone and started shaking when I found an old snap stream he simply forgot to block. I saw some texts in there that terrified me, and I found some texts that sounded like he was meeting with someone when it was actually just a classmate. Austin quickly proved to me that what I saw really wasn't cheating. But this stands as the best example that I've been jumping to conclusions. So what is the solution to this bad habit? What is the solution to me not breaking down for two hours in the middle of the day because he accidentally didn't reply to a snap I sent him? I think doing this has actually helped. I think this journal has actually helped. I think what I need to be doing more is seeing the ways he has improved. Such the same goes for my life situation, I need to see all the good that has come into my life, all the ways it has improved. I keep looking for new ways that my life isn't good enough, new ways that Austin isn't being good enough. Neither of those are warranted, I just need to see the good I already have. I keep comparing myself to others, what they have going for them that I don't. But I need to be comparing myself with myself and my past, how much I've grown, how much Austin and I have grown together. There may be things that have gone backwards, that happens. But that is no reason to be afraid.. If they happened before they can happen again. That goes for both the bad and the good. The important thing to do is focus on the good we have, and do positive actions towards making those things better. Positive actions do not include guilt tripping Austin, making him feel inadequate, making him feel like he should be doing more. Positive actions mean being grateful for what Austin has been doing, and having rational, real conversations with him about anything going on right now that can be improved. Spraying him with criticism is not going to do anything but meet resistance because that's human nature. I felt the same way sometimes in the spring. So I need to work with him, not yank him to where I want him to be, but let him know I want him a little more here or a little more there, and to make sure I'm listening when he says the same to me. I suppose it's going to be a process. There is nothing that can really help me instantly be better to him. It's going to take constant pressure from myself to be reasonable with him. To send another random text or snap to him to remind him to reply without calling him out for not replying. To just accept his little habits and accept him for who he is and remind myself that he really does love me and that's why he's stuck around for so long and is so willing to stick around indefinitely. I need to remind myself that he means nothing he does or doesn't do personally, he doesn't even mean anything by most of it. If I were as busy as he I would probably be as forgetful as he is. And that doesn't mean I should beat myself up for not having as much going on as he does either. I need to love him, remember his love, and remember to love myself. I am not in such a bad position, my failure to instantly make friends like Austin is not a reflection of myself as a person, which is something I definitely need to constantly remind myself of. I need to be more patient, and I need to consume my time with things I like to do. I have a business idea I want to execute, I have clubs I'm a part of, I have plenty of school work to keep me busy. And it's okay if I slip up like I did today, I need to remember that it's not the end of the world when I feel bad for a day or two or three. I've made so much progress over the past couple of months and I'm going to keep making progress so long as I keep remembering what I'm fighting for. I'm fighting to be a good friend, a good person to myself, and most importantly a good boyfriend. I love Austin so so much, like honestly the only reason I'm struggling with all of this is because I want to be with him for so long. The only reason I get hyper critical is because I miss him and want to talk to him more and more. Who knows? Maybe life in North Carolina will make it easier. Let this long ass journal be a testament to me trying everything in my power to make things as best as they can be. This has been revealing for myself, I think. I really have found some solace in seeing everything written out, all my feelings and memories of my time with Austin and my time away from Austin. I did this because I want to be a better boyfriend, I did this because I want to be a better person in general. This has offered me much clarity, maybe it will for you too.

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