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stylesclarified · 6 months ago

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A complete deconstruction: Louis Tomlinson is a terrible songwriter. Part I

For years Louis' fans, spurred by the man himself, have been pedaling this lie that Louis was a "crucial" part of 1D's success through his songwriting and that, in turn, that made him a great, legendary songwriter. The best out of 1D.

That is a bold face lie that relies on people not fact-checking anything whatsoever and pulling stuff out of context.

Let's deconstruct the lie.

This first part will focus on certain things his fans (and he) say and why they're not true. It's not meant to be very fun because it's a bunch of numbers and statistics. It's meant to give you tools to debunk the lies by Louis' fans.

The fun part of this deconstruction will come in the second and third parts, which I intend to post immediately after this one.

FIRST POINT: Louis wrote most One Direction songs

No. He didn't. By any definition of the word.

most adjective 1 - in the greatest quantity, amount, measure, degree, or number: To win the most votes. 2 - in the majority of instances: Most operations are successful. 3 - greatest, as in size or extent: The most talent.

Definition #1 and #2 imply >50% of One Direction songs should have his name in the credits, correct?

Well, they don't. Louis has writing credit in 37 songs out of 91, which is 40%. It's a high number, for sure (very deceitful, but let's go with it for now), but it's not upwards of 50%, ergo, he didn't write "most One Direction songs."

Definition #3 would mean that if he had written in the most songs, as in, the largest amount among everyone, even if his percentage didn't surpass 50%, we could say that, to some degree, he's the one who wrote "the most" (still, very deceitful).

Alas, that would still be false. Two of the members of the band's songwriting team, Julian Bunetta and John Ryan, have written more songs than Louis. Julian has credit in 41, and John in 39.

You can fact check these numbers in this link.

I want to clarify, that even if Louis had written in the most songs (by any definition), it would've been largely irrelevant because of context. Zayn is on the record saying that all his ideas were dismissed and he felt side-lined.

So of course he'll have the least amount of writing credits (11 total, none of them as the sole contributor from the band).

Harry is also on the record saying he didn't want to "share" his songs. That he felt weird having other people singing about his innermost experiences, so he kept songs for himself (case in point, Two Ghosts).

[Happily is not the first time his name was on the songwriting credits, but we'll get on with that and why what he's saying isn't actually wrong at a later date]

Niall hasn't explained why he wrote fewer songs, but considering he writes all his tracks now and he actually can play instruments, and could all throughout the band, I hardly think that he was incapable of writing more. For whatever reason he chose not to.

So, Louis and Liam writing more in this context is completely meaningless. The others either weren't allowed to contribute or chose not to. It's not that Louis and Liam wrote more by virtue of being better songwriters. They wrote more by virtue of the others not writing.

Their lengthy songwriting credits are meaningless for more reasons that we'll explore soon, too, but the point I'm making here is that even devoid of all this context, the whole "Louis wrote most songs" assertion is simply not true.

SECOND POINT. "And remember, if it's a banger and by One Direction I probably wrote on it"

I know most people who would read this post already know this, but just in case, that's something Louis himself tweeted. He's wrong.

First, let's define "a banger." In this context, it would mean a hit. Their biggest songs. The most famous. The ones people consume and bop to the most.

What metrics can we take for this? Multiple. Such as:

Chart peaks (particularly in the US and the UK, their biggest markets)

Chart longevity

Certifications

Total sales

Total streams

Of course, to fact check this, I have to go by their singles. Those songs will be promoted and pushed the most, and those songs will be tracked for their stats.

Louis wrote in 6 singles, Liam in 5, Harry in 3, Niall and Zayn in 2. Who wrote "the most" singles is largely irrelevant (see the point I made above). One Direction released seventeen singles, so none of them wrote even close to "the most," and we've already established that the other three weren't really even trying.

But when Louis said that if it's a banger by 1D he probably wrote on it, in its face that would mean he has written 1D's most known and popular songs. The songs everyone bops to and instantly recognize. And as I said, this is flat out wrong.

This next bit will be largely statistical and a long list of names. I apologize because it's not super interesting, but it's kind of crucial to debunk the nonsense Louis said.

I'm listing every 1D single and its songwriters, which you can absolutely skip, I'll signal the huge block of text before and after. I want the information to be here, so you can glance at it if you need so, but it's not something you have to read in detail.

To make it a little more interactive, I'm color-coding it, going by their 1D microphones.

Green = Harry Blue = Louis Red = Liam Orange (the Irish flag) = Niall Pink (there's no yellow) = Zayn

The purple songs are the lead singles. I'm adding the album they belong to in brackets.

I know this sort of list is boring, you can just skip it and glance at it, or read the parts that you find particularly interesting, but I figured it'd be a good idea to have it all written down.

+ What Makes You Beautiful: (UAN) Carl Falk, Rami Yacoub, Savan Kotecha

+ Gotta Be You: (UAN) Augusto Rigo, Steve Mac

+ One Thing: (UAN) Carl Falk, Rami Yacoub, Savan Kotecha

+ More Than This: (UAN) Jamie Scott

+ Live While We're Young: (TMH) Carl Falk, Rami Yacoub, Savan Kotecha

+ Little Things (TMH) Ed Sheeran, Fiona Bevan

+ Kiss You (TMH) Albin Nedler, Bonn, Carl Falk, Kristian Lundin, Rami Yacoub, Savan Kotecha, Shellback

+ One Way or Another (Teenage Kicks) (charity single) Debbie Harry, John O'Neill, Nigel Harrison

+ Best Song Ever (MM) Ed Drewett, John Ryan, Julian Bunetta, Wayne Hector

+ Story Of My Life (MM) Ed Drewett, Harry Styles, Jamie Scott, John Ryan, Julian Bunetta, Liam Payne, Louis Tomlinson, Niall Horan, Wayne Hector, Zayn Malik

+ Midnight Memories (MM) Jamie Scott, John Ryan, Julian Bunetta, Liam Payne, Louis Tomlinson

+ You & I (MM) Jamie Scott, John Ryan, Julian Bunetta

+ Steal My Girl (Four) Ed Drewett, John Ryan, Jonathan Cain, Julian Bunetta, Liam Payne, Louis Tomlinson, Wayne Hector

+ Night Changes (Four) Harry Styles, Jamie Scott, John Ryan, Julian Bunetta, Liam Payne, Louis Tomlinson, Niall Horan, Zayn Malik

+ Drag Me Down (MITAM) Jamie Scott, John Ryan, Julian Bunetta

+ Perfect (MITAM) Harry Styles, Jacob Kasher, Jesse Shatkin, John Ryan, Julian Bunetta, Louis Tomlinson, Maureen Anne McDonald

+ History (MITAM) Ed Drewett, John Ryan, Julian Bunetta, Liam Payne, Louis Tomlinson, Wayne Hector

END OF THE HUGE BLOCK OF TEXT

Okay, so did he write 1D's most iconic and recognized songs? Well, no.

Color availability on tumblr is low so I have to change coding for the next bit. Pink is all five writing on the song, red is Louis + Liam, green is Louis + Harry.

I'll use top 10 for each metric.

Biggest singles overall according to Chart Masters:

* Chart masters is a website that aggregates sales and streams. It's not 100% accurate but it's the best approach we can get to the sales figure.

What Makes You Beautiful – 4,700,000

Story of My Life – 2,410,000

One Thing – 2,210,000

Little Things – 2,030,000

Live While We’re Young – 1,930,000

Best Song Ever – 1,810,000

Kiss You – 1,710,000

Drag Me Down – 1,450,000

Steal My Girl – 1,410,000

Night Changes – 1,150,000

More certifications worldwide:

What Makes You Beautiful: 9,368,000

Story Of My Life: 6,110,000

Drag Me Down: 3,793,000

Live While We're Young: 3,043,000

Little Things: 3,040,500

One Thing: 2,879,500

Best Song Ever: 2,507,500

Steal My Girl: 2,452,500

Perfect: 2,322,000

Night Changes: 2,147,500

Most viewed music videos:

What Makes You Beautiful: 1.5 billion

Drag Me Down: 1 billion

Story Of My Life: 1 billion

Night Changes: 878 million

One Thing: 808 million

Best Song Ever: 806 million

Live While We're Young: 745 million

You & I: 623 million

Perfect: 570 million

Kiss You: 563 million

UK chart peaks (longevity in brackets):

What Makes You Beautiful #1 (79 weeks)

Drag Me Down #1 (31 weeks)

Little Things #1 (27 weeks)

One Way Or Another #1 (17 weeks

Story Of My Life #2 (30 weeks)

Best Song Ever #2 (28 weeks)

Perfect #2 (20 weeks)

Live While We're Young #3 (25 weeks)

Steal My Girl #3 (22 weeks)

Gotta Be You #3 (7 weeks)

US chart peaks:

Best Song Ever #2 (21 weeks)

Drag Me Down #3 (20 weeks)

Live While We're Young #3 (16 weeks),

What Makes You Beautiful #4 (34 weeks)

Story of my Life #6 (32 weeks)

Perfect #10 (20 weeks)

Midnight Memories #12 (3 weeks)

Steal My Girl #13 (18 weeks)

One Way Or Another #13 (8 weeks)

Night Changes #31 (20 weeks)

If we average all of these different metrics, the order would be this (in case of a tie, whichever song has more streams on Spotify goes first):

What Makes You Beautiful 5 metrics, 1.6 average

Story of my Life 5 metrics, 3.4 average

Drag Me Down 5 metrics, 3.4 average

Best Song Ever 5 metrics, 5.2 average

Live While We're Young 5 metrics, 5.4 average

Perfect 4 metrics, 7.75 average

Night Changes 4 metrics, 8.5 average

Steal My Girl 4 metrics, 8.5 average

Little Things 3 metrics, 4 average

One Thing 3 metrics, 4.67 average

One Way or Another 2 metrics, 6.5 average

Kiss You 2 metrics, 8.5 average

Gotta Be You 2 metrics, 9.5 average

Midnight Memories 1 metric, 7

You & I 1 metric, 8

History No metrics

More Than This No metrics

Of the three singles Louis and Liam wrote together, only one makes the top 10 at 8. And that single is the lead for Four, remember what I said about leads being the songs that have a better chance at charting and selling well? Steal My Girl is by far the least successful lead single 1D has released at #8 (all the other four lead singles are in the top 5). I think it's actually kinda funny, ngl.

So far his "banger" assertion isn't really making that much sense, is it? He didn't write on even close to a majority of the singles, and the ones he did write, aren't really the biggest hits either...

There's a way for us to do this sort of assessment of "bangers" with non-singles. For that, the only tool we really have are Spotify streams.

I'll add a disclaimer that I think is important: ONE DIRECTION WASN'T ACTIVE IN THE STREAMING ERA.

The streaming era is largely regarded to start in 2015, when Billboard (the company that tracks the US charts) started including streams in their formulas, but it didn't really kick into gear until a couple of years later.

Look at this chart of Spotify active users from the first quarter of 2015 on. There were 68 million in 2015 vs 615 million in 2024. And this doesn't include 4 out of the 5 years 1D was active in.

1D actually got a lot of new streaming bests after Liam's passing, because of course people started to listen to their catalog there actively for the first time.

What I'm going to use streaming for is for their non-singles. There's no way to know how many units those songs sold unless you have access to their raw data (which only their team has), so streaming is as close of a guess as we can have as to which non-singles are popular.

Something I haven't detailed yet is the total amount of written songs by all members of the band. Let me do that:

List of writing credits:

Zayn - 11 9 tracks, 2 singles

Niall - 16 14 tracks, 2 singles

Harry - 21 18 tracks, 3 singles

Liam - 34 29 tracks, 5 singles

Louis - 37 31 tracks, 6 singles

Since there's such disparity in the number of songs written, let's do an average per track (excluding singles, since those have been analyzed already)

Zayn: 93,953,458 Niall: 102,031,790 Liam: 129,623,606 Louis: 137,115,106 Harry: 157,811,404

Harry has by far the largest average, Louis trails behind by 20M+ with Liam somewhat closer.

Just for shits and giggles, I wondered how many of the songs they'd written were above 100M:

Zayn 2/9 = 22%

Niall 6/14 = 43%

Liam 13/29 = 45%

Louis 14/31 = 45%

Harry 9/17 = 53%

Well, well, well... isn't that very curious?

IDK I think that it's starting to sound like if it's a banger by One Direction Harry probably wrote on it

I'm absolutely joking, btw, if it's a banger by One Direction Julian Bunetta probably wrote on it. But I will say, quantity <<<< quality.

I think it's safe to say that Louis didn't write 1D's bangers and he's full of himself.

THIRD POINT. "Louis was the main songwriter and the most important one in the band"

Louis wrote most of his songs by committee, so this is absolutely ridiculous to say. I mean, all five of them had a lot less say in the sound of 1D than fans would like to believe, but nobody is claiming any of the others were the "key member" because of their songwriting, so...

Aside from Zayn, who always wrote with at least two other members of the band + several other co-writers, we can actually look at who they were writing with and determine how important each member was for each song.

I'm taking these songs out of the equation because all five wrote on them, and that fully neutralizes them as an argument.

Night Changes

Story Of My Life

Fool's Gold

Taken

Summer Love

Change Your Ticket

Same Mistakes

Everything About You

Irresistible

Also taking out AM and Back For You, because while Zayn didn't write in them, all the other four did, and I'm not going to consider Zayn for this part of the point.

To make it more visually impactful, I'm color-coding the list. Red will be the most common number of co-writers, orange the mid, and green the low.

LOUIS - 26 tracks

Two with 2 co-writers.

Five with 3 co-writers.

Nine with 4 co-writers.

Six with 5 co-writers.

Two with 6 co-writers.

Two with 7 co-writers.

Average 4.3 co-writers per song

---

LIAM - 23 tracks

One with 2 co-writers.

Two with 3 co-writers.

Twelve with 4 co-writers.

Five with 5 co-writers.

One with 6 co-writers.

Two with 7 co-writers

Average 4.2 co-writers per song

---

NIALL - 5 tracks

Two with 3 co-writers.

Three with 4 co-writers.

Average 3.6 co-writers per song

---

HARRY - 10 tracks

Four with 2 co-writers

Three with 3 co-writers

One with 4 co-writers

One with 5 co-writers

On with 6 co-writers

Average 3.2 co-writers per song

Louis usually wrote with 4 or 5 other people, so did Liam. Niall usually wrote with 4 or 3. Harry usually wrote with 2 or 3. I think that is EXTREMELY telling.

How important can you be for a song if you're writing it with several others? And this, this is the crux of the issue.

It's why this whole argument about how "important" Louis was for 1D and how he was such a great songwriter is utter bullshit.

This is the climax of this very boring post. The most important part.

I'm going to try to simplify this as much as I can. Try to bear with me.

When you write a song, you have to register the songwriters to get royalties (to get PAID). When a song has multiple songwriters, (most of the time) each one will get paid according to what they did on the song. In most cases, someone will have come up with the melody, which is a key part. Someone will have written most of the lyrics. Someone else might just get credit for suggesting adding an instrument or changing a part of an arrangement, switching a line, whatever

Each of these people will have songwriting credit, but not all of them will have contributed equally. And that's something that in most cases is actually divided when you register the credits of a song. You agree with your co-writers on who gets what % of the credits and that's how you register it. So when you get paid for it (what's called "royalties") each person gets compensated fairly for their contributions.

Whoever wrote the most will get paid the most, and so forth.

So how does this happen? Well, I have to explain something else very briefly. In order to get paid royalties, you have to register in a company that collects them (they collect from radio, from streaming services, from your song being used on TV, etc). The companies that do this are called Performance Rights Organizations, shortened to PRO.

There are multiple different PROs that you can get signed to. Different countries will have different PROs. In America the two most common ones are ASCAP (American Society of Composers, Authors, and Publishers) and BMI (Broadcast Music Inc.). There are other PROs in America, and there are other PROs in other countries.

In 1D, Zayn is signed to BMI, Liam, Louis, and Niall are all signed to PRS (Performing Rights Society), which is a British pro, Harry is signed to GMR (Global Music Rights), which is a newish American PRO founded by Irving Azoff.

BMI and ASCAP created Songview in 2020. Songview is a platform that allows you to search their databases and see their catalogs in an organized way. Songview will typically tell you if BMI or ASCAP control a song and what percentage of it they control.

One thing to keep in mind, foreign PROs (such as PRS) will collect royalties through an American PRO, typically either BMI or ASCAP (but it could be another one, such as SESAC or GMR), and that will depend on the individual arrangement the songwriter has. In Songview, royalties for those PROs will show up under either BMI or ASCAP, even if the songwriters aren't signed to them.

If the song is under another American PRO that isn't BMI or ASCAP, Songview will just show it as "other."

Songview isn't 100% infallible. There can be mistakes. You can access it through either ASCAP or BMI's website and the information will largely be the same. It's possible one of the two will have more details (usually BMI is friendlier to navigate). There can be mistakes, but they're rare.

Now, since what we're analyzing is the songs written while the guys were in 1D, I have to add another disclaimer. While the guys were in the band, all their songs were under a publisher (I'm not going to explain this, it's too much, you can look it up). The publisher's name was PPM Music LTD. All of 1D's songs went through that, regardless of who wrote them. So, if all five wrote on a song (like on Story Of My Life), we can't get their individual %. The individual % exists, but it's impossible to discriminate unless you have access to the filing information, which we do not.

PPM Music was signed to PRS and collected through BMI. I use past tense because, while it still collects their royalties, nobody is registering their songs through it anymore.

What's the point of all this? Well, we can do a little logic-guesswork-looky and get an estimate of the % of songwriting credits the guys have in several songs they've written for 1D.

For instance, let's look at Back For You, which is a song 4 members of 1D (everyone except Zayn) wrote for their second album, alongside Savan Kotecha (ASCAP), Rami Yacoub (BMI), and three Swedish songwriters called Carl Falk, Albin Nedler, and Kristoffer Fogelmark. These three Swedish songwriters are signed to STIM (which literally translates to Swedish Performing Rights Society).

The breakdown of this song is 85% for ASCAP, 10% for BMI, and 5% for "other."

We don't know any of this for sure, but most likely scenario, one of the STIM songwriters is collecting through an American PRO that isn't BMI or ASCAP (hence "5% other"), while the other two + Savan are collecting through ASCAP (85%).

Rami Yacoub + the 1D guys are all collecting through BMI and they divide the 10% controlled by it. Most likely scenario, Rami has 5% and the 1D guys split the remaining 5. Why? Because he was a professional songwriter and the 1D guys were teenagers who were just dipping their toes in music? Hahaha.

But aside from that, keep one thing in mind that's important. Carl Falk, Rami Yacoub, Savan Kotecha, and later on Julian Bunetta, John Ryan, and Jamie Scott were hired by their label to write music for 1D. They weren't going to sit for hours on a studio only to write 1% of a song. Typically, if you have a team of professional writers on a song, they'll either split credits evenly (because they do it as a 9 to 5 job) or there'll be one or two (usually the producers) who get slightly more credit.

But, okay, this is for their second album. The 1D guys were still finding their footing, right? Surely they'll contribute more down the line, once Louis TOOK CHARGE!

Okay, so here's Fool's Gold, which was written for their fourth album.

There's only one ASCAP writer (Maureen McDonald), but she has 40% of the writing credit. The remaining 60% is divided between all five members of the band + James Needle.

As per what I said above, James Needle probably had 40% as well, meaning the remaining 20% is divided in 5, which each member getting 4%.

But maybe I'm making assumptions! Alright. Let's go to History, Ed Drewett is with ASCAP and he has 32% of the writing credit. Leaving 68% to be divided by John Ryan, Julian Bunetta, Liam, and Louis. Considering Julian and John also PRODUCED the fucking song they most likely had equal parts or more than Ed Drewett. If we assume equal, that's 96% songwriting credit for Ed, Julian, and John and 4% to be divided between Liam and Louis.

We don't really have the luxury of knowing exact breakdowns because sadly, most songwriters involved with 1D are signed to BMI. We have to resort to this sort of guesswork, but it's pretty straightforward thinking. Julian and John (and a lot of the time, Jamie Scott as well) were instrumental in most 1D songs. They won't have less writing credit than Ed Drewett.

I'll do a breakdown song by song without all the commentary next, but keep in mind that there are a lot of songs in which 100% of the credits belong to BMI because every songwriter is signed to it. In that case I can't do any sort of breakdown. It's impossible to tell.

Those songs are...

From Midnight Memories: - Alive, Better Than Words, Diana, Does He Know?, Don't Forget Where You Belong, Little Black Dress, Midnight Memories, Something Great, Story Of My Life, Strong, Through The Dark

From Four: - Clouds, Illusion, Fireproof, Illusion, Night Changes, Ready To Run, Spaces, Steal My Girl

From Made In The AM: - Home, Long Way Down, Never Enough, Olivia, Walking In The Wind

The following songs are not filed on BMI or ASCAP: - Still The One, What A Feeling, and Wolves

Okay, so onto the ones I can sort of break down. Keep in mind I'm making EDUCATED GUESSES. I'm not including any more screenshots because it's getting annoying, but you can look it up here.

I'm going in order by album and tracklist

TAKEN (Up All Night)

Lindy Robbins 37.5% (ASCAP) Toby Gad 37.5% (ASCAP) Harry Styles 5% Liam Payne 5% Louis Tomlinson 5% Niall Horan 5% Zayn Malik 5%

EVERYTHING ABOUT YOU (Up All Night)

Stephen Robson 40% (ASCAP) Wayne Hector 40% (BMI) Harry Styles 4% (BMI) Liam Payne 4% (BMI) Louis Tomlinson 4% (BMI) Niall Horan 4% (BMI) Zayn Malik 4% (BMI)

SAME MISTAKES (Up All Night)

Stephen Robson 20% (ASCAP) Wayne Hector 20% (BMI) Harry Styles 12% Liam Payne 12% Louis Tomlinson 12% Niall Horan 12% Zayn Malik 12%

LAST FIRST KISS (Take Me Home)

This one is flat out wrong. Harry and Niall didn't write on this song. Also PPM Music isn't listed in the publishers. If you search the song on ASCAP, PPM Music is mentioned and Harry and Niall aren't in it, so that would be correct, but the percentages are different which confuses me further. My guess is that there's some sort of mistake in the filing on BMI, but I can't break down the percentages.

BACK FOR YOU (Take Me Home)

Already broke it down!

SUMMER LOVE (Take Me Home)

This one is complicated, there's an "other" that I can't place. So I'm gonna leave it up to god.

IRRESISTIBLE (Take Me Home)

I actually can't break this one down. There must've been a bunch of changes in societies that I can't track down.

HAPPILY (Midnight Memories)

Savan Kotecha 33.34% (ASCAP) Carl Falk 33.34% (STIM) Harry Styles 33.34%

RIGHT NOW (Midnight Memories)

I have to add screenshots here. This song was written by Harry, Liam, and Louis alongside OneRepublic frontman, Ryan Tedder. Ryan is signed with Global Music Rights (GMR, Harry's PRO that I mentioned earlier).

BMI says that they control 10% of the songwriting and 15% of the publishing, while "other" (GMR) controls 75%

But GMR says they control 70%

PPM Music LTD isn't listed as a publisher on BMI, which already happened with Last First Kiss. The difference here is that it's also not listed on ASCAP, so I don't think it's a mistake. My guess is that when Ryan moved his publishing of this song to GMR (he signed with GMR a couple of years ago), they also somehow moved Harry's rights as well, so that 70% is both Ryan and Harry's rights, and the remaining 30% is Liam and Louis'. In that case the breakdown would be:

Ryan Tedder 55% (GMR) Harry Styles 15% Liam Payne 15% Louis Tomlinson 15%

LITTLE WHITE LIES (Midnight Memories)

Ed Drewett 20% (ASCAP) Julian Bunetta 20% (BMI) John Ryan 20% (BMI) Wayne Hector 20% (BMI) Liam Payne 10% (BMI) Louis Tomlinson 10% (BMI)

WHY DON'T WE GO THERE? (Midnight Memories)

Stephen Robson 25% (ASCAP) Wayne Hector 25% (BMI) Claude Kelly 25% (BMI) Louis Tomlinson 25%

WHERE DO BROKEN HEARTS GO? (Four)

Ruth Cunningham 20% (ASCAP) Julian Bunetta 20% (BMI) Teddy Geiger 20% (BMI) Ali Tamposi 20% (BMI) Harry Styles 20%

FOOL'S GOLD (Four)

Maureen McDonald 40% (ASCAP) James Needle 40% (BMI) Harry Styles 4% (BMI) Liam Payne 4% (BMI) Louis Tomlinson 4% (BMI) Niall Horan 4% (BMI) Zayn Malik 4% (BMI)

NO CONTROL (Four)

In this one, the only non-BMI songwriter has minimal credit, which doesn't allow me to distribute the remaining 90%. It could be split evenly 18% each, or it could be 20% for the professionals and 15% for Louis and Liam, or any other division. I can only guess so much.

STOCKHOLM SYNDROME (Four)

Something similar to what happened with No Control. Johan Carlsson only has 10% of the writing credit, so I have to divide 90% between Julian Bunetta, John Ryan, and Harry. It could be even or Julian and John could have more. No way of knowing.

CHANGE YOUR TICKET (Four)

Samuel Martin 10% (ASCAP) Julian Bunetta 20% (BMI) John Ryan 20% (BMI) Harry Styles 10% (BMI) Liam Payne 10% (BMI) Louis Tomlinson 10% (BMI) Niall Horan 10% (BMI) Zayn Malik 10% (BMI)

PERFECT (MITAM)

Jacob Hindlin 17.67% (ASCAP) Maureen McDonald 17.67% (ASCAP) Jesse Shatkin 17.67% (ASCAP) Julian Bunetta 17.67% (BMI) John Ryan 17.67% (BMI) Harry Styles 5.83% (BMI) Louis Tomlinson 5.83% (BMI)

END OF THE DAY (MITAM)

Ed Drewett 17% (ASCAP) Jacob Hindlin 17% (ASCAP) Julian Bunetta 17% (BMI) John Ryan 17% (BMI) Wayne Hector 17% (BMI) LunchMoney Lewis 5% (BMI) Liam Payne 5% (BMI) Louis Tomlinson 5% (BMI)

IF I COULD FLY (MITAM)

Johan Carlsson 33.33% (ASCAP) Ross Golan 33.33% (BMI) Harry Styles 33.33%

LOVE YOU GOODBYE (MITAM)

Jacob Hindlin 40% (ASCAP) Julian Bunetta 40% (ASCAP) Louis Tomlinson 20% (BMI)

HISTORY (MITAM)

Ed Drewett 32% (ASCAP) Julian Bunetta 32% (BMI) John Ryan 32% (BMI) Liam Payne 2% (BMI) Louis Tomlinson 2% (BMI)

TEMPORARY FIX (MITAM)

Peter Kelleher 16.67% (ASCAP) Benhamin Kohn 16.67% (ASCAP) Wayne Hector 22.22% (BMI) Thomas Barnes 22.22% (BMI) Niall Horan 22.22% (BMI)

AM (MITAM)

Ed Drewett 20% (ASCAP) Julian Bunetta 20% (BMI) Wayne Hector 20% (BMI) Harry Styles 10% (BMI) Liam Payne 10% (BMI) Louis Tomlinson 10% (BMI) Niall Horan 10% (BMI)

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Anyway, what's the conclusion here? Well, that if they were writing in big groups, then they most likely had very little say in terms of songwriting. We're talking 10% or less writing credit each. It's only when they go into smaller groups that they get a little bit more say and that's in very few songs.

I'm being extremely fair in these guesstimates and applying the same logic to everyone. Aside from very few examples (Why Don't We Go There? and Love You Goodbye, in Louis' case, Happily, If I Could Fly, and Where Do Broken Hearts Go? in Harry's, Temporary Fix in Niall's) where they have even splits in smaller groups, none of them were really the driving force in terms of songwriting.

Conclusion: Louis wasn't the key anything.

This idea that Louis was crucial for 1D's success because of his writing is fucking ridiculous by literally all metrics. He didn't write the most songs, he didn't write on most songs, he didn't write the biggest bangers or the most popular songs (not singles and not album tracks either), he wasn't the main songwriter on a single song he did write, in fact, more often than not his contribution was 10% or less of a song.

Can we end this debate for once?

We'll talk about the fact that he actually can't fucking write in the next post. I know this one was probably a little boring, but we needed to get this out of the way to get to the fun part. Which is coming next!

#Louis Tomlinson #One Direction #Liam Payne #Harry Styles #1D #Zayn Malik #Niall Horan #fandom myths #long post

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aedislumen · 6 months ago

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Resources on Prieur de la Côte-d'Or

I decided it was about time to compile a convenient list with all the information and resources I could find about Claude-Antoine Prieur, also known as Prieur de la Côte-d'Or.

It's very much a work in progress: some posts, those without a link, are yet to be written. The list will be updated and edited with time.

♢ Biographies

Full books

Paul Gaffarel - Prieur de la Côte-d'Or, Librairie Noury, Dijon (1900).

Georges Bouchard - Prieur de la Côte-d'Or, un organisateur de la victoire, Librairie Historique R. Claveruil, Paris (1946).

(Not only I plan to transcribe both of them in a lighter, more readable format, but also to write a post comparing the two, though this should wait until I finish reading them fully. For now, from what I could see, none of the two could be considered a definitive Prieur biography: Paul Gaffarel didn't have access to Prieur's personal papers, resulting in a very incomplete work and inaccuracies; as far as Bouchard is concerned, he was no historian but a chemist and it shows both in his very superficial interpretation of the historical period in which Prieur lived and in the uncritical way in which he analyses primary accounts and sources about the latter.

For anyone interested in Prieur's life, I would recommend you to start from the 1946 one: despite the many criticism I personally have towards it, it's more complete, since Bouchard was granted access to Claude-Antoine's papers.)

Summaries

Timeline for Prieur's life

"Profile card" by @saintjustitude.

Translation of Gainot's entry on Prieur mentioned in Dictionnaire des membres du Comité de Salut Public

♢ Primary Sources

Correspondence and personal writings

Prieur's letter to Louis XVI on the importance of having a unified metric system in France

Prieur's letter to Guyton dated 10 Thermidor an II (28 July 1794)

Prieur's speech of 3 Germinal an III

Prieur's last written letter (to Simonne Frilley)

C.A. Prieur - Révelations sur le Comité de Salut Public (I plan to translate them all into English eventually)

Modern transcription of Prieur's first work on the metric system: Mémoire sur la nécessité et les moyens de rendre uniformes, dans le royaume, toutes les mesures d’étendue et de pesanteur

PNG Vector of Prieur's signature (by @senechalum)

Some excerpts from Prieur's first work on the metric system: 1. On the benefit of using the decimal scale 2. Conclusion of the memoir (summary of Prieur’s proposal)

Prieur's speech on the occasion of his admission to Dijon's Academy of Science

CSP decrees written and/or signed by him

Copy of the Letter of the Committee of Public Safety to the Directory of the District of Valence dated 19 Pluviôse [Year II]

♢ Secondary Sources

Camille Richard - Le Comité de Salut Public et les fabrications de guerre sous la Terreur, Rieder Ed., Paris, (1922) (A very interesting book on the warfare during the Terror (93-94), explaining Prieur, Carnot and Lindet's duties and contributions.)

Bertrand Barère on Prieur

Paul Arbelet on Prieur

Paul Arbelet - La jeunesse de Prieur de la Côte-d'Or, Revue du dix-huitième siècle (1916)

Bulletin de la Sabix - n°8 (décembre 1991) (it's a small journal written in French with some articles about the founding of the Polytechnic School and Prieur's role in it)

♢ Posts & Miscellanea

General tag on my blog

Prieur's personality: an introduction by @saintjustitude

Various portraits

Quotes (by him and on him)

Prieur's baptism certificate

Prieur's family crest

On Prieur's family

On Prieur's daughter (some additions by @nesiacha)

On Prieur's disability

Charles Bossut on Prieur's school perfomance at the École de Mézières

On Carnot and Prieur’s friendship (1, 2, 3, 4)

Prieur was never named Compte de l'Empire by Napoléon

On the mutual dislike between Prieur and Bonaparte

Historical inaccuracies in Arte's documentary Un mètre pour mesurer le monde

Prieur's contributions to the establishment of a new unified metric system

How Prieur and Carnot were elected members of the Committee of Public safety

Prieur's duties and contributions as member of the CSP

Prieur's contributions in the foundation and political defense of the École Polytechnique

Prieur's attendance at the CSP

Prieur's depiction in media

The bizarre legend about Prieur knowing that Louis-Charles Capet was freed from the Temple and substituted with another child

#frev #frev sources #prieur de la cote d'or #claude antoine prieur #claude antoine prieur duvernois #prieur de la côte-d'or #prieur duvernois #the amount of times i've written the word “prieur” makes me look insane D:#<- but i'm sane!! believe me!

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trans-corvo · 3 months ago

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I don't dislike the vibe but also don't understand it, can you elaborate a bit if you don't mind? Rn I'm writing a paper about how deleting 9/11 footage from the internet has led to sensationalized "lost media" so I'm genuinely curious not trying to sound cunty

Don't worry, you don't sound rude at all.

Anyway, it is absolutely a worst case scenario thing, but if a government goes fascists and you have in your custody records which can help identify members of whatever marginalized group they're currently villifying, I believe it's better to destroy those records than to let them fall into malicious hands. The Nazis used the records of the Institut für Sexualwissenschaft to find queer Germans and public records offices to identify Jewish residents in the regions they occupied. Archivists tend to make a big deal (rightly) of how archival records can be used to get justice for the victims of state atrocities, but sometimes those same records also enabled these atrocities. Destroying the records isn't the ideal course of action by any metric, it may pose problems down the road for the people you're trying to protect, but better they live to have those problems than die because their records helped identify them.

What I'm saying is, if I had all the records of requests to change the gender markers on US birth certificates right now, my fingers might be pretty itchy.

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calmlb · 1 year ago

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have some silly skk wedding hcs bc. idk i just wanted to yell w someone abt them

chuuya cries in sporadic bursts the day of but taken altogether it's like 3 hrs of hysterical sobbing

dazai doesn't cry at all because he slips into like a shocked fugue state the second he sees chuuya but he DOES bawl like a baby the next morning

nobody who attended remembers past like hour 4 of the wedding and six months later they're still uncovering some of the wild shit they did during the afterparty. this is because the wedding staff accidentally became part of the celebration and the photographer, who was supposed to record the whole thing, ended up sleeping with one of the cast. it was kunikida.

just to be obnoxious ranpo proposes to poe and chuuya has to be held back by a crying w laughter dazai from Physically Attacking Him

dazai insists on having a bouquet to throw, which he purposefully angles for akutagawa to catch. atsushi faints, lucy's face progresses from angry -> considering in real time (they r a throuple real)

chuuya picks his best man/maid of honor fairly easily (hirotsu and kouyou duh) but dazai basically told the ada to figure it out amongst themselves and come back to him with their decisions (he's lazy/genuinely didn't know who to pick and wanted to outsource) and there was Actual Violence

lots of drama over whether or not to invite mori and verlaine. turns out to be a nonissue bc all verlaine does is cry in a corner about a) rimbaud and b) holy shit my little brother is getting married and after hour 6 mori and fukuzawa disappear from the event (neither they nor anyone else remembers this. very lucky)

ango receives an invitation with no context and has like 3 mental breakdowns about what this means for his and dazai's relationship

7 hours in (it was a long party) kenji's cow somehow shows up (he swears up and down it wasn't him, everyone's very confused the next morning)

it was a sunset wedding, dazai wore white and chuuya wore blue

adam and shirase and some other members of the sheep are there. adam makes fast friends with kyouka, meanwhile the former sheep are very narrowly spared dazai's wrath, mostly bc he keeps forgetting they're even there. it's a big wedding

tachihara tried to drunkenly breakdance, gin laughed so hard she thought she got heart palpitations and was afraid for her life. she went to look for mori and walked in on him and fukuzawa. none of them remember this but now gin feels a vague sense of horror every time she looks at her boss and she's not really sure why

yosano tries rizzing kouyou up and fails by any normal metric (yosano: please please please please please please please please please please) but kouyou is Tipsy and Charmed

dazai does indeed burn the marriage certificate (TRY RETURNING ME WITHOUT A RECEIPT, CHIBI!!). chuuya is so in love he starts crying again

higuchi and tanizaki had philosophical discussions about life on the rooftop and accidentally solved the secrets of the universe. they do not remember this

kunikida returns from his steamy rendezvous with the photographer and immediately sets his sights on ango. drunk kunikida knows what he wants (twinkish men) and when he wants them (now). there is a reason one of the most important ideals in his notebook is to Not Drink

the guild is there and are generally having a good time until fitzgerald sees tsujimura (only there as ango's plus-one, got abandoned bc of drunk kunikida's machinations) and calls her a blue-haired liberal, and hey, what's a party without a brawl in the middle of the dance floor

between the guild and the wedding staff half the people at the party weren't even invited. which is why the doa and hunting dogs are also there

kenji, kyouka, q, elise, and aya are having a Kids' Party in a separate room with adam as an extremely enthusiastic babysitter (well, more like occasional check-in-er, he's swinging back and forth between the parties). tecchou joins them after a while and has a great time, as all except aya are extremely fascinated by his unholy food combinations

bram and lovecraft kickstart their enemies-to-lovers arc the second they set eyes on each other

fyodor, dazai, kajii, and nikolai start up a game of Knife Monopoly, to everyone's surprise the extremely determined caterer sweeps them all. sigma is smitten at once and immediately starts to flirt with her (the caterer is a milf who is seduced by sigma's transgender rizz, sigma will eventually have an entire 'convincing the stepkids' family movie arc)

teruko FUCKS IT UP on the dance floor, haruno is so impressed she immediately falls into her first disastrous sapphic crush

hirotsu and natsume mutually agree to restart their homoerotic situationship without ever even actually saying two words to each other, someone has to take skk's place now that they've more or less gotten their shit together

katai wasn't there physically but was supervising through security cameras. he's the only one who will ever know everything that happened that night and deleted the footage due to trauma :( sorry katai

tsujimura and mushitarou bond over how desperately they Do Not Want To Be There

skk Try to have a romantic wedding night(/morning, given how long the afterparty stretched) but they are both too drunk, chuuya trips and falls flat on his face and dazai laughs so hard he throws up

omg i started yapping and then i just didn't stop. i didn't even know i had this many thoughts in my head. i am sending this before i can regret it feel free to delete if u want to

anon. THESE ARE SO GOOD OMG???? i could literally visualize a whole fic just by reading these hcs

adding my comments under the cut so it doesn’t get too long 🫣

ok first of all… the skk crying hcs??? CANON OMG im so obsessed

Ranpo turning skk’s wedding into his engagement party is so true of him. he absolutely would

Dazai totally would insist on a bouquet to toss, & him throwing it at to Akutagawa is so funny 😭

SOMEONE SAVE ANGO PLS-

KENJI’S COW IM SOBBING it reminds me of that wan episode where Atsushi asks Dazai what Yosano needed & he was like “… a cow!” boba eyes & everything

i had never thought of Adam & Kyouka being buddies but my life is changed now tysm for this revelation

NOT GIN BEING SCARRED BY ZENKU SKK 💀 someone get my girl outta there

ok but tipsy + charmed Kouyou is a vision

Chuuya tells Dazai that burning the marriage certificate means they’re not married anymore & that’s when Dazai finally breaks down into tears

ok Higuchi & Tanizaki is another duo i never considered and i LOVE IT???

KUNIANGO SO TRUE

TSUJIMURA A BLUE HAIRED LIBERAL I AM SCREAMING

omg i love the kids party & skk are both good with kids so they definitely would make sure the kids are taken care of 🥹 Adam would be such a good babysitter, and Tetchou too??? omg giving me fic ideas with this one

super invested in this caterer x Sigma arc tbh

ykw i was thinking abt bsd rarepairs the other day & couldn’t figure out who to ship Teruko or Haruno with… should’ve thought of this honestly

SOMEONE SAVE KATAI TOO OMG THAT POOR MAN-

now that you mention it… i actually love the idea of Tsujimura & Mushitaro but i think it’s mostly bc her hair matches his suit PFFT

skk’s ideal honeymoon = SLEEP 😫

i’m so glad you didn’t stop yapping non, this was so wonderful tysm i feel blessed 🥹🩷 please feel free to yell abt hcs or say hi anytime!! 🫶🏻💕💕

#asks 💌#this absolutely made my day uwah 😭💕 tysm nonnie #100% gonna be thinking about these for the next few days. this was so soft & wholesome i feel healed <333 #wedding anon #<-if you’d like a different tag pls let me know <333 #bsd #skk #skk headcanons

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maryhilton07 · 1 year ago

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education-and-certification · 6 months ago

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#L&D Analytics and Metrics Certification

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nnnyxie · 2 years ago

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donnie 💜🍇🔮👾☁️

Donnie, who is the first to intercept April’s call that fateful day.

Donnie, who doesn’t know how to feel when he’s made aware of the whole situation. He had answered April’s call with his usual flair, relaxed and amused at the fact that their best friend was still outside in the bitter New York autumn–winter weather; he slurped loudly on his steaming mug of coffee for emphasis. Because he’s a little bastard.

Donnie, who’s the first one out of his siblings to know.

Donnie, who sets his dumbstruck-ness aside in order to put forth what he does best: work and help. April sounded so distressed and that was enough. He could tell she was masking it, though, and that just augments the entire situation. He doesn’t bother saying much – seeing as Leo had been there to hear the main gist of the conversation. The twins move in perfect sync as they prep their individual stations: he’s set in one part of his lab while his robotic arms are in another, and by the end of it, the Med Bay is set up to his impeccable standards; his monitors are set separately with April’s tracker and a loaded screen ready for data collection on another.

He ends up doing a dramatic arm sweep when cleaning off one of his desks– a desk which was previously occupied by a load of junk that Leo had brought in earlier: snacks, a couple takeout containers, comics, a unicorn lovey, a half full pickle jar for some reason?

–and Leo can’t even be mad. He’s too preoccupied in his own mind.

But it’s a funny memory for them to look back on – solely for the way Donnie was so aggressive with it while focusing on something else entirely.

Donnie, who keeps a neutral standing once you and April arrive, but he’s just as worried as everyone else. When you both make eye contact– he feels it. The shiver at the center of his ninpo. The sense of familiarity is strange and overwhelming . . . he’s never met you before. So, what in the name of Ohm’s Law is this?

Donnie, who feels a fickle sense of kinship with you right from the beginning. He won't be the one to tell you that outright, tho. He was far more taciturn in his approach to you; compared to his blue banded brother, at least. He mirrored Leo's tactic of telling you what he was doing before or as he did it, and he moved with the hands of a kind-hearted scientist. Gentle, swift, and efficient. He may not have joined in on Leo's jokes or cute little comments to distract you – but he did give you a sympathetic expression in spite of himself.

Donnie, who runs a RIDICULOUS AMOUNT OF BACKGROUND CHECKS ON YOU. I’M TALKING METRIC TON WORLDWIDE DATABASE SEARCHES. HE BYPASSED SEVERAL GOVERNMENTAL HEADQUARTERS, PROBABLY ALERTED THE PENTAGON ON ACCIDENT BUT HE’S NOT FOCUSED ON THAT RIGHT NOW–HE KNOWS WHERE YOU’RE FROM, WHO YOU COME FROM (??), HAS ACQUIRED A DIGITAL COPY OF YOUR BIRTH CERTIFICATE SOMEHOW?? (which, might I note, got completely destroyed in the Invasion and there are literally no known traces of it anywhere else–) His statistics are simply unmatched. Bro’s weird. And terrifyingly capable.

Donnie, who offers his own bedroom to you when Leo and he are finished dressing your wounds. He had spoken with Mikey about what would be the best things to feed you, and after the intrinsic nudge he sensed, left the kitchen to whatever aftermath of thinly controlled chaos his brothers would achieve this time. After all, it's not everyday you come into caring for a whole child.

Donnie, who had kept track of your vitals the entire time you were asleep, dropping everything to check on you when something went awry. He forced April to go with him (though it didn't take much convenience) but blessedly, you didn't rouse to full consciousness outside of twitching in your sleep. He left April to soothe you even further back to slumber, loitering nearby, stiff and simply watching.

Donnie, who isn't good at emotions. At all. Didn't really like them, either. They were something that was difficult for him to properly process through and were unpredictable. But he does swear then and there that, in spite of all things… you were important.

Donnie, who says as much while they all discuss what to do with you at the living center of the Lair. Despite his desperate masking of his very off-kilter emotions, he was an open book.

He grit his teeth, he worried his lip, he returned Leo's incredulous eyebrow ridge raise with a glare so cold you could've put it in a drink and called it refreshing… and found that in the grand scheme of things, he didn't care.

There were much more important things to worry about at the moment.

That's what he tells himself.

That's what he tells himself as he ignores the fact that he's the one who's most adamant on taking you in. That's what he tells himself as he and Leo share a knowing look again. That's what he tells himself as his gauntlet beeps to alert them all that you're fully awake now. And that's what he tells himself as he and April descend the halls to you. To you. You.

Donnie, who doesn't stay around for all the excitement once you agree to staying. He had turned away and immediately went to work at getting the whole process started – and he most certainly did not turn away so quickly so everyone couldn't see the palpable shift in his aura. He would never admit it, but he was excited. And that was scary. He hardly ever knew you! As far as he was concerned, you were just a random street child that his best friend who wore their heart on their sleeve took in. And yes, that's true in every sense of the word, but everything happens for a reason, no?

Donnie, who's excited for change.

Donnie, who's entirely terrified that he's excited. For change.

Donnie, who may be terrified of what he's feeling, and when he can't filter through these new feelings, shoves them deep down to work through later. Much, much later. For now, he puts on his Big Boy gloves and rocks it as the genius he is.

Donnie, a veritable professional in all things [Name]. Albeit the road to get where you guys are now was paved with . . . well. Oddities. In instances, he regarded you as another “project” or living statistic breach. As peculiar as it may sound, this process is what aids Donnie in becoming much closer to you in such a short amount of time.

He wouldn’t consider himself to like kids: they were sticky, loud, nosy, reckless and gross . . . but you? You were an exception. You always are.

Donnie, who doesn’t admit you become his favorite in a first-rate amount of time, but it’s blatantly obvious that you become his favorite in a first-rate amount of time.

When you get over the initial shyness and come out of your shell (HA.) a lot more, you find yourself wandering into Donnie a lot. Be it in his lab — ... where this whole thing started, really. The catalytic incident happened like this: you bypass the extensive security system without a cinch, he nearly unleashed all seven gates of tech-grade hell on you by reflex because you actually scared the Softshell out of him– but when he realized it was only you, he simmered down to a cold and sulky puddle, if only a little tense. Turning you away was on the tip of his tongue but . . . something, something, stopped him.

Long story short, you ended up staying. He set you down on a nearby beanbag after a very lecturing warning to not touch anything, and turned back to his work. It might’ve come off as annoyance, but he just didn’t want you to get hurt: physically and emotionally.

(He just sucks a–word at showcasing his emotions /aff◝(ᵔᵕᵔ)◜ Y’all get there eventually, don’t worry.)

Then you prove your worth! You’re respectful, and though your eyes shine with childish curiosity, you don’t disobey Donnie’s words and stay put. Lookie, no touchie. And that’s probably what catches Donnie’s attention at first– very early on; he doesn’t outwardly show it, and Donnie is not one to be easily impressed, but you? You impressed him. Greatly.

Also, you’re willing to listen to him!! He rambles on and on and you sit there with a cute little expression on your face. You’re invested, despite what may be showing on the outside, and just when Donnie has it pegged as everything he’s saying isn’t registering to you, you ask him relative questions.

He’s pretty much hooked from then on out.

You get privileges that nobody else does! He sets up a little corner reserved just for you in his lab, stocks up on your favorite snacks and drinks, and he creates so. many. things for you! Gift giving is his prime love language after all.

He sees you as a ~fresh mind~ And when you initially don't decline his interests in the sciences, he is practically vibrating with excitement! Proceeds to stuff your hungry little brain chock full of everything he knows, and beyond that!

However, even if you don't have a STEM-dominant mind, it's okay! If you happen to doze off while he's well into another one of his infodump rambles, he doesn't get mad. If anything, he's kind of... endeared?

He might tease you a little, but it's all from a place of love.

Concerning academics, the help from Unca Don-Bon always ensures that you at most get a passing grade for all your science-centered subjects! Not to mention the science projects and fairs. Oh man.

Y'all either dominate the entire school every time, or you come within nano inches of getting expelled every time.

Oh also also— this man scoffs at modern-age technology, you can't tell me he doesn't. You ALSO can't tell me he didn't create his phone from scratch. Heck he might've created his entire family's phones from scratch. Bro has his own OS and — when you come of age to start holding onto your own electronics — everything you own is patented by Genius Built™. Of course.

Don't insult him (or do. just for the laughs) by utilizing said modern-age technology. Just don't. (Do it. His reactions are golden every time.) He can appreciate good technology where he sees it, but it's not often. That's why it's so funny.

The most he did once when you gawked over the PS5 was scoop you up into his arms and give a condescending look so low to the contraption, it had you cackling the entire way as he ranted about the highs and lows of technology.

But hey! All your electronics are one of a kind! You can't ever say that~ Any updates or features that you want, he makes it happen. He completely personalizes it to your tastes to make it as comfortable for you as possible.

Your acquaintances are mad jealous of your cool tech and you can only knifecatmeme.jpeg your way through like a boss. (Golden ref. 🙌🏼❤️)

Donnie, who all too gladly helps you with your homework! April has to stop him from literally doing all your work for you.

—y’all be getting into the dumbest situations fr 😭 Be it conversations or infiltrating multiple high–standing scientific research facilities or simply discussing the economic state of the world or literally what's better: flavorless juice or pineapple smoothies, y’all gone be the main ones. That’s all.

(He gets you something yummy afterwards tho! As a treat. Bonus points if you don’t snitch. He always takes responsibility. He throws in an extra head ruffle or two. But he always, always makes sure you don't get in trouble. He's got your back, you have his. Partners in crime, best way to describe y'all.)

“If Little Jimmy has 12 apples and he gives 5.7 of those apples to his friend Becky, multiplies by the 7 to the nth power, then divides that all by the median of an octagon, how much horsepower was Little Jimmy’s dad conducting the neighbor’s car after 15.5 minutes exactly of installation?”

“. . .”

“. . . .”

“. . . . . Seven–”

“What in the fresh hell are they teaching you at that wretched, poor excuse of a school?”

(And Donnie loves school. That’s how you know it’s bad. Zeep, blatantly dissing the public education system? More likely than you would think!)

Cue April walking into the kitchen in her pajamas, all sleepy-eyed and confused, only to see her best friend and child reciting PEMDAS at the table. You start crying and Donnie sings the Pi Song with his best opera voice in support.

Donnie, who is very, very protective over you. He's the type to show, not tell, but believe me - once you're out of sight, he has a lot of colorful things to say to your offenders . . .

your foster mother being a prime example.

Needless to say, your foster mom is now completely ineligible to foster in the system any longer (as well as any and all forms of careers in all of New York. And the surrounding states. Probably the whole world.)

—and if anyone has anything to say about it, all he sees is the flashing image of a sweet little child, homeless and scared and alone, braving it out on the streets.

He'll never let anyone hurt you. His tech is always on standby when it comes to your safety.

And I mean, all his tech.

Donnie, kooky, scientific and calculating uncle Donnie –

. . . forthcoming, thoughtful, heart full of love Donnie, who may not be the best with his words, especially when expressing how much he loves you, but is one of the beloveds in your corner who says it the most.

“Haha! Aw, man. I love you, Purple Rain.”

“Mhmm. And I do suppose you’re enjoyable at most, my Young Apprentice!”

“Unca’ Don-Bon . . .”

“ . . . Ah, Sweet Galileo. I love you too, [Name], you already know I do.”

🫐‧₊˚ ☁️⋅♡𓂃 ࣪🪻 ִֶָ☾.

(we did it boys *passes out on your lap* Donnie Bonnie is doneeee!!! it was under high construction for quite a while, especially after Tumblr ate it, so this is a revamped version! but just as well, no? :'3 hope you enjoy this one, ceejie pie!! 🥰🤍)

ZEEPIE🫀

i’m still a little sick (& delirious) so i’m so sorry if my reply doesn’t make sense—

okay so— as much as i LOVE and ADORE uncle don….

what if…. NOW HEAR ME OUT OKAY?!

WHAT IF ………. it was dad don™️

dad don that ensures a proper education. he’s explaining the (poorly taught) subjects to you better than any teacher ever could. is he a bit aggressive about it? yes. but does he reward you afterwards? also yes!!

dad don who never expected to be seen as any sort of father figure.

it’s donnie who nearly cries when you accidentally call him dad one day.

dad don who raises you to be strong, smart, and independent. dad don who’s so proud of you when you get awarded for any subject.

and donnie— he never expected to adore a child as much as he does you. but— the moment you looked at him and his inventions with such passion and curiosity… he just knew that you would be the only exception (youuu are the onlyyy exceptionnnn). the only kid he’d ever care for.

but going back to uncle tello— he’s the kind of uncle to do illegal pranks with you— especially when it’s towards your school (again, illegal?).

uncle tello can’t even hear you say “love you, uncle” without wanting to burst into tears— not because it’s uncomfortable but— because, he’s so overwhelmed with joy.

uncle donatello that secretly goes to your school on the first day of kindergarten because, he’s so scared that something bad could happen to you. he doesn’t want a ‘purple dragons’ incident (you’re literally 5??).

uncle don and dad don are both so attached to you because, he’s been one of your main caretakers since you were just 3 years old.

donnie has watched you grow into such an amazing person and he can’t help but feel so happy that he was able to witness it all.

teehee (michael jackson style)

(i really hope this makes sense…. i am loopy from meds)

#rottmnt x reader #tmnt x reader #rottmnt donatello #rottmnt headcanons #tmnt headcanons

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zeldahime · 1 year ago

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Zelda Liveblogs a Lancet Paper

Following this post, I am now going to liveblog reading the Lancet paper cited by the Economist article to predict worldwide fertility to drop by 3/4s of its current position if current demographic trends continue. It is an Open Access article, so the entire thing is open for anyone on the internet to read.

Citation:

GBD 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators (March 20, 2024). Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet, 403(10440), 2057-2099. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00550-6.

I refuse to use Chicago style. This is mostly because I memorized APA and don't want to learn a new one.

First, my background: I am not a demographer; I am not trained as a demographer; I have studied it auxiliarily to my other academic pursuits. I fall in a sort of educated in-between. I am currently a Master's student in library and information sciences, and my undergraduate degree was in political science, both at USAmerican universities. However, the field of economics is also very close to my heart, and I would have double-majored in it if the opportunity and financial costs had not been too high to justify it. During the five years I was a college drop-out, I studied economics independently, reading broadly within the field and taking non-certificate courses online. I've been taking non-certificate courses in economics through correspondence or online since I was about nine. I'm not an expert! I do, however, think I'm a fairly well-informed amateur.

And a note on language. This paper refers to birthing parents as mothers and to the demographic that gives birth interchangeably as female and women. I acknowledge that this is a cissexist patriarchical viewpoint that erases transmen, nonbinary and intersex people, and probably others I'm not thinking of. For consistency between my reflections and the paper and ease of reading, I will do the same. I'm conscious I'm part of the problem here, but don't see a way around it without making my bits harder to understand than they have to be.

With that out of the way, here we go:

Methodology (Summary)

This is where me not being a demographer is an important thing to know. I neither know nor normally care about the statistical methods used to determine demography, just that the demographers aren't retracting papers over it. However, I do know that in general the CCF50 (total cohort fertility before the age of 50) is a neater and more accurate measurement to build projections on than the TFR (total fertility rate by year) and that's the methodology the paper's authors went with. This is good and promising. TFR for known years and CCF50 projections sounds like a solid method. 👍

We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined.

I'm very hopeful about these forecasts! They'll show a few different hopeful scenarios.

To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

This is a very responsible thing for the authors to have done, and I am interested to see how this is reflected in the models.

Findings (Summary)

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950,

(Emphasis mine. The numbers in parentheses are the confidence interval.) I think this is the most important takeaway from the whole damn paper. Makes sense, since it's the first line of the findings. If you read nothing else, read these three sentences. Global birthrates are barely above replacement (which, if you recall from my other essay, is generally considered to be ~2.1). To me, this implies lot of problems that traditionally have been considered solvable with population redistribution (meaning, mostly, immigration) may not be solvable that way even if fertility were to stop declining today and hold constant for the rest of the century.

Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa.

Holy shit. I cannot emphasize enough how low a TFR of 1.59 is. This is approximately the current TFR of the United Kingdom, and they're beginning to freak out even though they have relatively easy sources of additional replacement recruitment through the Commonwealth. Imagine that for the whole Earth. With only six countries as a potential source of surplus population to be redistributed.

Funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Makes sense. This is the kind of thing that foundation funds.

Introduction

Low levels of fertility have the potential over time to result in inverted population pyramids with growing numbers of older people and declining working-age populations. These changes are likely to place increasing burdens on health care and social systems, transform labour and consumer markets, and alter patterns of resource use.

Oh man, I wish I'd gone through this paper earlier, I could have just quoted this bit and been done instead of trying to explain it from scratch! 😂

The UN Population Division estimates of past fertility are not compliant with the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) statement in important respects; notably, they do not provide all code for statistical models or explicit details on criteria for exclusion or adjustment of primary data sources. Furthermore, the validity of UN Population Division projections has been questioned due to the assumptions applied in countries experiencing low post-transition fertility dropping below replacement level.

YES GO OFF 👏 The UN Population Division is so much more cagey about their data than the World Bank, it's so annoying, and they keep predicting increases that don't happen. I thought it was so weird as an undergrad but figured it was because of ~bureaucracy~ or privacy laws or whatever. It's nice to be vindicated [redacted] years later.

Our forecasts also suggest that, by 2100, the largest concentrations of livebirths will shift to low-income settings, particularly a subset of countries and territories in sub-Saharan Africa, which are among the most vulnerable to economic and environmental challenges. Extreme shifts in the global distribution of livebirths can be partially ameliorated by improved female education and met need for modern contraception. Outside of this subset of low-income areas, most of the world's countries will experience the repercussions of low fertility, with ageing populations, declining workforces, and inverted population pyramids, which are likely to lead to profound fiscal, economic, and social consequences. National policy makers and the global health community must plan to address these divided sets of demographic challenges emerging worldwide.

This is such an important point for them to make. Demography isn't a vacuum; it has significant real-world effects. By 2100, most babies born will be born in Africa, and we need to plan for that now. By 2100, most countries will not have enough workers, and we need to plan for that now. 2100 is not that far into the future. I, personally, will live to see the beginnings of the effects of this demographic shift, and I'm an adult who pays taxes and has a college degree and shit.

The Data Sources and Processing section is pretty standard and unremarkable. Good job.

Fertility Forecasting

We produced forecasts of fertility using an updated modelling framework (appendix 1 section 3) that improved on the methods in the 2020 study by Vollset and colleagues. In our updated methods, we used not only estimates of female educational attainment and contraceptive met need as covariates, but also estimates of under-5 mortality and population density in habitable areas to account for a larger variation in CCF50 across all countries in the sub-models (appendix 1 section 3.1, appendix 2 figure S2). Similar to Vollset and colleagues, we continued to forecast fertility with CCF50 rather than TFR, because modelling in cohort space is more stable than in period space.

Niiiiice. Covariates are things that, well, vary, alongside the thing you're trying to measure. For fertility, the most obvious one might be age of the mother at first birth; if someone is 16 at first birth, she probably will have more kids than someone who is 30 at first birth, for example. This model also includes how much schooling the mother gets, whether she has contraception, the mortality rate (that is, how many of them die) of children under five, and population density! That's a lot of statistical crunching and their model will be more precise for it. Precise isn't the same as accurate, but I think that with the variables they selected, they will travel in the same direction.

What a pretty equation. I don't understand it, but it's got a certain je ne sais quois.

For the education SDG scenario, the forecasts assume that by 2030, all people will have 12 years or more of education by the age of 25 years and then maintains the same rate of change as the reference scenario up to 2100. For the contraceptive met need scenario, to reflect the SDG scenario of universal access, the forecasts assumed a linear increase in contraceptive coverage to reach 100% by 2030 and then stay constant up to 2100.

I love how optimistic these scenarios are 😂 This truly is the best-case scenario for both the education forecast and the contraceptive forecast! I do hope everybody has 12+ years of education and 100% contraceptive coverage by 2030. Make it happen, António!!!!

(Joke explained: António Guterres is the current Secretary-General of the United Nations, and these goals are absolutely not going to be met by 2030.)

In the pro-natal scenario, we assumed a country will introduce pro-natal policies, such as childcare subsidies, extended parental leave, insurance coverage expansion for infertility treatment, 33 and other forms of support for parents to afford high-quality child-care services, once TFR decreases to less than 1·75. We then made three assumptions on the effects of such policies. First, we assumed the full effect of pro-natal policies will be to increase TFR by 0·2. Second, it will take 5 years after the policy is introduced for the full increase in TFR to occur, and TFR will rise linearly over that time span. Last, we assumed that both the policies and the increase in TFR by 0·2 will endure for the remainder of the century.

The pro-natal scenario is also incredibly optimistic. This kind of response simply hasn't happened in any country that's tried pro-natal policies as envisioned by the authors (my reference cases, just off the top of my head: Japan and France).

The optimism makes sense. They represent extreme cases, in order to contrast possible outcomes versus the reference case. This is good practice! It's just also funny.

Results

The Reference Case

I hate the embedded tables. They have the confidence interval in the same cell as the estimate. How very dare they, that's incredibly inconvenient for me personally.

The chart in Figure 1, however, I think speaks volumes:

It speaks so many volumes that I'm gonna go up and put it above the cut, brb. This chart shows the reference case; that is, it shows the fertility rate if the fertility trends of 1950-2021 continue into the future.

At the national level, estimates of TFR in 2021 ranged from 0·82 (95% UI 0·75–0·89) in South Korea to 6·99 (6·75–7·24) in Chad, with below-replacement levels of fertility (TFR <2·1) in 110 of 204 countries and territories (table 1, figures 2A, 3).

I think this range is neat and goes to show that while the trend is world-wide, it's still not even. Chadian women still give birth to about 7ish kids on average. That's more than 3x replacement, and more than 8.5x the average fertility of South Korea. South Korea is going to have different problems than Chad; Chad probably doesn't have to worry as much about their workforce being unable to sustain a large elderly population. (Don't look so cheerful about it. They've got lots of other stuff to worry about. 😬)

These charts are fascinating to look at to me. I think this really showcases just how dramatic the projected decline is. It's not just the Europe, it's not just wealthy post-industrialized countries, but everywhere. It's in Eswanti, it's in Indonesia, it's in Burkina Faso, it's in China. It really shows just how much Chad is an outlier (adn should still be counted, btw, just because it's an outlier doesn't mean we should discard it; it's dependent on study structure and you can't just throw out entire countries because they have high birth rates on a study of birth rates).

Our estimates indicate that there is approximately a 30-year gap between the time when TFR falls below 2·1 and when the natural rate of population increase turns negative. We forecast that 155 (76·0%) countries and territories will have fertility rates below replacement level in 2050; by 2100, we project this number will increase to 198 (97·1%), with 178 (87·3%) having a negative natural rate of increase (figure 3).

A 30-year gap sounds reasonable. That's about how long it takes for people to have/not have kids, and for their own parents to potentially die, in about equalish numbers (on a global scale, anyway). I do think this gap number is likely to increase as healthcare improves in places that are worse today and as fertility technology increases the age at which people can become pregnant, but 30 is a perfectly respectable number with actual statistical backing.

Alternative scenario fertility forecasts

This is the part I'm really excited about!!!

The first scenario, which assumes meeting the SDG education target by 2030, is estimated to result in global TFRs of 1·65 (95% UI 1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·56 (1·26–1·92) in 2100 (table 2). The second scenario, which assumes meeting the SDG contraceptive met need target by 2030, will produce global TFRs of 1·64 (1·39–1·89) in 2050 and 1·52 (1·21–1·87) in 2100. The third scenario, which incorporates pro-natal policy implementation, is forecast to yield global TFRs of 1·93 (1·69–2·19) in 2050 and 1·68 (1·36–2·04) in 2100. The combined scenario, in which all three other alternative scenarios are applied, is projected to result in a global TFR of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100.

So recall the reference scenario projections: 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100.

I find it interesting that all cases are so incredibly close to reference, with overlapping confidence intervals. Functionally, there's not a lot of difference between a TFR of 1.68 and 1.52. They're both still well below replacement. It's about the difference between Sweden (1.67) and Russia (1.51). Russia, you may have noticed, is waging war about it.*

*This is not a stated goal of the Russian Federation in the Ukraine War. This is me personally making an assertion that the shifting demographics of the Russian population, including the below-replacement birthrate beginning to put pressure on their lacking social safety networks, has contributed to the many complicated and interconnected reasons why the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine, but please do not take me to be the final authority on the matter or interpret this statement as implying that demography of all things is the sole or primary reason for the war.

Discussion

The aforementioned changes in fertility over the coming century will have profound effects on populations, economies, geopolitics, food security, health, and the environment, with a clear demographic divide between the impacts on many middle-to-high-income locations versus many low-income locations. For nearly all countries and territories outside of sub-Saharan Africa, sustained low fertility will produce a contracting population with fewer young people relative to older people before the end of the 21st century. These changes in age structure are likely to present considerable economic challenges caused by a growing dependency ratio of older to working-age population and a shrinking labour force. 42 Unless governments identify unforeseen innovations or funding sources that address the challenges of population ageing, this demographic shift will put increasing pressure on national health insurance, social security programmes, and health-care infrastructure. These same programmes will receive less funding as working-age, tax-paying populations decline, further exacerbating the problem.

This is why the Economist article talks about birthrates the way it does. It's not about white babies or whatever people in the notes are sarcastically ascribing to an article they haven't read. It's about the whole world. There are 150 countries outside of the Sub-Saharan Africa region, and 44 of the 46 countries within Sub-Saharan Africa are projected to feel the many or all of the same effects as well.

It's about the way social security nets are structured and how they're going to fail. It's about the way that elderly people are going to be treated by our societies. It's about me, and it's about you, and it's about making sure that there are enough humans to take care of the other humans that need taking care of.

If we don't increase global fertility rates above replacement, which it increasingly looks like we won't, we need other solutions. The fertility one is easy fuckin' pickings compared to a complete overhaul of society, and you saw how little difference it actually makes. So did the authors:

To date, one strategy to reverse declining fertility in low-fertility settings has been to implement pro-natal policies, such as child-related cash transfers and tax incentives, childcare subsidies, extended parental leave, re-employment rights, and other forms of support for parents to care and pay for their children.49, 50 Yet there are few data to show that such policies have led to strong, sustained rebounds in fertility, with empirical evidence suggesting an effect size of no more than 0·2 additional livebirths per female. [...] Moreover, although pro-natal policies primarily aim to increase births, they also offer additional benefits to society, including better quality of life, greater household gender equality (ie, more equal division of household labour),53 higher rates of female labour force participation,54 lower child-care costs,55 and better maternal health outcomes,56 depending on policy design and contextual factors. In the future, it will be beneficial to perform an in-depth analysis on varying impacts of pro-natal policies in selected countries that have a meaningful impact on population. [...] Importantly, low fertility rates and the modest effects that pro-natal policies might have on them should not be used to justify more draconian measures that limit reproductive rights, such as restricting access to modern contraceptives or abortions.

I just want to highlight that the study authors explicitly argue for certain pro-natal policies that increase quality of life and caution against pro-natal policies that limit rights. These people aren't heartless.

They also discuss at some length the implications of the changing distribution of live births, where by the end of the century most live births will take place in the poorest nations, which are also the ones that will be hardest-hit by climate change. These nations already face famines, military rule, civil wars, terrorism, and climate changed-caused severe heatwaves, droughts, and floods. They advise politicians to take this into account when making policy decisions but don't go into what policy decisions should be made, which is wise since they're demographers and not political scientists, but disappointed me, the political scientist reading the demography paper and hoping to find something to criticize.

My takeaway:

Incredibly interesting paper. As a non-demographer, I think it's very convincing and hope that it sparks a serious conversation about the paths we need to take forward, in our own countries and as a global community. I especially hope that it inspires us to take bold action to drastically change our systems of elder care, which are already being pushed to the limit and will simply break under pressure if fertility rates continue to fall.

#economics tag #demography #the lancet #this is my idea of a fun saturday night #fun with statistics

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engagetal · 12 days ago

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pranjj · 1 month ago

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Udaan by InAmigos Foundation: Elevating Women, Empowering Futures

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