#nathaniel taplin

[thescorpioking1983]

[dirtyxmemories]

Nathaniel Taplin 🏄🏽

[otherfanaccount]

[stickypandaland]

Nathaniel taplin

[70s80sandbeyond]

Nathaniel Taplin

[furiousbearmiracle]

Check it out

[bellapremier]

Jetez-y un œil

[leighlim]

I got COVID just from watching. That's how sick this is.

Anonymous

[thescorpioking1983]

[eg-xiii]

Nathaniel Taplin

[unpensadoranonimo]

Opiniones sobre la situación internacional (15/6/2020)

EEUU tiene un arma económica para hundir China… pero usarla le saldrá caro - Nathaniel Taplin

Lo de Calviño es una trampa - Álvaro Nieto

[itsshaylajay]

Campaign shoot for Nixon

Shot by Nathaniel Taplin

[ericfruits]

China Stimulates Again, but Don't Expect Fireworks

July 24, 2018 6:49 a.m. ET

Cash-strapped Chinese companies surviving on a wing and a prayer received welcome news from on high today: Beijing is yet again kicking the stimulus engine into gear.

The country’s main stock benchmark was up 1.6% Tuesday, after a call from China’s cabinet overnight for more fiscal spending, abundant liquidity, and—perhaps most significant—support for the “reasonable” fundraising needs of local governments’ notorious off-balance-sheet financing vehicles, a key locus of bad debt. The announcement follows a half-trillion yuan ($74 billion) central bank injection into the banking system Monday and, according to local media, incentives for banks to buy low-rated corporate bonds.

Stimulus has arrived.

The yuan was the most immediate casualty: It hit another one-year low against the dollar Tuesday, bringing its decline since May to more than 6%. Commodities could eventually benefit. Copper prices, down nearly 20% since mid-June, have shown signs of stabilizing in recent days.

What form will the jolt take? A cut to the benchmark one-year policy rates still isn’t that likely because, following years of interest-rate liberalization, it isn’t as relevant. The weighted average bank lending rate was 1.6 percentage points above the benchmark rate in the first quarter, while a full 74% of loans were executed above the benchmark rate in March: both record highs. A benchmark rate cut would also leave egg on the face of President Xi Jinping, a strong advocate of a tougher stance on debt.

Instead, the central bank will likely try to lower banks’ funding costs more discreetly while amped up fiscal spending supports infrastructure build—and the balance sheets of indebted downstream industrial companies. One possibility is cheaper loans from the central bank’s key lending facility. Borrowers currently pay 3.3%, a full 70 to 100 basis points more than in the interbank market. That incentivizes another risky buildup of interbank leverage, undoing a key accomplishment of the central bank’s de-risking campaign over the past two years. Interbank trading is already rising again: Volumes on the overnight repo for the last two weeks were both the highest since 2016. Further cuts to banks’ required reserve ratios are also likely.

China’s currency will face further tests, particularly if the Federal Reserve holds its ground against President Donald Trump’s outburst against higher U.S. interest rates last week. And if China’s housing market or factory-gate prices start looking droopy, then a bigger stimulus—and much more currency and commodity volatility—could be in the cards.

Still, the odds remain good that this round of stimulus will be smallish, both because the economy is in better shape than in 2015, and because “deleveraging” has gained political traction under Mr. Xi. The statement Monday night emphasized that policy makers wouldn’t “inundate” the economy with stimulus. Yuan bears and commodity bulls shouldn’t get too excited yet.

Write to Nathaniel Taplin at nathaniel.taplin@wsj.com

https://ift.tt/2OeDpOr

[myfinancialguideme-blog]

Real Time Economics: The Global Economy Is Slowing

New Post has been published on https://financeguideto.com/awesome/real-time-economics-the-global-economy-is-slowing/

Real Time Economics: The Global Economy Is Slowing

This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

It’s tasks day! Appear for a special issue of our newsletter after the U.S. employment report is released. But first, Jeff Sparshott here to take you through the day’s key economic news. Send us your questions, commentaries or suggestions by replying to this email.

U.S.-CHINA TRADE DEAL? NOT YET.

The U.S. and China have yet to set a date for a summit to resolve their trade dispute. Neither side feels an agreement is imminent. “Both sides agree that there has to be significant progress, entailing a help feeling that they’re very close before that happens, ” Terry Branstad, the U.S. envoy to Beijing, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. “We’re not there yet. But we’re closer than we’ve been for a very long time.”

The statements add to growing doubt that President Trump and President Xi Jinping can speedily resolve their yearlong trade combat. Negotiators have been trying to put together an agreement for their chairpeople to clinch face to face, with both sides discussing a summit around March 27 in Florida.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

U.S. nonfarm payrolls for February are expected to increase by 180,000 and the unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 3.9%. (8: 30 a.m. ET) See our preview here.

U.S. housing starts for January are expected to rise to an annual rate of 1.18 million from 1.078 million a month earlier. (8: 30 a.m. ET)

China’s consumer-price index for February is out at 8: 30 p.m. ET.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks on monetary policy normalization at 10:00 p.m. ET.

TOP STORIE

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 3 MONTHS MAKE

The global economy is slow. Central bankers noticed. The European Central bank announced surprise plans to stimulate the Continent’s flagging economy and Federal Reserve officials signaled their growing reluctance to raise U.S. interest rates at all, Nick Timiraos, Tom Fairless and Brian Blackstone report.

The ECB said it would hold interest rates at their current levels at least through the end of this year–months longer than it previously planned. It also will issue a fresh batch of inexpensive long-term loans from the very beginning of September. The stimulus comes less than three months after the ECB phased out a EUR2. 6 trillion ($ 2.9 trillion) bond-buying program.

Fed officials have stopped talking about the need to lift interest rates, a stark change from three months ago. The U.S. economic outlook “appears to have softened against a backdrop of greater downside hazards, ” Fed governor Lael Brainard said.

Spanning the globe: The Bank of Canada rewrote down domestic growth forecasts. Australia’s central bank warn against growing dangers to the global economy. China’s government has unveiled new taxation cuts and increased bank lending to small and private companies to spur growth.

WHAT HAPPENED?

Europe’s economy has been rattled by shocks ranging from a slowdown in China to mass protests in France and bottlenecks in Germany’s auto industry. China has been held back by trade tensions, a cooling property marketplace, slowing infrastructure investment and massive debt levels. The U.S. isn’t immune to global crosscurrents.

The latest bad sign: China’s exports tumbled in February, reflecting weaker global demand, the bite of U.S. tariffs and aberrations from the Lunar New Year holiday. To get rid of holiday-related skew, blend January and February: Exportations during the two months were 4.6% lower than a year earlier, similar to December’s drop of 4.4%. The overall image is of China starting to feel real heat from U.S. trade pressure–but not utter collapse, Nathaniel Taplin writes.

IT’S NOT ALL BAD!

The U.S. employment report is expected to show the economy added tasks for the 101 st straight month, pushing the streak further into record territory. What’s going on under the hood? We’ve noted that young women are driving a resurgence in labor force participation. The Atlanta Fed’s John Robertson slices the data again and procures Hispanic girls, in particular, are supporting those numbers: They accounted for almost two-thirds of the increase in female participation rates during the last three years. One big factor: a decline in family or household responsibilities. That are commensurate with: 1.) Falling fertility rates, which means fewer kids to take care of, and 2.) Improving educational attainment and placement in higher-wage jobs, which entails women who do have kids are better able to afford child care.

HOT LABOR MARKET, PART 1

Where are the strongest labour markets in the U.S .? Technology hotbeds, energy hubs and college townships, according to a new WSJ ranking. See how your city stacks up here.

HOT LABOR MARKET, PART 2

Costco Wholesale Corp. said it has raised commence wages for store workers to $15 an hour, as a tight U.S. labor market continues to drive fierce competitor for hourly staffers. It is the second such increased number of less than a year–the retailer created its hourly minimum to $14 from $13 last June, Sarah Nassauer and Micah Maidenberg report. Costco hires around 245,000 workers.

WORK SMARTER, NOT HARDER

In theory, companies that can’t find enough employees should be investing in labor-saving technology. It’s too soon to say that’s happening on a broad scale, but U.S. worker productivity is depicting glimmers of recovery. Between April and December, worker output per hour registered the strongest nine-month stretching of growth since 2010, Sharon Nunn reports.

Productivity and labor force growth are two key components of overall economic activity. Worker productivity gains can support rising wages, and improving living standards, without spurring too much inflation.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

In a dark room, you move with tiny steps. — European Central bank President Mario Draghi, discussing the ECB’s latest stimulus measures

TWEET OF THE DAY

[wsj-responsive-sandbox id= “0”]

WHAT ELSE WE’RE READING

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s take on modern monetary hypothesi? “That’s garbage, ” Fink said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “I’m a big believer that deficits do matter. I’m a big believer that deficits are going to be driving interest rates much higher and it is unable to drive them to an untenable level.”

Pass the baton. Harvard Economics Professor N. Gregory Mankiw will step down from teaching the school’s flagship introductory course on economics. “After 14 years as ec 10 course head, as well as one year long ago as a segment leader, I decided it was time to pass the baton, ” he told the Harvard Crimson. “Teaching ec 10 has been a wonderful experience, but I am looking forward to new pedagogical challenges.”

The “Made in China 2025 ” program was a waste of taxpayers’ fund. “[ The government] wants industries to be at the top notch by then, but those industries are not predictable and the government should not have thought it had the ability to predict what is not foreseeable, ” China’s former finance minister Lou Jiwei says in the South China Morning Post.

Read more: blogs.wsj.com

[moneyhealthfinance-blog]

America's Glaring Weak Spot in a Trade War? The Lowly Soybean

America's Glaring Weak Spot in a Trade War? The Lowly Soybean

By <div class="author mobile-scrim hasMenu" data-scrim="{"type":"author","header":"Nathaniel Taplin","subhead":"The Wall Street Journal","list":[{"type":"link","icon":"bio","url":"https://www.wsj.com/news/author/8576","text":"Biography"},{"type":"link","icon":"email","url":"mailto:nathaniel.ta... WSJ.com: Markets

[thescorpioking1983]