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there-must-be-a-lock · 4 years ago

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Not Your Average Love Story (SPN x CM)

Sam Winchester x Spencer Reid

Word Count: ~3490

Warnings: Show-level violence, but that’s about it! It’s bizarrely fluffy.

A/N: My first square for @cmbingo: “meet the parents.” This is essentially a rewrite of Supernatural 12x01, “Keep Calm and Carry On,” except Spencer and Sam are adorable dorky murder boyfriends.

Thanks to @fangirlxwritesx67 for the read-through!

When Spencer realizes he’s in love with Sam, he’s on a plane, hoping to make it to Kansas before the sun goes dark.

He looks out the window at the too-orange light, thinking, this is a weird twist for a love story. He turns that thought over in his mind and realizes: love.

Oh.

It takes him by surprise, for some reason, but only for a second. He’s starting to get used to surprises.

* * *

Spencer has always been self-aware enough to realize that his intellect and his lack of social skills would not make it easy to strike up a traditional relationship. Then, of course, you factor in his obsessive tendencies, his attachment issues, and the stresses of his job, and it’s not actually surprising that he made it past the age of thirty before he fell in love for the first time. Considering how that ended, it’s definitely a surprise — if not a minor miracle — that he’s made it this far with Sam.

Then again, nothing about their relationship has been predictable. Spencer never guessed he’d meet his future partner while dissecting a dessicated brain.

Ever since Spencer Reid met Sam Winchester, his life has been one surprise after another.

* * *

The third unanswered call makes him nervous, but he figures Sam must be asleep, or at least he should be asleep. If Spencer finds himself doing ninety mph in his tiny rental car, it’s mostly because Kansas highways don’t seem to follow the usual laws of physics. They’re flat and endless and eerie in the grey pre-dawn light.

The moment he opens the door, Spencer knows something is wrong. He spares a wishful thought for his Kevlar, and then he draws his gun, falling automatically into the too-familiar stance as he silently descends the stairs.

There’s blood on the floor.

This doesn’t surprise him in the slightest.

* * *

Spencer tends to spend a lot of time visualizing hypothetical problems and their solutions. He’s good at imagining all the potential outcomes of a particular scenario and calculating their likelihoods based on given variables. He frequently does this at night, instead of sleeping.

In other words, he worries a lot.

If he were in a normal relationship he would probably worry about normal things. For example: whether Spencer was misreading the situation, whether it was okay to run a thorough background check on them, and what to wear on a date. What would their first argument be about? What would their parents think of him? What would his mom think of them?

About thirty-six hours after they met, Sam saved Spencer’s mom from a wraith; first impressions don’t get much better than that.

The normal worries were rapidly eclipsed by Sam-specific worries. For example: what if he got cursed, what if he got possessed, and were there angels or demons after him this week. Why couldn’t Dean either drive a little slower or get a car with less antiquated safety features? How would Spencer help if Sam got hurt on the job? Should he tell the B.A.U. what he’s been learning about the supernatural?

He does end up telling them everything; Sam and Dean show up at a crime scene, Hotch almost arrests them, and it turns out that one of the serial killers they’ve been hunting for a decade is actually a skinwalker.

But the point is that when Spencer sees blood on the floor, he isn’t surprised. He’s visualized this scenario — and several hundred variations on it — before.

* * *

He hears a raised voice in the library and takes the steps two at a time. There are two complete strangers there, a blonde woman aiming a gun at a man, and Spencer’s training kicks in before he can figure out why she looks familiar.

“Federal agent, hands in the air,” he barks.

He can see the split-second when the woman thinks about turning her gun on him, but she seems to think better of it, and she sets the gun down slowly before putting her hands in the air.

“Who are you?” the man demands. “What did you do with Sam?”

“What — Sam?” Spencer asks, panic rising in his throat. “Spencer Reid, FBI. Who —”

“You’re Spencer?” he asks, brow furrowed.

Spencer realizes: “You’re Castiel.”

“Whoa, whoa, hey, gun down,” Dean interrupts. “It’s okay! She’s okay, Spence!”

“Dean? You’re alive?” Castiel grabs him before he can say anything else.

Spencer lowers his gun slowly. He’s starting to hyperventilate. He wants to know how Dean is still alive, yes, but he’s watching the way they embrace, the smile on Cas’s face and the way Dean’s shoulders seem to drop like he’s relaxing for the first time in a long time, and all he can think about is —

“Can somebody tell me where the hell Sam is?” Spencer asks, voice cracking embarrassingly.

“He’s not here,” Castiel says.

The woman looks between Cas and Spencer, eyes wide, and it’s not clear who she’s talking to when she asks, “Who are you?”

“He’s my —” Dean starts.

Cas cuts him off by saying, “He’s Sam’s —” at the same time Spencer blurts out, “He’s an angel.”

“Come again?” the woman asks, and when she sees the way Dean shifts nervously, she adds, “Not that, I don’t care about — you said angel?”

“Angel. You know. Wings, harp.”

“Not actually,” Spencer tells her, just as Cas scowls and says, “No, I don’t have a harp.”

“Cas, Spencer,” Dean says, and he pauses, swallowing hard. “This is Mary. Mary Winchester.”

Spencer and Cas speak in unison again, Cas in a gruff monotone as Spencer’s voice goes squeaky: “Your mother?”

Of all the things Spencer has worried about, he never thought he would never have to worry about making a bad first impression on Sam’s parents. Sam’s parents are dead.

Except… apparently not. Apparently Sam’s mom has been resurrected, and Spencer just pulled a gun on her.

“Nice to meet you,” Mary says softly, with a tentative smile.

For a second he freezes, staring at her, and his mind starts racing, recalculating, replanning, getting his worrying done after the fact, and Spencer has no idea what to say. He never made a plan for this.

“Nice to meet you,” he responds, flushing. “Um. Sorry about that.”

“I’d have done the same thing if I were you.” She smiles, and she doesn’t look much like Sam, but the kindness in her eyes is so very familiar. Spencer’s breath catches.

“She’s not kidding, shoulda seen the way she pinned me when I tried to introduce myself,” Dean grumbles. Then he turns to Castiel and says, “Tell me what happened to Sam.”

As Castiel starts to explain the details, Spencer calls Penelope.

“FBI, office of the brilliant but under-caffeinated,” she says, slightly less chirpy than he’s used to, and Spencer realizes how early it is. Oops.

“It’s me.”

“Oh! Boy genius! They did it, huh? Hotch called us back in, like, as soon as the sun came back on, because apparently criminals don’t stop just because the world is ending, or whatever, but he wanted to give you a day at least — hey, are you okay? How’s that handsome lumberjack of yours?”

“Sam’s missing,” Spencer says without preamble. “I need your help.”

It takes Penelope approximately a minute to find the car and identify the driver, but the identity of his passenger is a little more elusive. She types away, keys clattering ceaselessly in the background, as Spencer yawns.

“Got it! Okay, I have a cell number. If you call her, I can track it. You ready?”

“Dean, give me your phone?” Spencer asks, holding out a hand. “You stay on the line with Penelope. She can tell you as soon as she gets the address.”

“I can make the call,” Dean says. “I want to have a word with this bitch.”

“Dean,” Spencer snaps. “First of all, I’m the only person here who’s trained in hostage negotiation. Finding people is literally in my job description.”

“This isn’t a fuckin’ bank holdup, this is my brother,” Dean retorts. “It’s my job to take care of him.”

“If you call her a bitch and start in on your threatening macho bullshit, she’s going to hang up, or worse, she’s going to believe you, and then she’ll be trying to get you before you can get to Sam. I know how to talk to people like this. If I can convince her I’m scared, that I’m not a real threat, she might give something away.”

“But —”

“Secondly, the only people who know you’re alive are in this room right now, which means you’re our best chance to take her by surprise when we get there, so shut up and let me do my job.”

“You really think you can find him,” Dean says, and it’s not a question. He holds out his phone with a look of begrudging respect.

“Yes.”

Spencer thinks, I have to.

* * *

People aren’t all the same, but if you could quantify the concept of normal, if you could look at it statistically, most people would fall within the standard deviation. Most of their lives take an even, predictable shape, Spencer thinks. There are plenty of other people like them, and they seem to fit with each other, too, interlocking in an easy way that Spencer has always envied.

Spencer’s got all these awkward uneven edges and strange angles. He’s not normal, and he’s always known that.

For a long time, he doesn’t think he’ll ever find someone who’ll fit easily, not without changing him, trying to reshape him in some way. He doesn’t want to change, but he gets lonely. Most people (friends, let alone lovers) don’t last long before they get sick of his quirks. Some try longer than others, but one way or another, there’s always some jarring part of him that doesn’t match what they want.

What if they like to sleep with the windows open, even in the winter? Or if they sleep with the air conditioning cranked up in the summer? Spencer knows he should be better about compromising on little things like that, but he really prefers things a certain way. He knows it’s neurotic. He can’t help it.

Spencer is used to people staring blankly when he starts talking, but at what point will it drive someone away? When will they stop pretending to care about his Doctor Who opinions? When will they get bored of his info-dumping?

And then there are the really difficult questions. How does he tell someone he used to be an addict? What if he doesn’t want to tell them about being kidnapped and tortured? What if he does, and then they start asking questions? How does he explain his PTSD, or his nightmares, or his bedtime routine of triple-checking every lock and setting his gun within arm’s reach?

At first, when he met Sam, Spencer worried about arguments and parents and all the other normal things, but more importantly, he worried about himself. He wondered which of his irregularities would finally make Sam give up on his attempts to fit Spencer into his life.

Neither of them sleep much, but when they do end up sharing a bed, Sam has his own routine; while Spencer checks the locks, Sam draws warding symbols, lines each window and door with salt, and sets his gun within reach. He likes the windows closed and the thermostat above 68, because, he explains simply, “Lucifer runs cold.”

Speaking of Lucifer. Sam understands addiction, kidnapping, torture, PTSD, and nightmares, and he doesn’t ask Spencer to tell his stories before he’s ready. Sam has stories of his own.

Sam also has his own Doctor Who opinions, and those opinions were the cause of their very first argument. Sam is wrong, but Spencer loves that he cares enough to argue.

The first time Spencer started rambling about serial killers, he noticed Sam frowning and cut himself off, embarrassed, ready to apologize. Sam just pulled out a journal and asked him to repeat what he’d said, so that Sam could do more research on the subject later.

Sam doesn’t expect him to change. He doesn’t try to re-shape Spencer. His life is just as weird, and by all logic they shouldn’t fit, but they do. And Spencer doesn’t feel any less himself, but suddenly he realizes that he must’ve changed along the way, because he can’t imagine his life without Sam any more; if they can’t find him, his absence is going to tear Spencer apart.

* * *

It’s a tense car ride, to say the least.

Hell of a first impression, Spencer thinks again, glancing at Mary’s pale, worried face in the rearview.

Castiel and Mary are in the backseat, and they’re trying to make small talk, but Castiel seems to be about as good as Spencer at the whole “casual conversation” thing. Sam’s told him so much about Castiel, Spencer feels like he knows him, but they’ve never actually crossed paths before.

And then there’s Dean, who’s got his jaw clenched, staring straight ahead. Spencer gives him directions, and he grunts or nods, but he doesn’t say anything else.

Dean intimidates the hell out of him, but they’ve always gotten along fine, maybe because Spencer’s never yelled at him before. He’s very aware that arguing with Dean Winchester is usually fruitless at best (and deadly at worst), but he’s never been good at holding his tongue when he’s upset.

“I’m sorry,” Spencer manages to mutter eventually.

“Huh?” Dean looks at him, frowning.

“About earlier. I didn’t mean to — um.”

“Nah, it’s fine,” Dean says gruffly.

“I was upset. I’m sorry.”

Dean shrugs, and he hesitates before adding, “You were right.” He looks as surprised to be saying it as Spencer is to hear it.

Spencer blinks at him a couple times before hurriedly saying, “Turn left. There.”

Cas and Mary are having a quiet conversation about the weirdness of technology, and Spencer is about to join them when Dean speaks up again.

“Garcia — she said something funny.”

“Uh oh.”

Dean snorts. “Nah, not like that. Before she hung up, she told me not to worry. Said of everybody she knows, Sam probably has the second-best odds of escaping any poor sap who tries to abduct him.”

“Second best?”

“That’s what I said. But apparently that title belongs to you.”

“I wouldn’t bet on it. All I can do is talk myself out, he’s stronger.” Spencer gives him a crooked attempt at a smile; it feels awkward on his face, but he means it when he says, “He’ll be okay.”

* * *

The funny thing is, Spencer has been in this situation before.

When it was Maeve, though, he panicked, because all he could think about was how she must feel: scared, helpless. Spencer has too much empathy sometimes. Imagining Maeve’s helplessness made him feel like he was drowning.

This is different. He’s not exactly zen about the whole situation, of course; it feels like a piece of him is missing, but he’s clear-headed, because he knows that Sam is anything but helpless. He trusts Sam to take care of himself.

Aside from the supernatural element, Sam’s job is astoundingly similar to Spencer’s, and he’s astoundingly good at it. The Winchesters have consulted on a couple cases, now, for the B.A.U. (Spencer’s still not sure how Hotch manages the paperwork) and they try to find cases in the same general area as wherever Spencer winds up, so they’ve gotten to work together a few times. Sam’s sheer competence at his job might be the most attractive thing Spencer has ever seen.

Spencer used to imagine a quiet, mundane romance. He always just assumed he’d find someone whose life was more normal than his, and he was resigned to the stress it would cause in a relationship. He’d forget to call, he’d miss dinner, he’d have to cancel plans and be absent from so much of what constituted a normal domestic life, and his partner would be left at home, alone, all too aware of how much danger Spencer could be in, helpless to do anything about it.

Instead, Spencer found Sam. Spencer never has to feel guilty about missing dinner, because Sam isn’t at home worrying about him. Sam is out there saving the world.

Sam is not going to wait for Spencer to rescue him; he might not even need rescuing, at this point. Instead of worrying about what Sam is doing and whether he’s scared, Spencer can focus on his own plan.

* * *

He and Dean circle slowly around the house. They spot the entrance to the basement, and Dean almost runs right to it, but Spencer grabs his arm and points to the sigils around the door.

Spencer notices movement through a window next to the back door, and when they creep up to get a glimpse inside, he sees two women. One is the blonde — the brains of the operation — and the other is stockier, clearly the muscle.

After a quick conversation in whispers and gestures, Dean sneaks around to the side of the house opposite the basement, and a second later Spencer hears him shout. He waits a couple seconds and glances in the window again, and sure enough, the bigger woman is gone while the blonde is watching something on a computer monitor, looking agitated. Security cameras, maybe.

Spencer is about to go inside when he sees the blonde start, look around, and grab a cattle prod. Then she’s hurrying toward a door, sliding back a heavy deadbolt, and Spencer sees a dark stairwell that must lead to the basement.

He slips through the door and follows her.

For a split-second, the scene in the basement almost stops his heart. Sam is lying on the floor, completely still, his head surrounded by a puddle of blood.

But before Spencer can really process what he’s seeing, let alone react, Sam is in motion: lashing out, grabbing her by the throat, shoving her against the wall. Spencer descends the stairs quietly with his gun at the ready, trying not to make any noise that might distract Sam right now.

Sam doesn’t need his help. There’s blood on his damp clothes and his arms are shaking as the blonde goes limp in his grip, but he’s alive; he doesn’t need Spencer’s help, and Spencer isn’t the slightest bit surprised.

When Sam turns and sees him, he doesn’t look surprised either. He just smiles, all dimples and sparkling eyes in spite of his obvious pain as he limps over.

“Sorry that took me so long,” Spencer says casually, trying to control his grin. He doesn’t want to holster his gun yet, so he keeps it trained on the woman and hugs Sam one-armed.

Sam wraps his arms around Spencer, holding on tight. Spencer rests his forehead on Sam’s shoulder, taking a second to breathe as he feels missing pieces sliding neatly into place.

“Love you,” Sam says, and the words sound like a sigh of relief. He pulls back, and he looks surprised, like he didn’t actually mean to say that out loud.

Spencer’s about to reply when he sees the woman struggling to her feet, reaching for her cattle prod, and so instead he says, “Look out.”

Sam steps sideways to give him a clear shot. Spencer shoots her in the thigh and she screams as she falls to the floor.

“See how you like it,” Sam tells her, with a vicious little smile.

“I love you too,” Spencer blurts out.

For a second they both pause, grinning at each other like idiots, their surroundings forgotten.

Then there’s a sound from overhead, and Sam asks hurriedly, “The other one. Did you take her out already?”

“Dean’s got her,” Spencer tells him. “We should check on him, then we can come back down and deal with — Sam?”

At first he can’t figure out why Sam’s mouth drops open like that, shocked and disbelieving. Then he remembers.

“Dean’s alive?” Sam asks, a smile spreading slowly over his face. Spencer nods, wrapping an arm around Sam’s ribs, supporting him as he limps gingerly toward the stairs. It feels like he’s forgetting something.

There’s another noise, and then Mary is in the doorway, looking down at them.

Oh.

Sam turns to Spencer silently, like he’s waiting for confirmation that she’s real.

Spencer nods. “Yeah. So — um. Surprise?”

Sam doesn’t actually seem all that surprised, because… of course he doesn’t. He blinks at Spencer a couple times and then he grins.

“You met my mom before I did,” Sam says, breathless and amused, and grabs the banister to haul himself up the stairs. Spencer laughs and follows him, smiling to himself.

It’s not your average “meet the parents” scene, but somehow, it fits Sam and Spencer perfectly.

Nothing about their love story has been normal. Why start now?

#cmbingo21 #criminal minds #supernatural #sam winchester x spencer reid #spencer reid fic #sam winchester fic

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integralconcepts52-blog · 5 years ago

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Six Sigma and Design of Experiments (DOE)

DOE assists to gain access to through the vast level of information gathered within the Six Sigma challenge implementation process and in developing experiments which are needed to lessen modifications and improve efficiency.

What is DOE?

Design of experiments is a formal statistical instrument that helps to ensure the testing phase of the task generates knowledge that might be very theraputic for more changes to the process. The goal is to increase return on investment Design of Experiments Training.

It's a systematic process to comprehend the cause and effect relationship among the various factors that influence the process and the variable effects achieved thereby. It actually brings about the actual existence of any relation in the trigger and effect. Using the advanced statistical instruments, it allows to know the variations and to control them.

This can help to improve the predictability of the company processes.

DOE is in relation to factors, degrees and responses. One factor in this case is an independent variable, which can be given different values with the reason to achieve varied results. The level is the state identified for that factor.

Their state differs and brings out different results. These email address details are the answers reached from the experiment at various levels. The outcome accomplished can be numerical or discrete values.

Put simply, Six Sigma professionals can select those experiment patterns which are ideal to reach the desired results from such experimentation.

When choosing the facets and their state for experiment , those facets that'll generate essential knowledge relative to the estimated benefits will undoubtedly be selected. The sequence of the experiment , which operates randomly, will allow all facets to influence all runs of the experiment.

The disadvantage of a non-random run is the systematic influence the external factors could have on the experiment. Replication might help give higher levels of data and larger price to the results. Successfully done experiments will bring out the consequence and the change in levels is wearing the responses.

This can help to understand the most effective option for the method development and lowering of variation.

Great things about DOE

DOE helps you to analyze the info to attain quantifiable brings about undertake experiments and produce changes to the operations to achieve the Six Sigma level. If Six Sigma concepts and methodologies aren't executed, precisely the estimated benefits would not be achieved and it'll hit the underside range link between the corporation adversely.

Being an organized way to approach the experiments to be undertaken, Six Sigma professionals may ensure the very best matched tests, which are conducted and which often cause to reach the expected improvements. As the goal to create techniques is to attain the exact same quality of the products and companies, the modifications have to be identified and eliminated.

One of many valuable tools in the Six Sigma toolbox is Design of Experiments. Design of Experiment (DOE) is really a organized process that really helps to uncover associations usually concealed inside hills of data. Within the structure of a Six Sigma challenge, Design of Experiments is just a organized method of identifying the facets within a process that contribute to unique consequences, then making important checks that verify probable development ideas or theories.

The majority of us are knowledgeable about the concept of testing within the areas of research and medicine. Experiments can be designed and conducted for any method in any field not just testing physics equations or new drugs or medical procedures. Design of Experiments is an official statistical practices needed to make sure that the testing or piloting of any new improvement ideas maximize the informational possible of the test and finally the come back to the business. The fundamental maxims of trigger and influence and conversation of factors work everywhere, including production and service organizations. Design of Experiments is an prepared approach for deciding the associations between factors that affect an activity and the variable results of that process. Additionally it provides to validate if a trigger and influence relationship actually does occur and to identify the essential several factors behind variation.

Simply speaking, Design of Experiments within Six Sigma is just a performance development system that employs sophisticated statistical techniques to comprehend and control difference, thus improving predictability of organization processes. Fresh techniques are used to quantify formerly undefined factors and relationships between factors. This really is accomplished through crafting in the pipeline experiments where managed changes of factors will decide which factors have the largest effect on quality characteristics. Though the systematic observance of the experiments and mathematical dimensions of the results, of good use information can be built and examined to comprehend the relative significance of different facets to over all method variability.

The basic methods of Design of Experiments are factors, degrees, and responses. One factor is an independent variable. In a in the offing experiment , the factors are deliberately varied in a predetermined manner. An even is really a state of the factor that is deliberately varied. Levels may be discrete (present/absent) or numeric. Testing is usually done at two, or occasionally three levels for every single element; each split stage constituting an fresh run. The reactions, actually the outcomes of the fresh operates, are calculated at each work of every factor-level combination. The reaction can also be distinct or statistical values.

An successful experimental design differs the multiple facets in a smart and managed sequence. Response data will then be gathered in an intelligible way.

Mixing all facets and their degrees can become too large and high priced of an activity, so educated deductions must certanly be made regarding which factors will generate the absolute most pertinent knowledge that'll provide enough information for comfortable results. The collection of works in the experiment should be randomized. Randomization is vital to give all additional factors the same possiblity to influence every run of the experiment. A non-randomized experiment stands a great threat of additional facets acting in a systematic fashion, adding noise to the response. Numerous units of experimental goes, named reproduction, will provide more data and larger self-confidence in assessing the results. If the budget enables, performing more replications is desirable.

Successfully developed experiments may show the connection involving the modify in amount of each of the factors and the change in response. After these relationships are understood, they may be used to locate "what's most useful" methods to method development and variation reduction. Design of Experiments is a crucial area of the Six Sigma methodology. It allows you to see in to the center of the process and what actually pushes it.

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annieboltonworld · 4 years ago

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Juniper Publishers-Open Access Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources

Assesses the Resilience Index to Sea Level Rise Risk of Alexandria Governorate, Egypt

Authored by Mamdouh M El-Hattab

Abstract

Alexandria Governorate is vulnerable to sea level rise risks, especially with its current high-density coastal communities and the rapidly increasing population rates. Most of the Governorate’s inhabitants are living in the low-lying land and some are even below sea level. Moreover, the Governorate has been identified as one of the ‘Mediterranean vulnerable sites’. This paper assesses the resilience of Alexandria Governorate to sea level rise risk, focusing on hazard assessment (Inundation) as one of the most significant physical impacts. Resilience index to SLR for each district in the study area is developed using vulnerable built-up areas, vulnerable population and socioeconomic conditions (represented in the unemployment rate, annual population growth and Human Development Index (HDI).

Keywords: Alexandria Governorate; Sea level rise (SLR); Resilience; Socioeconomic Conditions; Human Development Index (HDI)

Introduction

Egypt is considered one of the top five countries expected to be most impacted with SLR due to allow elevation in the Nile delta region El-Raey [1], Frihy [2], Batisha [3], El-Hattab [4] Soha [5]. Alexandria Governorate as the second capital of Egypt is built on a narrow and partially elevated coastal ridge facing the sea and is exposed to many environmental problems such as SLR, tsunami, earthquake, flood by rain and other risks [1]. Moreover, informal areas, which house one-third of Alexandria’s total population, deteriorating infrastructure in an old and dense part of the Governorate [6] and fast urbanization of surrounding areas over reclaimed wetlands and other low-lying areas make the Governorate particularly vulnerable to these hazards. Previous studies proved that Alexandria is one of the most vulnerable Governorates to SLR Alexandria is vulnerable to SLR because of its natural topography of flat, low land El-Raey [7-9]. Moreover, the urbanization process in Alexandria is rapidly increasing, putting pressure on infrastructure and services that limit resilience and the capacity to cope SLR. The higher percentage of the population located in Low Elevation Coastal Zones (LECZ), making the Governorate vulnerable to the risks of SLR. With about 80% of the population living within 100 km of the coast, this has led to a concentration of economic activity and livelihoods in coastal mega cities.

IPCC, in its Third Assessment report, defined resilience as the “amount of change or amount of pressure a system can undergo without changing state” [10]. A more detailed definition, provided by the AR5 of the IPCC defined resilience as “the capacity of a social-ecological system to cope with a hazardous event or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain its essential function, identity, and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning, and transformation” Arctic Council [11]. Onneshan [12] defined Resilience refers to the capacity of an individual or community to cope with stress, overcome adversity or adapt positively to change. Some risk factors, such as drought, unemployment, or a lack of services, may exist at a community-wide level. Resilience is defined as “the ability of a system to withstand or accommodate stresses and shocks such as climate impacts, while still maintaining its function” [13-15].

Onneshan [12] classified resilience into ecological and social. A measure of how much disturbance an ecosystem can handle without shifting qualitatively into a different state. It is the capacity of a system to both withstand shocks and to rebuild itself after damage. The ability of human communities to withstand and recover from stresses such as environmental change, social and economic or political upheaval. Resilience is what enables the exposed elements to withstand, cope and recover from disaster impacts Noy and Yonson [15]. In terms of disaster risk reduction priorities, vulnerability is typically linked to prevention, preparedness, and mitigation; while resilience, to rehabilitation, reconstruction, and recovery. According to a logical sequence of events (pre-event, disaster and post-event situation), are avulnerability, resilience (pre-event), hazard, risk (disaster), damage, and loss (post-event) Modica and Zoboli [16]. UKaid [17] expressed risk as a function of hazard exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity (Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability / Resilience).

Study Area

Alexandria Governorate is located approximately between 30°50’ to 31°40’ north and 29°40’ to 32°35’ east. The Governorate has a waterfront that extends for 60 km, from Abu-Qir Bay in the east to Sidi Krier in the west and includes a number of beaches and harbors. It extends about (32 km) along the coast of the Mediterranean Sea in north-central Egypt. It lies northwest of the Nile delta and occupies a T-shaped peninsula. Alexandria is bounded by the Mediterranean Sea in the north, Buhayra Governorate in the east and the south, and Matrouh Governorate in the west as shown (Figure 1). While, Alexandria Governorate is extended in the longitudinal direction, to accommodate the growth in population, between the Mediterranean coast and Mary out Lake (Mareotis) that gave the Governorate a semi rectangle shape with more than 30 km length and around 6 km width (Figure 2). Alexandria is an urban Governorate that includes Alexandria Governorate, the new industrial town and Borg El-Arab district [18]. States that the current boundary of the urban agglomeration of Alexandria Governorate consists of seven districts (15 sections (Qism) and 129 Shyakha), Al- Montazah, Sharq (East), Wasat (Middle), Gharb (West), Al- Gomrok, Al-Agami, and Al-Amereya, along with the Borg Al Arab Governorate and three villages.

Materials and Materials

ASTER (Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) GDEM Version 2 (GDEM2) data and LANDDSAT OLI (2015) satellite image covering the study area were used. Population census in 2015 is 4,700,088.18 according to CAPMAS [19]. The spatial distribution of the population was found to be rather uneven between the different districts of Alexandria, with the inner district, Wasat, reaching its saturation level as seen in (Figure 3). The results of the last census in each district of Alexandria population according to CAPMAS [19] are given in (Table 1). The average rate of increase in the whole Governorate was 1.36%. Built-up areas of Alexandria Governorate are presented in (Table 2) and (Figure 3). The unemployment rate ranged between 0.85% in Borg Al-Arab and 3.75% in Wasat [19] as seen in (Table 3).

Method

Assessing of urban resilience of Alexandria Governorate to SLR impacts was performed in four steps:

a) Identify and calculate the required variables for determining urban resilience in Alexandria Governorate according to (Table 4).

b) The ASTER GDEM imagery was used to generate contour lines, which were used as the elevation data. The elevation data was prepared in WGS 1984 (UTM Zone 35) coordinate system.

c) The vulnerability of urban districts of Alexandria Governorate is assessed by the identification of the spatial extent of SLR impacts inundations using the proposed scenarios of SLR and land subsidence of the Alexandria.

d) The inundation maps are overlaid on the population map of the Alexandria Governorate to estimate the vulnerable population.

e) All variable (vulnerable built-up areas, vulnerable population, unemployment rate, annual population growth and human development index (HDI) are normalized using Equation 1 to obtain values ranging from 0 to 1.FAO [20].

Where:

Nx = Normalized variable

X = absolute value of the variable being normalized

Xmin = Minimum variable value

Xmax = Maximum variable value

f) Calculate the resilience index to quantify urban resilience of the Alexandria Governorate and integrate the different variables that determine resilience to SLR impacts. Six variables are integrated into the proposed composite index, including proportions of built-up area vulnerable to SLR, vulnerable population and socioeconomic conditions (represented in the unemployment rate, annual population growth and human development index (HDI) which reflecting health, education, income levels in the community).

g) All previous variables are integrated into the resilience composite index using an equal weighting scheme using Equation 2 Abdrabo and Hassaan [21].

Where:

R = Resilience index

Nx = Normalized variable value

h) Resilience index is ranged between 0 and 1 reflecting lowest and the highest level of resilience, respectively.

Results and Discussion

The results are composed of three sections; the first section presents the results of the physical vulnerability to SLR inundation. In the second section, the calculation of the human development index is discussed. The final section introduced the resilience index.

Vulnerability

Vulnerability relates to a number of factors, as the study aims to assess the resilience of urban community to SLR, it is necessary to include both of vulnerable built-up area and vulnerable population using four proposed scenarios.

Vulnerable Built-up Area

For identifying areas susceptible to SLR, four scenarios are proposed 0.5, 1,1.5 and 2 m. ASTER DEM (30 m) was used to carry out the analyses by extracting the areas that could be vulnerable to inundation based on the different scenarios. DEM was created using Inverse distance weighted interpolation technique of the ASTER data as seen in Figure 4 shows the elevation of the area ranges between 0 and 67 m above sea level. Vulnerable built-up areas to SLR inundation are presented in (Table 5). Figure 5 shows the spatial extent of inundation under different inundation scenarios. The total area of these seven urban districts is 1459.6 km2. The total built-up areas susceptible to inundation by SLR in these districts ranged between 257.7 and 336.3 km2, representing 17.6% and 23% of their total built-up areas. The spatial extent of SLR impacts differs widely among these urban districts. For instance, the proportions of inundated built-up areas in urban districts are found to be highest in the case of Amereya district ranging between 11.2% and 14.1% of its total built-up area under the 0.5m and the 2m scenarios, respectively. The lowest built-up area susceptible to inundation was found to be in Gomrok district, ranging between 0.09% and 0.1% of its total built-up area under the 0.5m and 1m scenarios, respectively Figure 6.

Vulnerable Population

In order to estimate the population vulnerable to inundation by SLR, it was assumed that populations are evenly distributed over the built-up area of these urban areas. Table 5 shows that the total vulnerable population in the seven urban districts ranged between 44.5% and 56.4%of total population under 0.5 m and 2 m respectively. It was found that Montazah district has the largest vulnerable population size of all districts studied (Table 6). Borg Al-Arab had, meanwhile, the smallest vulnerable population size under all SLR proposed scenarios.

Socio-economic Conditions

Socio comes from social, and refers to any number of demographic and social conditions, such as the age structure. Economic refers to the economic conditions, such as income, unemployment rates. Socio-economic is used as an umbrella term to cover a wide variety of interrelated social and economic factors. Socio-economic conditions in this study include unemployment rate, population growth rate and HDI.

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate is the share of the labor force that is jobless, expressed as a percentage. When the economy is in poor shape and jobs are scarce, the unemployment rate can be expected to rise. When the economy is growing at a healthy rate and jobs are relatively plentiful, it can be expected to fall. The unemployment rate is seen in Table 4. The highest rate is found in Wasat district (3.7%) while the lowest rate in Borg Al-Arab district (0.8%). Both of Montazah and Gomrok districts have the same unemployment rate.

Population Growth Rate

Egypt is the most populous Arab country, with an estimated population of 87 million [19]. The population is currently growing at 1.6% per year (2013), producing obstructing economic growth. Euro monitor International’s report, Global Economies, and Consumers [22] put Alexandria in its list of the fastest-growing cities in terms of population. Population grows to the extent that the number or rate of births exceeds the number or rate of deaths. The difference between these numbers (or rates) is termed “natural increase” (or “natural decrease” if deaths exceed births). Table 7 shows the number of births, deaths and natural increase in Alexandria Governorate.

Human Development Index (HDI)

The Human Development Index (HDI) was developed by the United Nations as a metric to assess the social and economic development levels of countries. Four principal areas of examination are used to rank countries: mean years of schooling, expected years of schooling, life expectancy at birth and gross national income per capita.

Life Expectancy Index (LEI)

Life expectancy at birth is the number of years a newborn infant could expect to live if prevailing patterns of age-specific mortality rates at the time of birth stay the same throughout the infant’s life. According to UNDP [23], Life expectancy index can be calculated from the next equation:

The minimum value of life expectancy is 20 years; the Maximum value of life expectancy is 83.5 years (Japan, 2015). A LEU is 1 when Life expectancy at birth is 83.5 and 0 when Life expectancy at birth is 20.

Life expectancy index in Alexandria Governorate in 2012 is 0.66; (Table 8) presents the life expectancy for different districts in Alexandria.

Education Index (EI)

Education Index (EI) consists of two indices which are: Mean year of school (MSY) and the Expected school year (ESY) UNDP [23]. MSY is the number of years’ person spent in school. The lower value was fixed and the maximum value for mean years of school is fixed at 15 according to UNDP [23]. An average number of completed years of education of a population is 25 years and older. ESY is a measure of the number of years of schooling a child at the start of education trajectory is expected to receive if current rates of acceptance are maintained throughout the child life [24]. (Number of years a child of school entrance age can expect to spend at a given level of education). The ESY is calculated to be 18 years according to UNDP [23].

Education index in Alexandria C in 2012 is 0.71; (Table 9) presents the education index for different districts in Alexandria.

Income Index (II): According to UNDP [23], the HDI index calculation for income is:

The minimum value for gross national income (GNI) per capita is $100 UNDP [23], the maximum value for gross national income (GNI) per capita is 123124 [24]. So, Equation 10 is modified to be:

Income index in Alexandria Governorate in 2012 is 0.7. (Table 10) presents the income index for different districts in Alexandria.

Finally, Human Development Index (HDI) can be calculated using [23] formula:

Where

LEL = Life Expectancy Index;

EI = Education Index;

II = Income Index

From Equation 13, HDI for Alexandria urban districts can be calculated as presented in (Table 11).

Thus HDI for Alexandria Governorate is the average of the HDI in all districts (0.7).

The estimated resilience index, derived for urban areas susceptible to inundation by SLR in the study area, is shown in Table 12. Ranking the seven urban districts according to resilience index reveals that Borg Al-Arab district had the lowest resilience level with a resilience index value in the four SLR scenarios. Sharq district had the highest resilience value under the 0.5 m and 1 m SLR scenarios. Whereas, Montazah had the highest resilience value under both of 1.5 m and 2 m SLR scenarios respectively. The resilience index ranges from 0 (low resilience) to 1 (high resilience).The lowest level of resilience in the case of Borg Al-Arab district can be attributed to the low proportion of the population and built-up areas vulnerable to inundation by SLR and a relatively low coverage of infrastructure and services. The high resilience in Sharq district can be explained by the relatively high HDI, high levels of access to basic services and infrastructure, and improved environmental and demographic conditions.

The lack of resilience in urban to SLR may have far reaching implications to Egypt as a whole. Variation in resilience value in urban districts can be attributed to a different area, population density, assets, socioeconomic conditions, capabilities and consequently different levels of resilience of urban districts to SLR impacts. Also, functionalities influence resilience value as urban districts of Alexandria is multi-functional, as they serve as tourist resorts host in addition to a number of economic activities such as industrial and commercial activities.

Conclusion

Alexandria Governorate is considered one of the most vulnerable areas to SLR. The resilience index of the seven urban districts to SLR risk is assessed. The resilience index was developed to integrate various physical and socioeconomic variables that determine urban resilience. The index is calculated depending on the use of six variables (number of vulnerable population, inundated area, the unemployment rate, population density, the annual population increase the human development index and HDI). HDI (reflecting health, education, income levels in the community) of Alexandria and its districts was calculated. HDI is an indicator adopted by the United Nations Development Program since 1990 to determine the status of human development in a particular country. HDI is based on three indices: life expectancy at birth index, education index, and income index. The human development index of Alexandria is 0.70.

The application of the resilience index showed that urban districts revealed different levels of resilience to SLR impacts. It was found that the level of resilience was varied in the seven urban districts of Alexandria Governorate. Such varied resilience levels can be attributed to different magnitudes of physical vulnerability to inundation by SLR, which varied considerably among urban districts. The results indicated the highest resilience districts are Sharq, Montazah, Amereya, Wasat Gomrok, Gharb and finally Borg Al-Arab district which has the minimum resilience. High resilience value does not mean that a specific event will not affect the facility and will not cause severe consequences. Conversely, a low resilience value does not mean that a disruptive event will automatically lead to a failure of the critical infrastructure and to serious consequences. The resilience instead compares the level of resilience at critical infrastructures and guides prioritization of limited resources for improving resilience. The resilience also provides valuable information effective way for preventing problems and improving welfare. The results proved that the resilience does not necessarily mean that a community is invulnerable- a community can be resilient and vulnerable at the same time.

Socio economic aspects influence resilience as lack basic infrastructure and services, which is typically accompanied by overcrowded living conditions and poor housing quality. In addition, environmental aspects adversely affect resilience such as the deteriorating quality of the urban environment, due to pollution, urban water and air quality and overexploitation of natural resources. The current coastal zone management strategies and the institutional settings involve limited contribution to urban resilience beside the overlap and conflict between these institutions. The governmental authorities are characterized by centralization in addition to the lack of vertical and horizontal integration that reveals gaps and conflicting positions between governing bodies.

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shirlleycoyle · 4 years ago

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The Hard Science of Reincarnation

The nightmares began when Ryan Hammons was 4 years old. He would wake up clutching his chest, telling his mother Cyndi that he couldn’t breathe and that his heart had exploded in Hollywood. But they didn’t live in Los Angeles; Hammons’s family resided in Oklahoma.

A few months prior, in early 2009, Ryan had started talking about going home to Hollywood and pleaded with Cyndi to take him to see his other family. He would yell, “Action!” and pretend to direct films when he played with friends; he knew scenes from a cowboy movie he had never watched; and said a cafe reminded him of Paris, where he had never been. He talked about his child, worldly travels, and his job at an agency where people changed their names. Cyndi didn’t think much of it until the nightmares set in and Ryan started describing death.

Hoping to figure out what he was talking about, Cyndi went to the public library and checked out a few books about Hollywood. She was flipping through one of them when Ryan got excited at a photo from the 1932 movie Night After Night. “Hey Mama, that’s George. We did a picture together,” he told her. “And Mama, that guy’s me. I found me.” George, Cyndi discovered, was George Raft, an actor and dancer who specialized in gangster films in the 1930s and 1940s. She couldn’t track down the name of the man Ryan had identified as himself.

Cyndi had never encountered anything like this before. She was a county clerk deputy who’d been raised in the Baptist church. Her husband, Kevin, was a Muskagee police officer and the son of a Church of Christ minister. She considered them to be fairly ordinary people, but she was starting to wonder if Ryan wasn’t so ordinary. Cyndi contemplated the possibility that this could be a case of reincarnation.

Cyndi contemplated the possibility that this could be a case of reincarnation.

Though she could have looked to one of the religions that hold a belief in reincarnation, such as Hinduism or Buddhism, instead, Cyndi turned to science. In February 2010, she wrote a letter to the Division of Perceptual Studies in the psychiatry and neurobehavioral department at the University of Virginia School of Medicine. Within weeks, they wrote back; Ryan was far from alone in having memories of a past life.

The roots of the Division of Perceptual Studies stretch back to the 1920s, when Dr. Ian Stevenson was growing up in Canada. A sickly child, he contracted bronchitis numerous times and spent hours in bed, devouring his mother’s extensive collection of books on Eastern religions. It was in those pages that he was first exposed to reports of paranormal phenomena. He claimed to possess an unusually good memory and earned his medical degree at McGill University in 1943, before moving to Arizona. He briefly studied biochemistry before moving to psychosomatic medicine, in search of “something closer to the whole human being” than what he had found in biochemistry. From there, he trained in psychiatry and psychoanalysis.

His academic career flourished in the U.S. and he was named chairman of the department of psychiatry at the University of Virginia (UVA) in 1957, while still in his 30s. Around that time, he revived his childhood interest in the paranormal. He dipped his toes into the waters of parapsychology—the study of mental abilities that seem to go against or be outside of the known laws of nature and science—by writing book reviews and articles for non-academic publications like Harper’s magazine.

The most convincing cases, he realized, all involved young children, generally between the ages of 2 and 5, who spoke in great detail of places they had never visited and people they had never met.

In 1958, he won the American Society for Psychical Research’s contest for the best essay on paranormal mental phenomena and their relationship to life after death. His essay, “The Evidence for Survival from Claimed Memories of Incarnations,” looked at 44 cases of individuals around the world who had memories of past lives. The most convincing cases, he realized, all involved young children, generally between the ages of 2 and 5, who spoke in great detail of places they had never visited and people they had never met, or who had birthmarks corresponding to injuries incurred by other people when they faced violent, untimely deaths. Most of those cases were in Asian countries where belief in reincarnation was already high.

Chester Carlson, a wealthy physicist who invented the photocopying process that led to the Xerox Corporation’s founding, read Stevenson’s winning essay. Having become interested in parapsychology through his wife Dorris, Carlson contacted Stevenson with an offer of funding; Stevenson declined. But Stevenson fell deeper into his new research, taking his first fieldwork trip to interview children with past-life memories in India and Sri Lanka in 1961 and publishing his first book on the topic, Twenty Cases Suggestive of Reincarnation, in 1966. He reconsidered Carlson’s offer; the following year, the funding allowed him to step down as chair of the psychiatry department to focus full-time on his reincarnation research—a move that pleased the dean of UVA’s medical school, who was not thrilled with the direction that Stevenson’s work was taking. But when Stevenson stepped down, the dean agreed to let him form a small research division in which to do his curious new research within UVA that still exists today.

Carlson died unexpectedly the next year and left UVA $1 million to support Stevenson’s research. Over the following decades, Stevenson traversed the globe tracking down instances of children with past-life memories, logging an average of 55,000 miles a year and identifying over 2,000 cases. Along the way, he authored more than 300 publications, including fourteen books.

The new research division at UVA was called the Division of Parapsychology—a name forced onto Stevenson, according to Dr. Jim. B. Tucker, the division’s current director. Stevenson changed the name to the Division of Personality Studies, concerned that parapsychology was isolating itself from the rest of academia. The vagueness of “personality studies” suited Stevenson, as he continued working to gain the respect of mainstream science. That mission permeated his studies: He ceaselessly quantified his data—coding 200 variables in his database of cases, calculating the probabilities of one or two birthmarks corresponding to one or two wounds on another person’s body, and painstakingly examining every possible normal, as opposed to paranormal, explanation—in a bid to be taken seriously. Now, the research unit is called the Division of Perceptual Studies, or DOPS, and remains up and running despite Stevenson’s death in 2007. There, Cyndi Hammons’s letter about Ryan’s Hollywood memories found Tucker.

Tucker traveled to Oklahoma to meet the Hammons family in April 2010. With help from a TV crew that was following Ryan’s case, they identified the man in the photo from Night After Night as Marty Martyn, who died in 1964. Tucker showed Ryan photos of people Martyn had known in sets of four, asking if anyone looked familiar. He later realized this wording was too vague, especially for a 6 year old, but Ryan did pick out Martyn’s wife, saying that she looked familiar, but that he wasn’t sure how he knew her. Together, they flew to Los Angeles and met Martyn’s daughter, who’d been 8 years old when her father had died. Ryan was confused to find she had grown.

Tucker fact-checked some of Ryan’s memories with Martyn’s daughter. A lot of the details proved accurate; a lot of them did not. Some couldn’t be verified. Martyn had acted as an extra in movies before becoming a talent agent. He and his wife had traveled the globe. Ryan had talked about dancing on Broadway, which Tucker thought unlikely for someone who’d been an extra with no lines, but Martyn’s daughter verified those memories. He had mentioned two sisters and a mother with curly brown hair—also true. He recalled his address having Rock or Mount in its name, and Martyn’s last address was 825 N. Roxbury.

Ryan Hammons recognized the actor George Raft in old Hollywood photographs when he was a child. (John Springer Collection/CORBIS/Corbis via Getty Images)

But his heart had not exploded. Martyn had leukemia and died of a cerebral hemorrhage in 1964. Ryan had also said that his father had raised corn and died when he was still a child, which didn’t prove accurate. Still, the case presented “strong evidence for reincarnation,” Tucker wrote in his 2013 book, Return to Life, in which he documented this story, but it was certainly not definitive.

“What this offered was an opportunity to look at the big picture, this question of there being more of us than just the physical.”

When Tucker first heard about Stevenson’s research on reincarnation, he was a child psychiatrist in private practice in Charlottesville, Virginia, where UVA is located. He didn’t believe in reincarnation, but his wife was open to ideas about reincarnation and psychics, so he gradually opened up to those concepts too. And his wife wasn’t alone: A 2018 Pew Research Center poll found that 33 percent of adults in the United States believe in reincarnation. After reading one of Stevenson’s books, he heard that DOPS was doing a project on near-death experiences—another field of research within parapsychology—and reached out. He began working there part-time in 1999.

“What this offered was an opportunity to look at the big picture, this question of there being more of us than just the physical. That was really quite appealing—and not just the question but also the approach to the question, that these were rational, serious-minded people that were doing this work,” he told VICE News.

Ten years prior to meeting the Hammons family, Tucker gave up his private practice to join DOPS full-time. For nine years, he also served as medical director of UVA’s Child and Family Psychiatry Clinic alongside pursuing his parapsychological research through DOPS. Most of Stevenson’s work focused on reincarnation in Asia, but as Tucker plunged into researching past-life memories, he realized that if he were to get Americans to consider his work seriously, he needed to search for cases among those in the U.S. that didn’t believe in reincarnation.

Tucker has now published two books documenting cases of children with past-life memories—a term he prefers over the flashier “reincarnation.” He writes in a decidedly more approachable voice than Stevenson did, aiming for a mainstream audience instead of an academic one. “Ian's primary goal was to get the scientific world, the scientific establishment, to seriously consider this possibility [of reincarnation]. And that's a pretty tough audience,” he said. “But beyond that, if you just write for that audience for decades, at some point you have to decide that the rest of the world needs to hear about it too.”

Even in Europe, where parapsychological research is more common in universities like the University of Edinburgh and the University of Northampton, the broader psychology community remains skeptical of this work.

In spite of Stevenson’s attempts to turn reincarnation studies into a hard science, parapsychology is still a stigmatized niche within academia, where it is not viewed as a very respectable field. It’s one of the reasons that Tucker, as well as many other parapsychologists, keeps one foot in mainstream psychiatry or psychology while pursuing their parapsychological research. Even in Europe, where parapsychological research is more common in universities like the University of Edinburgh and the University of Northampton, the broader psychology community remains skeptical of this work.

Tucker and his colleagues at DOPS are not the only academics in this field in the U.S, either. “I think there's an assumption oftentimes that if you're studying parapsychology, that means that you absolutely believe everything you're studying, and I try and work hard to say that you don't have to believe in everything you study. It's an academic interest and these are experiences that human beings have reported across different times and across cultures, and we really need to try and understand all aspects of human experience,” said Christine Simmonds-Moore, a parapsychologist and associate professor of psychology at the University of West Georgia.

Simmonds-Moore gravitated towards the paranormal as a child in the UK, but it wasn’t until she was far into her psychology degree that she realized she could actually study paranormal phenomena seriously. After getting her PhD in England, she moved to the US to research at the Rhine Center, an independent parapsychology research center in North Carolina that was once affiliated with Duke University. It was while working there that she first encountered the researchers at UVA.

She never met Stevenson, but she distinctly remembers her first visit to DOPS. “It does send shivers down your spine when you go into the room and you see all the filing cabinets containing all of the cases of the past lives that were investigated by Stevenson,” she told me. “You see all of his work and you see all of the things that he collected from his travels whilst he was doing the investigations. So there are lots of artifacts on the walls there. It's quite a beautiful experience just to see the room with these filing cabinets.”

Not everyone is so moved by Stevenson and Tucker’s work. Christopher French, a professor of psychology at Goldsmiths, University of London, considers himself a skeptic when it comes to paranormal phenomena, despite conducting some of his own research on past-life memories. He began his career studying mainstream neuroscience before embracing anomalistic psychology, the study of human behavior associated with the paranormal but based on the assumption that nothing paranormal is involved. French’s new direction was, he described, “tolerated” by his department, and he had to keep up his more mainstream psychological research in parallel with the anomalistic work that interested him far more.

“I think they are false memories that have arisen as a result of a kind of interesting social psychological interaction between the child and those around them.”

He thinks the most plausible explanation for the majority of cases is that the children are experiencing false memories, though he maintains respect for Stevenson’s meticulous research. “I think they are false memories that have arisen as a result of a kind of interesting social psychological interaction between the child and those around them,” he argued. “You do wonder to what end the researchers are kind of just finding the things that match what's gone on.” He thinks that young children will often say things that don’t make sense to their parents when they first start to speak and the parents will then inadvertently feed them information as they begin to wonder whose life the child could be describing—perhaps showing them photographs and asking if they remember the people in the picture and “having this interaction that ultimately will produce a situation where they've unintentionally implanted false memories,” as French put it.

Stevenson’s work informed French’s own forays into investigating children with past-life memories. Many years ago, the two men met when seated next to each other at a conference dinner. “He came across as a very intelligent, reasonable person,” French recalled. “I think his work is very good as far as it goes, but I don't think it's the whole story.”

He doesn't, however, question the necessity of the research itself. “There could only be two possibilities. One is that there is something genuinely paranormal happening, and if that is true, that would be amazing,” he told me. “Or, alternatively—which is more the line that I do favor—it tells us something very interesting about human psychology. So either way, it's worth taking seriously.”

Dr. Anita H. Clayton, chair of UVA’s psychiatry and neurobehavioral department, which houses DOPS, echoed that sentiment: “My question is, Where should DOPS be if it's not in the department of psychiatry? And where should it be if it's not in academics? Because I think what scientists do is dispassionately investigate phenomena that we don't yet understand.”

And yet, mainstream science still largely relegates parapsychology to its own community, with researchers struggling to get their work published in major journals. Instead, they often publish in parapsychology journals, which, all the parapsychologists I spoke with agreed, is a bit ineffective—they are preaching to the choir when they would rather be reaching the skeptics.

On April 30, 2011, the TV show that had followed Ryan Hammon’s case, The UneXplained: A Life in the Movies, aired on the Biography Channel. As a young child, Ryan had always been shy about sharing his Hollywood memories out of fear that people would think he was crazy; his parents, too, had been nervous about what people in their small town would think of them. But just over a year after Cyndi sent that first letter to DOPS, her family’s story appeared on national television. In the end, the family thought the producers did a great job. Soon after the episode aired, Ryan stopped talking about Marty Martyn. Within six months, Ryan had taken down his Martyn-themed bedroom decorations—an iron Eiffel Tower, pictures of New York—and told his mom it was time to be a regular kid.

After more than two decades of researching children with past-life memories, Tucker is still getting letters about children like Ryan and he is still seeking out new cases. At his last count, there were about 2,200 cases coded in his database. He describes himself as “spiritual but not religious,” and his goal remains unique from Stevenson’s, who was open about his unfulfilled quest for mainstream science to value his life’s work.

“A lot of it, to be perfectly honest, is trying to figure out the answers for myself,” Tucker told me. “Hopefully my work or my writings have had a positive impact on some people, but they're still trying to answer the question of, What is the level of evidence that, in fact, there is this part of us that survives after the body dies?”

The Hard Science of Reincarnation syndicated from https://triviaqaweb.wordpress.com/feed/

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realyoungdarius · 4 years ago

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Drafting, Laying Out, and Specifying Technical Devices, Parts, and EquipmentProviding documentation, detailed instructions, drawings, or specifications to tell others about how devices, parts, equipment, or structures are to be fabricated, constructed, assembled, modified, maintained, or used.

Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical EquipmentServicing, repairing, adjusting, and testing machines, devices, moving parts, and equipment that operate primarily on the basis of mechanical (not electronic) principles.

Repairing and Maintaining Electronic EquipmentServicing, repairing, calibrating, regulating, fine-tuning, or testing machines, devices, and equipment that operate primarily on the basis of electrical or electronic (not mechanical) principles.

Documenting/Recording InformationEntering, transcribing, recording, storing, or maintaining information in written or electronic/magnetic form.

Folder (open)Communicating and InteractingWhat interactions with other people occur while performing this job?

Folder (open)Coordinating, Developing, Managing, and AdvisingWhat coordinating, managerial, or advisory activities are done while performing this job?

Folder (open)AdministeringWhat administrative, staffing, monitoring, or controlling activities are done while performing this job?

Interpreting the Meaning of Information for OthersTranslating or explaining what information means and how it can be used.

Communicating with Supervisors, Peers, or SubordinatesProviding information to supervisors, co-workers, and subordinates by telephone, in written form, e-mail, or in person.

Communicating with Persons Outside OrganizationCommunicating with people outside the organization, representing the organization to customers, the public, government, and other external sources. This information can be exchanged in person, in writing, or by telephone or e-mail.

Establishing and Maintaining Interpersonal RelationshipsDeveloping constructive and cooperative working relationships with others, and maintaining them over time.

Assisting and Caring for OthersProviding personal assistance, medical attention, emotional support, or other personal care to others such as coworkers, customers, or patients.

Selling or Influencing OthersConvincing others to buy merchandise/goods or to otherwise change their minds or actions.

Resolving Conflicts and Negotiating with OthersHandling complaints, settling disputes, and resolving grievances and conflicts, or otherwise negotiating with others.

Performing for or Working Directly with the PublicPerforming for people or dealing directly with the public. This includes serving customers in restaurants and stores, and receiving clients or guests.

Coordinating the Work and Activities of OthersGetting members of a group to work together to accomplish tasks.

Developing and Building TeamsEncouraging and building mutual trust, respect, and cooperation among team members.

Training and Teaching OthersIdentifying the educational needs of others, developing formal educational or training programs or classes, and teaching or instructing others.

Guiding, Directing, and Motivating SubordinatesProviding guidance and direction to subordinates, including setting performance standards and monitoring performance.

Coaching and Developing OthersIdentifying the developmental needs of others and coaching, mentoring, or otherwise helping others to improve their knowledge or skills.

Provide Consultation and Advice to OthersProviding guidance and expert advice to management or other groups on technical, systems-, or process-related topics.

Performing Administrative ActivitiesPerforming day-to-day administrative tasks such as maintaining information files and processing paperwork.

Staffing Organizational UnitsRecruiting, interviewing, selecting, hiring, and promoting employees in an organization.

Monitoring and Controlling ResourcesMonitoring and controlling resources and overseeing the spending of money.

Intermediate Work Activities ListList of intermediate work activities for each occupation

Detailed Work Activities ListList of detailed work activities for each occupation

Folder (open)Structural CharacteristicsA functional subsystem of organization structure subsuming constructs of (a) organizational structure, and (b) human resources systems and practices

Folder (open)Social ProcessesA functional subsystem of organization structure subsuming processes linking people (employees) to their work and to each other and includes elements such as values, goals, leadership, and roles

Folder (open)Organizational StructureThe architecture or anatomy of an organization, affecting the behavior of organizational members as well as the ability of organizations to adapt effectively to their environments. Elements of organizational structure include the hierarchy of the organization, the degree of centralization, and the nature of work groups used to accomplish organizational objectives

Folder (open)Human Resources Systems and PracticesOrganizational practices and policies designed to ensure that an organization has employees who are capable of meeting its goals

Folder (open)Decision Making SystemThe amount of autonomy and involvement in decision making that employees have

Folder (open)Job CharacteristicsIndicates the level of skill variety, task significance, task identity, autonomy, and feedback in this job

Folder (open)Job Stability and RotationThe amount of stability in the job and the extent of job rotation

Folder (open)Decentralization and Employee EmpowermentIndicates the degree to which employees are provided with different types of information and participate in decision-making

Individual versus Team StructureIdentifies the extent to which employees work in intact teams

Have Control Over Unit or DepartmentYou have a great deal of control over what happens in your unit or departmentData not collected

Have Influence Over DecisionsYou have a great deal of influence over decisions that are made in your unit or department.Data not collected

Monitor Data on Quality/Costs/Waste/etc.You monitor data on quality, costs, waste, and productivityData not collected

Determine Work Flow or Order of TasksYou determine work flow or the order in which tasks are performedData not collected

Invest in New Equipment and TechnologyYou invest in new equipment and technologyData not collected

Develop New Products, Services, and ProceduresYou develop new products, services, and proceduresData not collected

Percent of Time in Intact TeamApproximately what percentage of your time do you spend working in an intact team? By intact team we mean a group of 3 or more employees who are jointly responsible for whole work processes and work toward shared goals (e.g., production team; development team; project team).Data not collected

Folder (open)Skill VarietyThe variety of skills required of people in this job

Folder (open)Task SignificanceThe importance or significance of the tasks performed on this job, as reflected by its effect on the lives or well-being of others

Folder (open)Task IdentityThe extent to which tasks performed on this job can be perceived as contributing to the final product

Folder (open)AutonomyThe amount of freedom in the job, as reflected in a person being able to exercise personal initiative and judgment in task performance

Folder (open)FeedbackThe extent to which this job provides information about how well one is performing

Job VarietyHow much variety is there in your job? That is, to what extent does the job require you to do many different things at work, using a variety of your skills and talents?Data not collected

Complex or High Level Skills RequiredYour job requires you to use a number of complex or high-level skills.Data not collected

Variety of Tasks RequiredYour job requires you to perform a variety of tasks.Data not collected

Significance or Importance of JobIn general, how significant or important is your job? That is, are the results of your work likely to significantly affect the lives or well-being of other people?Data not collected

Job Quality Affects Lots of PeopleYour job is one where a lot of people can be affected by how well the work gets done.Data not collected

Job Itself Is Very SignificantYour job itself is very significant and important in the broader scheme of things.Data not collected

Job Involves Whole Piece of WorkTo what extent does your job involve doing a 'whole' and identifiable piece of work? That is, is the job a complete piece of work that has an obvious beginning and end? Or is it only a small part of the overall piece of work, which is finished by other people or automatic machines? (If your job involves many different tasks or pieces of work, try to think about your typical tasks or the tasks you spend the most time on.)Data not collected

Can Do Entire Piece of WorkYour job is arranged so that you can do an entire piece of work from beginning to end.Data not collected

Can Finish What You StartYour job provides you a chance to completely finish the piece of work you began.Data not collected

Autonomy and Freedom in JobHow much autonomy and freedom are there in your job? That is, to what extent does your job permit you to decide on your own how to go about doing your job?Data not collected

Chance for Initiative and JudgmentYour job gives you a chance to use your personal initiative and judgment in carrying out the work.Data not collected

Opportunity for Independence and FreedomYour job gives you considerable opportunity for independence and freedom in how you do your job.Data not collected

Extent of Feedback From Doing Job ItselfTo what extent does doing the job itself provide you with information about your work performance? That is, does the actual work itself provide clues about how well you are doing--aside from any 'feedback' co-workers or supervisors may provide?Data not collected

Doing Job Provides Chances for FeedbackJust doing the job provides many chances for you to figure out how well you are doing.Data not collected

After Finishing Job, Know Own PerformanceAfter you finish a job, you know whether you performed well.Data not collected

Number of Supervisors in Past YearHow many different supervisors have you had in the past year?Data not collected

Number of Work Teams in Past YearApproximately how many different work teams have you belonged to during the past year?Data not collected

Number of Work Group Reorganizations in Past YearIn the past year, how many times has your primary work group gone through some kind of reorganization?Data not collected

Number of Times Nature of Job ChangedIn the past year, how many times has the nature of your job duties changed dramatically?Data not collected

Job Rotation PracticesWhich statement best describes the job rotation practices in your job and your work group?Data not collected

Folder (open)Recruitment and SelectionOrganizational practices, decisions, and processes that affect (a) the capability of an organization to make hiring, promotion, and other personnel decisions, and (b) the number or types of individuals who are willing to apply for or accept a given vacancy

Folder (open)Training and DevelopmentThe systematic acquisition of attitudes, concepts, knowledge, roles, or skills that result in improved performance at work

Folder (open)Reward SystemMonetary compensation and monetary and non-monetary benefits organizations provide to their employees

Recruitment OperationsActivities involved in implementing recruitment plans (e.g., selecting sources, realistic job preview)

Selection Assessment Methods UsedThe methods used for selection or promotion of employees

Sources of People for Current JobWhich of the sources listed below are used to recruit people for your current job?Data not collected

Assessment Methods Used to Select for JobWhich of the following assessment methods are used to select people for your current job?Data not collected

Training MethodsThe methods used in training programs

Training Topics and ContentWhat trainers intend to teach trainees through training programs

Extent and Support of Training ActivitiesThe extent to which an organization makes training available to its employees and provides financial support for training activities

Training Methods Used in CompanyWhich of the following training methods have been used in company training courses you have attended in the last two years?Data not collected

Areas of Recent Formal TrainingIn which of the following content areas have you received formal training in the last two years?Data not collected

Recent Technical Skill TrainingIn the last two years, how often have you attended company sponsored job-related technical training (i.e., technical skill training)?Data not collected

Basis of CompensationThe extent to which organizations reward individuals based on: (a) their knowledge, skills, and performance, (b) seniority, (c) team performance, (d) organizational performance, and (e) job attributes

BenefitsThe extent to which employees' compensation includes benefits such as pensions, insurance, paid leave, awards and bonuses, pay for time not worked, etc.

Compensation Package ComponentsWhich of the following is part of your compensation package (i.e., pay)?Data not collected

Benefit ComponentsWhich of the following is part of your benefits?Data not collected

Folder (open)GoalsIndividual goal setting.

Folder (open)RolesCharacteristics of job incumbents' roles, such as the extent to which they involve conflict and overload

CulturePatterns of behaviors and social relationships reflecting the assumptions, values, norms, and artifacts shared by members of the organization

Folder (open)Supervisor RoleThe nature of supervisory leadership

Folder (open)Individual Goal CharacteristicsThe extent to which an individual's goal is made explicit, and the probability that an individual can attain the goal

Folder (open)Goal FeedbackThe extent to which an individual is given periodic feedback regarding his or her progress against a goal

Achieve Most Important Individual GoalRealistically, the probability that you will achieve your most important individual work goal this year is:Data not collected

How Many Quantitative Individual GoalsHow many of your individual work goals are quantitative (e.g., selling $100,000 worth of merchandise as opposed to selling as much merchandise as possible).Data not collected

How Many Specific Individual GoalsHow many of your individual work goals are specific -- that is, you will know exactly when you have achieved them?Data not collected

When Get Information on Individual GoalsHow often do you get information regarding how close you are to achieving your most important individual work goal (for example, an interim financial report or data on number of units sold)?Data not collected

Informal, Job-Relevant FeedbackTo what extent do you receive informal, job-relevant feedback from your supervisor?Data not collected

Meet One-on-One With Supervisor on Goals, Training, and DevelopmentDuring the past year, how often have you met one-on-one with your immediate supervisor to discuss issues such as your performance, goals, training and development?Data not collected

Folder (open)Role ConflictThe extent to which an individual has to deal with conflicting demands

Folder (open)Role NegotiabilityThe extent to which an individual can negotiate his/her role in an organization

Folder (open)Role OverloadA discrepancy between the job's demands and one's ability to meet those demands

Often Receive Conflicting RequestsYou often receive conflicting requests from two or more people at work.Data not collected

Work With Groups With Different FocusesYou work with two or more groups who want you to focus on different things.Data not collected

You and Your Supervisor Agree About JobYou and your supervisor agree about what your job should be.Data not collected

Supervisor Makes Conflicting RequestsYour supervisor often asks you to do two or more things that conflict (for example, save a large amount of money while at the same time dramatically increasing quality).Data not collected

Negotiate Changes in Role with SupervisorYou have negotiated changes in the nature of your role at work with your supervisor.Data not collected

Significant Input Into Way You Do JobYou have significant input into the way you do your job.Data not collected

Get Assignments without Adequate ResourcesYou receive assignments at work without adequate resources and materials to complete them properly.Data not collected

Given Enough Time to Do WorkYou are given enough time to do what is expected of you at work.Data not collected

Too Much for One Person to DoIt often seems like you have too much work for one person to do.Data not collected

Organizational ValuesIndicates the importance of different organizational values such as tradition, stability, innovation, and collaboration

Folder (open)Guiding Principles of OrganizationHow important are each of the following concepts, or values, as a guiding principle for your organization as a whole.

Taking Chances; Going Out on a LimbTaking chances; going out on a limbData not collected

Fairness; JusticeFairness; justiceData not collected

PrecisionPrecision; paying attention to even the smallest detailsData not collected

StabilityStability; keeping things on an even keelData not collected

Getting Things DoneGetting things done; taking decisive or quick actionData not collected

Caring About EmployeesCaring about employees; showing concern for their well-beingData not collected

InnovationInnovation; finding new and better ways of doing things; openness to new ideasData not collected

AggressivenessAggressiveness; forcefully going after what you wantData not collected

Valuing CustomersValuing customers; emphasizing customer serviceData not collected

Providing High Quality ProductsProviding high quality products or services; meeting high standards of excellenceData not collected

Openness and HonestyOpenness; honesty; keeping employees well informedData not collected

Flexibility, Adapting to ChangeFlexibility, adapting to changeData not collected

Supervisor Friendly and SupportiveTo what extent does your supervisor act in a friendly and supportive manner? For example, does he/she show concern for members of your work group and respect for your ideas?Data not collected

Supervisor Takes Active RoleTo what extent does your supervisor take an active role in directing your work group's activities by setting goals, planning and scheduling work, assigning tasks, and making sure that each person knows what he/she should be doing?Data not collected

Supervisor Provides Clear VisionTo what extent does your supervisor provide members of your work group with a clear vision of where the group is going and keep everyone fully committed to the work at hand?Data not collected

Supervisor Solves ProblemsTo what extent does your supervisor quickly and effectively solve problems, even difficult problems, that come up in your work group?Data not collected

Folder (open)Interpersonal RelationshipsThis category describes the context of the job in terms of human interaction processes

Folder (open)Physical Work ConditionsThis category describes the work context as it relates to the interactions between the worker and the physical job environment

Folder (open)Structural Job CharacteristicsThis category involves the relationships or interactions between the worker and the structural characteristics of the job

Folder (open)CommunicationTypes and frequency of interactions with other people that are required as part of this job.

Role RelationshipsImportance of different types of interactions with others both inside and outside the organization

Folder (open)Responsibility for OthersAmount of responsibility the worker has for other workers as a part of this job

Folder (open)Conflictual ContactAmount of conflict that the worker will encounter as part of this job

Folder (closed)Communication MethodsHow frequently does this job require the use of the following communication methods?

Contact With OthersHow much does this job require the worker to be in contact with others (face-to-face, by telephone, or otherwise) in order to perform it?

Folder (open)Job InteractionsHow important are interactions requiring the worker to:

Work With Work Group or TeamHow important is it to work with others in a group or team in this job?

Deal With External CustomersHow important is it to work with external customers or the public in this job?

Coordinate or Lead OthersHow important is it to coordinate or lead others in accomplishing work activities in this job?

Responsible for Others' Health and SafetyHow much responsibility is there for the health and safety of others in this job?

Responsibility for Outcomes and ResultsHow responsible is the worker for work outcomes and results of other workers?

Frequency of Conflict SituationsHow often are there conflict situations the employee has to face in this job?

Deal With Unpleasant or Angry PeopleHow frequently does the worker have to deal with unpleasant, angry, or discourteous individuals as part of the job requirements?

Deal With Physically Aggressive PeopleHow frequently does this job require the worker to deal with physical aggression of violent individuals?

Folder (open)Work SettingDescription of physical surroundings that the worker will face as part of this job

Environmental ConditionsDescription of extreme environmental conditions the worker will be placed in as part of this job

Folder (open)Job HazardsDescriptions of types of hazardous conditions the worker could be exposed to as part of this job. This includes the frequency of exposure, and the likelihood and degree of injury if exposed.

Body PositioningAmount of time the worker will spend in a variety of physical positions on this job

Work AttireDress requirements of this job

Folder (open)Frequency Required to Work:How frequently does this job require the worker to work:

Physical ProximityTo what extent does this job require the worker to perform job tasks in close physical proximity to other people?

Indoors, Environmentally ControlledHow often does this job require working indoors in environmentally controlled conditions?

Indoors, Not Environmentally ControlledHow often does this job require working indoors in non-controlled environmental conditions (e.g., warehouse without heat)?

Outdoors, Exposed to WeatherHow often does this job require working outdoors, exposed to all weather conditions?

Outdoors, Under CoverHow often does this job require working outdoors, under cover (e.g., structure with roof but no walls)?

In an Open Vehicle or EquipmentHow often does this job require working in an open vehicle or equipment (e.g., tractor)?

In an Enclosed Vehicle or EquipmentHow often does this job require working in a closed vehicle or equipment (e.g., car)?

Folder (open)Frequency in Environmental ConditionsHow often during a usual work period is the worker exposed to the following conditions:

Sounds, Noise Levels Are Distracting or UncomfortableHow often does this job require working exposed to sounds and noise levels that are distracting or uncomfortable?

Very Hot or Cold TemperaturesHow often does this job require working in very hot (above 90 F degrees) or very cold (below 32 F degrees) temperatures?

Extremely Bright or Inadequate LightingHow often does this job require working in extremely bright or inadequate lighting conditions?

Exposed to ContaminantsHow often does this job require working exposed to contaminants (such as pollutants, gases, dust or odors)?

Cramped Work Space, Awkward PositionsHow often does this job require working in cramped work spaces that requires getting into awkward positions?

Exposed to Whole Body VibrationHow often does this job require exposure to whole body vibration (e.g., operate a jackhammer)?

Folder (open)Frequency of Exposure to Job HazardsHow often does this job require the worker to be exposed to the following hazards?

Likelihood of Injury From Job HazardsWhat is the likelihood that the worker would be injured as a result of being exposed to the following hazards while performing this job?Data not collected

Degree of InjuryIf injury, due to exposure to the following hazards, were to occur while performing this job, how serious would be the likely outcome?Data not collected

Exposed to RadiationHow often does this job require exposure to radiation?

Exposed to Disease or InfectionsHow often does this job require exposure to disease/infections?

Exposed to High PlacesHow often does this job require exposure to high places?

Exposed to Hazardous ConditionsHow often does this job require exposure to hazardous conditions?

Exposed to Hazardous EquipmentHow often does this job require exposure to hazardous equipment?

Exposed to Minor Burns, Cuts, Bites, or StingsHow often does this job require exposure to minor burns, cuts, bites, or stings?

Folder (open)Time Spent in Body PositionsHow much time in a usual work period does the worker spend:

Spend Time SittingHow much does this job require sitting?

Spend Time StandingHow much does this job require standing?

Spend Time Climbing Ladders, Scaffolds, or PolesHow much does this job require climbing ladders, scaffolds, or poles?

Spend Time Walking and RunningHow much does this job require walking and running?

Spend Time Kneeling, Crouching, Stooping, or CrawlingHow much does this job require kneeling, crouching, stooping or crawling?

Spend Time Keeping or Regaining BalanceHow much does this job require keeping or regaining your balance?

Spend Time Using Your Hands to Handle, Control, or Feel Objects, Tools, or ControlsHow much does this job require using your hands to handle, control, or feel objects, tools or controls?

Spend Time Bending or Twisting the BodyHow much does this job require bending or twisting your body?

Spend Time Making Repetitive MotionsHow much does this job require making repetitive motions?

Folder (open)Frequency of Wearing Work AttireHow often does the worker wear:

Wear Common Protective or Safety Equipment such as Safety Shoes, Glasses, Gloves, Hearing Protection, Hard Hats, or Life JacketsHow much does this job require wearing common protective or safety equipment such as safety shoes, glasses, gloves, hard hats or life jackets?

Wear Specialized Protective or Safety Equipment such as Breathing Apparatus, Safety Harness, Full Protection Suits, or Radiation ProtectionHow much does this job require wearing specialized protective or safety equipment such as breathing apparatus, safety harness, full protection suits, or radiation protection?

Folder (open)Criticality of PositionAmount of impact the worker has on final products and their outcomes

Folder (open)Routine versus Challenging WorkThe relative amounts of routine versus challenging work the worker will perform as part of this job

CompetitionAmount of competition that the worker will face as part of this job

Folder (open)Pace and SchedulingDescription of the role that time plays in the way the worker performs the tasks required by this job

Consequence of ErrorHow serious would the result usually be if the worker made a mistake that was not readily correctable?

Folder (closed)Impact of DecisionsThe frequency and nature of the impact of worker's decisions on the organization

Freedom to Make DecisionsHow much decision making freedom, without supervision, does the job offer?

Degree of AutomationHow automated is the job?

Importance of Being Exact or AccurateHow important is being very exact or highly accurate in performing this job?

Importance of Repeating Same TasksHow important is repeating the same physical activities (e.g., key entry) or mental activities (e.g., checking entries in a ledger) over and over, without stopping, to performing this job?

Structured versus Unstructured WorkTo what extent is this job structured for the worker, rather than allowing the worker to determine tasks, priorities, and goals?

Level of CompetitionTo what extent does this job require the worker to compete or to be aware of competitive pressures?

Time PressureHow often does this job require the worker to meet strict deadlines?

Pace Determined by Speed of EquipmentHow important is it to this job that the pace is determined by the speed of equipment or machinery? (This does not refer to keeping busy at all times on this job.)

Work SchedulesHow regular are the work schedules for this job?

Duration of Typical Work WeekNumber of hours typically worked in one week.

0 notes

ecadimi-blog · 6 years ago

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The Importance of Demographic/Psychographic Information within the Marketing Strategy

Over the next few weeks the marketing executive of MJB Marketing Incorporation will be assisting Kudler Fine Foods in the process of evaluating the opportune times to implement psychographic, demographic, behavioral, and geographic segmentation into their marketing assessments. It is imperative that Kudler Fine Foods realizes the magnitude of demographic and psychographic data and the pertinent information these data’s convey about their current and possible future consumers. MJB Marketing Corporation will devise a positioning strategy for Kudler Fine Foods while contemplating the possible arrays of segmentation to assess the various competitors within the market. During all phases of the project MJB Marketing Incorporation will provide clear concise reasoning’s for the recommendations. Kudler Fine Foods must estimate the demographic characteristics such as age, occupation, gender, income, education, and other like values to properly proceed to expanding their stores. In order to create the best location and store attributes it will be necessary to pinpoint geographic, demographic, psychographic, and behavioral segmentation. These variables must be accounted for to create the ideal marketing mix. Kudler will need to determine the answers to certain questions such as how many homes are rented or owned in the area, what type of transportation will the prospective consumers be utilizing, what is the mean age of the area, what amount of disposable income is available, is the area composed of families or singles primarily, what are the ethnic backgrounds of community members, and what type of activities or leisure endeavors do community members enjoy? MJB will assist Kudler in finding demographic data on the US census bureau website. This demographic data will prove whether the chosen areas for expansion will be fruitful. Calculating demographics and psychographics allows the marketing strategist to discover what the consumer needs and or wants. Demographic, geographic, psychographic, and behavioral segmentation should be the starting point where at MJB and Kudler will assess where and who the target consumers are during the marketing plan. Kudler must maintain the interest of its current consumers in this process. Kudler would profit from marketing its products to the resident Asian community. The Asian subculture grew to 80% in the 1980’s and continues to grow especially in California. Kathy has already expressed her desire to serve this population and MJB agrees it is a good subculture to market to. The Asian community primarily consists of married dual income families with the finances to purchase Kudler’s fine products. Determining psychographic, demographic, geographic, and behavioral variables in the Asian community was conducted. MJB researched and found that people with similar cultural backgrounds tend to have some of the same thought processes. When marketers identify and segment similar groups they can study the macro- social environment which includes social class, sub-culture, and culture. These environments have substantial influence on the individuals in this consumer group beliefs, values, behaviors, emotions, and attitudes. Many times learned affective responses are varied throughout these environments, so these consumers may react differently from one another to the marketing strategy of Kudler. However, Kudler can focus on likeness and not complete similarity to group these populations. These distinctions make the macro-social environment effective for market segmentation. Subculture and social class can provide insight into communal cultural values of sizeable units of consumers. Kathy has mentioned that she is aware of the enormous possibilities of patronizing Asian consumers. There is a large concentration of Asians in the California area and marketing to them will be done by stocking their traditional food items, importing the finest Asian wines, and observing and respecting their customs. The micro environment is of high value to Kudler. The micro environment consists of the immediate region wherein social and physical aspects surround the consumer. The typical shopping arena has social aspects like the kinds of consumers attending, the family and friends that are there with the consumer, the amount of crowding, treatment of consumers by the salespeople, and the amount of the salespeople. These features of the shopping arena have the possibility to sway customer’s affective responses, behaviors, and cognitions. Kudler will want to maintain friendly and knowledgeable employees and give off an ambience that attracts the consumer that can afford Kudler’s luxury items.The target class would be upper class men and women from ages forty years to fifty years. Statistical data shows that the baby-boomer generation will account for close to half of the flexible spending over the span of the next couple of decades. This age category has a high percentage rate of college graduates at 46%. They also tend to lean towards physical health and eating well. This group is not out for bargain shopping they appreciate quality goods and have the ability to afford them. Consumers seek to find their own personal identity when contemplating buying products. With Kudler offering a wide assortment of fine wines and gourmet foods Kudler speaks to the consumer want of prestige and sophistication. Kudler will maintain a well lit clean store to shop in to provide a pleasing micro-environment. The store will still include a wine steward. The upper social class will be impressed as well as expectant of a salesperson who can not only decipher the wines but the other gourmet items as well. Kudler must manipulate the environment to facilitate, stimulate, and strengthen the aspired behaviors. The micro-social environment includes the meaningful interactions between individuals, their families, and their reference groups. Kudler will foster a family like environment where customers are urged to bring their children. The children would then be accustomed in gourmet products thus increasing the probability of them being gourmet buyers as adults. To start the positioning strategy marketing research will commence. This is already being done by the survey that Kudler currently provides, but this is not enough. Kudler can conduct focus groups along with the surveys. Kudler also may send out surveys in English and in Asian languages to gather data.Kudler can promote brand awareness by providing more tastetesting’s and wine samplings at community events or by sponsoring an event of its own. It is suggested by MJB marketing that Kathy does not open any new locations at the present time until adequate research has been done on the other geographical areas. The locations in DelMar and Encinitas are still struggling and until these stores at least break even there could be a negative financial impact on the success of all the stores, if new locations are opened. It is costly to get a store up and running and until the DelMar and Encinitas locations is up to par Kudlercannot afford to expand at the current time. Focusing on Kudler’s current strengths and eliminating Kudler’s weaknesses will give Kudler a competitive advantage over its competitors.Kudler could offer discounted/promotional items and advertise towards the first of the month this will help to make sales because the target consumers typically get paid towards the beginning of the month. However, some cultures foresee discounts as something being wrong with the product, so it must clearly be defined that the products are not defective. Kudler will relay the correct cultural meanings into advertisements such as Asian symbols and symbols that maintain current customers. Many consumers have a greater appreciation for protecting the earth so promoting recycling at Kudler will cater to these conscientious consumers and also show Kudler’s social responsibility as an organization. Kudler could make the shopping experience easy and more comfortable by providing an online ordering service. This will satisfy a consumer want of not having to wait in line for a long time. This method of service is becoming increasingly more popular and will give Kudler an advantage over its competitors. Kudler Fine Foods will continue to grow and expand in the future. They are prepared to quantify demographic, psychographic, behavioral, and geographic data to serve their target market and perfect their marketing strategies. Acknowledging these important consumers attributes and observing them, contents the current consumer and attracts the potential consumer. References Demographic. (2010). Retrieved from www.entrepreneur.com/encyclopedia/term/82226.html How to devlop a product positioning strategy. (2007). Retrieved from www.wahm.com/articles/how-to-develop-a-product-positioning-strategy.html Market segmentation. (2007). Retrieved from www.netmba.com/marketing/market/segmentation/ Peter, P. J. (2008). Consumer behavior and marketing strategy (8th ed.). Retrieved from Read the full article

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othersportsnews-blog · 8 years ago

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Are Mike Trout and Bryce Harper baseball's all-time best superstar duo?

New Post has been published on https://othersportsnews.com/are-mike-trout-and-bryce-harper-baseballs-all-time-best-superstar-duo/

Are Mike Trout and Bryce Harper baseball's all-time best superstar duo?

Mike Trout is back just in the nick of time. The Angels superstar, who skipped six agonizing months with a torn ligament in his left thumb, returned to action Friday, receiving 5 hits and a stroll during L.A.’s weekend series towards Tampa Bay.

Through Trout’s absence, his bizarrely marginalized place as baseball’s consensus ideal player was compromised even further by the Homeric emergence of New York’s Aaron Decide, and the H-word is capitalized not mainly because it really is referring to long balls but somewhat mainly because Decide appears to be part of an historical Greek ballad. No a person — I consider — is essentially suggesting that Decide has replaced Trout as baseball’s ideal player. But it can be argued that, in the hardball zeitgeist, Decide has garnered much more interest than Trout has in the very last a few months or so. It really is rough to quantify a little something like that.

Trout’s return is timely for the Angels mainly because they are a person of several groups mired in the tepid race for the AL’s wild-card slots. Trout on the field equals much more wins, and a person of the unsung tales from the very first 50 percent of the season is how properly L.A. held up in his absence. But the return is timely for the rest of us mainly because it sets up a exceptional assembly between Trout and the only actual applicant to take his ideal-in-baseball crown: Washington’s Bryce Harper. (Sorry, Mr. Decide — put up a several much more 50 percent-seasons like this a person, and we can revisit the issue.)

Are Trout and Harper rivals? It really is tough to see them that way. They play on opposite coasts in different leagues. They’ve still to meet in a Environment Series. Through their time in the majors, the Angels and Nationals have performed just once — an otherwise forgettable a few-recreation series in April 2014. Neither player homered and Harper went just one-for-eleven.

To identify this, I calculated a park-adjusted model of weighted runs developed (wRC) for each individual hitter of the modern period (considering that 1901). For every single season, I calculated the a few-calendar year wRC totals for every single player — that is, the wRC for the season in dilemma furthermore the two preceding seasons. Then I rated them to discover the prime two in-the-minute hitters of every single marketing campaign. Making use of a few-calendar year totals is a improved way to take into account ideal-in-the-minute things to consider, smoothing out a person-calendar year spikes without longevity turning out to be a lot of a variable.

The list notes the very last calendar year for every single a few-calendar year wRC overall. For case in point, for No. 10 on my list — 1999: Mark McGwire and Jeff Bagwell — 1999 denotes the wRC overall from 1997 to 1999.

For Trout and Harper in 2017, I prorated the numbers for the complete season. Then I designed a person fantastical leap: I assumed Harper’s 2016 numbers were an damage-caused fluke and gave him the average between this year’s rate and his 2015 MVP season. Indeed, wellness is a skill, but if Harper retains executing what he’s executing, it would not be tough to argue that very last season was an outlier.

A number of tandems led their respective leagues in a few-calendar year wRC for much more than a person season. For case in point, Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig experienced 4 different blended a few-calendar year performances in the prime 10 of all time. For the repeaters, I retained only the ideal performance. For Ruth and Gehrig, in scenario you happen to be pondering, that was 1925 to 1927, even nevertheless 1925 for Ruth was form of like 2016 for Harper. I consider I examine that he ate as well several sizzling puppies or a little something. — Bradford Doolittle

However it really is organic to pit them towards every single other. A brief Google search of the terms “who improved trout harper” yields 478,000 effects, several of which are legitimate article content pondering which player is improved, or which player you would take very first in a draft. With out reading of any of all those, let me spoil the summary: It really is Trout.

A several many years back, it may have been otherwise. Harper, 24, was on the address of Athletics Illustrated at age 16. Trout was drafted at No. 25 in 2009. Given that then, Trout, 25, has loved arguably the ideal start out to a vocation by any individual at any time. His 48.5 WAR (for each Baseball-Reference.com) by age 24 is the most at any time, and in 2017 he’s properly on his way to his ideal season still.

That is not to say the comparison is preposterous, and if any individual will supplant Trout’s ongoing reign as baseball’s ideal player, it will be Harper. Two many years back, at age 22, Harper put up 9.9 WAR, second-ideal at any time at that age to a younger Ted Williams, who experienced 10.6 WAR in 1941, the calendar year he hit .406. This season, if Harper maintains his current rate, he will be higher up on that list of ideal-by-age-24 gamers, maybe cracking the prime 20.

The main change between the two to date is consistency. Harper’s OPS+ rated No. 24 in the Countrywide League very last calendar year. Many think the downturn was thanks to actual physical complications that Harper wouldn’t really admit. However, Trout has not experienced a down season, not once he established his supreme amount of play. He is put up a person monster season just after a different. What other player could pass up six months and nevertheless not be ruled out of the MVP race?

Through background, we have experienced wonderful baseball debates like this. Ty Cobb vs. Honus Wagner. Hank Aaron vs. Willie Mays. Ted Williams vs. Joe DiMaggio. Ted Williams vs. Stan Musial. Albert Pujols vs. Miguel Cabrera. Albert Pujols vs. Barry Bonds. And on and on. In this scenario, it really is not still a wonderful discussion. It may not even be the right discussion. Due to the fact what I would like to know is this: Why decide a person when we could decide each?

Harper has put any lingering thoughts about his 2016 season to rest. Trout is a calendar year more mature than Harper, around talking. So when you happen to be comparing the vocation treks of the two, Trout’s edge is dulled if you take into account that. Age-intelligent, you happen to be usually comparing Harper’s current season with Trout’s prior season.

It really is known as the Bonds Procedure — strolling a batter intentionally even in the most outlandish scenarios. Right until now, it has used to only a person guy. This is the scenario for — and towards — introducing the reigning American League MVP to the list.

As a result of that prism, Harper has experienced a improved OPS+ in his age-19 and age-22 seasons. The early-season leap Trout designed this calendar year may appear for Harper up coming calendar year. Trout earns the edge in most accounts in the nonhitting sides of the recreation. While his baserunning is unquestionably much more useful than Harper’s, it really is value noting that Harper has a improved vocation mark in defensive runs saved, albeit when enjoying a usually a lot less demanding defensive posture (RF, when Trout plays CF).

We have noted that Trout is on a ideal-at any time form of rate. What, then, does it indicate if Harper emerges as an equivalent? What if we do not just have Superman, but Batman as well?

Would that indicate we are observing the ideal tandem of hitters we have at any time viewed in the recreation at the same time?

Let’s run by the Best twelve. Why twelve? Due to the fact a Best 10 is standard, but I needed to produce about No. eleven, and No. twelve justifies to be composed about. Anyway, just after we get by this list, we are going to get to my broader position.

Note: The list identifies the very last calendar year for every single a few-calendar year overall of weighted runs developed (wRC). For case in point, for No. eleven on my list — 2004: Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols — 2004 denotes the wRC overall from 2002 to 2004. For even further particulars, see the accompanying inline: How the ideal were established.

twelve. Early thirties: Oscar Charleston and Josh Gibson (mysterious blended 3-calendar year wRC)

The rating listed here isn’t really crucial mainly because we have no data to make the calculations, but the very likely peak interval for the overlapping elements of their respective occupations probably would have fallen in the very first 50 percent of the thirties. There is no question in my brain that this duo, widely regarded the best hitters in Negro Leagues background, would rank higher on the list. Or maybe at the really prime of it.

Barry Bonds’ prime many years coincided with the start out of Albert Pujols’ run of dominance in St. Louis, making the pair a person of the ideal baseball has at any time viewed at the same time. Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Pictures

eleven. 2004: Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols (301.eight blended a few-calendar year wRC)

The end of late-peak Barry and the middle of Pujols’ decade-long peak. It was a great time in the Countrywide League.

10. 1999: Mark McGwire and Jeff Bagwell (311.6)

In this article are a few much more Countrywide League sluggers who typified the period when they were at their ideal.

9. 2002: Jason Giambi and Barry Bonds (317.eight)

One more Bonds overall look. As for Giambi, there was a rationale his departure from Oakland led to each the ebook and film versions of “Moneyball.”

eight. 1941: Ted Williams and Joe DiMaggio (322.two)

As wonderful as this rivalry was, consider of what it would have appeared like if Environment War II experienced hardly ever transpired and Williams hadn’t shed a several many years.

7. 1949: Ted Williams and Stan Musial (323.75)

I have usually loved this interleague rivalry, generally mainly because their occupations spanned around the same expanse of time and mainly because they experienced this kind of wildly different personalities. Are you a Ted or a Stan?

6. 2017: Mike Trout and Bryce Harper (324.two)

Would we be executing this piece if they did not clearly show up on the list? Maintain reading, nevertheless, mainly because this rating is only the jumping off position.

5. 2001: Sammy Sosa and Jason Giambi (324.4)

Indeed, it was an unusual time in baseball, and I’m absolutely sure this pair will elicit a specific response in several.

4. 1920: George Sisler and Babe Ruth (338.two)

And so we start out the Babe Ruth part of the proceedings, beginning with a pairing from the many years right before Gehrig arrived together. What is actually extraordinary is that Ruth went specifically from becoming a star left-handed pitcher to the really ideal hitter in the recreation.

3. 1936: Lou Gehrig and Jimmie Foxx (349.9)

This is the calendar year just after Ruth retired, which exhibits how long Gehrig was an all-time wonderful hitter in his have right.

two. 1921: Rogers Hornsby and Babe Ruth (368.one)

Ruth’s 1921 season is on the limited list of the best at any time, and this a few-calendar year extend from 1919 to 1921 was the interval when he redefined the recreation. He overshadowed everybody, together with Hornsby, who, talking of limited lists, is higher on any list of ideal-at any time right-handed hitters.

one. 1927: Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth (394.two)

Babe Ruth, right, and Lou Gehrig, left, posted 4 different blended a few-calendar year performances in the prime 10 of all time. Waite Hoty Selection/Getty Pictures

This is the blended output Trout and Harper are capturing for — if not this season, then in the seasons to appear. Only for the complete impact, they would have to sign up for forces in the same lineup. Can you envision?

If we “repair” Harper’s 2016 season and restore Trout’s lacking months, this ability duo will belong on any list of contemporaneous historical tandems. However, I have left out a vital variable: Both continue to be at ages that recommend the ideal may lie ahead

With that in brain, here’s a person much more brief list. These are the youngest blended ages of the seventy three tandems in our group: one. Trout-Harper, 2017 (48.6) two. Williams-DiMaggio, 1941 (49.4) 3. Willie Mays-Mickey Mantle, 1957 (51.9).

Due to the fact of Environment War II, Williams and DiMaggio hardly ever bought a chance to entirely capitalize on that budding rivalry, nevertheless what they ended up with was unquestionably deserving of the annals. However, we are just entering the meat of the Trout-Harper period, which may end up deserving of a several epic poems, as well. It may, in fact, grow to be the most memorable epic still.

In the meantime, whom in the MLB business office can we chat to about tweaking the interleague routine so we can see this matchup much more often?

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sunpeach911-blog · 8 years ago

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How to Lose Weight in a Week

With regards to building the correct eating routine for you, just keeping away from what didn't work in the past or indiscriminately taking after what seems to work now is vital How to Lose Weight in a Week, yet it has numerous impediments. The greatest of which is understanding that advancing to another level of accomplishment and How to Lose Weight in a Week outcomes more often than not implies distinguishing blemishes in your present arrangement, and understanding why what you're doing won't not be the most proficient approach to take care of business.The third govern of eating is hurling out a large portion of what you think you think about abstaining from food since it may be the reason you're as of now stuck in a level.

While control #1 has a lot of exemptions, it's generally essential for even the savviest of health food nuts and wellness professionals. Why? Since what we know regularly makes it harder for us to acknowledge new data or to question what we as of now expect as reality.

How to Lose Weight Fast

To help give more clarity, How to Lose Weight in a Week this guide as a beginning stage for any eating routine arrangement you make. It will help you comprehend what you we think about great eating regimen configuration, and also what variables may identify with seeing the most outcomes out of your body.The certain part of checking your macros How to Lose Weight in a Week is that science is on your side. This is something worth being thankful for in case you're searching for an approach to at long last kick off weight reduction disappointment or a stagnant muscle building arrangement.

The laws of thermodynamics are genuine, so on the off chance that you get a decent large scale arrange for that comprehends movements, how to control the supplements, and how to figure sorts and span of work out, then playing by the numbers is an incredible way to comes about. In the event that you comprehend what you need to look like or a have an objective weight, how to lose weight in a week as your beginning stage How to Lose Weight in a Week. This will permit you to eat towards an objective.

All things considered, macros are not for everybody. Yes, tallying works, however now and then the calculating accomplishes more damage than great from a viable point of view. Getting to be Best Diet To Lose Weight Fast For Women about the amount to eat or stressing Lose Weight Fast being 5 grams on every day how to lose weight in a week consumption How to Lose Weight in a Week is something that is controlled by your identity.

For a few people, making sustenance formats that consider "serving-measure" based eating is a style that adopts a large scale strategy without all the math. This implies separating your suppers into sorts of “how to lose weight in a week”, and after that simply filling in the crevices with what you need to eat.

Best Diet To Lose Weight Fast For Women

In case you're not going to tally every one of your proteins, carbs, and fats. be that as it may, despite everything you may be best served by a 1-week checking and measuring period that will help you learn partition sizes.

In the event that that still feels like excessively, begin by figuring out how to quantify parcel sizes by eyeballing amounts. The pictures underneath (through Precision Nutrition) range awesome begin to envision singular segment sizes.In any case, in case you're battling with your eating routine, the most ideal approach to begin in the correct bearing and gain ground is by recording your how to lose weight fast for women.

Research in the New England Journal of Medicine has recommended that those on a weight reduction slim down tend to under-report the amount they eat by as much as 47 percent and overestimate how much practice they perform by 51 percent. You don't should be a math major to perceive how this winds up.

Recording your sustenances does not need to be a long haul approach; the exact inverse, it's a transient speculation that will offer you eating flexibility for the long haul. In the meantime, it will permit you to be straightforward with what's going on in your body and why you won't not see the outcomes you need.The rules above are for individuals who spend anyplace between 4 to 7 hours of preparing every week. This incorporates a wide range of movement, for example, weight preparing, recreational cardio, and games.

These numbers are not intended to meet the calorie needs of perseverance and continuance sort competitors who have a high preparing volume. This kind of individual needs more carbs.

The adjusted breakdown of the guarantees enough protein for muscle repair, development, and support. It gives enough fat to bolster ideal testosterone creation. It supplies enough carbs to give preparing stamina, and cooperative energy with the protein for muscle development. It doesn't tend to give carbs in overabundance of the individual's preparation and physical action requests; rather it bolsters incline picks up and incline mass upkeep.

how to lose weight fast for women

Perhaps above all, it takes into consideration the full scope of nutrition types so as to get the correct macronutrients, as well as a decent scope of micronutrients. By concentrating on how to lose weight fast for women parts (rather than simply concentrating on specific nourishments), it permits you to center both around sustenances that are beneficial for you (creature and plant proteins, vegetables, natural products, stringy starches, dairy) while as yet empowering you the adaptability to eat how to lose weight fast for women that you appreciate.All things considered, inquire about in the International Journal of Obesity recommends that the eating routine you can take after for the long haul is dependably the best alternative for you.

Despite the fact that liquor and pastries are not recorded, they can be utilized sparinglly. These how to lose weight fast for women are a very individual matter; explore demonstrates that 1-2 drinks for each day may have medical advantages without preventing constitution objectives.

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annieboltonworld · 5 years ago

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Juniper Publishers-Open Access Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources

Water poverty Analysis using Water Poverty Index (WPI) -A critical Review

Authored by PJ Sajil Kumar

Abstract

Water poverty is a condition in which people does not have access to safe, clean and enough quantity of water to satisfy their needs. This brief review gives a glimpse to the water poverty analysis using a holistic water management tool called Water Poverty Index (WPI), which is developed by Sullivan et al. to consider all the aspects involved with water management.). Water poverty index (WIP) encapsulates data on water resources, access, use, socio-economic capacity and the environmental water quality, which aids water monitoring agencies to analyze water situation in the giver region. The major advantages and the challenges in the implementation of this method is critically evaluating in this mini review.

Keywords: Water Stress; Water poverty index (WPI); Water Poverty; Water Management; Water Analysis; WPI Components

Introduction

Water as essential life giving compound, which is vital in keeping all the live alive life on the earth. In the recent decades, anthropogenic activities and many other reasons have created so much difficulties even in providing basic water supply for inhabitants from both surface and groundwater resources. This poverty for water or richness of water within the area, has to be calculated not only based on available water resources, but also by considering the factors such as accessibility, capacity, use and environmental factors Sullivan CA [1]. Water stress is an emerging issue in many of the developing countries since the rapid urbanization led to increase in population rate, economic growth which forced in increase in the solid waste generation and thereby decreasing the quality of water due to the pollution, deforestation and other anthropogenic activities and the water became inaccessible for human use. Water stress can effectively be evaluated using several methods among which Water Poverty Index (WPI) is the most widely used method. In this short review, we will be critically discussing about the same Sullivan CA [1].

Water Poverty Index (WPI)

Water Poverty Index (WPI) is a simple, open and transparent tool, one that will appeal the politicians and decision makers, and at the same time empower poor people to better participate in water sector interventions and budgets development in general Sullivan CA [1]. The elementary advantage of the index is that it encapsulates more than one measure of influencing factors in a single number, and one line representation of the whole picture.

In its first iteration, Sullivan et al. [2] developed the WPI to consider all the aspects involved with water management. Consequently, the WPI explains water poverty according to five components - Resource(R), Access (A), Capacity(C), Use (U) and Environment (E). The calculation process for the WPI is simple, cost effective and easy to understand even though it requires large micro data sets. Today, the WPI method is extensively used to study water poverty. To calculate the values for the above-mentioned five components of WPI, Cook et al. [3] used Bayesian Networks connecting water and poverty in the Volta Basin of Ghana. Lawrence et al. [4] published a comparative study, showing the WPI of different countries across the world. Castelazo et al. [5] incorporated the concept of flood risk vulnerability as a variable into the WPI for Juarez Municipality in Mexico. In addition, Vyver [6] calculated WPI and established Water Poverty Maps for some regions in South Africa. Within no time the research of WPI ranged from small scale community to country level. Identifiable work has also been carried out in Nepal where Merz [7], used Sullivan et al method, quantifies the components of WPI for the Jhiku and Yarsha catchments, both bordering the Indrawati Basin. Moreover, the WPI is one of the best tools to study climate vulnerability. In fact, with the addition of just a few components, the WPI can be used to calculate the Climate Vulnerable Index (CVI) Sullivan CA [8].

WPI Structure

The five components explained above are combined to calculate the WPI. The final value of WPI for a particular location can be calculated as described by Sullivan et al. [1] is presented below.

Where, Wi is the Weight applied to each of five components

R - Resource

A - Access

U - Use

C - Capacity

E - Environment

These weights (WI) are constrained to be non-negative and sum to unity. Each of the components is standardized so that the value of WPI falls between 0 and 100.The highest value 100 is taken to describe the best situation whilst the worst is 0.

The various sub components which help to calculate the five components of WPI are listed in below (Table 1).

Critical evaluation

If the In case WPI is updated at reasonable intervals, it can be used to monitor the progress. . Even though WPI had found a great relevance in the sustainable water management sector in policy making, there are few defects in the current index. In particular, two major weaknesses of WPI index have been identified by Gine Garriga [9]. Rather than using the available data for the calculation of WPI, the writer's developers of the index have used the data needed to construct WPI. Another major drawback of the current WPI is the equal weight age given to the components is not justifiable. Moreover, a single number alone cannot reveal anything about the complexity of water issues. So alternatives to tackle these issues are very important. Further studies have proved that multivariate techniques can be used to give the weight age. In this technique, weight age is given based on the variations in the original variables Gine Garriga [10,11]. Furthermore, detailed studies are required to criticize the existing WPI and to suggest a new improved WPI calculation method for the sustainable future.

Conclusion

This brief review tries to portray overall picture of water poverty index as a tool to evaluate water situation of the particular region, which helps policy planners to evaluate the threats and to take immediate action. Similarly, decision makers, after estimating all the five components, will be able to realize and identify the sectors which need significant attention in regards to the water needs. In a nutshell, the WPI makes us understand the difficulties of water issues by integrating the physical, social, economic and environmental aspects by linking water issues to poverty. Most importantly it is suggested to make further detailed research to overcome the critics to have a holistic tool which yields precise results. Use of multivariate techniques to the weight assessment is suggested to get better results.

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ecadimi-blog · 6 years ago

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The Importance of Demographic/Psychographic Information within the Marketing Strategy

Data Memo Consumer Behavior MKT435 Data Memo MJB MARKETING INC. Over the next few weeks the marketing executive of MJB Marketing Incorporation will be assisting Kudler Fine Foods in the process of evaluating the opportune times to implement psychographic, demographic, behavioral, and geographic segmentation into their marketing assessments. It is imperative that Kudler Fine Foods realizes the magnitude of demographic and psychographic data and the pertinent information these data’s convey about their current and possible future consumers. MJB Marketing Corporation will devise a positioning strategy for Kudler Fine Foods while contemplating the possible arrays of segmentation to assess the various competitors within the market. During all phases of the project MJB Marketing Incorporation will provide clear concise reasoning’s for the recommendations. Kudler Fine Foods must estimate the demographic characteristics such as age, occupation, gender, income, education, and other like values to properly proceed to expanding their stores. In order to create the best location and store attributes it will be necessary to pinpoint geographic, demographic, psychographic, and behavioral segmentation. These variables must be accounted for to create the ideal marketing mix. Kudler will need to determine the answers to certain questions such as how many homes are rented or owned in the area, what type of transportation will the prospective consumers be utilizing, what is the mean age of the area, what amount of disposable income is available, is the area composed of families or singles primarily, what are the ethnic backgrounds of community members, and what type of activities or leisure endeavors do community members enjoy? MJB will assist Kudler in finding demographic data on the US census bureau website. This demographic data will prove whether the chosen areas for expansion will be fruitful. Calculating demographics and psychographics allows the marketing strategist to discover what the consumer needs and or wants. Demographic, geographic, psychographic, and behavioral segmentation should be the starting point where at MJB and Kudler will assess where and who the target consumers are during the marketing plan. Kudler must maintain the interest of its current consumers in this process. Kudler would profit from marketing its products to the resident Asian community. The Asian subculture grew to 80% in the 1980’s and continues to grow especially in California. Kathy has already expressed her desire to serve this population and MJB agrees it is a good subculture to market to. The Asian community primarily consists of married dual income families with the finances to purchase Kudler’s fine products. Determining psychographic, demographic, geographic, and behavioral variables in the Asian community was conducted. MJB researched and found that people with similar cultural backgrounds tend to have some of the same thought processes. When marketers identify and segment similar groups they can study the macro- social environment which includes social class, sub-culture, and culture. These environments have substantial influence on the individuals in this consumer group beliefs, values, behaviors, emotions, and attitudes. Many times learned affective responses are varied throughout these environments, so these consumers may react differently from one another to the marketing strategy of Kudler. However, Kudler can focus on likeness and not complete similarity to group these populations. These distinctions make the macro-social environment effective for market segmentation. Subculture and social class can provide insight into communal cultural values of sizeable units of consumers. Kathy has mentioned that she is aware of the enormous possibilities of patronizing Asian consumers. There is a large concentration of Asians in the California area and marketing to them will be done by stocking their traditional food items, importing the finest Asian wines, and observing and respecting their customs. The micro environment is of high value to Kudler. The micro environment consists of the immediate region wherein social and physical aspects surround the consumer. The typical shopping arena has social aspects like the kinds of consumers attending, the family and friends that are there with the consumer, the amount of crowding, treatment of consumers by the salespeople, and the amount of the salespeople. These features of the shopping arena have the possibility to sway customer’s affective responses, behaviors, and cognitions. Kudler will want to maintain friendly and knowledgeable employees and give off an ambience that attracts the consumer that can afford Kudler’s luxury items.The target class would be upper class men and women from ages forty years to fifty years. Statistical data shows that the baby-boomer generation will account for close to half of the flexible spending over the span of the next couple of decades. This age category has a high percentage rate of college graduates at 46%. They also tend to lean towards physical health and eating well. This group is not out for bargain shopping they appreciate quality goods and have the ability to afford them. Consumers seek to find their own personal identity when contemplating buying products. With Kudler offering a wide assortment of fine wines and gourmet foods Kudler speaks to the consumer want of prestige and sophistication. Kudler will maintain a well lit clean store to shop in to provide a pleasing micro-environment. The store will still include a wine steward. The upper social class will be impressed as well as expectant of a salesperson who can not only decipher the wines but the other gourmet items as well. Kudler must manipulate the environment to facilitate, stimulate, and strengthen the aspired behaviors. The micro-social environment includes the meaningful interactions between individuals, their families, and their reference groups. Kudler will foster a family like environment where customers are urged to bring their children. The children would then be accustomed in gourmet products thus increasing the probability of them being gourmet buyers as adults. To start the positioning strategy marketing research will commence. This is already being done by the survey that Kudler currently provides, but this is not enough. Kudler can conduct focus groups along with the surveys. Kudler also may send out surveys in English and in Asian languages to gather data.Kudler can promote brand awareness by providing more tastetesting’s and wine samplings at community events or by sponsoring an event of its own. It is suggested by MJB marketing that Kathy does not open any new locations at the present time until adequate research has been done on the other geographical areas. The locations in DelMar and Encinitas are still struggling and until these stores at least break even there could be a negative financial impact on the success of all the stores, if new locations are opened. It is costly to get a store up and running and until the DelMar and Encinitas locations is up to par Kudlercannot afford to expand at the current time. Focusing on Kudler’s current strengths and eliminating Kudler’s weaknesses will give Kudler a competitive advantage over its competitors.Kudler could offer discounted/promotional items and advertise towards the first of the month this will help to make sales because the target consumers typically get paid towards the beginning of the month. However, some cultures foresee discounts as something being wrong with the product, so it must clearly be defined that the products are not defective. Kudler will relay the correct cultural meanings into advertisements such as Asian symbols and symbols that maintain current customers. Many consumers have a greater appreciation for protecting the earth so promoting recycling at Kudler will cater to these conscientious consumers and also show Kudler’s social responsibility as an organization. Kudler could make the shopping experience easy and more comfortable by providing an online ordering service. This will satisfy a consumer want of not having to wait in line for a long time. This method of service is becoming increasingly more popular and will give Kudler an advantage over its competitors. Kudler Fine Foods will continue to grow and expand in the future. They are prepared to quantify demographic, psychographic, behavioral, and geographic data to serve their target market and perfect their marketing strategies. Acknowledging these important consumers attributes and observing them, contents the current consumer and attracts the potential consumer. References Demographic. (2010). Retrieved from www.entrepreneur.com/encyclopedia/term/82226.html How to devlop a product positioning strategy. (2007). Retrieved from www.wahm.com/articles/how-to-develop-a-product-positioning-strategy.html Market segmentation. (2007). Retrieved from www.netmba.com/marketing/market/segmentation/ Peter, P. J. (2008). Consumer behavior and marketing strategy (8th ed.). 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