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bonnissance · 7 years ago

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hmm for a small prompt?? what about one of those great tropes where hecate and pippa sleep together for the first time and when hecate wakes up pippa isn't in bed and she imagines that she's left and it was all a mistake etc etc excpet pippa is just making brekky cause she's an angel

Straight up Trope w zero plot bc typing on a phone w rsi while travelling long distances on barely any sleep and no meds to combat brain fuzz means I have negative interest in editing or fleshing.

But they smooch, so worth it 👍

Hicsqueak, an amount of words, light mature for sexual references, CW: Hecate is a bag of brain weasels in a tightly tailored dress, but she’s doing her best!

~*~

Hecate has always been a slow riser. One to snuffle herself awake, come to consciousness a millimeter of newly opened eyelid at a time.

It’s why she has so many charms on her door, for when the girls in her care need attention during the night. To wake her up, and keep her awake, with just a hint of something to make the agonising task of ripping herself from a warm comfy bed of red satin sheets and soft goose feather down just bearable.

Goddess knows how those midnight Mildred Hubble shaped mishaps would turn out if Hecate woke up in a foul mood too.

But when she’s not rudely awoken in the middle of the night, she rises slowly, a yawn and a sigh at a time; stretching out across the span of the bed, shuffling under the blankets to snatch the last moments of warmth before she has to strip back the blankets and face the day.

It’s what she does now, slowly waking, stretching out parts of her body still sore from the night before, moaning ever so slightly w the slow flow of memories of just how she’s come to ache in the first place.

She smiles, a tiny curl at the corner of her lips, a tooth catching on a plump bottom lip: kiss bruised and swollen. Reaches out to tease at a curl of shining blonde hair while she opens her eyes to a sight so long wanted: Pippa Pentangle, bleary eyed and disheseller next to her. Reaches out to search of Pippa, warm and soft and naked laying beside Hecate.

Reaches out, only for her fingers to pass thru nothing. For her palm to fall on empty sheets, to feel just the hint of warmth left over from Pippa’s body.

That faint hint of rapidly cooling heat is the only proof Hecate has save for her traitous, still wanting body that she didn’t imagine the night before.

She wrenches herself awake, sitting up in bed as she blinks rapidly; panic washing thru her as the sheets fall around her waist. No sign of Pippa, save the parted curtains of Hecate’s four poster bed framing a chair now sitting at the wrong angle.

The chair she kicked over in her hast to get Pippa flat in her back. The curtain Pippa almost ripped as she hurried Hecate to join her on the bed. The bed they finally fell asleep in, hours later: soft skin snuggles close and far too much hair wrapped around both of them along w their arms, tho neither of them had the presence of mind to care—too content to fall asleep pressed tight and tired against once another, after all these years.

And yet, she wakes alone. Hecate panics: blood rushing in her ears faster than her racing thoughts as she struggles w the blankets, tears burning at her eyes—how could she be so stupid, to think Pippa could want her, to think she could make Pippa want to stay—when a clatter echoes around the room as Pippa materialises beside the bed, hands full of silverware carrying breakfast in bed for two.

Hecate freezes, halfway to tears, and blinks at Pippa: beaming bright, clearly proud of the array of fruits and pastries she’s manages to rustle up from the kitchen.

Keeps blinking, while Pippa’s smile fades as she takes in Hecate’s bewildered eyes, the red of her cheeks, the hitch in her breathe as she opens and closes her mouth.

She tries to say to hello; tries not to sob: doesn’t really manage either. Starts to curl in on herself; away from Pippa.

‘Hiccup?’ Pippa asks softly, catching Hecate before she falls too far away, placing the tray on the end of the bed and settling beside Hecate’s knee.

She waits, eyes full of nothing but care and concern and patience. It’s the last one that finally prys Hecate’s lips open.

‘I thought you’d gone,’ she admits, only briefly meetings Pippa’s eyes before she has to look away. ‘I though, you—‘ She tries not the choke; stifles a cry instead. ‘I thought you’d left me.’

She can feel the heartache radiate off Pippa.

‘No, sweetheart, never,’ she promises, reaching out. She hesitates, for just a moment, before Hecate opens up her palms and welcomes Pippa’s hands clasped around her own.

Hecate smiles, small and bright, as Pippa explains.

‘I was famished when I woke up, and I thought you might be too.’ She tightens her grip. ‘We did work up something of an appetite last night, did we not?’

Hecate blushes. ‘We did indeed.’

‘Well then,’ Pippa says, as if that sorts everything. Then pauses. Looks at their joined hands. Runs a fingernail over Hecate’s knuckles, deep in thought.

Hecate is about to ask, when Pippa finally looks up. ‘And I’m not leaving, Hiccup. Ever. Not unless you want me to.’

‘I don’t,’ she says without thinking, bc what else would she ever say? Then realises the magnitude of what she’s said, of what Pippa’s said, and blushes. ‘I mean, we both have responsibilities we must return to-‘

‘Eventually,’ Pippa interjects, already trancing circles over the sensible skin of Hecate’s inner wrist.

She tries not to shiver; smiles instead. ‘Right,’ she says, then pauses to let a shaky breath. ‘But until then, I want you here, with me.’ She looks up thru lowered lashes, suddenly unsure again. ‘If that’s what you want too?’

‘It is, Hiccup. I promise.’ Pippa smiles, radiant and bright, Hecate leans forward to kiss that happiness right off Pippa’s lips.

Leans forward, closing her eyes as she lets herself fall, knowing that Pippa will be there when she opens them again.

#anonymouse #hicsqueak #formatting on phones is weird soz #long post #I wrote a thing #the worst witch

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tipco613 · 5 years ago

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New Post has been published on http://cryptonewsuniverse.com/litecoin-news-today-will-litecoin-hit-100-despite-the-current-bull-run/

Litecoin News Today Will Litecoin Hit 100 Despite The Current Bull Run?

Litecoin News Today – Will Litecoin Hit $100 Despite The Current Bull Run?

Litecoin LTC price is still bullish

The $100 mark may be around the corner

The bears may return for LTC price to reach $100

Litecoin news today – The Litecoin price is reportedly going bullish again. As of when this content was published the LTC price has crossed the $80 mark and is set to break in the latest spree. The Litecoin price also tested a critical level under $80 thanks to the 4.75% climb it posted in the last 24 hours. Now analysts have turned bullish about the price of Litecoin predicting that it can move up to the $100 mark. While nearly the entire crypto market is in the green today, LTC has now started as one of the top performers. The price of LTC was trading at $82.99 at press time. The bulls are now pushing to break the further after passing the $80 resistance level.

Can Litecoin Gather Enough Momentum After Breaking the $80 Mark?

Litecoin News Today – Many analysts are arguing that the LTC bears will hold control before the price of Litecoin can move up to after crossing the $80 mark. However, this seems unlikely. Citing the technical indicators particularly the formation of the rising wedge pattern, the analyst believes that the price of Litecoin price may eventually be struck down, particularly if the coin’s key resistance positions of $80 and $100 fails to materialize on time. If this prediction is accurate, and the price of Litecoin fails to reach $100, then a pullback to $63.66 which is the next support level will be more likely.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) suggests that Litecoin’s price is approaching overbought territory. This does not guarantee a pullback. However, this might be a good time to make a profit. The bulls will remain in control for now, despite bearish indicators. The bulls may have dug into their heels. One analyst Alex_Clay said the Litecoin price is beginning to look like a solid investment. He added that Litecoin’s price has finally broken the range and has increased through the predicted price targets. It is now settling above the major resistance levels.

Litecoin LTC Price May Reach $100 Soon

The analyst’s Litecoin price prediction is shared by LemkeCapital another crypto commentator. LemkeCapital states that LTC price can potentially pump hard. If it manages to close above $85, it will likely run-up to the $100 area. If the coin can break through the above-mentioned resistance level, $150 could be on the horizon. If Bitcoin’s price continues its climb as we approach its halving, LemkeCapital says this may push LTC price to new ATHs. Whatever happens, it appears that the price of Litecoin is determined by its momentum to reach $100.

Article Produced By Max Mayer

Max writes about blockchain projects and regulation with a special focus on United States and China. He joined Smarterum after years of writing for various media outlets.

https://smartereum.com/186842/litecoin-news-today-will-litecoin-hit-100-despite-the-current-bull-run/

#cryptocurrency #litecoin #markethive

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dragonflycap · 5 years ago

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4 Trade Ideas for Microsoft: Bonus Idea

Microsoft, $MSFT, started to reverse high off of a March low. By June it had made a new all-time high, but it was not done yet. It continued to a top in July, running against rising trend support, and then settled into consolidation. It broke that to the upside in August and held for a week but then fell back to support, and under prior resistance. The bullish case will focus on the hold at support with a Hammer reversal candle. The bearish case will focus in the failed break out.

The rest of the evidence shows the RSI falling in the bullish zone, but starting to level at prior support. The MACD is about to cross down and positive. Price held over the rising 50 day SMA and finished just under the 20 day SMA. There is support at 211 and 207.75 then 203 and 200 before 195. Resistance higher comes at 217 and 225 then 232. The stock pays a dividend with an annual yield of 0.95% and started trading ex-dividend on August 19th. The company is expected to report earnings next on October 21st.

The September options chain shows large open interest spread from 175 to 220 but then biggest at 230 on the put side. The call side shows it focused and bigger from 220 to 230. The October chain builds to a peak at the 210 put, while the call side is also biggest there, and then tails to 250. The October 23 Expiry chain, the first covering the earnings report, has very light open interest. The November chain has been open much longer and shows small amounts of open interest spread from 175 to 220 on the put side. The call side sees massive amounts at the 220 and 240 strikes.

Microsoft, Ticker: $MSFT

Trade Idea 1: Buy the stock on a move over 217 with a stop at 210.

Trade Idea 2: Buy the stock on a move over 217 and add an October 210/200 Put Spread ($4.65) while selling an October 240 Call ($4.65) to fund the protection.

Trade Idea 3: Buy the November 220/October 235 Call Diagonal ($10.70) while selling the October 195 Put ($6.00) to partially fund it.

Trade Idea 4: Buy the November 190/220/240 Call Spread Risk Reversal for a $1.20 credit.

If you like what you see sign up for more ideas and deeper analysis using this Get Premium link.

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which wrapping up August and heading into the unofficial end of summer, saw the equity markets finally ran out of gas and pull back.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue in consolidation while Crude Oil possibly moves to a downtrend. The US Dollar Index is moving to the upside possibly out of consolidation while US Treasuries consolidate. The Shanghai Composite looks to consolidate as well while Emerging Markets pause in their uptrend.

The Volatility Index looks to push up towards the June highs making the road rough for equity markets. Their charts are showing possible reversals or at least indecision on the longer timeframe. On the shorter timeframe the IWM, the QQQ and SPY ended the week with possible reversal candles though adding confusion to the story. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

#$MSFT

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letsmarconicolo-blog · 6 years ago

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The Leading Crypto Performers : BSV, XTZ, TRX, LTC, ATOM and OKB*

“What Libra is to Retail Customers, So is Bakkt to Institutional Investors.”

On 18th July, Bakkt Digital Asset Summit took place. Accordingly, the Managing Director and quant strategist at Fundstrat Global Advisors Sam Doctor said in advance that Bitcoin futures contracts of Bakkt might get launched in the recent quarter. Also, Fidelity Digital Assets Services, the crypto arm of Fidelity, has applied for the license with the Financial Services’ Department, New York. After approval, the custodial service will get start in the state of New York. These services have to deal with the concerns of the institutional players and they might move along with their arrival.

Cryptocurrencies have started a new bull market and it seems to be quite a modern one. As an intact of an uptrend, dips have become the buying opportunity. Here we have listed the top five crypto performers in the market in just the seven days gone by. Let us have a look at each one to know if they are having any buy setups or not.

BSV / USD

Bitcoin SV’s Quasar upgrade will get completed on 24th July, and it will be able to surge the default block size hard cap from the 128 MB to 2 GB. Just wait for over a few months and BSV will be able to handle thousands of the transactions in each second. Trading has been launched by DRIVE Markets in Bitcoin SV. BSV / USD are undoubtedly the top performer among all other cryptocurrencies. In just seven days, it reached close to 25%. The question left is only one now, will it be able to continue further and upsurge or at a higher level, it may witness profit booking?

As per shown in the chart, BSV / USD pair broke down to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in this weekend of the rally, but at the lower level, sharp buying has been seen and it has upsurge the price. Thus, it shows demand at the lower levels which direct towards the positive side. The price can reach up to $214.210 and even above to $255.620. The uptrend will continue if the bulls make the price to go upward to new height.

In the past two weeks, after forming the large ranges, it is expected that the explosive nature will cool down and pair will enter for two weeks in consolidation. It may turn negative too if the price turns back from the above resistance and plunges to $107. But turning negative is less likely to happen.

XTZ / USD

Tezos is in the second position among the best performers in the past seven days and surged close to 20%. The question is will it be able to maintain its price range and upsurge?

As per shown in the chart, XTZ / USD is bounded in between $0.33 and $1.85. In previous three weeks, bulls have defended the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally which is $0.902128. Bulls aren’t able to surge the price above $1.295480, which means that at a higher level only we can find profit booking. The moving averages are horizontal and RSI is near to 50, it shows that digital currency might unite for further more weeks.

The pair can rally to $1.85 if it breaks out of $1.295480. $1.85 break out will be able to start a new uptrend and it has long term objective to reach the target of $3.37. Hence, traders can buy close above the margin of $1.295480 and can keep up the stop loss of $0.80. Well, our bullish view can become invalid if the direction of the price gets reversed from $1.295480 and plummets below $0.829651. This probably may create a drop of $0.33.

TRX / USD

Tron’s CEO Justin Sun tweeted, “Something big will happen next week along with the Warren Buffet lunch.” He has invited many powerful people to join the meet and have lunch together with powerful investors. Well, who knows what may be the outcome of the meeting?

Last week, TRX / USD pair broke down of the channel. And yet the bears broke down the critical point of $0.022 during the week, it is unsustainable for its price to go at the lower level. However, since people are buying TRX / USD too much, its price has come back into the channel and it is a positive sign.

At the downtrend line, there is a negligible resistance, above which the pair can surge to $0.040. Resistance’s breakout can surge the price to $0.050. Traders can wait for the price to upsurge the downtrend line in order to buy it. Stop-loss can be set aside at $0.020 as if this provision gives away, drop to $0.017740 or below can probably lead to the retest of its yearly low.

LTC / USD

Litecoin has something special to know about, it is recently named as the official cryptocurrency of Miami Dolphins. The crypto coin is going to become more visible in between NFL fans. But it is still unsure, that in just a few days, will the price be bounded in the range or it will upsurge?

As per shown in the chart, a few weeks earlier, the coin has failed to break out the ascending channel, after which the LTC / USD pair plunged below the channel last week. Bears shadowed it with the collapse of the provision at $83.65. On the other hand, it is not possible for the coin to sustain the lower level and so the price bounced back quickly. Thus, it shows that at a lower level, demand is high.

At present, at the channel line, the bulls are facing resistance and the line is acting as a resistance now which was acting as support previously. Yet if the price comes back into the channel, it will result in the positive sign. Next level is $140.3450 to watch on the upside. Hence, it is good for the traders to wait before buying as the price may come back again into the channel. At the recent lows of $76, stop loss can be kept. Well, our bullish view can become invalid if, from the channel, the price comes down and plunges below $76. Probability of $58 drop can be seen in such a case.

ATOM / USD

Cosmos (ATOM) is rallying near to 5% in the past seven days. Questions arise, is this the beginning of new uptrend or it is just a pullback in a downtrend?

As per shown in the chart, due to the history of short trading, we analyze the daily chart for ATOM / USD pair. Pair has given up a lot of ground in the recent correction. At present, it is trying to bounce off the $3.6043–$3.4101 support zone.

At the 20-day EMA, the resistance can be faced by a pullback. To see the bottom place, we can look toward the next fall towards the support zone. The price break of $3.4101 downwards at the time of next fall, at $2.9277, it can retest the lows.

On the contrary, if the pair echoes of the support zone and breaks out of the 20-day EMA, most probably it will reach 50-day SMA and above it $6.15. Hence, at the time of next fall, traders can look over the price and buy above 20-day EMA, on a breakout. Stops can set below $3.40.

OKB / USD*

OKB is a world-leading cryptocurrency exchange. It is the native token of OKEx. It is trading well above its listing price. This token offers its customers varied kind of opportunities to set up the OKEx partner exchanges, to settle down the trading fees and on the OK jumpstart platform, subscribe to the new token sale.

The total supply of OKB is 1 billion, of which only 300 million are in circulation and the rest is locked up until 2022. OKB Buy-Back & Burn Program will benefit the long-term holders, to be done every 3 months. The Token currently works under the ERC-20 protocol, but will soon migrate to OKChain’s core network, developed by OKEx, which is in its final stages of testing. In its assessment report, Shinobi Capital, a well-known block and cryptographic consultant, expects OKB to take advantage of the development of the OKChain network and better market conditions for crypto coins. OKB is expected to reach a market capitalization of about $7.068 billion by 2020.

OKB is included in Bitfinex’s list and tries to partner with other exchanges to further expand the ecosystem. During the press, the token ranked at 1,878 on CoinMarketCap with a 24-hour volume of $142,547,972. So, is this a good opportunity to extract the OKB before the prices are shot?

As per shown in the chart, on 18th May 2018, the OKB / USD pair reached the highest value of $6.68, and on 13th January 2019, from there lost a lot of space during crushing the bear market and fell to a low of $0.5718. On the other hand, it participated in recovery and rose to a high of $2.5566 on 3rd April. In just 3 months, this is a 347% profit. The withdrawal then found support at Fibonacci’s retracement level of 61.8% upward movement. It combines between $1.30 and $1.829 for a few days before exploding. It was again in the range of $1.55 — $2.09 for a few days.

The price is currently out of range and is likely to move to $2.5566, which will act as a solid resistance. If this level is lowered, the price can move up to $4 and above to $5.40. The two moving averages are gradually tilting upward, suggesting that the bulls prevail. On the other hand, if bears defend $2.5566, the digital currency may remain within the range of $2.09 to $2.5566 for a few days. It will lose momentum on a break below the 50-day SMA and on the collapse of $1.2616, it will turn into negative.

#btc #trx #xtz #ltc #litecoin #bsv

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giancarlonicoli · 6 years ago

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After a wild 2018, Mark Orsley - Head of Macro Strategy for Prism (and formerly with RBC), is out with a review of his 2018 "Costanza Trades," while offering his comprehensive thoughts for next year.

***

It’s that time of year again. Stockings, dreidels, Festivus poles, and, of course, the inevitable truckload of bank “2019 Year Ahead” pieces cluttering your inboxes which are about as attractive as getting coal in your stockings. However, these pieces are useful in some regards, as they are very good at nailing the consensus themes and are excellent counter-indicators. Long time readers will know that The Macro Scan takes another twist at year end, to present next year’s top “Costanza Trades.”

For those of you not familiar with George Costanza, his character on the sitcom Seinfeld could do no right when it came to employment, dating, or life in general. In one episode, George realizes over lunch at the diner with Jerry that if every instinct he has is wrong, then doing the opposite must be right. George resolves to start doing the complete opposite of what he would do normally. He orders the opposite of his normal lunch, and he introduces himself to a beautiful woman that he normally would never have the nerve to talk to. "My name is George,” he says, “I'm unemployed, and I live with my parents." To his surprise, she is impressed with his honesty and agrees to date him!

I find employing the Costanza method to trading an interesting exercise. Ask yourself this: what are the trades that make complete sense and all your instincts say are right? Now consider the opposite. Basically what you end up constructing is an out of consensus portfolio.

Employing the Costanza method can identify interesting, non-consensus trade ideas that could kick in alpha. Last year’s top 7 Costanza trades netted 5 of 7 WINNERS (some with huge gains), and past years have all been successful: 2017 had 5 of 6 winners (and 1 tie), 2016 had 7 of 10 winners, and 2015 had 7 of 10 winners. Let’s quickly review last year’s trades…

2018 Costanza Trades:

Long UST 10yrs = trying to work now but a loser as yields were 35bps higher

Long Bunds = winner as yields were 18bps lower

Long EUR/USD = worked early in the year but turned loser, -5%

Short EEM = huge winner, EM crushed 19%

Long IG protection (IG spread wideners)/Short LQD = another huge winner, IG CDX 44bps wider (doubled)

Short Euro Stoxx and Nikkei = both big winners; each index was down 15%

Short Bitcoin vol = worked well all year but has risen recently, still 50-day is 22 vols lower

Bonus: Long active/short passive = going to put this as a tie. Passive won out most of the year, but is currently getting crushed/about to get absolutely rinsed. Also, in a classic bottom signal, active Hedge Funds/PM’s were shuttered around the street in Q4 at the absolute worse time. Active is now starting to have its day, and the passive tsunami is receding.

Last year’s list was one of the most difficult to develop. Going into 2018, the market was divided between those who thought risk assets had gone too far and were due for a correction, and those who believed the economy is booming so let the good times roll. To be fair, both turned out to be true at different points throughout the year.

This year is a piece of cake, as sentiment for risk assets have wildly shifted (for good reason) bearish. With that, I give you the 2019 Costanza trades in no particular order – or in other words, the trades that you absolutely feel pained to do right now:

2019 Costanza Trades:

Long FANGs

Receive credit protection in IG and HY (aka long LQD and HYG)

Long Eurodollar spreads (EDZ9/EDZ0)

Long Bunds

Short Gold

Long WTI crude

Long AUD/USD

Short EM

Long Bitcoin

Bonus: Long Trump

Let’s go through each and assess the probabilities of Costanza being profitable (probabilities are purely off the cuff estimates for arguments sake)…

1) Long FAANGs

Everyone loved them on the way up in 2018 and you had to own them to keep up with the market but now the FAANG’s, and tech broadly, are contaminated.

Although street research is once again roundly predicting higher equity indices in 2019 (as they always do - insert rolling eyes emoji), market consensus among those that take actual risk has shifted extremely bearish. Funds have grossed down or liquidated, RSIs are oversold, and DSIs are near 0.

However, the next shoe to drop is the retail investor exodus (it has partially started) that could lead to the mother of all passive unwinds. Imagine the horror on the face of the average investor as they open their Q4/year-end statement in a few weeks and sees the wealth destruction that has taken place in Q4. The natural investment psyche of the retail investor will be to sell and I think it’s hard for all of us to fathom just how widely owned FAANG’s are within index ETF’s. Therefore, I would have to imagine this trade will not work for Costanza right away, and there is severe risk that a deeper correction could continue into 2019.

What is the major headwind for Costanza with regards to his FAANG long and tech names more generally? Government regulation. Higher rates and wages have been a thorn in the side for margins but more than anything; it is the government’s involvement in Silicon Valley’s business model that has and will continue to be a major hindrance for tech multiple expansion. There is not much Congress agrees on these days, but Tech regulation, especially with regards to privacy laws, is the one thing. Ditto in Europe, where the governments are actually playing even rougher. Some recent data points:

Google CEO Sundar Pichai, who boycotted a Congressional hearing this summer, is now playing ball with Congress saying he supports regulation legislation.

The Federal Trade Commission still has an open investigation into whether Facebook’s conduct violated a previous settlement with the agency.

DC’s Attorney General is suing Facebook for “allegedly letting outside companies improperly access user data and for failing to properly disclose that fact.”

Europe’s new far-reaching privacy laws and anti-trust investigations on tech companies.

Uber being sued for anti-competitive practices.

President Trump has said his administration is seriously looking into monopolistic behavior of Facebook, Google and Amazon.

Those are just a few of many. The days of uninterrupted, carte blanche for Tech are a thing of the past, and thus a major regime change is happening. The only question is: is it all priced or not? The technicals indicate not.

FANG index formed classic head and shoulder top. The neckline is broken and the formation targets ~1500 which is still 30% lower form here…

Instinct: margin compression from higher yields/wages, global government scrutiny, and retail investor unwind will lead to a much deeper correction.

Costanza: funds have already purged these names, sentiment is at extreme lows, valuations more reasonable, and Tech is still the wave of the future.

Estimated probability of Costanza being right: 25%. The days of tech rising unadulterated are over. I think we can say that conservatively. In my opinion, the government’s involvement in their business puts a top in tech for quite some time, at least in regards to tech names that have thrived on the collection of consumer data and/or don’t pay enough tax/postage. If the chart above is proven right, that 30% hole will be tough to climb out of by year-end 2019. I would rather buy THAT dip than this current dip. Costanza is a braver man than I.

This also means broad US equity indices will struggle, albeit S&Ps not as much due to the “safe haven” names embedded within that index. However, since 2001 with similar extreme levels of being oversold, the market has been higher 100% of the time 1-year later, with an average return of 23%. So Costanza has hope given the magnitude of the selloff and poor sentiment; I just find it unlikely he will be happy in the first half of the year with his FAANG long.

2) Receive credit protection in IG and HY (aka long LQD andHYG)

A similar call to the above long equities, since correlations run high with credit. However, there are other issues with credit besides general risk sentiment, namely the massive amount of outstanding corporate debt, the large percentage of that debt that will need to be rolled, and the potential for credit downgrades should the economy enter a recession (which is what the front end rates market is pricing).

The amount of non-financial corporate debt-to-GDP has never been higher…

The US corporate refi tsunami is upon us…

This “maturity wall” which spikes next year and will likely need to be rolled comes at the inopportune time of the collapse in crude oil prices. The energy sector is a big user of the US credit market. Thus the risk for 2019 is the US credit market seizes up in the face of the refi wave into a recession. A toxic combination and we can add in the fact that the European credit market will have less support going forward with the ECB stepping back next year.

ITRAXX Xover Total Return Index is rolling over…

Instinct: the US economy is saturated with corporate debt and it is time to pay the piper with the coming refi wave. Everything gets exasperated if the US economy slips into a recession which will lead to higher default rates.

Costanza: the worst is priced in, GE credit widening is a one off non-systemic issue, and the economy will regain traction especially if Trade Wars are settled in 2019

Estimated probability of Costanza being right: 35%. I will assign this a little higher probability of working than tech longs. I am definitely concerned about the “maturity wall” and the trajectory of the US economy in 2019. For IG to widen out from here, you have to really believe the economy is falling off a cliff in such a way that defaults will finally rise, which then leads to even higher spreads and more defaults. It is not unrealistic, thus why I believe it is more likely that credit tightening won’t work. The one major point the credit market has going for it is the technical chart, which says that most of the move is played out. As opposed to tech charts, IG has reached its spread widener target. Thus Costanza could argue during his “airing of grievances” that all the bad news is priced.

IG CDX reached the 94bps target on its inverse head and shoulder pattern…

3) Long Eurodollar spreads (EDZ9/EDZ0)

What a difference a year makes. Last year at this time, I was pounding the table on the coming resurgence of inflation and how the market was underpricing Fed hiking risk. That successfully played out, but now post-stock market carnage, oil collapse, and peak economic data; Eurodollar spreads are pricing in a recession and rate cuts! Oh my. So this again continues the theme we have seen in the first two Costanza trades, revealing a market that is very worried about the trajectory of risk assets and the US economy as a whole. When you look at Fed Fund futures pricing for 2019 (using FFF9/FFF0 spread as my guide), you have 1bps of cuts priced into futures, versus an FOMC dot plot that is projecting 50bps of hikes (past ’19 you will discover even more rate cuts are priced in). So there is quite a gap that will need to be reconciled. Will the equity market collapse help to slow an already fizzling economy or is there a possibility the economy recovers (China deal?) and the Fed continues on its course to normalize policy?

Using Prism’s PAM charting tool, we can see the constant maturity equivalent of EDH9/EDH0 has only gone negative 2x in the past 15 years. In 2006, it continued to flatten hard, but in 2011 it was a false breakdown and recovered higher...

Costanza’s “feat of strength” is taking the other side of the conventional wisdom that the housing, auto, and coming PMI slowdown due to the oil collapse either won’t alter Powell’s mission or will prove to be a head fake like in 2011. The slowdown in the data this year was likely caused by a front loading of activity pre-tariffs/trade wars (i.e. buy everything Q2 and then sit tight the rest of the year), so there is a chance that the higher economic trend reemerges, especially if the trade talks with China go well early next year (something Trump warned about this weekend). Costanza could be laughing at the thought he was able to buy ED spreads negative.

Instinct: the US economy has peaked, the fiscal impulse dissipates early next year, QT increases, and regional surveys are already showing a coming slowdown. This will lead to a Fed pause now and possible cuts by end of 2019.

Costanza: Powell is still indicating rate hikes and the economy is projected to grow 2.2% with CPI remaining around the 2% target. The kicker will come if Trump, feeling pressured by lower equity markets, makes a trade deal with China. The market will be caught wrong footed as the Fed continues to tighten as activity picks up again.

Estimated probability of Costanza being right: 55%. Will give a slightly higher nod towards Costanza being right. Remember, he doesn’t need hikes to win, just no cuts which is a plausible scenario if Trump delivers a market friendly trade deal with China.

4) Long Bunds

There is no possible way Bund yields could go any lower in the face of the ECB ending its asset purchase program, right?? Costanza is saying “easy big fella” (side note: can you name that episode?). There are plenty of indicators that the Eurozone is careening towards major economic issues. I want to give a nod to Danielle DiMartino Booth, who is doing excellent, non-consensus economic research over at Quill Intelligence. She points out that the chemicals sector is “arguably the most hyper-cyclical leading indicator,” and using BASF stock as her guide, suggests the Eurozone economy is “poised to hit the skids.” In fact, she declares Germany to be the “most underpriced recession risk in 2019.”

Interestingly, if you graph BASF stock in Germany (black line) versus Bund yields lagged 100 days (orange line), it would suggest potential financial crisis in the Eurozone which will lead to Bund yields going negative again...

Instinct: ECB, while still reinvesting, ended its APP, Draghi will want to get one hike off before his reign ends towards the end of 2019, the ECB desperately needs to get out of negative rates, Draghi will likely be replaced by someone more hawkish or at least less dovish, and fiscal stimulus to counter the populist movement will all lead to higher rates.

Costanza: growth has already fallen off sharply, forward indicators suggest potential economic crisis, the ECB is already noting risks shifting to the downside, and there are major political hurdles next year with EU elections

Estimated probability of Costanza being right: 60%. If there was ever a Costanza trade it is this one. I am not sure there are many Bund bulls out there at 24bps so this is ripe for Costanza to be right. The chart is saying he will nail this one.

German 10yr yields have formed a head and shoulder pattern that targets -40bps if the 15bps neckline gets taken out to the downside…

Quick side note…

Idea #3 (long Eurodollar steepeners) and #4 (long Bunds) are basically implying that the US/German yield spread will widen once again in 2019 (assuming the ED steepeners are akin to higher US rates which has been the correlation). I would surely say that even combined, that idea is a Costanza trade. Most expect a narrowing of the US/German 10yr spread going forward. Since I hit on the Bund side of the US/German 10yr spread, what could drive US rates unexpectedly higher in 2019 and thus help to widen the US/GE spread?

Increasing deficits leading to increasing supply

That increasing supply has already led to sloppy UST auctions

At a time the rate of change on foreign demand of UST has moved lower

With wages still remaining firm

All equal the need for higher term premium in the US

Now back to the list….

5) Short Gold

This has been an interesting correlation shift. For most of the year, Gold has been a pure Dollar play (especially vs CNH), but more recently Gold has picked up risk aversion, namely HY credit according to the Quant Insight macro PCA model.

Gold correlation to DXY (blue) and USD/CNH (green) has gone from negative to zero…

Now Gold is most correlated to VIX and HY credit…

Therefore, Costanza shorting Gold is another bet that risk assets will stabilize and the Gold bulls will be told “NO SOUP FOR YOU!”

Instinct: risk assets continue to trade poorly and Gold offers portfolio protection for the apocalypse.

Costanza: gold is losing its luster as a safe haven asset and, if the markets turn 2008-style ugly, it will get liquidated as well.

Estimated probability of Costanza being right: 51%. No strong conviction here but Costanza is right more than wrong so a slight edge to risk assets stabilizing and Gold returning to its Dollar correlation.

6) Long WTI

One of the most epic selloffs I have seen with a high-to-low collapse of 45% in just two months. The market narrative is now back to “elevated US production,” and more importantly, the Saudis, post-Khashoggi murder, have increased supply to push prices down for President Trump.

Costanza would be quick to point out that spare capacity is low and the oil market suffers from chronic underinvestment. That underinvestment only gets amplified with oil prices sub-$50, and we are already seeing Permian producers cut back on capex plans. Additionally, the widening in credit markets only makes it harder to obtain capital for capex. So you have the double whammy of lower prices and wider credit spreads, which will feed into the underinvestment theme. The days of capital inflows are back to 2008 levels.

By most analyst forecasts, even just a flat line of current production will cause a deficit in the supply/demand imbalance in 2019. We don’t need to be oil experts to know that when oil prices fall as precipitously as they did; rig counts fall and production declines. Now sprinkle in capex intentions being cut, along with credit issues, and that is Costanza’s recipe for higher oil prices. And, oh yeah, let’s not forget about the coming IMO 2020 regulations (sulfur emission reduction in cargo ships which will require heavy crude to be drawn from supplies to comply).

Instinct: US is oversupplying the market with its light crude, and the Saudis are more than making up for Iran sanctions to appease President Trump in light of the Khashoggi killing.

Costanza: low spare capacity will eventually catch up to the Saudis, and lower prices, lower capex, and a credit crunch will cause US production to flat line at a time when it needs to be increased (plus, the light API grade the US produces is not sought after).

Estimated probability of Costanza being right: 70%. I think much of the oil decline was technical fund liquidations (most likely large Risk Parity types that were long WTI as their inflation hedge), and all the forward looking supply issues not only remain, but are amplified with lower prices and wider credit. Costanza is usually right and I think this one is a layup. Oil prices will be higher than $45 come this time next year.

Use WTI time spreads as your signal when to get long. As we saw in the fall, time spreads (candles) led spot prices (green line) by about a week. Thus, if time spreads can break the downtrend, that will be your “tell” to get long WTI like Costanza…

7) Long Aussie$

A slowing Chinese economy and therefore slowing commodity demand, trade wars, and a decelerating domestic housing market have all led to a steady decline in the Oz in 2018.

Will keep this one short and sweet, as it is really the same idea as the other long risk asset trades. The AUD will really benefit from anything positive around the China/Trade War negotiations. Some sort of deal and the Aussie$ will scream higher. It’s that simple.

There is one micro issue Costanza should be concerned about and that is the Interest Only (IO) refi wave which will convert those IO mortgages into principle + interest loans. The reset wave started in 2018 and will increase in intensity in 2019. This will cause the average borrower to pay about $7,000 more per year in additional payments. That is a major hit to the housing market via delinquencies, and may be a crushing blow to consumers’ discretionary spending.

The one saving grace for Australia has been the RBA remaining on hold for (jokingly) 37,000 consecutive meetings. As the below chart shows, at this level of housing collapse, the RBA tends to cut.

Instinct: Australia has felt the effects of the China slowdown and trade wars, along with its own domestic issues. The currency will need to continue to depreciate to offset that pain.

Costanza: the equity market weakness will force Trump to play ball with the Chinese which will reverse the AUD higher. Additionally, the new economic weakness in the US and a Fed that could move to cut rates should weaken the USD.

Estimated probability of Costanza being right: 55%. Basically a better long than FANGs and credit, as being long AUD$ could also benefit if the Fed moves to an outright easing bias (which will depreciate the USD vs. the AUD). Apparently, long USD is now the most crowded trade in the market (according to a BAML survey). A housing crisis in Australia will be the major headwind for the Costanza long.

8) Short EM

This would be Costanza’s hedge against all the long risk asset bets above. So why is being short EM anti-consensus at a time risk assets are getting rinsed and everyone has turned bearish? Through conversations with street analysts and clients, there is, for whatever reason, an insatiable demand to buy the EM dip. After all, EM has been selling off since January so it should be the first to bounce, right? That thought is “making George angry” and why he is going to take the other side of that.

In a world where the China Manufacturing PMI just went into a contraction, European data is falling off a cliff, and US regional surveys are all pointing to a coming slowdown; is EM growth going to be booming and the place to allocate risk? I understand that it is a short dollar play, but 2019 could be marked by a major global growth slowdown and balance sheet recessions. That is not the ideal environment for EM.

The technicals say the selloff is not yet complete, as a bearish head and shoulder pattern has formed targeting an additional 6% lower…

Instinct: EM has already taken its pain, Trump/China deal likely in 2019.

Costanza: global growth slowdown will hurt EM the most, especially if USD funding issues reemerge. EM has never been a safe haven during growth scares and recessions.

Estimated probability of Costanza being right: 55%. All signs point to a poor global growth trajectory in 2019.

9) Long Bitcoin

That potential bottom has formed a bullish inverse head and shoulder pattern that sets up for a retest of the 1-year downtrend…

The selloff in bitcoin in 2018 was an once-in-a-lifetime move. From the highs just after New Year’s, Bitcoin spiraled 85% lower to take over as the largest historic bust since the Tulip crisis. The crypto naysayers had a field day this year.

Costanza would hypothesize that if you believe the US Dollar is losing its hegemony, the US government debt issue is ballooning to unsustainable levels, Europe is in the midst of a populist meltdown, and China is on the verge of a hard landing; why aren’t crypto currencies like Bitcoin as viable a store of value as a yellow rock?

Interestingly, Bitcoin has started to potentially bottom during the December equity meltdown, lending some credence to the theory that investors are becoming concerned with the global environment and searching for new stores of wealth.

That potential bottom has formed a bullish inverse head and shoulder pattern that sets up for a retest of the 1-year downtrend….

Instinct: crypto currencies have no use and are on their way to near worthlessness.

Costanza: Bitcoin is starting to rediscover its use as an alternative to traditional stores of value.

Estimated probability of Costanza being right: 50%. No clue and no edge here. However, it is hitting support levels, it has a bullish formation, and there is extreme bearish sentiment which all reek of a Costanza trade.

Bonus: Long Donald Trump

I cautiously put this in here hoping to avoid all political conversations and opinions, but I think this is an interesting nonmarket, yet market relevant idea.

I don’t think many expect much from POTUS next year, given the House swung to the Democrats and many folks (mostly on the liberal side, to be fair) believe there is looming tail risk that Mueller has enough evidence of some sort of wrongdoing that Trump’s presidency could be in jeopardy.

One could argue whether less Trump or no Trump is good or bad for risk assets. On the one hand, the more stable Pence could be welcomed by markets, and perhaps if Trump goes, trade war issues dissipate. On the other, the market rallied on his election victory in 2016, his policies are mostly reflationary, and China has become a legitimate nonpartisan issue. Therefore, even if Trump is ousted, trade wars likely continue unabated.

The surprise, non-consensus idea would be that Trump crosses the aisle to enact Infrastructure. Couple that with an earlier than expected China deal, and that is how Costanza will be paid out on a lot of his risk-on calls. Perhaps the market is underestimating Trump, and he ends up delivering a great deal vs. expectations of a lame duck presidency.

Summary:

As opposed to last year, this year’s Costanza trades (non-consensus calls) have a simple theme. Costanza is looking for a bounce in risk assets. What are the realistic paths to get there versus a market that expects more pain? At least one or more of these have to happen…

Cessation of tariffs/trade wars, which leads to a bounce in Chinese growth and a resumption of the positive growth momentum in the US

A Fed that ends the rate hike cycle and Balance Sheet reduction **coupled with growth remaining ok** (if growth softens further, equities could actually still sell off)

Rebound in the energy complex

US Infrastructure + EU fiscal stimulus + Chinese stimulus (all being discussed currently)

What are the glaring issues that will prove Costanza wrong for the first time in the history of this piece? To name a few…

US Fiscal Impulse dies out in early ’19 + global QT picks up in intensity

Government intervention in Silicon Valley

Passive unwind into a resumption of the explicit and implicit short vol unwind

The potential for a corporate credit blowup in the US and Europe

Housing busts in Australia, Canada, the US, and Asia

There is a lot of be worried about in 2019, and I believe we are only in the beginning stages of a risk asset purge. Costanza is much less worried.

I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year! I look forward to speaking with everyone again soon and telling you more about Prism’s exciting business model.

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jacobhinkley · 7 years ago

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TRON [TRX] juggles and settles down at number 9 – Sentimental Analysis – April 30

The market is recovering and turning green as top players in the crypto-world, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have increased. On the 30th of April at 08:32 UTC Bitcoin [BTC] was trading at the price of $9,477 with a market capitalization of $161 billion.

In the last 24 hours, the volume of Bitcoin transacted sums up to $8 billion. The Bitcoin market is depicting a sideways trend over a 7 day period. Ethereum [ETH], bagging the second position was trading at a price of $691.5 on the 30th of April at 08:24 UTC. Ethereum’s price in terms of Bitcoin is worth 0.073 Bitcoin at that point in time.

Cardano [ADA] and TRON [TRX] were the jugglers of the week. Both of them displayed a trend of jumping positions. Cardano, on the 30th of April, was trading at a price of $0.37 with a market capitalization of $9 billion. It secured the 6th position on the 28th of this month and in the last 24 hours, it has been staggering down to a circulating supply worth $718 million from $321 million.

The sentimental analysis section provides a clear perspective of the global cryptocurrency market. The analysis offers the press trends and market opinion. The viewpoints have been gathered from experts around the world. The estimations were taken into regard after interviewing with financial specialists, miners, analysts, skeptics, influencers, and their valuable remarks have been recorded for this segment.

This analysis is directed on TRON [TRX] which is presently spotted at number 9.

TRON [TRX]

On the 28th of April, TRON was juggling positions between the 9th and 10th positions. TRX’s current market capitalization is worth $6 billion and is trading at a price of $0.094 which is a 10% hike this week. From the past one week, TRON has been performing brilliantly and is leading the CoinMarketCap charts by a 75% increase in its price.

In the last 24 hours, the TRX market has been green with a 10.9 % hike in its prices. Being persistent enough, TRX value has increased by 0.62 % in the last one hour period. The juggler coin has finally come to a stable position by securing itself at number 9 without dropping further.

The Bollinger band is performing a slanting movement from the past 2 days and reached towards the $0.095 price. The MACD and the Stochastic RSI are showcasing a bullish trend in the 4-hour graph chart. At press time, $0.095 is the highest of the month.

Dhruv Mishra. a crypto-analyst from Hyderabad says:

“The MACD is approving of the fact that TRX is unbeatable and is moving towards a bullish trend. It might reach a $0.1 in the next few days. The Bollinger graph is showing a clear-cut bulge which will indicate a rise in prices for sure. Again it depends on the users HODLing the coin.”

Heidi Treyson, a crypto-manic from Colorado says:

“Justin Sun is leading TRON in the right direction. It amazes me that the currency reached top 10 in a week. The bullish trend is observable in TRX in the market with slight impacts on the price fluctuation which is normal as compared to other cryptocurrencies”

Jensen, a crypto-miner says:

“There are certain possibilities for the market to even drop down drastically. Since the market has been showing a bullish trend and the month of May is going to start, whales or other individuals might even take the money out. As if people believe in HODLing nowadays or do they?”

In conclusion, 41% of the TRON [TRX] critics believe that the coin might fall with a bearish upcoming trend, but there is a high possibility for the coin to remain stable at its 9th position. A major 59% are bullish highlighting the fact that TRX has reached its all month high $ 0.095

The post TRON [TRX] juggles and settles down at number 9 – Sentimental Analysis – April 30 appeared first on AMBCrypto.

TRON [TRX] juggles and settles down at number 9 – Sentimental Analysis – April 30 published first on https://medium.com/@smartoptions

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brettzjacksonblog · 5 years ago

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Ripple (XRP) Is Primed To Correct Higher Despite Recent Sell-off

Ripple remained in a major downtrend from well above the $0.2650 level against the US Dollar. XRP price tested the $0.2240 support area and it could correct higher in the short term. Ripple price is down close to 6% and it broke the $0.2350 support area against the US dollar. The price tested the $0.2240 support area and it is currently consolidating losses. There is a contracting triangle forming with resistance near $0.2300 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price must climb above the $0.2300 level to start a recovery towards the $0.2450 level. Ripple Price Could Correct Higher Recently, we saw a strong decline in ripple from well above the $0.2650 level. XRP price broke many supports near $0.2500 and $0.2450 levels to enter a short term downtrend. Moreover, there was a break below the $0.2350 support level and the price settled well below the 100 hourly simple moving average. The decline was such that the price traded below the $0.2280 level. Finally, it found support near the $0.2240 level and it is currently consolidating losses. A weekly low is formed near $0.2232 and the price is testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent slide from the $0.2452 high to $0.2232 low. More importantly, there is a contracting triangle forming with resistance near $0.2300 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. Therefore, a clear break above the triangle resistance could open the doors for a decent recovery in ripple towards the $0.2400 and $0.2450 levels. Ripple Price An intermediate resistance is near the $0.2365 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent slide from the $0.2452 high to $0.2232 low. Finally, ripple price must climb above the $0.2450 and $0.2500 resistance levels to start a fresh increase in the coming days. More Losses? If ripple fails to correct above the $0.2300 and $0.2365 resistance levels, it could continue to move down. The first key support on the downside is near the $0.2240 level. If there is a clear break below $0.2240 and $0.2232, the price could move down towards the $0.2200 level. Any further losses is likely to lead the price towards the $0.2050 level in the near term. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is still showing many bearish signs. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is currently well below the 40 level, with bearish angle. Major Support Levels – $0.2240, $0.2200 and $0.2050. Major Resistance Levels – $0.2300, $0.2365 and $0.2450. from CryptoCracken SMFeed https://ift.tt/2wIQsn1 via IFTTT

#IFTTT #CryptoCracken SMFeed

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michaelbennettcrypto · 5 years ago

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Ripple (XRP) Is Primed To Correct Higher Despite Recent Sell-off

#IFTTT #Cryptocracken WP

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allenmendezsr · 5 years ago

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dragonflycap · 5 years ago

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5 Trade Ideas for Monday: Fastenal, Flowserve, Garmin, Jazz Pharma and Zoetis

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Fastenal, Ticker: $FAST

Fastenal, $FAST, gapped higher in October and then went into a 3½ month consolidation. Now it is approaching support with the RSI falling to the bearish zone with the MACD dropping and negative. Look for a push under support to participate…..

Flowserve, Ticker: $FLS

Flowserve, $FLS, bounced off of a bottom in August, stalling on a gap fill in September. It turned lower again but found support at a higher low and reversed. After making a higher high in early November it has consolidated. The RSI is falling into the bearish zone with the MACD falling and negative. Look for a break of support to participate…..

Garmin, Ticker: $GRMN

Garmin, $GRMN, started higher in August, and after a gap up in October fell into consolidation. It made an attempt to push higher last month but fell back and is nearing support. The RSI is falling through the mid line with the MACD crossed down and dropping. Look for a break of support to participate…..

Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Ticker: $JAZZ

Jazz Pharmaceuticals, $JAZZ, started higher off of a low in October. It continued to a peak in November and then settled into consolidation. The price is testing the bottom of consolidation with the RSI falling to the bearish zone and the MACD dropping and negative. Look for a break of support to participate…..

Zoetis, Ticker: $ZTS

Zoetis, $ZTS, started moving higher again in November and reached a top last month. It pulled back and bounced then started a second step down at the end of last week. The RSI is falling toward the bearish zone with the MACD crossed down and falling. Look for continuation under support to participate…..

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with the first month of the year in the books, saw equity markets had finally stalled and started to retrace after a long strong run in the 4th Quarter and into January.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue to move higher while Crude Oil tests the lower end of a broad consolidation channel. The US Dollar Index looks better to the downside while US Treasuries head towards the all-time highs. The Shanghai Composite looks to re-open with a bias lower compounded by a week of pent up news while Emerging Markets continue a short term downtrend.

The Volatility Index looks to remain elevated making the path easier for equity markets to the downside. Their charts also look weak on the shorter timeframe with the IWM the ugliest and the SPY now at possible support. Only the QQQ remains near the 20 day SMA. The longer timeframe looks much less concerning for the QQQ and SPY. The IWM is weaker but at support on this timeframe. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

#$FAST #$FLS #$GRMN #$JAZZ #$ZTS

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cryptoveins · 5 years ago

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Ripple (XRP) Is Primed To Correct Higher Despite Recent Sell-off

Ripple remained in a major downtrend from well above the $0.2650 level against the US Dollar. XRP price tested the $0.2240 support area and it could correct higher in the short term.

Ripple price is down close to 6% and it broke the $0.2350 support area against the US dollar. The price tested the $0.2240 support area and it is currently consolidating losses. There is a contracting triangle forming with resistance near $0.2300 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price must climb above the $0.2300 level to start a recovery towards the $0.2450 level.

Ripple Price Could Correct Higher Recently, we saw a strong decline in ripple from well above the $0.2650 level. XRP price broke many supports near $0.2500 and $0.2450 levels to enter a short term downtrend. Moreover, there was a break below the $0.2350 support level and the price settled well below the 100 hourly simple moving average. The decline was such that the price traded below the $0.2280 level. Finally, it found support near the $0.2240 level and it is currently consolidating losses. A weekly low is formed near $0.2232 and the price is testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent slide from the $0.2452 high to $0.2232 low. More importantly, there is a contracting triangle forming with resistance near $0.2300 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. Therefore, a clear break above the triangle resistance could open the doors for a decent recovery in ripple towards the $0.2400 and $0.2450 levels. Ripple Price An intermediate resistance is near the $0.2365 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent slide from the $0.2452 high to $0.2232 low. Finally, ripple price must climb above the $0.2450 and $0.2500 resistance levels to start a fresh increase in the coming days. More Losses? If ripple fails to correct above the $0.2300 and $0.2365 resistance levels, it could continue to move down. The first key support on the downside is near the $0.2240 level. If there is a clear break below $0.2240 and $0.2232, the price could move down towards the $0.2200 level. Any further losses is likely to lead the price towards the $0.2050 level in the near term. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is still showing many bearish signs. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is currently well below the 40 level, with bearish angle. Major Support Levels – $0.2240, $0.2200 and $0.2050. Major Resistance Levels – $0.2300, $0.2365 and $0.2450. Ripple (XRP) Is Primed To Correct Higher Despite Recent Sell-off was last modified: February 27th, 2020 by Aayush Jindal

https://cryptoveins.com/ripple-xrp-is-primed-to-correct-higher-despite-recent-sell-off/

#Analysis #Article #chart #XRP

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inexcon · 6 years ago

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RSI Comm-Link: Portfolio: Casse Aerospace

This portfolio originally appeared in Jump Point 5.3.

While Casse Aerospace bears the name of an engineering legend, the company itself has faded from memory for all but the most dedicated ship enthusiasts. Or at least that was the case for over a century until Anvil Aerospace resurrected one of Casse’s designs and alongside it, interest in the man himself and the ships he built.

An Edleson Design Institute Hall of Fame inductee in 2902, Leonard Casse has earned a place in the annals of history as one of the top spacecraft visionaries of the Messer Era. While the general populace may wind up considering his creation of the Hurricane fighter the most enduring part of his legacy, his effect on the industry overall is not limited to that one design. Cited by ship design luminaries such as J. Harris Arnold, Silas Koerner, and Jules Parliegh as a prime source of inspiration, Casse’s influence can be seen in many spacecraft being flown today. From the humble RSI Aurora to the mighty Anvil Hornet, several of the Empire’s most popular vehicles can trace their lineage to Casse’s unique vision.

Taking Off

Hired fresh out of university, Casse began his career as a junior aerospace engineer for RSI in 2587, securing himself a position on the Starbright transport team. This simple and functional ship, often referred to as the Aurora’s spiritual predecessor, had been redesigned for the 2590 model year release and was about to go into full production. Assigned to review the machining specs for the ventral hull piece before the manufacturing run began, Casse noticed that the updated nozzle placement, while adding fuel efficiency, was going to cause potentially dangerous additional stresses to the ship’s frame. He promptly reported his findings to the Starbright’s lead designer, only to be told that the effect was negligible and that he should trust the more experienced members of the team.

Unsatisfied with that result, Casse took his report directly to the head of the company, CEO Thessaly Vanowen. Impressed with the young engineer, Vanowen ordered a separate independent team to audit the Starbright’s testing results. Two weeks later, the project was completely halted for a total rework of the internal struts. The 2590 Starbright would now be released as the 2591, with Casse promoted to a full engineer on the team.

His rise after that was rapid. In 2595 Casse was named lead designer for the 2600 Starbright. RSI saw the new century as the perfect time to relaunch the Starbright and was hoping that Casse would be the ideal candidate to revitalize the aging ship line. He did not disappoint. Rebuilt from the ground up, the 2600 Starbright was praised for its innovative entry system and all-new custom IFCS that integrated flawlessly with the ship’s thrusters for unmatched responsiveness. What was previously thought of as “just another transport” became elevated to “a flying experience that everyone should have the pleasure of enjoying.” Even today, centuries later, collectors still covet the 2600 Starbright for their personal fleets. Perhaps what makes it so valued though, even beyond its quality, is that it would be the only ship Casse designed for RSI.

A New Way to Fly

As soon as the assembly line began rolling out the ship he had labored on for close to four years, Casse announced at the beginning of 2599 that he would be leaving to start his own company. According to later biographers, Casse described his time at RSI as a constant struggle. From that first instance when his suggestions were passed over due to his junior status, he felt that good design was too often sacrificed in order to placate a hierarchical organization trying to justify its own worth. “As soon as you have a ship manufacturing company where almost half the people who work there have nothing to do with manufacturing ships, you’re going to have problems,” he would state in a later interview. He swore that the company he was building, Casse Aerospace, would be different. He would only hire a small team of people whom he could trust to do quality work at the standards he demanded, and then he would leave them to do it. Everyone’s opinion would have equal weight, with all final decisions left to himself. It was unorthodox for ship manufacturing, but under the strong vision and guidance of Casse, the flat organization style worked.

It was 2604 when Casse Aerospace released its first ship, the limited-run Cosmo Sloop. A leisure craft with a focus on ease of use, the hull premiered the open circle signet and curved wings that Casse would use on all his future designs. The reviews of this cutting-edge craft were universally positive, but unfortunately the timing of the ship’s release would prove to be its undoing.

The Second Tevarin War had begun the year prior and with enemy forces pushing their way through Humanity’s defenses, the personal leisure craft market bottomed out. With all their fortunes riding on sales of the Cosmo, Casse Aerospace found themselves struggling to keep their fledgling company afloat and decided that the best course of action was to join the war effort.

Calm Before the Storm

The Tevarin fleet had undergone significant tech upgrades during their exodus, and the UEE Naval forces were having a difficult time overcoming the new phalanx shields. In 2605, Navy officials called upon the Empire’s ship manufacturers for a solution. Though he had never worked on a combat ship before, Casse knew that the credits such a lucrative contract would bring could save his company, and so he set about designing the solution to Humanity’s current problems.

Analyzing battle footage of Naval forces engaging the Tevarin led Casse to the conclusion that trying to overwhelm the Phalanx shields was a losing proposition. The bulk of damage that the Navy was able to inflict occurred when a Tevarin was caught off guard. The goal of his design would be to increase the frequency with which those opportunities would occur and maximize the damage inflicted during them. To help his ship achieve this goal, he borrowed a page from the enemy’s playbook. If the Tevarin were operating in teams of two, one pilot and one shield operator, his ship could also be manned by a team, a pilot and a turret gunner. The design he submitted to the Navy stood in sharp contrast to those submitted by industry leaders like Aegis, and it surprised many when the Navy granted a contract to the unusual contender. Casse Aerospace immediately began work on what would become the Hurricane.

Launched late in 2607, the Casse Hurricane suffered some setbacks during the testing phase. Though pilots liked the power-to-weight ratio and the extra punch its quad-turret offered, the high degree of coordination needed between the pilot and gunner had a very steep learning curve. Because of this, the Hurricane didn’t enter active combat until 2609. While they were used to devastating effect in a few instrumental actions, the war ended shortly after their deployment in 2610.

Trying to capitalize on the success of the Hurricane, Casse Aerospace used the goodwill they had garnered to win a contract designing a long-range patrol ship suited to guard the growing Xi’an front. However, before that ship could be finished, Leonard Casse tragically passed away in 2615 after being involved in a deadly in-atmosphere collision. Reeling from the loss of their founder and leader, Casse Aerospace attempted to finish the project, but without Casse’s personal involvement, military officials lost confidence and pulled the plug.

Surviving off continuing Hurricane sales, Casse Aerospace attempted to return to their roots and release an updated Cosmo but again, without Casse behind the project, it was not a commercial success. Things were looking dire for the company, and when the Navy announced the Hurricane would be retired from active duty, it signaled the end. The market was soon flush with surplus Hurricanes and any remaining new sales dried up. With little options remaining, the board sold the company to an investment firm. From there it passed hands several times before falling into receivership and becoming nothing more than a footnote of history for the next century.

The Next Generation

When J. Harris Arnold was in school, he was obsessed with the works of Leonard Casse. To him, the mostly forgotten engineer represented everything he loved about ship design. When he eventually started his own ship manufacturing company, Arnold drew heavy inspiration from Casse’s business model and ships for his own designs, utilizing such signature elements as the curved wings and open circle signet. The similarities were such that Arnold and his fledgling company, Anvil Aerospace, was sued by the holding firm who had bought the rights to Casse’s designs. Arnold decided to settle the case by purchasing all of Casse Aerospace’s portfolio himself. Now the owner of Casse’s legacy, Arnold sought an opportunity to put the company’s original designs to use, but one didn’t present itself for close to seventy years.

The UEE was suffering as Vanduul attacks in Caliban grew in frequency in a manner similar to the ones that led to the fall of Virgil and Tiber. Eager to turn their efforts around, the Navy brass were looking for a new ship that would enable their pilots to cut engagement times down. Their theory was that the faster a Vanduul fighter could be taken out, the less opportunity it would have to cause Human casualties. Anvil provided the solution in the form of a resurrected Hurricane. The updated design still bore all the hallmarks of Casse’s original, but with the addition of Anvil’s proven conflict expertise. The result was a game changer for the war effort, and in 2878 a new generation of Navy pilots began to use the Hurricane to devastating effect.

Today, Casse and the company he built have finally taken their proper place in history books, thanks to the efforts of Arnold and others who sought to keep their memory alive. While he may have only designed three ships in his lifetime, Leonard Casse’s contributions extend well beyond what he left behind in the shipyard, as he has inspired countless numbers to see the universe a little bit differently. The plaque honoring him in the Edleson Design Institute Hall of Fame cites a fitting Casse quotation, “Good design solves a problem, bad design creates new ones.”

http://bit.ly/2UoDTZf

#RSI.CommLink.Repost

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starcitizenprivateer · 6 years ago

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Portfolio: Casse Aerospace

This portfolio originally appeared in Jump Point 5.3.

Taking Off

A New Way to Fly

Calm Before the Storm

The Next Generation

#star citizen #squadron 42

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