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#the ramifications of all these events just keep compounding on them and it makes me insane
pippastrelle · 4 months
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Ashton 'betrayed' the group and they died. Laudna 'betrayed' the group and she hurt one of them.
See, that's the more forgivable crime.
Because the Bell's Hells consider themselves expendable, but they will not be left behind.
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blossomingimagines · 4 years
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Requiem
Natasha Romanoff x Fem!Stark!Reader
Word Count: 5,572
Summary:
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Notes: I changed a bit about Civil War-- like the Reader lives in the Tower instead of the Compound. I also changed a bit about how everything went down-- it’s been a while since I’ve seen Civil War. So please don’t be too mad about those changes. 
Warnings: Angst.
Dialogue Prompts: “You’re making me think that what they told me about you was right.” // “I don’t know who you are anymore.”
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The soothing melody of music swarmed around you. The smooth ivory keys of the piano were cool against your fingertips. A stark contrast to the whiskey burning its way down your throat every time you paused. The calming melody being replaced by the clinking of ice against the glass; something that reminded you of your father. A comparison that brought an even darker cloud over your head. 
Like father, like daughter, your mind purrs. 
Clenching your teeth, you slam your glass against the smooth surface of the piano. An acidic feeling working its way up until you were able to force it back down. The action causes tears to form in your eyes and pain to flare through your chest. Images of memories long suppressed flashing through your mind as you stood. Your gait stumbled ever-so-slightly as you made your way towards the large couch in the center of the room. 
You wished for nothing more than to have the memories stop. To have the past twenty-four hours erased from your mind. To go back to a time when your team, your family, was still whole; severely damaged but whole. Where you didn’t know that the people you trusted had kept something so crucial from you. From Tony. Back to a time where the image of your older brother’s haunted face wasn’t seared into your brain-- where his bright brown eyes weren’t dimmed to a hollow black. 
Back to a time when your heart was whole. Where you didn’t second guess everything that had happened for the past six years of your life.
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The Day Prior…. 
A smile pulls at your lips as you hum a soft tune against the oppressive silence of the Tower. Wanting to fill a normally joyous environment with its usual cheer. Anything to offset the darkness that had been consuming all the light that had finally worked its way into your life. 
The inviting aroma of the pasta sauce wafts through your nose. A warm feeling blossoming in your chest at the memories, and the feelings, it invokes within you. It was a recipe that your dear Brucey had imparted onto you after another failed attempt by your brother to make dinner. It seemed that for all his brains, Tony couldn’t figure out how to work a stove even if his life depended on it. 
Even though he could probably make one in his sleep. 
You held hope that your brother would be returning today. You knew how much the Accords, and the subsequent battles, were affecting him. His already fucked up sleeping schedule became almost nonexistent. Not to mention his new diet consisting solely of leftover pizza and coffee. Hopefully a nice home cooked meal would do him some good. You also held hope that your long term girlfriend, Natasha, would be joining your brother on his return. You didn’t truly know everything that was going on with the so-called ‘Civil War’ but you were beyond glad that Natasha wasn’t on the opposite side of it. You didn’t know what you would do if you lost her too. 
You still couldn’t comprehend that Steve, your Capsicle, was no longer part of the Avengers-- at least the version that the public would rally behind. Couldn’t believe that Clint had so easily followed behind him without a second glance back. That Wanda, despite all of her misgivings about your last name, would leave you too. You knew that the Accords were demanding many things from the heroes, although you didn't know the extent of everything, you didn’t see the reason for the battles that had risen because of them. Not when amendments and other legalities could still surface in the wake of such a document coming into fruition. 
You understood, in part, how Steve must feel having such restrictions appear. Flashing him back to a time that you had only read in history books and heard from the drunken ramblings of your father. Where if the rules weren’t followed there would be dire consequences. You also understood that Steve wanted to protect his friend from such restrictions-- you just couldn’t understand how a man that followed various rules like they were God’s words themselves could be so flippant about something so important. Could be so callous to the wishes of millions of people and their representatives. It wasn’t the forties anymore, Steve had to come to terms with that. The world wasn’t what it used to be.
At the first sign of Steve’s rejection to the Accords, you had hoped that Tony would be able to talk him into it. Would be able to stop the conflict before it even had the chance to rise. All that hope had flown out the window after the airport. After Rhodey, your beloved wombat, had gotten crippled you knew that nothing would ever be the same again. That nothing could fix the wound that had been inflicted on Tony’s already battered heart because of it. 
An event that only became that much worse because you had only been able to catch glimpses of Natasha. Seeing her briefly in the hallway of the hospital with a dark look painted on her face. You had tried to approach her but she had vanished before you even got half-way. The next, and last, time you had seen her she was speaking with Tony. An exchange that didn’t look to be on the friendliest of terms. Yet another fact that you couldn’t comprehend. As their relationship, although starting off rough, blossomed after you began dating. An understanding growing between them that you were the glue that held them together. Friendship growing from that shared bond like flowers blossoming amongst the weeds at last. Witnessing such an exchange had shocked you but you still held hope that it was simply the ramifications of the battle-- having Steve and the rest of the rogues escape must have stung. Not to mention Rhodey’s injuries pouring salt into an already gaping wound. 
Your hope was the only thing getting you through. 
The smell of burning tomatoes fills your nose causing you to blanche. Your brow furrowing in surprise at the unexpected smell before, with muttered curses, you realize what you had done. As quickly as you were able to, you turned the burner off and brought the pot to the sink-- wherein you dumped it unceremoniously. A petulant frown making its way across your face at the sight. 
Shaking your head, you grab a hand towel and make your way around the kitchen. You knew that Tony wasn’t the pickiest of eaters but you had wanted to make his homecoming meal special. Naked pasta didn’t really get that feeling across. At least I tried. 
“I guess Tony isn’t the only one who’s been frazzled by all of this,” you mutter as you toss the towel onto the counter. 
“You’re still using words like frazzled, Y/N?”
The unexpected response causes you to jump in surprise. Your heart leaping in your throat as you saw the shadowed figure of your brother standing in the precipice of the room. A grin pulling at your lips at the sight. 
“Yes, Anthony, I do,” you reply. “At least when I believe that you’re not around.” 
“I’m hurt, Y/N/N,” Tony cries with faux hurt in his tone. His hands coming to grasp his chest with an exaggerated air. At the movement, however, you notice how stiff his movements were. Your eyes narrow as you take in his entire figure again. Noticing the slouched posture and the almost defeated air that surrounded him. 
Taking a worried step forward, you couldn’t stop the fear that interlaced itself within your tone. “Tony, what happened?”
“I lost.” 
If it was possible you could feel even more fear work its way through your body. Tony never admitted defeat, not since your father was alive, he felt like it was a sign of weakness. While it could get annoying at times you know that Tony didn’t mean anything malicious by it. Hearing the words fall from his lips without a hint of resistance? 
It filled you with a sense of dread you hadn’t felt since the day you learned about your parents. 
And when Tony finally stepped from the shadows?
It brought you back to the moment that he had told you. His body caving in on itself as he tried to hide from the world. His bright, intelligent, brown eyes turning black with the various emotions that ran through his mind. His smiling, jovial, face turning serious and grim. A contrast that you don’t think you would ever be able to stomach. You knew that Tony could be serious, when he wanted to be, but seeing him so broken? Empty? That was something you don’t think you could ever witness without feeling your own heart break because of it. 
All of that combined with the bruises? You could already feel the oncoming panic before it even began. 
Rushing towards your brother, you gently take his face into your hands-- noticing his slight flinch as you did so. Pressing your lips into a thin line, you gently stroke your thumb across his cheekbone. 
“What the hell happened, Tony?” 
Your question causes Tony to pause. As if he didn’t know what to tell you-- or how much to tell you. At the expression, your grip tightens ever-so-slightly.
“Don’t beat around the bush, Tony. Tell me what the hell happened.” You pause as an unsettled feeling wells within you. “Did Steve do this to you?” 
“Y/N/N,” Tony sighs with a soft look appearing on his face. His eyes trying to desperately tell you what he couldn’t voice. What he didn’t want to voice. Without thinking you take a staggered step away from him. Your hand flying to your mouth as you try to keep your tears at bay. Not believing that man you trusted would be able to do something like this. 
“Ho-” You clear your throat as the words get stuck. “How did this happen, Tony? Where was Natasha in all of this? How could she have let this happen? How could your team let this happen?”
“It wasn’t supposed to escalate,” he murmurs as he takes your hands into his. His eyes imploring you to understand. “I went to talk to Rogers and Barnes. I wanted to stop the incessant battles and finally come back together as a team. As a family.”
You take one of his bruised hands in yours. “You’re not a violent man, Tony. Not more than any of the others.” You shake your head. “Something must have happened for it to escalate to such a degree. Especially if you went there to just talk.”
Tony stiffens. “I don’t think you want to continue this conversation, Y/N.”
“Yes, I do. I want to know how a man that praises himself on his honor could attack you in such a way. I want to know what caused you to fight in the first place.” You squeeze Tony’s hand. “I’m not a little girl anymore, Tones. You don’t have to protect me from everything. I’m dating a former KGB agent after all.” 
Tony winces at the reminder but you try not to read too much into it. His eyes shifting downwards as he gripped your hand in his. “They didn’t attack me, Y/N/N.” He pauses as he forces himself to continue. To tell you the awful truth of what happened. “I attacked them.”
“What?” You ask with a horrified expression. “Why would you do that?” 
He seems to shrink even more because of your tone. “I learned some things. Things that I should have known from the beginning.” His head lowers once more as his voice drops to a whisper. “Things you should have known from the beginning.” 
You shake your head as you try to understand. “What could have been so bad that it caused you to attack one of your greatest friends? To do so when you went with the simple understanding of a truce?” 
There was a moment of silence.
“I think we need to sit down for this, Y/N.” 
Before you could react, Tony was pulling you out of the kitchen and towards the sitting area of the Tower-- the dinner you had made completely forgotten on the island. 
You didn’t think you had much of an appetite anyways.
Tugging at your hand, Tony settles on the couch with you at his side. His expressive brown eyes staring into yours as he mulled over his next words. 
When the silence became too much, you couldn’t stop the desperate plea that fell from your lips. “Just tell me, Tony. Please.” 
He nods, his body straightening and his shoulders stiffening. He looked like a man prepared for battle that didn’t let anything in this world get to him. If it wasn’t for the pained expression on his face you would believe that to be so.
“As you know I went to Siberia to meet with Rogers and Barnes. I wanted to wipe the slate clean between us. To bring both sides back together again. We need to be united if we have any chance of protecting Earth.” Sighing, Tony shakes his head as if to redirect himself. “During the conversation a video began playing.”
“A video?” You question with a small frown furrowing your brow. 
“Yes,” Tony murmurs. “A video that was created on December 16, 1991.” 
All color drained from your face at the revelation. An almost static buzzing taking over your surroundings as you tried to comprehend what Tony told you. Your eyes watering at the knowledge of what must have been on that video. You didn’t have to hear the rest to know that much. Didn’t have to look farther than Tony’s haunted expression. Or the simple fact of the date you hated more than anything becoming a reality once more. Yet another nightmare working its way into your reality. You just foolishly believed you had finally gotten past this one already. 
Closing your eyes, you try to stem the oncoming flow of tears. Your voice coming out strained because of your efforts. “Did he know?”
There was another moment of silence. 
“Yes.”
This time you knew your heart had broken-- possibly is much easier to handle than actually. You didn’t want to believe that Steve had kept something from you for so long. Something that he had no right keeping from either you or Tony. Even if it was to protect his friend. You had the right to know what happened to your parents. 
At the soft touch to your cheek, you open your eyes to meet Tony’s pained gaze. You knew that Tony had never been close to your father, you hadn’t either, but you knew that Tony never wanted anything bad to happen to him. Much less have anything happen to your mother. Knowing that an accident hadn’t been the cause. Knowing that someone you trusted abetted their murderer. Someone you knew had been connected with each one of Tony’s old teammates in one way or another. 
It was a thought that caused your heart to break even more. 
“Please tell me it’s not true,” you beg with tears streaming down your cheeks. By the look in Tony’s eyes you knew he understood what you were asking. What you were begging him to not be true. “Please tell me that she didn’t know.” You lower your head as a sob erupts from your mouth. “Please tell me that I didn’t just lose her too.”
Tony wrapping his arms around you was all the answer you needed. Keens falling from your lips as your new reality finally sunk in. Clinging to your brother in the dark with sobs punctuating the silence. Filling the usually joyous space with pain and grief. The darkness finally took over the light. 
With your heart irreparably shattered.
And your hope forever crushed. 
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You had lost track of how long you had stayed in Tony’s arms. Your tears coming and going like tidal waves. The arrival of Pepper hadn’t surprised you in the slightest. You knew that your brother and her had a lot to work through, but you no one could deny the love they held for one another. Nor could you refute the loyalty that Pepper showed to the Stark family. So you weren’t surprised when Tony’s well muscled arms were replaced by slim ones. When his masculine scent was replaced by soothing floral. 
You had simply burrowed further into Pepper’s arms and allowed yourself to grieve. Allowed the pain to flow from you like a constant stream. A never ending river that you didn’t know if you could save yourself from drowning in. 
However, the refuge you found within Pepper’s embrace was short lived. You knew that you were being selfish by keeping her all to yourself. That you were ignoring Tony’s pain for the sake of your own. A thought that causes your stomach to turn even more. You knew that you had to be by yourself, at least for a little while, so Tony could have his own haven. So Tony could begin to grieve too. 
With great effort you had pulled yourself from Pepper’s warmth and gestured towards the silent figure of your brother. You didn’t have to speak to get the message across of where you wanted Pepper to be. You simply stood, fighting back the need to collapse, and began making your way towards the elevator. You knew that the type of comfort Pepper would provide Tony would be quite different from the type she gave you. 
Even as you stepped into the elevator and the doors began closing, you could hear the soft murmurs of their voices. The loving lilt you could discern even from the distance you were at. It filled you with a numbing sense of warmth. You had never been more happy for someone being in your life than at that moment. You didn’t want to imagine what would have happened to Tony if he didn’t have Pepper. 
Just like you didn’t want to imagine your life without Natasha. 
Even though you knew you had to. 
It is the reality that you were living in. A nightmare that had finally caught up with you after so long. 
As real as the pain in your chest. 
As real as the pounding of your skull. 
And as real as the glass of whiskey you were going to have to numb it all. 
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Present…. 
At the memories, you bury your head into your hands. Trying to stop your heart from breaking even more. There was only so much you could take before you finally lost it. Stifling a groan, you settle back onto the couch and stare at the half empty whiskey decanter situated on the glass table. Wondering if your head, and throat, could take any more of the punishment the amber liquid provided. Your fingers twitching at your sides to pour yourself another glass but you refrained. 
You were not about to drown all of your problems with alcohol-- even if you wanted nothing more than to do so. 
Letting loose a low groan, you flop your head back against the couch. Your eyes screwing shut as you tried to ignore the growing feeling of numbness that was settling over you. A numbness that was tinged with fire. A feeling that you were beyond scared to feel once more. You hadn’t felt this type of emotion since you had first heard that your parents were dead. Hadn’t felt this growing feeling of anger being off-set by the hollowness of grief in such a long time. You had no idea what to do.
All you did know was that you wanted it to stop. 
You wanted it all to stop-- at least for a moment. 
Of course, you wouldn’t be a Stark if anything ever went your way. The sound of approaching footsteps rectified that fact. You automatically recognized the graceful gait. A gait that you would only hear if its owner wished you to.
You didn’t know how you felt about that. 
Without opening your eyes, you speak. “What do you want Natasha?”
At your words the footsteps disappear, but you knew that she hadn’t stopped moving. Not when you felt a familiar presence settle itself in front of you. Her warmth radiating off of her like a furnace. Something that you would normally relish in. Now it only made you want to get away as fast as you were able. 
“Can you open your eyes and look at me, Y/N?” 
You almost refused to acknowledge her soft request. Almost turned away from her completely but you couldn’t. Not when she still controlled your heart the way she did. So, with a soft sigh, you open your eyes and are surprised by what you see. Natasha’s green eyes staring at you with tears shimmering within their depths. Her normally luminescent skin a chalky white that caused the dark circles under her eyes to stand out. Her red hair is thrown into a messy bun on the top of her head. It was a sight that caused your heart to lurch-- even if you cursed yourself because of it. Natasha looked tortured. The pain written across her face, her completely open face, a clear indicator. 
Pressing your lips into a thin line, you try to figure out what to do. You knew that Natasha still held the reins to your heart. That she more than likely always would. But this betrayal, this deceit, wasn’t something you could just look over. Not like you had done with the whole Natalie Rushman debacle. There were only so many lies you could bear before everything came tumbling down. 
“Why are you here?” You finally settle on after another beat of silence. Your question rings out across the expanse of space between you. Your gaze never wavering from her emerald green. 
Natasha frowns. “Why do you think I’m here? I’m here to make things right between us.”
You scoff, feeling your anger begin to scorch through your body. “Make things right? Make things right?” You stand as the last part of your statement turns shrill. Your eyes blazing with indignation as you stared down at her. “How the hell do you think you can make things right? After what you did? After what you kept from me?”
Following your lead, Natasha stands and tries to move towards you. An action that you quickly move away from as you move back over towards the piano. At your clear dismissal, Natasha wrings her hands together. An almost panicked look beginning to work its way across her face. “I know, Y/N, I know what I did was wrong, I do, but I thought what I was doing was right. I thought I was protecting my family,” Natasha pleads. “I didn’t think it would escalate like this.”
A sardonic laugh falls from your lips. “Didn’t think?” You shake your head, another laugh erupting from your mouth. “You didn’t think that it would escalate like it has? How else would it have fucking happened? You thought that everything would be all hunky-dory after what you did? Really? You know better than that Natasha. I know you do.” 
“I’m sorry, Y/N,” Natasha cries. “I know that I fucked up but I didn’t think Steve would react like this. I didn’t think so many people would have gotten hurt in the process. If I had known I would have never let them go.” 
Silence. 
Complete and total silence falls over the room at her admission. The same buzzing feeling making its way through your ears as you stare at her. Your brain working overtime to comprehend what Natasha had just admitted to you. 
Taking a step back, you stare at her with an appalled expression. “What?” 
Natasha, seemingly not understanding your confusion, takes a small step towards you. A frown marring her beautiful face. “I didn’t think letting them go would result in all of this.” She runs a hand through her hair-- destroying the bun she had kept it in. “I didn’t think it would destroy you like this. That it would hurt you the way it has. I’m so sorry, lyubov moya.” 
“You let them go?” You ask, needing confirmation. Needing to hear her say it again. “You let them go?”
Lowering her head, Natasha seems to wilt. As if she was finally just realizing that she had said the wrong thing. That the true cause of your misery, at your anger towards her, was still an enigma. “Yes,” she whispers. “I let them go.”
Shaking your head, you take another step away from her, your eyes watering once more at the truth that was so obvious for so long. That you had been blinded from for too long. “I’ve never really known you have I?” 
Her head snaps up to stare at you at the question. A horrified expression crossing her face as she finally realized how much damage had been inflicted. Emerald green eyes shining with even more suppressed tears as she begged you to understand. “Of course you know me, Y/N. You’re the only one that has ever truly known me. I’ve given my everything to you. Please tell me how I can fix this. Tell me how I can repair us.” 
“There’s no fixing this, Natasha. Rhodey is crippled because of your decision to let the rogues go. Tony’s best friend is crippled because of you. He trusted you, believed in you, and you did this? I know that they’re your family, Natasha, I do. But they were ours too. Did you really think that Tony would let them be second-rate citizens forever? Did you really think that we wouldn’t do everything in our power to protect them?” A self deprecating smile flashes across your face. You already knew that answer to all of them. “Of course you didn’t. You didn’t believe that the egomaniacal Starks could save the day. That we wouldn’t just wait for the easy way out and be done with it.”
“No, lyubov moya,” Natasha denies immediately. “I would never think such things about you or Tony. Not anymore. Not since I’ve been able to see what lies beneath the masks. I could understand Steve’s plight. I knew that no matter what you or Tony did it wouldn’t be enough to save them. That Ross and the others would do everything in their power to muzzle us. That’s why I let them go. I couldn’t imagine someone being on the same leash I had been on.”
“Is that why you kept the true cause of my parents death from me? To save them?” 
A shocked look passes over Natasha’s face at your question-- a small flinch appearing at the ire strewn within each syllable. 
“Steve didn’t tell you?”
A bark of laughter erupts from your mouth. “Of course, your precious Steve didn’t tell me. Why the fuck would Rogers tell me anything that didn’t pertain to him being the golden boy? He’s Captain America. We wouldn't want him to lose that spotless repertoire.” You take a small step towards her. Your eyes turn acidic as your voice lowered into a snarl. “But it doesn’t matter that he didn’t tell me. You should have been the one to do so. You. The same woman that has shared my bed for years. The same woman that has made me look like a fool for years because I couldn’t see what was right in front of me.” 
“And what’s that, Y/N? What has been right in front of you this whole time?” 
“That I don’t know who you are anymore, Natasha.” You stifle the urge to sob at the look that passes over her face at the admission. “That you’re making me think that what they told me about you was right.”
As if you had physically struck her, Natasha stumbled back. Her face, if possible, turning even paler than you had ever seen it. “What have they been telling you?”
Turning your head, your eyes find the decanter filled with amber. Wishing that you had a glass in your hand. Wanting nothing more than to stop this conversation in its tracks. To simply open your arms and accept Natasha back. To let your heart open up once more to her. There was nothing more that you wanted-- even if you knew it could never be a possibility. 
“You may have left the Red Room behind, Natasha.” You begin with a small, dejected, sigh falling from your lips. Your gaze meeting hers once more. “But the Red Room has never left you. Nor will it ever leave you. I know that you’re more than the red in your ledger. I believe that more strongly than you could ever possibly know. No matter how much I wish otherwise, however, you will always be a spy. That’s how you were trained to be. That’s how you were raised and nothing can ever negate that. I’m not saying you’re a double agent, Natasha, I’m not. I just don’t think you’ve ever truly been on our side. I think that the bond you have with Steve, with the others, will always be stronger than the bond you have with us. They’re soldiers, survivors, heroes.” A small smile quirks your lips. “Hell some of them are even spies too. While I’m just an heiress with a lot of daddy issues. With an older brother that sometimes goes over the top. I don’t blame you for choosing them. I don’t blame you for staying true to who you are. I just don’t think I can ever forgive you.”
“Y/N/N,” Natasha pleads. Emerald eyes desperate as she took a small step towards you. Her entire being wilting as you took a step back. A normally impassive face losing its internal battle as tears started to flow down her face. A small sob falling from her lips as she realized that she had lost you. “I’m sorry. I’m so sorry. Don’t do this. Please don’t do this.”
At the sight of her tears, you finally lose your own internal struggle. Moving towards her and taking her into your arms. Trying to ignore how right it felt to have her there. Trying to ignore the feeling of her tears hitting your skin. Of her heavy breathing as she tried to control herself. The almost desperate way she was clinging onto you. For she knew the moment she let go you would be gone. 
Lowering your head, you press a small kiss to the top of her head. Your arms tightening around her as you said a silent goodbye. 
“I’m sorry too, Natasha. I’m sorry it’s turned out like this.” Pulling back, you cup her face in your hands. Fighting back even more tears as she nuzzled into the embrace. Emerald green shimmering with her pain. You offer a watery smile towards her. “I’ll give you a head start.” 
Another sob escapes her lips. “I would go to jail for the rest of my life if it still meant I had you.”
“I don’t think I would ever be able to live with myself if you went to jail because of me, Natasha.”
“And I don’t think I’ll ever be able to live with myself knowing that I’m the reason I lost the love of my life.” 
Not knowing what else to do, you pull Natasha back into your arms. Memorizing the feel of her body pressing into yours. Her scent wafting through your nose-- the feeling of home coming with it. The strength she exuded even when she was nuzzled into your neck. Her arms never wavering from your waist as she returned your embrace. Knowing that this was possibly the last time you would ever get to hold her filled you to the brim with anguish. 
After another moment passes, you finally step back from Natasha. Gently pulling her arms from around you as she tried to hold on. Your eyes meeting her agonized emerald. 
“I love you, Y/N,” she murmurs.
“I love you too, Nat,” you murmur back. “I think I always will.”
Glancing towards the clock situated on the wall, you finally notice the time. Without turning back to her, you speak. “It’s around the time that Tony will be getting up, Natasha. I think you should leave now while you still have the chance.”
There was a beat of silence. Where, for a moment, you thought that Natasha wouldn’t leave. That she was going to stay resolutely in front of you. Her warmth caressing your body like a blanket. 
That moment didn’t last long. As the warmth slipped from you like water through your fingers. Your eyes closing at the painful feeling the chill caused. The loneliness that was pressing down onto you. Something that only doubled when you heard the faint ding of the elevator. 
The only proof of her presence being the faint scent of her and the pain in your chest. 
Opening your eyes, you level your gaze back towards the decanter. 
One more drink wouldn’t hurt.
Not if it meant you could suppress everything that has happened. 
If it meant you wouldn’t see her face every time you closed your eyes. 
Anything would be better than the pain.
Even if you had to be numb to achieve it.
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wrongfullythinking · 4 years
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Science and Data and Freedoms
There are millions of these rants around, so you are under no need to read mine.  In fact, what I am about to say here should not be taken as anything more than one person’s opinion.  OPINION.  I have several qualifications (I will get to those in a second), but still, this blog is primarily concerned with, as the title suggest, wrong thought.  And yes, thoughts can be flat-out wrong, but that’s another topic for another time, yes?  I primarily abandoned this blog when tumblr decided to advocate for censorship, and well, if you don’t think that was very bad thinking, then I can’t help you and you certainly should stop reading now.  But mostly, I find myself needing a little bit of a platform to rant, so here it is.  This is not for you.  This is for me.  But maybe, if you read it, and you learn something, then it was a little bit more than that, and that’s entirely unnecessary but I’ll be fine with it.  Don’t worry, I’ll keep it a secret.
My qualifications 1) I have a Ph.D. from a major research institution in America.  What that means, most importantly, is actual training in how to read and understand academic writing. 2) I teach statistics, among other things, and I teach in a public health college at another major research institution in America. 3) I work with epidemiologists, though I don’t claim that title myself (I describe myself a psychometrician with an expertise in educational measurement), and I am currently working on several projects using epidemiological methods. 4) A portion of my work in educational measurement focuses on critical thinking, particularly the development of critical thinking and problem-solving skills.
Premises So, let’s organize this in a logical manner.  To do so, we generally start with a series of premises.  Here are some of mine. 1) Most people are afraid of dying. 2) The fear of dying plays some part in how people live their lives. 3) People are willing to make some tradeoffs between Safety and Liberty. 4) There is an inverse relationship between Safety and Liberty.  The more liberty, the less safety.  This is only a unidirectional inverse relationship (as liberty ascends, safety decreases), and NOT true in the opposite direction (as safety ascends, liberty must decrease).  This is VERY IMPORTANT. 5) People are poor estimators of their own odds of death, and especially how certain events (say, getting drunk at a party or smoking a hallucinogenic drug or driving recklessly) contribute to their risk of death. 6) There is much unknown about the “novel coronavirus” or SARS-COV_2 or Covid-19 (use whatever term you are comfortable with, the distinction between all of these is arbitrary and unimportant... the root of communication is exchange of messaging between two parties, and all these terms work fine in most cases, since we’re hardly in a lab where it is very important to separate out disease, virus, symptoms, and classifications). 7) Action has been taken by governments and individuals exceeding their statutory authorities. 8) Some of the actions taken by governments and individuals makes no difference in the ability of people to live disease-free, but does have other impacts. 9) The “other impacts” in Premise 8 can directly cause loss of life, as well as other ramifications (lack of social mobility, inability to secure safe food supplies, increase in spousal/partner/child abuse, lack of ability to achieve an education, etc.) that have social and personal consequences for potentially many years, if not generations.  This is the most controversial premise, because it has a tendency to operate on some slippery-slope type logic, which is exactly what I am going to rant against in a second.  Be wary of this one!  But it is important too.
Statistical Problem #1: Never Believe a Point Estimate If you take (my) Stats101 class, and hopefully anybody else’s similar course, one thing that should be a key takeaway is “NEVER BELIEVE A POINT ESTIMATE.”  That’s huge.  Never.  Believe.  A.  Point.  Estimate.
So, for the people who haven’t had a Stats class recently, what is a point estimate?
When you see something like “an estimated 2.2 million Americans will die from the coronavirus if action is not taken,” that “2.2 million” is a point estimate.  It is a single point.  And point estimates are a hallmark of bad reporting of often bad science.  In statistics, any time we make an estimate, we generate a confidence interval: that is, the range around which we believe that estimate to be actually correct.  This is because we don’t measure everybody; we measure a small sample, and use math to make estimates.  Since we didn’t measure everybody, there is some degree of uncertainty, and so we calculate a range that we think is very likely to contain the actual number.  This is called a confidence interval.  The wider the confidence interval, the LESS confident you are.  The narrower the confidence interval, the more confident you are.
An example.  The New York Yankees hit 306 home runs last year, and had 5561 at-bats over 162 games, meaning they hit a home run about once every 20 at-bats.  Let’s say I believe the season will be cut in half (so, 81 games instead of 162).  So, I want to know how many home runs the Yankees will hit in this shortened season.  Let’s work through several examples.
The worst example (okay, not actually the absolute worst, because I could just guess, but pretty bad). In half the games, the Yankees will hit half the home runs.  So that’s 306/2, so that’s 153.
Here’s another BAD example, but it does look legit, doesn’t it? Half of 162 is 81.  So in half the games, they will have half the at-bats, so that’s 2780.5 at-bats.  They hit a home run previously in 5.5026% of their at-bats, and 5.5062% of 2780.5 is 153.  The Yankees will hit 153 home runs next year.
A much better example The Yankees averaged 1.8888 home runs a game (306 / 162) last season.  If we take the low-end of 1.5 home runs per game (or three home runs every two games), and a high end of 2.25 home runs per game (or 9 home runs every 4 games), we expect the Yankees to hit between 121.5 and 182.25 home runs in the shortened 81 game season.
Is there a perfect example? No.  This is a great question.  Introductory statistics students will start to add all sorts of great considerations to this question: in the shortened season, won’t pitchers have less time to get warmed up, so home runs will go up?  But the same is true for batters, so home runs might go down?  If the shortened season starts later, and is played in more colder weather, are there fewer home runs?  How did the Yankees roster change?  Are they playing against more fly-ball or ground-ball pitchers?  Who changed in the rotations of the teams they will play most?  Will the rule change about facing three batters or the end of an inning increase the amount of home runs?  What about conditioning of athletes who are homebound?  No statistical estimate can take into account all factors.  And we don’t try to.  We just play the games and then call it history. So, what are the problems with the “much better example” besides not adding in all those other things? There is nothing wrong with it, it is just not very precise.  A range between 121.5 and 182.25 is more than 60, which is basically half of the low-end.  We could be like, 50% wrong from our low end and still be in the range!  That’s not very precise!
So, what does this have to do with the current issues? Mostly, I want you to very carefully consider any number you hear without a confidence interval.  If you hear a number like “2.2 million,” realize that without a stated confidence interval, the interval could be ANYTHING.  Something like, oh, I don’t know... 2.199 million.  Yep.  In other words, the only thing you could take away from that number is “anywhere between 1 person and 5 million people.  And how much are you willing to give up for that particular risk?
Statistical Problem #2: Confidence Intervals WITHIN models So, to this point, hopefully I’ve described all the things that can go wrong if you don’t use a confidence interval in your ANSWER.  But what about in the MODEL (or the prediction) itself?  Let’s say that, in the above example, we wanted to know how many home runs the Yankees will hit, and we know that MLB will shorten the season.  But we don’t know by how much.
So, let’s say that I estimate the season will be between 60 and 100 games.  That’s a pretty big margin.  Using my earlier estimates, now my confidence interval expands again: 1.5 x 60 for the low end is only 90 home runs, and 2.25 x 100 is 225 home runs!  Now my range is [60:225].  That is VERY imprecise!
The important part is that this problem compounds each time we don’t know something.  You get a wider and wider range, the less you know.  So, the more you want to put into a formula, the more you need to know... and the less you know, the wider your estimate.
Statistical Problem #3: The Missing Denominator None of the math here is particularly difficult, especially with the aid of computers and a bit of training.  So, if somebody is presenting it to you like it is super complex, think of them like a stage magician: distract, watch the glitter, and you will never notice my hand pulling the pigeon out of my coat pocket and putting it into my hat.
So, what have models been hiding from you?
The big missing piece is the denominator, or in this case, “how many people have the virus.”  That’s a VERY important number.  We need several things to build an epidemiological model, and without even an estimate of “how many people have it,” then all the rest of this is pretty much pointless.  This is because “how many people have it” is needed for at least the following: 1) Transmission Rate 2) Infection Rate 3) Fatality Rate
Luckily... we’re actually getting close to having that number!  Or at least, a confidence interval for that number.
Understanding recent data
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf
Basically, that paper says that in one county with a lot of cases, they estimate there are somewhere between 2.49% and 4.16% of the population infected, and they wouldn’t be surprised if those numbers are between 1.80% and 5.70%.  There are about 1.93 MILLION people in Santa Clara county.  1,930,000, and between 2.49 and 4.16 are ALREADY infected. So, let’s math that out, and I’m using their narrower confidence interval here.
Low End (2.49%): 48057 already infected High End (4.16): 80288 already infected.
So, now we have an actual denominator!  Or at least, RANGES of one.  They’re pretty confident the actual number is somewhere between those.
The date is important here.  The data here is April 1.  That range (48000-80000) the number of infected people as of April 1.  As of April 17th (over two weeks later), Santa Clara had reported 73 deaths.  63 of those had one comorbidity, and only 5 had no comorbidities.  Here’s the source.
https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx
So, what’s the fatality rate?
LOW pop prev: No comorbidities: 5 / 48000 = .0001041666. LOW: One or no comorbidities: 68 / 48000 = .00141666 HIGH pop prev: No comorbidities: 5 / 80200 = .000062344 HIGH: One or no comorbidities: 68 / 80200 = .00084788
We’ll go broad here, and assume one comorbidity.  Hey, a lot of us have something that is an issue, right?  But let’s apply those number to the American Population of approximately 330,000,000 people.
LOW (zero or one comorbidity) pop prev: 330mil * .00141666 = 467,497.8 HIGH (zero or one comorbidity) pop prev: 330mil * .00084788 = 279,800.4
There’s your number.  WOW, you say!  Wow!  A QUARTER TO HALF A MILLION PEOPLE MIGHT DIE!  That seems shocking!
It is, super shocking.  Remember, that’s the zero-case scenario.  The scenario where we do nothing.  Worst-case.  No vaccine, no medication, no treatment, no social distancing, nada.
Oh, let’s go ahead and go over some other numbers.  Not scenarios, actual data.
Motor Vehicle Deaths (2018): 36,560 Medical Error Deaths (2011): Between 210,000 and 400,000 https://journals.lww.com/journalpatientsafety/Fulltext/2013/09000/A_New,_Evidence_based_Estimate_of_Patient_Harms.2.aspx Accidents (2017): 169,936 Diabetes (2017): 83,564 Influenza/Pneumonia (2017): 55,672 Suicide/Self-harm complications: 47,173 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
((Note, because somebody will inevitably ask: The “Death by Guns” rate is a tough one to count, because the majority of gun deaths are also suicides.  The Gun Homicide+Accident fatality rate is likely between about 10,000 and 13,000 per year (about a third of the car accident fatality rate).  If you’re interested in that number, be sure to look at the data split by category, or if you are interpreting suicides with guns in your gun death count, just be explicit about it, don’t be a pigeon-holding magician.))
Interpretation: Doing nothing at all, we would expect Covid to jump the rates of Influenza/Pneumonia deaths from 7th to 3rd in America, with somewhere between about 340,000 and 530,000 deaths.  I arrive at that number by adding 60,000 to the estimates above, for other non-Covid related Flu/Influenza deaths.  That would put Influenza/Pneumonia above the estimates of death due to medical errors, and well behind the two leading causes of death in the US (CVD and Cancer).  This is provided that there is no emergent medical option.
So, what’s the downside?  Why not do all these drastic things (like shelter-in-place orders and be forced to shut down your business) if it prevents between 1/4 and 1/2 of a million deaths? That’s a good question!  The point here is that orders have consequences, and most of them are unknown at the time of the order.  For example, let’s take a pretty simple policy: requiring every driver to car insurance.  Seems like a fundamental thing, right?  Well, now you’ve also driven the price of car ownership up.  More rural areas (which are often poorer) now have an additional cost burden, that is not shared by people who live in major cities with large public transportation networks.  And you’ve created a secondary market (insurance agents) who now have incentives to raise prices, and huge potential for collusion.  And what about people who defy that order?  Well, that’s tricky-- in some places there are additional policies for covering wrecks involving uninsured drivers, and in those places, car insurance costs more.  So you’re paying more, out of your pocket, because somebody else didn’t follow a policy.  And that means you have less money to go shopping or go out to eat, which means fewer people at stores have jobs.  All of this ties together.
So, what are the unintentional consequences of the shelter-in-place and business-shuttering orders?  The most obvious ones are the losses of income, including jobs, and the 10 million accompanying jobless claims.  But is that such a big problem?  Think about what is happening in homes without jobs... and remember, you are still legally required to pay car insurance.  So that’s the direct one.
But there are multitudes of indirect ones.  For example, this is not an academic article, but...
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2020/03/21/coronavirus-pandemic-could-become-child-abuse-pandemic-experts-warn/2892923001/
And remember, a lot of children who are subject of abuse are from low-income families.  And what did they normally get?  Free and reduced-price lunch at schools.  Now, they aren’t getting those.  Sure, in a few places here and there, some schools are delivering similar meals.  But the vast, vast majority of elementary and high-school aged students on free/reduced lunches are not getting them.  So that leaves parents (or caretakers) to pick up the burden.  Those same parents and caretakers who are filing the 10 million unemployment claims.  Uh-oh.  Sounds stressful.
Guess what stress does to people?  It makes them sick.  And you know what happens when you get an ulcer?  Hopefully not much, but bad ones can end you up in a hospital.  Where there are many procedures, but most of them minor.  Unfortunately, hospitals right now are being forbidden from doing elective surgeries.  And elective surgeries helped pay for other services, like necessary surgeries and emergency care.  So, the ER is literally understaffed, even in regions where there are no COVID patients, because the state has forbidden the tummy tucks that pay the salaries of ER nurses.
You see the tumble here?  This is where I cautioned earlier about the slippery slope argument, and it is an absolutely valid critique of what I’m putting here.  But we’ve gone past speculation territory and are now in data territory.  And (again, work in health care education), I know some people who are starting to see these effects.  One of the faculty at my school (teaches our Law course) is a lawyer for a rural hospital service.  He has watched them lay off or furlough over 60% of workers.  And they have had... wait for it... 0 covid cases.  The few that were suspected, they flew down to a much larger hospital.  At high cost, because they can’t charge for COVID services.
Meanwhile, you’re talking a rural system that was one of the top employers in four different counties.  Laying off or furloughing 60% of workers.  The guy was so upset telling me about this that he almost cried, especially because he knew the families of so many of the people his board had just let go.
Any caveats to add? The big caveat that I place on the interpretation here (basically, that’s we’ve VASTLY oversold the risk of this thing) is that we don’t know about secondary infections.  If you can get infected twice, and that second infection is harmful or make you able to spread the disease to others who are then harmed, then all these numbers are too low. Bottom-line it for me, WT. Fear leads to the dark side, where you have no freedoms.  Don’t give up things because you were scared and because somebody showed you a point of data that you should not believe.
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ronaldmrashid · 6 years
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How A Grantor Retained Annuity Trust (GRAT) Can Save You Millions In Estate Taxes
As responsible parents we set up a revocable living trust so that in case of our untimely demise, our son would be protected and taken care of. Going through public probate court is not only a hassle, but a violation of our financial privacy.
When I asked my centimillionaire friend what type of estate planning he does, since his net worth is well over the estate tax exemption amount per person of $11.4M, he said a main strategy he uses is the Grantor Retained Annuity Trust or GRAT.
If the GRAT is set up and executed properly, a significant amount of wealth can move down to the next generation with virtually no estate or gift tax ramifications.
Let’s learn how a GRAT works with a couple of examples that show how millions of dollars can be saved in estate taxes.
How Does A GRAT Work?
You, the grantor, transfer assets to a trust (GRAT) and retain the right to receive an annuity payment for a term of years. At the end of the term, the assets remaining in the GRAT are distributed to your children (or other beneficiaries).
The transfer to the GRAT will trigger a gift tax event. However, the value of the taxable gift is not the value of the assets transferred to the GRAT. Instead, the gift is reduced by the actuarial value of the annuity you retain.
If the annuity is structured properly, it equals the value of the assets, and there is no gift. This is referred to as a “zeroed-out” GRAT.
The amount of the annuity payment that is required to be paid to the grantor during the term of the GRAT is calculated by using an interest rate the IRS determines monthly called the section 7520 rate.
The section 7520 rate for January 2019 is 3.4 percent. Here is a chart of the historical annuity payments from the IRS.
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The grantor should set the annuity payment equal to the section 7520 interest rate and no higher because a higher annuity payment simply means more taxable income.
The grantor’s goal is to make the spread between the 7520 interest payment and the annual return on the asset getting transferred into the GRAT as high as possible. This spread will ultimately be the value of the tax-free gift when the grantor passes away.
The grantor sets up a GRAT because s/he is betting the assets transferred into the GRAT will appreciate in value above and beyond the section 7520 interest rate.
So while the grantor will receive the annuity payments and pay taxes on those payments, the beneficiaries of the GRAT will receive the underlying GRAT assets at their value. It’s the value of those assets that will appreciate over and above the section 7520 rate.
A GRAT Example Using A Home
My friend set up a GRAT to pass his San Francisco home to his kids. He put his then $10 million home into a GRAT in 2010 when his kids were in elementary school.
At the time, the 7520 rate was 2%. He made a bet that his San Francisco home would appreciate quicker than the 2% annual annuity payment.
Given the historical annual appreciation of San Francisco property has been closer to 8% a year, my friend made a wise move. Check out the appreciation chart since 2010.
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As of 2019, his $10 million home is now worth closer to $18 million, which is indeed about a 8% compound annual rate of appreciation.
Since the start of the GRAT, my friend has had to pay taxes on about $200,000 – $360,000 a year worth of annuity income for nine years = ~$2.5 million total annuity income X 40% effective tax rate = $1 million in taxes.
On the flip side, he has been gifting his kids 5% – 6% of appreciated value each year on average since 2010, or roughly $5 – $5.5 million worth of estate value tax-free for a $2 – $2.2 million tax savings.
There’s no free lunch. But there is $1-$1.2 million in estimated estate tax savings in this example. The longer the appreciation time period over the 7520 rate, the greater the tax savings.
If my friend decided to stop making a high income during the GRAT period, he could have paid a lower marginal tax rate on his GRAT annuity income, thereby saving even more in estate taxes.
A GRAT Example Using A Business
In addition to potentially high performing real estate, virtually any type of asset can be transferred into a GRAT which you think will outperform the annuity interest rate over the long term.
A stock portfolio could easily be another example given the S&P 500 has historically returned much higher than the section 7520 rate. But let’s talk about transferring a high growth business into a GRAT instead.
One popular option is to transfer non-voting stock in a closely-held business to the GRAT while retaining all (or a controlling interest in) the voting shares. This works particularly well with S-Corporation stock.
We know from the net worth composition by wealth chart the richer you are, the larger the Business Interests percentage is to your overall net worth. By the time you’re a billionaire, your net worth is comprised mostly of Business Interests.
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For example, I could transfer Financial Samurai into a GRAT and put it in my son’s name. Given he’s too young to know anything about online media, he’ll get non-voting stock, and I would retain control of the business until he’s old enough to understand and want someday to take over the business.
Based on history, I shouldn’t have a problem outperforming the latest 7520 rate of 3.6% of the GRAT by a wide margin.
For illustrative purposes, let’s say Financial Samurai is worth $10 million today and the business grows in value by 20% a year above the 7520 rate of 3.6% for 10 years. In 10 years, the business would be worth $83,211,799.
I’d have to pay taxes on roughly $3,600,000 of annuity payments during this time period ($10M X 3.6% X 10 years), which would amount to $1,080,000 in taxes at a 30% effective tax rate.
However, I would be able to transfer $73,211,799 million in wealth to my son and other heirs estate tax-free once the term of the GRAT expires. That would be an estate tax savings of about $29,300,000!
Obviously, growing the value an already established small business by 20% a year over the 7520 rate of 2% – 4% is no small feat. But it’s always good to think big. With enough discipline, creativity, and courage, anything is possible. Pumped to start a business yet? Makes me want to start another!
Another reason for establishing a GRAT is if you foresee a sale of your business at a big premium in the next few years. The big premium could be from you undervaluing the value of your business in your estate or through a true market valuation multiple expansion from an interested suitor.
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Note: the GRAT is considered a “grantor-type trust” by the IRS. Thus, the tax on any income generated on such a trust is your individual responsibility. This can enhance trust performance because trust income is not required to be used to pay the taxes on its generated income.
The Downside Of Using A GRAT
There are three downsides to using a GRAT:
1) The assets transferred into the GRAT could grow at a rate lower than the section 7520 rate. If this is the case, then the trustmaker/grantor will simply receive back the trust property at its depreciated value and will only be out the legal fees that were paid to set up the GRAT.
2) The trustmaker/grantor could die during the term of the GRAT. If this is the case, then all of the property transferred into the GRAT would revert back into the estate of the trustmaker/grantor and be taxable for estate tax purposes, and the trustmaker/grantor will also be out the legal fees that were paid to set up the GRAT.
3) Finally, setting up a GRAT takes research, time, and money. The estate attorney I use charges a couple thousand dollars to set up a GRAT.
Who Is The GRAT Best For?
The GRAT is great for those who have estates or anticipate having estates greater than the current and expected estate tax exemption amount.
Below is the historical gift tax exemption amount per person and its corresponding estate tax rate. As you can see, the Estate Tax Exemption is at an all-time high while the Estate Tax Rate is close to its historical lows.
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If you expect to die with less than the estate tax exemption amount, it may be better to just create a revocable living trust instead.
If you, the grantor believes the asset transferred into the GRAT will outperform the section 7520 interest rate, that you will live to see the end of the term of the GRAT, and that you will not need the gifted property later in life to pay for living expenses or long-term care, then setting up a GRAT should be a good move.
Just know that the laws can change in the future. For example, President Obama sought to weaken GRATs as an estate reduction tool in his budget proposals throughout his time in office, but failed. The Tax Cut And Jobs Act should theoretically keep the rules in place until December 31, 2025, but you never know.
The next time you talk to your estate planning attorney, ask him or her about the GRAT. Show them this article and ask them to poke holes at my examples. Then come back and share your wisdom.
The only way to benefit is to learn and take action.
Related: Three Things I Learned From My Estate Planning Attorney Everyone Should Do
Readers, anybody with a GRAT and want to share how you are using it to save on estate taxes? If there are any estate planning lawyers, please chime in as I’m not one.
The post How A Grantor Retained Annuity Trust (GRAT) Can Save You Millions In Estate Taxes appeared first on Financial Samurai.
from https://www.financialsamurai.com/what-is-a-grantor-retained-annuity-trust-grat-and-how-does-it-work/
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asafeatherwould · 6 years
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Should Filing Bankruptcy Be The Last Resort?
Although we’ve mentioned it time and again on the forum, it bears repeating: filing for bankruptcy is not a decision to be entered into lightly. In fact, it is important to get good information and carefully weigh your options.
Is Bankruptcy Always a Last Resort?
Having said that, delaying too long can cause unnecessary financial strain and serve to compound existing problems. Is bankruptcy always the last option? Some of the common things consumers do before they consider bankruptcy include: • Cash out their retirement funds to pay debt • Pay a debt settlement company to settle their debts • Settle their debt by dealing directly with the creditor or its attorney In some cases, these bankruptcy alternatives can be just what the doctor ordered, however in others they can put you in deeper trouble without meaningful debt relief.
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Depleting Your Retirement To Pay Debt
Selling assets to avoid bankruptcy is often a bad idea and a retirement account is no exception. As Bankruptcy Lawyers in Utah like to point out to everyone who meets with us about bankruptcy…
The fact is that the lingering recession is causing a lot of people to file for bankruptcy who never thought they would. While the recession is is undoubtedly a sad turn of events, I am also seeing an even more disturbing trend. Namely, a lot of them are selling all of their property in an effort to stay current with their bills and avoid filing for bankruptcy. By the time they come to me, they have already gone through everything they own. While these efforts are always well-intentioned, they are catastrophic for their finances. In a lot of cases, people are selling assets that they would otherwise be able to keep if they would have thought about filing for bankruptcy a little sooner.
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Perhaps nowhere is this point better illustrated than in the context of a retirement account. ERISA qualified 401(k) accounts and many IRAs are completely exempt in bankruptcy. This means you can file bankruptcy, shed your debts and keep your retirement. As Jacob describes, it is always difficult to see someone liquidate their retirement only to be forced into bankruptcy a few months later. For more information, see: Retirement Savings and Bankruptcy.
Debt Settlement vs. Bankruptcy
Debt settlement companies promise the world but rarely deliver. They often charge fees that far exceed the cost of bankruptcy and actually require their clients to go deep in default in order to settle their debts. Here is how the process works: you, the debtor, stop paying on your credit card accounts and other bills and instead save some of the money. When you’re deep enough in default, the creditor has written off the debt and may agree to accept a reduced payment in satisfaction of the balance. You fork over the money you’ve saved plus a hefty fee and you’re out of debt. That’s how it works sometimes, but definitely not all the time. While you’re waiting on the debt settlement company, you’re creditors are definitely not waiting on you. They’re reporting delinquencies on your credit. calling and sometimes actually suing to collect. By the time you’ve reached your debt settlement goals, your wages may already be in the process of being garnished or a judgment might have been entered against you. Sure, filing for bankruptcy can help with most of these problems, but why wait?
Negotiating With Creditors instead of Bankruptcy
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While the debt settlement waiting game is expensive and often ineffective, sometimes negotiating directly with creditors can be a nice alternative to filing for bankruptcy if you already have the cash to make a deal. If you stand to have more assets liquidated in bankruptcy than you’d save in debt, dealing with the creditor through an attorney can often result in signifcant savings and a permanent solution to the problem. In these cases, bankruptcy may very well be your best option. For example, let’s say you owe $50,000 on a delinquent business loan but have $150,000 in cash and stocks. Filing for bankruptcy would result in the trustee liquidating your stock portfolio to pay your creditors, in fact, they’d likely get paid in full. In these instances, it makes much more sense to negotiate a reduced payment directly with the creditor.
Fresh Start For You
Although the costs are not insignificant, the purpose of bankruptcy is to provide those struggling with debt a fresh start. Sometimes, the bankruptcy card is only to be played as a last resort, however, in some cases it offers the most thorough relief on the best timeline. Each situation is different, if you’re contemplating bankruptcy, be sure to meet with an experienced attorney.
Free Consultation with a Bankruptcy Lawyer
If you have a bankruptcy question, or need to file a bankruptcy case, call Ascent Law now at (801) 676-5506. Attorneys in our office have filed over a thousand cases. We can help you now. Come in or call in for your free initial consultation.
Ascent Law LLC8833 S. Redwood Road, Suite CWest Jordan, Utah 84088 United StatesTelephone: (801) 676-5506
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Source: http://www.ascentlawfirm.com/should-filing-bankruptcy-be-the-last-resort/
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michaeljames1221 · 6 years
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Should Filing Bankruptcy Be The Last Resort?
Although we’ve mentioned it time and again on the forum, it bears repeating: filing for bankruptcy is not a decision to be entered into lightly. In fact, it is important to get good information and carefully weigh your options.
Is Bankruptcy Always a Last Resort?
Having said that, delaying too long can cause unnecessary financial strain and serve to compound existing problems. Is bankruptcy always the last option? Some of the common things consumers do before they consider bankruptcy include: • Cash out their retirement funds to pay debt • Pay a debt settlement company to settle their debts • Settle their debt by dealing directly with the creditor or its attorney In some cases, these bankruptcy alternatives can be just what the doctor ordered, however in others they can put you in deeper trouble without meaningful debt relief.
youtube
Depleting Your Retirement To Pay Debt
Selling assets to avoid bankruptcy is often a bad idea and a retirement account is no exception. As Bankruptcy Lawyers in Utah like to point out to everyone who meets with us about bankruptcy…
The fact is that the lingering recession is causing a lot of people to file for bankruptcy who never thought they would. While the recession is is undoubtedly a sad turn of events, I am also seeing an even more disturbing trend. Namely, a lot of them are selling all of their property in an effort to stay current with their bills and avoid filing for bankruptcy. By the time they come to me, they have already gone through everything they own. While these efforts are always well-intentioned, they are catastrophic for their finances. In a lot of cases, people are selling assets that they would otherwise be able to keep if they would have thought about filing for bankruptcy a little sooner.
youtube
Perhaps nowhere is this point better illustrated than in the context of a retirement account. ERISA qualified 401(k) accounts and many IRAs are completely exempt in bankruptcy. This means you can file bankruptcy, shed your debts and keep your retirement. As Jacob describes, it is always difficult to see someone liquidate their retirement only to be forced into bankruptcy a few months later. For more information, see: Retirement Savings and Bankruptcy.
Debt Settlement vs. Bankruptcy
Debt settlement companies promise the world but rarely deliver. They often charge fees that far exceed the cost of bankruptcy and actually require their clients to go deep in default in order to settle their debts. Here is how the process works: you, the debtor, stop paying on your credit card accounts and other bills and instead save some of the money. When you’re deep enough in default, the creditor has written off the debt and may agree to accept a reduced payment in satisfaction of the balance. You fork over the money you’ve saved plus a hefty fee and you’re out of debt. That’s how it works sometimes, but definitely not all the time. While you’re waiting on the debt settlement company, you’re creditors are definitely not waiting on you. They’re reporting delinquencies on your credit. calling and sometimes actually suing to collect. By the time you’ve reached your debt settlement goals, your wages may already be in the process of being garnished or a judgment might have been entered against you. Sure, filing for bankruptcy can help with most of these problems, but why wait?
Negotiating With Creditors instead of Bankruptcy
youtube
While the debt settlement waiting game is expensive and often ineffective, sometimes negotiating directly with creditors can be a nice alternative to filing for bankruptcy if you already have the cash to make a deal. If you stand to have more assets liquidated in bankruptcy than you’d save in debt, dealing with the creditor through an attorney can often result in signifcant savings and a permanent solution to the problem. In these cases, bankruptcy may very well be your best option. For example, let’s say you owe $50,000 on a delinquent business loan but have $150,000 in cash and stocks. Filing for bankruptcy would result in the trustee liquidating your stock portfolio to pay your creditors, in fact, they’d likely get paid in full. In these instances, it makes much more sense to negotiate a reduced payment directly with the creditor.
Fresh Start For You
Although the costs are not insignificant, the purpose of bankruptcy is to provide those struggling with debt a fresh start. Sometimes, the bankruptcy card is only to be played as a last resort, however, in some cases it offers the most thorough relief on the best timeline. Each situation is different, if you’re contemplating bankruptcy, be sure to meet with an experienced attorney.
Free Consultation with a Bankruptcy Lawyer
If you have a bankruptcy question, or need to file a bankruptcy case, call Ascent Law now at (801) 676-5506. Attorneys in our office have filed over a thousand cases. We can help you now. Come in or call in for your free initial consultation.
Ascent Law LLC8833 S. Redwood Road, Suite CWest Jordan, Utah 84088 United StatesTelephone: (801) 676-5506
Ascent Law LLC
4.9 stars – based on 67 reviews
Recent Posts
What is a Chapter 7 Bankruptcy?
Beneficiary of a Will
Tax Refund and Bankruptcy
How to be a Safe Motorcycle Rider
Can I Be Denied a Job Because of Bankruptcy?
How to Get a Divorce When You Are Struggling Financially
from Michael Anderson http://www.ascentlawfirm.com/should-filing-bankruptcy-be-the-last-resort/
from Criminal Defense Lawyer West Jordan Utah https://criminaldefenselawyerwestjordanutah.wordpress.com/2018/04/09/should-filing-bankruptcy-be-the-last-resort/
0 notes
loycereiber · 6 years
Text
Should Filing Bankruptcy Be The Last Resort?
Although we’ve mentioned it time and again on the forum, it bears repeating: filing for bankruptcy is not a decision to be entered into lightly. In fact, it is important to get good information and carefully weigh your options.
Is Bankruptcy Always a Last Resort?
Having said that, delaying too long can cause unnecessary financial strain and serve to compound existing problems. Is bankruptcy always the last option? Some of the common things consumers do before they consider bankruptcy include: • Cash out their retirement funds to pay debt • Pay a debt settlement company to settle their debts • Settle their debt by dealing directly with the creditor or its attorney In some cases, these bankruptcy alternatives can be just what the doctor ordered, however in others they can put you in deeper trouble without meaningful debt relief.
youtube
Depleting Your Retirement To Pay Debt
Selling assets to avoid bankruptcy is often a bad idea and a retirement account is no exception. As Bankruptcy Lawyers in Utah like to point out to everyone who meets with us about bankruptcy…
The fact is that the lingering recession is causing a lot of people to file for bankruptcy who never thought they would. While the recession is is undoubtedly a sad turn of events, I am also seeing an even more disturbing trend. Namely, a lot of them are selling all of their property in an effort to stay current with their bills and avoid filing for bankruptcy. By the time they come to me, they have already gone through everything they own. While these efforts are always well-intentioned, they are catastrophic for their finances. In a lot of cases, people are selling assets that they would otherwise be able to keep if they would have thought about filing for bankruptcy a little sooner.
youtube
Perhaps nowhere is this point better illustrated than in the context of a retirement account. ERISA qualified 401(k) accounts and many IRAs are completely exempt in bankruptcy. This means you can file bankruptcy, shed your debts and keep your retirement. As Jacob describes, it is always difficult to see someone liquidate their retirement only to be forced into bankruptcy a few months later. For more information, see: Retirement Savings and Bankruptcy.
Debt Settlement vs. Bankruptcy
Debt settlement companies promise the world but rarely deliver. They often charge fees that far exceed the cost of bankruptcy and actually require their clients to go deep in default in order to settle their debts. Here is how the process works: you, the debtor, stop paying on your credit card accounts and other bills and instead save some of the money. When you’re deep enough in default, the creditor has written off the debt and may agree to accept a reduced payment in satisfaction of the balance. You fork over the money you’ve saved plus a hefty fee and you’re out of debt. That’s how it works sometimes, but definitely not all the time. While you’re waiting on the debt settlement company, you’re creditors are definitely not waiting on you. They’re reporting delinquencies on your credit. calling and sometimes actually suing to collect. By the time you’ve reached your debt settlement goals, your wages may already be in the process of being garnished or a judgment might have been entered against you. Sure, filing for bankruptcy can help with most of these problems, but why wait?
Negotiating With Creditors instead of Bankruptcy
youtube
While the debt settlement waiting game is expensive and often ineffective, sometimes negotiating directly with creditors can be a nice alternative to filing for bankruptcy if you already have the cash to make a deal. If you stand to have more assets liquidated in bankruptcy than you’d save in debt, dealing with the creditor through an attorney can often result in signifcant savings and a permanent solution to the problem. In these cases, bankruptcy may very well be your best option. For example, let’s say you owe $50,000 on a delinquent business loan but have $150,000 in cash and stocks. Filing for bankruptcy would result in the trustee liquidating your stock portfolio to pay your creditors, in fact, they’d likely get paid in full. In these instances, it makes much more sense to negotiate a reduced payment directly with the creditor.
Fresh Start For You
Although the costs are not insignificant, the purpose of bankruptcy is to provide those struggling with debt a fresh start. Sometimes, the bankruptcy card is only to be played as a last resort, however, in some cases it offers the most thorough relief on the best timeline. Each situation is different, if you’re contemplating bankruptcy, be sure to meet with an experienced attorney.
Free Consultation with a Bankruptcy Lawyer
If you have a bankruptcy question, or need to file a bankruptcy case, call Ascent Law now at (801) 676-5506. Attorneys in our office have filed over a thousand cases. We can help you now. Come in or call in for your free initial consultation.
Ascent Law LLC8833 S. Redwood Road, Suite CWest Jordan, Utah 84088 United StatesTelephone: (801) 676-5506
Ascent Law LLC
4.9 stars – based on 67 reviews
Recent Posts
What is a Chapter 7 Bankruptcy?
Beneficiary of a Will
Tax Refund and Bankruptcy
How to be a Safe Motorcycle Rider
Can I Be Denied a Job Because of Bankruptcy?
How to Get a Divorce When You Are Struggling Financially
Source: http://www.ascentlawfirm.com/should-filing-bankruptcy-be-the-last-resort/
0 notes
jimmiekiser · 6 years
Text
Should Filing Bankruptcy Be The Last Resort?
Although we’ve mentioned it time and again on the forum, it bears repeating: filing for bankruptcy is not a decision to be entered into lightly. In fact, it is important to get good information and carefully weigh your options.
Is Bankruptcy Always a Last Resort?
Having said that, delaying too long can cause unnecessary financial strain and serve to compound existing problems. Is bankruptcy always the last option? Some of the common things consumers do before they consider bankruptcy include: • Cash out their retirement funds to pay debt • Pay a debt settlement company to settle their debts • Settle their debt by dealing directly with the creditor or its attorney In some cases, these bankruptcy alternatives can be just what the doctor ordered, however in others they can put you in deeper trouble without meaningful debt relief.
youtube
Depleting Your Retirement To Pay Debt
Selling assets to avoid bankruptcy is often a bad idea and a retirement account is no exception. As Bankruptcy Lawyers in Utah like to point out to everyone who meets with us about bankruptcy…
The fact is that the lingering recession is causing a lot of people to file for bankruptcy who never thought they would. While the recession is is undoubtedly a sad turn of events, I am also seeing an even more disturbing trend. Namely, a lot of them are selling all of their property in an effort to stay current with their bills and avoid filing for bankruptcy. By the time they come to me, they have already gone through everything they own. While these efforts are always well-intentioned, they are catastrophic for their finances. In a lot of cases, people are selling assets that they would otherwise be able to keep if they would have thought about filing for bankruptcy a little sooner.
youtube
Perhaps nowhere is this point better illustrated than in the context of a retirement account. ERISA qualified 401(k) accounts and many IRAs are completely exempt in bankruptcy. This means you can file bankruptcy, shed your debts and keep your retirement. As Jacob describes, it is always difficult to see someone liquidate their retirement only to be forced into bankruptcy a few months later. For more information, see: Retirement Savings and Bankruptcy.
Debt Settlement vs. Bankruptcy
Debt settlement companies promise the world but rarely deliver. They often charge fees that far exceed the cost of bankruptcy and actually require their clients to go deep in default in order to settle their debts. Here is how the process works: you, the debtor, stop paying on your credit card accounts and other bills and instead save some of the money. When you’re deep enough in default, the creditor has written off the debt and may agree to accept a reduced payment in satisfaction of the balance. You fork over the money you’ve saved plus a hefty fee and you’re out of debt. That’s how it works sometimes, but definitely not all the time. While you’re waiting on the debt settlement company, you’re creditors are definitely not waiting on you. They’re reporting delinquencies on your credit. calling and sometimes actually suing to collect. By the time you’ve reached your debt settlement goals, your wages may already be in the process of being garnished or a judgment might have been entered against you. Sure, filing for bankruptcy can help with most of these problems, but why wait?
Negotiating With Creditors instead of Bankruptcy
youtube
While the debt settlement waiting game is expensive and often ineffective, sometimes negotiating directly with creditors can be a nice alternative to filing for bankruptcy if you already have the cash to make a deal. If you stand to have more assets liquidated in bankruptcy than you’d save in debt, dealing with the creditor through an attorney can often result in signifcant savings and a permanent solution to the problem. In these cases, bankruptcy may very well be your best option. For example, let’s say you owe $50,000 on a delinquent business loan but have $150,000 in cash and stocks. Filing for bankruptcy would result in the trustee liquidating your stock portfolio to pay your creditors, in fact, they’d likely get paid in full. In these instances, it makes much more sense to negotiate a reduced payment directly with the creditor.
Fresh Start For You
Although the costs are not insignificant, the purpose of bankruptcy is to provide those struggling with debt a fresh start. Sometimes, the bankruptcy card is only to be played as a last resort, however, in some cases it offers the most thorough relief on the best timeline. Each situation is different, if you’re contemplating bankruptcy, be sure to meet with an experienced attorney.
Free Consultation with a Bankruptcy Lawyer
If you have a bankruptcy question, or need to file a bankruptcy case, call Ascent Law now at (801) 676-5506. Attorneys in our office have filed over a thousand cases. We can help you now. Come in or call in for your free initial consultation.
Ascent Law LLC8833 S. Redwood Road, Suite CWest Jordan, Utah 84088 United StatesTelephone: (801) 676-5506
Ascent Law LLC
4.9 stars – based on 67 reviews
Recent Posts
What is a Chapter 7 Bankruptcy?
Beneficiary of a Will
Tax Refund and Bankruptcy
How to be a Safe Motorcycle Rider
Can I Be Denied a Job Because of Bankruptcy?
How to Get a Divorce When You Are Struggling Financially
Source: http://www.ascentlawfirm.com/should-filing-bankruptcy-be-the-last-resort/
https://realestatelawyerwestjordanutah.wordpress.com/2018/04/09/should-filing-bankruptcy-be-the-last-resort/
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Marvel Age Vol. 1 No. 124 (May 1993)
Crossovers!
In other entertainment media, this refers to bringing an audience that likes one genre (like country-western music) to another, hybrid genre (country-western-rock) usually through the strength of a given performer's performance. This broadens their base of appeal, giving the artist a more mainstream audience. Hip-hoppers dream of crossing over and attracting a pop audience. Action stars like Jean-Claude Van Damme dream of crossing over and attracting more women to his pictures. In comics, the term has a different meaning. Crossovers are done within the same genre, and the one doing the crossing over is not the artist or the work, but the characters in the story.
Imagine Clive Barker characters making guest appearances in Stephen King's books. Imagine the kid from Home Alone meeting Problem Child. We occasionally see some of this. Seinfeld's Kramer did a guest shot as Kramer on Mad About You earlier this TV season. On the rarest occasions you'll even get genre-crossovers on TV, the classic example being when a few doctors from the dramatic series St. Elsewhere showed up on Cheers.
But when it comes to character crossovers, the comics medium in the champion, Marvel is the champion's champion, and there's no end in sight as long as you readers demand we keep doing them. Make no mistake, the vast majority of you do demand them, and they still do their magic, attracting readers to try a certain title they ordinarily would not buy. And crossovers can still be a lot of fun for us creative-types, too.
Industry jargon time. There are two different types of crossovers. A closed crossover is conceived of as involving specific titles where each title is equally important in advancing the storyline. Recent examples are "Operation: Galactic Storm," in seven different AVENGERS titles; "Dead Man's Hand" in NOMAD, DAREDEVIL and PUNISHER; and "X-Cutioner's Song" in the core X-titles. An open crossover is one which has a basic storyline told in one major series, but its ramifications and complications can play out in any title that chooses to get involved. Recent examples include the INFINITY trilogy (GAUNTLET, WAR, and CRUSADE); "Inferno" in X-MEN and "Acts of Vengeance" in AVENGERS.
The merits and demerits of the two types of crossovers? Open crossovers are more difficult to coordinate, due to the greater number of titles usually involved. On the other hand, they are more creator-friendly: no one is barred from participating ("Sorry, fella, this crossover is closed."). Open crossovers also enable the readers to pick and choose which tie-in issues of which they wish to partake. They pick up the key elements of the story by reading the keystone series, and the rest is just gravy.
Tom DeFalco has a theory that every other open crossover has lots of participants. Writers and artists get involved one year, discover all of the coordination headaches involved, vow to never do it again, and so pass up the chance to participate the next year. Months later, they get their sales incentive checks, realize the benefits and, forgetting the aggravation, agree to participate in the next one, having missed the intervening event. So it goes, year after year, according to the Chief.
The merits and demerits of a closed crossover? Each part of a closed crossover is essential, so to buy one is to commit to buying them all, or else the storyline is not going to be intelligible. They're creator-unfriendly, not allowing others to jump in if they have an inclination. Taken as a whole, they are probably more coherant, since more centralized scrutiny is given to every integral part. Participation in a closed crossover is probably a better sales boost for a title, since every part of a closed crossover is equally important to the advancement of the storyline.
In a crossover, there's usually one editor who's in charge of the whole magilla, and that's the person who's the regular editor of the main title character around whom the crossover revolves. The editor in charge, of course, has a supervisor (one of the executive editors) to look over everything in an advisory capacity, but the editor in charge has to do all the hands-on work: distributing the rough outline to everyone involved, answering continuity questions, and reviewing all the tie-in plots to make sure they conform to the details of the overall storyline.
Sound complicated? I'm not done yet. All the participating editors of the crossover must also submit their book's plots to the other participating editors if there's so much as a cameo of a given editor's character in their story. And once the art is done, photocopies of the artboards must also be distributed to fellow editors in the crossover so they can make certain that costume details and so forth are consistent. We're talking major league coordination here, folks, and it's never any wonder to me that try as hard as we might, there is always a detail that is a little off in one title or another.
I've initiated major storylines in closed crossovers. I've participated in open crossovers whose premises I had nothing to do with. I've read and supervised crossovers for which I had no input or participation. Let me bend your attention span a bit with some of my specific experiences.
"Operation: Galactic Storm" was based on a plot germ growing out of my QUASAR continuity. Quaze is supposed to be the Protector of the Universe. What would happen, thought I, if some aliens wanted to enlist his aid in a war with some other aliens? How would he decide which side to assist? Would he try to prevent the whole thing from happening, or would he turn his back on the whole murky affair? Well, when Bob Harras, Fabian Nicieza, and I were casting around for premises big enough to involve all the AVENGERS titles, I offered my QUASAR idea. Obviously, if the war infringed upon Earth in some way it could be "opened up" beyond the QUASAR title. Bob, Fabe, and I then thrashed out a raw outline of key events in each of the nineteen (ulp!) chapters that comprised the crossover. This took a lot of lunches.
Then we held an AVENGERS summit meeting with all the writers and editors, in order to debug and flesh out the outline. The writers were required to cover the events that were slotted for their issues of the storyline, like it or not. In most cases, there was plenty of room for the individual writers to make their portions uniquely their own, but it was still a far greater imposition upon their titles than usual. The net result, in my opinion, was pretty successful.
Last year I also participated in the open crossover INFINITY WAR. I had nothing to do with the basic premise-- the extent of my influence on the core storyline was "Since this story's so darn cosmic, and Quasar has a unique role in the cosmos, make sure he's got something special to do, please." And so he did. Writer Jim Starlin had the mad Titanian Thanos choose Quasar, of all the assembled multitude, to wield the Ultimate Nullifier. Unique enough for me. And when I wrote my tie-ins, I was obliged to deal with events in the limited series. In one issue, Quasar's role was to "find Eternity." I relished this, since I have long been interested in exploring the means by which omnipotent abstract entities acquire humanoid forms. I used my assignment to do a real offbeat story. I was happy.
For my second crossover issue, I was a little more hamstrung. My issue came between two issues of WAR and, at the beginning of the second issue, Quas was in exactly the same predicament he was in at the end of the first. I had an issue of QUASAR where he couldn't do anything! I managed to get around this as best I could by having Q go on a fact-finding quest that no one knew he went on. Whew. Then for my third crossover issue, Quas got nullified in WAR and never came back in the course of the story(!). Obviously, I had to tell what happened to him after he got nullified, and bring him back to life. This challenge was compounded by the fact that, in his own series, Quasar had already spent a few recent issues being "dead," so it was incumbent upon me to make this new experience as different from the previous one as possible. Truth to tell, I would never have chosen to do another "after death" storyline in the course of the book if I hadn't been obliged to. I now find that having had a character come back from the dead twice makes the threat of corporeal harm pretty empty.
So that's my side of the story on the subject of crossovers. They sometimes seem like a necessary evil, and sometimes like an unnecessary good! I would be interested to hear from you what you think our best and worst coordinated mass crossovers have been (I have my own theories). But as long as the idea of crossing over from one title to another remains a way to boost interest among you readers, we're going to keep doing it. And hey, maybe one time we'll get it absolutely right.
Source: Internet Archive
(image via Trusty Plinko Stick)
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