The Awe-Inspiring Potential of the Baltimore Orioles (And how the front office can mess it up)
As the 2022 season winded down to a close, the annual clinching of postseason berth time began. The Dodgers, who went to win 111 games, the most since the Mariners won a record 116 games in 2001, clinched on September 12th. Next, the Houston Astros clinched on September 16th, and the New York Mets clinched the postseason on September 20th. These, of course, were not shocking. The Dodgers, Astros, and Mets ranked 2nd, 9th, and 1st in overall payroll.
And on September 30th, with the Mariners clinching postseason berth and ending a 21 year playoff drought, the Baltimore Orioles were eliminated. No one expected the Orioles to get this far, the Orioles, whose payroll ranked 28th out of 30 MLB teams, a third of which was going to Chris Davis, who was being paid to not play as a result of one of the worst contracts in the modern era, in what was the best division in baseball.
No one expected this Orioles team to be competitive, but now they've forced the front office's hand in the matter. This team's young talent that comes up in the next two years is unparalleled, after picking 11th, 1st, 2nd, 5th, and 1st again in the Draft the last five years, the Orioles have the ability to build a true juggernaut in the next couple of years.
However, as much as I'd like to have the Orioles succeed, I do have concerns, concerns that link up to the very top of the organization.
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MLB LEVEL
On the major league roster, the Orioles have managed to unlock some key players that they project to keep for a while. Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Ramon Urias, and impressive developments in the bullpen all give me hope for the team's development at the major league level.
None of the pieces mentioned are excellent players. The best is probably Cedric Mullins, and none of these players are stars, but they're all average to above-average players that came into the season with little to no real expectations, and showed that they can be serious contributors to this team.
In the outfield, it seems to be held up by Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins, and Austin Hays. Santander has had a couple good offensive years now, hitting 33 HRs in 2022 with a 120 wRC+. Santander has an average hit tool, and isn't a great athlete or defender, but his bat gives him enough power to be a significant contributor, and he doesn't strike out much.
Austin Hays is boring, but good. Hays is about average with everything, hit tool, power, arm, speed, and field, but he's a solid contributor in the league's weakest position of left field.
I don't know what Cedric Mullins is. I think it's pretty clear he's a very good player. Plus speed, plus glove give him a very high floor, and he's proven that he can buoy that with at least average offensive prowess, but is there more there? Mullins was a 136 wRC+ and 6 fWAR player in 2021, with plus power and a plus hit tool. In 2022, the power and the hit tool regressed back to a 106 wRC+, though he still posted a 3.4 fWAR. In all likelihood, Mullins will never have a season like 2021 again. That being said, can he be a consistent 4 WAR player and his offense becomes more 110-120 wRC+ rather than 95-105 wRC+? We'll see. I don't have a confident opinion in favor of one side or another.
In the infield, the starters project to be Ryan Mountcastle at first base, Adam Frazier at second base, Jorge Mateo at shortstop, Gunnar Henderson at third base, and Adley Rutschman at catcher.
I really like Ryan Mountcastle. Another player who seemingly came out of nowhere, Mountcastle was a pretty good offensive player who was negatively impacted by the wall getting moved back in left field. Mountcastle projects to be an average to above average offensive performer, and about an average first baseman.
Adam Frazier is a decent player, a slap hitter with average defense, average run tool, and no power. Frazier hit .309 with a 113 wRC+ on 2021 split between the Pirates and the Padres, but struggled with a 81 wRC+ in 2022 with the Mariners. I do expect Frazier to bounce back from his dismal 2022 season, I don't expect much offensively, maybe 95-105 wRC+, but not amazing potential or upside. He's solid, that's it.
Jorge Mateo is a weird shortstop. Defensively, he's nasty, and his speed and base running is top notch, but he doesn't have a bat. Mateo's career high in wRC+ is 83, he strikes out 26-30% of the time, and doesn't walk. He'll have bursts of power, but he strikes out and struggles to make contact too much to the point when he's unable to maintain hot streaks. Mateo is a stopgap until the Orioles find someone better at the very least. I would personally be shocked if he started 2023 with the Orioles, and I would be pleased if he wasn't starting after the Trade Deadline because they traded for a better shortstop.
I'll save Gunnar Henderson for the farm system overview, so I'll move on to Adley Rutschman. The common pattern with the Orioles is that there's a lot of average players, offensively and pitching-wise, but that ends with Adley Rutschman, who is a top three catcher as of this moment. Personally, I do think that Adley Rutschman was a better prospect than Julio Rodriguez coming into 2022, and he lived up to expectations for me. Gold Glove caliber defense behind the dish with a plus arm, his defensive value is immense. Offensively, the ceiling is MVP-level. A certified 60-65 hit tool, plus power, and incredibly impressive plate discipline for a rookie, with a 13.8% walk rate that ranked 11th of all major leaguers, an 18.3% strikeout rate that's 4% below league average, his wRC+ finishing at 133. Adley Rutschman is a top thirty player in the league, and if he taps into his plus power more, that's a certified 6+ WAR player and a perennial MVP candidate. This is the guy. This is the kind of guy you build around. This is a star.
Offense (20-80 Scale): 53
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On the pitching side, there is genuine concern. Kyle Gibson, a 35 year old pitcher coming off a bad year, is their ace. I do think Gibson isn't bad, but he's a #4. Beyond that, it's Kyle Bradish, who's a #5, Dean Kramer, who's a #5, Tyler Wells shouldn't be in the rotation, and then there's two wild cards in DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez, who I strongly believe they should both start 2023 in the rotation. Grayson Rodriguez does not need conditioning in Triple A. He has nothing to prove in Triple A. DL Hall has nothing to prove in Triple A. Both are Top 100 Prospects who you need to build the weakest part of your team around.
Rotation (20-80 Scale): 44
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The bullpen is actually surprisingly good. I like Felix Bautista, I like Dillon Tate, I like Cionel Perez, I like Bryan Baker. We'll see with Mychel Givens. I'm more middle of the pack with the other guys who start in the bullpen, but they developed those four in 2023 and made them the focal point of the bullpen, which is typically a very healthy sign for an organization. If you can find and develop bullpen players one year, you can typically do it again.
Bullpen (20-80 Scale): 54
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THE FARM SYSTEM:
As of right now, the Orioles have a consensus top three farm system in the game, with, at least I believe, eight top 100 prospects: Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, Jackson Holliday, Colten Cowser, Jordan Westburg, DL Hall, Coby Mayo, and Heston Kjerstead.
Gunnar Henderson is the one player I didn't mention on the 2023 opening day roster, their projected third baseman. Gunnar Henderson, in my opinion, is my #1 prospect in MLB. A certified plus hit tool, plus power, plus speed, plus arm, and plus defense, I view Gunnar Henderson about as good of a prospect as Bobby Witt Jr. was entering 2022, maybe a touch worse, who I saw as the #3 prospect in 2022. Henderson flashes incredible athleticism and shocking speed for a guy who's getting 45-50 grades from public platforms. Henderson also flashed a top notch arm and raw defensive potential at three positions. While he's a plus third baseman, could he be an adequate shortstop, or an adequate second baseman? We'll see about that, but he has a decent chance of either of those working out. The ceiling with him is a bona fide star, and maybe there's a five tool player. Again, with Rutschman and Rodriguez, these are all star-level players you build around.
Grayson Rodriguez would have an excellent argument for #1 prospect in baseball if he hadn't gotten an oblique injury that wiped out three months from his 2022. Grayson Rodriguez has gotten legitimate comps to the likes of Gerrit Cole, with four pitches at least plus. His fastball projects as plus to double plus, his slider plus to double plus, his changeup plus to double plus, his curveball as plus, with premium command you simply don't find with this kind of stuff. To put it simply, Grayson Rodriguez is a raw, generational pitching talent, who's proved it at every level. There's zero reason to keep him in Triple A to begin the year with the Orioles' mediocre rotation pieces. Grayson Rodriguez has the ability to establish himself as a top pitcher in the league if given the choice by his team.
Jackson Holliday was the most recent #1 pick in the draft, a high school shortstop with incredible helium and upside, with strong bloodline connections to All-Star and borderline Hall of Famer Matt Holliday. Holliday's tools are hard to quantify at this point, but there's massive upside that comes with the fact that he likely won't make an impact at the major league level for at least three years.
Colton Cowser is a former top college performer, a real offensive force who's rocketed through the minors since his Drafting in 2021, reaching Triple A in 2022. Cowser was initially a hit-over-power outfielder with good tools across the board who turned into more of a power-over-hit guy in 2022, striking out 25% of the time, but hitting 19 HRs in 138 games. Overall, a very good prospect who probably moves to left or right field, where he projects to be average to above average defensively.
Jordan Westburg is a strong offensive performer with a low-ceiling, high floor projection. I view Westburg as a budget Gunnar Henderson, a certified infielder who splits time evenly between second base, third base, and shortstop. Westburg projects to be a solid offensive contributors, but doesn't scream "impact." Westburg flashed plus power and spent significant time at Triple A, which he succeeded in, though his hit tool may be squarely average.
DL Hall is an intriguing prospect, a small lefty arm with big stuff, whose ceiling projects as a strong #3, while his floor is a high-leverage reliever. DL Hall is a fairly divisive prospect who some label as a potential middle of the rotation starter, while others say that he's a multi inning or high-leverage reliever. I don't lean either way, but he pitched 13.2 innings in 2022, with a big fastball, big curveball, and intriguing changeup. His 5.93 ERA is contested by a 1.65 FIP, a 2.57 xERA, a 2.84 xFIP, a 29.7% K rate, and a 46.2% GB rate, though those numbers are from a small sample size where he pitched out of the bullpen most of the time. There is command concerns (5.1 BB/9 in the minors, 9.7% BB rate at majors), and injury concern, given how he's never pitched over 100 innings in a major league season, but if he's healthy, there's no reason not to start DL Hall in the rotation to the begin the year.
Coby Mayo is a high upside, low floor third base prospect who got people excited when he mashed in 2021 after getting drafted. While Mayo has big power and a big arm, the athleticism is below average, which may force him to first base in the future if it continues to trend downhill. Coby Mayo has maxed out at Double A, meaning I would personally be surprised if he made significant impact to the Orioles in 2022, also given that the Orioles have quite a lot of third base depth with Ramon Urias, Gunnar Henderson, and Jordan Westburg all in front of Mayo on the depth chart.
Heston Kjerstead is an intriguing outfield prospect. Selected #2 underslot in the 2020 draft, Kjerstead was projected to be a big power, high upside outfielder that would rush to the majors. However, Heston Kjerstead didn't play in 2020 due to the shortened COVID season, and suffering from myocarditis, a heart inflammation issue, he didn't begin playing until June 2022, and the Orioles want to take it slow with him, ease him back into earning back valuable development time. Kjerstead mashed in Single A, but struggled in a 43 game stint in High A, all of which shouldn't be taken too seriously. Kjerstead is at least a year and a half from the majors on the low end, and all now is being used for is regaining the time he lost.
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FARM SUMMARY:
To be frank, I believe this is the best farm system in the league, with an incredible mix of high-end talent, upper minors talent, outfielder, infielder, lefties, righties, and pitching talent.
When it comes to development, I'll admit it, I'm truly impressed. The Orioles' strategy of going under slot in the draft has certainly paid off. While the Orioles have had their success with their first round talents, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, and Coby Mayo are all prime examples of talent they've properly developed outside of the first round. The Orioles have the best position player prospect, and the best pitching prospect in the league, which, to be honest, is all they really need if the front office is open to augmenting the roster with major free agency upgrades, but the depth just provides more floor and more ceiling at the same time.
However, management of this depth and their prospects is where I could possibly see a disconnect between me and the front office. I project that Gunnar Henderson, DL Hall, Grayson Rodriguez, Colton Cowser, and Jordan Westburg will make impact at the major league level, unless any of them deal with significant injury. As of right now, though, I would start Henderson at third base, and start both DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez in the rotation, while giving Cowser and Westburg just a touch more developmental time in Triple A before getting called up in May or June. That being said, I'm not sure either DL Hall or Grayson Rodriguez start on the roster to being 2022, which would make me furious.
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HOW THEY CAN FAIL:
This is as good of a foundation as you can draw up, to put it simply. It's a better foundation than the Mariners had after 2021. The Orioles have a star at the major league level right now in Rutschman. The Orioles have literally no payroll on the books. The Orioles have waves set up to impact the majors right now. Now is the time to be aggressive, to start your guys, Hall and Rodriguez, in the rotation. Why not? This is your window! You have four pieces I consider significant enough to keep at their respective positions, Rutchsman (Catcher), Mullins (Center Field), Santander (Right Field), and Henderson (Third Base), with Cowser ready to supplant Hays in left field if necessary, and Westburg ready to man any of second base, third base, or shortstop.
These are your guys. This is your basis. This is what you rely on. This a perfect storm that can begin the creation of a true powerhouse. You have every tool at your disposal.
However, I'm deeply disturbed by a couple aspects of this plan. First, why haven't you tried to signed Rutschman to an extension? Now is the perfect time to do it. There's not concern about whether he'll succeed or not. He will. Where's the downside with a Rutschman extension?
Secondly, why are you playing passive in free agency? You have the second lowest payroll in baseball, only ahead of the pit of depression and endless famine that is the Oakland Athletics, and you've spent $140M+ in payroll in the past, which means that you're more than capable of spending $170M+ in payroll now. I don't want $170M in payroll in 2023. That would be rash. That being said, just raise it past $100M. Why weren't you aggressive with Carlos Rodon? Why weren't you aggressive with Chris Bassitt? Jose Quintana? Taijuan Walker? Jameson Taillon? Crying cheap isn't getting you any sympathy here.
Am I supposed to believe that you're satisfied with your rotation being a #4, three #5s, and a guy who shouldn't be pitching in a major league rotation in Tyler Wells? What are you really doing with an Adam Frazier signing? Why are you radio silent in the trade market? There's plenty of second base options on the trade market. Kolten Wong was available. Jorge Polanco is likely available. Both are better than Frazier, who got the same deal as Rich Hill, which would've been a significantly better signing than Frazier.
Why weren't you invested in the shortstop market more? Am I really supposed to believe that you were priced out of Dansby Swanson, a 2-3 WAR better option than Jorge Mateo? Hell, why not Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander? It's aggressive, but you have more than enough payroll space where that doesn't hurt you. Am I supposed to believe that your spending ability has DECREASED since 2018?
To put it bluntly, I love this Orioles team's future. I like the players who're at the major league level. I like their general development, from fringe starters to top prospects to relievers. That being said, I hate how this team is crying cheap, and how they're playing this incredibly passive. In my opinion, this shows that this front office isn't committed to winning in 2023. They're trying to see if this team's good before spending on it. That's the wrong way to go about it. You have your team. You have your system. You know your strengths, you know your weaknesses, and your weakness is clearly lying in offensive impact and the starting rotation. You do not need another average player in Adam Frazier. You need a guy who'll give you a 120 wRC+, or a #3's production in the rotation.
That being said, is the offseason over? No. Can they do more? Of course. Do I expect them to? "I'm not sure" is the unfortunate answer. I think this team has a wonderful foundation, but we'll see whether the front office wants that to blossom in 2023 or not.
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As Novidades do Dakar Rally 2024-UTVs
Challenger(T3) : Categoria dos UTVs Protótipos
Em grandes do novo modelo Taurus T3 Max Hybrid, entre os inscritos, o UTV , projetado em acordo com o programa de Off Road da Red Bull , com piloto americano Mitchell Guthrie , inclusive ganhado etapas na edição de 2023, que também terá na edição de 2024 como um dos pilotos a Cristina Guttierrez , além das duplas Brasileiras , Gunter Hinkelmann \Fabricio Bianchini ; e Marcelo Gastaldi\ Cadu Sachs , todas os modelos Taurus terão o apoio técnico da BBR Motorsport.
Toyota Hylux Proto T3 : modelo UTV do Arabe Khalif Aljafla, com bolha da Toyota Hylux que já participou da edição de 2023 , más infelizmente não terminou.
Can-am Factory Team: na última edição do Dakar em acordo com a Red Bull , na próxima edição com dois UTVs de fabrica , más a marca Canadense que é principal favorita na Challenger, por muitos modelos Maverick X3 inscritos como privados.
Over Drive OT3: O UTV, preparadopela Belga Over Drive Racing , que tem tido muito sucesso nós últimos anos nas provas de rally cross country e Baja que terminou em 3º lugar com Cristina Guttierrez em 2022 e com Guilherme de Mevius em 2023 , era duas entradas confirmadas , podendo ter uma terceira com uma dupla Argentina , sendo um dos pilotos o EX-piloto do WRC, Kris Meeke.
PH-Sport Zhephyr: O modelo preparado pela preparadora Francesaestar só com uma entrada na categoria com uma dupla Australiana.
Arcane : terá duas entradas da própria equipe Arcane Racing com o modelo Arcane T3.
SSV(T4) – A categoria com os UTVs de produção
Com varios modelos Can-am Maverick X3 , com entradas da equipe de fabrica da Can-am Factory Team e South Racing Can-am.
Algumas entradas na categoria com modelos Polaris RZR Pro R , com a Extreme Plus e com a Sebastien Loeb Racing.
Christine GZ , a pilota Italina fará sua estreia no Dakar rally , pilota com bastante experiência em rallys com UTVS e cross country , que esteve nas três temporadas da Extreme E (não regularmente) com as equipes Veloce Racing, Carl Cox Motorsport e Xite Energy Racing , estará no Dakar em dupla com o navegador Argentino Ricardo Torlaschini com Can-am Maverick X3 com a equipe TC Racing.
A pilota Americana Sara Price fará sua estreia no Dakar rally nos UTVs , a pilota que nos dois primeiros anos correu na Extreme E , na Hummer EV Chip Ganassi Racing, que ganhou a vaga para participar com a vitória nos UTVs na prova do regulamento Nacional (National) no rally Sonora no Mexico, estará em dupla com seu compatriota Jeremy Gray.
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Haec est apostasia, Latine significat errorem infantiae tuae sine uter, Ignarus veritatis ut pue ponere, Reformatio protestantismi non est religio. Ad Communionem vocati, Iustitiae crediti. Puer nuntium patris repetit nesciens quid sibi velit. Reformatio protestantismi non est religio, sed relatio erroneae informationis sine materno fonte: Christus natus est de muliere a Deo dilecta. Religio est quae ab Aegyptiis tamquam cultura definitur: in se in Islam in protestantismo religiones sunt, congregationes oecumenicae sunt.
OMS
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OMS
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Daardie
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Hoe
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Die WCRC word finansieel ondersteun deur lidbydraes van kerke en geloofsgebaseerde organisasies. Skenkings en toekennings word ook gemaak deur individue, gemeentes, stigtings en ander organisasies. WCRC-skenkers help om 'n verskil in die wêreld te maak deur fondse en spesifieke beursprogramme te skenk, sowel as die organisasie as geheel.
Puer nuntium patris repetit nesciens quid sibi velit. Reformatio protestantismi non est religio, sed relatio erroneae informationis sine materno fonte: Christus natus est de muliere a Deo dilecta.
Dr De Beer
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