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Recent conversation with a BTC Investor

This is a recent conversation I had with a Bitcoin investor.

Investor = In

In: So the Bitcoin price has been rather up and down lately.

Me: As one would expect.

In: Why would I expect that? What can’t the price ever be stable?

Me: Let me ask you a question. How often do you buy Bitcoin?

In: What do you mean “how often”? I already invested.

Me: So you allocated an amount you wanted to invest in Bitcoin, and now how often do you add to that position?

In: I don’t. I’m now just waiting for a good time to exit the position.

Me: As I thought. Now let me paint you a scenario. Let’s say that as of today everyone in the world who wants Bitcoin, buys it. They decide they will not sell, but they’re not going to add any more to their position, just like you. They’re dedicated investors, and lock their holdings away for at least 10 years. As of tomorrow, they’re not buying, selling, or trading, and no new investors will be coming in to the market. Now, tomorrow, what will happen to the price of Bitcoin?

In: Well, I guess it would just go sideways for a change. It would be stable.

Me: No. It would go to zero.

In: What? How on earth is that possible?

Me: The block subsidy.

In: What’s the block subsidy?

Me: You’ve heard of the term “blockchain” but you don’t really know what that is, right?

In: That’s pretty accurate.

Me: That’s fairly normal. Don’t feel bad. I’ll explain it to you briefly if you wish. But you’ll need to conduct more research to fully understand it.

In: Yes, ok please explain it.

Me: Every time a “block” of transactions gets added to the Bitcoin network, the miner who created that block is rewarded with the transaction fees of any transactions they include in the block, plus newly minted Bitcoins. As of today, that amount of new Bitcoins is 12.5. There is roughly one block every 10 minutes. So that means as of today there are 1800 new Bitcoins created each and every day.

In: Ok. So those miners just keep them I guess?

Me: No. They cannot. Mining is designed to be competitive. As more miners try to get those new Bitcoins, the energy required to get them increases, and thus the cost to get them increases. This keeps the number of new Bitcoins created each day consistent, regardless of how many people are competing to get the new Bitcoins and the transaction fees. And this phenomenon also keeps mining margins razor thin. Miners have a lot of expenses, in particular electricity and equipment costs, and so they’re forced to sell a large percentage of their mined Bitcoins to cover costs.

In: So you’re telling me that even if everyone just holds on to their Bitcoins today, tomorrow there’ll be another 1800 new coins that need to be bought?

Me: Correct. And the next day. And the next.

In: Far out. 1800 times $10,000 per coin… that’s like $18,000,000 worth per day.

Me: It’s a lot.

In: That is going to make Bitcoin worthless eventually.

Me: No. It’s not forever. Remember, the halving happens every four years.

In: What’s the halving?

Me: After every 210,000 blocks, the block subsidy gets abruptly cut in half. The subsidy began at 50 Bitcoins, then went to 25, and is now 12.5. It will be 6.25 in less than a year, and will keep halving about every 4 years until it eventually becomes zero.

In: Ok. That’s how we get the 21 million coins I’ve heard about.

Me: Yes. Slightly under that, but yes.

In: So it is very scarce, but there’s still going to be a lot dumped on the market between now and when it eventually runs out?

Me: In a nutshell, yes.

In: So what you’re alluding to is, even when all the investors are holding their Bitcoin investment, and not selling, unless there is new money coming in, the price of Bitcoin will be falling?

Me: Yes.

In: Ok answer me this. By extension, if the price is going sideways, would this actually be a bullish indicator because that means the market is soaking up all the new coins, right?

Me: You’re catching on.

In: Gee that’s very different to stocks and other investments.

Me: Few who invest in Bitcoin bother to learn about what it is they’ve purchased. Those who study it eventually reach an “aha” moment.

In: Yeah that’s what I feel I’m having now. So let me ask, why hasn’t the price gone to zero recently? I mean, 10 months or so ago it tanked, but it never actually reached zero. It only got down to about $3200.

Me: There are too many people who believe in Bitcoin long term, who are always waiting to grab a bargain.

In: Can you explain that a bit more?

Me: Alright. Take yourself by way of contrast. Say, you hope to buy Bitcoin at $8000 and sell at $16,000, and you would be extremely happy with that trade, am I right?

In: Damn straight! That would be awesome.

Me: Well, many people who invest in Bitcoin would NOT consider that a successful trade.

In: They’re idiots.

Me: They don’t measure profit in dollars.

In: You mean they measure it in yen or pounds?

Me: No. They measure it in Bitcoins.

In: Huh?

Me: They don’t have a goal of trying to get more dollars by trading Bitcoins. They’re trying to get more Bitcoins. They don’t see Bitcoin as merely a tool for speculation, but they see it as eventually being the world’s money, or at least the reserve money that everything else sits on top of.

In: That seems a little far fetched.

Me: Why is that far fetched?

In: I don’t really know, but if that was to happen you’d never want to sell your Bitcoins.

Me: Exactly.

In: So you’re saying there are investors who will never sell?

Me: Correct. And others who only sell when they’re pretty sure the price will fall enough so they can acquire even more Bitcoins once the price does fall.

In: Far out.

Me: Some of these people just regularly acquire Bitcoins each time they have some money. Others try to time the market. But their overall goal is to get more Bitcoins. Either way, this is why the price of Bitcoin has not gone to zero, despite 1800 coins being dumped on the market each day. Each one of these investors has a “wow that’s a bargain” price in their head, at which point they allocate more resources to acquiring Bitcoin.

In: So basically, if my goal was to get more Bitcoins, and I saw the price fall to say $4000, instead of being upset my investment was down, I’d see it as a great time to get more?

Me: Exactly. When the price goes up, it becomes harder to get more Bitcoins. In reality, everyone who owns Bitcoin wants the buying power of their coins to eventually rise, but many people have long term outlooks and so are in no rush for this to happen, and see the price declines as great opportunities.

In: Ok, let me back up and summarise what you’re saying. So if today all the investors said “I’ve got enough”, then tomorrow the price falls because there’s 1800 new coins trying to be sold by the miners. This will cause the price to fall, but then there’s a bunch of money waiting on the sidelines waiting to pick up a bargain, and when the price falls to the “that’s a bargain price” the buyers come and grab the coins.

Me: Yes.

In: I suppose the people rushing in to grab the bargain then cause others who are just speculators like me to rush in and buy because they see the price going up.

Me: That’s right. Naturally there’s a million reasons people might be selling their Bitcoins. Even the staunchest believers in the future of Bitcoin will still divest of some to acquire an income producing asset, or a home, or take advantage of an investment opportunity that presents itself. The calculation they do in their head is “will this asset produce or save me an amount that will allow me to re-acquire more Bitcoins than I parted with to get this asset?”

In: Right. Of course. Do these Bitcoin believers ever stop buying Bitcoin?

Me: Many of them. Not all. Many of them watch the market closely and take a break from buying when a mania hits. While floods of uninformed money comes piling in to Bitcoin, they just pause and wait for that to subside. Once it stops, the miners still have to sell their new coins each day, and the price inevitably falls. And those “believers” are ready with their savings to come in and get more Bitcoins.

In: Ahhh. So we’re going to see the price going up and down forever then.

Me: For the near term, it seems that way. But we don’t really know how it will play out long term when the block subsidy becomes a negligible component of miner’s incomes, relative to the transaction fees.

In: Ok. I’m already thinking differently about the price of Bitcoin. This is a lot to chew on.

In: So how do I know when is a good time to buy or sell?

Me: People who claim to know that are usually trying to sell you something, or they already have a position in the market and are trying to get everyone else to follow them. I suggest learning about how Bitcoin works under the hood as much as you can, and come up with your own thesis on when to buy or sell.

In: Yeah that makes sense. Thanks.

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BTC

1btc=$10763

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Bitcoin Prediction

There is, however, an overarching narrative of bitcoin going parabolic and breaking the previous all-time high (ATH) as the 2020 halving is now less than a year away.

Not only that, bitcoin as an asset has moved on from being a speculative playground to attracting massive interest from the likes of Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, and even Microsoft to mention a few.

You Probably Already Missed The Bitcoin Bottom

So, why would people prefer to come in at $80,000 per BTC rather than at $8,000 per BTC? It may have something to do with “herd mentality” as Binance research put it back in April 2019.

While retail FOMO remains low, the big-money players are gobbling up the lot. Between Grayscale and Jack Dorsey’s Cash App buying up a total of 31 percent of the BTC monthly supply, those on the sidelines may already be too late to the party. That is, if you were waiting for the bottom, which may have already came and went.

To put it in perspective, if bitcoin does hit $100,000 as some analysts predict, would it really matter if your entry is at $3K or $8K…or even $15K?

Whales Quietly Accumulating Bitcoin

Back in May 2019, Bitcoinist reported that only about 732,000 addresses hold more than 1 BTC. Whale wallets continue to play the market, accumulating coins with little or no outflows.

Only 636,813 more bitcoin will be mined before the next halvening.

Think that leaves plenty for you?

Think again.@CashApp is buying 10% of it.@GrayscaleInvest is buying 21% of it.

Rhythm (@Rhythmtrader) June 3, 2019

In other words, there are less than 636,000 more bitcoins left until the next halving. By the time FOMO sets in, it might be too late unless it happens at $10,000 as predicted by me

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The voice in your head knows all your secrets

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Reliability of how to trade forex with less than $1000 to earn more than $10,000 Forex is one of the most reliable online tradings methods. A number of investors are working on this platform to have a remarkable profit at the end of the mission. However, getting into the system by focusing on profit is a different strategy. So, the beginning level of the system is a somewhat complex task for the newcomers. But, after a certain period of training, they can get an idea on the real-time, the reliable investing amount and the future patterns of the trade. Hence, they can easily work on a winning path. It seems most of the investors are afraid to go for a huge amount of trades other than a few dollars. Actually, we cannot exactly say that there is no risk of investing more than a hundred dollars. That is why we decided to offer this info on the secrets of how to trade forex with $100.

Is it reliable goals to explore 6 steps on how to trade forex with 100 dollar

Trading to have big profit is not a reliable goal as the word sounds. But, if you use strategies as it, you can achieve your daily target of gaining more than five present of the profit from the investment amount.

Well, now we are going to invest $100 for the next trade. Keep in mind that we do not go to become a loser again. This is the ideal steps to have more than ten thousand dollars within about three months.

6 steps on how to trade forex with $100

1.Start to Invest your money

Once you deposit hundred dollars into your current forex account, you can start this journey.

2.The margin calculation takes place

This step is a battle of calculating hacks in between two leading financial units known as Euro or USD. Probably, we invest money using the USD. So, in order to take the final required marginal values, we must explore by going through Euros. 

You have to work on five micro lots and the marginal value of one present.  So, the final value may be around sixty dollars.

3.Now, calculate the margin that you have already used Bull run has officially Started you Pajjjets, binary options is a simple way any one can make money off the different financial markets and not just cryptocurrencies. Binary options involve making a prediction in the likely direction of movement if an underlying asset. As you may also know, binary options involve a level of risk and for this reason best left to professionals.

YOU CAN EARN $6,210 IN 7DAYS ALL YOU NEED DO IS REGISTER ON OUR PLATFORM AND RELY ON REPUTABLE TRADING SKILLS IN BINARY OPTION TRADING, BE WARRANTED PROFITS FROM YOUR INITIAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT WHILE OUR ORGANIZATION MAKES 10% AS CHARGES FROM YOUR PROFIT. WRITE BACK IF WILLING TO TRADE WITH US

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Hi

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HERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY OF MAKING OVER £550 WEEKLY.

Reliability of how to trade forex with $100 to earn more than $10000

Forex is one of the most reliable online tradings methods. A number of investors are working on this platform to have a remarkable profit at the end of the mission. However, getting into the system by focusing on profit is a different strategy. So, the beginning level of the system is a somewhat complex task for the newcomers. But, after a certain period of training, they can get an idea on the real-time, the reliable investing amount and the future patterns of the trade. Hence, they can easily work on a winning path. It seems most of the investors are afraid to go for a huge amount of trades other than a few dollars. Actually, we cannot exactly say that there is no risk of investing more than a hundred dollars. That is why we decided to offer this info on the secrets of how to trade forex with $100.

Is it reliable goals to explore 6 steps on how to trade forex with 100 dollar

Trading to have big profit is not a reliable goal as the word sounds. But, if you use strategies as it, you can achieve your daily target of gaining more than five present of the profit from the investment amount.

Well, now we are going to invest $100 for the next trade. Keep in mind that we do not go to become a loser again. This is the ideal steps to have more than ten thousand dollars within about three months.

6 steps on how to trade forex with $100

1.Start to Invest your money

Once you deposit hundred dollars into your current forex account, you can start this journey.

2.The margin calculation takes place

This step is a battle of calculating hacks in between two leading financial units known as Euro or USD. Probably, we invest money using the USD. So, in order to take the final required marginal values, we must explore by going through Euros. 

You have to work on five micro lots and the marginal value of one present.  So, the final value may be around sixty dollars.

3.Now, calculate the margin that you have already used Bull run has officially Started you Pajjjets, binary options is a simple way any one can make money off the different financial markets and not just cryptocurrencies. Binary options involve making a prediction in the likely direction of movement if an underlying asset. As you may also know, binary options involve a level of risk and for this reason best left to professionals.

YOU CAN EARN $6,210 IN 7DAYS ALL YOU NEED DO IS REGISTER ON OUR PLATFORM AND RELY ON REPUTABLE TRADING SKILLS IN BINARY OPTION TRADING, BE WARRANTED PROFITS FROM YOUR INITIAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT WHILE OUR ORGANIZATION MAKES 10% AS CHARGES FROM YOUR PROFIT. WRITE BACK IF WILLING TO TRADE WITH US