#Klobuchar is unexpected

[beardedmrbean]

Republican Sen. J.D. Vance received support from 10 Democrats as part of a successful amendment prohibiting the Department of Transportation from using any federal funds to enforce future mask mandates.

The amendment to the Senate minibus appropriations bill passed Wednesday by a 59-38 margin and prevents federal mask mandates on passenger airlines, commuter rail, rapid transit buses, and any other transportation program funded through the 2024 fiscal year.

These are the 10 Democrats who voted for the amendment: Tammy Baldwin (Wisconsin); Michael Bennet (Colorado); Sherrod Brown (Ohio); Tim Kaine (Virginia); Mark Kelly (Arizona); Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota); Joe Manchin (West Virginia); Jacky Rosen (Nevada); Jean Shaheen (New Hampshire); and Jon Tester (Montana).

Three senators—Democrats John Fetterman (Pennsylvania) and Alex Padilla (California), and Republican Tim Scott (South Carolina—did not vote. Of the three independent senators, Kyrsten Sinema (Arizona) was the only one to vote in favor.

"This is a massive victory for personal freedom in this country," Vance said in a post-vote statement. "We saw countless abuses of authority throughout the COVID pandemic, and the American people were justifiably enraged by unscientific mask mandates.

"Today, the United States Senate took an emphatic step toward common sense and individual liberty. I'm proud of what we've accomplished here and look forward to continuing the fight."

In September, Vance, who represents Ohio, introduced the Freedom to Breathe Act—a bill intended to prevent the reimposition of federal mask mandates across the entire United States, in response to some businesses and colleges and universities reimposing mask mandates in the summer due to upticks in COVID-19 cases.

In September, the Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center in Ohio announced that all staff will be required to wear masks on the premises beginning September 25.

"This decision was made to promote the safety of our patients, families, visitors, and employees, based on evidence that masks are effective in reducing the spread of respiratory illness," the hospital said in a statement.

A recent map published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) showed that, from October 8 to October 14, COVID-19 deaths increased just 2.5 percent nationally when compared to the previous week. Some states, including Ohio's neighbor Michigan, with a 33.3 percent rise, reported much larger increases.

Vance said prior to the vote on the Senate floor that while COVID will unfortunately be with Americans for likely the rest of their lives, its presence should not constitute "public health panic" for a respiratory virus which is mostly unable to be stopped or controlled on a widespread level.

He alluded to altercations on flights between passengers and flight attendants during the height of the pandemic due to mask enforcement. Vance also mentioned the developmental delays to schoolchildren and division that resulted among American families. "If people want to wear masks, of course they should be able to," he said. "But if people don't want to wear masks on airplanes, on transit, they should have that option as well, and that's all that my amendment does.

"It is narrowly scoped. It applies for the next 11 months and applies to transportation cases. And I think it is reasonable to not ask the American people to reenter the era of mask mandates."

Brown, who along with Vance represents Ohio, told Cleveland.com that he supported the amendment because "the pandemic's over."

"I've got no problems with it," Brown said. "I don't think there should be mask mandates."

A spokesperson for Brown told Newsweek the senator had no additional comment.

Newsweek reached out via email to Vance, the other nine Democrats who voted for the amendment, and the CDC for comment.

[territri]

I cannot get into the echo chanber strike

Biden in the 2020 primary: Senators Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Cory Booker of New Jersey Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Beto O’Rourke, the former congressman who is now running for Texas governor, among others. These Democrats mentioned a host of other figures who lost to Mr. He looks his age and isn’t as agile in front of a camera as he once was, and this has fed a narrative about competence that isn’t rooted in reality.” “And part of the reason he doesn’t is performative. “Biden doesn’t get the credit he deserves for steering the country through the worst of the pandemic, passing historic legislation, pulling the NATO alliance together against Russian aggression and restoring decency and decorum to the White House,” Mr. “The presidency is a monstrously taxing job and the stark reality is the president would be closer to 90 than 80 at the end of a second term, and that would be a major issue,” said David Axelrod, the chief strategist for Barack Obama’s two winning presidential campaigns. They have watched as a commander in chief who built a reputation for gaffes has repeatedly rattled global diplomacy with unexpected remarks that were later walked back by his White House staff, and as he has sat for fewer interviews than any of his recent predecessors. To nearly all the Democrats interviewed, the president’s age - 79 now, 82 by the time the winner of the 2024 election is inaugurated - is a deep concern about his political viability. Trump from office.īut the repeated failures of his administration to pass big-ticket legislation on signature Democratic issues, as well as his halting efforts to use the bully pulpit of the White House to move public opinion, have left the president with sagging approval ratings and a party that, as much as anything, seems to feel sorry for him. Biden, to whom they are universally grateful for ousting Mr. Biden’s future, and no one interviewed expressed any ill will toward Mr. Most top elected Democrats were reluctant to speak on the record about Mr. Biden faces a tumultuous two years of a Republican-led House obstructing and investigating him. If the party cannot, it may miss its final opportunity to hold Mr. Biden and his party, the hearings’ vivid reminder of the Trump-inspired mob violence represents perhaps the last, best chance before the midterms to break through with persuadable swing voters who have been more focused on inflation and gas prices. Trump, whose lies fueled a riot that disrupted the peaceful transfer of power, may well seek to return to the White House.įor Mr. 6 attack on the Capitol made clear the stakes of a 2024 presidential election in which Mr. Democrats’ concerns come as the opening hearing of the House committee investigating the Jan.

[afloweroutofstone]

Where I am right now:

Ideal: Sanders

98% Ideal: Warren

Unexpected, but you know what I’ll take it: Castro, Inslee

Alright, fine, whatever: De Blasio, Buttigieg, Gillibrand, Harris, Moulton, O’Rourke

Don’t much care for them but it would be an extremely entertaining election: Yang, Williamson, Gabbard

Really? Why?: Klobuchar, Messam, Ryan, Sestak, Steyer

No: Bennet, Biden, Booker, Bullock, Delaney, Hickenlooper

[bustedbernie]

Who would you vote for (or recommend voting for) if you were voting now or on ST?

For my state, I think a vote for anyone but Biden would be irresponsible, Biden and Sanders are neck and neck here. Or were, in the one poll done here ha. But I think that assessment is true in many other states as well. Pete would maybe be my preferred candidate otherwise, but I couldn’t vote for him knowing how tight it is between Biden and Sanders and I think Sanders is such a big threat that I’m not really into “following my heart.” Plus, Pete isn’t anywhere close to being viable here (no one but Sanders and Biden are in NM). So, I def recommend people vote for Biden, and if not, look at the polling aggregates of your state and make sure your vote is at least strategic against Sanders. Like, if you live in MA, a vote for Warren might be okay because you’d be helping deny Sanders delegates. But a Warren vote in my state of New Mexico wouldn’t really mean anything. I think she’s below the delegate threshold everywhere, so that vote HERE would just help Sanders (in my view). But you should still do what you want. But yeah, a Sanders vote to me is a vote for Trump, so I’d rather just vote strategically against them, and Biden is still performing the best against Trump as well. And all that said, I agree with Nate Silver’s assessment that the folks not named Biden, Bloomberg or Sanders have almost no chance at this point, unfortunately for many. For me, I like Biden just as much as Pete so it’s not really something I have a heart ache about, but I also understand folks who really want to support their guy/gal. I know if I did the “vote my heart” thing for real I’d just write in Kamala. So… Yeah I guess that’s what I’d recommend? Be strategic and know that Biden/Warren/Buttigieg/Klobuchar are all good candidates but only one of them can win, and only one of them in this list seems to have a chance unless some giant, unexpected thing happens in SC. 

[lukemeintheeye]

On Tuesday night, 12 candidates crammed on to the stage at Ohio’s Otterbein University. It was the first time that so many Democratic presidential hopefuls have shared the same stage on one night.

But the attention was almost all focused on one candidate, the Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren, who has emerged as the frontrunner after a slow and steady rise in her support, and who has crystallized her position in recent months as the party’s intellectual and ideological center of gravity. Questions were framed around her policy positions, her past statements, her agenda; other candidates staked their claim to positions almost exclusively in relation to where Warren stands.

Even on the rare occasions when Warren was not speaking, not directly being spoken to, and not being spoken about, her dominance hung over the conversation, making itself known in unexpected moments. At one point, a moderator, CNN’s Anderson Cooper, addressed another contender – the Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar – by Warren’s name. Klobuchar smiled and graciously deflected, but within minutes, she was bringing up Warren herself.

Warren’s new dominance reflects not only her slow but dramatic rise in the polls, where she is now besting the longtime establishment favorite, Joe Biden, but also a renewed Democratic political landscape in the wake of the opening of an impeachment inquiry against Trump in the House of Representatives. At the debate, the impeachment proceedings provided a brief opportunity for unity among the ideologically divided candidates, with a softball opening question about the inquiry providing all of them an opportunity to voice their distaste for Trump. But the unity ended there. From that point on, half of the stage dedicated themselves to the project of attempting to discredit Warren.

[triviallytrue]

I kinda want the Cuomo-Biden swap to happen, if only for how mad it’ll make Buttigieg and Klobuchar. Imagine axing your primary campaign after months of hard work, cutthroat competition, and unexpected success to push the corpse of Joe Biden over the finish line, only for some rando who didn’t even run a campaign to get the nomination because your party elites are too incompetent to coalesce behind a candidate without dementia the first time around

[mariacallous]

I have friends who’ve been working on campaigns in Iowa and in Minnesota and who’ve been around Klobuchar and...she really resonates with a lot of people in ways that are a bit unexpected. She’s also incredibly popular in Minnesota and dominates the party here, and is staggeringly successful in elections (like she legitimately has had the majority of votes in almost every county when she’s on the ballot, and she tends to boost turnout and downticket support, and can fundraise like mad).

She’s not gonna play well in Berkeley or Brooklyn (for the most part that is) but she’s also dogged and that’s why she’s managed to stay in the race this long - never dropping too low or rising too high in the polls.

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Another passenger has boarded the S.S. Winnow: On Thursday, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper announced he was dropping out of the race for president.

Many of the problems we identified with Hickenlooper’s campaign when he first entered the race ended up coming true. He lacked a geographic or demographic base, and he proved unable to stand out from a flashier field of candidates. Despite hopes that he would make some noise in the debates, he didn’t make a positive impression in the first and spoke less than any other candidate in the second.

The result: Hickenlooper never found his footing among actual voters. When he dropped out of the race, a majority of Democrats (56 percent) still did not have an opinion of him, according to a FiveThirtyEight average of August polls. But even if Hickenlooper had more successfully gotten his name out there, he just wasn’t what voters were looking for. Even in Colorado, where he is well-known and well-liked among Democrats,1 Hickenlooper received just 7 percent of the vote in a Public Policy Polling survey of the presidential primary. Nationally, he never wound up exceeding 2 percent in any poll:

Hickenlooper’s campaign had been struggling for months, so this wasn’t an unexpected announcement. In early July, six of his top staffers left the campaign after urging him to drop out and run for U.S. Senate in Colorado instead. There was so little grassroots appetite for his candidacy that, four months into his campaign, he had reportedly amassed only 13,000 individual donors (one-tenth of the required number to qualify for the September debate). At the time, an anonymous source said staff told Hicklenlooper his campaign was on pace to run out of money by the end of August, so it’s possible Hickenlooper simply could not afford to continue his campaign.

Hickenlooper’s failure is notable because, as a two-term governor of a swing state, he had a great traditional résumé for a presidential candidate; it’s fair to think that if he had run in, say, 1992, he might very well have become the nominee (or at least made more of a showing). But Hickenlooper’s fate is another data point suggesting we can throw some of those old priors out the window. Nowadays, it appears more important to many Democratic primary voters that a presidential candidate either has revolutionary ideas, better represents the diversity of the party or both. And former Vice President Joe Biden, perhaps the only candidate with better traditional credentials than Hickenlooper, is sucking up all the oxygen among the remainder of the electorate.

Indeed, it’s notable that the candidates to qualify for the September debate so far are Biden and then an array of boundary-breaking candidates — three women (Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar), three people of color (Harris, Sen. Cory Booker and Andrew Yang) and a gay man (Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana). Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke are the exceptions, but even they have the novelty of democratic socialism and youth, respectively, on their side. The race’s many straight, moderate and/or older white men look likely to be culled from the debate stage, and we expect some to join Hickenlooper in bowing out of the race. (Of course, we’ll have to wait and see — perhaps some will break out of the pack.)

The other notable thing about Hickenlooper’s departure from presidential politics is the question of what he does next. Many hope he’ll challenge Republican Sen. Cory Gardner back home in Colorado. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has reportedly met with Hickenlooper repeatedly to pressure him into running, and Hickenlooper said in his drop-out video that he will give it “some serious thought.”

But with about a dozen Democrats already running in that race, others believe his presidential dalliance has cost him a clear shot at a Senate nomination that would otherwise have been his for the taking. I agree to a point — it is far from certain that they will all drop out in deference to Hickenlooper. In fact, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff said on Thursday he would not do so. In addition, former state Sen. Mike Johnston has raised more in total contributions for his Senate campaign ($3.4 million) than Hickenlooper did for his presidential campaign ($3.2 million)!2 And both Johnston and former diplomat Dan Baer had more cash on hand than Hickenlooper at the end of last quarter, so those two can also probably afford to stand and fight if they want to.

On the other hand, I still think Hickenlooper would be strongly favored to win the nomination. His fundraising would almost surely pick up (and his rivals’ would dry up) if he sets his sights a little lower. And two hypothetical polls of the race have given Hickenlooper huge leads. The same PPP poll that showed Hickenlooper at 7 percent in the presidential primary put him at 44 percent in the Senate primary, followed by Romanoff at 12 percent. (None of the six other candidates included in the survey received more than 4 percent.) And a more recent poll from Garin-Hart-Yang put Hickenlooper at 61 percent, Johnston at 10 percent and Romanoff at 8 percent. One caveat: Both polls were sponsored by unknown Democratic organizations, and they may have a vested interest in tempting Hickenlooper to run for Senate.

That’s because Hickenlooper is widely seen as Democrats’ strongest possible general-election candidate, and Colorado is virtually a must-win for Democrats if they want to take back control of the Senate. According to the Garin-Hart-Yang poll, 61 percent of Democrats think Hickenlooper has the best chance of defeating Gardner in the general election. (Most respondents said electability was more important than ideology in determining their primary vote — so, ironically, Hickenlooper could end up essentially becoming the Biden of the Colorado Senate field.)

There are reasons to think Hickenlooper would present a particularly strong challenge to Gardner. He’s already won two statewide elections in Colorado — and in tough years for Democrats (2010 and 2014) to boot. And another PPP poll, conducted just last weekend, gave Hickenlooper a strong 13-point lead over Gardner.

But personally, I’m not convinced. Just as early polls of the presidential general election can readily be dismissed, I don’t think that PPP poll shows us much beyond name recognition. Plus, that poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which definitely has a vested interest in tempting Hickenlooper to run for Senate (314 Action is a group that promotes scientists running for office; Hickenlooper is a former geologist).

Additionally, Hickenlooper is on record saying he doesn’t want to be a senator. He has said, “I’m not cut out to be a senator” and “I don’t think that’s my calling.” There is even video of him saying “the Senate doesn’t attract me” and “if the Senate’s so good, how come all those senators are trying to get out?” I would expect to see those clips show up in an attack ad or two.

Finally, in a presidential year, I’m just not sure any Democrat would perform that much better than another. In this era of partisanship über alles, Senate races track very closely with the presidential results in their states. Gardner’s fate probably hinges on how closely associated he is with President Trump, and Trump’s standing come Election Day, more than on the quality of his opponent.

[cksmart-world]

SMART BOMB

The completely unnecessary news analysis

by Christopher Smart

May 10, 2022

EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED

The 80-to-1 long shot Rich Strike won the 148th running of the Kentucky Derby, coming from behind in one of the greatest victories in horse racing history. That was cool but not every unexpected thing in our crazy world turns out so well. Case in point, the 2016 election of Donald J. Trump. And let's not forget the Jan. 6 insurrection. The staff here at Smart Bomb has catalogued potential unexpected stuff so you can be prepared:

- Utah State Liquor Stores sell cold beer.

- Utah Congressman Burgess Owens disappears.

- Salt Lake City disallows ugly apartment buildings.

- Gov. Spencer Cox gets tough with Utah lawmakers.

- Majorie Taylor Greene blows kisses to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

- Mormons drop July 24 Pioneer Day in favor of July 4th celebration.

- Utah restricts abortion in dairy cows.

- Vladimir Putin diagnosed with swagger-induced seasickness.

- President Joe Biden calls MAGA people, “crazy snot-nosed imps.”

- And Tucker Carlson spotted in drag at Pussy Riot concert.

STAMPING OUT YOUNG SHELDON AND OTHER EVILS

OMG — do you know what is happening? Well, it's them progressive TV producers, that's what. Thank goodness for our beloved Sen. Mike Lee for alerting the free world to the fact that TV is turning our children into sexual deviants. Just look at this: “To the detriment of children, gender dysphoria has become sensationalized in the popular media and television with radical activists and entertainment companies,” according to a letter Lee signed with other righteous right-wingers seeking reelection by shaking the sex boogeyman at panicked parents. “This radical and sexual sensation not only harms children, but also destabilizes and damages parental rights.” What could possibly be worse? It's them liberal commies behind this movement to make kids weird. They're “grooming” youngsters to be like Caligula and Pee-Wee Herman — “[T]he motivations of hyper-sexualized entertainment producers striving to push content on young audiences are suspect at best and predatory at worst.” GROOMERS! And it's more than just Disney, who now has Mickey Mouse and Goofy wearing women's lingerie. No, it's subversive TV shows, like “It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia,” “Bob's Burgers,” and “Young Sheldon.” We must stamp out this evil. Send contributions to Mike for Senate.

ROE V. WADE AND KING KONG

The news is bad, but then again it usually is. This time, it's Trump Supreme Court nominees, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, whose confirmation testimony now looks to be a tiny bit disingenuous — as in friggin' lies. But that's OK, because Supreme Court nominees are supposed to fib a little — that's just the way we do things. Neil Gorsuch told the Senate Judiciary Committee that he “would have walked out the door,” if Trump had asked him to overturn Roe V. Wade. But sources report Gorsuch has not walked out the door but remains barricaded under his desk waiting for the nasty protesters to leave. Kavanaugh conceded he liked beer, which appeared to be true and spoke well of his “judicial temperament.” Then he started yelling at Sen. Amy Klobuchar because he never did bad stuff to young women, but if they needed an abortion afterward it was OK with him. And Amy Coney Barrett testified that just because she is a Catholic mother of seven doesn't mean squat, nor did the ad she signed calling Roe V. Wade “barbaric” — like King Kong when he carried Faye Wray to the top of the Empire State Building. Yes, it's a non sequitur but what do you expect from people who would protect the unborn while ignoring single moms and their hungry kids.

Post script — That's a wrap for another week here at Smart Bomb, where we keep track of contraception in Mississippi so you don't have to. Yep, Gov. Tate Reeves said he wouldn't rule out banning contraceptives if Roe V. Wade remains on the books. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot — or wherever. How in the world could they enforce a ban on rubbers, anyway? BTW, you can get legal abortions in Mexico and Ireland, two of the most Catholic countries in the world. And yes, abortion is legal in Italy, too. Then, there's this: Utah has a so-called “trigger law” that says if the Supreme Court reverses Row V. Wade, abortion will immediately become illegal with no exception for rape or incest. Say no more. OK, Reality Check — 66 million years ago a giant asteroid — a ten-mile long space rock — struck the Yucatan Peninsula and killed off the dinosaurs along with 75 percent of life on earth. That, of course, blows holes in the literal reading of The Old Testament, but we digress. New fossil evidence in North Dakota reveals the impact of the collision 3,000 miles away. “The Dinosaur Apocalypse: The New Evidence,” is streaming on PBS. Millions of years from now — barring another asteroid — someone might dig us up and wonder why the hell we were so damn hard on each other.

Alright Wilson, we know you and the guys in the band have stocked up on condoms and saltpeter. Sources say Amazon has had a lot of orders from Mississippi. Not so much from Utah, though, 'cause we don't have sex or teenage pregnancy here. So take us on outa here with something for those unwilling brides who need legal medical care.

Oh it's so funny to be seeing you after so long, girl. And with the way you look I understand that you are not impressed. But I heard you let that little friend of mine take off your party dress. I'm not going to get too sentimental like those other sticky valentines, 'cause I don't know if you've been loving somebody. I only know it isn't mine. Alison, I know this world is killing you. Oh, Alison, my aim is true. Well I see you've got a husband now. Did he leave your pretty fingers lying in the wedding cake? You used to hold him right in your hand. I'll bet he took all he could take. Sometimes I wish that I could stop you from talking when I hear the silly things that you say. I think somebody better put out the big light, cause I can't stand to see you this way.

Alison, I know this world is killing you. Oh, Alison, my aim is true. My aim is true.

(Alison — Elvis Costello)

[potusburg]

POTUS 2020

We’ve been fantasizing about the identity of the next President almost since the inauguration of the present one.  Conducting a friendly POTUS 2020 prediction dinner party auction competition amongst friends provided an opportunity to indulge our fantasies.

The rules of the game:

Each participant has $20 to spend, in increments of $0.25, auction-style.  The winning participant will be the one whose group of candidates collectively has the most points after the November 2020 Presidential election.  Points will be awarded as follows:

500 points to the owner who “buys” the candidate with the most electoral votes in 2020.

250 points to the owner who “buys” the candidate with the second most electoral votes in 2020.

100 points to the owner who “buys” any other candidate who receives at least one electoral vote, but does not come in first or second.

200 points to the owner who "buys" the candidate selected to be vice president by the winning Presidential candidate.

100 points to the owner who "buys" the candidate selected to be vice president by the Presidential candidate with the second most electoral votes.

50 points to the owner who "buys" a candidate who is invited and actually appears in a nationally-televised Presidential (not vice-presidential) debate hosted and/or aired live by CNN or NBC; provided, however, that (1) no candidate may receive more than 50 points for participation in debates, and (2) no candidate who subsequently receives any electoral votes may receive any points for having appeared in a debate.  

Participants shall each nominate candidates and include with such nomination at least a $0.25 bid, until such time as no participant wishes, or is able, to make any further nominations, or no participant has any money left.  The participant who bids the most on any nominated candidate “wins” that candidate.  The “Presidential Field” and the "Vice Presidential Field" shall each be recognized candidates, and shall include all people in the world who are not otherwise “bought” by another participant.  In order for either Field to earn points, a person not otherwise “bought” during the auction MUST WIN the Presidency or Vice Presidency.  No points will be awarded to the Field for debates, electoral votes, or second-place. 

If you find yourself confused by the rules outlined above -- fear not -- most of last night’s participants were as well, and their confusion did not seem to adversely affect their enjoyment of the auction.  Despite the byzantine and wholly arbitrary rules, and the fact that the winner won’t be determined for nearly two years, seven intrepid dinner party attendees took the plunge.  Here are the results:

ANTHONY:  Bernie Sanders (8.25), John Kasich (2.75), Sherrod Brown (2.00), Adam Schiff (0.75), Mark Cuban (0.75), Tom Steyer (0.50), Ted Cruz (0.50), Chuck Schumer (0.50), Julian Castro (0.50), Jay Inslee (0.25), Lincoln Chaffee (0.25), Mitch Landrieu (0.25), Jason Kander (0.25), Pete Buttigieg (0.25), Tim Ryan (0.25), Jeff Merkley (0.25), Seth Moulton (0.25), Martin O’Malley (0.25), Howard Schultz (0.25), Eric Swalwell (0.25)

CHU:  Kamala Harris (7.25), Andrew Cuomo (4.75), John Hickenlooper (2.75), Condoleeza Rice (1.25), Hillary Clinton (1.00), Gavin Newsom (1.00), Paul Ryan (0.75), Michael Avenatti (0.75), Stephen Colbert (0.25)

FOX:  Beto O’Rourke (6.50), Elizabeth Warren (5.75), Eric Holder (3.25), Jerry Brown (1.50), John Delaney (0.75), Elon Musk (0.75), Andrew Gillum (0.25), Ellen DeGeneres (0.25)

KIRK:  Kristen Gillibrand (7.00), Joe Biden (7.00), Cory Booker (5.75), Dwayne “the Rock” Johnson (0.25)

LEE:  Donald Trump (11.00), Deval Patrick (2.50), Amy Klobuchar (2.50), Tulsi Gabbert (1.75), Michelle Obama (1.25), Sarah Palin (0.50), Kanye West (0.50)

SABO:  PRESIDENTIAL FIELD (7.00), Mike Pence (5.50), Bill de Blasio (1.75), Michael Bloomberg (1.75), Mitt Romney (0.75), Oprah Winfrey (0.75), Bob Corker (0.75), Jeff Flake (0.50), Tim Kaine (0.50), Ben Sasse (0.25), Maggie Hassan (0.25), Jamie Dimon (0.25)

SIEVERS:  VICE PRESIDENTIAL FIELD (8.75), Eric Garcetti (2.25), Terry McAuliffe (1.75), John Kerry (1.00), Steve Bullock (1.00), Marco Rubio (0.75), Roy Cooper (0.75), Nikki Haley (0.50), Joe Kennedy III (0.50), Mark Zuckerberg (0.50), Chris Murphy (0.50), Rudy Giuliani (0.50), Ben Casey (0.50), Luis Gutierrez (0.25), Jeff Bezos (0.25), Bruce Springsteen (0.25)

My team didn’t come together as planned.  Mistakes were made, opportunities were missed.  I blame the Sierra Nevadas (a common refrain of mine recently) and the unexpected skill of my competitors.  Women are turning out to vote in record numbers.  Last November brought record numbers of women candidates, many (most?) of whom won.  The chances of a woman becoming president in 2020 are quite good, and yet a survey of my team’s roster the morning after the auction reveals no women, while everyone else has at least one.  FeeltheBern I guess?  Looks like I won’t be banishing this t-shirt to the rag bag for at least another two years.

--RFA

[thepoliticalpatient]

Daily Graham-Cassidy Update, 9/25

Susan Collins (R-ME) is now, finally, officially a no. With 3 declared ‘no’ votes, this bill may be dead unless some body flip-flops. The bill has been updated to throw more money at the states with ‘no’ voting senators so we’ll have to watch and see if anyone takes the bait. If somebody does flip we can still hope for a no from Lisa Murkowski (R-AK).

The Senate hearing was today and you can watch it on C-SPAN. I admit I didn’t have the spoons to watch all 5 hours, but I didn’t hear anything unexpected in the first 1.5 hour that I did watch. Graham and Cassidy touted their bill as a way to add further “flexibility” to states (flexibility to fuck sick people I guess). Senator Mazie Hirono (D-HI), who has stage 4 kidney cancer, gave an excellent statement calling for compassion. ADAPT protestors, bless them, showed up again and interrupted proceedings for about 15 minutes shouting “No cuts to Medicaid, save our liberty” until they were hauled out by police. Several dragged from wheelchairs again.

Reminder that the Graham/Cassidy vs. Sanders/Klobuchar debate is tonight on CNN. Here are some ways to watch, though it’s not accessible to everyone. I’ll blog about it, of course.

The CBO has already stated that they won’t have time to properly analyze the bill before September 30, but they did say today that there would be a $133B reduction in the deficit and “millions fewer” insured under Graham-Cassidy. Previous bills to repeal the ACA have been estimated to reduce the number of insured by around 22 million.

That’s all I’ve got for today until after the debate.

[politicoscope]

Elizabeth Warren Who Electrified Progressives, Drops Out of Democratic Presidential Race: Here's Why

New Post has been published on https://www.politicoscope.com/elizabeth-warren-who-electrified-progressives-drops-out-of-democratic-presidential-race-heres-why/

Elizabeth Warren Who Electrified Progressives, Drops Out of Democratic Presidential Race: Here's Why

Elizabeth Warren, who electrified progressives with her “plan for everything” and strong message of economic populism, dropped out of the Democratic presidential race on Thursday, according to a person familiar with her plans. The exit came days after the onetime front-runner couldn’t win a single Super Tuesday state, not even her own. The Massachusetts senator has spoken with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden, the leading candidates in the race, according to their campaigns. She is assessing who would best uphold her agenda, according to another person who requested anonymity to discuss private conversations.

Elizabeth Warren Exit

Elizabeth Warren’s exit all but extinguished hopes that Democrats would get another try at putting a female nominee up against President Donald Trump.

For much of the past year, her campaign had all the markers of success, robust poll numbers, impressive fundraising and a sprawling political infrastructure that featured staffers on the ground across the country. She was squeezed out, though, by Sanders, who had an immovable base of voters she needed to advance.

Elizabeth Warren never finished higher than third

Warren never finished higher than third in the first four states and was routed on Super Tuesday, failing to win any of the 14 states voting and placing an embarrassing third in Massachusetts, behind Biden and Sanders.

Tulsi Gabbard

Her exit from the race following Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s departure leaves the Democratic field with just one female candidate: Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who has collected only one delegate toward the nomination. It was an unexpected twist for a party that had used the votes and energy of women to retake control of the House, primarily with female candidates, just two years ago.

Elizabeth Warren Enormous Promise

Warren’s campaign began with enormous promise that she could carry that momentum into the presidential race. Last summer, she drew tens of thousands of supporters to Manhattan’s Washington Square Park, a scene that was repeated in places like Washington state and Minnesota.

Elizabeth Warren compelling message

She had a compelling message, calling for “structural change” to the American political system to reorder the nation’s economy in the name of fairness. She had a signature populist proposal for a 2% wealth tax she wanted to impose on households worth more than $50 million that prompted chants of “Two cents! Two cents!” at rallies across the country.

Warren, 70, began her White House bid polling near the back of an impossibly crowded field, used wonky policy prowess to rocket to front-runner status by the fall, then saw her support evaporate almost as quickly.

Elizabeth Warren candidacy appeared seriously damaged

Her candidacy appeared seriously damaged almost before it started after she released a DNA test in response to goading by Trump to prove she had Native American ancestry. Instead of quieting critics who had questioned her claims, however, the test offended many tribal leaders who rejected undergoing the genetic test as culturally insensitive, and it didn’t stop Trump and other Republicans from gleefully deriding her as “Pocahontas.”

Elizabeth Warren lost her finance director

Warren also lost her finance director over her refusal to attend large fundraisers, long considered the financial life blood of national campaigns. Still, she distinguished herself by releasing dozens of detailed proposals on all sorts of policies from cancelling college debt to protecting oceans to containing the coronavirus. Warren also was able to build an impressive campaign war chest relying on mostly small donations that poured in from across the country — erasing the deficit created by refusing to court big, traditional donors.

As her polling began improving through the summer. Warren appeared to further hit her stride as she hammered the idea that more moderate Democratic candidates, including Biden, weren’t ambitious enough to roll back Trump’s policies and were too reliant on political consultants and fickle polling. And she drew strength in the #MeToo era, especially after a wave of female candidates helped Democrats take control of the U.S. House in 2018.

Elizabeth Warren couldn’t consolidate the support of the Democratic Party’s most liberal wing

But Warren couldn’t consolidate the support of the Democratic Party’s most liberal wing against the race’s other top progressive, Sanders. Both supported universal, government-sponsored health care under a “Medicare for All” program, tuition-free public college and aggressive climate change fighting measures as part of the “Green New Deal” while forgoing big fundraisers in favor of small donations fueled by the internet.

Elizabeth Warren poll numbers began to slip

Warren’s poll numbers began to slip after a series of debates when she repeatedly refused to answer direct questions about if she’d have to raise taxes on the middle class to pay for Medicare for All. Her top advisers were slow to catch on that not providing more details looked to voters like a major oversight for a candidate who proudly had so many other policy plans.

When Warren finally moved to correct the problem, her support eroded further. She moved away from a full endorsement of Medicare for All, announcing that she’d work with Congress to transition the country to the program over three years. In the meantime, she said, many Americans could “choose” to remain with their current, private health insurance plans, which most people have through their employers. Biden and other rivals pounced, calling Warren a flip-flopper, and her standing with progressives sagged.

Bernie Sanders Effects

Sanders, meanwhile, wasted little time capitalizing on the contrast by boasting that he would ship a full Medicare for All program for congressional approval during his first week in the White House. After long avoiding direct conflict, Warren and Sanders clashed in January after she said Sanders had suggested during a private meeting in 2018 that a woman couldn’t win the White House. Sanders denied that, and Warren refused to shake his outstretched hand after a debate in Iowa.

Leaning hard into the gender issue only saw Warren’s support sink further heading into Iowa’s leadoff caucus, however. But even as her momentum was slipping away, Warren still boasted impressive campaign infrastructure in that state and well beyond. Her army of volunteers and staffers looked so formidable that even other presidential candidates were envious.

Elizabeth Warren Just Before Iowa

Just before Iowa, her campaign released a memo detailing its 1,000-plus staffers nationwide and pledging a long-haul strategy that would lead to victories in the primary and the general election. Bracing for a poor finish in New Hampshire, her campaign issued another memo again urging supporters to stay focus on the long game — but also expressly spelling out the weaknesses of Sanders, Biden and Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, in ways the senator herself rarely did.

Mike Bloomberg Effects

Warren got a foil for all of her opposition to powerful billionaires when former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg entered the race. During a debate in Las Vegas just before Nevada’s caucus, Warren hammered Bloomberg and the mayor’s lackluster response touched off events that ended with him leaving the race on Wednesday.

For Warren, That led to a sharp rise in fundraising, but didn’t translate to electoral success. She tried to stress her ability to unite the fractured Democratic party, but that message fell flat.

By South Carolina, an outside political group began pouring more than $11 million into TV advertising on Warren’s behalf, forcing her to say that, although she rejected super PACs, she’d accept their help as long as other candidates did. Her campaign shifted strategy again, saying it was betting on a contested convention.

Still the longer Warren stayed in the race, the more questions she faced about why she was doing so with little hope of winning — and she started to sound like a candidate who was slowly coming to terms with that.

“I’m not somebody who has been looking at myself in the mirror since I was 12 years old saying, ‘You should run for president,’” Warren said aboard her campaign bus on the eve of the New Hampshire primary, previewing a ceasing of campaigning that wasn’t yet official. “I started running for office later than anyone who is in this, so it was never about the office — it was about what we could do to repair our economy, what we could do to mend a democracy that’s being pulled apart. That’s what I want to see happen, and I just want to see it happen.”

She vowed to fight on saying, “I cannot say, for all those little girls, this got hard and I quit. My job is to persist.”

But even that seemed impossible after a Super Tuesday drubbing that included her home state.

ap

[plusorminuscongress]

New story in Politics from Time: Elizabeth Warren Ends 2020 Presidential Campaign

(WASHINGTON) — Elizabeth Warren, who electrified progressives with her “plan for everything” and strong message of economic populism, dropped out of the Democratic presidential race on Thursday, according to a person familiar with her plans. The exit came days after the onetime front-runner couldn’t win a single Super Tuesday state, not even her own.

The Massachusetts senator hasn’t endorsed Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden, the remaining candidates in the race. But she has talked to both campaigns in recent days and is assessing who would best uphold her agenda, according to another person who requested anonymity to discuss private conversations.

The people weren’t authorized to speak about Warren’s intentions and talked to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity.

Warren’s exit extinguished hopes that Democrats would get another try at putting a woman up against President Donald Trump.

For much of the past year, her campaign had all the markers of success, robust poll numbers, impressive fundraising and a sprawling political infrastructure that featured staffers on the ground across the country. She was squeezed out, though, by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who had an immovable base of voters she needed to advance.

Warren never finished higher than third in the first four states and was routed on Super Tuesday, failing to win any of the 14 states voting and placing an embarrassing third in Massachusetts, behind former Vice President Joe Biden and Sanders.

Her exit from the race following Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s departure leaves the Democratic field with just one female candidate: Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who has collected only one delegate toward the nomination. It was an unexpected twist for a party that had used the votes and energy of women to retake control of the House, primarily with female candidates, just two years ago.

Warren’s campaign began with enormous promise that she could carry that momentum into the presidential race. Last summer, she drew tens of thousands of supporters to Manhattan’s Washington Square Park, a scene that was repeated in places like Washington state and Minnesota.

She had a compelling message, calling for “structural change” to the American political system to reorder the nation’s economy in the name of fairness. She had a signature populist proposal for a 2% wealth tax she wanted to impose on households worth more than $50 million that prompted chants of “Two cents! Two cents!” at rallies across the country.

Warren, 70, began her White House bid polling near the back of an impossibly crowded field, used wonky policy prowess to rocket to front-runner status by the fall, then saw her support evaporate almost as quickly.

Her candidacy appeared seriously damaged almost before it started after she released a DNA test in response to goading by Trump to prove she had Native American ancestry. Instead of quieting critics who had questioned her claims, however, the test offended many tribal leaders who rejected undergoing the genetic test as culturally insensitive, and it didn’t stop Trump and other Republicans from gleefully deriding her as “Pocahontas.”

Warren also lost her finance director over her refusal to attend large fundraisers, long considered the financial life blood of national campaigns. Still, she distinguished herself by releasing dozens of detailed proposals on all sorts of policies from cancelling college debt to protecting oceans to containing the coronavirus. Warren also was able to build an impressive campaign war chest relying on mostly small donations that poured in from across the country — erasing the deficit created by refusing to court big, traditional donors.

As her polling began improving through the summer. Warren appeared to further hit her stride as she hammered the idea that more moderate Democratic candidates, including Biden, weren’t ambitious enough to roll back Trump’s policies and were too reliant on political consultants and fickle polling. And she drew strength in the #MeToo era, especially after a wave of female candidates helped Democrats take control of the U.S. House in 2018.

But Warren couldn’t consolidate the support of the Democratic Party’s most liberal wing against the race’s other top progressive, Sanders. Both supported universal, government-sponsored health care under a “Medicare for All” program, tuition-free public college and aggressive climate change fighting measures as part of the “Green New Deal” while forgoing big fundraisers in favor of small donations fueled by the internet.

Warren’s poll numbers began to slip after a series of debates when she repeatedly refused to answer direct questions about if she’d have to raise taxes on the middle class to pay for Medicare for All. Her top advisers were slow to catch on that not providing more details looked to voters like a major oversight for a candidate who proudly had so many other policy plans.

When Warren finally moved to correct the problem, her support eroded further. She moved away from a full endorsement of Medicare for All, announcing that she’d work with Congress to transition the country to the program over three years. In the meantime, she said, many Americans could “choose” to remain with their current, private health insurance plans, which most people have through their employers. Biden and other rivals pounced, calling Warren a flip-flopper, and her standing with progressives sagged.

Sanders, meanwhile, wasted little time capitalizing on the contrast by boasting that he would ship a full Medicare for All program for congressional approval during his first week in the White House. After long avoiding direct conflict, Warren and Sanders clashed in January after she said Sanders had suggested during a private meeting in 2018 that a woman couldn’t win the White House. Sanders denied that, and Warren refused to shake his outstretched hand after a debate in Iowa.

Leaning hard into the gender issue only saw Warren’s support sink further heading into Iowa’s leadoff caucus, however. But even as her momentum was slipping away, Warren still boasted impressive campaign infrastructure in that state and well beyond. Her army of volunteers and staffers looked so formidable that even other presidential candidates were envious.

Just before Iowa, her campaign released a memo detailing its 1,000-plus staffers nationwide and pledging a long-haul strategy that would lead to victories in the primary and the general election. Bracing for a poor finish in New Hampshire, her campaign issued another memo again urging supporters to stay focus on the long game — but also expressly spelling out the weaknesses of Sanders, Biden and Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, in ways the senator herself rarely did.

Warren got a foil for all of her opposition to powerful billionaires when former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg entered the race. During a debate in Las Vegas just before Nevada’s caucus, Warren hammered Bloomberg and the mayor’s lackluster response touched off events that ended with him leaving the race on Wednesday.

For Warren, That led to a sharp rise in fundraising, but didn’t translate to electoral success. She tried to stress her ability to unite the fractured Democratic party, but that message fell flat.

By South Carolina, an outside political group began pouring more than $11 million into TV advertising on Warren’s behalf, forcing her to say that, although she rejected super PACs, she’d accept their help as long as other candidates did. Her campaign shifted strategy again, saying it was betting on a contested convention.

Still the longer Warren stayed in the race, the more questions she faced about why she was doing so with little hope of winning — and she started to sound like a candidate who was slowly coming to terms with that.

“I’m not somebody who has been looking at myself in the mirror since I was 12 years old saying, ‘You should run for president,’” Warren said aboard her campaign bus on the eve of the New Hampshire primary, previewing a ceasing of campaigning that wasn’t yet official. “I started running for office later than anyone who is in this, so it was never about the office — it was about what we could do to repair our economy, what we could do to mend a democracy that’s being pulled apart. That’s what I want to see happen, and I just want to see it happen.”

She vowed to fight on saying, “I cannot say, for all those little girls, this got hard and I quit. My job is to persist.”

But even that seemed impossible after a Super Tuesday drubbing that included her home state.

By Will Weissert / AP on March 05, 2020 at 11:10AM

[theliberaltony]

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

It’s almost debate time! On June 26 and 27, 20 candidates will gather in Miami to take part in the first Democratic presidential primary debates of the 2020 election cycle. And today, June 12, marks the deadline for polls that can affect who makes it on stage. Since our update last week, three more qualifying polls have come out, though none of them have changed who makes the debate stage. Of course, it’s still possible another poll might drop today — the Democratic National Committee has said they will include all qualifying polls released by midnight tonight.

The DNC won’t release the final list of candidates who have qualified until tomorrow afternoon as candidates have until 11 a.m. Thursday to submit updated fundraising numbers, but here’s where things currently stand (be sure to check back in as we’ll be tracking if anything changes): Exactly 20 candidates — the maximum number the DNC says can participate — have met either the polling or donor requirements,1 with 14 hitting both (Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand announced on Monday that she hit the donor threshold). And with just 20 candidates making the cutoff, it looks as if the DNC won’t need to use its various tie-breaking procedures to winnow the field.

Which candidates are in line to make the primary debates?

Democratic presidential candidates by whether and how they have qualified for the first two primary debates, as of June 12, 2019

Qualifies for debates via … Candidate polls donors both Joe Biden ✓ ✓ ✓ Cory Booker ✓ ✓ ✓ Pete Buttigieg ✓ ✓ ✓ Julián Castro ✓ ✓ ✓ Tulsi Gabbard ✓ ✓ ✓ Kirsten Gillibrand ✓ ✓ ✓ Kamala Harris ✓ ✓ ✓ Jay Inslee ✓ ✓ ✓ Amy Klobuchar ✓ ✓ ✓ Beto O’Rourke ✓ ✓ ✓ Bernie Sanders ✓ ✓ ✓ Elizabeth Warren ✓ ✓ ✓ Marianne Williamson ✓ ✓ ✓ Andrew Yang ✓ ✓ ✓ Michael Bennet ✓ Bill de Blasio ✓ John Delaney ✓ John Hickenlooper ✓ Tim Ryan ✓ Eric Swalwell ✓ Steve Bullock Mike Gravel Seth Moulton

For candidates deemed “major” by FiveThirtyEight.

To qualify via polling, a candidate must reach 1 percent in at least three national or early-state polls from qualifying polling organizations. To qualify via donors, a candidate must have at least 65,000 unique donors with at least 200 donors in at least 20 states. Information released by campaigns is used to determine whether a candidate has hit the donor threshold. If a campaign reached 65,000 donors but did not say whether it had at least 200 donors in 20 states, we assumed that it had met the latter requirement as well. Candidates will have to prove to the DNC that they have met the donor requirements.

Sources: Polls, Media reports

As for who won’t make the debate stage, three candidates who FiveThirtyEight considers “major” fell short of both the polling and donor requirements. This was a particularly tough break for Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, who, at this stage, is still one poll shy of qualification. Bullock’s circumstances for not making the debate stage were also somewhat unexpected: Just last week, the DNC told Politico that it would not count two open-ended surveys conducted by ABC News/Washington Post. This meant that one of the polls which FiveThirtyEight had included as Bullock’s third qualifying poll no longer counted.2 The two other major candidates who didn’t make the stage — Rep. Seth Moulton and former Sen. Mike Gravel — didn’t reach 1 percent in a single qualifying poll.

But it’s not like these candidates didn’t have plenty of opportunities to qualify. In total, we count 23 qualifying polls for the first set of debates, conducted by seven different pollsters since the start of the year. And every major candidate was asked about in at least 14 surveys, save former Sen. Mike Gravel, who was included just six times.

Of those polls, 16 were national surveys, six were split evenly between the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire, and then Monmouth’s latest poll rounded out the list with the first qualifying poll from Nevada. But there were no surveys from South Carolina, even though the DNC identified a qualifying polling organization there (Winthrop University).

That mix of polls matters because the DNC is using them not only to decide who makes the debates, but also in how to group the candidates between the two nights. The draw, which the DNC plans to do this Friday, will not be completely random. Participants will be selected from two pots of candidates — one with participants who averaged at least 2 percent in their three strongest qualifying polls and one with the remaining candidates. The debate fields will then be set by random draws from the two pots to fill up 10 spots for both nights. And based on our average of the qualifying polls, nine candidates are polling at 2 percent or more: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Beto O’Rourke, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, and Julian Castro. By using this approach, the DNC will avoid having all of the leading candidates appear on stage the same night, though there’s still a chance that the very top candidates — such as the two poll leaders, Biden and Sanders — will appear in the same debate.

While the candidates for the first debate appear set, the debate qualification game is far from over. The same polling and donor criteria will be in place to determine who qualifies for the second round of Democratic debates in Detroit on July 30-31, and then higher standards will come into play for September’s third debate, hosted by ABC News and Univision. So we can expect plenty more debate about the debates moving forward.

[megacircuit9universe]

Resurrection Stone

WED MAR 04 2020

But that plan only works if the other guy drops out and pledges his delegates to me… well before the convention.  If both of them… with only half the popular vote that Bernie has… are there contesting the nomination… neither of them has any rational argument for getting it.

Therefore, Bernie wins.

To avoid that, by coalescing around one centrist candidate… there is a timer already ticking.  Super Tuesday is already happening, it’s too late to hold Bernie back there!… how bout by the next Super Tuesday on March 10th?

Too soon to give up the dream and back a rival centrist?  

-SAT FEB 29

From my lips to God’s ears, apparently.  

The above quote is from my last entry, the night Biden won South Carolina by a huge margin... first state he’s ever won in his life, despite running in multiple Presidential primaries... and despite doing terrible in the first three states here in 2020.

My theory was, that even if the lesser centrists, like Buttigieg, and Klobuchar dropped out after Super Tuesday, Bloomberg would remain to split the centrist vote with Biden all the way to the convention.

Sanders was looking to win big just three days later... on Super Tuesday, possibly sweeping ten or more of the fourteen states.

Now... I’ve talked about quantum leaps before in politics... where something extremely unlikely to happen, nonetheless happens and changes everything overnight.  And we had one on Super Monday.

Biden did get a nice media bump on Super Sunday, after winning SC on Saturday, and then the seemingly impossible happened on Monday, where both Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropped out, and endorsed Biden.

Seemingly impossible, because it was just one day before the big game, and they both have such huge egos (as do all politicians).  But not only did they drop out and endorse Biden... so did Beto O’rourke!

I feel like such an idiot now for thinking about him as a great running mate for Bernie Sanders... I had no idea he was such a huge tool!  He dropped out of this primary forever ago now, and nobody was even thinking about him, but he still came out to endorse Biden on the same day as Pete and Klobi.

Then, on Tuesday itself, the unthinkable happened and Biden... kicked total ass and won ten of the fourteen states!  

Of the two big prize states, California and Texas, Biden won Texas... though it was a close call there.  Bernie did get a comfortable lead in California... but Biden cleaned his clock in other states he was supposed to win handily.

It can’t be overstated, what a blindsiding upset this was to everybody.  Even by the mainstream media, Joe Biden’s candidacy was thought to be dead.  He’d done terribly.  He was out of money.  And he’d never campaigned at all in any of these Super Tuesday states beforehand.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg, who had spent half a billion (with a, B) dollars on these fourteen Super Tuesday states... did miserably in all of them, winning nothing but American Samoa.

Bloomberg did so badly, that he dropped out today (Super Wednesday) and gave his endorsement to Biden.

Tom Steyer, another billionaire who’d been in the race also dropped out today, but... nobody was ever worried about him.

Elizabeth Warren, who did so badly that she came in third in her home state, after Biden and Sanders, has, for the moment, elected to stay in the race, despite having almost no delegates and having won nothing.

So, what happened here?

Well... word on the street is that Obama himself made a few phone calls in the hours after Joe’s big win in SC... to Pete and Klobi, and convinced them to drop out immediately, for JB’s sake... and then called Beto, just for good measure.

While the iron was still hot from Joe’s SC win, this very unexpected news kept it red hot long enough to turn out dazzled Biden fans in droves on election day.

And it seems to have flipped a lot of Bloomberg voters who were only backing him because they’d accepted that Biden... their true fave... had no chance.

Meanwhile Bernie voters... especially the young ones, had grown a bit complacent, thinking he had a lock on Super Tuesday, and weren’t paying enough attention over a Saturday and Sunday... because they’re young and have partying to do... and hangovers to nurse on Mondays... to realize there was any significant threat to their expectations.*

This all resulted in the political quantum leap we all witnessed, where Joe Biden essentially rose from the grave to steal front runner status from Bernie, in what is very suddenly, a two man race.

It’s important to note here that... this was not trickery.  This was not voter suppression or some kind of evil app designed to massage the numbers.  This was not foreign intervention.

This was... straight up political genius... most likely on the part of Obama... and totally by the rules.

He’s still the figurehead of the Democratic Party.  He’s allowed to make a few phone calls and use his influence to give his former VP the best shot possible.

And hey!   He was President for eight years, so...  shouldn’t we assume he knows more about this kind of shit than any of us do?  His Plan worked amazingly well, after all.

Can’t we just trust Obama to use this same kind of genius to guide Biden safely through a contest with Trump, and into the White House, ending our national nightmare?

Well?..

Obama may be a master of political calculation in many spheres... but his Achilles heel always was... and still is... his faith that Republicans can see reason, and will do the right thing.  

It’s one thing to resurrect Biden in a primary, when only Democrats are voting.

It’s a whole other thing to keep that reanimated zombie alive through a campaign against Trump, who will be ready with a shotgun, hatchet, club, and any other weapon of opportunity to send it back to Hell.

Trump got impeached and acquitted over his plans to destroy Biden by slinging mud about Burisma, but he won’t even need to bother gushing his hands into that goop when Biden is so clearly in the grips of early onset dementia.

Up until now, it’s been easy to brush that under the rug... with Biden being only one of ten or more candidates on a debate stage... his incoherent babble easily drowned out by the nine other assholes vying for the spotlight.

Yes, Trump is also in the early stages of dementia, but nowhere near as far down the road as Biden.

Also, as the incumbent, Trump’s brand of on and off dementia has been incorporated into his branding, and is accepted as normal... and very toxic to his opponents.

Trump will mop the fucking floor with Biden... the way only an extremely spiteful bastard could... to a cognitively disadvantaged, and thus helpless fellow senior.

We all know this is true about Joe Biden at age 77.

Some people do hit dementia in their seventies.  Not many.  Usually that’s a thing that develops in your 80s or even 90s, but for some, it does arrive early, and for Biden...it’s pretty advanced.  That’s down to random chance, but it’s still a fact.

People at his stage of dementia do not just bounce back to full brain function because they got the Democratic nomination for the Presidency...  that’s not how cognitive decline works.

This guy can barely string together a sentence.

And when that happens to your grampa, everybody in the family who loves him so much, will kind of be in denial about it, and rally around him, and give him love and hugs, and try to make him as happy as they can.

But... that’s a hell of a thing to trigger a national electorate to do!

Now, Grampa Joe is in a cage match with Bernie Sanders.

This will not be cute!

Of the three... Trump 73, Biden 77, and Sanders 78... in this extremely unfortunate battle to the death now, of very old grandfathers... Sanders is the oldest, but the only one who still has full command of his mental faculties.

Sanders is still sharp as a tack... metnally.  He did have a heart attack, but hey!  that’s child’s play compared to dementia, when you’re talking about a President in 2020.

Biden, if put on a debate stage with Sanders, will be exposed for his late stage dementia... to the awkward embarrassment of all.

But to try and keep Biden off a debate stage with Sanders, to avoid that, and allow him to coast completely on name recognition, and nostalgia for a pre-Trump era... will only result in putting off that awkward embarrassment until the fall, against Trump... at which point it will be ten thousand times worse.

Obama can smile as eight-bit sunglasses drop over his face, about the Super Tuesday maneuver he so cleverly engineered last minute from his living room, but it’s not a stunt that will work again in the general election against Trump.

For Sanders now... the only hope is that voters do shake off this daze and give him big wins next Tuesday, and the Tuesday after that... solidifying his place as front runner well before the convention.

That’s possible... but at this point I’m not holding my breath about anything.

Still, for argument’s sake, let’s say that the cage match between Biden and Sanders not only gives Sanders the lead back... but also exposes Biden’s dementia to the point where he suspends his campaign.

That’s where Elizabeth Warren comes in.

My going theory is that she is still waiting for Biden to eventually drop out, after racking up a ton of delegates, but ultimately collapsing under the harsh spotlight.

She, then, would swoop in to get Biden’s endorsement, taking all his delegates, and challenge Bernie at the convention, perhaps forcing the super delegates to back her over him... because she’s a little more centrist.

If that happens... she will have won the nomination without having won a single state, and only a handful of delegates under her own steam.

And... Trump would still mop the floor with her because, “Pocahontas.”

She’s a deeply snakey, slimey politician who has proven herself to be so time and again... to the voters who matter in all the states she’s never been able to win even in primaries.

She will lose to Trump.

So... I don’t know where the fuck we go from here, but it’s looking more and more like Trump will get another... fifteen years, because if he wins in 2020, he’s president for life.

I will no longer be surprised if that happens, but... the only thing that can possibly stop it is if Bernie just kills it in every contest from next Tuesday until the Convention.

We’ll see.

I’m going to bed.

*Not to be a young voter apologist, because I’m not. I was  young too... partied a lot and had big hangovers.  I still voted in every election, primary or general, local, state, and federal, from the age of 18 to present (now 50).

It was infuriating in 2016, to see how badly millennials who were very vocal online about their informed political opinions, failed us at the polls.  It’s even more infuriating after three years of Trump, to see them, and now their GenZ counterparts, who are even more vocal online, and more informed... fail us once again at the polls... while in the same breath complaining about how the establishment has destroyed their future.

It’s all fun and games until you’re living under a dictatorship, kids, on a dying planet.

If you don’t get your asses out to vote in the 2020 primaries, you will spend a good sixty years in that hell, cursing yourself every single day that you didn’t vote in that one last little window where we still could, and you were dancing on Tik Tok instead.