#Things escalate so much that the king has to get involve to resolve the conflict

[sadlynotthevoid]

So, you know how when an author is writing og!Cale and they want to give him a power, sometimes they give him fantasy spirit stuff? Well, I want elementals to have the usual 'spirit king per attribute' that you usually find in fantasy mangas, but make the water spirit king an axolotl and let og!Cale befriend them.

And when I say Axolotl Water Spirit King I mean 'non-parlant little flying axolotl' that can turn into a 'giantic, water-looking-like, could swallow a pirate ship, still non-parlant axolotl' a la Ponyo.

Just, Imagine og!Cale who was just minding his business and finds a little dorky amphibian that got trapped in a net. And the little dorky one smiles at him. He has no choice but to help it.

The little one likes him. They become friends :D!!

So, turns out his animal friend can fly. Cool.

His new friend decided to follow him— Wait, where is he going?

...Oh.

So, his little friend is not so little anymore.

Ey, don't— spit it out! Spit the bad woman out!

And he doesn't like his relatives.

[ifindus]

i must know... what is it that you like so much about scotnor/norscot? what sort of dynamic do you envision them having? tell us things!!

Damn, thank you both for actually caring about this ship enough to send asks about it. Always happy to entice! Since there’s two asks, I’ve done two drawings and I have chosen to structure the post after (1) their dynamic and (2) their history. The history part is a bit of a read so I’ve put that under the [read more] under the illustrations, but I hope it at least is interesting!

Their Dynamic:

I see them as a good couple where they balance each other out quite nicely. Scotland is a bit hot-headed and brash, while Norway calm and rational. Still, I think they get off on teasing each other where you might actually think they are being mean to the other, but it’s all a joke. They have that mutual understanding between them, they get each other.

They would be the best of friends, but they wouldn’t advertise it? No one would even know they spend time together because they are both a bit removed from the rest of Europe, let alone that they are a couple. They wouldn’t openly advertise it either, just perhaps mentioning to Denmark, Sweden and England that they have plans together next week if they ask to hang out. Without no further explanation at all. And England might suspect something? But it is far from obvious.

In most of what I ship I like for the pair to be on equal standing, and I feel like this fit here. Scotland is probably more known internationally, but Norway has more influence. They can also both relate to being in a union and more or less ruled by another country.

They would go hiking together, and sometimes Norway would even be able to convince Scotland to come skiing with him (I think about half of Great Britain’s cross-country team are from Scotland and they all live and train in Norway). Both Scotland and Norway have some beautiful locations and in some places very similar nature even. They would also go drinking a lot – vodka, beer and whiskey – and hanging out in pubs together just chatting. Football is another passion they both share and the Norwegian Rosenborg has been in the group play of Europa League with the Scottish Celtic a few years now – even going scoring a goal against one of the other teams in the last match, hindering their victory, and allowing Celtic to advance. Needless to say, Glasgow was in an uproar after that and even sold mugs in their colours with the face of the Norwegian goal scorer.

In addition, I think both of them are very obsessed with folklore and mythology, and sharing an interest in the genre of crime, enjoying scary stuff. There might also be some relation between the Scottish Kelpies and the Norwegian Nøkken.

It is also funny how some Scottish words are so related to Norwegian due to the Norse Period (see the history bit), such as “bairn” in Scottish and “barn” in Norwegian, which means children.

I just think they’d make an awesome pair, just sharing many interests while still being quite different. They would feel very comfortable with each other and have a strong base of trust.

Their History:

Viking Period. Viking raids on coastal Scotland begins around 800 and continues up into the century, until at the end the activity transforms into settlement, then especially on the Northern Isles of Shetland and Orkney, as well as the Western Isles of the Hebrides. Most likely they blended with the locals and we can see an intermingling of style here. Still, there was most likely contact between the lands before that due to finds of combs made of reindeer antler in the area – and reindeers don’t exist in Scotland. In about 1015 Knut the Great of Denmark conquers most of England, and with him is Eirik Earl of Lade from Norway, a sort of mentor and powerful figure that supports the young king. As a reward he gets Northumbria, which borders to southern parts of Scotland. This is about the only period where there are no reports of wars between Northumbria and Scotland in this period. It is, however, the permanent settlements of Norsemen that lead up to the next period in Scottish history:

Norse Period. In this period, the islands I mentioned earlier is still claimed by Norway as most of the population on them are either under Norse rule or identify largely are Norsemen. This escalated to a conflict that saw the Battle of Largs in 1263, a battle which none of the involved parties won. The Western Isles had from 1100 been a part of the Norwegian realm, and since 1240, King Alexander II of Scotland had tried to buy it from Håkon Håkonsson, King of Norway, but was rejected every time. Eventually, feeling threatened Håkon gathered the largest fleet said ever to leave Norway and sailed to Scotland. After failed negotiations and some Norwegian raids a huge storm surprised the fleet and crashed some of the boats and washing them ashore where the crews were attacked by the Scottish forces, double the numbers. The storm hindered any tactical moves as the waves and wind made it impossible to control the ships, but eventually the Norsemen got back on some of the ships and after a long distance battle, which both sides pulled back from after a while. After retreating to Orkney, Håkon got ill and died and his successor Magnus Lagabøte made a treaty with Alexander III in 1260 to give up the claim on the Western Isles for a certain amount of money and the prospects of good trade with both Scotland and England. In 1281 Margaret, daughter of the Scottish king Alexander III, gets betrothed to Erik II of Norway as a way to finally put an end to the disputes between them for good. Unfortunately, she dies in the childbirth of her daughter Margaret Maid of Norway – who was actually on her way to become queen of Scotland when her grandfather died with no living male heirs, but she also died untimely only 7 years old after she became ill on the journey over the sea in 1290

After this unfortunately, it’s not long until Norway becomes a part of the Kalmar union as a result of the Black Death in 1348 and ends up under Danish rule for about 400 years, where the Danish king in 1468 gives away Orkney and Shetland as a pawn for the dowry of his daughter because he did not have the money to pay (this situation was never actually resolved and the isles still could be considered only a pawn).

The Norwegian Cruise. In 1886 a Scottish shipping company began with Norwegian cruises to look at the fjords along the coast of Norway, maybe one of the first ever planned cruises, which was so popular that they only increased the amount the following year. This continued until World War One began.

Second World War. During the Second World War Norway was occupied by Germany, and many of those who fled came to England and Britain (as was the case with most of Europe). On Shetland, however, there came to be a Norwegian base of operations where Norwegian sailors and volunteers would carry out missions across the North Sea to Norway. There they would smuggle in weapons and provisions and information to the resistance, as well as helping refugees to escape the country. This was of immense help to Norway during the war.

Thanks for reading!! This turned into a bit of an essay and I was more thourough at the beginning of this, but I hope you enjoyed it regardless! 

[phoenixdown-and-fairydust]

Happy Worldbuilding Wednesday. Let's talk about recourse. What kind of options do people in your world have for addressing wrongs? Are there vigilantes? Are people generally satisfied with their options? How long does it usually take to receive restitution?

Thanks for the ask :)

It kind of depends on what part of the world they’re in. The main focus of TotG is the kingdom that Sereana and her brothers live in, and they have a few different levels that things go through depending on the nature of the problem and location.

Generally if you can’t settle it between yourselves, you go to a higher authority, be it the village/city guard etc. If they can’t they might involve someone like they village elder/mayor etc. If it’s disputes between members with in a guild or guilds it will usually fall to the guild leaders. If they can’t settle it internally it will be escalated to involve outside authority above them. If it gets severe enough it can get authorities such as the guardians or king/queen involved.

The chain of authority varies depending on the nature of the issue, for example, is it magical or not? Has there already been violence or threats of? Between people or is there a monster/environmental issue? Etc.

Time for issues to be resolved depends on a variety of things, but issues are usually dealt with in issue of urgency then chronologically. For example, something strange is going on with this area, people are inexplicably getting sick/being killed/disappearing, get someone out there now, likely one or more of the guardians will personally be investigating/dealing with the issue, or at the very least a high ranking knight answering to them. The merchant guild’s argument with this noble is on hold with restrictions to keep them civil at least if they can’t resolve it on their own, until the more immediate serious issues are dealt with.

People’s opinions and the presence of vigilante types also depends on the area and the alignment of the individuals involved. There’s a conflict for the throne building up, so some areas of the kingdom have differing views. There’s also the factors of who exactly you’re dealing with for time and effectiveness, even within the same side. For example, Sereana is very much chaotic good, despite being a knight and noble. While she’s tasked with upholding order and justice, she also has little patience with the places where the law fails the people, and will take action even if it means bending or breaking the rules. However some of the other knights, even if they agree with her that the system needs to change, are more lawful good and believe in going by the book to fix things. To some she toes the line between her duty and authority  and vigilante action at times.

There’s also a difference between some of the people based on social class as well. Some of the older noble families still use organized duels to resolve fights within the courts, though such method have lost with favour other nobles and common people alike. These days they’re usually more strictly regulated and treated as more of as a public spectacle for the nobles. If they insist on fighting rather than talking at least if it’s done in more controlled environment it’s easier to prevent excessive injury or unnecessary fatalities and endless revenge spirals for petty reasons.  For someit at least lets them get enough aggression out of their system, so if the duel doesn’t settle it they’ll be a bit more willing to consider mediation. And Sereana and her brothers have to admit, sometimes it is satisfying to just knock a cocky noble’s ego down a few notches via said noble’s preferred method of dealing with an issue.

[myassbrokethefall]

OK, my GoT thoughts under the cut. Summary: Motivations technically understandable/justifiable; execution bad/dramatically unsatisfying/anticlimactic/baffling.

Essentially: I can buy what happened to Dany and I can accept the ending for Jaime, but the way the show got to both of those points makes no sense to me, and undercut the effectiveness and the meaning severely for both.

Dany: Was I expecting this character to just fly into King's Landing with her giant terrifying dragon(s), roar at Cersei, peacefully take the kingdom, and have a parade thrown for her as she happily fulfills her destiny? No.

Am I mad that we got a "mad queen" arc? I am not. One might almost say it was inevitable and has been foreshadowed with every word of the show and the books since the beginning.

But I was expecting SOMETHING redemptive, not just "Dany goes crazy and kills everyone for no reason." I also was looking forward to clash of the two queens, both crazy for power and increasingly unstable in their attempts to hold onto it, and for it to become clear that Cersei was irretrievably gone to the dark side, and Dany was not. I was expecting Dany's reckoning with her "mad" side to involve her somehow overcoming it, or trying to overcome it, even if in some small symbolic way that ultimately ended in tragedy for her. Not just her...becoming evil, full stop.

This entire season has felt super rushed, and I also am annoyed that we have had TWO hour-and-a-half episodes almost entirely dedicated to battles. When there is so much shit to get done!!! Character arcs are getting short shrift but we gotta have all the gore and destruction, not just in one episode, but in two episodes, directed by the same dude who is their “battles” guy I guess. Having this battle almost cheapens the other battle. I was like, remember when we all united against the ice zombies and humans finally prevailed, and it showed all these other conflicts to be ultimately petty and meaningless in comparison to the fight against death and existential (and literal, lol) darkness? That de-escalated quickly.

So it's not that I didn't want Dany to go mad or I think that was impossible. But it felt very pointless the way it was executed, and felt like it happened because it's the end of the series, not because anything particularly organic made it happen in this moment. (Yes, she lost two dragons and Missandei and Jorah, and Jon froze her out. Her changing her whole personality into a crazed murderer of civilians -- in the face of a victory, no less -- still made no sense to me.) Like I could see her going crazy on the city if they threw rocks at her or something after she was like "I just killed Cersei, you simple dumbasses! I LIBERATED YOU! LOVE ME!!!! I'M THE GOOD RULER!! OK FUCK YOU THEN!!" But to be flying around, basically accomplish her goal of taking the city, and then suddenly be like "Rarrr, Dany go crazy! Because Targaryen blood! Kill all humans!" It's not like Cersei even likes the humans; we spent a long time establishing that she doesn't give a fuck about the people. There was no reason, to my mind, that Dany snapping would involve her burning the whole city that she's fought to get for so long. It felt like it was for shock value, both at the loss of life and at us going "omg Dany was the villain all along!" But it did not, to me, feel earned. Just baffling and disappointing.

If anything I thought CERSEI would do some huge evil gesture to pointlessly fuck the city just to go out in a blaze of glory, and Dany would fight AGAINST her own nascent rageahol Targaryen feelings and experience character growth and transcend her fate in order to try to prevent that from happening. Or NOT ultimately be able to do that, but at least make a gesture towards such a thing. It was just weird the way it happened. And I don't see how Dany can come back from this, as a character, and that is disappointing because we've invested so much in her. It's really deflating. It's just like, oh, I guess Dany is bad now. She was a crazy Targaryen after all! Everybody thought she might go mad, and now she did. D'oh. But it's a weird and oddly anticlimactic ending for such a character. (I realize it hasn't ended yet, but I don't think redemption is in the cards for her after this episode.)

(Also, what was Varys, etc.'s basis for suddenly deciding that she bout to go crazy and we can't trust her? Her being impatient to get to King's Landing and get going on the sacking last week? Arguably she should have let the armies rest, and I took Sansa's side in that argument, but you could make a case for Dany’s side as well, which was essentially "sure, we're tired, but if we wait longer they'll also regroup and it will be even more difficult, let's just get this the fuck done already." That to me doesn't say "I'm dangerously unstable and everyone knows it!" so much as "Our military strategies differ!")

OK. So what I was expecting was Dany versus Cersei, both power-mad, both not wanting to back down, but one of them at her essence having a heart that truly does care about justice (the beat of these warring impulses within her has been struck MANY times with Dany's character) and managing to see through the power-lust fog to remember that. Whether too late or not, for that to happen in some capacity. And this also ties into Jaime's arc.

I wasn't upset when Jaime heard about shit going down in King's Landing last week and decided that his happy chill Winterfell life with Brienne wasn't going to be that easy and he had to go back to fix the mess he helped make and sever his connection with his twin once and for all. (I mean, I kinda was, but I was like, yeah, I can see that this has to happen.) And he was fucking pissed about it and he was all, this is my shit too, I'm an asshole who has done bad stuff that I have never really atoned for, as this jaghole in the rolly chair keeps reminding me, I can't be with you until I get back in the mud with her and end it once and for all. That is where I ASSUMED they were going. And I think they sort of were, but it didn't end up that way at all.

So what I thought was going to happen was Jaime would get to the city, insinuate himself in somehow, get to Cersei, and talk her down. Or make an attempt. That this was how Jaime would finally cement his redemption, as the only person who could reach Cersei. I thought all the "I'm bad, I've done bad things, I'm as bad as she was" was him essentially being pissed that this was his task. When Tyrion was going on about you can escape and get in a dinghy and start a new life together with your incest baby, I thought, oh dear sentimental (perhaps not in an entirely in-character way) Tyrion, Jaime is going to go and KILL her ass and not a moment too soon. He knows that the blood on her hands is on his hands as well. He doesn't want to start a B&B with her in Europe; he needs to cut the cord, to use an apt metaphor. He doesn't want to, and he's dreading it, but he's the only one who can make it happen because he's the closest to her and she trusts him and he's the only hope of saving the city. He may hold her and TELL her that they can escape, and might even say "oh yeah babe there's totally a dinghy waiting for us if we can just get through the tunnels," and then he's going to stab her in the gut and avert that battle that I dumbly thought they would not stage an entire second one of after they just had one two episodes ago. Jaime the kingslayer, who slayed the queen as well, his own sister, but he had to do it and now he's finally fully redeemed. Even Dany who didn’t trust him will see that he was ultimately the only one who could do what had to be done.

If Jaime died in THAT process I wouldn't be surprised. Like if Cersei fought him and he had to somehow sacrifice them both (a la the Cleganes) in order to get her to die, he would do it, and that would be tragic but meaningful. Or if he dispatched Cersei and THEN got buried by the collapsing castle or whatever, he had accomplished his mission but it was too late for him. Hell, maybe they even make it to the fabled dinghy of redemption and he's talked himself into the idea that he can control her, and then he has second thoughts and drowns her or something because he knows he will never be free if she's alive, and neither will the world because she will always lust for power. OR EVEN if, at the last minute, he gets sucked back into her orbit and he's like "bitch we ARE gonna escape!!! WE CAN START ANEW, IT'S ALL LIKE WE DREAMED" and then she kills him or something but at the last second some shit that he puts in motion causes her to die and the city is saved that way.

But what I was NOT expecting is Jaime to be told "go get her, put her in a boat, start a new life together!" and just like, DO that, or try to. To just apparently shrug off the whole Brienne thing and get to Cersei and be like "hi baby! I missed you" and "let's hug" and then they just die in the castle FOR NO PURPOSE. It didn't redeem Jaime, it didn't tragically NOT redeem Jaime, Jaime just sort of went back there just in time to die with nothing resolved. What is the point of watching this character grow over the seasons and then be like "well I guess he realized he had to go back and die with Cersei because THEY ARE TWINS" (pretty much what the showrunners said). Yes, They Are Twins, which is why it's tragic to have one kill the other, or for him to outgrow her, or for him to give up a promise of happiness to go back and put a stop to her evil deeds because he's the only one who can. What I'm saying is, it's not the tragedy per se that I object to! But to just be like, well, he came back to her because remember they were incest twins and they love each other! They died, the end, is just...such a weird anticlimactic way to do it. “He couldn’t escape her orbit after all; that’s the tragedy!” I guess, but to me that was not supported at all in the rest of Jaime’s arc. It felt like we were pointedly amassing evidence that he WOULD be able to escape her orbit in the final inevitable confrontation. And then that just didn’t come up at all. 

And I love Brienne and I loved them together but like, I don't care THAT much, this isn't a shipper thing. I'm not surprised that Jaime ended up dying. It just makes no sense for the character for it to happen the way it did. I kept thinking we were going one way and then something would happen where I'd be like "huh??" As with my old friend Christopher Carter, I can't tell if they just didn't convey what they were supposed to be conveying (maybe Jaime WAS supposed to be intending to kill her, or to do SOMETHING other than just go back to hang out? and it didn't come through?) or if they just legit wrote it like that. Like the Brienne storyline was just a way to pass the time before the timer went off and they had to cut all that short and dump it in a drawer and get Jaime back to King's Landing so he could die with Cersei because once they thought of that ending scene 5 years ago or something.

I mean: Jaime was the Kingslayer. We were reminded of that A LOT, and also of the fact that the king he killed was Dany's father, and that Dany's father was "mad" and evil, and Jaime killed him ultimately to protect the city, and then got shit for this for the rest of his life.

And we are also shown that Dany is becoming a Mad Queen, who may be about to follow in her father's footsteps after all.

And Jaime goes to all this trouble to get back to the city, where almost these same events are playing out all over again. And...

...Jaime just goes to hang out with Cersei? And then dies? How is there not a whole situation where there is SOME parallel to the Kingslayer thing that we keep being reminded of and that is repeating itself? Such as:

Jaime slays a Mad Queen, but it's Cersei, not Dany.

Jaime has a chance to slay a Mad Queen, Dany (we've literally already had a conversation about this a few eps ago, that she was worried this would happen), but instead he is able to reach her and show her that she is different from her father and it DOESN'T have to play out this way.

Jaime has a chance to slay a Mad Queen (either could work) and prevent the destruction of the city, again, but this time he makes the other choice and doesn’t do it, and it results in tragedy.

Jaime, transformatively humanized and experiencing non-incestuous love for the first time and no longer at the top of his fighting game, no longer has the killer instinct to pull the metaphorical trigger on slaying whichever queen, and Tyrion pops in to do the job for him.

Like any of these things would have made more dramatic sense than what happened, which was, NOTHING. Jaime doesn't even get near Dany and once he gets to Cersei he's just like "hi! time to die I guess" and then they die.

(Maybe something along these lines will happen in the finale? Again, I'm not sure how at this point.) (I suppose it's not IMPOSSIBLE that Jaime could be pulled out of the rubble, but if he is Cersei might be too, and I am REALLY done with Cersei and do not want to dedicate the finale to trying to kill her YET AGAIN.)

Anyway. I was being flip about male showrunners yesterday but honestly, it feels like they are like, let's just wrap this all up fast so we can have 1.5 hours of battle scene. THE PEOPLE NEED A(NOTHER) BATTLE EPISODE.

It WAS cool seeing Drogon FINALLY destroy the Iron Fleet, but literally, why didn't Dany do that last episode. I couldn't enjoy it because that continues to be so baffling to me.

This is longer than I intended; oh well.

[morningmoon]

Overall thoughts of Arc V

posted on NAC, figured i might as well share it here too. It’s a long one.

Setting Maiami City is great. The first we see of it is a modern and post-contemporary design to the city, there's a lot of commercialism on display taking iconic imagery of YGO and plastering it as billboards. You Show and Yuya's house are shown to be pretty unique in their architecture, but still very grounded in reality. It's a world that's probably not more than ten years ahead of us; it's a mayor city but with a very nice housing region. As the first season goes on, we see more of it, we see how important and varied the schools are, we see the not-so-pretty parts of the city. There's just enough depth to Maiami to feel more alive than even Neo Domino did. Then we leave it. The City is up next, and it's just a more surface level approach to Neo Domino. There's the shit part of the city and floating shit that's fancy. Before we can really dig into the latter, we're stuck in the former, then a prison and the rest of the season is the same hotel, racetrack stadium and a bit of the Duel Lanes before going back to the same shit parts. Oh and the trash mines. While 5D's included early on how the trash stuff works and how it's an insane way to fight your way to the nice part of the city, AV's just has this stark contrast that doesn't feel truly connected. If you walk long enough in a direction, you'll reach a nice part of town apparently. The mines and the prison exist, but you can't really pin their location or anything. They're stark contrasts that do not feel connected beyond lore. Heartland... is just some bits of ZX's heartland, but in ruins. There isn't much to the setting at all. Fusion has that sorta venice place we see for a couple of eps and then we go to Academia, which is just a series of corridors with 4 rooms. It doesn't feel real, there's a courtyard but I have no idea how you reach it beyond "go to a corridor and eventually it'll connect" Yuya going Odd Eyes Raeg happens in a room that I cannot fathom where it is compared to Leo's place because it's so hightech it should either be right next to it or buried underground, but the show just has it nebulously inside of academia.It's disappointing. We start with a strong location, a strong setting, and then we ditch it for the next and the next and the next and each is shallower than the last one. Duels You know me. Y'all know my shallow ass don't really care for the yugiohs. Hand me a Yuma vs Gauche once or twice a cour and i'm good. I'll meme that YGO was better when it was about zombire and paint mazes. Arc V promised me something that made me want to care even in my shallow level: Dynamic Duels. The premise of 5D's bought me over when I saw the first riding duel moving all over the streets into an abandoned factory and maneuvering crazy locations a bike shouldn't be able to do. Arc-V then promised me that mobility would be even more important because it's not rigid bikes, it's fluid monsters, able to chance the monster you're riding on the fly and interact with them. All for a goal that is a buff during the duel. You bet your ass I got hype when Yuya got on a pink hippo in that first PV. ACTION FIELD MAGIC CROSS OVER. FUCK. Dynamic places became less common during the first season, but they were still a thing! There were at least entirely different fields in every duel. Then came in Riding Duels and my god. MY GOD. Yugo suddenly makes me nostalgia hard for 5D's, he goes so many places, the scenery changes so much, the time of day the state of the city, it's so beautiful. Cross Over. Duel on the stadium. crossover accel. cross over cross over cross over. fuck. The duels lose intensity as it goes on, they often become duels of two duelists standing in places as if it was DMGXZX and every now and then Yuya will jump and run to get a card. Cross Over Accel usually involves picking up a card from the floor and every other duel will have a sick bike stunt. But yeah, for the most part, the concept's just burnt and interesting navigation is pretty much gone. Yuya is so tied to this. The ultimate thing of the show, is that entertainment is the greatest power, but Yuya can't muster the confidence to use it. Therefore, his duels are directly tied to his state of mind. Is he egaoing? then maybe there'll be some dynamic movements or, if we're lucky and it's a blue moon, Yuya will setup a big set piece act where the game straight up changes to let a big fun and dynamic moment happen. But if Egao is what solves everything, then your main character can't be holding that power, ergo, Yuya's duels have to be gimped most of the time, so stand over there like it's Gx, Yuya, but with less varied fields.It was just so promising, that duels would be a spectacle. But gameplay wise that deteriorated rather fast, with spectacle it got nearly dropped after year 1 and it's ultimately tied to Yuya believing in himself, which is the thing he struggles with the most. Themes and Message I love egao. The idea that smiles make the world better is great. If you are positive and you can pass that positiveness to others then you are improving the world. To look at all the issues around you and decide you can tackle them while also keeping a smile is a noble thing, I love heroes that can stay positive through adversity. A lot of people take issue with Yuya "forcing this down people's throats", but to me the problem is that Yuya needs it fored down his own throat. He's got some doubts here and there in Standard, then in Synchro it is offered that, much like Kattobing with Yuma early on, Yuya doesn't actually know what it means to bring smiles to people: he's parroting his dad and acting as he did. This breaks Yuya hard and he goes back and forth during the rest of the season until he gets a rematch with Jack and shows his answer... is that he believes in his dad, but will also throw in the dimension dragons. uh. Before that point there's stuff like Kachidoki shaking his resolve, and after that there's stuff like Yuto taking over so he cannot use smiles. There's stuff like getting so pissed he can't even think of using it against BB until JACK points it out. There's the fight against the mind control bugs and facing Yuri. And then the final act is him trusting himself all over again. Yuya Sakaki is smiles. If he is not believing at 100% then that's that. There are only, like, four other characters that implement that mentality into their duels. It sucks because it is explicitly shown time and time again to be the answer to the show's conflicts. A whole city is turned, Kachidoki gets happy and stops punching dicks, Yuya becomes more capable, Heartland is brave and starts dueling again. But it's so strong, Yuya cannot be allowed to use it or else show ends too soon. Other characters can't use it or the show ends too soon. To duel for smiles is to have a golden gun. It becomes more and more insane an OP until it reaches a climax: You Cannot Use Smiles On Zarc Because That Would End The Show Too Early. The dragon king is defeated, but not really because the blatant message wasn't used on him. Individualism beat him, but egao will Really beat him. Egao OP pls nerf so it can be a presence in the show. Then there's individuals vs groups. I also dig this a lot, and we see it far more consistently. Yuya gets laughed at by society itself bc daddy. His first foe is an opinion leader. His dad is looked upon fondly not for being a pro duelist, but for being a pioneer.  A big, strong corporation is trying to take over You Show, the smaller school run by a single guy. Yuzu realizes her dad, a teacher, is not enough for her to learn what she needs so she seeks out a tutor who is shown to be a bit of a rebel. Yuya duels wacky schools. After Yuto becomes egao.wav, Yuya's first foe is a guy who got messed up by the institution he's at. Obelisk Force are goons running the same deck, trained to be little more than soldiers with their individuality stripped away. Yuya's pushed forward to continue being a pioneer even when pendulums become normalized. Synchro Year is all about big capitalistic society fucking over the poor. Prison, the defense force and the government are all evil and abuse their powers. Roger is shown to have power but overestimates his own intelligence. Serena, in this time, gets pointed out that her dueling is too by the books and Yugo's unique style can trample her so she needs to adapt and be herself. Reira gets a donut by Shinji, so she doesn't want to blast him, she's starting to not become a child soldier. Jack's entire thing is that he himself crawled out of his hell life. Academia is up next, and, yeah, more of what you'd expect: school's evil, society supports it, individuals have to escape it and form their own place to survive. BB, much like Kachidoki, is ruined by his own school. Doktor creates parasites that strip people from their free will. And finally, we are told via ham-hands that Zarc was made who he was because Society demanded more violence. oh my god. Oh and Ed and the others also escape the school's mentality. It's a neat message, the bit with Zarc is just. It's thematic, it doesn't substitute showing the character and explaining the escalation. But then in Synchro Year there's that bit where Yuya gets the egao gun and destroys the societal norms of Neo Domino 2 in one blast and now everything's better. Kachidoki is back and saved, but like, what does that mean? did he bail out of the physical abuse school his parents put him in?? The conflict is rich and interesting, and yet the payoff is so sudden, escalated beyond belief and never explored. Another bit is what the show actually tells us "take a step forward with courage" or something. Pioneering goes with that, Yusho and Yuya start something new and it can't end there, those two have to keep evolving and lead the way. That message then ties into the war conflict in a cool way, to keep moving forward and not wallow in the past. Academia may have destroyed Heartland, but Shun and Yuto are objectively in the wrong for trying to use violence to get revenge. Leo is later on shown to be bad, not because he committed war crimes (those are retroactively forgiven) but because he is doing all of this to get his daughter back, when that will only tarnish her efforts and legacy, thus bringing Zarc back. Yugo & Shun Vs The Molesting Bugs From Out Of Gx has Yugo staying in the past and only remembering the Rin he loved while Shun remembered Ruri but then pushed forward and claimed how he's changed since. Yuya keeping with his dad's style and not fighting with his own is also a way of this. Every member of the resistance is shown with this problem, every left-party member of Synchro is also basically mourning themselves instead of trying to push forward if you're viewing the show in right-wing eyes I guess. Yuya being sad for pasts mistakes is shown 100% to be bad and he should continue moving forward to solve the issues. It sometimes feels gross because the groups are evil, but only Roger gets comeuppance. Leo caused war crimes, but he's a tragic hero, Zarc is a demon but he's a tragic figure. Meanwhile Shun and the resistance lost it all, Shinji lives in an unfair world and they are presented much more palpably as in the wrong because they are fighting with violence. The makers of war are never punished.The messages are all very, very interesting... but they tie kinda badly to the plot. It basically turns smiles from a philosophy that empowers Yuya and saves people from spiraling into drones of society or revenge hunters, to a golden gun that kills society and sedates the lust for revenge. Villains Now here's Real Problems. The show mismanages its villain cast. You have Himika, basically leader of LDS and actively running a child soldier program and... eventually she's very sad for Reira and turns into a motherly figure. You have Kachidoki, who is the first to awaken the second level of Zarc in Yuya and... he leaves the story for almost two years, only to get a quick defeat so Yuya can have a win. LDS Trio, rival our main trio and have some deep personal beef with Shun, a new comrade to said trio... they never show up again. Shinji argues with Yuya for a bit and is gone forever. Roger is let to sit far and above everyone else, he gets his butt kicked by Reiji and is gone forever. Barret fleshes out Academia, could possibly be an anti-hero fighting for Serena and then he is gone forever before we knew him. Anyone else from Synchro just doesn't show up for the last third. We are introduced to Grace, Gloria, Ed and Kite and they all turn to Yuya's side at the same time in the one-cour half-arc. We finally reach Academia... there is BB, a one-and-done villain for five eps straight. There's bugs that have a loose thematic connection and are gone forever. There is Doktor who only did that bug shit before being banished. There's Yuri with the better killstreak and then there is Leo who is shown to have only been acting out of love, and has enough honor to remove Doktor's facehole. There are all these villains.. and their role is minimum or they are so far from the heroes they don't get to actually Do much before their upcoming defeats present them as weak-willed all along. Then we have fucking Zarc. Hitotsu Ni and all them memes. Basically He's a dragon dick. All along everything was his plan bwahaha except he couldn't see the individuality theme hitting so hard via Reira and Yuya teaming up with Ray. But who is Zarc? ... anyway, Zarc's duel is the biggest in the show (wait, is it? did it have more eps than BB?) but ho boy ho boy. His duel is shite. He just sits three 2v1s in a row without taking any form of damage, then slowly loses enough composure for an admittedly cool finisher, but, just. Eh. He encompasses the show's themes of individuality vs group via the group forcing him down a path of evil. He wallows in his past and his attempt to move forward via the creation of Pendulum and manipulation of his parts puts him in the same  shoes that society had back when he turned evil. Then he saw the value of true smiles while inside of a baby. The problem here is... we never saw the individual crumble. Zarc's biggest failure as a villain is, well, the duel actually, it's just terrible, but his other failure is that we don't see enough of him. He's a thematic concept, but a linchpin of it is him as an individual losing himself for the sake of entertainment. We never see who he was, which worked when he was in a rampage so we'd see him as a monster, but once Yuya is crying at hsi backstory, well, it just feels trite and lame. We cannot feel bad for Zarc, we never knew him, he might've been a huge asshole and that's why things escalated.A big problem with the show is its use of villains. There's just two types, the ones that get disposed of ridiculously quick and the ones that are master planners so far above the cast that they hardly actually interact (or even act) in the story, and whose defeats just end up as underwhelming. There's outliers here and there, but they're not interesting either and ultimately any payoff from the conflict they bring is either too small or not interesting enough. Zarc, the final villain, suffers from all those issues. Characters Reira is god-tier. She begins shy and meek, we instantly assume she is a Mokuba. She gets a few duels here and there but we don't see them, so she's a dueling Mokuba that's strong bc her bro's the strongest. There's something offputting of her, but we just don't see her enough. Then we enter Synchro and she's away from Reiji, she is panicking, stressed and quiet. Shinji gives her a donut and that seems okay, kids like sweets. Then comes Yuya thinking of defending her and the big stuff drops: a) she's not afraid of dueling, she's afraid of having to harm others with duels and thus doesn't want to decimate Shinji and put him in the apple factory. b) legit child soldier shit. JACK offers her advice because he sees his own sadness from when he was a child, Yuya also saw that in her, but ultimately Reiji is right: it's not pity what she needs, it's a drive to make her own choices. It's why not wanting to fight Shinji is so big. The show keeps going, and next she goes further and acts to Defend Serena, she helps her friends now via dueling, fighting her PTSD and it culminates in the last bit to her wanting to save everyone that she's willing to sacrifice herself to get Ray involved, even when her brother tells her that would not work. And she does, and at that point we get her maximum Individuality moment: she defied Reiji by bringing Ray, and she defies us by defining herself as a woman. "Fuck all of you, even the viewers, this is who I am" and she stands tall, she gives one last sacrifice because not even Ray is good enough and she seals Zarc away herself. Fucking badass. And her reward is just being a baby. It's interesting in that it means she will not have the traumatic past anymore, but it also seemingly means that Zarc will always be with her now and that the Reira we knew simply ceases to exist forever. For the character that I rooted on the most, that sucks, i want the characters I like to be happy and exist! Still, her journey is easily the best in the show. JACK ATLAS fits this show like a glove. "It doesn't matter how bad Arc V or 5D's get, JACK ATLAS will always be a good character." Him as King puts an interesting pressure, he pushes characters in interesting ways and is ultimately just an entertaining and good addition. Hiragi Yuzu, well, she was really good that first year! Her arc was great, how she knew more of Academia leading into her interactions with Serena, which ultimately motivate Serena, are pretty great. Her time with Yugo's fun, her role in the tournament is great. It is gross that she was a flagpole for Yuya to reach and kept being yanked away over and over again. After that beautiful motorcycle parry, she just feels wasted, and before that her interactions with the cast were direly limited. Serena was interesting, she only really existed for One season, but her role and relationship with the Lancers was fun while it lasted. I really wish they'd explored her dueling more. Ruri and Rin were waifus. Welp. Rest of the cast, just likeable, not used well enough, Gongenzaka hilariously has an ED where he is one of 3 characters on screen and during that ED's run he shows up less than ten times to interact with Yuya. Sawatari is my man, but yup, not much for him. Shun has an alright arc, not much feeling for him. His end is bonkers. Kite, Ed and Asuka just feel tacked on. They don't offer stuff that only they could, in fact you can fancast many other characters to fit their roles better, I personally would go with Shark, Misawa and Tyranno (maybe Asuka over Tyranno). Ed's duel with Yuya was pretty amazing, tho and I love it, but again, just feeling like you coulda slapped other characters in to better fit the roles they play out in AV. Yuri, he's a fun villain. I went on about the use of villains and why his Pro MLG Killstreak is kinda bad, but he was fun during it. The structure deck stuff was great. His finality is... "we don't have time, or ideas, to make him turn to good. Uhh, shonen shonen shonen, thematic thematic and shonen tropes." He just happened. Yugo, one of my boys. Love his fun attitude, love his blatant crush, his gags are great, he's just overall fun but it didn't feel like they went deep enough for him, specially with how the bug stuff ended. Yuto. That kid is a mess. There's a fairly easy to follow line for his attitude, but he switches as hard as Yuya does from egao, but whenever he is Actually Showing Up, he instantly does a switch in alignment. He doesn't feel consistent. He's messed up and actively ignores all his relationships except the one time he told Shun to trust Yuya. I feel there's an interesting, cowardly, character in there that we just don't get to see because he's more of a crutch to guide Yuya's hips over how his alignment shoul be in the current part of the story. Sakaki Yuya. Wiat, no, there's others i can talk about. Leo's a dummy. I don't mind him too much, but he is a super dummy. I love seeing Reiji get owned. Uh uhhh. fuck. Okay, so, Yuya. Not a great hero. I tolerate heroes that doubt themselves, I do, but jfc the kid changes minds far too often. And like I said, when he egaos right, it feels like he holds a magic gun. He's OP in dueling, therefore he gets nerfed via self-confidence because that's directly tied to his magic gun. That means he needs the help of others to regain confidence, these others include: Yusho, Yoko, Yuzu, Reiji, Jack Atlas and Reira. All yelling at him into his ear that he should believe in himself. Two of these are basically rivals, who should be sources of conflict, but instead they are major supporters of Yuya. The harshest conflict Yuya gets is himself. That's not that interesting when it's hardly himself who overcomes it, it's his massive support network getting through his thick skull. Over and over again. I like Yuya when he is confident. I don't like him when he's not. I hate him when he is becoming confident all over again since that means it's someone else pushing him.Cast is great. Reira is my favorite for very good storytelling happening with her. A lot feel wasted. The Core Conflict Badly paced, basically. Synchro Year feels wasted in retrospect, 50 eps to tell what 2 cours could, and Yuya isn't allowed to keep his development at all times for it. Leo is built up too much, and Zarc too little. It just feels like not enough build up, too much buildup and the villains getting shafted in both ways. There's a lot of exciting series of fights when years end, but it just doesn't pay off nearly as good as it promises. The Finale Confusing. But not intentionally so. We're not left to wonder what the world is, we are told by Leo what happened and we simply don't get to see it. It's not clear what happened to Zarc besides he smiled. Sad. But not intentionally so. Reira smiled, that means everything's good for her while the audience is sad that she's stuck as a baby. The Yugirls and Yubois are gone forever, but Shun accepted that and anyone that might miss Serena and Rin just aren't there, the people who see them are just shocked but never knew them. Shun is happy. Us, the audience, being sad isn't something being played with here. If Barret looked at an empty dorm room, then this would be a bittersweet ending. If the orphans started reading books Rin had marked, that'd be bittersweet. If Shun Showed Any Emotion That He Should Have Then That'd Be A Sad Ending. But it's not. Everyone accepts what happened with an egao. Us being sad isn't intentional, it is the show misinterpreting how we would react to 6 people fucking dying. Duel was alright kinda. Gates are bad. I love Yuya comboing into summon methods, but the gates don't do that, they just activate, use a monster in the grave and extra deck and summon a hybrid. That's not XYZ, that's not Synchro, that's kinda Fusion I guess. That's just not a combo into summon method,t hat's a cheap way to get any monster out. The final action duel race is a very neat concept. The duelists don't interact for the most part, feels like a waste. The pacing in it is also not great, stops too much. Catapult monsters fireworks is fun, I like that it's a final ATK manipulation because BUT YOU'LL STILL TAKE THE DAMAGE. Already talked about the worlds combining and NAC killing Serena in cold blood. Reiji is a terrible final opponent. Yugi vs Atem: Atem is the best duelist ever and is testing Yugi in a test of skills as those two have never fought and we still don't fully know Yugi's skills. Judai vs Yugi/Atem: Judai still needs to get his fun back, he loves fighting strong people and Yugi is The Strongest. Yusei vs Jack: those two have a lonstanding rivalry and the fight has futures at stake Yuma vs Astral: those two have never fought and relied on each other the whole time. Astral puts everyone's future on the line. These are all great back-and-forths, the opponent has an edge, the characters have chemistry and only Yusei vs Jack features rivals that have faced each other. Yuya vs Reiji... is Reiji sitting on his opening hand and denying Yuya's combos until he gets a big enough one. There's no real back and forth, Reiji is basically a rock. Those two have fought a bit, we return to their first fight place... like how the start of the arc also reused duel fields. Feels lazier than it does bookendy. Atem's goal is to see if Yugi is strong enough, and he's ready to stay with his friend if not. Yugi's goal is to beat down Judai's asshole and have fun. Jack's goal is to shatter Yusei's asshole so everyone can follow their dreams. Astral's goal is to have the greatest fight with Yuma ever. Reiji's goal is for Yuya to make his sister smile. Reiji blatantly and explicitly set this whole thing up for Yuya to win. He's loved Yuya's antics since forever, he supports him and he knows only Yuya can save everyone. While everyone else is like a karate master goign "lets talk with our fists!!", Reiji is more like a dad playing baseball with his kid and hoping loudly that the kid will bat the ball he's about to throw. And in doing so, the kid gets to the major leagues immediately.The duel's just not that interesting in setup, the plays are not well executed, the animation doesn't make the final action duel setpiece any justice, the resolution of conflict is confusing and relies on telling rather than showing and hoping the audience loves the themes enough and the fate of the yugirls and yubois is a grossly miss-communicated message. The Pro Test feels like an early concept since the pun is so good. I legit feel that Reiji's laugh suits Sawatari better. Imagine if his almost-mayor dad actually went "That Yuya duel was amazing!", Sawatari then laughing would be such a good way to end his character arc by accepting all that Yuya is. All in all? Disappointed. I like a lot of things, but the execution is ass. There's good bits, but as a whole the show falls apart. BB and Yuri, and Sergei and Yugo and Yuzu and Masumi and duel schools and fight club class and splatoon. So many good bits, but they do not flow well. They don't link to each other. They do not build up. The show fails to use its 3 year runtime. Disappointed.

[interkomitet]

Neither peace nor war. Evgeny Primakov on the situation in the Middle East

This morning he returned from Bahrain, where they discussed at several high meetings the events in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, which developed right before our eyes.

When attacking the ARAMCO plant, key considerations:

Any rebels can now be technologically advanced, the use of shock drones does not depend on the degree of “advancement” – it is cheap and simple;

Ansar Alla is not so much Iran’s proxy or Iran’s client, as the Hussites will fight without Iran. They do not consider themselves an illegitimate group that seized / took power in the country, but Iran, obviously, supports Ansar Alla and has influence on it;

The reason for the US sharp reaction to the attack is not only that the confrontation with Iran became one of the main ideas of American foreign policy, but also because the oil market suffered, suffered as much as it had never before, and the blow was on ARAMCO, the company in which there is a lot of American interest;

Previous attacks have even been rated differently inside the Gulf. Despite the sharp accusations against Iran, there were proposals not to rush to conclusions and to conduct an investigation from, among other things, KSA allies. Rhetoric and emotions are one thing, official accusations are another. I’ll clarify this not because they believe in the innocence of Iran, which, presumably, is behind the attacks. But because they do not want to commit themselves to starting a war – this is important;

The damage from this blow to the refineries is also evaluated differently: the United States is inclined to exaggerate it for political purposes, as it paints Iran in even darker “villainous” colors and exposes the United States as a guarantor of the stability of the market as a whole (with reserves sufficient to cover market deficit), KSA for political and economic purposes tend to downplay the damage (firstly, the humiliation from the “Holodroots” who have been fighting with since 2015, secondly, the damaged reputation of a stable producer and supplier, and the amount of damage should always be underestimated) ;

The position of “Iran has nothing to do with it” is strange, we wouldn’t have to raise the question this way, we insist that an open conflict should be avoided, no matter who starts it, we condemn the attacks, we don’t appoint the accused, we refer to the need Investigations were previously indicated by Gulf countries for previous dramatic events. The PRC is behaving in a similar way now. At the same time, we emphasize the destructiveness of military steps and the risks of the development of a military conflict and its spread in the region;

The main question is whether the war will be, whether the United States is ready for attacks on Iranian targets, on Iranian territory or on its proxy – the most important. As long as there is no investigation and its conclusions, we cannot agree that the strike is “retaliatory,” but this is little consolation: the argument about terms alone cannot prevent such a development of events. But I will write about this separately to everyone, so as not to immediately overload;

The KSA and the allies in the Gulf expect Russia to articulate its position with regard to Iran – “with us or not with us” – assuming that we have some special ties with Iran that are close to allied ones. This is a very unpleasant situation for us – we have no alliance with Iran and there is no such influence in this view either. Will there be a war with Iran? We pose the question directly, which many are shy of: the risk is great.

Summary: Iran’s proxies and clientele will be hit, as they see it in Washington and Riyadh, plus pressure on Europe will sharply increase to force the EU to end the story of the JCPOA.

We can rely on the fact that Trump is still not a “warrior”, but a “merchant” in terms of character and his mission. Tough negotiations with pressure on the brink of violence – yes. War as a goal and the practically set task of “regime change” is not.

At the same time, we will not fall into complacency – we remember that Trump gave the command to strike at the Syrian airfield, that is, a missile (presumably bomb) strike is still permissible. Another thing is that in the current White House they understand that this is not Syria, here a limited blow to targets on the territory of Iran will not be limited, an escalation will inevitably follow.

Therefore, it is unlikely that the United States will now launch attacks on Iran – it would surprise me very much as an example of real courage and dementia. Tehran’s “answer to answer” will be around the perimeter, where Iran has proxy forces. The costs are too high: the exit from the Persian Gulf will close, the Lebanese-Israeli border will light up, there are targets for strikes in Bahrain, Qatar (which is especially interesting because Qatar is under strong Iranian influence), Saudi Arabia and on and on and on and on and on other things.

Of course, Washington understands this. Dismissed John Bolton would now have developed violent activity – but he was fired.

At the same time, the United States must, are obliged to “respond,” since it has already been accused of attacks on ARAMCO Iran, since the last time the blow was canceled at the last moment in response to the downed drone, since so much was promised – this is the “Obama trap” when he described the “red lines” for Bashir Assad in Syria and immediately found himself in a dependent position on any provocations.

Another counterargument against the outbreak of the war against Iran or its “democratization” according to the Iraq model: Iran will be stronger, it is not so easy to cope with, and there is an election campaign in the United States. It would seem: fight and get votes on the principle of “unite around our leader in the face of a military threat,” but Trump collected votes, including because he promised not to get involved in foreign military adventures. And he does not want to lose these voices, fighting for allies on the other side of the Earth. In addition, a military operation will be used by his opponents in Congress, you can’t carry out a strike on Iran as a continuation of operations in the wake of 9/11, for this you will need to obtain permission from Congress, at least after the fact. Guess what Trump will give Congress.

I repeat: let’s not argue now in the expert discussion with the terms “answer” and “answer” – this looks exactly like that in the vision of the KSA and the USA, even if there is no investigation and no formal basis for blaming anyone. We are talking about the policies and steps that the United States and KSA will take (plus allies and satellites). Consolation in terms is weak.

In this case, the strike is very likely, and I believe it will happen, but it will happen on targets in Syria and / or Yemen, which will be designated as Iranian and military. This will partly satisfy the “sense of revenge” and “justice” and will not lead to a big war. But this, obviously, will not be the final. The blow will be supported from a political point of view: the US’s efforts to withdraw Europe from the “nuclear deal” with Iran (JCPOA) will be sharply strengthened, most likely the EU will simply twist its hands without sentiment, using all possible levers of influence and pressure to finally bury the JCPOA – Washington believes that such sanctions pressure that leads to the destruction of the Iranian economy is a good way to resolve the Iranian issue, albeit not by a quick blitzkrieg.

But in fact, the problem can be solved differently, and, I think, there are not very many ways. More on this later.

The change of regime in Iran is a real fetish, first for the USA and Israel, who cannot reconcile with what happened in the country in 1979, now for KSA. The relations of the Arab countries with Iran were also dramatic, the mistrust was largely explained by the idea of ​​exporting the Islamic revolution, the support of Shiite communities, which was always and reasonably, by the way, was assessed as a way of interfering in internal affairs. Shiite appearances in the same Bahrain in 2011 were obviously supported from abroad, despite the fact that the king and the country’s leadership insisted on the principle of “citizenship above religion,” because in the same Iran, during the Iran-Iraq war, Saddam failed to split off the Arab minority so that it goes over to its side: this instrument is familiar to Iran.

One must always keep in mind that in this whole story there are a lot of interesting people, and not only in the Gulf. I’m still waiting, when, finally, somewhere in Britain, as a result of an investigation of some conditional BillingRat, it turns out that the attacks on the tankers and the ARAMCO refineries are Russians – with photos and geolocation data from the Tsarevokokshaysky camel-landing division. What colleagues yawned such a topic? There are Salafi groups, there are separate “parties of the war” in Iran, KSA, Qatar, which themselves fish in the muddy salt water of the Gulf, there is, in the end, Israel, which has long pushed the United States to understand that it is time to change power in Tehran or bomb Iran into such a state that it no longer has the opportunity to support any Hezbollah and certainly for the development of missile weapons. At the same time, Israel is establishing relations with KSA, the Iranian direction is strengthening these relations. Some Gulf countries also believe that a more rational and pragmatic policy towards Israel should be pursued. And the essence of the Trump / Kushner plan for the Middle East is precisely the establishment of relations between Israel and the Gulf countries, primarily the KSA. At the same time, they forget in the Gulf – this is such a political aberration that in the event of a real military conflict, Israel will never “fit in” in defense of the KSA, Bahrain, Emirates and others, even if Israel’s contribution to the outbreak of war becomes significant: for Israel, the Gulf countries are very Really understandable reasons can be a market, they can be elements of external security, but they will remain a “bargain” anyway, Israel will not intercede for a conditional Dubai due to the fact that Iran’s Zolfikar or Shahab-2 flew in, and Israel itself will be rikryt systems PRO / defense, and even nuclear weapons, even if hit by Hezbollah attacks.

We never claim that Israel or any other unknown force hit the ARAMCO refinery. We argue that the conflict in the Gulf will not end with anything good for the Gulf countries, and that external players have much less risks – therefore, their fearlessness and determination can play a bad joke with the Gulf.

The reasons for the confrontation between Iran and KSA are numerous, a breakthrough of books and articles has been written about this. I would not want to write another sheet: we restrict ourselves to simplifying this to the classical competition of regional superpowers, with religious leaven. But in the end, you need to understand that attempts to actively “change power” in Tehran will open the door to hell.

Note that the last escalation of the attacks by “unknown people” in the Gulf began when the United States announced its withdrawal from the JCPOA. A joint comprehensive plan of action is not just an agreement of several countries, it has been passed through the UN Security Council and in this sense it has become part of international law. And in principle, one can assume the withdrawal of someone from some kind of bilateral or multilateral agreements, but we would like our foreign ministry to emphasize, constantly emphasize, talked about it from every iron and coffee maker: leaving the JCPOA is a violation of the Security Council resolution UN. Are we really so afraid of undermining the reputation and strength of the UN and the Security Council? It’s far worse, it will not be worse. And in the minds of European politicians it should be imprinted that this should not be done, illegally, illegitimate.

It’s no secret that conditional “liberals” and “conservatives” in Iran opposed the JCPO in the opposite way: Rouhani proposed a way to gradually lift sanctions and restore the country’s economy and improve people’s living standards. “Conservatives” (in fact, conservatives are literally everything, just some more conservative) said that you can’t agree with the “Great Satan” in anything and nothing – they’ll still be deceived. And when the sanctions remained in force, and some returned, and some were added, it turned out that the “conservatives” were right: “now let’s do it our way” – this is how the United States lost to the Iranian “liberals”, and the power groups led the game to escalation, because “appeasement” (in this case, the Americans by the Iranians) failed. All the recent statements by Tehran about increasing the degree of enrichment, increasing the number of working centrifuges and so on are the continuation of the Iranian story about increasing pressure on Europe. But the EU is at an impasse: either take the side of the United States and go on to further aggravate, lose the opportunity to pursue sovereign policy towards Iran (and, in general, globally as a whole). Or resist Washington’s desire to squeeze Iran and put up with Washington, which is more difficult. They developed a special financial mechanism to trade with Iran without intermediate settlements in dollars and posting money through American-controlled banking institutions, but it did not work in reality.

But Tehran will continue to aggravate. Just because he’s ready. To what extent no one knows, including in Washington no one yet understands this. And these threats from Washington and increased pressure are a way to achieve this certainty. If the North Korean political elite is characterized by a desire to calmly and safely equip their lives and the United States has something to offer: trade, the attractiveness of capitalism (even without capitalism itself), promises of security (which are also hard to believe), satiety and prosperity, reconciliation with the South, then the onslaught-bargaining technology is stalling with Iran: what can the USA offer there, what ancient Persia longs for more than will? Freedom of the press? Secularism? But in Iran, these problems and needs are not so acute, and therefore not so attractive. The US and KSA (with the paradoxical shoulder of Israel) can count on a “regime change” only in the very long term, if it takes a long time to pull the strap of constant external interference in Iran’s internal affairs, ruin its economy, manipulate the Iranian standard of living, engage in brainwashing, propaganda and counter-propaganda … Wait a minute, but all this was already without it, did it ever work in Iran? Moreover, in the new multidimensional polycentric world, there is no such need to measure everything according to the Washington time: and now China is entering into a strategic partnership agreement with Iran.

In fact, the idea “if only there was no war” and the rejection of an active regime change can save the world and the world – in both meanings of the word. It’s just that it’s already difficult for several players to abandon the very idea of ​​changing the regime, so let them remember that after 1979 we also got along somehow and traded.

http://interkomitet.com/about-the-committee/blogs/evgeny-primakov/neither-peace-nor-war-evgeny-primakov-on-the-situation-in-the-middle-east/