#and since yesterday the humidity has been in the high 60% as well so everything is sticky and gross and BWAH | Explore Tumblr Posts and Blogs

kansascityhappenings · 5 years

Text

Joe’s Weather World: Our cold front and Dorian is stuck for now (TUE-9/3)

Good morning…a rather hot and humid day is on tap for the area as we try to make a run towards 90° ahead of a cold front. This front will sweep the hot and humid weather away for a couple of days and allow some cooler and drier air to move in. Tomorrow looks outstanding. Today though will remind you that even though meteorological summer is overwith…astronomical summer continues for another 3 more weeks or so.

Dorian is also in the news and has been stalled for about the last 24 hours or so…it should start to get tugged northbound today.

Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny with hotter weather Highs near 90° with heat index values close to 100°

Tonight: A slight chance of some showers later this evening but turning cooler and drier with lows approaching 60° tomorrow

Tomorrow: Nice with sunshine and highs near 80°

Thursday: Cool in the morning…near 60° with highs closer to 85°

Discussion:

Let’s start with our cold front…

It will move through later this afternoon but the cooler and drier air is going to lag behind the front a bit…you should notice that trend more so later tonight towards 12AM into tomorrow morning with a drier push to the air.

The front is actually coming through the area at a pretty decent time to fuel of storms…roughly near peak heating…but the data today isn’t too supportive of storm formation along the front. There may well be a cap in place. Sometimes you can get a little “sunset magic” to happen and pop a few but the data this morning isn’t so optimistic. I think the chance is about 20% at this point.

There may be some isolated activity later this evening behind the front as well.

We’ll be in the drier and more comfortable air tomorrow…and into Thursday AM before we trend warmer again to finish the week ahead of another front coming in later Friday.

Overall not much moisture is expected through the middle>end of the next work week.

Temperatures will be bouncing around…although no overly cool weather is expected in that timeframe based on today’s data. If anything temperatures may trend to above average levels.

Here is the CPC forecast for the next 8-14 days…don’t disagree with their idea of probabilities of above average temperatures for most of the 1st 1/2 of the month.

On to Dorian…

The storm’s position hasn’t change much at all since yesterday’s morning’s blog, which is remarkable really. A near stationary storm just raking Grand Bahama Island. I’ve seen some videos from the northern Bahamas and it doesn’t look good. What wasn’t ripped to shreds by wind has likely suffered storm surge damage that in some cases may have approached 20 feet in some areas…and the elevation of that island isn’t all that much to begin with.

Dorian is definitely not as healthy today as previous days. It’s still a formidable hurricane though but has markedly become less intense over the past 24 hours.

The eye has become less concentric…larger and in general a bit more ragged looking. In reality the storm may not even be as strong as what the advisory states.

Being hit by a major hurricane is bad enough but being hit for such a prolonged period of time yesterday through repeated high tides and crashing waves is very unusual to outright rare. That’s what the folks on Grand Bahama Island dealt with yesterday. Repeated storm surges and inches of rain.

This video is from Freeport, Bahamas on Monday morning. Water has risen to the second floor of this home.

Keep watching The Weather Channel for LIVE coverage on #Dorian. pic.twitter.com/CS6dvA89Bg

— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) September 3, 2019

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

You can see the extent of damage from this special view with a different type of satellite/radar product meant to penetrate the clouds…this is the extent of the flooding. It’s called SAR radar and it stands for Synthetic Aperture Radar which sends a frequency through clouds/rain to see what’s happening on the ground apparently. Never heard of it before. Fascinating stuff.

#HurricaneDorian has affected Bahamas heavily on Monday, with vast areas hit with #flooding, including the Grand Bahama International Airport, Freeport. ICEYE #SAR satellite image from 11:44AM local time. Please, stay safe! (Y: coastline. W: roads. Source: OpenStreetMap.) pic.twitter.com/ruXau8QhKn

— ICEYE (@iceyefi) September 2, 2019

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Notice how is connects to the elevation of the island.

This is a topographic map of Grand Bahama island.

Green: 0-15 ft Yellow: 15-30 ft Red: 30+ ft

Dorian's storm surge is estimated at 18-23 ft, which would submerge everything in green and significant parts of the yellow. Hopefully most people managed to move to safe locations. pic.twitter.com/lyoFA8mPnV

— Robert Rohde (@RARohde) September 2, 2019

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

While the worst of Dorian will stay offshore this is still going to bring quite a bit of wind and rain to the more coastal areas…

There is still a weekend risk of landfall somewhere along the eastern coastline or outer islands of North Carolina it appears.

And storm surge flooding is possible up the FL coastline towards VA too…here is one example.

Here is the latest information on the impacts from Hurricane #Dorian#chswx #savwx #scwx #gawx pic.twitter.com/ygq1NuB2tV

— NWS Charleston, SC (@NWSCharlestonSC) September 3, 2019

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Dorian will continue to make national headlines for the rest of the week.

Our feature photo comes from Tiffany Lanier out in KCK of the sunrise this morning.

Joe

from FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV | News, Weather, Sports https://fox4kc.com/2019/09/03/joes-weather-world-our-cold-front-and-dorian-is-stuck-for-now-tue-9-3/

from Kansas City Happenings https://kansascityhappenings.wordpress.com/2019/09/03/joes-weather-world-our-cold-front-and-dorian-is-stuck-for-now-tue-9-3/

0 notes

kansascityhappenings · 6 years

Text

Joe’s Weather World: The clouds are tough to shake and a late week storm (MON-3/25)

The month of March is rapidly fading away and after a chilly day today (by comparison to average) we’ll be around average Tuesday and then nicely above average heading into the end of the week. A rather typical spring Plains storm will be the major issue this week. Ahead of the feature we warm-up and then behind we turn colder. Gardener’s take note…there is a likely hard freeze coming Sunday morning. This too is very typical.

Forecast:

Today: Lots of clouds with some breaks showing up during the afternoon hopefully. A real struggle to warm up with highs 50-55°.

Tonight: Variable clouds and cool with lows well into the 30s

Tuesday: Still fighting some morning clouds but more sunshine is expected with highs 55-60°

Wednesday: Warmer (warmest of the year) with a lot more wind. Highs near or even above 70°.

Discussion:

As we dive farther into the spring season a bigger clash of air masses occur. This is driven n response to the increased daylight…the season itself…the higher sun angle the retreating jet stream and a bunch of other things. The air towards the south gets warmer and warmer…and more humid. The air to our north is still holding on to some winter characteristics but those are gradually fading away. When a storm moves into the middle of the country…the two air masses start to come together. One drawn farther south…the other farther north…and we can get some rather powerful systems…and wet ones too.

As we head to the end of the week this is forecast to happen. We are expecting a nice warm-up…the a sharp cool down. The other common aspect of these systems is the wind. Spring is the windiest time of the year here in the Plains I think…and this week that will be a “thing”. I’m expecting 25-40 MPH gusts on Wednesday and Thursday. That allows the warm air above us to “mix” down to the ground and it also allows moisture from the south to work it’s way northwards.

I sort of illustrated both those things yesterday in the blog and there have been no changes with regard to that.

Systems like these, and even for the one yesterday do have severe weather with them. Yesterday storms lit up in SE NE and there was even a report of a brief tornado SSW of the St Louis area. There were other hail prolific storms in Texas and the DFW area, which seems to be getting bigger and bigger hail storms over the past few years got hit again last night (or at least parts of it did especially on the north side).

Crazy !hail in Frisco TX. @ReedTimmerAccu pic.twitter.com/eVMhGYrwq3

— trey hardeman (@treyh) March 24, 2019

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Were you keeping track of the damaging hail event last evening in the northern DFW Metroplex? Here is a preliminary review of Denton, Collin and Rockwall Counties in Texas. Many other areas from Texas to Missouri experienced damaging hail yesterday. #txwx #hailstorm pic.twitter.com/iq2BXyzBmq

— RadarOmega (@RadarOmega_WX) March 25, 2019

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

So the seasons are changing and the weather is responding.

The next storm for us has slowed a bit over the past couple of days. So as a result this will be more of a Thursday/Friday thing mostly. The risk of stronger storms, even locally, isn’t out of the question on Friday especially…although there may be a strong storm or two around even on Thursday. Yesterday the weaker cells that moved through after daybreak actually created some small hail up towards Excelsior Spring and the Kearney area. So it doesn’t take much to get some hail at least.

I could see how that could happen on Thursday in whatever forms and zips towards the NNE or NE. How will this affect the Opening Day forecast. Well as I mentioned yesterday it may not be perfect out there, especially into the early afternoon…and I can’t promise perfectly dry weather. Some storms/showers should be around the area…but since whatever disturbance that will create that activity doesn’t exist (the main storm does…the small scale features doesn’t)…it’s impossible to say IF the I-35 corridor will be a target or not. There should be some activity the issue is how widespread is it…and will the “K” area be a target or will it get a glancing blow.

While we know the set-up is there on Thursday the devil in the details part is still to be worked out.

Then on Friday a more traditional severe weather set-up may establish itself in the Plains area…and we’ll ahve to watch that more carefully. There will be a lot of wind shear out there. Mostly in the “speed” department. This is when the wind speeds increase with height. Also somewhat in the direction department as well…this occurs when the winds gradually turn from the SE/S to the SW or even W. This gets the atmosphere boiled up and capable of producing severe storms with enough instability. There also may be a surface low somewhere out there in eastern KS…that too gets the severe weather engine primed.

So it’s worth watching that risk as well.

Here is a look at the EURO forecast (and this may change a few more times) of a potential scenario for Friday.

There will be colder air to the north of this system which may create snow somewhere towards the north of KC at some point…that too should be watched…but it’s a set-up that should be monitored.

Early spring set-ups though are somewhat tricky…there are usually issues with just how much moisture is present and the features have to be somewhat well-timed to maximize the instability. There is a question about instability as well in terms of will there be any advance type stuff to mess up the atmospheric set-up when things are more ready to pop. Just way too many questions but something to pay attention too later this week.

Regardless this weekend will be colder…especially Saturday into Sunday morning and the risk of a hard freeze is there on Sunday especially…maybe Monday too.

Oh and I wouldn’t be shocked if snowflakes aren’t too far away from us at some point Saturday AM with the colder air rushing southwards.

Just another thing…

Finally a note about the “name” of the blog. If you’re observant you noticed I changed it to Joe’s Weather World. The reason for the change is that I have a podcast by the same name…and there was thought about putting everything under the same “umbrella” if you will. So there is the change. For now on Joe’s Weather Blog will be “Joe’s Weather World”.

If you want to listen to the various podcasts that I’ve done…including the most recent one with my colleague Andy Bailey from the NWS (concerning the role the NWS plays in the weather enterprise) feel free to check out this link. Hit the play button and you should be good to go.

https://art19.com/shows/joes-weather-world/embed

They should start to get updated about twice per month or so as I can think of other things to talk about. I’ll attempt to get guests to join me too…I think the next one will be with our newest meteorologist Garry Frank who debuted this past weekend and formally takes over my shift this coming weekend. You’ll see him every so often on the evening shows too…perhaps doing a live shot or a 5 or 6PM weathercast.

Our feature photo comes from Jeff Milan up towards Parkville of the flooding that has been happening.

Joe

from FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV | News, Weather, Sports https://fox4kc.com/2019/03/25/joes-weather-world-the-clouds-are-tough-to-shake-and-a-late-week-storm-mon-3-25/

from Kansas City Happenings https://kansascityhappenings.wordpress.com/2019/03/25/joes-weather-world-the-clouds-are-tough-to-shake-and-a-late-week-storm-mon-3-25/

0 notes

kansascityhappenings · 6 years

Text

Joe’s Weather Blog: School Day less than 1 week away + coping with storm anxiety (FRI-4/27)

Good morning…some nice weather coming up for the next few days as Spring is really starting to settle into the area now, Next week will be more humid overall…but for the next few days the dew points will continue to be very comfortable. Saturday will be the cooler of the weekend days…but again a dry forecast is at hand.

Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and mild with highs into the 70s

This weekend: Mostly sunny and not as warm but still good with highs in the 60s and lows around 40°

Monday: Warmer and breezy with highs in the 70s to near 80°

Discussion:

Not really much to talk about in the short term…next week will be wetter and stormier but how we do regarding those storms and the severity of them with respects to KC remains to be seen and it’s too early to really dive into that at this point. Wednesday and Thursday may be the days to watch…

Obviously Thursday is of concern for the kids for School Day at the K

For the 20th year, FOX 4 will be presenting another new and exciting science show at the K. It’s no secret that attendance has been poor this year…between the Royals slow start and the miserable weather there hasn’t been a lot of reason to get excited about baseball this year.

Next Thursday however, aside from Opening Day, one of the largest crowds of the season will be in attendance and the crowd will be over 15,000 screaming kids. Each year they swarm School Day and watch the Largest Weather Show In The World. They learn about weather, obviously and even some chemistry. We try to weave in some thermodynamics too! If it sounds complicated to pull off…it can be. The kids though love it and we typically do several big experiments…with lots of explosions and kids love explosions!

The idea started more than 20 years ago. We did a couple of years of shows at JOCO Community College. 3 shows scattered through 1 day. Two shows for kids and one family show. We knew we were onto something when the shows were sold out so fast. Those shows tended to be more video heavy.

Back then the Royals had some very small School Day shows…when they approached us, we wanted to make this a bigger deal and reach out to more kids. A connection was made and now we pack them in.

The gates open at 8:30 and hundreds of school buses from all over the area. some driving for hours, come to the show. The actual show starts at 10AM and features some education…quiz questions, lots of on field demonstrations and a lot of fun. This show concept is now been brought to TV stations and other baseball teams, minor and major, across the country…all because of the work of FOX 4 and especially Chief Meteorologist Mike Thompson. This has been his baby for the last 20 years or so and he pours his heart into the production of the show for months…the show is next Thursday the 3rd and on Friday the 4th, he’s gathering information about making the following years show better and bigger.

Each year we do a variety of popular experiments. Some years everything is flawless…other years things sometimes don’t work. Some experiments require very little wind…sometimes in KC that doesn’t work out. We just roll with the changes. Dozens of volunteers help with the production. Then after the hour long show…kids go out to the parking lot where a huge Science related exhibition is held. 30-40+ other exhibitors are out there teaching kids other things about science and weather.

As you can see…it’s a huge undertaking.

Now let’s hope for dry weather. We’ve been internally concerned for about a week or so about the potential for storms and that concern continues…will it rain during the show? Way to early to say. We’ve had one show done in the rain and one show called because of snow! We do have a “rain show” prepared just in case however. We’ll cross that bridge though later next week.

Meanwhile there are still plenty of tickets to the show available. All you need is a ticket for the game and you get FREE admission to the show.

For more information go here

and from the Royals…go here

Meanwhile another aspect of teaching weather to kids, and for me to adults as well…is trying to relieve storm anxiety. Next Friday is a rather significant Weather Anniversary in KC. It will mark the 15th year since the KC Tornadoes that happened on 5/4/2003. I’ve written about this is the past and I’ll have a lot more about it next week but many still remember that day vividly.

Some also get anxiety from storms…and yesterday I noticed some interesting information regarding how folks can try to ease their anxiety about thunderstorms and what can happen during the storms. This information is from the NWS in Norman, OK…and area of the country where there are typically so many storms to begin with…although they’ve yet to be hit by a tornado so far in 2018 (a record).

This information is from that office…maybe you’ll find it useful or know someone who will.

Advance preparation – thinking about where you will take shelter, making sure you have several ways to get weather warnings and information, and having a plan for you and your family – can help reduce your fear and stress levels when storms are in the area. Planning and preparation puts you in control of your situation and can make the storms a little less scary.

Think about what stresses you out the most about severe weather. For some people, it’s the sound of thunder, the flashes of lightning or the roar of the winds. For others, it’s the anticipation and uncertainty about what might happen to them or their family. If there is something that makes your fears worse that you can control, this might help you.

Learn about the storms. Understand how they are forecast and what the various watch, warning and advisory terms mean. Follow the National Weather Service severe weather outlooks and forecasts online and learn about the science that goes into those severe weather predictions. Attend a free NWS storm spotter training class to learn more about tornadoes and severe storms.

Many people who are afraid of storms want all the information they can get their hands on when severe weather is in the forecast. With social media, there are many sources of weather information to choose from. Some are considered official sources, like the NWS, your favorite TV station or local TV meteorologist, or your local emergency management or public safety agencies in your community, and these are generally good places to get weather information. A small percentage of social media forecasts tend toward the extreme or worst case scenario when forecasting severe weather. If you have storm anxiety, these might make things worse.

Visit your local National Weather Service office. Meet the forecasters who are working around the clock to watch for dangerous weather and who have your back during severe weather.

Make a tornado safety plan with your family. On a sunny day with no storms in the forecast, figure out where you will take shelter if a tornado is coming your way. Practice getting you, your family and your pets to that safe place. Put together a safety kit that has the supplies you would need if you had to take shelter.

Plan how you and your family will stay in contact in case you lose electricity, phone service, cable or satellite service, cell service or internet service. Develop a communication plan in case you are separated.

Make sure you have at least three different ways to get a warning. This can include local television, NOAA Weather Radio, phone apps, outdoor warning sirens, community notification systems, etc

Learn about your local warning systems in your community – sirens, mass notification systems, etc – and how they work.

Find a way to see radar data and learn to track the storms yourself. There are lots of apps that provide detailed radar data, and some of them will even plot your current location so you will always know where you are in relation to the storms. You can also access free radar data on the National Weather Service website and on your favorite local TV station’s website.

Learn your local geography – nearby cities and towns, counties, interstates and highways – to make it easier to track the storms as they move through the area. Understanding where the storms are and where they’re going can make severe weather much less stressful.

end text.

Feel free to share that information with anyone, especially children.

Our feature photo is from Paul Smith of the very neat halo that occurred around the sun yesterday.

Halos are caused by the suns light passing through cirrus clouds up around 20-30,000 feet in the air. The clouds are made of ice crystals. This particular halo is called a 22° halo when it fully circles the sun. The get this moniker when the ring around the sun has a radius of about 22°.

The halos you see are caused by both refraction, or splitting of light, and also by reflection, or glints of light from these ice crystals. The crystals have to be oriented and positioned just so with respect to your eye, in order for the halo to appear.

They can occur on full moon nights as well…although something for the future…since the full moon isn’t as bright as the full sun…the moons halo is mostly colorless, while the sun’s halo will reveal colors. The inner part of the halo is more sharp while the outer more diffuse. The sky surrounding the halo is also somewhat darker compared to outside the halo.

The more you know.

Joe

from FOX 4 Kansas City WDAF-TV | News, Weather, Sports http://fox4kc.com/2018/04/27/joes-weather-blog-school-day-less-than-1-week-away-coping-with-storm-anxiety-fri-4-27/

from Kansas City Happenings https://kansascityhappenings.wordpress.com/2018/04/27/joes-weather-blog-school-day-less-than-1-week-away-coping-with-storm-anxiety-fri-4-27/

0 notes