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mariacallous · 2 years

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The lexicon is lost for synonyms for mayhem, havoc, chaos and pandemonium. The front pages of all the newspapers and their websites that led the way to this abyss have used them all up. Those who backed Liz Truss, those who engineered Brexit, those forever calling for cuts to the public realm – the Mail even whooping with glee at her catastrophic, market-killing budget – “At last a true Tory budget!” – shouted as loud for her demise, without a heartbeat’s pause for shame or remorse.

Truss is gone. The ideological hobgoblins she brought in and others of her fraternity turned on her. It’s not been “take back control” but out of control. Even two more years of this Tory disaster is unthinkable. Whether it’s tax cuts splurging on the rich, or the return by the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, to thumb-screw austerity, the country can’t take either option. Nor will markets be much soothed as long as the party that enabled all this and drove us over the Brexit cliff remains in charge of our weakening economy.

The question is whether Labour, Lib Dems (and moderate Tories) can drive a stake through the heart of her extreme brand of libertarian, state-destroying, Europe-baiting, austerity politics. Strike it dead so it never resurrects, so no one ever tries it again any more than they would advocate Stalinism. Look at where it has taken us: Cameron and Osborne’s cuts at a time of recession, when every precedent said it was time to invest, led to negative growth in household income, and the UK performing worse than any other country in Europe bar Greece and Cyprus. Post-financial crash, incomes in France grew by 34% and in Germany by 27%, while ours fell by 2%, according to the Resolution Foundation.

Look what the Tories’ Brexit did. The British economy fell faster behind those in the EU: it was 90% of the size of Germany’s in 2016, and now it has fallen to 70%. Our trade to the EU has fallen by 16%.

But Britain’s loss has been far greater than those whom Truss liked to call “bean counters”, with their “abacus economics”, can measure. Reputation is priceless, though it too is weighed on the scales of the mercurial markets’ confidence in our debts. No reputation manager can fix the shame of being laughed at abroad. Sober countries look on amazed at how the Conservative party – yes, the party of bowler hats, the Carlton club, black and white balls, garden fete fundraisers – has melded into the realm of disreputables such as Trump, Bolsonaro, Berlusconi and Giorgia Meloni.

Never forgive, never forget, Keir Starmer says. It’s the duty of social democrats to bury that ideology and remind Britain who they really are. They are the postwar consensus that Thatcher tried to uproot. All but relatively few are essentially the Labourites of Wilson and Attlee, and Tories of council house-builder Harold Macmillan, and Edward Heath, who guided us skilfully into the EU. They are not Truss-type revolutionaries. The permanent bright red line between the parties always showed up the Tories as protectors of the better-off, anti-NHS, anti-progressive social reforms, cutting taxes for a smaller state – but not off-the-scale wreckers like this breed, nurtured on Thatcherism and Euro-hostility.

The evil potion of the great Brexit lie, imbued with wartime myths of British exceptionalism, that wildly misled so many is now wearing off. Labour should seize the moment without fear to keep reminding voters what harm the Tories’ particularly pernicious brand of Brexit has done to them. This time the politics of the Tory party, in all its egregious forms, is not distant Westminster night-time scuffles in mysterious voting lobbies but an ideology that is doing appalling damage to every household, in ways everyone understands all too well.

Even if benefits are uprated with inflation, poorer households will suffer the biggest fall in real disposable incomes on record, wiping out all the gains of the last 20 years, according to the Resolution Foundation. Poorer households are about to face “a catastrophically bad year”. This Tory generation, from 1980 onwards, will turn Britain into the most unequal country in Europe, bar Bulgaria.

Use these facts again and again, rub Tory noses in the shame of what they have done.

Now Tory MPs face even more painful votes than fracking. Fearing for their seats, they didn’t want their names on local leaflets as frackers, and nor will they want their names listed as voting for 10% to 15% cuts to everything: the NHS already gets less per capita than in 2010, schools already spend less per pupil, roads have deeper potholes, social care has all but collapsed – so will they vote for worse? Nor will that bonfire of EU regulations look appetising on hostile election leaflets if they vote for cuts to food safety, environment, working rights, clean water and air. Each swing of the axe of austerity will mean more revolting Tory MPs adding to the Westminster bedlam.

In other words, it can’t happen. This has to stop. Two years more will break everything. The Tory MP Charles Walker appears to have their measure. On Wednesday he called the government “an absolute disgrace” and railed against “talentless people” in the cabinet. Some may see him as a viable interim leader. But what we need is an election.

Labour needs to press home a deep political and social culture change. Make sure rogue conservatism is forever seen as an alien creature, nation-damagingly un-British. The Tory media – the Sun, Mail, Telegraph, GB News and Murdoch’s TalkTV – will find they must adapt: it’s too much to expect remorse, but they should consult their marketing departments about how far beyond the pale of most readers’ current state of mind they should go. The wise will row back from the mania of a failed experiment they urged on. Hard years of repair lie ahead, but these are different times, Keir Starmer times, now.

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allthebrazilianpolitics · 2 years

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Will Bolsonaro do a Trump in Brazil post-election?

The presidential election in Brazil is turning out to be a cliffhanger with the odds-on-favourite, the leftist former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, faring far worse than expected against the right-wing incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the first round of voting held on October 2.

Predictably, this has given rise to speculation as to whether Bolsonaro, in the event of losing the election in the run-off to be held on October 30, will lead an ‘uprising” in Brazil much like the attack on the US Capitol instigated by then president Donald Trump in January 2021.

There are many reasons cited for these apprehensions about how the elections in Brazil may end or get upended.

#brazil #politics #brazilian politics #brazilian elections #democracy #jair bolsonaro #brazilian elections 2022 #mod nise da silveira #image description in alt

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kyndaris · 4 months

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The Never Changing Nature of Humanity and War

As another year ends, I look back over the major events that defined it and despair. Humanity seems desperate to repeat the same mistakes of old. Though there are moments when we shine, we are still motivated by greed, jealousy and pride. Look no further than the two wars currently being fought, the posturing in the Pacific and how little our world has done to combat climate change. Still, I suppose things could be worse. We might, after all, be suffering the effects of a nuclear winter (except no-one yet has the cajones to start such a huge chain reaction just yet).

But I digress.

January 2023 was a mess of events. Here in Australia, news of Pope Benedict passing away was only in headlines on New Year's Day. Other notable deaths included George Pell (a cardinal who was sent to prison for child sexual abuse in 2019 but who had his convictions later quashed) and the former king of Greece. From there, the world spiralled with Europe enduring very warm temperatures for winter (turns out 2023 was the hottest year on record!), Jacinda Ardern resigned from being Prime Minister of New Zealand/ Aotearoa. In Brazil, Bolsonaro tried to pull a Trump by stoking a Capitol-riot-style insurrection. This was later met be counter protesters.

As the year progressed, Kevin McCarthy was elected as speaker to the House of Representatives after going through fifteen rounds of voting. He was later removed and later replaced by another Republican: Mike Johnson. News of his Kevin McCarthy's unsuccessful bids were later drowned out by the shooting down of a Chinese air balloon. This led to several other unidentified objects to be shot down, which later turned out to be weather balloons set up by civilian scientists.

The United Kingdom enjoyed protests and strikes among public servants due to rising costs of living. Madrid protested their leftist government. Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's First Minister, resigned.

But in case the first quarter of the year wasn't exciting enough, Mother Nature also wanted to have a little fun by sending a cyclone towards New Zealand (Aotearoa), with many residents suffering from flash-flooding. Oh, and there was an earthquake too!

An earthquake also hammered Turkiye and Syria. What's particularly telling, though, was the fact most of the humanitarian aid was directed to and more focused on the citizens of Turkiye rather than Syria. It lefts thousands dead and millions were displaced. Thankfully, though, it didn't much impact this blogger's trip overseas as our tour stayed primarily in the western portion of Turkiye and din't venture too far south.

From there, we saw the rise of the H5N1 avian flu, killing huge swathes of domestic and wild birds. The flu also had outbreaks in mink farms. So, although COVID-19 might be in the rearview mirror, there are plenty of new diseases ready to take its place! Like the zombie dear disease which as been spreading in Yellowstone! Essnetially, though, it's a chronic wasting disease with symptoms such as drastic weight loss, stumbling, listlessness and other neurological symptoms. While there are no current reported cases of this in humans, studies suggest it could pose a risk to anyone who eats meat from infected animals.

Of course, one should never forget that COVID-19 is still rampant around the world. We've all just comfortably shoved the little inconvenience to the back of our mind, even as it features as one of the core reasons for death.

Back home in Australia, permanent residency was being offered to many refugees who held temporary protection visas. There was also a resumption of assessments for asylum seeker sponsored visas where they would try to bring family members over.

Speaking of refugees (and jumping ahead a few months), there was a shipwreck off Greece carrying several hundred refugees and migrants. Most were fleeing conflicts in their countries. Of major note was the one in Sudan between the army and a paramilitary force. And when you have many countries refusing to take up migrants or helping out their fellow humans (looking at Tunisia cracking down on illegal immigrants), you end up with many a humanitarian crisis.

Further disasters abounded with a head-on crash in Greece leading to 57 being killed. China later had its own subway crash due to heavy snowfall causing carriages to detach. India, too, also had a train crash killing about 100 people.

Elsewhere, many other social media services began to emulate Elon Musk's subscription services for Twitter X, allowing users to become 'verified.' The Silicon Valley bank collapsed, followed by Credit Suisse leading to a significant downturn on Wall Street as people panicked.

In happy news, Everything Everywhere All At Once won 7 Oscars. A victory, it seemed for so many people living in Asian diasporas across the Western world. Given that many Asians were attacked during the COVID-19 pandemic simply because of their appearance, the win of Everything Everywhere All At Once proved to be a pivotal moment for many.

As the year rolled on, the International Criminal Court issued out a arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin. Trump was indicted for falsifying business records. He was even later arrested. But alas, nothing has seemed to stick and Trump has used many of the court cases brought against him to target those who would stand against him in his bid for the 2024 electoral campaign.

Following the death of Her Royal Majesty, Queen Elizabeth II last year, King Charles III enjoyed a state coronation alongside his wife, Queen Camilla.

Other quick events: Joe Biden was forced to cancel a trip to Australia to deal with the US debt ceiling. There was the discovery of a Kenyan starvation cult. Tina Turner passed away. There was the destruction of a dam in southern Ukraine by Russian forces.

And in the news of cyber security, there was a hack of file-transfer program MoveIt, affecting many companies and governments. This was topped by a hack against Insomniac and the leaking of 1.6 TB of files showing games in development as well as the personal information of many employees.

As the northern hemisphere reached the summer, Canadia endured several severe wildfires that even affected the air quality in America. Silvio Berlusconi passed away and to cap it all off: five people were killed in an imploding submersible headed down towards the Titanic.

In other news, both domestic and international, corruption findings were noted of previous New South Wales premier, Gladys Berejiklian. A teenage boy was shot dead in France leading to protests. Microsoft won a case against the FTC to delay a merge with Activision-Blizzard. SAF-AFRA began to strike alongside the writer's guild regarding working conditions with the move to streaming and the threat of AI supplanting jobs.

With summer peaking and then waning, heatwaves continued to devastate America, Europe and Asia. There was the passing of a controversial bill in Israel limiting the power of the Supreme Court to overturn decisions made by government ministers. In Niger, the military staged a coup.

To put our thoughts at ease, people turned on their televisions and headed to stadiums to watch the FIFA Women's World Cup hosted by Australia and New Zealand. Although Spain won, I'm happy to say Australia's own team came in fourth with a strong showing and with much love showered on our Matildas.

To keep us on our toes, however, we also saw the death of Wagner Group leader in a plane crash: Yevgeny Prigozhin. There was chaos in New York when live-streamer Kai Cenat decided to host a Give Away event. In Africa, there was another coup. This time in Gabon. And in some positive news, India was the first country to land on the Moon's south pole.

As the rest of the world headed towards winter, and Australia to summer, Mother Nature thought another earthquake would shake things up a little - killing thousands in Morocco. There was also an earthquake in Afghanistan, killing quite a number of citizens.

And just to fill out our assassination quota for the year, Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar was killed in Canada.

But in a move to surprise us all, and to raise the stakes in our very fragile ecosystem, Hamas launched an attack on Israel on 7 October, killing a few thousand and taking hundreds hostage. Israel, of course, retaliated - vowing to crush Hamas. This has since led to Israel bombing the Gaza strip, killing many hundreds of people including children and a few of their own people in a desperate bid to stamp out Hamas.

While there was a brief ceasefire and a release of hostages, the situation is still quite dire for many Palestinians. And now Iran has taken a step, declaring they would close off the Mediterranean.

In Australia, we hosted a referendum for the Voice to Parliament. Unfortunately, it was a campaign filled with a lot of disinformation and misinformation. To my dismay, the Voice to Parliament failed, setting Australia back when it comes to acknowledging Indigenous voices.

As for those clamouring for a Treaty first, while I agree with you that a Treaty would be important, a Voice would have greatly paved the way. Even if it might not have been an immediate change or be the change everyone wanted, sometimes the best way to make things better is by taking small steps. True, it might not be what one hopes for but when it comes to swaying the minds of the public on key issues, governing a nation is a delicate balancing act. TAKE WHAT YOU CAN GET BUT DO NOT TRY TO HOLD THE PEOPLE/ BUDGET HOSTAGE. Public opinion IS important but relying solely on populism will get you nowhere and a country in shambles.

Australia also saw several bushfires in Queensland and norther New South Wales. We even had an Optus outage nation-wide, where many people had no internet or phone coverage. It proved, once again, the disadvantages of relying solely on technology and our phones for anything and everything.

And as we neared closer to Christmas and the New Year, Henry Kissinger passed away at the age of 100. In China, there were reports of another mysterious respiratory disease affecting children - with cases of pneumonia beginning to spike again. In north-east Myanmar, a temporary ceasefire was negotiated between the rebels and the military government. New Zealand also saw the rise of a new government (with Labour having been ousted in favour of the National Party). This set in motion a 100-day reform agenda seeking to unwind many of the policies designed to improve outcomes for Maori and Pasifika people, damaging race relations.

In India, after the firing of a smoke grenade in the halls of Parliament, more than half of the Opposition Members of Parliament were suspended in India. Back in America, Joe Biden pardoned thousands convicted of marijuana charges and there was also a mass shooting in Prague!

To round off the year, COP28 was held in Dubai for some inexplicable reason.

And as Santa touched down in Australia, many Australians have been struggling due to the large interest rate hikes and the increased cost of living. Rent, in particular, has proven difficult to overcome for many because of the high demand for housing. Some of it has been exacerbated by inflation but quite a bit of it has also been attributed to the changes in migration policies following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Of course, it's not an Australian Christmas if we don't have a cyclone tearing through northern Queensland in the week or two beforehand, leading to floods and the shutdown of Cairns airport.

So ends another rotation of the Earth around the sun. 2023 has had its highs and its many various lows. Yet although it was the hottest year recorded in living history, we are still here, ticking ever closer to midnight for when we destroy the Earth as we know it.

Actually, no. The Earth will be fine in the long run (unless we somehow destroy the core or the sun explodes). It's us humans who will be wiped out from the planet, resetting civilisation as we know it. And I, for one, am eager for a reset though I doubt we will learn our lesson.

Of course, since I'm writing this post on Christmas Day (and listening to the 2023 Carols in the Domain), I can only hope there will be a light at the end of this very long tunnel we've found ourselves in. They do say it's always darkest before the dawn. Here's hoping there is a dawn for us all where collective governments can work together to make changes so we can continue thriving on this planet we call home.

#personal blog #2023 recap #year in review #humans suck #misanthropic views

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hauntmansion · 6 months

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You are probably all aware that the Pope is Argentinian. But I am sure that you did not know that one of the candidates to this year's Argentine presidential election. Argentina's worse Trump version. Javier Milei. Said the Pope is the devil's messenger.

How are you a presidential candidate and you say the Catholic church's supreme God representative is the opposite of that. How are you saying that when the country you are trying to govern is mostly composed of Christians. He is wrong in many aspects. Much more dangerous than Trump and Bolsonaro. But I had to point out this specifically because it takes a different type of human to be that fundamentally wrong in their strategy.

I am an atheist. I do not care what he says about the Pope. I hate the catholic church. Most of our system does. But this is something that I needed to talk about.

#❄️#! THE SHARPEST LIVES

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newstfionline · 1 year

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Monday, March 27, 2023

Biden declares major disaster in Mississippi (NBC News) The tiny rural town of Rolling Fork, Miss. lies in ruins. Trees toppled, roofs collapsed, power lines and poles listing precariously over roads after a tornado reduced much of it to rubble as it ripped through the Mississippi Delta late Friday, leaving a trail of devastation in one of the poorest regions of the country. At least 25 people were killed in Mississippi and one man died in Alabama. “It sounded like a freight train,” Andrew Dennard told NBC News Saturday. “I don’t think we’re going to rebuild from this,” the 28-year-old added. “It’s worse than death.” Early Sunday, President Joe Biden declared a major disaster in Mississippi and ordered federal aid to supplement recovery efforts.

Trump warns of ‘death & destruction’ if charged with a crime (Reuters) Former U.S. President Donald Trump warned of potential “death & destruction” if he faces criminal charges, hours after New York prosecutors probing his hush-money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels said they would not be intimidated. “What kind of person can charge another person, in this case a former President of the United States, who got more votes than any sitting President in history, and leading candidate (by far!) for the Republican Party nomination, with a Crime, when it is known by all that NO Crime has been committed, & also known that potential death & destruction in such a false charge could be catastrophic for our Country?” wrote Trump, who is seeking the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

And then there were 13: Taiwan’s diplomatic allies (Reuters) Honduras has ended its decades-long relationship with Taiwan and said it only recognised China, leaving Taiwan with formal diplomatic relations with only 13 countries. China views democratically governed Taiwan as part of its territory with no right to state-to-state ties, a position Taiwan’s government strongly disputes. Over the years, China has slowly whittled away at the number of countries that maintain formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan.

Bolsonaro’s return (Washington Post) For weeks, Brazil has enjoyed a relative calm. Following the most divisive election in its history, which culminated in thousands of rioters seizing and vandalizing the capital’s most important federal buildings, the country has celebrated weeks of Carnival revelry and quiet news cycles. New President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has busied himself with budgetary questions, the central bank, and a gaffe here and there. And election loser Jair Bolsonaro has been uncharacteristically quiet from his seclusion thousands of miles away in Kissimmee, Fla. But now Bolsonaro says he’ll return soon to the country he polarized like few politicians before. His reappearance carries grave risks not only for Bolsonaro, who is facing multiple criminal inquiries and the possibility of arrest on a wide range of alleged wrongdoing, but also for Brazil, whose barely salved political wounds Bolsonaro’s politicking could reopen. “Bolsonaro’s return will swell the belligerence and polarization in society that is already polarized,” said political scientist David Magalhães, coordinator of Brazil’s independent Observatory of the Extreme Right. Injecting more uncertainty into the coming months will be the outcomes of the bevy of inquiries that have put increasing pressure on Bolsonaro and his associates.

Hundreds evacuated as major wildfire rages in eastern Spain (AP) Spain's first major wildfire of the year raged in the eastern Valencia region on Friday, destroying more than 7,413 acres of forest and forcing 1,500 residents to abandon their homes, authorities said. An unusually dry winter across parts of the south of the European continent has reduced moisture in the soil and raised fears of a repeat of 2022, when more than 1.9 million acres were destroyed in Europe—more than double the annual average for the past 16 years, according to European Commission (EC) statistics. “These fires we’re seeing, especially this early in the year, are once again proof of the climate emergency that humanity is living through, which particularly affects and ravages countries such as ours,” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez told a news conference in Brussels.

How to flee house arrest in Russia: Escapees tell their secrets (Washington Post) When she finally crossed into the European Union, Olesya Krivtsova, a 20-year-old pacifist branded a terrorist by the Russian authorities for opposing the war in Ukraine, exhaled the fear of two days on the run and “cried a little,” she said. Krivtsova fled her apartment in the northern city of Arkhangelsk earlier this month, disguised as a homeless beggar, swapped cars three times, crossed an official border point and announced her safe arrival in a video in Lithuania several days later. Her escape was one of many by Russian opposition politicians, activists and simply ordinary Russians who opposed Russian President Vladimir Putin and the war, were charged over protests or antiwar comments, and placed under house arrest pending trial. How do they do it? It takes plenty of guts, ingenious disguises, and evasive tactics worthy of a John le Carré novel. For detainees, the main trick is to exploit weaknesses in the system. If there was a how-to-guide it would say: Timing is everything. Leave late Friday or early Saturday, when a police response may be slower. Find ways to delay the police response. Move fast. Take secondary roads. Switch drivers often. Abandon your phone or install a fresh sim card to avoid tracking.

Kyiv frustrated as U.N. report says both sides violated human rights (Washington Post) Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry expressed frustration at U.N. human rights monitors after they reported that both Kyiv and Moscow had committed rights violations against civilians and prisoners of war. The U.N. monitoring mission in Ukraine said it had found proof of summary killings, sexual violence and torture against prisoners of war and civilians, and that Russia had carried out the great majority of violations. “The cruelty and large-scale impact on civilians that we have seen over the last year will continue, unless both parties to the conflict ensure full compliance with international humanitarian law,” Matilda Bogner, the head of the mission, said.

Russia accused of taking Belarus ‘nuclear hostage’ with deal to station missiles there (Guardian) Ukraine has accused Russia of destabilising Belarus and making its smaller neighbour into “a nuclear hostage”, after Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Moscow has made a deal to station tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory. The Russian president’s suggestions that the move would not breach non-proliferation agreements and that it was consistent with similar arrangements that the US has with several of its European allies was given short shrift in Kyiv. Oleksiy Danilov, the head of Ukraine’s national security and defence council, called the deal “a step towards internal destabilisation” of Belarus, and said it maximised what he termed the level of “negative perception and public rejection” of Russia and Putin in Belarusian society.

An Anxious Asia Arms for a War It Hopes to Prevent (NYT) The tiny island of Tinian was the launch point for American planes carrying atomic bombs to Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Now a new runway is being carved from the jungle, just south of World War II ruins inked with mildew. And on a blustery February morning a few hundred yards away at Tinian’s civilian airport, American airmen refueled Japanese fighter jets during a military exercise using more airstrips, islands and Japanese planes than the two enemies-turned-allies have ever mustered for drills in the North Pacific. “We’re not concerned with the past, we are concerned with the future,” said Col. Inadome Satoru, commander of Japan’s 9th Air Wing Flight Group. “We can ensure stability by showing strength.” Asia and the Pacific are steering into an anxious, well-armed moment with echoes of old conflicts and immediate risks. Rattled by China’s military buildup and territorial threats—along with Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine and doubts about U.S. resolve—nations across the region are bolstering defense budgets, joint training, weapons manufacturing and combat-ready infrastructure. It is the most significant arms race in Asia since World War II.

Lebanon in confusion as daylight savings dispute deepens divisions (Reuters) Lebanon woke up in two time zones on Sunday amid an escalating dispute between political and religious authorities over a decision to extend winter time for a month. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati decided on Thursday to roll clocks forward an hour on April 20, instead of entering daylight savings time on the last weekend of March as is usually the case in Lebanon, Europe and other regions. Mikati, a Sunni Muslim, announced the decision after a meeting with Shi’ite parliament speaker Nabih Berri, who repeatedly insisted on the change, according to a video of the meeting published by Lebanese outlet Megaphone. Though no reason was given for the decision, it was seen as an attempt to score a win by Muslims, allowing those fasting during the holy month of Ramadan to break their fasts an hour earlier, at around 6 p.m. instead of 7 p.m. But Lebanon’s influential Maronite church, the largest Christian church in the country, on Saturday announced it would not abide by the decision, saying there had been no consultations or considerations of international standards. It said it would turn clocks forward on Saturday night and other Christian organisations, parties and schools announced similar plans.

Netanyahu Fires Defense Minister Who Urged Delay in Court Overhaul (NYT) Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel fired his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, on Sunday barely a day after Mr. Gallant became the first member of his cabinet to call for a halt to the government’s contentious plan to overhaul the country’s judiciary. Announced in a one-line statement by the prime minister’s office, the move intensified an already dramatic domestic crisis—one of the gravest in Israeli history—that was set off by the government’s proposal to give itself greater control over the selection of Supreme Court justices and to limit the court’s authority over Parliament. The crisis has spurred mass protests, unrest in the military and now, after Mr. Gallant’s criticism and subsequent expulsion from government, rifts in the governing coalition. Mr. Gallant was fired after urging that the legislation be postponed, warning that it had caused turmoil in the military and was therefore a threat to Israel’s security. Mr. Netanyahu’s decision to fire Mr. Gallant appeared an unmistakable signal that the government intends to proceed with a final vote in Parliament early this week on the first part of its proposed overhaul: a law that would give the government greater control over who sits on the Supreme Court.

Planets on parade: 5 will be lined up in night sky this week (AP) Keep an eye to the sky this week for a chance to see a planetary hangout. Five planets—Mercury, Jupiter, Venus, Uranus and Mars—will line up near the moon. The best day to catch the whole group is Tuesday. You’ll want to look to the western horizon right after sunset, said NASA astronomer Bill Cooke. The planets will stretch from the horizon line to around halfway up the night sky. But don’t be late: Mercury and Jupiter will quickly dip below the horizon around half an hour after sunset. The five-planet spread can be seen from anywhere on Earth, as long as you have clear skies and a view of the west.

#headlines #news

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iwatchforher · 4 years

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isn’t it fun when your president wants you all to DIE?? ?? ?

#brazil #brasil #bolsonaro #I know this is very america centered #but bolsonaro is much worse than trump #we're so fucked #we're all gonna die

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awed-frog · 4 years

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Personally I’d like less chatter about what underling might or might not have the virus and someone to ask wtf is Trump doing with the nuclear football in his hospital room when the steroid they’re pumping him with has ‘common’ side effects like depression, euphoria, confusion, amnesia, irritability, mania and psychosis. Not like his decision making skills were great before, but - uh.

#news #dexamethasone #donald trump #the dicktator #in better news #it also causes vomiting #and a lot of other awful things #and now we know the pics were staged #there's some hope he's having an awful time #possibly to get worse #worst days are 8-10 #fingers crossed here #he's much fatter than bolsonaro #and much older than johnson #*lights second candle*

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dhaaruni · 2 years

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sorry to be salty in your inbox, ignore if you want. but europeans going “durr durr YOU elected trump” when i was 14, making it seem like 1 person is the sole cause of all US Bad, made me so mad. like, i get that nordic countries have better standards of living because of universal healthcare and gun control, but let’s not pretend the reason they have less racism isn’t because they wiped all poc out. they use the us as a scapegoat for all societal problems tbh and it gets annoying.

Okay first of all, you were 14 in 2016??? I'm so old and therefore I'm now designating myself your honorary Internet big sister lol.

But yeah, I'm pretty sick and tired of people celebrating Nordic (or Scandinavian because apparently there's a difference between those two terms lol) countries as paragons of virtue in every way when like, their entire country's population is like half of Ohio's so clearly it's a lot more difficult to govern the United States and its 50 states (+ territories) than it is to govern like, Denmark. It's also a matter of size too like the western United States is geographically huge; it takes about 5 hours to drive across Washington state and we aren't even the biggest state out here. Meanwhile, you can be in three different countries in that time in parts of Europe.

Some of what's wrong with America is because of American ethos and individualism or whatever but we need to stop pretending that any other country on earth comes close to being as large and heterogeneous as the US except maybe Brazil, which like, is worse in pretty much every way than the United States so really isn't a comparison. Also like, we voted out our fascist strongman and he's now languishing in Florida getting honorary black belts, Bolsonaro may very well get reelected and even if he doesn't, Brazil doesn't have a Joe Biden in the wings.

Also like, the USA is literally the most racially diverse country on earth!! Asian countries and African countries are much more racially and religiously homogeneous. For instance, Muslims make up almost 20% of the population in India and we never hear about anti-Muslim bigotry in India because the other 80% is all Hindu and silences a lot of the discussions. Meanwhile, the percentage of Black people in the US is less than 15% but racism is still a major topic of discussion here since in addition to Black people, there are Asians and Latinos and Native Americans and Jewish people, and even groups like the Irish and Italians who were previously othered when they first immigrated but are now white.

Americans of all races and origins have long formed coalitions with other groups unlike their own, and they worked together to bring about a better future for everybody, and it literally dismisses all their hard work over the centuries to ceaselessly whinge about how this 330 million strong country is unable to instantaneously do what some country a quarter of the size of Florida was able to do. Just for one example, the Black-Jewish alliance in the American South was key in bringing about Civil Rights in the 1960s and even in 2021, the modern version of the Black-Jewish alliance elected senators Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock in Georgia, a literal bastion of the Confederacy. And that should be celebrated!!

The point is, America very much is a melting pot, and that makes it difficult to bring about national structural change but that doesn't mean it's not worth fighting for.

#answered #anonymous #politics #land of the free home of the brave

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seb-uh · 3 years

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Hello! Can you please explain what's going on in Brazil, cause I really don't know and I want to be informed about this (just if you want to, no pressure or anything)

Hi anon! It's no problem at all to explain, don't worry about it!

I have a feeling this is gonna be long, so I'm gonna put it under a 'read more', alright?!

So, our president (and I use the term 'our' very loosely here, because I honestly cannot consider that very poor excuse of a human being as my president at any point in time) is someone who really is not worth of the position he occupies. Jair Bolsonaro was part our army when we were under army dictatorship (between 1964-1989). He was been involved in politics for 27 years before he was elected president of Brazil, and did not do a single good thing for the country during that time, believe me.

In 2016, our president at the time, Dilma Roussef, was impeached under very loose accusations and, in 2018, Bolsonaro was elected president because the other politicians did a very good job at convincing the people Dilma and Lula's party was involved in corruption (whether or not they were is a different history altogether). So, Bolsonaro was elected and that is when our country started going down the hill (not that we were ever at the top of it, but we were getting there).

Bolsonaro is very much like Trump, but a bit worse, if a may say so myself. He has absolutely no regards to starving people, to the lack of safety, to protecting our forests and enviroment. He literally only cares about rich people and their agendas. All of his sons are involved in politics as well and they are all rich as hell (I'm pretty sure you can imagine how, yeah? Politicians just don't earn enough money to become millionaires like that legally).

Bolsonaro has been treating the pandemic as a joke since the beginning, doing absolutely nothing to help and laughing (yes, LAUGHING) at the almost 600k lives we lost until this day (believe me, as a med student, it fucking kills me to talk about this, because I know for a fact at least half of these deaths could have been avoided if we have had a decent person leading us during these hard times). He has also taken advantage of the pandemic to pass laws that allows the agrobusiness to explore our natural resources as it sees fit and without consequences, like the Amazon deforestation, fe. I will not go on about how he promoted medical treatments which do not work at all, how he is letting vaccines go bad even today, how Pfizer tried for months to get in contact with the government and he simply ignored them, only to buy vaccines at triple the original price (and of course there are some of his 'minions' who won a lot of money with that). He is making absolutely everything in his power to make everyone's lives even more difficult and you can imagine how much the country is suffering economically because of him.

In short, over the last couple of years, Bolsonaro has made it possible for rich people to buy guns and land to make themselves even richer, but also made it impossible for poor people to buy food to survive. Everything here in Brazil now cost at least 200% more than it did two years ago, there are millions of people starving, homeless and unemployed, and basically going without any help from the government. The public programs we have today are from the time Lula and Dilma were presidents, but they are not enough to make much of a difference by themselves.

What you have to understand, anon, is that politics which center on poor people being able to go far in life don't go well with rich people. This kind of politics may not change the world, but they make people who were not born in golden cribs able to grow, have a good life and afford things rich people consider themselves entitled to. This is true for basically every country in the world, unfortunately, but here in Brazil it is especially true. Bolsonaro is mainly supported by the rich (like the Piquets and other people who benefit monetarily from his politics because they don't care about anyone else) and prejudiced people. His followers share so many fake news on social media that he passed a law yesterday to make it extremely difficult for platforms like Facebook and Instagram to track them and shut them down (fake news played a huge part on his election as well).

Today we celebrate Independence Day here in Brazil, but to be honest with you, we have absolutely nothing to celebrate. Our people are the best and we have so many beautiful things to show the world, but it makes me absolutely devastated to see such a beautiful country being wasted away like this.

There was a pro-coup protest in Brasilia today (that's our capital, btw, it's not Rio or São Paulo). Bolsonaro is losing some of his followers and it feels like he is trying to implant a new military dictatorship in Brazil (he tried it when the first one was ending, but thankfully it did not work out). Something tells me he will not accept defeat in next year's election and this is very dangerous. He wants to be a dictator, he wants to have the last word in everything and go after everyone who does not agree with him. He is also very childish and very rude to everybody.

This is the guy Nelson Piquet was driving around today. This is the guy Lucas DiGrassi, Felipe Massa, Sérgio Sette Câmara and even fucking Neymar supported and campaigned for two years ago. So, yeah, this is the reason I don't want any of them to win anything ever again. Absolutely no one who continues to support a genocide today deserve to win anything in life.

Sorry about the long post, but apparently I needed to get it out of my chest. Also, sorry if I made any grammar mistakes or if something was not clear enough, I double checked it but something may have slipped me. I am much more articulated than this in portuguese, but I hope you understand the picture now, anon. If you have any more questions, please feel free to reach out, I will try my best to answer them!

#anon #brazilian politics #i love this country but i also absolutely hate it here

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stargirlfics · 3 years

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"We are all in the same fucking boat" Guess what.... NO! Even you being afro-latina, you have more privileges than someone that lives in the THIRD WORLD. You all saying that we have to have mercy for you, when you are the ones that live in the first world, and have no idea what is like to live down here. You are calling me ignorant, but I really want to know how many of you can point bolivia in the map (or any other country thats not mexico or brasil) and also how much do you know about the things that happend or are hapening now. Do you know whats going on in chile? What happend with elections in bolivia? What is going on in argentina in the last 15 years? Did you have 5 presidents in one week? Whats going on with bolsonaro🤢? Lets not foget venezuela, cuba, puerto rico, mexico, colombia..... Also, how many dictatorships did you have? We are not in the same boat.

And I know about white supremacists and all the racism you have and I still cant belive that being in 2020 you have the same problems than 60 years ago, and I know that the arrival of trump intensified all this, and I think trump is 💩💩💩

This is not a contest to see who is more miserable, but is to point out that all of you living in a first world country, even with all the bad things you said, you're still more privileged than someone that lives in a third world country.

None of us have any idea what it’s like to live in each other’s respective countries and America is touted as a first world country and it is for many living here and for many like myself it’s a first world country yes and I am privileged to live here and not in a third world country but that first world country greatness comes with a terms and conditions that I do not fit and many here do not fit

We can argue all day long about third world country issues and US issues and what it’s like and what information is not being presented or cared about, and especially in the US the culture here is very self oriented, the culture here and the news here is not keen on speaking about issues in other countries but it doesn’t change the fact that you need to look at where and who your issues are with

It just feels gross to be amused that we’re stressed about this election bc YOU SHOULD BE TOO, all the issues your own country is facing are directly and indirectly influenced and linked to Trump and to the governments decisions at large, i wouldn’t ever tell yoU that I’m amused you’re concerned about dictators in your country

Again marginalized US citizens and our privileges are not your enemy, we can acknowledge who’s got the better end of the stick but we also need to acknowledge the systems at play that disenfranchise us all, again if you are not free then neither am I what’s not clicking

Your issues may be different or worse in areas, America’s issues may be less or worse in areas but we are concerned and trying to stop a man from becoming a dictator in the way your country has had dictators or I guess that’s somehow amusing to see the rise of another fascist bc oh these people have no idea what it’s like the way I do, of course I don’t but that doesn’t make the situation any less concerning

So yes we are in the same boat against oppressive systems even if the issues itself look different, your anger is valid but you gotta direct that to the root cause, you might hate America but I’ll take that title as hating it the most baby

#im just getting pissed off like this is not hard to understand and acknowledge #asks #us politics #world politics

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galvanizedfriend · 3 years

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Are you an American / living in the US? How relevant is the Election Day madness for you?

I am not, anon, but it is very relevant to me. I’m from Latin America, so.

My country is currently at the hands of a little Hitler who’s no better than Trump. In fact, in many instances, he’s worse. He stands for absolutely the same things as Trump, with the added “bonus” of being a religious maniac who also has deep connections with organized crime. If you guys knew the details of Brazilian politics, it would rock your socks... House of Cards has got nothing on us.

The past two years, since Bolsonaro was elected, have been nightmarish in every possible way. And it is no surprise that he’s a SUPER Trump supporter. It’s kind of pathetic, really, and something that influences the country in many ways. Especially because Trump is his ONLY international ally. Literally. He’s made Brazil a pariah and all based on the fact that the US would allegedly have his back (spoiler: they don’t, Trump’s fucked him over every chance he had).

I have no real expectations about a Biden win. The Obama administration (and Biden in particular) played a huge part in the coup that removed Dilma Roussef from government. Things have gone downhill for us in every aspect from there on. But I really, really, REALLY hope Biden gets elected tonight. Not because I think he'll be a balm to this world in any practical terms, but because it sends a strong message, just like Trump being elected in 2016 sent one as well. Donald Trump became the face of the far-right movement worldwide and the fact the USA backed that was a huge statement. He stands for values and ideals that I abhor, and his election played a huge part in strengthening that movement all over the world, including in my country. In fact, Steve Bannon was a consultant on Bolsonaro’s campaign and the widespread of fake news used to empower him and radicalize the population came very much from the Trump campaign’s text books. Bolsonaro and his dumbass followers WORSHIP the ground Trump walks on.

I’m afraid that the very posture Trump’s had throughout this whole electoral process will come into play on our next presidential elections. I just heard Van Jones on CNN say that he is running AGAINST the elections, and that’s very true. I’m afraid he’s starting a movement that Bolsonaro is very likely to repeat here, but more so if Trump wins, because then he’ll have his pal to back him up.

Like it or not, the US is a leading force in the world and what you folks do over there politically reverberates across the entire globe. Just like the BLM movement did, so will the result of this election. It will either strengthen the likes of Bolsonaro, or it will be a huge dent in his support. At the very least, he will be forced to change his stances on many things, especially the environment, if he is to have a good relationship with Biden.

To all my mutuals and followers in the US and in places that are likely to be affected by the elections, I wish you guys all the best. Stay safe, stay healthy, respect social distancing but be in touch with your friends and families. Get yourselves some chocolate or whatever comfort food you prefer, some Coke Zero (my fave!) and try to relax if you can. I know how much this means to you, how much is at stake. I was there two years ago and it was awful and there hasn’t been a single day gone by that I haven’t had reason to explode in anger at my government since (it’s no exaggeration, it’s literally a daily exercise in trying to stay sane). I wish you folks all the best and hope the night ends on a good note for you and that you may take a breath in relief once this is all over.

And to anyone out there who might be a Trump supporter: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

PS: The US electoral system is completely insane. What the hell, my dudes???

PPS: Joe Biden is from SCRANTON???

#yokan answers #anon #be well tonight folks!

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allthebrazilianpolitics · 3 years

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'We are being ignored’: Brazil’s researchers blame anti-science government for devastating COVID surge

Researchers say that President Jair Bolsonaro’s administration has undermined science during an epic public-health crisis.

More than a year after Brazil detected its first case of COVID-19, the country is facing its darkest phase of the pandemic yet. Researchers are devastated by the recent surge in cases and say that the government’s failure to follow science-based guidance in responding to the pandemic has made the crisis much worse.

They add that President Jair Bolsonaro’s administration has publicly undermined science while refusing to implement protective national lockdowns and spreading misinformation.

“Being a scientist in Brazil is so sad and frustrating,” says Jesem Orellana, an epidemiologist at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation's centre in Manaus. “Half of our deaths were preventable. It’s a total disaster.”

A surge in coronavirus infections has brought many of Brazil’s intensive-care units to the brink of collapse. And daily and monthly death tolls have reached record highs. Since the pandemic began, more than 389,000 people in Brazil have died from the illness, representing 13% of the world’s COVID-19 mortalities — even though the country has less than 3% of the global population.

Bolsonaro, a polarizing figure who has been likened to former US president Donald Trump, has been contradicting scientific opinion since the beginning of the pandemic, when he called COVID-19 a “little flu”. Late last year, he also implied that COVID-19 vaccines could be dangerous, saying: “If you turn into a crocodile, it’s your problem.”

Brazilian researchers were well aware of Bolsonaro’s anti-science stance heading into the pandemic. After taking office in 2019, he slashed funding for Brazil’s universities and for its science and education ministries. He also accused Brazil’s National Space Research Institute of falsifying satellite data that showed accelerated deforestation in the Amazon. Still, his handling of the COVID-19 crisis came as a shock, says Natalia Pasternak, a microbiologist and president of the Question of Science Institute in São Paulo. “I don’t think that any of us could foresee that it would be this bad.”

#brazil #politics #coronavirus #covid 19 #science #brazilian politics #mod nise da silveira

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reading-writing-revolution · 4 years

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"However bad things are for most other rich democracies, it is hard not to feel sorry for Americans. Most of them did not vote for Donald Trump in 2016. Yet they are locked down with a malignant narcissist who, instead of protecting his people from Covid-19, has amplified its lethality. The country Trump promised to make great again has never in its history seemed so pitiful."

(Thank you to David Lerigny for forwarding this article)

Here is a brilliant Op-Ed From Irish Times writer, Fintan O’Toole.

April 25, 2020

THE WORLD HAS LOVED, HATED AND ENVIED THE U.S. NOW, FOR THE FIRST TIME, WE PITY IT

Over more than two centuries, the United States has stirred a very wide range of feelings in the rest of the world: love and hatred, fear and hope, envy and contempt, awe and anger. But there is one emotion that has never been directed towards the US until now: pity.

However bad things are for most other rich democracies, it is hard not to feel sorry for Americans. Most of them did not vote for Donald Trump in 2016. Yet they are locked down with a malignant narcissist who, instead of protecting his people from Covid-19, has amplified its lethality. The country Trump promised to make great again has never in its history seemed so pitiful.

Will American prestige ever recover from this shameful episode? The US went into the coronavirus crisis with immense advantages: precious weeks of warning about what was coming, the world’s best concentration of medical and scientific expertise, effectively limitless financial resources, a military complex with stunning logistical capacity and most of the world’s leading technology corporations. Yet it managed to make itself the global epicentre of the pandemic.

As the American writer George Packer puts it in the current edition of the Atlantic, “The United States reacted ... like Pakistan or Belarus – like a country with shoddy infrastructure and a dysfunctional government whose leaders were too corrupt or stupid to head off mass suffering.”

It is one thing to be powerless in the face of a natural disaster, quite another to watch vast power being squandered in real time – wilfully, malevolently, vindictively. It is one thing for governments to fail (as, in one degree or another, most governments did), quite another to watch a ruler and his supporters actively spread a deadly virus. Trump, his party and Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News became vectors of the pestilence.

The grotesque spectacle of the president openly inciting people (some of them armed) to take to the streets to oppose the restrictions that save lives is the manifestation of a political death wish. What are supposed to be daily briefings on the crisis, demonstrative of national unity in the face of a shared challenge, have been used by Trump merely to sow confusion and division. They provide a recurring horror show in which all the neuroses that haunt the American subconscious dance naked on live TV.

If the plague is a test, its ruling political nexus ensured that the US would fail it at a terrible cost in human lives. In the process, the idea of the US as the world’s leading nation – an idea that has shaped the past century – has all but evaporated.

Other than the Trump impersonator Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, who is now looking to the US as the exemplar of anything other than what not to do? How many people in Düsseldorf or Dublin are wishing they lived in Detroit or Dallas?

It is hard to remember now but, even in 2017, when Trump took office, the conventional wisdom in the US was that the Republican Party and the broader framework of US political institutions would prevent him from doing too much damage. This was always a delusion, but the pandemic has exposed it in the most savage ways.

Abject surrender

What used to be called mainstream conservatism has not absorbed Trump – he has absorbed it. Almost the entire right-wing half of American politics has surrendered abjectly to him. It has sacrificed on the altar of wanton stupidity the most basic ideas of responsibility, care and even safety.

Thus, even at the very end of March, 15 Republican governors had failed to order people to stay at home or to close non-essential businesses. In Alabama, for example, it was not until April 3rd that governor Kay Ivey finally issued a stay-at-home order.

In Florida, the state with the highest concentration of elderly people with underlying conditions, governor Ron DeSantis, a Trump mini-me, kept the beach resorts open to students travelling from all over the US for spring break parties. Even on April 1st, when he issued restrictions, DeSantis exempted religious services and “recreational activities”.

Georgia governor Brian Kemp, when he finally issued a stay-at-home order on April 1st, explained: “We didn’t know that [the virus can be spread by people without symptoms] until the last 24 hours.”

This is not mere ignorance – it is deliberate and homicidal stupidity. There is, as the demonstrations this week in US cities have shown, plenty of political mileage in denying the reality of the pandemic. It is fuelled by Fox News and far-right internet sites, and it reaps for these politicians millions of dollars in donations, mostly (in an ugly irony) from older people who are most vulnerable to the coronavirus.

It draws on a concoction of conspiracy theories, hatred of science, paranoia about the “deep state” and religious providentialism (God will protect the good folks) that is now very deeply infused in the mindset of the American right.

Trump embodies and enacts this mindset, but he did not invent it. The US response to the coronavirus crisis has been paralysed by a contradiction that the Republicans have inserted into the heart of US democracy. On the one hand, they want to control all the levers of governmental power. On the other they have created a popular base by playing on the notion that government is innately evil and must not be trusted.

The contradiction was made manifest in two of Trump’s statements on the pandemic: on the one hand that he has “total authority”, and on the other that “I don’t take responsibility at all”. Caught between authoritarian and anarchic impulses, he is incapable of coherence.

Fertile ground

But this is not just Donald Trump. The crisis has shown definitively that Trump’s presidency is not an aberration. It has grown on soil long prepared to receive it. The monstrous blossoming of misrule has structure and purpose and strategy behind it.

There are very powerful interests who demand “freedom” in order to do as they like with the environment, society and the economy. They have infused a very large part of American culture with the belief that “freedom” is literally more important than life. My freedom to own assault weapons trumps your right not to get shot at school. Now, my freedom to go to the barber (“I Need a Haircut” read one banner this week in St Paul, Minnesota) trumps your need to avoid infection.

Usually when this kind of outlandish idiocy is displaying itself, there is the comforting thought that, if things were really serious, it would all stop. People would sober up. Instead, a large part of the US has hit the bottle even harder.

And the president, his party and their media allies keep supplying the drinks. There has been no moment of truth, no shock of realisation that the antics have to end. No one of any substance on the US right has stepped in to say: get a grip, people are dying here.

That is the mark of how deep the trouble is for the US – it is not just that Trump has treated the crisis merely as a way to feed tribal hatreds but that this behaviour has become normalised. When the freak show is live on TV every evening, and the star is boasting about his ratings, it is not really a freak show any more. For a very large and solid bloc of Americans, it is reality.

And this will get worse before it gets better. Trump has at least eight more months in power. In his inaugural address in 2017, he evoked “American carnage” and promised to make it stop. But now that the real carnage has arrived, he is revelling in it. He is in his element.

As things get worse, he will pump more hatred and falsehood, more death-wish defiance of reason and decency, into the groundwater. If a new administration succeeds him in 2021, it will have to clean up the toxic dump he leaves behind. If he is re-elected, toxicity will have become the lifeblood of American politics.

Either way, it will be a long time before the rest of the world can imagine America being great again.

You can follow Fintan O’Toole @fotoole on twitter.

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scifigeneration · 4 years

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What will the world be like after coronavirus? Four possible futures

by Simon Mair

Where will we be in six months, a year, ten years from now? I lie awake at night wondering what the future holds for my loved ones. My vulnerable friends and relatives. I wonder what will happen to my job, even though I’m luckier than many: I get good sick pay and can work remotely. I am writing this from the UK, where I still have self-employed friends who are staring down the barrel of months without pay, friends who have already lost jobs. The contract that pays 80% of my salary runs out in December. Coronavirus is hitting the economy badly. Will anyone be hiring when I need work?

There are a number of possible futures, all dependent on how governments and society respond to coronavirus and its economic aftermath. Hopefully we will use this crisis to rebuild, produce something better and more humane. But we may slide into something worse.

I think we can understand our situation – and what might lie in our future – by looking at the political economy of other crises. My research focuses on the fundamentals of the modern economy: global supply chains, wages, and productivity. I look at the way that economic dynamics contribute to challenges like climate change and low levels of mental and physical health among workers. I have argued that we need a very different kind of economics if we are to build socially just and ecologically sound futures. In the face of COVID-19, this has never been more obvious.

The responses to the COVID-19 pandemic are simply the amplification of the dynamic that drives other social and ecological crises: the prioritisation of one type of value over others. This dynamic has played a large part in driving global responses to COVID-19. So as responses to the virus evolve, how might our economic futures develop?

From an economic perspective, there are four possible futures: a descent into barbarism, a robust state capitalism, a radical state socialism, and a transformation into a big society built on mutual aid. Versions of all of these futures are perfectly possible, if not equally desirable.

What might our future hold? Jose Antonio Gallego Vázquez/Unsplash, FAL

Small changes don’t cut it

Coronavirus, like climate change, is partly a problem of our economic structure. Although both appear to be “environmental” or “natural” problems, they are socially driven.

Yes, climate change is caused by certain gases absorbing heat. But that’s a very shallow explanation. To really understand climate change, we need to understand the social reasons that keep us emitting greenhouse gases. Likewise with COVID-19. Yes, the direct cause is the virus. But managing its effects requires us to understand human behaviour and its wider economic context.

Tackling both COVID-19 and climate change is much easier if you reduce nonessential economic activity. For climate change this is because if you produce less stuff, you use less energy, and emit fewer greenhouse gases. The epidemiology of COVID-19 is rapidly evolving. But the core logic is similarly simple. People mix together and spread infections. This happens in households, and in workplaces, and on the journeys people make. Reducing this mixing is likely to reduce person-to-person transmission and lead to fewer cases overall.

This article is part of Conversation Insights The Insights team generates long-form journalism derived from interdisciplinary research. The team is working with academics from different backgrounds who have been engaged in projects aimed at tackling societal and scientific challenges.

Reducing contact between people probably also helps with other control strategies. One common control strategy for infectious disease outbreaks is contact tracing and isolation, where an infected person’s contacts are identified, then isolated to prevent further disease spread. This is most effective when you trace a high percentage of contacts. The fewer contacts a person has, the fewer you have to trace to get to that higher percentage.

We can see from Wuhan that social distancing and lockdown measures like this are effective. Political economy is useful in helping us understand why they weren’t introduced earlier in European countries and the US.

A fragile economy

Lockdown is placing pressure on the global economy. We face a serious recession. This pressure has led some world leaders to call for an easing of lockdown measures.

Even as 19 countries sat in a state of lockdown, the US president, Donald Trump, and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro called for roll backs in mitigation measures. Trump called for the American economy to get back to normal in three weeks (he has now accepted that social distancing will need to be maintained for much longer). Bolsonaro said: “Our lives have to go on. Jobs must be kept … We must, yes, get back to normal.”

In the UK meanwhile, four days before calling for a three-week lockdown, Prime Minister Boris Johnson was only marginally less optimistic, saying that the UK could turn the tide within 12 weeks. Yet even if Johnson is correct, it remains the case that we are living with an economic system that will threaten collapse at the next sign of pandemic.

The economics of collapse are fairly straightforward. Businesses exist to make a profit. If they can’t produce, they can’t sell things. This means they won’t make profits, which means they are less able to employ you. Businesses can and do (over short time periods) hold on to workers that they don’t need immediately: they want to be able to meet demand when the economy picks back up again. But, if things start to look really bad, then they won’t. So, more people lose their jobs or fear losing their jobs. So they buy less. And the whole cycle starts again, and we spiral into an economic depression.

In a normal crisis the prescription for solving this is simple. The government spends, and it spends until people start consuming and working again. (This prescription is what the economist John Maynard Keynes is famous for).

But normal interventions won’t work here because we don’t want the economy to recover (at least, not immediately). The whole point of the lockdown is to stop people going to work, where they spread the disease. One recent study suggested that lifting lockdown measures in Wuhan (including workplace closures) too soon could see China experience a second peak of cases later in 2020.

As the economist James Meadway wrote, the correct COVID-19 response isn’t a wartime economy – with massive upscaling of production. Rather, we need an “anti-wartime” economy and a massive scaling back of production. And if we want to be more resilient to pandemics in the future (and to avoid the worst of climate change) we need a system capable of scaling back production in a way that doesn’t mean loss of livelihood.

So what we need is a different economic mindset. We tend to think of the economy as the way we buy and sell things, mainly consumer goods. But this is not what an economy is or needs to be. At its core, the economy is the way we take our resources and turn them into the things we need to live. Looked at this way, we can start to see more opportunities for living differently that allow us to produce less stuff without increasing misery.

I and other ecological economists have long been concerned with the question of how you produce less in a socially just way, because the challenge of producing less is also central to tackling climate change. All else equal, the more we produce the more greenhouse gases we emit. So how do you reduce the amount of stuff you make while keeping people in work?

Proposals include reducing the length of the working week, or, as some of my recent work has looked at, you could allow people to work more slowly and with less pressure. Neither of these is directly applicable to COVID-19, where the aim is reducing contact rather than output, but the core of the proposals is the same. You have to reduce people’s dependence on a wage to be able to live.

What is the economy for?

The key to understanding responses to COVID-19 is the question of what the economy is for. Currently, the primary aim of the global economy is to facilitate exchanges of money. This is what economists call “exchange value”.

The dominant idea of the current system we live in is that exchange value is the same thing as use value. Basically, people will spend money on the things that they want or need, and this act of spending money tells us something about how much they value its “use”. This is why markets are seen as the best way to run society. They allow you to adapt, and are flexible enough to match up productive capacity with use value.

What COVID-19 is throwing into sharp relief is just how false our beliefs about markets are. Around the world, governments fear that critical systems will be disrupted or overloaded: supply chains, social care, but principally healthcare. There are lots of contributing factors to this. But let’s take two.

First, it is quite hard to make money from many of the most essential societal services. This is in part because a major driver of profits is labour productivity growth: doing more with fewer people. People are a big cost factor in many businesses, especially those that rely on personal interactions, like healthcare. Consequently, productivity growth in the healthcare sector tends to be lower than the rest of the economy, so its costs go up faster than average.

Second, jobs in many critical services aren’t those that tend to be highest valued in society. Many of the best paid jobs only exist to facilitate exchanges; to make money. They serve no wider purpose to society: they are what the anthropologist David Graeber calls “bullshit jobs”. Yet because they make lots of money we have lots of consultants, a huge advertising industry and a massive financial sector. Meanwhile, we have a crisis in health and social care, where people are often forced out of useful jobs they enjoy, because these jobs don’t pay them enough to live.

Bullshit jobs are innumerable. Jesus Sanz/Shutterstock.com

Pointless jobs

The fact that so many people work pointless jobs is partly why we are so ill prepared to respond to COVID-19. The pandemic is highlighting that many jobs are not essential, yet we lack sufficient key workers to respond when things go bad.

People are compelled to work pointless jobs because in a society where exchange value is the guiding principle of the economy, the basic goods of life are mainly available through markets. This means you have to buy them, and to buy them you need an income, which comes from a job.

The other side of this coin is that the most radical (and effective) responses that we are seeing to the COVID-19 outbreak challenge the dominance of markets and exchange value. Around the world governments are taking actions that three months ago looked impossible. In Spain, private hospitals have been nationalised. In the UK, the prospect of nationalising various modes of transport has become very real. And France has stated its readiness to nationalise large businesses.

Likewise, we are seeing the breakdown of labour markets. Countries like Denmark and the UK are providing people with an income in order to stop them from going to work. This is an essential part of a successful lockdown. These measures are far from perfect. Nonetheless, it is a shift from the principle that people have to work in order to earn their income, and a move towards the idea that people deserve to be able to live even if they cannot work.

This reverses the dominant trends of the last 40 years. Over this time, markets and exchange values have been seen as the best way of running an economy. Consequently, public systems have come under increasing pressures to marketise, to be run as though they were businesses who have to make money. Likewise, workers have become more and more exposed to the market – zero-hours contracts and the gig economy have removed the layer of protection from market fluctuations that long term, stable, employment used to offer.

COVID-19 appears to be reversing this trend, taking healthcare and labour goods out of the market and putting it into the hands of the state. States produce for many reasons. Some good and some bad. But unlike markets, they do not have to produce for exchange value alone.

These changes give me hope. They give us the chance to save many lives. They even hint at the possibility of longer term change that makes us happier and helps us tackle climate change. But why did it take us so long to get here? Why were many countries so ill-prepared to slowdown production? The answer lies in a recent World Health Organisation report: they did not have the right “mindset”.

Our economic imaginations

There has been a broad economic consensus for 40 years. This has limited the ability of politicians and their advisers to see cracks in the system, or imagine alternatives. This mindset is driven by two linked beliefs:

The market is what delivers a good quality of life, so it must be protected

The market will always return to normal after short periods of crisis

These views are common to many Western countries. But they are strongest in the UK and the US, both of which have appeared to be badly prepared to respond to COVID-19.

In the UK, attendees at a private engagement reportedly summarised the Prime Minister’s most senior aide’s approach to COVID-19 as “herd immunity, protect the economy, and if that means some pensioners die, too bad”. The government has denied this, but if real, it’s not surprising. At a government event early in the pandemic, a senior civil servant said to me: “Is it worth the economic disruption? If you look at the treasury valuation of a life, probably not.”

This kind of view is endemic in a particular elite class. It is well represented by a Texas official who argued that many elderly people would gladly die rather than see the US sink into economic depression. This view endangers many vulnerable people (and not all vulnerable people are elderly), and, as I have tried to lay out here, it is a false choice.

One of the things the COVID-19 crisis could be doing, is expanding that economic imagination. As governments and citizens take steps that three months ago seemed impossible, our ideas about how the world works could change rapidly. Let us look at where this re-imagining could take us.

Four futures

To help us visit the future, I’m going to use a technique from the field of futures studies. You take two factors you think will be important in driving the future, and you imagine what will happen under different combinations of those factors.

The factors I want to take are value and centralisation. Value refers to whatever is the guiding principle of our economy. Do we use our resources to maximise exchanges and money, or do we use them to maximise life? Centralisation refers to the ways that things are organised, either by of lots of small units or by one big commanding force. We can organise these factors into a grid, which can then be populated with scenarios. So we can think about what might happen if we try to respond to the coronavirus with the four extreme combinations:

1) State capitalism: centralised response, prioritising exchange value 2) Barbarism: decentralised response prioritising exchange value 3) State socialism: centralised response, prioritising the protection of life 4) Mutual aid: decentralised response prioritising the protection of life.

State capitalism

State capitalism is the dominant response we are seeing across the world right now. Typical examples are the UK, Spain and Denmark.

The state capitalist society continues to pursue exchange value as the guiding light of the economy. But it recognises that markets in crisis require support from the state. Given that many workers cannot work because they are ill, and fear for their lives, the state steps in with extended welfare. It also enacts massive Keynesian stimulus by extending credit and making direct payments to businesses.

The expectation here is that this will be for a short period. The primary function of the steps being taken is to allow as many businesses as possible to keep on trading. In the UK, for example, food is still distributed by markets (though the government has relaxed competition laws). Where workers are supported directly, this is done in ways that seek to minimise disruption of normal labour market functioning. So, for example, as in the UK, payments to workers have to be applied for and distributed by employers. And the size of payments is made on the basis of the exchange value a worker usually creates in the market, rather than the usefulness of their work.

Could this be a successful scenario? Possibly, but only if COVID-19 proves controllable over a short period. As full lockdown is avoided to maintain market functioning, transmission of infection is still likely to continue. In the UK, for instance, non-essential construction is still continuing, leaving workers mixing on building sites. But limited state intervention will become increasingly hard to maintain if death tolls rise. Increased illness and death will provoke unrest and deepen economic impacts, forcing the state to take more and more radical actions to try to maintain market functioning.

Barbarism

This is the bleakest scenario. Barbarism is the future if we continue to rely on exchange value as our guiding principle and yet refuse to extend support to those who get locked out of markets by illness or unemployment. It describes a situation that we have not yet seen.

Businesses fail and workers starve because there are no mechanisms in place to protect them from the harsh realities of the market. Hospitals are not supported by extraordinary measures, and so become overwhelmed. People die. Barbarism is ultimately an unstable state that ends in ruin or a transition to one of the other grid sections after a period of political and social devastation.

Could this happen? The concern is that either it could happen by mistake during the pandemic, or by intention after the pandemic peaks. The mistake is if a government fails to step in in a big enough way during the worst of the pandemic. Support might be offered to businesses and households, but if this isn’t enough to prevent market collapse in the face of widespread illness, chaos would ensue. Hospitals might be sent extra funds and people, but if it’s not enough, ill people will be turned away in large numbers.

Potentially just as consequential is the possibility of massive austerity after the pandemic has peaked and governments seek to return to “normal”. This has been threatened in Germany. This would be disastrous. Not least because defunding of critical services during austerity has impacted the ability of countries to respond to this pandemic.

The subsequent failure of the economy and society would trigger political and social unrest, leading to a failed state and the collapse of both state and community welfare systems.

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State socialism

State socialism describes the first of the futures we could see with a cultural shift that places a different kind of value at the heart of the economy. This is the future we arrive at with an extension of the measures we are currently seeing in the UK, Spain and Denmark.

The key here is that measures like nationalisation of hospitals and payments to workers are seen not as tools to protect markets, but a way to protect life itself. In such a scenario, the state steps in to protect the parts of the economy that are essential to life: the production of food, energy and shelter for instance, so that the basic provisions of life are no longer at the whim of the market. The state nationalises hospitals, and makes housing freely available. Finally, it provides all citizens with a means of accessing various goods – both basics and any consumer goods we are able to produce with a reduced workforce.

Citizens no longer rely on employers as intermediaries between them and the basic materials of life. Payments are made to everyone directly and are not related to the exchange value they create. Instead, payments are the same to all (on the basis that we deserve to be able to live, simply because we are alive), or they are based on the usefulness of the work. Supermarket workers, delivery drivers, warehouse stackers, nurses, teachers, and doctors are the new CEOs.

It’s possible that state socialism emerges as a consequence of attempts at state capitalism and the effects of a prolonged pandemic. If deep recessions happen and there is disruption in supply chains such that demand cannot be rescued by the kind of standard Keynesian policies we are seeing now (printing money, making loans easier to get and so on), the state may take over production.

There are risks to this approach – we must be careful to avoid authoritarianism. But done well, this may be our best hope against an extreme COVID-19 outbreak. A strong state able to marshal the resources to protect the core functions of economy and society.

Mutual aid

Mutual aid is the second future in which we adopt the protection of life as the guiding principle of our economy. But, in this scenario, the state does not take a defining role. Rather, individuals and small groups begin to organise support and care within their communities.

The risks with this future is that small groups are unable to rapidly mobilise the kind of resources needed to effectively increase healthcare capacity, for instance. But mutual aid could enable more effective transmission prevention, by building community support networks that protect the vulnerable and police isolation rules. The most ambitious form of this future sees new democratic structures arise. Groupings of communities that are able to mobilise substantial resources with relative speed. People coming together to plan regional responses to stop disease spread and (if they have the skills) to treat patients.

This kind of scenario could emerge from any of the others. It is a possible way out of barbarism, or state capitalism, and could support state socialism. We know that community responses were central to tackling the West African Ebola outbreak. And we already see the roots of this future today in the groups organising care packages and community support. We can see this as a failure of state responses. Or we can see it as a pragmatic, compassionate societal response to an unfolding crisis.

Hope and fear

These visions are extreme scenarios, caricatures, and likely to bleed into one another. My fear is the descent from state capitalism into barbarism. My hope is a blend of state socialism and mutual aid: a strong, democratic state that mobilises resources to build a stronger health system, prioritises protecting the vulnerable from the whims of the market and responds to and enables citizens to form mutual aid groups rather than working meaningless jobs.

What hopefully is clear is that all these scenarios leave some grounds for fear, but also some for hope. COVID-19 is highlighting serious deficiencies in our existing system. An effective response to this is likely to require radical social change. I have argued it requires a drastic move away from markets and the use of profits as the primary way of organising an economy. The upside of this is the possibility that we build a more humane system that leaves us more resilient in the face of future pandemics and other impending crises like climate change.

Social change can come from many places and with many influences. A key task for us all is demanding that emerging social forms come from an ethic that values care, life, and democracy. The central political task in this time of crisis is living and (virtually) organising around those values.

About The Author:

Simon Mair is a Research Fellow in Ecological Economics at the Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity, University of Surrey

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

#pandemic #coronavirus #futurism #the future of work

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chloes-yellow-cup · 4 years

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Copied and stolen in full from a friend on FB.

This reporter sums the entire dire situation here.

Powerful piece from the Irish Times’ political reporter. Hard to read, impossible to put down. Should be required reading for every American. In fact, they should hand out copies at the polls before letting anyone vote.

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Irish Times-April 25, 2020-By Fintan O’Toole

THE WORLD HAS LOVED, HATED AND ENVIED THE U.S. NOW, FOR THE FIRST TIME, WE PITY IT

Abject surrender

Fertile ground

Either way, it will be a long time before the rest of the world can imagine America being great again.

#the irish times #fintan o’toole #long post #it’s scary when people you used to think were rational post things that are’t logical #like ‘no vote by mail’ when they did it for years living in oregon #all because 45 says it would increase voter fraud

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