#fomc meeting

[forexassistance]

Important for the 29 SEP 2022

Data will release for #GDP #RBNZ #finalgdp #unemployment #fomc

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[dragonflycap]

What to expect from the stock market this week

Last week, the review of the macro market indicators saw with the first week of September in the books, equity markets reverted to weakness, trending lower all week. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($GLD) to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) continued to move lower. The US Dollar Index ($DXY) continued in broad consolidation while US Treasuries ($TLT) showed signs of a possible new uptrend. The Shanghai Composite ($ASHR) looked to continue the downtrend while Emerging Markets ($EEM) dropped back into a short term downtrend.

The Volatility Index ($VXX) looked to shift from low and stable to low and rising making the path more difficult for equity markets. Their charts looked weak on the shorter time frame as price pulled back from a lower high, but they remained above making a lower low for now. On the longer timeframe they looked stronger, but vulnerable with the $SPY strongest then the $IWM and the $QQQ the weakest.

The week played out with Gold pushing out of consolidation to the upside and ending at a new all-time high while Crude Oil found support and reversed higher midweek. The US Dollar met resistance and fell back in consolidation while Treasuries met resistance at a retest of the 2023 high and paused. The Shanghai Composite continued lower, closing in on the February low, while Emerging Markets found support and rose back over resistance.

Volatility moved lower all week to end just above the August low. This gave equities a boost midweek and they responded with a 3 day move higher to end the week. This resulted in the SPY back within spitting distance of the all-time high and the QQQ and the IWM ending back over their short term moving averages. What does this mean for the coming week? Let’s look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $SPY

The SPY came into the week in a pullback from a near retest of the top on the daily chart. It printed an inside day Monday and rose slightly Tuesday head of the CPI report Wednesday morning. In reaction to the report, it opened and drove lower for the 1st hour before reversing and ripping higher to close up 2.6% off the low of the day. It continued higher the rest of the week ending back at the August high. The RSI is rising near 60 with the MACD crossed up and positive.

The weekly chart shows the reversal of the prior week’s drop, noting that price held at the 20 week SMA. The 161.8% extension of the retracement of 2022 drop continues to play a key role as resistance. The RSI is rising in the bullish zone with the MACD flat and positive. There is resistance higher at 565.50. Support lower is at 561.50 and 556.50 then 549.50 and 545.75 before 542 and 540. Consolidation in Uptrend.

SPY Weekly, $SPY

Heading into the September FOMC meeting and Options Expiration, equity markets showed strength with a rebound from the week prior. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil consolidates in a short term downtrend. The US Dollar Index continues to drift lower in consolidation while US Treasuries are on the edge of a reversal to an uptrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the downtrend while Emerging Markets consolidate.

The Volatility Index looks to remain low and stabilizing making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts look strong, especially on the longer timeframe with the SPY on the edge of break to new highs while the IWM and QQQ hold near recent highs. On the shorter timeframe the SPY is also strong with the IWM and QQQ possibly building tightening consolidation zones. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview September 13, 2024

[beardedmrbean]

U.S. job growth during much of the past year was significantly weaker than previously reported, according to new data published Wednesday.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down its total tally of jobs created in the year through March by 818,000 as part of its preliminary annual benchmark review of payroll data. That suggests the economy added an average of 174,000 jobs per month during that time period — below the previous 242,000 estimate. On a monthly basis, that amounts to about 68,000 fewer jobs.

It marks the largest downward revision since 2009.

"The labor market appears weaker than originally reported," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. "A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to highlight both sides of the dual mandate and investors should expect the Fed to prepare markets for a cut at the September meeting."

US JOB GROWTH SLOWS TO 114K IN JULY WHILE UNEMPLOYMENT UNEXPECTEDLY JUMPS

The revised data is mostly derived from state unemployment tax records that employers are required to file. The figure, which is preliminary, may be updated when the government releases the final figure in February 2025.

Professional and business services accounted for nearly half of the downward revision. There were also large downward revisions in other sectors including manufacturing, leisure and hospitality and information.

Federal Reserve policymakers are closely watching for signs that the labor market is starting to crack in the face of high interest rates. 

Markets started to grow concerned about the state of the labor market after the worse-than-expected July jobs report, which showed that employers added just 114,000 jobs last month and the jobless rate unexpectedly climbed to 4.3%. 

The rise in unemployment triggered the so-called Sahm rule, an indicator that is used to provide an early recession signal. The rule stipulates that a recession is likely when the three-month moving average of the jobless rate is at least a half-percentage point higher than the 12-month low.

Over the past three months, the unemployment rate has averaged 4.13%, which is 0.63 percentage points higher than the 3.5% rate recorded in July 2023. The Sahm rule has successfully predicted every recession since 1970.

"The Fed will see the revisions as another reason to pull forward plans to reduce interest rates," said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. "The June dot plot, which showed most FOMC members thought only one or two quarter percentage point cuts would likely be appropriate by year-end, looks quite stale after this release."

Investors widely expect the Fed to cut rates at its next meeting on Sept. 18. About 67% think the Fed will make a standard 25-basis point reduction, while 32.5% are bracing for a bigger half-point cut.

[darkmaga-retard]

If the Fed cuts interest rates by only 25 basis points tomorrow, it will not heavily ramp up the equity markets

Sep 17, 2024

Every eye on Wall Street is on how much the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates after its meeting tomorrow. Again, not “if” but how much!

The guess on The Street, according to a CNBC Fed survey, is a 25-basis-point reduction. Should that be the number, it will do little to regenerate sagging economic and job growth. 

As for what the rate cuts will accomplish, this is how Gregory Mannarino sees it:

“This is how SEVERE the current issue is with central banks now inflating the world money supply at a pace which has never been seen before. (Keep in mind, this is going on at the same time that the world economy is contracting at its fastest pace on record). “The Global Broad Money Supply Reached $129 Trillion in December 2023. Global broad money supply increased from $26 trillion in 2000 to $129 trillion in 2023. During this period, the global money supply grew by 4.9 times, nominal GDP by 3.1 times, real GDP by 2.2 times, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by 2.6 times. “As I have explained REPEATEDLY. Inflation is a MONETARY POLICY ISSUE! And monetary policy is dictated by central banks. In this case, the Federal Reserve. This issue is about to get EXPONENTIALLY worse starting on Wednesday, yes, THIS Wednesday. (Conclusion of the FOMC meeting).”

Yes, the central banksters and the politicians have created the inflation model. Go back just a few years ago. In 2020, when they launched the COVID War and forced everybody to stay home and not go to work, they artificially propped up the economy by pumping in countless trillions of fake money backed by nothing and printed on nothing. 

[jeromepowell]

Who all will be tuning into the FOMC meeting tomorrow? You can watch me speak live if you want 🥺👉🏻👈🏻

[lauramueller2]

"We expect the FOMC to leave the fed funds rate unchanged next week, but for the communication to foreshadow rate cuts ahead," Macquarie said in a Friday note, forecasting 75 basis points of cuts this year, with the first cut in September.

Recent data showing slowing in the labor market and cooling inflation have put a September rate cut in the driving seat.

The core PCE price index, theFederal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.2% in June and 2.6% in the 12 months through June, compared with estimates for 0.2% and 2.5%, respectively.

This data will likely be reflected not only in the monetary policy that will follow the Fed's interest decision on Jul. 31, but also in remarks from Jerome Powell at the press conference.

"Chair Powell is likely to stress these points in his press conference, while also re-iterating that the Fed remains data dependent," Macquarie added.

While inflation has been the key focus for the Fed since its rate-hiking cycle got underway more than two years, Macquarie has believes Powell's remarks around the weakening in the labor market will be key.

To the extent Powell places more "emphasis on this side of the mandate (rather than solely inflation), it could fuel hopes for rate cuts and market risk appetite," Macquarie says, highlighting the most recent monthly nonfarm payrolls report showing unemployment rate rose to 4.1%.This uptick in unemployment to 4.1% is important because it is above the Fed's projection of 4% by year end that was released at the June meeting in its summary of economic projections.

In recent weeks, the Fed has faced mounting calls to ditch its higher for longer stance or risk missing the soft landing.

"A soft landing for the US economy could too easily slip away if unhelpful, noisy data delay an interest rate cut beyond September," Mohamed A. El-Erian wrote in a recent Bloomberg opinion piece.

El Erian's warning for the Fed comes amid worries that the Fed's data dependent approach risks the central bank cutting rates too late should inflation in the coming months surprise to the upside.

[beyourselfchulanmaria]

Live updates: Fed rate decision September

今日聯準會會議結果 Fed meeting outcome yesterday 🙄🤑😴

The impact of yesterday’s Fed meeting results on the euro and the economy... (perhaps stock market will gap up soon. 🤔🤨)

🤣 😂 … 🦕

[ennovance]

• Morgan Stanley’s dealmaking fees rise 16% despite M&A slide

The Wall Street bank hiked pay 4% to reflect improved performance

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/morgan-stanley-first-quarter-20240416

• Bank of America’s dealmaking unit jumps 35% on capital markets gains

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/bank-of-america-first-quarter-results-20240416?mod=topic_investment-banking

• “For two years, the Fed was saying, “Interest rates are going higher.”

 

That message resulted in very little activity in capital markets, with low levels of IPO, M&A, sponsor-to-sponsor deals, or sponsor-to-strategic deals.

 

This changed at the December 2023 meeting when the Fed said, “Interest rates are now going lower.”

 

The impact of this signal change from the FOMC was profound. It triggered a significant rally in the S&P500 and in IG, HY, and loans. As a result, capital markets reopened and LBO financings have rebounded significantly since December, see chart below.

 

With the Fed still saying that the next move in rates is lower, we should expect the rebound to continue.”

-Slok

[tygerzs-blog]

FOMC

💯 On Wednesday, the curtain lifted on the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes, revealing a surprising level of division among Fed members concerning potential interest rate hikes for the forthcoming meeting scheduled for June 14.🎉

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Monday: Alkermes, Citigroup, Caterpillar, Neogen and EchoStar

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Alkermes, Ticker: $ALKS

Alkermes, $ALKS, comes into the week testing resistance. It has a RSI rising in the bullish zone with the MACD positive. Look for a solid break of resistance to participate…..

Citigroup, Ticker: $C

Citigroup, $C, comes into the week approaching resistance. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD rising near zero. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Caterpillar, Ticker: $CAT

Caterpillar, $CAT, comes into the week approaching the all-time high. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD rising. Look for a new high to participate…..

Neogen, Ticker: $NEOG

Neogen, $NEOG, comes into the week testing resistance. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

EchoStar, Ticker: $SATS

EchoStar, $SATS, comes into the week in consolidation. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with a MACD positive. Look for a break up from consolidation to participate…..

If you like what you see sign up for more ideas and deeper analysis using this Get Premium link.  

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which heading into the September FOMC meeting and Options Expiration, saw heading into the last full week of September, equity markets showed strength following the FOMC’s first rate cut in 4 years.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its uptrend while Crude Oil bounces in its downtrend. The US Dollar Index continues to hold lower in consolidation while US Treasuries are failing at levels that could reverse to an uptrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the bounce in  the downtrend while Emerging Markets rise in consolidation.

The Volatility Index looks to remain low and stabilizing making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts look strong, especially on the longer timeframe with the SPY making a new all-time high Thursday, breaking a range.  The IWM and QQQ are holding up on the edge of a range break to the upside. On the shorter timeframe the SPY is also strong with the IWM and QQQ building momentum as price reaches the August highs. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

[jointhekings]

WHAT MAKES THE FOREX MARKET MOVE?

There are many factors and forces behind the movement of currencies in the FX market. Given the unique and complex nature of each and every economy around the globe, it is almost an impossible task to identify all the forces that drive currency prices.

Forex market reacts to all the supply and demand factors such as interest rates, gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, government policy, economic health, and many other factors. People read these facts and each interprets them differently and takes positions based on their interpretation of the fact.

Of course, opinions and interpretations differ from one person to another and they all draw different conclusions from the facts they see. Therefore, this causes prices to go in a different direction to where generally majority of the traders think they will.

There are generally fundamental factors that move the currency market.

Below are the four most important economic releases that move the forex market.

1) Interest rates

Interest rate movements are among the most powerful fundamental factors that move the forex market. They are set by central banks.

Generally, higher interest rates increase the value of a country’s currency. Higher interest rates tend to attract foreign investment, increasing the demand for and value of the home country’s currency.

Conversely, lower interest rates tend to be unattractive for foreign investment and decrease the currency’s relative value.

One of the most anticipated interest rate decisions is released by the federal reserve followed by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that releases a statement to inform the general public of its monetary policy decision, regardless of whether or not rates have been changed. It is scheduled 8 times a year and it is released at 2:00 pm ET.

This specific economic release has a high impact on the Forex market and has a direct impact on the US dollar currency pairs (Major Pairs).

Federal Reserve interest rate decisions can move the market substantially in a very short period of time usually seconds after its release. Thus traders have to take extra caution when such important economic news is about to be released.

2) Non-Farm payroll

Another very important economic news is Non-farm payroll. Non-farm payroll figures refer to any job in the economy with the exception of farm work and other situations such as those employed within the military and intelligence agencies.

This release holds such influence because it provides a gauge for investors to determine whether corporations are hiring. If the report comes strong and improving, it can suggest that companies are expanding and hiring new labours and the new labours have money to spend, which will, in turn, fuel broad economic growth.

Growing workforces and a strong economy will often lead to a strengthening currency.

It is released by the Bureau of labour statistics and it is released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends at 8:30 am ET.

It usually comes out at the same time as the Canadian unemployment rate, thus it can move the market substantially. The currency pair affected directly by both of these releases is the US dollar versus the Canadian dollar (USD/CAD).

3) Retail Sales

Retail sales is another high-impact economic release, it is the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. Retail sales are important economic indicators because they measure consumer spending, which drives the economy and signals its health.

Retail sales data is compiled differently according to each country and their bureau of statistics.

For the United States, the data is divided into US Retail Sales and US Core Retail Sales, which excludes autos and gasoline.

4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

GDP is considered the broadest measure of a country’s economy, and it represents the total market value of all goods and services produced in a country during a given year. GDP is one of the most-watched economic indicators in the forex market because it signals whether an economy is expanding or contracting and how much it is changing relative to the opinion of analysts.

However, one has to consider that GDP is known to be a lagging economic indicator.

5) Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The consumer price index (CPI) measures inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

When inflation is too low, a central bank like the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates to spur economic activity.

When inflation is too high, interest rates may be raised to stabilize prices.

Higher interest rates tend to be attractive for foreign investment and increase the value of a country’s currency.

Conversely, lower interest rates tend to be unattractive for foreign investment and decrease the currency’s relative value.

Besides the above-mentioned indicators, other major indicators that traders should watch closely include the purchasing managers index (PMI), durable goods report, industrial production, employment cost index (ECI), and producer price index.

#THEKING

[commoditysamachar]

The US Stock prices swayed rather wildly, and led to a downfall after the FOMC meet. To know more about Metal and US Indices visit us on https://commoditysamachar.com/ or call us at +91 7968158368.

[jeromepowell]

Me discussing raising rates again with the boys at the FOMC meeting today

Tune in tomorrow to hear what I have to say!

[sa7abnews]

Stock market today: Dow ends at a record high as markets see rising odds of another big rate cut

New Post has been published on Sa7ab News

Stock market today: Dow ends at a record high as markets see rising odds of another big rate cut

Odds of another 50 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s next FOMC meeting in November hit 53% on Monday compared to 29% one week ago.

... read more !