#jaren plus foured him again

[gastcrrific]

Kryoz, walking in the room late for a party, after a recorded game of UNO: Sorry, I'm late guys, I was busy doing things.

SMii7Y, crippled: HE PUSHED ME DOWN THE FUCKING STAIRS

[nbatrades]

Atlanta Hawks Acquire Chandler Parsons in Three-Player Deal with Memphis Grizzlies

On July 7th, 2019, the Memphis Grizzlies traded forward Chandler Parsons to the Atlanta Hawks for forward Solomon Hill and center Miles Plumlee.

For small market NBA teams, high-priced free agent signings are a risky proposition. Not many high-level free agents want to play in places like Indiana or Memphis, so it forces them to offer lucrative deals to convince that free agent to sign. This situation happened in Memphis in 2016, when the Grizzlies signed forward Chandler Parsons to a max four-year, $94 million contract.

The fit seemed ideal. The Grizzlies had gone far enough with the core of center Marc Gasol, guard Mike Conley, power forward Zach Randolph and wing Tony Allen, but they needed better offensive play on the wing and at the four. 

A hybrid forward, Parsons had shot 38% from the three-point line up to that point and had become a legitimate offensive weapon in his stops in Houston and Dallas. He could be the player to give Memphis’ sometime plodding offense a jolt.

There was one caveat to the signing of Parsons. Injuries had severely limited him the past two years. He missed the end of the 2015-16 regular season and the playoffs with surgery on the meniscus in his right knee. The year prior to that, Parsons had arthroscopic surgery on the same knee. The knee issues were why his incumbent team, the Mavericks had opted not to re-sign the forward and let him walk.

Parsons’ right knee issues cropped up as soon as Grizzlies training camp began. Expected to be ready for the beginning of the season, Parsons missed the first six games. He returned for six contests on a minutes restriction before missing the next 18 games.

Parsons would return, but was ineffective and limited still. He never played more than 25 minutes a game. Overall, he ended up playing 34 games before he was shutdown for the rest of the season with a partial meniscus tear in his left knee. Parsons ended up with 6.2 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.6 APG and 0.6 SPG in 19.9 MPG.

The Grizzlies got off to a solid start under new coach David Fizdale during the 2016-17 season, going 17-8 in their first 25 games. They peaked after 61 games, reaching 36-25. With the team at 40-30, they went 3-9 to fall to 43-39. The Grizzlies finished seventh in the West. 

They played the San Antonio Spurs in the first round. The Spurs took the first two games of the series at home. Grizzlies guard Mike Conley dominated in Games Three and Four as Memphis tied the series 2-2. The Spurs won the next two games to win the series 4-2.

Memphis shed some of the grit and grind era in the offseason, allowing veterans Allen and Randolph to walk in free agency. The Grizzlies brought in Tyreke Evans and Mario Chalmers (free agency) as well as rookie Dillon Brooks in the draft.

Parsons was out for much of the season once again with right knee soreness, maintenance on the knee that kept him out of back-to-backs and abdominal pain. He ended up playing in 36 games (eight starts) and amassed 7.9 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.9 APG and 0.5 SPG in 19.2 MPG.

Meanwhile, Memphis was really hit by the injury bug. Mike Conley missed 70 games due to a sore left heel and achilles tendon. The injury eventually required surgery. Without key fixtures like Conley, the Grizzlies struggled. They were 5-1 in their first six games and 7-6 through 13 games before Conley’s longterm injury.

After Conley’s injury, Memphis went 15-54 over the next 69 games to finish 22-60, the franchise’s worst record since the 2007-08 season. In the midst of their disappointing season, coach David Fizdale (who had feuded with Gasol) was fired and replaced by assistant J.B. Bickerstaff.

Thanks to their bad record, the Grizzlies wound up with the fourth pick, where they selected forward Jaren Jackson Jr. from Michigan State. With Conley returning and Jackson at power forward playing alongside Gasol at center, Parsons’ role became even more cloudy.

By his third season with the Grizzlies, Parsons’ injury had taken its toll on the strained relationship between player and organization. Parsons played the first three games of the 2018-19 season before he was forced to sit out with right knee soreness. The day-to-day status of the injury eventually transformed into an indefinite absence.

Parsons was medically cleared to play December 21. Grizzlies general manager Chris Wallace requested that Parsons go on extended assignments with the Grizzlies’ G-League affiliate, the Memphis Hustle. Parsons declined on two separate occasions. 

Eventually, Wallace and Parsons agreed on the forward training away from the club in Los Angeles for a month. Memphis looked for a potential trade to dissolve the souring relationship, but couldn’t find takers for Parsons’ onerous contract and shaky medical history.

After much consternation, Parsons returned in late February and played the rest of the season for a Grizzlies club that was out of the playoff race. The forward played in 22 of the team’s final 23 games, averaging 7.7 PPG on 37% shooting. Parsons finished with 7.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 1.7 APG and 0.8 SPG in 25 contests and 19.8 MPG.

Memphis began the season a surprising 12-5, but their success was short-lived. They dropped 25 of their next 32 games to fall to 19-30. Memphis shifted from a playoff contender to a rebuild when they traded longtime star center Marc Gasol to the Toronto Raptors. 

They also traded key role players JaMychal Green and Garrett Temple to the Los Angeles Clippers. The Grizzlies began prioritizing playing their younger players and suffered in the loss column, finishing 33-49.

Memphis’ rebuild continued in the 2019 offseason. The team traded Conley to the Utah Jazz and drafted point guard Ja Morant with the second overall pick. Another move was getting rid of Parsons with a trade to the Atlanta Hawks for Solomon Hill and Miles Plumlee. Memphis had tried to negotiate to a buyout with Parsons, but both parties couldn’t come to terms.

With just one year left on his deal, the Grizzlies were basically able to swap out Parson’s high expiring salary ($25.1 million) and break it into two smaller expiring deals in Hill ($12.7 million) and Plumlee ($12.5 million). 

The Hawks also were able to free up a roster spot after the deal. The major plus of course, was Memphis and Parsons splitting after a failed partnership.

Parsons turned out to be unable to become a franchise savior and the third option in Memphis. For the Grizzlies, spending $94 million on an ineffective and oft-unavailable player was damaging and played a part in the team’s fall from a consistent playoff team to a team on the come up.

Parsons ended his time in Memphis with a stat line of 7.2 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.8 APG and 0.6 SPG in 95 appearances. The forward shot 39% from the field, 34% from the three-point line and 78% from the free-throw line.

Miles Plumlee joined the Atlanta Hawks after he was traded by the Charlotte Hornets with Marco Belinelli and for Dwight Howard. Both teams swapped second rounders in the deal. Atlanta had entered a rebuild when they let free agents Paul Millsap and Tim Hardaway Jr. sign with other teams. Trading Howard was also a signal of that as well.

Plumlee got off to a slow start on and off the court after he was traded to Atlanta. He was arrested for marijuana possession (charges were later dismissed). Plumlee also missed the beginning of the 2017-18 season with a strained right quad.

When he returned to the lineup, Plumlee became a starter after Dewayne Dedmon suffered an injury. Plumlee started 34 of 35 games (4.6 PPG and 4.0 RPG in 17.4 MPG) before losing his spot in the rotation to a returning Dedmon. 

Overall, Plumlee was a solid rim runner on offense and good on defense, posting a modest 4.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 0.8 APG and 0.5 BPG in 55 games (35 starts) and 16.7 MPG. The Hawks were one of the worst teams in the NBA that season, going 3-15 in their first 18 games. They finished with a 24-58 record.

Atlanta underwent massive changes the next season. First, the team and coach Mike Budenholzer parted ways and general manager Travis Schlenk hired Lloyd Pierce as his replacement. On the personnel front, the team acquired three first round picks in the 2018 draft in Trae Young, Kevin Huerter and Omari Spellman. 

With Dedmon, Alex Len and Spellman all vying for minutes at the center, Plumlee’s minutes were reduced. He appeared in 18 games (4.4 PPG, 2.2 RPG, and 0.9 APG in 9.6 MPG) before having a lingering left knee issue that kept him out of action. He had a non-surgical procedure on the knee in early January. Plumlee re-injured the left knee while trying to return from injury and had to have season-ending cartilage arthroscopic surgery in late March.

Solomon Hill was acquired by the Hawks in a deal with the New Orleans Pelicans that allowed them to draft forward Deandre Hunter in the lottery. Soon after, the Hawks redirected Hill and included Plumlee in the trade for Chandler Parsons from the Memphis Grizzlies. 

Plumlee ended his stint with Atlanta with a stat line of 4.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 0.8 APG and 0.5 BPG in 73 games. He shot 60% from the field and 48% from the free-throw line.

After the trade, Parsons was on the Hawks roster, but was either inactive or didn’t play due to coach’s decision for much of his time there. His run in Atlanta ended quick after he was injured in a car accident that involved a man who was arrested for drunk driving. Parsons suffered what his representation Morgan & Morgan characterized as “multiple severe and permanent injuries including a traumatic brain injury, disc herniation and a torn labrum.”

Soon after, Parsons was waived to make room for the newly acquired Clint Capela. Parsons played in just five games with the Hawks, averaging 2.8 PPG and 1.4 RPG in 10.8 MPG.

Plumlee saw limited time in preseason before being waived by the Grizzlies in training camp. Hill was somewhat of a surprise in Memphis, becoming a rotation piece for a youthful Grizzlies squad on the rise. The Grizzlies lost 13 of their first 18 games, but eventually started to come around under new head coach Taylor Jenkins and reach .500.

Hill played in 48 games and posted 5.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.0 APG and 0.6 SPG in 18.8 MPG. Hill was traded to the Miami Heat with Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala in a three-team, seven-player deal that saw Justise Winslow head to Memphis. Memphis was 25-25 at the time of the trade.

Chandler Parsons on joining the Hawks (via The Atlanta Journal-Constitution):

“So excited. Just to have a fresh start with an organization like the Hawks is incredible to me. The young core that they have is really something special. I’ve seen if from afar. When you look at the depth they have and the age that these kids are, it’s impressive. Hopefully, we can keep these guys together for a long time. They have a chance. I’m excited to come and help anyway possible – lead these young guys, try to stay healthy and contribute any way I can this last year and we’ll see what happens.”

On his bad luck with injuries:

“It’s unfortunate. No one wants to get hurt. Everyone wants to play. You see all the stuff off the court, your contract, but when you are not doing what you love, it hurts. The last three years have really taken a toll on me and it was frustrating. But at the same time, I still have a lot left. When I’m healthy, I’m still an efficient, good player in this league.”

On getting back into the swing of things after injuries:

“Starting to basically go full-go. I’ve been working out for a month or two. Feel good. Body feels good. Knees feel good. I’ll be ready to go.”

Image Credit:

Chandler Parsons: Getty Images/Scott Cunningham

Solomon Hill: Getty Images/Joe Murphy

Miles Plumlee: Getty Images/Zach Beeker

[junker-town]

6 NBA veterans who will bounce back after disappointing seasons

Dejounte Murray, Marvin Bagley III, and Mike Conley should all bounce back next year.

Don’t write off these NBA players yet. They will be better next year.

The most disappointing players in 2020 who will break out/bounce back in 2021

There’s something fascinating about players who exit a season having failed to meet the public’s expectations. They’re infuriating, but also strangely relatable in more alluring ways than a machine-like superstar ever could be. Who among us doesn’t know how it feels to let other people down?

In the NBA, disappointment materializes in different ways for different reasons. Some situations are straightforward while others are inexplicable. Maybe there was an unexpected injury or the sudden onset of father time, or a complementary teammate was traded, short-circuiting a role someone used to thrive in. It’s a fluid, ambiguous, performance-driven league. So often we never find the answers we’re looking for because they don’t exist. Progress is not linear or automatic, and the same melody that warbles through even the most impressive careers will inevitably get interrupted by a record scratch or two.

But there’s also half-cup-full good news: down years are almost always followed by an opportunity to make amends. This applies to every player who sputtered through the 2020 season that is written about below. Each one is positioned to bounce back in 2021/whenever regular season basketball is played again.

Marvin Bagley III

Context is everything, even when the introduction to your NBA career has been as rough as Marvin Bagley’s was. It’s not his fault the Sacramento Kings picked him ahead of Luka Doncic or even Jaren Jackson Jr. It’s also not fair to blame Bagley for breaking his thumb in the opener of his second season, then spraining his foot a couple months later. (When he reaggrevated that foot injury in late January, Bagley deactivated his social media accounts.)

Criticism is indeed warranted, though. When healthy, Bagley has not been efficient. He lacks an obvious position/role, doesn’t shoot threes, has as many blocks as assists, and remains a tad, shall we say, predictable with his left hand.

But it’s still too early to diagnose any firm limitations. The 21-year-old’s talent base is too extensive. To say nothing of his physical condition or confidence issues (almost every time he catches the ball on the wing his man begs him to shoot), it’s not easy to justify hype while learning the ropes of your adolescent NBA existence on one of the most dysfunctional organizations in professional sports.

Bagley has tried to plow his own lane in lineups that weren’t arranged to accentuate his strengths, already under two different coaches in two very different systems. That’s not easy, but riveting glimpses have already shined through the cracks; at some point Bagley will harness his absolute freak athleticism and blossom into the matchup nightmare he’s destined to be.

His second jump is second only to Zion Williamson’s, while his feet and wingspan were built to lock up taller guards and wings in isolation. If/when Luke Walton takes the seatbelt off this team and lets them run, Bagley and De’Aaron Fox will be a fireworks display in transition. He’ll eventually shoot more threes while continuing to take advantage of his size and length on quick duck-ins that highlight a soft touch few big men ever possess. There’s a monster lurking below the surface here. Even though his sophomore season was a total dud, do not sleep on a volcanic eruption in year three.

Mike Conley

Mike Conley was supposed to congeal a team that couldn’t overcome its own lack of individual playmakers in the playoffs every year. Instead Conley barely shot 40 percent from the field and struggled to define his place in an environment that was stylistically dissimilar from what he experienced in Memphis. Marc Gasol and Rudy Gobert are very different dance partners; Conley never found the right rhythm with Gobert, an awkward reality that chipped away at his confidence and gave birth to one too many over-thought floaters — a shot no point guard except Tyus Jones relied on more.

The Jazz are a good team, but worse on both ends with Conley on the floor. Their dominant starting lineup also had an identity crisis that nearly curdled as the season went along. Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale, and Conley were yanked in and out of it despite the fact that Utah was 21-8 when their new point guard either came off the bench or didn’t play at all.

Now, it might be that Conley is simply on his way out. He’s a small 32-year-old weighed down by years of nagging injuries. But assuming Gobert and Donovan Mitchell are both in Utah next season, that doesn’t mean Conley can’t find comfort in a reduced role, running a second unit, finding myriad ways to contribute off the ball while expending more energy on defense.

The Jazz are smart. Going forward they won’t expect him to be the borderline all-star floor general they thought they were getting. Reducing Conley’s responsibilities could lessen any pressure he felt coming in as a marquee trade acquisition, now in a contract year, scrapping for the last payday of his career. In 2021, Conley also won’t be unfamiliar with his surroundings. If he lowers his usage and ups his efficiency while Mitchell makes another leap towards superstardom, the Jazz can still be one of the most feared teams in the Western Conference. Their ceiling drops a bit, but at least they know exactly what they have.

Dejounte Murray

Sometimes I wonder where the Spurs would be if Murray didn’t tear his ACL during a preseason game in 2018. The timing was brutal, an aborted takeoff that accelerated San Antonio’s decline. Think about what could’ve been.

Muray’s scene-stealing defensive anticipation at the tender age of 21 was worthy of genuflection. The way he popped his head over jostling big men to grab rebounds was game altering. Murray didn’t shoot threes, but would instead add colorful dimensions to a proud yet creaky team that needed the 98 mile per hour fastball he was all set to provide.

Single-handedly extending the Spurs’ era of prosperity was unlikely, but healthy Murray could’ve at least slowed their inevitable crawl towards extinction while clarifying their future. After he missed the entire 2018-19 season, the Spurs signed him to a four-year, $64 million extension anyway. What followed was an underwhelming, inconsistent campaign in which Murray only averaged 25 minutes per game on a mediocre squad that was outright bad with him on the court. Gregg Popovich treated Murray like Danny Green. The gloss was gone.

Meanwhile, I still have two feet pressed on the gas of Murray’s bandwagon. Whether the Spurs finally hit the reset button or trudge along with DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge for another year, my life savings are bet on Murray establishing himself as one of the better young guards in basketball. His jump shot came around this season (47 percent from the mid-range!) and my gut tells me all the struggle he endured over the past 19 months will only turn him into a more dangerous force than he’d otherwise be.

Aaron Gordon

An all-tantalizing first-teamer for at least the last four years, no player in the entire NBA does less with more than Gordon. Some of that’s on him, but not all of it; Gordon has struggled to find the right role while refusing to accept what the right role looks like. I go back to 2016 when Frank Vogel mistakenly said Gordon would be used like Paul George. That Magic team had structural limitations that were beyond Vogel’s control, but the statement placed Gordon’s career on a path of self-willed miscalculation.

He will never be an MVP candidate, max player, or someone who can singularly break down a set defense and create an efficient shot for his team. That’s all fine and less a criticism than an expression of reality. Gordon is not a bad player by any stretch, but for the second year in a row his PER, three-point rate, and scoring average were lower than the previous season. He jacked up 3.9 threes per game and made just 30.1 percent of them.

This is discouraging. But until Gordon’s body breaks down I will go to war believing he’ll have a signature playoff moment, be it a chasedown block, a fire drill possession where he scrambles onto four different players before stealing the ball, or a Cirque du Soleil-worthy open floor slam that seals a victory.

We have yet to see who Gordon can be on a track that can actualize his massive potential. If basketball gods do in fact exist, sooner than later we will. (Related: Can someone move him to Brooklyn for Spencer Dinwiddie already?)

Gary Harris

When in peak form, few are able to harass the opposing team’s most lethal perimeter threat like Harris. He’s a cat burglar with the instincts of a strong safety. Unfortunately, for the past couple years several muscles in his lower body have prevented Harris from merging those qualities with some of the explosive offensive production we saw earlier in his career.

I went in depth on Harris’ situation earlier this year, but TL;DR: injuries can’t alone absolve how bad he’s shot the ball. A lot of his struggle remains a mystery. That’s not good news, per se, but it also doesn’t close the door on Harris rediscovering who he once was.

Eric Gordon

Playing with Russell Westbrook is not like playing with Chris Paul. Eric Gordon had a ton of success with the latter partnership, but we’ve yet to really see him at his healthiest beside Westbrook. That’s a shame. The tidal wave of instant, unflinching Moreyball offense those two could generate at the same time more than justifies the team’s small-ball identity, where narrow canals have become gaping waterways; Houston posted a +10.7 net rating in the measly 93 possessions those three plus PJ Tucker and James Harden shared the floor. In my heart I believe that unit can stand nose-to-nose with anybody in the league during crunch time of a Game 7.

Of course, for that to happen Gordon would have to be the aggressive stud he was during last year’s playoffs and not the guy who shot 37 percent from the floor, 31 percent from behind the three-point line, and 54 percent at the rim in 34 games this season. Gordon missed about six weeks of action after having knee surgery in early November, and before the procedure his numbers were career-worst gutter sludge across the board. But none of his shooting numbers increased in the months after he came back, while lingering knee pain kept him in and out of the lineup.

The hope going forward is that an extended layoff will do his legs good and allow him to be 100 percent next year. Gordon is somehow only 31 years old, on the same timeline as Harden and Westbrook with a game that somehow doesn’t suck up the oxygen both all-stars require. In September he signed a $75 million extension that simultaneously made him a trade chip and someone worth holding onto — if for no other reason than Houston has enough talent to win a championship right now and Gordon’s seamless fit on both ends isn’t easily replaceable.

We live in an age of impatience, but if the Rockets are willing to stick with their current roster for at least 12 more months it could pay off in a big way. That calculation needs Gordon to resemble the Sixth Man of the Year winner he once was. Or even, at the very least, making more than 28 percent of the 5.8 catch-and-shoot threes he averaged this season. Bet on improvement. He scored 50 points on 22 shots (against the Jazz!) in January, then was hampered by recurring knee pain the rest of the year.

There’s plenty of great basketball left in Gordon, and nothing scarier than the day he, Harden, and Westbrook have an opportunity to thrive at the exact same time.

[jodyedgarus]

What Has Surprised Us Most So Far This NBA Season — And What Hasn’t Surprised Us At All

As we cross the one-quarter mark of the NBA season — with the Clippers in first place out West, the Kings playing .500 ball, and the Jazz and Rockets near the bottom looking up — things are starting to come into clearer focus. That clarity is more than welcome, given how topsy-turvy the league has been for the first month and a half of play.

We know a lot will change between now and April, but for the time being, here are the five things we’ve been most and least surprised by so far this year.

Surprising: The Celtics haven’t been good, and the Jazz have been even worse.

Boston, finally healthy after losing two of its best players last year, has been one of the bigger mysteries of the season. The Celtics have been elite defensively again this year,1 but the offense — which almost never gets to the line — can’t get out of its own way much of the time.

Before the season began, Jaylen Brown expressed a belief that the starting wings (him, Gordon Hayward and Jayson Tatum) have nearly identical skill sets, which was affecting chemistry. And after watching them for a month and a half, we can’t say that he was wrong. With that in mind, Brad Stevens’s recent lineup shift to bring the struggling Hayward off the bench could help matters.

Hayward and Brown, in particular, have both shot far better from the floor when playing apart from each other. Hayward sports a solid 53.9 percent effective field-goal rate without Brown but just 39.7 percent with him. And Brown’s 50.5 percent effective field-goal rate without Hayward is well above the 38.5 percent mark he posts while sharing the court with Hayward.

Their net ratings also improve when playing apart. The Celtics outscore opponents by 9 points per 100 possessions with Hayward but without Brown, and Boston wins by a margin of 1.5 points per 100 when Brown is on the court but Hayward is on the sideline. But the Celtics hemorrhage 2.2 points per 100 possessions with the two playing together.

Using floor-spacing forward Marcus Morris as a starter may work better because of his rugged screen-setting ability. His off-ball screens, useful for a lineup with so many scoring options on the wing, produce the best scoring efficiency of any player on the team2 at 1.12 points per possession when both Tatum and Hayward are on the floor and a whopping 1.53 points per possession when Tatum and Brown are playing together, according to Second Spectrum.

It’s also worth keeping an eye on Terry Rozier, who, to this point, has regressed badly on the offensive end after a highly encouraging postseason run, in which he filled in admirably for the injured Kyrie Irving.

As for the Jazz, this — 10-12, and third-to-last in the West — is what happens when your league-best defense from last season is merely a middle-of-the-road one, and your offense not only fails to improve but actually morphs into one of the NBA’s five worst in that same window.

What’s behind Utah’s slide? A handful of theories have been discussed. But two things stand out to me: 1) The team’s schedule — the toughest in the league3 — has been front-loaded, and 2) a number of players aren’t playing to their capabilities.

Outside of a one-week stretch at the end of October, Donovan Mitchell has been terribly inconsistent, struggling badly from outside. Dante Exum’s offense still isn’t catching up to his defense. And perhaps the biggest issue: Ricky Rubio has been awful on both sides of the ball thus far — even more than he was to start last season, when he had just joined the club and was learning the ropes.

Rubio has generally been able to hang his hat on his defense and his passing whenever he’s struggling to shoot. But this season, he has sometimes looked a half-step slower laterally on D, allowing nearly a 10th of a point more per drive he defends, at 0.98 points per play, than he did last season, according to Second Spectrum. And while opponents have long sagged off Rubio, daring him to shoot, that experiment has paid far greater dividends this season, as he’s logged just a 46.6 percent effective field goal rate on jumpers when given 6 or more feet of open space4 — down from 53.5 percent just last year, and the worst percentage he’s connected on since the 2013-14 campaign, according to NBA Advanced Stats.

It’s still a little early to consider changing the lineup — especially after Rubio played so well at times last postseason. But if he doesn’t turn it around in the next month or so, it might be worth trying a new starting five and letting Mitchell handle the ball more. (Utah, realizing it needs more punch on offense, traded guard Alec Burks and two future second-rounders Wednesday for sharpshooter Kyle Korver.)

We wrote this summer that we believed the Jazz could be true contenders this season — which looks incredibly wrong at the moment. But we said then that much of Utah’s hopes would hinge on Rubio’s play. For better or — to this point — perhaps for worse, that seems to be the case.

Not surprising: The Grizzlies got back to Grit ’N’ Grind.

A lot of people either wrote off or simply forgot about the Grizzlies after a dismal 2017-18 campaign in which they finished with 22 wins and the second-worst record in the league. But the case for believing in Memphis this season was relatively straightforward: This group, finally healthy with the return of Mike Conley and a more motivated Marc Gasol, had its best players back and added considerable two-way talent over the summer through a handful of deals.

Rookie Jaren Jackson Jr. looks like a potential star at times and is already the real deal defensively. The Memphis defense can be overly aggressive at times in helping from the weak side, which leaves corner shooters open more often than most teams. But the Grizzlies’ D is a top-5 unit, and it gets downright nasty when Jackson and Gasol play together, surrendering just 96.8 points per 100 possessions in 287 minutes. (Oklahoma City, which leads the NBA in defensive efficiency, allows 102.6 points per 100 possessions.)

In case you need a sign of how smart the Grizzlies’ offseason pickups were, consider this: The team’s three most-efficient rotation players5 to this point — Omri Casspi, Shelvin Mack and Jackson — were all acquisitions from this summer. Gasol is fourth on that list, but right behind him is Garrett Temple, for whom the Grizzlies traded.

So don’t be too surprised if Memphis continues to hang around in the playoff race. There were indications all along that the Grizzlies would find themselves in the midst of this conversation.

Surprising: Derrick Rose’s offense came back to life.

Rose’s first career 50-point game earlier this year got considerable attention, but that game was no fluke: This whole season in Minnesota has been a consistent one for the former MVP. From an efficiency standpoint, he’s actually never played this well before.

He’s shooting a career-best 49.8 percent from the field, and his 60 percent mark from a true shooting standpoint is 5 points better than he’s had in any other season. Rose used to be among the NBA’s worst 3-point shooters — enough of a liability that he essentially stopped taking triples altogether in New York — but he’s been good from that range, too. The 30-year-old, who’s long been a surprisingly good midrange shooter despite having the flattest shot in the game, is better than 48 percent from 3-point distance on almost four attempts per game to this point. His hot start even has him ranking as one of the NBA’s 15 most efficient offensive players, according to ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus metric.

It’s still early, but this shooting display — even if his numbers fall off some — figures to lengthen his career, a meaningful development based on how things were going 10 months ago. We knew his otherworldly athleticism wouldn’t be the same after all his injuries, but a steady jumper has changed his outlook.

Not surprising: The Rockets-Melo marriage failed.

We, like many others, fully recognized the potential pitfalls with Houston’s Carmelo Anthony acquisition this summer. He seemed a less-than-ideal fit, particularly as a sort of replacement for the switchy wing defenders the Rockets lost in Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute. So it’s not necessarily shocking that the experiment didn’t work.

But never did we imagine that the team would pull the plug as quickly as it did. Houston cut bait on the fallen star just 10 games in — even though other clear problems seemed to exist (like the lack of depth behind Clint Capela, or Eric Gordon shooting far worse than he ever has). Still, it’s somewhat difficult to knock the haste with which the Rockets made the decision: They couldn’t afford to fall too far behind in the loaded Western Conference, where the playoff race figures to be a bloodbath, and they began playing far better after making the pragmatic choice to hold Melo out of the rotation. But even after winning five straight at one point earlier in the month, Houston now finds itself mired in a four-game skid, meaning that there’s more for this club to figure out.

Surprising: California’s other NBA teams have been legitimately good.

It was totally fair to wonder whether Los Angeles might be a factor in the Western Conference playoffs this season, but who would’ve thought that the Clippers would be the team making that kind of noise at this point in the year? (In fairness, LeBron James and the Lakers have played well lately, too, and may very well find themselves in the same conversation as we move forward.)

A number of things illustrate how and why Doc Rivers’s team finds itself atop the West for the time being. The guard rotation of Patrick Beverley, Avery Bradley and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has done a fantastic job of defending; the Clippers have held opposing starting guards to 40.9 percent shooting, the NBA’s fourth-lowest figure through Tuesday’s games, per the ESPN Stats & Information Group. Danilo Gallinari, who hasn’t played more than 65 games in a campaign in six seasons, has missed only one game thus far and is shooting better than he ever has from outside.

But above all else, the Clips have thrived because Tobias Harris — tied with Giannis Antetokounmpo for the league’s best effective field-goal percentage among wing players with at least 300 shot attempts — has quietly pieced together the offensive profile of a superstar this season. Between the huge leap he’s made and the gains of Victor Oladipo, the Orlando Magic front office has to be beside itself after trading away both players.

And while Golden State has been Golden State so far, another Northern California team has been making a move. The Kings own a 10-10 mark and have been one of the more entertaining clubs so far. Just about everything begins and ends with their blistering pace. It seems possible that their ability to maintain that 106-possessions-per-48-minutes tempo for entire games may work to their advantage in the clutch, when Sacramento’s opponents simply don’t have anything left.

Sacramento ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency in the first quarter, 25th in the second period and tied for 16th in the third, yet it sits sixth in fourth-quarter defense, right behind the defending champ Warriors. And get this: Despite the pace at which they play, the De’Aaron Fox-led Kings have yet to commit a clutch-time turnover this season — they’re the only team that can still make such a claim this late in the season. It’s part of the reason they are 8-3 — best in the Western Conference — in contests separated by 5 points or fewer with five minutes or less remaining, per NBA.com.

Not bad for the NBA’s third-youngest team, one whose young players all seem to have taken a step forward this season.

Check out our latest NBA predictions.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-has-surprised-us-most-so-far-this-nba-season-and-what-hasnt-surprised-us-at-all/

[zeroviraluniverse-blog]

Looking at the list of teams that can really win the national championship

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Looking at the list of teams that can really win the national championship

The NCAA tournament welcomes a diverse pool of teams, all chasing a spot in the Final Four and a chance to win the national championship.

College basketball’s parity and its system of crowning a champion create a unique opportunity for the game’s underdogs. There is no George Mason in college football’s playoff or the NBA Finals. College basketball, however, sends invitations to dozens of teams like that.

That’s where the silly talk begins. But getting into the tournament — even winning a game or two — is a different task compared with winning six games and standing on the last dais in San Antonio this year. Three 11-seeds have reached the Final Four, and a No. 8 Villanova team won the whole thing in 1985, the lowest seed of all time to secure a crown. But that’s rare. Since the inception of the NCAA tournament in 1939, UCLA, Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke, Indiana, Connecticut, Kansas and Louisville have claimed a combined 45 national titles. The other 343 Division I programs? Just 34.

The NCAA tournament belongs to the blue bloods.

So, let’s get real about who has a serious shot at the crown this season.

Legitimate national title contenders

Villanova Wildcats On the road against a Xavier team projected by the selection committee to snag a 1-seed, Villanova connected on 11 of 19 3-pointers in the first half, most of them contested. But when the nation’s most efficient offense grew cold Saturday, the Wildcats still made the hustle plays — Eric Paschall‘s late steal, Mikal Bridges‘ jump shots, Collin Gillespie‘s fearless drives — to win, despite the absence of injured standout Phil Booth. When the Wildcats play their best basketball, no team in America can touch them.

Virginia Cavaliers Doesn’t matter if you think Virginia basketball is sexy or if you doubt the postseason effectiveness of the Cavs’ efficient brand of basketball. Tony Bennett’s program has held eight top-50 opponents on KenPom.com under 60 points this season. A Virginia team that has manufactured one of the greatest defensive efforts in modern college basketball history could win the school’s first national title.

Kansas Jayhawks Remember when Kansas was set to end its streak of conference titles and miss history? Me either. No, this is not an invincible force in Lawrence, but Bill Self’s four-guard lineup — with Devonte’ Graham and Svi Mykhailiuk connecting on more than 41 percent of their 3-point attempts and Udoka Azubuike leading the nation with a 77 percent clip inside the arc — is a nightmare matchup for the field.

Duke Blue Devils Stop with the nonsense. Duke needs a healthy Marvin Bagley III, who has missed three consecutive games, to fulfill its potential in the NCAA tournament. But its adjustments and three-game win streak without the lottery pick have showcased the talent behind him. Remember, this is the same Duke squad that beat Michigan State in the Champions Classic with Bagley on the court for just 10 minutes. Also, the last time a Duke team made a late-season switch to zone, Jahlil Okafor & Co. ended the year with a national title.

Michigan State Spartans That Northwestern come-from-behind win produced the best and worst of a Michigan State team that sometimes needs to be reminded it’s in a meaningful game. But these Spartans punk opponents on the offensive glass, play elite, top-10 defense, shoot the 3-ball better than any team in America, boast the services of a Wooden Award contender named Miles Bridges and use Jaren Jackson Jr., the field’s most imposing threat as a 6-foot-11 lottery pick who has made 47 percent of his 3-pointers in league play.

Purdue Boilermakers The Boilermakers have connected on just 25 of 76 attempts from beyond the arc in their past four games, a tepid 1-3 stretch for a team that once won 19 consecutive games. They’ve been off in recent weeks, and now Vincent Edwards could miss the rest of the regular season with an ankle injury. But Matt Painter has a pair of 7-footers who stuff the paint and a collection of shooters who’ve made nearly 42 percent of their 3-point attempts, a wonderful formula for a title run.

North Carolina Tar Heels Yes, the Tar Heels lost one of the top frontcourts in college basketball, a unit that anchored last season’s run to the third national title in the Roy Williams era. But they’re still securing nearly 40 percent of their missed shots. Luke Maye is an All-American. Cam Johnson, who has compiled seven consecutive double-digit performances, looks healthy and comfortable. And Joel Berry II has 18 assists and six turnovers during his team’s five-game win streak. Seems like the Tar Heels have shifted into championship mode this month.

Gonzaga Bulldogs Mark Few’s best teams have created matchup problems with their bigs. Przemek Karnowski was a 7-footer who could pass out of the post and neutralize double-teams, and Kelly Olynyk could spread the floor with his midrange game. With Johnathan Williams, Few has an agile, veteran big man who can defend multiple positions and Killian Tillie, a 6-10 forward from France, who has made 45 percent of his 3-point attempts in conference play. Rui Hachimura is a 6-8 mystery with an explosive style. Don’t sleep on this Gonzaga squad.

Arizona Wildcats Yeah, I have questions, too. The Deandre Ayton and Dusan Ristic lineups might not work against the small-ball threats Arizona must push away to reach Sean Miller’s first Final Four and win the program’s first national title since 1997. A run will also demand a consistent effort from Rawle Alkins, not a guarantee since his return from a foot injury, and a thorough defensive effort. But, Miller has Ayton, the most dominant talent in America. With Allonzo Trier and a fleet of good athletes around him, Ayton could go 2011-12 Anthony Davis on the field and carry these Wildcats to the crown, too.

Texas Tech Red Raiders Please read the following disclaimer: All of this going forward depends on the status of Keenan Evans (18.2 PPG, 84 percent from the free throw line), who missed a chunk of Saturday’s loss to Baylor with a toe injury. If he’s not 100 percent, throw all of this in the trash. But Chris Beard has America’s toughest team, a squad ranked third in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom.com. This is the Big 12’s Virginia, and if Evans is healthy, the Red Raiders can run through the field and win a championship in nearby San Antonio.

Wichita State Shockers On the road against a team slotted as the fifth seed overall in the selection committee’s official projected seed announcement, Wichita State put together its most impactful performance of the season. The Shockers also showcased their depth against a strong Cincinnati squad that had won 39 consecutive home games. Eight players scored five or more points in the win. And Landry Shamet (19 points, 3-for-6 from the 3-point line) looked like a first-round pick. The defense is a concern, but the Shockers are capable of competing with the best teams in America.

Xavier Musketeers Chris Mack doesn’t want to see Villanova again this season. His Musketeers played great perimeter defense against the Wildcats on Saturday, but Jay Wright’s program still made 16 3-pointers, a record for a Xavier opponent. But they’ve scored 90 or more points in 10 games this season. And they’ve made 54.5 percent of their shots inside the arc. Trevon Bluiett is capable of 30-plus against any opponent. No, Xavier won’t lock teams up come March, but few teams will beat the Musketeers in a shootout.

You’re probably wondering about …

Kentucky Wildcats The Wildcats have the length and athleticism of past units, but they’ve failed to wade through the adverse situations the NCAA tournament will present. So you can’t bet on this group, which has the Kentucky name but not the fervor of past crews.

Auburn Tigers An undersized Auburn team with a strength of schedule in the 60s just lost 6-7 forward Anfernee McLemore (7.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.7 BPG, 39 percent from the 3-point line) for the year to a gruesome leg injury suffered in Saturday’s loss to South Carolina. Plus, Bryce Brown has dealt with multiple injuries in recent weeks. Fair to question whether Bruce Pearl’s team has the size and now depth to make a run.

West Virginia Mountaineers The Bob Huggins brand works well when the Mountaineers force turnovers and convert those opportunities into offense. But they’re 8-6 in league play because they’ve struggled to do that in the Big 12. They’re not the same force without swarming opponents.

Tennessee Volunteers A team that registered 0.93 points per possession at Georgia on Saturday and made just 37 percent of its 2-pointers showcased the inconsistent offense that could end its postseason dreams early in the NCAA tournament.

Oklahoma Sooners It’s easy to criticize Trae Young‘s recent stumbles. But opponents know that creating defensive schemes to stop him dramatically increases the chances of a win over a team ranked 95th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Cincinnati Bearcats The Wichita State loss exposed Cincinnati’s lack of offensive creators.

Texas A&M Aggies Too many times this season, Tyler Davis has been the only player on the roster fighting for a win. Hard to expect much from a group that couldn’t top 60 points against Missouri and surrendered 94 points to Arkansas on Saturday.

Ohio State Buckeyes The Buckeyes just crumbled in a lopsided loss to Penn State. But before that, they had lost the bulk of their challenges against the elite teams they’ll have to defeat in the tournament to win a national tile.

[gossipnetwork-blog]

We Ranked the Top 20 RuPaul's Drag Race Queens: See Who Sashayed Their Way to No. 1!

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We Ranked the Top 20 RuPaul's Drag Race Queens: See Who Sashayed Their Way to No. 1!

Nine seasons. Three All-Stars off-shoots. 113 queens. That’s a whole lot of charisma, uniqueness, nerve and talent, mama.

But not all RuPaul’s Drag Race queens are created equal. 

With All-Stars 3 currently airing on new network home VH1 and the franchise’s landmark season 10 just around the corner, we thought the timing was right to open the library and read these queens to filth to determine which of Mama Ru’s girls deserved to be in our Top 20. Why? Because reading is fundamental. (And also, because any opportunity we get to talk about Drag Race as “work,” we’ll take it.) 

Which queens made the cut and which had to sashay away? It wasn’t easy narrowing this down. The sheer magnitude of talent among the amazing drag queens that RuPaul has introduced the world to is truly a force to be reckoned with. This show hasn’t spawned an industry unto itself, complete with a yearly weekend-long fan convention, for no reason. And as you take a look at our list, you’ll notice that simply winning a season wasn’t enough for some queens to make the cut. 

As the show has evolved and grown, so too has the talent, making it harder and harder for those early queens to edge their way in. Not that they’re not trailblazing and legendary in their own right. It’s just that, when you’re whittling the list down to 20, you’ve got to make some cuts somewhere.

So without any further ado, it’s time to put your reading glasses on and find out which of Mama Ru’s girls made our Top 20—and which one came out on top. 

VH1

20. Peppermint (Season 9)

Season 9 runner-up Peppermint (real name Agnes Moore) more than lived up to her nick name “Lip Sync Assassin,” honey. She did knock three of her sisters out of the competition in sudden death lip syncs, after all. Thanks to her unwavering positivity, the warmth she brought to the competition, and her place in Drag Race history as the first already out trans woman to fight for the crown, she was the season’s true Miss Congeniality. (Sorry, not sorry, Valentina fans.)

VH1

19. Adore Delano (Season 6 & All-Stars 2)

It’s no secret that season six runner-up Adore Delano (real name Danny Noriega) struggled with her “hog body” on many a runway, but she still proved to be one of the show’s more memorable queens, nearly snatching the crown in what’s unofficially considered the best season of Drag Race ever. Between her sisterly bond with Bianca Del Rio, her delightful sense of humor, and her vocal talent (Noriega competed on season seven of American Idol out of drag), she more than earned her spot in the Top 20. It would’ve been higher, too, if she hadn’t quit All-Stars 2 in the very first episode.

VH1

18. Violet Chachki (Season 7)

There’s no denying that season seven is one of the weaker recent seasons of Drag Race and its winner, Violet Chachki (real name Jason Dardo), proves that. Though she basically snatched the crown in the season’s very first episode with her sickening dual runway outfit reveal, the fashion plate never really proved she was much more than that. If that rumored all-winners season of All-Stars ever comes to fruition, she’d have her work cut out for her.

VH1

17. BenDeLaCreme (Season 6 & All-Stars 3)

Thanks to her unrelenting effervescence and unforgettable performance as Dame Maggie Smith in Snatch Game, BenDeLaCreme (real name Benjamin Putman) had the title of season six’s Miss Congeniality on lock. But she was often too in her own head and proved to be a touch too similar to drag sister (and season five winner) Jinkx Monsoon to really pop. However, the fact that she’s slayed every competition in the currently-airing All-Stars 3 thus far proves that she shouldn’t be counted out just yet.

VH1

16. Raja (Season 3)

One of the few pre-season four queens to earn a spot in our Top 20, season three winner Raja (real name Sutan Amrull) and her editorial eye for fashion could not be ignored. She helped drive home the idea that drag could be something more than just female impersonation. With Raja, more often than not, it was damn art.

VH1

15. Jinkx Monsoon (Season 5)

Water off a duck’s back, right Jinkx Monsoon? Season five’s narcoleptic (yes, really) winner (real name Jerick Hoffer) managed to overcome the powerful and, at times, cruel Team RoLaskTox to snatch the crown and prove that comedy queens can win this competition. And her Snatch Game performance as Grey Gardens‘ Little Edie is one of the series’ best.

VH1

14. Trixie Mattel (Season 7 & All-Stars 3)

OK, hear us out on this one. Trixie Mattel (real name Brian Firkus) and her nightmarish approximation of a Barbie doll may have left everyone slightly confused during her first season, but in hindsight, we all let that overshadow her fierce wit and intellect. As she rose to fame as one half of the hosting duo for Drag Race production company World of Wonder’s web series UNHhhh, she proved that she’s just flat-out hilarious and her performance thus far on All-Stars 3 has only bolstered her place in the upper echelon of Drag Race queens.

VH1

13. Shangela (Seasons 2, 3 & All-Stars 3)

Halleloo! You didn’t think we’d look over Shangela Laquifa Wadley (real name D.J. Pierce), now did you? The only queen to compete in not one, not two, but three seasons of Drag Race (including the currently airing All-Stars 3), Shangela is undeniably one of the series’ unforgettable legends. Her arrival in season three—jumping out of a giant gift-wrapped box—and the looks on all the other queens’ faces as it happened is a must-see.

VH1

12. Courtney Act (Season 6)

One third of season six’s holy triumvirate (along with Adore Delano and Bianca Del Rio), Courtney Act (real name Shane Jenek) is one of the fishiest queens to ever compete on Drag Race. (For the uninitiated, “fish” is a drag term reserved for those who truly look like biological women. It’s a good thing.) She sometimes stood in the shadows of Adore and Bianca, but Courtney and her singing voice (Jerek competed on the first season of Australian Idol—in drag) are a star in their own right. And hearing her say her name in her Australian accent lets you know that there’s some sly wit hiding underneath all that fishiness.

VH1

11. Shea Couleé (Season 9)

Shea Couleé (real name Jaren Merrell) may have stumbled in the season nine finale, failing to deliver any of the theatrics that her sisters Peppermint and Sasha Velour did, but there’s no denying that she slayed her season. With four challenge wins and an unforgettable performance as Blac Chyna in “Kardashian: The Musical,” it seemed like the season was hers to lose. Ultimately, she did, ensuring she’d never crack the Top 10.

VH1

10. Sasha Velour (Season 9)

Why is season nine winner Sasha Velour (real name Sasha Steinberg) in the Top 10, you ask? We direct you to her not one, but two STUNNING Whitney Houston lip syncs in the season finale. Enough said. We’ll never listen to “So Emotional” or look at rose petals the same way again.

VH1

9. Latrice Royale (Season 4 & All-Stars)

As season four’s Miss Congeniality, plus-size queen Latrice Royale (real name Timothy Wilcots) entered into the competition with over two decades of drag experience under her belt—and it showed. If a bit staid in her artistic ambition, Latrice was never not entertaining, especially when she was taking us to church with her reminder that “Jesus is a biscuit” and to “let him sop you up.” And just try not to laugh while watching her performance during the “Queens Behind Bars” challenge. Say it with us now: “Get those nuts away from my face!”

VH1

8. Detox (Season 5 & All-Stars 2)

Has any queen in Drag Race history ever served up more stunning looks than season five’s Detox (real name Matthew Sanderson)? Her head-to-toe greyscale make-up at her season’s finale, where she upstaged the final three by a long shot, is EVERYTHING. And her performance in All-Stars 2, aside from the unnecessary reemergence of RoLaskaTox, proved even more that she’s a fierce queen.

VH1

7. Bob the Drag Queen (Season 8)

Thorgy Thor may have loved to complain that season eight was “The Bob Show,” but that’s because Bob the Drag Queen (real name Christopher Caldwell) completely outpaced everyone competing against her. Bob was the whole package and her series-first decision to play not one, but two different celebrities in Snatch Game (Carol Channing and Uzo Aduba) all but solidified her win. 

VH1

6. Chad Michaels (Season 4 & All-Stars)

Chad Michaels is a freaking legend and if Sharon Needles hadn’t competed against her in season four, she’d have walked away with the crown easily. Hell, the All-Stars format was essentially invented so that RuPaul could give the expert Cher impersonator a crown of her own. If that’s not Top 10 material, we don’t know what is.

VH1

5. Alyssa Edwards (Season 5 & All-Stars 2)

Alyssa Edwards (real name Justin Johnson) has competed for the crown twice now, and twice she’s come up short. But that hasn’t stopped her from becoming one of the franchise’s most memorable queens. Her rivalry with Coco Montrese lead to some of season five’s juiciest drama and most hilarious one-liners courtesy of the tongue-popping queen. “Girl, look how orange you f–king look, girl,” ranks up there as one of her best. But who can forget her priceless reaction to Jade Jolie‘s insinuation that she’s carrying some back fat? Say it with us now: “Back rolls?!”

VH1

4. Katya (Season 7 & All-Stars 2)

In a perfect world, Katya (real name Brian McCook) would’ve been handed the crown she so clearly deserved in season seven. There are few queens in Drag Race history who’ve displayed as much innovation, wit and talent as Katya. (Like, only the three above her on this list, TBH.) She routinely stole the show during her time on All-Stars 2 and though she didn’t win, her rap during the legendary performance of “Read U Wrote U” will stand the test of time as one of Drag Race‘s best performances. 

VH1

3. Sharon Needles (Season 4)

When Sharon Needles (real name Aaron Coady) arrived on the scene in season four, her “genderf–k” horror-show style of drag completely changed the idea of what was possible and permissible on Drag Race. Though she routinely faced attacks from season villain Phi Phi O’Hara, who told her to go back to Party City “where you belong,” she got the last laugh, thanks to her genuine warmth, wit and artistry. She helped to revolutionize the show, though her performance in the final “Glamazon” music video challenge proved she was also capable of melding her unique vision with Mama Ru’s eleganza approach to drag, elevating her to the crown and her spot on this list.

VH1

2. Alaska (Season 5 & All-Stars 2)

Hieee! In season five, Alaska (real name Justin Honard) proved just how perfect she was for this competition. There was her hilarious fragrance commercial parody for “Red For Filth…” Her wig-snatching performance in the “Reading is Fundamental” challenge. Her creation of Lil Pound Cake. She lost the crown to Jinkx Monsoon, but then she returned for All-Stars 2, newly sober and ready to win. And boy did she. Between her unbelievable Mae West in Snatch Game and her second stand-out commercial parody, she more than proved why she’s one of the all-time greats. Sure, her elimination choices deserve all the side-eye in the world, but none of them take away from her killer performance and her place in the Drag Race Hall of Fame.

VH1

1. Bianca Del Rio (Season 6)

Did you expect anyone else? In the history of Drag Race, there’s no one who even comes close to season six winner Bianca Del Rio (real name Roy Haylock). She is, without a doubt, one of the funniest queens to ever vie for the title of America’s Next Drag Superstar, but underneath all that sarcasm and sass, there lies a heart of gold. Not threatened, she took Adore Delano under her wing, mentoring her throughout their season, all the while slaying competition after competition. Her Snatch Game performance as Judge Judy was one of her riskiest moves that paid dividends (Judge Judy is one of RuPaul‘s biggest idols), her rapping in the “Oh No She Betta Don’t” team challenge had us crying tears of laughter, and her work in the final “Sissy That Walk” music video proved this comedy diva is one hell of an eleganza queen as well. If that all-winners season of All-Stars ever does happen, there’s no doubt that she’s the one to beat.

RuPaul’s Drag Race All-Stars 3 airs Thursdays at 8 p.m. on VH1.

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[junker-town]

Brandon Clarke is the NBA draft steal we all should’ve seen coming

Brandon Clarke is already a productive and impactful player for the Grizzlies.

The Grizzlies rookie is thriving in the NBA in the same way he thrived in college basketball.

All Brandon Clarke did at Gonzaga was turn in one of the strongest single-season performances in college basketball’s modern history. After sitting out a year following his transfer from San Jose State, Clarke posted impossibly efficient numbers on both ends of the floor, with sparkling 69.9 percent true shooting and remarkable defensive playmaking rates. His impact was crystallized in every all-in-one stat you could find: he had the second highest box score plus-minus since 2009-2010 (behind Zion Williamson), and the second best PER (behind ... Zion Williamson).

Yet when Clarke entered the NBA draft, scouts saw a forward who lacked positional size, didn’t have a reliable jump shot, and would turn 23 years old as a rookie. His 6’8 wingspan was proportional to his height. His 207-pound frame meant many opponents in the paint would outweigh him by 50 pounds. He made just 6-of-24 shots from three-point range in 98 career college games.

Clarke didn’t have the length or heft to play center. He didn’t have the shooting to be a stretch four. He was a rookie who was about the same age as Devin Booker after four NBA seasons. His numbers said he should have been a top-five pick. Everything else pointed to the type of player that gets taken in the second round or even goes undrafted.

The NBA made the choice to sleep on Clarke, and the Grizzlies took advantage. Memphis gave up a future second round pick to move up two spots in the draft to take Clarke at No. 21 overall.

Look at him now.

To the surprise of very few paying attention, Clarke currently looks like the steal of the draft. He has been effective in the league in all the ways he dominated college, while continuing to add new parts to his game. All of the consternation about his positional fit in the league was misguided for one simple reason: this is a young player who is just incredibly good at basketball. He was always going to find a way to make it work.

Memphis has the the likely Rookie of the Year in Ja Morant, but Clarke is nearly as important to the Grizzlies’ future. This is what’s made him such a rookie success.

Clarke is an incredibly efficient offensive player

Scouts viewed Clarke as a great defensive prospect whose offense could struggle to translate to the next level. Those concerns were completely overblown.

Right now, Clarke is leading the NBA in true shooting percentage at 70.1 percent. No, not rookies. He’s the most efficient scorer in the entire league, posting a number is almost identical (slightly better, even) than what he did in college. The touch that made him so fantastic at Gonzaga is only getting better. Clarke is the 99th percentile on floaters and runners in the entire NBA, per Synergy Sports. He’s in the 92nd percentile on non-post-up finishes around the rim. He entered the week shooting at least 50 percent from literally every distance on the floor, per basketball-reference. Yes, that means three-point shooting, too.

Welcome back BC!@brandonclarke23 | #GrindCity pic.twitter.com/eRTIyS5tWo

— FOX Sports Grizzlies (@GrizzliesOnFSSE) December 12, 2019

Entering the week, Clarke had already doubled the number of three-pointers he hit in college only 21 games into his career. He was 13-of-26 from three-point range heading into Wednesday night. The hard work he’s put in to totally remodel his jump shot since his San Jose State days has paid off. If Clarke has made this much progress on his jumper just over the last year, where could it be a few seasons from now?

Per-36 minutes, Clarke is averaging 22.1 points per game on 14.6 field goal attempts. He might lack the volume to be a go-to scorer, but he’s perfect in his role. If Clarke is shooting the ball, it’s probably going in.

Clarke’s two-way impact is fully translating to the NBA

Clarke is on a very short list of the best pure athletes in the NBA. Beyond that, Clarke’s athleticism is functional in the way he’s able to quickly load up to sky in the air for blocks, rebounds, and put-backs. Ty Jerome never stood a chance on this fastbreak:

Brandon Clarke channeled his inner Bron on this block pic.twitter.com/tBypwHeIad

— Canadians in the NBA (@NBACanadians) December 12, 2019

Clarke’s superior athleticism and rare feel for the game made him an advanced stats all-star at Gonzaga. It’s happening again for the Grizzlies.

Clarke leads all rookies in win shares. He’s leading all rookies who have played at least 300 minute in BPM, VORP, and PER, per basketball-reference. He’s third among rookies in FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR stat. Yes, there are some issues with PER, it also speaks volumes that he’s No. 14 in the entire league in the metric right now.

Clarke has done a great job of blocking shots without fouling. He’s averaging 10 rebounds per-36 minutes. He’s also deterring shots that never get taken because of his positioning and the threat of his athleticism. Clarke’s impact is no mirage.

The Grizzlies young core looks great

The morning after the 2019 NBA Draft, we anointed the Grizzlies as the internet’s new favorite team. That praise might not be high enough: out of any rebuilding team currently at the bottom of the league, Memphis has the NBA’s best young core going forward (or at least right there with Williamson and the Pelicans).

Morant is already proving to be a star in his rookie season, scoring efficiently while carrying a huge usage burden and providing dazzling highlights every night. Jaren Jackson Jr. had a disappointing November but has been better in December, including a 43-point outburst (with nine three-pointers) against the Milwaukee Bucks. De’Anthony Melton has also given the Grizz some good minutes recently when he’s had the opportunity. Then there’s Clarke, who is thriving in the exact same way he thrived in college.

This clip of the 6’11 Jackson initiating the offense and hitting Clarke for an open three should make the imagination of Memphis fans run wild:

no it's not a replay...@jarenjacksonjr & @brandonclarke23 connect again. #GrzNxtGen pic.twitter.com/OiowbEHjdn

— Memphis Grizzlies (@memgrizz) December 12, 2019

Clarke never should have fallen to No. 21 in the draft, but the Grizzlies sure are happy that he did. The rest of the NBA’s loss is Memphis’ gain.

[junker-town]

The Warriors can still be unstoppable

We have that and more in Monday’s NBA newsletter.

One of the biggest revelations of the 2018 NBA playoffs has been that the Warriors aren’t necessarily unstoppable. The Rockets darn near stopped them cold in the West finals, and the Cavaliers almost peeled off Game 1 of the NBA Finals in Oakland.

The Warriors aren’t unstoppable in the wide sense of the word, which is to say they are no longer inevitable. But the Warriors can still be unstoppable at times, as they were on Sunday in a rollicking Game 2 win over the Cavaliers to go up 2-0 in the Finals.

No team ever created was beating the Warriors last night.

Cleveland defended reasonably well most of the night, outside of the opening minutes where the Warriors took advantage of the Cavs’ switching action to slip to the rim. But on a lot of action involving either Stephen Curry frolicking on the perimeter or Kevin Durant setting up in the mid-range, there’s just nothing anyone can do.

The Warriors aren’t the only team with this feature, but they are the team that can most reliably call on it and sustain it for the longest. Heck, they could carry it right into Game 3 on Wednesday in Cleveland.

Perhaps that’s a consolation for LeBron James and the Cavaliers. It’s not just that there’s nothing they can do when the Warriors are cooking like that. There’s nothing anyone, ever could do.

Mmmmmmockin’

Rick O’Donnell put together a consensus mock draft, which further shows that Luka Doncic -- the best European prospect ever, no exaggeration -- could slip out of the top three.

It brings to light something interesting about Doncic and the other high-upside prospects in the top five chatter. Wonder Boy doesn’t have the athletic markers that the Americans do. He has something that college partisans usually give to successful, multi-year D-I players: an unimpeachable record of team success.

You would think that plus his young age and obvious high basketball IQ and skill would keep him atop everyone’s board. Perhaps that speaks to just how much promise Deandre Ayton, Marvin Bagley, and Jaren Jackson have.

Links Galore

Uh, the reigning WNBA champ Minnesota Lynx have now lost four straight for the first time since drafting Maya Moore. They are 2-5 on the season. Only the winless Fever and young Aces are worse. This is ... abnormal.

Paul Flannery on LeBron being good enough to steal the Finals if there’s an opening.

Wonderful Kevin Arnovitz piece on the NBA’s referee operations, and the infamous block/charge call in Game 1.

Just incredible footage of the Cavaliers’ bench after the end of regulation in Game 1. When LeBron finds out they had a timeout left, he gets mad all over again.

Ranking Steph’s Finals-record nine threes.

An oral history of Kevin Durant’s Warriors meeting in The Hamptons, from Tim Kawakami.

The Warriors are simply more fun when Stephen Curry is leading the offense. Curry might be well on his way to his first Finals MVP.

Klay Thompson is one tough dude.

Only a dozen or so NBA players have signature shoes ... but just about everyone in the league wears them.

Breaking down the Curry peek-a-boo play.

This little dust-up between Curry and Kendrick Perkins (!) was funny. The Warriors are mad because Perkins didn’t ... move his legs out of the way as Curry fell backwards into him on a wild shot attempt? Like, with all of the advantages they have, the Warriors want Perk to trust fall with Steph Curry too?

If you were wondering whether Warriors fans would be extremely petty to J.R. Smith, well of course they were.

The shorts-suit contagion is spreading.

Fascinating Kevin Pelton dive into the all-important question about whether LeBron makes his teammates better.

LeBron’s left eye is getting redder every moment, he’s basically turning into Cyborg.

The Suns’ future is about more than who they take No. 1.

The NBA might introduce a challenge flag at Summer League.

And finally: Foul Play: Paid in Mississippi is a triumph in storytelling and production. Watch it and read the long piece by Steven Godfrey on the underbelly of NCAA enforcement of college recruiting violations. This work, together, is a masterpiece.

Be excellent to each other.

[jodyedgarus]

The Good, The Bad And The WTF Of NBA Free Agency

There have been a handful of seismic shifts since NBA free agency began earlier this month — LeBron James heading west to join the Lakers, DeMarcus Cousins signing with Golden State and Spurs superstar Kawhi Leonard being shipped to Canada for DeMar DeRozan — but the dust is finally beginning to settle some, allowing us to make sense of what has happened.

Two things have become relatively clear: 1) This was a lean, challenging year for players who might have otherwise taken long-term deals, as around half of the pacts this summer have been for a single season; 2) With Cousins in tow, the Warriors may be in a league of their own again when it comes to contending for the title.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t give a brief rundown of the teams that have wowed, disappointed or befuddled us this offseason. Here’s our look at the good, the bad and the confusing from the past month.

Winners

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers were arguably the league’s biggest surprise last season, going from what many analysts figured would be a lottery team after the Paul George trade with Oklahoma City to one win away from knocking out LeBron and the Cavaliers in the first round. An enormous part of that, of course, was Victor Oladipo having a better statistical campaign than George en route to becoming an All-Star and winning the Most Improved Player award.

The other element flew under the radar but was just as integral: Indiana’s offense, gladly taking what the defense gave it, went against the grain and launched far more midrange jump shots than any other club, essentially making the Pacers the antithesis of the Rockets. With a group of decent jump-shooters, the strategy worked. But as a team that doesn’t shoot a ton of threes or get to the line much (Indiana had the NBA’s fifth-lowest 3-point attempt rate and the fifth-worst free-throw rate), the Pacers could have entered the 2018-19 season somewhat vulnerable to opponents who can score in bunches more quickly and efficiently.

But inking perpetual-motion sharpshooter Doug McDermott should make Indiana less predictable and more of a threat from outside. And Tyreke Evans — who has quietly shot nearly 39 percent from the arc over the past three years after shooting about 28 percent in his first six seasons — was a solid, under-the-radar pickup who should be a huge upgrade over Lance Stephenson.

Kyle O’Quinn, who came over for the room exception at one year and $4.5 million, will fit right in with the Pacers’ offensive philosophy; he hit better than 44 percent of his long 2s last season. He can get himself in trouble as a playmaker, but he’ll be a more-than-adequate backup to Myles Turner or Domantas Sabonis.

Almost no analyst will pick the Pacers to land a top-three seed in the East. But should the Celtics, Raptors or Sixers struggle out of the gate, it wouldn’t be that surprising if Indiana did just that. The Pacers finished just outside the top 10 last season in both offensive and defensive efficiency — a hint that they weren’t far from contention. If things break right for them this year, they could reach that level with their improved roster.

Memphis Grizzlies

Just when we thought we had left the Grit-n-Grind era behind us, it found its way back into our hearts and, soon enough, onto the court at FedEx Forum.

The Grizzlies battled through a miserable year that included the firing of coach David Fizdale after he and center Marc Gasol failed to see eye-to-eye, and that was after losing point guard Mike Conley to a heel injury that eventually led to season-ending surgery. From the outside, a total teardown might have seemed like the best course of action. But for a small-market franchise — which has big-money deals on the books and is already dealing with attendance problems — that avenue might have been too dire, leading the club to reload instead.

Memphis did so by trying to get back to what made it special a few years ago: It loaded up on solid players who aren’t the most glitzy but tend to get the job done on both ends of the floor.

While they started that process at the draft with forward Jaren Jackson Jr. — a player whom FiveThirtyEight’s projection models like a great deal — the Grizzlies also landed advanced-stats darling Kyle Anderson, who ranked second among small forwards in Defensive Real Plus-Minus this past season. With his ball-handling ability and size, Anderson is a lower-scoring, better-defending version of the Grizzlies’ Chandler Parsons, who has been sapped by injuries in recent years. Memphis also picked up wing Garrett Temple, a reliable defender and 39-percent 3-point shooter this past year, from Sacramento via trade.

It’s not often that a 22-win team jumps into the playoff conversation without adding a bona fide star. But merely getting healthy again after adding this many capable two-way players could let the Grizzlies improve by leaps and bounds.

Losers

Portland Trail Blazers

Similar to how the Raptors needed a shakeup after multiple seasons fizzled out in a similar manner, the Blazers seemingly needed one in 2017-18, too. Even after realizing they couldn’t go about things the exact same way and altering a handful of schematic details, those fixes weren’t nearly enough, and the club got swept in the first round by Anthony Davis and the Pelicans.

But the beatdown didn’t bring about big changes for the West’s No. 3 seed. Instead, the Blazers brought back restricted free agent center Jusuf Nurkic (who’s highly productive when he’s not getting whacked in the face) while losing solid bench contributors in guard Shabazz Napier and reserve big Ed Davis.1

If there’s a sour taste in the mouths of Blazers fans, though, it should stem from the notion that Portland could have — and possibly would have — completed a sign-and-trade for Cousins had it not been that he and Nurkic have representatives who work for the same agency, potentially creating a conflict. Such a deal would have provided the sort of shakeup that a capped-out team like Portland needs. Instead, we may see this team — one of the few that enjoyed good health last year — finish near the bottom of the playoff pool in the West.

Houston Rockets

Any way you slice it, it’s tough to make sense of the Rockets’ offseason. This team was one decent half away from knocking off the vaunted Warriors and reaching the NBA Finals when its players short-circuited and couldn’t make a 3-pointer to save their lives.

The Rockets were close enough that you could almost understand bringing back the same team to try again. But instead, Houston lost starting forward Trevor Ariza right out of the gate (granted, for big money at $15 million this season with a young Phoenix team).Then Luc Mbah a Moute followed suit, rejoining the Clippers about a week later for just one year and $4.3 million. Both were enormous contributors to the Rockets’ vast defensive improvement, and they played key roles in the team’s switch-everything scheme, a must-have against a club like Golden State, which screens away from the ball so well.

Houston’s interest in Carmelo Anthony wasn’t terribly surprising, after it pursued him the year before. Yet while there’s a chance Anthony plays far better with the Rockets than he did in a down year with Oklahoma City, it’s hard to see him being much better than either of the two aforementioned wing players, given how Anthony is frequently exploited on defense.

James Ennis may help in replacing the lost production on D, and getting guard De’Anthony Melton in the second round of the draft was seemingly a steal. Still, with the gap between the Rockets and Warriors as small as it was in the postseason, you get the feeling that these moves might have widened the chasm.

Somewhere in between

Chicago Bulls

Even if you don’t think Zach LaVine is worth the four years and $78 million that the Bulls ponied up to keep him from becoming a Sacramento King, the logic is clear: LaVine, at one point, was the centerpiece of what Chicago got in the Jimmy Butler deal last summer.

What’s tougher to understand is the logic behind pairing LaVine with free agent Jabari Parker.

Yes, this ACL-hobbled duo has clear scoring chops, and both are just 23. But neither can really defend on the wing just yet, potentially making life far more challenging for impressive youngster Wendell Carter Jr. than it should be this early on.

“Well, I don’t know — I just stick to my strengths,” Parker said when asked about defense during a Chicago radio interview. “Look at everybody in the league. They don’t pay players to play defense. … I’m not gonna say I won’t, but to say that’s a weakness is like saying that’s everybody’s weakness. I’ve scored 30s and 20s off of guys who say they try to play defense.”

The Parker deal, for two years and $40 million, isn’t awful. The second year of the contract is a team option, giving the Bulls an out if he doesn’t return to form. But the biggest challenge, and one that gives analysts around the league pause, is his defense. Statistically, Parker has surrendered2 more blow-by opportunities on D than any other NBA player over the past three seasons, according to data from Second Spectrum. Some of that, of course, stems from the head-scratching scheme the Bucks used for so long. But other times, it was a function of Parker playing out of position at small forward, where he’s not quick enough to stay in front.

It’s safe to assume that someone — be it Parker, the guy he’s guarding or both — is going to score a lot next season. We look forward to seeing who gets the upper hand.

Los Angeles Lakers

No one is knocking the LeBron signing itself. (How could you?) But add me to the list of people who have struggled to understand the free-agent signings around him.

Regardless of whether you plan to have James control the ball a ton or you prefer that he operates more from the post, he would benefit most by having a stable of capable jump-shooters to give him the time and space he needs to create scoring chances.

For the better part of eight years, James’s rosters have generally featured several shooting specialists who afford him ample room to drive and kick. A number of players — James Jones, Mike Miller, Shane Battier, Ray Allen, Mario Chalmers, Matthew Dellavedova, JR Smith, Kyle Korver, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, just to name a few — have logged seasons in which they shot 40 percent or better3 from deep when playing alongside James. By contrast, no one on this Lakers roster — outside of James — has ever logged even one season of 40 percent or better.4

This might be an arbitrary threshold. Aside from the fact that many players on this club are in the early stages of their career, Brandon Ingram shot 39.0 percent from there last year, and Josh Hart was at 39.6 percent. And it seems a given that the team’s best young players stand to take massive steps forward by playing with a great setup man who demands so much of the opponent’s attention.

The bigger question, in light of comments he made during the NBA Finals, is whether this team will possess the sort of collective basketball IQ that James feels he needs around him. We know Rajon Rondo, however combustible he might be, is set in that regard. But the additions of Stephenson and JaVale McGee were tougher to square from that standpoint.

At their best, with the right surroundings, Stephenson and McGee can lead the NBA in triple-doubles and wreak havoc in pick-and-roll scenarios, respectively. At their worst, they create blooper reels. We have no idea which versions will emerge. But rest assured: LeBron and the youthful Lakers will be anything but boring as we tune in to find out.

from News About Sports https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-good-the-bad-and-the-wtf-of-nba-free-agency/

[junker-town]

Utah State is Mountain West football’s biggest wildcard

Either the slide stops in 2017 or the Aggies consider a coaching change.

This preview originally published April 10 and has since been updated.

Matt Wells inherited an impossible task four years ago. When a mid-major loses the head coach responsible for a peak, it regresses back toward its self-defined mean.

That’s how things have worked since before “mid-major football” was even a term. It’s been part of the circle of life for decades, from Bob Devaney (left Wyoming for Nebraska) and Don James (left Kent State for Washington) to the present.

On rare occasions, they stay — Fisher DeBerry at Air Force, Lavell Edwards at BYU, Larry Blakeney at Troy. But it surprised no one when Gary Andersen, architect of the best Utah State team ever, left for Wisconsin.

Andersen’s 2012 Utah State Aggies went 11-2 and ranked 12th in S&P+. The Aggies lost at Wisconsin and BYU by a combined five, beat Utah, and knocked off four strong mid-majors (SJSU, UTSA, Louisiana Tech, and Toledo, which won a combined 37 games) by a combined 86. Andersen left some exciting pieces for Wells, but there was no way Wells was going to maintain that.

The slide has been steady. The Aggies went 19-9 in Wells’ first two seasons but slipped first to 32nd, then 57th in S&P+. The offense has been mediocre, but the defense has slipped from elite to mortal. And while USU held steady at 62nd in 2015 and 70th in 2016, the wins have vanished. The Aggies are still keeping games close, but now they’re losing those games; they’ve dropped seven of their last eight one-possession finishes, and after winning 10 games in 2014, they won a combined nine in 2015-16.

Wells was the most sensible hire USU could have made; a former Aggie quarterback, he had unique experience (a few years with Steve Kragthorpe at Tulsa and Louisville, Charlie Weatherbie at Navy, and Rocky Long at New Mexico) with a couple of seasons under Andersen. The Aggie offense had taken a big leap forward with Wells.

Wells is still on the job, and that’s a testament to patience. Everyone had to know a reset was coming, and the fact that Wells was still producing a top-70 product in year four was encouraging. But that only matters so much if the wins don’t keep trickling in; the Aggies either need to rebound or re-discover how to win tight games.

There’s an interesting contrast this year. The defense, still a top-50 unit, has some rebuilding to do in the front seven. For that matter, the offensive line is rebuilding as well.

Still, exciting quarterback Kent Myers is back, as are most skill weapons, and Wells brought in an intriguing name to liven up the Aggie attack: David Yost. The former Missouri coordinator spent the last four years at Washington State (inside receivers coach) and Oregon (quarterbacks coach), and he has been tasked with establishing a faster identity.

I’m betting on a 2017 rebound for USU. The Aggies are an interesting mix of proven pieces and new blood, and they weren’t nearly as bad as their 3-9 record suggested. Still, when your ranking has dropped for four straight years, betting on a turning tide isn’t the smartest move in the world.

2016 in review

2016 USU statistical profile.

Utah State was far more like a 5-7 team than 3-9 in 2016. Based on win expectancy — which takes the key stats from a given game and says, “You could have expected to win this game X percent of the time” — the Aggies had a 67 percent chance of beating New Mexico and a 92 percent chance of beating Nevada. There was about a 62 percent chance of them winning both and a 3 percent chance of them losing both. They lost both.

Five wins still probably isn’t enough in Logan, but having a chance at bowl eligibility heading into the season finale would have changed the tenor. Instead, this was a year in which USU started 2-1 and then lost eight of nine.

First 4 games (2-2): Avg. percentile performance: 58% (47% offense, 67% defense) | Yards per play: USU 5.5, Opp 4.9 (plus-0.6)

Next 5 games (1-4): Avg. percentile performance: 45% (42% offense, 45% defense) | Yards per play: Opp 5.7, USU 5.5 (minus-0.2)

Last 3 games (0-3): Avg. percentile performance: 55% (40% offense, 70% defense) | Yards per play: USU 6.4, Opp 4.8 (plus-1.6)

It’s hard to outgain opponents by 1.6 yards per play over three games and lose all three.

Regardless, Utah State was an incomplete team. The offense was consistently mediocre until a brief, late burst against UNM and Nevada, and while the defense was mostly solid, a midseason funk likely cost the Aggies a win or two.

Offense

Utah State offensive radar

Full advanced stats glossary.

Utah State’s 2016 offense was a walking contradiction. The Aggies lost expected workhorse back Devante Mays two games in and at times gave up on the run. Quarterback Myers averaged 7.2 yards per non-sack carry and only 5.7 yards per pass attempt (including sacks) but ended up throwing 47 passes against Air Force and 50 against Boise State. Halfback Tonny Lindsey averaged 5.2 yards per carry but “led” the Aggies with eight carries against Boise State and five against Wyoming.

Game state plays a role in how much you’re able to run or pass, but it seemed as if USU didn’t realize what it was and wasn’t good at. The Aggies attempted balance, but they ranked 24th in Rushing S&P+ and 116th in Passing S&P+.

That makes the Yost hire interesting. At their best, Yost’s Missouri offenses were efficiency machines, combining a solid zone run game with quick passes. He also lost his way at times from an identity standpoint, and then he spent three years coaching for Mike Leach. He doesn’t have the most run-friendly résumé, but he’ll utilize the zone read if it is available.

Here are some of the pieces he inherits:

Myers. He rushed for 641 yards in just 89 non-sack carries, but while he was named the leader in the QB battle after spring practice, he wasn’t named the outright starter. Myers completed just 59 percent of his passes at 11.3 yards per completion last year, and if Yost needs more passing, one could see redshirt freshman Jordan Love becoming a viable option.

Lindsey. Lindsey probably deserved more carries, but consistency would have helped his cause. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry in the first three games of 2016, then 1.3 in the next two. He averaged 8.1 against Colorado State, 3.7 against Fresno State and SDSU, 15 against Wyoming, 2.2 against New Mexico, and 7.4 against Nevada and BYU.

Rayshad Lewis and Ron’Quavion Tarver. Lewis, the sophomore son of NFL great Ray Lewis, might be USU’s best receiver and cornerback; he played both in spring ball [update: he’s since transferred to Maryland]. His per-target productivity wasn’t amazing, but he was a freshman, and over a six-game span in the middle of 2016, he caught a promising 22 passes for 339 yards. Tarver started slowly but had three games with at least 84 receiving yards.

Jaren Colston-Green. Okay, the senior caught just six passes in 2016, so you probably shouldn’t rely on him to post big numbers. But three of those went for more than 40 yards. If the run is working, and the quick passing attack is reasonably dangerous, Colston-Green could be the deep threat.

Damon Hobbs. The quarterback-turned-tight end scored six touchdowns on the ground and could be an interesting short-yardage and possession threat. No idea how Yost will use him.

Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports

Tonny Lindsey Jr.

That’s not the worst list of assets, but unless Colston-Green is busting loose, there’s not a surefire big-play threat, and the line is starting over.

Three honorable mention all-conference linemen are gone, and while three players return with starting experience (tackles Preston Brooksby and Cody Boyer, guard KJ Uluave), they have combined for only 16 starts. Transfers — JUCOs Rob Castaneda and Roman Andrus, plus BYU transfer Quin Ficklin — could play a major role up front.

Defense

Utah State defensive radar

The Utah State defense was still mostly solid in the Aggies’ first year with co-coordinators Frank Maile and Kendrick Shaver. But each year a few more cracks have formed as Wells attempts to maintain a successful balance of local JUCO transfers and five-year, diamond-in-the-rough recruits.

The Aggies still ranked a healthy 46th in Def. S&P+, and the pass defense was dynamite, but the run defense was inefficient. Considering the offense’s up-and-down input, opponents were able to generate just enough of a lead that they could lean on the run.

Depending on whether you’re an optimist or a pessimist, you might view the turnover up front in a couple of ways. The front seven was a little disappointing at stopping the run, so now isn’t the worst time for some turnover. At the same time, last year’s backups weren’t better than the starters, in theory, so there’s no reason to expect improvement.

There are still some intriguing players up front, though, if a couple youngsters develop as planned. Nose tackle Christopher ‘Unga played well late in his freshman campaign, and Chase Christiansen was showing promise as an attacking inside linebacker before he got hurt.

Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports

Chase Christiansen

If both ‘Unga and Christiansen are ready to play like starters alongside returnees like end Ian Togiai and linebackers Derek Larsen and Alex Huerta, the Aggies might hold steady up front. But they’ll need some newcomers to come through if they want to improve against the run. JUCO transfers at end (Devon Anderson) and linebacker (Suli Tamaivena, Louy Compton) could be answers, as could three-star redshirt freshman ILB Kevin Meitzenheimer or any number of RSFRs at end.

Regardless, the balance is obvious. If the run defense can hold, the pass defense should thrive again. There was constant shuffling on the two-deep in the secondary, and good offenses (USC, Boise State, and Wyoming, all of which ranked 33rd or better in Off. S&P+) were able to take advantage.

If you didn’t have an elite offense, though, you weren’t throwing. Those three teams produced a 174.2 passer rating; the other nine: 113.7.

USU has to replace safety Devin Centers and corner Daniel Gray in the defensive backfield [plus Lewis], but there are more than enough returnees to get you excited. Safeties Dallin Leavitt, Jontrell Rocquemore, and Gaje Ferguson all got starter-level experience last year even though all three missed time.

Corners Jalen Davis, Wesley Bailey, and Cameron Haney combined for 5.5 tackles for loss (mostly from Davis) and 15 passes defensed. If three-star JUCO Deante Fortenberry is ready to play at a high level, this secondary might match last year’s. Maybe it will struggle when good offenses like BYU, Colorado State, Wyoming, or Boise State come to Logan — all four of those come to Logan — but it’s hard to imagine the Aggie secondary struggling much.

Photo by Loren Orr/Getty Images

Jalen Davis

Special Teams

Like the defense, the Utah State special teams unit has regressed incrementally. The Aggies ranked 66th in Special Teams S&P+ in 2014, 98th in 2015, and 106th in 2016.

USU wasn’t awful at anything, but Brock Warren and Dominik Eberle had a small field goal range (USU was 91st in field goal efficiency), and while Aaron Dalton’s punts were high and unreturnable, they weren’t long (101st in punt success rate).

Dalton and Eberle are back, but the rest of the unit gets a reset. That might not be the worst thing.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 1-Sep at Wisconsin 11 -22.8 9% 7-Sep Idaho State NR 40.2 99% 16-Sep at Wake Forest 64 -6.6 35% 23-Sep at San Jose State 105 6.6 65% 29-Sep BYU 46 -4.0 41% 7-Oct Colorado State 43 -4.4 40% 14-Oct Wyoming 80 4.7 61% 21-Oct at UNLV 118 8.9 70% 28-Oct Boise State 29 -8.0 32% 4-Nov at New Mexico 110 7.6 67% 18-Nov Hawaii 109 12.2 76% 25-Nov at Air Force 116 8.5 69%

Projected S&P+ Rk 73 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 71 / 70 Projected wins 6.6 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -0.4 (70) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 109 / 110 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -5 / -12.7 2016 TO Luck/Game +3.2 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 66% (76%, 56%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 4.8 (-1.8)

Utah State lost a ton of close games last year but benefited from turnovers luck in keeping at least a few games close. The Aggies’ stronger unit (defense) deals with turnover, while the offense has continuity (and a new coordinator). They get four of their toughest opponents (BYU, CSU, Wyoming, Boise State) at home and a lot of weaker opponents on the road.

If you wanted to, you could use that paragraph as proof that the Aggies won’t bounce back in 2017. Regress further on defense, lose to good teams at home, drop a couple of tricky road games, and you’re 3-9 again.

You could also use that paragraph as proof that a rebound is imminent. Improve on offense, take down a couple of solid teams in Logan, handle your business, and you’re 8-4 or better.

Perhaps not surprisingly, S&P+ splits the difference. It says the Aggies will again only rank in the 70s, but that should be enough to get them back to six or seven wins. They have six games with win probability between 61 and 70 percent, and while they probably won’t win all of those, they could also snare at least one of four games between 32 and 41 percent.

I lean more toward the optimistic view than the pessimistic one, but that might be because I’m an optimist.

Team preview stats

All preview data to date.

[junker-town]

Utah State is Mountain West football’s biggest wildcard

Either the slide stops in 2017 or the Aggies consider a coaching change.

Matt Wells inherited an impossible task four years ago. When a mid-major loses the head coach responsible for a peak, it regresses back toward its self-defined mean.

That’s how things have worked since before “mid-major football” was even a term. It’s been part of the circle of life for decades, from Bob Devaney (left Wyoming for Nebraska) and Don James (left Kent State for Washington) to the present.

On rare occasions, they stay — Fisher DeBerry at Air Force, Lavell Edwards at BYU, Larry Blakeney at Troy. But it surprised no one when Gary Andersen, architect of the best Utah State team ever, left for Wisconsin.

Andersen’s 2012 Utah State Aggies went 11-2 and ranked 12th in S&P+. The Aggies lost at Wisconsin and BYU by a combined five, beat Utah, and knocked off four strong mid-majors (SJSU, UTSA, Louisiana Tech, and Toledo, which won a combined 37 games) by a combined 86. Andersen left some exciting pieces for Wells, but there was no way Wells was going to maintain that.

The slide has been steady. The Aggies went 19-9 in Wells’ first two seasons but slipped first to 32nd, then 57th in S&P+. The offense has been mediocre, but the defense has slipped from elite to mortal. And while USU held steady at 62nd in 2015 and 70th in 2016, the wins have vanished. The Aggies are still keeping games close, but now they’re losing those games; they’ve dropped seven of their last eight one-possession finishes, and after winning 10 games in 2014, they won a combined nine in 2015-16.

Wells was the most sensible hire USU could have made; a former Aggie quarterback, he had unique experience (a few years with Steve Kragthorpe at Tulsa and Louisville, Charlie Weatherbie at Navy, and Rocky Long at New Mexico) with a couple of seasons under Andersen. The Aggie offense had taken a big leap forward with Wells.

Wells is still on the job, and that’s a testament to patience. Everyone had to know a reset was coming, and the fact that Wells was still producing a top-70 product in year four was encouraging. But that only matters so much if the wins don’t keep trickling in; the Aggies either need to rebound or re-discover how to win tight games.

There’s an interesting contrast this year. The defense, still a top-50 unit, has some rebuilding to do in the front seven. For that matter, the offensive line is rebuilding as well.

Still, exciting quarterback Kent Myers is back, as are most skill weapons, and Wells brought in an intriguing name to liven up the Aggie attack: David Yost. The former Missouri coordinator spent the last four years at Washington State (inside receivers coach) and Oregon (quarterbacks coach), and he has been tasked with establishing a faster identity.

I’m betting on a 2017 rebound for USU. The Aggies are an interesting mix of proven pieces and new blood, and they weren’t nearly as bad as their 3-9 record suggested. Still, when your ranking has dropped for four straight years, betting on a turning tide isn’t the smartest move in the world.

2016 in review

2016 USU statistical profile.

Utah State was far more like a 5-7 team than 3-9 in 2016. Based on win expectancy — which takes the key stats from a given game and says, “You could have expected to win this game X percent of the time” — the Aggies had a 67 percent chance of beating New Mexico and a 92 percent chance of beating Nevada. There was about a 62 percent chance of them winning both and a 3 percent chance of them losing both. They lost both.

Five wins still probably isn’t enough in Logan, but having a chance at bowl eligibility heading into the season finale would have changed the tenor. Instead, this was a year in which USU started 2-1 and then lost eight of nine.

First 4 games (2-2): Avg. percentile performance: 58% (47% offense, 67% defense) | Yards per play: USU 5.5, Opp 4.9 (plus-0.6)

Next 5 games (1-4): Avg. percentile performance: 45% (42% offense, 45% defense) | Yards per play: Opp 5.7, USU 5.5 (minus-0.2)

Last 3 games (0-3): Avg. percentile performance: 55% (40% offense, 70% defense) | Yards per play: USU 6.4, Opp 4.8 (plus-1.6)

It’s hard to outgain opponents by 1.6 yards per play over three games and lose all three.

Regardless, Utah State was an incomplete team. The offense was consistently mediocre until a brief, late burst against UNM and Nevada, and while the defense was mostly solid, a midseason funk likely cost the Aggies a win or two.

Offense

Utah State offensive radar

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Utah State’s 2016 offense was a walking contradiction. The Aggies lost expected workhorse back Devante Mays two games in and at times gave up on the run. Quarterback Myers averaged 7.2 yards per non-sack carry and only 5.7 yards per pass attempt (including sacks) but ended up throwing 47 passes against Air Force and 50 against Boise State. Halfback Tonny Lindsey averaged 5.2 yards per carry but “led” the Aggies with eight carries against Boise State and five against Wyoming.

Game state plays a role in how much you’re able to run or pass, but it seemed as if USU didn’t realize what it was and wasn’t good at. The Aggies attempted balance, but they ranked 24th in Rushing S&P+ and 116th in Passing S&P+.

That makes the Yost hire interesting. At their best, Yost’s Missouri offenses were efficiency machines, combining a solid zone run game with quick passes. He also lost his way at times from an identity standpoint, and then he spent three years coaching for Mike Leach. He doesn’t have the most run-friendly résumé, but he’ll utilize the zone read if it is available.

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Rayshad Lewis

Here are some of the pieces he inherits:

Myers. He rushed for 641 yards in just 89 non-sack carries, but while he was named the leader in the QB battle after spring practice, he wasn’t named the outright starter. Myers completed just 59 percent of his passes at 11.3 yards per completion last year, and if Yost needs more passing, one could see redshirt freshman Jordan Love becoming a viable option.

Lindsey. Lindsey probably deserved more carries, but consistency would have helped his cause. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry in the first three games of 2016, then 1.3 in the next two. He averaged 8.1 against Colorado State, 3.7 against Fresno State and SDSU, 15 against Wyoming, 2.2 against New Mexico, and 7.4 against Nevada and BYU.

Rayshad Lewis and Ron’Quavion Tarver. Lewis, the sophomore son of NFL great Ray Lewis, might be USU’s best receiver and cornerback; he played both in spring ball. His per-target productivity wasn’t amazing, but he was a freshman, and over a six-game span in the middle of 2016, he caught a promising 22 passes for 339 yards. Tarver started slowly but had three games with at least 84 receiving yards.

Jaren Colston-Green. Okay, the senior caught just six passes in 2016, so you probably shouldn’t rely on him to post big numbers. But three of those went for more than 40 yards. If the run is working, and the quick passing attack is reasonably dangerous with Lewis and company, Colston-Green could be the deep threat.

Damon Hobbs. The quarterback-turned-tight end scored six touchdowns on the ground and could be an interesting short-yardage and possession threat. No idea how Yost will use him.

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Tonny Lindsey Jr.

That’s not the worst list of assets, but unless Colston-Green is busting loose, there’s not a surefire big-play threat, and the line is starting over.

Three honorable mention all-conference linemen are gone, and while three players return with starting experience (tackles Preston Brooksby and Cody Boyer, guard KJ Uluave), they have combined for only 16 starts. Transfers — JUCOs Rob Castaneda and Roman Andrus, plus BYU transfer Quin Ficklin — could play a major role up front.

Defense

Utah State defensive radar

The Utah State defense was still mostly solid in the Aggies’ first year with co-coordinators Frank Maile and Kendrick Shaver. But each year a few more cracks have formed as Wells attempts to maintain a successful balance of local JUCO transfers and five-year, diamond-in-the-rough recruits.

The Aggies still ranked a healthy 46th in Def. S&P+, and the pass defense was dynamite, but the run defense was inefficient. Considering the offense’s up-and-down input, opponents were able to generate just enough of a lead that they could lean on the run.

Depending on whether you’re an optimist or a pessimist, you might view the turnover up front in a couple of ways. The front seven was a little disappointing at stopping the run, so now isn’t the worst time for some turnover. At the same time, last year’s backups weren’t better than the starters, in theory, so there’s no reason to expect improvement.

There are still some intriguing players up front, though, if a couple youngsters develop as planned. Nose tackle Christopher ‘Unga played well late in his freshman campaign, and Chase Christiansen was showing promise as an attacking inside linebacker before he got hurt.

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Chase Christiansen

If both ‘Unga and Christiansen are ready to play like starters alongside returnees like end Ian Togiai and linebackers Derek Larsen and Alex Huerta, the Aggies might hold steady up front. But they’ll need some newcomers to come through if they want to improve against the run. JUCO transfers at end (Devon Anderson) and linebacker (Suli Tamaivena, Louy Compton) could be answers, as could three-star redshirt freshman ILB Kevin Meitzenheimer or any number of RSFRs at end.

Regardless, the balance is obvious. If the run defense can hold, the pass defense should thrive again. There was constant shuffling on the two-deep in the secondary, and good offenses (USC, Boise State, and Wyoming, all of which ranked 33rd or better in Off. S&P+) were able to take advantage.

If you didn’t have an elite offense, though, you weren’t throwing. Those three teams produced a 174.2 passer rating; the other nine: 113.7.

USU has to replace safety Devin Centers and corner Daniel Gray in the defensive backfield, but there are more than enough returnees to get you excited. Safeties Dallin Leavitt, Jontrell Rocquemore, and Gaje Ferguson all got starter-level experience last year even though all three missed time.

Corners Jalen Davis, Wesley Bailey, and Cameron Haney combined for 5.5 tackles for loss (mostly from Davis) and 15 passes defensed. If Rayshad Lewis and/or three-star JUCO Deante Fortenberry are also ready to play at a high level, this secondary might exceed last year’s. Maybe it will struggle when good offenses like BYU, Colorado State, Wyoming, or Boise State come to Logan — all four of those come to Logan — but it’s hard to imagine the Aggie secondary struggling much.

Photo by Loren Orr/Getty Images

Jalen Davis

Special Teams

Like the defense, the Utah State special teams unit has regressed incrementally. The Aggies ranked 66th in Special Teams S&P+ in 2014, 98th in 2015, and 106th in 2016.

USU wasn’t awful at anything, but Brock Warren and Dominik Eberle had a small field goal range (USU was 91st in field goal efficiency), and while Aaron Dalton’s punts were high and unreturnable, they weren’t long (101st in punt success rate).

Dalton and Eberle are back, but the rest of the unit gets a reset. That might not be the worst thing.

2017 outlook

2017 Schedule & Projection Factors

Date Opponent Proj. S&P+ Rk Proj. Margin Win Probability 1-Sep at Wisconsin 11 -22.8 9% 7-Sep Idaho State NR 40.2 99% 16-Sep at Wake Forest 64 -6.6 35% 23-Sep at San Jose State 105 6.6 65% 29-Sep BYU 46 -4.0 41% 7-Oct Colorado State 43 -4.4 40% 14-Oct Wyoming 80 4.7 61% 21-Oct at UNLV 118 8.9 70% 28-Oct Boise State 29 -8.0 32% 4-Nov at New Mexico 110 7.6 67% 18-Nov Hawaii 109 12.2 76% 25-Nov at Air Force 116 8.5 69%

Projected S&P+ Rk 73 Proj. Off. / Def. Rk 71 / 70 Projected wins 6.6 Five-Year S&P+ Rk -0.4 (70) 2- and 5-Year Recruiting Rk 109 / 110 2016 TO Margin / Adj. TO Margin* -5 / -12.7 2016 TO Luck/Game +3.2 Returning Production (Off. / Def.) 66% (76%, 56%) 2016 Second-order wins (difference) 4.8 (-1.8)

Utah State lost a ton of close games last year but benefited from turnovers luck in keeping at least a few games close. The Aggies’ stronger unit (defense) deals with turnover, while the offense has continuity (and a new coordinator). They get four of their toughest opponents (BYU, CSU, Wyoming, Boise State) at home and a lot of weaker opponents on the road.

If you wanted to, you could use that paragraph as proof that the Aggies won’t bounce back in 2017. Regress further on defense, lose to good teams at home, drop a couple of tricky road games, and you’re 3-9 again.

You could also use that paragraph as proof that a rebound is imminent. Improve on offense, take down a couple of solid teams in Logan, handle your business, and you’re 8-4 or better.

Perhaps not surprisingly, S&P+ splits the difference. It says the Aggies will again only rank in the 70s, but that should be enough to get them back to six or seven wins. They have six games with win probability between 61 and 70 percent, and while they probably won’t win all of those, they could also snare at least one of four games between 32 and 41 percent.

I lean more toward the optimistic view than the pessimistic one, but that might be because I’m an optimist.

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