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jeffrmayhugh · 4 years

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Bitcoin IM BULLISH! April 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

I’m bullish me into my saddle, my son and my son. Let me let me see. Let me go to my side. Let me. Yeah. April Fools. How clever. How creative. Jesus Christ, man. Sorry about that. But you know, what about having three cups of coffee in the morning? Again, a little bit of bad news from the doctor. Well, why not have a little bit of a laugh on April Fool’s? Anyway, I want to wish everyone well on this nice Tuesday or Thursday. No, it’s. Oh, it’s Wednesday, actually. It’s Wednesday. Hey, happy. Have a happy 1/0 life. Wish you a happy Wednesday from actually a kind of bright and bright and sunny Helsinki, Finland, albeit cold as fuck. It will be snowing here relatively soon is what I hear as well. So plenty to talk about on that as we do have plenty to talk about on price action as well. The monthly clothes and also I believe a couple other times higher time frames causes as well. Really set in a long term bias here. So we have much to discuss their fault from yesit’s analysis and really focus on the higher term time frame stay. So with all of that said, I would like to wish you the best, the best and perhaps the happiest because I’ve been doing that for a while. Sorry, my bad. It is more important do that than really anything else, because why the fuck not, man? It probably helps. Or at least it doesn’t hurt anyways. More importantly, let’s go check about the Crown training application which can be found at Abdol Crown traini dot net. It’s free. Go take advantage of it. It is when I’m sent for you. So anyways. Well, also for me as well. I actually use scorches. We made it. In fact, I found that’s the best way to just go about life. Make stuff that you’re actually going to use and then other people might find it valuable as well. Anyways, once again, putting the big focus on the open interest for the global derivatives, we see open interest going up about $34 40 since yes, since we last spoke yesterday for about five hundred seventy five hundred eighty to six hundred, 620 million. As it is right now. And also seen that the bitcoin dominates. I go now more or less flat. Not really saying anything there. The crypto fear and Greed Index also more or less flat as well, albeit pretty damn low in the in the low teens right now. But then that the big focus is here on the open interests. We’re gonna Tientsin to the analysis once again. And my god man, this has really been a big missing piece for I feel like myself looking at open interest. But now that we finally been able to track this over time, we have a number and we’re gonna be having a chart coming soon. I’ve been getting a lot of questions on when the chart comes. Oh there. Which is another million added. What could it be? Oh, it’s all sales coming in right through here. Beautiful tie, but more importantly, we’re working on it. It’s gonna be in the next update. But due to, well, the whole world situation, everything. Some of the updates have been pushed back a little bit just because well, it’s you know, there’s a whole global pandemic going on right now. So with regards to that open interest going up, price action. Well, let’s go see. Let’s go see what happened over here. Definitely went up. Right. Right. Right. Fuck, God damn it, man. Price action going down again. We see open interest going up, price action going down, volume having a little bit of a spike spike here. But we’re still caught in the context of the greater formations. So if what we need low term time frame is actually go back up here to the daily. And what do we know? The daily is still being held below the yellow 21 Ispent for average. Now, I just want to do a very small aside right here. This is incredibly similar to what we’re seeing on interest marks right here from a daily closing bases. We see a death cross. We see the 20 month extension on average so far rejecting price action. And this is consistent with all major all major markets. We see Japan riding over here. Same thing happened. Continuation. Oh, could that mean something? We see Germany doing about the same thing yesterday, still being rejected. But, well, I wouldn’t necessarily call this rejection, but still being held below below the 21. And with Japan kind of leading the way right now, I do believe that Bitcoin is a likely setting up for a relatively similar move. Probably put them back down below the six thousand dollar region. I see a lot of very bullish people in this market. I see a lot of very bearish people as well. So it is interesting because I do feel like our reads on sentiment in this community are probably not very consistent with the general sentiment of the market. But I do try to I do try to do my rounds of crypto Twitter and crypto YouTube just kind of kept catch up and does seem to me that most people are still kind of looking at this as likely to go back up to 8000 anyways. More importantly than that, we need to focus on the tangible things, not the intangible like bullshit that well, everyone’s book. It’s like who’s everyone in? And if and if everyone’s bullish and you’re in, you’re in, you’re the only bearish one. Then what does that even mean? I mean, I don’t know. Managers. It seems like an ego thing to me anyways, but it is it is insane nonetheless. Anyways, looking at this right here, I still stick with with with what I’ve been saying for the last few days or the last like week or so, that as long as you’re below the 21, I’ve been to an average special on an open and closed basis, but even on just a closing basis as well. I am I’m not bullish here and there’s no April Fool’s about this. I am looking at this as more or less a problem, but most likely come back down. Looking at the way that the monthy closed Miss Day Night, I do believe that we closed well below the 20 next month on average, as that’s all the way at Sony 300 ish region and hold up. Jesus Christ, man. Looks like there’s some weird things going on like Peter right over there. But more importantly, we do see that we have actually crashed or not crash, but a crack down below the 20 minutes Benjamin was on a confirmed month closing basis. So let’s. I once spend a lot of time here on the monthly, as is what say so first and foremost, as long as we are below the monthy 21 expensive inhabitants, yellow moon damage right here from a long term basis, I am not bullish at all whatsoever. In fact, the better term would be bearish. I’m looking for more downside. You can see that in Bitcoin’s history, especially go to be Aleksa next. The longest running exchange or their longest running price action is an exchange, obviously, but a trend that we’ve broken below the 20 minutes to an average. Well, that’s been deathand a K for bitcoin back over here in 2014 2015. More recently in twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen. And now we have it yet again in twenty. So this is something that I use in traditional markets when I was a market maker, authorized trade on the floor of AKA which I would judge a stock if it was generally bullish or gently bearish over the long term. If it’s above the 21 gently bullish blow, generally bearish works were works better with more mature assets. But now that Bitcoin’s, you know, a little bit over 10 years old, I think that it has just enough time on it for this to work. And more importantly, we have a series of efficacious signals given frontin from it. So my general my general view for the long term is I am not bullish at all whatsoever on bitcoin price action. As long as we are below that region, especially on a monthly closing basis, doesn’t mean that we can’t come back up and test it. In fact, I think that that is that that that could very easily happen now, too. But I would probably be looking at that as likely an opportunity for a counter-trend position or sorry kind of position to that move. More importantly, I think that we can now say that it would be very, very, very, very, very unlikely for Bitcoin market to be back up to 8000 or above 8000 in this, at least in the six month price action. And when we look at so much Mazur’s, which actually it’s look at the new ones right here, because down one has an updated just yet. We do see monthy stokes nosediving and more importantly, gaining momentum to the downside ratio right over here to getting reject from the bullsh controls on. Don’t like that. It’s check out monthly RSI. This one also problematic, but we didn’t actually take as big of a nosedive as I would expected here. So more importantly with the month, the RSI, well, it’s generally not a strong read or anything like that. We are still below the expansion. That exponential is working its way down to the neutral zone, although still gonna take a few months to get to get there, actually. But more importantly, if we if if we actually do test around the Barasch controls on, once again, my big fear here is that we bounce on this one, two, three, four times the fifth time and and in each subsequent try after that gets weaker and weaker. And the problem with this is, is that while we’re on the fifth time now, if we do actually come back down and test it. So if Bitcoin does break to the break to the south side, let’s call it below 5000. Now, that will likely bring monthly RSI below the bearish controls on. And I do believe that if that were to happen again, we’d very likely spend some time in there like prolonged time. We’ve we’ve had too many warm welcomes and and rejections from that region thus far. That really, really concerns me from a long term perspective. Again, if we do get back down around there. But as you know, as it is right now, it’s not necessarily there. But with the way that all well, with the way that the monthly trend is quite literally down, we literally have a monthly downtrend. We have high, low or high, low, low or high. And well, while we haven’t necessarily made a lower low just yet, I suppose that’s the game that we get to play this month. Are we setting in a higher low or a lower low if we set in a lower low, obviously below 30, 300. We are in for our first monthly are for well, not not a first monthly downturn, but a likely a very long downtrend. And that’s at the point where I’d say Bitcoin probably not can be talking about popping back up to the 5 digits, at least for a few years. So, you know, still there is a little bit of hope and left for the long term. Just don’t want to see a monthly close below our last major low right here at about thirty three hundred thirty five hundred depending upon where you’re kind of measuring it from. But but you know, that gives us the big bad range right here. We’re currently trading about, you know, 2x from that region anyways. Also, the monthly rounds of the accumulation dissipation indicated the net delta indicator. Once again, we are still maintaining this negative slope and the slope of this indicator has accurately gone in pretty much all of the market cycles in Bitcoin’s history. Pretty damn right. So with this remaining negative or is or what I should say, it’s just a downward slope is also, of course not good. But as we’ve seen in the past, you know you know, do we have sharp, sharp turns every once in a while? Yes, we do. But there should be adequate warning before the next major low is put in to put this in perspective. The last time that we had a slope change, will, you know, obviously we got the one to the downside right here in January. But I just want to show that when the slope changes, we typically spend at least one month within that range still and then turn around. So so it needs a slope change. And then next month, continuation boom. There you have a long term reversal. You know, you know, as of recently, what we saw in January 20. But what I really want to focus on here is actually the last major low that we put in in January twenty nineteen at about thirty one hundred ish region right here. So the slope changes from January to February and then it just floats way back upwards and onwards. The reason why that is, is it’s significant here is because again it gives you a little bit of time, you know, while that changes around. And the obvious, you know, obviously the general trend fall is to massively to the upside soon after that. So, you know, even even with a little bit of patience here and not getting in at the exact low at thirty three hundred, but getting in maybe a little bit higher at about thirty nine hundred, this region, which I think is pretty damn reasonable, the hopes not soon after that we do see a move all the way up to about 10000 or more really like 14000 bucks. So I just want to show that, you know, long term this is a slow moving freight train. But once it gets going, you know that, you know, those are the fun times. So could that happen here? Yes, it could happen. Could we you know, could we see a slope change on the next one, perhaps? Yes. But even then, I wouldn’t just jump right in, because as we did say, you know, it’s going to it’s going to likely take some time to reverse itself. Now, we do have a trend line forming here, to be fair. How do you know how? You know, just to touch to make a trend. No, it does not. But if we do see this next touch, actually, it’s actually turned around the slope coming in to what’s the month after April, May, June. Now, May, May. It’s May. I think it’s May, at least, anyway. It doesn’t matter what month it is just the next month after whatever fucking month that we’re in right now. Since this one doesn’t matter either, time is an arbitrary concept. If we do see this turn back around, then that should be a good signal as well. But for right now, and at least for the foreseeable future, I am overall bearish and I have no real reason be bullish on this price action. I understand that people do want to be a bulls out there and more power to you, but for the traders out there. Well, that is a monthly, obviously not the most bullish look. And then we come back down to the two day, which is, you know, which is which I do consider a higher timeframe on bitcoin. And what do we see here? The same sort of death cross that we’ve been looking at for the last the last few ticks. And what, you know, we just got another tick confirmed, I believe, yesterday. Let me just confirm. Yes. Actually, no, sorry, it did. This was a day before. But we will be confirming this next tick tonight at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time. And again, same thing here as well. We can recap rally all the way back up to the 21 X Benjamin average chest around Sony 50ish region. I think that that would be completely fine even. But I’m still bearish as long as we’re below the yellow 20 Max Benjamin average. And more importantly, we have the death cross, which is now starting to get a little bit of divergence away from each other on those two major move, never just right there. So what does that mean, long term? Well, long term, we have a very good relationship between the death cross moving averages and then and then essentially the 2010 expense. We haven’t you could say to a lesser extent the 10 simple, but. Well, we’ll kind of avoid that topic for right now, just for ease of conversation. Anyways, anytime that we’ve got the Death Cross or the Golden Cross and then price action gets on the same side as a 21 as that cross, that’s when we have big bad moves back on over here. We do see that we got the Golden Cross doing this consolidation about 7000 bucks. Bitcoin comes back down, tests 21. Nice, nice buy right there. A couple of times actually. Right here, right here, right here. And then a 2x 2p from seven thousand to fourteen thousand assuming that you bought on that region back in twenty eighteen very somewhere. Very some other Asian ship. Right. And over here as well gets a death cross late in September or late in 2018. Then we slowly but surely get ground down below the yellow. Twenty one expense for average. Now here’s the thing. Now we do get a couple of closes above, but it’s about on an open and closing basis. So you see that there’s no opens and closes above that region. And then once it gets below the twenty one, we are trending down and we are trending down pretty fucking hard all the way from top to bottom, about 52 percent move going all the way back before that. For our next example, or obviously this one is a beautiful one, going back to 2015, going all the way from like 250 bucks to 15 big. A big number, a big number like 20000 prefs. And then 2014, we had another death cross as well. Happy. And over here do play out that trend a little bit because the cross was so far away. It wasn’t really that big of a deal. And I do think that we could have something similar like this pop back up where we do see another another shakeout or another bull trap backup to the 55 or 200. But assuming that, you know, we’re still we’re still remaining below that on a closing basis, I’d expect some like this to kind of curl back on over. And then as soon as we get back down below the 20 when I speak to an average again. Well, well, this looks familiar now doesn’t hey. No, it doesn’t, because I don’t have my drawn two up, maybe about a nice on a closing basis, 55 percent on a week basis. Obviously a lot more than that. But I’m more in certain closing based right now. So, you know, looking at price action right here, you know, could we have another rally backed up to, you know, into the low of seven thousand? I think that’s possible. But there’s a lot of overhead resistance in its way. So I wouldn’t be looking for any sort of a major move into the $8000 region. I do think it’s possible we could have a move to 7000 bucks, but I’d look at that again as an opportunity. And this is not finished by not venture Voser. And of course, you know, when it comes to technical analysis, we are only using statistics in our favor over time. That is that is likely to to to produce a net positive result. But that does mean that every time is gonna work out. But I do like. The setup’s here and it’s good enough for me to put on risk if I do get that opportunity. Also looking at 2 a.m., much more serious we see to day. Stokes So I need to curl around a little bit. They start to get a little bit tired here as they approach the edge of the bears controls on which typically you are going to see some countertrend pressure at meshe you get rid of this right here. It’s not relevant to what we’re talking about now. And then we also have some well, actually we know we don’t have any hidden embellished evidence here or should I say continuation Everton’s. We certainly do, however, have it on the daily all the way back up to its eight thousand. No idea. So that’s gonna be in the charts as long as you know, as long as we’re below essentially like a what is this like eighty one hundred. Notes. It’s, it’s actually about seventy nine fifty ish regions. So on a daily plosive basis that’s always gonna be a consideration there. Not only that, we do see daily Stoke’s Curlin back down rejection, the bullet control zone and Gameau much to the downside. Not good. Not good at all. Also, we do see daily RSI reject from getting out the Barash controls on thusfar. Although this could this this this is probably the biggest hoping I’m right here. We do actually have an inverted head and shoulders on daily RSI and I put a lot more weight on formations in RSI than I do on price action, especially when it comes to the inverted head and should the head and shoulders variety. See? Yeah. You know, if we did break back above the neutral zone, above the 50 marker right here, I would look for this to play out. But until that happens, it still pressure down sooner rather than later. Again, that does still tie in to the higher term time frame buys. Remember that this can take a long time to play out. So, you know, if if we did play that out, I’d look for that move. Like, I don’t know. Seventy three hundred ish region, we’ll call it. And then I’d look for a quick rejection most likely as well. And then for all the higher term time frames to start to take on over again. Let’s go check out the twelve hour with a twelve hour two and twelve hour. Stoke’s actually did point north and did cross up on the last tick. However, here’s the thing. I think that this is likely to turn into a fake out. The reason why is because if we go over here to see CMBS, we see something completely different. And the CNE stokes in the CMB indicators in general have just been significantly more accurate than spot price action. And we got plenty of room here, plenty of room to the downside. And if we look at CMA charts right here, there’s some great symmetry here with coming back up, filling the gap. Couple are about a day and a half ago and thus far rejected below all major moving averages, even on a 12 hour. And, of course, on a daily as well as it stands. So if we. So so here’s how I can kind of break down a little bit. If we do take out the 30th of March as high, which was I think Monday or whatever day, it doesn’t matter, 30th March. This guy right here, about 66, 60. If we do take that out to the upside, I would look for an extension probably into those low seven thousand dollar numbers. Yes. Technically, we do have resistance right around 68 hundred ish region. So theoretically, I’d rather wait for like a, you know, a two hour or four hour deal to close above that region and then target to move towards seventy two to seventy three hundred each region. But it’s not really until we even get back above that hump. It even becomes, you know, in my immediate short term interpretation, I guess as to where that I’m going for anyways. While we are here on num-, on Sammies, we do CCMA. RSI is actually is a couple degrees more bearish than what we see on price on on spot price action. Significant hit embarrassed evidence here all the way back up to the 9th of March when again Bitcoin was around eight thousand bucks. And this chart again looks set, looks actually some of the reads more bearish than spot price action. And I do believe that Siamese are a lot more important. So again, short term price action. This can ebb and flow. Of course, we can get a nice we could get we could easily get a move up to seventy two to seventy under this region. But I I I I would look at that as an opportunity again and again. It’s not finished by some. I’m not found reviser, but I am just sharing my my exact thoughts on these situations as they come about for our looks like we’re kind of breaking down, rolling over once again for our looks like we’re probably popping back down at six thousand ish region low six thousand. And and I would kind of hold on to that idea as long as we are below sixty five fifty ish regions. So maybe now’s the time to get onto the lower term time frames. Let’s go back to let’s go back a bit Mexico. Mexico is kind of tipping over as well. What could this be. Momentum losing to the downside. Oh and is this the same trouble that we had plotted against already have it in there? Is this the same trend line that we have plotted out yesterday, providing the same resistance from the same last couple highs, ninetieth March 25th or 24th, March right here. And once again, on the 30th of March, I think it might just be. And I do think that this is likely going to end up back down in this. Bluebox Right here, some Bitcoin’s short Senate stint above the Bluebox Right and over here faded rather quickly. I think that this was that this cell right here was a front runner. This BLUEBOX And likely coming back down to the six thousand dollar mark, maybe been a little bit below this. Bluebox Right here. That’s where things get interesting once again. So let’s now start to start to break down the lower term time frames. Now there’s there’s a couple ways of doing this. I’m going to do this in the more conservative way because I think it’s just it’s appropriate in this region, even though I do think even though I do think you could probably. You could get aggressive traders who are going to be rewarded most likely. I didn’t say that. I didn’t say that. But Sabbar Hape, if we do take out either to last. Even the. Even taken out the last for hour low to the downside at 6 to 50, or especially for close even a two hour dollar below 60 to 50 ish region, the lower end of this. Bluebox And this is a more concerted way of doing it. I would target has moved down down around 50 950 ish region. I would look for another bounce of this guy. But remember, that is the lower bound that is that is actually gonna be below the lower bound of this rising channel support that we’ve been playing off of ever since our low riding over here on the 12th of March, which, by the way, doesn’t look right on a on a 4 hour. But we’ll look proper on a 2 hour right here. And for all the multiples of that siete, you know, if you know, if we do come back down, obviously to about 60, 150, we have another short term time frame bounce. Yes. Maybe I I don’t have a strong opinion on that. But I do think my strong opinions I’ll just be a short term time frame bounce as long as long as you remain below above 6, RSI below 60, 350. You know, I’d still I’d still say that that’s pressure down. And we’re likely to break this rising trend line right here as we come down to the next major blue bought or not even Major Bluebox, but like a medium time from relevant Bluebox again in the 59, we’ll just call it fifty nine hundred this region if, if and when we do break this one. I would look for a nice shouter in a price action all the way back down to fifty five hundred. Just reading. That’s going to be the weekly tour and it’s simple moving average, which probably does bounce it again as as indicated by this nice blue box. And it’s only because of the blue box at a bounce is not because of any other reason. No, of course not. This is this is not hocus pocus bullshit. It’s, um. It’s it’s while it’s. It’s just a nice area that generally people are gonna be betting on because of the nature of the tune. It’s simple on a weekly a lot of lotto, you know, a lot of the higher term time frame traders are just gonna have their balls now get set to buy it. But seeing as we haven’t haven’t necessarily broken this trend line just yet, initiated the measure moved from this rising channel, I would proverbially put it around where it could break if it does happen today. And that would still be pointing us down towards a little bit higher than before, but about 40 to 50 ish region on new lows. That would be interesting to me, though, and I do think that there’d be bounces along the way, perhaps universe it vs. along the way. But I’d be looking at this area right here, 55, I’d look at this area right here, 51, and I’d look at this area right here at 48, 14:00. And then and then assuming that those that that all those bounce temps fail, I would look for a full on return all the way back down here to 40 to 50. Why is that relevant? Well, because if we were to come all the way back down there, we likely would be creating bullish evidence on the daily by that point as the daily RSI got. So damn, I’m actually didn’t get mean. It got it got pretty low, to be fair, but it didn’t get into single digits, which very I don’t even think we’ve even seen or may. Maybe we have like a few times in Bitcoin’s history. Yeah, we did actually over here. This was November 2008. One of the most intense moves to the downside that we’ve seen in this baby anyways. So as it stands, you know, this right here to me is like your classic fuckin vertical move in a bear market usually going to be a usually gonna be a short squeeze. And I think that that’s what we’re seeing right here. The question to me, you know, D. The question that I’m deliberating on right now is do we get it? Do we get another move up to 70, 300, this region in tests there? Maybe. Maybe not. I don’t. A strong opinion on that. I’ll leave a strong opinion if we break sixty eight hundred the upside, then we probably will get it. But I still look at it, you know, adds it as an opportunity. This is just this is like fucking picture perfect actually. Volume tailing off. We saw open interest go down the whole way as bitcoin hit that area from like 1.5 billion with a B to a little bit over 600 million now. And as price actually moves down from yesterday to today and all the moves down that we’ve seen, first thing that open interest go up. So that is just showing us that bears are where were were close their shorts, which likely caused this this rise right here. So a little bit of a short squeeze on top of that for the overleveraged late traders, late to the trade traders. And now we know as bears put back on their positions, once again, they are they are in full control and they are running things. And I fear that this is going to take a long time for the bitcoin holders out there, but doesn’t matter for Hotaling for life, because while it doesn’t, it doesn’t matter anyways, because, like, you’re just gonna hold onto it till death. You’re not gonna. Are you just gonna look at pics on your screen and stroke it? I don’t know. I don’t know. Anyways, I don’t understand that perspective. But if you are that person, if you are that person who is who who is hashtag Hoddle till I die, I’m curious to know why. Why? What’s what’s the purpose of that? If you’re not going to use it. And I sincerely mean that I’m not I’m not trying to be. What’s the word I’m looking for patronising or any or anything? I’m genuinely curious. What’s the allure to that sort of position or is there any sort of or is there any thought process behind it? I’m curious anyways. More importantly, if we do get them move back down to 40 to an honest region, then at that point we likely will be making some bullish evidence on the daily. Why is that significant? Well, because Bitcoin’s never bottomed ever, ever, ever, ever on a major macro market cycle or even a major move without having bullish evidence on, at the very least, a daily dollar timeframe. To put this in perspective, even on this major move right here. Markets like a low, but a major move nonetheless. Multi-thousand move, 4000 or move to be exact. We had pretty massive bullish evidence off the off the six six hundred number right here. We had three drives out here before 3000. Our move bearish divergence on the top right here. It works both ways and three drives a bullish divergence in 2018, 2019 on this. Thirty one hundred low for here. Several examples in twenty eighteen on all these failed rally attempts and we can go all the way back as well. But I would we’ve done this too many fucking times already now for the newer people here. Well that there’s a long term analysis video in it. Sorry. In the long term analysis playlist that you’re more than welcome to TiVo anyways. Okay. All righty. So what else do we want to look at? This video is already been twenty five minutes long. How does that even happen? I don’t know. But let’s go back down to lower term time frames and let’s start to look at probabilities with regards to these ranges. Let’s let’s keep in mind the range is once again. So here today’s a little bit of a different day, right? Because technically speaking, I have this blue box as the next medium time frame actionable point as well as this blue box to the upside, which has remained consistent at sixty eight hundred. I do, however, think that it would be you probably could be could be aggressive if bitcoin were to break sixty one hundred ish region or above the 30th of March is high at about sixty six fifty we’ll call it. So we’ll look at the probabilities of all these for the lower term time frames. But keep in mind that it’s really this guy right here and technically this guy right here that are the big ones. Then on the outside peripheries for the higher term time frames. Seventy three hundred region. And then of course, fifty five hunters can be our next major area to the downside, although. Well, I’d be skeptical of that one, too. Anyways, let’s just look at the probabilities as they are as this dance. And this is on a daily, by the way. This is on a daily. So we do see that the first tend to be Asian is coming in right around 60, 750 to the upside and sixty and fifty nine hundred to the downside. So that pretty much accurately gets those actionable points to begin with. I’m saying sixty eight hundred of the upside. So be a little bit outside the topside range and I’m saying fifty nine hundred. The downsides, I’ll be right on the edge of that precipice. So it’d be about a 16 percent chance of actually do close below the bottom trigger point for today. Now remember that Borton trigger point is a little bit more of a conservative estimate. I do think that you could accurately put that at 60 100 and probably be right anyways, giving you a twenty dollar leg up on that move. So that’s obviously gonna be well within those probabilities. If I had to do some mental math that I imagine it’s like twenty five percent, you know, which is which is which is high which, which is quite high by the same token to the upside it’s gonna be a little bit less than 16. It’s going to be more like less than 14, 13 percent if I had to guess. But we can actually do this exact as it is. So with regards to that, let’s go check him out. What’s. I think I’m on the wrong one, actually. Right now. Yep. Okay. All right. Where where are my panels go? Hey, where are my panels? I just. I must I must have ticked something off because I was just looking at this earlier. Perhaps perhaps this right here. Yeah. Should be right here at least. Yeah. We can do some some single sided targets. All right. So let’s check out this. Let’s check out this. And then where’s my goddamn panel? Where’s my panels? Whereas my panels. Let’s go to the downside I’m going to do. I’m gonna do six thousand. Just kind of like cut those two major areas to the to the middle. And let’s see, where is where the fuck is. Most definitely, sir. Sir, it should be here. I don’t I don’t have this. Mm hmm. It actually shows the probability, right, that that’s kind of cool. OK. I thought I thought that we’d have another pain there, but that’s OK. Yeah. Baldies actually been working on this quite a bit. So it is pretty damn cool to see. Anyways, it would suggest about no, that can’t that can’t be right because I’ll be a 4 percent four-person chancellery. And to the downside, after actually checking with him because for whatever reason we were just speaking before this video and it looks like my probability panel disappeared. Where? Hold on. It should show the it should show the position here. We got negative 40 and 100. Mm hmm. We’ll see what this one is and we’ll just put it right next to it. It’s a negative 10 and one. OK. So maybe if we do like negative 20, get a little bit close, then see if this works. Yeah. There it is. Oh, man. All right. Nice one anyways. OK. There we go. OK. And that makes a lot more sense. 30 if we do use six thousand our level at as kind of a mark to the middle for the downside, 30 percent chance. And this is by dates and clothes for the upside. I would still stick with 68 just because, you know, trend is against it right now. And bias is to the downside. So I’d rather be more conservative even though probably 66 50 does get it. But so let’s see here to the upside 60. Hold on. That can’t be right. Sixty eight. It’s using. Was it using a range? No. It should not be used in range. Yeah. It’s using single side right now. Just says that. OK, cool. That probably actually does not make sense. So I’m going to talk to Bolly again because I think I’m using the wrong inputs here. Should be on on on current time is 1. Okay. Prive little bit of talking to do. But maybe we could use a different R.F.. OK. I will arrive to prompt a wait for this one. But you know, we can still kind of eyeball it anyways just because the tops of the first aviation is coming in at sixty seven fifty. It’s gonna be less than a 60 percent chance, so probably around 13 percent anyways for the upside. So interesting off to kind of talk that one out. Let me just make sure that yeah. That that would not make sense. Or maybe I’m looking at the wrong numbers here. No I don’t think so. Well I’ll figure this one out anyways anyways. OK, cool. So with that in mind, I do still think, you know, just just generically looking at that. It does look to me like we probably are angled for the downside here again, from a called probability standpoint and just offs from an underlying market dynamic standpoint, also from a structure standpoint. Also just from I again, I this is a very familiar move that we see quite often in Bear, you know, in these failed bear market rally. It’s just a very vertical move up and then momentum wanes anyways. Is this a good time to go? Let’s actually go check out CMBS right now as well. Here’s if there’s anything other else different on this. We’ll see how the money looks on this one. Obviously, the month looks like absolute dog shit, not the picture of health and fitness there now is it? Let’s go check out a two day to day. Still be held below the 10 simple looks like downwards pressure to me. And we could also use that as an actionable point as well. As long as the two day is below the 10 simple, I would not look for that next. That next shakeout to the upside. The next squeeze. The upside. Now, if we do close above the 10 simple Cixi, it’s basically at sixty five fifty sixty six six hundredths region. Then I would look for a retest of the twenty one. All the way. All the way. Currently it’s at around twenty five point eight, but I would match that about the time that actually does happen should be down around the seventy three candidates region. Now more importantly Death Cross is, is it’s actually technically not confirmed broadened over here just yet, but it is in the works, although I wouldn’t necessarily trust the CMC moving averages on this heibel time frame just yet as it’s too new. It’s neat. It needs a couple more years of price action. I mean realistically, we haven’t even had the 200X measurement average here for too long. As you can see, just started in June. Twenty nineteen. But of course GAPPAH Gap boys rejoice because your gap’s going to be filled perhaps. And I’ll le I’ll leave that for the long term analysis fed video for right now. I think that that kind of accurately covers up all that I want to say in the lower term time frames looking at for our right here we have the same sort of trend line as you can imagine as well. I do believe that we’re seeing this aggressively turn down once again. Let’s go check. Ouch. Let’s go check out some of the other market leaders. Just just make sure that the market more or less agrees with itself. Beautiful. Certainly a degree, a degree, a degree more week as we do see this one just kind of floating aimlessly sideways, did not get the same sort of upward move that Bitcoin did. If this one does have another move, the upside, I’ll be looking for a move towards 1:43 in a quarter. But I think I think that they’ll likely still be a major opportunity. Well, much more so is turning down as price action fails to even get out of the neutral zone and is essentially hugging onto the lows. So that’s a. That looks like a Barasch reset to me. Same thing with daily RSI. This is not again. Or do we have an embarrassed evidence here? Just barely. Just barely. Attentively as president, but but just barely. If we take out yesterday’s low, then it will be confirmed, which is 130, spot 6:03. Perhaps press worth putting an alert there. In fact, I will add. Fuck it, I want you. But if that does happen, I’d look for a move back down to like 1:22 region. What about Mrs like win? How she doing as she’s about the same as β all. Maybe a little bit stronger, relatively speaking, but same thing here. Momentum also does turned down daily RSI. Do we have the same sort of potential had embarrassed divergence here? Kind of. Yes. Again, it looks like a bearish reset to me. Not not getting the same sort of strength as Bitcoin did on those last couple moves. The upside, but still hugging the lows. I mean, this is just this. This is what the chart actually looks like. Stop putting on logger minutes yet. You don’t need logarithmic scale anymore. We’ve had enough history in bitcoin. We’ve we’ve had enough history. Bitcoin now where linear scale I think is relevant, especially if you’re looking at any price action from like twenty seventeen to where we are right now. Maybe if you look at it before that prior to 2017, you might want log scale, but. But now now that Bitcoin’s been around for more than 10 years, we can use linear scale and you know, especially as the range kind of consolidates between this 3000 level and about about the ten thousand dollar level on average. OK, what else we want to look at? Let’s go look at spineless you a little more of a deep dive here. So last week I said that espied if Spike closes below the 2 and it’s simple and 200x Benjamin average, then I would not be bullish. I would be overall bearish looking for new lows. I don’t necessarily know when those new lows will come in, but I do believe that we likely will attempt to new lows and I still stick with that and I would be sticking with that, you know. Granted the same criteria as longs for closing weekly doulas, especially the one at Simple at 264 and a half. I do believe that that we’re going to come back down and test tests to 35 at the very least, and probably another small bounce there. And then and then and then we’ll kind of look it up, you know, look at it from there. But as it is right now, you know, pressure down here. Now, if we did close above the 2 an example, I’d look for a move perhaps all the way back up to like 285 region. But this is a very smart move to Bitcoin as well. Just a very vertical move off the lows. I can’t be bullish on this as long as long as even below the daily twenty one here on a closing basis, especially on an open and close basis that we have as we have seen, a couple of fake outs among the general market index indices. Well this one technically an ETF, but you know its tracks sbx. So you you already fucking know anyways. So yep. You know, I do think those one product does come back down to like five and then to 35 probably played another bounce there and then better hope that that one plays out back above 265. Otherwise new lows, maybe new lows. Same thing here as well. We’ve actually never had major lows put in without without bullish evidence. Not not at a daily but actually I believe on a weekly all mage, all all major lows have been have been put on on or actually. No, not all major lows have been put on for a for a what’s called a a weekly weekly bullish Everton’s. But market cycle lows have. Yeah. Going back to 2008 and going back to 2000, both major crashes. We do have phenomenal bullish divergence, at least two drives in some cases, three coming out of those markets. And if we go all the way back to eighty seven, which I don’t think we have enough price action history here for fuck. Yeah. If if only then I’d imagine that we proxy it there too. Not now. It make three times, but unfortunately due to the limitations of trading V we cannot see back that far. More importantly, you know, it’s still kind of holded with that. As long you know, as long as it’s working and we pay close monthly in yesterday as well and we close right below the 55. Just a just a just a dick hair below 55 on heavy volume on increasing volume, nonetheless. And is that is that indicative of capitulation there? Perhaps, yes. Per. You know you know, I mean, obviously, we saw a little bit capitulation there, but dip in our 20s, he was back into the bearish control zone of this. That means that we also closed on new lows. No, sorry, we did not close on new lows as well. Okay. This one actually could still have a chance to bottom in the 235 ish region. It’s still a possibility, I suppose, but I’m not necessarily looking forward to it. Monthly’s Stoke’s have found all of their major lows, especially for this run right here at the edge of the bear. At the edge of the bullsh controls on eversince, all that going all the way back to 2008. So I do think that we probly come back down and test that region and put in a major low on it, as we have done right here, as we’ve done right here, as we’ve done right here and as we’ve done right here. All phenomenal buys post 2008. Do we come back down to that trend line again? I think I think yes, likely. And I also think that we’ll probly bounce on that one again. Here’s the counterpoint to that. We’ll just we’ll just pretend that that didn’t happen. I don’t wanna see a fucking global financial meltdown that would really suck. What else we want to look at? Look at gold. Gold. Coming back down at 50 90, as we said yesterday, was likely not a good month close here, actually. Really not a good month close. I do think they were going to come lower overall. I do think they were going to come down to like 15, 30, maybe play out another bounce there. But I’m not I’m not bullish and I’m not bearish on this one. I am. I am. I am short term. Short term. I’m bearish here. Short term embarrassment. I do think they are going to come back down like 15, 30 ish region long term. I am neutral ish with a slight bullish twist. Twist just because of the just because of trend, but a massive long legged D-O-G double right here. I still think that this is one of the more or one of the most healthiest charts in, you know, in just the general landscape, no matter what market that you’re looking at. And again, I’m not I’m not a fan of gold. I don’t really care about gold. But it is acting as what you’d expect a hedge to act as thus far. But this this is concerning that that close, very concerning from a moment, from all sort of perspective, I GSO think that. So I would still say that more, you know, more more likely to air on the side of bullishness here than bearishness, but anywhere, anywhere below about 15 hundred. And that goes out the window, especially below fourteen seventy five. That would be a very obvious, obvious swing filler pattern. And we’re gonna come all the way back down to like thirteen hundred at that point. Jesus Christ man I when I first thought of trading I saw this thing go all the way from like eighteen hundred down to down to 10 down eleven hundred right here. I traded Gilardi. I never traded actual export gold. In fact, I want to kind of check out what it’s doing right now. How’s this one operating? Yeah. Didn’t didn’t get as favorable as a close as a spot gold. Interesting. Still interesting still. But technically a little bit a little bit of bearish divergence in play between this point right here in this point right here. That is a little bit problematic. Not by a little bit. I mean quite a bit. So that would be the bearish view on this. But this is the ETF. You do want to be looking at spot gold for actual you know, for actual direction. I do think. Anyways, arm. Where to look at Japan. We are looked at Germany. Let’s go back to Bitcoin, cover this bitch up and send them off. And then it’s twitch time baby, which I forgot to talk about earlier. I’m going to be doing twitch and we’re going to be doing the. I’m going to be going for a new all time record. The record so far is a seven is a seven hour and seven minute stream. I’m going for eight hours, baby. I’m going for eight hours. And I think that that it can be done. You’re more the moment, Jonathan. Anyways, pick one right here. Put back on these. Put it back on. The blue boxes of death indicate no peace and prosperity. April fools, go fuck yourself. Just kidding. But but you know, it’s shaking out the last for our low. Probably even does this 6 to 50 or close in a two hour delta below. Let’s call it 6 to 50 as well. I would look for a move all the way back down to six fifty nine fifty six thousand ish region. Now, the Bluebox riding over here probably does have another short term time frame bounce. However, assuming that that bounce just doesn’t get back above, let’s call it 60, 350, this region right here. I will look for that bounce get sold into and then we can play out the actual downside coming all the way back down to the mid five thousands region. By the same token, if Bitcoin were to flip back around, take out the 30th of March high on on an aggressive take on about six six fifty or especially in more conservative way, closing for our dollars back above about sixty eight hundred ish region, then I would target to move all the way up to 70, choose any 300’s region. However, I think that that would just give us another or perhaps give me another. Nice, nice trade up. Nice trade setup right there. Again, this is never fun Tobiason about French Voser but I do like a lot of things that I’m seeing the mark right now from a trading perspective. So at the end of the day to be a trader, I do think as you’re not gonna be relying on the erratic moves and swings of this asset and instead can just enjoy the volatility as that is opportunity on and off. Now, I want to wish you all I want to wish everyone here a phenomenal day. It’s been an absolute pleasure speaking with you. And this very once had a conversation once again and again, Matt. You know, I see a lot of the I see a lot of the panic with with what’s going on the world right now. I found a lot of security and insult and solace in this community and just kind of like, you know, focusing on things that we can focus on and change and keep on working towards cultivating these skills of which I’m cultivating a skill and twitch right now, which I’m really excited about, and also trading as well. Keeping that keeping that short saw swords sharp can’t speak. And and that makes for a very fun journey. So, you know, during this time, I hoped, you know, I hope that we can all come together over that anyways. Like I said, I’m droning off a little bit too long now. Take care. And until next time.

source https://www.cryptosharks.net/bitcoin-im-bullish-april-2020-price-prediction/ source https://cryptosharks1.tumblr.com/post/614262782365417472

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scottmapess · 4 years

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Bitcoin IM BULLISH! April 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

source https://www.cryptosharks.net/bitcoin-im-bullish-april-2020-price-prediction/ source https://cryptosharks1.blogspot.com/2020/04/bitcoin-im-bullish-april-2020-price.html

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cryptosharks1 · 4 years

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Bitcoin IM BULLISH! April 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

source https://www.cryptosharks.net/bitcoin-im-bullish-april-2020-price-prediction/

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heatherrdavis1 · 4 years

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Bitcoin IM BULLISH! April 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

Via https://www.cryptosharks.net/bitcoin-im-bullish-april-2020-price-prediction/

source https://cryptosharks.weebly.com/blog/bitcoin-im-bullish-april-2020-price-prediction-news-analysis

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galimatios · 5 years

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sci-fi au again but it’s some bastardized blame au feat. my twins

thinking about a bastardized blame au that borrows the setting of blame but with some minor differences, aka humans weren't dead for as long and silicon lifeforms are part of a disease that turns pure humans into half synthetic life, aka go feral go crazy some retain intellect tho, and pure silicon creatures are fully sentient and intelligent but im thinking of a society in which android labor was widespread, but bc humans were wiped by silicon corruption, there's huge populations of androids w/o purpose humans do still exist but they're not pure, most of them have varying levels of silicon corruption as well as varying resistances. it does grant these humans superhuman strength or healing though i kind of. wanna put rey and ray as twins in this au as bounty hunters aka humans who hunt down corrupted humans who've gone too far... but they also do odd delivery jobs and stuff likelihood is that they've been alive for Way longer than humans should be due to their own corruption they remember what life was like before things went to shit ray owned a restaurant and rey owned the bar on top of it as siblings they went thru hell together and back and this was their dream and. well. then shit changed but also aesthetic bc: rey with short hair, tank top, sci-fi ass gear and army boots she's also the Slightly Older twin and holds this to ray all the time they argue. Nonstop. sometimes they cant stand eachother bc dumbasses both have strong aggressive personalities but (and ive been thinking abt rey w a sibling for a while) at the end of the day they trust eachother bc they both had the same shitty mom and survived. they can do anything, they're Them? but the scourge... well. they're always upbeat. they have eachother after all, but sometimes when they're alone, ray gets nostalgic. a little wistful, a little sad "it was nice while it lasted, huh? not even a full ass decade, and everything came tumbling down." legs hanging off a ledge, the smell of cigarette smoke "wonder how dom's doing." rey doesn't want to talk about her. she steals the cig from his mouth and puts it out. "that shit ain't good for you." "the fuck? you smoke too you know." but rey's already leaving. neither of them know if dom survived. ray lost a best friend, rey lost a lover it's been two hundred years, maybe more. if she hadn't shown up, dead or alive, she's probably gone but the thing is, the megastructure is huge. so vastly huge and confusing, anything can happen. ray thinks one day she'll show up. dom is tough. she's out there somewhere. (END PROSE) also i just love the idea of rey being a heavy firearm user and she just has a huge laser cannon strapped to her back at all times ray thinks weird flex but ok he probably uses a device that resembles some sci-fi spear/rapier thing but it channels electricity so on his command he can roast shit and also override / destroy power structures as needed. both of them have mechanical skills, can hotwire stuff, they're too dumb for hacking so they usually just try to physically brute force shit (aka... hitting it until it works) ray... leather jacket and gloves. NOTED THO: organic materials are really rare and are either salvaged or synthetically created instead. so this is like fake ass bioengineered leather from one of the few bastions of semi-human life, a big city within the megastructure that's where rey and ray live... they actually do want to start a restaurant again but. i think they've sworn off it until they find out what happened to dom, bc she's the only person they've ever trusted with their dream so until then, bounty work ok wow i kind of love ray w a fucking. black electric rapier spike thing + black gloves and black jacket, leather fucking pants, DANGER BOY!!! then rey loves firearms but sometimes she JUST PUNCHES SHIT. SHE'S STRONG!!! fingerless gloves for the girl. cries I love my redheads

KEITH PROBABLY. WOULD BE A TRAINEE BOUNTY HUNTER/SCOUT AND PROBABLY HAS A MASSIVE CRUSH ON RAY LMFAO. ray is like lmfao (puts hand on head) u are So Short keith: kkkdjdjsjhdhdhfnfbfbfjgjfjfj rey voice god you have bad taste keith follows ray around like a puppy who wants to be helpful and ray doesnt particularly mind as long as he doesnt get in the way. but its like. this video (youtu.be/TJAqwSmbKJc)

SORRY KEITH HE LIKES HUNKS AND TWUNKS BUT UR TWINKISH TWUNK AT BEST but ray has a soft spot for him once keith proves he's actually super capable at his job puppy gets head pats god i wanna stick all my ocs in this au now jonah would be s service android who used to work for a family he really cherished but they were wiped out. so now he just. kind of drifts. AI technology is self learning so i believe at this point androids have largely gained sentience and semihumans treat them like one of them alister.... heh. fuck. i really want him to be an antagonist actually but a kind of misunderstood one. he's definitely the root of everything. he is probably the progenitor of the scourge and is a human mind implanted into a fully silicon body. who KNOWS how old he is in actuality he was a sick, dying child whose experimental treatment went horribly wrong but this silicon body is stronger, faster, better. he feels no pain anymore. he can walk and run. but he's also immortal. and he can't be with humans bc contact with him is toxic humans with weak resistances died immediately once the plague started. so all the humans left are those who resisted full corruption they went after the source of the plague, intending to kill to stop its spread but even when they did get to alister, they couldnt kill him and boy they tried! took him into labs and did horrible things! some succumbed to the plague from overexposure to him but nothing seemed to stop Alister decided he had enough, killed everyone in a haze, left, then decided to make silicon lifeforms he was lonely! all of them are precious to him and every time a hunter kills one, he mourns semihumans who become fully or mostly corrupted he considers part of his family too GOD I COULD MAKE AND PORT SO MANY OCS cade is about 60-70% corrupted. he's definitely in alister's ranks i gotta think tho bc i do want one pure human with the net terminal gene. probably hidden somewhere in one of those cryosomething freeze tanks idk if i have an oc pure enough to fit the role i gotta check my roster TO EXPLAIN THIS. you need the gene to access the netsphere the netsphere is like an evolved form of the internet that's sort of like heaven and also controls some things in base reality, like the robots that are in charge of automated construction of new structures- these have gone haywire which led to uncontrolled growth this is just canon material but my addition is that once alister went full silicon, he also unintentionally became connected to the netsphere without any real authority to do anything, but the system still detected a breach and it locked Everyone out after alister infected them originally only those of pure genetic pedigrees possessed the net gene haha i love caste systems but now they're all fucking Dead. i imagine life wasn't GREAT before the scourge but it was better than a semi-post-post scarcity environment where some places are uninhabitable so you have silicon life out hunting humans to protect alister, or just for territory, and security systems that have been tripped and now safeguards are running around killing everything that moves safeguards are like antivirus programs but like. in base reality

GOD ALISTER GROWN UP BUT LIKE EVIL AESTHETIC. ALL BLACK EVERYTHING. he definitely has morphing skills, he can connect himself to technology and easily control it bc hes not organic, innocent boy is now twisted and sitting on his throne of black, corrupted human bones truthfully though alister just... wants to successfully turn more humans into silicon so he can make friends and be happy it's sad that they don't usually survive. hundreds of years of loneliness dulled his moral compass the silicon close to him feel like they're not enough they are hideous but fully sentient and intelligent with the same emotions as humans but ig to alister it's not the same. he still loves them but. he truly was human in the past in the end silicon can't truly replace flesh alex... is a high level safeguard with sentience unlike the low level automated ones that attack everything fuck ALEX OF ALL MY OCS TAKES THE PLACE OF KILLY IN CANON THE FUCK he'd probably operate differently tho. way more compassion

"once i find the net terminal gene, most likely the system will begin to purge all impurities. any and all corrupted will likely die. ... but i see no reason to shorten the life of a man already dead." this includes the humans with resistances. people like rey, ray, keith all resistant humans are <50% corrupted. they cannot be allowed to live bc there is a chance exposure to toxic materials or alister will continue the process but i think alex would change his mind and try to find a way to cure it using the net terminal gene he makes friends with the bounty hunting group, aka keith and the twins... and eventually they will find dom and. oh god what if dom is 80+ percent corrupted what if they have to put her down I AM MAKING MYSELF UPSET

BUT FUCK IT WPULD BE A GOOD CATALYST FOR ALEX TO CHANGE HIS MIND ABOUT LETTING ALL THE CORRUPTED DIE AHHHHH also alex in an all black suit with a little cyan neck ribbon I LOVE MY OCS SORRY I ALSO LOVE BLAME AND SCIFI FUCK ME UP anyway i think im done for now but ughghfjgh im thinking about this for days

#ray #rey #notes

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thomasroach · 5 years

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Fire Emblem Three Houses Student Choices And Consequences Guide

When you become a teacher in Fire Emblem Three Houses, you will start to get choices as you speak with your students. Some will raise you points with them, while others will lower your points with them. Check out this Fire Emblem Three Houses student choices and consequences guide.

Black Eagles Students

Linhardt

I Could Forget About My Assignment

That’s not a good idea He just says yeah and yawns.

Now I am feeling sleeping too He says yeah and you get some points with him.

He Inhales Entire Plates Of Food

Sound’s unhealthy He agrees and says good luck handling it. Points here.

He must have a healthy appetite Linhardt will call him a goat and you get no points.

I Hope The Saints coffins Were Not Damaged

They didn’t Points here.

One might’ve been scratched He will be upset that he can’t get into the Mausoleum, no points.

I Have A Question

This is a question you might get after a lecture from Linhardt. He will ask you about if he should sleep during boring topics during class or not.

No need to fight it. You can’t help it This is the answer he is looking for.

Caspar

jQuery(document).ready(function() { jQuery('div.sc_accordion').accordion({ header: "h5", collapsible: true, heightStyle: "content", active: 0 }); });

I Could Take You Though

Not A Chance Caspar says with enough training he will beat you someday, and you get points with him.

Probably Caspar says you should work on your self confidence if you are planning to be a professor.

Says I Am Gonna Choke Or Something

It’s not safe to eat so quickly Caspar gets upset that you don’t agree with him and you get no points.

When you are busy there’s no alternative He is glad you agree and you get points for him.

I Do Not Think I could Choose A Side

Even if there’s a clear guilty party? Caspar says he’d be a good judge of that and you get no points.

We can’t allow a Hero’s Relic to be stolen Points here.

Ferdinand

jQuery(document).ready(function() { jQuery('div.sc_accordion').accordion({ header: "h5", collapsible: true, heightStyle: "content", active: 0 }); });

If You Would Like To Take Notes

I’m not taking notes He says all right, and starts listing them off anyways.

I’m ready He will say alright and go over the houses.

When he says he is more talented than anyone in his class.

I look forward to that He will be happy and say that there is nothing he cannot achieve, this one gives you points.

That sounds like wishful thinking He will say that there is nothing he can’t achieve.

I Abdhor Those Like Lord Lonato

He must have his reasons Ferdinand will say that you have a kind soul and apologize, but you get no points.

I Hope no one is hurt He says you have a kind soul, but this time you get points.

May I Ask?

This is when Ferdinad asks you about finding new weapons in this area.

Ask the knights to show you some weapons This is the right choice and will raise his morale and points with you.

Ferdinad Would Like To Speak With You

This is what you get when you rank up with Ferdinand. Answer the questions how you want and after your rank will go up to C.

Where She Might Have Wandered Off to

Perhaps she went looking for treats Points.

To the greenhouse, for some flowers? No points.

Bernadetta

Im Not Doing Anything

It’s not good to just do nothing She will say that she isn’t bothering anybody and you get no points.

Hey, what’s this cake doing out here? She will get excited for a minute then say that you are cruel, netting you some points.

Checking On Bernadetta

This is the event that happens when your support rank with her goes up to C.

Im Not Secretly Eating Cake

I can sense it She will call you out and you get no points.

I’ll take your word for it Points here.

Dorothea

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Have You Seen My Cloth?

Let’s search for it She will say um ok, but nothing happens.

I’ll tell Manuela Dorothea will thank you and you will get points for her.

Were You Watching That?

This is when you rank up with Dorothea. There are five choices, but none of them give or take away points. Pick what you want and after you will be rank C with Dorothea.

Depending On Who Died Its Different

What do you mean? She will say I hope nothing bad happens this month and you get no points.

It is different if it is someone you lost She says the same thing, but you get points with this choice.

Dorothea B Support Rank

When you and Dorothea hit Rank B Support you will get this convo.

Petra

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Too Hot Or Too Cold Weather?

The Cold Petra will agree and be happy, netting you some points.

The Heat Petra will say she prefers the cold.

I Have Also Been Targetted In The Past

How frightening Petra talk about good sniper spots in a tower, no points.

I’m happy you survived Petra says the same thing either way, but you get points with this one.

Petra Would Like To Speak With You

This the support rank up for Petra. The only choice that gives points is the one about her marks. Tell her you want to see them and she will be happy.

Petra B Rank Support

When you get Petra to support rank B she will have a convo with you. Choices don’t matter since there are no points here.

Hubert

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I Prefer Not To Consider Such A Gruesome Scenario

Of course not He will call you calm and you get points.

Frightening thought He will say is is that easy to get under your skin, huh? No points.

Hubert Wants To Speak With You

This is Hubert’s rank up.

Edelgard

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Edelgard Would Like To Speak With You

You get a glimpse into Edelgard’s past here, but there are no points to be earned.

Golden Deer Students

Felix

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Do You Want Something?

I was hoping to spar with you He says he can’t right now and you get points with him.

Nothing in particular He says then get out of his way.

Rapael

Strength Or Skill?

Strength He will say he knew you would agree with him, and you get points.

Skill Raphael says that he thinks strength wins out in the end, no points here.

What Do You Think Professor?

You may be right Raphael is happy with this answer and you get points.

I don’t think so Raphael will say oh come on, and you get no points.

How Important Can That Stuff Really Be?

It’s very important Raphael says he doesn’t care that he has no crest, and you get no points.

I’m not sure Points here.

Hilda

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I Am Busy So Make It Quick

You don’t look busy to me Hilda will be surprised you can tell, but you don’t get any points.

If you are busy, never mind She will ask if you are sure and then be relived, points here.

One Thing After Another

I believe so Hilda will say she is just kidding and you get points.

Maybe. Maybe not No points.

Lysithea

Have You Gone To The Library Yet?

Do you like books? He says it isn’t the books but the knowledge and you gain points with her.

You should get some rest She doesn’t care much for being treated like a child.

She Appears Young...

Maybe she’s lived a very sheltered life Points.

Maybe she’s actually a ghost No points

Ignatz

Feels Like I Am visiting Those Places Myself

You should visit them in person Ignatz said that he would like to, but doesn’t get many chances to travel.

You can learn so much from books He will agree and you will get points.

Talking About Art

Do you know a lot about art? He says he sees alot of art since he is form a merchant family, no points.

Do you like art? He will say that he likes art a lot and you get points.

Im Worried About Her

You think she’d be easily deceived? Points.

Do you have feelings for Flayn? No points.

Marianne

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Do You Need Something?

I came to see the horses She will be excited that you like horses because she does as well. Bonus points for this answer.

I am just looking around She will say I see and that she won’t bother you then. No points here.

I Never Though Such Forces Could Exist

It makes sense that the church has enemies She will say she doesn’t understand why people dislike the church. No points.

We only know a small part of this world She will say that is true and you will get points.

Leonie

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Do You Think I Can Be A Top Tier Mercenary?

That depends on how hard you work She says that she will work harder than all the nobles, but you get no points.

You really want to bring in the money huh? She will say that she does, but it also about honor and you will get points.

I Want To Help In Anyway I Can

I don’t know This choice gives you points.

Why don’t you ask him yourself? She will say that she does, but it also about honor and you will get points.

Meet With Leonie

This is when you get C Rank for Leonie. None of the choices get you extra points, you just learn more about her.

Lorenz

Perhaps This Is Not A Kidnapping

That’s possible Points here.

I don’t think so No points.

Blue Lion Students

Ashe

And Herbs I never Knew Existed

I’ve never had much interest in plants Ashe says that is normal and they all looked to the same to him before he studied them as well.

You seem well informed on the subject He says that his father is the real expert, and you gain points with Ashe.

I Am Sorry Professor

There’s nothing to be done He will say thank you, and you get no points.

Pull yourself together He will say thank you, and you will get points.

The Work Of Evil Spirits

Maybe it was No points.

Then it could be the same culprit Points here.

Sylvain

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Have You Seen Felix?

I saw him near the training hall Sylvain will say of course and thank you, you also get points with him.

I saw him at the dining hall He will say thanks for the info and you get no points.

I have a question

Bring along a snack, just in case This motivates her the most and will give you some extra exp.

Flayn Might Have Eloped

Quite an insensitive joke No points.

Is that a possibility? Points here.

Mercedes

Did You Come To Pray To The Goddess?

That’s right She will be happy and ask to pray together, points here.

I did not She will be shocked and suggest you both pray since you are here together, but nothing comes of it.

Annette

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Sweet Or Spicy?

Sweet She will be happy and say same and you gain points with her.

Spicy She will say your tastes are so mature and you get no points.

I have a question

Bring along a snack, just in case This motivates her the most and will give you some extra exp.

Do You Think Flayn is...

We can’t rule it out Points I don’t believe so No points

Teachers/Staff

Alois

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Going Out For A Mission

Good Luck He will say I don’t need luck and you will get points.

Be Careful Alois will kind of freak out and start talking about ghosts, no points though.

Do You Really Think She Was Kidnapped?

She must have been Points here.

There must be another explanation No points.

You Cant Think I Did That!

Did you find anything in the pond? Alois says he was too scared to even look.

I hear she was always yelling at you Alois claims she yells because of his dumb jokes.

Jeritza

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Care To Duel?

A duel? He will say he just wanted to spar and the convo will end.

To the death? He will say he just wanted to spar and the convo will end.

I Desire Fresh Air

That’s not like you He will say true and give you the mission.

The wind feels nice He will say hmph and give you a mission.

Rhea

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Something I can Help You With?

I wonder how the students are taking to me She will say you seem to be getting along well with the kids, show more confidence.

About the teachings of Serios Rhea will give a brief description and you will get points with her.

Were You Worried About My Safety?

I was worried Rhea will say she is alright, but your concern makes her happy. Points here.

The enemy could have other objectives Rhea will say that she is aware of the possibility, and you get no points.

I Have Looked Everywhere

You’re searching too? No points.

We will find her together. Rhea will say that she is aware of the possibility, and you get no points.

Seteth

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Some Individuals Making Advanced Towards Flayn

Not at all He will be happy with this answer and ask you to let him know if anyone gets close to Flayn. Points here.

Actually… Seteth will ask you to let him know if anyone is getting close to Flayn.

Procuring Some Supplies For Flayn

Did you encounter any danger He will say you don’t have to worry about him, but you get points.

What supplies? He will say basic stuff, don’t worry about it. No Points.

How Are You Handling The Sword?

No problems Points here.

...

I will find her. I swear it Points here. Try not to worry No points.

Procuring Some Supplies For Flayn

Did you encounter any danger He will say you don’t have to worry about him, but you get points.

What supplies? He will say basic stuff, don’t worry about it. No Points.

Catherine

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Here to train?

That’s an overstatement. I’m just me. She will say that you sound like a hard worker and smile, but you get no points.

That’s right. I’m a force of nature. Catherine said maybe the gossip is wrong since hard working people don’t make a fuss about it. No points.

In This Nervous State I might Cut You Down

Please don’t She will laugh and say it was a joke, no points.

I dare you to try She will say it was a joke and you get points.

Catherine Support Rank C

When you up your support rank with Catherine you will have a convo with her. No points here.

What Would Make You Suspect Him?

The mask he wears is suspicious No points. I heard he goes out every night Points here.

Cyril

I Am A Little Busy

Oh, sorry He will point you to the greenhouse and get back to work.

Can’t we just talk a little Cyril says that he really can’t talk right now, but you get relationship points with this choice.

Please Dont Let Her Down

Of course not He will say he hopes you mean that, and you get points.

We’ll see Cyril will say he is watching you, no points.

Shamir

Try Aimless Wandering

I was thinking about the enemies objective Shamir will ask if you even know who the enemies is, and you get points.

I’m not looking for anything She will say sure and you don’t get points.

Find Me Suspicious?

You’re not from Fodlan She says true and asks what your point is?

What did you do before coming to the monastery She will give you some insight into what she was doing.

Sothis

A Heros Relic

Do you know something? She will say how could she know? And you get some points with her.

It represents great power Sothis will say quite so and you get no points.

Manuela

If You Can Keep Them Going Then I Will Too

I will protect them Points here.

I will try my best No points, no response.

Gilbert

When First Meeting Him

Aren’t you too formal? He will say it is his nature, no points.

It’s a pleasure to meet you Points here.

Unique Situation?

Your true identity? Gilbert will tell you that he was once a a knight in a royal family.

Do you mean Annette? He will talk about his days as a knight.

Hanneman

Objective Professional

Excitement is understandable He will talk about the scandal and you get no points.

I respect your self control Points here.

A Fool. Thats Who

Is her Crest rare enough to justify kidnapping? Points here.

You have already investigated her thoroughly No points.

Tomas

Might I Ask Your Reasons?

Why were you asking about Flayn? Tomas says he has worked her a long time, but Flayn is new.

Why were you asking about my father? He will say he knew him and talks a bit about Jeralt.

Jeralt

She Was Carrying Something

Jeritza’s mask? Jeralt says he isn’t close to the guy so he can’t say for sure.

Flayns mask? Jeralt will ask if you are well since there is no Flayn mask.

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Fire Emblem Three Houses Guides

Posted 1 hour ago by Johnny Hurricane in Fire Emblem Three Houses Guides, Game Guides

Fire Emblem Three Houses Side Quest Guide

Fire Emblem Three Houses has plenty of side quests that you can do for extra money and exp. Some of these quests are simple, and others can be tricky. Check out this Fire Emblem Three Houses side

Posted 1 hour ago by Johnny Hurricane in Fire Emblem Three Houses Guides, Game Guides

Fire Emblem Three Houses Gift Giving Guide

In order to improve your relationship with people in Fire Emblem Three Houses, you can give them gifts. Sometimes they like a gift and accept, other times they don’t like a gift and take it anyways

Posted 1 hour ago by Johnny Hurricane in Fire Emblem Three Houses Guides, Game Guides

Fire Emblem Three Houses Choices And Consequences Guide

Fire Emblem Three Houses has a ton of choices for you to make throughout the game. Some of these have obvious consequences and others, not so much. Check out this Fire Emblem Three Houses choices and

Posted 1 hour ago by Johnny Hurricane in Fire Emblem Three Houses Guides, Game Guides

Fire Emblem Three Houses Student Likes And Dislikes Guide

Recruiting new students in Fire Emblem Three Houses can be tricky. You need to know what a student likes and what they dislike in order to get them quicker. Check out this Fire Emblem Three Houses

The post Fire Emblem Three Houses Student Choices And Consequences Guide appeared first on GamersHeroes.

Fire Emblem Three Houses Student Choices And Consequences Guide published first on https://juanaframi.tumblr.com/

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survivorsentinelislands · 8 years

Text

EPISODE 8: IS IT REALLY BACKSTABBING IF I WAS NEVER ACTUALLY WORKING WITH YOU? ~Keegan

John's out. Fuck.

And the first thing Logan says is "JOSH <3" like bitch I've been working Josh and he knows you were working him over pre-swap like the manipulative person you are. You've literally gotten out all my friends and I'm not about to let it happen again.

Omg! We merged! I'm so happy! I have 2 strong 5 person alliances (3 of the same people in both) I'm in a damn good spot

darians being messy messy messy!

adding like 80 people to alliances and making some is gonna do nothing but put a target on his back, but he'll be a nice shield.

i dont know how i wanna move forward, but darian, sam, and ned seem favorable? i love logan but i know logan and darian arent rlly friends so theyll target each other. who knows. i just hope im in a good position.

LMAO PLUS I TOOK THE IDOL CLUE NVM i dont need to worry about voting, but i want immunity and an idol hopefully

Finally a merge! This has been a long time coming! A lot of interesting things have been happening and it's only been a couple hours.

First, the Old NuAnadaman now has an alliance chat. DARIAN, ALEX, JOSH, CARSON and myself are all part of it, which is super awesome.

Then there's the Old Andaman alliance chat, with SAM, NED, DARIAN, CARSON and myself.

And I talked with SAM who's in an alliance chat with SARA, DAISY and LOGAN.

That's literally every person in the game I have some sort of connection with. Like holy crap, when does that ever happen?? For the time being, I'm not on anybodies hit list. Which is fantastic but also having connections to everyone means that no matter who I vote for, someone is going to be upset. That's not necessarily a bad thing, particularly in the case of SARA, DAISY, LOGAN, ALEX or JOSH. I've never had an actual alliance with them, so I won't feel bad backstabbing any or all of them. Is it really backstabbing if I was never actually working with you?

SAM and NED are the only two people in the game I won't backstab. SAM in particular since we've been decently close since the very beginning. That would make a fine final 3.

What I need to consider is how to get us there, without causing suspicion from other people, DARIAN in particular. He has an idol, and just gave up his vote at the next tribal for an idol clue, so he could potentially have two idols going forward.

Ideally, I'd like to vote out JOSH or ALEX next. While that will unfortunately give SARA, DAISY and LOGAN a bit more power, it also ensure that the original Andaman have a clear lead. After that we can pick off people one by one.

I'm starting to think too far ahead and that's not great.

Whew. So merge happened. I'm excited to see what happens next. I'm glad John is gone, he really had to go. Especially since at this last tribal he kept throwing out everyone's names. We heard him say everyone except for Sam. Now I'm excited to get the game going. I'm nervous people might see Logan and I as a threat since we have such a strong alliance and since we gained a bit of power after Logan played their idol near the beginning of the game. Also, our alliance w the rest of our tribe isn't as strong as it is just between the two of us and I feel like people like Sam and Sara could easily switch, especially since Sara has voted against us in the past. But I'm going to try to stay positive. Logan and I are bringing each other to the end, and I think we can get there.

An interesting choice has arisen. LOGAN, SARA and DAISY are a tight threesome, and they believe SAM is on their side. They are either targeting ALEX or DARIAN. Now, ideally they would target ALEX and he would be gone, giving the OG Andaman's the majority lead. However, it's looking like they might want to go after DARIAN.

So SAM and I brainstormed some plans, where the OG Andaman all vote ALEX, which would give five votes to him, probably three or four votes to DARIAN and maybe one or two to LOGAN, sending ALEX home. However, DARIAN told me he got the idol clue, which means his vote will be randomized at tribal.

Unless one of LOGAN, DAISY or SARA grabbed the idol clue as well, our plan might not work out too great. It could end up being a four-four tie between DARIAN and ALEX. I'm not sure we could gather the support to get out ALEX on the revote.

So I guess as it currently stands, we either need to vote out LOGAN or hope DARIAN wins immunity so we can actually get the numbers to vote out ALEX. I think no matter where the votes fall, I'll be safe for a while. I've got a good safety net with SAM, NED and DARIAN.

Also, my original plans of being a villain are probably going to be set aside for a little while, maybe until another game. I'm in too good of a position to throw it all away trying to be sneaky.

BITCHES I MADE JURY /AGAIN/ IM HERE FOR IT. Buttttt I'm going to win. So darian straight up asking me in class if im going for him is SUS as FUCK. But idc! I said maybe and he told me "lol alex said you wouldn't trust him lol" and stuff like that and was like "lol wish i could say the same" when i only said maybe to me going after him? Like

bitch

ofc im going tf after you. im here to win, and you are violent and rude and im not taking a lower placement than a messy playa like yOU

DARIAN shared the immunity idol clue with me. I'm kind of surprised he did but I guess he thinks we're ride or die together. I'm not going to complain or correct him; it's nice to have people wanting to go to the end with me.

Looking in the forest was highly unsuccessful, maybe next time I'll find something good. I still have my extra vote to use. I may end up using it at this coming tribal, depending on how it looks like the votes are going to go. I'd rather save it for a while though.

The immunity challenge is a flag making challenge, which is pretty awesome in my opinion. I like making things. I've already got one draft of a flag done, I'll sit on it for a few hours and see how I feel about it later tonight. It's not due for another day and a half so there's plenty of time.

Winning immunity would be great. My name probably isn't going to come up at all, so it's not like I need it but on the off chance this coming vote turns to rocks, I'll be safe. Plus who doesn't want to win immunity?

Okay whew, merge happened! Thanks Drew, my fave sadistic bastard <3 Unfortunately, first immunity is flag making and uh I'd rather fuck myself with glass. IM COLORBLIND. DREW INFORMS ME THE COLOR IS DARK BLUE AND TO JUST WORK WITH THAT AND IM LIKE DREW PLEASE, BLUE IS GRAY AND GREEN IS PUKE AND AND PURPLE IS DUSKY RED. DONT DO THIS TO ME. RUDE.

Anyway I'm gonna lose and go home byyyyeeee

Well, I lost the immunity challenge, which I don't think is a huge deal. But unfortunately, ALEX won which kind of is a big deal.

SAM told me that LOGAN and DAISY both want DARIAN out, which sucks since along with SARA that's a guaranteed three votes going to DARIAN. It's possible that JOSH is in on that plan as well pushing it to four votes.

Since DARIAN gave away his vote for an idol clue, that means the SAM, NED, CARSON and myself have to stick together to potentially tie the other foursome. We could probably get ALEX on our side quite easily, pushing that to five but I really don't want to have to rely on ALEX.

I talked with LOGAN as well, and if they're to be believed, we have a mutual agreement to not vote each other this tribal. Do I trust them? With SAM's info, yeah I do. At least for this tribal.

The one good thing about this situation is that Darian does have a hidden immunity idol. It may be in his best interest to play it this vote, just to be safe. Whether or not he trusts me enough to listen to my advice.... well that remains to be seen.

So basically, Darian is the target of everyone from Nicobar tribe, plus Josh who has flipped to us. Darian thinks that I was an outsider pre-merge, and that the last vote came between me and John, and that I'm lucky to be here, etc. He also thinks Logan has an idol, so they're probably gonna try to flush it and split the votes. He thinks I'm voting for Logan, and now he's trying to convince Logan to flip and vote for me, since he thinks that them and everyone else from Nicobar doesn't like me. It looks like old Andaman is trying to split the vote between Logan and I in order to flush the idol, and then get one of us out. What we really need is to know that Sara is still 100% with us. She's being very quiet, which makes me nervous. She only ever speaks in the tribe chat and not in the alliance chat, despite it saying that she's been active very recently. Which makes me wonder if she's already flipped. If she has, at best they split it between Logan and I and then its 3 - 3 - 4, and Darian is still gone but we can't trust Sara. At worst, Sara tells them that Logan and I are a strong alliance, and they go 6 - 4 and I'm gone. So basically, the outcome of this next tribal comes down to Sara, who hasn't answered my messages in a while. Fuck.

I have missed Keegan so much

Also Darian is literally a dumbassjflkjhfsd

I literally can't believe how dumb he is

Like I have seen crappy game play

And I have seen some dumb ass moves

And plenty of times when you just think "why would you say that?" But man I have NEVER seen anyone this stupid

If we had the extra numbers I would just say deal with it and let his ass go

Idol in his pocket and everything

But we don't

So I must deal

whew honestly

Just so you know

Also Darian Blows my mind

Like I know just went on about how dumb he is

But he got dumber

Ok.

Yay we are at final 10

Alexander won immunity. And right off the bat things got weird

Daisy approached me about needing to find a person to vote for because she on the outs of her old tribe But she has to vote by 6pm. So I told her Logan I started planning against Logan Until Logan approached me to start planning against daisy So I'm confused

Then Ned and Sam tell me that they are going to go with the nicobar people and convince them to vote me out. So I'll be able to play my idol and be able to take out one of their key players

And they will stay trusted for another week which will help us make our moves.

So I just told the hosts that I am playing my idol on myself

So I'm going to be the first to say

Congrats on a guaranteed f9 woooo no one else feels as safe as i do

I don't even know what is going to happen but it's not be

I'm also not voting thanks to that idol clue

Ugh

Tonight's going to be interesting

well this round has been crazy so far! darian makes 83 alliances and goes insane.

____

logan's apparently saying my name soooo fuck that

____-

logan walked

As bad as it seems, Logan quitting wasn't that bad. They tried to mend things with me; they stated that they wanted Nehe out because he wouldn't refer to them by their preferred pronouns. I'm using them to be respectful but I've never liked they/them because it's gramatically weird and that's the only reason.

I did win immunity, and it was cut short by Logan quitting. But I definitely redeemed myself with the flags from the first episode :P So I can die happy.

LOGAN has walked from the game due to personal reasons. I hope everything is okay with them. Even though I didn't have any intention of actually working with them, they were a lovely person to talk with. I wish them all the best in whatever they're dealing with.

However, they also makes this game a little bit easier. We no longer have to worry about this clusterfuck of a tribal. I honestly have no clue what was even going on with it. Half the tribes names were coming up and people were switching votes and wanting to play idols.

It would have been interesting to see what would have happened but at least OG Andaman has the majority. We can potentially ride this all the way to final 5.

I already miss Logan crying irl

I'm so shook that I made merge in a game that I didn't know I was playing until it started

im sorry

#fatdipofthatguac

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ubizheroes · 8 years

Text

The Moz 2016 Annual Report

Posted by SarahBird

I have a longstanding tradition of boring Moz readers with our exhaustive annual reports (2012, 2013, 2014, 2015).

If you’re avoiding sorting the recycling, going to the gym, or cleaning out your closet, I have got a *really* interesting post that needs your attention *right now*.

(Yeah. I know it’s March. But check this out, I had pneumonia in Jan/Feb so my life slid sideways for a while.)

Skip to your favorite parts:

Part 1: TL;DR

Part 2: Achievements unlocked

Part 3: Oh hai, elephant. Oh hai, room.

Part 4: More wood, fewer arrows

Part 5: Performance (metrics vomit)

Part 6: Inside Moz HQ

Part 7: Looking ahead

Part 1: TL;DR

We closed out 2016 with more customers and revenue than 2015. Our core SEO products are on a roll with frequent, impactful launches.

The year was not all butterflies and sunshine, though. Some of our initiatives failed to produce the results we needed. We made some tough calls (sunsetting some products and initiatives) and big changes (laying off a bunch of folks and reallocating resources). On a personal level, it was the most emotionally fraught time in my career.

Thank the gods, our hard work is paying off. Moz ended the year cashflow, EBITDA, and net income profitable (on a monthly basis), and with more can-do spirit than in years past. In fact, in the month of December we added a million dollars cash to the business.

We’re completely focused on our mission to simplify SEO for everyone through software, education, and community.

Part 2: Achievements unlocked

It blows my mind that we ended the year with over 36,000 customers from all over the world. We’ve got brands and agencies. We’ve got solopreneurs and Fortune 500s. We’ve got hundreds of thousands of people using the MozBar. A bunch of software companies integrate with our API. It’s humbling and awesome. We endeavor to be worthy of you!

We were very busy last year. The pace and quality of development has never been better. The achievements captured below don’t come even close to listing everything. How many of these initiatives did you know about?

Part 3: Oh hai, elephant. Oh hai, room.

When a few really awful things happen, it can overshadow the great stuff you experience. That makes this a particularly hard annual report to write. 2016 was undoubtedly the most emotionally challenging year I’ve experienced at Moz.

It became clear that some of our strategic hypotheses were wrong. Pulling the plug on those projects and asking people I care deeply about to leave the company was heartbreaking. That’s what happened in August 2016.

As Tolstoy wrote, “Happy products are all alike; every unhappy product is unhappy in its own way.” The hard stuff happened. Rehashing what went wrong deserves a couple chapters in a book, not a couple lines in a blog post. It shook us up hard.

And *yet*, I am determined not to let the hard stuff take away from the amazing, wonderful things we accomplished and experienced in 2016. There was a lot of good there, too.

Smarter people than me have said that progress doesn’t happen in a straight line; it zigs and zags. I’m proud of Mozzers; they rise to challenges. They lean into change and find the opportunity in it. They turn their compassion and determination up to 11. When the going gets tough, the tough get going.

I’ve learned a lot about Moz and myself over the last year. I’m taking all those learnings with me into the next phase of Moz’s growth. Onwards.

Part 4: More wood, fewer arrows

At the start of 2016, our hypothesis was that our customers and community would purchase several inbound marketing tools from Moz, including SEO, local SEO, social analytics, and content marketing. The upside was market expansion. The downside was fewer resources to go around, and a much more complex brand and acquisition funnel.

By trimming our product lines, we could reallocate resources to initiatives showing more growth potential. We also simplified our mission, brand, and acquisition funnel.

It feels really good to be focusing on what we love: search. We want to be the best place to learn and do SEO.

Whenever someone wonders how to get found in search, we want them to go to Moz first. We aspire to be the best in the world at the core pillars of SEO: rankings, keywords, site audit and optimization, links, location data management.

SEO is dynamic and complex. By reducing our surface area, we can better achieve our goal of being the best. We’re putting more wood behind fewer arrows.

Part 5: Performance (metrics vomit)

Check out the infographic view of our data barf.

We ended the year at ~$42.6 million in gross revenue, amounting to ~12% annual growth. We had hoped for better at the start of the year. Moz Pro is still our economic engine, and Local drives new revenue and cashflow.

Gross profit margin increased a hair to 74%, despite Moz Local being a larger share of our overall business. Product-only gross profit margin is a smidge higher at 76%. Partner relationships generally drag the profit margin on that product line.

Our Cost of Revenue (COR) went up in raw numbers from the previous year, but it didn’t increase as much as revenue.

Total Operating Expenses came to about ~$41 million. Excluding the cost of the restructure we initiated in August, the shape and scale of our major expenses has remained remarkably stable.

We landed at -$5.5 million in EBITDA, which was disappointingly below our plan. We were on target for our budgeted expenses. As we fell behind our revenue goals, it became clear we’d need to right-size our expenses to match the revenue reality. Hence, we made painful cuts.

I’m happy/relieved/overjoyed to report that we were EBITDA positive by September, cashflow positive by October, and net income positive by November. Words can’t express how completely terrible it would have been to go through what we all went through, and *not* have achieved our business goals.

My mind was blown when we actually added a million in cash in December. I couldn’t have dared to dream that… Ha ha! They won’t all be like that! It was the confluence of a bunch of stuff, but man, it felt good.

Part 6: Inside MozHQ

Thanks to you, dear reader, we have a thriving and opinionated community of marketers. It’s a great privilege to host so many great exchanges of ideas. Education and community are integral to our mission. After all, we were a blog before we were a tech company. Traffic continues to climb and social keeps us busy. We love to hear from you!

We added a bunch of folks to the Moz Local, Moz.com, and Customer Success teams in the last half of the year. But our headcount is still lower than last year because we asked a lot of talented people to leave when we sunsetted a bunch of projects last August. We’re leaner, and gaining momentum.

Moz is deeply committed to making tech a more inclusive industry. My vision is for Moz to be a place where people are constantly learning and doing their best work. We took a slight step back on our gender diversity gains in 2016. Ugh. We’re not doing much hiring in 2017, so it’s going to be challenging to make substantial progress. We made a slight improvement in the ratio of underrepresented minorities working at Moz, which is a positive boost.

The tech industry has earned its reputation of being unwelcoming and myopic.

Mozzers work hard to make Moz a place where anyone could thrive. Moz isn’t perfect; we’re human and we screw up sometimes. But we pick ourselves up, dust off, and try again. We continue our partnership with Ada Academy, and we’ve deepened our relationship with Year Up. One of my particular passions is partnering with programs that expose girls and young women to STEM careers, such as Ignite Worldwide, Techbridge, and BigSisters.

I’m so proud of our charitable match program. We match Mozzer donations 150% up to $3k. Over the years, we’ve given over half a million dollars to charity. In 2016, we gave over $111,028 to charities. The ‘G’ in TAGFEE stands for ‘generous,’ and this is one of the ways we show it.

One of our most beloved employee benefits is paid, PAID vacation. We give every employee up to $3,000 to spend on his or her vacation. This year, we spent over half a million dollars exploring the world and sucking the marrow out of life.

Part 7: Looking ahead

Dear reader, I don’t have to tell you that search has been critical for a long time.

This juggernaut of a channel is becoming *even more* important with the proliferation of search interfaces and devices. Mobile liberated search from the desktop by bringing it into the physical world. Now, watches, home devices, and automobiles are making search ubiquitous. In a world of ambient search, SEO becomes even more important.

SEO is more complicated and dynamic than years past because the number of human interfaces, response types, and ranking signals are increasing. We here at Moz are wild about the complexity. We sink our teeth into it. It drives our mission: Simplify SEO for everyone through software, education, and community.

We’re very excited about the feature and experience improvements coming ahead. Thank you, dear reader, for sharing your feedback, inspiring us, and cheering us on. We look forward to exploring the future of search together.

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viralhottopics · 8 years

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Drew Barrymore ‘I don’t pretend to be perfect’

Drew Barrymore is back on our screens, this time as a flesh-eating estate agent. She tells Rebecca Nicholson about the endless ups and downs of her life from child star to teen rebel, and savvy producer to business woman and explains why shell fight to the death to be happy

Drew Barrymore walks into the hotel room in Berlin flanked by assistants, caked in heavy TV make-up and wrapped in a brown fluffy jacket that makes her look like a very glamorous teddy bear. Within seconds, the entourage has disappeared, shes wiped every last scrap of foundation from her face and shes rummaging around underneath her dress, a kind of earth mother hippy smock, regretting her decision to wear tights on this sub-freezing day. Why does anyone wear pantyhose? she exclaims, barefaced, faux-exasperated, shifting in her armchair, trying to get comfortable. Theyre so fucking sadistic! Theyre not even control pants, she says, conspiratorially, but Im forcing them to be.

For a lot of women, especially women who grew up between 1982 and the early 2000s, Barrymore is a particular kind of icon. Shes the accessible rebel we all wanted to be, or be friends with. Shes the child star of ET who hit the skids early and hard, and not only survived, but went on to be one of the most popular (and bankable) female stars of the past three decades. She appeared in, and often produced, the kinds of movies that are vital viewing for teenagers, from the trashy taboo-busting rebellion of Poison Ivy, to the triumphant high school romcom Never Been Kissed, to the moody angst of Donnie Darko. Plus, in her 20s, she seemed to hang out with the best bands, go to all the best parties and always looked like she was having the time of her life. She was the manic pixie dream girl before it became a tacky indie film stereotype. The memoir she wrote in 2015 is, appropriately, called Wildflower.

She looks genuinely pleased that she holds such a place in peoples minds, and decides that if people do like her, If anyone has any goodwill towards me, careful not to sound arrogant, its because she extends goodwill to other people. Not in an annoying way, but just, like, being in peoples fucking corners. Its this combination of soft and sharp, all wrapped up in that valley girl lilt, that has carried her through life. I want people to be happy, but I know happiness has to be fought for. Its a warrior trophy. Its not hippy, she insists. Im like, fight. Fight to the death to be happy, and dont kill anyone along the way.

Little riot grrrl: Drew Barrymore with Steven Spielberg at the age of five on the set of 1982s ET. Photograph: Everett Collection/Rex Features

Were in Germany to talk about Santa Clarita Diet, the new Netflix series which has brought her back into the spotlight again at 41. Its a warm and occasionally gross 10-part comedy about Sheila and Joel, estate agents who have been together since their school days, and whose marriage is tested when the amiable Sheila develops a sudden taste for human flesh.

I stopped working to have my kids and take care of them and raise them, and so I was nervous about working again, she says. I was going through a dark time in my own life. And then I read it and I liked it. Now what am I supposed to do? I cant do this right now, its terrible timing, my whole life is falling apart. She ended up executive producing it as well as starring.

That her life was falling apart out of the spotlight was a new thing for Barrymore, who had played out most of her life in a very public sphere. No ones talking about my life. I mean, yes, I had a divorce, but even that was real quiet. She split up with actor Will Kopelman, the father of her two children, Olive, four, and Frankie, two, at the beginning of 2016, but recently posted an Instagram of him running the New York marathon; she was there, with their daughters, to support him. It was like, Oh, they didnt work out, I wonder why? Oh my God they seem like such good friends, and so amicable, I guess well stop giving a shit. I was so happy about that, she says, breezily.

Warm and occasionally gross: Barrymore in Santa Clarita Diet. Photograph: Erica Parise/Netflix

In the midst of her divorce, Santa Clarita Diet was a transformative experience. Ironically, it wasnt the worst timing. It was great. It was really happy. It was a good summer. My daughters and I got to go out to California and I got three days off a week. Just as becoming a proto-zombie saves Sheila from the numbing boredom of domestic life, Barrymore went through her own kind of rejuvenation. I feel like Sheila. I feel like maybe I was dead inside, she says cheerfully, blowing her nose. I dont know. I was in a place in my life where I had gained a lot of weight, and been in a place of fear and sadness, and I felt stuck. I dont think thats so much unlike the character.

Until she took time away from acting to have kids, Barrymore had never not worked. She began her career at 11 months in an advert for dog food, quickly becoming the main breadwinner for herself and her mother, Jaid, who raised her alone. Her father John Barrymore, of the Barrymore acting dynasty The great line of loonies from which I come, as she puts it wasnt around much. Her extraordinary youth was public and well-documented. Her breakout role in ET, at five years old, was followed by an outlandish few years of childhood boozing and drug-taking, rehab and institutions, and the sense that, at 14, she was washed up and her career was over.

But it wasnt. She moved into an apartment by herself, got a job in a coffee shop, learned how to do her own laundry and, eventually, clawed her way back into the business, defeating the curse of the child actor where so many others have been lost. She has said her 20s were a kind of delayed adolescence. Now, in her 40s, shes had a lifetimes worth of parties and experiences, and says she doesnt miss it at all. I dont feel like Im not at the centre of things. I dont worry about career stuff. I dont worry about who the hottest band is or that Im not at that show that night. I dont care if the latest trend is happening and its just passing me by.

Star quality: Barrymore with Cameron Diaz and Lucy Liu in Charlies Angels. Photograph: Image Net

Her idea of a good time these days is taking the girls to Disney World, or setting up movie nights for the kids in my daughters class. I just watched Home Alone and all the moms and I were crying at the end. Oh my God, its so good! I appreciate it now much more than I did when I was younger.

Shes too classy to be drawn into any child actor comparisons it would be patronising, annoying, no thanks, she says, nicely but firmly but we talk more broadly about celebrity scandals. Everyone goes up and goes down. Thats life. Nobody wants all of it looked at and discussed. However, if you do put yourself out there, then you need to be prepared for that to be examined and you have to handle it to the best of your abilities. So for people who are like [she puts on a whiny voice]: Dont look at me you put yourself out there!

Is there any way to avoid being examined and discussed? Not in this day and age. You just try to manage things in the healthiest way you can. And by the way? You wont all the time. Youre gonna fuck up. So fuck up, then pick yourself back up. But just be nice and kind and humble and gracious and have a sense of humour. And dont pretend to be perfect.

Golden girl: winning a Golden Globe for Grey Gardens in 2010. Photograph: NBC/Getty Images

Barrymore dealt with her own initial fuck-ups in an incredible and startling memoir, Little Girl Lost, which she wryly calls, The mea culpa book I wrote when I was 14. She appeared on Oprah with her mother to promote it, to go over what went wrong. You can watch it on YouTube; shes 15 going on 35. Yet the book has a cult following, in part because it makes all the partying she did as a young child sound kind of adventurous. Yeah! Its like an 80s cult tragedy book, which is super cool and wrong and fun all at the same time. Its a little riot grrrl, you know?

Theres a chapter where Barrymore describes being hauled off to an institution at her mothers behest, and shes furious at the starstruck guards. God, youve just yanked me out of my house with cuffs on, I thought, and now youre asking me what it was like to meet ET. What jerks, she writes. Even at 14, she had a disdain for celebrity. Still do, she says, today.

We meet on the afternoon of Trumps inauguration. She plans to watch it later, as shes a total news junkie, but she doesnt particularly want to talk about what she thinks of him. Im not a painter and Im not a musician and I think people dont want to hear it from actors, she says. I read this op-ed in the New York Times that was saying, just do things quietly, in your art.

Slasher: Barrymore in Wes Cravens Scream, 1996. Photograph: Allstar

Barrymore is more about the practical. During her screen break, she wrote Wildflower, which became a New York Times bestseller, and shes built a sizeable business empire, including Barrymore wines, a production company, Flower Films, and beauty brand Flower Cosmetics. All of which channel some of that free-spirit warmth into profits reports suggest shes worth $125m. Theres a line in Santa Clarita Diet where Sheila announces: I sleep two hours a night. I get so much done! It struck me that for Barrymore, spinning so many plates, that might be funny. Actually, she says, it was originally written that Sheila would use her spare time to learn French. Me, in my real life, would spend time learning French. This woman literally has a ticking clock on her mortality. Shed be studying fucking Bruce Lee moves and learning to do shit. The line was changed at Barrymores request: instead of learning a language, Sheila would get the ability to parallel park in one move. Im, like, yes! Thats practical!

Its strange to see Barrymore, who seemed to be an eternal teenager, starring as the mother of a teenager in Santa Clarita Diet, partly because her fame is life-long, and you can see interviews with her at almost every age on YouTube. But, she says, she never watches them, never goes back. Hell no. The only thing I ever think when I see myself when Im younger, if Im on a talk show and Im stuck there having to watch clips, is that I was so much more brassy when I was young. Im like: Where do you get the balls, kid?

She says it as if those balls have disappeared with age. She claims shes much more polite now. Sarcastic, but polite. And worse still, she tries to say shes newly dull. In my life Im just so quiet and boring, she declares, not entirely convincingly. This is Drew Barrymore, after all, who talks with the hunger of someone who will always be on the lookout for something new, whether thats being a mother, a businesswoman, or playing a friendly estate agent who kills and eats bad people. I am pretty boring, she insists. I tell her I dont believe it. She smiles slyly, and leans in. Theres a rebel in her still. Im not sure I believe it either.

Santa Clarita Diet launches on Netflix on 3 February