#occam doesn't always have his razor bro

[somecunttookmyurl]

and yes everyone at the time did try and peg this as some trauma response to my my mum dying when i was 6 and therapise me out of it like. cool theory! unfortunately you see i was Like This when she was alive

the very cool not at all annoying thing about having a parental death (or i guess really any singular major traumatic event? probably?) when you're very young is that people will literally blame every problem on that for the rest of your life forever. if you had symptoms syndrome before no you didn't

[killian-whump]

I'm trying so hard not to "cancel" Colin over this whole NFT thing but I don't know if I'll be able to keep loving him. I wish I could believe this was a bad move on his part and that he innocently got duped but I can't help but feel that he knows very well what he's doing and is trying to take advantage of his fans. The way he kept being friends with Michael Coleman and interacting with him on twitter already left a sour taste in my mouth. I think this is the last straw for me and it HURTS

I've spoken about the whole Michael Coleman thing on this blog many times before. I don't want to repeat myself all over again - but I will say that I don't like the guy, I've had bad run-ins with him online, and I believe the allegations made against him are likely true.

That said, I'm not Colin. Colin's knowledge of Coleman is entirely different than mine - he's actually spent a lot of time with the guy, on the show and off, and knows him far better than any of us do. I support Colin's right to make his own decisions about whether he thinks Coleman is guilty or not - and, for that matter, I support his right to maintain the relationship (if there even IS one anymore) even if he thinks the allegations are true.

If anyone wants to know more about my opinions on Coleman or Colin's continued interaction with him, there's plenty to read at the link above - and if you have further questions, go ahead and ask.

Now... for the NFT nonsense.

I mean, ALL of the offensive nonsense has all come from one direction thus far - and I think we all know that's who spearheaded this whole cockamamie plan. Colin's merely a cog in that plan - a cog that grants credibility, a larger platform, and access to an already-existing fanbase.

It's Occam's Razor, Nonny. And as always, follow the money. Or, in this case, follow where the money was intended to go. It was all intended to fund Rothberg's TSR/Xataverse nonsense - which is all NFT bullshit from beginning to end. And look, despite this whole debacle, Colin's not really an NFT Bro. He's not running around with "eth" in his usernames and ugly ass monkeys for pfps. Rothberg, on the other hand, IS a total NFT Bro.

The only thing I think Colin's actually guilty of here is falling for a pitch he shouldn't have - and considering he seems to be the only one around here who did... Well, I said before he had more to lose in this debacle than any of us do, and that's still true. No harm, no foul as far as I'm concerned 🤷‍♀️ I just hope his career recovers from it.

And seriously... he needs to fire a guy. Or hire a guy. I don't even care which. He just... clearly there isn't anyone on his payroll giving him good career advice, because if there was, this wouldn't have happened. Like, there are people whose entire career is helping celebrities not completely fuck things up for themselves. If Colin doesn't have someone like that on his side, he needs to get someone like that on his side so shit like this doesn't happen.

Or, shit, he could just send an anonymous Ask to one of us here on Tumblr - "Hey, what if Colin started selling NFTs?" and see what happens. When we all laugh and say that would be The Worst Thing Ever and A Humungous Failure, maybe don't do that thing.

I dunno, Nonny. For me, the issue isn't whether I'm gonna cancel Colin or stop liking him... it's more like when you're riding on a bus, having a nice time, and then suddenly you realize the bus is being driven by a raccoon.

[janiedean]

'We are not men' was an offhand comment that dany made to missandei, she doesn't really believe that since they are women they are immune to death or some shit, anon should just chill omg. And the prince/princess is confirmed to be genderless from the books, it's not something that d&d invented bc they love dany, actually they know who aar is so it wouldn't surprise me if it's really both jon AND dany

I know it’s from the book but I thought it was a red herring from the moment it happened which is why the whole thing sounded kinda like melisandre wanted to find a way to convince dany but… like… okay listen idk what D&D want to do, but:

grrm usually does a thing which is, ‘when he TELLS YOU SOMETHING REALLY REALLY HARD AND MENTIONS IT ALL THE TIME that thing usually doesn’t happen’.

case: every death not on page and everything cersei says. affc: OH HEY DAVOS IS DEAD HIS HEAD IS HUNG OUTSIDE MANDERLY’S CASTLE adwd: hey bro we killed someone else in your place you’re going to find rickon byadwd: hey mance is dead!jon: …. I’m not sure it’s himadwd: SURPRISE IT WASN’T HIM ACTUALLY!cersei: I’M SURE THIS THIS AND THIS HAPPEN BECAUSE I SAY SOactual reality: all the contrary happensarya: well I left sandor dying on the road he’s definitely a gonermonk on the quiet island: I AM STILL ALIVEarya: sometimes I still hear his voice& so on.

now, never mind tyrion’s sage advice about prophecies (Prophecy is like a half-trained mule. It looks as though it might be useful, but the moment you trust in it, it kicks you in the head). What we have in the text is dany seeing R and elia and the following dialogue happens:

“Aegon. What better name for a king… He is the prince that was promised, and his is the song of ice and fire”; “There must be one more. The dragon has three heads.”

AA prophecy:

There will come a day after a long summer when the stars bleed and the cold breath of darkness falls heavy on the world. In this dread hour a warrior shall draw from the fire a burning sword. And that sword shall be Lightbringer, the Red Sword of Heroes, and he who clasps it shall be Azor Ahai come again, and the darkness shall flee before him

+

When the red star bleeds and the darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone.

+ tpwp prophecy as melisandre & others put it

You are he who must stand against the Other. The one whose coming was prophesied five thousand years ago. The red comet was your herald. You are the prince that was promised, and if you fail the world fails with you.

+

Born amidst salt and smoke, beneath a bleeding star. I know the prophecy. Not that I would trust it.

+

Stannis Baratheon is Azor Ahai come again, the warrior of fire. In him the prophecies are fulfilled. The red comet blazed across the sky to herald his coming, and he bears Lightbringer, the red sword of heroes.

now, either you think that AA is a red herring and tptwp is the real deal or you think tptwp = AA, the prophecies say exactly the same shit about either, so it’s a lot more likely that AA is tptwp and/or viceversa, or that AA is a red herring but tptwp is not. that stated, in order:

prophecies can’t be trusted 100% and no one interprets them well, which is what tyrion’s implying and what everyone does in these books since until now no one’s ever manage to understand one correctly

if GRRM tells you that someone is SOMETHING without immediate proof/verification, he’s most probably lying or red herring you around

R has elements from which he could deduce that if he didn’t have three children for three dragons the long night would come, which was why he started getting ready for it and was that bent on having three children. now, what is he saying in that vision? that AEGON is tptwp. now, as per above, if R thinks aegon is tptwp he’s definitely wrong because aegon is not and whether the one with jonc is fake or not (I think not) he is not AA or twptw. one out. rhaenys is dead, regardless. and what was R’s deal? getting the third head of the dragon in the world… for which he started a civil war. ops. let’s leave it one moment. anyway, R’s prophecy says for sure three things: the apocalypse is coming, you’ll need three dragons to stop it with three riders who should all be targs, and one of his children is AA/tptwp.

obviously, we could say that dany works anyway because she’s a targ so maybe R’s prophecy was wrong. which is most probably half true, because dany’s of course one of the heads of the dragon. but, she isn’t tptwp. why?

because she’s already been brought up by the narrative and everyone that the narrative explicitly brought up is NOT for now tptwp. it’s not aegon. it’s not stannis. and since in affc grrm took the time to put his red herring around with the language question and so on… sorry but it’s not dany. if she was dany, no one would have brought her up as an option, because that’s… not how the narrative works. like, literally, in asoiaf I’ve never seen anything that explicitly stated (that wasn’t dany owning dragons obv but that was the established plot point from the beginning) actually become a thing. you get hints. you get parallels you can theorize on. but like, if the narrative tells you davos dies offscreen davos doesn’t die offscreen, if cersei thinks marge is the younger and beautiful queen she’s wrong and if aemon thinks tptw is dany, she’s not. it’s a red herring. why?

interlude: there’s a thing named occam’s razor which basically says the simplest explanation is the most likely and if your theory needs to be extra elaborate to work, it’s probably not true.

if we follow occam’s razor (which a lot of narrative does because the more convoluted is a theory the least likely is the reader to buy it), we know: that tptwp has to be a thing, that he/she is related to rhaegar and should be one of his children, that he/she has to die among smoke and salt and blah blah blah and that prophecies are half-trained mules and that in order to have three kids R started a civil war, so that third kid must be damned important, and that it’s not R’s second child because R thought he was, and that it can’t be the first since he’s dead.

now: who is actually R’s offspring which has not been mentioned openly in the book until now, who has never ever ever brought up by the narrative itself as a possible AA/ptwp candidate, who has showed up in melisandre’s flames when she asked to see AA thinking she’d see stannis, and, most important, whose canonical death PERFECTLY matches the AA prophecy if you don’t interpret it literally?

The dead man was Ser Patrek of King’s Mountain; his head was largely gone, but his heraldry was as distinctive as his face. [from awoiaf: Patrek is clean-shaven and windburnt. His knightly raiment are of white and blue and silver, his cloak a spatter of five-pointed stars.] Jon did not want to risk Ser Malegorn or Ser Brus or any of the queen’s other knights trying to avenge him.

Wun Weg Wun Dar Wun howled again and gave Ser Patrek’s other arm a twist and pull. It tore loose from his shoulder with a spray of bright red blood. Like a child pulling petals off a daisy, thought Jon. "Leathers, talk to him, calm him. The Old Tongue, he understands the Old Tongue. Keep back, the rest of you. Put away your steel, we’re scaring him.”

Couldn’t they see the giant had been cut? Jon had to put an end to this or more men would die. They had no idea of Wun Wun’s strength. A horn, I need a horn. He saw the glint of steel, turned toward it. “No blades! ” he screamed. “Wick, put that knife …”

… away, he meant to say. When Wick Whittlestick slashed at his throat, the word turned into a grunt. Jon twisted from the knife, just enough so it barely grazed his skin. He cut me. When he put his hand to the side of his neck, blood welled between his fingers. “Why? ”

“For the Watch.” Wick slashed at him again. This time Jon caught his wrist and bent his arm back until he dropped the dagger. The gangling steward backed away, his hands upraised as if to say, Not me, it was not me. Men were screaming. Jon reached for Longclaw, but his fingers had grown stiff and clumsy. Somehow he could not seem to get the sword free of its scabbard.

Then Bowen Marsh stood there before him, tears running down his cheeks. [NOTE: tears are made of… salt…] “For the Watch.” He punched Jon in the belly. When he pulled his hand away, the dagger stayed where he had buried it.

Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger’s hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold night air the wound was smoking. “Ghost,” he whispered. Pain washed over him. Stick them with the pointy end. When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold…

… and, who has the show confirmed as being r+l?

guys.

it’s jon.

it’s always been jon and it’s always going to be jon on his own. dany will be important af, whoever else rides the third dragon is gonna be hella important (I have a theory which is probably wrong but whatever grrm will have to pry it from me), but tptwp/AA is jon. and R said ‘his is the song of ice and fire’, not ‘the song of ice and fire is for tptwp and AA’. like. it seems fairly obvious textually to me that there’s no way it’s anyone but jon snow, who by the way in theory has had his nissa nissa moment with ygritte if you take it sorta literally and in a lot other ways if you take it very imaginatively.

you’re totally welcome to think it’s both of them, but according to me it’s just him, never mind that dany is all targ, he is half stark and half targ…. so…. ice and fire. like. it’s so trasparent I just can’t think that there has to be something even more complicated to it. *shrug*