#rainfall deficit

[townpostin]

Jharkhand Braces for Intense Monsoon Activity

IMD Predicts Widespread Rainfall Across State Jharkhand anticipates significant monsoon activity, with IMD forecasting widespread rainfall. Early monsoon arrival brings hope amidst 52% seasonal deficit, as state prepares for potential heavy downpours. RANCHI – Jharkhand is set to experience significant monsoon activity over the next 48 hours, according to the latest bulletin from the India…

[anumetservice]

From Record-Breaking Dry 21 Months to Wettest Month and Day in Over 21 Months

From Record-Breaking Dry 21 Months to Wettest Month and Day in Over 21 Months

By Dale C. S. Destin – Published 20 October 2022 | The past 21 months, ending August, is the driest such period on record for Antigua, dating back to at least 1928, the furthest distance back for reliable data. Since the heavens opened in November 2020, for the following 21 months – December 2020 to August 2022, drought reigns. The island-average rainfall for the record dry period was 1179.3 mm…

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

'The Amazon rainforest entered the dry season already with a water deficit due to the 2023 drought,' says expert

The extreme drought stems from the 2023 El Niño and the loss of Amazon rainforest areas

“The drought is killing the coffee plantations,” laments family farmer Gersi de Souza, a resident of Acrelândia in Acre state, one of the 3,978 Brazilian municipalities affected by the current drought. “Last year, we were already in a tough situation. And the situation has become more complicated this year,” he says. This is the worst drought in 70 years in Brazil, according to data from the National Center for Monitoring and Alerts of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN, in English) of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation. 

Researchers interviewed by Brasil de Fato believe that the phenomenon results from the influence of El Niño, which affected Brazil in 2023, and growing deforestation in the Amazon, which intensified during the Bolsonaro administration. “From 2019 to 2022, we lost 50,000 km² of primary forest, apart from secondary forest,” explains Luciana Gatti, coordinator of the greenhouse gas laboratory at the National Institute for Space Research (INPE, in Portuguese). Primary forests are the native forests of a biome, while secondary forests are those that have grown in a previously deforested area. “We haven’t recovered the 50,000 square kilometers of forest lost, and we haven’t zeroed out deforestation either,” she warns. 

El Niño, characterized by the warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean, has reduced rainfall in the Amazon rainforest, bringing a dry summer to the region in 2023. “We saw fish deaths, dolphins, riverine populations, and Indigenous peoples isolated and having difficulty accessing high-quality water and transportation,” says Helga Correa, a conservation specialist at the NGO WWF Brasil. In 2024, the drought in the Amazon came earlier than expected, without the biome recovering from the previous drought. “We didn’t have enough rain in the wet season, and we entered the dry season with a water deficit,” she explains. 

Continue reading.

[spacetimewithstuartgary]

Smoke Fills South American Skies

Intense fires burning in several South American countries draped large swaths of smoke across the continent throughout August and early September 2024. In Brazil and Bolivia, fire activity reached levels not seen since 2010 as a prolonged drought parched landscapes in both countries.

From about 1 million miles (1.6 million kilometers) away from Earth, NASA’s EPIC (Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera) imager on the DSCOVR (Deep Space Climate Observatory) satellite captured this view of smoke billowing from the blazes on September 3, 2024.

Smoke from fires in Brazil swept over the country’s capital city in mid-August and early September. For several days, São Paolo’s air was clouded with smog, and air quality was unhealthy for sensitive groups, according to AirNow. The smoke grounded flights and forced schools to close in the most populous city in Brazil, according to The Guardian.

The fire season in the southern Amazon, which generally ramps up in August and peaks in September and October, has been intense this year. According to the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), a component of the European Union’s space program, emissions from fires have been exceptionally high in Bolivia and the Brazilian states of Amazonas and Mato Grosso do Sul.

CAMS estimates near-real-time wildfire emissions using its Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS), which aggregates observations made by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) sensors on NASA’s Aqua and Terra satellites. Compared to the previous 21 years, these areas have registered their highest year-to-date total emissions, at 44, 22, and 13 million metric tons of carbon, respectively.

The Pantanal region—which straddles the Brazil-Bolivia border and is home to one of the world’s largest tropical wetlands—has been especially hard hit in 2024. Early and intense blazes spread over the wetlands in late May and continued into August. According to Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE), there were a record number of fire detections in the biome in June 2024, and fires have continued to burn at high levels since.

The false-color image above, acquired by the OLI (Operational Land Imager) on Landsat 8, shows fires near Ascensión de Guarayos, in the Bolivian state of Santa Cruz. The false-color image emphasizes the burn areas (brown) from several fires on September 3, 2024. Unburned vegetation is green. Near- and short-wave infrared bands help penetrate some of the smoke to reveal hot areas associated with active fires, which appear orange.

Through September 6, blazes tore through more than 10 million hectares of Bolivia, or roughly 9 percent of the country’s total area. Out of the 42 million metric tons of carbon emitted in Bolivia between May and August, 33 million metric tons came from fires in the state of Santa Cruz, according to Mark Parrington, CAMS senior scientist with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

Large parts of South America have seen significant rainfall deficits over the past three months. According to ECMWF, this has led to “exceptional drought” (the highest drought ranking) over much of the central and northern parts of the continent. Brazil’s Natural Disaster Monitoring and Alerts Center noted on September 5 that shifted rainfall patterns from El Niño, increased temperatures from climate change, and reduced humidity from deforestation have all contributed to the drought.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, using data from DSCOVR EPIC and Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Story by Emily Cassidy.

[smute]

Global temperatures soared to a new record in September by a huge margin, stunning scientists and leading one to describe it as “absolutely gobsmackingly bananas”.

The hottest September on record follows the hottest August and hottest July, with the latter being the hottest month ever recorded. The high temperatures have driven heatwaves and wildfires across the world.

September 2023 beat the previous record for that month by 0.5C, the largest jump in temperature ever seen. September was about 1.8C warmer than pre-industrial levels. Datasets from European and Japanese scientists confirm the leap.

The heat is the result of the continuing high levels of carbon dioxide emissions combined with a rapid flip of the planet’s biggest natural climate phenomenon, El Niño. The previous three years saw La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which lowers global temperature by a few tenths of a degree as more heat is stored in the ocean.

Conditions have now rebounded to an El Niño event, which releases ocean heat and drives up temperatures. It’s all but certain that 2023 will be the hottest on record and 2024 may even exceed that, as the heating impact of El Niño is felt most in the year after it begins.

“September was, in my professional opinion as a climate scientist, absolutely gobsmackingly bananas,” said Zeke Hausfather, at the Berkeley Earth climate data project.

Mika Rantanen, climate researcher at the Finnish Meteorological Institute, said: “I’m still struggling to comprehend how a single year can jump so much compared to previous years.” Prof Ed Hawkins, at the University of Reading, UK, said the heat seen this summer was “extraordinary”.

Samantha Burgess, at the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, said: “The unprecedented temperatures for the time of year observed in September have broken records by an extraordinary amount. 2023 [is] on track to be the warmest year and about 1.4C above pre-industrial average temperatures. Two months out from [the UN climate conference] Cop28, the sense of urgency for ambitious climate action has never been more critical.”

The heat hit record levels within many countries too, including France, Germany, and Poland. The UK saw its joint hottest September on record, the Met Office reported, in data that goes back to 1884.

In Australia, climate scientist and author Joelle Gergis said: “Observations of Australia’s climate in September are shocking. Figures show where maximum temperatures were the highest on record, with many areas 3C to 5C above average. Rainfall deficits are primed for drought. Summer is going to be brutal.”

While human-caused global heating and El Niño are the biggest factors causing the record-breaking temperatures, other factors may be contributing small increases as well, Hausfather said. These include an uptick in the 11-year solar cycle, cuts in sun-blocking sulphur emissions from shipping and industry and a volcanic eruption in Tonga that released a large amount of water vapour, which traps heat.

In August, the Guardian asked 45 leading climate scientists from around the world about the record-breaking temperatures. They said that, despite it certainly feeling as if events had taken an alarming turn, the broad global heating trend seen to date was entirely in line with three decades of scientific predictions.

Increasingly severe weather impacts had also been long signposted by scientists, although the speed and intensity of the reality and the unexpected vulnerability of many populations scared some. The off-the-charts sea temperatures and Antarctic sea ice loss were seen as the most shocking events.

The scientists said that the exceptional events of 2023 could be a normal year in just a decade, unless there is a dramatic increase in climate action. The researchers overwhelmingly pointed to one action as critical: slashing the burning of fossil fuels down to zero.

Source

[thoughtlessarse]

Mexico had its rainiest June in more than 80 years after seeing six months of below-average rainfall, and the second-driest May ever recorded. This week, the National Water Commission (Conagua) reported that rainfall in June had replenished many of the country’s major reservoirs, mitigating the worst of the drought conditions in northern Mexico. The 148.7 mm of rain registered across the country last month is 49% more than the average for June. Conagua said it was the most rainfall recorded in June since 1941. Conagua also reported that the 664 cubic millimeters of rain dumped on northern Mexico by Tropical Storm Alberto from June 19-23 helped reduce the rain deficit for the year to 3.3%, with regard to the historical yearly average. The reservoirs in Nuevo León swelled with water such that the floodgates were opened at the La Boca dam allowing the water to flow into the El Cuchillo dam. The heavy precipitation from Alberto caused severe flooding in Nuevo León and Tamaulipas, as well as in Yucatán and Quintana Roo when it crossed over the peninsula. Tropical Storm Chris brought heavy rains to Veracruz, Puebla and Hidalgo after coming ashore on June 30.

continue reading

Make good use of it, because it's not going to last.

[willcodehtmlforfood]

Changing climate casts a shadow over the future of the Panama Canal – and global trade | Environment | The Guardian

The locking system relies on fresh water from Lake Gatun and another nearby reservoir to function. Every ship that passes through the canal uses 200m litres of water most of which then flows out into the sea.

The same sources also provide water for more than half of Panama’s 4.3 million inhabitants, forcing administrators to balance the demands of international shipping with the needs of the locals.

In normal times, the Panama Canal has capacity to handle 36 ships a day. But as water has grown scarcer, the canal authority has reduced that number to 22. By February, it will be just 18.

Those who rely on the route are left with no good options; they can wait up to weeks at a time to be allowed through the canal, pay up to $4m to jump ahead in the queue – or do what many shipping companies have been forced to and avoid the route entirely, adding days or weeks to their journey.

[tractorseva]

How MSP Hikes Impact Tractor Maintenance in 2023-24

In 2023-24, the Minimum Support Price (MSP) increases for key crops have brought significant relief to farmers across India. The Reserve Bank of India's Annual Report 2023-24 highlights a rise in MSPs for both kharif (5.3-10.4%) and rabi crops (2.0-7.1%), ensuring farmers earn at least 50% more than their production costs. These hikes come as a boon, particularly during a year marked by a 6% deficit in monsoon rainfall and challenges posed by El Niño conditions.

However, while the MSP boost helps farmers financially, the maintenance of agricultural equipment, especially tractors, becomes even more crucial in maximizing output under these unpredictable conditions. With a 1.3% decrease in food grain production in 2023-24, farmers need to ensure their equipment is functioning at peak performance to make the most of this government support.

At Tractor Seva, we understand how essential well-maintained machinery is for maintaining productivity and profitability. We offer a comprehensive range of maintenance services, using only the best parts from trusted brands like Bosch, Castrol, and Mobil. Our premium service kits are designed to reduce operating costs, improve efficiency, and extend the life of your tractor.

Why Tractor Maintenance is Key Amid MSP Hikes

Boost Efficiency During Challenging Times: With below-average rainfall impacting crop yields, every bit of efficiency counts. Regular maintenance prevents breakdowns and ensures your tractor is running smoothly when it’s needed most, allowing you to make the most of the MSP benefits.

Reduced Operating Costs: Proper servicing helps reduce fuel consumption, lowers repair costs, and keeps downtime minimal. Investing in high-quality maintenance from Tractor Seva can improve your overall profitability.

Maximizing Government Support: The rise in MSPs combined with other government schemes like the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) means farmers have more support than ever. To fully capitalize on this, having reliable machinery is crucial to meeting production goals.

At Tractor Seva, our goal is to keep your equipment in peak condition, ensuring that your investment in machinery continues to yield returns, especially in challenging agricultural seasons. Visit TractorSeva.com to learn more about our services.

[palmoilnews]

Seasonally strong output kept Malaysia palm oil production firm 2023/24 MALAYSIA PALM OIL PRODUCTION: 19.6 [18.6–20.2] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST UPDATE Seasonally strong output maintained 2023/24 Malaysia palm oil production at 19.6 million metric tonnes (mt), unchanged from the last update. August's production remained robust amid the high crop season. In August, Malaysia experienced a wet weather pattern, with the entire country recording precipitation surpluses of 20-140 mm above normal. This alleviated the July's dryness and replenished soil moisture to above-average levels, supporting the upside for palm oil production. In the next 10 days, there will be relatively weak precipitation across the northern part of Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah, with expected rainfall deficits of 10-20 mm below normal. However, the recent rains have been beneficial, and the upcoming drier period will not likely harm palm oil trees. According to LSEG Weather Research, it was observed that the Niño 3.4 Region crossed the La Niña threshold in early September. As of September 3, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the Niño 3.4 Region was recorded at -0.5 °C, indicating the attainment of La Niña status. The La Niña status is anticipated to persist in the coming months.

[meteorologistaustenlonek]

WDEFWeather #News12Weather #BlipCast for Tuesday Evening: Seeing more in the way of clouds, but much less in the forecast when it comes to rain/thunder. Not good news with our rainfall deficit the way it is.

More on your forecast tonight on @WDEFNews12.

[townpostin]

Jamshedpur Drenched: Monsoon Rains Slash Deficit

Heavy Downpours Bring Relief, but Urban Areas Face Flooding Challenges Monsoon downpours slash state’s rain deficit but leave Jamshedpur waterlogged. Urban infrastructure overwhelmed as residents navigate flooded streets and health risks loom. JAMSHEDPUR – The state’s rainfall deficit has been significantly reduced by recent monsoon deluges; however, urban areas are currently experiencing severe…

[brainmassfinance]

Crude Oil Prices See Support from Positive US GDP Report

September arabica coffee (KCU24) is up +2.05 (+0.89%), and Sep ICE robusta coffee (RMU24) is up +43 (+0.99%).

Coffee prices today are rebounding higher on some short-covering after the sharp sell-off seen in the past 2 weeks to new 2-week lows early today.  Coffee prices are seeing support today from the slightly weaker dollar and the lack of rain last week in Brazil.

The lack of rain last week in Brazil is supportive for arabica coffee prices.  Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil's Minas Gerais region received no rain last week, versus the historical average for the week of 2.6 mm.  Minas Gerais accounts for about 30% of Brazil's arabica crop.

Coffee harvest pressures in Brazil are bearish for coffee prices.  Safras & Mercado reported last Friday that Brazil's 2024/25 coffee harvest was 74% completed as of July 16, faster than 66% last year at the same time and faster than the 5-year average of 70%.  Brazil is the world's largest producer of arabica coffee beans.  However, Safras & Mercado cut its Brazil 2024/25 coffee output estimate to 66 million bags from a previous estimate of 70.4 million bags, citing above-average temperatures and drought that compromised coffee yields.

A rebound in ICE coffee inventories from historically low levels is negative for prices.  ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories rose to a 1-year high Wednesday of 6,478 lots, up from the record low of 1,958 lots posted in February 2024.  Also, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 1-1/2 year high on June 25 of 842,434 bags, up from the 24-year low of 224,066 bags posted in November 2023.  Arabica inventories on Tuesday were mildly below that 1-1/2 year high at 813,378 bags.

Robusta coffee prices are underpinned by fears that excessive dryness in Vietnam will damage coffee crops and curb future global robusta production.  Coffee trader Volcafe said on May 22 that Vietnam's 2024/25 robusta coffee crop may only be 24 million bags, the lowest in 13 years, as poor rainfall in Vietnam has caused "irreversible damage" to coffee blossoms.  Volcafe also projects a global robusta deficit of 4.6 million bags in 2024/25, a smaller deficit than the 9-million-bag deficit seen in 2023/24 but the fourth consecutive year of robusta bean deficits.

Vietnam's agriculture department said on March 26 that Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year would drop by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years, due to drought.  Also, the Vietnam Coffee Association said that Vietnam's 2023/24 coffee exports would drop -20% y/y to 1.336 MMT.   The USDA FAS on May 31 projected that Vietnam's robusta coffee production in the new marketing year of 2024/25 will dip slightly to 27.9 million bags from 28 million bags in the 2023/24 season.

Smaller coffee exports from Vietnam, the world's largest robusta coffee producer, are bullish for prices.  The General Department of Vietnam Customs reported July 9 that Vietnam's June coffee exports fell -11.5% m/m and -50.4% y/y to 70,202 MT, the smallest amount of coffee exports for the month of June in 13 years.  Also, Vietnam's Jan-June coffee exports were down -11.4% y/y at 893,820 MT.

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on July 5 that global May coffee exports rose +9.8% y/y to 11.78 million bags, and Oct-May global coffee exports were up +10.9% y/y to 92.73 million bags.  Cecafe reported July 11 that Brazil's 2023/24 coffee exports rose +33% y/y to a record 47.3 million bags.

In a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) projected on May 3 that 2023/24 global coffee production would climb +5.8% y/y to 178 million bags due to an exceptional off-biennial crop year.  ICO also projects global 2023/24 coffee consumption will rise +2.2% y/y to 177 million bags, resulting in a 1 million bag coffee surplus.

The USDA's bi-annual report released on June 20 was bearish for coffee prices.  The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2024/25 will increase +4.2% y/y to 176.235 million bags, with a +4.4% increase in arabica production to 99.855 million bags and a +3.9% increase in robusta production to 76.38 million bags.  The USDA's FAS forecasts that 2024/25 ending stocks will climb by +7.7% to 25.78 million bags from 23.93 million bags in 2023/24.  The USDA's FAS projects that Brazil's 2024/25 arabica production would climb +7.3% y/y to 48.2 mln bags due to higher yields and increased planted acreage.  The USDA's FAS also forecasts that 2024/54 coffee production in Colombia, the world's second-largest arabica producer, will climb +1.6% y/y to 12.4 mln bags.

[allthebrazilianpolitics]

Extreme drought, climate change and criminality drive explosion of fires in Brazil

A huge cloud of thick smoke covers almost all of Brazil. The colors of the mega-biodiverse country that, among other ecosystems, is home to the world’s largest rainforest have given way to gray smoke, and acrid soot. As a resident of São Paulo, the largest Brazilian city, I can’t remember the last time I saw the sky. Unbelievably, this scenario is the same in about 60% of the Brazilian territory.

The situation that led São Paulo and its metropolitan region, according to the IQAir website, to register, earlier this week, the worst air quality among all the world’s metropolises is the result of a combination of climate change impacts and criminal forest burning for land clearance and occupation. At the same time, more than half of Brazil is also suffering the direct impact of the climate crisis, facing our worst drought in the last 44 years. When it comes to fires, the country is about to surpass an astonishing 160,000 fire outbreaks in 2024 – a number 104% higher compared to last year, in which almost 78,000 outbreaks were registered.

According to Cemaden (the National Center for Monitoring and Warning of Natural Disasters), a total of 1,995 Brazilian cities are in a situation of extreme drought, and more than 1,300 municipalities are facing severe drought conditions. It is the first time that a deficit of rainfall has been observed for such a long time, regular rains are expected just for mid-October, in such an extensive area of Brazil – conditions which drives the spread of fires. The fires that spread through practically all Brazilian ecosystems, with the Amazon, the Cerrado and the Pantanal being the most affected, are caused by human action in 90% of the cases.

According to the government, in the first seven months of this year, more than 5.7 million hectares were burned, a growth of 92% compared to 2023. Mato Grosso, Pará, Amazonas and Tocantins, all states in the Legal Amazon, lead the fires. In Mato Grosso, for example, the increase in fires jumped 646%, from 1,400 last year to almost 10,700 this year.

The explosion of fires, as well as coincidences in the burned areas, raises suspicions of criminal and orchestrated acts. In the state of São Paulo, for example, according to information from IPAM (Amazon Environmental Research Institute) 2,600 hot spots were registered between August 22 and 24th, 81% of which were concentrated in areas of agricultural use. The analysis also shows the appearance of columns of smoke in the state in a short interval of 90 minutes, raising even more suspicions about criminal acts.

Continue reading.

[naturecoaster]

Once-a-Week Watering Restrictions for Pasco County Extended

The Southwest Florida Water Management District (District) Governing Board voted today to extend one-day-per-week watering restrictions for Pasco County until September 1, 2024. This also includes the existing water shortage order currently in effect for Citrus and Hernando counties. The District Governing Board declared a Modified Phase I Water Shortage Order in November 2023 and voted to extend that order in February. Despite having Districtwide above-average rainfall during the winter months (Nov.-Jan.), we still have a Districtwide 12-month rainfall deficit of about 7.4 inches (based on data through May). The 12-month rainfall total through May in the Northern Region of the District matches the historical average, while it is below average in the Southern and Central regions, which includes the Tampa Bay area. June rainfall through June 19 is near the historical average in the Southern Region of the District, while it is below average in the Northern and Central regions. Additionally, Tampa Bay Water’s 15.5-billion-gallon C.W. Bill Young Regional Reservoir is still approximately 12.5 billion gallons below its capacity. Modified Phase I Water Shortage Order does not change allowable watering schedules for most counties, but does prohibit “wasteful and unnecessary” water use. Twice-per-week lawn watering schedules remain in effect except where stricter measures have been imposed by local governments. Residents are asked to check their irrigation systems to ensure they work properly. This means testing and repairing broken pipes and leaks and fixing damaged or tilted sprinkler heads. Residents should also check their irrigation timer to ensure the settings are correct and the rain sensor is working properly. District Extends Watering Restrictions for Pasco County Citrus and Hernando counties and the city of Dunedin have local ordinances that remain on one-day-per-week schedules: - If your address (house number) ends in... - ...0 or 1, water only on Monday - ...2 or 3, water only on Tuesday - ...4 or 5, water only on Wednesday - ...6 or 7, water only on Thursday - ...8 or 9*, water only on Friday             * and locations without a discernible address - Unless your city or county already has stricter hours in effect, properties under two acres in size may only water before 8 a.m. or after 6 p.m. - Unless your city or county already has stricter hours in effect, properties two acres or larger may only water before 10 a.m. or after 4 p.m. - Low-volume watering of plants and shrubs (micro-irrigation, soaker hoses, hand watering) is allowed any day and any time. The order also requires local utilities to review and implement procedures for enforcing year-round water conservation measures and water shortage restrictions, including reporting enforcement activity to the District. For additional information about the Modified Phase I Water Shortage Order, visit the District’s website WaterMatters.org/Restrictions. For water-conserving tips, visit WaterMatters.org/Water101. Read the full article

[dailynation]

15 SADC countries in electricity generation deficit – Mposha

By  NATION REPORTER GOVERNMENT says that the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region has been affected with poor rainfall patterns for the last two years which has seen the poor generation of electricity among the 15 member countries. Speaking during a church service at Kaunda Square’s Reformed Church of Zambia (RCZ), Minister of Green Economy and Environment Mike Mposha explains…