#thresholds of aggregation

[geopolicraticus]

Friday 04 April 2025

Grand Strategy Newsletter

The View from Oregon – 335

The Lower Bound of Civilization

…in which I discuss thresholds of aggregation, medieval civilization. V. Gordon Childe, Jericho, Çatalhöyük, Göbekli Tepe, single-city civilizations, craft specialization, comparative advantage, minimal populations of civilizations, sacrifice, and cryonics…

Substack: https://geopolicraticus.substack.com/p/the-lower-bound-of-civilization

Medium: https://jnnielsen.medium.com/the-lower-bound-of-civilization-9dea5d70719f

Reddit: https://geopolicraticus.substack.com/p/the-lower-bound-of-civilization

[probablyasocialecologist]

Ending mass human deprivation and providing good lives for the whole world's population can be accomplished while at the same time achieving ecological objectives. This is demonstrated by a new study by the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology of the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB) and the London School of Economics and Political Science, recently published in World Development Perspectives. About 80% of humanity cannot access necessary goods and services and lives below the threshold for "decent living." Some narratives claim that addressing this problem will require massive economic growth on a global scale, multiplying existing output many times over, which would exacerbate climate change and ecological breakdown. The authors of the new study dispute this claim and argue that human development does not require such a dangerous approach. Reviewing recent empirical research, they find that ending mass deprivation and provisioning decent living standards for 8.5 billion people would require only 30% of current global resource and energy use, leaving a substantial surplus for additional consumption, public luxury, scientific advancement, and other social investments. This would ensure that everyone in the world has access to nutritious food, modern housing, high-quality health care, education, electricity, induction stoves, sanitation systems, clothing, washing machines, refrigerators, heating/cooling systems, computers, mobile phones, internet, and transport, and could also include universal access to recreational facilities, theaters, and other public goods. The authors argue that, to achieve such a future, strategies for development should not pursue capitalist growth and increased aggregate production as such but should rather increase the specific forms of production that are necessary to improve capabilities and meet human needs at a high standard, while ensuring universal access to key goods and services through public provisioning and decommodification. In the Global South, this requires using industrial policy to increase economic sovereignty, develop industrial capacity, and organize production around human well-being. At the same time, in high-income countries, less-necessary production (of things like mansions, SUVs, private jets and fast fashion) must be scaled down to enable faster decarbonization and to help bring resource use back within planetary boundaries, as degrowth scholarship holds.

July 25 2024

[tanadrin]

At the risk of sounding profoundly ignorant, is it possible that 'traditional' economic indicators aren't actually good indicators anymore?

This gets brought up a lot, perhaps as a way to achieve synthesis between the two sides of the argument, and while I understand the intuitive appeal, I don't think it works in practice. I think the term "economic indicators" maybe makes people think of very indirect measures that only loosely correlate with aggregate wellbeing. But what would it mean for numbers like "median real income" and "unemployment" and "labor force participation rate" and "household savings" and "household debt" to no longer be "good [economic] indicators"? How much money you are making (in real terms), how much debt you have, whether you have a job or not--these are, at least when it comes to mere material and economic matters of the sort we are trying to measure--among the most direct measurements we can make.

Yes, when we're talking about large data sets, these numbers will always be an aggregate, and will tell a story about general trends. A nation of hundreds of millions of people can be phenomenally prosperous, and still have millions who struggle. I think one reason Stancil gets pushback is because people imagine he is glib in the face of those millions who still struggle, but he isn't, really. And neither am I! But another contingent will fall back on the millions who still struggle as proof that things can't be good, as if aggregate increases in prosperity are somehow not real if they are not perfectly uniform, and I think that's wrong, too.

(There are narrower versions of this synthesis, like that rising house prices in particular somehow broke consumer sentiment, and I think that while stronger they also suffer from the problem of having some mysterious threshold effect that only kicked into gear in 2022, and they seem like a sort of ad-hoc modification that is still too wedded to the assumption that consumer sentiment must be absolutely reflective of real conditions. I don't think that's true. Aggregate opinion is wrong about a lot of things. Aggregate opinion of Republicans was already somewhat divorced from economic performance. Aggregate opinion on crime has always been wildly out of whack. Aggregate opinion on other issues can sometimes track real conditions and sometimes be totally insane. There is no reason why we must assume a priori aggregate opinion is always correct, except as a cudgel against our ideological opponents, and frankly I think it's much more interesting to ask why aggregate opinion might go off kilter.)

[max1461]

Ok well. I have brain damage so let's piss some people off. Here are my two genuinely controversial political opinions:

1. Cultural chauvinism is worse than per se racism. The political stance that most viscerally pisses me off is "all people are born equal but some cultures are better than others", fairly common among Western liberals. Now there are two directions (maybe more) in which you could strawman my position here, so please don't take either of them. But my stance is basically that... well, fuck, I have brain damage I can't defend it right now. Go trawl my posts. Uh. Culture is an expression of aggregated human will, the intermediate and the end result of a world of humans driving affairs as best they can. Obviously not everything humans do with human will is good or worth supporting, but in the same way that you should be highly resistant to writing off an individual on the grounds of their flaws you should be highly resistant to writing off the much more amorphous (I have posts about this aspect of the issue too) thing that is "a culture". That was a poor articulation. I'm a pluralist, sue me.

2. This is an unfortunate thing to follow up the previous with, uh, not sure how I can make this not look suspicious. Genuinely this is a coincidence. But I think "just following orders" is in a lot of cases a pretty good excuse. I mean not if you're a fucking concentration camp guard, that's evil in a way you shouldn't be able to overlook. But I'm actually not on board with the infinite malleability of the human being, I do think we have, uh, "human nature", and I think risking life and limb to help (or avoid harming) people you don't personally know is admirable but it's admirable precisely because it's against our typical nature, and so, you know, people who tacitly participate in exploitation and social violence because it's what's expected of them and they might face punishments for doing otherwise, well, that's Regular Joe behavior. And almost by definition I don't think people should be derided for being regular people, even if yes some other behavior would have been more admirable. Again, there's a threshold where I don't think this applies anymore, and guarding or running a concentration camp is far across that threshold.

[piratesexmachine420]

Interesting Calculator Fact Number 7: these four (4) screenshots from TI's 2023 annual report are the only instances of the word 'calculator' in the entire 160 page document.

As a point of comparison, there are fifteen (15) instances of the word 'automotive'. Not only are calculators not a major market for TI, they're other. Miscellaneous. Lumped in with DLP (3 mentions, all in these screenshots) and ASICs (likewise). Ouch.

TI will charge you one hundred and thirty-nine United States dollars and ninety ninety goddamn cents for a base model TI-84 Plus -- a graphing calculator from 2004 with a 1-bit monochrome LCD and a z80 (not ez80) processor -- then they'll take your money and wipe their ass with it. It goes in the envelope marked "Other". "Cannot be aggregated with other operating segments." "Does not meet the thresholds to be individually reportable." Motherfucker doesn't even include batteries. You have to go buy AAAs. Fuck you TI.

(You may also note, if you've seen the same Tumblr posts I have, that there is no section marked 'defense'. No trickery here, they sold their defense business to Raytheon in 1997. TI still sell stuff to the military, of course, but they don't make bombs anymore. For whatever that's worth.)

[o-craven-canto]

The processes that can turn an aggregate of cells into a complex organism. ADH: cell adhesion. APO: apoptosis, or selective cell death. ASM: asymmetrical morphogenesis. DAD: differential cell adhesion, sorting cells by type. ECM: secretion of extracellular material. LAT: lateral inhibition, a switch that can turn a cell into two different states. MIT: mitogenesis, or localized cell division. MOR: diffusion of a morphogenic signal. OSC: timed osclllation between different states. POL: polarization, or differential properties at different ends of a cell. TUR: Turing reaction-diffusion pattern. (pic: Newman & Bhat)

It's all well and good to say that DNA contains the instructions to produce an organism, but all DNA can do is induce the secretion of chemicals. There are no printed instructions or little foremen supervising the growth of an embryo. So how does secreting chemicals in a clump of identical cells end up producing something as complex as an animal?

Here's some tricks.

Differential adhesion. The cells of all animals have surface proteins called cadherins that bind each other into solid tissues. If all cells were uniformly covered in cadherins, they would form homogeneous spherical lumps; but if some cells are covered more or less sparsely than the others, then they will spontaneously sort by cadherin density, forming clumps and layers much like the spontaneous sorting of water and oil. If some surfaces are not adhesive at all, those will find themselves surrounding cavities. (pic: Gilbert & Barresi)

Lateral inhibition. The Notch protein forms a trans-membrane complex; when the external portion receives a signal from the environment, the internal portion breaks off and enters the cell nucleus to activate the expression of otherwise repressed genes. Thus, the Notch system works as a switch between two different states of a cell depending on whether or not it receives a particular signal. This is called "lateral inhibition" because it makes neighbor cells, such as neurons and glia in the brain, develop into complementary forms repressing each other's unnecessary genes. (pic: Audrey Effenberger, Wiki)

Cell polarization. "Wnt" is the name of a family of secreted signal proteins that have a multitude of functions. Among this is establishing cell polarity: through a cascade of signals, it can cause the cell's cytoskeleton -- its internal scaffolding -- to rearrange itself into an asymmetrical shape (... I think. This part of the process isn't fully clear to me), which leads to further differentiation. If the polarity involves different types or densities of adhesion proteins, then differential adhesion will sort polarized cells into distinct layers or hollow sacs and tubes -- hence, organs and body cavities. Cell polarization also leads to the establishment of the head-tail and back-belly body axes. (pic: Gilbert & Barresi)

Morphogenic gradients. When a cell or group of cells start secreting a diffusing chemical, this will naturally form a gradient with its concentration fading away with distance. This can direct differential development of cells over the organism body. Even if the chemical gradient is smooth, the morphological one doesn't need to be: cells can have different thresholds that will cause them to take one or another form. So there will be different discrete types of cells, each developing at a fixed range of distances from the source of the gradient. For example, in vertebrates, the protein Shh in the notochord induces the formation of motor neurons in the ventral side of the neural tube, which is closest. (pic: Gilbert & Barresi)

Asymmetrical morphogenesis. But then how do we end up with asymmetrical morphogenesis, for example our heart growing more on the left than on the right side? Morphogens don't have to spread only by themselves: in vertebrates, the morphogenic protein Nodal is systematically pushed to the left by beating cilia. Malformations in cilia can result into situs inversus, the development of organs in a position that mirrors the usual one. In addition (see "reaction-diffusion" below), Nodal induces the secretion of the protein Lefty2 which in turn inhibits Nodal and spreads faster, resulting into a side of the body where Nodal cannot accumulate. (pic: Green & Sharpe)

Chemical oscillation. If gene-activating factors inhibit their own synthesis, then they will come and go in regular waves, growing when they are few and decaying when they are many. This gives cells their own internal clock, which for example allows a cell to replicate at regular intervals. In multicellular organisms, the oscillation occurs in space as well as in time, as growth signals are released in waves. So they determine the formation of regular segments: for example, our vertebrae. (pic: Müller et al.)

Extracellular matrix secretion. While cells in epithelial tissues (like the outer layers of skin, or the lining of body cavities) stick closely to each other, those in connective tissues (like the inner pulp of skin, cartilage, or fat) are sunken in a matrix of various composition, but which usually contains elastic fibers of collagen. When a cell develops into a fibroblast, it starts secreting around itself the component of extracellular matrix with various mechanical properties, affecting the shape and structure of the body (especially when the cell is polarized). Even bone is simply a connective tissue whose matrix in rich in calcium phosphate mineral.

Turing patterns (reaction-diffusion). A chemical produced by a cell activates both itself and its own inhibitor. Activation is powerful but short-ranged; inhibition is weaker but spreads farther. Once a cell has produced the chemical past a critical threshold, its keeps reinforcing its own production, but also inhibits its neighbor from doing the same. At a greater distance, however, another cell or group of cells could also start the synthesis on their own. Depending on the range and power of activation and inhibition, this produces all sorts of patterns of activation: spots, stripes, waves, grids, rings. (pic: Green & Sharpe; Metz &al)

Apoptosis. Cells that receive a certain signal die, and their matter is recycled. If the signal of death is distributed according to Turing patterns, then living tissue can be cut and molded in very precise ways. For example, cells in the developing limb-bud of a vertebrate die in waves leaving behind parallel cylinders: the beginning of fingers.

Multiple mechanisms coming together to make vertebrate limbs: a morphogenic gradient distinguishes base and tip of a forming limb; reaction-diffusion creates a Turing pattern (diverging waves) that determines where finger bones will develop; and finally apoptosis cuts away the intermediate tissue. (pic: Green & Sharpe)

SOURCES

Gilbert & Barresi (2016), Developmental Biology Green & Sharpe (2015), Positional information and reaction-diffusion: two big ideas in developmental biology combine Newman & Bhat (2009), Dynamical patterning modules: a "pattern language" for development and evolution of multicellular form

[huntingteeth]

ok ok ok it's time for me to do a list of all my favorite bits of even in arcadia, all the little things that are scratching my brain correctly

look to windward: "even in this garden of gardens i am the god of the gaps […] nobody knows where i came from, even i have forgotten"

GOD OF THE GAPS left me reeling. i'm p sure most of you don't know this bc it predates this tumblr lol but i have always had a heavy association on liminality, thresholds, spaces between et al, and god of the gaps hits right in that place for me.

emergence: "tell me what you meant by living past your half-life"

vessel, you beautiful bastard.

past self: specifically the stressed syllables throughout the verse "and you now i deliberate cutting out the demons [...] the leaves on the trees so"

dangerous: "when's the last time you tasted blood? and what will it take to stem the flood?"

obviously flood could just be referring back to blood, but my brain immediately connected it back to chokehold's "we were tangled up like branches in a flood."

caramel: "wear me out like prada, devil in my detail"

listen. listen, "wear me out like prada" prada isn't something you wear out, but the status symbol of prada is. and then the slight alteration of the idiom devil in the details, alluding to something that looks simple coming with a catch or becoming more complicated -- ugh, ok, i see you.

even in arcadia: uh ofc the music box song gets me in the chest every time i listen to this, but also: "i am the final dawn, i am the flood and what was missing from those scriptures will be written in my blood"

again that blood/flood connection. this is the song that really, really reminds me of the strange trails album by lord huron, and that hollow sort of feeling from realizing you're standing next to something mystical or not quite human. you're the in between, you're the god of the gaps.

provider: "i want to delineate that the last time we were around each other, i felt myself hesitate" WHO ELSE is out here using words like delineate in their music??? delineate is one of my favorite words. it goes in that same box as words like aggregate and equivocate, there's just something really good about those -ate words.

damocles: the whole first verse of this song really gets me. the alliteration in "[...] blades, blue blossom days," the fullness of those words in his mouth. "faces on a farthing" calling back to "sovereigns" in emergence, the differences in their value, etc.

gethsemane: the obvious line really sucker punched me here. but even beyond that, the name being an allusion to the garden that is a symbol of jesus's submission to god, and suffering, and the place of his arrest before the crucifixion -- oof. but also, on the reverse of that, gethsemane is a reminder of how much jesus loved us, how he would go through this deep anguish to absolve us of sin. and that kind of feels like what vessel's trying to do here, absolve either this former partner, or even himself, of their actions: "but you were trying your best"/"and i was trying my best"

infinite baths: infinite baths/endless sea? wild. and this: "something is lifting the bones, something is dancing in revelry, wider than oceans below, taller than titans on box springs" -- i love the image that this creates. "taller than titans on box springs" is such a specific, peculiar line that really resonates with me.

[justinspoliticalcorner]

Tim Ganser at The UnPopulist:

Since the end of World War II, Germans had by and large steadfastly resisted voting for far-right populists. That norm was shattered in the last decade by the success of the political party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which seemed to gain more traction as it radicalized into a full-blown, hard right populist party. A year into its existence, spurred by widespread discontent with German fiscal policy, the AfD won seven seats in European Parliament. In 2017, after undergoing a hard-right turn, it won 94 seats in the German federal elections, good for third place overall. For the past year, the AfD has consistently ranked second in Politico’s poll aggregator tracking the public’s voting intentions.

In this Sunday’s European Parliament elections, roughly 1 in 6 German voters is expected to cast a ballot for the AfD, whose members have trivialized the Holocaust, encouraged their followers to chant Nazi slogans, and participated in a secret conference where they fantasized about forced deportations of naturalized citizens they derisively call “Passport Germans.” Worse still, the AfD is predicted to be the strongest party, with up to a third of the vote share, in the three elections for state parliament in Saxony and Thuringia on Sept. 1 and in Brandenburg on Sept. 22. And in generic polls for a hypothetical federal election, the AfD fares even better than it did in any previous election. How did Germany get to this point?

The AfD’s Origin Story

The AfD was founded in early 2013 by a group of conservatives, led by the economics professor, Bernd Lucke, greatly disillusioned with then-Chancellor Angela Merkel’s fiscal policy. In their view, the European debt crisis had revealed deep instability within the eurozone project as smaller nations found themselves unable to cope with the economic demands of membership, and they believed Merkel’s focus on saving the euro was coming at the expense of German economic interests. This was, however, the opposite of a populist complaint—in fact, the AfD was initially referred to as a “Professorenpartei” (a professor’s party) because of the party’s early support from various economics professors who were more interested in fiscal policy than catering to popular will. In its earliest days, the AfD could best be characterized as a cranky but respectable party of fiscal hardliners. Its anti-establishment posture stemmed entirely from its belief in the necessity of austerity. Even its name could be construed less as nationalistic and more an answer to the dictum coined by Merkel—“alternativlose Politik” (policy for which there is no alternative)—to defend her bailouts during the eurozone crisis.

Although the AfD had launched an abstract economic critique of Merkel’s policies that could be hard to parse for non-experts, its contrarian stance resonated with a significant portion of Germans. Right out of the gate, the AfD obtained the highest vote share of any new party since 1953, nearly clearing the 5% threshold for inclusion in the Bundestag, Germany’s Parliament, in its first electoral go round. Its success was also measurable in terms of membership, passing the 10,000 mark almost immediately after its formation. The rapid increase in membership, however, helped lay the groundwork for its turn toward right-wing populism. Perhaps due to pure negligence—or a combination of calculation and ambition—the party’s founders did little to stop right-wing populists from swelling its rolls. And as the German economy emerged through the European debt crisis in good financial shape, fiscal conservatism naturally faded from the public’s consciousness. However, a new European crisis having to do with migrants came to dominate the popular imagination. The AfD hardliners seized on the growing anti-migrant opinion, positioning the AfD as its champion, thereby cementing the party’s turn towards culture war issues like immigration and national identity.

Starting in late 2014, organized right-wing protesters took to the streets to loudly rail against Germany’s decision to admit Muslim migrants, many fleeing the Syrian civil war. The AfD right wing’s desire to become the political home of nativism led to a rift within the party that culminated in founder Bernd Lucke’s being ousted as leader in 2015, and his replacement with hardliner Frauke Petry. Lucke left the party entirely, citing its right-wing shift, following in the footsteps of what other party leaders had already done and more would do in the coming year. Up until this point, the AfD unwittingly helped the cause of right-wing populism. If the reactionary far-right had tried to start a party from scratch, it would have likely failed. The AfD, after all, was created within a respectable mold, trading on the credentials of its earliest founders and leaders. But with saner voices now pushed out, right-wing populists had the party with public respectability and an established name all to themselves. And they deliberately turned it into a Trojan horse for reactionary leaders who wanted to “fight the system from within.

[...]

A New Normal in Germany

As right-wing populist positions have become part of the political discourse, Germany is now in the exact same position as some of its European neighbors with established hardline populist parties. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni ascended to the premiership in October 2022 as the head of her neo-fascist Fratelli d’Italia party, which is poised to perform well in the upcoming European Parliament elections. In France, the Marine Le Pen-led far-right Rassemblement National (RN) is set to bag a third of votes in those elections, roughly double what President Macron’s governing coalition is expected to obtain.

What makes the situation in Germany especially worrisome is that, unlike in France and Italy, far-right parties had failed to garner any meaningful vote share in nationwide elections until just seven years ago; indeed, until the 2017 federal election, there had never been a right-wing populist party that had received more than six percent of the national vote in Germany. The nation’s special vigilance toward far right ethnonationalism in light of its history of Nazi atrocities was expected to spare Germany the resurgence of far-right populism. But it actually led to complacency among mainstream parties. By 2017, the AfD—already in its right-wing populist phase—received nearly 13% of the vote in the federal election to become the third-strongest parliamentary entity. And by then it had also made inroads in all state parliaments as well as the European Parliament. The norm against it was officially gone.

To be sure, the AfD is not on track to take over German politics. It currently has the fifth most seats among all German parties in the Bundestag, fourth most seats among German parties in the European Parliament, and is a distant eighth in party membership. Nor is it currently a threat to dominate European politics—late last month, the AfD was ousted from the Marine Le Pen-led Identity and Democracy (ID) party coalition, the most right-wing group in the European Parliament. Le Pen, herself a far-right radical, explained the AfD’s expulsion by describing the party as “clearly controlled by radical groups.” But none of the above offer good grounds for thinking the AfD will be relegated to the fringes of German or European politics.

After the election, the AfD could rejoin ID, or it could form a new, even more radical right-wing presence within the European Parliament. Some fear that the AfD could potentially join forces with Bulgaria’s ultranationalist Vazrazhdane. Its leader, Kostadin Kostadinov, said that AfD’s expulsion from ID could create an opening to form “a real conservative and sovereigntist group in the European Parliament.” Also, ID’s removal of the AfD wasn’t due to its stated policy platform being out of step with Europe’s right-wing populist project. Rather, it was because the AfD’s leading candidate, Maximillian Krah, was implicated in a corruption and spying scandal involving China and Russia, and because he said he would not automatically construe a member of the Nazi Schutzstaffel (SS) to be a criminal. Absent these entirely preventable missteps, the AfD would be in good standing with right-wing populist partners in Europe.

Seeing far-right Nazi-esque Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) rise in prominence in Germany is a sad sight.

[bluesturngold]

findhelp.org is the biggest aggregator of resources in the US, and if you're in a bad way (or if something is on the horizon that would put you in a bad way) it's worth looking through

if you reach out to the american red cross or united way for something they can't handle in-house, there's a good chance the caseworker is using findhelp to locate potential avenues of assistance

input your ZIP code to filter out programs that don't service your location, then you can filter by several categories based on what you're looking for help with. not all of them will be relevant to your situation, but i live in a pretty rural area and it's got just under 1,900 program results between the 10 categories.

if you check a subcategory and don't see what you're looking for there, try other similar subcategories just to make sure you aren't missing out on something.

just based on the work i've done helping people the past few months, here are some things i've noticed:

if you have money to pay some bills but not all of them, turn off auto pay for everything, then you'll generally want to prioritize rent/mortgage and your cell phone bill if you can.

do everything you can to not lose your cell phone number, even if that means transferring it to a really cheap prepaid service. if you can't help but lose the number, please reach out to someone beforehand and let them know where you are and where they might be able to get ahold of you (i.e. by calling a local library you intend to frequent, contacting your email, etc.). i frequently speak with friends and family members trying to help someone they lost contact with and i cannot stress enough how few options there are for locating and reconnecting people. if you're using a free calling/texting app on your phone, please make note of the phone number someone can call you back at. (also, they tend to rely on strength of wi-fi signal for clear service, there's a possibility a slow public wi-fi connection could make the call choppy.)

seek help early. some programs have caps on how much money you can request (this can make getting enough money to catch up on multiple missed payments difficult), or will only help after you meet a certain need threshold (this sucks, the US is deeply broken), but it's better to know the criteria ahead of time so you can reach out to them again later. and if that's not a requirement for the resource you reach out to, even better.

a lot of programs are likely to have turnaround times longer than you would like, and very few places have different tiers of urgency. if you expect to get an eviction notice or a utility shutoff notice, start looking for assistance ASAP, because if your landlord gives you a week to pay or get out, sometimes processing your application with a resource can take that whole week.

on that note, here's a resource for getting the gist of your state/territory's eviction laws: https://www.lsc.gov/initiatives/effect-state-local-laws-evictions/lsc-eviction-laws-database just in case you're being evicted unfairly, and here's guidance on how to deal with eviction: https://www.consumerfinance.gov/housing/housing-insecurity/help-for-renters/what-to-do-if-youre-facing-eviction/

have exact dates and numbers, always keep record of the bills that are unpaid, whether it's emails, screenshots of online payment portals saved to your phone, or paper bills

it's demoralizing if you reach out to a bunch of places and they can't help. however, you should keep reaching out while you're still in a position where you can. the more people you talk to, the more likely you are to find someone especially knowledgeable who can point you in the right direction, because the people you reach out to will vary so widely in terms of expertise and ability to assist: you may reach people who are paid employees with very specific training and little else to offer beyond that, you may meet brand new volunteers who are eager to help but need time to ask others for advice, or you might talk to career employees/seasoned volunteers who can get you set on the right path even if their organization can't help personally

you should apply for state and federal resources also. some places will only help if you're turned down by the government, or government aid is insufficient, so that's always a good avenue to try first.

[startedwellthatsentence]

I fucking love reading every work an author has ever published and just rolling in all of the themes that they carry with them, both the ones they probably intend and the ones they may not even recognize*.

Currently reading** as much Adrian Tchaikovsky as I can physically stand before my brain overheats. Some standouts so far:

Distributed Intelligences, obviously. Which also makes me question the distributed NON-intelligences, of which I think I’ve only encountered one so far? Because Bees is obviously bees and also a person, but Avrana Kern is only ants and also a person because ants are the computers she’s stored on. Ants didn’t seem to acquire personhood even when they were accidentally a religion, and they very clearly only replicate Dr. Kern. Hivers and Bees and Kiln are only a person above a certain threshold of members, and below that they’re just non-sapient individuals. And HumOS and other Bioforms are intelligences individually as well as in aggregate, and the Miranda seems to be so as well?

Demagogue-style politicians work by creating impossible ideas that are basically willed into existence in ways that they simply will not ever comprehend, because they don’t actually possess a mind. The people doing the work of enacting any individual step of their ideas can be as blatant or secretive as they want about their actions, because the politician does not have the ability to understand the system either way. (This can be seen in the octopuses and the horrific Trump-stand-in whose name I refuse to learn.)

We are always fewer steps away from making slavery okay again than is comfortable. This is obviously very visible in stories like Dog of War or The Final Architecture.

SPIDERS

There are some people who simply enjoy that they have power when their power derives from the suffering of others, and their post-hod/ad-hoc justifications of their terrible actions will never out-scream the rush of pure pleasure they feel when they see the people they are better than being hurt. (Their POV sections often make me physically ill). (The Trump stand-in from Bear Head, the man running the underground human reserve in Service Model, the Ravin Uskaro POV where he decides to just not rescue most of a planet).

It’s really sexy when the two halves of a couple age at wildly different rates due to undergoing different amounts of stasis at different times. This is especially true if you end up with a woman that looks about 20-30 years older than her lover. It’s not actually important that they fuck — the sexy part is the hot older woman aesthetic. (Hot older women is a major theme in general, I just really like that both The Final Architecture and Children of Time both go out of their way to say “we were once the same age and you were hot, and now you’re like 20 years older than me and I want to fuck about it even more”)

There are obviously more but I’m tired and going to sleep now.

*Don’t get me started on Brandon Sanderson’s deep terror surrounding starvation.

**Listening to Audiobooks — please ignore my spelling of the names of things, I am simply approximating.

[slink-a-dink]

Why is the unity game engine bad

Basically, how I understand it, is that Unity is introducing a new pricing plan/model that takes effect January 1st, 2024, that based on certain thresholds of how many download’s and revenue a game has made in the last year, game developers will have to pay a certain flat rate PER INSTALL, which didn’t exist before. Many people reinstall games or the like after buying it once, so every reinstall counts as a new install, and charges the game company.

So many developers feel rather blindsided, because they feel this could fuck them over financially, they’ve got threeish months to decide what they want to do and many are talking about delays to jump ships. Those currently working on a project are likely to swap over to avoid this. While charity games won’t be affected and they’re trying to clarify things to make it sound better because the initial drop sounded even fucking worse, it feels really rough still.

https://forum.unity.com/threads/unity-plan-pricing-and-packaging-updates.1482750/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=company_global_blog_2023-09-13_updated-forums-faq

(This one has the statement:

Q: If a user reinstalls/redownloads a game / changes their hardware, will that count as multiple installs?

A: Yes. The creator will need to pay for all future installs. The reason is that Unity doesn’t receive end-player information, just aggregate data.

God damn!!)

Some sites for info—

While not the main point, there’s also concerns about the CEO selling stocks right before the news:

Many devs have expressed their distaste for this, the devs of Cult of the Lamb, has stated they will delete the game come january 1st. VideoCult has put the game Rain World on a 50% sale and mentions de-listing it. Innersloth, the minds behind The Henry Stickmin Collection and Among Us has stated this would cause delays, and many developers will feel similarly. Even if they backpedal completely on this decision, so many are probably not gonna use it now, shooting themselves in the foot big time.

[daisukoth]

While Quiet Zero (and each Gundam) utilized massive amounts of Permet, Suletta and Ericht’s shared desire to break free from Quiet Zero manifested as linguistic code within the Permet, triggering an unprecedented data storm among surrounding Permet particles. This exponential data explosion, never before witnessed by humanity, overwhelmed even the GUND Format’s network-based tolerance thresholds. Unable to process this surge, the system released excess data as heat. The resulting information entropy generated enough thermal energy to reduce Quiet Zero and the Gundams’ component materials to particles, leading to their dissolution. When Aerial vanished alongside the Calibarn, Ericht appeared to have disappeared with it. However, the surrounding Permet particles, through repeated aggregation and condensation, successfully preserved her individual biological information within crystallized Permet. This essence found its way into “Hot” the keychain Suletta carried. The decomposition of Quiet Zero’s massive bulk into particle form created a region of extraordinarily high Permet concentration in the surrounding space. Normally, Permet is inherently unstable and readily breaks down without systems to maintain it. However, within this newly formed “Permet Sea,” Suletta accomplished something remarkable: she successfully stabilized the volatile Permet into crystal form, enabling Ericht’s consciousness to transfer into Hot. In other words, without Quiet Zero’s dissolution, preserving Ericht’s existence would have been impossible.

Ok so Suletta and Ericht literally performed magic to free Ericht from Quiet Zero.

[kaywavy]

transforming soffits reorganizing keys formalizing immersion joints justifying kick extractors advising aggregates managing elbows recasting connectors achieving aluminum trowels officiating disks exhibiting absolute spigots progressing coil hydrants jerry-building reflectors informing casters inventing rubber hoists performing wrenches judging chalk adapters upgrading ignition paths

regrowing flashing recommending ratchets approving barriers sweeping impact fillers sewing mirrors detailing collectors enforcing measures distributing systems presenting plugs interwinding registers piloting ash diffusers gathering cranks supplying eave pockets undertaking scroll stops accelerating straps designing fittings protecting diamond boilers logging downspouts correlating shingles uniting mallets qualifying electrostatic lifts sharing clamps obtaining circular fluids ranking foundation gauges sensing miter brackets originating space networks translating drills regulating guards selecting gable padding utilizing pellet dowels reconciling artifacts altering pulleys shedding space filters determining vents representing mortar remaking flash rakers supporting funnels typecasting rotary chocks expressing junctures resetting auxiliary vises professing strip treads inlaying matter trowels questioning drivers forming edge fittings sketching blanks overshooting spark breakers rewriting controls playing tunnels inventorying buttons enduring joint handles effecting ratchet bibbs unwinding couplings forsaking vapor conduits defining sockets calculating heaters raising grids administering tiles measuring resources installing ignition remotes extracting corners manufacturing ventilators delegating consoles treating mounting stones enacting jig deflectors intensifying alleys improvising cargo pinpointing bobs prescribing arc masonry structuring metal chucks symbolizing lathes activating plumb kits adapting coatings fixing channels expediting cordage planning compressors enlisting hangers restructuring keyhole augers shearing ridge hardware collecting reciprocating bolts maintaining corrugated dimmers whetting hole collars conducting mandrels comparing assets compiling sealants completing paths composing equivocation wheels computing dampers conceiving electrostatic treatment ordering cotter grates organizing ties orienting ladders exceeding materials targeting thermocouples demonstrating emery stock expanding latch bases training wardrobe adhesives overcomming[sic] fasteners streamlining storm anchors navigating springs perfecting turnbuckles verifying gate pegs arbitrating arithmetic lifts negotiating outlets normalizing strips building surface foggers checking key torches knitting grinders mowing planers offsetting stencils acquiring bulbs adopting rivets observing avenues ascertaining coaxial grommets slinging wing winches instituting circuit generators instructing wicks integrating pry shutters interpreting immersion lumber clarifying coils classifying wood bits closing cogs cataloging matter strips charting holders conceptualizing push terminals stimulating supports overthrowing shaft spacers quick-freezing connectors unbinding ground hooks analyzing eyes anticipating gateways controlling proposition rollers converting power angles coordinating staples correcting benders counseling joist gaskets recording gutter pipes recruiting drains rehabilitating rafter tubes reinforcing washers reporting guard valves naming freize sprues nominating rings noting straps doubling nailers drafting circuit hoses dramatizing flanges splitting framing compounds refitting stems interweaving patch unions placing sillcocks sorting slot threads securing mode cutters diverting catharsis plates procuring load thresholds transferring syllogism twine directing switch nuts referring time spools diagnosing knobs discovering locks dispensing hinges displaying hasps resending arc binders retreading grooves retrofitting aesthetics portals seeking stocks shrinking wormholes assembling blocks assessing divers attaining lug boxes auditing nescience passages conserving strikes constructing braces contracting saw catches serving installation irons recognizing fluxes consolidating fuse calipers mapping shims reviewing chop groovers scheduling lag drives simplifying hoists engineering levels enhancing tack hollows establishing finishing blocks

[notwiselybuttoowell]

The vast majority of governments are likely to miss a looming deadline to file vital plans that will determine whether or not the world has a chance of avoiding the worst ravages of climate breakdown.

Despite the urgency of the crisis, the UN is relatively relaxed at the prospect of the missed date. Officials are urging countries instead to take time to work harder on their targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions and divest from fossil fuels.

Simon Stiell, the UN’s top climate official, said in a speech in Brazil on Thursday: “Because these national plans are among the most important policy documents governments will produce this century, their quality should be the paramount consideration … Taking a bit more time to ensure these plans are first-rate makes sense, properly outlining how they will contribute to this effort [to tackle the climate crisis] and therefore what rewards they will reap.”

New national plans on emissions cuts are urgently needed because current targets are dangerously inadequate. The world must cut carbon by about half this decade, relative to 1990 levels, to have a chance of limiting temperature rises to 1.5C above preindustrial levels, the important threshold that scientists fear is already out of reach.

Governments are working to blueprints set out four years ago that would result in temperature rises of 2.6C to 2.8C by the end of the century, according to the UN’s environment programme. Poor countries want to see far faster action from the G20 group of the biggest developed and emerging economies, which are responsible for about 80% of global emissions.

Ilana Seid, Palau’s ambassador to the UN and the chair of the Alliance of Small Island States, said: “It is essential that the G20 and other large emitters exhibit their leadership with new [national plans] that show ambitions and tangible progress. We need deep, rapid and sustained reductions commensurate with the 1.5C goal. In this time of unprecedented climate crisis, more than ever we need enhanced international cooperation to truly move the dial forward.”

Under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, every five years countries must submit detailed plans – called nationally determined contributions (NDCs) – with clear targets on cutting emissions, or curbing them in the case of poorer countries. These are then discussed at a “conference of the parties” (Cop).

Last time, the deadline was in effect extended by a year: the Cop26 conference in Glasgow was postponed from November 2020 to 2021 because of the Covid-19 pandemic. This time, the deadline is technically 10 February – nine months before the Cop30 summit in Brazil this November – but with only a handful of countries so far having submitted plans, it looks likely that most will miss it.

Stiell has urged countries to file their submissions before September, when experts will prepare an official “synthesis report” showing whether the aggregated plans are sufficient to meet the 1.5C limit.

One of the last acts of Joe Biden as US president was to submit a new NDC, but that is now largely symbolic. It will stand as a benchmark for those US states, local governments and businesses that maintain their climate commitments in defiance of the federal government.

Given the impetus in the US behind renewable energy, electric vehicles and other low-carbon technologies, its emissions trajectory may not alter much under Trump for some time. But the impact of his return will be felt far beyond the country’s borders: petrostates and economies that have been laggards in cutting emissions may take cover from his shredding of climate commitments.

Paul Bledsoe, a former Clinton White House climate adviser now with American University’s Center for Environmental Policy, warned: “Tragically, Trump’s re-election will not only mean the temporary curtailment of US climate ambition, but it will take some pressure off China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and other major traditional scofflaw emitters, who are likely to offer less ambitious NDCs than had Democrats won last November.”

China holds the key to Cop30: it is the world’s biggest emitter by a wide margin and responsible for almost a third of global carbon output – more than all of the developed countries combined. It has invested heavily in renewable energy, and the past two years have broken records in additional clean power generation capacity, with that pace likely to continue this year.

Yet emissions are still rising, albeit at a much slower rate. To meet the global carbon budget would require China to cause its emissions to peak this year, then fall by about a third by 2035. Such drastic cuts are possible, experts say. Li Shuo, the director of the China climate hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said: “We believe China is very well positioned to achieve that goal, based on its very rapid low carbon development.”

Whether China grasps those opportunities will be a political decision. Within Beijing’s top echelons of power, tumultuous arguments rage between those who want to push harder still for the burgeoning green economy, and the advocates of coal. Calculations of the impact of Trump, and his tariffs, will fuel those disagreements further.

“The US backsliding is definitely not good news for China’s climate ambition and global climate action,” Shuo said. “But China is at the very forefront of the low-carbon economy, which is already yielding a lot of benefits. And China wants to project stability and predictability, on the international stage.”

China was at a similar crossroads nearly a decade ago: in early 2016, analysts estimated that China’s emissions may have already peaked. Instead, the country made a sharp reversal by returning to coal-fired power. That process began before the election of Trump in November 2016 but was confirmed by his anti-China stance. Could Trump’s second ascendancy trigger a similar retrenchment? “I would not rule out a return to coal,” Shuo said.

India, the world’s fifth largest economy and third biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, will also be closely watched. After the gavel came down at Cop29 in November, India’s negotiator criticised the $1.3tn climate finance deal agreed there as a “travesty of justice” and “betrayal” of developing countries.

Solar and wind power are thriving in India, which is the world’s third biggest producer of renewable energy. But the powerful coal lobby enjoys favour with the authoritarian prime minister, Narendra Modi, who argues that developed countries must take responsibility for cutting emissions while the developing world should expand its carbon footprint.

Climate diplomats told the Guardian it was likely India would frame its targets in terms of emissions intensity rather than absolute cuts to carbon – that is, reducing the amount of carbon per unit of GDP.

For most of the past two decades, the EU has led the world on climate ambition. This year, however, with a populist backlash across the continent threatening the environmental consensus, the two biggest champions – France and Germany – are in the throes of political crisis, and several other governments have taken a rightwing and anti-climate turn. The bloc is not expected to reach agreement on its NDC until this summer.

Japan’s prospective NDC has been criticised by campaigners as too weak but it has not yet been submitted. Canada is facing elections after the resignation of Justin Trudeau, and Australia is also gearing up for political fights over climate in the long run-up to its election.

There is little hope of strong NDCs from two of the biggest climate influencers among the G20: Russia and Saudi Arabia. Neither country is likely to commit to significant cuts, although both are nominally signed up to a net zero target.

Even if China, India, the EU and some other G20 states come forward with relatively strong NDCs, the chances that they will add up globally to the drastic emissions cuts needed to keep the 1.5C target safe are small. Rachel Kyte, the UK’s climate envoy, said: “When you add up all the NDCs, my expectation is they may not get us back on track.”

But this need not be the disaster it might appear, she added, as the NDCs could be negotiated and updated. For instance, some NDCs were likely to contain a range of possible targets, some of which might be conditional on countries receiving finance or other support. “These are not static [documents], and the targets are floors, not ceilings,” she said.

Quite how dynamic countries are prepared to be is up for debate. At Cop26, countries – in theory – agreed that NDCs should be updated more often than every five years. But since then, few have increased the level of ambition in their plans.

Even if ambition is lacking on the core carbon targets in NDCs, properly focused plans could offer the world a breathing space by going beyond carbon to other greenhouse gases – chiefly methane. Global emissions of methane, which comes from agriculture and escapes from fossil fuel extraction sites, have been rising strongly in recent years, to the increasing concern of scientists, as methane is roughly 80 times more powerful at trapping heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide.

Cutting methane yields big rewards: halving methane would avoid a 0.25C rise in temperatures by 2030, one study found. Durwood Zaelke, the president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, said: “Methane is the emergency brake that can slow down warming enough to keep us from going over the cliff of irreversible tipping points. All countries need to target methane in their NDCs.”

Some countries already had policies on methane, which should be strengthened, and those without must put them in place, he said. “Our window to act is the next five years, 10 tops. If we don’t cut methane now, we’ll see the rate of warming continue to accelerate, and we’ll soon be past the first series of irreversible tipping points.”

[astrxlfinale]

HC; Relationship Ladder (In and outside of ships!)

A good talk I've had with a mutual lately really made me take a deeper dive into how Caelus operates. In particular, the way he fashions relationships, and often, how they're pretty clear cut for a mass majority of time despite the lack of the said element of time.

By nature he's a Trailblazer, a wanderer of the stars, someone who often is going to have experiences richer in essence for emotional value. This introduces a more aggregated variable upon the chart, as it's not how much time has been spent being on amiable terms that truly counts for him. Rather, it's the intensity of those moments, the richness, and how it translates to how much he actively invests into said people.

There's a more likely affinity he'll build his style of authentic relationships with those he actively shares journeys with. In many social fields he's naturally far removed (ironically enough in more normalized peace settings). That carries, it holds weight, and it shows in how much there's little hesitation to just invest if the feeling is right.

Caelus from his recreation is someone who doesn't have the backlog growth of younger years, teenage years and all of that in his active memory. He has firm knowledge that situates him as an adult, and at that point he simply takes it from there. A lot of what he's building is new and the decisions carved both by a greater design, and the natural line of resolve he has plays a good part.

So if I were to lay it out? He has the capacity to build those worthwhile bonds quicker, given the right circumstances. Intimate relationships, deep camaraderie, you name it. Time holds a more feeble hand whereas it wouldn't need a pack of years or too prolonged of a time to get things going, the value he places on that time shared reshapes the definition of Time itself.

This can play as to how you can easily confuse many the bonds he has likely lasting for years, but a good deal of things are a lot more recent than one would think. Caelus's character has the luxury/curse (depends on how you see it) of arriving at these thresholds thanks wholly to these opportunities.

So in kind, that means what's situated together is felt significantly deeper from his perspective too. This is where his certainly truly steps up to the plate when he's invested in someone.

Tl;DR: Slow-burn relationships are actually pretty hard to get active with him. They'd either pick up rarely, but in most normal angles of interaction, they're easily prone to falling off depending on the experience.

[online-shopping-app-chennai]

Can I Sell Online Without GST? GST Requirements for E-commerce

In 2024, the trend of e-commerce has transformed the way people shop and businesses operate online. Whether you're selling groceries, electronic items, or running a full-fledged online store, the question of GST (Goods and Services Tax) often arises. GST is a consumption tax levied on the supply of goods and services in Chennai, Tamilnadu designed to replace various indirect taxes. 

What is GST? 

GST is a comprehensive indirect tax on online store, sale, and consumption of goods and services throughout India, aimed at simplifying the tax structure on consumers. It is mandatory for businesses whose turnover exceeds specified thresholds to register under GST and comply with its regulations. 

You Need GST for Selling Online on Shocals 

The requirement for GST registration depends primarily on your turnover and the category of your business. Here are some key points to consider for GST: 

Threshold Limits: As of the latest information available, businesses with an aggregate turnover exceeding Rs. 40 lakhs (Rs. 10 lakhs for northeastern states) in a financial year must register for GST. This turnover includes all taxable supplies, exempt supplies, exports of goods and services, and inter-state supplies. 

Inter-state Tamilnadu Sales: If you are selling goods or services to customers in different states, you are likely to exceed the turnover threshold sooner. GST registration is mandatory for businesses making inter-state supplies, regardless of turnover. 

Mandatory Registration: Even if your turnover is below the threshold, you may choose to voluntarily register for GST. This can be beneficial for claiming input tax credits on purchases and improving your business credibility. 

Selling on Shocals Partners 

If you are selling through popular Shocals Partners, you need to understand the policies regarding GST compliance. It requires sellers to provide GSTIN (GST Identification Number) during registration and ensure compliance with GST laws. 

Steps to Register for GST 

If you decide to register for GST, here's a brief overview of the registration process: 

Prepare Documents: Keep your PAN (Permanent Account Number), proof of business registration, identity and address proof, bank account details, and business address proof. 

Online Registration: Visit the GST portal (www.gst.gov.in) and fill out the registration form with required details. Upload scanned copies of documents as specified. 

Verification: After submission, your application will be verified by the GST authorities. Once approved, you will receive your GSTIN and other credentials. 

Benefits of GST Registration 

While GST compliance involves maintaining proper accounting records and filing periodic returns, it offers several advantages: 

Input Tax Credit: You can claim credit for GST paid on your business purchases, thereby reducing your overall tax liability. 

Legal Compliance: Avoid penalties and legal repercussions by operating within the GST framework. 

Business Expansion: Facilitates smoother inter-state and international sales, enhancing business opportunities. 

Conclusion 

In conclusion, while small businesses and startups may initially wonder if they can sell online without GST, understanding the thresholds and benefits of GST registration is crucial. Compliance not only ensures legal adherence but also opens avenues for business growth and competitiveness in the digital marketplace. Whether you're a budding entrepreneur or an established seller, staying informed about GST requirements will help you navigate the e-commerce landscape more effectively. 

For more details please visit - https://partner.shocals.com/