btw not relevant at all but I still find Marx' and Engel's snark in their DMs about Hugo extremely funny
Marx to Engels
With the passing of time the war is assuming an unpleasant character. The French have not yet been thrashed enough, and the German asses have won far too many victories. Victor Hugo writes nonsense in French, and fair William abuses the German language (x)
Engels to Marx's son-in-law
That "unfathomable" and extremely chaotic Germany which has never existed outside Victor Hugo's imagination. The Germany which was supposed to be interested only in music, dreams and clouds, and which left the care of matters here below to the French bourgeois and journalists. (x)
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Since you like to say you’re always right, tell us what is next. You say you don’t make predictions, but you actually do, even if you don’t call them that.
Ok so I’m absolutely not always right. There have been some really big things I’ve been wrong about and a lot of small things too. And what I learned from that is to keep an open mind, and when I’m wrong about something, to figure out why I got it wrong and shift my world view in some ways to try to understand and guess better the next time. But it’s not even really about being able to guess. It’s about understanding when things happen. It is fun to be right on a guess though, when that happens.
The biggest thing I’ve learned, and luckily I learned it pretty early on in my time in this space, is that trying to figure out the timing something big will happen is absolutely a fools errand. And another thing to avoid is trying to come up with the exact, specific way Taylor (or others in her cinematic universe) will do something to get a point across. Like I can predict she will try to get a point across (set up a timeline, create a narrative, shore up a brand point) but I cannot predict exactly how or when she’ll do it. I also can predict she’ll set something up but then she never does. That’s because I think of lots of options. Some happen, some don’t. So this is the kind of thing I’m often wrong about. But I see them and always try to present them as options, not predictions. And if one of the options I think of happens, I have already spent time thinking about it, so it already makes sense to me.
I don’t know what’s next. She could drop TS11 at midnight. She could break up with Travis tomorrow, or announce her engagement next week. But I do not think any of those things is likely.
So here’s the closest thing you’ll ever get to me making a specific, timed prediction, because to me it seems quite clear:
What I do think is likely is that her jet will go to KC, ✅she’ll go to the game on Sunday✅, and her jet will then leave KC sometime between next Tuesday✅ and next Thursday. Why? Because it’s a home game, and she likes to go to home games and get the exposure and publicity that comes with that. She is working really hard at becoming an icon in KC, seem like her relationship is very serious for those who want to believe it’s serious, and she wants to shore up that relationship by spending time with him, his family, and his friends (also KC icons - the Mahomes mostly.)✅ All of this is so important to the story she’s creating. However, she won’t stay long ✅because that’s been her pattern. She also seems to be establishing that she also has her own busy, fabulous life✅ (she’s bejeweled and he lets her be✅) and when he’s busy with his football week (generally Tuesday-Sunday) he doesn’t have much time for her and she has her own life.✅This gives her the opposite option of the relationship being very serious. In other words it gives her an easy out for it to end. And Wednesday is her birthday. So she’ll either stay till Tuesday ✅and we’ll see or hear about birthday celebrations Sunday night/Monday, ✅then she’ll head out for further birthday celebrations with her other friends and family✅, or her jet will stay through her birthday, solidifying the seriousness of the relationship. But she will leave KC.✅ And then she’ll probably go to the game on Dec 17 in Boston✅. Why? Because it is a short hop from NYC, she has a huge fanbase there✅ and can expand it and shore it up, the patriots are bad so a win is likely✅, but they are a very popular team, so viewership (publicity) will be high✅. After that? Well she’s likely to spend more time in NYC✅/Nashville. Then she will probably go to the Christmas Day game in KC✅. This is a huge opportunity to “take the relationship to the next level” by spending the holidays together ✅, something the public absolutely loves to see and will further fuel the “engaged by the end of the year, after the Super Bowl at the latest” fire. Hopefully we’ll get something reputation-related for new years❌, so the extra publicity will help with that. Additionally all of this corresponds with the Eras film being released to streaming, another huge money making opportunity for her, and her attendance is an ad for the film.
After the new year, there will be some huge games with high viewership. They will be playing for playoff seeding. Then they almost assuredly will be in the playoffs✅. She will go to those games✅, which have even higher viewership, and will give her more free marketing for reputation and eras movie and anything else we don’t know about. After that, it will depend on how deep they go into the playoffs. They are no longer favored to be in the Super Bowl, but it is still a strong possibility✅. We all now know she can fly across the world after a concert to attend an event (she flew to the US during her time in SA, planned to a second time but couldn’t because of the events in Rio, and flew to London for 24 hrs for bey). The precedent has been set for her to fly from Tokyo to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl. ✅There is no bigger stage than the Super Bowl (outside of the World Cup final, if you’re thinking internationally.) The free marketing potential there is something that would be very hard for her to pass up. And if Travis isn’t playing, Jason’s team might be, and they can go together to support him. Imagine the potential of travlor in a suite together with mama and papa kelce cheering on a retiring Jason❌✅ . And even if neither of them are in the game, they could still all go together and stand in a suite as a big happy family in front of an audience of 115 million Americans. Why wouldn’t she do this?✅
Will all that happen for sure? Of course not. But you can see the logic, right? Will there be other things that happen that I haven’t thought of? Most likely.✅ I don’t actually have a crystal ball. What kinds of things could derail this? Well there’s always the possibility of the black swan, but a more likely scenario is they lose again against a team they should beat✅ and/or Travis has another bad game✅. There is a real danger of people turning on her as a distraction ✅and I think they have their fingers on the pulse of this very closely. As long as KC keeps winning, and there’s a good chance they will win the rest of their games, all will be smooth❌✅.
Also I am not even thinking beyond February. I have one interesting thought about it, but it’s just too speculative to even mention here. But as we move through the next two months, I’ll get clues to be able to guess at what will happen after she goes back on tour after the Super Bowl✅. And if I’m wrong about all of this, which I may very well be because she is notoriously unpredictable sometimes, I will simply take it as a learning opportunity to understand her better.✅
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Me being reminded of how Tallulah and Fundy are so different in how they have experienced love.
That Tallulah is so loved by her father since the first day he met her, by the immortal man that had taken up the responsibility and love her the same as his other children, by her brother so devoted to her happiness and protection, by so many people on the island. There is a community of people that love her, unconditionally by choice for who she is. That despite her flaws and her needs, they understand and cherish her so much for who she is. That she has never had to prove her worth or change for the people around her to receive that love. But the one she wants to love and misses, isn't there. And it is a terrible thing to be surrounded by love, but feeling like it isn't enough.
And then I am reminded of Fundy, who has never been able to find the love he craves for. That no matter how hard he has tried, over and over again, he ends up in the same desolate space he had begun upon. That he had to fight and do all the things that tore himself apart just to have a place to belong, giving up parts of himself to do so. He repeats the cycle, the same damned thing, making the same mistakes and choices. He tries to chase after phantoms and run away from them at the same time. That all he finds are empty spaces to occupy, and for some time, it is enough to distract him of its conditional nature. But eventually, he is and once again is he left devoid of the care and affection he desires so much from someone else. And it aches, his heart bleeds from all that rejection, by his father, his family and the friends and leaders and companions that he seeks for something missing in himself. But all his effort and who he was could never be enough to be both loved and respected. And that in trying, he has neither and fell apart in despair. So perhaps then, does that means he was never something that could be lovable, despite how he tries so hard to be.
And just something something about how love struggles in different ways, in both absence and overflow. Wanting and needing love as different things, trying to hold onto it, even if it hurts. So painful is it to have the capacity for love when life makes it so hard to do so, how much does it matter that the world is both one that gives and takes it in the same space.
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