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#yeah same like i never watched men’s football other than the world cup growing up bc the time zone difference is just so bad
erikkarlsson · 2 years
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i played football as a kid and i didn't follow the sport at all so when ever we talked about which players we liked i always said messi because he was like the only player i knew. today when i was half screaming at my tv i felt like i was transported back to that '09-'11 time when i was a messi fan as a coverup to avoid exposing myself to my team as someone who didn't know anything about professional football. seeing him win was like seeing an old friend win, what a game.
that’s beautiful thank you for sharing
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justalarryblog · 3 years
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📄 Hometown by @allwaswell16 (2k) | Not Rated
On the day Harry gets his driver’s licence, he drives through the suburbs, heartbroken that he can’t drive home to Louis.
📄 Overkill by @fivesecondsofmae (4k) | Explicit
Louis was never going to get over how fucking attractive Harry was. How glorious his big, tall, curvy body was. The feeling of Harry behind him, hot and heavy, trapped on the tube after they’d been somewhere during rush hour. His thick hands, full of pretty rings sometimes, handing Louis a cup of coffee, then getting one for himself.
Or Louis and Chubby!Harry are as close as best mates can be and clearly are in love. Time to take it to the next level.
Top!Harry smut and fluff.
📄 New Places, New Possibilities by orphan_account (12k) | Explicit
Harry has always longed for Louis from afar, never sure exactly what Louis wanted, or if they could even have what they wanted. Even though Louis would sneak into Harry’s bed every chance he could, they’d never gone further than cuddles and innocent kisses. But when the boys are finally away from home on their first visit to LA, things finally begin to change.
📄 In All Its Imperfections by @BriaMaria (15k) | Explicit
From: Louis Tomlinson
To: Undisclosed Recipients
Hello!
I’ve asked the front desk and you lovely folks are the ones who are on the same level as me in the car park. I found a to-do list today that looked somewhat important because it has lines of poetry scribbled at the bottom that seemed like they might be for a card project. The stationary has a moose in a canoe at the top of it (and he is quite adorable). Let me know if it’s yours!
Cheers!
“Oh. My. Fucking. God,” Harry whispered, his eyes darting over the sentences again willing them not to make sense. They did, they did make sense. “Oh. My. Bloody. Fucking. God.”
The next thing he knew he was on the floor, staring at the ceiling, with a very concerned Liam hovering over his head.
“What happened, mate?” Liam asked.
Harry just pointed to his computer.
Liam bent over Harry’s desk to read the email. “What? This isn’t bad. Is that your to-do list? Did you finally come up with the inside text for those cards?”
“Leeyum" he groaned. “It’s what’s on the list.”
“Oh,” Liam paused for a beat. “Is it dirty stuff?”
Harry nodded.
There was more silence. And then, “Dirty stuff with Louis?”
📄 If We Have Each Other by @pocketsunshineharry / ishiplouis (23k) | Mature
“When are you going to accept my offer to go out again? It’s been seven years and you’re still saying no to a fun night?” Niall complains.
“A night in with Mads is a fun night for me Ni, I already told you that.” Harry responds while serving a customer.
“You’re infuriating, I just want my best friend to go out with me tonight, is it too much to ask?” Niall pouts but all Harry does is chuckle and prepare the coffee machine for the double espresso the customer ordered.
“Playing the victim, are we now?” Harry is so used to Niall’s techniques. “Well, I have good news for you, Maddie is having a sleepover at one of her friends so tonight so I’m all yours.”
OR AU where Harry is a single father and a one-night stand is going to change his life forever.
📄 In Dreams by @dolce_piccante (23k) | Mature
AU. When Harry moves to a new city, his new flat come with a number of sweet, anonymous gifts and surprises that brighten his days. Could it be a friendly ghost? Another friendly presence in his new building is his tattooed neighbor, Louis, who seems determined to put a smile back on his face.
📄 Love Is on The Radio by @whatevertearsyou​ / perfectdagger (sincerelyste), @star_k (35k) | Explicit
“So Louis, who’s the lucky person that will not only get to see Arsenal and Manchester United facing each other, but will also possibly become your girlfriend… or boyfriend? I mean, that’s a good catch, to ask someone out like this on the radio. It will be hard to say no after this.”
“It’s, hm, his name is…” Oh boy, Harry was about to pass out, he couldn’t bear to hear what Louis would say. Susie was looking at him, worried eyes watching him from the till as she noticed that Harry had simply abandoned his cupcake duties. “Harry. Harry Styles.”
To win a pair of tickets to watch Manchester United playing, Louis may have possibly lied to Nick Grimshaw on the BBC Radio 1 Breakfast Show, asking Harry, his best friend, to be his boyfriend. Problem is - Harry has always been in love with Louis and so, this Valentine’s he’s gonna see his dreams come true, with a tiny bit of a twist, in order to watch the football team they have loved together since they were kids.
📄 That’s What I’m Here For by @taggiecb (46k) | Explicit
Louis Tomlinson is a dairy farmer on a tiny farm in eastern Canada. His wife of nearly thirty years has left him and his children are all grown up and out of the house. Louis needs help running his business but has no idea where to even start looking. Luckily for him his children know just the man for the job.
Part 1 of Grace, Too
📄 Pinkies Never Lie by @alltheselights (83k) | Explicit
“I just think if we’re both into it and neither of us is looking for something serious, why not?” Harry asks, eyes soft and voice sweet. He pauses and gives Louis a moment or two to answer.
There are countless reasons why Louis shouldn’t agree to this, but in the end, none of them really matter. This will end with Louis in pieces, but he’s been in love with Harry for four years. There was only ever one answer.
“Yeah,” Louis answers finally, hoping his voice sounds normal. “Why not?”
AU in which Louis hates his job and loves Harry, Harry just wants a distraction, everyone else wants them to get their shit together, and Louis learns the hard way that new beginnings are only possible when something ends.
Part 1 of Pinkies Never Lie
📄 Dress you up in my love by @LucyStarkid (103k) | Explicit
Harry is single, and more than anything wants to find love. Agreeing to sign up to a dating website was a bad, bad idea. Niall’s bad, bad idea. Louis is single, but has no interest in relationships. Or so he tells himself. ??Harry is a lawyer, his boss, Nick, happens to give him a bonus, which he decides to splurge on a new work wardrobe. Louis is a frustrated designer, working as a personal shopper at Selfridges. Louis happens to be working on the day a very beautiful, but out of his depth, new customer ambles into their department in need of advice. Louis might have just found the muse he never knew he was looking for.
Featuring: Sophia as Louis’ colleague, with a somewhat unhealthy obsession with his love life, whilst being oblivious when it comes to her own. Liam as the ‘IT bloke from downstairs’ with the mother of all crushes on Sophia. Niall as Harry’s sport’s writer flatmate who spends most of his time making Harry’s life as complicated as possible. Zayn as Louis’ flatmate and lifelong best friend, whose cat, Noodle/Princess/Princess Noodle loves Louis more than it loves him. And Nick as Harry’s boss and one of Louis’ regular customers: is Imelda Marcos reborn.
📄 amaryllis by @hattalove (146k) | Explicit
“Where are we?”
“Um. A little while out of London?” Niall tries, seemingly the only one willing to not be mysterious and provide Harry with information, and. Oh.
“London London? As in, the capital of England London?” he asks, just in case he’d misheard.
“No, the other London,” Louis laughs, low and biting. He comes closer finally, the moonlight just enough to reveal a sharp-cut jaw and pale skin. “Sorry, Pup.”
Nobody’s ever called Harry a “pup”. Frankly, he finds it quite insulting, but he lets it slide to try and comprehend his current crisis.
or the one where harry gets bitten by a werewolf. louis is the mysterious not-quite alpha, liam and zayn have Things going on, niall is their token human, and together, they watch a lot of TV.
📄 This Multiplicity of Powers by @helloamhere (149k) | Explicit
Maybe in another universe he isn’t different. Maybe he hadn’t been given an impossible choice. Maybe he wouldn’t have lost everything and broken everything and then fallen impossibly, irrevocably in love with the first next thing that was kind. Maybe in that universe he doesn’t feel like he’s never breathing, always pretending, teaching the kids even though they all have to learn alone, trying hard not to read the headlines, and so afraid, every day, that he won’t be a good enough teammate to the superhero he can’t live without. He knows that love isn’t supposed to feel this way, slid secret under your skin like a surgical razor, an invisible war held close over the tender vein that keeps you alive. On the other hand, Louis wonders, had he ever known how to do it any other way?
Maybe there’s a universe where he doesn’t have to keep all his secrets on the inside.
But this isn’t that universe.
//an X-Men AU.
📄 Have Faith In Me by @stylinsoncity (183k) | Mature
As the son of Anne Styles, millionaire owner of one of the world’s most luxurious fashion labels, Harry has spent his last seventeen years living in carefree extravagance. And now he’s grown tired of it, along with the pressure from his mum to follow in her footsteps and the constant care given to him by her past assistants.
When his mum’s newest assistant, Louis, moves into the guesthouse, Harry determines to be treated differently. To be treated like an adult. Except Louis is not at all what Harry was expecting…
This is a story about growing up, growing in love and having the faith to make it last.
📄 Built Memories by @fresharold (211k) | Mature
“It was a comet.
The boy saw the comet and he felt as though his life had meaning.
And when it went away, he waited his entire life for it to come back to him. It was more than just a comet because of what it brought to his life: direction, beauty, meaning.
There are many who couldn’t understand, and sometimes he walked among them. But even in his darkest hours, he knew in his heart that someday it would return to him, and his world would be whole again… And his belief in God and love and art would be re-awakened in his heart.
The boy saw the comet and suddenly his life had meaning.”
» where louis and harry after long years start over again. they’re strangers again and introduce themselves, they relearn what they already know and what they don’t know, come with new inside jokes, create new memories and give each other a second chance.
📄 Relief Next To Me by @dolce_piccante (333k) | Mature
AU. What happens when a baker and a graphic designer meet via a very specific Craigslist post? Fate, friendship, food, and maybe more.
✨You can also check my fic tags for more fics! ✨
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jordanmu · 6 years
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TAGGING: Harper Elliott, Wesley Harrison.
LOCATION: Wesley’s apartment.
TIMEFRAME: 2/16, evening.
WARNINGS: None.
NOTES: Incomplete Discord bc we’re lazy. Harper visits Wesley randomly and gets a little afraid he’s with someone else. Turns out he’s just a nerd.
HARPER ELLIOTT
Even though Harper should've probably remembered Wesley's streaming schedule, she just... didn't. Her life was incredibly hectic - from practice, working out, interviews and photoshoots, it felt as if it never stopped. She was constantly doing something, and all she wanted to do was hang out with Wesley. The two of them had slowly started getting close with one another, and Harper couldn't help but really start to feel something for him. After working out for two hours and a long hot shower, Harper made her way over to Wesley's apartment. She hadn't spent too much time at his apartment, but she figured that the two of them were slowly getting closer, and maybe it was a little much to show up out of nowhere, but Harper was nothing if not confident. She finally arrived at his door, knocking on it and hoping that he wasn't busy. Or even worse, that he wasn't with another girl. Harper hadn't thought about that, and then she thought that maybe she should've texted beforehand. Even so, she waited for Wesley to answer the door -- hopefully.
WESLEY HARRISON
Even though he was exhausted from being on his feet at the Nike store for what seemed like forever, Wesley knew that he was expected to stream tonight... even if he may not have wanted to. He'd sent out a tweet during his lunch break, asking what they wanted to see him play and the majority voted for a play-through of a game he had been putting off for months. And so, Wesley found himself on Saturday night slowly drinking a beer and playing Detroit: Become Human. Because he'd gotten into the game - why hadn't he played it before? - he didn't hear knocking on the door for a moment, eyes widening when he realized someone was actually at his door. Had he ordered something online and forgotten about it? After pausing the game and telling his viewers that he'd be right back, he quickly scrambled to the door, knocking over an empty beer bottle in the process and wincing as it almost shattered all over his floor. That was close. "Harper!" He exclaimed with a smile, looking back and making sure that the beer bottle hadn't, in fact, broken. "Hey! What're you doing here?"
HARPER ELLIOTT
As soon as Wesley opened the door to his apartment, it seemed like his was paying attention to something going on in his apartment. Harper realized suddenly that this definitely was a bad idea, and he most likely had another girl inside. It was Saturday night, and it had been silly of her to think that she was the only girl that he was talking to. He was a famous video game streamer, after all, and Harper knew that some girls went absolutely crazy over that. Harper frowned when he asked what she was doing there, feeling as if she was interrupting something. "Oh, I'm sorry.." She apologized, motioning back towards the parking lot, already turning around. "I thought I'd just stop by and say hi, you know? But if you're busy, that's fine. I can just be on my way." The two of them had only just started talking recently, so of course it wasn't something that she was going to hold against him -- though, it was upsetting, because she did really enjoy his company.
WESLEY HARRISON
"No! Harper, wait." Wesley took a step forward, grabbing her hand in his and leading her back to his apartment then closed the door behind them. He picked up the beer bottle from the floor and hastily placed it on the kitchen counter then motioned for her to follow him into his second bedroom, which he'd turned into his gaming room. "I'm in the middle of streaming" he explained, waving at the camera and chuckling to himself as he read the chat, his viewers growing impatient with him because he wasn't online. "Hey guys" he said after grabbing his headset and picking up his controller, "I've a beautiful girl here. While I would love to continue making terrible decisions and almost getting Connor killed, I think it's best if we pause for the rest of the night, yeah? I'll make it up to you by streaming tomorrow some time in the afternoon. How's that?" He read the chat, looking over at Harper with a sheepish smile; if he'd known she was coming over, he wouldn't have started streaming in the first place.
HARPER ELLIOTT
As soon as Wesley grabbed Harper’s hand, she felt at ease and all thoughts of another girl in his apartment faded away. He pulled her inside his apartment and she chuckled happily, just genuinely wanting to spend some time with him. Harper wanted to get to know him better, and if that meant talking on the couch for hours — she would most definitely do that. She stood by and watched with an amused grin as he apologized to his stream. She didn’t judge his job at all, impressed that he was doing something that he loved and was passionate about. Harper gave a wave towards his camera, and then stepped off frame as he finished up saying goodnight to his stream. “You know,” Harper frowned, taking a step towards him, slowly taking his gaming headphones off of him and setting them down gently on his desk. “You didn’t have to do that, you know. I could’ve come back another time. I just wanted to see you.” Harper paused, hoping that it wasn’t too much. They just recently only started talking to one another, so she didn’t know if that was okay just yet. “Is that weird? To show up randomly?”
WESLEY HARRISON
"Ah, they'll manage" Wesley replied, waving off her comment about coming over another time  - if she was there, he was going to focus on her and not streaming. Besides, he'd already promised them tomorrow; they couldn't get greedy. He feigned being deep in thought at her question, though almost immediately shook his head as he wrapped his arms low around her waist. "I'd rather have you here right now, you know" he replied simply, trying to ease her worries, "and it's not weird. Frankly, I probably would've done the same had I not been streaming tonight." He paused, remembering how she'd acted when he first opened the door, and looking at her curiously as his lips pulled downward into a small frown. "You were a little... upset when I opened the door, weren't you? I hope I didn't give you the impression that I was doing something - or someone - else in here."
HARPER ELLIOTT
“Really?” Harper asked, a smile tugging at the corner of her lips when he said that he’d rather spend time with her. It made her feel good, and she couldn’t help but want to reach up and kiss him. Instead, she was caught off guard by his question, hoping that he would’ve just written off her leaving like it was nothing.”I thought there might’ve been someone in here,” Harper told him honestly, wrapping her arms around his neck and tugging him a little bit closer. It was nice to stand like this with him, and Harper thought that she could get used to being in his arms. “And I wouldn’t be upset if there was. You know.. I just didn’t didn’t know if you were talking to anyone else.” It was a little bit embarrassing, but she actually would’ve been quite upset. She found herself really enjoying spending time with him, and kissing him? Even more so. He was a breath of fresh air and exactly what Harper needed, which is possibly why the thought of him talking to someone else sucked.
WESLEY HARRISON
Even though Wesley knew he had been acting a little shifty when he opened the door for her, he didn’t think her first thought would be that he had a girl there with him. In a way, it kinda made sense, though. They hadn’t really defined what was happening between them - it was casual, teetering on the verge of serious but with no true definition. Of course she’d figure that as a single guy, he was keeping his options open. The thing was, though, that he wasn’t that kind of guy. His father had been like that, apparently, and he didn’t want to be messing around for the hell of it. “I’m not talking to anybody else...” he said softly and slowly, so she would understand him better, “just you. I promise.” Wesley then kissed the tip of her nose, hoping she would believe that. “I’m sorry for making you think that.”
HARPER ELLIOTT
Harper couldn’t help the smile on her face as Wesley promised her that she was the only one he was talking to. She nodded, keeping her eyes trained on him. They hadn’t ever been able to have the conversation of how serious things were. At least they were on the same page of not talking to anyone else. Harper shrugged, pressing their foreheads together, their lips barely brushing together. “It’s okay. But, if you were curious..” Harper trailed off, kissing him and letting it linger for a moment, sighing happily. It was nice to kiss him after the week she’d had, honestly. “I’m only talking to you too.”
WESLEY HARRISON
The thing was that Wesley was sure Harper could be seeing a number of other guys or girls instead of him. She was attractive, an athlete, and about to head to France to compete in the Women's World Cup. Though he knew that women's football wasn't as popular as men's, he also knew that the Americans cared a whole hell of a lot more for their women's team than their men's. All in all, she was a catch. And what was he? A guy who worked at the Nike Store? A video game streamer? He wasn't exactly blowing the socks off of people with his career choices. "You could be, though" he whispered, feeling slightly insecure, "and... look at you. I wouldn't blame you if you were." But, he smiled, thankful that she wasn't talking to others and was instead just talking to him. "I'm a bit selfish, though. I'm glad you aren't since I kind of want you all to myself."
HARPER ELLIOTT
"I could be, yeah," Harper chuckled, thinking of all the different men and women who tried to talk to her. It happened quite often, but most times it was only because they liked the fact that she was a semi-popular athlete. Wesley liked her exactly for who she was, and that's what she liked about him. She couldn't hide her blush when he complimented her, rolling her eyes as if it didn't really get to her that much -- even though it is. Harper kissed him again happily, glad to know that the two of them were on the exact same kind of page. "You can have me all to yourself," she muttered against his lips, feeling silly for believing that he was the kind of guy to talk to several girls at once. Then again, Harper was used to athletes and most of the time they were anything but sweet. Wesley Harrison, however, was on a whole different level. "So now that I've officially crashed your job..." Harper scrunched her nose, taking his hand in her own. "Is there anything we can do?"
WESLEY HARRISON
"All to myself?" Wesley asked, smiling as he pulled away slightly so he could look at her, knowing she was being honest and that she wasn't hanging out with anybody else - just him. His smile grew before he leaned in to kiss her again, his lips lingering for a moment before pulling again once more. At her words, Wesley chuckled and squeezed her hand, biting his tongue as to not say a dirty comment. It wasn't the time. "Well, I'm thinking we could order some takeout and watch a movie, yeah? The Chinese around here is bloody brilliant, but so is the deep dish pizza. I'm honestly okay with either, so you can choose whichever sounds best." He hummed, lips pursed as he feigned being in deep thought. "And then once the movie's over, I'd like to kiss you quite a bit. Or during the movie, I'm not picky." Wesley paused, looking around because she had said once upon a time she didn't know much about video games. "I can teach you how to play as yourself on FIFA too, how's that?"
HARPER ELLIOTT
It seemed as if Wesley was more than happy to spend the evening with her, and Harper found herself grinning at the thought of spending a lazy night in with him. “Yes, yes. To all of that, really.” She chuckled, taking his hand in her own and interlocking their fingers. It was nice to be able to start a relationship from the very beginning. It felt new and refreshing. “I’m feeling Chinese tonight. Though, to be honest.. I’d probably always choose Chinese, no matter what.” Harper shrugged, quirking her eyebrow when he mentioned that he’d like to teach her how to play video games. She wanted to know more about his world, and playing as herself would be more than amusing. Harper kissed the corner of his mouth, smiling softly. “And you know, I’m okay with kissing you whenever. Before the movie, during, after..” She trailed off, finally catching his lips in yet another kiss. “And then some more after that. Especially if you’re going to be beating my butt in video games all night.”
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junker-town · 4 years
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What is the world’s best soccer rivalry?
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Photo via Getty Images / Illustrated by Karyim Carreia
We discussed our favorite rivalries from best ever to most underreated.
While rivalries are a staple of literally every sport, a solid argument can be made that no group of fans has embraced them quite like soccer. There are, of course, plenty of local “derbies” around the globe, but what differentiates soccer is how many of the rivalries are international.
In honor of Rivalry Week, we recently assembled some of the greatest soccer minds from around SB Nation to discuss their favorites.
Here is who participated: Donald Wine II, Stars and Stripes FC Gill Clark, Barca Blaugranes Kudzi Musarurwa, Dirty South Soccer Rob Usry, Dirty South Soccer Mark Kastner, Sounder at Heart and Liverpool Offside Eugene Rupinski, FMF State of Mind Aaron Lerner, The Short Fuse Tito Kohout, (Viola Nation) Brent Maximin (The Busby Babe)
El Clásico might be the best rivalry overall but does it ever live up to the hype?
Donald Wine II: The history between Real Madrid and Barcelona is off the charts, and it, to me, is the biggest and best in the world. Each match is epic, features some of the world’s greatest players, and is never short of drama. What other match have people scrambling to find out how to obtain beIN Sports for one day?!
Gill Clark: The thing is it very, very rarely fails to deliver. There are almost always goals (this season’s 0-0 was the first since 2002 — almost 20 years) and usually a red card or two and sometimes even a pig’s head chucked from the stands.
Donald Wine II: When you think about some of the world’s greatest players of all time, many of them have played in this rivalry: Leo Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Ronaldo, Ronaldinho, Figo, Samuel Eto’o. I remember a few weeks ago we were doing that game of name a starting XI with greats that didn’t play for the same club, and Real and Barca blew everyone’s starting XIs up, lol.
Eugene Rupinski: For people who swear sports aren’t political, they should look into the history of Barça-Real Madrid. It’s part of what makes it such a big deal.
Aaron Lerner: Yeah — there are big time politics wrapped up in El Clásico, and that gets pretty ugly. Catalan separatism versus Francoist-influenced Spanish nationalism is still very much alive and kicking.
Donald Wine II: Hell, the 0-0 draw that was mentioned was postponed from its original date because of Catalan protests that threatened the security of the stadium. It ended up being played in December instead of October. They’re also two of the richest clubs in the world, and they consistently earn the most revenue.
On an internal SB Nation survey Boca-River showed up a lot, even though it’s probably a rivalry that a lot of general sports fans don’t know about. Anyone want to explain what makes it special?
Kudzi Musarurwa: The passion from the fans and the players is something that’s barely replicated anywhere else in the world. When people say football can be life or death, I always think of this rivalry and agree.
Rob Usry: There’s no doubt that Boca-River is a fantastic rivalry, but at what point can a rivalry be too intense? I feel like if there’s a legitimate threat of someone dying anytime the two teams play then it might be too out of control.
Aaron Lerner: The level of hatred between Boca-River and their fans is off the charts. Not to glorify supporter clashes in any way, but that derby led to wide-scale riots and a match being moved literally out of the country.
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Photo by Marcelo Endelli/Getty Images
Mark Kastner: Didn’t they have to move the final between them to Madrid last year?
Aaron Lerner: Yes. They moved it across a literal ocean.
Donald Wine II: Boca-River is INTENSE as hell. You can feel the passion in any stadium. It may be too intense. It’s because of these matches that Argentina banned fans at away matches nationwide. But, that passion can be felt in your soul through your TV set or computer.
Eugene Rupinski: CABJ vs. River is probably the biggest rivalry on this side of the planet. It’s gotten very ugly at times, but it is an unfortunate reflection of the passion and intensity of the fans. Everyone knows the weight of those games; the players, fans, hinchas, fans across the globe and casual observers. You know how much that game means when it comes around.
Aaron Lerner: River Plate-Boca Juniors is intertwined with soccer identity in Argentina. You may have your own team, but you’re for one or the other. It touches politics, economics; that derby has tendrils wrapped up in everything in the country.
Donald Wine II: Also, I think sometimes the stadiums and atmosphere can help make a rivalry. When someone asks for a list of stadiums they most want to see a match in, La Bombonera is on just about everyone’s list. When someone asks for a list of stadiums they most want to die in, is at the top of everyone’s list.
Brent Maximin: Boca vs. River is the derby that is on most football fan’s bucket list. The history of the fixture, the relative quality of both teams over the years, and of course the fan experience.
What are the best rivalries on the women’s side either on the international or club level?
Donald Wine II: The USWNT’s biggest rivalry is Canada, then Mexico. But lately they haven’t been great rivals because they get smoked all the time. I will say, budding rivalries are forming with England and France, though.
Eugene Rupinski: The thing with international women’s soccer is that the US has almost always been the top dog and there’s been a rotating cast trying to knock them off but no one has been able to sustain it.
I think one to watch will be the US vs. Mexico. The US is unquestionably the best in the world and it’s not really close. Mexico though has put a lot of money and time and effort into growing and professionalizing the women’s game and it’s starting to pay off. Players are going to Europe to play and Mexico has also utilized the US collegiate system and dual nationals to bolster the program.
Aaron Lerner: It’s more of a past rivalry now, but on the women’s side, I’d shoutout Norway-U.S.A. Norway handed the USWNT their first big defeat on the international stage (and went on to win that ‘95 Women’s World Cup). For a few years, they were a bonafide rival to our women, and that rivalry served as my introduction to women’s international soccer.
Kudzi Musarurwa: During the Pia days, the USWNT’s rivals were Sweden. That rivalry lasted until last year to be honest.
Rob Usry: France/USWNT is my personal favorite. Feel like every game between them is top quality. But I can’t justify it as the best since it’s still fledgling.
Or USWNT vs. US Soccer.
Donald Wine II: LOL, he’s right though.
Tito Kohout: To piggyback on Rob, really any women’s team against the absurd levels of incompetent sexism rampant throughout the sport.
For the women in Serie A, I’ll submit Fiorentina-Juventus. The men’s side carried over, plus there’s the fact that Fiorentina had the first pro(-ish because Italy) women’s team attached to a men’s club and won a bunch of trophies before Juve added one of their own, outspent them, and have become the best team on the peninsula.
Donald Wine II: Real Madrid just picked up a women’s team last year, and it was officially renamed Real Madrid last week. When I last spoke with club president Florentino Perez last summer, he said the club’s intent was to put €20 million into salaries for the women’s team in an effort to be on the level of Barca and Atletico Madrid immediately. So, look for those rivalries to grow in intensity.
Eugene Rupinski: I think Tigres vs. Monterrey is probably the best though. They average a crazy amount of fans, and have won more stars than other team in Liga MX Femenil.
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Photo by Andrea Jimenez/Jam Media/Getty Images
Mark Kastner: Liverpool Women vs. Fenway Sports Group (the club’s owner).
Aaron Lerner: Michelle Akers vs. anybody who tried to come through the center of the U.S. formation.
What are your favorite international rivalries?
Mark Kastner: Messi-era Argentina vs. trying to win a big tournament has been very enjoyable. It always starts with promise but ends up in crushing defeat
Tito Kohout: Most of the South American ones feel really intense to me, especially the ones involving Argentina and Brazil.
Brent Maximin: Argentina-Brazil. Even if it very often failed to live up the hype, those two nations live and breathe football and for decades each has claimed to have THE best player of all time. THE number 10.
Donald Wine II: US-Mexico is my favorite, but other great ones are Argentina-Brazil and England-Germany, though with England-Germany, we don’t get it as often.
Gill Clark: I go with Netherlands vs. Germany because they really can’t stand each other.
Ronald Koeman wipes his bum with Olaf Thon's West Germany shirt at Euro ’88.. IMAGINE THAT HAPPENED THESE DAYS pic.twitter.com/tcX8iqtBiA
— Footy Accumulators (@FootyAccums) June 10, 2016
Rob Usry: I tried to think of one that isn’t obviously biased. But couldn’t come up with one. Mexico-USA is always high stakes and intense (unless it’s a cash-grab friendly). The bragging rights for each set of fan bases is precious. Surely there are better quality rivalries in Europe and Brazil-Argentina is great. But Mexico-USA is just a step below the World Cup as far as importance goes.
Tito Kohout: I think that all of the ones that involve crazy non-sports relationships (USA-Mexico, Ireland-Northern Ireland, DPRK-South Korea, Greece-Turkey, etc.) are probably the craziest to me just because of all the off-field stuff that gets packed in too.
Feel like any UEFA matches involving England could get really weird after Brexit, too.
Gill Clark: England vs. Argentina is probably worth a shout. There’s the Maradona handball, the Beckham sending off, Michael Owen’s goal (22 years ago today!) and obviously the history between with two countries.
Tito Kohout: I think part of it is that internationals are less common and that the quality of play is frequently lower because they don’t have as much time to train together, too. Seems like it leads to a lot of really tense, ugly games. Not sure if those result in more fan badness than really “good” games, but that’d be sort of interesting to look at.
Kudzi Musarurwa: Ooo, I just remembered a major international one-two: Egypt vs. Algeria or Egypt vs. Tunisia. I remember the AFCON held in Egypt (iirc) and it was the fiercest international rivalry I’d seen in a long time. Those countries hate each other
Donald Wine II: The North African ones are great. Throw in the Nigeria-Ghana-Ivory Coast-Cameroon battles that have been around forever. Ghana, FWIW, might be America’s second rival if you poll fans.
Australia-New Zealand back in the day when they both ruled Oceania.
What are some other rivalries we love?
Liverpool vs. Manchester United
Mark Kastner: Liverpool vs. Manchester United is a derby that transcends just football. It’s two cities that have a lot in common but have some very distinct differences in their approaches to life and football. Both teams have dominated English football during different decades, defining what we think about the game. The matches themselves are always really tense and full of passion. It’s wild that we’ve only ever had one title race between the two teams.
Liga MX’s América vs. Chivas
Eugene Rupinski: For me, it’s Liga MX’s América vs. Chivas. The two clubs who have more stars on their shirt than anyone else. The two most watched clubs in North America. It’s the cultural rivalry between Mexico City and Guadalajara and the rivalry of a diverse lineup against one made entirely of Mexican players with the pageantry of the American Super Bowl (at least) twice a year. Is it the fiercest in the world? No. Is it the most hyped? No. But it is the one that to me is the best because of what it means to so many in both the US and Mexico.
What about some underrated rivalries?
Donald Wine II: For an underrated rivalry, gimme the Soweto Derby (South Africa’s Kaizer Chiefs vs. Orlando Pirates). Kaizer Chiefs is a team with American roots (the founder named it after the Atlanta Chiefs, who he left Orlando Pirates to play for before returning to South Africa to start the Chiefs) and each match is fierce on the field and in the stands.
Mark Kastner: Notable shout for Portland vs. Seattle in MLS. Any time you have a player rip up a referee’s notebook IN A GAME, the rivalry must be intense.
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Tell us about your favorite rivalries in the comments below!
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itsadrizzit · 7 years
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football ask: 1, 2, 8, 20
1. Which team do you support?
Ohhhhh…buddy, is this a hard question. Honestly, my SO jokingly said “that depends on what day it is” and then we realised that’s not actually a joke.
Okay…like the only team I will likely forever remain unwavering in my support of always and forever is Feyenoord Rotterdam, no matter how ragingly out of control the dumpster fire surges. Feyenoord is my fam and (as one of my favourite bands sings) “they might be crazy, but they is my family”. I’ll defend them to the death. Feyenoord is the football hill I will die on.
Others: I’ve been a Manchester United fan since a very long time ago (see response to question 8). I never wanted to be a Spurs fan, but they grabbed ahold of me many years ago and refused to let go. Same thing with Real Madrid. I keep trying to quit them. I keep failing. Those are the three clubs I will watch with some degree of regularity. I have a lot of other clubs that I take at least a passive interest in for one reason or another.
2. Why did you start supporting your team?
I’ll answer this in respect to Feyenoord although I have interesting stories about most of the clubs I support. Usually it’s due to no geographic proximity, but because I liked a player and I either tracked them there or I discovered them there and then I kept liking players and then liking other players and now it stuck. I wrote an article about it once.
So, Feyenoord. Rotterdam. City without a Heart. City of my heritage (part of it). City I love. Although Feyenoord wasn’t my local club (per se) it is the most exciting of the three Rotterdam clubs–Feyenoord, Sparta, Excelsior. The big club (I also wrote an article about how I’m a sucker for big clubs). Honestly, I really like Excelsior, which was a partner club of Feyenoord and where a lot of the Feyenoord youth players (AKA Varkenoord) got more regular playing time, although that’s over now and the two are rivals. Excelsior gives me all those lower-league feels I love so much. They were the smallest club in town. They (still) play in a 4500 seat stadium even though they are now in the Eredivisie (top-level), all of which I love (plus, don’t think I don’t dig this completely coincidental X-Men reference). But Feyenoord is the people’s club. The support of the city behind them. Their stadium, De Kuip, is full of energy and noise and excitement and everything that makes you feel alive. Their supporters are…not always fabulous, but they are dedicated and they love their club and they LOVE football. If you ever get a chance to watch a match at De Kuip, whether in person or on television or just on dodgy YouTube videos, give it a go. 
Honestly, it’s funny, because usually that sort of atmosphere is what keeps me away. Like I hate all the noise and the road flares and the excess. I love Excelsior because it feels more like watching a match with a few mates. But there’s just something about Feyenoord that drew me in and made me love them. The buzz around them. It’s been said that in the Netherlands you either like Ajax or you like Feyenoord, no matter where you’re from. That’s not strictly true, especially with the promotion to top flight of all three Rotterdam clubs and the recent successes of PSV Eindhoven and occasionally AZ Alkmaar, but it used to be true. And really, no matter where you’re from, I think it’s true that you do have to pick a side. It’s funny because I love Tottenham Hotspur who have so regularly gotten players from Ajax and it’s this magic transformation each time of “okay, I love you now” when a month before I was like…”I CANNOT STAND YOU, YOU ARE THE WORST.” (Not strictly true, I appreciated their talents and it hurt more that they were being used in support of the enemy). But it’s true that most people can name more Ajax players than Feyenoord players. But more people have heard of Amsterdam than Rotterdam. It’s fine. No one is salty about that……
8. Favourite all-time player.
This is another where I at first went…oh this is so hard and then said, wait, no it isn’t. And then SO was like “who is it” and I made him guess and he said David Beckham. And I said…oh, I guess it is hard because that’s not who I was going to say.
But then I thought about it and yeah, it is. Because honestly I didn’t really grow up caring about football. I didn’t live in a house where anyone watched football. I played it with friends, etc. but never in any organised way–just because I had (male) friends that played competitively and I would play with them sometimes because it was fun and they said I was good at it, especially for someone who hadn’t ever learned to play/watched the game. When I was growing up, and especially in my family, football wasn’t a thing girls did. There’s so much more support now for the women’s game than there was decades ago when I was a child, and I’m glad of it. I sometimes wish that had been there for me because I think I would have taken to it a lot earlier and really tried to be competitive at it. But that’s a digression.
The answer is that the emergence of David Beckham into the world stage is what made me put my head up and pay attention to football. A good friend of mine happened to be going to school in Manchester around the time Beckham was with Manchester United (after his loan to Preston) and he would send me letters (and emails once we emerged into the technology age) about matches and watching them in the pubs with friends, etc. It all sounded terribly exciting. Then the World Cup happened in 1998 and my attention was fully gathered. I dove headfirst into that World Cup. I let it consume me. I didn’t care that my family was openly mocking my love of football or that they would try to come in and actively turn the channel to something else. I was consumed. I was hooked. I was in. And most of that was because I LOVED watching David Beckham.
Looking back on it now, was he the best player? Not by a long shot. But he had that magnetism that just sort of drew you in. I was still young enough (although not that young) to be drawn in to his good looks. But the way he played football was what I fell in love with. I loved watching him with the ball at his feet. I loved his free kicks. 
Beckham is why I became a Manchester United supporter. He is why I became a a Madridista. He is why I will always love a good midfielder–especially one who is a marvelous crosser of the ball. He is why I always wanted to have Adidas shoes and nothing else. He is why, when I had my choice of where to go with school I chose England. He is so many things to me and I don’t know if I would be in the football world if it weren’t for him, for better or worse.
20. Favourite manager.
This one gave me trouble, because a lot of my once favourite managers have fallen out of favour recently.
I used to be a huge supporter of Ronald Koeman and his work at Feyenoord (the whole Janssen situation aside, although that should have been a red flag for me), but his recent presence in the media and handling of things at Southampton and Everton have sort of left me questioning.
I (unpopular opinion time) was a HUGE supporter of Andres Villas-Boas throughout his time as a manager. In fact, I was hugely excited when he came to Spurs (and, honestly, look at the players the club brought in under his management and tell me he didn’t do SOMETHING right). Honestly, I had given in and become a Spurs fan before AVB showed up, but I was really excited when they announced his taking over (and I know most of you weren’t around and following me on Tumblr back then, but if you go back in the archives you can see my Tumblr meltdown when Spurs fired him in which I spent many days being nearly inconsolable). I still hold that he was a good manager, and I liked his management style. I didn’t think he deserved to be let go at the time and I still feel that way.
I love Jurgen Klopp. Mostly because he amuses the heck out of me, but also because I think he’s a good manager. He’s not always the best tactically, but he has personality and I think for the most part players respect him. I like watching him. I like watching teams he manages (although I do not actually *like* any of the teams he’s managed, so….)
Zinedine Zidane. This one is weird because I gave Real Madrid SO MUCH SIDE-EYE for hiring Zizou as their manager, but WOW did it work out. Players that historically had little to no respect for managerial authority seem to readily work for him with minimal complaints. He has vision. He understands the game. He understands how to manage personnel. Most importantly, he understands how to navigate the political nightmare that is Real Madrid, and I have a hell of a lot of respect for what he’s come in and done at that club (love affair with Karim Benzema aside…)
Thanks! This was fun!!!!
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jeroldlockettus · 6 years
Text
How to Catch World Cup Fever
One billion people watched the last World Cup final, roughly 10 times more than the Super Bowl. (Photo: riciardus/pixhere)
Our latest Freakonomics Radio episode is called “How to Catch World Cup Fever.” (You can subscribe to the podcast at Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or elsewhere, get the RSS feed, or listen via the media player above.)
For soccer fans, it’s easy. For the rest of us? Not so much, especially since the U.S. team didn’t qualify. So here’s what to watch for even if you have no team to root for. Because the World Cup isn’t just a gargantuan sporting event; it’s a microcosm of human foibles and (yep) economic theory brought to life.
Below is a transcript of the episode, modified for your reading pleasure. For more information on the people and ideas in the episode, see the links at the bottom of this post. And you’ll find credits for the music in the episode noted within the transcript.
*      *      *
Roger BENNETT: The World Cup is a global eclipse, it’s been called, that just casts its shadow across the whole world for an entire month at the same time. Everywhere apart from America.
That’s Roger Bennett. What’s he do for a living?
BENNETT: My wife asks me the same question. I sit in front of a television, watch a lot of football and shout at that television thinking it will impact events as they’re unfurling thousands of miles from me.
Bennett grew up in Liverpool. But he’s pretty American by now; in fact, he just became a citizen.
BENNETT: I arrived here right before the 1994 World Cup.
Stephen DUBNER: Ah. You mark it by the World Cups, then. Yes?
BENNETT: My whole life, whenever someone gives me a year, I immediately back it up to the nearest World Cup and I’m able to locate myself, my emotional memory by that nearest World Cup.
Bennett is co-host of Men in Blazers, a podcast-and-TV enterprise devoted to the sport known as … well, it depends. Here’s another Brit-turned-American, Stefan Szymanski:
Stefan SZYMANSKI: Well, everybody in America calls it soccer. And a lot of people think that this is a word that comes from the United States, but actually it’s an English word coined in the 1890’s at Oxford University and up until the 1970’s it was a perfectly acceptable word. However, in recent years, Brits have decided that they think soccer is a terrible word and that you Americans should stop using it and start calling it football instead. And that’s completely absurd.
Okay, back to Roger Bennett. He’s also the host of a new podcast about the 1998 U.S. men’s national team.
BENNETT: One minute, they thought they were going to win the World Cup. The next minute, they were humiliated.”
This new podcast about the old team is called American Fiasco. But even Roger Bennett, a soccer savant, couldn’t have known how well that title would fit this year’s U.S. team. For the first time since 1986, this year’s team failed to qualify for the World Cup finals. This did not go over well in the American soccer community.
Taylor TWELLMAN: This is an utter embarrassment.
In its final qualifier, the U.S. needed only a tie.
TWELLMAN: With the amount of money that’s in Major League Soccer and in this sport, you can’t get a draw? A tie?
It needed a tie against Trinidad and Tobago.
BENNETT: The big takeaway is we should stop playing two countries at the same time. Never again should we play Trinidad and Tobago. One at a time. Let’s take baby steps.
Bennett’s kidding, of course. Trinidad and Tobago is really one country, whose population is about one-sixth of New Jersey’s. So: yes, another American fiasco. Though it may be even worse for the American broadcaster carrying this year’s World Cup. Yes, there are plenty of people in the U.S. who’ll be rooting for France and Mexico; Brazil and Germany; even first-time qualifiers Panama and Iceland. But Fox Sports, without an American team to show during the month-long tournament, has had to figure out a clever way to attract a domestic audience to tune in to foreign teams. So they unleashed a marketing campaign with 23andMe called “Root for Your Roots.” That said, even if you’re an American with little interest in soccer, there are so many reasons to catch World Cup fever this year — and we’ll ask some economists why. Yes, economists.
SZYMANSKI: One reason is that actually probably more people care in developing nations about this national soccer team than the state of the national economy.
Toby MOSKOWITZ: Well, one thing that we looked at was the home-field advantage. And we thought, Well, let’s put it to the data and see if in fact it’s true.
Luigi ZINGALES: If you are in swimming, you need to have a country rich enough to have swimming pools. But in soccer, you can be trained on a piece of dirt with a ball.
And then there’s the fact that, with the tournament held in Russia, several time zones ahead of us, it’s simply a great chance to shake up your daily routine.
BENNETT: What an alluring possibility for any American. You know, if you are in a bar at 7 o’clock in the morning with a Budweiser, society frowns on that, right Stephen?
DUBNER: Yes.
BENNETT: Yeah. But if you’re in that same bar, with that same Budweiser and on the television, Spain are playing Portugal in the opening group game of the World Cup, what are you?
DUBNER: You’re a football fan.
BENNETT: You’re a football fan.
*      *      *
Every four years, soccer teams from across the globe gather to compete for the sport’s biggest trophy, the World Cup. Historically, the Americans have been brilliant, winning three of the past seven World Cups, never finishing worse than third. The American women, that is. The men’s national team? Not so hot. The U.S. has never finished higher than eighth — except for 1930, the very first World Cup, when we finished third. And this year, as noted, we failed to make the 32-team field.
But don’t worry; the rest of the world will hardly notice. The World Cup is a staggering phenomenon: the 2014 men’s final, with Germany beating Argentina in Brazil, was watched by 1 billion people — about 10 times more than a Super Bowl. The sport has been growing in the U.S., among players and fans; attendance at Major League Soccer games last year averaged 22,000. Some people are concerned the American failure to qualify for this year’s World Cup could endanger that growth. Roger Bennett thinks that’s nonsense:
BENNETT: You know, when England do badly, it’s bad. We feel bad. But we live. No one, in the wake of it, is saying, “Oh my god. What’s this going to do to the future of soccer in England?” Italy didn’t qualify for this World Cup, nor Chile, nor did the Netherlands. No one’s been like, “It’s going to affect the popularity of the very game.” I think Americans are going to realize they just love the World Cup for its own sake, not purely because of the self-interest of the American team.
There are, after all, so many story lines in this year’s World Cup:
BENNETT: Ronaldo, Messi, the heroic Icelandic story, the kind of Pro Bowl roster of the Belgian team. Spoiler alert, one of the three winners — Brazil, Spain, or Germany — one of these three is going to win it. You’ve got the African challenge, you got the intricacies of some of the incredibly organized, passionate teams coming from Asia. South Korea: wow.
Another reason to watch: familial bonding. That’s how it works in my house.
SOLOMON Dubner: My name is Solomon Dubner. I am a co-host of Footy for Two and I’m the biggest and youngest benefactor of nepotism in the podcasting world.
Yes, that’s my son.
SOLOMON: Nice to see you.
Footy for Two is the soccer podcast we make together. Basically, Solomon extols the virtues of his favorite club team, Barcelona, and schools me in the intricacies of the world’s most popular sport.
SOLOMON: The 4-4-2 is the traditional, English, direct football formation associated with more physicality than technical ability. In Spain it’s kind of looked down on; the most technical, tactical-intrinsic league.
STEPHEN: It’s looked down as kind of too muscular?
SOLOMON: Lower-class football, not enough brains or technical ability. But Valverde has made it beautiful, I think we were playing beautiful football today…
Anyway, he’s really looking forward to the World Cup.
SOLOMON: I’m 10 for excitement, but I would be a higher 10 or an 11 if the U.S. was in it. In Mother Russia.
STEPHEN: In Mother Russia.
SOLOMON: The homeland.
STEPHEN: Whose homeland?
SOLOMON: I think America’s at this point.
STEPHEN: And who would you say is the outright favorite to win the World Cup?
SOLOMON: There are four teams I put in that category: Spain. They have the pedigree, they have a great team. France. Great team, I think they’re too young. Brazil. They have a great team, great coach named Tite. And then the obvious favorites are Germany. They have a great team. They all know each other well. Joachim Low is a great coach and they are the reigning champions, which could go for or against them.
But Solomon, like Roger Bennett, appreciates the many story lines beyond the winning.
SOLOMON: Iceland is going to be there, which is fun. Everyone probably knows how excited people were about Iceland in the Euros, which we were at: at one game, eight percent of Iceland’s population was in the stadium watching them play. It’s pretty awesome.
Awesome perhaps, but also intriguing. How does Iceland, a country with a population of roughly 330,000 people, make it to the World Cup, when the U.S., with nearly 330 million, doesn’t?
BENNETT: They have hardwired their country to produce phenomenal collective football players. They invested heavily in training facilities. They invested heavily, intentionally, in elite coaching. They have a ridiculous number of elite coaches per capita.
DUBNER: I know the manager of the national team, at least until recently, was also a part-time dentist.
BENNETT: He was. Heimir Hallgrímsson. A very good friend of mine.
DUBNER: Have you ever had him do any work on you?
BENNETT: You know, I’ve watched him do root canal, and I asked him, “Why do you keep, as an international manager, keep doing part-time dentistry?” And he said, “The other managers blow off steam by hunting. Other guys gamble.” He said, “I do root canals.” Like I was a moron.
So Iceland’s presence in the World Cup can be explained by shrewd investment in coaching, and shrewd steam-blowing by its manager. But could it also be explained by economic theory? Stefan Szymanski is one of many economists around the world who study soccer. He’s co-author of the excellent 2009 book Soccernomics — nice title there, friend-o — which has been updated for this World Cup, as well as a new e-book called It’s Football, Not Soccer (and Vice Versa).
DUBNER: I understand you used to write about things like the cost of garbage collection and labor-market hierarchies. Why’d you stop that and how do you get away with this?
SZYMANSKI: Nobody read my papers on garbage collection, as wonderful as they were and everybody seemed interested in any old garbage I write about soccer.
One of Szymanski’s recent papers is called “Convergence vs. The Middle-Income Trap: The Case of Global Soccer.”
SZYMANSKI: So convergence is the idea that poorer countries will end up catching up economically with richer countries simply because they offer, in a sense, better investment opportunities.
DUBNER: So that’s an economic theory, what is the evidence that that theory is at least somewhat true?
SZYMANSKI: Well there’s good evidence at the level of, say the United States itself. So there’s been convergence amongst the states of the United States over more than 100 years. There’s also good support for this amongst developed nations and the nations of the Far East. Where this falls down, though, has tended to be some of the poorer nations, particularly in Africa.
DUBNER: And can you just give a sense of what sort of, I guess, magnitude of convergence or to what degree should convergence be complete?
SZYMANSKI: Well, a lot of countries start a very, very long way behind. So even China, with growth rates of 10 percent-plus for 20-plus years, they’re still considerably poorer on a per-capita basis than the United States. So this is a sort of process that we’re talking about over decades and possibly centuries rather than in terms of 10 years or so.
DUBNER: And you argue that the sector in which convergence between nations seems very, very, very strong is manufacturing.
SZYMANSKI: Right, and one reason for that might be that manufacturing is something that is easily copied and transferred across the world. And often you can buy the equipment and machinery that you need to make it happen. Whereas some of the more intangible things about education and social structures, those things are harder to copy and take much longer to catch up with.
DUBNER: And what does all this have to do with, or have in common with, soccer?
SZYMANSKI: Well, most studies of convergence are about G.D.P. per-capita income. And that’s one of the few statistics for which we have figures for every country in the world going back many decades. And to study convergence, you need many decades of data. What other statistics do we have that would similarly have for all nations of the world? Well, probably the results of international soccer games is the only other thing for which we have complete records going back 60, 70 years.
DUBNER: And so talk about looking at historic G.D.P. data and historical soccer data through the lens of convergence, and what did the results tell you?
SZYMANSKI: Well, first thing to say about comparing soccer data with G.D.P. data is soccer data is way better. It’s far more reliable. We know who won the game and there’s no real argument about that. Whereas G.D.P. — boy, even for developed nations, there’s always some margin of error. But what we found when we looked for convergence in the soccer data was something that has never really been found in the G.D.P. data, which is something called unconditional convergence. Which is just to say, it’s very clear in the data that the countries with the worse results are getting better, are catching up with the countries with the better results, and that’s regardless of any other factors at all. That’s not something you find with G.D.P.
DUBNER: So you’re saying it’s easier to catch up in soccer than in your economy. Why’s that?
SZYMANSKI: One reason is that actually probably more people care in developing nations about this national soccer team than the state of the national economy.
DUBNER: How can that be? I mean, really?
SZYMANSKI: The soccer team is something concrete and real, it’s there on your TV, you’re watching it. Whereas the national economy is a sort of abstract concept. Does anybody come home saying, “Oh I did a great job for the national economy today, I feel really good about that.”
DUBNER: No, but you do come home saying, “I don’t have enough money to pay my light bill,” right?
SZYMANSKI: Right. But that then depends on the nature of the economic structure and the nature of the economic relationships. I think many of these underlying economic conditions have a significant impact on whether you can get goods and services, and most of that is not really relevant to the development of the national soccer team. The players play, you see who the good ones are, they immediately — you don’t get an example where the president of the country pays a bribe so that his son can play on the national soccer team. That’s not the sort of thing that’s going to work.
DUBNER: How does that contribute to soccer being easier to improve?
SZYMANSKI: I think people are focused and if the team does well, they know who’s responsible for that. And likewise, when you do badly, I think it’s difficult to conceal the fact and action must be taken, heads must roll. So there’s a natural process of weeding out poor performance and encouraging good performance. If you want to build a soccer team that’s going to be internationally competitive, you need to find the finest players in your country, and that’s a process of selection that is not quite so trivial, I think. And if you want to see any examples of countries where that’s turned out to prove really challenging, if not impossible, think of India and China.
DUBNER: You know, I wanted to ask you: India and China have a combined population of about 2.7 billion. Neither of them are in this World Cup. China has qualified I think for exactly one World Cup in its history. India has never played in one, and yet they have more people in their countries than the rest of the 32 qualifying teams combined by more than a billion.
SZYMANSKI: So it turns out that having the raw materials is not as simple as it sounds, right? See, it’s certainly true that nations that are more populous tend to win more games than nations that are less populous. But clearly translating that potential into competitive teams is actually a little bit more challenging than one might think.
DUBNER: All right, you’ve found that convergence is happening in soccer, perhaps more robustly than in national economies. So how, if at all, will this inform the way you watch the World Cup and perhaps should inform the way the rest of us watch it?
SZYMANSKI: Well, one of the things I think is firstly, take account of the economic characteristics of the nations that are competing. Those disparities matter and that has an effect on what the likely outcome will be. But then also think about who’s getting better and who the dark horses might be. So for example one team I would think a lot of us are now looking at this this summer is Egypt, which is, again, not a team that has traditionally done that well, obviously an African nation as well. But they look like they are producing quite a lot of good players. But I think we’ll see some interesting teams like that come through, and perhaps produce some surprising results.
International soccer is, historically, full of surprising results. Including the very site of the World Cup, and how the site is chosen by FIFA, the sport’s international governing body. The 2022 tournament, for example, will be held in Qatar, a tiny country with a nominal soccer presence and a summer climate so inhospitable that the tournament had to be shifted to wintertime, which will disrupt league calendars around the world. Very curious. And what about this year’s site, Russia? It’s not on the list of most brotherly nations these days. How did it get the World Cup?
SZYMANSKI: Well I’d, like to tell you a lot in great detail about this, but the computers on which all the records of their bid were stored were mysteriously lost by the Russians when FIFA conducted an investigation into alleged corruption surrounding the bids, and Russia was one of the few countries acquitted of any corruption largely because all the evidence had been destroyed. Most people believe that Russia secured this by corrupt means. That certainly wouldn’t be a first. We know pretty much corruption took place in securing the 2010, 2006 World Cups and even more the 2022 World Cup which is due to take place in Qatar.
FIFA is infamous for cronyism and corruption on a grand scale. Occasionally, this leads to repercussions.
CBC broadcaster: Charges and arrest of FIFA officials. Fourteen people including high-ranking officials, leaders of regional bodies. In total, 47 different counts that include racketeering and money laundering, and the New York news conference suggested this has been going on for two decades.
SZYMANSKI: There are many forms of corruption which operate in FIFA but in terms of securing the World Cup, usually it seems to have been a matter of money in envelopes at meetings with representatives of small federations. Remember, the Federation of St. Kitts and Nevis has one vote in the FIFA Congress just like the United States or Germany. And hence there are lots of small countries with a lot of power and seemingly people who are less than scrupulous with how they make their decisions.
So the awarding of the World Cup is susceptible to corruption. What about the actual World Cup matches?
Simon KUPER: So I think the World Cup, given that it’s in the grasp of FIFA, is very susceptible to corruption.
That’s Simon Kuper, a Financial Times columnist and Szymanski’s Soccernomics co-author.
KUPER A lot of soccer leagues are susceptible. So in China, or Bulgaria, or Greece, there’s a lot of match-fixing that goes on. And countries really want to win the World Cup. So I do not find it unimaginable that some countries bribe FIFA officials to ensure that they get the right referee and win a World Cup match. In 2002, you know there was this shocking game really, South Korea beat Italy and the referee seemed incredibly biased against Italy.
South Korea, we should say, was a co-host of the 2002 World Cup, along with Japan.
KUPER: He withheld a penalty, he disallowed a good goal, he sent an Italian player off. And I thought, Well, it’s just, you know, referee being swayed by the home crowd, there’s nothing kind of venal about it. But that guy, Byron Moreno, an Ecuadorian, eight years later he was arrested arriving at J.F.K. Airport in New York and found to have a lot of heroin concealed in his underwear. And then I thought, you know what, the guy’s a criminal. So who chose a criminal to officiate a World Cup match to make sure that the hosts won? And that leads you on to the belief — I’m not normally a conspiracy theorist, but I do think that there is quite a bit of skullduggery in World Cups. The easiest way to fix a result is to find a compliant referee.
DUBNER: Now, presumably, one easy way to get around that would be to assign referees, let’s say, last minute and/or secretly, yes?
KUPER: There is a bit of that. But you might have a powerful guy who says, “Look, I really want to know who the referee is going to be, tell me. And you tell him and then he finds the referee, etc. You can also fix teams because there’s an enormous amount of money bet on every single World Cup match. So it’s worth the match fixer’s while to bribe a team to lose or to achieve a certain score. Often the bribe will be: “You must lose by three goals or more. And here is $20,000 for each of you to make that happen.” This can be appealing to journeyman players in some of the weaker teams who probably know, “Well, we’re going to lose that game anyway,“ or, “We’re already knocked out of the World Cup.” So Declan Hill, he’s a Canadian writer, has produced very compelling evidence that Brazil’s three-nil victory over Ghana in 2006 was fixed. The Brazilian players knew nothing about it, but Hill writes with quite a lot of evidence that some Ghanaian players were fixed to lose by three.
There’s also the issue of how the World Cup bracket is drawn up, especially which group a team gets placed into for the first round. This has a big effect on that team’s likelihood of advancing into the later rounds. Consider this year’s draw:
KUPER: Russia’s first-round group — Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt — has been calculated as I think the weakest first-round group in the history of the tournament. Is it an amazing coincidence? Or did somebody take care of that?
BENNETT: They organized the groups by pulling balls out of pots.
Roger Bennett again.
BENNETT: And then they organized which four teams play against each other in which cities in which order. My partner in Men in Blazers, Michael Davies, cut his teeth on quiz games, working with the great Merv Griffin, and Davo always says, at this stage in our technological reality, if you’re still using balls for any kind of a draw — be it a lottery draw or a World Cup draw — you’re doing it for a reason, and that reason is to fix the draw. You can heat the balls. You can freeze the ball so when they’re to the human touch, “Oh yes, and Russia, oh my lord, is in the easiest group!”
DUBNER: If Russia were to win the World Cup, what would you say are the odds that someone intervened with a briefcase of cash, a loaded weapon, etc., etc.?
BENNETT: Russia are a hapless, pathetic soccer team. I’m saying that as a guy born in England. I know hapless, pathetic soccer teams because England more often than not fit into that category. The World Cup is an incredibly grinding tournament where you need tenacity. You need skill. You need incredible leadership. You need elements of luck. Of the 17 things you need to win it, Russia has maybe two, arguably, and I’m being very very kind. They will not win it. And if they do win, in your crazy scenario — I think America is more likely to win the 2018 World Cup than Russia.
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Luigi Zingales is a professor of finance at the University of Chicago. Among his specialties: the effect of corruption and cronyism on the economy. He’s also a soccer fan; has been since he was a kid.
ZINGALES: In fact I cried when my favorite team lost a derby, and my mother banned me to watch soccer for a year as a punishment.
For Zingales, one appeal of the sport is how egalitarian it is.
ZINGALES: If you are in swimming, you need to have a country rich enough to have swimming pools because otherwise you can’t really compete effectively. But in soccer, you can be trained on a piece of dirt with a ball and still being a Maradona. And you see the countries like Cameroon or Nigeria, they’re certainly not rich by any standard, but they have phenomenal soccer teams.
We asked Zingales for his view on host-country Russia’s weak first-round opposition in this year’s World Cup.
ZINGALES: If there are rules that allow the hosting team to choose its opponents, that’s fine, as long as they’re transparent. But if they are done by the people inside the organization, it’s not fine, and it’s set up a tone at the top that will reverberate down the line. And I think that this is the problem with the soccer organization in my view.
So Zingales is no fan of FIFA. But his antipathy has an economic angle.
ZINGALES: Soccer is so popular around the world that there’s basically no comparison in terms of sport. And has a caché, a brand value, really, really difficult to tarnish. In fact, in spite of all the scandals we’ve read about, people still love soccer and it’s not very much affected. So I think that having a monopoly of that size with no real controls, because the organization is not really accountable to anybody in a serious way, I think inevitably leads to favoritism and some form of institutional corruption. Whether this takes the form of explicit violation of the rules, or takes the form of an extreme favoritism at some level is irrelevant. The point is that it’s not a fair game. And for a game that would like to be fair and for a game as I said as the beauty of being intrinsically a fairly level playing-field game, having the organization that is unfair is I think a capital crime.
By this time, we’ve probably made you fairly suspicious that there will be some shadiness in at least a few World Cup matches. Especially involving the Russian team. But let’s say the Russian team — or some other team — does do much better than expected, or does have a referee’s call go their way. Is that necessarily the result of corruption or cronyism? Maybe not. For this, we turn to yet another soccer-loving economist.
MOSKOWITZ: I’m Toby Moskowitz. I’m a professor of finance and economics at Yale University.
DUBNER: Yes, so you have won a really prestigious academic award as one of the top finance scholars in the world. Why do you mess around with sports?
MOSKOWITZ: It’s called tenure. They can’t fire me. So, a lot of what I study is behavioral economics, and how people make decisions when faced with a lot of uncertainty. Sports is just a really rich field to look at those kinds of things.
Moskowitz is co-author of a book called Scorecasting, which takes an empirical look at some of the standard decision-making in sports. In basketball, does it really make sense to bench your star player if he’s in foul trouble? In football, does it really make sense to punt on 4th and 1 from your own 40? How about icing the kicker — does that work? And does defense really win championships, like the cliché says? In a lot of cases, Moskowitz found, the conventional wisdom turns out to be not so wise. We’ll hear more about that in a whole sports series we’re just starting to work on now. But some conventional wisdom is pretty true.  
MOSKOWITZ: Well one thing that we looked at was the home-field advantage. This is talked about throughout sports and almost every sport. And we thought, “Well, let’s put it to the data and see if in fact it’s true.” And that’s something that is true not only in every sport but every sport no matter where it’s played, what country, and throughout history over time. So that is true, that is a fact. There is a strong home-field advantage.
Truth be told, this wasn’t so hard to figure out. You basically look at a team’s winning percentage at home versus on the road. There were, however, some interesting wrinkles. For one, there’s a large variance in the size of the advantage among different sports. In baseball, for instance?
MOSKOWITZ: So, slightly better than 50-50. A clear advantage but not a huge one.
But in soccer:
MOSKOWITZ: In soccer, and this is true worldwide — so if you’re looking South American leagues, leagues in Russia, Australia even the U.S. — you’re talking like 65, 67 percent.
This leads to a couple questions. No. 1: why is there such a difference among sports? And No. 2, which might help explain No. 1: what are the causes of home-field advantage? If you are even a little bit a of a sports fan, you’ve likely heard a lot of different explanations. For instance: the enthusiasm of the fans improves the performance of the athletes.
MOSKOWITZ: This is I think the No. 1 thing that most fans think when they think of the home-field advantage, which is, their adrenaline increases because the fans are pumping them up. Conversely if you’re on the road, people are yelling terrible things at you, questioning the chastity of your sister and your mother and all kinds of things.
So how solid is this theory?
MOSKOWITZ: Doesn’t seem to be true.
And what’s the evidence that fan enthusiasm isn’t driving home-field advantage?
MOSKOWITZ: So take basketball. You look at free-throw shooting, where you take everything else out of the game. There’s no defense. The referees are removed at that point as well. The player’s at the free throw line. The only interaction is between a crowd that’s either dead silent and hoping you’ll hit the free throw if you’re the home player, or there’s screaming, banging those thunder sticks. And what we find is in professional sports and college sports, the same player shoots exactly the same percentage at the free-throw line whether he is on the road or at home. Just doesn’t seem to have an effect.
How about the idea that teams are built to take advantage of their home field, like stacking a baseball team with left-handed sluggers if the stadium has a shallow right-field wall?
MOSKOWITZ: We just didn’t find any evidence of it.
How about the weather? Like when teams from warm-weather cities have to play in the cold? Nope; no evidence of that either. Okay, how about the effects of travel itself — not sleeping as well or eating as well. To test this idea, Moskowitz looked at games where the traveling team doesn’t actually travel.
MOSKOWITZ: My favorite example is when the Lakers play the Clippers. They play in the same stadium. The only difference is they change the decals on the court and the season-ticket holders who are there. If you look at those same-city games, versus games where, let’s say, you’ve got Miami traveling to Seattle, there’s just no difference in the home-field advantage.
So what does account for home-field advantage? Moskowitz did find that in certain circumstances — back-to-back road games in the N.B.A., for instance — fatigue does matter.
MOSKOWITZ: On the second night, if you played the previous night, your chances of winning go from say — let’s say there are two even teams, so it’s 50-50; it would drop to about 36 percent.
But that effect, Moskowitz found, can only explain 10 or 15 percent of the home-field advantage in those cases. So what’s the real story? Here’s the real story.
MOSKOWITZ: In 2007, there were a couple of soccer riots — well, as there typically are in Europe. This happened to occur in Italy, and the Italian government banned fans from 21 matches. And a couple of Swedish economists collected the data and examined the home-field advantage in these 21 games where there were literally no fans. All there were were coaches, players and the referees. And what they found was, that the home-field advantage all but disappeared, when the fans were gone. But what was interesting is the players didn’t play any better or worse. Their accuracy of passes, their mistakes, their tackles, their fouls — all those things were about the same. So whether the fans were there or not, these players weren’t affected.
DUBNER: So this would seem to pose a riddle. You’re saying home-field advantage does exist in all sports. It’s highest in soccer but in a kind of natural experiment in which fans were banned, the home-field advantage essentially disappeared. Which would seem to suggest that the fans are influencing the game somehow. But I guess not in the way that we might typically think — is that what you’re getting at?
MOSKOWITZ: That’s exactly right. That basically the fans had a marked impact on the success of the home team, yet the home players didn’t seem to play any worse when the fans weren’t there. Nor do they seem to play any better when the fans were there. So what’s going on? Well there’s really only one other participant who could possibly be influenced by the fans and that is the referee.
Now to state something like that obviously sounds controversial, and you better provide some proof. So what a couple of economists did was they gathered data on soccer. This was in the Spanish La Liga, and they looked at a very unique feature of soccer games, which was the extra injury time. Now what’s unique about this is it’s a part of the game where the players have literally no influence. This is the point in the game where what the head referee is supposed to do is add up all the substitutions throughout the game, and all the injuries and all the fouls, and add some extra time.
Now what was neat about this was, the data was gathered I think in the 90’s and early 2000’s, and at that time, the head referee did not have to announce how much time he was putting on the clock. It was not posted anywhere and not even the other referees knew what it was. He would just blow his whistle at some point declare the game was over. And what was really interesting is if the home team was behind by one goal, the amount of extra injury time the head referee added was more than twice as large as when the home team was ahead by a goal. And you can see what might be going on here which is, they’re shortening the game to preserve the win for the team. Or they’re lengthening it to give the home team a better chance to tie.
But here’s the thing: Moskowitz isn’t saying that referees are cheating in favor of the home team. Or that they’re even consciously making calls in their favor. It’s subtler than that — more human than that.
MOSKOWITZ: Referees, like anybody, any other human, feels social pressure. Relieving that social pressure is natural and emotionally, you get caught up in the game. They don’t necessarily want the home team to win. I don’t think this is conscious. I don’t think there’s any conspiracy. I think it’s just a natural, “I want to please 50,000 people and I don’t want 50,000 people screaming at me.”
DUBNER: Or worse, we should say.
MOSKOWITZ: Or worse. Yes.
Another piece of evidence in this argument? In soccer, the home-field advantage is cut in half when the game is played in a stadium where the field is surrounded by a running track — that is, where the crowd is farther from the referees. Moskowitz is pretty convinced the referee-bias theory can explain a lot of the home-field advantage effect.
MOSKOWITZ: So I don’t think it’s the whole thing, but I think it’s the largest part.
DUBNER: I’m also curious about the variance in sports — soccer, you mentioned, has the highest home-field advantage. Baseball is the lowest. And for people who follow either of those sports and especially both, they know that the referee or the umpire has, obviously, different functions but also a different amount of leverage. And also there’s a lot less scoring in soccer, and so one pivotal call really can determine the game.
MOSKOWITZ: Absolutely. In soccer, there’s so little scoring that a penalty kick, throwing a player off, any sort of free kick can have a huge impact on the game, and can tilt the odds very significantly in favor of the home team. Whereas, take the other end of the spectrum — baseball, you know, quite honestly most calls in baseball aren’t that close.
DUBNER: You’re telling us that fans don’t influence the outcome of a game in the way that we think — that is, they’re not influencing the players. But you’re also telling us that fans do influence the outcome of the game by influencing referees. So the bottom line is really the same, isn’t it, which is that fans should be as loud and obnoxious and maybe as threatening as possible, right?
MOSKOWITZ: There’s a little bit of that and I hesitate to say that.
DUBNER: I’m not asking you to personally condone violence, but I mean the data are the data yes?
MOSKOWITZ: Well, I think there’s no question that you’re right. The data is the data that on a close call, if fans yell and yell loudly it does tend to influence the referee’s perception.
So that’s something to watch for in the upcoming World Cup: do the referees seem to favor Russia, the home team? Or, this being a World Cup, where fans travel from all over, some games might feel like home games. If you’re the prime minister of, say, Iceland, maybe you pay for the entire citizenry to go to Russia to pack out the stadiums?
MOSKOWITZ: I would argue it’s probably not worth it, but I guess it would depend on the government. I would expect that the costs far exceed the benefits.
We’ve given you several reasons to pay attention to the World Cup. Although we haven’t said much about the actual soccer. The players. The greatest players in the world. And maybe the greatest player in the sport’s history.
Joaquim Maria PUYAL: Messi Messi Messi Messi Messi Messi. Immense Messi.
Lionel Messi is about to turn 31. This will likely be his last World Cup. He’s won every trophy imaginable with his club team, Barcelona. But he’s never won a World Cup with his national team, Argentina.
ANNOUNCER: Argentina’s dream was to win a World Cup. In Brazil, it’s proved just that: a dream.
My son Solomon is a true soccer fanatic. But his adoration of Messi goes beyond that.
SOLOMON: If Argentina wins the World Cup, I am moving to a rural town in Argentina and becoming a shepherd for the rest of my life, because I think that’s what Messi would want.
STEPHEN: Why would he want you to be a shepherd?
SOLOMON: I just think he would.
STEPHEN: Does he have sheep that he needs caring for?
SOLOMON: That he needs shepherded? No I just think I should respect Argentina and him.
STEPHEN: You think that would be the kind of tribute that he would appreciate?
SOLOMON: That would be the perfect way.
I asked Solomon for some biographical background.
SOLOMON: It’s going to have a little bit of a stalkerish detail, is that okay? So on June 24, 1987, in Rosario, Argentina. There was a huge tree in the middle of town. There was a huge storm and lightning struck it. And from the tree emerged the god that is Lionel Andres Messi. As a child he had a growth deficiency. He would have ended up being 5’1” or 5’2”. Except he was an unbelievable soccer player. When he was diagnosed, he started taking growth hormones. His club, Newell’s Old Boys, they couldn’t really afford it. His family, I think, sought out the attention of scouts in Barcelona, where he happened to have family. They almost didn’t sign him because of his height. But then they realized he was pretty good anyway. And they started paying for his medicine. That was one of the main reasons he went.
STEPHEN: Wow. He was how old at this time?
SOLOMON: He was 12 or 13. Originally his whole family moved, but then they couldn’t do it, so he just he and his father stayed. And he grew up in La Masia, Barcelona’s famed youth academy.
STEPHEN: So it’s an academy where you obviously—
SOLOMON: You live right by the Comp Nou, the stadium. You can it see out your window.
STEPHEN: Wow.
SOLOMON: La Masia I think means “farmhouse,” is what I want to say. It’s in an old farmhouse. So it’s where Barcelona raises the next generation of football warriors.
STEPHEN: Do you go to school as well?
SOLOMON: You do. I’ve heard it gives you a pretty decent education, actually.
STEPHEN: Who are some of his classmates, yeah?
SOLOMON: Mainly Gerard Piqué and Cesc Fabregas. They thought they were going to be able to bully him at first, on the pitch. And he said they were getting ready to kick the crap out of him, and then he got the ball and they just couldn’t get near him. The rest is history and he’s probably gone on to become the greatest player of all time.
STEPHEN: It sounds as though part of the appreciation is almost an artistic appreciation.
SOLOMON: He’s beautiful to watch. I wouldn’t call him graceful necessarily. I think elegant maybe, but it’s breathtaking to watch. How he doesn’t look like an athlete. He’s 5’7”, he’s a little stocky. But when he’s with the ball and he’s running at an opponent, you can tell they’re terrified. That’s not necessarily the artistic part, but what he does. It’s so beautiful. There’ll be two defenders and there’s no space, he just squeezes himself and the ball through. I think part of that is actually his height. It gives him the ability to twist. But it’s really — he’s beautiful to watch.
BENNETT: He’s the single greatest footballer I have ever seen.
Roger Bennett again.
BENNETT: Amazing. He looks like he’s just wandered out of your local SuperCuts. And to understand him you have to know about his nemesis: Ronaldo.
DUBNER: Who is the opposite in every way.
BENNETT: So Ronaldo, Portugal captain. The two of them, it’s like LeBron and Steph Curry. You know, which is the greatest player? Both of them have completely different attributes, different physical styles of play. Ronaldo is physically beautiful.
DUBNER: He seems to be allergic to wearing shirts after goal-scoring.
BENNETT: I often think he doesn’t enjoy scoring goals in their own sake, they’re just stages for him to rip his shirt off, show the world his nipples. Ronaldo. It’s a truly remarkable thing. He is a sculpture of a man. Dominant. Beautiful. I mean, potent is the word.
DUBNER: And a good goal scorer. But Lionel Messi, you’re saying, is a better player because not only does he often outscore Ronaldo but what else does Messi do?
BENNETT: When he takes to the field, a combination of his vision, his ability to accelerate at incredible pace into crevices of space that really no one else sees, leaving behind only smoking cleats where defenders once were, just vaporizes opponents, his ability to compute angle, wind speed, traject— I mean he has a beautiful mind in there. The way he finishes goals: rarely smashing the ball home. It’s always with just enough effort, just enough power. Only what it needs. The great Uruguayan poet and social critic Eduardo Galeano described him, he said, “Lionel Messi runs with the ball as if he’s wearing it as a sock.” No one else can take it from him and he scores stunning goals with routine, for Barcelona, under great pressure, delivering over and over and over again.
KUPER: Soccer is really a dance in space.
Simon Kuper again.
KUPER When you have the ball, you try to open space, and when you don’t have the ball you have to try to close space. You do that not as an individual but as part of an 11-player team. And so the players who have the best sense of space, and Messi is a great example, are the best players.
But there are a couple things to consider. First: the World Cup features national teams whose players spend most of their time spread all over the globe on their club teams. Which means it’s hard for national teams to have a lot of cohesion for the World Cup. But also: soccer is played differently in different leagues, on different continents. There are, for instance, distinct European characteristics and South American characteristics. Messi, coming from Argentina and playing for Barcelona, exhibits both.
KUPER: So when Messi gets the ball in Barcelona’s close, short-passing moves, he can say to the defender trying to mark him, “Look, I can post to these four guys near me, or I can dribble and shoot. You have no idea which of these five options I’m going to choose.” And so he’s terrifying. And Messi, what I always tell my children is Messi doesn’t pass into somebody’s feet. Messi doesn’t pass where you are. Messi passed into the space where he wants to you be. So usually Messi gives the ball into a space and the teammate runs onto it, unmarked, and scores. So Messi has seen the space and told the teammates, in effect, “That’s the space.”
DUBNER: So that ability, if I put two and two together, I would think would be devalued in a World Cup because his teammates are not as accustomed to thinking about being in the space where they’re not yet. Am I right?
KUPER: Yeah. I mean Argentine players have a much weaker sense of space partly because the Latin Americans, they didn’t grow up in that European tradition and they’re just not as good. I mean there’s several of the guys who played alongside him in 2014 that, had they won the World Cup final, people would have said, “That guy won a World Cup final?” And you know it’s an amazing achievement of Messi’s. He’s often criticized in Argentina. But it’s amazing that he got those players into a World Cup final.
DUBNER: So let’s say that someone doesn’t watch a lot of soccer — maybe they’ve heard about Lionel Messi, maybe seen some highlights but never really seen him play — how would you advise that they watch him during this World Cup?
KUPER: Well, watch him knowing that he’s handicapped by the team he’s in. But Argentina have typically said to him in effect, “Here’s the ball. You do it alone.” Messi thinks, “Well I can do that, but I’m a team player so I need people moving around me to offer decoys even if I don’t pass to them.” And so when they give him the ball 50 meters from the opposition’s goal and the whole Argentine team standing still and Messi isolated, he’s kind of stuck. So, typically for Argentina, because they don’t have a system, he dribbles. So what you see at World Cups is much more Messi the soloist and not Messi the team player. You won’t see him as the interpreter of space. You’ll see him as the kind of brilliant soloist.
BENNETT: The last three big tournaments he’s played, he’s got his team to the final. But, it’s like watching LeBron. It’s like an unbelievable player and the rest of the cast, they underperform around him and they delegate, like they just wait for him to do magic and he’s got them to the final of the last World Cup, the final of the last two Copas. They both — all three of them have ended both in defeat and with him in tears.
SOLOMON: He’s a big-game player. But I think it’s been proven, one player can’t win a World Cup. It’s just not possible. And I think that’s why he hasn’t and that’s why I don’t think he will. I don’t think Argentina is going to win it.
There’s one more thing to watch for in this year’s World Cup even if you have absolutely zero interest in soccer. It’s not every day that a massive global event takes place in a country that’s considered, in many quarters, to be some combination of dictatorship, rogue state, and pure bully. How’s that going to play out? We called the Stanford political scientist Michael McFaul, who knows a bit about geopolitics and Russia.
Michael McFAUL: I spent five years in the government during the Obama Administration — three years as the senior director at the National Security Council responsible for Russia and Eurasia and then two more years in Moscow as the U.S. ambassador there.
Given that Russians love soccer, delivering the World Cup was a major coup for Vladimir Putin.
McFAUL: For Putin, the World Cup is a victory both domestically and internationally. On the one hand that he is delivering this fantastic sporting event to his citizens. That is a great achievement and he will be loved for it. But then too internationally I do think it delivers a positive message for Russia because I think a lot of the world has a very outdated image of Russia as this thuggish, criminal place where everybody’s living in poverty, and that’s not what you’re going to see on television during the World Cup. Russia today is richer probably than it’s ever been in its history. And so fans visiting Moscow or St. Petersburg or the other venues, even some of the more obscure venues, for the first time are going to see that Russia is a wealthy European country.
Russia was awarded this World Cup back in 2010.
McFAUL: Well, the world has changed remarkably, between 2010 and today with respect to Russia’s relationship with the West. Starting with Ukraine, annexation of Crimea, then bolstering a dictator like Mr. Assad in Syria where, you know, countless tens of thousands have been killed and millions displaced. And then meddling in the U.S. election. And now, you know, alleged assassination attempts in the U.K. So I think the context has changed dramatically and I think the challenge therefore for the western and I would say the global community is how do you show up and participate in a sporting event that everybody loves — including me by the way, we all want to see the World Cup succeed — but without somehow giving legitimacy to many of those things that I just described in terms of Putin’s foreign policy behavior.
McFaul’s solution? He’s advocated that no government official from any NATO country should attend the World Cup.
McFAUL: I don’t understand why governments from anywhere should be involved. This is a sporting event. It’s not a United Nations event. I think we should get out of the business of using sporting events for diplomatic ends and just let the athletes do their thing and let the fans do their thing and keep the politics out of it.
Some countries, including England and Iceland, have decided to not send delegations.
BENNETT: Part of me is surprised that the world is not talking about boycotting the whole event —
Roger Bennett again, from Men in Blazers.
BENNETT: — because ultimately the World Cup’s got a dreadful history, Stephen, a dreadful history of prostituting itself to the propaganda desires of awful dictators, going back to Mussolini in the 1930’s. The Argentinean military junta in 1978, a devastating moment for anyone that cares about democracy, justice, human rights. Russia is a rogue state. And the world is going to go there for an entire month with Vladimir Putin presiding over it.
Bennett recently had Garry Kasparov on his show.
BENNETT: Huge Russian football fan and political dissident.
And Bennett said to Kasparov:
BENNETT: I was like, “What are, you know, you are an activist. You are speaking out. What do you want us to do?” He said, “I would never tell anyone to boycott the World Cup. You cannot boycott the World Cup.” There is a massive chance that this could be a World Cup, a great cacophony. And these stadia over four time zones and many have been flung together.
At the last major tournament, the Euros, the Russian fans, a plague of far-right, Nazi-infused, U.F.C.-trained football hooligans — I come from a nation that’s provided the gold standard of football hooligans. These Russians are next-level football hooligans. They ran through English fans with hammers and GoPros. They filmed everything, and they devastated, they maimed, and absolutely destroyed an entire town over a period of 24 hours. Putin’s response to that has been to bring in platoons of Cossacks on horseback with whips and have them police these stadia. Cossacks.
You’ve got your hooligans. You’ve got your stadiums that are unready. You’ve got your English fans descending for which they built Soviet-style enormous drunk tanks. They’ve legalized heroin and cocaine around the stadia and you’ve got Cossacks with whips on horseback. What could possibly possibly go wrong?
DUBNER: But it’s remarkable though, you’re saying that Kasparov says, essentially, that “I’m sorry for all that misery, for all those malign intentions, etc. Football is just too intoxicatingly attractive to actually shut it down.” What does that say, I mean it’s, to me it says more about football than it does about geopolitics, in a strange way.
BENNETT: I’m not arguing with it.
DUBNER: Yeah.
BENNETT: I’m not arguing with, “don’t take away my World Cup,” Garry Kasparov.
And thus are the complicated, conflicted, miserable, jubilant, ethereal, and occasional primal emotions that accompany the world’s most worldly sport. May you watch it in good health. And if you choose not to watch — well, check out Roger Bennett’s American Fiasco podcast, or the Footy for Two podcast; or the fine books Soccernomics and Scorecasting; or Michael McFaul’s new book: From Cold War to Hot Peace: An American Ambassador in Putin’s Russia. Or, how about this option: you can start making plans to attend the 2026 World Cup — in America! That’s right: it’s just been announced that a joint bid by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico has been selected by FIFA for the 2026 World Cup. With 60 of the 80 matches to be played here in America. Anyone need a floor to sleep on in New York? Give me a shout.
Freakonomics Radio is produced by WNYC Studios and Dubner Productions. This episode was produced by Matt Frassica with help from Greg Rosalsky, Joel Meyer, and Eliza Lambert. Our staff also includes Alison Hockenberry, Stephanie Tam, Merritt Jacob, Max Miller, Harry Huggins, and Andy Meisenheimer. You can subscribe to Freakonomics Radio on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Here’s where you can learn more about the people and ideas in this episode:
SOURCES
Roger Bennett, host of American Fiasco and co-host of Men in Blazers.
Solomon Dubner, host of Footy for Two.
Simon Kuper, Financial Times writer and co-author of Soccernomics.
Michael McFaul, professor of political science at Stanford University.
Toby Moskowitz, professor of finance at the Yale School of Management and co-author of Scorecasting.
Stefan Szymanski, professor of economics at the University of Michigan and co-author of Soccernomics.
Luigi Zingales, professor of finance at the University of Chicago.
RESOURCES
Soccernomics (2018 World Cup Edition): Why England Loses; Why Germany, Spain, and France Win; and Why One Day Japan, Iraq, and the United States Will Become Kings of the World’s Most Popular Sport, by Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski (2018).
It’s Football, Not Soccer (And Vice Versa): On the History, Emotion, and Ideology Behind One of the Internet’s Most Ferocious Debates, by Stefan Szymanski and Silke-Maria Weineck (2018).
From Cold War to Hot Peace: An American Ambassador in Putin’s Russia, by Michael McFaul (2018).
“With U.S. Out of World Cup, Fox Sports and 23andMe Help Stateside Fans Find Rooting Interest,” by Anthony Crupi (AdAge, April 5, 2018).
“Convergence vs. The Middle Income Trap: The Case of Global Soccer,” by Melanie Krause and Stefan Szymanski (Dec., 2017).
“FIFA: Computer-Destroying Russian Bid Committee Did Nothing Corrupt,” by Tom Ley (Deadspin, June 27, 2017).
“Sixteen Additional FIFA Officials Indicted for Racketeering Conspiracy and Corruption,” (U.S. Department of Justice, Dec. 3, 2015).
“Why has Sepp Blatter resigned as Fifa president?” by Josh Halliday (The Guardian, June 2, 2015).
“Fifa officials pocketed $150m from ‘World Cup of fraud’ – US prosecutors,” by Rupert Neate (The Guardian, May 27, 2015).
Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won, by Toby Moskowitz and L. Jon Wertheim (2012).
“Interview with Match-Fixing Investigator Declan Hill,” (Sept. 1, 2008).
EXTRAS
American Fiasco.
Men in Blazers.
Footy For Two.
“Lionel Messi The 10 GREATEST Goals Ever.”
“Cristiano Ronaldo Top 10 Unimaginable Goals.”
The post How to Catch World Cup Fever appeared first on Freakonomics.
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