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[ofmdresearch]

Why Do We Like Izzy Hands? (Survey Report)

At this point this is probably considered to be fandom history, but better late than never, right?

“Why Do We Like Izzy Hands?” survey report is finally published! The PDF version is available on the Our Flag Means Research website.

The text portion of the report is also available on AO3.

[ofmdresearch]

How Did Season 2 Affect the Numbers of OFMD fanfiction on AO3

An overall view of the total change between 30 Aug and 29 Nov 2023.

Comparison between 2 weeks post-teaser and 2 weeks post-trailer.

Weekly changes are observed between 14 Sep and 29 Nov 2023.

The report also looks into how the most popular ship tags fared during this time.

The PDF is available on the Our Flag Means Research website.

The data was collected and the report was written by @carduelis-carduelis

[ofmdresearch]

Ship Tags and Ratings of OFMD Fanfiction on AO3 (2023 Rerun)

A year ago @carduelis-carduelis looked into the most popular OFMD ship tags on AO3.

Because comparing data is fun, there's now a follow-up / rerun study so that we can see how things have changed since last year. The new data sets are from 30 August and 29 November 2023.

The PDF is available on Our Flag Means Research website.

[ofmdresearch]

Tikli's currently working on the follow-up report to the "Ship Tags and Ratings of OFMD Fanfiction on AO3" (https://ofmdresearch.neocities.org/PDF/ship_tags_and_ratings.pdf), so there's going to be a comparison between 25 November 2022, 30 August 2023 and 29 November 2023. Hopefully it will be done before Christmas, but no promises 😅

A while back, when there was concurrent ship discourse on Twitter and Tumblr, I started looking at the AO3 statistics for OFMD to get a sense of what the actual proportions are of different ships. The basic stats are pretty clear from the sorting sidebar:

Blackbeard | Edward Teach/Stede Bonnet (12321)

Blackbeard | Edward Teach/Israel Hands (2269)

Black Pete/Lucius Spriggs (1561)

Blackbeard | Edward Teach/Stede Bonnet/Israel Hands (1411)

Oluwande Boodhari/Jim Jimenez (1394)

Stede Bonnet/Israel Hands (976)

Israel Hands/Lucius Spriggs (839)

Blackbeard | Edward Teach & Israel Hands (677)

Israel Hands/"Calico" Jack Rackham (474)

Minor or Background Relationships (283) (label not appearing in pie chart)

However! There's a significant amount of overlap with some of these. Pete/Lucius and Jim/Olu are common side ships to Ed/Stede, for instance - 327 fics are tagged with only Ed/Stede and Pete/Lucius (23% of the Pete/Lucius tag), 195 fics are tagged with only Ed/Stede and Olu/Jim (14% of the Olu/Jim tag), and 749 fics are tagged with Ed/Stede, Pete/Lucius, and Olu/Jim (48% of the Pete/Lucius tag and 54% of the Olu/Jim tag).

It's also common for fics with Ed/Stede/Izzy to tag one or more of the two-person ships that make up the triad - 378 (27% of the Steddyhands total) include all four ships, and each of the side ships have 600-700 fics that overlap with Steddyhands in some way. As best as I can tell from careful inclusions and exclusions in the filters, there are 11,106 fics that are just Ed/Stede and not the other three, 1,113 that are just Ed/Izzy, 456 that are just Ed/Stede/Izzy, and 248 that are just Stede/Izzy.

So then I went in and tried to find the data for fics with each of the ships as the only pairing out of the group (italics indicate that the label wouldn't generate because the slice was so small, but this is the order they appear in in the chart):

Blackbeard | Edward Teach/Stede Bonnet (9294)

Blackbeard | Edward Teach/Israel Hands (898)

Black Pete/Lucius Spriggs (214)

Blackbeard | Edward Teach/Stede Bonnet/Israel Hands (426)

Oluwande Boodhari/Jim Jimenez (320)

Stede Bonnet/Israel Hands (236)

Israel Hands/Lucius Spriggs (411)

Blackbeard | Edward Teach & Israel Hands (160)

Israel Hands/"Calico" Jack Rackham (279)

Minor or Background Relationships (31)

This isn't perfect - there's no way to filter main vs. background ships, so there's no way for me to differentiate between an Ed/Stede fic with Lucius/Pete and Olu/Jim tagged for background mentions and an Olu/Jim fic with Lucius Pete and Ed/Stede tagged for background mentions; there are also even smaller ships that come into play once I cropped out the heavy hitters. However, I think this data gives a clearer picture of authorial priorities on AO3.

[ofmdresearch]

New Single Chapter Fics Under the OFMD Tag on AO3, comparing 2022 & 2023 / S1 & S2

The number of new single chapter fics under the OFMD tag on AO3 has been under observation since July. It's time to wrap this up and post the finalised graphs:

Weekly new single chapter fics (1 July - 1 December 2022 and 2023)

Daily new single chapter fics (September-November 2022 and 2023)

Daily new single chapter fics (3 weeks during and 5 weeks after S1 & S2)

Multichapter fics were not counted since it's difficult to get that data from AO3. Also, multichapter fics aren't necessarily as good at reflecting the level of "acute inspiration" as single chapter fics.

The data was collected by Tikli on 3 December 2023.

First, let's look at the weekly data during the 22 week observation period (1 July - 1 December 2022 and 2023).

The total number of new fics during the observation period was 5,000 (weekly average 227) in 2022 and 5,272 in 2023 (5.4% more than the previous year; weekly average 240).

In July and August 2022, the number of weekly new fics was clearly higher than in 2023.

In September, the difference between years wasn't as clear; first half of the month had more new fics in 2023 and the second half had more new fics in 2022.

Kinktober caused a spike in the numbers at the beginning of October both years.

In 2022, the numbers declined rapidly after the first week of October and in November, the weekly numbers were below the weekly average. After the first week of October, there were more weekly new fics in 2023 than in 2022.

In 2023, season 2 aired on 5 October and the weekly numbers grew each week during the season. The numbers declined the week after the finale aired, and in November, they were below the lowest week of October. During the last two weeks of November 2023, the weekly numbers were below the weekly average.

Highest weekly number in 2022 was 485 (30 Sep - 6 Oct). In 2023, it was 581 (21-27 Oct, the week when the final episode aired).

Lowest weekly number in 2022 was 142 (25 Nov - 1 Dec). In 2023, it was 84 (1-7 Jul).

Next, let's take a closer look at the daily numbers during September-November 2022 and 2023.

The total number of new fics during the observation period was 2,906 (daily average 32) in 2022 and 4,160 (43% more than the previous year; daily average 46) in 2023.

In September, the lines of both years are overlapping (between 13 and 47, daily average 25 in 2023 and 26 in 2022). After S2 trailer on 14 Sep there’s a noticeable spike in the numbers.

S2 aired between 5-26 October. During the same period in 2022, the number of daily fics was between 27 and 73 (daily average 45). During the airing of S2 the daily number was between 55 and 102 (daily average 72).

After the finale of S2 (27 Oct -30 Nov), the numbers decline rapidly, ranging between 17 and 100 (daily average 45). During the same period in 2022, daily number was between 12 and 45 (daily average 24).

After mid-November, the lines of both years start overlapping again (between 12 and 47, daily average 31 in 2023 and 20 in 2022).

Finally, let's compare the number of daily new single chapter fics during the three weeks when seasons were airing and during the five weeks after the season finale.

Season 1 started streaming on 3 March 2022 and Season 2 on 5 October 2023. New episodes aired weekly on Thursdays and the final episode aired three weeks after the season started.

The total number of new single chapter fics during the observation period was 3,088 in 2022 and 3,164 in 2023 (2.5% more than the previous year)

During the three weeks when the new season was airing (counting the air date of the final episode), the daily average of new fics was 7 in 2022 and 72 in 2023.

During the five weeks after the final episode, the daily average of new fics was 84 in 2022 and 45 in 2023.

The highest daily number in 2022 was 125 fics 17 days after the finale aired. In 2023, the highest daily number was 102 fics on the day the finale aired.

The lowest daily number after the finale of season 1 was 56 fics the next day after the finale. After the finale of season 2, the lowest daily number was 17 fics three weeks after the finale aired.

Five weeks after the final episode, the number of daily new fics was 68 in 2022 and 25 in 2023.

[ofmdresearch]

Continuing on this and sharing a look into the length of works under the OFMD tag on AO3.

And here’s a closer look of the word count of longer completed works (at least 20,000 words) and how many works of specific length are in each group.

The longest single chapter work is 63,403 words long. The longest multichapter work is 700,819 words long.

Completed Works and WIPs Under the OFMD Tag on AO3

It’s a bit tricky to get specific data of fic numbers from AO3, but after doing some digging, here's a graph to illustrate the monthly numbers of completed OFMD fics and also how the number of WIPs has changed since the show aired in March 2022.

The number of single chapter works is needed in order to count the number of completed multichapter works. This data set only covers July-October 2022 and 2023. This is why the purple line in the graph is fragmented.

[ofmdresearch]

The ratio between single chapter and multichapter works is also interesting. Here’s a comparison between July-October in 2022 and 2023.

Based on today’s situation, 15% of all completed works under the OFMD tag on AO3 have multiple chapters.

Completed Works and WIPs Under the OFMD Tag on AO3

It’s a bit tricky to get specific data of fic numbers from AO3, but after doing some digging, here's a graph to illustrate the monthly numbers of completed OFMD fics and also how the number of WIPs has changed since the show aired in March 2022.

The number of single chapter works is needed in order to count the number of completed multichapter works. This data set only covers July-October 2022 and 2023. This is why the purple line in the graph is fragmented.

[ofmdresearch]

Completed Works and WIPs Under the OFMD Tag on AO3

It’s a bit tricky to get specific data of fic numbers from AO3, but after doing some digging, here's a graph to illustrate the monthly numbers of completed OFMD fics and also how the number of WIPs has changed since the show aired in March 2022.

The number of single chapter works is needed in order to count the number of completed multichapter works. This data set only covers July-October 2022 and 2023. This is why the purple line in the graph is fragmented.

[ofmdresearch]

Comparing the number of daily new single chapter fics under the OFMD tag on AO3 during and after seasons 1 and 2.

The observation period starts from the air date of the first episode of the season and ends three weeks after the season finale.

Turns out the final update on daily number of new single chapter fics under the OFMD tag on AO3 wasn’t the final update after all! Here's the current situation, 3 weeks after the finale of S2.

Currently the total number of new fics during the observation period in 2023 is 2.3% more than the previous year.

The highest daily number is 102 fics on the day the finale of S2 aired (26 Oct 2023).

[ofmdresearch]

Turns out the final update on daily number of new single chapter fics under the OFMD tag on AO3 wasn’t the final update after all! Here's the current situation, 3 weeks after the finale of S2.

Currently the total number of new fics during the observation period in 2023 is 2.3% more than the previous year.

The highest daily number is 102 fics on the day the finale of S2 aired (26 Oct 2023).

[ofmdresearch]

Final update on daily number of new single chapter fics under the OFMD tag on AO3 during the July-October observation period in 2022 and 2023. The cumulative number of single chapter fics in 2023 was 5.4% less than in 2022.

The new season did push the numbers up. 55% of 2023 fics were posted in October, compared to 34% of 2022 fics.

The highest daily number of fics was 102 on the day the final episode of S2 aired (26 Oct 2023).

Keeping an eye on how Season 2 of OFMD affects the number of new fanfics on AO3.

Here's a graph showing the number of weekly new fanfics on AO3 since the show started airing. The data was collected by tikli on 16 Sep 2023, using the Work Search on AO3 and searching for fics that were older than X weeks, starting from “> 79 weeks”.

[ofmdresearch]

Time for the weekly update!

The final episode of season 2 aired on 26 October and there were 102 new single chapter fics that day.

Keeping an eye on how Season 2 of OFMD affects the number of new fanfics on AO3.

Here's a graph showing the number of weekly new fanfics on AO3 since the show started airing. The data was collected by tikli on 16 Sep 2023, using the Work Search on AO3 and searching for fics that were older than X weeks, starting from “> 79 weeks”.

[ofmdresearch]

Okay, this method of manual correction doesn’t work properly. The date that’s shown on the search results is the date when the fic was last updated. So, if it’s a multichapter fic that was updated on the day after the target date, it would get subtracted from the cumulative number of fics on the target date.

So, here's a new graph that focuses on single chapter fics only.

When looking into how the new season inspires people to write, single chapter fics might be better at indicating the change, because they are often written more spontaneously than multichapter fics (of course a spontaneous single chapter fic can then turn into a multichapter fic).

Keeping an eye on how Season 2 of OFMD affects the number of new fanfics on AO3.

Here's a graph showing the number of weekly new fanfics on AO3 since the show started airing. The data was collected by tikli on 16 Sep 2023, using the Work Search on AO3 and searching for fics that were older than X weeks, starting from “> 79 weeks”.

[ofmdresearch]

Update on daily numbers of new fics!

The whole dataset has been revised, and there are some slight changes in daily numbers. Previously, the data was collected using AO3’s search with “> xx days” in the date field. Since one day = 24 hour time period, starting from when you run the search, you get different numbers for the same day if you run the search at different time. The data was still collected using the same search, but this time the search results were manually corrected. Each search focused on the number of fics on a specific date, and fics that were posted on the next day didn’t count for that day. For example, when searching on 20 Oct for fics that were older than 1 day, the target date was 18 Oct. The search results had some fics that were posted on 19 Oct, and those did not count for 18 Oct.

Keeping an eye on how Season 2 of OFMD affects the number of new fanfics on AO3.

Here's a graph showing the number of weekly new fanfics on AO3 since the show started airing. The data was collected by tikli on 16 Sep 2023, using the Work Search on AO3 and searching for fics that were older than X weeks, starting from “> 79 weeks”.

[ofmdresearch]

At this point, it’s more interesting to look at the daily numbers of new fics instead of weekly numbers.

The observation period is from the beginning of July to the end of October. The daily fics from 2022 are compared with the daily fics from 2023. Of course we don’t yet know how the rest of the October is going to go, but here’s what it looks like so far.

The Kinktober effect is quite something 😂

Keeping an eye on how Season 2 of OFMD affects the number of new fanfics on AO3.

Here's a graph showing the number of weekly new fanfics on AO3 since the show started airing. The data was collected by tikli on 16 Sep 2023, using the Work Search on AO3 and searching for fics that were older than X weeks, starting from “> 79 weeks”.

[ofmdresearch]

Update with new data from the past two weeks.

No idea what caused the significant drop at the end of September, but the week leading to the premiere of season 2 has been wild. That’s probably thanks to the sneak peek of the first episode we got on 28 September and also the Behind the Scenes we got on 30 September. There were also a lot of fresh review articles.

Keeping an eye on how Season 2 of OFMD affects the number of new fanfics on AO3.

Here's a graph showing the number of weekly new fanfics on AO3 since the show started airing. The data was collected by tikli on 16 Sep 2023, using the Work Search on AO3 and searching for fics that were older than X weeks, starting from “> 79 weeks”.

[ofmdresearch]

This graph has been revised using a new dataset where a week is determined as the time between new episodes: a week starts on a Thursday and ends on a Wednesday. This way it's easier to see the immediate effect of new episodes.

The teaser for S2 of OFMD aired on a Wednesday. The trailer for S2 aired on a Thursday. New episodes of S2 will also air on Thursdays.

Keeping an eye on how Season 2 of OFMD affects the number of new fanfics on AO3.

Here's a graph showing the number of weekly new fanfics on AO3 since the show started airing. The data was collected by tikli on 16 Sep 2023, using the Work Search on AO3 and searching for fics that were older than X weeks, starting from “> 79 weeks”.